This is just a post with the data. I'll have more, analysis and implications posted separately. Note that the 1.5% overall pace is below 2% for the first time since March 2022.The latest on the BoJ:BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPYJBA chief says reasonable chance of BOJ rate hike to come in March or April This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran signals readiness to retaliate if attacked as Trump weighs military options over nuclear dispute.Summary:Iran told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres it does not seek war but will not tolerate military aggression.Tehran said all bases and assets of a “hostile force” in the region would be legitimate targets if attacked.The letter said President Trump’s rhetoric signals a “real risk of military aggression.”Warning follows reports Trump is weighing an initial limited strike to pressure Iran into a nuclear deal.U.S. options reportedly range from targeted strikes to broader regime-focused campaigns.Escalation risk raises concerns for oil markets and regional security architectureIran has warned it will respond “decisively” if subjected to military aggression, telling UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that while Tehran does not seek tensions or war, it will consider all bases, facilities and assets of a “hostile force” in the region as legitimate targets if attacked.In a letter from Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations, officials said President Donald Trump’s recent rhetoric signals a “real risk of military aggression,” underscoring heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran.The warning comes amid reports that Trump is weighing an initial limited military strike designed to pressure Iran into accepting U.S. demands over its nuclear programme. According to earlier reporting, options under consideration include targeted strikes on select military or government facilities as an opening move, potentially followed by broader operations against regime-linked infrastructure if Tehran refuses to curb uranium enrichment.The limited-strike concept is said to be framed as leverage for diplomacy rather than an immediate full-scale campaign. Trump has publicly maintained that he prefers a negotiated outcome, though aides have reportedly presented a range of military scenarios, from calibrated attacks to larger-scale operations.Iran’s letter signals that even a limited U.S. strike could trigger retaliation across the region, raising the prospect of wider conflict involving U.S. bases and allied assets. Tehran’s reference to “all bases, facilities and assets” suggests a broad interpretation of potential targets, increasing the risk of spillovers beyond Iran’s borders.While Iranian officials emphasised they do not intend to initiate war, the message appears designed to deter U.S. action by raising the cost of escalation.The exchange highlights the delicate balance between coercive diplomacy and outright confrontation, with nuclear negotiations and regional security dynamics now tightly intertwined. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Daly signals steady Fed stance, sees inflation easing and AI shaping the next phase of policy debate.Summary:San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says policy is “in a good place” after 75bps of rate cuts last year.Labour market is “in a better place” and more subdued than before.Inflation is continuing to decline outside the goods sector.Expects inflation to ease further as tariff effects roll off.Describes the “last mile” on inflation as challenging due to shocks, including tariffs.Says AI capex reflects real demand, not speculative excess.Does not see AI investment generating fresh inflation pressures.Productivity effects from AI will be central to Fed assessment this year and next.Daly will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2027.San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said monetary policy is “in a good place” following last year’s cumulative 75 basis points of rate cuts, arguing that the labour market has stabilised and inflation is expected to resume its downward path as tariff effects fade.Speaking in a live-streamed conversation with former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Daly said both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, price stability and full employment, “seem to be in a good place.” She added that the central bank now has room to assess incoming data and evolving structural forces, particularly artificial intelligence and productivity.Daly noted the labour market is “more subdued than before,” reflecting the impact of earlier policy easing. She credited last year’s rate cuts with helping bring employment conditions into better balance, while also emphasising that the labour market does not always provide clear signals about underlying momentum.On inflation, Daly said price pressures continue to cool outside the goods sector and that she expects further moderation as the impact of tariffs rolls off. However, she acknowledged that the “last mile” in returning inflation to target has been difficult, citing repeated shocks, including trade-related disruptions, that have complicated progress.Artificial intelligence and capital spending were also a focus. Daly argued that AI-related investment is supported by genuine demand rather than speculative enthusiasm, saying “it’s not the Field of Dreams.” She added that she does not see AI-driven capex fuelling inflation, particularly given a more tempered labour market backdrop. Instead, the key question for policymakers will be the timing and magnitude of AI’s productivity boost.