Summary:Apple to begin assembling some Mac mini units in Houston in 2026Production to take place at a Foxconn facilityMove aimed at meeting local U.S. demandMajority of Mac mini output to remain in AsiaPart of broader supply-chain diversification trendApple plans to shift part of its Mac mini production to the United States, with assembly set to begin in Houston later in 2026, according to comments by the company’s operating chief reported by The Wall Street Journal.(gated)The move will see some Mac mini units produced at a Foxconn facility in Texas, marking a modest expansion of U.S.-based manufacturing for the tech giant. The new assembly line is intended to meet local demand, while the bulk of Mac mini production will continue in Asia.The production shift underscores Apple’s ongoing efforts to diversify its supply chain geographically. While Asia remains the company’s core manufacturing base, Apple has in recent years taken steps to broaden its footprint in response to geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts and supply-chain disruptions.By establishing a Houston assembly line, Apple can shorten delivery times for U.S. customers and potentially reduce exposure to tariff-related risks. The U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling reshaping elements of the U.S. tariff framework has added further uncertainty around trade costs, reinforcing incentives for partial localisation of production.The facility in Texas will operate in partnership with Foxconn, Apple’s long-time contract manufacturing partner. However, Apple’s operating chief made clear that the majority of Mac mini production will remain in Asia, suggesting the Houston operation will complement rather than replace existing supply chains.The Mac mini is one of Apple’s more compact and modular desktop offerings, and its assembly is less complex than that of larger devices, making it a practical candidate for regional manufacturing.The move reflects a broader industry trend toward supply-chain resilience and incremental reshoring of select production lines, particularly for products aimed at major end markets such as the United States. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China moved to restrict dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities, a fresh escalation in trade frictions amid already strained bilateral ties.Summary:China’s Commerce Ministry adds 20 Japanese entities to an export control “watch list”Measures ban exports of dual-use items to listed entities without licencesOverseas parties also barred from re-transferring China-origin dual-use items to themBeijing cites inability to verify end-users/end-uses, and frames move as curbing Japan “remilitarisation”Includes names such as Subaru, Mitsubishi Materials, Sumitomo Heavy Industries and aerospace trading unitsChina’s Commerce Ministry said it will place 20 Japanese entities on its export control list, tightening restrictions on shipments of dual-use items in a move that underscores the chill in Japan–China relations and adds a new layer of uncertainty for sensitive supply chains.Under the measures, export operators are prohibited from exporting dual-use items to the named entities, while overseas organisations and individuals are also prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating from China to those companies. Exporters will be required to apply for individual export licences, and entities may apply for removal from the watch list.Beijing said the entities were added because authorities were unable to verify end-users and end-uses for dual-use items—language typically used to justify tighter controls on goods with potential civilian and military applications. The ministry also framed the measures as aimed at curbing Japan’s “remilitarisation” and alleged nuclear ambitions, while insisting the steps are legitimate, reasonable and lawful.At the same time, China sought to ring-fence broader trade ties, saying the measures would not affect “normal” economic and trade exchanges, and adding that Japanese entities operating “in good faith” and complying with the law have no cause for concern.The watch list includes companies such as Subaru Corp, Mitsubishi Materials Corp, Sumitomo Heavy Industries, and aviation and aerospace-related firms including Fuji Aerospace, Itochu Aviation and Mitsui Bussan Aerospace—names that sit close to industrial, materials and aerospace supply chains where dual-use components can be embedded in otherwise commercial products.The decision lands against a backdrop of ongoing diplomatic strain, including simmering tensions since late 2025 after comments by Japan’s prime minister on Taiwan that drew sharp pushback from Beijing. Those remarks amplified longstanding Chinese concerns about Japan’s security posture and its alignment with U.S.-led regional deterrence efforts. This week’s export control action appears consistent with a pattern of using trade and regulatory tools to signal displeasure while attempting to avoid overt disruption to headline bilateral commerce.For markets, the key issues are scope and enforcement. The requirement for individual licences can slow procurement, raise compliance costs and encourage supply chain re-routing, especially where China-origin inputs are difficult to substitute in the near term. Even if Beijing maintains that “normal” trade will continue, the move raises the risk premium around Japan-facing shipments in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, materials processing and aerospace components. