The US plans to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to the Gulf, boosting military readiness against Iran while keeping options open, as regional attacks intensify and ceasefire signals remain unclear.While we are all talking about the possibility of a ceasefire:Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner planUS-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open.Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demands .... this:Israel expands conflict footprint with strike on key Russia–Iran Caspian supply route.and now this. Summary:Pentagon plans to deploy ~3,000 82nd Airborne troops to the Gulf. Move expands US strategic flexibility but no Iran ground deployment decision yet. Iran continues regional attacks targeting Israel and Gulf states. Ceasefire efforts remain murky, with Iran denying talks with the US. Highlights rising escalation risk despite temporary strike pause.The United States is preparing to deploy around 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, in a move that underscores rising tensions with Iran and expands Washington’s military options in the region, according to Wall Street Journal reporting.The deployment, expected to be formalised shortly, would position one of the US Army’s most rapid-response units closer to the conflict theatre. While officials stressed that no decision has been made to commit ground forces inside Iran, the move significantly enhances President Donald Trump’s flexibility, allowing for a range of potential responses depending on how the situation evolves.The 82nd Airborne is designed for rapid deployment and crisis response, often used in scenarios requiring speed and readiness. Its presence in the Gulf signals a shift toward a more prepared and forward-leaning posture, even as the US publicly maintains that it is not currently planning a ground invasion.The development comes against a backdrop of intensifying regional conflict. Iran has continued to press its offensive, launching fresh attacks not only on Israel but also on key Gulf states including Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The widening scope of these strikes highlights the growing regionalisation of the conflict and raises concerns about broader instability across critical energy-producing regions.At the same time, diplomatic signals remain mixed. President Trump recently said the US would delay planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as “productive” discussions with Tehran. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has pushed back on that narrative, denying that any talks with the US are taking place.This disconnect between Washington and Tehran adds another layer of uncertainty for markets. While the troop deployment points to increasing military preparedness, the temporary pause in strikes and conflicting diplomatic signals suggest that both escalation and de-escalation scenarios remain in play.For markets, the key takeaway is that risks remain firmly elevated. The addition of US forces increases the potential for rapid escalation, even as diplomatic ambiguity clouds the near-term outlook. As a result, geopolitical risk premiums—particularly in oil—are likely to remain sensitive to incoming headlines. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The price of Bitcoin is trading lower on the day and has moved back below its key moving averages — the 200-hour MA at $71,082 and the 100-hour MA at $69,815. These levels have been important barometers for buyers and sellers going back to February, with the price oscillating above and below them as the market searches for direction.More recently, after breaking higher on March 9, the price reversed back lower on March 18, reinforcing the idea that rallies toward the 200-hour MA are attracting sellers. Yesterday, the price briefly pushed above that level but stalled against resistance from the March 18 highs, leading to a rotation lower. Today followed a similar script — another test of the 200-hour MA, and once again, sellers leaned.Over the last several hours, selling pressure has become more directional, with the price now breaking below the 100-hour MA at $69,815. That shift increases downside risk. If sellers can keep the price below the 100-hour MA — and away from the 200-hour MA above — it strengthens the bearish bias and opens the door for further downside momentum.On the topside, the 100-hour MA near $69,815 and the 200-hour MA at $71,082 (and falling) now serve as key risk-defining levels. Staying below those levels keeps sellers in control.On the downside, traders will target the recent low near $67,400 as the next key support. A break below that level would increase bearish momentum and shift focus toward the lower channel trendline near $62,000.What next? If the price stays below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, sellers remain in control with downside targets in focus. Move back above those levels, and the bias starts to shift back toward the buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Axios has turned into something of a White House propaganda machine in this war but this report is more cautious. It says that the US and a group of regional mediators are waiting for a response from Iran about holding peace talks on Thursday.The problem for Iran is that last month, it held two rounds of talks with the US and put some reportedly-strong proposals on the table only for the US and Israel to launch a surprise attack. That's hardly the kind of lesson they're going to forget.Since then, leaders have said they would only engage in talks after a ceasefire. At the same time, the White House says