Energy shock splits policy outlook as ECB eyes hikes while Fed stays on holdSummary:Middle East conflict drives renewed energy-led inflation shock Bond yields rise as markets price potential rate hikes ECB expected to begin tightening as soon as next month Europe more exposed to energy price pressures than US Barclays sees two ECB hikes this year Fed unlikely to hike despite shifting rhetoric US less sensitive to energy shock due to domestic supplyBarclays expects diverging policy paths between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve as the Middle East conflict drives a renewed inflation shock via energy markets, with Europe seen as significantly more exposed than the United States.With the conflict now entering its fourth week and uncertainty lingering over its duration, short-term government bond yields across both Europe and the US have moved sharply higher. Markets have begun to price in the risk that central banks may need to tighten policy in response to rising inflation pressures, particularly those stemming from elevated oil and gas prices.Barclays economists argue that the ECB is likely to begin raising interest rates as soon as next month, reflecting the more immediate and pronounced inflationary impact facing the euro area. Energy costs play a larger role in Europe’s inflation dynamics, and the region remains more vulnerable to supply disruptions tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.The bank expects the ECB to deliver two rate hikes this year as policymakers respond to the acceleration in price pressures, marking a shift toward a more proactive inflation-fighting stance.By contrast, Barclays does not anticipate the Federal Reserve will follow the same path. While US yields have also risen and markets have flirted with the idea of renewed tightening, the bank’s economists see less urgency for policy action. The US economy is considered less sensitive to energy price shocks, with domestic production helping to cushion the impact of higher global oil and gas prices.Even so, recent Fed communication suggests a subtle shift in tone. At the latest meeting, two typically dovish policymakers withdrew their dissent against holding rates steady, with one indicating openness to tightening should the conflict prove prolonged. Despite this, Barclays maintains that the threshold for Fed rate hikes remains high, and that policy is likely to stay on hold through the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US says Iran’s military capability heavily degraded as strikes hit production base Info via Times of IsraelSummary:US has struck over 10,000 targets in Iran Two-thirds of arms production facilities destroyed Joint US-Israel operations expanded strike impact 92% of Iran’s largest naval vessels destroyed Iran’s naval power projection largely eliminated Missile and drone attacks down ~90% Rebuild capacity significantly impaired Campaign moving toward dismantling military baseEarlier:Trump may announce Iran ceasefire even WITHOUT a deal, Israeli media reportsThe United States has significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities since the start of the conflict, with American strikes destroying roughly two-thirds of the country’s arms manufacturing infrastructure, according to the head of US Central Command.Speaking from MacDill Air Force Base in Florida, CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper said US forces have now struck more than 10,000 targets inside Iran, underscoring the scale and intensity of the campaign. He added that joint operations with Israel have expanded the scope of damage even further, with thousands of additional targets hit.Cooper described the impact as “tangible,” highlighting severe losses across Iran’s naval, missile and drone capabilities. He said approximately 92% of Iran’s largest naval vessels have been destroyed, effectively eliminating the country’s ability to project maritime power in the region and disrupt global shipping routes.The degradation of Iran’s offensive capabilities has also been reflected in a sharp drop in hostilities. According to Cooper, the pace of Iranian missile and drone attacks has fallen by around 90% since the early stages of the war.Beyond immediate battlefield effects, the US is increasingly targeting Iran’s capacity to regenerate military strength. Cooper said strikes have damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of the country’s missile, drone and naval production facilities, as well as key shipyards, significantly limiting its ability to rebuild.He suggested that the campaign is now moving toward a broader strategic objective of dismantling Iran’s wider military-industrial base entirely, though acknowledged that operations are ongoing.For markets, the comments reinforce the view that while near-term military risk may be diminishing as Iran’s capabilities are degraded, the conflict remains active and unresolved. The focus is now shifting from escalation risk toward the durability of this degradation and the potential for longer-term geopolitical consequences across energy and shipping routes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Venezuela output rebounds to 1.1 mln bpd but recovery remains fragile.Info via Reuters report. Summary:Venezuela oil output rises to ~1.1 mln bpd in March Up from ~942k bpd in January Recovery driven by easing constraints, exports Output back near pre-disruption