Today's Japanese trade and investment data are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan is poised to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike this week, as signs of economic recovery continue to build following last quarter’s contraction.Japan’s exports rose for a third consecutive month in November, climbing 6.1% year on year and comfortably beating market expectations. The rebound was driven by solid demand from the United States and Europe, as well as a recovery in global semiconductor demand following the finalisation of the U.S. trade deal. Exports to the U.S. rose 8.8%, while shipments to the EU jumped nearly 20%, highlighting improving external momentum.By sector, machinery and electrical machinery exports showed broad-based strength, with semiconductor shipments up 13%, mirroring trends across Asia’s major chip exporters. Motor vehicle exports declined overall, though shipments to the U.S. edged higher and exports to Europe remained robust. Regional demand was mixed, with exports to several Asian economies rising sharply, while shipments to China fell modestly, reflecting lingering uncertainty around bilateral tensions and weak pricing in certain commodity-linked categories.Imports grew more slowly than exports, allowing Japan’s trade balance to swing back into surplus in November. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade balance has now recorded small surpluses for two consecutive months, providing a positive contribution to fourth-quarter growth.The recovery narrative was reinforced by a sharp rise in core machinery orders, which rose 7.0% month on month in October, following a strong increase in September. Overseas demand continues to outpace domestic demand, suggesting export momentum may remain supportive in coming months, even as non-manufacturing investment lags.Taken together, the data strengthen the case for a near-term BoJ rate hike, even as policymakers are expected to keep forward guidance neutral. As flagged in my earlier post on yen weakness and policy normalisation, improving growth dynamics are now aligning with currency and inflation considerations to push rate hike odds higher. -ps. You'll see in the attached USD/JPY chart pic the yen is having trouble holding gains despite expectations of a BoJ rate hie. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s persistently weak yen is emerging as the decisive factor that could allow the Bank of Japan and the government to align behind a long-awaited rate hike this month, according to an analysis by Alicia Garcia Herrero (twitter @Aligarciaherrer)Despite concerns around U.S. tariffs and broader geopolitical risks, Japan’s economy has proved more resilient than expected. Business sentiment data from the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey showed a modest improvement in conditions for large manufacturers, while sentiment in the services sector remained elevated. Even areas exposed to China-Japan political tensions, such as tourism-related industries, have seen only limited deterioration, suggesting external headwinds have so far been absorbed.Beneath that resilience, however, the weak yen has become an increasingly pressing policy problem. Garcia Herrero notes that while nominal wage growth is picking up, regular wages rose 2.6% year-on-year in October, and services inflation has firmed, real wages continue to fall. Surging food prices and higher import costs are eroding household purchasing power, restraining private consumption and amplifying the inflationary impact of currency weakness.Inflation expectations remain anchored above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target across short-, medium- and long-term horizons, strengthening the case for further policy normalisation. Core inflation has been pushed higher by food prices, and the yen’s continued weakness around the 155 level against the dollar risks reinforcing imported inflation pressures.Against this backdrop, Garcia Herrero argues the political calculus may be shifting. The Takaichi government, historically cautious about tighter policy, appears increasingly willing to tolerate a rate hike as the costs of a weak currency become more visible to households. She expects the BoJ to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its December 19 meeting.Looking ahead, she suggests that if the yen fails to stabilise after the move, and continues to weigh on real incomes, the government may also accept further tightening, potentially opening the door to another 25-basis-point hike early next year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