that Iran's remaining leaders are in fact already talking and have agreed to some of the things they've proposed.What the Axios report says:The US has shared with Israel its 15-point plan to end the war Netanyahu is concerned a deal will fall well short of Israel's objectiveIsraeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concession the US claimedJD Vance would be involved in talksSome Iranian officials, meanwhile, claim Trump is just trying to calm the markets and buy time for his military plans The US told the Israelis that Iran had agreed to give up its 450kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uraniumIt's not clear if the Iranian parliamentary speaker would represent IranUS and Israeli officials are planning for another two to three weeks of war regardless of whether talks talk placeI don't think this tells us much new. We know that Trump wants to make a deal but there's no sign that Iran does, aside from Trump's word.Meanwhile, Trump also just hit the wires:Iran has no leaders leftWe're talking to the right people, they want to make a dealHaving tremendous success in IranIran is talking senseIran has agreed they will never have a nuclear weaponWe are roaming free over TehranOne shot to the right spot will destroy their large power plant"Iran gave us a gift and the gift arrived today. It was a big gift worth a lot of money. It told me that we're negotiating with the right people. It was a gift related to oil and gas."We'll have control of anything we wantWe've won this warI think we're going to end it, I can't tell you for sureSaudi, UAE and Qatar have been excellent on Iran This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are increasing reports of a US military build up of potential ground forces heading towards Iran. Trump's 5-day truce is looking like a ruse to shore up defenses among Gulf allies and and bomb Iran's offensive capabilities before than can be turned against Gulf infrastructure.So what's the plan?All the speculation is about marines capturing Kharg Island and the administration itself has hinted at it but the logistics are brutal. Parachuting in strands the soldiers and to sail an amphibious ship even close, it would need to pass the Strait of Hormuz and 1000 km of hostile seas. Resupply would also be a problem. The mission has been 'leaked' by Axios but that outlet is increasingly looking like a White House misdirection mouthpiece.Invasions from Iran's west are nearly impossible as it's all mountainous terrain, the kind fought over in the Iran-Iraq war for 8 years with nearly zero progress. Elsewhere in the country is also brutal as the country is 65% mountainous and hardened.The softest part of Iran is eastern border with Pakistan and -- maybe not coincidentally -- that's where White House envoy Steve Witkoff is right now. That area is a desert wasteland, very sparsely populated and where some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded are. Near the coast is a wide, arid plain of hard-packed sand and gravel, easy to cross. The prize in that region -- as I highlighted yesterday -- is Chabahar. That's Iran's only open-ocean port. It's just 150 km from the Pakistan border and the US carried out fierce attacks on it an the nearby Konark Naval Base.If US forces can seize Chabahar, they can use it as a staging area for a ground invasion towards the Strait of Hormuz, which is 650KM away.Seizing Chabahar is logistically do-able with the roughly 10,000 soldier force that's amassing in the region and that's why it's something to put on your radar. In terms of the map, taking much of that province would also show a big win for the US in square miles. But the task would get considerably more difficult as forces move west as the only infrastructure is a narrow highway along the coast. It's like a long canyon where one side is a mountain and the other is the sea. It would be vulnerable to ambushes and the bridges would be destroyed, something that Iran has surely game planned.If you can get to the mouth of the Gulf of Oman it gets more mountainous and more treacherous but if the US can establish itself at Chabahar, it could improve their negotiating position and cut off a portion of Iran's economy. In terms of markets, the reaction would be ugly. A ground invasion would signal a long potential war and undo the positive moves from Trump's talk that the war was 'winding down' and it would forever damage his credibility in talking about ending the war. It could also trigger a full-out assault on Gulf countries and energy infrastructure. For markets, it would start to look like a replay of the Iraq war and a potentially months-long effort to re-open Hormuz. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Policy rate is the main tool but there are situations where FX intervention is more suitableNegative interest rates worked in the past but they have side effectsInterest rate differentials are an important driver of the exchange rateThe Swiss franc hasn't moved on these headlines but the pair has recently bounced after hitting the lowest since 2015: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US treasury sold $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.936%WI level at the time of the auction 3.918%Tail 1.8 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.2 basis pointsBid to cover 2.44X vs 6 month average of 2.62XDirects 16.5% versus 6 month average of 32.1%Indirects 59.3% versus 6 month average of 57.2%Dealers 24.12% versus 6 month average of 10.7%AUCTION GRADE: D-It would take a failed auction to get an F grade but the D grade is pretty low relative to recent auctions. The only saving grace is the