Summary:BOK holds base rate at 2.5%, in line with forecastsExports seen staying favourable; semiconductors a key growth tailwindBank flags upside risks to 2026 growth outlookDovish “room for rate cuts” language removed from statementWarns on Seoul housing risks and heightened FX volatility; notes won weakness driversThe Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 2.5%, matching market expectations, while signalling a slightly firmer stance in its policy communication. Alongside the hold, the central bank highlighted that exports should remain favourable and said the policy board will continue to make decisions while supporting a recovery in economic growth.Notably, the Bank of Korea flagged upside risks to this year’s growth forecast, pointing to a strong semiconductor sector as a key tailwind for activity. The emphasis on semiconductors underscores the central role of Korea’s tech cycle in shaping the macro outlook, particularly as global demand for advanced computing and memory products remains a key swing factor for exports and corporate investment.The statement also showed a meaningful shift in tone: the BOK dropped language that had explicitly referenced leaving room for rate cuts, and also removed phrasing about deciding “whether and when” to implement further base-rate cuts. While the bank did not turn overtly hawkish, the removal of easing bias language suggests policymakers are less confident they will need to cut again soon, and are prioritising flexibility as growth prospects improve.Financial stability and currency risks remained central to the message. The BOK said it would closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, and stressed the need to remain cautious about housing-price risks and FX volatility. It specifically noted the won had weakened recently due to yen weakness, heightened geopolitical risks, and continued overseas investment by residents, while warning that risks tied to exchange-rate volatility remain elevated.On inflation, the bank said price pressures are expected to gradually decline toward 2%, reinforcing a view that disinflation is progressing but not yet finished. The overall mix, steady rates, a slightly firmer growth outlook, and a toned-down easing signal, reads as a “hold and watch” stance: supportive of recovery, alert to market volatility, and wary of reigniting housing risks, especially in Seoul and surrounding areas. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 6.9739.PBOC injects 179.3bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:U.S. calls emergency UN Security Council meeting on IranTrump advisers signal preference for swift action if requiredOfficials concede no guarantee of rapid Iran collapseOil prices dip as immediate escalation risk easesGeopolitical risk premium partially unwindsOil prices edged lower as markets weighed fresh geopolitical headlines on Iran that pointed to rising diplomatic activity but offered little immediate clarity on escalation risks. Traders appeared to focus on the absence of concrete military action, trimming some of the risk premium that had built into crude earlier in the week.According to Al Jazeera, the United States has called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the situation in Iran. The move signals heightened diplomatic engagement rather than an imminent unilateral response, at least in the near term, and was read by markets as a stabilising step following days of heightened tension.Separate reporting from NBC News said advisers to President Donald Trump have indicated that while the White House would favour any action against Iran to be swift and decisive, there is no guarantee of a rapid collapse of the Iranian regime. That acknowledgement of uncertainty appeared to temper expectations of a short, contained confrontation.For oil markets, the combination of diplomatic escalation at the United Nations and caution from U.S. officials reduced immediate fears of supply disruption. With no new sanctions, strikes or shipping restrictions announced, crude prices dipped as traders reassessed the likelihood that tensions would translate into near-term losses in Iranian or regional output.That said, the situation remains fluid. Any shift from diplomatic pressure toward military or economic action could quickly reverse the move lower in oil, particularly given Iran’s strategic position in global energy flows and the sensitivity of Middle East supply routes. For now, however, markets appear to be treating the headlines as risk management rather than a trigger for escalation. NBC News: "Trump has told his national security team that he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a swift and decisive blow to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months...But Trump’s advisers have so far not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:RICS sees sales expectations turn significantly more positiveHouse price balance steady, but activity remains weakRate-cut expectations and fiscal clarity lift housing sentimentUK climbs to third in global FDI rankings, McKinsey saysAI and clean energy dominate inflows, manufacturing lagsBritain’s housing market showed tentative signs of