KEY POINTS:The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 3.50-3.75%The tone is expected to be more "hawkish" with clear signal of a pause and the bar for further cuts being higherWe will get the Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot at this decision (no major changes expected)There will be at least two dissenters against the cut with a maximum of five expectedThe median dot plot projection is expected to remain unchanged with one rate cut for 2026 and another for 2027The market is pricing two more rate cuts in 2026 with the first one coming next June with a new Fed ChairThe Fed is widely expected to deliver a "hawkish" 25 bps cut today bringing the FFR to 3.50-3.75%. The reason for the "hawkish cut" expectations are due to large disagreement among Fed members, which is what prompted Fed Chair Powell to admit that a December cut was not a foregone conclusion at the last press conference.At some point the market was pricing just a 30% chance of a rate cut in December and those expectations weighed on risk assets with the S&P 500 falling back to October lows. Everything changed after Fed's Williams endorsed a December cut on November 21. The probabilities for a cut jumped to 60% and from there they just kept on increasing giving support to risk assets.At this meeting, the Fed is likely to go back into neutral stance and confirm that the "insurance easing" process is now over. This would also come with strong data dependency and a message that the bar for further cuts is now much higher. The economic projections are expected to show minimal changes and the dot plot to keep the median projection of one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. STATEMENTGiven the lack of key economic reports like the November NFP and CPI, which were postponed to next week, there shouldn't be material changes to the first paragraph. The statement is likely to bring back the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" message to highlight the pause and the higher bar for further cuts. We should also see more members dissenting for a rate cut this time. The expectations range from a minimum of 2 to a maximum of 5. This won't be a surprise, although 5 would be slightly more hawkish. Based on the recent speeches and commentary, the likely dissenters should be Schmid, Collins, Musalem and Goolsbee. Fed's Barr hasn't committed to either action and Fed's Cook hasn't commented on policy since the October meeting. The former could dissent while the latter should support the rate cut. Potential surprises:No rate cut - very hawkishStronger pause message with something like "risks in achieving employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance" - slightly hawkishFive dissenters - slightly hawkishOne dissenter - slightly dovishNo dissenters - dovishSUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS AND DOT PLOTThe Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is expected to remain roughly unchanged given the lack of key economic reports and material changes in the economy. At the margin, we could see slight downgrade to inflation projections and upgrade to unemployment rate.The median projection in the Dot Plot is also expected to remain unchanged with one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. Despite the market pricing two rate cuts in 2026, it should tolerate the Fed keeping the dot plot unchanged with one cut in 2026.Potential surprises:Zero rate cuts in 2026 - very hawkishTwo rate cuts in 2026 - dovishThree rate cuts in 2026 - very dovishPRESS CONFERENCEFed Chair Powell will have a hard time striking a balance between not sounding too hawkish or too dovish. He's likely to say that the process of insurance cuts is now over and that the extent of further easing will hinge on the data. His goal will likely be keeping things as neutral as possible, and to defer future policy actions to the economic data. Therefore, stressing data dependency should be his playbook.MARKET PRICINGDecember cut: 90% probabilityTotal easing by the end of 2026: 73 bps (2 more rate cuts)Next fully priced in cut in June 2026MARKET REACTIONHawkish surprises:Stock market downPrecious metals downShort-term bonds downCryptocurrencies downUSD up *If we see an aggressive selloff in the stock market protracting for days, at some point it should start weighing on the dollar as the market will likely price in more or more aggressive rate cuts further down the curve.Dovish surprises:Stock market upPrecious metals upCryptocurrencies upLong term bonds downUSD down This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Someone told me that Etheruem rally had no volume so I had to go