China’s central bank kept benchmark rates unchanged for a ninth month, balancing growth support with yuan stability.Summary:PBOC keeps 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5%Ninth consecutive month of unchanged benchmark ratesGrowth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4, weakest since post-Covid reopeningYuan appreciation adds currency-stability considerationsPolicymakers balancing stimulus needs with FX and export risksChina’s central bank has left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth straight month, underscoring the delicate balance policymakers are attempting to strike between supporting a slowing economy and maintaining currency stability.The People's Bank of China held its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. The one-year rate serves as the reference for most new and outstanding corporate and household loans, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing.The decision comes against a backdrop of moderating economic momentum. China’s economy expanded 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, marking its slowest pace since authorities dismantled stringent Covid-era restrictions in late 2022. Domestic demand remains subdued as households rein in spending amid a prolonged property downturn, a soft labour market and uncertain income prospects.Beijing has attempted to stimulate activity through targeted measures, including efforts to promote services consumption in areas such as elderly care, tourism and leisure. Officials hope these segments can offset persistently weak demand for goods, particularly as the real estate sector continues to drag on broader sentiment.At the same time, currency dynamics have complicated the policy outlook. The yuan has strengthened in recent months, aided in part by a softer U.S. dollar. The central bank manages the currency within a daily trading band of 2% on either side of a reference midpoint (today's is here), and officials have recently set that midpoint stronger, moving it below the symbolic 7-per-dollar level for the first time in nearly three years.While a firmer yuan helps contain imported inflation and capital outflow risks, it also poses challenges for exporters already grappling with U.S. tariffs and intense global competition. A stronger currency could erode price competitiveness at a sensitive juncture for China’s export engine.The steady hand on interest rates suggests policymakers are prioritising financial and currency stability over aggressive monetary easing, even as growth pressures linger. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 526bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today.after maturities net drain is 926.4bn yuan, largest in more than 4 months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The ninth consecutive month without a change. More on the LPRs, and why they don't matter so much any more, here:Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, February 24, 2026 - China and Japan return This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Bank of Korea is set to hold rates at 2.50% this week and through 2026 as FX and housing risks outweigh easing pressures.Summary:All 34 economists see BOK holding at 2.50% on February 26Rates forecast to remain unchanged through 2026Won weakness and housing risks curb easing appetiteInflation at 2.0% in January, in line with targetShift from January poll that had pencilled in further cutsSouth Korea’s central bank is expected to keep its base rate steady at 2.50% at its February 26 meeting and maintain that level through 2026, according to a Reuters poll of economists.All 34 respondents surveyed between February 19–23 forecast the Bank of Korea will leave rates unchanged this week. All 30 economists who provided end-2026 projections also expect policy to remain at 2.50% throughout the year, marking a notable shift from January when a sizeable minority still anticipated at least one additional cut.The policy pause comes as authorities grapple with currency volatility and financial stability risks. The Korean won has remained under pressure, declining 5.2% since the last rate cut in May and drawing scrutiny from the U.S. Treasury. Policymakers have responded with measures aimed at curbing excessive FX volatility, including activation of a swap line between the Bank of Korea and the National Pension Service.At the same time, housing market momentum has raised red flags. Seoul apartment prices have risen for 55 consecutive weeks, climbing 0.15% in the latest week, heightening concerns about financial imbalances.Inflation, by contrast, appears contained. Consumer price growth eased to a five-month low of 2.0% in January, aligning with the BOK’s target and offering little immediate justification for policy tightening.Economists say the central bank has increasingly emphasised exchange rate stability and housing risks in recent meetings, reducing the likelihood of further easing this year. Some analysts suggest the possibility of rate hikes could re-emerge in 2027 if growth firms and asset prices continue to rise, though current market pricing for near-term tightening is seen as overly aggressive.For now, the BOK appears set on an extended hold as it balances modest economic recovery against currency and housing vulnerabilities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury led January yen rate check to steady markets during Japan’s election turmoil, Nikkei reports.Summary:U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led January yen “rate check”Action not requested by Japan, according to senior U.S. officialsMove aimed at calming instability ahead of Japan’s lower house electionYen rebounded from ~158 to ~155 per dollar after Jan. 23 checkU.S. open to coordinated intervention if formally requestedU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent personally led a January “rate check” on the yen during its sharp slide against the dollar, according to senior U.S. officials cited by Nikkei, in a move designed to stabilise markets rather than respond to a formal Japanese request.The check, conducted on Jan. 23 by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the Treasury’s direction, came as the yen weakened toward the 158 per dollar level amid political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s Feb. 8 lower house election. Officials said Bessent was concerned about broader market instability during what he described as a “political vacuum,” as well as the potential for spillovers into global bond markets.Rate checks are typically viewed as a precursor to possible currency intervention, involving authorities sounding out financial institutions on pricing were official action to occur. Following the move, the yen strengthened sharply to around 155 per dollar.According to U.S. officials, Japan’s Ministry of Finance had not requested either a rate check or coordinated intervention at the time. However, Washington would have considered joint action had Tokyo asked.The backdrop included rising long-term Japanese government bond yields, with newly issued 40-year debt touching 4% for the first time. Selling pressure spilled into U.S. Treasuries, pushing 10-year yields toward 4.3%, before retreating toward 4.0% after the rate check.Officials said Bessent believed markets were misreading signals from Japan’s bond market and feared that higher global yields could undermine broader financial stability. The action was described as consistent with a broader U.S. principle of using its economic strength to help stabilise allies.Following the landslide election victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, U.S. authorities assess that political uncertainty has receded. They have also expressed confidence in Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.While no specific measures are currently planned, U.S. officials indicated close coordination with Japan will continue. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 gold by year-end, citing central bank buying and Fed cuts, while warning of higher volatility.Summary:Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $5,400 by end-2026Central bank buying a key structural driverFed rate cuts expected to spur investor allocationsAdditional private diversification flows pose upside riskGreater volatility likely as options activity risesGold prices are set for further gains in 2026, according to a new note from Goldman Sachs, which sees bullion climbing to $5,400 by year-end.Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs Research, attributes the constructive outlook to two primary forces: sustained central bank purchases and rising investor allocations as U.S. interest rates fall.Official sector buying remains a cornerstone of the bullish thesis. Central banks continue to diversify foreign-exchange reserves away from traditional assets and into bullion, providing steady structural demand. That trend, Thomas argues, should remain intact through 2026.The second pillar is monetary policy. Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to deliver rate cuts this year, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. Historically, declining real yields and easing financial conditions have supported investor flows into precious metals.Thomas also highlights what she describes as “significant upside” risk to the $5,400 forecast. The bank’s base case does not fully incorporate the potential for further private-sector diversification into gold. Given the relatively small size of the gold market compared with global bond and equity markets, even modest reallocation flows could have an outsized price impact.However, that dynamic cuts both ways. Much of the diversification demand is expressed via call options, which can amplify price swings. As a result, while Goldman expects the broader uptrend to persist, it cautions that volatility is likely to increase.In short, the bank sees gold’s rally extending into year-end—driven by structural reserve diversification and cyclical rate relief—but with sharper price action along the way. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