India’s central bank is signalling that interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period, even as policymakers assess the potential growth impact from evolving U.S. trade arrangements. Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said recent projections suggest policy settings should remain low for a long period of time, according to comments reported by the Financial Times.Malhotra’s remarks reinforce the RBI’s cautious stance as it balances moderating inflation against emerging external risks. While domestic price pressures have eased from recent peaks, the central bank appears reluctant to tighten prematurely, particularly as global growth uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook.One such risk highlighted by the governor is the potential economic impact of a U.S. trade deal. Malhotra said changes to trade arrangements could impact by as much as around half a percentage point on India’s growth, underscoring the sensitivity of Asia’s third-largest economy to shifts in global trade flows and external demand. While details of the trade impact remain limited, the comments suggest the RBI is factoring external risks into its policy calculus.The signal of rates staying low for a prolonged period aligns with the RBI’s broader messaging that policy should remain supportive as growth normalises. A prolonged accommodative stance would help cushion the economy against external shocks while allowing policymakers to monitor how trade developments, capital flows and global financial conditions evolve.For markets, Malhotra’s comments push back against anyone with expectations of near-term policy tightening and reinforce the view that India is likely to lag some global peers in normalising rates. Lower-for-longer guidance may also help anchor borrowing costs for households and businesses, supporting investment and consumption amid an uncertain external backdrop.While the RBI has stopped short of providing explicit forward guidance, the emphasis on risks and the need for patience suggests the bar for rate hikes remains high. The central bank appears focused on preserving growth momentum while maintaining flexibility should global conditions deteriorate further. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as this week that would accelerate the reclassification of cannabis under federal law and formally recognise its medical value for the first time, according to people familiar with the plans. The move would mark a significant shift in U.S. drug policy, though it would stop short of full federal legalisation.Cannabis is currently classified as a Schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act, placing it alongside heroin and LSD and deeming it to have no accepted medical use. Reclassifying it to Schedule III would ease regulatory barriers, allow broader Food and Drug Administration research and potentially enable cannabis-derived products to be prescribed as pharmaceuticals, regardless of state-level legal frameworks.Trump confirmed earlier this week that the administration is actively considering the change, citing the need to unlock medical research that is currently restricted by cannabis’s classification. The executive order is expected to instruct either the Drug Enforcement Administration or Attorney General Pam Bondi to complete the long-running rescheduling process and publish a final rule moving cannabis to Schedule III. That formal review began under the Biden administration in 2024 but has been stalled for administrative reasons this year.While the order would not legalise cannabis federally, it could include additional directives with material implications for the industry. One option under consideration is a call for Congress to pass the bipartisan SAFER Banking Act, which would allow licensed cannabis businesses access to the U.S. banking system. Another potential provision would direct federal health agencies to permit Medicare reimbursement for CBD-based products.The policy push follows a series of high-level meetings between Trump and cannabis industry executives, as well as discussions involving senior health officials including FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and CMS administrator Mehmet Oz.Politically, the move aligns with Trump’s 2024 campaign pledge to expand access to medical marijuana and highlights his willingness to break with parts of the Republican establishment. While recreational legalisation remains off the table at the federal level, a Schedule III designation would represent the most consequential shift in U.S. cannabis policy in decades. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Silver prices have surged to fresh record highs, a dramatic reflection of evolving market dynamics that are pushing the industrial metal well beyond historical norms. In trading today, spot silver reached an intraday peak above US$65 per ounce, eclipsing previous records and marking one of the strongest rallies among commodities in 2025. The rally has been underpinned by a rare combination of persistent supply deficits and robust demand from both industry and investors. Global surveys show that the silver market has posted structural deficits for a fifth consecutive year, as mined output remains constrained while consumption in renewable energy, electronics, and other industrial sectors continues to expand. Macro forces have also been influential. Expectations of looser monetary policy and continued real-yield compression have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals, attracting interest from institutional portfolios seeking diversification and inflation hedges. Silver’s dual role as both a critical industrial input and a store of value has widened its investor base beyond traditional bullion market participants, with ETF inflows and retail interest adding to upward price pressure. Silver’s ascent has far outpaced that of gold this year, reflecting its heavier industrial weighting and heightened demand from sectors tied to decarbonisation and digitalisation. The metal’s leap past oil prices, a rare milestone not seen in decades, underscores how fundamental and speculative drivers can converge in commodity