and check that deeply. His claim? Some flashy instagram post. So I had to deep dive with orderFlow Intel.Ethereum futures exploded higher on December 9, pushing from the low 3,100s into the 3,409 zone before pulling back into the mid-3,300s. With the FOMC meeting hours away, traders are asking one major question:Was yesterday’s rally a bull trap?Using orderFlow Intel, investingLive.com's proprietary AI-supported order flow engine, the answer for now is no.Ethereum currently earns a +4 score on our -10 to +10 sentiment scale:-10 = extremely bearish0 = neutral or indecisive+10 = extremely bullishA +4 reflects a clear bullish bias, supported by price structure, volume, and order flow patterns “under the hood,” but also acknowledges the potential for volatility around tonight’s FOMC decision.This report explains why the move does not exhibit classic bull trap signatures, why volume was healthier than some believe, and what key levels traders should watch during the next 24–48 hours.This analysis is educational and for decision support only. It is not investment advice. Always trade at your own risk.1. Market Context Since December 1Ethereum’s market structure has been clean, progressive, and consistent with a bullish continuation:December 1 – Capitulation FlushFutures dropped from ~3,060 to 2,728 on high selling pressure.But the close near 2,800 VWAP suggested meaningful buy absorption.December 2–3 – First Bullish ImpulseETH reclaimed 3,000 and rallied to ~3,178.This created the first leg of the uptrend, driven by solid buy volume.December 4–5 & 7–8 – Sideways BaseSeveral sessions formed a tight horizontal range between 3,000 – 3,250, repeatedly rejecting breakdowns under 3,000. This built a structural base.December 9 – Breakout DayETH surged from ~3,125 to 3,409.Price broke through the previously untouched 3,257 level and held above it.The next upside reference is 3,451.5 (a higher naked level).As of early December 10:Price holds near 3,330–3,350, aboveYesterday’s VWAP at ~3,277, andYesterday’s POC near 3,335.5,And the reclaimed naked level 3,257.This is not typical post-trap behavior. It is what we see when a market accepts higher value.The simple and effective technical analysis (but before the important 'under the hood' order flow analysis below) The following Ethereum futures technical analysis video is for context, it is not part of orderFlow Intel analysis which reveals hints under the hood, and beyond the charts you are looking at.But it is still a relevant and important context.The above video is a continuation of my previous on 08 Dec: Ethereum Technical Analysis on the 4 Hour Chart: A Potential Bull Flag, and Upcoming FOMC (again, with the video, they do not represent the complete technical analysis but don't miss it, if you want to get a good view of the context).2. Volume Analysis – Addressing Claims of Weak VolumeSome on social media claim yesterday’s rally lacked volume.The data shows otherwise:Key point:The December 9 rally occurred on higher volume than four of the previous six sessions.That is not a bull trap signature.Bull traps typically show:Low volume breakouts, orClimactic high volume with a weak close and heavy selling pressure.Neither is present here.3. What orderFlow Intel Sees Beneath the SurfaceWhile most traders see price candles, orderFlow Intel analyzes:Aggressive buy vs aggressive sell activity (delta)How buyers and sellers behave near the highs and lows of each sessionVolume clustering and acceptance zonesVWAP dynamicsRecurring behavioral patterns detected by AIThis deeper layer is generally inaccessible to retail traders.Understanding Delta (in simple terms)Delta > 0: more aggressive buyers than sellersDelta < 0: more aggressive sellersExamining delta near the low or high of the session helps identify who is truly in control.Delta progression this month:1 Dec: Heavy selling delta during the flush, but strong absorption into VWAP.2–3 Dec: Strong positive delta – confirming genuine buyer aggression.4–5 Dec: Negative delta – sellers counterattack during consolidation.8 Dec: Positive delta returns as ETH reclaims 3,150+.9 Dec (yesterday):Moderately positive delta, not euphoric.Buyers engaged at both dips and highs.Price closed well above VWAP.No evidence of exhaustion or distribution near the top.If this were a bull trap, orderFlow Intel would expect:Heavy selling delta into the highs, orA very strong positive delta spike followed by a weak close.We saw neither.This is why ETH earns a +4 bullish score instead of a neutral or bearish one.4. Why Yesterday’s Move Does Not Look Like a Bull Trap✔ Volume supports the moveVolume increased significantly versus the consolidation days.