The Bank of Japan is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Friday, December 19, a move that is now almost fully priced by markets. With the outcome largely anticipated, investor attention will shift squarely to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference, scheduled for 06:30 GMT (0130 US Eastern time) for guidance on the pace and limits of further policy normalisation.Despite the near-certainty of a hike, expectations are low that Ueda will strike a hawkish tone. Policymakers remain acutely aware of the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields and the sensitivity of domestic financial conditions to higher rates. Even after the expected increase, the BoJ assesses real interest rates as remaining firmly negative, reinforcing the view that policy will stay accommodative in real terms and that tightening will proceed cautiously.Market pricing currently points to another rate hike as early as June or July next year. However, some analysts argue this timeline is too aggressive. A growing view is that October 2026 represents a more realistic window, allowing the BoJ time to assess how higher borrowing costs filter through to corporate financing, bank lending, household consumption and capital expenditure. Spring wage negotiations and the yen’s exchange rate will be particularly important inputs into that assessment.The debate around Japan’s neutral rate has also resurfaced. While recent remarks from Governor Ueda about reassessing neutral policy settings triggered outsized market reactions, policymakers continue to stress that the neutral rate is a conceptual range rather than a precise target. The BoJ is expected to maintain its current estimate of 1–2.5% for the foreseeable future, suggesting no urgency to accelerate tightening beyond gradual steps.From a market perspective, the fully priced nature of this week’s hike reduces the risk of volatility. Unlike the August 2024 move, which triggered sharp yen-funded carry unwinds and ripples across emerging market currencies, this decision is unlikely to generate such dramatic spillovers. With little surprise factor, the yen’s reaction should depend more on forward guidance than the hike itself.Looking further ahead, some strategists have turned more hawkish than consensus, now pencilling in an additional 25bp hike in Q3 2026. With markets leaning toward a later move, this divergence implies potential upside risks for the yen in the second half of 2026 as BoJ and Federal Reserve policy paths increasingly diverge. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Key Technical & Fundamental TakeawaysRecord-Breaking Run: Silver has surged another 4.25% today, hitting a fresh all-time high of $66.88.The Fundamental Driver: A "perfect storm" of falling real rates, structural supply deficits, and booming industrial demand (EVs/Solar) is fueling the rally.The Trend: Silver is now up a staggering 130% year-to-date in 2025.The "Line in the Sand": The bullish trend remains intact as long as price holds above the 100-hour moving average at $63.84.Reversal Risk: A break below the $62.70 trendline would signal a technical shift in favor of the sellers.Unstoppable Momentum: Silver Hits $66.42Silver is continuing its relentless run to the upside, with the price currently trading up roughly 4.25% on the day at $66.42. Earlier in the session, the buying pressure extended the price to a new intraday record of $66.88.This move is not an isolated event; it is the continuation of a powerful trend that has seen the white metal rise 130% in 2025. As the old trading adage goes, "trends are fast, directional, and tend to go farther than traders think." Right now, this is the definition of a runaway trend.The "Why": 4 Pillars Driving the Silver RallyFundamentally, Silver has been moving higher on a rare combination of macro tailwinds and metal-specific tightness. Here is what is powering the move:Monetary Policy & Rates: Easing real interest rates and expectations for looser monetary policy have improved the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals.Hard Asset Demand: Persistent central bank buying and investor demand for "hard assets" have supported the entire complex.Industrial Super-Cycle: Unlike Gold, Silver has massive industrial utility. Demand is soaring due to its critical role in solar panels, electrification, EVs, and advanced electronics.Structural Deficit: Mine supply growth has lagged behind this exploding demand, creating a structural deficit that amplifies price moves when investment flows increase.The Gold Sympathy Play: Gold’s own rally has pulled Silver higher via the gold-silver ratio. Once momentum builds, Silver often outperforms Gold due to its smaller, more volatile market cap.Technical Analysis: When Does the Trend End?All good things eventually come to an end. For this parabolic trend to reverse, we would need to see either a fundamental shift (a reversal of the drivers listed above) or, more immediately, price action that tilts the technical bias to the downside.While markets can remain overbought for long periods, traders must watch specific "risk-defining" levels to know when the tide is turning.The Bearish Trigger: Watch $63.84Looking at the hourly chart, the immediate line in the sand is the rising 100-hour moving average, currently located at $63.84.The Rule: For the bearish bias to increase, the price must break—and stay—below this moving average.Secondary Support: The Trendline TestBelow the 100-hour MA lies a critical upward-sloping trendline that has been tested multiple times. This trendline support currently comes in near $62.70 and is rising.If sellers can push the price below both the $63.84 moving average and the $62.70 trendline, it would mark a significant technical victory for the bears. In that scenario, the focus would shift to the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at $61.72, as the next downside target.Bottom Line: Until those levels are broken, the sellers are not in control, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the price of silver in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The broader stock indices are continuing their tumble with the: S&P index -70 points or -1.03%.NASDAQ index -350 points or -1.52%.Dow industrial average is down -200 points at -0.41%.Russell 2000 is down 1% on the dayShares of Broadcom are continuing their run to the downside since announcing earnings on Thursday of last week. Key Technical TakeawaysMajor Breakdown: Broadcom shares have plunged -4.92% to $324.49, breaking key support levels.Bear Market Confirmed: The stock is now down 21.7% from its pre-earnings peak of $414.61, officially entering correction territory.Moving Average Failure: The price has sliced through the critical 100-day moving average at $340.98, which now turns into resistance.Next Support Target: Sellers are eyeing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $308.98 as the next major downside objective.Selling Pressure Accelerates: Lowest Levels Since SeptemberBroadcom shares continue to come under intense selling pressure, with the stock shedding -$16.80 (-4.92%) today to trade at $324.49.This move marks a significant deterioration in the technical picture, as the price has fallen to its lowest level since the earnings report in September. During that earnings event, the price had gapped higher from $306 per share. Today’s decline has nearly filled that gap, wiping out months of gains.The selling intensity is highlighted by the breach of the October 10 swing low at $324.05, with today's intraday price stretching as low as $321.42.The Trend: From Peak to CorrectionThe reversal has been sharp. Since hitting a peak of $414.61 the day before its last earnings announcement, Broadcom has tumbled 21.7% to current levels.From a technical standpoint, the damage was compounded today when the price ran straight through the 100-day moving average, located at $340.98. A close below this moving average is a bearish signal, suggesting that momentum has firmly shifted to the sellers.What’s Next? The Fibonacci TargetWith the 100-day moving average now in the rearview mirror, traders are looking lower for support.The next major technical floor comes in at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the major move up from the April low ($138.10) to the recent highs. That calculation yields a key support target at $308.98.The Bullish RequirementFor buyers to regain any confidence that a bottom is in place, they have significant work to do. The first step would be reclaiming the broken 100-day moving average at $340.98. Until price can get back—and stay—above that level, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The 200 day moving average comes in at $282.12. There is also near swing low levels from the month of August. TheDespite the sharp decline, the price is still up close to 40% for the year.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Oracle shares are now down close to 50% from its peakKey Technical TakeawaysMassive Correction: Oracle shares have collapsed roughly 48% from the all-time high of $345.72 reached in September.The Catalyst: The sell-off began after the September 9/10 infrastructure deal announcements, which investors now fear carry an unsustainable debt burden.Lowest Level in Months: At $178.79, the stock is trading at its lowest valuation since mid-June.Critical Support: The price is fast approaching the June 11 closing level of $166.64, which serves as the next major downside reference.YTD Context: Despite the crash, the stock remains up 7.4% on the year, highlighting the extreme "overbought" nature of the prior rally.From Boom to Bust: The Debt HangoverOracle shares are undergoing a severe repricing, with the stock currently down approximately 48% from its all-time high.The aggressive sell-off traces back to September 10, the day the stock peaked at $345.72. This peak followed the announcement of major infrastructure deals after the close on September 9. While initially celebrated, the narrative has shifted dramatically. The market is now fixated on the large debt burden required to finance this massive buildout, causing the stock to be on a steep, relentless decline ever since.Technical Breakdown: Approaching June LowsThe selling pressure has pushed Oracle to its lowest levels in six months.Current Price: The stock is currently trading around $178.79.The Danger Zone: This valuation brings the price uncomfortably close to the levels seen on June 11, when the share price closed at $166.64.Traders will be watching this $166.64 level closely. If the $178.79 support fails to hold, that June closing price becomes the primary technical floor.Reality Check: Still Green on the YearPerhaps the most telling statistic of this volatility is the Year-to-Date performance. Even after a nearly 50% haircut from the highs, Oracle shares are still higher on the year by 7.4%.This statistic serves as a stark reminder of how overextended and overbought the stock became during its run-up to the September highs. The current move is not just a reaction to news, but a violent unwinding of a crowded momentum trade. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Key Technical TakeawaysThe Resistance Cluster: USDJPY is currently pinned against a critical resistance zone defined by the 100-hour MA (155.62) and the 4-hour 100-bar MA (155.675).The Foundation: The rally was triggered after buyers successfully defended a major swing support area between 154.33 and 154.472 during yesterday's session and early Asian trading.The Bullish Trigger: A sustained break above 155.675 opens the door for a move toward 156.17 and the November highs.The Downside Risk: Failure to break higher could see price rotate back below the 200-bar MA at 155.277, re-exposing the 154.33 lows.The Battle at Resistance: Converging Moving AveragesAs trading moves deeper into the North American session, the USDJPY pair finds itself locked in a tight technical battle. The price action has been pinned firmly against a wall of short-term resistance.This resistance is technically significant because it represents a convergence of two different timeframes:The 100-hour moving average: Currently located at 155.62.The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart: Currently coming in at 155.675.The intraday high so far has reached 155.63, landing precisely in the "kill zone" between these two moving averages. For the bulls to claim control of the session, they must chew through this supply and establish a foothold above 155.675.How We Got Here: Defending the 154.33 Swing FloorThe impetus for today's upside move didn't just appear out of nowhere; it was built on a solid foundation of support established over the last 24 hours.Both yesterday and during the early hours of today's Asian session, the market tested a key downside swing area between 154.33 and 154.472.Yesterday's Low: Bottomed out at 154.388.Asian Session Low: Buyers stepped in slightly higher at 154.507, just above the swing area.The market's inability to push below this key floor gave buyers the "go-ahead" signal. Recognizing that sellers were exhausted at the lows, bulls seized the momentum to push the price back up to the current resistance levels.What Next? Bullish Breakout ScenariosIf the buyers can finish the job and extend the price above the 100-bar moving averages on both the hourly and 4-hour charts—and crucially, stay above them—the technical bias will shift further to the upside.A confirmed breakout would have traders looking toward the following targets:Target 1: The immediate intermediate level at 156.17.Target 2: A swing area between 156.736 and 156.95.Target 3: The major high from November, which extended all the way up to 157.872.The Bearish Alternative: Watching the 200-Bar MATraders must also respect the possibility of a failure at resistance. If the price cannot clear the 155.675 hurdle, sellers may look to regain control.The key level to watch on the downside is the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently located at 155.277. A fall below this level would negate the short-term bullish momentum and could see sellers return with force. In that scenario, the focus would shift back to the support "floor" established yesterday near the 154.33 – 154.477 area. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury sold $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of WI level at the time of the auction 4.799%Tail -0.