Prior +0.3%That's a slight downwards revision to the early readings but it least shows that the euro area economy is still holding up towards the end of last year. As a whole for 2025, euro area GDP is seen increasing by 1.4%. That follows from the 0.9% growth posted in 2024.Looking at the details for Q4, household consumption expenditure contributed 0.2% while government expenditure contributed 0.1% to GDP. Gross fixed capital formation also had a positive contribution (+0.1%) and the overall figure was then slightly offset by negatives in changes in inventories (-0.1%) and exports less imports (-0.1%).Just a shortlist of the best and worst performing economies in the region (Q4 2025 year-on-year percentages), alongside the major ones:Malta (+6.4%)Cyprus (+4.5)Poland (+3.6%)Croatia (+3.3%)Lithuania (+3.1%)Spain (+2.6%)France (+1.2%)Italy (+0.8%)Austria (+0.7%)Hungary (+0.6%)Germany (+0.4%)Finland (+0.1%)Romania (-1.5%) This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The headlines here are starting to weigh on the market mood once again now as Kaabi warns that this could even drive oil prices up to $150 a barrel. He warns that while not all parties in the region have called for a force majeure yet, in which QatarEnergy has already done so, it will eventually happen.Kaabi says that Qatar would expect every exporter in the Gulf region to eventually call for a force majeure "in the next few days that this continues". Adding that as the conflict becomes more prolonged, "everybody's energy price is going to go higher".For now, he maintains that there is no damage to Qatar's offshore operations but their onshore capacity remains unclear. Kaabi says that they are still figuring out the extent of the damage and "it is not clear yet how long it will take to repair".For some context: QatarEnergy halts LNG production after military attacks on its facilitiesKaabi goes on to warn that if vessels continue to be unable to pass the Strait of Hormuz, that could see crude prices hit $150. That as it would take "weeks to months" for operations to return back to normal, even if the conflict were to end soon."Our ships are all over the place. Each ship takes a day or two and you can only load six or seven at a time."The full report can be found here (may be gated).We're seeing oil prices climb further on the headlines now with WTI crude oil hitting fresh highs of $82.85, up nearly 2% on the day. That is the highest level since July 2024.Meanwhile, US futures are also slumping with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%. In the FX space, the dollar is finding bids across the board after a slower start to the day earlier. EUR/USD is now down 0.2% to 1.1580 from 1.1610 earlier and GBP/USD down 0.1% to 1.3337 from around 1.3370 before the report. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.Non-Farm Payrolls-9K to 125K range of estimates40K-75K range most clustered59K consensusUnemployment Rate4.4% (36%)4.3% (58%) - consensus4.2% (6%)Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y3.7% (85%) - consensus3.6% (12%)3.5% (3%)Average Hourly Earnings M/M0.4% (5%)0.3% (85%) - consensus0.2% (7%)0.1% (3%)Average Weekly Hours34.4 (3%)34.3 (77%) - consensus34.2 (20%)The focus is going to be mainly on the Unemployment Rate. We can see that the expectations are skewed to the upside, so a 4.2% print would be a hawkish surprise. Fed's Waller mentioned that he might change his mind on rate cuts if the strong January data is repeated in February. The February jobs data so far has been all positive. The employment index in the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.8 vs 48.1 prior, the one in the ISM Services PMI jumped to 51.8 vs 50.3 prior. The Initial Jobless claims during the survey week were 208K, while Continuing Claims were 1822K (the lowest since September 2024). Lastly, the ADP beat expectations coming in at 63K vs 50K expected and 22K prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We're starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it's been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week.Right now, we're seeing WTI crude oil be up 0.7% on the day to $81.70 while Brent crude oil is up 0.6% near the $86 mark. All of this will just continue to reinvigorate talks of prices potentially hitting triple digits next.The way I see it, the oil market is basically a translation of the vote of confidence from broader market participants towards the US-Iran conflict. And with weekend positioning risks to consider, traders appear to be erring to the side of caution.From earlier:"The $80 mark is a key line in the sand now. A push above that suggests that traders are growing ever more nervous about the Middle East conflict. Keep below and it leans more towards simmering tensions with hopes that things will settle down soon enough.If traders get around the idea of holding above $80, I'm afraid we might get a rush to much higher levels and even see talks about triple digits quite quickly. But again, the overall situation remains fluid and we are subject to the headline developments at this stage.As we look to the weekend, there are some thing to be wary about. The first being that Gulf nations might be hitting a bit of a pain threshold soon enough. And that could see them pressure the US into taking a step back on the conflict. Yes, Iran is the common enemy in all of this. However, the chaos and constant energy disruptions might be too difficult to keep ignoring if it carries on for weeks on end.Adding to that is Trump also putting it out there that Iran wants to talk. It might be something or it might be nothing. But the point is, he has put the conversation out for the world to see. For now, he's saying that it is "too little too late". However, we all know Trump and when you combine the things he detest the most i.e. high oil prices, falling stock market, and Fed rate cut odds diminishing, he could also be nearing the infamous TACO threshold." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold got stuck in a consolidation after the selloff experienced at the beginning of the week. We saw mixed and confusing moves across different markets with crude oil being the only one making sense. The focus is of course on the US-Iran war and especially on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains virtually closed. This conflict is pushing energy prices higher, which is feeding into rising inflation expectations. That triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations, which might have weighed on gold.Today, we have the US NFP report, and although the data might not matter much right now, it might trigger another hawkish repricing if we get strong data and weigh on the market.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is consolidating around the 5,100 level with traders awaiting new catalysts for the next direction. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price probed below the key support zone around the 5,100 level again yesterday but failed to sustain the breakout. This consolidation is leading to many false moves. The sellers will want to wait for the price to break below the weekly low around the 4,995 level before piling in with more conviction to target the 4,600 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the 5,200 level to open the door for a rally into the all-time high.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the recent pullback into the 5,100 support. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the all-time highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US NFP report but continue to keep an eye on US-Iran headlines as that’s what the market is focused on. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone Q4 GDP report. This is very old data by now, so the market reaction will be muted. In fact, we are almost at the end of Q1 2026 and what happens next with the US-Iran war will shape the future data. That's why the focus is on the war.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight is going to be the US NFP report. We also get the January US Retail Sales, but that's old and volatile data that the market will largely ignore. The NFP is expected to show 55K jobs added in February vs 130K in January, and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.7% vs 3.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.4% prior.The US jobs data we got up until now has been positive and suggesting a stabilisation in the labour market after the weakness seen in 2025. The expectations seem skewed to the downside, but I can't see why. There's been clear improvement across many data points. The US economy has been re-accelerating since the start of the year and not slowing down further.I'm not sure today's NFP is going to matter much for the market given the focus on the US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices. Nonetheless, strong data could trigger some further hawkish repricing as Fed's Waller mentioned that he might change his mind on the labour market if we get another good report. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:30 GMT/07:30 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter)13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Fed's Daly (dovish - non voter)15:15 GMT/10:15 ET - Fed's Paulson (dovish - voter)16:30 GMT/11:30 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawkish - non voter)17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Schnabel (neutral - voter)18:20 GMT/13:20 ET - Fed's Collins (neutral - non voter)18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawkish - voter)18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - RBA's Hauser (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Just like the case of undershooting, we can also tolerate a small inflation overshootI haven't dramatically changed my view on policy outlookWe are still in a good placeWe have learnt lessons from 2021/22 but comparisons with the current situation are not entirely validComfortable holding gold reserves at the Fed, confident in the Fed's swap linesThe first point is arguably the most notable. If anything, it reaffirms that the central bank won't be rushing to take steps in addressing the impact from the US-Iran conflict. And I would say rightfully so. As a reminder, it's still just less than a week since the conflict started.These days with the social media revolution, the echo chamber runs so quickly that everyone wants a response or an answer almost immediately. It's the same thing like in football too. Your team might go on a 5-game win streak then lose a game after, then suddenly everyone will start piling in and talk about how the club is in "crisis". Geez.All that being said, complacency is a killer. And that is something the ECB needs to be well aware of in trying to play down any major effect from higher energy prices in the region, even if temporary. So, Sleijpen playing down their response to the Russia-Ukraine aftermath isn't exactly good form. After all, we all can still remember how the whole 'transitory' episode went. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.7%Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continue to edge up in February, with the average property price now touching £301,151 - marking a new record high. The annual growth for house prices also accelerated further to 1.3%, its strongest in four months.Halifax notes that:"The housing market built on its steady start to the year in February, with average prices rising by +0.3%, following an increase of +0.8% in January. Annual growth also picked up to +1.3%, its strongest rate for four months. Since the start of the year, average prices have increased by around £3,000, with a typical property now costing £301,151.These latest figures suggest the market has regained some momentum after a softer end to 2025. While industry data for January show a slight easing in new mortgage approvals, overall activity has continued to prove resilient.There’s no doubt that affordability remains stretched, supply is constrained, and regional disparities persist. For those without family support, the path to home ownership feels particularly challenging.However, conditions have been gradually improving, with easing interest rates and real wage growth helping to support buyer confidence. As ever, timely and expert advice remains key to helping more people achieve their goal of stepping onto the property ladder.Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainties seem set to influence the outlook for inflation and the wider economy. Against that backdrop, markets are now anticipating a more gradual path for interest‑rate reductions. If realised, the speed at which borrowing costs ease may be tempered." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level once more. It's the same approach as it has been all week with the expiries once again sitting at the figure level. The key driver of trading sentiment in FX right now is more of the general dollar mood. And that ties to the US-Iran conflict for the most part, as well as the broader risk environment.So, that will still override everything else and be the bigger influence of price action for the session ahead. However, the expiries could play a minor role in keeping price action more tight and cagey around the 1.1600 mark. That being said, the impact of the expiries on a week like this is typically more muted. So, just keep that in mind.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prediction Score: +2 / +10Primary bias right now: neutral to slightly bullish repair, but still inside a decision zone.I would change that view if price close below the Value Area Low. What's that? You will learn about that here.Looking only at this daily chart for NVDA, the biggest message from the two quarterly anchored volume profiles is that value migrated higher from one earnings quarter to the next, but price has not yet fully re-accepted that higher value.The older anchored profile appears to center around a POC near $182, with its broader value area roughly stretching from the mid-$173s up into the low-$193s. The newer anchored profile appears to center higher, around a POC near $188, with value roughly between $179 and $190-$191. That shift upward matters. It says the market, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, was willing to do more business at higher prices. Structurally, that is constructive.But the current price action is the nuance.NVDA is trading around $183.34, which puts it above the older quarter's POC area, but below the newer quarter's POC and below the upper part of the newer value area. In plain English, the stock is sitting between the old fair-value zone and the new fair-value zone. That usually means rotation and negotiation, not clean trend control.What I find constructive is the recent reaction from the lower area. The selloff pushed down toward the $179 zone and briefly into the mid-$170s, then buyers stepped in and lifted price back. That tells me the lower edge of the newer quarter's value area, plus the older quarter's lower acceptance zone, still attracted demand. So this does not look like a clean bearish acceptance below value. It looks more like a failed downside auction attempt, at least for now.Still, bulls have unfinished work.To shift this from "repair bounce" into something more bullish, NVDA needs to reclaim the newer quarter's POC near $188, then show acceptance above the $190-$191 area. If that happens, the path opens toward the overlapping higher references around $193-$194, and then potentially back toward the upper swing area in the high-$190s.On the bearish side, the key warning is simple. If this rebound stalls and price loses $182, then especially $179, that would suggest the bounce failed inside balance. In that case, the market likely rotates back toward the older lower acceptance area around $173-$174. A real acceptance below that zone would be much more damaging because it would mean both quarterly structures are losing support.So, Value Area what...? How traders use anchored volume profile in technical analysisAnchored volume profile is a way to measure where the market has done the most business from a specific starting point. Instead of looking at volume by time, it shows volume by price, which helps traders see where buyers and sellers were most active within a chosen period. The anchor point matters a lot. Many traders anchor the profile from an important event such as earnings, a major swing high or low, a breakout, or a sharp reversal. That turns the tool into a map of how the market has accepted or rejected price since that event.One of the most important levels inside an anchored volume profile is the Point of Control, or POC. This is the price where the highest amount of volume traded during that anchored period. In simple terms, it often represents the market's fairest price for that phase. Around it, traders also watch the value area, which is the zone where most of the volume was transacted. When price is trading inside that area, the market is often in balance. When price moves outside it, the market may be testing whether it can build acceptance at a new level.This is where anchored volume profile becomes useful in real trading. If price is above the anchored POC and continues holding higher value, that can suggest improving demand and stronger bullish control. If price falls back below the POC after failing