“This year and next,” Daly said, assessing how AI affects productivity and demand will be central to the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy deliberations.While she stressed that “we have more work to do” on inflation, Daly cautioned against overreacting in either direction, saying policymakers must avoid getting “behind” the curve or “over our skis.”Daly will hold a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee in 2027. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s February flash PMIs cooled across the board, signalling slower growth but firmer inflation pressures.Summary:All three S&P Global Australia flash PMIs fell from January, showing a clear loss of momentum after a strong start to 2026.Composite Output eased to 52.0 (Jan 55.7), still signalling growth for a 17th straight month.Services activity slowed to 52.2 (Jan 56.3), but continued to outperform manufacturing.Manufacturing output dipped to 51.5 (Jan 52.3), maintaining expansion but at a softer pace.New business growth cooled from January’s surge; exports rose only marginally.Hiring accelerated (services strongest in nearly three years), while backlogs were flat overall.Cost and selling-price inflation intensified, rising to the highest since September (per the release commentary).Business confidence stayed positive but fell to its weakest in around 18 months.Australia’s private sector kept expanding in February, but at a noticeably weaker pace as all three S&P Global flash PMI readings fell back from January’s strong prints.The Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index eased to 52.0 in February from 55.7 in January, remaining above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction and extending the expansion run to 17 consecutive months. The step-down signals that the burst of early-year momentum has cooled, with S&P Global pointing to a broad-based slowdown across output and new business.The slowdown was visible across the sector surveys. The Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index fell sharply to 52.2 from 56.3, while the Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.5 from 52.3. Both sectors continued to expand, but services again posted the stronger of the two upturns even after the February pullback.New business rose for a 19th straight month but slowed from January’s 45-month high, with respondents citing stable customer bases, new contract wins and a general pick-up in demand conditions. Export business continued to rise but only marginally overall, with manufacturing export growth cooling more than services.On the labour front, hiring accelerated. Private-sector employment growth was described as the strongest in almost a year, with services job creation the strongest in nearly three years, while manufacturing hiring was the weakest in four months. Despite stronger hiring, the volume of outstanding work was unchanged in February as falling manufacturing backlogs offset a rise in service backlogs.Inflation signals firmed. The survey described a substantial intensification in cost pressures, led by stronger input-price increases for goods producers, linked to supplier prices and raw materials including metals, while services firms cited higher wages and electricity costs. At the composite level, both cost and charge inflation were reported at their highest since September, with services providers more aggressive in raising prices than manufacturers.Business confidence remained positive but slipped to its weakest in just over a year-and-a-half amid concerns about economic conditions, international uncertainty and competition. S&P Global economist Eleanor Dennison said the private sector “wasn’t able to maintain the speed of growth” seen in January, with softer output and orders growth across both manufacturing and services, stronger job creation, and a re-acceleration in price pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand January 2026 international trade data.NZD/USD not a lot changed on this, around 0.5975. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is weighing a limited strike on Iran as leverage for a nuclear deal, with escalation options on the table.Summary:The Wall Street Journal (gated) reports President Trump is weighing an initial limited strike on Iran.The opening assault could target select military or government sites within days.The aim would be to pressure Tehran into ending uranium enrichment and agreeing to a U.S.-favoured nuclear deal.If Iran refuses, the U.S. could escalate to a broader campaign targeting regime facilities.Diplomacy remains Trump’s stated preference, but military options are actively under discussion.This escalation is the talk of the globe. Yesterday brought this:CBS: US military ready for possible Iran strike as soon as Saturday, Trump undecidedMore here:investingLive Americas market news wrap: Rising US trade deficit dims GDP forecast (Trump: Good talks being had with Iran)President Donald Trump is weighing an initial, limited military strike on Iran as part of a strategy to pressure Tehran into accepting U.S. demands on its nuclear programme, according to a report by the The Wall Street Journal.Citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal says the opening phase could involve targeted strikes on a handful of Iranian military or government facilities. The operation, if