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.5 bpsBid to cover 2.67X vs 6 month average of 2.65XDealers 12.57 vs 6 month average of 11.0%Directs 22.24% vs 6 month average of 25.3%Indirects 65.19% vs 6 month average of 63.7%AUCTION GRADE: Given the results compared to the 6-month average, I give the auction an average grade of C. Not good. Not bad. Just average. The 20-year Treasury bond occupies a unique and somewhat awkward position on the US yield curve compared to the "benchmark" 10-year and 30-year issues. It is often referred to by traders as an "orphan" issue.1. The "Orphan" StatusUnlike the 10-year note (the global benchmark for risk-free rates) and the 30-year bond (the primary instrument for long-duration pension hedging), the 20-year bond lacks a natural, dedicated buyer base.10-Year Role: Used by everyone—mortgage lenders, corporate bond pricers, and foreign central banks—as the primary reference point for the US economy.30-Year Role: heavily favored by pension funds and insurance companies who need "long duration" assets to match their long-term liabilities (like payouts due in 30+ years).20-Year Role: It falls in a "no man's land." It is too long for tactical traders who prefer the 10-year, but not "long enough" for pension funds who prefer the convexity and duration of the 30-year.2. The Yield Anomaly (The 20s-30s Inversion)Because of this "orphan" status, the 20-year bond typically trades with a liquidity premium, meaning investors demand a higher yield to hold it because it is harder to sell than a 10-year or 30-year bond.This often results in a "kink" in the yield curve where the 20-year yield is near or even inverted to the 30-year yield.This phenomenon occurs because demand for the 30-year is structurally higher (due to pensions), pushing its price up and its yield down, while the 20-year languishes with less demand, keeping its price lower and yield higher.3. Liquidity and TradingVolume: The 20-year bond sees significantly less trading volume than the 10-year and 30-year issues.Volatility: Due to lower liquidity, the 20-year yield can be more volatile and prone to erratic moves during market stress compared to its neighbors.Overview: The Auction ProcessThe US Department of the Treasury sells bills, notes, and bonds to finance the US government’s debt. These auctions are closely watched by traders (Forex, Equities, and Bond traders alike) because they provide a direct read on the demand for US assets and the direction of interest rates.When the auction results are released, the market immediately compares the actual data against the "Pre-Auction" expectations.Key Metrics for Auctions of US Treasuries.: A Bulleted Review1. The WI Level (When-Issued Yield)The "When-Issued" market is essentially a futures market for the Treasury security that is about to be auctioned. It trades in the days leading up to the auction and right up until the auction deadline.The Benchmark: The WI yield at the exact time of the auction bidding deadline (1:00 PM ET) is the "expected" price.The "Stop" (High Yield): This is the actual highest yield accepted by the Treasury to sell the entire auction amount.The Tail: If the Auction Stop yield is higher than the WI yield, it is called a "Tail." This is bearish (bad demand) because the Treasury had to offer a cheaper price (higher yield) than the market expected to get the deal done.Stop-Through: If the Auction Stop yield is lower than the WI yield, it is a "Stop-Through." This is bullish (strong demand) because buyers were willing to accept a lower yield than expected to secure the paper.2. Bid-to-Cover RatioThis is the primary measure of overall demand depth. It is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount of bids received by the amount of debt being sold.Measurement: A ratio of 2.5 means there was $2.50 of demand for every $1.00 of debt sold.Interpretation: A higher number indicates stronger demand. Traders usually compare today's Bid-to-Cover against the "Six-Month Average" or the previous ten auctions to see if demand is rising or falling.3. Indirect BiddersThese are buyers who place bids through a primary dealer rather than directly with the Treasury.Who they are: This category is heavily dominated by Foreign Central Banks (via the Fed) and international investors.Significance: This is widely viewed as a proxy for Foreign Demand. A strong Indirect number (e.g., 65% or higher) suggests that foreign entities remain confident in the US Dollar and US debt, which is generally supportive of the USD.4. Direct BiddersThese are non-primary dealer institutions that place bids directly with the Treasury.Who they are: Domestic money managers, hedge funds, pension funds, insurers, and occasionally individuals.Significance: This is a proxy for Domestic Demand. If the Direct bid percentage rises, it often signals that US-based investment funds see value in the current yield levels.5. Dealers (Primary Dealers)Primary Dealers are large banks (like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, etc.) that are obligated to bid in Treasury auctions to ensure the debt gets sold.Role: They act as the "backstop." They buy whatever the Indirect and Direct bidders do not.Interpretation: You generally want to see the Dealer award be low.Low Dealer Award (e.g., <15%): Bullish. Real investors bought the debt, leaving the banks with very little "inventory" they have to sell later.High Dealer Award (e.g., >25%): Bearish. Real investors didn't show up, forcing the banks to absorb the supply. This creates "indigestion" because dealers will immediately try to sell that debt into the secondary market, pushing yields up. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

In November, the US Energy Information Administration estimated domestic crude oil production at 13.862 million barrels per day.Not everyone believes it.Today the Dallas Fed released its latest survey of energy executives. It's an anonymous survey so we don't know who said what but this comment turned some heads:There is no way that the U.S oil production data is correctThe thing is, US production keeps on going up as drilling completions and oil prices keep going down. Maybe that's just a lagged effect or a result of longer laterals but there is some skepticism, particularly in the 400k bpd added since April and the Liberation Day drop in crude prices (that was broke this week).It's highly unlikely that the US has fudged oil production numbers but if there was some kind of mistake it would be a gamechanger. For some perspective, the 400k bpd increase alone would be the equivalent of all the oil taken offline in a Venezuela embargo. It would also materially decrease, if not eliminate the oil surplus forecast for 2026.It would also go some way to explain why oil prices have been so resilient this year despite huge OPEC production increases. We touched a five-year low this week but prices have been largely stuck in the $55-60 range for awhile.In any case, changes are coming to the oil market as some of the other comments in the Dallas Fed survey highlight:Decreasing oil prices are making many of our firm’s wells noneconomic.if economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion activities will cease in 2026.Our company now runs one drilling rig, compared to three rigs earlier in 2025. Our projected drilling schedule for the next several years contemplates one drilling rig of activityMy belief is that the administration is coordinating with Saudi Arabia to either talk about or add additional barrels to the market, which could create leverage over Russian negotiations and also suppress oil price inflationary impacts through the upcoming 2026 midterm electionClients are concerned about a potentially large oil glut in first and second quarters of 2026I believe the glut in the global oil market is overstated and, if applicable, temporary. In any event, if the number of wells drilled declines to any significant degree as some commentators suggest, there will not be a glut, and [there] likely [will be] a decline in U.S. oil production given the obvious rate of depletion of existing wells. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Risk appetite continues to deteriorate in the stock market, led by some of the highest-flying tech names. It's likely year-end profit taking but could also reflect some reconsiderations around the AI trader, particularly as Google releases Gemini 3.0 flash and it scores as well as some of the top-line models from others. AUD/USD is always a risk-on/risk-off trade and that's reflected it today's price moves. At times though, it tracks commodities more closely as a global growth proxy. We're not seeing that today as gold, silver and oil are all stronger, along with base metals. Notably though, AUD has had a nice run since late November, climbing to 0.6680 at the highs from 0.6420 on November 20. Zooming out even further, it's been consolidating in the 0.64-0.67 range since May as we search for broader signals on global and domestic growth.On the home front, Australian inflation has proven resilient and that has the RBA no longer talking about hiking rates and the market pricing in H2 rate hikes next year. Should that unfold, it will be a tailwind or the Aussie, particularly if the Fed cuts rates and is persistently dovish with a new Chairman.The drag for AUD could come from China. This week's data on retail sales was weak and housing remains a sore spot. China pledged this year to spur consumer spending and that just hasn't materialized. We could get fresh talk about stimulus in the coming months and that could help but the baseline is increasingly centered on a persistently sluggish consumer. If so, that will dampen demand for Australian exports and be a drag on minerals prices. Tied into that is the US-China trade war. It's at a standstill now and this week, Treasury Sec Bessent said China has been living up to its side of the deal but that can change quickly. The thinking right now is that Trump is more-focused on affordability as poll numbers dip but his knee-jerk to trouble is tariffs and that's going to be hard to shake.Overall, the market should continue to be comfortable in the 0.64-0.67 range. We're retreating from the top end of that now and we will wait for some kind of definitive break. Right now, I'm cautious of equity market selling from now through the first few weeks of the year but that will depend on how the AI trade evolves. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The reversal in Oracle shares this year is one for the history books.The company was an AI high-flyer for much of the year in a March to $250 from $170. Then it had a spike for the ages in September after announcing earnings.If you ever needed a lesson on how quickly the AI narrative can turn against you, look at this chart. We've gone from "Larry Ellison is the King of AI" to "Show me the money" in less than a quarter. That jump to $345 briefly made Larry Ellison the world's richest man. The narrative was perfect. Ellison was pitching Oracle as the backend for the entire AI revolution. The headline number wasn't revenue; it was Remaining Performance Obligations.The backlog exploded to over $455 billion (and later $523bn).The market saw the OpenAI partnership as validation (and the turn against OpenAI lately reverses it)Multi-cloud deals with AWS and Google made Oracle look essential and neutral.Traders didn't care about margins or capex, hey just saw "OpenAI" and "Backlog" and hit the buy button. There was surely a short-squeeze component and an options-driven frenzy as well.What killed the vibe? Two things: a capex rethink and delays.The Earnings Reality Check (Dec 10) The Q2 earnings report last week was the final nail. Revenue missed but the real killer was guidance as Oracle raised its capital expenditure forecast to $50 billion for FY2026. Over the past two months, investors suddenly remembered that borrowing billions to build data centers isn't free money. Much of that came from the bond market as Oracle CDS surged.The narrative further broke on Friday when Bloomberg reported delays in data center delivery for OpenAI, potentially pushing timelines to 2028. The whole bull case was built on speed—that Oracle could build clusters faster than Microsoft. If that advantage goes, so does the valuation.Now with shares down another 5% today and $177, they're barely positive on the year and down almost 50% fro the September high. Let's hope that's not a sign to come for the AI trade in general but you can't help but worry about what happens when the market starts asking about where the profits will come from to go along with the massive spending. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a tough time of year to try and make sense of market moves but I suspect we're seeing profit taking and position squaring into year end. Some of the high-flying power-generation stocks are getting beaten up today and Oracle continues to crater. We also saw Tesla hitting all-time highs this week, which I suspect was at least partially due to short covering.Nvidia, Google and Broadcom are all among the worst performers in the S&P 500 as well.The S&P 500 is down 0.5% while the Nasdaq is down 0.8% in another sign of where the selling is coming from.In terms of the short-covering angle, some of the best performers are Moderna, Service Now and Chipotle, all laggards this year. So overall, I wouldn't try to put any kind of macro or bigger stock market theme into the price action. I do suspect there is some real angst about AI and that could lead to some heavier tech selling at the turn of the year. For now though, this is flows not fundamentals. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key Technical TakeawaysSuccessful Defense: Gold buyers successfully defended the 100-hour moving average yesterday, using the dip as a buying opportunity to reignite the uptrend.Current Momentum: The precious metal is trading up roughly $37 (+0.85%) on the day at $4338.31, with intraday highs reaching $4349.50.Immediate Upside Targets: Bulls are now focused on breaking the highest-ever daily close at $4355.62 and the intraday all-time high of $4381.84.Trendline Resistance: A breakout to new highs brings a daily channel trendline near $4419.64 into focus.The Downside Risk: The bullish bias remains valid as long as the price holds above the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near $4301.Buyers Resurface: The Bounce Off the 100-Hour Moving AverageThe current rally in Gold is a direct result of yesterday’s technical test. After a brief correction lower, the price tested its 100-hour moving average, a level that often acts as a barometer for short-term sentiment.Sellers attempted to push the price below this key technical indicator but failed to gain traction. Instead, willing buyers stepped in against the level, defending the trend. This inability to break lower gave the "go-ahead" signal for bulls to re-enter, driving the price back up. As of today's session, that momentum has