Trump speaking, says:Iran's navy is goneAir Force is in ruinsMost of Iran's leaders are deadSituation has been ongoing for 47 years, too longIran is a state sponsor of terrorismGetting close to finishing the job Allies should take the lead in protecting Hormuz, US will helpWhen conflict is over Strait will open up naturally-2-3 week timeline reiterated. If no deal reached going to hit electricitycould hit oilIran is no longer a threatReally nothing new here, no ground war, no imminent withdrawal. -more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Exports surged while imports fell very sharply: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This chatter doing the rounds:Unconfirmed reports (Fautuks Network on twitter / X being cited) citing Fox News suggest Trump may signal the possible use of ground troops to secure Iranian uranium in an upcoming speech, a scenario analysts say would involve complex and high-risk operations.***Update:Faytuks Network deletes earlier post on this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hedge funds hit by worst drawdown in years as volatility forces de-risking.Summary:Hedge funds suffer worst monthly drawdown since January 2022 Fundamental long/short strategies hit hardest across all regions Asia-focused funds lead losses, followed by Europe and US Volatility from Iran war and cross-asset moves drove de-risking Systematic strategies outperform as discretionary funds struggle Global hedge funds endured their worst monthly performance in over four years in March, as heightened volatility tied to the Iran conflict and broader cross-asset dislocations triggered widespread losses across discretionary strategies.According to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data, fundamental long/short equity funds declined by just over 5% on average during the month, marking the steepest drawdown since early 2022. The weakness was broad-based across regions, with Asia-focused funds leading losses, followed by Europe and the United States.The sell-off comes against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, sharp moves in interest rates, currencies and commodities, and increasingly unstable equity factor rotations. These conditions forced hedge funds to rapidly reduce risk, exacerbating losses and exposing crowded positioning across portfolios.Equity markets themselves posted moderate declines over the quarter, but the more significant impact on hedge funds stemmed from positioning and leverage. Funds continued to unwind global equity exposure at the fastest pace in over a decade, with net selling accelerating and short positions outweighing long additions, particularly in North America.Technology, media and telecommunications stocks were among the worst-hit sectors, reflecting broader weakness in growth and high-beta exposures. Larger multi-manager platforms, which typically rely on diversified strategies and higher leverage, saw outsized drawdowns relative to peers, highlighting the vulnerability of “pod shop” models in periods of rapid correlation shifts.In contrast, systematic and quantitatively driven strategies posted gains during the month, benefiting from directional trends and alpha generation independent of broader market declines. This divergence underscores a growing split between discretionary stockpickers and model-driven approaches in volatile environments.Leverage levels remained elevated, hovering near record highs, which amplified the impact of market moves and forced deleveraging. The episode highlights how quickly conditions can deteriorate when volatility rises and correlations spike, even for diversified hedge fund portfolios.Despite the sharp monthly losses, performance across the first quarter remains mixed, with some regions and strategies still in positive territory. However, March’s drawdown serves as a clear reminder of the sensitivity of hedge fund strategies to geopolitical shocks and rapid market regime shifts.---Ackman sees some hope (this posted earlier this week) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tsunami threat issued: M 7.8119 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia Depth 10.0 kmImpacts could extend to shores of Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US deploys low-cost ‘Lucas’ drone inspired by Iranian design in war. Wall Street Journal report (gated)Summary:US deploys low-cost “Lucas” drone built from reverse-engineered Iranian tech Rapid development marks shift toward cheaper, scalable warfare systems Drones used in strikes on Iranian military and IRGC infrastructure Cost efficiency contrasts sharply with traditional US munitions Highlights both progress and gaps in US defence readiness A low-cost attack drone developed by the US military using reverse-engineered Iranian technology is emerging as a defining feature of the current conflict, underscoring a major shift in how modern warfare is being approached.The system, known as the FLM-136 or “Lucas,” was designed in under two years and deployed early in the war, where it has been used in strikes against Iranian military targets, including weapons facilities, drone production sites and air-defence systems. Senior defence officials say the strikes contributed to a sharp decline in Iranian drone activity in the early phase of the conflict.Unlike traditional US defence programs, often characterised by long development cycles and high costs, Lucas reflects a new strategy focused on speed, scale and affordability. The drone, described by former officials as the “Toyota Corolla of drones,” is built to be mass-produced and expendable, with unit costs estimated between $10,000 and $55,000. That compares with legacy systems such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, which cost upwards of $2 million each.The origins of