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s CSI300 and Shanghai Composite rallied on reopen as investors cheered the U.S. tariff ruling’s potential export relief.Summary:CSI300 +1.4%, Shanghai Composite +1.2% at openRally follows nine-day mainland holidayInvestors cite U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling as positive for exportsHang Seng reverses after Monday’s 2.5% surgeAnalysts see potential easing of U.S.–China tariff pressureChinese equities opened sharply higher on Tuesday as traders returned from a nine-day holiday break, buoyed by optimism that recent developments in U.S. trade policy could ease pressure on Chinese exports.The blue-chip CSI300 Index rose 1.4% at the open, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.2%, with buying broad-based across sectors including consumer electronics and machinery.Market participants pointed to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to annul President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” emergency tariffs as a catalyst for improved trade sentiment. Although Trump subsequently announced a temporary 15% global tariff, analysts say the reset may ultimately translate into relatively lower effective tariff rates for China compared with previous proposals.The legal ruling has injected fresh uncertainty into global trade policy. U.S. equity markets fell on Monday amid confusion over the future tariff framework. However, investors in mainland China appeared to interpret the development as potentially constructive for Beijing, particularly if it weakens Washington’s leverage in future trade negotiations.In Hong Kong, the mood was more cautious. The Hang Seng Index slipped more than 1% after rallying 2.5% on Monday in reaction to the tariff headlines. The pullback suggests some profit-taking following the prior session’s surge.The rebound in mainland shares also reflects pent-up positioning flows after the extended market closure. With global investors reassessing the implications of the U.S. court ruling, Chinese stocks may benefit from renewed expectations that export headwinds could moderate in coming months.Still, trade policy uncertainty remains elevated. While the Supreme Court decision curtailed certain emergency powers, the administration retains other legal avenues for tariffs, including national security provisions.For now, traders appear focused on the prospect that the latest shift in Washington could provide incremental relief to Chinese exporters and improve the tone of bilateral negotiations.China's best friend! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The onshore yuan hit a 2½-year high as USD/CNY fell below 6.90, with the PBOC signalling greater tolerance for strength.Summary:USD/CNY falls to 6.8954, lowest in 2½ years (since May 2023, so a bit longer)Onshore yuan (CNY) hits fresh multi-year highShanghai Composite rises 0.8% on market reopenPBOC sets firmer fix at 6.9414 with reduced dampingNarrower deviation from forecasts signals policy toleranceChina’s onshore yuan climbed to a fresh 2½-year high on Tuesday, with USD/CNY dropping to 6.8954 despite a slightly firmer official midpoint fix, underscoring growing momentum behind the currency’s appreciation trend.The move marks the strongest level for the onshore yuan (CNY) since mid-2023 and comes as China’s financial markets reopened after an extended holiday break. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, reflecting a broader risk-on tone that may be helping the yuan outperform regional peers.The daily midpoint set by the People's Bank of China came in at 6.9414, marginally firmer than the previous 6.9398. Notably, traders observed that authorities appeared to apply less “damping” in the fixing mechanism. The deviation between market forecasts and the official fix narrowed to around +250 pips from +350 previously, suggesting the central bank is allowing greater alignment with market pricing.The yuan is managed within a 2% trading band on either side of the daily midpoint. By setting a stronger reference rate and reducing the gap between model estimates and the official fix, the PBOC may be signalling increased tolerance for gradual currency appreciation.A firmer yuan reflects both domestic and external dynamics. Improved sentiment in Chinese equities, a softer U.S. dollar backdrop and renewed capital inflow expectations have contributed to the currency’s advance. The reopening of mainland markets also released pent-up positioning flows, amplifying the move.The break below the psychologically important 6.90 level could attract additional momentum-driven flows, particularly if the risk-positive tone in Chinese equities persists. However, policymakers will likely remain attentive to export competitiveness considerations, especially as global demand conditions remain mixed.For now, the 2½-year high underscores a shift in