Current conditions -81.0 vs -78.0 expectedPrior -77.8Outlook 10.5 vs -6.0 expectedPrior -10.2The current conditions reading might be poor, falling to its weakest since December last year. However, the good news is that the outlook reading has rebounded back to positive territory. And that likely reflects the optimism tied to the latest US-Iran developments.While German investor sentiment remains in the dumps for now, the expectation is that things should improve as the Strait of Hormuz looks to reopen at some point after the US and Iran signs off on a framework agreement.US president Trump has claimed that it will be "fully reopened" on Friday but Iran has said that they might need time to manage things as they have to also "clear off mines". Both sides will likely agree to a 30-day period to gradually reopen the waterway, all the while Iran continues to maintain control over traffic flows. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe surprising US-Iran breakthrough last Thursday triggered a selloff in crude oil as traders started to unwind the hedges and positioned for lower prices on expectations of resumption of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming months. As mentioned last week, the downside was more likely as the upside was capped by the risk of Fed tightening into a negative supply shock and potentially triggering a recession or Trump caving in and making a deal. We got the second scenario which is certainly better for the global economy. The natural target now should be the pre-war levels around the 70.00 handle, all else being equal. The risks in the short-term is that things between the US and Iran break down and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, so traders will have to keep a close eye on that. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude is approaching the key 78.00 support zone. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the upper bound of the range around the 115.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the pre-war gap around the 68.00 handle. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we were to get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new highs.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have another minor trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If we get a pullback into the gap, we can expect the sellers to step in to target a break below the 78.00 support and extend the drop into the 68.00 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline around the 90.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, the US-Iran “peace deal” is expected to be signed. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.7%HICP +3.2% vs +3.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.8%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWAfter the surprising US-Iran breakthrough on Thursday, gold has erased all last week’s losses as traders pared back rate hike bets on expectations of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns. In the short-term, the focus continues to be on this new development, so we can expect the bullish bias to hold (all else being equal). Looking ahead, the FOMC decision tomorrow could be a major catalyst.The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the easing bias from the statement. At this meeting, we will also get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where inflation is expected to be revised higher while unemployment lower in the short-term. The focus will be mostly on the dot plot which is expected to show no cuts this year. All of this is expected and already priced in.We can expect gold to get a significant boost if the Fed maintains the easing bias and/or one rate cut by year-end. The hawkish surprise could be the Fed signalling one or more rate hikes by year-end in which case we can expect gold to sink. Looking ahead, the risk is that negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends that boosts economic activity further requiring rate hikes anyway. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold avoided a complete breakdown after the surprising US-Iran breakthrough. The price has risen above the broken upward trendline opening the door for a bigger pullback into the major downward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the downward trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the rally into the 5,400 level next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have the 4,350 resistance zone and the minor downward trendline that the price will need to break to open the door for a bigger move into the 4,700 level next. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance and/or the trendline with a defined risk above the trendline to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for breaks to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline around the 4,700 level.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price started the week with a positive gap and stalled at the resistance. The gap might act as support now. If we get a pullback into the 4,250 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 4,700 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see a break lower to pile in for a drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Cannot reveal governor Ueda's viewBut his broader view remains the same as he has discussed beforeUeda's hospitalisation is short-term, don't see any impact on monetary policy conductWell, it has only been about a week since Ueda took his leave of absence. So, it is a fair assumption to think that the decision today was already well accounted for. That especially as the central bank has been managing that with their communication over the past month or so.It will be more interesting to see what will happen after the summer. The BOJ is not expected to make any policy changes in July but the odds of another rate hike are closer to a coin flip by the time we get to the October meeting. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Further rate hikes will depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditionsThere is risk of underlying inflation deviating upwards to the level above the price targetImportant for underlying inflation to stabilise around 2% levelUncertainties remain with regards to situation in the Middle EastNeed to pay close attention to how said developments will affect economy, pricesPace of any future tightening will also depend on Middle East developmentsNeed to examine likelihood of realising baseline scenario in considering timing, pace of future rate hikesWage-price mechanism has taken root, aligned with 2% price target in recent yearsWell, it took them long enough to finally deliver this rate hike that was arguably pending since January. At the time, the BOJ thinking was to wait for the result of the spring wage negotiations to justify their decision. But then came along the US-Iran conflict. Dum, dum, dum.As such, that made the optics of this decision look much worse than it does - at least relative to the situation with Japan's economy and fiscal position.The only good news now is that hopefully lower oil prices will help alleviate some of the pain faced by households. And more importantly, hopefully that will help with the bottom line for Japanese firms, especially the small-to-medium enterprises. Otherwise, they will be forced to eat the costs and that may threaten to deliver weaker wage growth for the coming fiscal year.USD/JPY continues to trade at 160.20, little changed from before Uchida began speaking. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian final CPI and the German ZEW index. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted. Moreover, we can expect sentiment indices like the ZEW or PMIs to improve in the next months on easing rate hike expectations and lower energy prices. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the only highlight is the US housing starts and building permits report. This is not market-moving data and won't change anything for the Fed. The markets are now focused on the positive effects stemming from the US-Iran deal and the official end of the war. Expectations of lower oil prices are easing inflation concerns and leading to a dovish repricing in interest rates. The short-term effect is certainly positive for growth and risk assets like stocks are the main beneficiaries. Looking ahead, the question will be whether this negative supply shock turns into a positive demand one where economic activity strengthens significantly and keeps inflationary pressure high eventually forcing the Fed to intervene with rate hikes. This is likely going to be the next tail risk for markets.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS10:55 GMT/06:55 ET - ECB's Escriva (neutral - voter)13:10 GMT/09:10 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)19:05 GMT/15:05 ET - ECB's Sleijpen (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

She says that she won't offer any comments on the BOJ decision until after the press conference by deputy governor Uchida later.As a reminder, BOJ governor Ueda wasn't present at this meeting as he was admitted to the hospital last week here. As such, Uchida will also be filling in for the BOJ press conference at the bottom of the hour.Anyway, it is a fair assumption that Katayama was questioned about if the ministry of finance might feel compelled to act given the market response to the BOJ decision. USD/JPY continues to trade above 160.00, in line with where they decided to intervene the last time at the end of April.And as a reminder, that also came two days after the BOJ decision at the time. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Accessing US equity markets remains a structurally broken process for most international participants. Non-US residents routinely face steep capital minimums, complex cross-border wire transfers, and exclusionary onboarding practices from legacy brokerages. These barriers effectively lock a massive demographic out of the world's most liquid equity markets. Addressing this inefficiency requires a shift in infrastructure. Fractional shares funded directly through stablecoin rails present a practical approach to reducing these barriers. Bypassing traditional fiat bottlenecks allows capital to move efficiently across borders, establishing a more equitable framework for international equity participation.Lowering the Capital Barrier for Global ParticipantsGlobal wealth disparity is often reinforced by the mechanics of the financial system itself. Data from a recent JPM report indicates that while individuals control roughly $150 trillion in global wealth, retail portfolios remain severely under-allocated to alternative and complex assets, hovering around 5%.High minimum ticket sizes and structural friction are the primary culprits. Traditional brokerages rarely cater to micro-investing from emerging markets because the unit economics of processing international fiat transfers simply do not work.Binance is aiming to lower entry barriers by launching US equities trading with fractional shares starting at just $5. This model allows global users to access over 7,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs without the traditional capital barriers. The fee structure reflects an emphasis on accessibility, featuring zero commission trading alongside a flat $0.35 platform fee for orders under $350, or a 10 basis point spread for larger volumes.This approach directly targets the exclusionary nature of legacy finance. Yi