authorised, could come within days and would be designed as a calibrated show of force rather than a full-scale assault.The objective would be to compel Iran to halt uranium enrichment and return to negotiations on terms favourable to Washington. However, officials reportedly warned that if Tehran refused to comply, the U.S. could escalate to a broader military campaign aimed at regime infrastructure and potentially destabilising the government in Tehran.The limited-strike concept, which has not previously been reported, suggests Trump may view military pressure not merely as retaliation but as leverage to shape a diplomatic outcome. One person familiar with internal discussions said the strategy could involve gradually intensifying strikes, starting small and expanding operations until Iran either dismantles its nuclear activities or faces existential pressure.While it remains unclear how seriously Trump is leaning toward the option, senior aides have repeatedly presented the scenario during weeks of deliberations. More recent discussions have reportedly focused on larger-scale campaigns, underscoring the fluid and high-stakes nature of the debate inside the administration.Despite the military planning, Trump has publicly maintained that he prefers a diplomatic resolution—though officials acknowledge that the threat of force is being positioned as a key negotiating tool. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US December trade balance -70.3B vs -55.5B expectedInitial jobless claims 206K vs 225K estimateUS February Philly Fed Business Index +16.3 vs +8.5 expectedAtlanta Fed GDPNow final reading 3.0% vs 3.6% priorEIA weekly crude oil inventories -9014K vs +2149K expectedTrump: Good talks being had with IranUS January pending home sales -0.8% vs +1.3% expectedFed's Kashkari: Labor market is softer but still "decent to pretty good"Walmart Q4: Consumer still spending but the guidance is the story for the FedCanada December trade balance -1.31B vs -2.59B priorMarkets:WTI crude oil up $1.56 to $68.75US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.07%Gold up $20 to $4999AUD leads, CHF lagsS&P 500 down 0.3%The market focus seems to be shifting towards Iran as oil prices hit the highest since August on reports of a persistent US military buildup in the region. That's sparked a persistent bid in the US dollar that extended today. Some of the thinking is that any Iranian oil disruptions -- like higher prices or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- would fall harder on Europe than the US. WTI crude rose strongly.In economic data, the softer US trade balance report led to some notable downgrades to tomorrow's advanced Q4 US GDP report and likely means the full-year 2025 number will be below 3%.The good news for the US was that initial jobless claims fell back and the Philly Fed improved. I highlighted comments from the Deere & CO CFO would said:"The developments over the course of the past three months has strengthened our belief that 2026 marks the bottom of the current cycle."Shares of DE were up 11.6% today.Overall, the moves in FX were small and stocks slipped modestly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a busy session ahead with central bank speakers scheduled.We'll also get inflation data from Japan. Expectations are rising for a near term rate hike:BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPYJBA chief says reasonable chance of BOJ rate hike to come in March or April This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Here are some numbers to consider:Shares of Deere & Company are up 12% today and 44% so far this year Shares of CAT rose 60% last year and are up 31% year-to-date.Caterpillar and Deere don't rally on order books. The jump in DE stock today came on a quarterly earnings beat on basically every metric. CAT, meanwhile, has been on a tear since late January when it posted a record $19.1 billion quarter and disclosed a $51 billion backlog — up 71% year-over-year. The stock has surged roughly 30% year-to-date and recently hit all-time highs near $790.Deere clearly says the cycle is bottomingThe headline numbers from this morning's DE call: net sales up 18% year-over-year to $8 billion for equipment operations, EPS of $2.42 versus the Street's $2.02 estimate, and a raised full-year net income guide to $4.5–5.0 billion. All three business segments posted higher sales. Construction & Forestry top line was up 34%. Small Ag & Turf was up 24%.But the real story is in the order books.Management said the C&F order book has risen over 50% in the past quarter and is now at its highest level since May 2024. Orders for construction and compact construction equipment were both up mid-teens. They raised the industry outlook for North American construction and compact construction to +5% and bumped their own C&F net sales guide to +15%.On large ag — still the weakest segment — the tone shifted meaningfully. Combine early order programs came in better than feared. Large tractor order velocity has picked up, with the order book now stretching into Q4. Used equipment inventories are finally clearing: late-model 8R tractors (model years '22 and '23) were down 20% sequentially in Q1 alone.CFO Josh Jepsen said it plainly: "The developments over the course of the past three months has strengthened our belief that 2026 marks the bottom of the current cycle."That's a pretty definitive statement from a company that tends to be conservative.The RAMP trade -- Real Assets, Margin PotentialI have been