Indirect take of 59.3% which was higher than 57.2% but that may just because the directs were so weak at only 16.5%. Dealers were saddled with nearly 25%.The 2 year yield is currently trading at 3.95% up 12.2 basis points. The 10 year yield is up 8.3 basis points at 4.419%. The recent high reached 4.44%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off 2-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week. Tomorrow the treasury will auction off of 5 year notes and on Thursday 7 year notes.Below are a review of the major components that the market will compare the actual results to the 6 month averages to determine strength or weakness from the buyers today:High Yield: 6 month average: 3.516% Tail: 6 month average: -0.2 bps Bid-to-Cover: 6 month average: 2.62x Dealers: 6 month average: 10.7% Directs (a measure of domestic demand): 6 month average: 32.1% Indirects (a measure of international demand): 6 month average: 57.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

USDJPY Technical Outlook: Key Levels to WatchSince the start of the North American session, the USDJPY has narrowed its focus for traders. On the topside, the key directional triggers remain the 100-hour moving average at 158.887 and the 200-hour moving average at 159.04 — clearing either level would shift the near-term bias more decisively bullish or bearish, respectively.On the downside, support has tightened to 158.558. This level carries added significance, aligning with today's North American session low as well as swing levels from March 9, 12, 18, 19, 20, and again today. A break below this floor would likely open the door to further selling pressure.Downside Support TargetsUpward-sloping trendline at 158.25Yesterday's swing low and top of the swing area near 157.98Base of the swing area near 157.65Last week's price low at 157.5138.2% retracement of the rally from the February low at 156.90Upside Resistance Targets200-hour moving average at 159.04Downward-sloping trendline near 159.45Last week's highs at 159.74 and 159.895Psychological resistance at 160.00In the video above, I walk through each of these levels in detail and explain the reasoning behind them. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Generally speaking, when a bellwether stock moves, the broader market tends to follow—and in today’s environment, Nvidia is that bellwether, especially within the AI-driven technology space. So what Nvidia is doing technically matters—not just for the stock itself, but for the NASDAQ and S&P as well.That’s why the recent price action carries more weight.Since the second half of 2025, Nvidia has largely been consolidating sideways, but the technical tone has shifted more recently. The stock closed below its 200-day moving average (currently $178.78) for the first time since May 2025. That’s not just a break—it’s a tilt toward a more bearish bias.Yesterday’s price action reinforced that shift. After dipping to a low of $171.72 on Friday, the price rebounded and tested the 200-day moving average. But sellers leaned against that level, using it as a risk-defining ceiling—and in doing so, kept control.On the downside, the next key level to watch is a floor near $169.55. This isn’t just any level—it has history. Lows from November 25, December 17, and February 5 all came in around that area. Each time, buyers stepped in. That makes it a barometer level.Hold above $169.55 → buyers are still defending Break below $169.55 → opens the door for increased selling pressure If that level gives way, the bearish tilt strengthens materially.Now, it’s no coincidence that as Nvidia slipped below its 200-day moving average, the broader indices followed.For the NASDAQ index, the 200-day moving average comes in at 22274.20. The index has now closed below that level for four consecutive days (working on a fifth), reinforcing the downside bias. Yesterday, the price pushed higher toward that moving average—but like Nvidia, sellers showed up early and leaned against it.Currently, the NASDAQ is trading within a tight swing area between 21803 and 21898—a classic decision zone.Above 21898 → opens the door for short covering and a corrective move higher Below 21803 → shifts focus to the next downside target near 21522 (Friday’s low) Ultimately, though, buyers need to reclaim the 200-day moving average to take back meaningful control. Until then, rallies risk being corrective.For the S&P 500, the story is similar.The index dipped to a low of 6525.11, testing a key swing level near 6521.92, where buyers stepped in and pushed the price back higher. That level is now a line in the sand.Stay above 6521.92 → support is holding Break below → likely triggers increased anxiety and downside momentum The S&P is also below its 200-day moving average (6628.03) and has closed below it for three consecutive days (potentially a fourth today). Yesterday, the price briefly moved above that level—but again, could not sustain momentum, signaling that sellers are still in control at that key technical barometer.What’s important here is the pattern alignment:Nvidia below its 200-day MANASDAQ below its 200-day MAS&P below its 200-day MAThat alignment matters. It tells you that the broader market bias has shifted toward the downside, even if support levels are still trying to hold.This is where trading becomes about clarity and discipline.Know your levels. Know your risk. And let the market tell you what comes next.What next? If Nvidia, the NASDAQ, and the S&P can reclaim their 200-day moving averages, the bias shifts back toward the buyers. If not—and key support levels start to break—then the sellers tighten their grip and the next leg lower becomes more likely. In the video, I walk through these levels step-by-step, showing why they matter and how traders are using them to define risk and opportunity in real time. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

