The USD is marginally lower against the CAD today, while the greenback is generally higher against most other major currencies.Earlier in the session, the USDCAD bottomed during the late European morning, reaching a low of 1.35242. That move tested a modest support zone between 1.35219 and 1.35316, where buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher.The subsequent rebound took the pair up toward the 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart (green line on the chart below). Importantly, the price has now tested that falling 200-bar MA twice, and on both occasions sellers have leaned against the level, limiting the upside.For buyers to gain more control, the pair would need to break above — and stay above — the 200-bar MA, which currently comes in near 1.3570.On the downside, the 100-bar moving average on the same chart sits at 1.35535 (blue line on the chart below). A move back below that level would tilt the bias more toward the sellers and increase the risk of another run toward the earlier support area. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Shares of Aureus Greenway Holdings (NASDAQ: AUGS) surged roughly 55% after the Wall Street Journalreported that the company will merge with Powerus, a drone manufacturer backed by the sons of President Trump.According to the report, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. support Powerus through their investment vehicle American Ventures. The deal will take place through a reverse merger, allowing Powerus to become publicly traded on the Nasdaq in the coming months.Powerus, a West Palm Beach, Florida-based drone company founded last year, has expanded rapidly, acquiring three companies in the past six months. The three companies Powerus acquired in the past six months are:Kaizen Aerospace, Inc. – focuses on heavy-lift unmanned aerial systems (UAS) capable of carrying payloads of 500+ pounds.Tandem Defense LLC – develops tactical drone platforms designed for military and defense applications.Agile Autonomy LLC – specializes in autonomous navigation and drone software systems, including maritime surveillance technology.In short, the acquisitions give Powerus capabilities across:Heavy-lift drone manufacturingMilitary and tactical drone platformsAutonomous flight and maritime drone technologyThe strategy appears to be building a vertically integrated U.S. drone manufacturer capable of scaling production toward its stated goal of more than 10,000 drones per month,a level that would exceed the output of most U.S. drone manufacturers.Investors in the transaction include American Ventures, Unusual Machines—where Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder and advisory board member—and the Korea Corporate Governance Improvement Fund, which invested $50 million. Trump-backed investment bank Dominari Securities is also involved in the deal.The merger comes as the Pentagon ramps up its “Drone Dominance” initiative, which aims to spend $1.1 billion to procure hundreds of thousands of U.S.-made drone systems by 2027. Recent U.S. restrictions on Chinese drone imports are also creating new opportunities for domestic manufacturers.Powerus CEO Andrew Fox said the reverse merger will provide access to public capital markets to support manufacturing expansion and additional acquisitions.Aureus Greenway currently operates as a holding company for golf courses in Florida. Kaizen Aerospace appears to be a small, niche drone manufacturer with roughly 11–50 employees, focused on custom heavy-lift drone platforms rather than large-scale production, and it has not publicly disclosed unit sales figures.Tandem Defense is the military drone systems arm of Powerus, focused on tactical reconnaissance, strike drones, and autonomous swarm platforms for defense applications.Agile Autonomy provides the autonomy software and maritime systems capability within the Powerus ecosystem, enabling drones and unmanned vessels to operate together in multi-domain defense and surveillance missions.How ever did they know? Incredible. Remember when Ivanka Trump released her fashion brand and the scrutiny it received when her father, Donald Trump, became president?Key points of the storyIvanka Trump ran the Ivanka Trump brand, which sold clothing, shoes, handbags, and jewelry through major retailers such as Nordstrom, Macy's, and Amazon.After the 2016 United States presidential election, critics raised ethics concerns, arguing that her position as the daughter of the president could create conflicts between business and government influence.Some retailers dropped the brand in 2017, including Nordstrom, citing declining sales (though the move became politically controversial).Around the same time, Kellyanne Conway told viewers during a TV interview to “go buy Ivanka’s stuff,” which led to a formal ethics complaint because federal officials are generally prohibited from endorsing private products.In 2018, Ivanka announced she was shutting down the Ivanka Trump brand to focus on her role as a White House adviser.Bottom lineThe issue became a high-profile ethics debate about whether family members of a sitting president should run commercial businesses that could benefit from political visibility.PS You can get the same hat the Pres. wears golfing and at official events at his website for only $55. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 has been surprisingly resilient last week despite the surging oil prices and the global risk aversion. That resilience seems to have finally waned after oil prices surged into triple digit territory and the prospects of a quick end to the war dimmed. The S&P 500 broke below the December lows today and opened the door for a retest of November lows around the 6,530 level. The longer this war drags on, the worse the consequences will be for the economy and the market as growth expectations would turn negative and the Fed would not be able to act fast amid the inflationary pressures from higher energy prices. Traders continue to be laser focused on de-escalation as that would trigger a massive relief rally in the market. Trump said on Truth Social today that oil prices will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over. Reading between the lines, it looks like we are reaching Trump's pain threshold given the triple digit oil prices and weakening stock markets.What a de-escalation could look like though? It could be Trump saying that the nuclear threat is over or that they reached all their goals in their military operation. That would mark the start of de-escalation, and the market will react to it quickly. The bias for now remains neutral to bearish. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 finally broke through the December lows and almost reached the November lows in the Asian session. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the 6,540 support to position for a rally into the 6,760 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 6,400 level next. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the market opened lower today and extended the losses into the 6,585 level before pulling back. If we get a pullback into the resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 6,540 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 6,900 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 6,760 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Crude oil is higher to start the day, and that shift is weighing on broader risk sentiment. US stocks are lower, US yields are higher, and the USD is firmer, reflecting the market’s reaction to rising energy prices and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.At the bottom of the hour, G7 officials are scheduled to meet to discuss oil reserves, with chatter in the market about a coordinated release to help ease supply concerns. The Trump administration has indicated it is not currently considering a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Despite criticism of the Biden administration for drawing down reserves, the current administration also did not rebuild the SPR when crude prices dipped near $55, leaving reserves relatively low. Even so, any coordinated release could provide temporary relief, as markets are clearly searching for catalysts that might ease the pressure from rising oil prices.On the economic calendar, data is light today. The only notable release is the US Employment Trends Index at 10:00 AM, which largely repackages previously released labor market data, including Friday’s weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. Last month’s index came in at 105.06.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is now in its blackout period ahead of the March 18 FOMC meeting. The base case remains no change in policy, as officials remain concerned about inflation risks—particularly if higher oil prices feed into broader price pressures. The counterargument is that elevated energy costs could also act as a tax on growth, slowing economic momentum in the months ahead.From a technical perspective, the EURUSD extended its decline to a new low for the year and the lowest level since November, reaching 1.1508. Below that, the next downside targets come in at 1.1490 and 1.14678, both lows from November. On the topside, 1.1554 to 1.1576 represents the first key resistance zone.The USDJPY surged to 158.89, testing a key swing area from January. That move brings the pair closer to the January 23 high at 159.216, a level that remains a major technical hurdle. The pair has since pulled back slightly heading into the US session, with support seen at 158.36 followed by the 158.00 level.The GBPUSD followed a similar path to the EURUSD early in the session, falling below a swing area between 1.32979 and 1.33058. The pair reached a low of 1.3282 before rebounding back above that zone. Momentum has since shifted modestly higher, with price breaking above the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.33436. That level now becomes a key barometer for buyers and sellers. If the upside momentum continues, traders will look toward 1.3375 (38.2% retracement), the 100-day moving average at 1.33946, and the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.34058 as the next resistance targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:G7 members, IEA reportedly to discuss on joint release of emergency oil reservesOil price surge relents as G7 mulls coordination with IEA to release emergency oil reservesOil prices ease after record jump as G7 considers emergency reserve release. Is it enough?Everything that Trump hates is what is happening in marketsJapan reportedly calls on oil storage bases to prepare for release of stockpilesBahrain's major oil refinery also reportedly struck by Iranian drone attackEuropean indices continue to tumble as Middle East conflict weighs furtherEurozone March Sentix investor confidence -3.1 vs -5.0 expectedGermany January industrial orders -11.1% vs -4.5% m/m expectedGermany January industrial production -0.5% vs +1.0% m/m expectedMarkets:WTI crude oil up 12.7% to $102.62, Brent crude oil up 12.4% to $104.58US dollar up across the board but off early highsCAD leads, EUR lags on the dayEuropean stocks sold heavily once again, S&P 500 futures down 1.2%10-year Treasury yields up 4 bps to 4.17%Gold down 1.6% to $1,083, Silver down 1.3% to $83.25Bitcoin up 2.3% to $67,490The main story is in the oil market as prices surged higher once again after the weekend. At one point, crude oil was looking poised for its largest one-day gain ever with WTI crude running hot at around $116 at the tail end of Asia trading.It took a timely "leak" by the G7 ahead of the meeting between finance ministers later today, in saying that they will coordinate with the IEA to release emergency oil reserves to the market. That brought about some instant relief but all it has done is just take oil prices off the boil. The temperature in the room is still raised and relatively hot.WTI crude oil dropped from $116 to $102 but is still seen consolidating around $103 to $106 after. The key threshold