He, co-founder and Co-CEO of Binance, frames the initiative around a broader objective, "We have set out to reach the next 3 billion users, and to do that, we need to make it simpler for users to access opportunities across asset classes, diversify their portfolios, and move more easily between traditional investing and on-chain finance. That is what a multi-asset financial super app should help people do."Stablecoin Funding: Bypassing the Traditional Banking PipelineThe logistical challenge of funding an international brokerage account usually involves SWIFT transfers. These transactions carry high fees and take days to settle. Operating through stablecoin rails bypasses the traditional banking pipeline entirely. Binance users can now execute US equity purchases using USDC, USDT, and BNB. Integrating digital assets as the funding mechanism eliminates the delay between capital allocation and market execution.This operational advantage serves crypto-native users in emerging markets who lack access to US dollar banking but hold stablecoins. The shift toward digital settlement is gaining significant institutional recognition. A Standard Chartered analysis projects that tokenized assets will reach $4 trillion by 2028, with stablecoin market capitalization hitting $2 trillion as retail and institutional participants increasingly rely on them for cross-border settlement.Using stablecoins to fund equity purchases effectively creates a parallel financial pipeline. The process connects isolated digital wealth with traditional equity markets, allowing participants to purchase shares of major companies without ever converting their capital back into fiat currency through a local bank. Sale proceeds settle directly in USDC, keeping the capital fluid and ready for deployment within the digital asset ecosystem.Extended Access and the 24/5 Trading StandardTime zone constraints present another structural disadvantage for international participants. The standard New York trading session caters poorly to users in Asia or the Middle East. Binance addresses this by offering 24/5 trading for select equities, giving global users the flexibility to react to market movements during their local hours.Consolidating crypto and traditional equities into an integrated platform removes the friction of managing siloed applications. This convergence aligns with broader market expectations for constant market access. A Citi Institute study estimates that if just 10% of US retail investors adopt on-chain solutions by 2030, it could generate $2.6 trillion of demand for tokenized public equities.Binance intends to bridge this gap further with the upcoming launch of bStocks. These tokenized securities will represent select US stocks and ETFs as BEP-20 tokens on the BNB Chain, issued through an Abu Dhabi Global Market regulated entity. Providing a 1:1 conversion between traditional shares and tokenized assets establishes the infrastructure for a programmable, always-on trading environment.The Path Toward Unified Market InfrastructureMerging $5 fractional shares with stablecoin settlement rails indicates a broader shift toward a unified global financial system. The current divide between digital assets and traditional equities forces users to navigate inefficient and disconnected networks. Integrating these environments enables the market to move toward a more inclusive architecture. Offering zero-commission fractional trading funded by digital dollars bypasses the legacy constraints that have historically marginalized international participants. This development points toward a future where geographic location and local banking infrastructure no longer dictate a person's ability to participate in global wealth creation. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Not ruling out further tightening if neededUnderstand that current situation is difficult for householdsBut that is why it is important for us to get on top of inflationReports of a peace deal in the Middle East is good newsFlow of data has been consistent with our expectationsMore comments from the Q&A session:We already had an inflation problem before the Middle East conflictIf oil prices settle down and supply chains settle, that will help with inflation so that it doesn't get super-chargedBut we still need to ensure that the inflation problem before the war is addressedUnless we have low and stable inflation, we won't have a good economyPeople should not be surprised to see a slowdown in the economy as we address inflationThis has to happen, we have to get inflation back downUnderlying inflation is "dead on where we thought it would be"Cannot rule out that if inflation doesn't respond to the way we expect it to do, then we might have to do moreThere's nothing from Bullock that really stands out too much.The signal is clear that the RBA is stepping to the sidelines in wanting to assess the overall situation further for now. As for their next step, it will depend on how economic developments play out.She is not going to explicitly rule out rate hikes nor will she choose to play down the need for rate cuts next year. And that fine line is what the central bank will be keeping as they move forward with policy setting for the months ahead.As things stand, traders are pricing in just ~13 bps of rate hikes by year-end. However, that pricing shifts back to pricing in ~1 bps of rate cuts by August next year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY has been poking and prodding at levels above 160.00 since last week. And traders are yet to find much conviction to take things to the next level. Intervention risks are very much heightened at this stage, with current levels being where Tokyo last decided to take action at the end of April.To their part, Japan's ministry of finance