the program trace back to US military planning for a potential conflict with China, where simulations showed that critical munitions stockpiles could be depleted within weeks. In response, defence planners prioritised the development of low-cost, long-range strike systems capable of being produced rapidly and at scale.The Lucas drone was developed by reverse-engineering an Iranian Shahed drone recovered from Ukraine, marking a rare instance of the US adopting adversary technology as a blueprint. The Pentagon has retained intellectual property control, allowing it to tap a broader network of manufacturers to scale production quickly, with multiple firms expected to produce hundreds of units per month.While the system has proven effective in the current theatre, where Iranian air defences are relatively degraded, questions remain over its performance in more contested environments, particularly against advanced electronic warfare and GPS jamming capabilities.More broadly, the deployment highlights both progress and vulnerability. While the US has demonstrated it can rapidly field cost-effective systems, officials warn that gaps remain in counter-drone capabilities and in the broader supply of scalable, modern military hardware, raising questions about readiness for more complex future conflicts.Lucas drone was developed by reverse-engineering an Iranian Shahed drone recovered from Ukraine This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US-Iran backchannel diplomacy intensifies, but prospects for a deal remain limited.Summary:US engaging Iran via intermediaries including Pakistan Vance leading backchannel efforts tied to Hormuz reopening Iran confirms message receipt but denies direct negotiations US intelligence sees low willingness from Iran to engage Ceasefire discussions remain early-stage and highly uncertain The United States is intensifying backchannel diplomatic efforts with Iran, using intermediaries including Pakistan to relay messages, as Washington explores a potential ceasefire framework tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.US Vice President JD Vance has been at the centre of these efforts, engaging regional mediators as recently as this week to communicate US positions and test the scope for de-escalation. The discussions are understood to focus on reducing fighting in the Gulf and restoring shipping flows through Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy markets.Iran has acknowledged receiving messages through intermediaries, including Pakistan, but has reiterated that no direct negotiations with the United States are taking place, according to Iranian state media. The stance highlights the continued gap between private diplomatic exchanges and public positioning, with Tehran maintaining a hardline posture domestically while remaining engaged indirectly.At the same time, US intelligence assessments suggest that Iran is not currently prepared to enter substantive negotiations to end the conflict, underscoring the limited progress made so far. The divergence between diplomatic outreach and intelligence expectations points to a prolonged and uncertain negotiation path.Washington’s approach appears to combine pressure with diplomacy, signalling openness to a ceasefire arrangement while warning that further escalation remains on the table if talks fail to gain traction. The strategy reflects an effort to stabilise the situation without conceding leverage, particularly given the broader geopolitical and energy market implications.For markets, the key linkage remains the Strait of Hormuz. Any credible ceasefire that enables a sustained reopening would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, while continued uncertainty or failure in talks risks renewed supply disruptions and heightened volatility across energy and broader asset markets.With messaging inconsistent and both sides maintaining strategic ambiguity, the situation remains fluid. For now, the diplomatic track is active but fragile, with no clear indication that a breakthrough is imminent. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US tariff overhaul simplifies rules but risks raising effective import costs. Info via Wall Street Journal (gated). Summary:Trump administration preparing overhaul of steel and aluminium tariffs Proposed shift to 25% levy on full value of finished goods Change simplifies compliance but may lift effective import costs Commodity metals to remain under existing tariff structure Could boost tariff revenue after court rulings cut other levieThe Trump administration is preparing to overhaul its steel and aluminium tariff framework, with a shift in how duties are applied to finished goods that could materially alter import costs despite an apparent reduction in headline rates.According to reports, a presidential proclamation could be issued as soon as this week, introducing a 25% tariff on finished products containing steel and aluminium. Crucially, the proposed change would apply the duty to the full value of imported goods—rather than just the metal content—marking a significant structural shift in how tariffs are calculated.Under the current system, derivative goods face tariffs of up to 50%, but only on the portion of their value attributable to steel or aluminium inputs. The new approach would replace this with a lower nominal rate applied to the entire product value, a move that simplifies compliance but could increase the effective tariff burden across a wide range of imports.Commodity-grade steel and aluminium products—those largely composed of the underlying metals—would continue to face existing tariffs, with some products potentially reclassified into this category depending on composition.The proposed changes come after sustained complaints from manufacturers that