levels Still far below historical ~3 mln bpd peak Accounts for ~1% of global supply Refining activity also improving Further gains likely gradual without major investmentVenezuela’s oil production has climbed to around 1.1 million barrels per day in March, marking a notable recovery in output as the country’s energy sector continues to stabilise following years of disruption.The latest figures, cited by state oil company PDVSA and presented by acting President Delcy Rodríguez, show a sharp increase from January levels of roughly 942,000 bpd. The rebound reflects a broader turnaround after production fell below 900,000 bpd earlier this year amid sanctions, logistical constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks. The recovery has been supported by a combination of easing US restrictions, improved access to diluents needed to process Venezuela’s heavy crude, and a gradual return of export flows. Output has now returned to levels seen prior to recent disruptions, with production capacity estimated near current levels in the short term. Despite the improvement, Venezuela remains a shadow of its former self as an oil producer. The country once pumped more than 3 million bpd in the late 1990s, but years of underinvestment, sanctions and operational decline severely curtailed output. Even at current levels, Venezuela accounts for only around 1% of global oil supply. Refining activity has also shown signs of recovery. Domestic gasoline and diesel production rose to approximately 166,700 bpd in 2025, up from 146,200 bpd the previous year, highlighting gradual improvements in downstream capacity. Looking ahead, further gains are expected to be incremental rather than rapid. Analysts note that a meaningful expansion in production would require significant foreign investment, regulatory clarity and sustained infrastructure upgrades.In the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions elsewhere, Venezuela’s recovery offers a modest but important source of additional supply. However, its ability to materially shift global balances remains limited in the near term. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Markets eye unusual ceasefire signal as Trump may act without formal deal.-ps. Maybe its just me but could this just be some sort of misdirection ahead of an imminent ground invasion?Anyway, on with the post. -Summary:Israeli media suggests Trump may announce ceasefire by Saturday Reports indicate no final agreement may be in place Seen as a working assumption within Israeli circles Al Qahera and N12 News report similar expectations Unusual move without formal ceasefire framework Raises questions over enforcement and durability Could trigger short-term risk relief in markets Credibility and follow-through remain keyReports circulating in Israeli media suggest that US President Donald Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran as early as next Saturday, even in the absence of a formal or final agreement, an unusual development that is raising questions across markets and diplomatic circles. Some of the reports cite Netanyahu as expecting the announcement. According to multiple outlets, including N12 News, the working assumption within Israeli official circles is that Washington could move toward a unilateral or loosely coordinated ceasefire declaration. Separate reports carried via Al Qahera have echoed similar expectations, reinforcing the idea that an announcement may precede any comprehensive deal.Such a move would mark a departure from traditional ceasefire frameworks, which are typically underpinned by negotiated terms, verification mechanisms, and mutual commitments. Announcing a ceasefire without a structured agreement introduces uncertainty around enforcement, durability, and the likelihood of compliance by all parties.The timing of the potential announcement is also notable, with the conflict approaching a key phase where both military and diplomatic pressures are intensifying. US officials have previously indicated expectations for the conflict to last several weeks, but the prospect of an early declaration suggests a possible shift toward de-escalation, or at least an attempt to shape market and geopolitical expectations.For markets, the implications are complex. A ceasefire headline could trigger an immediate pullback in geopolitical risk premiums, particularly in oil and safe-haven assets. However, the lack of a formal agreement may limit the durability of any such move, leaving investors cautious about fully pricing in de-escalation.The reports remain unconfirmed, and the unconventional nature of the proposed approach means credibility and follow-through will be key. Markets will be watching closely for official confirmation and, more importantly, for signs that any ceasefire announcement translates into tangible changes on the ground. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Dollar rises ~2% since Iran conflict began Gains driven by safe-haven demand, energy dynamics Morgan Stanley warns rally may be a bull trap Markets seen underpricing growth-negative impact Fed expected to cut rates twice this year ECB may hike to counter energy-driven inflation Narrowing rate differentials seen as USD headwind Dollar downside risk if growth slowsMorgan Stanley has cautioned that the US dollar’s recent rally may prove short-lived, warning that current strength could represent a “bull trap” as underlying macro dynamics shift against the currency.The dollar has appreciated by around 2% since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, supported by a combination of safe-haven demand and higher energy prices. This move has coincided with weakness in major counterparts such as the euro and yen, as markets sought liquidity and relative stability amid rising geopolitical risk.However, Morgan Stanley strategists argue that the rally may not be sustainable. They suggest markets are underestimating the negative impact of the conflict on global growth, which could ultimately weigh more heavily on the US economy than currently priced.A key factor behind the bank’s view is the expected shift in monetary policy divergence. Morgan Stanley anticipates that the Federal Reserve will deliver two rate cuts this year as growth slows, contrasting with expectations for the European Central Bank to move in the opposite direction by tightening policy to counter inflation pressures driven by higher energy costs.This narrowing of interest-rate differentials, historically a key driver of currency trends, is seen as a potential headwind for the dollar. As yield advantages erode, the relative appeal of holding US assets may diminish, particularly if growth concerns begin to dominate market sentiment.The bank characterises the recent price action as a classic “bull trap,” where initial gains draw in investors before reversing as the underlying fundamentals reassert themselves.Markets will be watching closely for confirmation of this view through incoming economic data and central bank signalling. If growth risks materialise and policy expectations shift accordingly, the dollar could face renewed downside pressure despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US stocks take an optimistic view on the war in IranThe US is basically threatening to kill Ghalibaf and Araghchi if no deal madeThe present Iran gave Trump was allowing several fuel tankers through HormuzDo you want to hear the story of gold? I will tell the technical story in this videoIran's Araqchi: Iran is not seeking war, wants a permanent end to conflictIran parliamentary speaker reiterates that ground attack will result in escalationLeavitt: The US is very close to meeting its objectives in IranThe U.S. Treasury auctions off $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of the 3.980%The latest news headlines from US, Iran and IsrealThe Qatar-Iran rumors are getting some attentionIran threatens to block the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb StraitPakistan says it hasn't had confirmation that Iran declined talksIran's nuclear power plant struck again - report (Update: It was yesterday)EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +6926K vs +477K expectedPress TV: Iran will end the time of its choosing only if own conditions metBOE's Greene: I am more worried about higher inflation than slower demand from warUS February import price index +1.3% vs +0.5% expectedinvestingLive European markets wrap: Oil down, risk mood picks up on hopeful optimismThe latest developments in the Iran–US–Israel conflict show a clear divide between public posturing and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, with both sides maneuvering for leverage rather than signaling a clean path to resolution. On the surface, Iran is taking a firm and defiant stance. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reiterated that Iran is not seeking war but will not engage in direct talks with the US, insisting that any resolution must include a permanent end to hostilities, guarantees against future conflict, and compensation for damages. This message has been consistent across officials, with Tehran emphasizing that indirect communication through mediators does not constitute negotiation and that any agreement must come on its terms—not under pressure from Washington.At the same time, Iran is reinforcing its deterrence posture. Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warned that any ground incursion—particularly involving regional actors—would trigger severe escalation, including potential strikes on critical infrastructure. Iran has also broadened its threat framework to global trade routes, signaling it could disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if attacked, adding to its existing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains partially open but tightly controlled. Shipping flows are being selectively allowed, with “neutral” countries gaining passage while US- and Israel-linked vessels face restrictions. This controlled access underscores Iran’s strategy of using chokepoints as economic and geopolitical leverage without fully shutting them down.Despite the hardline rhetoric, there are increasing signs of quiet diplomatic movement. Reports indicate the US is working through intermediaries—primarily Pakistan, with Turkey also in the mix—to arrange potential talks that could provide an off-ramp. Senior US officials, including Vice President JD Vance and other top negotiators, are expected to be involved. Iran has not formally rejected proposals and may be open to discussions, although it continues to reject the idea of a temporary ceasefire. This suggests a gap between Iran’s public stance and possible private flexibility.Meanwhile, the US is projecting confidence and pressure simultaneously. The White House