had been arguably waiting to see how markets will respond to the BOJ decision today. That was part of the playbook for April, so will it be the same this time around? Today, the central bank delivered a 25 bps rate hike as expected in bringing interest rates to 1% while also announcing a pause to their bond tapering from April next year.But so far, there doesn't seem to be much pressure being alleviated off the yen currency with USD/JPY keeping in the realms above 160.00 still.Despite more optimistic developments from the US-Iran conflict, the currency pair continues to stay underpinned for the most part.The yen will only be able to find relief once there is actual movement along the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, it's hard to see how things will change for the Japanese economy in reality. Even if oil prices may reflect one thing, it's a different story when supply remains an issue and consumer price pressures continue to grow.That not to mention that the Takaichi trade is still running in the background, with the war making things worse as the government had to compile an extra budget to offer fuel subsidies. And with higher rates now, the fiscal pressure is certainly mounting.If the yen is not able to get off the floor even on any good news, that's not a positive sign whatsoever.It feels like only a matter of time before the ministry of finance has to decide to step in again. They stepped in two days after the BOJ decision in April when USD/JPY raced above 160.00. So, there's some precedent to them acting after markets don't respond to the central bank decision as they would hope.But even then, it seems like any intervention efforts will just be a mere speed bump or a temporary diversion.Unless the fundamentals really change and the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens properly, the path of least resistance is still for a move higher in USD/JPY. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1540 and 1.1600 levels. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance but could limit price movements for the currency pair in the session ahead at least.The ones at 1.1600 especially could help to keep a lid on price action until we get to US trading, with the dollar having swung back to a firmer position in overnight trading.The prevailing risk mood is also more tepid and tentative today, following the gains in Wall Street yesterday. So, that's not leaving all too much to work with as we look to European trading later.Besides that, just be wary on USD/JPY as yen-tervention risks will now be heightened as the yen can't get off the floor even after the BOJ decision.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 4.35%Decision today was unanimousHeadline and underlying inflation are still too highHeightened uncertainty remains on economic and inflation outlookResolution of the conflict in the Middle East is at an early stageThere are plausible scenarios where inflation is higher, activity lower than envisaged under the May forecastsGlobal oil supply issues will take some time to resolveThat will maintain upward pressure on global energy prices and inflationInflation is likely to remain high for some timeRBA focused on ensuring that inflation does not become embedded as impact from higher oil prices pass throughAppropriate to leave the cash rate target unchanged while assessing the response to previous interest rate rises and the impact of the oil supply disruptionFull statementThe decision is very much expected as the RBA signals that they are likely to stay on hold for some time now.The more important detail is the language on inflation I would say, and that suggests the central bank will be in no hurry to act next again. That especially as Middle East developments are also looking up, at least for now, with the US-Iran framework agreement in focus.Whether or not the Strait of Hormuz reopening will really help and by how much, is a question for another day for markets and the world. That especially as we still don't know what the real traffic flow will be and not the one that the US and Iran will look to advertise and upsell in this deal.Circling back to the RBA, they used a couple of these terms in May:"Likely to have second-round effects on prices for goods and services more broadly""Inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and that the risks remain tilted to the upside"Both descriptions of the inflation outlook were removed from the June statement and reworded as such:"Higher fuel prices.. passing through to the prices of other goods and services, so inflation is likely to remain high for some time""Inflation is still too high" while emphasising on having raised the cash rate three times already this yearAUD/USD sits at 0.7050 on the day, little changed from before the decision. A non-event as you would expect. So, let's wait to hear from Bullock later next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In May, the RBA raised the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.35% then signaled that they would be pausing here.As a reminder, the central bank has been one of the early movers in having raised interest rates since February. So far this year, they have delivered 75 bps of rate hikes.The decision there was not solely tied to Middle East developments, as inflation pressures had been relatively stubborn in Australia.So, the surge in oil and gas prices after just adds to the mix and reaffirms their decision to tighten policy further in recent months.But after three consecutive decisions in raising the cash rate, they are due for a pause this month. The signal from the May decision was this statement passage:"Having raised the cash rate three times, monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment."Markets are also not pricing for any short-term changes by the RBA currently. And that view is reinforced by the US-Iran framework agreement this week. That sits well with the RBA baseline forecast that "the conflict is resolved soon and fuel prices are to decline".The odds of a rate hike are closer to a coin flip only by the time we get to November/December. So, expect the decision today to be more or less a non-event. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