stabilisation in December, with surveyors turning more upbeat on the outlook for sales and prices despite ongoing weakness in current activity, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).The RICS survey showed the headline house price balance holding at -14 in December, unchanged from November, though the prior month’s reading was revised slightly higher. While buyer enquiries remained in negative territory for a sixth consecutive month, near-term and 12-month sales expectations improved sharply. Expectations for sales volumes over the next three months rose to their highest level since October 2024, while optimism for the year ahead climbed to the strongest level since late 2024.RICS attributed the improved sentiment to easing uncertainty around UK fiscal policy following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November budget, as well as growing confidence that borrowing costs will fall further as the Bank of England moves closer to interest-rate cuts. New vendor instructions stabilised after months of decline, though surveyors cautioned that low appraisal activity suggests any meaningful increase in housing stock will take time. Conditions in the rental market softened, with tenant demand easing and new landlord instructions remaining deeply negative.In other news, Britain has climbed global rankings as a destination for foreign direct investment, helped by strong inflows linked to artificial intelligence and clean energy, according to consultancy McKinsey & Company.McKinsey said the UK ranked as the world’s third-largest destination for newly announced FDI projects between 2022 and 2025, behind the United States and India, with annual inflation-adjusted inflows averaging around $85 billion. However, the firm warned that investment remains heavily concentrated in large AI and clean-energy projects, with comparatively little flowing into advanced manufacturing such as EV batteries and semiconductors, leaving Britain at risk of missing out on broader industrial investment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Venezuelan oil exports to China set to drop sharply from FebruaryOnly three shipments passed the U.S. blockade since mid-DecemberChina took 75% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2025Large volumes still in transit, easing near-term supply stressChinese teapot refiners likely hardest hitPosting this as an ICYMI. Venezuelan oil exports to China are set to fall sharply from February after a U.S. blockade dramatically reduced the number of tankers able to leave the country, according to traders and analysts cited by Reuters.China, Venezuela’s largest crude buyer, has seen shipments dwindle after Donald Trump imposed a blockade in December on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, part of Washington’s pressure campaign that culminated in a U.S. military incursion and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has since claimed U.S. control over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries founding member and encouraged U.S. firms to invest in its energy sector.Since the blockade began, only three tankers carrying Venezuelan crude and fuel oil have continued toward Asia, with roughly 5 million barrels expected to reach China by late February. That equates to about 166,000 barrels per day, a steep drop from the 642,000 bpd Venezuela exported to China on average in 2025, when China accounted for roughly 75% of the country’s oil exports, according to internal PDVSA documents.The decline follows U.S. seizures of Venezuela-linked vessels, prompting many shipowners to abandon or reverse voyages to avoid confiscation. While around a dozen tankers attempted to depart with transponders switched off in early January, most later returned after Caracas’ interim authorities negotiated a 50-million-barrel oil supply arrangement with Washington.Despite the looming drop, Chinese refiners are not scrambling for replacement barrels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa show 43–52 million barrels of Venezuelan oil still en route to Asia, while China took a record 660,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude in November, leaving inventories well stocked.Looking ahead, the biggest impact is likely to fall on China’s independent “teapot” refiners, which rely heavily on Venezuelan grades such as Merey. Traders say teapots may turn to alternatives like Canadian heavy crude in the second quarter as Venezuelan flows are redirected toward the U.S. or constrained by enforcement risks. ---Oil reserves weren't Trump's only target This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PPI is holding at levels still consistent with further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Rate hikes are not an urgent matter for the BoJ right now though. The BOJ's next quarterly review of growth and inflation forecasts is due at the next policy meeting on January 22-23.Wholesale inflation slowed in the year to December on sliding fuel coststhe index measuring yen-based import prices was unchanged from year-before levels highlighting upward price pressure from the weak yen---Earlier, repeating ICYMI:Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI), officially known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), measures changes over time in the prices that domestic producers receive for the goods they sell. The index is compiled and published by the Bank of Japan, and is designed to capture price movements earlier in the supply chain than consumer-facing inflation gauges.Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices households pay for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses solely on prices charged by companies. As such, it provides insight into cost pressures facing producers rather than consumers. Movements in the index can therefore act as an early signal of inflationary forces building within the economy, particularly if firms attempt to pass rising costs on to end users.The CGPI is constructed using a broad basket of domestically produced goods that reflects the structure of Japan’s industrial economy. This includes raw materials such as metals and chemicals, semi-finished goods, and a range of finished products. Each category is assigned a weight based on its relative importance to overall economic activity, allowing the index to capture shifts across different stages of production.However, the CGPI has several limitations worth noting. It does not adjust for quality improvements over time, which means price increases may sometimes overstate underlying inflation. In addition, the index only covers domestically produced goods and excludes imported items, limiting its usefulness in assessing external price shocks such as exchange-rate moves or global commodity swings.From a market perspective, the CGPI is closely watched for its implications for both consumer inflation and currency dynamics. A firmer-than-expected reading could support the view that pipeline inflation remains alive, potentially lending the yen short-term support. However, given the broader backdrop of expected fiscal stimulus, political uncertainty, and speculation over an early election, any yen strength following the release may struggle to persist once the initial reaction fades. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Two-thirds of Japan firms expect economy to suffer from frayed China tiesNearly half report or anticipate direct business impactRare-earth supply risk flagged as critical vulnerability43% may reassess China-linked business if tensions persistMajority back BOJ’s latest rate hike, citing yen risksMore than two-thirds of Japanese companies expect the domestic economy to suffer from deteriorating ties with China, according to a Reuters corporate survey, highlighting rising concern over geopolitics, supply chains and export exposure. Nearly half of firms said they are already seeing, or expect to see, a direct business impact from tensions with Japan’s largest trading partner.Relations have worsened since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned in November that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an existential threat to Japan, a comment Beijing condemned as “provocative.” Since then, China has advised its citizens against travelling to Japan and imposed restrictions on exports of goods with potential military applications, stoking fears of tighter controls on rare-earth shipments critical to Japan’s automotive and electronics sectors.The survey found that 9% of firms reported their business had already been affected, while a further 35% anticipate some impact. Tourism-linked sectors appear to be among the earliest casualties, with one transport operator citing falling Chinese visitor numbers weighing on hotel utilisation and room revenues. Manufacturers, meanwhile, flagged strategic vulnerability to China’s control over rare-earth processing, with one electronics executive describing policy shifts as a “matter of life and death.”China still accounts for roughly 60% of Japan’s rare-earth imports despite years of diversification efforts. Reflecting this exposure, 43% of respondents said prolonged deterioration in bilateral relations would likely force a reassessment of China-related business, including sales, procurement and production footprints.On monetary policy, sentiment was notably more settled. Almost two-thirds of firms judged the Bank of Japan’s latest interest-rate hike appropriate, backing the move to lift the policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Respondents broadly agreed that failing to normalise policy risks further yen depreciation, which many view as a longer-term drag on the economy. Looking ahead, opinions on the timing of the next hike were split, though most see further tightening as inevitable if growth and inflation track forecasts outlined by Kazuo Ueda. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump says he spoke with Venezuela’s interim president on oil, minerals and securityU.S.–Venezuela partnership framed as stabilisation and recovery effortOil sold off sharply after Trump comments easing Iran execution fearsVenezuela supply expectations added to bearish oil sentimentMarkets focused on reduced geopolitical risk premiumPresident Donald Trump said he held a call with Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez, claiming “tremendous progress” in talks aimed at helping Venezuela stabilise and recover. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said discussions covered oil, critical minerals, trade and national security, describing the emerging U.S.–Venezuela partnership as “spectacular” and predicting a prosperous future for the country.The comments add to a growing flow of U.S. messaging pointing to deeper engagement with Venezuela’s energy sector, following reports earlier this week of Washington exploring mechanisms to channel Venezuelan oil supply back toward global markets under tighter U.S. oversight. Trump framed the dialogue as both an economic and strategic initiative, tying energy cooperation to broader security objectives.Markets, however, reacted less to the Venezuelan angle than to a separate geopolitical signal that hit oil prices sharply lower during Wednesday’s U.S. session. Crude came under heavy selling after Trump said he had been told the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions, a remark that traders interpreted as reducing immediate geopolitical risk premia embedded in oil prices.The combination of easing Iran-related tensions and the prospect, however preliminary, of Venezuelan supply becoming less constrained weighed on sentiment, pushing prices sharply lower from recent highs. While no concrete policy actions were announced alongside Trump’s comments, the tone reinforced expectations that the administration may lean on diplomacy and supply-side solutions to dampen energy prices.For oil markets, the message was clear: headline risk is cutting both ways. Any reduction in Middle East escalation fears, coupled with renewed focus on Venezuelan barrels, increases downside sensitivity in crude, particularly in a market already grappling with ample supply and uneven demand growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Treasury says Bessent flagged undesirability of excessive FX volatility Bessent stressed “sound” monetary policy formulation and communication Messaging aligns with G7 principles on market-determined rates, with room to counter disorderly moves Context: yen weakness linked to political uncertainty and fiscal-stimulus expectations Market read-through: reinforces verbal-intervention framework; actual trend still hinges on rates and policy pathThe U.S. Treasury said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised concerns about “excessive” exchange-rate volatility in a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, stressing that large, disorderly currency swings are undesirable and can undermine economic and financial stability. In the same readout, Treasury said Bessent emphasised the importance of sound monetary policy formulation and clear communication, linking policy credibility to anchoring expectations and limiting destabilising FX moves. The language echoes long-standing G7-style principles, that currencies should be market-determined, but that authorities retain scope to respond to excessive volatility. The timing matters. The yen has been under pressure amid renewed political uncertainty and expectations that Japan’s government could lean into fiscal support, a mix that can widen rate differentials and keep the currency offered, particularly if markets worry policy signals are becoming less predictable. Against that backdrop, a U.S. statement foregrounding “sound” policy and communication reads as a subtle nudge toward stability: keep guidance coherent, avoid surprises, and minimise the risk that investors see Japan’s macro mix as a one-way bet against the yen. For markets, the immediate FX implication is less about an imminent action and more about permission structure. When Washington and Tokyo use shared language around “excess volatility,” it can be read as lowering the political hurdle for Japan to lean harder on verbal warnings, or, at the margins, intervention, if moves become disorderly. Near term, that can provide the yen some support via positioning risk; beyond the initial reaction, sustained yen strength would still likely require either calmer politics, firmer BOJ normalisation expectations, or a shift in global rate differentials. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump signs semiconductor proclamation citing national security concerns 25% tariff imposed on select advanced computing chips (H200, MI325X cited) Exemptions carved out for U.S. tech supply needs and domestic buildout-related imports White House flags broader semiconductor and derivative-product tariffs may follow Sits alongside the week’s critical-minerals security push and reshoring agendaPresident Donald Trump signed a proclamation targeting semiconductor imports on national security grounds, imposing a 25% tariff on a narrow set of advanced computing chips, with the White House naming products such as Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X. The White House framed the move as an early step in a broader effort to secure strategically important technology supply chains and reduce reliance on external choke points for frontier computing. The fact sheet also flagged that broader tariffs on semiconductors and derivative products may follow in the near