says it is close to achieving its military objectives, with operations ahead of schedule and Iran’s missile activity reportedly declining. Officials claim Iran is looking for an “exit ramp,” though that characterization conflicts with Iran’s public messaging. The US has also reportedly engaged in “productive talks” in recent days, reinforcing the idea that diplomacy is active but fragile. At the same time, the rhetoric remains aggressive, with warnings that failure to reach a deal could lead to severe escalation.Adding another layer of pressure, reports suggest that the US and Israel have temporarily removed key Iranian officials—including Araghchi and Ghalibaf—from potential target lists for several days. This appears to function as a coercive signal tied to negotiations, effectively offering a short window for diplomacy while implicitly threatening consequences if talks fail. While this may increase pressure on Iranian leadership, it also complicates their domestic position, as any concession could be seen internally as being made under duress.In parallel, Israel is reportedly operating under a narrowing window, aiming to maximize military impact in the near term, particularly against Iran’s weapons infrastructure. This adds urgency to the timeline and raises the risk of further escalation before diplomacy can take hold.Bottom line: The situation is a high-stakes balancing act. Iran is signaling strength and conditions publicly while keeping limited diplomatic channels open, and the US is combining military pressure, coercive signaling, and backchannel negotiations. The next few days—especially any proposed talks—will be critical in determining whether this shifts toward de-escalation or moves closer to a broader conflict.In markets, the uncertainty is reflected in energy prices, with oil trading near highs for the day, but still down on the day as traders weigh the risks to supply routes and potential disruptions. Iran’s partial easing of restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz has provided some relief, but conditions remain tight and unpredictable. The price of oil is down -$1.12 or -1.23% at $91.23. The high for the day was at $91.73. The low was much lower at $86.46. US yields moved lower despite much higher than expected import and export prices for the month. Are traders pricing in lower growth as the impact from the war linger and linger and linger.. US import and export prices surged in February, signaling a broad-based pickup in inflation pressures even before the latest geopolitical tensions began on February 28th. Import prices rose +1.3% vs +0.5% expected, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, with nonfuel imports up a strong +1.1%, showing that the increase wasn’t just about energy. Gains were widespread across capital goods, industrial supplies, consumer goods, and autos, with notable strength in machinery, semiconductors, and metals—suggesting both supply pressures and possible tariff front-running.On the export side, prices climbed +1.5% vs +0.5% expected, the biggest increase since May 2022, with year-over-year growth at +3.5%. Energy played a role, but industrial supplies and metals also saw strong gains, while export prices to Canada jumped sharply. Overall, the data points to rising global price pressures and improving U.S. pricing power, reinforcing concerns that inflation could reaccelerate, especially with added risks from the ongoing war.PS Import and export prices do not reflect the impact of tariff on prices. The yield curves currently shows:2 year yield 3.883%, -5.3 basis points5 year yield 3.971%, -5.9 basis points10 year yield 4.326%, -6.6 basis points30 year yield 4.894%, -4.5 basis pointThe yield decline also came after the 2nd consecutive poor coupon auction. Today the U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5 year notes with a tail of 1.4 basis points. The comes after the 2 year note auction which was equally as poorly received by investors.In the US stock market, the markets also look past the negative, focusing on a potential positive from a cease-fire:Dow industrial average +0.66%S&P index +0.54%NASDAQ index +0.77%In the currency market, the dollar moved higher despite lower yields.The biggest gainer was against the AUD (-0.66%) and the NZD (-0.53%). The greenback rose by 0.55% vs the JPY and .50% vs the CHF. It rose by 0.4% vs the EUR and the GBP as well. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of gold closed 2025 at $4,317.95 and surged sharply higher, peaking at $5,598.75 on January 29. That was a fast, momentum-driven move in a short period of time. The rally then reversed, with price tumbling to a low near $4,400 on February 2 before rebounding again to around $5,400 on March 1—just one day after the Iran–US/Israel war began.However, instead of extending higher on geopolitical risk, the market rotated lower. The price fell back below the 2025 closing level at $4,317.95 and extended down to a low of $4,098 on Monday. That decline stalled just ahead of a key confluence: the rising 200-day moving average at $4,083 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 2022 low at $4,076.92. Buyers leaned against that dual support zone, and over the last three days, the price has rebounded sharply—rallying roughly 12.5% to today’s high of $4,602.That high briefly pushed above the 100-day moving average at $4,597.22, but momentum could not