It's a testing moment for markets as we await the outcome of talks between the US and Iran. Trump's message on Monday was a bit out of the blue but the playbook looks to be one that we have seen before. It is a very similar one to how he went about on the trade/tariffs war with China.The fact of the matter looks to be that we look to be moving on to a new phase of the war. One that likely could see some thawing in tensions and potential for things to de-escalate. As things stand, the key thing to watch for markets remains what will happen with regards to the Strait of Hormuz. And if this latest headline is any indication, there is some hopeful optimism.Come what may, Iran still holds significant leverage considering their control of the strait. That makes it hard to envisage a major compromise in negotiations. But we'll just have to wait and see for now.Overall, broader markets are keeping cautiously optimistic since Monday. That despite the constant back and forth rhetoric of Iran denials and murmurs that talks will not be successful. Wall Street might have eased back yesterday but S&P 500 futures are now up 0.8% on the day again.The big one to watch remains the oil market. WTI crude oil is falling back under $90 and is keeping near the lows for the week, around the levels after Trump's bombshell on Monday.If Iran is serious about partially opening up the Strait of Hormuz, that will be good news. It will still likely need time for commercial vessels to trust in the process and slowly get back into the groove. But in all likelihood, we should just see a slow trickle in passage flows rather than a rush back to normality.And even if the conflict slowly settles down, it might still take weeks or even months for some key energy facilities in the Gulf region to get back on track. Kuwait already warned yesterday that it would take 3 to 4 months to restore production to full capacity even if the war were to end today. So, just keep that in mind. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Oil retraces a touch as Iran demands cast doubt on ceasefire and US boosts troop presencePBoC adds liquidity with CNY 500bn MLF, extends net injection streak (450bn mature)RBNZ’s Conway warns on purchasing power as Iran shock clouds NZ outlook, GDP 4cast slashedIran distrusts Trump ceasefire peace push as US pairs diplomacy with military pressure.Iran proposes regional military alliance excluding US and Israel. Again.Iran prefers JD Vance for talks, over Witkoff or Kushner, highlighting trust issuesPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8911 (vs. estimate at 6.8819)Australia February CPI cools slightly, but energy shock clouds inflation outlookSpaceX IPO filing imminent, report says deal could raise over $75bnAustralian February CPI: Core (trimmed mean) 3.3% y/y (vs. expected 3.4%)PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8819 – Reuters estimateBoJ minutes signal gradual rate hikes as inflation nears target and oil risks riseCanada discusses Keystone XL revival with US amid rising energy security risksFed’s Goolsbee warns energy shocks cloud rate outlook, echoing Barr stanceFed’s Barr says rates may stay on hold "for some time" as inflation and oil risks persistICYMI: Iran allows conditional Hormuz transit as thousands of ships remain stalledIran warns of mining the entire Persian Gulf if US launches ground invasionUS to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to Gulf amid Iran warIsrael expands conflict footprint with strike on key Russia–Iran Caspian supply route.Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demandsUS-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open.Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner planStock market rollercoaster: Tech falters, energy shines in mixed Wall Street sessionThere was a brief glimmer of optimism during the US session after Iran indicated that non-hostile vessels may be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz under coordination, raising hopes that energy flows could stabilise eventually.That optimism strengthened after the US close when Israeli Channel 12 reported a potential one-month ceasefire framework being developed by Witkoff and Kushner. The headline prompted a modest easing in geopolitical risk premium, with oil prices falling, equities moving higher and gold also gaining.However, markets remained cautious, with several factors quickly tempering the initial relief. The US is continuing to expand its military presence in the region, with plans to deploy around 10,000 additional troops, including elements of the 82nd Airborne Division and two Marine Expeditionary Units. This would take total US forces in the region to roughly 60,000.The dual-track strategy has not gone unnoticed. Iranian officials and some analysts have questioned whether diplomacy is being used tactically to buy time while military positioning continues. At the same time, others argue the approach reflects a deliberate effort by President Trump to preserve optionality between negotiation and escalation. Reports suggest planning assumptions still allow for a further two to three weeks of conflict even if talks proceed.On the ground, hostilities continued. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it launched missiles targeting Israel as well as Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, while drones struck a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire. Air raid sirens were also reported across Kuwait and Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia said it intercepted additional drones.Focus later shifted to Iran’s response to US ceasefire proposals, which included demands for the closure of US bases in the Gulf, the removal of all sanctions, an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah, and a new framework allowing Iran to charge fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. US officials reportedly dismissed the terms as unrealistic, highlighting the wide gap between the two sides.As markets digested these developments, the earlier risk-on moves partially reversed, with oil prices edging higher again as traders reassessed the likelihood of a near-term de-escalation.Separately, Federal Reserve Governor Barr said interest rates may need to remain on hold for some time, noting that inflation is still above target and warning that higher oil prices stemming from Middle East tensions could delay any move toward rate cuts, even as the labour market shows signs of stabilising. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee echoed similar sentiments. Australia’s February CPI showed modest cooling but remained above target, with the data predating the latest energy shock and leaving inflation risks skewed higher. The USD firmed, with AUD, NZD, EUR, CAD and GBP softer, while USD/JPY and USD/CHF edged up. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil finds some bids as Iran’s maximalist ceasefire demands clash with US military buildup.Summary:Iran responds to ceasefire proposal with maximalist demands (US bases closure, sanctions removal, Hormuz fees) US officials view terms as unrealistic, reducing likelihood of near-term deal Trump simultaneously pursuing diplomacy and military escalation US to deploy ~10,000 additional troops, including 82nd Airborne and MEUs Reports suggest 2–3 more weeks of war likely, even with talks Drone strike hits fuel tank at Kuwait airport; sirens across Gulf Oil ticks higher as markets grow increasingly sceptical on de-escalationIran’s response to US ceasefire proposals is being viewed by markets as a major obstacle to de-escalation, with a set of demands that officials have characterised as unrealistic and unlikely to gain traction in Washington.According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, Tehran has called for the closure of all US military bases in the Gulf, the removal of all sanctions, an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah, and the establishment of a new framework for the Strait of Hormuz that would allow Iran to charge transit fees. The proposal also excludes any negotiations over its ballistic missile program.Taken together, the conditions far exceed what would typically be considered a starting point for negotiations, reinforcing market doubts that a ceasefire can be reached in the near term.That scepticism is being compounded by developments on the ground. The United States is moving ahead with a significant military buildup, with elite units including the 82nd Airborne Division and two Marine Expeditionary Units expected to add roughly 10,000 troops to the region. This would bring total US forces in the Middle East to around 60,000.Officials suggest the dual-track approach remains in place, with President Trump keeping both diplomatic and military options open. However, reports indicate that even if talks proceed, planning assumptions still allow for another two to three weeks of conflict, underscoring the limited near-term prospects for de-escalation.Meanwhile, tensions continue to spill into regional infrastructure. CNN reported that drones struck a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, sparking a fire, while air raid sirens were activated in both Kuwait and Bahrain amid fresh Iranian attacks.For markets, the combination of maximalist demands, continued military escalation, and direct strikes on energy-related infrastructure has shifted sentiment back toward caution. Oil prices, which had briefly eased on hopes of diplomatic progress, are now moving higher again as traders reassess the likelihood of a prolonged disruption to Gulf energy flows.The evolving situation reinforces a key dynamic: even as diplomatic channels remain open, the balance of risks continues to skew toward escalation, keeping geopolitical risk premia firmly embedded across energy markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

PBoC extends liquidity support with 13th straight MLF net injectionSummary:PBoC to inject CNY 500bn via 1-year MLF, vs CNY 450bn maturing Results in CNY 50bn net liquidity injection Marks 13th straight month of net injections Conducted via variable-rate, multiple-price auction Signals continued policy support for liquidity and credit Reinforces accommodative but measured easing stanceChina’s central bank is set to extend its run of liquidity support, announcing a CNY 500 billion one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation aimed at maintaining stable funding conditions in the banking system.The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said the operation will take place on Wednesday and will be conducted via a variable-rate tender with a fixed quantity, using a multiple-price auction format. The structure gives policymakers flexibility in managing funding costs while ensuring a set amount of liquidity is injected.With CNY 450 billion in MLF funds maturing this month, the operation results in a net injection of CNY 50 billion. This marks the 13th consecutive month in which the PBoC has added net liquidity through the facility, highlighting a sustained effort to support credit conditions.The MLF, introduced in 2014, is a key policy tool that allows commercial and policy banks to borrow from the central bank using collateral, effectively anchoring medium-term funding costs and guiding broader lending rates in the economy.ImplicationsThe continued net injection signals that policymakers remain focused on ensuring ample liquidity rather than tightening conditions, even as headline growth data has shown pockets of resilience. It suggests underlying concerns about demand, credit transmission, or external risks are still present.Rather than deploying aggressive rate cuts, the PBoC continues to rely on targeted liquidity tools like the MLF to fine-tune financial conditions. This reflects a preference for measured, controlled easing while avoiding excessive pressure on the currency or financial stability risks.For markets, the move is modestly supportive for domestic liquidity and risk sentiment, particularly equities and credit. However, the relatively small net injection means the signal is more about policy stance than scale.For the yuan, the impact is likely limited, as the operation does not represent a significant shift in interest rate policy. Instead, it reinforces the view that China is maintaining an accommodative bias while calibrating support carefully amid a complex global backdrop. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Conway frames cost of living as purchasing power, not just inflation, with NZ prices structurally high vs OECD Pandemic inflation lifted price levels ~26%, while income growth only just kept pace Real wages modestly higher, but purchasing power still only around OECD average Middle East conflict flagged as a new inflation risk via energy and shipping costs Monetary policy can anchor inflation but cannot fix affordability alone — productivity is key- Westpac warns Q2 GDP contraction, rising unemployment and weak sentiment RBNZ faces a stagflation-style squeeze → likely hold near-term before later normalisation NZD outlook skewed softer near-term on growth hit, with policy path uncertain Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway struck a measured but cautionary tone on the country’s economic outlook, arguing that the cost-of-living debate is being misunderstood and that structural weaknesses—not just inflation—are at the heart of New Zealand’s affordability challenges.In a speech focused on purchasing power, Conway emphasised that the true issue facing households is not simply the pace of price increases, but what incomes can buy. While inflation has moderated significantly from its pandemic peak above 7%, the cumulative rise in prices—around 26% since 2020—has permanently lifted the cost base of the economy. Income growth has broadly kept pace with that surge, but only just, leaving purchasing power largely unchanged. Real wages have risen modestly, supported in part by job switching and labour shortages, but broader income growth has slowed sharply compared to pre-pandemic trends. Crucially, Conway highlighted that New Zealand remains a structurally expensive economy, with prices for many goods and services sitting well above OECD averages, particularly in housing, utilities and construction. This means that even stable inflation does not resolve affordability pressures.On policy, the message was clear: monetary policy can deliver low and stable inflation, but it cannot meaningfully lift purchasing power on its own. Instead, sustained improvements require stronger productivity, better structural settings, and more competitive markets.The near-term outlook, however, has become more complicated. Conway acknowledged that the Middle East conflict is already pushing up global energy and shipping costs, creating fresh upside risks to inflation and forcing a reassessment of the central bank’s outlook ahead of the April review. This aligns with private sector views. Westpac now expects New Zealand’s economy to contract in Q2 2026 as higher fuel costs weigh on activity. The bank sees unemployment rising, house prices falling, and sentiment deteriorating sharply, leaving the RBNZ caught between elevated inflation and weakening growth.That combination points to a difficult policy trade-off. While inflation risks argue against easing, the growth outlook suggests the current stimulatory stance will need to be maintained in the near term. Westpac expects the central bank to hold the OCR steady for now before eventually moving toward normalisation later in the year.For markets, this reinforces a near-term stagflationary backdrop for New Zealand—where external shocks, rather than domestic demand, are driving inflation dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran is wary of Trump’s push for talks, believing previous negotiations were used as cover for strikes, even as the US presses ahead with a 15-point plan and a growing military build-up. Info via Axios (though I mentioned it earlier) Summary:Iran suspects Trump’s peace push may be a setup for further strikes. Tehran told mediators it has been “tricked twice” and is wary of talks. US still wants in-person talks in Pakistan and is pushing a 15-point plan. Military build-up continues alongside diplomacy, reinforcing Iranian distrust. Highlights how fragile and conflicted ceasefire prospects remainIran is increasingly sceptical of President Donald Trump’s latest push for peace talks, telling mediators it believes previous diplomatic efforts were used as cover for military escalation and that it does not want to be “fooled again,” according to Axios.The report underscores the deep trust deficit now shaping any attempt to restart negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iranian officials have reportedly conveyed their concerns to mediators including Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, arguing that two prior rounds of diplomacy were followed by major US- and Israel-backed attacks despite public claims that talks were still being pursued.That history appears to be central to Tehran’s reluctance. According to the report, Iranian officials view the latest US military movements, including troop reinforcements and broader force build-up in the region, as further evidence that Trump may be using the prospect of talks as a tactical ruse rather than pursuing negotiations in good faith.From the US side, however, the message is that military pressure and diplomacy are being pursued in parallel. The administration appears to be building leverage while keeping open the option of a negotiated settlement. One Trump adviser reportedly described the strategy as having “a hand open for a deal” while also maintaining the capacity to strike.Axios said Washington is seeking an in-person meeting with Iran in Islamabad as soon as Thursday and has already transmitted a 15-point proposal through mediators. The package reportedly covers ending the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and securing assurances around Iran’s nuclear activity, missile programme and support for regional proxies.At the same time, the Pentagon’s military posture continues to intensify. More fighter squadrons, Marine units and thousands of troops are expected to arrive in the region, while the command element of the 82nd Airborne Division and an infantry brigade have also been directed to deploy. Officials reportedly say even if talks proceed, plans still envision another two to three weeks of war.For markets, the key message is that diplomacy remains alive, but deeply compromised. Iran’s mistrust, combined with the US strategy of negotiating under military pressure, suggests any path to ceasefire will remain highly uncertain and vulnerable to renewed escalation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran proposed a regional security alliance excluding the US and Israel, signalling a push to reshape Middle East security dynamics and reduce reliance on external powers. The proposal is not new, but its more aggressive framing during active conflict reinforces shifting regional security dynamics and geopolitical risk.Summary:Iran proposes regional security and military union excluding US and Israel. Calls for Gulf/Muslim nations to take collective control of security. Messaging framed as rejection of US military presence. Invokes historical conflicts to argue for regional unity. Signals geopolitical realignment push amid ongoing conflict.Iran has proposed the creation of a regional security and military alliance among neighbouring countries, explicitly excluding the United States and Israel, in a move that underscores its push for a reshaped Middle East security architecture.In a statement delivered in Arabic, an Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson called on regional nations to pursue collective defence arrangements independent of external powers. The messaging directly challenged the role of the United States in the region, arguing that security should be managed internally rather than by distant actors.