extended, pushing Gold to a session high of $4349.50.The Bullish Case: Mapping the Path to New Record HighsWith the 100-hour moving average firmly established as support, the path of least resistance appears to be to the upside. Traders are now watching a specific sequence of resistance levels:Friday’s High ($4353.57): The first hurdle is the swing high from last Friday.Highest Daily Close ($4355.62): Just above that lies the highest closing level on record, achieved on October 20. A close above this level would be a significant bullish signal.Intraday All-Time High ($4381.84): Clearing the closing high exposes the ultimate target—the intraday all-time high.Channel Resistance ($4419.64): If Gold enters "blue sky" territory above the all-time high, the focus shifts to the topside channel trendline visible on the daily chart. This dynamic resistance currently comes in near $4419.64 and is rising each day.The Bearish Scenario: What Would Turn the Tide?Despite the bullish momentum, traders must manage their risk. The 100-hour moving average, now rising to approximately $4301, remains the critical line in the sand.For sellers to claim a victory and shift the short-term bias, they must push the price back down to—and through—this moving average. A sustained break below $4301 would encourage further downside probing, exposing the 200-hour moving average (the green line on the chart), which is currently rising at $4254.19.Conclusion: Buyers Maintain ControlOverall, the technical narrative is clear: Sellers had their opportunity yesterday during the dip to the 100-hour moving average, but they failed to capitalize. By holding that support, buyers have reaffirmed their control. As long as that support holds, the market's eyes remain locked on the all-time high levels ahead. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -1812KGasoline +4808K vs +2062K expDistillates +1712K vs +1178K expThere was a huge draw in the private data released yesterday, so 'expectations' were for something more-bullish than the consensus.Crude -9300KGasoline -4800K Distillates +2500KAs a result, we're getting some selling pressure on oil after the data. This is an unusually large divergence. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key Technical TakeawaysBearish Shift: The AUDUSD is undergoing a downside correction as sellers gain short-term market control.Critical Zone Breached: Price has fallen back below the historically significant 0.66247–0.6635 swing area on the 4-hour chart.Hourly Resistance Stacked: The 100 and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6644 are now acting as a dynamic ceiling for price action.The Line in the Sand: Bears need a sustained break below the 38.2% Fibonacci support cluster at 0.6580–0.6584 to accelerate the downside momentum.The AUDUSD pair is currently facing renewed selling pressure, executing a downside correction that suggests a shift in near-term sentiment. After recent bullish attempts, the technical landscape indicates that sellers are trying to wrestle back control from buyers—at least for the short-term horizon.This shift is evidenced by price action breaking below several key technical hurdles that had previously supported the pair.The 4-Hour Chart View: Breaking Historical Support ZonesA broader look at the 4-hour chart reveals a significant development: the price has slid back below a critical swing area defined between 0.66247 and 0.6635.This is not a new technical level; this swing area has deep historical relevance, going back to mid-July. Throughout the period from July to early October, this zone acted frequently as both a stubborn ceiling and a supportive floor.In the last few weeks, this area was revisited, resulting in messy, chopping up-and-down trading as the market struggled to find a clear direction around it. However, today's decisive move back below this level is significant. It signals that the previous support has failed, tilting the immediate technical bias firmly to the downside.Hourly Chart Analysis: Moving Averages Turn ResistanceDrilling down to the tighter hourly chart timeframe confirms the bearish shift. The price has also dropped below major moving averages, adding confluence to the resistance overhead.Specifically, the price is now trading below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. Currently, these moving averages are clustered just above that aforementioned swing area, near the 0.6644 level.When price falls below these key averages, their role often flips from providing dynamic support to acting as dynamic resistance. The clustering of the historical swing zone (0.6635) and these moving averages (0.6644) creates a formidable barrier for any immediate bullish recovery attempts.Short-Term Trading Scenarios: Defining RiskFor traders looking at this market, the technical breaks provide clear levels against which to define risk.Those looking to lean into this corrective move lower could utilize the swing area ceiling up to 0.6635 as primary resistance. Alternatively, more conservative traders might look to the 100 and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6644 as the ultimate "line in the sand" for a bearish trade setup. As long as the price remains below these levels, the path of least resistance remains down.The Path Ahead: Critical Support TargetsWhile the sellers have won the opening battle of this correction, they still have significant work to do on the downside to truly make the longer-term buyers anxious and fearful.The next major test for the bears is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the significant move up from the November low to the December high. This retracement level currently comes in at 0.6584. Further strengthening this support zone is a previous swing high going back to November 13, located at 0.6580.This 0.6580–0.6584 cluster is critical support. For the bearish bias to increase significantly and for the correction to turn into a broader trend reversal, this level must be broken decisively. Until then, buyers may still view dips as opportunities near major Fibonacci support. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a mix of performances across different sectors, with particular focus on fluctuations within the technology and consumer cyclical spaces.? Technology Sector: The technology sector displays variegated movements. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) faces a significant drop of 2.82%, possibly driven by recent earnings or macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) shows modestly positive results with a 0.10% uptick.? Consumer Cyclical Sector: Strength is evident here, led by Amazon (AMZN) with gains of 0.87%, reflecting solid consumer confidence. Electric vehicle giant Tesla (TSLA) also contributes with a 0.40% increase.? Financial Sector: Financial entities present a positive outlook, as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) climbs 0.91% and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) remains stable with a 0.03% rise.? Healthcare Sector: The healthcare sector shows slight optimism, spotlighted by Eli Lilly (LLY) at a modest 0.13% gain. Conversely, companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dipped by 0.07%, indicating potential investor caution.Market Mood and TrendsToday's market vibe pulsates with mixed emotions as investors weigh tech sector uncertainties against consumer cyclical optimism. Semiconductor firms, like Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 1.51%, seem to struggle under potentially tightening financial conditions or lifecycle changes in product demand.Meanwhile, communication services and consumer electronics maintain neutral to positive ground, with Google (GOOGL) inching up 0.03%.Strategic RecommendationsThe current market tableau advises a cautious yet opportunistic stance. Investors might consider:Diversification: Invest across varied sectors to buffer against volatility, focusing on stable sectors like consumer cyclical and financials.Monitoring Tech Volatility: Keep an eye on technology, specifically semiconductor stocks, for turnaround opportunities or potential further dips.Long-Term Investments in Healthcare: Long-term plays in healthcare might provide stable returns amidst existing uncertainties, given the sector's essential nature.Stay updated with the continuous streams of financial news and insights on InvestingLive.com to optimize your investment strategies further. Keeping a dynamic eye on market developments is key to navigating the ever-evolving landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The machine shown in this picture is probably the most-important one in the world. It's from Dutch company ASML and it's used to fabricate the most-precise computer chips.Last year, the US began restricting their use and export into China. Naturally, that caused some panic in Beijing and the country's resources were marshalled at building a replacement. A report today from Reuters says they have at least partially succeeded. Citing sources, the report says researchers created a working prototype, not just now but in "early 2025" though it's still undergoing testing and hasn't produced a working chip.That sounds a bit dubious but they're extremely complicated machines. China's aim is to produce its own chips by 2028.If that's the case, the US will then lose whatever moat it has in chips. The question is whether the US can be so far ahead in AI at that point that it won't matter.As for the market reaction, shares of ASML dipped on the headlines but it appears as though the market had largely priced in this development already. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key Takeaways100-Hour MA Breach: For the first time since late November, USDCAD buyers have pushed the price above the 100-hour moving average (1.3768), snapping a streak of 5 failed attempts.The Next Major Hurdle: The recovery is facing stiff resistance near the 1.3800 level and the falling 200-hour moving average (1.38055).Neutral Bias: While the immediate bearish grip has loosened, the technical bias is currently neutral as the pair trades between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages.Upside Targets: A break above 1.3805 opens the door toward the 50% midpoint at 1.38394 and the 200-day moving average at 1.38678.Critical Support: If the breakout fails, traders will eye the key support floor between 1.3720 and 1.3726.The Bearish Trend Takes a Pause: Breaking the 100-Hour Moving AverageFor the past several weeks, the USDCAD pair has been locked in a disciplined downtrend, guided strictly by technical indicators. Specifically, the 100-hour moving average has acted as a rigid ceiling. Going back to November 26, the price tested this moving average on 5 separate occasions.In each of those previous instances, willing sellers stepped in to defend the level, keeping the bias firmly to the downside. This relentless selling pressure kept dip buyers on the defensive as the price trended lower and lower.However, the price action today marks a potential shift in character. USDCAD has finally extended above that 100-hour moving average, which currently comes in at 1.3768. The pair stretched to a session high of 1.3795 so far, signaling that the sellers' grip is loosening.Step 1 Complete, Step 2 Awaits: The Battle at 1.3800While the move above the 100-hour MA is a victory for the bulls ("Step 1"), they have not yet won the war. The rally has stalled ahead of the next critical technical cluster: the 1.3800 natural resistance level and the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.38055.For buyers to gain genuine control and force sellers to cover their positions, the price must break—and stay—above this 200-hour moving average. Until that "Step 2" is achieved, the market remains in a state of limbo. The buyers have managed to neutralize the short-term bearish trend, but they haven't yet generated enough momentum to confirm a bullish reversal.Consequently, the current bias is neutral. The pair is trading in the zone between the two moving averages, with the 100-hour MA providing support below and the 200-hour MA providing resistance above.Bullish Scenario: Upside Targets to WatchIf the buyers can muster the strength to break above the 200-hour moving average (1.38055), it would trigger a more significant technical breakout.Target 1: The first upside objective would be the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June low, located at 1.38394.Target 2: Beyond that, the focus would shift to the longer-term 200-day moving average at 1.38678.Bearish Scenario: Protecting the Support FloorTraders must also be wary of a "false breakout." If the price fails to sustain its momentum and rotates back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3768, the short-term bullish case would collapse.In that scenario, sellers would likely retarget the critical support floor established in August and September, located between 1.3720 and 1.3726. This area is proving to be a tough nut to crack; just yesterday, the price dropped within 3 pips of this zone before stalling and bouncing, as buyers leaned heavily against this long-term floor. A return to this level - and below - would put the bears back in the driver's seat and have traders reigniting the trend to the downside.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving USDCAD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair candidates are falling over themselves to explain how inflation really isn't 2.8% y/y, as it was in the most-recent PCE report. They're stripping out rent and portfolio management fees and tariffs to say that inflation is basically on target."Tariffs are not a source of persistent inflation," candidate Chris Waller said today.This is clearly an attempt to make the appropriate dovish talking points to please Trump. Now whether that charade continues after they actually get the job is anyone's guess but time will tell.Of course, the one-off factors swing both ways and that's something they're completely ignoring. WTI crude oil is down 23% year-to-date. That's a big drag on inflation that will continue for a while as lower crude prices filter through.But it won't continue forever. If you're watching oil company budgets this month, they're being trimmed. No one is making money at $55 WTI and that's going to do what low oil prices always do -- cure low prices. Global oil demand continues to rise and the OPEC excess production will be trimmed and oil prices will inevitably rise again.Of course, when crude prices do go up again, the same trio of Fed candidates will be ultra-quick to exclude energy costs in the PCE calculation. That won't be a good look.Ultimately though, the scorecard is what happens on inflation. We've just gone through a period of high prices that were a reminder to everyone of the costs. They were extremely disruptive and led to the topping of virtually every elected Western government; it also eroded faith in money and central banks. Still, it's largely seen as a pandemic one-off. A repeat would be exponentially-more damaging and would risk unmooring inflation expectations for a generation.In addition, there are other bubbles that are being formed by inflation that will take many years to unwind.The Fed is traditionally the thought-leader of global central banks but it's not clear there are enough people left to fight off inflation. We are also dealing with the breakdown of the global trading system and disruption of AI. How that impacts jobs, inflation and the economy is hard to predict but one thing that everyone in the economy should be able to rely on is sound money. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Waller has taken a really bearish turn on the economy. The other Fed candidates are arguing for rate cuts based on productivity but he's arguing for them based on a poor economy.2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hopes that helps job marketInflation is above target but should come down over next few monthsInflation expectations are anchoredFed can go at a moderate pace, doesn't need dramatic actionJob market says Fed should continue to cut ratesFed is 50-100 bps above neutralHart to say tariffs caused job market weaknessInflation is under control and the Fed will keep it under controlDoesn't see much downside risks for tariffsWaller met with Trump this week for the Fed job. This probably isn't what the President wanted to hear.Maybe he will get the job but in all likelihood, Waller will look back on this as an episode that destroyed his reputation and credibility for nothing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD firmer into the NA session, supported by weaker UK inflation and higher US yields, with EURUSD edging lower to 1.1714, holding above 1.1700 and key midpoint support ahead of an ECB decision expected to leave rates unchanged with a data-dependent tone.USDJPY softer at 155.45, trading between the 4-hour 200-bar (155.265) and 100-bar (155.700) MAs, as sellers continue to lean against resistance, while markets price a 25 bp BoJ hike on Friday and focus on forward guidance.GBPUSD the weakest major, down to 1.3335 (-0.63%) after softer-than-expected UK inflation, reinforcing expectations that the BoE could cut rates tomorrow and keeping the bias tilted toward future rate cuts.IN the forex as the NA session begins, the USD is higher helped by weaker inflation data out the UK and higher yields in the US to start the North American session. The EURUSD is edging lower at 1.1714, down -0.26% on the day, holding above the 1.1700 level (the low price came in at 1.1704). And above the midpoint of the move down from the mid September high to the November low at 1.16929. Tomorrow the ECB will announce their interest rate decision, and market expect the ECB to hold rates unchanged, with policymakers likely to emphasize a data-dependent stance. Inflation has eased somewhat but core prices remain sticky, so the ECB is expected to signal that it’s watching incoming data closely before making further moves.The USDJPY is shorter at 155.46, down 0.48% , with buyers pressing the pair back between the 200 and 100 bar moving averages on the 4 hour chart at 155.265 and 155.700. The current price is trading at 155.45 between those levels. Last week toward the 2nd half of the week, sellers leaned in near the 100 bar moving average keeping the bias to the downside. The Bank of Japan on answer interest rate decision on Friday. Markets are expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday, lifting the policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which would mark the highest level in roughly three decades. The expectation is driven by firmer inflation trends, improving wage growth, and stronger business sentiment, all of which have reinforced confidence that Japan can continue its gradual exit from ultra-easy policy. With a hike largely priced in, the market focus will be on the BoJ’s guidance and tone, particularly whether it signals further tightening ahead or emphasizes a cautious, step-by-step approach.Meanwhile, the GBPUSD is the weakest of the three, trading at 1.3335, -0.63% after weaker than expected inflation data. The BOE is now expected to cut the policy rate tomorrow, following softer-than-expected UK inflation data overnight. Given the soft UK employment and inflation data this week, the BoE might not only deliver the rate cut, but also a more dovish tone. The market has been expecting at least one more rate cut in 2026, but traders are now starting to bet on at least two more cuts next year.In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) look at these three major pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risks, and the targets for each as the North American session unfoldsUK: Inflation cooled more than expectedUK inflation data came in softer across the board, reinforcing the narrative that price pressures continue to ease.Headline CPI y/y fell to 3.2%, below 3.5% expected and 3.6% prior, confirming further disinflation.Core CPI y/y eased to 3.2%, missing forecasts of 3.4%, signaling broader-based cooling.RPI y/y dropped to 3.8% vs 4.2% expected, another downside surprise.House price inflation (HPI y/y) slowed to 1.7% vs 2.4% expected, highlighting continued housing-market softness.PPI input prices rose 0.3% m/m, slightly below expectations, while PPI output prices rose 0.1%, matching forecasts.UK takeaway: Inflation undershot expectations, strengthening the case for BoE rate cuts later and it has led to sharp downside pressure in the GBPUSD. The price of the pair is now below both the 100 and 200 day MAs again below 1.3359 and 1.33465 respectively. Eurozone: Data mixed, growth concerns persistEurozone data was less dramatic than the UK release but leaned mildly dovish.German Ifo Business Climate fell to 87.6, below 88.2 expected, signaling ongoing weakness in Germany.Final Eurozone CPI y/y at 2.1%, slightly below forecasts of 2.2%.Final Core CPI y/y held at 2.4%, unchanged and in line with expectations.Eurozone takeaway: Core inflation remains sticky, but close to the 2.0% target. Growth indicators remain soft, keeping the ECB cautious and firmly data-dependent.Overall market viewUK data delivered a clear downside inflation surprise, supportive of a dovish BoE outlook.Eurozone data was mixed, with soft growth offsetting steady core inflation.Relative surprise favored GBP weakness, while EUR reaction was more muted.As North American traders enter the fray for the day, US equity futures are implying a positive open, looking to shake off yesterday’s mixed performance. While US debt yields are ticking higher, the commodity sector is seeing significant strength—led by a sharp rally in Silver—while European markets show a divergent picture.US Stock Futures & Yesterday’s RecapWall Street looks set to open on firmer footing this morning.Dow Jones Industrial Average: Futures are implying a gain of 82 points.S&P 500: Futures are indicating a rise of 18.49 points.NASDAQ: The tech-heavy index continues to show relative strength, with futures up 97 points.This pre-market