be sustained, and the price has since rotated lower, currently trading near $4,537.So the technical story is clear: support held at the 38.2% retracement and 200-day moving average, while resistance held near the 100-day moving average around $4,600.What next?On the downside, the $4,395 level is now key support, representing the post-high corrective low and a prior swing high from October 2025. Below that, the 2025 closing level at $4,317.95 remains an important downside target. Notably, yesterday’s low reached $4,306—just below that level—before buyers stepped back in.Putting it all together, the market is now defined by clear borderlines:Resistance: $4,597–$4,600 (100-day moving average) Near-term support: $4,395 (swing level) Stronger support zone: $4,317–$4,395 (key swing area) Major support: $4,076–$4,083 (38.2% retracement / 200-day MA) If buyers can push and stay above the 100-day moving average, the bias shifts back to the upside. If not, and price rotates back below $4,395, sellers will start to lean again with a run toward the lower support zone.Is gold on fire or is the fire being extinguished? That is what is at stake as the price pays attention to he daily moving average levels (and other levels). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Exchange of messages through mediators does not mean negotiations with the USTehran demands a permanent end to the war and compensation for destructionTop authorities are reviewing the offered proposals, Tehran has no intention to hold talks with USThere has been a very consistent message from Iran today and it's finally starting to sink in.Notably, Trump hasn't said anything today about the war in person or online. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's not clear which regional country he is talking about here."Based on certain intelligence, Iran's enemies, with the backing of a regional country, are preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran's islands. All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces. If they take a single step, all vital infrastructure of that regional country will be targeted without restriction in relentless strikes."The context strongly points to the UAE as they have a dispute with Iran over Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb, which Iran has controlled since 1971.Other possibilities are Bahrain or Saudi Arabia. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Putin signed the order to halt gold exports.Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the restrictions as part of a broader push to clamp down on the shadow economy, framing them as a plan to "clean up" the economy. Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev noted that gold has increasingly become a substitute for foreign currency in illicit transactions, facilitating capital flight and money laundering.The initial announcements came on December 8 and were reported at he timeOn the new law, which will take effect on May 1, individuals would be allowed to take no more than 100 grams of gold out of the country, which is worth about $15,000.In addition to limits on exporting rubles and gold, the package includes eight other measures targeting imports, cash-register-free retail, self-employed workers, cryptocurrency transactions, illegal lending, and the alcohol and tobacco markets.The only real notable detail here is that it will take effect on May 1 so there could be some rush to sell gold before then. In domestic terms, Russia is a huge gold producer and is #2 in the world. It's not clear if this degree will apply to miners but I suspect not.Gold is up $79 to $4552 today as it tries to stabilize after a brutal selloff from $5000 last week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US military is ahead of schedule in its operationIranian regime is looking for an exit rampIran wants to talk, Trump is willing to listenIran's missile and drone attacks have declinedUS has been in productive talks in the past three daysTrump doesn't not bluff, Iran should not miscalculateTrump to unleash hell if Iran doesn't admit defeatReiterates a 4-6 week timeline for operationsThe possibility here is that Iran's negotiators are offering a much different deal in private than in public.The line that "Iran wants to talk and Trump is ready to listen" is a tough one to swallow given that it's pretty obvious that the US is the party that's pushing for talks. I don't know if that invalidates anything else she said but there was a brief 10 point spike spoos on this that immediately faded. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