✔ Value shifted higherETH is trading around yesterday’s POC, not collapsing below it.✔ Key technical levels heldETH remains above 3,257Above yesterday’s VWAP (3,277)Above 3,221 and 3,150 – prior rejection zones✔ Order flow does not indicate distributionNo signs of aggressive selling at the highs. No delta-based exhaustion. Buyers are still active near pullbacks.Conclusion:The rally has structural legitimacy. It is not behaving like a bull trap.5. Critical Levels for Traders to MonitorUpside3,409 – yesterday’s high3,451.5 – next major naked level A breakout with strong buy flow would reinforce the bullish case.Immediate Support3,335–3,350 – yesterday’s POC3,277 – yesterday’s VWAPHolding above these keeps ETH in a constructive posture.Major Support Zone3,257 – reclaimed naked level3,221 – 3,150 – deeper consolidation shelfBearish Reversal WarningA daily close below 3,257 with strong selling participation and falling value would warn that the breakout is failing.6. FOMC: What Could Change the Picture in the Next 48 HoursThe FOMC is the wildcard.Bullish continuation scenarioETH holds above 3,257–3,277 after volatilityPullbacks are boughtValue remains above 3,330ETH breaks 3,409 with healthy order flowShakeout then resumeSharp volatility in both directionsTemporary dip to 3,221–3,257Recovery above yesterday’s VWAP This is common during major macro events.Real bull trap scenarioSpike toward 3,451.5Followed by a reversal and daily close below 3,257With clear negative delta and heavy selling volumeThat would likely reduce the score toward neutral (0 to -2).7. How to Use orderFlow Intel as Decision SupportorderFlow Intel—guided by the expertise of Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive.com—distills institutional-grade order flow analysis into a clear, actionable score:+4 today means:Bullish structureHealthy volumeNo evidence of a bull trapBut heightened sensitivity to macro eventsTraders can use this insight as a second opinion, especially those who may not have access to advanced delta and volumetric analytics.Final Thoughts & Disclaimer for Ethereum Traders Before the FOMC TonightAt this time, Ethereum futures do not show the typical fingerprints of a bull trap. Volume supports the move. Order flow is constructive. Key levels are holding.But with the FOMC ahead, volatility risk is elevated. The next 24–48 hours will determine whether ETH continues its upward trajectory or revisits lower value areas.Educational use only. Not investment advice. Trade at your own risk. Ethereum futures, like all leveraged instruments, carry substantial market risk. Always conduct your own research and use appropriate risk controls. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1800 (EUR 2.13 bn)1.1750 (EUR 1.20 bn)1.1580 (EUR 1.70 bn)1.1500 (EUR 3.10 bn)USD/JPY156.00 (US$ 888.40 mn)GBP/USD1.3460 (GBP 547.69 mn)1.3300 (GBP 539.66 mn)1.3230 (GBP 468.71 mn)1.3150 (GBP 386.57 mn)USD/CHF0.8100 (US$ 373.54 mn)0.7925 (US$ 375.00 mn)USD/CAD1.4200 (US$ 568.23 mn)1.3550 (US$ 622.00 mn)AUD/USD0.6800 (AUD 785.29 mn)0.6700 (AUD 450.27 mn)0.6600 (AUD 860.15 mn)0.6520 (AUD 860.93 mn)NZD/USD0.5700 (NZD 557.89 mn)EUR/GBP0.8700 (EUR 568.07 mn)Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

He's been talking mostly about the French economy but touched on the ECB policy too now. Goes without saying that this is no news for the market as no rate cut is expected.The market has been actually starting to look for signs that the ECB could hike rates in 2026 or 2027. Right now, there's a 33% probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the end of 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

No need to change rates with inflation at targetData suggests inflation and GDP risks are fairly balancedI feel December rate decision won't be difficultThis has been the core ECB message for a long time now. The central bank is not expected to cut at all for years, on the contrary, the market is pricing some tightening in 2026 following the hawkish comments from ECB's Schnabel recently. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:BoC is expected to hold interest rates steady at 2.25%The central bank will likely scrap the caveats for further easing effectively marking the end of the easing cycleThe market has fully priced in a rate hike in 2026, but the BoC is unlikely to validate that just yetGiven the caveats in the strong Canadian data, Governor Macklem should still sound cautious but keep options on the tableThe Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. That would keep interest rates at the lower bound of the central bank's estimated neutral range of 2.25-3.25%. We won't get the economic projections at this decision. The BoC will likely scrap any signal to further easing to solidly confirm the end of the easing cycle, but not validate the rate hike bets just yet. Governor Macklem is expected to sound cautious about the recent economic data but still more hawkish than his previous press conferences. STATAMENTAt the last decision, the central bank cut interest rates to 2.25% and signalled the move to the sidelines while keeping some caveats in the statement. We should see some notable changes.The central bank should acknowledge the recent improvement in GDP but also highlight the weak details, keeping it a bit cautious. They should admit the strength in the labour market though despite the drop in full-time jobs. The outlook around inflation will likely remain unchanged as the Bank continues to see inflation in check for now.The "Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level" could see a slight change to a stronger neutral stance by scrapping the "about". PRESS CONFERENCEGovernor Macklem is expected to strike a cautious tone while delivering a stronger neutral message and indicating the readiness to respond if the outlook were to change. He's likely to highlight the caveats in the recent GDP and labour market reports. In fact, GDP strength was mostly due to a big drop in imports and the advance October GDP reading showed -0.3% contraction. On the labour market data side, there's no doubt it's been on a hot streak and the latest release showed the biggest drop in the unemployment rate in 20 years (excluding Covid). The only negative part was the loss in full-time jobs.MARKET PRICINGDecember cut: 0% probability2026 hike: 100% probabilityTotal 2026 tightening: 35 bpsMARKET REACTIONGiven the expectations and market pricing, it's unlikely to see big moves for the CAD today (especially considering the focus on the FOMC decision). The central bank will need to push back on the market pricing to see notable CAD weakness or open the door for rate hikes to give the CAD some further boost. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. Given the looming Fed's decision, the price action today will likely be rangebound into the event. In the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC monetary policy decisions. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the caveats to further easing to solidly state that the easing cycle is over. This follows a slate of strong Canadian data that culminated with a blockbuster employment report last Friday. The market doesn't expect any more rate cuts, on the contrary, it has fully priced in a rate hike by the end of 2026. The BoC might not sound hawkish yet, but it will very likely start to slowly move into that direction.The Fed is expected to deliver a "hawkish" 25 bps cut and bring the FFR to 3.50-3.75%. We will also get the Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot at this decision. Traders will look for hawkish or dovish signals in the statement, dot plot and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. After this cut, the market expects two more rate cuts in 2026: one is fully priced in by next June and the other by next December. The Fed projected just one rate cut in 2026, so a deviation from that forecast will influence expectations. If the Fed were to leave its one cut projection unchanged for 2026, it will likely be tolerated despite being more hawkish compared to market pricing. Less than one or more than one is what should trigger a stronger reaction. Central bank speakers:10:45 GMT/05:45 ET - BoE Governor Bailey (neutral - voter)10:55 GMT/05:55 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - BoC Press Conference19:30 GMT/14:30 ET - FOMC Press Conference This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

China November CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% expectedChina likely to cut RRR rate next year - reportJapan PM Takaichi asked about rising yields, says closely watching market movesZelensky signals Ukaine's answer to Trumps peace plan will come WednesdayTrump: I hear that autopen might have signed the appointments of Fed board governorsJapan November corporate goods prices index +2.7% vs +2.7% expectedJapanese Reuters Tankan December manufacturing +10 vs +17 priorTrump to kick off final Fed interviews this week: Hassett remains in poll positionTrump says he will be meeting with "a couple" people for the Fed chair jobNew Zealand October migration +2400Markets:Gold down $3 to $4206US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.18%WTI crude up 7 cents to $58.32S&P 500 futures flatJPY leads, NZD lagsThere wasn't much in terms of market moves to start the