CNN International's Frederik Pleitgen -- the CNN journalist was recently inside Iran -- is out with a report and I'll quote it verbatim:There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days but nothing that reached the level of full on negotiations, a senior Iranian source tells me. Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war, which is now in its fourth week, could be reached. The proposals being looked at are aimed not merely at achieving a ceasefire, but a concrete agreement to end the conflict between the US and Iran, the source added without going into further detail. The source refused to comment on US President Trump‘s public statements on the outreach and emphasized Iran's position has been always clear that Iran is ready to consider any viable proposal to deceively put an end to this war of choice imposed on Iran. The source said Iran is not asking for a meeting or direct talks with the United States but is willing to listen if a plan for a sustainable deal comes within reach that would preserve the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Iran is ready to provide all the necessary guarantees that it will never develop nuclear weapons but is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear technology. The source stated that any propsal has to also include termination of all sanctions imposed on the Iranian peopleThis mirrors what Iran has been saying. Trump was out yesterday saying that 15-point plan was discussed but it's hard to shake the feeling that Trump was just trying to calm down markets and find a way out of his 48-hour ultimatum.Now the good news is that Trump does seem to want to end the war quickly and bring down oil prices and keep up stock prices, so that's worth something. We're clearly close to the top of his economic-pain chart. Ultimately, I think the way out for the US is to simply walk away and leave the cleaup of the Strait to others but that might be a situation that gives Iran even more leverage and hurts the US with its allies. In any case, US stocks managed to pull back to unchanged even as oil prices remain 4% higher so there is a real rush to front-run any kind of deal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Mixed Signals Across the BoardToday's stock market snapshot reveals a mixed bag of performance across the sectors, with notable downturns in technology and resilience within the energy sector. The market's overall mood is one of caution, reflecting investors' uncertainty and varying confidence across industries.? Technology Sector: The technology sector is experiencing significant pullbacks, led by major players. Microsoft (MSFT) declined by 2.67%, and Oracle (ORCL) dropped 4.10%, indicating bearish sentiments driven possibly by wider market corrections or sector-specific headwinds.? Energy Sector: In contrast, the energy sector is a bright spot today. Exxon Mobil (XOM) surged 2.94%, and Chevron (CVX) rose 1.88%, buoyed perhaps by rising oil prices or improved forecasts for the sector. This sector's upward movement presents attractive opportunities for investors seeking stable, short-term gains.? Communication Services: Communication services are experiencing a downturn, with Google (GOOG) and Meta (META) down 2.03% and 1.64% respectively, reflecting potential concerns about advertising revenue growth or sector-specific challenges.? Auto Manufacturers: Offering a glimpse of positivity, Tesla (TSLA) managed a 0.98% gain, indicating investor faith in its growth potential despite broader market volatility.Market Mood and TrendsThe prevailing mood in the market appears to be one of cautious optimism mixed with specific wariness towards certain sectors. The losses in tech and communications services suggest investor hesitancy amidst uncertain economic indicators, while the performance in energy boosts confidence in traditional sectors benefiting from current economic conditions.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors and traders should consider rebalancing their portfolios to hedge against potential declines in technology and communication services while capitalizing on opportunities within the energy sector. With the current volatility, diversification across more stable sectors such as energy might serve as a buffer against the technology sector's downturns. Monitoring these trends closely and staying attuned to upcoming financial reports will be crucial for making timely adjustments. Visit InvestingLive.com for real-time updates and detailed analyses on market movements. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures saw a dramatic reversal yesterday, triggered by President Trump’s Truth Social comments, and the price action reflected just how fragile sentiment currently is in this market. The contract traded in an exceptionally wide range—from a high near $101.67 to a low around $84.37—a nearly $17 swing that underscores the heightened volatility tied to geopolitical headlines.From a technical perspective, that range defines the battlefield. The 50% midpoint at $93.02 becomes a key barometer for buyers and sellers. As I often say, the midpoint is not just a number—it’s a bias-defining level. If the market can reclaim and hold above it, the buyers start to regain control. If not, the sellers keep the upper hand.So far today, the rebound has stalled. The high price has reached $92.68, just shy of that midpoint. That failure to break