future, explicitly tying tariff policy to incentives for domestic manufacturing. Two exemptions are doing a lot of work here. The administration said the 25% levy will not apply to chips imported to support the U.S. technology supply chain, and will also not apply where imports are linked to strengthening domestic manufacturing capacity for semiconductor derivatives. In effect, the policy aims to penalise “non-essential” or strategic destination flows while trying to avoid hitting inputs viewed as necessary for U.S. buildout. Why now? This fits with a wider security-and-industrial-policy push that has been gathering pace, including the critical-minerals supply emphasis we discussed earlier in the week. Semiconductors and critical minerals are increasingly being treated as two sides of the same resilience agenda: minerals secure the upstream, chips secure the downstream. For markets, the immediate read-through is renewed policy uncertainty around chip trade flows and pricing power at the high end of AI compute. The exemptions soften the broadest “cost shock” fears, but the White House’s reference to potential wider tariffs keeps headline risk elevated, particularly for firms and countries embedded in cross-border chip assembly and re-export chains. ---I've added this as an explainer. Is it helpful? Let me know in the comments please. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate deals to reduce reliance on imported processed critical mineralsWhite House flags foreign mineral processing as a national security vulnerabilitySection 232 authority invoked to monitor and potentially restrict importsBuilds on earlier Bessent-led talks on securing mineral supply chainsSignals tougher, security-driven U.S. trade posture ahead of electionsPresident Donald Trump has ordered the Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to begin negotiating agreements with foreign suppliers aimed at reducing America’s reliance on imported processed critical minerals, citing rising national security risks tied to global supply chains.In a statement from the White House, the administration warned that U.S. dependence on overseas processing of rare earths, lithium, cobalt and other strategically important minerals represents a growing vulnerability for the defence, energy and advanced technology sectors. While the United States possesses significant raw mineral resources, officials argue that the concentration of processing capacity abroad, particularly in geopolitically sensitive jurisdictions, leaves critical industries exposed to supply disruptions and coercive trade practices.Trump invoked his authority under Section 232 of U.S. trade law, granting the administration powers to monitor, restrict or adjust imports deemed harmful to national security. The move allows the White House to override or amend previous trade decisions if necessary, with a stated aim of strengthening domestic supply chains and safeguarding military readiness.The announcement follows meetings earlier this week involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, where critical mineral supply security was flagged as a priority issue. Those discussions underscored Washington’s concern that clean energy investment, defence production and next-generation technologies are increasingly constrained by mineral processing bottlenecks outside U.S. control.While officials framed the directive as a long-term industrial strategy rather than an immediate trade action, the use of Section 232 signals a willingness to escalate policy tools if negotiations fail. It also reinforces the administration’s broader shift toward economic nationalism, linking trade, security and industrial policy more explicitly as the U.S. heads into an election year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI), officially known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), measures changes over time in the prices that domestic producers receive for the goods they sell. The index is compiled and published by the Bank of Japan, and is designed to capture price movements earlier in the supply chain than consumer-facing inflation gauges.Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices households pay for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses solely on prices charged by companies. As such, it provides insight into cost pressures facing producers rather than consumers. Movements in the index can therefore act as an early signal of inflationary forces building within the economy, particularly if firms attempt to pass rising costs on to end users.The CGPI is constructed using a broad basket of domestically produced goods that reflects the structure of Japan’s industrial economy. This includes raw materials such as metals and chemicals, semi-finished goods, and a range of finished products. Each category is assigned a weight based on its relative importance to overall economic activity, allowing the index to capture shifts across different stages of production.However, the CGPI has several limitations worth noting. It does not adjust for quality improvements over time, which means price increases may sometimes overstate underlying inflation. In addition, the index only