to watch is to keep above the $100 mark. That will continue to signal that traders are not convinced by the G7 and IEA narrative, even with the release this time around set to eclipse that seen in 2022.Unless the situation in the Middle East cools, it will be tough to imagine this being nothing but a plaster to plug the hole on the dam. That especially since it will take weeks for the energy disruption to correct itself in the region and also the crude oil supply here will also take weeks before reaching refineries and being made for use. In the meantime, expect prices at the pump to stay higher until the situation changes.In other markets, the dollar is also bid across the board again but off earlier highs. EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.1507 earlier in the day as higher gas prices continue to weigh at the European economy, before recovering to around 1.1560 now - still down 0.5% on the day.Meanwhile, USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 158.45 but the high hit 158.90 earlier as we continue to hover near intervention territory. The loonie is the exception as the currency is booster by higher oil prices with USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.3537.In the equities space, stocks continue to be hammered lower in Europe but at least it is off opening lows. The losses were over 2% in the opening hour but that is cooling a little on the day at least. Still, it's been a tough six trading days for European indices in wiping out the gains for the year. The DAX is down 1.6% and CAC 40 down 1.9% today currently.Elsewhere, precious metals are also seeing volatile trade still as the push and pull continues. At the balance, gold is keeping lower with price down 1.6% to $5,083 and silver down 1.3% to $83.25 currently. As for the bond market, inflation fears continue to trump safety flows as Treasury yields continue to ramp higher to start the new week. 10-year yields are up another 4 bps to 4.17% currently with the earlier high touching 4.21%.It's all on watching for the G7 finance ministers meeting later at 1230 GMT next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Before the war started, I mentioned that a US-Iran conflict would likely have disastrous effects on the markets and the global economy due to stagflation risks. The reason is simple: severe oil supply disruptions raise costs across the economy, reduce consumer spending and business investment, create inflation, and slow economic growth.Central banks cannot fix the root problem (shortage of oil) but they can use monetary policy to either support the economy or slow inflation. The problem is that they are cornered right now. If they cut rates to support the economy, it could lead to more serious problems with inflation in the future, especially after five years of above target inflation. If they hike rates, they could exacerbate the negative impact on the economy and trigger a recession. If they do nothing and let the economy weaken hoping for the event to be "transitory", we could still end up in a recession.The market has recently pared back rate cut bets for most major central banks, but traders have also priced in high chances of rate hikes, which just looks overblown. If central banks hike rates because of this negative supply shock, a recession would be almost guaranteed as stock markets would fall hard and economic activity would slow enough to tip the labour markets over. Unfortunately, they can't even cut until the shock is over because after five years of above target inflation, the risk is that they trigger another inflationary spiral. The only thing they can do is to wait and hope it ends quickly, which is not a good strategy but it's the only one they have right now... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak NFP report on Friday was basically ignored as the market focus remains on the US-Iran war. The NFP was also completely the opposite of what the other jobs data have been pointing to, so it’s hard to trust it. Traders are now laser focused on de-escalation as that would trigger a strong relief rally in risk assets which is likely to weigh on the US Dollar. Trump said on Truth Social that oil prices will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over. Reading between the lines it means that once they declare that the nuclear threat is over or that they reached all their goals, it would mark the start of de-escalation and the market will react to it. INR:In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar. Lat week, the bearish momentum increased substantially due to strong risk aversion in the markets amid the US-Iran war. The RBI intervened after the Rupee tumbled to new record lows, but the central bank’s action was once again useless as the currency sank to another record low today. A de-escalation could give the INR a boost in the short-term which will likely be a good opportunity for traders to buy the dip in the USDINR pair as the main uptrend will likely remain intact. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR is approaching the upper bound of the rising channel. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the top trendline to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the lower bound of the channel.