calculating the metal content of complex goods has been operationally difficult and inconsistent. By shifting to a full-value tariff approach, the administration aims to streamline enforcement while maintaining protection for domestic industries.From a fiscal perspective, the move could also increase government tariff revenue, particularly after recent legal setbacks. A Supreme Court ruling earlier this year invalidated several of the administration’s broader tariff measures, reducing overall collections and prompting a reassessment of trade policy tools.The overhaul reflects a broader push to reinforce domestic industrial capacity, with policymakers framing the changes as part of a wider strategy to reshore manufacturing and support U.S. producers. However, the impact is likely to vary significantly across sectors, with some importers facing higher costs despite the lower nominal tariff rate. The one year anniversary of this debacle is next week. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US equities make good gains for a second day but fade somewhat lateTrump will say the Iran war is "winding down" in address, will criticize NATOIran's Pres Pezeskian : Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nationsThe message from the market: The war will end because Trump wants it to endDecember WTI crude tells a story of moderate disruption. What's the signal?French Navy chief speaking regarding the Strait of HormuzWhite House: Pres Trump to reiterate 2 to 3 week timetable for end of warAtlanta Fed GDPNow dips to 1.9% from 2.0% last.Both the S&P and NASDAQ are testing key technical bias levels. Bulls and Bears fightTrump via Vance told Iran that he's open to ceasefire if Hormuz opened - reportEIA weekly US crude oil inventories +5451K vs +814K expectedUS business inventories for January -0.1% versus +0.1% estimateUS March ISM manufacturing 52.7 vs 52.5 expectedUS March S&P Global manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs 52.4 priorCanada March S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 51.0 priorThe USDCHF moves from a higher trend line to a lower trend line. Testing key support.BoE's Bailey: I still think markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing rate hikesUS February retail sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expectedUS March ADP employment +62K vs +40K expectedinvestingLive European markets wrap: Beginning of the end to the US-Iran war?US stocks closed higher for the second consecutive day, with the Nasdaq leading the gains, up 1.16%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.72% and the Russell 2000 added 0.64%. With more than half the week complete, the major indices are now positioned to snap a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 is up 3.24% on the week, on pace for its best performance since late November, while the Nasdaq is higher by 4.26%, also tracking its strongest weekly gain since that same period—assuming gains hold into the close.In the rates market, yields initially moved lower but reversed higher into the close. The 10-year yield rose 2.3 basis points to 4.334%, after dipping to a session low of 4.261%. The 2-year yield increased 1.4 basis points to 3.813%, after trading as low as 3.735%. Meanwhile, oil prices edged lower, trading just below the $100 level at $99.60, down $1.78 on the day but well above the intraday low of $96.50.The equity market tone remains supported by growing expectations that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end. President Trump is scheduled to speak at 9 PM ET, with indications he may signal that military objectives have largely been achieved and that the conflict is winding down. However, uncertainty remains. The Strait of Hormuz continues to represent a critical geopolitical risk, serving as both a chokepoint for global energy flows and a strategic lever for Iran, even as damage to infrastructure and leadership has been significant. Trump will be critical of the NATO allies for not coming to the US aid in reopening the shipping channels. Of course, it was Trump and Netanyahu who started the war without consultation with the allies. Yields in the US were supported by better than expected economic data today. The March ADP report provides a steady but unspectacular lead-in to Friday’s NFP release. Private payrolls rose +62K, above the +40K expected, and broadly in line with the prior month (revised to +66K), suggesting the labor market is stabilizing after a soft start to the year. The gains were driven primarily by small businesses (+85K) and concentrated heavily in education and health services, which accounted for the bulk of hiring. Construction also contributed positively, but there were notable offsets from declines in trade/transportation, manufacturing, and hiring at medium and large firms, pointing to uneven underlying demand.From a policy perspective, the report takes some pressure off the downside risks in employment, but it is far from signaling a reacceleration. Wage growth held steady for job stayers at 4.5%, while job changers saw a modest uptick to 6.6%, indicating some resilience in labor income.As a prelude to Friday’s NFP, the ADP data leans modestly positive relative to expectations, especially following last month’s sharp -94K surprise decline in payrolls. With consensus looking for a +65K rebound and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.4%, the ADP report supports the idea of a gradual recovery rather than a sharp bounce, keeping the labor market stable but not strong enough to materially shift the broader Fed narrative on its own.US retail sales reinforced the narrative of a resilient consumer. February sales rose 0.6%, beating expectations of 0.5%, rebounding from January’s modest decline (revised to -0.1%). The details