covers domestically produced goods and excludes imported items, limiting its usefulness in assessing external price shocks such as exchange-rate moves or global commodity swings.From a market perspective, the CGPI is closely watched for its implications for both consumer inflation and currency dynamics. A firmer-than-expected reading could support the view that pipeline inflation remains alive, potentially lending the yen short-term support. However, given the broader backdrop of expected fiscal stimulus, political uncertainty, and speculation over an early election, any yen strength following the release may struggle to persist once the initial reaction fades.This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT, subtract 5 hours for the US Eastern time The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US November retail sales +0.6% vs +0.4% expectedUS November PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expectedUS Supreme Court doesn't issue decision on tariffsBeige Book: Overall activity increased at slight-to-modest pace in most districtsFedspeak recap: Odds of a January or March rate cut dwindleEIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3391K vs -1702K expectedUS Oct business inventories +0.3% vs +0.2% expectedUS existing home sales 4.35m vs 4.21m expectedUS Q3 current account -226B vs -238B expectedTrump appears to have decided on a military strike against Iran - ReutersMarkets:Gold and silver hit fresh recordsWTI crude oil down $1.15 to $60.06US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 4.14%Bitcoin up 3.8%S&P 500 down 0.7%JPY leads, USD lagsEyes were on the Supreme Court today but we didn't get a tariff decision. There was some trepidation in markets ahead of time with stocks sliding but when no ruling was issued, there was a sizeable pop in stocks. Unfortunately, it slowly faded over the day and the S&P 500 was down more than 1% at the lows, with megacap tech names and financials dragging.Gold and silver were in the spotlight once again with Iran and potential US attacks as a possible catalyst. Beyond that, gold did a nice turnabout to highs after some selling midway through yesterday's US session. That was halted in Asia and there was a steady march higher today and a 7% further pop in silver to $93 for the first time ever.The FX market was less action-packed as the US dollar mostly slid. The headline on the retail sales report was a touch better but revisions were lower and the core components a drag. Auto sales flattered the headline while better measures of consumer comfort were less-enthusiastic. Comments from financials on the US consumer and lending outlook were positive but that didn't stop a round of profit taking, including a 4% fall in Bank of America shares. The earnings continue on Thursday.Oil was hit with a huge build in US gasoline inventories for the second week but with turmoil potentially coming in Iran, the crowded short in crude were getting out of the way in a squeeze as high as $62.36. However later in the day, Trump said that executions had stopped and there was a report that a high-profile one had been postponed. That was seen as de-escalatio and oil quickly fell more than $2/barrel. That's the spot to watch in the day ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It has been a deluge of Fedspeak today but it hasn't provided much clarity. The market is pricing in just at 9% chance of a cut at the Jan 28 meeting as we head towards the blackout. For March it's at 26% and for April it's at 60%. , But if you’re looking for a unified front from the central bank, you won't find it today. We’ve heard from Kashkari, Bostic, Paulson, and Miran in rapid succession, and the signals on the rate path for 2026 are clashing but clearer if you look closely.Neel Kashkari is leading the charge for patience. In an interview with the NYT and comments on the wires, he was explicit: it is "way too soon" to cut rates. He argues that interest rates should be held steady this month, citing an economy that is "confusing" but overall quite resilient. While he admits inflation is heading down, he remains wary of cutting too early given elevated price levels. He also took time to defend the independence of the central bank and Chair Powell.Raphael Bostic is in Kashkari's corner as he approaches his February 28 retirement. He noted that the inflation challenge "has not been won yet" and that the economy is likely to get stronger as we go through 2026. His takeaway is that a "passive posture" isn't appropriate right now; policy still needs to be restrictive.On the other side, we have Paulson and Miran striking a decidedly softer tone. Paulson describes the baseline economic outlook as "pretty benign" and explicitly sees further rate cuts later this year if forecasts are met. She characterizes current monetary policy as only "a little restrictive." Meanwhile, Miran did his usual song and dovish dance. This time he argued that deregulation acts as a positive productivity shock that should put downward pressure on prices—another reason, in his view, to cut rates. His term is over at the end of the month but will stay on the board until a successor is confirmed.Here are the key