writing about something I've called the RAMP trade for awhile and the thinking is that companies with thin margins and heavy assets can use AI to boost productivity without facing the risk of disruption.CAT and DE might be the 'picks and shovels' part of that trade but they also stand to directly benefit. CAT has effectively become an AI infrastructure play hiding inside a 100-year-old industrial company. Power generation sales surged 44% in Q4, driven by demand for large generator sets and turbines for data center applications. The Power & Energy segment became CAT's largest business by revenue for the first time. The company announced multi-gigawatt power generation orders for data center campuses and is on track to double its large engine capacity by 2030.The companies are also aiming to use AI to boost their own margins and integrate AI into their machines.The macro readTake a step back and think about what these two companies are collectively telling you:Infrastructure spending is real and accelerating. Both companies cite U.S. government IIJA funding, data center construction, and contractor confidence as major tailwinds. Deere's C&F head Ryan Campbell said he's been out visiting customers across geographies and the optimism is broad-based — backlogs are growing and fleet replacement is becoming unavoidable.The ag downturn is stabilizing, not worsening. China resumed buying US soybeans. The $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is providing near-term liquidity. Fleet age is at elevated levels and the used market is clearing. None of this screams "boom," but it does scream "the worst is behind us."Tariffs are a headwind, but manageable. Deere expects $1.2 billion in tariff costs this year and is roughly price-cost neutral including that burden. CAT faces $2.6 billion in tariff headwinds. Both companies are absorbing it through mitigation, pricing discipline, and production efficiencies rather than passing through outsized price increases.The construction cycle has legs. Between infrastructure mega-projects, data center builds, rental refleet demand, and declining interest rates, this isn't a market that looks like it's about to roll over. Housing remains soft but the rest of the mix is carrying it.Are they expensive? By historical standards, yes. DE trades at roughly 32x trailing earnings. CAT is at about 41x. But both companies are at or near trough earnings with improving order trajectories. If you're buying cyclicals at peak multiples because earnings are depressed and about to inflect higher, that's the textbook playbook.The heavy equipment makers are telling you the same thing the ISM manufacturing data has been hinting at: the industrial economy is stabilizing, AI capex is creating real physical-world demand, and the worst of the ag/construction downturn is behind us.Whether that justifies these valuations at these levels is a different question. But the signal from the order books and about the economy is increasingly clear. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The oil market continues to signal a rising chance of US military intervention in Iran.Oil had been bouncing around in a range of $62-$66 as headlines around Iran shifted the narrative but today crude broke out. It's up $1.34 to $66.53 and has simultaneously broke above the October high.Oil briefly bounced around today when Trump was asked about Iran. The first headlines were that 'goods talks were being had with Iran' and that the US had to make a meaningful deal with Iran. However he added that they needed to make a deal "or something very bad will happen".Trump also put a timeline on action, saying the US will find out "about 10 days". That suggests Iran is facing some sort of ultimatum. Today Russia said it could accept Iran's enriched uranium. Yesterday, I highlighted reports from Israeli media saying they were being told to be ready for war imminently. There is also a WSJ report today emphasizing the military buildup in the Middle East. It says the US has gathered the most air power in the Mideast since the 2003 Iraq invasion.Bloomberg's Javier Blas today spoke with Energy Secretary Chris Wright who dismissed worries about oil prices. Blas writes: If the Islamic Republic feels its survival is at stake, the regional energy industry could become a target...or weeks, Iranian officials have been telegraphing, including via military drills, that oil would be a central part of their response to any attack.Iran pumps nearly 5 million barrels per day with about half exported. Losing that would erase any surpluses in the global market and more. However the long history of the market worrying about Middle East wars boosting oil prices shows a consistent pattern: Buy the rumor, sell the fact. Time will tell but right now there is some momentum to the upside, despite the 10-day wait. Along those lines, the Washington Post is just out with a report saying the US appears ready to strike in Iran.The Trump administration appears ready to launch an extended military assault on Iran, current and former US officials said.It highlighted that officials want to at least wait until after the Olympics. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Canadian Tire reported Q4 numbers today and the read-through on the Canadian consumer is clear: they're still spending and there are no indications of weakness.Comp sales came in at +4.2% across all banners, with SportChek ripping at +9.5% and Mark's up 7.2%. Normalized EPS jumped 38% to $4.47. What's interesting from the call this morning is what CEO Greg Hicks said about spending patterns across income cohorts. The company's internal data shows spend increases across all income levels and debt burdens. The biggest increase in Q4 actually came from the most debt-burdened households — which is either a sign of confidence or a sign they've stopped caring. Either way, wallets are open for now.That said, there's nuance here. The gap between essential and discretionary spending at Canadian Tire's flagship stores is still wide — essentials up roughly 4.7% vs. discretionary at 1.6%. You would like to see that reverse. CFO Darren Myers called them "resilient but discerning," which is corporate-speak for "they'll buy snow tires but they're thinking twice about a hockey stick."On the macro side, management acknowledged the headwinds everyone already knows about: mortgage renewals, geopolitical noise, inflation. But they're buying inventory for growth in 2026 and flagged that Q1 is off to a solid start with winter weather driving sales into February.The one caveat for the bulls: winter weather was a meaningful tailwind in Q4, and the company benefited from an extra retail week worth ~$287 million in sales and ~$40 million in pre-tax income. Strip that out and the underlying growth is still healthy, just not quite as eye-popping.If you're looking for signs of a Canadian consumer rollover, it's tough to find. Notably though, the shares initially opened strongly to the upside but have now reversed and are up just 0.3%.Some are pointing to this:CEO Greg Hicks touted a "conviction that the business should, over the long term, deliver annual retail sales growth of 3% to 5%". But CFO Darren Myers immediately had to throw cold water on that for the upcoming year, explicitly warning analysts: "I think it's clear to everyone that when Greg said the 3% to 5%, it was not a guide for this year".I also noted that the company was highlighting tough H2 comps on weather and patriotic spending around Liberation Day.The loonie is flat today but tomorrow we get the December retail sales report (with Jan advanced numbers). December is expected to show a 0.5%, m/m decline and -0.3% ex autos. The latest spending tracker from RBC was soft with the bank highlighting weather effects. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NQ (Nasdaq Futures) analysis: Energy heats up, Tech cools down as rotation pressure buildsNasdaq futures (NQ) are trading around 24,844, modestly lower on the session. The broader S&P 500 heatmap shows internal divergence rather than broad liquidation, while crude oil futures (CL) are trading near $66.46, up about +2.17% on the day, confirming renewed interest in the energy complex.This is increasingly a rotation story, not a panic story.What the 1-day heatmap revealsTechnology is internally mixed but leaning soft:NVDA -0.94%, AAPL -0.60%, MSFT -0.20%Semiconductor names broadly redGOOG +0.40% and META +0.37% helping stabilize communication servicesFinancials are mostly red, with V -1.04%, MA -1.80%, and WFC -1.51%.Meanwhile:Energy is firm, with XOM +0.79% and CVX +1.18%Utilities and select defensive groups are greenWMT +0.77% holding up on the defensive sideThis confirms selective capital rotation rather than index-wide risk aversion.Confirmed Sector Phase Alerts1) Energy Sector – Heating UpCrude oil is pushing higher today, but more importantly, energy equities are attracting steady participation even when oil has been range-bound in recent sessions.What changed Capital is rotating into energy equities based on cash-flow resilience, dividend yield appeal, and balance sheet strength. This looks like allocation-driven demand rather than short-term speculative trading.Why it matters Energy is benefiting from multiple independent drivers:Relative strength vs growth sectorsNarrative shift toward tangible economy cash flowsYield and income appeal in a more selective marketWho is early vs late Early: Value and yield-focused allocators rotating out of tech into energy. Late: Growth-heavy portfolios still underweight energy vs benchmarks.Phase: Heating UpThis aligns directly with crude’s strength and the positive performance in major integrated names today.2) Technology Sector – Cooling OffWhat changed Relative performance in technology has weakened, especially in semiconductors. Leadership has narrowed, and participation quality has deteriorated compared to earlier cycles.Why it matters This reflects real positioning shifts, not just price noise. Capital appears to be rotating away from high-beta growth and into sectors with earnings visibility and tangible cash flow.Who is early vs late Early: Institutional allocators trimming technology exposure. Late: Momentum and retail investors still overweight mega-cap growth.Phase: Cooling OffThis cooling dynamic is consistent with NQ’s current intraday behavior, where sellers are probing but not yet achieving a full breakdown.Developing Signals3) Financials – Watch for Early AccumulationOversold relative readings suggest potential early accumulation. However, sustained inflows and confirmed leadership have not yet materialized.Phase: Potential Early Accumulation (Unconfirmed)4) Consumer Staples / Defensive – MonitoringInitial rotation interest is visible, but flows are not yet strong enough to confirm a clear phase transition.Phase: Monitoring5) Real Estate / Utilities – Overcrowded Risk WatchSome defensive sectors show extended positioning. While they are benefiting from rotation flows, there is growing risk of temporary