yuan dynamics, with the currency increasingly supported by market forces and a central bank appearing less inclined to lean aggressively against appreciation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s central bank kept benchmark rates unchanged for a ninth month, balancing growth support with yuan stability.Summary:PBOC keeps 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5%Ninth consecutive month of unchanged benchmark ratesGrowth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4, weakest since post-Covid reopeningYuan appreciation adds currency-stability considerationsPolicymakers balancing stimulus needs with FX and export risksChina’s central bank has left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth straight month, underscoring the delicate balance policymakers are attempting to strike between supporting a slowing economy and maintaining currency stability.The People's Bank of China held its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. The one-year rate serves as the reference for most new and outstanding corporate and household loans, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing.The decision comes against a backdrop of moderating economic momentum. China’s economy expanded 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, marking its slowest pace since authorities dismantled stringent Covid-era restrictions in late 2022. Domestic demand remains subdued as households rein in spending amid a prolonged property downturn, a soft labour market and uncertain income prospects.Beijing has attempted to stimulate activity through targeted measures, including efforts to promote services consumption in areas such as elderly care, tourism and leisure. Officials hope these segments can offset persistently weak demand for goods, particularly as the real estate sector continues to drag on broader sentiment.At the same time, currency dynamics have complicated the policy outlook. The yuan has strengthened in recent months, aided in part by a softer U.S. dollar. The central bank manages the currency within a daily trading band of 2% on either side of a reference midpoint (today's is here), and officials have recently set that midpoint stronger, moving it below the symbolic 7-per-dollar level for the first time in nearly three years.While a firmer yuan helps contain imported inflation and capital outflow risks, it also poses challenges for exporters already grappling with U.S. tariffs and intense global competition. A stronger currency could erode price competitiveness at a sensitive juncture for China’s export engine.The steady hand on interest rates suggests policymakers are prioritising financial and currency stability over aggressive monetary easing, even as growth pressures linger. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 526bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today.after maturities net drain is 926.4bn yuan, largest in more than 4 months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The ninth consecutive month without a change. More on the LPRs, and why they don't matter so much any more, here:Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, February 24, 2026 - China and Japan return This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Bank of Korea is set to hold rates at 2.50% this week and through 2026 as FX and housing risks outweigh easing pressures.Summary:All 34 economists see BOK holding at 2.50% on February 26Rates forecast to remain unchanged through 2026Won weakness and housing risks curb easing appetiteInflation at 2.0% in January, in line with targetShift from January poll that had pencilled in further cutsSouth Korea’s central bank is expected to keep its base rate steady at 2.50% at its February 26 meeting and maintain that level through 2026, according to a Reuters poll of economists.All 34 respondents surveyed between February 19–23 forecast the Bank of Korea will leave rates unchanged this week. All 30 economists who provided end-2026 projections also expect policy to remain at 2.50% throughout the year, marking a notable shift from January when a sizeable minority still anticipated at least one additional cut.The policy pause comes as authorities grapple with currency volatility and financial stability risks. The Korean won has remained under pressure, declining 5.2% since the last rate cut in May and drawing scrutiny from the U.S. Treasury. Policymakers have responded with measures aimed at curbing excessive FX volatility, including activation of a swap line between the Bank of Korea and the National Pension Service.At the same time, housing market momentum has raised red flags. Seoul apartment prices have risen for 55 consecutive weeks, climbing 0.15% in the latest week, heightening concerns about financial imbalances.Inflation, by contrast, appears contained. Consumer price growth eased to a five-month low of 2.0% in January, aligning with the BOK’s target and offering little immediate justification for policy tightening.Economists say the central bank has increasingly emphasised exchange rate stability and housing risks in recent meetings, reducing the likelihood of further easing this year. Some analysts suggest the