to hold higher levels, it may signal rejection and a return to prior balance. In other words, the tool helps traders judge whether a move is being accepted or whether it is likely to fade.Another strength of anchored volume profile is context. A moving average can show trend, but it does not show where the market actually agreed on price. Anchored volume profile does. That is why many traders combine it with price action, candlestick structure, and support or resistance. If several important references line up near the same area, that price zone often becomes more important.Used well, anchored volume profile is not about predicting the future with certainty. It is about improving market location. It helps traders identify where value sits now, where value used to sit, and whether price is moving into acceptance, rejection, or a potential transition between the two.Back to my NVDA daily chart with those volume profilesSo the chart is not saying "strong bullish continuation" yet, but it is also not confirming a fresh bearish breakdown. It is saying:Quarter-over-quarter structure is still constructive, but near-term price is trapped in a re-acceptance test.Key levels I would respect:$182-$183: older quarter POC / immediate pivot$179: newer quarter lower value support$188: newer quarter POC$190-$191: higher value acceptance trigger$193-$194: next upside rotation zone$173-$174: deeper support / failure zoneMy bottom line: this looks more like a market trying to repair after a downside flush, not a clean trend leg yet. The chart becomes meaningfully stronger only if NVDA can hold above $182-$183 and reclaim $188-$191. Until then, expect chop and two-sided trade inside overlapping quarterly value. I’m deliberately framing this as scenario-based decision support rather than a certainty call. Last but not least, what may working for the bulls is the latest earnings from NVDA peer, MRVL, which was up apx 15% after its recent earnings. Stay tuned for more at investingLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Reuters is reporting that China is in direct talks with Iran to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for crude and Qatari LNG vessels. They cited three three diplomatic sources who are unnamed.We're on day six of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the Strait is effectively closed for business, with about a fifth of global oil and LNG supply bottlenecked. Crude tanker transits collapsed from an average of 24 per day to just four on March 1. Around 300 tankers are sitting inside the Strait right now with nowhere to go and others can't get in to load once those ones leave.Crude is up 15%+ since this kicked off and it's wildly bullish if the straight stays closed.China gets roughly 45% of its oil through the Strait so Beijing has every incentive to push hard here. There's an interesting data point overnight — a vessel called the Iron Maiden switched its signalling to "China-owner" and transited through. Reports suggest only Chinese or Iranian-owned ships are currently getting waved through.The key question for markets: does this become an actual framework for reopening traffic, or is it just Beijing carving out a special lane for itself while everyone else stays locked out? Because if it's the latter, that's not going to do much for Brent.There do appear to be some positive signals today on energy as WTI crude is down $1.57 to $79.40. Earlier US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted:To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea. India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of U.S. oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage.Trump brushed off rising oil prices today but he's always been worried about gasoline prices so we will see how long he can tolerate them. You have to wonder if $80 WTI is a line they don't want to cross. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The FT reports that pressure on the Arab Gulf states’ finances could cause them to review their overseas investments and commitments. The cost of the war is beginning to mount as Iran strikes at US allies and US bases in the region.This report is undoubtedly aimed at putting pressure on the US to either subsidize their defense or seek peace in Iran. The countries have evidently held joint discussions about pressure on budges and may reassess how they manage the economic pain, including pulling overseas investment commitments.Those commitments have been a signature achievement of Donald Trump's Presidency and this report was likely floated to get his attention.Any move to pull back Gulf investment from the US and Western assets could put serious pressure on the Trump administration to pursue a diplomatic resolution. These sovereign wealth funds are massive players in global capital markets, and even the threat of a reassessment sends a signal. Watch for any follow-through on this — if Gulf states start actually invoking force majeure or redirecting capital flows, that's a risk-off trigger across multiple asset classes.All this said, there are some real mixed signals from Gulf states. Iran is their major rival and some are surely supporting the US and Israel but they also demand stability at home and that's not exactly happening at the moment. I also question some of the budget crunch given that rising oil prices will surely benefit them. Yes, Qatar has seen LNG and other flows blocked but that should only be temporary.The leaks could also be at Iran's behest as they threaten further drone strikes and attempt to negotiate with Trump, something he conceded earlier today. I would imagine a big turn in risk assets could come if/when Trump begins to negotiate. There are no signs of that now.Notably, Bahrain's ambassador to the US wrote this today:The Iranian regime claims it targets