After the Supreme Court curtailed key second-term tariffs, the Trump administration is turning to Section 232 to pursue new national security levies.Summary:Administration considering new Section 232 tariffs on six industriesFollows 6–3 Supreme Court ruling striking down many leviesNew 232 tariffs separate from recently announced global 15% levySteel and aluminium 232 tariffs to be revampedCompanies could face higher effective payments under revised rulesThe Trump administration is considering a fresh round of national security tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs.According to The Wall Street Journal (gated), the administration is weighing new investigations covering roughly half a dozen industries, including large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecom equipment. These levies would be imposed under Section 232, which allows the president to restrict imports deemed a threat to national security.The move comes after the Supreme Court voted 6–3 to invalidate most of Trump’s tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court ruled the president overstepped his authority in imposing so-called reciprocal tariffs on virtually all U.S. trading partners. Those measures accounted for more than half of the revenue generated by his second-term tariff regime.In response, Trump announced a new global 15% tariff that can remain in place for five months, alongside additional levies planned under Section 301 of the Trade Act. The prospective Section 232 tariffs would be issued separately from these measures.Importantly, the Supreme Court decision did not affect existing Section 232 tariffs, which have not faced serious legal challenges. During his second term, Trump expanded the scope of 232 measures beyond raw materials such as steel, aluminium and copper to include a broader range of consumer products incorporating those inputs. Exemptions have been limited, with only modest relief offered to U.S. automakers.It remains unclear when the Commerce Department will formally announce new investigations or when tariffs could ultimately be imposed. Section 232 requires a formal investigative process before duties are enacted, though once in place the president retains broad authority to modify them.The administration is also moving to revamp existing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. While nominal tariff rates on some goods may fall, the changes would apply tariffs to a product’s full value rather than only the steel or aluminium content. That shift could result in higher overall tariff payments for many companies.U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last week the administration may “adjust the way some of the tariffs are applied for compliance purposes,” signalling further technical changes ahead.Separately, the administration had already been reviewing tariffs under Section 232 for nine additional industries, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, drones, industrial robots and polysilicon used in solar panels. Some of those investigations were opened nearly a year ago and could be accelerated following the Supreme Court decision.A White House spokesman said safeguarding national and economic security remains a priority and that the administration is committed to using all lawful authorities available. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

January CPI is set to show electricity-driven headline strength and still-firm core inflation, keeping a May RBA hike in play.Summary:Headline CPI seen at 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in JanuaryAnnual inflation forecast at 3.6–3.7% y/yElectricity prices a key upside driver; fuel partly offsetsTrimmed mean seen at 0.3% m/m, annual pace steady at 3.3%RBA still expected to hike in May despite slight core moderationAustralia’s January CPI, due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday at 11:30am Sydney time (1930 US Eastern time), is expected to show firm underlying inflation even as seasonal factors temper headline momentum.Both Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac expect headline inflation to rise by 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. On a non-seasonally adjusted measure, CBA looks for a 0.2% monthly gain, while Westpac’s 0.1% estimate translates to the same 0.4% seasonally adjusted outcome.The annual inflation rate is forecast to print between 3.6% and 3.7%, easing slightly from December’s pace but remaining well above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band.Electricity prices are expected to be the standout contributor in January as cost-of-living rebates fade and bills revert toward underlying pricing. Food inflation, particularly fresh fruit and vegetables and non-alcoholic beverages, is also seen adding upward pressure. Health costs are another modest contributor.These gains should be partly offset by declines in automotive fuel, holiday travel and accommodation, garments and communications. Lower fuel prices in particular are expected to cushion the electricity-driven lift in headline CPI.The key focus will be underlying measures. Both banks estimate the trimmed mean rose 0.3% in January, leaving the annual pace steady at 3.3% y/y. Westpac notes the six-month annualised rate may ease to 3.4% from 3.7%, hinting at gradual moderation in momentum.CBA’s alternative three-month-on-three-month trimmed mean measure is expected to soften slightly to 0.8% from 0.9%, broadly consistent with a quarterly trimmed mean of 0.8% in Q1 2026. That would be marginally below the RBA’s central forecast of 0.9%, though still indicative of persistent underlying price pressures.From a policy perspective, CBA continues to expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate in May. Even if quarterly trimmed mean inflation undershoots the RBA’s forecast slightly, the bank argues that would likely be insufficient to deter further tightening given the Board’s recent