BOJ hikes to 1%, pauses bond taper from April 2027 and flags inflation overshoot riskBank of Japan 25bp rate hike to 1%, as widely expectedGoldman cuts Brent forecast to $80 for 2026, $75 for 2027 on Hormuz dealChina May data: industrial output beats but retail sales post first fall since 2022BOJ set to hit 1% but vote split, bond taper pause and July signals are the real storyChina data May 2026: Industrial output +4.5% y/y (expected +4.2%)China house prices May 2026 -3.5% y/y (prior -3.5%)Oil price path to the $60s pre-war levels could take years despite Hormuz deal, analystsPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8108 (vs. estimate at 6.7605)JGBs steady, Nikkei eases from record high as BOJ rate decision loomsGM in talks with Lockheed to make weapons parts as Pentagon seeks to restockAnalysts back Iran deal as oil price catalyst but warn peace dividend won't be instantBOJ hike certain, RBA and Fed on hold as Iran deal reshapes central bank outlookNew Zealand data: May 2026 Food Price Inflation +1.0% m/m (prior flat at 0%)Hedge funds dust off pre-war playbooks as Iran deal reshapes market outlook - noodle pivotBarclays sees gold hitting $4,900 as Iran-driven correction fadesBank of Japan today - preview - set to lift rates to 31-year high as Iran deal clouds pathExplosions heard in the Strait of HormuzHormuz reopening road map: mines, insurance and stranded ships slow the path for oil flowHormuz reopening framework a fragile first step, says S&P Global-BOJ hikes to 31-year high as Iran deal lifts regional sentimentBank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, a 31-year high, and announced a pause in JGB tapering from April 2027; the yen barely moved with USD/JPY holding above 160.00The Nikkei and Topix dipped earlier in the session before bouncing on the BOJ decision headline; South Korean shares extended gains tracking Wall Street's Iran deal rallyGoldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 from $90 and its 2027 average to $75 from $80, bringing forward Gulf export normalisation to end-JulyChina's May data showed industrial output beating at 4.5% but retail sales posting their first annual decline since the pandemic, down 0.6%, while fixed asset investment deteriorated sharplyChina's new home prices fell at a slightly faster monthly pace in May, with the property sector continuing to grapple with fragile demand despite tentative stabilisation in larger citiesThe Bank of Japan delivered its widely anticipated rate hike on Tuesday, lifting its policy rate to 1% from 0.75% and taking borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995. The decision was accompanied by a confirmation that the BOJ will pause its programme of monthly JGB purchase reductions from April 2027, fixing the buying pace at around 2 trillion yen per month. The inflation outlook was characterised in notably direct terms, with the BOJ flagging upside risk to its 2% CPI target and projecting a year-on-year increase clearly above that level in the period ahead.The yen's reaction was muted. USD/JPY held above 160.00 in the wake of the decision, a reminder that the market has long argued the currency needs real economy momentum and a credible path of sustained tightening rather than incremental moves to stage a durable recovery. The Nikkei and Topix had drifted lower ahead of the announcement before bouncing on the decision headline, with both indices ending the session off Monday's record highs.Broader regional sentiment remained constructive, underpinned by the US-Iran peace framework. South Korean shares extended the prior session's gains, tracking Wall Street's overnight rally as the deal continued to lift risk appetite across Asian markets.Goldman Sachs added further weight to the oil market's repricing, cutting its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel from $90 and its 2027 average to $75 from $80. The bank brought forward its assumption for Persian Gulf export normalisation to end-July from end-August, reflecting growing confidence in the pace of Hormuz reopening. It was Goldman's second downward revision to its oil price forecasts in a week.China's data gave markets more to digest. Industrial output rose a stronger-than-expected 4.5% in May, buoyed by AI-driven export demand, but retail sales fell 0.6% year on year, their first decline since the pandemic. Fixed asset investment contracted 4.1% in the year to date, well below forecasts, and property investment extended its deterioration with new home prices falling at a slightly faster monthly pace. Larger cities showed tentative signs of stabilisation but the broader sector remains under pressure from weak household borrowing appetite and subdued consumer confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The decision is a clean hawkish package with one dovish structural element. The rate hike and the explicit commitment to continue raising rates are unambiguous. The bond taper pause from April 2027, fixing monthly JGB purchases at around 2 trillion yen, is the complicating factor: it removes a source of upward yield pressure at the long end and could be read as a concession to government concerns about borrowing costs, raising questions about the BOJ's operational independence even as it tightens policy rates. The rejection of board member Tamura's proposal to continue tapering beyond April was a 7-1 vote, indicating the pause has broad board support. The inflation language is notably direct, with the BOJ flagging a risk of CPI deviating above target and projecting a year-on-year increase clearly above 2%. Real rates remaining negative in the short and medium term keeps the path of further hikes intact. Markets will now focus on whether the Uchida press conference opens or closes the door on a consecutive July move.