markets. However, analysts caution that silver’s volatility remains elevated. Profit-taking episodes and the metal’s sensitivity to macroeconomic signals (such as interest rate expectations and U.S. jobs data) mean sharp pullbacks are possible even as long-term structural drivers remain supportive. Looking ahead, continued tight physical markets, industrial adoption, and strategic positioning by investors could keep silver prices elevated, but the trajectory will remain closely tied to broader economic conditions and monetary policy expectations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US November non-farm payrolls +64K vs +50K expectedUS Retail sales for October rises by 0.0% versus 0.1% estimateS&P Global flash manufacturing PMI December 51.8 versus 52.0 estimateFed's Bostic warns against too much monetary policy easingNew Zealand consumer confidence jumps in the fourth quarterHassett jumps back into the lead as the betting favorite for the Fed jobBOC Macklem: Policy rate is about right to keep inflation close to 2%.Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast 3.5% vs 3.6% previouslyUS business inventories for September 0.2% versus 0.1% estimateWH economic advisor Hassett: There is plenty of room to cut ratesMarkets:Gold up $8 to $4309US 10-year yields down 3.3 bps to 4.15%WTI crude down $1.58 to $55.11S&P 500 flatGBP leads, AUD lagsIt was an unusual non-farm payrolls report as it combined October and November for the headline but only November for the unemployment rate. The latter ended up being the most-noteworthy part of the report as it rose to 4.6% from 4.4%, leading to an initial dovish reaction in markets. The odds of a March cut are now up to 58% from 40% before the data.The initial market reaction was in that direction as well as the euro and yen hit session highs but it had less staying power. For one, stocks sold off and that caused some USD buying. We're also in the end-of-year period where moves are tough to pin down. One concerning note was the BofA fund manager survey that showed cash allocations at all-time lows (the survey dates to 1999).After some heavy selling in stocks, there was a late-day rebound led by the Nasdaq and Tesla in particular. The company hit an all-time high for the first time this year and the Nasdaq turned positive late.On the flipside was oil, with crude prices breaking the Liberation Day low of $55.12 and breaking into the lower half of the $50s briefly. There wasn't much of a bounce from there as the market is fearful of oversupply and a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The drop in crude prices is certainly welcome news to central bankers as it's explicit deflation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis - Bear Flag in Control, Key Junctions to WatchKey takeaways (2-minute read):Ethereum futures broke down from an ascending channel, activating a bear flag structure.Price rejected a retest of the former uptrend, reinforcing bearish control for now.A confirmed bullish reversal requires a clean breakout above the red channel.Downside focus is on two critical junctions, with a deeper sell-off possible if crypto weakness accelerates.This is a scenario-based roadmap, not a prediction or advice.Watch the full video analysisThe technical structure I am watching on Ethereum futuresIn the video, I walk through the structure that has been guiding Ethereum futures over recent weeks. The initial blue ascending channel defined the prior uptrend. While the touchpoints were not perfect, they were sufficient to frame directional bias.The key moment came when price broke decisively below that rising channel. When an upward channel fails to the downside, it typically activates a bear flag, signaling a higher probability of continuation lower rather than a one-off breakdown.Price then staged a near-perfect retest of the broken channel. This is a classic location where bulls attempt to reclaim control. Instead, the market rejected that retest and formed an additional touchpoint within a newly defined red descending channel. That rejection was critical. It told me that sellers were still in control and that the prior bullish thesis was no longer valid.I also overlay a pitchfork structure, which acts similarly to channels in identifying balance and trend. When multiple tools align and fail together, it strengthens the signal. In this case, they did.Why I am not bullish (in the short and medium term) on Ethereum as of yetA common mistake traders make is trying to pre-empt a reversal simply because price looks cheap relative to prior highs. From a technical perspective, Ethereum is not a confirmed long unless price breaks and holds above the red descending channel, effectively activating a bull flag.That breakout could happen from several points. It could occur sooner or later. The timing is unknown. What matters is confirmation. Until then, any long exposure carries lower probability.This discipline also means accepting mistakes quickly. In the video, I explain a failed long attempt that occurred on only the second channel touchpoint, which is statistically early. Trends usually mature with three to five touchpoints before a reliable breakout. The lesson is simple: stay agile, drop bias, and react to what the chart shows.The key downside junctions for Ethereum priceUsing volume profile analysis, I marked an important consolidation zone that previously supported