signalling and upward revisions to the output gap and neutral rate.With electricity volatility complicating the headline read, markets are likely to focus squarely on the trimmed mean as the cleaner gauge of inflation persistence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Rabobank and UBS see the Swiss franc staying firm as safe-haven demand outweighs intervention risks.Summary:Rabobank and UBS expect CHF to stay well supportedSafe-haven flows underpinned by strong Swiss fundamentalsSNB easing or FX intervention seen as limited in impactEUR/CHF forecast trimmed to 0.91 (3-month, Rabobank), from 0.92Strong franc a headwind for exporters but not yet intervention-worthyThe Swiss franc is expected to remain one of the more resilient currencies into 2026, with both Rabobank and UBS arguing that global uncertainty and Switzerland’s domestic stability should continue to underpin safe-haven demand.Rabobank says the franc “fits the textbook requirement for a safe haven,” citing Switzerland’s credible institutions, robust legal framework, current account surplus and strong fiscal position. In an environment of persistent financial market disruption, those characteristics are likely to keep the currency well bid.Reflecting that view, Rabobank has lowered its three-month EUR/CHF forecast to 0.91 from 0.92 previously, implying a slightly stronger franc than previously anticipated.While there is a possibility that the Swiss National Bank could respond to excessive strength by cutting rates back into negative territory or stepping up currency interventions, Foley suggests such measures may have limited and potentially temporary impact. The structural appeal of the franc during periods of uncertainty may overwhelm policy efforts aimed at softening it.UBS strikes a similarly constructive tone, describing the franc as a “rock of stability” amid global uncertainties and elevated debt levels. The bank expects Switzerland’s macro stability to continue attracting capital inflows, reinforcing demand for CHF assets.That said, UBS does not expect systematic intervention from the SNB at current levels. While a firm currency presents challenges for the Swiss export sector, policymakers are unlikely to react aggressively unless appreciation becomes more disorderly. Cyclical developments—such as a potential recovery in Europe, could also temporarily weigh on the franc, reducing the urgency for policy action.Taken together, the outlook from both banks suggests CHF strength remains fundamentally driven rather than purely speculative. As long as geopolitical and financial market risks linger, the franc’s safe-haven status is likely to keep it supported, even in the face of potential policy easing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices close lower as markets ponder uncertainty from tariffsRBA Economist Plumb Focuses on CPI for ForecastingCrude oil futures settle at $66.31. Buyers failed to keep momentum going.Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since September 2025ECB's Lagarde: Inflation in policy are in a good placeGold. Silver. Bitcoin.What are the charts in these "currencies" telling traders right not?What technical levels are in play for the broader US stock indices?US February Dallas Fed manufacturing index +0.2 vs -1.2 priorA look at the winners and losers in the changes to Trump tariff levelsUS December factory orders -0.7% vs -0.6% expectedMarket dynamics today: Tech under pressure, healthcare and semiconductors gain tractionEuropean Parliament postpones vote on EU-US trade deal - reportFebruary Belgian business sentiment -13.7 vs -8.8 priorFed's Waller: Jan jobs data was a surprise, may want to hold rates if it continues in FebinvestingLive European markets wrap: USD swings, precious metals stay bid on tariffs messUS president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than beforeThe US dollar was mixed to start the week, with price action largely shaped by renewed tariff headlines and a risk-off tone. Uncertainty/Confusion for companies and countries are the code words for the day. President Trump raised the blanket tariff rate to 15% from 10% over the weekend and warned of even higher rates for countries challenging the recent Supreme Court decision. Fed Governor Waller described the March FOMC decision as a “coin flip,” reinforcing the data-dependent outlook.The Dollar Index traded roughly flat with an overall decline of -0.08% but there was divergent moves for the major currency pairs. .JPY outperformed, benefiting from risk-off flows in sympathy with the stock markets declines, particularly in tech and AI-related names. The USDJPY is trading down -0.23% on the day (USD lower, JPY higher). In contrast, activity and commodity currencies lagged. The AUD and NZD underperforming and the CAD also lower vs the greenback. Those pairs were pressured by the sentiment. Australia CPI will be released tomorrow after the close with the expectations for YoY inflation to decline to 3.7% from 3.8%> The RBA at the last meeting raised rates by 25 basis points. In Europe, EUR, GBP, and CHF posted modest gains versus the dollar. The euro found support after stronger-than-expected German Ifo data, though trade-related uncertainty remains elevated. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that policy decisions will remain meeting-by-meeting and that completing her term remains her baseline. Sterling was steady after BoE commentary suggested rates may still be above neutral.Snapshot of G10 moves:EURUSD: modestly higher near 1.1790USDJPY: lower near 154.70 (yen strongest G10)GBPUSD: slightly higher near 1.3488USDCHF: lower near 0.7741USDCAD: CAD marginally lower (-0.18%) near 1.3698AUDUSD: AUD softer by -0.38% near 0.7055NZDUSD: Fell by -0.35% near 0.5954Overall, today’s FX trade reflects risk sensitivity and tariff uncertainty, with defensive currencies outperforming and high-beta currencies lagging.US stocks fell:Dow industrial average fell by -821.91 point or -1.66% at 48,804.06 points. S&P index -71.76 points or -1.04% at 6837.75.NASDAQ index -258.80 point or -1.13% at 22627.27A bright spot is US yields fell among the uncertainty and risk off flows:2 year yields 3.440%, -4.0 basis points5 year yield 3.585%, -6.2 basis points10 year yield 4.032%, -5.2 basis points30 year yield 4.702%, -2.3 basis points. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case.Summary:UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming monthsGeopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensionsFed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yieldsGlobal gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025; central banks buyingSupply constraints emerging as mine depletion looms by 2028UBS has reiterated an Attractive stance on gold, forecasting a rise to USD 6,200 per ounce in the coming months, arguing that the fundamental pillars behind the rally remain firmly in place.On geopolitics, the bank expects uncertainty to remain elevated. The US military build-up in the Middle East and a tightening deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran increase the probability of further volatility. While UBS notes that geopolitical shocks often have only temporary effects on broad markets, they tend to trigger sharp volatility spikes, conditions that typically boost demand for portfolio hedges such as gold.Macro conditions are seen as equally supportive. UBS expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing, forecasting two 25bp rate cuts by end-September. A softer US dollar and declining real yields would reinforce gold’s appeal, particularly if inflation continues to ease and the Fed’s policy mix turns more dovish later this year. Even with firmer recent jobs data and some hawkish signals in FOMC minutes, UBS believes the broader disinflation trend remains intact.Demand dynamics further strengthen the constructive view. According to the World Gold Council, total gold demand surpassed 5,000 metric tonnes in 2025 for the first time on record. UBS expects additional gains driven by stronger investment flows and sustained central bank purchases. Rising household incomes across Asia are also seen underpinning structural jewellery demand over the medium term.On the supply side, growth appears constrained. While elevated prices may incentivise exploration, consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates that around 80 mines will exhaust current production plans by 2028—suggesting limited near-term supply elasticity.Taken together, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a supportive Fed easing cycle, robust demand, and tightening supply, UBS argues the strategic case for gold remains compelling. The bank recommends investors consider an allocation of up to mid-single digits within a diversified portfolio as an effective hedge against market and macroeconomic risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing down over 1% with the Dow industrial average down -1.66%. Shares of IBM tumbled -13.13% (that is a bad luck number). Shares of American Express were down -7.21%, and Visa fell -4.57%.Other big losers for the day with declines of over 5% include:CrowdStrike Holdings: -9.88%Snowflake: -8.66%American Express: -7.21%Shopify Inc: -7.04%DoorDash: -6.60%Chewy: -6.56%Mastercard: -5.72%Robinhood Markets: -5.68%Strategy: -5.62%Cadence Design: -5.51%Intuit: -5.51%Fortinet: -5.48%PNC Financial: -5.23%Super Micro Computer: -5.21%United Airlines Holdings: -5.17%Macy’s Inc: -5.09%A look at the numbers for the indices shows:Dow industrial average 121.91 points or -1.66% at 48,804.06 points. S&P index -71.76 points or -1.04% at 6837.75.NASDAQ index -258.80 point or -1.13% at 22627.27 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It's a near empty economic calendar today. I was expecting the People's Bank of China to set its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) yesterday but I was out by 24 hours. Its today. Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability even further.The Bank setting its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), this used to a big deal, very highly anticipated, but not any more. China's main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses reverse repo open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.The LPR setting in January left the 5 year at 3.50% (vs. expected 3.50% and prior 3.5%) and the 1 year at 3.00% (vs. exp. 3.0% and prior 3.0%). With no change expected for either again today, this will mark the ninth consecutive month without a change.A look back at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia economist Plumb Will continue to focus on quarterly CPI data for forecastingHave also been analysing underlying inflation measures using monthly CPI Remain focused on quarterly trimmed mean, any change some way offAim to assess which underlying inflation measures from monthly data will be preferred in a post-quarterly CPI worldWill engage widely and communicate our thinking ahead of any decisionsAt its last meeting on February 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, citing a material pickup in inflation during the second half of 2025. While inflation remains well below its 2022 peak, the Board judged that recent strength reflects rising capacity pressures in the economy and that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time.The decision was driven by stronger-than-expected growth in private demand, supported by solid household spending and business investment. Housing activity and prices are firming, financial conditions eased through 2025, and credit remains readily available. The Board also noted that earlier rate cuts may not have fully flowed through to demand, prices, and wages.Labour market conditions remain somewhat tight. The unemployment rate is slightly lower than expected, underutilisation remains low, and while wage growth has eased from its peak, broader wage pressures and unit labour costs remain elevated.The Board acknowledged uncertainty around how restrictive policy currently is, but judged that demand growth exceeding supply capacity could further add to inflation pressures. Global risks remain, though Australia’s major trading partners have recently surprised to the upside.Bottom line: Inflation has picked up more than expected, demand is strong, labour markets remain tight, and the RBA has resumed tightening to ensure inflation returns to target. The decision was unanimous, and future moves will be guided by incoming data and evolving risks.Technically, the AUDUSD moved up to the highest level since February 2023 on February 12 at 0.71464. Since then the price has rotated back down, trading to a low on Friday at 0.7014 before bouncing back to the upside. Earlier today, the pair pushed higher on broad USD selling, but that momentum has faded and price has since rotated lower.Technically, the move has shifted the short-term tone. The pair has fallen back below both the 200-hour moving average at 0.7075 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.7063, putting sellers back in control on the hourly chart. However, price is still holding above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.70435, which remains a key near-term support level.A sustained break below that 4-hour MA would strengthen the bearish bias and open the door toward the Friday low at 0.70142, which also aligns with the February 9 swing low — increasing its technical importance.In short, the hourly MAs have turned into resistance, and the 4-hour MA is now the key line in the sand for buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling down $0.17 (-0.26%), but the broader technical picture remains constructive.Earlier today, price pushed to $67.28, the highest level since August 2025, before rotating lower into the close. Even with the pullback, crude is still up roughly 21% from the December low at $55.08, underscoring the strength of the recent recovery trend.On the daily chart, price has moved back above the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 28 high, which comes in near $66.74. However, today marks the third consecutive session where buyers attempted to hold above that midpoint level but failed to sustain momentum.That 50% retracement is now the key pivot.Sustained trade above $66.74 would signal buyers are regaining stronger control and could open the door for further upside extension.Failure to hold above it keeps the market vulnerable to additional consolidation or a deeper pullback. On the downside,, the close support comes in at the broken 61.8% retracement at $65.72. Below the in the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) is currently at $65.17. The level also corresponds with an old upward sloping trendline.In short, crude remains in recovery mode, but buyers need a clean break and hold above the midpoint level to reinforce the bullish case. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped below 6%, and to the lowest level since September 2025. The break marks a meaningful psychological and financial shift for the housing market. Not long ago, rates were pressing toward 7%, and just one year ago the same rate stood at 6.89%. That’s nearly a full percentage point decline in borrowing costs over the past 12 months.From an affordability standpoint, that move matters. On a $400,000 mortgage, a drop from 6.89% to 5.99% can lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars, improving purchasing power and potentially bringing sidelined buyers back into the market.The decline largely reflects falling Treasury yields as markets price in slower growth and easing inflation pressures. Mortgage rates tend to track longer-term yields, so softer economic expectations have translated into cheaper financing costs.That said, rates below 6% don’t automatically translate into a housing boom. Inventory remains tight in many regions, and home prices are still elevated. But the psychological shift below 6% is important.If rates can hold under 6% — or move lower — the spring and summer housing seasons could see renewed activity. If yields