High yield 3.980%Wi level at the time of the auction 3.966%Tail +1.4 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis pointsBid to cover 2.29X versus 6 month average of 2.36XDirects (domestic buyers) 22.48% versus 6 month average of 27.5%Indirects (international buyers) 61.9% versus 6 month average of 61.7%Dealers 15.61% versus 6 month average of 10.8%AUCTION GRADE; DAnother lackluster and below average auction. The tail was 1.4 basis points versus 0.3 basis points average. The bid to cover was less than the average. Domestic buyers didn't show up again, with international buyers around the average. The Dealers were not saddled with nearly 25% like yesterday, but are accepting 15.61% well above the 10.8% average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iran US-Israel War news :CNN is reporting that the Trump administration officials are working to organize a potential meeting this weekend—likely in Pakistan, though Turkey is also being considered—to explore a diplomatic off-ramp to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend, possibly alongside other senior officials, though details remain fluid due to security and logistical concerns. Pakistan has been a key intermediary, recently conveying a 15-point US proposal addressing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while Turkey has also played a supporting diplomatic role. Discussions about the trip are ongoing at the White House, with Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff currently leading the negotiations.Netanyahu's window for destruction is potentially closing as a result, the near times is reporting that he is looking to exert maximum effort over the next 48 hours to destroy as much as possible of Iran's weapons industry. From Iran, they are considering meeting with US negotiators in Pakistan to meet US officials to discuss the 15 point plan from Pres. Trump, but would not entertain a temporary cease-fire (the NY Times is also reporting). Axios is important that the US has not received any official messages rejecting the offer.Iran did flinch a little overnight after easing some restriction on the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, Iran is not fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it’s allowing some ships through under strict conditions, while restricting or blocking others.What’s happening:“Non-hostile” ships can pass, but they must coordinate with Iranian authorities Ships linked to the U.S., Israel, or close allies are generally restricted Some countries—like India, China, and Pakistan—have had vessels allowed through in certain cases Ships may need special approval or identification signals to transit safely But it’s still highly restricted: Iran has turned back ships without permission Overall traffic is reduced and more uncertain, with delays and rerouting Bottom line:The Strait isn’t fully closed—but it’s tightly controlled and being used as leverage. Iran is allowing some ships through, mainly those it considers neutral or friendly, while limiting othersLooking at the oil market, the price is currently trading at $90.40. That is well off of the low at $86.46 for the day. The high prices at $90.68. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I don't love reporting on rumors that are doing the rounds because most of it is garbage but at the same time, I like to know what the rumors are. There's also a war going on and the state of journalism is lamentable, so it's a constant stream of staged 'leaks' and 'sources' reports that are spoonfed to create some kind of official narrative.It's all made trading very difficult and just in the last hour, there was a report about a strike on Iran's nuclear power plant that turned out to be old news, but still briefly jarred the market.The rumor doing the rounds is that Iran and Qatar made some kind of deal and it's based on the reality that strikes on Qatar stopped on March 20 and Qatari employees were told to go back to the office and schools. They had been working from home since March 5. Other countries in the area are still The rumor says that Iran struck some kind of deal with Qatar (likely to halt attacks from US bases there, and maybe to eventually close them) in exchange for a halt to attacks on Qatar, along with the release of $6 billion to Iran.The genesis of the $6 billion number is that in September 2023, about $6 billion of Iranian funds were transferred to accounts in Qatar as part of a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap. At the time, U.S. officials said Iran would not be able to access the money “any time soon" but it's unclear what happened to it since.The actual 'reporting' on the deal can be traced back to JFeed is an English-language Israeli/Jewish news site founded in 2023. It's more of a news aggregator. Reporter Eliana Fleming wrote that 'western diplomatic sources' said:Doha is looking for a way to insulate itself from the broader war between the Allied forces and Iran. While a Qatari diplomat has officially denied these reports, Western officials believe the offer is a genuine attempt to buy immunity from Iranian missile and drone strikes.From there, the rumor seemed to take off. Of course, in the backdrop to this Iran said it would stop attacking neighboring energy infrastructure if it was no longer attacked. This came after Iran caused major damage to 2 LNG trains in Qatar.Now I don't really believe this report and I don't think Iran would be looking for money at this point in a life and death struggle but it's out there, so be aware. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran is threatening to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if there is a ground attack on Iran.The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.At its narrowest point, the strait is about 26 to 30 kilometers (16 to 19 miles) wide. It is divided by Perim Island into two channels. The eastern channel, called Bab Iskender, is about 3 kilometers (2 miles) wide and relatively shallow, with a depth of around 30 meters (about 100 feet). The western channel, called Dact-el-Mayun, is much wider—about 23 to 25 kilometers (14 to 16 miles)—and significantly deeper, at roughly 300 meters (about 1,000 feet) or more.Most large ships use the deeper western channel, while the eastern channel is more restricted due to its shallow depth.Iran's Houthis allies in Yemen launched more than 100 attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Bab al-Mandab in 2023–2025. That would further wreck supply chains but is more of a headache than a blockade as the goods could travel via Suez and around the Cape of Good Hope. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