price. If bearish pressure persists, Ethereum futures are likely to probe the next downside area around the mid-$1500s to $1600 zone as an orientation level.If crypto markets weaken further, a deeper move becomes possible. In that scenario, a larger high-volume structure sits much lower, with:Value Area High near $1765Point of Control around $1575Reaching that zone would imply a substantial drawdown from current levels. Painful, yes, but technically logical if sellers remain dominant.The scenario framework going forward on Ethereum technical analysis (see video above)Bullish case: A sustained breakout above the red channel would invalidate the bear flag and reopen upside scenarios.Base case: Price continues to rotate lower toward the next downside junction.Bearish extension: Broad crypto weakness drives a deeper test of the lower volume profile zone.There are no certainties in trading. There is only probability management. For now, the chart argues for patience and confirmation rather than anticipation.I will continue tracking Ethereum futures on investingLive.com as the structure evolves. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Key takeaways for the EURJPY technicallyCorrection Mode: EURJPY has broken below the 100-hour (182.39) and 200-hour (181.87) moving averages.Risk Defined: Sellers finally have a clear resistance zone at 182.00–182.39 to lean against.Next Target: A sustained move lower targets the 180.08 support level.EURJPY’s historic rally: the backdropThe EURJPY has been trading at all-time record levels, a move driven by prolonged yen weakness and sustained euro strength. The rally accelerated in October when the pair broke decisively above 176.00, followed by another major psychological break above 180.00 in November. From mid-November, price consolidated between 180.00 and 182.00, digesting gains before resuming the upside on December 9.That breakout unleashed another leg higher, ultimately pushing the pair to a record peak of 183.158 on Friday. However, after reaching that extreme, price has corrected lower both yesterday and again today, raising an important question for traders: is there finally a chink in the armor?Trend dominance vs. temptation to pick a topSo far, trading against the EURJPY trend has been a costly exercise. While the pair has seen periodic pauses and consolidations, corrective moves have remained modest, reinforcing the strength of the broader uptrend. That said, extended currency trends do not last forever, particularly when economic and policy dynamics between two regions/countries begin to shift.Those shifts often develop gradually, but importantly, price action can start to signal change before the macro narrative fully turns. That makes the current technical behavior especially worth watching.Short-term technical cracks begin to showOn the hourly chart, the tone has started to soften:Price has moved below the 100-hour moving average, currently near 182.39It has also slipped below the 200-hour moving average at 181.87The pair is now trading below a key swing area between 181.827 and 182.00The 38.2% retracement of the December rally also sits near the 182.00 levelThe confluence of these technical breaks is important. Moving below this cluster of support gives sellers defined levels to lean against, something they have not had for much of the rally.Risk definition improves for downside tradersWith price currently trading near 181.78, sellers now have clearer ways to define and limit risk:Closer risk can be defined near 182.00, where former support may now act as resistanceMore conservative risk sits near the falling 100-hour moving average at 182.39This structure allows traders looking for a corrective move lower to participate without fighting the trend blindly.Downside targets: modest correction, not trend reversal (yet)If the pullback develops, a modest corrective move could see EURJPY rotate toward the 180.08 level, an area that previously acted as support on November 25, December 1, and December 5 before the final upside breakout. From a risk-reward perspective, traders may be risking roughly 50 pips to potentially target 180 pips, assuming momentum builds to the downside.Central banks loom largeLooking ahead, event risk is significant, with both the ECB rate decision and the Bank of Japan rate decision due later this week. Either could reinforce the dominant trend or accelerate a corrective phase. As always, the trend is your friend, but when risk can be clearly defined, traders still have a choice.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving EURJPY in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Comments in an essay from Bostic:continues to view price stability as the most pressing risk facing FOMCit is unclear whether the labor market is significantly out of balance Expects inflation to remain above 2.5% even at the end of 2026.Sees little to suggest price pressures will dissipate before mid-to-late 2026 at the earliest."Aggressive monetary policy response" is not warranted for current labor market conditions.Moving policy near or into accommodative territory risks exacerbating inflation and untethering expectations.Employment market is, at best, moving sideways; likely conditions are softening but not at a negative inflection point.GDPNow model estimates for Q3 are holding north of 3%; does not view severe downturn as likely.Notes that the recent Dec cut vote included three dissents; calls it a "close call."Will retire in February 2026.He highlighted this table with his inflation concerns.Here is a key line:If underlying inflationary forces linger for many months to come, I am concerned that the public and price setters will eventually doubt that the FOMC will hit the inflation target in any reasonable time frame. Will the public lose faith after five years of above-target inflation? Six years?He didn't have a vote in December but there's a good chance he was arguing against rate cuts. All that said, he will only attend one more meeting before retiring. His replacement will be a voter in 2027. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Consumer confidence jumps to 96.5 from 90.9 in Q3.That's a good sign for spending in New Zealand and highlights upside risks to rates and the kiwi. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The betting market is almost certain the next Fed Chairman will be named Kevin, it's just not sure which one. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh appear to be the finalists based on Trump's comments. There has been a push for current Fed Governor Chris Waller but that doesn't appear to gaining traction. Yesterday, the odds for Warsh briefly spiked but they've retreated just as quickly. Today, Hasset is back in the lead at PredictIt at 57-36%.In terms of markets, I don't think it's a big difference. I'd classify them both as Trump lackeys who will do whatever he demands. The good news for markets is that with oil prices at a four-year low, there is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline and that will clear the way for some easing. The risk is that if oil prices rise (as they inevitably will), then keeping rates too low risks fuelling a fresh round of inflation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I wrote about Comcast yesterday as it was one of the top-10 picks from Barron's for 2026. It looks like the market is taking a closer look at the cable giant and liking what it sees.Shares are up 4.1% and it's the best performer on the S&P 500 in an otherwise sluggish day. Some of that is due to its classic defensive characteristics. Barron's has shares at just 6.7x next year's earnings.In terms of news, the Comcast spinoff Versant debuted in very thin trading today. It includes the cable networks (CNBC, MSNBC, USA, etc.), which are its lowest-multiple assets. The shift explains the hasty CNBC logo change to start the week.What’s left? The "New Comcast" aims to be a cleaner play on:Residential Broadband: High margin, high barrier to entry.Streaming (Peacock): Finally turning the corner on profitability.Theme Parks: The crown jewel (Universal Studios)The "cord-cutting 2.0" narrative has dominated the flows, and the Fixed Wireless Access competition from T-Mobile and Verizon has put a ceiling on sentiment. The Epic Universe theme park opened in May and so far the attendance numbers have been solid.In the bigger picture, this may be indicative of a market that's looking for a new place to happen. There are persistent worries that the AI trade is over-crowded and we saw signs today that the broader market may be overcrowded. If we see a retrenchment or a downturn in the economy, a company like Comcast is likely to outperform. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq is planning to submit paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday in an application for 23-hour weekday trading, according to a Reuters report late yesterday.This pains me because it's unhealthy for traders, and potentially the market.There is something to be said for the ability to stop and think at a quiet time in markets. In FX, 24 hour trading is a necessity but the weekend still provide a valuable respite. In equities, there is no need for more than 3 hours a day of trading and we're already at 16 in the Nasdaq. The lines will increasingly blur between days and the only one this helps is algos. People need time to digest information while algos can grab headlines and move markets while most traders are sleeping.According to the report, the Nasdaq plans to operate two trading sessions, with the day session starting at 4 a.m ET. and ending at 8 p.m., followed by a one-hour break for maintenance, testing, and clearing of trades. The night session will kick off at 9 p.m. and end at 4 a.m. the following calendar day. There will still be the usual bells at 9:30 am and 4 pm ET but that's increasingly a formality. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

BOC Gov. Tiff Macklem is speaking at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montréal. His full speech can be found HERE:Below is a summary of his comments from the speech. Economic outlook and policy backdrop2025 was defined by rising protectionism, particularly from the US, which has disrupted global trade and undermined trust in Canada’s largest trading relationship.Uncertainty remains elevated, especially from tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber, weighing on business investment even as the economy shows overall resilience.Inflation has been near the 2% target for more than a year, and the Bank expects it to remain close to target, despite higher trade-related costs.Structural forces—including AI, climate change, geopolitical risk, and trade fragmentation—are making the global economy more vulnerable to shocks.Monetary