crowding.Phase: Watch for Overcrowded ConditionsWhat underlying activity suggests for NQThe sector backdrop explains NQ’s tone:Tech cooling reduces upside momentum.Energy strength supports the broader S&P but does not directly lift Nasdaq futures.Capital rotation is creating internal divergence rather than directional collapse.Recent trading activity shows selling pressure in NQ, but downside follow-through remains limited. Lower levels are being tested, yet not decisively accepted.This is characteristic of rotation-driven weakness, not structural breakdown.Key areas to watch in NQ24,880–24,900: Near-term resistance. A sustained move back above this area would signal stabilization in tech.24,820–24,800: First meaningful support. Acceptance below this zone would confirm deeper cooling in technology.24,750: Next downside reference if semiconductor pressure expands.ScenariosBullish scenario If NQ holds above 24,820 and sector rotation remains orderly rather than expanding into broad risk-off behavior, we could see a rotation back toward 24,900.Bearish scenario If technology weakness accelerates and price begins accepting below 24,800 with sustained participation, the bias would shift more decisively bearish toward 24,750.Market bias score: -2 (slightly bearish)This reflects modest seller advantage in high-beta tech amid confirmed sector rotation out of growth and into energy. It is a lean, not a breakdown call.The score would move more negative if semiconductor weakness broadens and NQ accepts lower levels. It would improve if tech stabilizes and buyers reclaim 24,900 with conviction.What would change the viewSustained acceptance below 24,800Broad red expansion across mega-cap techOr, decisive stabilization in semiconductors and recovery above 24,900This analysis is intended for educational and decision-support purposes only. It is not financial advice. Markets are inherently uncertain, and all trading and investing decisions carry risk.For real-time trade ideas, follow-ups, and market insights across stocks, indices, commodities, and crypto, check out the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel. Trade ideas are shared for educational purposes only and at your own risk.https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +8530KGasoline -3213K vs -284K expDistillates -4566K vs -1440K expRefinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.4% expThe huge swings in this report continue. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There were weeks of breathless commentary about 5% GDP growth in the US in the fourth quarter and now here we are -- less than 24 hours from the release -- and the tracker has been revised all the way down to 3.0%.The quarter started off with a super-strong trade balance reading for October but it was all smoke and mirrors around pharma exports due to tariffs and that was followed by a normalization of trade flows in Nov/Dec. Now GDP is looking like it will be at 3.0%, which also happens to be the economists' consensus. In light of today's trade balance number and revisions lower in inventories, I see downside risks.In any case, the quarterly numbers so far in 2025 have beenQ1 2025: -0.6% Q2 2025: +3.8%Q3 2025: +4.4%A reading of 3.0% would put annual growth real growth at 2.6% on a Q4/Q4 basis. That's a nice year for the world's biggest economy but it's happening with a deficit at 6% of GDP. You could probably strip 4-5 points off GDP if the US was forced to run a balanced budget.From the GDPNow release:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 3.0 percent on February 19, down from 3.6 percent on February 18. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.2 percent to 6.1 percent and the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.02 percentage points. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump says: We have to make a meaningful deal with IranIt has to be a meaningful deal or something bad will happenConfirms he ordered 22 more B2 bombers ordered to Middle EastWe will find out about Iran in about 10 daysWe may have to take it a step further on IranThere was a kneejerk move lower in oil on this but Trump's words contrast with what he's doing. This headline in the WSJ has oil strongly bid today.The comments are also being reported in two ways. The first was the meaningful deal comment but the second was "meaningful deal or else" and that's a different meaning. That's why oil prices quickly bounced.The 10-day timeline is also notable. There is short-term speculation about action this weekend but I don't think that lines up with negotiations. I also don't think Trump wants to start a war during the Olympics. Next weekend is a different story. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -9.3%Pending sales index vs 71.8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech giants falter while consumer defensive stocks rallySector OverviewThe US stock market is encountering a mixed session today, as tech giants experience downturns, while consumer defensive stocks shine brightly. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is facing challenges with widespread declines, heavily impacting market stalwarts.? Semiconductors: Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) have seen drops of 0.67% and 1.89% respectively. The negative sentiment appears linked to concerns over supply chain issues and global economic unpredictability.? Software & Applications: Leaders such as Salesforce (CRM) and Intuit (INTU) report dips of 1.51% and 0.95%. Technology vulnerabilities, possibly fueled by investor cautiousness, are evident.In contrast, the consumer defensive sector is demonstrating resilience:? Retail & Consumer Goods: Walmart (WMT) shows robustness with a significant rise of 2.43%, suggesting increased consumer confidence or strategic business moves fueling optimism.Market Mood and TrendsOverall, today's market mood is tinged with caution, as investors exhibit wariness toward technology stocks due to ongoing volatility and sector-specific risks. Conversely, the strong showing in consumer defensive stocks indicates a flight to safety, as traders seek refuge in stability amid uncertainty.Strategic RecommendationsGiven the current trajectory within major sectors, investors should consider:? Diversification: Embrace diversification strategies to buffer against tech sector volatility, investing in consumer defensive stocks that display continued strength.? Focus on Fundamentals: While avoiding impulsive sell-offs in tech, evaluate long-term fundamentals and operational health of companies to identify undervalued opportunities.⚖️ Portfolio Balancing: Consider adding a mix of defensive stocks to your portfolio to hedge against tech sector fluctuations and harness stability-driven gains.For more insights, always stay connected with real-time market updates and trend analyses at InvestingLive.com. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Minneapolis Fed President is something of a hawk lately and is out with some comments:Fed is close on both mandates Crypto is "utterly useless"AI could be a boost to productivity in the next 5-10 yearsFed is cautious about using AI internallyFed is committed to making the best decisions based on data and analysisOptimistic about AI, almost all businesses are finding benefits from using itNothing too surprising here as the Fed is sitting on its hands until there is some kind of change in the data. We get Q4 GDP data tomorrow but even if it's a miss, it should still be healthy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Walmart shares are indicated flat in the pre-market despite what looks like a solid beat on the top and bottom line. The quarter itself was strong — but the guidance is pointing to a deceleration.Shares initially fell on the weaker guidance but the CFO said it's prudent to start the year with conservative guidance given an unstable backdrop and the market is taking that as a sign of sandbagging.As for the numbers, the Q4 comp sales came in at +4.6% in the US, matching the prior quarter and well ahead of expectations. Adjusted EPS of $0.74 beat the $0.66 from a year ago by 12.1%. Global eCommerce sales surged 24%. On the surface, this is a consumer that's still very much alive.But the forward look is more cautious. Walmart is guiding FY27 net sales growth of 3.5-4.5% in constant currency, with adjusted EPS of $2.75-$2.85. That's growth, but it's a step down from the 5.1% constant currency sales growth they just delivered in FY26. For Q1, they're guiding adjusted EPS of $0.63-$0.65, which is a narrower range that suggests management sees the consumer environment becoming less predictable.Transactions at Walmart U.S. grew 2.6% while average ticket rose 2.0% — that's a healthy split that suggests real volume growth, not just inflation. But like-for-like inflation was only +1.1%, down 20 basis points from Q3, and grocery inflation specifically was just +0.6%. That's about as close to price stability as you'll see from a major food retailer, and it supports the disinflation narrative the Fed wants to see.The income demographic trend that's been running for several quarters is still firmly in place. Walmart noted "broad-based share gains across income tiers led by upper-income households." This is the trade-down effect that makes it difficult to separate Walmart's competitive momentum from underlying consumer health.Internationally, Canada posted 4.4% comps with eCommerce up 31%, which continues to show surprising resilience in the Canadian consumer despite everything the Bank of Canada has been navigating. China comps slowed to 10.7% from 13.8%, continuing a sequential deceleration, though the absolute level of growth there remains impressive.For the Fed, the takeaway is nuanced. The consumer is spending, but the spending is increasingly value-oriented and digitally driven. Inflation in Walmart's basket has faded largely due to food but might be picking up elsewhere. General merchandise inflation of +3.2% in Q4 — up 150 basis points from Q3 — could be an early signal that tariff-related pricing pressures are starting to creep in.Shares of WMT have been on an incredible run in the past two years but now trade an an extremely high P/E, near 45x. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -2.59Exports 65.63B vs 63.95B priorImports 66.93B vs 66.53B priorIn December, Canada's merchandise exports increased 2.6%, while imports were up 0.6%. That led to a halving of Canada's trade deficit in the month. StatsCAn noted that the 1.3 cent increase in the loonie in December was the largest in 11 months and that led to higher export and import numbers than otherwise as many export products (like oil) are priced in USD.Gold was a major driver of the improvement in trade, in large part due to surging gold prices.Volatile exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts were up 20.5%.After falling in the previous two months, exports to the United States increased 1.1% in December. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.