possibility of rate hikes could re-emerge in 2027 if growth firms and asset prices continue to rise, though current market pricing for near-term tightening is seen as overly aggressive.For now, the BOK appears set on an extended hold as it balances modest economic recovery against currency and housing vulnerabilities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury led January yen rate check to steady markets during Japan’s election turmoil, Nikkei reports.Summary:U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led January yen “rate check”Action not requested by Japan, according to senior U.S. officialsMove aimed at calming instability ahead of Japan’s lower house electionYen rebounded from ~158 to ~155 per dollar after Jan. 23 checkU.S. open to coordinated intervention if formally requestedU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent personally led a January “rate check” on the yen during its sharp slide against the dollar, according to senior U.S. officials cited by Nikkei, in a move designed to stabilise markets rather than respond to a formal Japanese request.The check, conducted on Jan. 23 by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the Treasury’s direction, came as the yen weakened toward the 158 per dollar level amid political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s Feb. 8 lower house election. Officials said Bessent was concerned about broader market instability during what he described as a “political vacuum,” as well as the potential for spillovers into global bond markets.Rate checks are typically viewed as a precursor to possible currency intervention, involving authorities sounding out financial institutions on pricing were official action to occur. Following the move, the yen strengthened sharply to around 155 per dollar.According to U.S. officials, Japan’s Ministry of Finance had not requested either a rate check or coordinated intervention at the time. However, Washington would have considered joint action had Tokyo asked.The backdrop included rising long-term Japanese government bond yields, with newly issued 40-year debt touching 4% for the first time. Selling pressure spilled into U.S. Treasuries, pushing 10-year yields toward 4.3%, before retreating toward 4.0% after the rate check.Officials said Bessent believed markets were misreading signals from Japan’s bond market and feared that higher global yields could undermine broader financial stability. The action was described as consistent with a broader U.S. principle of using its economic strength to help stabilise allies.Following the landslide election victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, U.S. authorities assess that political uncertainty has receded. They have also expressed confidence in Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.While no specific measures are currently planned, U.S. officials indicated close coordination with Japan will continue. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 gold by year-end, citing central bank buying and Fed cuts, while warning of higher volatility.Summary:Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $5,400 by end-2026Central bank buying a key structural driverFed rate cuts expected to spur investor allocationsAdditional private diversification flows pose upside riskGreater volatility likely as options activity risesGold prices are set for further gains in 2026, according to a new note from Goldman Sachs, which sees bullion climbing to $5,400 by year-end.Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs Research, attributes the constructive outlook to two primary forces: sustained central bank purchases and rising investor allocations as U.S. interest rates fall.Official sector buying remains a cornerstone of the bullish thesis. Central banks continue to diversify foreign-exchange reserves away from traditional assets and into bullion, providing steady structural demand. That trend, Thomas argues, should remain intact through 2026.The second pillar is monetary policy. Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to deliver rate cuts this year, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. Historically, declining real yields and easing financial conditions have supported investor flows into precious metals.Thomas also highlights what she describes as “significant upside” risk to the $5,400 forecast. The bank’s base case does not fully incorporate the potential for further private-sector diversification into gold. Given the relatively small size of the gold market compared with global bond and equity markets, even modest reallocation flows could have an outsized price impact.However, that dynamic cuts both ways. Much of the diversification demand is expressed via call options, which can amplify price swings. As a result, while Goldman expects the broader uptrend to persist, it cautions that volatility is likely to increase.In short, the bank sees gold’s rally extending into year-end—driven by structural reserve diversification and cyclical rate relief—but with sharper price action along the way. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