policy stance and forward guidancePolicy rate held at 2.25%, which Governing Council sees as about the right level to balance inflation control and economic support.Inflation expectations remain well anchored, reinforcing confidence in the current policy stance.The Bank remains highly responsive to changing conditions, emphasizing that policy will adjust if the outlook shifts.Macklem reaffirmed strong commitment to the 2% inflation target, stating it will not be reconsidered in the 2026 framework renewal.The upcoming 2026 monetary policy framework review will focus on how policy is conducted in a more shock-prone world, not whether inflation targeting remains appropriate.Preserving trust and the value of moneyPrice stability is essential to public trust, and the pandemic-era inflation surge highlighted the costs of losing that trust.Macklem emphasized that restoring inflation without triggering a recession validated the framework, despite the challenges.While inflation has normalized, higher price levels remain, making it critical to keep inflation low and stable so incomes can catch up.The Bank aims to improve transparency, including better communication around inflation, housing affordability, and policy trade-offs.Stablecoins and digital money (separate focus)Stablecoins represent a potentially useful innovation, unlike volatile cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, because they are designed to trade at par with sovereign currencies.Canada plans to introduce a formal regulatory framework for stablecoins, with the Bank of Canada as regulator under proposed federal legislation.Macklem stressed that stablecoins must meet strict conditions to qualify as “good money,” including:1:1 peg to a central bank currencyBacking by high-quality liquid assetsFull transparency on redemption terms and feesStrong operational resilienceThe goal is to allow Canadians to benefit from innovation while minimizing risks to financial stability and trust.Payments, innovation, and the future of moneyThe Bank is expanding its role as a supervisor of retail payments, covering nearly 1,600 payment service providers.Real-Time Rail will allow instant, 24/7 payments, increase competition, and improve cross-border payment efficiency.Consumer-driven banking (open banking) will give Canadians more control over financial data, promote competition, and spur innovation—while requiring strong safeguards against fraud and misuse.Macklem framed the Bank as a “one-stop shop for money you can trust”, overseeing cash, payments, stablecoins, and financial infrastructure.Bottom line for marketsThe BoC is confident inflation is under control, sees the policy rate as appropriately restrictive, and remains ready to respond if conditions change.Trust, stability, and innovation are the core themes heading into 2026, as the Bank prepares for a more volatile global environment.Macklem underscored that the Bank intends to be both a source of stability and an engine of progress, safeguarding the value of money while adapting to change. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECB rate decision ahead as policy divergence narrows between the ECB and FedThe ECB rate decision later this week is widely expected to result in no change in policy, with markets viewing the central bank as already near the lower end of its easing cycle. Recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, as highlighted on InvestingLive, have reinforced a data-dependent stance, with policymakers emphasizing the need to assess incoming inflation, wage, and growth data before committing to further moves. Lagarde has avoided pre-committing to a clear path, stressing that decisions will be taken meeting by meeting, even as inflation pressures continue to ease gradually.From a broader perspective, the policy divergence narrative has begun to shift in favor of the euro. The US Federal Reserve has already started cutting rates, and markets are increasingly focused on the possibility of a more dovish Fed in 2026, particularly with the prospect of a new Fed Chair who may be more tolerant of easing to support growth and employment. By contrast, the ECB appears closer to its terminal low, limiting the scope for aggressive additional cuts in the euro area.Fundamentally, this evolving backdrop has helped support the rise in EURUSD, as rate differentials compress and expectations for future US easing increase. While near-term moves will remain sensitive to incoming data on both sides of the Atlantic, the combination of a data-dependent but relatively constrained ECB and a potentially more accommodative Fed outlook provides a constructive medium-term backdrop for the euro from a fundamental standpoint.Uptrend extends but momentum shows signs of fatigueWhat about the technicals?The EURUSD has been working higher for a fourth consecutive week, reflecting a steady recovery from the September lows and improving sentiment around narrowing policy divergence. That upside push has been technically significant, with the pair breaking above the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the September high, which comes in at 1.1746—a level tied to the highest price since 2021. This break helped fuel further upside momentum and encouraged buyers to target higher resistance zones.Key resistance breaks — and failsEarlier today, the pair extended above a key swing area between 1.1779 and 1.1788, a