U.S. interests,yet its missiles strike Bahrain's airport,residential buildings,hotels & now our oil facility,the backbone of our economy! Civilians & critical infrastructure are not targets,and neither are our partners This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The mood is improving in Asia.The steady selling of risk assets and flight to the US dollar has given way to some optimism in Asia and that's reflected in decent bids in the Australian dollar and broad USD weakness. That's come with some oil selling as the US floats more measures to stop the runaway rise in crude prices.Notably, gold remains strongly bid as it has all week in Asia-Pacific hours. It just hit a session high, up $31 to $51.06. S&P 500 futures are fractionally higher but the Nikkei's early bounce has given way to selling and it's down 1.3%, falling below the initial opening levels. As for the Australian dollar, it's been a challenging week to trade as it's mostly been bounced around by war and oil sentiment. Early this week, the GDP numbers were strong and combined with oil prices, that should boost the odds of a rate hike but that hasn't been reflected in the currency.Technically, AUD is showing some resilience near the best levels of the year. The lows from the early spike lower due to the war have held.That's a good sign for AUD/USD going forward as it continues to benefit from being on the periphery of the war and the tariff war. It will also benefit from China stimulus, which the NPC hinted at this week. The biggest tailwind is probably in commodity markets, where Australian has much of what the world wants, including gold.Canada's Mark Carney is visiting and helped to forge a critical minerals partnership that should clear the way for more investment. Australia has largely managed to play all sides including China and the US while avoiding turmoil in the property market. That could set up a steady bid once some of the war clouds clear. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

At some point we will all regret the "I did my own research" and "don't trust the media" stances.We certainly need more-professional media but something about social media broke everything to do with the consumption of information and we are headed towards a dark place because of it. The algo amplifies the worst stuff and leaves us grasping for verifiable hard news. That's particularly true now as everyone tries to figure out what's actually happening in Iran.Aside from the headline, Goolsbee's speech focuses on themes like central bank independence, which he says is critically important. He also said that everyone on the Fed takes the job very seriously and that the Federated structure of the central bank has worked well. All that said, those assumptions will be put to a stern test in the months ahead. US inflation is sure to rise if oil stays up here and that should really rule out Fed rate cuts. Of course, some of the Fed will argue that's a one-off factor but with tariffs, it's now a two-off and then you add in healthcare inflation and it's a three-off. At some point, that argument just doesn't work as the public continues to pay 3% more than they did last year.The Fed has missed its inflation target in every year this decade and oil alone at these levels will mean that it will do so again in 2026.So while Goolsbee laments declining trust in institutions, he voted for rate cuts and has contributed to the failure of the Fed to meet its inflation mandate. Ultimately, the 'trust in institutions' argument goes back to whether or not people did their jobs. Whether it was lying about weapons of mass destruction or transitory inflation, you can't really cry about a wake-up call for institutions. Unfortunately, the response seems to be more propaganda rather than higher standards and more-professional leadership. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Kospi opened down just over 1% after some utterly crazy moves this week. The Korean index had been swinging upwards of 10% daily, and this looks like a much more 'normal' day.Note though that the open breaks yesterday's low, which isn't a good sign.In Japan, the Nikkei opened down 1.1%. Asia stocks have shown less resilience than US markets this week on fears about energy price spikes and resulting inflation in Japan and Korea. Also, both markets have been much more frothy in the past year so there could be more of an incentive to take profits quickly.Looking ahead, even if we can hold these loses and drop volatility, we could see dip buyers step in next week.Update: There have been some nice bids since the open, trimming these losses to minimal levels. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The clock is ticking on the USMCA joint review and Scotiabank just released a comprehensive report that's worth a read."The future of [USMCA] is the single most consequential macro uncertainty facing the Canadian economy this year," the report says.The good news first: Scotiabank's baseline is that USMCA gets ratified or extended with limited adjustments that don't materially change the macro trajectory. They're explicit about this — the agreement is mutually beneficial and much of the recent US rhetoric looks like bargaining posture rather than a genuine signal to blow the deal up.But "low probability" isn't "no probability," and the report's scenario analysis shows why even a small chance of a bad outcome demands attention. Their probability breakdown: a 10% chance of renewal by the July 1 review date, 42.5% chance of renewal before the US mid-terms, 37.5% chance the parties fall into annual reviews (prolonged uncertainty but the deal stays alive), and a 10% chance of outright withdrawal. The most likely outcome is a deal gets done — it's just a question of when and how bumpy the road gets.The GDP hitSo