After the Supreme Court curtailed key second-term tariffs, the Trump administration is turning to Section 232 to pursue new national security levies.Summary:Administration considering new Section 232 tariffs on six industriesFollows 6–3 Supreme Court ruling striking down many leviesNew 232 tariffs separate from recently announced global 15% levySteel and aluminium 232 tariffs to be revampedCompanies could face higher effective payments under revised rulesThe Trump administration is considering a fresh round of national security tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs.According to The Wall Street Journal (gated), the administration is weighing new investigations covering roughly half a dozen industries, including large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecom equipment. These levies would be imposed under Section 232, which allows the president to restrict imports deemed a threat to national security.The move comes after the Supreme Court voted 6–3 to invalidate most of Trump’s tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court ruled the president overstepped his authority in imposing so-called reciprocal tariffs on virtually all U.S. trading partners. Those measures accounted for more than half of the revenue generated by his second-term tariff regime.In response, Trump announced a new global 15% tariff that can remain in place for five months, alongside additional levies planned under Section 301 of the Trade Act. The prospective Section 232 tariffs would be issued separately from these measures.Importantly, the Supreme Court decision did not affect existing Section 232 tariffs, which have not faced serious legal challenges. During his second term, Trump expanded the scope of 232 measures beyond raw materials such as steel, aluminium and copper to include a broader range of consumer products incorporating those inputs. Exemptions have been limited, with only modest relief offered to U.S. automakers.It remains unclear when the Commerce Department will formally announce new investigations or when tariffs could ultimately be imposed. Section 232 requires a formal investigative process before duties are enacted, though once in place the president retains broad authority to modify them.The administration is also moving to revamp existing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. While nominal tariff rates on some goods may fall, the changes would apply tariffs to a product’s full value rather than only the steel or aluminium content. That shift could result in higher overall tariff payments for many companies.U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last week the administration may “adjust the way some of the tariffs are applied for compliance purposes,” signalling further technical changes ahead.Separately, the administration had already been reviewing tariffs under Section 232 for nine additional industries, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, drones, industrial robots and polysilicon used in solar panels. Some of those investigations were opened nearly a year ago and could be accelerated following the Supreme Court decision.A White House spokesman said safeguarding national and economic security remains a priority and that the administration is committed to using all lawful authorities available. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

January CPI is set to show electricity-driven headline strength and still-firm core inflation, keeping a May RBA hike in play.Summary:Headline CPI seen at 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in JanuaryAnnual inflation forecast at 3.6–3.7% y/yElectricity prices a key upside driver; fuel partly offsetsTrimmed mean seen at 0.3% m/m, annual pace steady at 3.3%RBA still expected to hike in May despite slight core moderationAustralia’s January CPI, due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday at 11:30am Sydney time (1930 US Eastern time), is expected to show firm underlying inflation even as seasonal factors temper headline momentum.Both Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac expect headline inflation to rise by 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. On a non-seasonally adjusted measure, CBA looks for a 0.2% monthly gain, while Westpac’s 0.1% estimate translates to the same 0.4% seasonally adjusted outcome.The annual inflation rate is forecast to print between 3.6% and 3.7%, easing slightly from December’s pace but remaining well above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band.Electricity prices are expected to be the standout contributor in January as cost-of-living rebates fade and bills revert toward underlying pricing. Food inflation, particularly fresh fruit and vegetables and non-alcoholic beverages, is also seen adding upward pressure. Health costs are another modest contributor.These gains should be partly offset by declines in automotive fuel, holiday travel and accommodation, garments and communications. Lower fuel prices in particular are expected to cushion the electricity-driven lift in headline CPI.The key focus will be underlying measures. Both banks estimate the trimmed mean rose 0.3% in January, leaving the annual pace steady at 3.3% y/y. Westpac notes the six-month annualised rate