zone that had capped prior advances. The breakout briefly carried the price to 1.1803, marking the highest level since September 24. However, upside momentum could not be sustained, and the pair has since slipped back below that swing area, with current trade near 1.1771. This failed break raises a red flag for buyers and suggests the market may need to consolidate or correct before attempting another push higher.Near-term bias: sellers lean against broken resistanceWith price back below the 1.1779–1.1788 resistance zone, that area now becomes a clear level for sellers to lean against. As long as EURUSD remains below this band, the near-term bias tilts more cautiously bearish, favoring a pullback rather than immediate continuation higher.Downside levels to watchIf selling pressure builds, traders will look toward:1.1762: last week’s high and initial downside target1.1746: the broken 61.8% retracement, now key support1.1693: the midpoint of the range since mid-September, a deeper corrective targetA move toward these levels would still be considered corrective within the broader uptrend, rather than a trend reversal.Upside scenario: buyers regain controlConversely, a decisive break back above 1.1788 would negate the failed breakout signal and put buyers back firmly in control. In that case, upside targets shift to:1.1818: September 23–24 highs1.1829: July 1 high1.1918: the year’s high, and the next major bullish objectiveTechnical takeawayThe EURUSD remains in a medium-term bullish structure, but the failure to hold above resistance introduces near-term risk. The battle lines are now clearly drawn at 1.1779–1.1788. Above it, buyers reassert control; below it, a corrective pullback remains the more likely path.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving AUDUSD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Key pointsAUDUSD remains range-bound between 0.6400 and 0.6700, with price currently trading near the upper end of the range.Buyers defended key support at 0.6617 and the 0.66247–0.6635 swing area, keeping the short-term bias modestly bullish.Failure to hold above this support zone would signal a failed breakout, likely leading to deeper corrective downside.The AUDUSD continues to trade in a volatile, two-way pattern, reflecting uncertainty and a lack of sustained directional conviction. Since June, the pair has oscillated between support near 0.6400 and resistance near 0.6700, defining a broad consolidation range. The current price near 0.6636 places the pair closer to the upper end of that range, where upside momentum and selling pressure tend to collide.Over the past several weeks, price action has tilted modestly higher, with the pair pressing toward the mid-September highs and the highs for the year. The 2025 peak was set on September 17 just above 0.6700, a level that remains a key upside reference for the market. More recently, last week’s high at 0.66853 reinforced the idea that buyers are attempting to build pressure toward that longer-term resistance.Technically, the recent advance has been constructive. The pair was able to push above the swing area between 0.66247 and 0.6635, as well as clear the 0.6617 level, which marked the October 29 high. During late US trading and into the early Asian session, price pulled back to retest 0.6617, where buyers stepped in, confirming the level as short-term support.Following that bounce, AUDUSD moved back above 0.6635 and extended toward the next swing-area target near 0.66588, where sellers leaned and forced a pullback. The pair has since slipped back into the 0.66247–0.6635 zone, underscoring the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.For buyers to maintain control in the short term, price needs to hold above the 0.66247–0.6635 area, and ideally remain above 0.6617. A sustained hold keeps the upside bias intact and leaves the door open for another push higher. A break back below these levels, however, would point to a failed move above resistance, increasing the risk of a deeper corrective decline within the broader range.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving AUDUSD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

From the Atlanta Fed:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 16, down from 3.6 percent on December 11. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the contributions of consumer spending and inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell slightly to 1.84 and 0.09 percentage points, respectively.We are starting to catch up on economic data but are still essentially flying blind so I don't think this report is useful. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key bullet points for the USDINRIndia’s fundamentals remain a drag on the rupee, with flash PMIs falling to the lowest since February, muted inflation opening the door to further RBI cuts, and US-India trade talks lacking a near-term breakthrough.With USDINR at record highs, Fibonacci extensions are guiding upside targets, with key levels at 87.97 (100%), 89.12 (127.2%), and 90.57 (161.8%), the latter now broken and acting as a pivotal level.Price failed to sustain a break above the topside channel trendline near 90.96, signaling potential for a corrective pullback, but sellers must reclaim 90.5735 to confirm downside momentum.As long as price holds above 90.5735, buyers remain in control, keeping USDINR in open territory with the next major upside target at 92.18 (200% Fibonacci extension).