were equally firm, with ex-autos (+0.5%), ex-autos and gas (+0.4%), and the control group (+0.5%) all exceeding forecasts—an important signal for GDP. On a year-over-year basis, sales accelerated to +3.7% from +3.2%, reflecting steady demand. Strength was led by health care and clothing, alongside solid gains in online retail and food services, although some softness remained in food stores and furniture. Overall, the data underscores a consumer that continues to spend, helping to support broader economic growth despite ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainties.The March ISM Manufacturing report came in slightly stronger than expected, with the PMI rising to 52.7 vs 52.5 forecast (from 52.4 prior), marking the strongest level since August 2022 and signaling a third straight month of expansion in the sector. However, beneath the headline, the details were more mixed. Production improved, but new orders slowed to 53.5, suggesting demand is still not accelerating meaningfully, while the employment index remained in contraction (48.7), pointing to ongoing weakness in factory hiring. At the same time, inflation pressures picked up sharply, with the prices paid index jumping to 78.3, and supplier deliveries slowing—both reflecting supply chain disruptions and rising input costs tied in part to geopolitical tensions. Overall, the report shows manufacturing is stabilizing and expanding modestly, but the growth is uneven, with sticky inflation and weak hiring tempering the optimism heading into the broader economic outlook.The business inventories came in lower than expectations but sales advanced by 0.4% sending the Inventory to Sales ratio to lower levels That could lead to more GDP growth down the road due to a restocking of the shelves to more normal levels. In the forex market, the USD is ending the day mostly lower against the major currencies, but importantly well off its weakest levels as rising yields and stronger-than-expected economic data helped limit the downside.The CHF remains the strongest performer, with USDCHF down -0.64%, although the pair has rebounded from its session low of 0.7906 to trade near 0.7941 into the close. The GBPUSD is up 0.59% on the day, but has also pulled back from its high at 1.3346, now trading around 1.3305 and notably back below its 200-hour moving average at 1.3315—a level that tilts the near-term bias more neutral to bearish. Similarly, the EURUSD gained 0.31%, reaching a high of 1.1627, but has eased to around 1.1590 as the session winds down. The EURUSD did extend above its 38.2% of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1606 but is back below that key upside target, dulling some of the technical victories seen over the last two days. Overall, while the dollar remains under pressure on the day, the failure to hold at extreme levels suggests sellers are losing some momentum, especially as rates and data begin to offer underlying support for the greenback.All eyes on Trump tonight (but then again, we all know it will be the typical Best of Trump full of patting himself on the back and pointing the finger of blame for things lot going as well as was hoped. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

SpaceX takes first formal step toward record-breaking IPO, but execution still fluid.With eyes on the war mongers and what their utterances and planned utterances mean for markets, this almost slipped under the radar. Summary:SpaceX reportedly files confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC Potential valuation seen around $1.5T–$1.75T; timing could be mid-2026 Would mark the largest IPO in history if completed Filing remains preliminary; structure and timing not finalised Signals potential reopening of global IPO pipelineElon Musk’s SpaceX has confidentially filed for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to reports from Bloomberg and other major outlets, marking a pivotal step toward what could become the largest IPO in history.The confidential filing allows SpaceX to begin regulatory discussions with the SEC without immediately disclosing detailed financials, a common route for high-profile listings. While no official prospectus has been made public, early indications suggest a potential valuation in the range of $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion, which would place the company among the most valuable publicly traded firms globally.Timing remains fluid, though some reports point to a possible listing window as early as mid-2026, depending on market conditions and regulatory progress. The final size of the offering and share structure have not yet been disclosed, and the company retains flexibility to delay or withdraw the IPO if conditions deteriorate.SpaceX’s business spans rocket launch services, satellite broadband via Starlink, and emerging artificial intelligence integration, positioning it at the intersection of multiple high-growth sectors. The inclusion of Starlink, in particular, is expected to be a key driver of investor interest, given its recurring revenue profile and global scale.The move comes at a time when global IPO activity has been subdued, suggesting that a successful listing could act as a catalyst for broader capital markets issuance. However, uncertainties around geopolitics, interest rates, and equity market volatility remain key variables in determining execution timing.As with other Musk-led ventures, governance structure will be closely watched, with expectations that he will retain significant control through a dual-class share arrangement. --- I know I am committing narrative violation here, but ... the two-day equites rally may be somewhat reflective of positioning ahead of the news of this 'confidential' blockbuster IPO, The late fade into the close sure does fit a mild “sell-the-news” dynamic as the IPO headlines hit the wires. Perhaps the easing geopolitical risk and positioning-driven flows were the meat and potatoes of the rally, this the dessert? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The main focal point today will, of course, be Trump speaking:Trump will say the Iran war is "winding down" in address, will criticize NATOThere is still US troop movement to the Middle East so regardless of what he says he might sneak in a ground assault some time over the weekend. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The market is pricing in hope for the end of the war and the blockade of Hormuz and that led to a second day of gains for equities. Early in the day, it looked like the same kind of powerful strength that we saw yesterday but the enthusiasm faded later in the dayClosing changes:S&P 500 +0.7%Nasdaq Comp +1.1%Russell 2000 +0.85%Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.5%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%Memory names have come storming back after last week's worries about a new Google architecture and the potential cancellation of OpenAI orders.Western Digital led the S&P 500 up 10.0%Micron +9.5%INTC 9.3%Seagate +8.5%Miners and travel names were also strong:NEM +5.2%FCX +4.8%AAL +4.0%Big cap tech wasn't far behind:GOOG +2.8%TSLA +2.5%META +1.2%AMZN +1.1%The big loser on the day was Nike, as it crashed 15% on lowered guidance. Home furnishing store RH was also crushed, down 19.3% as the housing market slump continues. Notably, oil companies continued to act like peace is coming with Exxon down 5.2%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD pushed higher yesterday and extended the move again today, but upside momentum stalled where it matters most technically.On the hourly chart, the pair made three separate attempts to break above the 38.2% retracement at 0.57714 (from the March 20 high). While price briefly traded above that level twice, buyers could not generate enough follow-through to test—let alone break—the falling 200-hour moving average at 0.57808. The rally peaked at 0.57764 before running out of steam and rotating back to the downside.That failure near key resistance was telling.The price has now moved lower and is testing the 100-hour moving average at 0.57406, which becomes the next key barometer. If sellers can push and hold below that level, it would shift the short-term bias back in their favor and open the door for a retest of the lows from Monday and Tuesday.The buyers had their opportunity over the past few sessions, but they couldn’t clear the technical hurdles needed to take control. With momentum fading near resistance, the sellers now have the edge—and a chance to press the downside if the 100-hour MA gives way.The buyers have given up and the price has now rotated lower. The price is down testing the 100 hour MA at 0.57406. If the price can get below the MA, that would give the sellers more confidence and have traders looking back to the lows reached on Monday and Tuesday. The buyers took a shot over the last few days, but could not get over some of the humps needed to take more control. Now, the sellers have the shot to exert the pressure once again. Watch 0.5740 for bias clues. If the buyers can stall, the price remains in a battle with the buyers and sellers leaning against the 200 hour MA above and the 100 hour MA below. If the sellers can push back below the 100 hour MA, the sellers can make another push to the lows for the week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning recent bombings of Iranian infrastructure, Pezeshkian notes that Tehran harbors no enmity toward ordinary Americans.Instead, he urges the U.S. populace to look past “manufactured narratives,” arguing that the perceived Iranian threat is an invention of the military-industrial complex and Israeli political interests.Summary:Iran's Historical Identity Pezeshkian presents Iran as one of the world's oldest continuous civilizations — one that has never initiated a war in modern history, even when militarily capable of doing so.Iran-U.S. Relations: Origins & Deterioration He traces the breakdown to the 1953 U.S.-backed coup against Mosaddegh, followed by support for the Shah, U.S. backing of Saddam Hussein in the 1980s war, and decades of sweeping sanctions.Iran as a Manufactured Threat Pezeshkian argues Iran's threatening image is politically constructed to justify military spending, regional dominance, and arms industry interests — not grounded in Iranian behavior.Iran's Domestic Progress Despite Pressure He points to measurable gains — literacy rising from ~30% to over 90%, advances in technology, healthcare, and infrastructure — as evidence of Iranian resilience and capability.Critique of U.S. Military Actions Recent strikes on energy, industrial, and medical facilities are called war crimes that harm civilians and damage America's global standing.Israel's Alleged Role Pezeshkian directly accuses Israel of manipulating the U.S. into fighting Iran as a proxy war, diverting attention from Palestinian issues at American expense.Appeal to the American Public He encourages Americans to look past media narratives and points to Iranian immigrants thriving in Western institutions as a counter-narrative.Closing Message Confrontation is framed as historically futile. Pezeshkian positions Iran as enduring and dignified, and calls for a shift toward engagement.The full text of the president’s letter follows below:In the name of God, the Compassionate, the MercifulTo the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:Iran—by this very name, character, and identity—is one of the oldest continuous civilizations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers—and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbors—Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness—not a temporary political stance.For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful— the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented.Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran—a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done—and continues to do—is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression.Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’état—an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalization of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward U.S. policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression—twice, in the midst of negotiations—against Iran.Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled—from roughly 30% before the Islamic Revolution to over 90% today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives.At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible.This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country “back to the stone ages” serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing?Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the U.S. government—choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor.Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure—including energy and industrial facilities—directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar—shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests?Is “America First” truly among the priorities of the U.S. government today?I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation—an integral part of this aggression—and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants—educated in Iran—who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people?Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The FT reports that Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition to break the blockade. That's using one geopolitical crisis as a bargaining chip in another — and evidently it worked. The Europeans had been saying the strait situation was "not our war," but after Trump went — reportedly "rather hysterical" according to one official — NATO chief Rutte scrambled to put together a joint statement from France, Germany, and the UK pledging to help with the strait, the report says.This isn't new and came together on March 19, and more countries have signed on since. The real kicker: Trump told Reuters he'd "absolutely" consider withdrawing from NATO entirely. Whether that's a negotiating tactic or genuine intent almost doesn't matter at this point — the uncertainty alone reshapes how every allied capital plans its defense spending and every energy trader prices risk. Watch Starmer's coalition talks with the 35 signatories this week. If there's a credible plan to reopen Hormuz after hostilities end, that's the catalyst for oil to come off the boil. Notably, there was a report today that Europe and other countries were considering sanctions on Iran if it didn't open on the Strait. What the market is increasingly concluding is simple: Trump wants this war to end and the US has an abundance of levers to pull to make that happen. Maybe it's NATO, maybe it's tariffs, maybe it's sanctions against others. There are really no rules and limits to US Presidential power any longer and no one is going to fight too hard for Iran.What's not yet clear is if Iran's Revolutionary Guard will play along and if there's really a deal to be made with them. Ultimately, they have weapons and ships along Iran's 1000 mile coastline are sitting ducks even with escorts. They're still hitting targets all over the Middle East with relative accuracy and an oil tanker is a big target that's much closer.So Trump is getting the benefit of the doubt right now but don't take your eyes off of Iran. Notably, we have seen stocks come off the highs in the past hour or so.Another thing to watch is a letter that Iran's President will issue "to Americans" within the next 30 minutes or so. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The broader market is optimistic about a resolution in Hormuz and Iran despite mediocre and mixed signals from Washington and Tehran. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% in a continued rally from yesterday and it's tough to hang it on any headline.Trump has repeatedly indicate that the US is ready to declare 'mission accomplished' and leave Hormuz for others to clean up. That's not exactly a great sign about reopening.A report today said other countries could threaten Iran with sanctions if they don't reopen but it's hard to imagine that breaking the back of a country that's been hit by 12,000 bombs in the past month.But markets are the world's great filters of information and I think it's worth looking at longer-dated oil contracts. Here is WTI crude contract for December. Today it's testing the lows from the fake headlines from when the US energy secretary said there was an escort through Hormuz.If you take this contract at face value, the price of oil has gone from around $58 to $72. That's material but it's an economic shock. If you zoom out a bit further, oil was around $64 for most of last year so it's only an $8 increase.Compare that chart to May WTI, which hasn't come anywhere near the March 20 low.That difference reflects a market that sees ongoing problems through May deliver but sees them clearing over the remainder of the year. So far stock markets and the economy, you're pricing in a quarter or two of pain followed by a steady improvement afterwards.Now that could obviously be wrong and Iran could blockade the Strait of Hormuz for months but the message from the crude market (and others) is that this is winding down.As a trader, I think you want to consider that possibility and dig into some