“Dear Muslim brothers, we do not need a country that is thousands of kilometers away to ensure our region's security, nor do we need a country that views Islamic countries as cash cows. What good has America and its bases in the region brought you?”The proposal reflects Iran’s longstanding position advocating for the removal of US military presence from the Gulf and broader Middle East. By framing the initiative as a cooperative regional effort, Tehran appears to be attempting to reposition itself as a security partner rather than solely a source of instability in the eyes of neighbouring states.The spokesperson also invoked historical precedent, referencing past Arab military defeats to argue that fragmentation and lack of coordination have weakened regional security in the past.“We must learn from the mistakes of the past and the lack of supportive force which caused the Arabs' defeat in the 1967 and 1973 wars. We must unite to ensure our security and establish a comprehensive defense union.”The timing of the proposal is notable, coming amid heightened tensions, ongoing military exchanges, and competing diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a ceasefire. It also coincides with increased US military positioning in the region, further highlighting the strategic divide between Washington and Tehran.For markets, the announcement adds another layer to an already complex geopolitical backdrop. While the proposal itself is unlikely to lead to immediate structural change, it signals Iran’s intent to challenge existing security frameworks and could contribute to longer-term regional realignment narratives.In the near term, the development reinforces elevated geopolitical risk, particularly as it highlights competing visions for regional security at a time when conflict dynamics remain fluid. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Its been a day of developments in the Middle East. It appears on balance positive:Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner planUS-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open.Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demandsand this earlier:ICYMI: Iran allows conditional Hormuz transit as thousands of ships remain stalled.... but:Israel expands conflict footprint with strike on key Russia–Iran Caspian supply route.And, I am not alone in pondering whether Trump is using diplomacy with Iran to buy time while positioning troops:US to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to Gulf amid Iran warOn with this post, though. Iran has indicated it prefers to negotiate with Vice President JD Vance rather than other US envoys, highlighting trust issues and adding uncertainty to already fragile ceasefire talks.Summary:Iran prefers negotiating with Vice President JD Vance over Witkoff/Kushner. Signals trust breakdown after failed talks and subsequent military action. US insists Trump decides negotiators; all key officials remain involved. Talks in Islamabad still possible but seen as uncertain. Highlights fragile diplomacy and internal friction around negotiation channels.Iran has signalled a preference to engage with US Vice President JD Vance in any renewed diplomatic talks, rather than special envoy Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner, according to regional sources cited by CNN.The message, reportedly conveyed through back channels to Washington, reflects a perceived breakdown in trust following the collapse of earlier negotiations and the subsequent escalation into military action involving the US and Israel. Iranian officials are said to view discussions involving Witkoff and Kushner as unlikely to yield progress under current conditions.By contrast, Vance is seen by Tehran as more inclined toward de-escalation and a negotiated end to the conflict. Regional sources suggested there is a perception that the vice president would be more focused on bringing hostilities to a close, making him a more appealing counterpart for renewed talks.However, the situation remains complex. Despite Iran’s stated preference, Witkoff continues to play a central role in the US diplomatic effort, and Tehran may ultimately have little choice but to engage with whichever representatives the Trump administration appoints. As one source noted, while Iran can express a preference, it cannot dictate the composition of the US negotiating team.Washington has pushed back against the narrative. President Trump said that all key members of his diplomatic team are involved in ongoing efforts, while the White House emphasised that the decision on negotiators rests solely with the president. Officials also dismissed the reporting as potentially motivated by foreign influence, suggesting that unnamed regional sources may be attempting to shape perceptions.Looking ahead, a potential meeting between US and Iranian officials later this week in Islamabad remains on the table, though expectations for a breakthrough appear limited. Even proponents of the talks are said to be sceptical about whether they will ultimately take place.For markets, the development underscores the fragile and fragmented nature of current diplomatic efforts. While the existence of back-channel communication suggests negotiations are still alive, the lack of alignment on interlocutors highlights the difficulty of achieving meaningful progress in the near term.Maybe it's the beard? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s February CPI showed modest cooling, but inflation remains above target and the data predates a sharp energy-driven inflation shock, leaving risks tilted to the upside.Summary:Australia February CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% y/y (vs 3.8% prior/exp). Monthly CPI flat at 0.0% m/m, down from 0.4%. Trimmed mean came in soft m/m at 0.2% (vs 0.3% exp), y/y at 3.3%. Inflation still above RBA target band, with non-tradables sticky. Data pre-dates March energy shock, meaning upside risks remain.Australia’s inflation data for February showed a modest cooling in price pressures, though underlying inflation remains above target and the outlook has been materially complicated by the recent surge in energy prices.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed headline CPI was unchanged on a monthly basis in February, coming in at 0.0% m/m after a 0.4% rise in January. On an annual basis, inflation eased slightly to 3.7% y/y from 3.8%, coming in just below expectations for an unchanged reading.Core inflation also showed some moderation at the margin. The trimmed mean rose by 0.2% m/m, undershooting forecasts of 0.3%, while the annual pace held at 3.3% y/y following a downward revision to January’s figure. While this suggests some easing in momentum, the level of underlying inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band.The detail of the report points to a still-sticky domestic inflation backdrop. Non-tradables inflation continues to pose a challenge, indicating persistent price pressures in services and other domestically driven components. This reinforces the view that inflation in Australia was already running too high even before the latest external shocks.Importantly, the February data predates the sharp rise in global energy prices seen in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This timing is critical for policymakers, as it means the current inflation readings do not yet reflect the expected pass-through from higher fuel, electricity and gas costs.The removal of earlier government rebates is also beginning to show through in electricity pricing, suggesting households may face further increases in utility costs in coming months. Combined with rising fuel prices, this points to a likely reacceleration in inflation in the near term.For the RBA, the data presents a mixed picture. While the monthly print was relatively benign and slightly softer than expected, inflation remains above target and forward-looking risks have clearly shifted to the upside. As a result, the report is unlikely to alter the central bank’s tightening bias, particularly given its recent emphasis on energy-driven inflation risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file for an IPO that could raise over $75bn, though the size and structure remain uncertain given its already high private valuation.The Information carries the report, gated. Summary:SpaceX reportedly preparing to file IPO prospectus imminently. Deal could target a raise of more than $75bn, per report. Retail allocation may exceed 20%, unusually large. Follows recent integration with Musk’s xAI ecosystem. Would rank among largest IPOs ever if confirmed.SpaceX is reportedly moving closer to a long-anticipated public listing, with plans to file its IPO prospectus as soon as this week or next, according to a report citing a person familiar with the matter.Advisers involved in the process are said to be targeting a capital raise of more than $75 billion, a figure that, if realised, would place the offering among the largest in market history. While details remain preliminary and subject to change, the reported size has drawn attention given that most mega IPOs historically have raised significantly less capital, even when valuations were substantial.The report also indicated that the retail investor allocation could exceed 20%, which would be unusually high for a deal of this scale. Large IPOs are typically dominated by institutional demand, and such a sizeable retail component could reflect an effort to broaden participation in what is likely to be one of the most closely watched listings in years.SpaceX’s IPO has been widely anticipated for some time, though timing has remained uncertain due to the company’s strong access to private capital markets. The latest developments suggest a potential shift, possibly influenced by broader strategic positioning around Elon Musk’s expanding technology ecosystem.Recent corporate activity has further elevated investor interest. SpaceX has reportedly merged with Musk’s artificial intelligence venture xAI, which has been valued at around $250 billion. The integration highlights growing overlap between aerospace, satellite communications and AI infrastructure, particularly as SpaceX’s Starlink network becomes increasingly central to global data connectivity.In terms of valuation context, SpaceX has previously been valued in private markets in the range of roughly $150–200 billion. This raises questions about how a $75 billion capital raise would be structured, as such a figure would imply either a very large free float or a significantly higher valuation at listing. As a result, market participants are likely to treat early reports cautiously until more concrete details emerge in formal filings.For markets, the potential IPO represents a major upcoming liquidity event and a key test of appetite for large-scale growth listings. It could also have broader implications for equity issuance trends, particularly if it successfully attracts both institutional and retail demand at scale. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CPI for February slightly lower than expected both headline and underlying (core). Australian shares have added to gains. March, of course, has brought fuel price surges. We'll get that news in a month.I'm seeing the figures being greeted with joy. Dial it back folks, the target band the RBA shoots for is 2-3%. I'll have more to come on this separately ... ADDED, here we are, more detail etc,:Australia February CPI cools slightly, but energy shock clouds inflation outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ minutes signal a steady tightening bias with inflation nearing target and financial conditions still accommodative, while rising oil prices since the meeting add fresh upside risks.Summary:BoJ minutes reinforce gradual but ongoing rate hike bias. Members see financial conditions still accommodative, helped by weak yen. Underlying inflation seen edging toward 2% target. No fixed pace for hikes, but some favour increases every few months. Since the meeting, rising oil prices add fresh upside inflation risk. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting show policymakers remained broadly comfortable with a gradual tightening path, signalling that further rate hikes are appropriate as long as the economic and inflation outlook continues to improve.Members agreed that underlying inflation was rising moderately and approaching the 2% target, reinforcing the case for continued policy normalisation. At the same time, real interest rates were still seen as significantly low, indicating that financial conditions remained accommodative despite earlier rate increases.Several members noted that the impact of higher rates on the economy had so far been limited. While some acknowledged downside pressure on consumption from rising borrowing costs, there was a general view that financial system risks remained contained. Lending conditions were described as favourable, and firms’ financial positions were seen as broadly resilient.The Board also signalled flexibility in how it approaches further tightening. Most members agreed there was no need to commit to a specific pace of rate hikes, instead favouring a meeting-by-meeting approach. That said, some participants argued it would be appropriate to raise rates at intervals of a few months, provided conditions allow.Discussion around the neutral rate featured prominently, with many members highlighting the difficulty of identifying its level in advance. Policymakers emphasised the need to assess economic, price and financial responses to rate changes over time, rather than relying on fixed estimates. Some also stressed the importance of not delaying hikes unnecessarily, warning against missing the appropriate timing for further adjustments.The yen’s depreciation was viewed as evidence that financial conditions remained loose, with some members arguing that the appropriate policy response was to continue raising rates in a timely and measured manner. At the same time, there was recognition that communication could be improved, particularly in explaining underlying inflation trends excluding one-off factors such as government subsidies.Crucially for markets, the backdrop has shifted materially since the January meeting. Trump's Middle East war and the resulting rise in oil prices have increased Japan’s imported energy costs, adding fresh upside risks to inflation. Given Japan’s heavy reliance on energy imports, this dynamic strengthens the case for continued tightening, even as policymakers remain cautious about the pace.Overall, the minutes point to a central bank that remains on a gradual tightening path, with a bias toward further rate increases as inflation firms and external price pressures build. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada has raised the possibility of reviving Keystone XL with US officials as a way to boost energy security, though no firm backing has yet emerged and diversification efforts continue.Summary:Canada discussed reviving Keystone XL with Trump administration officials. Proposal could lift Canadian crude exports to the US by >12%. Framed as boosting US energy security amid Iran-driven supply risks. No clear US commitment yet on approvals or fast-tracking. Canada simultaneously pushing diversification via Trans Mountain expansion.Canada has reopened discussions with the Trump administration over a potential revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, as policymakers look to strengthen North American energy security against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks.Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson confirmed that Canadian officials raised the proposal during meetings in Houston with senior US officials, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. The talks come at a time when global oil markets are being increasingly shaped by supply disruptions and uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict.The project under consideration, led by Calgary-based South Bow alongside US partner Bridger Pipeline, would involve reviving part of the previously cancelled Keystone XL system. If completed, it could increase Canada’s crude exports to the United States by more than 12%, providing additional supply into a market that continues to rely heavily on imports despite its status as the world’s largest oil producer.Hodgson framed the proposal as a practical solution to a structural imbalance in US energy markets. While US production sits around 12–13 million barrels per day, consumption remains closer to 20 million bpd, with Canada supplying a significant portion of the shortfall. Currently, roughly 4.4 million bpd of Canadian crude flows south to US refiners, many of which are configured to process heavier grades sourced from Alberta.Despite the strategic rationale, there is no clear indication yet that the Trump administration will support or fast-track the project. Hodgson said US officials are still evaluating options to ensure adequate global oil supply, suggesting the proposal remains at an exploratory stage.At the same time, Canada is actively pursuing a parallel strategy of export diversification. Hodgson highlighted progress on the Trans Mountain expansion, which will add around 300,000 bpd of capacity to move crude from Alberta to the Pacific Coast. Prime Minister Mark Carney has also been engaging with international partners to broaden Canada’s customer base.For markets, the discussions signal a renewed focus on North American supply resilience. While Keystone XL revival remains uncertain, the broader narrative points to efforts to offset geopolitical supply risks through infrastructure and trade realignment.---Keystone XL background Keystone XL was originally proposed to transport crude from Alberta to US Gulf Coast refiners. The project faced years of regulatory and political opposition, particularly over environmental concerns. It was ultimately cancelled after US permit revocation, becoming a symbol of North American energy policy division. The pipeline is designed to carry heavy Canadian crude, which is well-suited to many US refining configurations. A revival would likely face regulatory, legal and political hurdles despite current energy security arguments. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed’s Goolsbee warned energy shocks from the war complicate policy and may delay rate cuts, echoing Barr’s earlier message that inflation risks and oil prices support a higher-for-longer stance.Summary:Fed’s Goolsbee warns energy shocks complicate policy outlook. Says there is no clear playbook for current conditions. Flags risks to both inflation and growth sides of mandate. Signals uncertainty over rate cuts, depends on war duration. Echoes Barr’s earlier “higher-for-longer” tone on inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signalled rising uncertainty around the policy outlook, warning that the current environment, driven in part by energy shocks linked to the Middle East conflict, presents a difficult challenge for central banks.Speaking on PBS NewsHour, Goolsbee said energy-driven price shocks pose risks to both sides of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, complicating the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting growth. “It’s a bad situation for a central bank,” he said, noting that policymakers are operating without a clear historical playbook for navigating the current mix of geopolitical risk and inflation pressures.Goolsbee emphasised that the path for interest rates remains highly contingent on how the conflict evolves, particularly its impact on energy markets. He said it is not yet clear whether the Fed will be able to cut rates again, with the outlook dependent on both the duration of the war and the extent to which higher oil prices feed through into broader inflation.“We have to see progress on inflation for it to be realistic to expect rates to come down this year,” he added, reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent stance.The remarks closely align with comments made earlier by Fed Governor Michael Barr, who also stressed that rates may need to remain on hold “for some time” given inflation remains above target and is being pushed higher by elevated oil prices. Barr similarly highlighted that while the labour market appears to be stabilising, policymakers would require clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering rate cuts.Together, the comments underscore a growing shift within the Fed toward a more cautious stance, as geopolitical developments increasingly feed into the inflation outlook. The combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks is reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” narrative, while also introducing uncertainty around whether further easing will be feasible in the near term.For markets, the key takeaway is that energy-driven inflation risks are now firmly embedded in the Fed’s reaction function. As a result, rate expectations are likely to remain sensitive not only to economic data but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on the economic outlook and community development.Fed’s Barr said rates may need to stay on hold for some time due to above-target inflation and rising oil-driven risks, while noting the labour market is stabilising.Summary:Fed’s Barr signals rates likely on hold “for some time”. Inflation remains above target, driven partly by higher oil prices. Middle East conflict seen as increasing inflation risks. Labour market described as stabilising. Rate cuts require clear, sustained disinflation.Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr signalled that US interest rates may need to remain on hold for an extended period, citing persistent inflation pressures and rising risks linked to higher oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions.Speaking in prepared remarks, Barr said inflation remains notably above the Fed’s 2% target, with the central bank’s preferred PCE measure still around one percentage point higher. While he expressed some optimism that inflation could ease over the course of the year, he warned that the outlook has become more uncertain as elevated energy prices begin to filter through to consumer costs, particularly gasoline.Barr explicitly linked the geopolitical backdrop to inflation risks, noting that the ongoing conflict has increased upside pressure via oil markets. This reinforces concerns that recent disinflation progress could stall or reverse if energy prices remain elevated.At the same time, Barr described the labour market as appearing to stabilise, suggesting that employment conditions are no longer a primary source of inflation concern. This combination, stable labour conditions alongside sticky inflation, strengthens the case for maintaining current policy settings rather than moving toward easing.“I would like to see evidence that goods and services price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labour market conditions remain stable,” Barr said, underscoring a data-dependent approach with a clear emphasis on inflation outcomes.The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its most recent meeting, and while policymakers had previously signalled the likelihood of at least one rate cut this year, that outlook is increasingly being questioned by markets. Investors are now reassessing the policy path, with expectations shifting toward a prolonged pause and even a growing risk that further tightening could be required if inflation proves more persistent.For markets, Barr’s remarks reinforce a “higher-for-longer” narrative, particularly as geopolitical developments continue to feed into the inflation outlook. The interplay between energy prices and monetary policy is likely to remain a key driver of rate expectations in the near term. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ICYMI, this from the Financial Times earlier. Iran said “non-hostile vessels” may transit Hormuz with coordination, signalling controlled access rather than full closure, as thousands of ships remain stalled amid rising regional tensions.Summary:Iran says “non-hostile vessels” can transit Hormuz with coordination. Communication sent to International Maritime Organization members. Tehran signals conditional access rather than full closure. ~3,200 ships reportedly stuck amid heightened risk. Highlights growing disruption and control over key oil chokepoint. Iran has signalled a conditional approach to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, stating that “non-hostile vessels” may be allowed to transit the critical waterway, provided they coordinate with Iranian authorities.The message was reportedly communicated to member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) via a formal letter, according to the Financial Times. In the correspondence, Iran’s foreign ministry said it had taken “necessary and proportionate measures” to prevent what it described as aggressors from using the Strait to support hostile operations.The language suggests Tehran is not moving toward a blanket closure of Hormuz, but rather attempting to assert control over maritime access, effectively introducing a permission-based transit regime. This represents a significant shift in risk dynamics, as it raises uncertainty over which vessels may be deemed “non-hostile” and how such determinations would be enforced in practice.The development comes as shipping disruption in the region intensifies. The IMO recently convened an emergency meeting to address the deteriorating situation, with reports indicating that around 3,200 vessels are currently stalled in the Gulf, reluctant to navigate the narrow Strait amid escalating tensions.The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Any disruption—whether through outright closure or controlled access—has immediate implications for global supply chains, tanker rates and insurance costs.For markets, the key takeaway is that Iran appears to be moving toward a strategy of selective restriction rather than full blockade. While this may reduce the likelihood of an outright shutdown scenario, it still represents a material escalation in operational risk, as uncertainty around transit permissions could significantly hinder shipping flows.In combination with broader geopolitical tensions and conflicting ceasefire signals, the situation reinforces a highly fragile environment for energy markets, where pricing remains extremely sensitive to incremental developments around Hormuz access and enforcement.---Since this news the ceasefire chatter happened:Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner planUS-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open.Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demands.... but:Israel expands conflict footprint with strike on key Russia–Iran Caspian supply route.US to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to Gulf amid Iran war This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

From the BoJ we get the minutes of the January meeting. We had the 'Summary' from this back at the beginning of February:signalled moderate economic momentum and stickier inflation trends, endorsing careful future rate increases if forecasts unfold as expected.From Australia, February inflation data:Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A proposed ceasefire is the chatter right now:Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner planUS-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open.Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demandsAs hostilities continue:Israel expands conflict footprint with strike on key Russia–Iran Caspian supply route.And also this escalation:US to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to Gulf amid Iran warIts going to be a bit of a road to get a ceasefire. An escalation will complicate it, Iran will respond. Iran warned it would mine the Persian Gulf and effectively block regional shipping if the US attempts a ground invasion, signalling a major escalation risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz.Summary:Iran issued a stark warning over a potential US ground invasion. Tehran said it would mine access points across the Persian Gulf. Threat extends disruption risk beyond Hormuz to the entire Gulf. Signals escalation toward full maritime denial strategy. Reinforces elevated geopolitical premium in oil marketsIran has escalated its rhetoric in response to the risk of a potential US ground invasion, warning it would move to effectively shut down the Persian Gulf through widespread naval mining operations.In a statement attributed to Iran’s Defense Council, Tehran outlined how it would respond to any attempt by US forces to enter Iranian territory via coastal or island routes. The warning was explicit in both scope and consequence, signalling a willingness to expand disruption well beyond the already critical Strait of Hormuz."any attempt by the enemy to encroach upon Iranian coasts or islands will naturally, according to common military procedure, cause all access points and communication lines in the Persian Gulf and the coasts to be mined with various types of naval mines, including floating mines releasable from the coasts;"The statement suggests Iran would deploy a broad naval denial strategy, targeting key maritime corridors used for global energy shipments. Unlike previous threats centred primarily on the Strait of Hormuz, this approach would extend disruption across the entire Gulf region, significantly increasing the scale of potential impact."in which case practically the entire Persian Gulf for long periods will find a status similar to the Strait of Hormuz, and this time alongside the Strait of Hormuz, the entire Persian Gulf will in practice be blocked, and the responsibility for it will be on the threatener."Such a scenario would represent a major escalation in the conflict, with implications for global oil and gas flows. The Persian Gulf accounts for a substantial share of the world’s seaborne crude exports, and any widespread mining of shipping lanes would pose immediate risks to tanker traffic, insurance costs and supply continuity.For markets, the significance lies in the shift from a chokepoint-focused threat to a broader regional blockade risk. While the comments remain conditional on a US ground incursion, they underline the asymmetry of escalation risks and Iran’s capacity to disrupt maritime trade at scale.The warning also comes at a time when markets are already navigating conflicting signals between rising military deployments and ongoing ceasefire discussions. As such, it reinforces the underlying geopolitical premium in oil, with traders likely to remain highly reactive to any signs of further escalation or confirmation of operational moves. The Persian Guld is north of the Strait of Hormuz. Its entire east side laps the shore of Iran. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.