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the next trendline around the 91.00 handle.UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get Indian CPI report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices jumped above 100$ per barrel today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and the market feared that the conflict could extend beyond what was previously expected. The momentum picked up already on Friday after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that prices could surge to 150$ on a prolonged war. The path of least resistance remains to the upside amid the war and the virtually closed Strait of Hormuz. Traders are now laser focused on de-escalation as that would trigger a massive selloff in oil prices. Trump said on Truth Social today that oil prices will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over. Reading between the lines, it looks like we are reaching Trump's pain threshold given the triple digit oil prices and weakening stock markets.What a de-escalation could look like though? It could be Trump saying that the nuclear threat is over or that they reached all their goals in their military operation. That would mark the start of de-escalation, and the market will react to it quickly. For now, they are trying to stop the momentum and stabilise prices with short-term actions like the release of emergency oil reserves. In fact, the news of G7 countries mulling coordination with IEA to release emergency oil reserves led to a quick drop in oil this morning which is now trading near the opening gap. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil opened higher today and extended the gains into the 119.00 handle before pulling back. We can expect the buyers to step in around the 95.00 area with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 80.00 region. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add as the buyers will look for a bounced around the 95.00 support zone, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the minor upward trendline around the 82.00 level.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we don’t have other clear levels where to lean on except the 95.00 support zone and the 4-hour trendline. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside until we get a de-escalation. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 4.2No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to 7 March. Sentix notes that the decline here was the "first indication of the economic situation following the outbreak of the Iran war".Adding that:"This casts considerable doubt on the recent upturn in the EU. The energy price shock and geopolitical risks are dampening the previously increased optimism for the Eurozone economy."The expectations index also fell sharply from 15.8 in February to 3.5 in March. Meanwhile, the current situation index showed a modest decline from -6.8 last month to -9.5 this month.Well, the surge in TTF gas prices has been unkind to Europe in the past and this may just be the start. At around €60/MWh, it's the highest since January 2023 and that is after prices have cooled following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It's a far cry from the heights seen during that particular conflict three years ago though, which peaked at €346/MWh. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The bleeding continues after a terrible period last week, which saw major indices in Europe wipe out their year-to-date gains in just a matter of days. That even after having hit fresh record highs in the week before the US-Iran conflict starting up. Here's a snapshot for the day and how it all factors in since the war started:Germany DAX -2.4% (-9.1% since 27 Feb)France CAC 40 -2.4% (-9.1% since 27 Feb)Spain IBEX -2.5% (-9.5% since 27 Feb)Italy FTSE MIB -2.5% (-8.8% since 27 Feb)That is a lot of pain to deal with in a short span of time. The chart for French stocks looks to be one that is taking an escalator up before the elevator down:The drop since the end of February now brings the French benchmark index to its lowest since September last year. That after having shown much resilience in brushing off political concerns and fiscal risks towards the end of last year. Now, everything is just being reset.It's not as bad for the other major indices on the charts. However, it is worth keeping an eye out for German stocks next. The DAX index looks like it might be on the verge of breaking down. And if that happens, it could start to trigger even more pain in stocks across Europe as investors have to dig deep in trying to ride out the Middle East conflict.The key line in the sand is that 23,000 level at the moment. If that breaks more meaningfully, it will be tough to pick at support levels next for German stocks.That especially since the surge in oil and gas prices is weighing across multiple sectors, stretching from airlines to autos, and even the likes of financials and chemicals/manufacturing. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's a tough one, not least when the euro is also under heavy pressure amid surging gas prices. That as the energy disruption continues to permeate, with Iran striking key energy facilities across Gulf nations still. The latest being Bahrain as seen here earlier.The SNB seemed like they were comfortable enough to want to draw a line near 0.90 for EUR/CHF last week. That comes amid their verbal intervention here, followed by a bid up in the pair to just above 0.91 shortly after at the time.However, all of that is now looking to be thrown out the window as EUR/CHF breaches below the 0.90 mark. On some accounts, that is the lowest in the pair since the rug pull in 2015. Otherwise, it's a fresh record low for the pair as the Swiss franc continues to run higher amid geopolitical tensions.With there being no precedent for judging moves on the way down, the best we can do is to look into key round figures as potential psychological support levels for the pair. In that sense, it is all about identifying where might the SNB look to redraw the line in the sand.That is now the main thing to keep an eye out for in the currency pair, that is if this break of 0.90 holds through the day.In having to deal with deflationary pressures again recently, a stronger currency will not do the SNB any good in trying to dig themselves out of the rabbit hole once again. It's a familiar road and one that they have been accustomed to for the longest of time.The Covid pandemic gave them an out but now, we're starting to move back towards a call for unconventional monetary policy once more. And that is something the central bank will want to put off for as long as they can. From before: US-Iran tensions most untimely for the SNB This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak NFP report on Friday was basically ignored as the market focus remains on the US-Iran war. The NFP was also completely the opposite of what the other jobs data have been pointing to, so it’s hard to trust it. Traders are now laser focused on de-escalation as that would trigger a strong relief rally in risk assets which is likely to weigh on the US Dollar. Trump said on Truth Social that oil prices will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over. Reading between the lines it means that once they declare that the nuclear threat is over or that they reached all their goals, it would mark the start of de-escalation and the market will react to it. JPY:On the JPY side, nothing has changed as PM Takaichi’s opposition and, more importantly the data, haven’t been supporting a rate hike any time soon. The latest Japanese CPI fell below the BoJ’s 2% target, dealing another blow to the central bank’s efforts to further raise interest rates. The selloff in the Nikkei due to the US-Iran war and the general risk aversion is not helping either as it could weigh on economic activity the longer it drags on. The market is still pricing a rate hike in June at the earliest with a total of two rate hikes by year-end. This might turn out to be too optimistic. The Japanese yen will continue to weaken as rate hike expectations get pushed further out. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY finally reached the “intervention” level near the 159.00 handle. This is where we got the strong verbal intervention in January followed by rate checks that triggered a strong rally in the Japanese Yen and a selloff in the US Dollar. Traders will now be extra cautious, but the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The sellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the January highs to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong support zone around the 157.65 level where we can also find the confluence of the minor upward trendline. If we get a pullback into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the major upward trendline next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the next trendline targeting a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Monday begins quietly, with no significant events scheduled for the FX market, though geopolitical developments in the Middle East could influence USD movements. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index, Japan will publish final GDP q/q, and the U.S. will report the ADP weekly employment change. While this release is usually not market-moving, it may attract more attention following the latest disappointing jobs report. On Wednesday, the focus will shift to U.S. inflation data and on Thursday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak at the Financial Stability Board Payments Summit in London. The U.S. will also release weekly unemployment claims figures. Friday will be busy. The U.K. will publish GDP m/m, Canada will release employment change and the unemployment rate, and the U.S. will report several key indicators, including the core PCE price index m/m, preliminary GDP q/q, durable goods orders m/m, JOLTS job openings, preliminary UoM consumer sentiment, and preliminary inflation expectations. Also keep in mind the daylight saving time shift in both Canada and the U.S. during the week. In Japan, the consensus for final GDP q/q is 0.3% versus 0.1% previously. Fourth-quarter GDP figures are expected to be revised higher, supported by stronger income data and business investment. According to ING analysts, an increase in winter bonus payments will be reflected in labor cash earnings while real cash earnings are also likely to return to positive territory due to the recent moderation in inflation, improving household purchasing power. On Friday, the U.S. jobs report came in below expectations and was a significant disappointment, marking the largest drop since October, when the data was also revised lower. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, reflecting softer hiring conditions. Manufacturing has begun cutting jobs, and outside of healthcare, which drove much of the hiring momentum in recent years, few sectors are showing meaningful strength. Some of February’s weakness may prove temporary, particularly following a healthcare strike that reduced payrolls by about 28,000 workers, Axios noted. Even so, the broader trend points to a labor market losing momentum, with employers adding only 6,000 jobs per month on average in an economy of roughly 158 million workers. The softer labor data comes alongside weaker consumer spending and rising uncertainty related to tariffs, energy prices, and geopolitical tensions, adding another layer of risk to the U.S. economic outlook. Fed's Miran noted that he is hesitant to read too much into a single month's job report. In this context, the weekly ADP may provide some insight on whether hiring momentum continues to cool or if the February weakness was temporary, considering the blockbuster jobs report from January. In the U.S., the consensus for core CPI m/m is 0.2% versus 0.3% previously. Headline CPI m/m is expected to rise 0.3% compared with 0.2% prior, while CPI y/y is forecast to increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. Some analysts expect U.S. inflation to print above expectations, which could further reduce market bets on near-term rate cuts. Expectations for Fed easing have already shifted, with ING pricing around 40 bps of cuts compared with 60 bps before the recent military operations involving Iran. Combined with the weaker-than-expected jobs report, analysts have pushed their expected timing for rate cuts from June and September to September and December. Higher energy prices are also adding to inflationary pressures in the short term, though the full impact is more likely to appear in the March CPI data. For this week’s release, attention will focus more on tariff-related pressures on goods prices, which could keep inflation elevated. In the U.K., the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect a slightly stronger increase of around 0.3%, arguing that growth is likely to span industry, services, and construction, with both economic activity indicators and January PMIs pointing to a positive start to the year. While services continue to dominate the economy, rising manufacturing activity is also contributing to the momentum. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoE is expected to continue cutting rates over time, though there is a strong likelihood that policymakers will keep rates on hold at the next meeting. Policymakers are also likely to remain cautious due to the renewed conflict in the Middle East, which could push energy prices higher and, if sustained, place additional pressure on economic growth. In Canada the consensus for the employment change is 11.1K vs prior -24.8K and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 6.5% to 6.6%. Analysts from RBC expect a 6.7% rise in the unemployment rate and they stressed that this is likely due to a partial rebound in the labor force participation rate after an unusually large drop in January. That month saw a 25,000 fall in jobs alongside a 119,000 decline in the labour force, driven by slower population growth and the largest participation drop (-0.4 percentage points) since January 2022. Although it may seem unusual for both employment and the unemployment rate to fall at the same time, historical data shows this has occurred 13 times since 2000, usually in stable or improving labour markets rather than slowdowns. With slower population growth from caps on temporary resident arrivals, this dynamic could become more common, as a smaller labour force reduces the number of new jobs needed to lower unemployment. The expected rise in the unemployment rate for February would only partially reverse January’s drop, keeping the overall downward trend intact from the recent peak of 7.1% in September. Wage growth data will also be monitored closely, with average hourly earnings showing continued moderation, consistent with other survey results. In the U.S., the consensus for the core PCE price index m/m is 0.4%, same as the prior month. Personal income is expected to rise 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% previously, while personal spending is forecast to increase 0.3% m/m compared with 0.4% prior. January’s personal income and spending report is expected to show that consumers are still holding up reasonably well despite lingering uncertainty and softer confidence. Wells Fargo projects personal income to rise around 0.5%, supported by steady wage growth and annual Social Security adjustments, while personal spending is expected to increase about 0.4%, driven largely by continued strength in services even as discretionary spending remains subdued. Inflation, however, continues to weigh on households. Real disposable income growth is likely to lag real consumption growth, suggesting that consumer support has weakened somewhat. Looking ahead, favorable tax provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to boost household income this spring and help sustain consumption in the coming months. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence that won't change anything for the respective central banks. In fact, the focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war and surging oil prices because this is what is going to affect the economies and the data in the future. All the data we are getting now is old news at this point.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just have the NY Fed inflation expectations survey, which is not a market-moving report. Again, what matters now is how long the US-Iran war lasts. Trump focused on oil prices in his latest post which might be a sign that we are reaching his pain threshold. The US stock markets have also finally extended the losses into new lows following last week's resilience. This is turning into a very expensive war for him. Traders are now laser focused on a de-escalation signal from the US or Israel as that would trigger a massive relief rally in stocks and selloff in oil prices. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -1.9%; revised to -1.0%The drag here also comes after a more positive revision to the December numbers, so keep that in mind. Still, German industrial output was much weaker in January amid a steeper drop in production in the manufacture of metal products (-12.4%). Looking at the breakdown, the production of consumer goods fell by 4.2%, the production of intermediate goods by 2.6%, and the production of capital goods by 1.6%.The year-on-year reading shows overall German industrial production dropping by 2.6% after adjusting for calendar effects. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +7.8%; revised to +6.4%When you exclude large orders, overall factory orders in Germany were just 0.4% lower than in December last year. Once again, it reflects the volatile swings in large orders mostly with December recording a major jump - its highest level since February 2022. The less volatile three-month comparison for new orders show a 1.5% increase overall instead, that is once you exclude large orders as well.Looking at the details, the orders for the manufacture of metal products showed a 39.4% drop in January compared to December (which increased by 29.7%). So, that makes up for a large chunk of what we're seeing with the headline figure.Besides that, there were also declines in mechanical engineering (-13.5%) and in metal production and processing (-15.1%) - both of which are also attributable to the lower volume of large orders in January.All of that is offset by increases in order intake in the automotive industry (+10.4%) and in other vehicle manufacturing (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; +9.2%). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.7000 level. The pair managed to stave off a daily close below the figure level last week but the pressure is mounting amid an even bigger spike in oil prices to start the week. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance but could play a role in keeping price action hanging in there before rolling off later in the day.But as mentioned last week, there are bigger drivers of price action in the market at the moment. So, the impact of any option expiries needs to be taken in that context. As such, they are likely to be more muted as traders have to focus on the more important factors moving markets currently.The dollar and broader sentiment are both largely tied to oil prices right now. And that in turn is driven by headlines affecting the market amid the US-Iran conflict.The latest being earlier this morning as we have the G7 and IEA looking to coordinate a joint release of emergency oil reserves. That is helping to see oil prices come off the boil with WTI crude oil falling back from $116 to around $105 currently.In turn, the dollar has also seen gains ease back as well. EUR/USD is now down just 0.5% to 1.1560 from a low of 1.1507. There are large option expiries there at 1.1600 and above but not likely to feature much into play unless we get better headline developments to cause the dollar to weaken.Even AUD/USD is now nudging back above the 0.7000 mark, after falling to a low of 0.6955 earlier in the day. And because of that, it's drawing in the expiries a little as noted above.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

That as the report notes that preparations are now being made in anticipation of a prolonged de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.For some context, there are ten national oil stockpiles in Japan. And they are either managed by the Japan Energy and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) and privately operated stockpiles. The government has now instructed these storage bases to prepare for release.That as it would seem to line up with the reported joint release and coordinated effort with the IEA earlier here.The full Nikkei report can be found here (may be gated). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Even with the decline, oil prices are still some 14% higher on the day so far. It underscores the fact that that the roughly $12 drop is just a minor knock. And that typically is what the IEA reserves release tends to suggest in extraordinary circumstances. It was the same back in 2022 amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. All else being equal, it roughly acts as a $10-20 discount buffer to prices.The report earlier says that US officials are looking at a "joint release in the range of 300m to 400m barrels". That is roughly between 25% to 30% of the 1.2 billion barrels in the reserve. They said such a figure would be "appropriate". That of course is quite a staggering figure but it remains to be seen who will be the ones supplying these.For some context, the coordinated IEA release in 2022 saw 240 million barrels made available in stages. The US alone provided ~120 million barrels independently with the IEA as a collective also provided ~120 million, although half of the IEA amount is also from the US i.e. ~60 million barrels. The rest of the IEA members only joined in with an additional 60 million barrels.All that being said, what this does is it mainly just tends to suppress prices. To be more specific, it is market prices. Even if we do see prices on the charts come off the boil, the prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.The main issue with the emergency oil reserves release is that while it provides more crude oil supply, it cannot make up for more refining capacity.In essence, the move by the G7 and IEA is mostly a psychological play in hopes that market players will take the bait to speculate on lower prices amid their "big" play.But when you take that into consideration, this might just be the only major resistance standing in the way of much higher oil prices from here. And if the war in the Middle East extends for more than just four to five weeks, expect oil prices to start running away again in the same way it poked and prodded at the $80 level last week. This time around though, we might be having that same conversation but with the $120 mark instead.The only real relief for markets will come when Trump decides enough is enough, and that could definitely happen sooner rather than later as his pain points are being pressured. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Financial Times is reporting that G7 finance ministers will be discussing a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the IEA later today. That in accordance to their meeting set up from last week here. I guess this meeting just went from one that was rather lame to become quite an important one to start the week.The sources cited in the report also say that three G7 members, including the US, have already given the green light to release the reserves.As seen last week, Japan was the first to consider the idea already and they alongside the US should be one of the three members agreeing to this proposal. However, it would be bad form for Japan to act on its own as they are bound by the IEA coordination rule as mentioned at the time. So, this is basically that.All that being said, just be mindful that much of this tends to have a psychological effect more so than actual physical impact - at least immediately.Sure, oil prices did drop back with WTI crude now down to $106 from around $115 earlier. However, just be reminded that it will take weeks for the actual physical oil to reach refineries on any release. This was the same as we saw back in 2022 amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.As such, this helps to alleviate the market somewhat but it doesn't exactly address the crux of the problem. That especially if the conflict in the Middle East threatens to last for much longer than anticipated. The bigger factor to really see lasting relief in the market right now is Trump's appetite for the war to continue. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.