-- The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, a 31-year high, and announced it will pause its JGB taper from April 2027, while warning CPI could exceed its 2% target. Summary:The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate target to 1% from 0.75% at its June meeting, the highest level since 1995 and the first move since December 2025The board voted to pause its JGB purchase tapering programme from April 2027, fixing the monthly buying pace at around 2 trillion yen; until then, the existing plan to reduce purchases by 200 billion yen per quarter continues through January-March 2027The taper pause decision passed 7-1, with board member Tamura's dissenting proposal to continue tapering by 200 billion yen per quarter from April 2027 onward rejected by the majorityThe BOJ will discontinue interim assessments of the bond taper plan and stands ready to increase JGB purchases or conduct fixed-rate operations if long-term rates rise sharplyOn the economy, the BOJ said Japan is developing broadly in line with its baseline scenario, the risk of significant slowdown has decreased, and the wage-price mechanism remains intact; CPI is projected to accelerate to clearly above 2% year on yearThe BOJ flagged upside inflation risk, citing faster-than-expected pass-through of oil prices into consumer prices across a wide range of goods, and said underlying CPI is expected to reach its target-consistent level between the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75% on Tuesday, lifting borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995 and reaffirming its commitment to continued tightening as inflation risks build across the Japanese economy.The rate decision was accompanied by a significant announcement on bond purchase policy. The BOJ confirmed it will pause its programme of monthly JGB purchase reductions from April 2027, fixing the buying pace at around 2 trillion yen per month from that point. The existing tapering schedule, reducing monthly purchases by 200 billion yen per quarter, remains in place through January-March 2027 without change. The pause decision passed on a 7-1 vote, with board member Tamura the sole dissenter, having proposed that tapering continue at 200 billion yen per quarter beyond April. The BOJ also said it will discontinue its practice of conducting interim assessments of the taper plan, while retaining the flexibility to increase JGB purchases or deploy fixed-rate purchase operations in the event of a rapid rise in long-term yields.On the economy, the BOJ assessed that Japan is developing broadly in line with its baseline scenario, that the risk of significant slowdown has diminished compared with earlier in the year, and that the mechanism linking wages and prices in moderate tandem remains intact. Real interest rates were described as negative in the short and medium-term zone, underpinning the case for further adjustment.The inflation language carried a notably direct tone. The BOJ flagged that oil price pass-through into consumer prices has been progressing at a faster pace than anticipated and risks spreading across a wider range of goods. Underlying CPI was described as carrying upside risk relative to the 2% target, with the bank projecting a year-on-year increase clearly above 2% and expecting underlying inflation to reach target-consistent levels between the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027. Accommodative financial conditions are expected to be maintained even after the rate change, the BOJ said, with further adjustments contingent on developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll have more to come on this separately. ADDED, here: BOJ hikes to 1%, pauses bond taper from April 2027 and flags inflation overshoot riskBackground:BOJ set to hit 1% but vote split, bond taper pause and July signals are the real storyJGBs steady, Nikkei eases from record high as BOJ rate decision loomsFormer BOJ economist Kameda says hike to 1%Daiwa sees BOJ June hikeBOJ to raise short-term policy rate to 1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is Goldman's second downward revision in a week, which gives the cuts additional weight as a directional signal rather than a knee-jerk reaction. The bring-forward of Persian Gulf export normalisation by a month, to end-July from end-August, is the mechanical driver of the forecast change and implies a more optimistic read on mine clearance, insurance and shipping logistics than much of the market commentary has suggested. Brent at $80 for Q4 2026 would still represent a meaningful premium to pre-war levels near $72, reflecting the residual uncertainty Goldman is building in. The 2027 average of $75 for Brent and $70 for WTI points to a sustained oversupply dynamic once inventories begin rebuilding, consistent with the multi-year normalisation timeline other analysts have flagged. For oil majors, the revision reinforces the rotation trade already underway.--- Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 from $90 and its 2027 average to $75 from $80, bringing forward its Gulf export normalisation assumption to end-July after the US-Iran Hormuz deal. Summary:Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, and its 2027 average Brent forecast to $75 from $80WTI forecasts were also cut, to $75 per barrel for Q4 2026 and $70 for the 2027 averageThe revisions follow President Trump's announcement of an interim deal to lift the US naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing scheduled for FridayGoldman now assumes Persian Gulf exports normalise to pre-war levels by end-July, one month earlier than its previous end-August assumptionThe bank flagged that full details of the agreement remain unclear, and the forecasts are based on the assumption of an orderly and timely implementationThis is Goldman's second downward revision to its oil price forecasts within a week Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecasts for the second time in a week, bringing forward its assumption for Persian Gulf export normalisation and lowering its Brent and WTI targets across 2026 and 2027 in response to the US-Iran framework agreement announced by President Trump.The bank now expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from a prior forecast of $90, and $75 per barrel across 2027, revised from $80. WTI is projected at $75 for Q4 2026 and $70 for the full year 2027. The mechanical trigger for the cuts is a one-month acceleration in Goldman's assumed timeline for Gulf export normalisation, now pencilled in for end-July rather than end-August, reflecting a more optimistic read on the pace at which shipping, insurance and logistics constraints will ease following a formal deal signing.Goldman acknowledged that the full terms of the agreement remain unclear, with the forecasts resting on an assumption of orderly and timely implementation. The revision is nonetheless significant as a second consecutive weekly cut from one of the market's most closely watched commodity desks, reinforcing the directional move lower in price expectations that the peace framework has set in motion.The 2027 forecasts are consistent with the broader analyst view that a sustained period of oversupply will be required before inventories rebuild to levels that justify materially lower prices. Brent at $80 in Q4 2026 still implies a premium of around 10% to pre-war levels, reflecting the residual risk Goldman is embedding around deal durability and the pace of physical recovery in the strait. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data reinforces a China growth narrative that is increasingly uncomfortable for commodity and consumer-facing markets. The retail sales miss, the first contraction since December 2022, is not a rounding error and points to a domestic demand problem that government trade-in schemes and holiday spending have failed to arrest. Fixed asset investment falling more than twice as fast as expected compounds the concern. For oil and industrial metals, the consumption-side weakness is a headwind even as the AI-driven export surge flatters the headline. The property sector remains the structural drag, with investment down 16.2% in the year to date and new home prices still falling. The unemployment rate ticking down to 5.1% is a rare positive but is complicated by rising anxiety around AI-driven job displacement, which may itself be suppressing household confidence and borrowing appetite.-- China's May data showed industrial output beating expectations at 4.5% but retail sales falling 0.6%, the first decline since the pandemic, as domestic demand and fixed asset investment deteriorated sharply. Summary: Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, via ReutersIndustrial production rose 4.5% year on year in May, above the 4.2% forecast and April's 4.1%, driven in part by a surge in AI-related manufacturing and export demandRetail sales fell 0.6% year on year, the first decline since December 2022, missing the flat 0.0% consensus and reversing April's 0.2% gain; even the five-day Labour Day holiday failed to lift consumer activityFixed asset investment contracted 4.1% in the year to date through May, significantly worse than the expected 2.0% decline and accelerating from the 1.6% fall recorded through AprilProperty investment fell 16.2% in the first five months of the year, deepening from a 13.7% decline in the January-April period; new home prices fell at a slightly faster monthly pace in MayThe surveyed unemployment rate eased to 5.1% from 5.2%, the sole positive in the release, though worker anxiety around AI-driven job displacement is cited as a factor weighing on household confidence and borrowingA 19.4% export gain and factory-gate inflation rising to its highest since July 2022 contrast sharply with stagnant consumer inflation, illustrating the widening gap between supply-side momentum and domestic demand China's May economic data delivered a sharply mixed picture, with industrial output accelerating beyond expectations while retail sales posted their first annual decline since the depths of the pandemic, underscoring a two-speed economy in which export and manufacturing strength is increasingly decoupled from domestic consumption.Industrial production rose 4.5% from a year earlier, ahead of the 4.2% forecast and picking up from April's 4.1% reading. A global surge in AI-related investment has provided China's manufacturing sector with an unexpected buffer against the export disruption many had anticipated from Middle East turmoil, with export growth running at 19.4% year on year. That external momentum has not, however, translated into domestic spending. Retail sales fell 0.6% in May, reversing April's modest 0.2% gain and coming in well below consensus expectations of a flat reading. It was the weakest consumer outcome since December 2022, and notably occurred despite a five-day Labour Day holiday period. The government's consumer goods trade-in programme, which had provided some earlier support, appears to be fading as a stimulus.The investment picture was worse than anticipated. Fixed