optimism follows a divergent session yesterday where the Dow fell -302.30 points (-0.62%) and the S&P 500 slipped -16.25 points (-0.24%). The NASDAQ, however, bucked the trend, rising 54.05 points (0.23%), and looks to extend that momentum today.US Treasury Yields Edge HigherSelling pressure in the bond market is pushing yields up across the curve as the session begins:2-Year Yield: Up 3.1 basis points to 3.510%.10-Year Yield: Up 2.9 basis points to 4.178%.30-Year Yield: Up 2.3 basis points to 4.845%.Commodities & Crypto: Silver Outshines GoldThe commodity complex is flashing green this morning, with precious metals and energy finding support. However, cryptocurrencies are lagging.Silver: The standout performer, surging +3.45% to trade at $65.92.Crude Oil (USOIL): Trading firmly higher at $56.22, up +1.92%.Gold: Continues its ascent, trading up +0.36% at $4,317.79.Bitcoin (BTCUSD): In contrast to the metals, Bitcoin is under pressure, down -0.97% trading at $86,994.European Markets: A Mixed PictureEuropean indices are trading with mixed results, with the UK's FTSE 100 significantly outperforming its continental peers.UK FTSE 100 (UKX): Leading the pack with a strong gain of +1.48%.Germany (DEU40): Roughly flat, trading down slightly by -0.06%.France (CAC40): Showing softness, down -0.23%.Italy (FTMIB): Trading in positive territory, up +0.47%.Spain (IBEX35): Also edging higher, up +0.26%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:UK November CPI +3.2% v +3.5% y/y expectedBritish Pound drops across the board as UK inflation surprises to the downsideGBP/USD on the rocks after softer UK inflation data todayUK FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Soft UK CPI boosts the stock market, BoE rate cut betsJapan bond yields continue to surge higher with eyes on the BOJ later this weekBOJ should avoid premature rate hike, says ex-deputy governorEurozone November final CPI +2.1% vs +2.2% y/y prelimGermany December Ifo business climate index 87.6 vs 88.2 expectedAfter falling to a multi-year low, crude oil recovers on Venezuela, Russia sanctions newsJapan visitor arrivals stay strong in November despite China boycottMarkets:USD leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.174%Gold up 0.3% to $4,317.33WTI crude oil up 1.9% to $56.32Bitcoin down 0.9% to $87,040The key risk event of the session came early on in the form of the UK inflation report. The numbers underwhelmed on estimates, reflecting softer price pressures and that led to a drop in sterling as UK stocks rallied.Both the headline and core readings came in below expectations, with the details revealing a modest drop in food prices and core goods prices. The latter likely owes to heavy discounts on Black Friday sales but still, it's enough to be quite a contrast to what we saw in November last year at least.That being said, services inflation remains a sticking point as it continues to rest comfortably above 4%. The trend there is what will matter most for the BOE in the months ahead, so we'll have to wait and see.In any case, market players took to the report in solidifying expectations for a BOE rate cut tomorrow with perhaps quicker intentions for another to follow that up next year.Prior to the UK inflation report, the next full 25 bps rate cut was priced in for July 2026. Now, that is bumped forward to April 2026. But looking out from now to the end of next year, there is ~69 bps of rate cuts priced in and that is not much changed from ~67 bps of rate cuts before the data. As such, that might put a floor on how much the pound might drop in the aftermath to all this.GBP/USD fell from 1.3370 to 1.3311 before recovering a little to 1.3337 currently. The UK FTSE is putting in a solid shift in being up 1.5% on the day for now.Besides that, the dollar was generally firmer in the major currencies space. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.1715 with price action locked in between large option expiries at 1.1700 and 1.1750 on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen higher by 0.5% to 155.50 levels as we see a solid rebound from below 155.00 yesterday.In the equities space, European indices are keeping steadier and not all too much changed besides UK stocks. The DAX is flat while the CAC 40 is down 0.1%, so that's not leaving much to work with. That despite US futures holding slight gains ahead of the open later. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% on the day after a slow start earlier.As for commodities, silver is continuing its hot streak with over 3% gains again today in a push to retest $66 earlier on. We're seeing price keep around $65.85 for now, with the bullish run still sticking in December. Meanwhile, gold is also holding higher with 0.3% gains to $4,317 on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:The RBI decided to intervene after the recent selloff in the Indian RupeeThe US unemployment rate surprised to the upsideUSDINR remains skewed to the upside, buyers will look for key technical breaksUS CPI coming up tomorrowFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:We finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and the data surprised to the downside. In fact, despite the headline number slightly beating expectations, the more important unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% vs 4.4% prior.There were some positives as the permanent job losers rate was a bit lower, but the main takeaway is that the trend remains to the upside and that the unemployment rate was higher than the Fed’s year-end forecast. Fed Chair Powell made it pretty clear in his last press conference that they are more focused on the labour market weakness, and they can tolerate some higher inflation given the transitory expectations. This suggests that we could see another rate cut sooner than expected. The market might start to price that in with more conviction if tomorrow’s US CPI data doesn’t overshoot. INR:The RBI decided to finally intervene again to stop the recent selloff in the Indian Rupee. The last intervention was in October, but as it usually happens when the fundamentals remain against a currency, the INR eventually fell to new lows. We can expect the Rupee to weaken again in the next months, but in the short-term, traders will look for key technical breaks before piling into USDINR longs again. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR sold off right from the upper bound of the rising channel around the 91.00 handle following the RBI’s intervention. The natural target for the sellers should be the lower bound of the channel around the 89.00 level, but they will need to keep the price below the key zones.The buyers, on the other hand, will continue to step in around the key levels to keep targeting new record highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price bounced around the upward trendline as dip-buyers immediately stepped in. The price is now trading right around the key 90.40 level. The sellers will likely step in here with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 89.70 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising above the 90.40 level to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels to target new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to position for a rally into a new record high.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.