turn back higher, however, mortgage rates could quickly follow.For now, the trend in rates is down — and compared to 6.89% a year ago, that’s a notable change in the landscape.Mortgage rates tend to be influenced by the US 10 year yield. Looking at the chart, the 10-year yield is now testing a critical technical level at 4.013%, which marks the 200-day moving average. This level carries added weight, as yields have not sustained a move below the 200-day MA since March 7, 2022.TheA decisive break — and more importantly, a sustained move — below 4.013% would shift the broader bias more firmly to the downside and signal a potential change in longer-term momentum.On the downside, the next key support comes in near the 2025 low at 3.86%. A move below that would open the door toward the 2024 low at 3.599%, which stands as a deeper structural support level.In short, the 200-day MA is the line in the sand. Stay above and the longer-term range holds. Break below and downside targets come into clearer focus. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECBs Lagarde:Inflation and policy are in a good placeShe adds: Completing her term is my baseline. Lagarde’s current term as President of the European Central Bank runs through October 2027. Last week, she said her baseline intention is to complete her full term and remain focused on delivering price stability and policy continuity (Click HERE).Speculation about an early departure has surfaced recently, with reports suggesting that. The discussion is tied partly to the political calendar — specifically the 2027 French presidential election — and the potential influence over naming her successor. An earlier exit could shape the timing and dynamics of the next ECB leadership transition.ECB officials have indicated they have no confirmation of any early resignation plans, and Lagarde herself has not formally signaled an intention to leave before 2027. However, she has also avoided issuing an absolute denial, which has kept speculation alive.From a market perspective, the key issue is continuity. Any sign of an early exit could introduce uncertainty around the ECB’s policy path, leadership direction, and the balance of influence among member states. For now, the official stance remains that she intends to serve through the end of her term, but the political backdrop means the topic will likely remain part of the broader European policy conversation.EURUSD TechnicalsEURUSD is holding above the 1.1765–1.1778 swing area, but price action around the 100-hour moving average at 1.1798 reflects indecision. The pair continues to trade back and forth around that level, signaling a lack of clear short-term conviction from either side.On the topside, the next key hurdle comes at 1.1830, where the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range converges with the 200-hour moving average (1.18301). That confluence zone is critical. A sustained break above it would strengthen the bullish bias and shift momentum more firmly toward the buyers.On the downside, a move below the 1.17653 swing low would tilt control back to the sellers and open the door toward the double bottom near 1.1742 from last Thursday and Friday.In short, the 100-hour MA is the near-term pivot, with 1.1830 as resistance and 1.1765 as key support defining the range. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold and silver are both pushing higher today, moving above and away from their key short-term moving averages. Of the two, gold is showing the stronger technical profile.Gold reclaimed its 100-hour moving average last Wednesday and, importantly, has held above it since. Friday’s trade brought renewed upside momentum, and that strength has extended into today’s session. The rally has now carried price beyond the 50% retracement of the decline from the all-time high at $5,000.40, and more recently above the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.61.Holding above that 61.8% level keeps buyers firmly in control. The next upside target comes in near $5,235.40, a swing area from January 28–30. A break above that level would open the door for a broader push higher and reinforce the bullish tone.Silver has followed a similar path, though with slightly less conviction. From February 18 through February 20, price traded in a tight range around its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, signaling indecision. On February 20, buyers gained traction, pushing price toward the 38.2% retracement at $86.04, a level that also aligns with a February 11 high — increasing its technical importance.Today, silver briefly dipped to $84.56, but has since recovered and is trading back above the 38.2% level near $86.74. Staying above that retracement would shift focus toward the 50% midpoint near $92.84.In contrast, Bitcoin is not attracting safe-haven flows. Over the weekend, price broke below its 100- and 200-hour moving averages near $67,600 and extended lower. Today’s low at $64,161 undercut the February 12 swing low at $65,156.The zone between $64,161 and $65,156 is now the key barometer.A move back above that range could stabilize sentiment and invite fresh buying.A break below $64,161 would increase downside pressure, with focus shifting toward the early February cycle low at $59,930 Watch the video for all the details for each of those "currencies".. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