----------------------------------------------------------------------------The US dollar has weakened against most major currencies since last week’s FOMC decision, despite the Fed delivering the expected 25 bp rate cut and signaling a higher bar for additional easing. Markets focused more on Chair Powell’s dovish tone, as he downplayed inflation risks and highlighted labour-market weakness, suggesting a greater tolerance for inflation than for a deterioration in employment. In contrast, the Indian rupee continues to slide to record lows versus the dollar, even amid broad USD weakness, as structural headwinds keep USDINR in a bullish trend. From a risk-management standpoint, the bias remains toward buying dips rather than calling a top. US-India trade talks have been constructive but lack a major breakthrough, with expectations now centered on a deal by April 2026. Meanwhile, India’s flash PMI data fell to the lowest level since February, pointing to softer growth, while muted price pressures leave the door open for further RBI rate cuts, factors that continue to weigh on the rupeeWhy Fibonacci extensions matter hereWith USDINR trading at new all-time highs, there is no historical price action above current levels to reference for upside targets. In these situations, traders often turn to Fibonacci extensions to help project potential resistance and target zones and build a technical roadmap in the direction of the prevailing trend.Key Fibonacci extension targetsUsing the corrective move from February to May as the measured range, the following upside targets were projected:100% extension: 87.972127.2% extension: 89.117161.8% extension: 90.573The 161.8% extension at 90.573 was briefly broken on Friday and then more convincingly breached during yesterday’s trade, confirming continued upside momentum at the time.Current price action and trendline resistancePrice has continued to push higher today, with USDINR trading near 90.9050, up 0.17%, after reaching a session high of 91.0775. That high extended above a topside channel trendline drawn off the April, June, July, and August highs on the daily chart, which currently cuts across near 90.960.However, the break above that channel trendline has not been sustained, with price now trading back below that level. This failure may give buyers some cause for pause and opens the door for a corrective move lower.Risk levels: what confirms sellers or keeps buyers in controlIf sellers are to gain traction, a move back below the broken 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 90.5735 would be a confirming signal, potentially leading to deeper downside correction. That level now acts as a key risk-defining line for the bullish bias.Conversely, failure to move back below 90.5735 would suggest sellers are not winning the battle, keeping buyers firmly in control and price in open territory.Next upside target if momentum resumesIf the upside trend reasserts itself, the next major target comes in at 92.1815, corresponding to the 200% Fibonacci extension from the May corrective low.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving USDCAD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

WTI crude is below the April 9 low of $55.12 as today's rout extends. Oil is down $1.75 on the day at $55.08, which is the worst since April 2021.The market is sensing a growing chance of peace in Ukraine, something that will allow Russian oil to flow more freely. There are also persistent (and well-founded) concerns about oversupply this winter after the series of production hikes from OPEC. The good news is that this is deflationary and will give central banks more leeway to cut rates or keep the low. The bad news is that $55 oil is unsustainable and will lead to decreased investment that will eventually show up in higher prices, creating inflation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest Bank of America fund manager survey is out and it's concerning news if you're long stocks. Sentiment is overly bullish.The survey has been going since 1999 and the allocation to cash at 3.3% is the lowest ever. Take a look at the history here. We are now well below the "sell signal" threshold of 4% and even below the 3.5% danger zone. BofA notes that historically, when cash drops below 3.5%, the MSCI ACWI tends to return -2% over the next month.investors have gone 'all-in' on the rally and are fully bulled up. The broader sentiment indicator—which combines growth expectations, cash levels, and equity allocation—has ripped higher to its strongest level since July 2021.For context, July 2021 was right before the market peaked ahead of the painful 2022 bear market. When the crowd is this unanimous on the "growth" narrative, the market becomes incredibly sensitive to any disappointment.Finally, Allocations to Stocks + Commodities is at the highest levels since early 2022 (another ominous date). In terms of pure equities, the buying allocation at 42% is the highest since December 2024.Some other highlights:Expectations for global growth at the highest since 202138% of managers see an AI bubble as the biggest downside risk for marketsLong Mag-7 remains the most-common allocation69% expect Hassett to be next Fed chair57% say soft landing, 37% no landing & just 3% hard landing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.