Prior 2kUnemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expectedPrior 6.3%German unemployment falls unexpectedly in August with the jobless rate continuing to hold steady at 6.3%. The labour office noted that "the jobs market is still marked by the economic downturn of recent years but there are also first signs of stabilisation". This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

For some context, Wicker is one of the more vocal advocates for Taiwan in Congress and said that his visit is to reinforce the "great partnership" between the two camps. As he arrives in Taipei, he adds that "we are here to get a better understanding of the needs and concerns of our friends in Taiwan". That as Taiwan president, Lai Ching-te, reaffirms that he hopes to increase security cooperation with the US.All of this comes as China continues to step up military pressures on Taiwan, with Beijing set to hold a mass military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. The event will feature Russian president Vladimir Putin as well as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, so it will be quite the occasion. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB flatIt's been a sluggish affair for European stocks this week but on the month of August, it's been a positive one. The exception being the France's CAC 40 index after the big drag earlier in the week owing to domestic political woes. US futures are also more tepid today, with S&P 500 futures currently down 0.1% with month-end trading in focus for the day ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.7%HICP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.7%The headline readings are the same as they were in July but core annual inflation is seen creeping a little higher to 2.4%, up from 2.3% in the month before. So, that is something to keep an eye out for at least. Anyway, this just serves to reaffirm the ECB rate outlook for the time being. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.0%HICP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.9%The monthly headline figure does show that consumer prices are seen up another 0.4%, up for three straight months now. But the headline annual estimate is seen moderating a little with services inflation in particular easing to 2.1% from 2.5% in July. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%No changes to the initial estimate with the breakdown showing contributions from consumption (+0.10%) and inventory changes (+0.52%), offset by net foreign trade (-0.27%). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The start of the week saw the focus stay on the post-Jackson Hole reaction but there wasn't much follow through in the end. The dollar fell after Fed chair Powell's dovish tilt at the end of last week but recovered in the opening stages this week. That came as markets push the limits of Fed pricing, in moving to expect two rate cuts by year-end.That before some dollar selling came by again in the past few sessions, resetting dollar sentiment for the most part. The focus is on month-end now before we switch over to waiting for US labour market data in the week ahead. But so far today, there isn't much action with major currencies holding relatively muted.The changes are light around 0.1% or at most 15 pips for dollar pairs currently, highlighting the lack of appetite to start the session. There should be extension of the ranges in the hours ahead but all eyes will be on price action in the run up to the London fix for any volatility kick.Otherwise, the final trading day this week might end up being a bit of a dud as traders and investors wait on the non-farm payrolls release to reaffirm Fed rate cut expectations.The changes for dollar pairs on the week highlight the push and pull and lack of conviction for the most part. That is besides some minor extended action in commodity currencies. Here is how dollar pairs are faring so far this week:EUR/USD: -0.4%USD/JPY: +0.1%GBP/USD: -0.1%USD/CHF: +0.1%USD/CAD: -0.5%AUD/USD: +0.7%NZD/USD: +0.5% This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures flatOverall, it's a poor week for European equities as investors take a bit of a breather in wrapping up August trade. On the month though, it's been another positive one except for France - which is dragged down by domestic political concerns. US futures are also holding more tentative after the slight gains yesterday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.0%That's a real bummer as German retail sales once again comes in with a big miss on estimates. Of note, sales in the food retail sector fell by 1.8% compared to June. Meanwhile, non-food retail sector sales also declined by 0.7% on the month. But compared to the same month last year, retail sales are at least seen up 1.9%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0%Even if you exclude energy prices, import prices are still down 0.4% on the month compared to June. The breakdown shows declines across all areas, with prices for intermediate goods down 0.5%, capital goods down 0.2%, and durable consumer goods down 0.4%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Will that continue into the London fix later? That's always the tricky part of dealing with price action and market flows during month-end trading. As things stand, it's hard to gather all too much conviction amid the market moves we're seeing in the past few sessions.Fed funds futures are already pricing in ~84% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for September and ~54 bps of rate cuts by year-end. That underscores the prevailing sentiment going into the next FOMC meeting in the month ahead. US stocks are keeping the positive momentum though, with tech shares pushing higher again yesterday. That despite Nvidia slipping, though they are well off the lows posted right after the earnings release late Wednesday.For the dollar, that's about the few drivers in play as we look to wrap up the week. But on a day like this, month-end focus might dominate everything else and we'll only get a better idea of where things stand come next week. Even then though, the focus will shift towards the US jobs report on 5 September next. From before:Weak dollar selling the signal this month-end - BarclaysMild dollar selling expected into month-end fix - Credit Agricole This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In July, we saw headline annual inflation stick at 2.0% at the national level while core annual inflation was at 2.7%. The latter continues to be a sticking point for the ECB, with Europe's largest economy still unable to observe a meaningful drop in price pressures. That is keeping the central bank guarded with no rate cuts expected in Q3 at least.The good news for the ECB is that the overall economy across the region is holding more resilient. As such, that's not applying too much pressure on them to cut rates quickly amid stickier price pressures.The estimate for the German inflation today is for the headline figure to come in a little higher at 2.1%. On a monthly basis though, headline inflation is expected to be flat from July to August. But as always, the core reading is the main one to be mindful of.Here's the agenda for today:0800 GMT - North Rhine Westphalia0800 GMT - Hesse0800 GMT - Bavaria0800 GMT - Baden Wuerttemberg0800 GMT - Saxony1200 GMT - Germany national preliminary figuresDo note that the releases don't exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Besides the focus on month-end flows to wrap up the week, the barrage of inflation data will at least keep things interesting in the European session ahead. Now, they are likely to just reaffirm that price pressures continue to hold up somewhat in August. As such, that won't change the narrative whatsoever for the ECB.The central bank is on pause mode through the summer and for now, markets are also anticipating that policymakers will not have much conviction to even cut rates again by year-end.The money market pricing shows just ~9 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year. So barring any major surprises, the threshold is quite high for the data today to provoke any meaningful market reactions. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Asian markets were mixed, with USD majors drifting and commodity FX slightly firmer. Fed Governor Waller stuck to his rate-cut script, while Japan’s CPI stayed above target. In China, a stronger yuan fix and surging equities capped a solid month.China stocks: Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month CSI 300 Index target to 4,900 from 4,500Pressure on Fed Gov Cook ramps up with pulte referring a third property transactionChina official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will be published over the weekendJapan finmin Kato say he is aware of rising interest ratesChina state planner says household consumption capability, confidence needs to be improvedUS VP Vance confirms the end of Federal Reserve independenceAustralian Private sector credit (July 2025) +0.7% m/m (expected +0.6%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1030 (vs. estimate at 7.1274)Caterpillar expects a US$1.5bn to 1.8bn hit from tariffs (up from prior 1.3 to 1.5)UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves could boost revenues by imposing a windfall tax on banksJapan July Industrial Output -1.6% m/m (exp -1.0%) & Retail sales +0.3% y/y (exp +1.8)Tokyo August 2025 headline CPI 2.6% y/y (2.6% expected)Japan July Unemployment rate 2.3% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)Fed's Waller says interest rates will be cut toward neutral, only question is how quicklyTrump’s Fed pick Stephen Miran hearing to be September 4, US Senate Banking Committee saysFed's Waller says the time has come to move US interest rates lowerFinancial Times:Canada does not expect Donald Trump to drop all his tariffs on the countryNew Zealand August consumer confidence down 2.9% m/m in August (Prior -4.1%)Iran’s foreign minister hits back at France, Germany and United KingdomPowell pivot boosts equities; SocGen expects 100bps cuts and higher markets aheadinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 Aug: USD continues the decline started yesterdayBrazil plans to sign a trade agreement with Mexico this time next yearTrump official announces 'transitory' taxes for the next six monthsIt was a mixed session for regional equities and major FX in Asia. EUR/USD and GBP/USD edged lower, while AUD, NZD and CAD found a modest bid.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, seen as a contender for the Fed chair role under Trump, stuck to his recent script of backing rate cuts, flagging September as the starting point for easing. In other Fed-related news, Pulte referred a third property transaction for review.Japan’s August CPI was broadly in line with forecasts, with core-core slightly above expectations and still above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Consumer inflation has now held above 2% for more than three years. USD/JPY traded a contained 146.80–147.10 range.In China, the People’s Bank of China has lifted the CNY fixing by 0.65% through August, the biggest monthly shift since September 2024. The onshore CSI 300 is up around 10% this month, with turnover on track to hit a record. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.25%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.66%Shanghai Composite +0.16%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.11% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China stocks: Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month CSI 300 Index target to 4,900 from 4,500 Goldman cites:supportive valuationshigh single-digit profit growthfavorable positioninguptrend has momentumthere are some profit-taking pressuresliquidity factors and valuation expansion—rather than cyclical fundamentals—are driving global equity gains This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump with the tweet referring to a Bloomberg piece on a third property transaction now being questined. Earlier Vice President Vance confirmed Trump is hunting to dismantle Federal Reserve independence:US VP Vance confirms the end of Federal Reserve independenceCook has taken legal action against Trump, the initial hearing is scheduled for today, Friday, August 29, 2025, US time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will be published over the weekend. At 0130 GMT on Sunday August 31, which is 2230 US Eastern time on Saturday, August 30, 2025 Manufacturing PMI for August is expected to have remained in contractionary territory for the fifth consecutive month:expected 49.4, prior 49.3Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing this year, along with recent extreme summer weather and Beijing's recent efforts to curb excess capacity have dampened factory activity.Non-Manufacturing PMIexpected 50.3, prior 50.1Composite PMI prior 50.2 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finmin Kato:Aware of rising interest rates, will continue to engage with bond market participants and manage debt policies appropriately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China state planner spokesperson:We are aware that household consumption capability and confidence needs to be improvedWe are aware companies’ competition has intensifiedWill study further increasing support from central govt to reduce funding pressure for local govts for people’s livelihood projectsWill investigate dumping cases, misleading promotions, improve governance of ‘disorderly competition’China is trying to boost domestic demand. One of the steps it appears to be taking is to raise the value of the yuan. This would encourage, at the margin, the consumption of imprted goods and services, for example. Over the course of this month the Bank has raised the CNY mid-rate by 0.65%, the biggest shift since September 2024. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s foreign minister has written a letter to the head of EU foreign policyFrance, Germany and United Kingdom have no legal jurisdiction to trigger automatic re-imposition of sanctions on IranIran ready to resume diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear programme provided that other parties demonstrate seriousness and goodwillAny E3 efforts to revive UN Security Council resolutions that were terminated under Resolution 2231 are invalid and ineffectiveOil traders will be keeping an eye on Iran developments. An escalation in the Middle East will act as a tailwind for oil prices. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.