day. The main one was silver hitting a fresh record high above $61 but it was fleeting move and it's now given back most of the gains. What got some of the market's attention was Trump talking about Biden using autopen to appoint Fed Governors. That's being taken as a joke and it should be noted that they're approved by Congress so it's hardly like undoing an executive order. In any case, it's another example of how badly Trump wants lower rates.In China, the CPI headline was in-line but the m/m reading was soft and so was PPI. That's couple with fresh stimulus talk in China and a report about an RRR cut. It all tees up an interesting 2026 as some recent profit taking has hit Chinese stock markets.Looking ahead, it's Fed day but we will also look out for Zelensky's response to Trump's peace plan. Optimism is low but you never know. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices have been struggling in part due to hopes for peace. Indications from Trump and Russia were that sanctions relief would come with any deal and that would allow Russian crude to flow more freely.As for the chances of a deal, they're low but peace after a long war always seems impossible until it does. These things often tend to move quickly and Trump certainly has ways to lean on Ukraine to give up a large part of its territory forever. On the ground, Russia is inching ahead but Ukraine has little capability to mount any kind of counter-attack. They're having some success on raising the economic toll on Russia but that's a tough way to win a war against a country that's seen surprisingly strong economic growth since the outset of the conflict. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The yen is the top performer so far in Asian trading as it undoes some of yesterday's damage. USD/JPY is down 30 pips to 156.57 and it was helped along by Japanese PM Takaichi who said they were closely watching market moves. She was mostly talking about rising yields but effectively, it's two sides of the same coin.Looking at the chart, we have made a big round trip this year and are almost back at the 158 high from January. The Bank of Japan is also increasingly likely to hike next week and that should weigh on the yen, particularly with the Fed set to cut rates today.All that indicates we're more likely to see some consolidation below the recent highs along with some short-term back-and-fill to 156.00. The big short term risk is that Powell is unusually hawkish, though that will be hard to do along with a cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflective fundamentalsWill take appropriate action of excessive, disorderly movesAt what point does some serious worry hit the Japanese debt market? It's no fun losing money on 10-year notes day after day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Silver continues to rally, it's up 68-cents in Asia to $61.36, which is a fresh record high.Silver is turning into a retail fomo trade if it hasn't already. And the thing about silver is that when it rallies, it can really rally.Trump talking (joking?) about vetoing Fed Governors due to Biden's autopen certainly isn't hurting the case for buying silver. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2%m/m CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% expPPI -2.2% vs -2.0% y/yThis is a step in the right direction but the PPI still shows falling prices and the m/m CPI. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump may be looking to stack the Fed.If Trump goes down this path it would be bearish for the US dollar and wildly bullish for precious metals and hard assets. The long end would hate it and there would be a big steepener. Biden appointed: JeffersonBarrCookKuglerKugler has already resigned and been replaced by Miran.If Trump were to replace the other three and the chair, he would have enough votes to do whatever he wanted, presuming that Waller, Bowman and Miran continued to back his agenda. It would be the end of Fed independence.I don't think the market will take this too seriously but this is floating a major shakeup to monetary policy and it would be an atomic bomb. Talk like this might lead Powell to stay on as a Governor when his term expires. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We get Chinese CPI data later but the high estimate is +1.1% and the consensus is +0.7% so rate cuts shouldn't be a surprise.The December Politburo meeting continued with the text on a "more proactive" fiscal policy and a "moderately loose" monetary policy.The newswire report says the report is from the local press. I'll work to find the source. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.