of the trades that have the most to recoup if that's the case. Today's retail sales data showed the US consumer was in fine shape ahead of this war and this week's consumer confidence didn't show much worry going forward.Trump is also a President that's relentlessly focused on boosting the stock market and no one can forget the rebound after Liberation Day tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, Pres Trump posted on Truth Social:Today, the French Navy Chief is speaking and saying: Number of Chinese vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz not enough to restore normal traffic flowsChina will probably need to engage more directly in the debate and show its impatience on closure of Strait of Hormuz.France's trying to bring several countries together at political level to determine conditions under which the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened in a lasting way.Military would ultimately be needed to monitor Hormuz reopening.No evidence at this stage that Strait of Hormuz has been minedFrench Navy — Current ForcesThe Marine Nationale fields a well-rounded modern fleet centered on the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, the only one of its kind outside the US, carrying Rafale M fighters and E-2C Hawkeye aircraft. Its surface fleet includes FREMM multi-mission frigates, La Fayette-class stealth frigates, and Mistral-class amphibious assault ships. Underwater, France operates Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines (keeping at least one on patrol at all times for nuclear deterrence) alongside the newer Suffren-class nuclear attack submarines, which are gradually replacing the aging Rubis class.With one of the world's largest Exclusive Economic Zones, the navy maintains permanent deployments across the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean. It also actively participates in NATO operations and EU maritime missions. On the horizon, the FDI frigates are entering service to bolster the surface fleet, and a next-generation carrier (PANG) is in development to replace the Charles de Gaulle around 2038. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The White House is saying that Pres. Trump is to reiterate 2 – 3 week timetable for the end of the Iran operations.US official adds:Trump to give operational updata on IranTo tout success in achieving goals in Iran.To reiterate the 2-3 week timetable.The president is to address the nation at 9 PM ET.Course how all this ends is anyone's guess. Israel if it had it's way would want it to go on until all of Iran was destroyed with the splinter terrorist groups.Iran doesn’t operate through a single group—it uses a network of proxy and splinter militias across the Middle East, often referred to as part of its broader “Axis of Resistance.”Core Iran-backed groups (primary proxies) Hezbollah (Lebanon) Iran’s most important and longest-standing proxy Highly trained, heavily armed, and politically integrated Hamas (Gaza) Sunni group but receives funding, weapons, and training from Iran Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza) Smaller, but more directly aligned with Iran than Hamas Houthis (Ansar Allah – Yemen) Control large parts of Yemen Use missiles, drones, and maritime attacks Iraq-based splinter militias (most fragmented network) Kataib Hezbollah Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Badr Organization Often operate under umbrella labels like: “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” Key point: These groups are loosely coordinated but semi-independent, which is why they are often considered splinter networks. Syria-based militias Liwa Fatemiyoun (Afghan fighters backed by Iran) Liwa Zainebiyoun (Pakistani fighters) Other Shia militias supporting the Assad government Many are extensions of Iraqi or Hezbollah-linked forces.Lebanon & regional extensions Hezbollah-affiliated units operating beyond Lebanon Syria Iraq Broader regional logistics and finance networks Yemen (Houthis and sub-groups) Houthis are the main force, but include: Local tribal factions and sub-units Increasing coordination with Iranian and Hezbollah support How Iran manages the network Coordinated primarily through the IRGC Quds Force Provides: Weapons Training Funding Strategic direction Big picture takeaway Iran’s approach is decentralized: Core proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) Plus numerous splinter militias (especially in Iraq and Syria) This structure allows: Plausible deniability Multiple pressure points across the region Flexibility in escalation without direct confrontation Bottom line The most recognizable Iran-backed groups are: Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis The real fragmentation comes from: Iraqi and Syrian militias, which function as splinter groups with varying degrees of independence Together, they form a distributed network that plays a central role in Middle East conflicts This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate from their model has dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.9 percent on April 1, down from 2.0 percent on March 23. After this morning’s retail sales release from the US Census Bureau and this morning’s manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent.The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab for a list of upcoming releases.The Atlanta Fed model for GDP takes the data for the quarter and projects a growth GDP in "real time". As more more data becomes available, the model should mimic the growth for the quarter. However, last quarter, the Atlanta Fed forecas growth at 3.0%, while the actual advanced reading came in much lower at 1.4%. Private economists had forecast and average GDP gain of 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.