asset investment contracted 4.1% in the first five months of the year, more than double the 2.0% decline forecast and accelerating from the 1.6% fall recorded through April. Property investment extended its deterioration, dropping 16.2% in the year to date after a 13.7% decline in the prior period, with new home prices also falling at a slightly faster monthly pace. Weak household loan data released last week pointed to continued reluctance among consumers to borrow for property purchases amid sluggish income growth and job insecurity.The price data added to the imbalance picture. Factory-gate inflation climbed to its highest level since July 2022 while consumer inflation remained stagnant, a divergence that reflects demand failing to keep pace with supply-side expansion. The surveyed unemployment rate eased marginally to 5.1% from 5.2%, though analysts note that anxiety around AI-driven job displacement is weighing on worker confidence and may be suppressing consumption independently of the property downturn. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A clean 25bp hike with unchanged forward guidance would be the least market-moving outcome and is broadly what consensus expects. The risk events sit on either side: a 50bp move or a hawkish dissent from the reflationary wing of the board would steepen the JGB curve and put a bid under the yen, while any softening of the forward guidance language, particularly around the phrase "continue to raise rates," would be read as a dovish pivot and hit the currency. The bond taper pause is the sleeper issue. Stopping the reduction of monthly JGB purchases from April next year removes a source of upward yield pressure but raises questions about BOJ independence and the integrity of the yield curve normalisation process. Markets will be watching whether Uchida addresses it directly or buries it. A consecutive July hike remains live; how explicitly Uchida keeps that option open will be the single most traded line of his press conference. The BOJ is expected to raise rates 25bp to 1% Tuesday but markets are focused on the vote split, a possible bond taper pause from April and whether Uchida signals a consecutive July hike. Earlier:JGBs steady, Nikkei eases from record high as BOJ rate decision loomsFormer BOJ economist Kameda says hike to 1%Daiwa sees BOJ June hikeBOJ to raise short-term policy rate to 1%Summary:The BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate 25bp to 1.00% at Tuesday's meeting, the highest level in 31 years and the first move since December 2025; the decision is expected between 0300 and 0500 GMTGovernor Ueda is absent due to illness, leaving eight voters; a 4-4 split would pass the casting vote to Deputy Governor Uchida, who is presiding and will lead the post-meeting press conference from 0630 GMTConsensus points to broad support for a 25bp move, though reflationary hawk board member Asada may dissent and one or more officials could push for a larger 50bp increaseCurrent forward guidance states that given real rates remain substantially low, the BOJ will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of easing; any change to this wording would be closely scrutinisedJapanese media report the BOJ plans to pause its monthly bond purchase tapering programme from April next year, a move that could be interpreted as a political accommodation with the government and which raises questions around BOJ independence and yield curve dynamicsMarkets will focus on whether Uchida signals openness to a consecutive hike in July and how he characterises the bond purchase policy shift The Bank of Japan is set to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% on Tuesday, a 31-year high, but the mechanics of the vote, the future of its bond purchase programme and the tone of Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida's press conference are where markets will find their real direction.With Governor Kazuo Ueda hospitalised and absent from proceedings, only eight of the nine board members will vote. A 4-4 split, while not the base case, would hand the deciding vote to Uchida as the presiding officer, giving his individual position unusual market significance. Consensus points to comfortable support for a 25bp move, but reflationary hawk Asada is seen as a potential dissenter and at least one official may push for a bolder 50bp increase, which would represent a significant hawkish surprise.The forward guidance will be parsed with particular care. The current formulation, that given real rates remain substantially low the BOJ will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of easing, has been the anchor of market expectations for further tightening. Any modification to that language, however subtle, would be read as a signal on the pace and endpoint of the cycle.The bond purchase question adds a further layer of complexity. Japanese media are reporting that the BOJ intends to halt its tapering of monthly JGB purchases from April next year. Stopping the reduction in bond buying could be interpreted as a concession to government pressure at a politically sensitive moment, raising legitimate questions about the bank's operational independence and complicating the yield curve normalisation that has been a central plank of policy since the exit from yield curve control. Whether Uchida addresses the issue squarely or deflects will itself be a signal.Investors will also be listening for any explicit indication of a consecutive July hike. With the Iran peace framework potentially easing the inflationary impulse that has been one of the BOJ's clearest justifications for tightening, how firmly Uchida keeps July on the table will be the single most consequential line of his conference. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.