General business activity: +0.2 (prev. -1.2)Production: 12.5 (prev. 12.2)New orders: 11.1 (unchanged)Capacity utilization: 11.8 (prev. 6.8)Employment: 7.5 (unchanged)Hours worked: 6.1 (prev. 0.7)Finished goods prices paid: 17.9 (unchanged)Raw materials prices paid: 31.7 (prev. 36.7)Wages and benefits: 31.9 (prev. 17.4)Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, with the Dallas Fed's production index holding largely steady at 12.5, pointing to an above-average pace of output growth. The broader picture from the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey was one of stability rather than acceleration, with most indicators suggesting the sector is maintaining its footing without breaking new ground.The capacity utilization index was a bright spot, climbing five points to 11.8, while new orders held firm at 11.1. Shipments pulled back modestly to 9.9 from 12.0, though still firmly in expansion territory.The headline general business activity index ticked up to 0.2 from -1.2 — essentially a flat reading that signals no meaningful change in overall conditions from January. Company outlooks were similarly treading water, with that index little changed at 3.1. The outlook uncertainty index crept up to 6.5 but remains well below its historical average, suggesting firms aren't overly anxious about what's ahead despite the noise around trade policy.The labour market side of the survey was solid. Employment growth held its pace with the index steady at 7.5, while hours worked jumped to 6.1 from 0.7, a notable move that could point to firms leaning harder on existing staff rather than ramping up hiring.The price picture was mixed and worth flagging. Finished goods prices were unchanged at 17.9, but raw materials costs eased, with that index falling five points to 31.7. The standout was wages and benefits, which surged to 31.9 from 17.4 — a considerable acceleration that will catch the eye of anyone watching the inflation pipeline.Comments in the report:Beverage and tobacco product manufacturingOur sales got off to a surprisingly strong start this year, which has us playing catch-up. That, along with a planned shutdown for a week in January for annual maintenance, has us scrambling right now. Whether these strong sales continue for the year or are just an anomaly is unknown, but we are treating this as a trend that will last for most of the year.Computer and electronic product manufacturingExtreme volatility in the price of silver has affected us, but we have been able to pass price increases through to customers. In spite of the AI sound and fury in the stock market, the "real economy" continues to chug along. Our customers continue to place regular orders and have accepted price increases averaging 5-6 percent over last year.Availability dried [up], and prices increased significantly. Larger orders that need multiple management approval are difficult to manage since prices and availability are unpredictable. Prices tend to increase without notice; in some cases, twofold.Fabricated metal product manufacturingWe do not have debt, [and we] own our property. But we are closing our family business, active since 1958, because customers [either] are not buying or [are not] paying on time. Solid production demand in first half [of 2026], expected to slow a bit in second half.Food manufacturingThe federal and state policy issues have frozen us. which are fine with us. Things are looking good, but the week we closed because of the ice storm hurt our local customers and affected us as well.Business has been slow.Machinery manufacturingBusiness remains strong, and we are receiving many new large opportunities.The floodgates have opened! What we've been praying for and hoping for is finally coming to fruition. We look to be firing on all cylinders this year and making up for lost time. Nice and steady which is good.Miscellaneous manufacturingTariffs still have an impact in our business; they are a big unknownTariffs are still a problem. Since we're direct-to-customer, it's also clear that consumers are being negatively impacted by the economy. Consumer spending has declined considerably.Paper manufacturingContinued depressed demand.Printing and related support activitiesIt's just crazy how little demand is out there right now. We are seeing some uptick in quoting, and we will soon start to get jobs that normally occur in the spring and summer. We blame it all on the chaos and lack of consistency coming out of the federal government. Transportation equipment manufacturingThe new tariffs are killing small-to-medium-sized manufacturing firms in several instances. One such example is the importation of tungsten. We purchase tungsten carbide from a U.S. firm, but they have no option but to purchase their raw materials from China, so the [tariff] costs get passed on to us. Our competitors in Ireland and Sweden are able to purchase the material from China with no tariffs involved. So, they can manufacture at lower prices and export to the U.S. U.S. manufacturing firms like us cannot compete under these circumstances.While we and our customers are seeing positive market signs, they are not large enough or consistent enough to instill any degree of confidence.Consumer confidence for large purchases is still weak. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.