All the media in Iran seem to indicate that ceasefire talks have been rejected but yesterday Trump sounded fairly confident that there were people who wanted them in Iran. Now there's a newswire report citing Pakistani officials who were recruited by the US to broker talks. They acknowledged the media reports but also said that Iran hasn't officially responded and pledged to do so later today.So there's still hope and it's certainly reflected in stock and oil markets at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, I walked through the broader stock indices—focusing on the NASDAQ and S&P—and at that time, the technical bias was clearly negative, with both indices trading below their respective 200-day moving averages. That level remains a key barometer for buyers and sellers, and staying below it keeps the longer-term bias tilted to the downside.Today, however, sentiment has improved. Hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East have helped lift equities, but from a technical perspective, the picture remains mixed—and a bit fragile.Starting with the NASDAQ, the index has now closed below its 200-day moving average for five consecutive days, reinforcing the bearish tilt. That moving average currently comes in at 22285.70, and importantly, today’s rally has not been enough to reclaim it. The high price reached 22093.18, still well short of that key level.For buyers to regain meaningful control, they need to get the price back above—and keep it above—the 200-day moving average. Until that happens, rallies risk being corrective rather than the start of a sustained move higher.That said, there is a constructive element developing on the downside. The NASDAQ has moved back above a prior swing area between 21803 and 21898, which had acted as support in the past. Although the price briefly dipped below the top of that zone earlier today (to around 21865), it quickly reversed higher.Holding above that swing area keeps buyers in the game, but it’s a “work in progress.” The real test remains higher—back at the 200-day MA.Turning to the S&P 500, the story is slightly different—but still mixed. The index had closed below its 200-day moving average for four straight days through yesterday. Today, the price did manage a brief break above that level (currently at 6630.85), reaching a high of 6633.94.However, that break could not be sustained. The price has since rotated back below the moving average and is now threatening a fifth consecutive close beneath it.So while the S&P showed early signs of strength, the inability to hold above the 200-day MA underscores the ongoing tug-of-war. If the broader market is going to turn higher, the S&P likely needs to lead by firmly reclaiming and holding above that level—which could then pave the way for the NASDAQ to follow.The clearest signal today may actually be coming from the technology bellwether—Nvidia.After closing below its 200-day moving average for three consecutive days, Nvidia has rebounded and is now trading back above that key level at $178.97 (currently near $180). If the stock can hold and close above its 200-day MA, it would give buyers more confidence and potentially act as a tailwind for the broader tech sector.Looking ahead, the next upside target for Nvidia comes in at its 100-day moving average near $185.03. A break above that level would further shift the bias to the upside and help relieve some of the pressure that has weighed on the tech-heavy NASDAQ.Bottom line:NASDAQ: Bearish bias below the 200-day MA, with support holding—for now. S&P 500: Mixed, with price oscillating around its 200-day MA. Nvidia: Turning more constructive, back above its 200-day MA and attempting to lead. The result is a mixed and uncertain technical backdrop, leaving equity markets on edge. Traders are watching closely for the next decisive move—either a break back above key resistance to shift momentum higher, or another failure that reinforces the downside bias This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Press TV reports that Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant has been struck again, but it's not clear if that damage is to the plant or the adjacent site.According to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, a projectile struck the facility around 21:08 on Tuesday, marking an alarming escalation in the US-Israeli terrorism against Iran’s civilian infrastructure.As this news was hitting, US stocks were already under pressure. I don't know if that was because Trump told his friends that the ceasefire was off or whether the market finally got the message the Iran wasn't interested in ending the war yet.But note the time in this report, it cites late Tuesday so it's not something that just happened as it's now Wednesday evening in Tehran.In any case, I don't like the signs on any of this.The S&P 500 is still up 18 points but was up +70 in the pre-market.Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran's largest power plant, which is the Damavand Power Plant southeast of Tehran. Bushehr is about one third of its size at 1 GW.Update: With a closer inspection of the timing of that report, we've seen a bounce in stocks. The market is understandably anxious about Trump striking power plants if there's no ceasefire agreement. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US stock market paints a vibrant picture today, with technology stocks leading the charge, fueled by significant gains in semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors. Investors continue to capitalize on positive earnings reports and future growth prospects, setting an optimistic tone for market activity.Sector Overview? Technology Sector: The technology sector showcases impressive strength, especially within semiconductors, as Nvidia (NVDA) rises by an eye-catching 2.76%. Other notable performers include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with a 6.63% increase and Intel (INTC), which climbs 6.48%. This positive sentiment suggests investor eagerness for innovation and advancements within the tech space.? Electric Vehicles & Consumer Cyclical: Tesla (TSLA) gains 2.79%, highlighting robust investor confidence in the auto manufacturing space, particularly electric vehicles. Amazon (AMZN) also contributes to the sector's vigor with a 2.24% rise, indicating favorable conditions in internet retail.? Healthcare: The healthcare sector is holding its ground, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) advancing 1.60% and Eli Lilly (LLY) up 0.89%. Positive traction within drug manufacturing demonstrates resilience amid broader market dynamics.? Financials: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shows a strong upward movement, up 1.09%, reflecting healthy earnings reports that bolster confidence in financial stocks.Market Mood and TrendsThe prevailing sentiment in the market is optimistic, with technology and automotive sectors driving substantial gains. A focus on innovation and sustainability is capturing the imagination of traders and investors alike. The current dynamics suggest that growth sectors, particularly tech-related industries, are overshadowing other sectors with cautious optimism.Strategic Recommendations? Focus on Growth Stocks: Investors should consider leveraging the upswing in technology and electric vehicle stocks. The momentum suggests promising short-term gains, particularly in sectors synonymous with innovation.? Diversification: While tech stocks are showing substantial growth, diversification remains crucial. Balancing portfolios with stable sectors such as healthcare and financials could mitigate risks associated with potential market corrections.? Stay Informed: Keeping abreast of real-time developments and earnings announcements will help in making informed investment decisions. The evolving market landscape necessitates agility and responsiveness.The market continues to navigate through a landscape ripe with opportunities and challenges. For more insights and detailed analyses, visit InvestingLive.com and stay updated with the latest trends and market movements. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +6156KGasoline -2593K vs -2143K expDistillates +3032K vs -1292K expRefinery utilization +1.5% vs +0.4% expThe API data from late yesterday:Crude +2300KGasoline +500KThis report doesn't matter for the oil market right now. There is something like 9.5 million barrels of oil per day shut in officially right now and 15 mbpd that can't get through the Strait of HormuzFor background, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes its Weekly Petroleum Status Report every Wednesday, typically at 10:30 AM Eastern Time. This report provides a comprehensive snapshot of U.S. petroleum supply and demand, covering crude oil inventories, refinery utilization rates, product supplied (a proxy for demand), and import/export volumes. The data is collected from surveys of refiners, pipeline operators, and bulk terminal operators across the country.The crude oil inventory figure is the headline number that moves markets. It measures the total barrels of commercial crude held in storage at facilities like the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, which serves as the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract. When inventories rise more than analysts expect, it typically signals oversupply and puts downward pressure on prices. Conversely, a larger-than-expected draw suggests tighter supply conditions and tends to push prices higher.Traders, analysts, and policymakers watch this report closely because the United States remains the world's largest oil consumer and producer. Changes in U.S. stockpiles offer real-time insight into the balance between global supply and demand that monthly reports from OPEC or the International Energy Agency cannot capture with the same frequency.The report also tracks gasoline and distillate (diesel and heating oil) inventories, which are critical for gauging seasonal demand patterns — gasoline during the summer driving season and distillates heading into winter. Refinery run rates indicate how aggressively the processing sector is converting crude into finished products, providing another layer of context for understanding price direction and market sentiment. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.