what happens if the base case doesn't hold? Using their integrated US-Canada macro model, Scotiabank Economics stress-tested two post-USMCA failure scenarios. These aren't forecasts — they're "break glass in case of emergency" numbers — but they illustrate the asymmetry that makes this review so important.Scenario 1 is the "disruptive but contained" outcome — a 10% tariff slapped on currently exempt USMCA goods. Canadian GDP falls 0.6%, unemployment peaks at 6.5%. Painful but manageable. Growth slows without going negative.Scenario 2 is the one that matters. A 35% tariff on Canadian goods (energy and potash stay at 10%) sends the effective tariff rate on total Canadian exports to roughly 15%. GDP drops 1.9%. Canada goes into recession. Unemployment hits 7.1%. That's the scenario where the Bank of Canada cuts 50 basis points and it still isn't enough to fully offset the damage.For the US, even the severe scenario only clips GDP by 0.3% — but PCE inflation rises 0.3 percentage points, which would force the Fed to hike 25 basis points at exactly the wrong time. Nobody wins here, but Canada loses far more.Note that this isn't what they think will happen, as they're optimistic:Our baseline assumption aligns with a benign scenario whereby is ultimately ratified or extended with limited adjustments that do not materially shift the macroeconomic trajectory. This view reflects the fundamental reality: the agreement is mutually beneficial, and much of the recent U.S. rhetoric appears aimed at strengthening its bargaining position rather than signaling an intention to dismantle the deal.Where the vulnerability isThe most useful part of this report is the sectoral exposure analysis. Scotiabank mapped out which Canadian industries are most and least vulnerable by looking at two things: how much the US relies on Canadian imports in each sector, and how dependent Canadian exporters are on the US market.The "most vulnerable" corner is ugly. Electrical equipment, transportation, and manufacturing are all sectors where Canadian exports to the US dwarf the sector's domestic GDP contribution while the US has plenty of alternative suppliers. Computers, chemicals, machinery, and plastics are all in that danger zone too.For TSX investors, Scotiabank's GICS sector analysis shows Health Care, Information Technology, and Real Estate with the highest US revenue exposure (50-70%), while Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary are more domestically insulated. .The Canada-China wildcardThe report's timeline is a reminder of how much has happened in just over a year. Canada forging a strategic partnership with China on energy, agri-food, EVs, and trade prompted Trump to threaten 100% tariffs if a formal trade deal gets signed. Canada says it has no such intention, but the mere optics of it gave the US administration another lever to pull.The SCOTUS ruling against IEEPA tariffs adds another layer of legal complexity. The administration pivoted to Section 122 with 10% global tariffs — USMCA exempt — but that reprieve could evaporate if the review goes sideways. The thing is, by the time that might happen, the timeline on the 150 day US tariffs will have expired, leaving Trump with limited recourse to put tariffs on Canada.What to watchThe path from here to resolution is going to be volatile. PM Carney's Davos speech calling this a "rupture, not a transition" set the tone. Trump's response — that Canada "lives because of the United States" — tells you about the negotiating dynamic.Key dates: the first joint review hits July 1. The Section 122 temporary global tariffs expire July 24. And the 2026 US mid-term primaries loom large — economic pain for American voters could be the thing that ultimately forces a deal.For CAD traders: the Scotiabank model shows the loonie depreciating about 1% in Scenario 1 and 1.5% in the severe case, with a caveat that disorderly markets could push it further. A sharper depreciation would actually cushion the blow to exporters, acting as an automatic shock absorber.For equity positioning: if you believe in an eventual renewal — and the probabilities suggest you should — the volatility ahead could create opportunities in beaten-down trade-exposed names. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is highlighting something that markets should keep in mind: "If I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation compared to the where we were to start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%... Drone attacks have decreased by 83%... we’re now up over 30 ships [destroyed]."He also highlighted one of the goals of the operation:"[Trump] gave us another task — to raze or level Iran’s ballistic missile industrial base. We’re not just hitting what they have, were destroying their ability to rebuild...we will systemically dismantle Iran’s missile production capability for the future, and that’s absolutely in progress."How hard are they hitting? "In just the last 72 hours, America's bomber force has struck nearly 200 targets deep inside of Iran... In just the last hour, U.S. B-2 bombers dropped dozen of 2,000lb Penetrator bombs targeting deeply buried ballistic missile launchers."My guess (and it's truly a guess) is that Trump really has a 4-5 week target in mind where they will relentlessly bomb Iran and then he will declare that Iran's ability to wage war is basically toast and he will declare victory.At some point Iran will regroup but perhaps not during Trump's term. And if so, they will send in the drones or bombs here and there. Finally, there is some sense of panic about rising oil prices and there is a report that the Treasury could even short oil futures to bring down energy prices. Expect some announcements on oil price action today or tomorrow.Trump absolutely hates high oil prices and gasoline prices are how higher than at any point in his first term or this one. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Is this the start of the end? Trump also said that further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent.Trump talked about a 4-5 week schedule but he hates:High oil pricesFalling stock pricesThe market pricing out rate cuts (down to 36 bps from 60 bps before war)War in generalIn contrast to Trump, Hegseth is saying they have only just begun to fight and will fight decisively. But we all know that Trump is the decision maker. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stocks close lower but rebound into the closeCrude oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01Kristi Noem is replaced as Homeland Security Secretary.Pres. Trump not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR)European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gainsOil jumps above $78 helped by reported attack on Bahrain facilityEnergy and tech sectors drive mixed market movementsMarket Update: Gold reverses gains amid central-bank selling chatterFeds Barkin: Recent inflation data does raise doubts about whether the fight is overUS unit labor costs for Q4 2.8% versus 2.0% expected. Productivity 2.8% vs 1.9% expectedUS import prices for January 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected. Export prices 0.6% vs 0.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 213K vs 215K expectedThe USD is higher to start the North American sessioninvestingLive European markets wrap: Caution holds as focus stays on US-Iran conflictUS February Challenger layoffs 48.307k vs 108.435k priorGeopolitics remained the story of the day as markets reacted to the threat of Iranian scorched earth policy toward the US. Reports of bombings in Dubai and Bahrain and of targeted missiles at a Microsoft data center, are indicative of the war objective of the regime. Foreign ministers of Arab League member states will hold an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss Iran's attack on several countries in the region.WTI crude oil futures settled sharply higher at $81.01, gaining $6.35 or 8.51% on the day, marking one of the largest daily advances in recent months and pushing prices to their highest level since early 2025. The surge reflects a strong geopolitical risk premium in energy markets as traders react to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential for supply disruptions in key oil-shipping routes. The sharp move higher highlights how quickly crude prices can respond to geopolitical developments, with traders increasingly focused on whether the situation could threaten global oil flows.With the US jobs report scheduled for tomorrow at 8:30 AM, the did have some jobs related news events:Challengers U.S. job-cut announcements fell sharply in February with employers announcing 48,307 layoffs compared with 108,435 in January. The drop of more than 50% month-to-month suggests some easing after a surge in job-cut plans at the start of the year. Layoffs were also far lower than the 172,000 announced in February a year earlier, pointing to a less aggressive pace of corporate downsizing. The technology sector led the cuts, followed by education and industrial manufacturing, with companies citing factors such as economic uncertainty, restructuring, cost-cutting, and the impact of artificial intelligence. Despite the improvement in February, analysts note that geopolitical risks and rising costs could still lead to additional layoffs later in the year as companies remain cautious about the economic outlookU.S. initial jobless claims came in at 213,000, slightly better than the 215,000 expected, while the prior week was revised to 213,000. Continuing claims rose to 1.868 million, above the 1.85 million estimate, suggesting that while layoffs remain relatively low, some workers are taking a bit longer to find new jobs. Overall, the data remains within the recent range and does not signal a meaningful shift in labor market conditions, which is why the market reaction was limited as investors remain more focused on broader geopolitical developments and the upcoming U.S. jobs report.U.S. nonfarm productivity increased 2.8% in Q4, beating expectations of 1.9%, showing stronger-than-expected efficiency gains in the economy. At the same time, unit labor costs also rose 2.8%, above the 2.0% forecast, reflecting higher wage pressures despite the productivity improvement. The rise in labor costs was driven largely by a 5.7% surge in hourly compensation, which more than offset the gains in productivity. Overall, the report suggests that while worker productivity remains solid and supportive of growth, labor cost pressures are still building, which could keep some inflation concerns in focus.In other news U.S. import prices rose 0.2% in January, matching expectations, while the prior month was revised higher to a 0.2% increase as well. In contrast, export prices increased 0.6%, stronger than the 0.3% expected, continuing the upward momentum seen in the previous month. The stronger export price gains reflect rising prices for both agricultural and non-agricultural goods, including capital goods and industrial supplies. Overall, the data suggest moderate price pressures in international trade, with import prices coming in as expected while export prices showed stronger-than-forecast gains.From the Federal ReserveRichmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that recent inflation data raises doubts about whether the Fed’s fight against inflation is fully finished, suggesting policymakers still need to remain cautious. He noted that productivity growth of around 2.8% is solid and is helping companies maintain margins, allowing firms to absorb some cost pressures, including tariffs. Barkin added that