above keeps the sellers leaning. The market had its shot—and at least for now—missed.For buyers to take more control, they need to do more than just poke above $93.02. They need to get above and stay above that level, and then build momentum toward the next targets: the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which currently come in near the $95 area (±$0.20). Those moving averages are not random—they are trend-defining and risk-defining tools that traders around the world are watching. A move above them would shift the short-term bias and likely trigger additional upside momentum.On the downside, the focus shifts to a well-defined swing area between $89.89 and $91.45. This zone has acted as a magnet for price over multiple sessions going back to March 7–8, with both swing highs and lows forming there. That history gives it weight—it’s a borderline level.Earlier today, the price dipped below that zone, reaching an intraday low of $88.50, but sellers could not extend the move. That inability to sustain downside momentum led to a rotation back higher—an early sign that sellers, while still in control, are not dominating.Putting it all together:Below $93.02 (50% midpoint) → sellers remain in control Below $95 (100/200-hour MAs) → downside bias stays intact Holding above $89.89 → gives dip buyers a defined risk level This is where the trade becomes tactical. If the price can stay above $89.89, dip buyers—especially those leaning on continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East—have a clear place to define and limit risk. That’s the key: know where you’re wrong before you get in.However, until the market can reclaim the midpoint and push above the moving averages, rallies risk being corrective rather than the start of a new trend higher.What next? If buyers can take the price above $93.02 and hold it, the focus shifts toward $95 and beyond. If not, and the price rotates back below $89.89, the sellers will look to reassert control and push back toward the lows.In the video, I walk through these levels step-by-step and show exactly why traders are reacting to them—and how they define risk in a market that is being driven as much by headlines as by charts. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is non-stop talk of insider trading in markets, including a viral report about how volumes in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump's post about talks with Iran.At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume and then at 7:05 am, Trump posted the announcement.Now that story got plenty of attention but one that hit at nearly the same time: The enforcement chief of the SEC quit abruptly after just six months on the job because she wanted to go after insider trading.Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct including in cases that touched the president's circle, but faced resistance from SEC chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican political appointees.Two of the cases that were cited were from cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun and another involving Elon Musk.Normally, I'm one to quickly brush aside all the talk about 'manipulated' markets and insider trading because it's genuinely unhelpful to making clear-headed decisions but this war is a mess. There is so much disinformation and there are telltale signs of insider trading. There is also a sense that no one is at risk of prosecution.That's an ugly mix and it risks being institutionalize. That's the kind of thing that would kill short-term trading on macro and events. It argues for taking longer-term position or seeking markets where there is more information fairness. The good thing about FX is that the market is so big that insiders can't move it but that's not the case in other markets and I can't see it getting better any time soon. There is such a dash to get rich now that risks collapsing faith in some capital markets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -10Services +9 vs -8 priorManufacturing shipments -2 vs -13 priorThis is a nice bounce and the zero reading on the headline is the best since February 2025.Current Conditions:Shipments: -2 vs -13 priorNew Orders: +4 vs -9 priorEmployment: -2 vs -7 priorBacklog of Orders: -10 vs -14 priorCapacity Utilization: -5 vs -12 priorVendor Lead Time: +13 vs -1 priorLocal Business Conditions: -5 vs -15 priorCapital Expenditures: -6 vs -5 priorFinished Goods Inventories: +5 vs +7 priorRaw Materials Inventories: +4 vs +11 priorEquipment & Software Spending: -8 vs -8 priorServices Expenditures: -14 vs -20 priorWages: +14 vs +18 priorAvailability of Skills Needed: -12 vs -15 priorPrice Trends (12-month % change):Prices Paid: 6.11% vs 6.52% priorPrices Received: 4.85% vs 4.25% priorNew orders flipped positive for the first time in recent months. Vendor lead times surged, suggesting potential supply-side tightening. Services spending remains deeply negative. Firms still expect price growth to moderate over the next 12 months, though prices received accelerated in March. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Services reading the lowest since April 2025Prior was 51.2Manufacturing 52.4 vs 51.3expectedPrior manufacturing was 52.2Composite 51.4 vs 52.3 priorEmployment fell for the first time in over a yearCompanies’ expectations for output in the year ahead deteriorated slightly in MarchSlower growth and falling orders, especially in terms of exports, were commonly blamed on subdued confidence among both consumer and businessPrices paid for inputs meanwhile spiked higherChris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Companies are reporting a hit to demand from the additional uncertainty and cost of living impact generated by the conflict. Travel, transport and tourism related issues are compounded by financial market jitters and affordability constraints, notably including concern over the impact of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and supply chain delays. “Companies are meanwhile building safety stocks amid concerns that the war may lead to more protracted supply issues and price rises while trimming headcounts to reduce overheads. “The PMI data are indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.0%, with a modest 1.3% expansion signalled for the first quarter as a whole. The survey’s price gauges meanwhile point to consumer price inflation accelerating back to around 4%, hinting at a growing risk of the US moving into an environment of stagflation. “The Fed will therefore need juggle these intensifying upside risks to inflation against the growing risk of the economy losing growth momentum, with much depending on the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices and global supply chains.”This is one of the earliest indications since the war and there isn't a big shift in manufacturing or services, which is a positive sign for the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Ready to act against inflationary pressures stemming from developments in the Middle East to deliver price stability over the medium termTask of mon pol is to provide clarity on the pursuit of price stabilityUpside risks to price stability mounting due to the events in the gulfCurrent market pricing is for 69 bps of rate hikes this year with an 80% chance of the first hike coming on April 30. I see that date as an advantageous one for the BOE because if the Iran war is resolved by then, they can wait, if not they can act.Cable bounced yesterday but is down 50 pips to 1.3373 today. The pound is relatively stable since the start of the war but it's a country that imports a lot of energy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD has continued to show buying interest on dips, with the pair finding support against its 100-hour moving average in both the early Asian session and again during the early European session. That moving average — currently at 1.37258 — has become a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers.So far, buyers are leaning against that level and holding control.However, if sellers are to regain momentum, they would need to break and stay below the 100-hour moving average. Doing so would shift the short-term bias more to the downside and open the door for a deeper correction.Looking below that level, there are additional layers of support that traders will be watching closely: The 200-hour moving average at 1.3701 An upward sloping trendline from the March low, which was tested at yesterday’s session lows and attracted buyers That trendline now comes in near 1.3680 and risingThese levels collectively form a defined support zone, and as long as the price remains above them, buyers can continue to argue they are in control — at least for now.On the topside, the key focus remains on the 1.3752 level, which represents the high from early March and the highest level going back to January 23. That level has proven to be an important ceiling for the pair.In trading yesterday, the price briefly broke above that resistance, reaching a high of 1.3754, but the breakout lacked follow-through. The move quickly reversed — in part triggered by the Trump Truth Social post — leading to a sharp rotation lower.That failure to extend higher was the first warning sign.In trading today, buyers made another attempt. The price moved back above 1.3752 and extended to 1.37608, but once again, momentum stalled and the pair rotated lower.That repeated inability to sustain gains above resistance is a disappointment for buyers and suggests that upside momentum is not yet convincing.What next?For buyers to take more control, they need to get and stay above 1.3752. A sustained move above that level would open the door for further upside extension and signal a more confident breakout. If the price continues to fail above that level, the market risks slipping back into a more neutral or corrective phase, with sellers looking to push back toward the moving average support zone. Bottom lineBias remains tilted to the upside, supported by buyers leaning against the 100-hour MA But… upside conviction is lacking, as seen in repeated failures above 1.3752 The pair is at a decision point: Above 1.3752 = momentum breakout potentialBelow 1.3725 and especially 1.3701 = sellers regain controlIn the video above, I walk through these technical levels in detail — highlighting the areas traders are watching, reacting to, and using to define risk, bias, and targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

After Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran were negotiating a “total resolution” of the Middle East hostilities, despite having threatened attacks on Iranian power plants over the weekend, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures rose, along with gold and cryptocurrencies, while oil prices and Treasury yields fell sharply.The problem is that this optimism could be short-lived, as Iran has denied any negotiations with Washington, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — along with news that the U.S. is sending thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the region — suggests that no real de-escalation has occurred.And if the conflict drags on?Besides the rising number of casualties and infrastructure damage, the main risk is a spike in inflation from high energy prices, which drive the cost of most goods and services, along with disruptions to helium and aluminum supplies, and, even more concerning, roughly a third of global fertilizer production.And judging by last week’s central bank meetings, regulators are starting to prepare for the worst.The Federal Reserve has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward, from 2.4% to 2.7%. Rate projections remain unchanged, though the estimate of the neutral rate has edged up slightly, from 3% to 3.1%. Some FOMC members have even discussed the possibility of rate hikes, though that is not the base case.In Europe, several officials at the European Central Bank have mentioned the possibility of a rate hike as early as April, and in a stress scenario, inflation could reach 6.3% within a year. The Bank of England is moving in a similar direction. Meanwhile, Australia has already raised rates again by 25 basis points to 4.1%.What if the conflict ends in the next week or two?The Eurozone’s preliminary Composite PMI for March fell to 50.5, showing slower overall private sector growth, driven by a sharp drop in services activity to 50.1. This suggests that some damage has already been done from higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.Fitch Ratings warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until June, sustained high energy prices, tighter financial conditions, and slower global growth could put serious pressure on credit ratings across multiple sectors. In other words, the energy crisis could potentially trigger systemic issues.If the conflict ends soon, these risks would diminish, giving markets a chance to recover. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

It's impossible to decide who to believe and trust right now. Trading feels like an impossible battle of fighting the propaganda departments of Iran, the USA and Israel. Trump himself is a shameless information manipulator and this entire war was started during the same kind of 'talks' that are supposedly going on now. On the Iran side, it's entirely unclear who is in charge and officials everywhere have claimed Mojtaba Khamenei is either dead or badly injured.Yet we're supposed to believe a report in an Israeli newspaper -- citing unnamed sources -- that he approved negotiations with the US to end the war?At the same time, Trump delayed a self-imposed 48 hour deadline that he set. But the deadline was set while negotiations had already started, according to Trump's own timeline of events?And the cherry on top is that the 5-day timeline ends when markets close on Friday and just as US marines are set to arrive in the region.Meanwhile, we hear about Iran's terms to end the war and they are way beyond what the US (or anyone) might accept. They're acting like their either 1) winner the war, or 2) read to fight for many months.Now Iran has been hit with 9000 strikes, which is an extraordinary amount of firepower. That compares to the 8-12,000 missiles that Russia has fired in the entire Ukraine war. It's an overwhelming force so maybe they are trying to negotiate and save face.In it all, the market appears to be showing increasing skepticism that we're heading for a solution. S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% and near a session low just ahead of the open. Treasury yields are higher across the curve again today, with 2s up 7.5 bps to 3.90%. Nearly everyone thinks oil is being manipulated but WTI is still up $3.75 to $91.88.Now we will settle in and wait for another day of tweets, leaks and 'sources' reports and try to find a silver of truth in some of it.Right now this seems to be the only way to trade: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF — like the other major pairs yesterday — experienced sharp two-way volatility following President Trump’s post pausing strikes on Iran energy facilities. The headline shifted sentiment quickly, sending the dollar lower after it had been bid higher during the Asian and early European sessions.However, as the pair moved to session lows, buyers leaned against a key swing area between 0.7834 and 0.7840 — a level that had acted as resistance earlier in the month but has since transitioned into support. That area once again proved its importance as a risk-defining floor, helping to stall the decline and spark a rebound back to the upside.In trading today, the rally initially ran into resistance near the 100-hour moving average at 0.78924, which capped gains during the late Asian session and pushed the price back below the 200-hour moving average at 0.78804. But sellers could not maintain control. After finding support near 0.7860, the price began to rebuild, and in early North American trading has now moved back above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages.That shift puts the bias back to the upside — but with conditions.For buyers to stay in control, the price needs to remain above the 200-hour MA at 0.78804. That level is now the short-term barometer for bullish versus bearish bias. On the topside, the next key target comes in between 0.7900 and 0.7905. A break and sustained move above that area would open the door for a retest of yesterday’s highs and the broader highs from last week. If that resistance holds, the pair remains stuck in a broader range — with resistance near 0.7905 and support at 0.7834 — while the moving averages act as the short-term rudder guiding directional bias. In the video above, I break down these levels from a technical perspective — focusing on the areas traders are watching, reacting to, and using to define risk. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.