may ease to 3.4% from 3.7%, hinting at gradual moderation in momentum.CBA’s alternative three-month-on-three-month trimmed mean measure is expected to soften slightly to 0.8% from 0.9%, broadly consistent with a quarterly trimmed mean of 0.8% in Q1 2026. That would be marginally below the RBA’s central forecast of 0.9%, though still indicative of persistent underlying price pressures.From a policy perspective, CBA continues to expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate in May. Even if quarterly trimmed mean inflation undershoots the RBA’s forecast slightly, the bank argues that would likely be insufficient to deter further tightening given the Board’s recent signalling and upward revisions to the output gap and neutral rate.With electricity volatility complicating the headline read, markets are likely to focus squarely on the trimmed mean as the cleaner gauge of inflation persistence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Rabobank and UBS see the Swiss franc staying firm as safe-haven demand outweighs intervention risks.Summary:Rabobank and UBS expect CHF to stay well supportedSafe-haven flows underpinned by strong Swiss fundamentalsSNB easing or FX intervention seen as limited in impactEUR/CHF forecast trimmed to 0.91 (3-month, Rabobank), from 0.92Strong franc a headwind for exporters but not yet intervention-worthyThe Swiss franc is expected to remain one of the more resilient currencies into 2026, with both Rabobank and UBS arguing that global uncertainty and Switzerland’s domestic stability should continue to underpin safe-haven demand.Rabobank says the franc “fits the textbook requirement for a safe haven,” citing Switzerland’s credible institutions, robust legal framework, current account surplus and strong fiscal position. In an environment of persistent financial market disruption, those characteristics are likely to keep the currency well bid.Reflecting that view, Rabobank has lowered its three-month EUR/CHF forecast to 0.91 from 0.92 previously, implying a slightly stronger franc than previously anticipated.While there is a possibility that the Swiss National Bank could respond to excessive strength by cutting rates back into negative territory or stepping up currency interventions, Foley suggests such measures may have limited and potentially temporary impact. The structural appeal of the franc during periods of uncertainty may overwhelm policy efforts aimed at softening it.UBS strikes a similarly constructive tone, describing the franc as a “rock of stability” amid global uncertainties and elevated debt levels. The bank expects Switzerland’s macro stability to continue attracting capital inflows, reinforcing demand for CHF assets.That said, UBS does not expect systematic intervention from the SNB at current levels. While a firm currency presents challenges for the Swiss export sector, policymakers are unlikely to react aggressively unless appreciation becomes more disorderly. Cyclical developments—such as a potential recovery in Europe, could also temporarily weigh on the franc, reducing the urgency for policy action.Taken together, the outlook from both banks suggests CHF strength remains fundamentally driven rather than purely speculative. As long as geopolitical and financial market risks linger, the franc’s safe-haven status is likely to keep it supported, even in the face of potential policy easing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices close lower as markets ponder uncertainty from tariffsRBA Economist Plumb Focuses on CPI for ForecastingCrude oil futures settle at $66.31. Buyers failed to keep momentum going.Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since September 2025ECB's Lagarde: Inflation in policy are in a good placeGold. Silver. Bitcoin.What are the charts in these "currencies" telling traders right not?What technical levels are in play for the broader US stock indices?US February Dallas Fed manufacturing index +0.2 vs -1.2 priorA look at the winners and losers in the changes to Trump tariff levelsUS December factory orders -0.7% vs -0.6% expectedMarket dynamics today: Tech under pressure, healthcare and semiconductors gain tractionEuropean Parliament postpones vote on EU-US trade deal - reportFebruary Belgian business sentiment -13.7 vs -8.8 priorFed's Waller: Jan jobs data was a surprise, may want to hold rates if it continues in FebinvestingLive European markets wrap: USD swings, precious metals stay bid on tariffs messUS president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than beforeThe US dollar was mixed to start the week, with price action largely shaped by renewed tariff headlines and a risk-off tone. Uncertainty/Confusion for companies and countries are the code words for the day. President Trump raised the blanket tariff rate to 15% from 10% over the weekend and warned of even higher rates for countries challenging the recent Supreme Court decision. Fed Governor Waller described the March FOMC decision as a “coin flip,” reinforcing the data-dependent outlook.The Dollar Index traded roughly flat with an overall decline of -0.08% but there was divergent moves for the major currency pairs. .JPY outperformed, benefiting from risk-off flows in sympathy with the stock markets declines, particularly in tech and AI-related names. The USDJPY is trading down -0.23% on the day (USD lower, JPY higher). In contrast, activity and commodity currencies lagged. The AUD and NZD underperforming and the CAD also lower vs the greenback. Those pairs were pressured by the sentiment. Australia CPI will be released tomorrow after the close with the expectations for YoY inflation to decline to 3.7% from 3.8%> The RBA at the last meeting raised rates by 25 basis points. In Europe, EUR, GBP, and CHF posted modest gains versus the dollar. The euro found support after stronger-than-expected German Ifo data, though trade-related uncertainty remains elevated. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that policy decisions will remain meeting-by-meeting and that completing her term remains her baseline. Sterling was steady after BoE commentary suggested rates may still be above neutral.Snapshot of G10 moves:EURUSD: modestly higher near 1.1790USDJPY: lower near 154.70 (yen strongest G10)GBPUSD: slightly higher near 1.3488USDCHF: lower near 0.7741USDCAD: CAD marginally lower (-0.18%) near 1.3698AUDUSD: AUD softer by -0.38% near 0.7055NZDUSD: Fell by -0.35% near 0.5954Overall, today’s FX trade reflects risk sensitivity and tariff uncertainty, with defensive currencies outperforming and high-beta currencies lagging.US stocks fell:Dow industrial average fell by -821.91 point or -1.66% at 48,804.06 points. S&P index -71.76 points or -1.04% at 6837.75.NASDAQ index -258.80 point or -1.13% at 22627.27A bright spot is US yields fell among the uncertainty and risk off flows:2 year yields 3.440%, -4.0 basis points5 year yield 3.585%, -6.2 basis points10 year yield 4.032%, -5.2 basis points30 year yield 4.702%, -2.3 basis points. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case.Summary:UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming monthsGeopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensionsFed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yieldsGlobal gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025; central banks buyingSupply constraints emerging as mine depletion looms by 2028UBS has reiterated an Attractive stance on gold, forecasting a rise to USD 6,200 per ounce in the coming months, arguing that the fundamental pillars behind the rally remain firmly in place.On geopolitics, the bank expects uncertainty to remain elevated. The US military build-up in the Middle East and a tightening deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran increase the probability of further volatility. While UBS notes that geopolitical shocks often have only temporary effects on broad markets, they tend to trigger sharp volatility spikes, conditions that typically boost demand for portfolio hedges such as gold.Macro conditions are seen as equally supportive. UBS expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing, forecasting two 25bp rate cuts by end-September. A softer US dollar and declining real yields would reinforce gold’s appeal, particularly if inflation continues to ease and the Fed’s policy mix turns more dovish later this year. Even with firmer recent jobs data and some hawkish signals in FOMC minutes, UBS believes the broader disinflation trend remains intact.Demand dynamics further strengthen the constructive view. According to the World Gold Council, total gold demand surpassed 5,000 metric tonnes in 2025 for the first time on record. UBS expects additional gains driven by stronger investment flows and sustained central bank purchases. Rising household incomes across Asia are also seen underpinning structural jewellery demand over the medium term.On the supply side, growth appears constrained. While elevated prices may incentivise exploration, consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates that around 80 mines will exhaust current production plans by 2028—suggesting limited near-term supply elasticity.Taken together, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a supportive Fed easing cycle, robust demand, and tightening supply, UBS argues the strategic case for gold remains compelling. The bank recommends investors consider an allocation of up to mid-single digits within a diversified portfolio as an effective hedge against market and macroeconomic risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing down over 1% with the Dow industrial average down -1.66%. Shares of IBM tumbled -13.13% (that is a bad luck number). Shares of American Express were down -7.21%, and Visa fell -4.57%.Other big losers for the day with declines of over 5% include:CrowdStrike Holdings: -9.88%Snowflake: -8.66%American Express: -7.21%Shopify Inc: -7.04%DoorDash: -6.60%Chewy: -6.56%Mastercard: -5.72%Robinhood Markets: -5.68%Strategy: -5.62%Cadence Design: -5.51%Intuit: -5.51%Fortinet: -5.48%PNC Financial: -5.23%Super Micro Computer: -5.21%United Airlines Holdings: -5.17%Macy’s Inc: -5.09%A look at the numbers for the indices shows:Dow industrial average 121.91 points or -1.66% at 48,804.06 points. S&P index -71.76 points or -1.04% at 6837.75.NASDAQ index -258.80 point or -1.13% at 22627.27 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It's a near empty economic calendar today. I was expecting the People's Bank of China to set its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) yesterday but I was out by 24 hours. Its today. Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability even further.The Bank setting its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), this used to a big deal, very highly anticipated, but not any more. China's main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses reverse repo open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.The LPR setting in January left the 5 year at 3.50% (vs. expected 3.50% and prior 3.5%) and the 1 year at 3.00% (vs. exp. 3.0% and prior 3.0%). With no change expected for either again today, this will mark the ninth consecutive month without a change.A look back at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia economist Plumb Will continue to focus on quarterly CPI data for forecastingHave also been analysing underlying inflation measures using monthly CPI Remain focused on quarterly trimmed mean, any change some way offAim to assess which underlying inflation measures from monthly data will be preferred in a post-quarterly CPI worldWill engage widely and communicate our thinking ahead of any decisionsAt its last meeting on February 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, citing a material pickup in inflation during the second half of 2025. While inflation remains well below its 2022 peak, the Board judged that recent strength reflects rising capacity pressures in the economy and that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time.The decision was driven by stronger-than-expected growth in private demand, supported by solid household spending and business investment. Housing activity and prices are firming, financial conditions eased through 2025, and credit remains readily available. The Board also noted that earlier rate cuts may not have fully flowed through to demand, prices, and wages.Labour market conditions remain somewhat tight. The unemployment rate is slightly lower than expected, underutilisation remains low, and while wage growth has eased from its peak, broader wage pressures and unit labour costs remain elevated.The Board acknowledged uncertainty around how restrictive policy currently is, but judged that demand growth exceeding supply capacity could further add to inflation pressures. Global risks remain, though Australia’s major trading partners have recently surprised to the upside.Bottom line: Inflation has picked up more than expected, demand is strong, labour markets remain tight, and the RBA has resumed tightening to ensure inflation returns to target. The decision was unanimous, and future moves will be guided by incoming data and evolving risks.Technically, the AUDUSD moved up to the highest level since February 2023 on February 12 at 0.71464. Since then the price has rotated back down, trading to a low on Friday at 0.7014 before bouncing back to the upside. Earlier today, the pair pushed higher on broad USD selling, but that momentum has faded and price has since rotated lower.Technically, the move has shifted the short-term tone. The pair has fallen back below both the 200-hour moving average at 0.7075 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.7063, putting sellers back in control on the hourly chart. However, price is still holding above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.70435, which remains a key near-term support level.A sustained break below that 4-hour MA would strengthen the bearish bias and open the door toward the Friday low at 0.70142, which also aligns with the February 9 swing low — increasing its technical importance.In short, the hourly MAs have turned into resistance, and the 4-hour MA is now the key line in the sand for buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling down $0.17 (-0.26%), but the broader technical picture remains constructive.Earlier today, price pushed to $67.28, the highest level since August 2025, before rotating lower into the close. Even with the pullback, crude is still up roughly 21% from the December low at $55.08, underscoring the strength of the recent recovery trend.On the daily chart, price has moved back above the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 28 high, which comes in near $66.74. However, today marks the third consecutive session where buyers attempted to hold above that midpoint level but failed to sustain momentum.That 50% retracement is now the key pivot.Sustained trade above $66.74 would signal buyers are regaining stronger control and could open the door for further upside extension.Failure to hold above it keeps the market vulnerable to additional consolidation or a deeper pullback. On the downside,, the close support comes in at the broken 61.8% retracement at $65.72. Below the in the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) is currently at $65.17. The level also corresponds with an old upward sloping trendline.In short, crude remains in recovery mode, but buyers need a clean break and hold above the midpoint level to reinforce the bullish case. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.