recent employment data has been reassuring and overall demand in the economy remains healthy, even though monetary policy is still modestly restrictive. He emphasized that the Fed will continue to evaluate policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis, while also noting that higher gasoline prices could add to inflation pressures and weigh on consumer spending if they persist.President Trump moved to put a political distraction behind him by replacing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The move came after Noem damaged herself during congressional testimony this week, claiming the president personally approved a controversial $220 million ad campaign — a claim that put Trump in an uncomfortable spotlight. With oil prices surging, the Iran conflict escalating, and oil prices now running above where they were at the start of his term, the last thing the White House needed was an internal firestorm. Noem became the convenient exit.Her replacement is Markwayne Mullin, a Oklahoma senator perhaps best remembered for challenging a union leader to a fistfight on the Senate floor. Despite that colorful moment, Mullin struck a measured tone in his initial comments and is broadly expected to secure the votes needed for confirmation. Whether he proves to be a steadying force at DHS — or another headline — remains to be seen.The USD is ending the day higher vs the major currencies with the largest gains vs the AUD (+.96%) and the NZD (0.74).. The greenback rose the least vs the GBP (+0.15%) and the CAD (+0.23%). The major indices closed lower but rebounded off the worst levels going into the close. The key catalyst for the late recovery was crude oil pulling back from a session high of $82.16 down to $79.65, which shifted sentiment and gave stocks a meaningful boost into the close.In plain terms: oil spiking = inflation fears = stocks sell off. Oil pulling back = relief rally into close.The Dow's recovery from −1,162 points to −784 points at close, and the NASDAQ recovering from −307 to just −58, shows just how dramatic the intraday reversal was.The Iran factor is the macro driver. The broader news context makes clear this is a geopolitical oil shock day — Iran conflict fears drove crude higher, which spooked inflation-sensitive markets hard, particularly the Dow and Russell 2000.Why did the Dow get hit harder than NASDAQ? The Dow is heavy with industrials and traditional economy stocks — exactly the sectors that got hammered in your screenshot (Industrials −2.21%, Materials −2.27%). NASDAQ is tech-heavy, and Tech held up (+0.39%).The Russell 2000's −1.91% drop is telling. Small caps are most sensitive to domestic economic fears and credit conditions — their sharp drop signals real worry about US economic slowdown, not just geopolitical noise.Energy sector green (+0.59%) now makes complete sense. Oil spiking on Iran tensions is a direct tailwind for energy stocks — that's why SPN was the day's top performer while everything else bled.US yields moved higher which helped the USD's move to the upside:2 year yield rose 4.2 basis points to 3.584%5-year yield rose 6.1 basis points to 3.730%10 year yield rose 5.8 basis points to 4.140%30 year yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.754% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Costco came in ahead on the top and bottom line in the after-hours report today. EPS landed at $4.58 vs. the $4.55 estimate, while total revenue hit $69.60B against the $69.27B consensus. Net income rose to $2.035B from $1.788B a year ago — a 13.8% jump.The comp sales numbers are where it gets interesting for the macro view. Total company comps ex-gas and FX came in at +6.7%, well above the +5.9% estimate. Including gas and FX, comps printed +7.4% vs. the +6.72% consensus. The U.S. adjusted number was +6.4%, Canada +7.6%, and Other International +7.1%.Digitally-enabled comparable sales surged 22.6% in Q2 (21.7% adjusted), showing the consumer is still spending and increasingly doing it online through Costco's platform.Costco skews to the top side of the K-shape and that consumer is still doing well. The strength here doesn't necessarily speak to the lower end of the income spectrum — but it does tell you discretionary spending hasn't rolled over. Net sales growth of 9.1% YoY in this rate environment is notable. Membership fees rose to $1.355B from $1.193B, a 13.6% increase that reflects the recent fee hike flowing through and continued membership growth — a sign of sticky demand and consumer confidence in the value proposition.The February sales month (four weeks ended March 1) showed acceleration too, with net sales up 9.5% YoY and total comps at +7.9% (+7.0% adjusted). The company flagged that Lunar/Chinese New Year timing gave a roughly 4% lift to Other International and ~0.5% to total company for the period, so strip that out and the underlying trend is still solid.On the balance sheet, cash and equivalents jumped to $17.38B from $14.16B at fiscal year-end, with operating cash flow of $7.68B in the first half — up significantly from $6.01B in the year-ago period. Costco is throwing off cash. CapEx ran at $2.82B for the half, with the warehouse count now at 924 globally.One thing worth watching: merchandise costs as a percentage of net sales ticked up slightly to 88.97% from 89.15% a year ago — actually a slight improvement. SG&A as a percentage of sales was 9.19% vs 9.06%, a modest increase likely reflecting wage and benefits pressure, though the operating leverage on the top line more than offset it. Operating income grew 12.5% YoY.The company didn't comment on tariffs and potential refunds in its report.Shares fell 2.6% in regular trading today and fractionally lower in after-hours trade. The conference call starts shortly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.