headlines:KASHKARI: WAY TOO SOON TO CUT RATESPAULSON: SEES FURTHER RATE CUTS LATER THIS YEAR IF FORECAST METBOSTIC: THE INFLATION CHALLENGE HAS NOT BEEN WON YETKASHKARI: INTEREST RATES SHOULD BE HELD STEADY THIS MONTHMIRAN: DEREGULATION SHOULD PUT DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES, JUSTIFYING RATE CUTSPAULSON: BASELINE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS ‘PRETTY BENIGN’KASHKARI: IF MONETARY POLICY IS REALLY SO TIGHT, WE SHOULD NOT SEE AN ECONOMY EXHIBITING SUCH RESILIENCEBOSTIC: AS WE GO THROUGH 2026 THE ECONOMY IS LIKELY TO GET STRONGERPAULSON: INFLATION SHOULD BE AROUND 2% RUN RATE BY YEAR ENDKASHKARI: TARIFFS HAVEN'T BEEN THE GUT PUNCH MANY FEARED This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -3832KGasoline +8977K vs +3565K expDistillates -29K vs +512K expThat's a mammoth gasoline build on top of another huge one last week. It will be tough to keep oil prices up with that much product in the system.Private oil inventories released late yesterday:Crude +5270KGasoline +8230KDistillates +4340KGiven the private survey, the big build in the official numbers isn't a huge surprise .That said, earlier oil gains have faded with WTI at $61.69 from a high of $62.10.The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report is widely considered the definitive gauge of US crude oil and refined product inventories. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET, the data provides a comprehensive overview of the current supply and demand dynamics within the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.While the American Petroleum Institute (API) releases private inventory data the evening prior, the EIA report is the official government record and typically commands greater market attention. Traders and analysts closely monitor the headline crude oil inventory changes—categorized as "builds" (increases) or "draws" (decreases)—to assess market balance.However, a holistic view requires looking beyond the headline crude number. Market participants scrutinize stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub (the delivery point for WTI futures) as well as refined product inventories, specifically gasoline and distillates. These metrics offer critical insights into consumer demand and refinery utilization rates.Given its scope, the release often triggers immediate price volatility in energy markets. It serves as a key fundamental input for assessing whether the market is oversupplied or tightening, influencing price direction for WTI and Brent crude benchmarks.Following the EIA report, the market will look to OPEC and the US administration for hints about upcoming energy policy. Venezuela remains in focus as Trump tries to boost production quickly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was potentially due today but four other decisions were rendered, and no word on tariffs. No other decision days have been announced for this week.The IEEPA is a 1977 law that gives the President broad powers to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency. Historically, it’s been the "sanctions button"—used to freeze assets of terrorists or rogue states. But the Trump administration dusted it off to impose sweeping tariffs, effectively using it as a trade weapon.The legal battle (specifically cases like Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) boils down to one critical question: Does the power to "regulate" imports include the power to tax them?Importers argue that "regulating" isn't "taxing." They say if Congress wanted the President to levy tariffs unilaterally, they would have said so. The government argues the statute is broad enough to cover it.Why this matters for marketsIf the Supreme Court rules against the government, the implications are staggering.We are talking about potential refunds on tariffs collected under IEEPA. Estimates put this north of $150 billion. If importers (think big retail, tech, autos) get that cash back, it’s a massive injection of liquidity into corporate balance sheets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US stock market witnessed a notable downturn today, largely driven by declines in major technology stocks, while the financial sector exhibited pockets of resilience. The overall mood hints at caution among investors amidst evolving market conditions.? Technology Sector: A Substantial PullbackSemiconductors: Chipmakers faced significant pressure. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped by 1.05%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw a sharper decline of 1.90%. Broadcom (AVGO) also fell by 1.36%, highlighting the sector's vulnerability.Software and Infrastructure: Microsoft (MSFT) slipped by 0.75%, fueled largely by concerns over software demand stability. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) decreased by 0.71%.Consumer Electronics: Apple (AAPL) fell by 0.55%, indicating possible market jitters surrounding consumer spending patterns and supply chain constraints.Internet and Communication: Google (GOOG) receded by 0.47%, while Meta Platforms (META) shed 0.83%, contributing to the broader negative sentiment in the tech domain.? Financial Sector: Bracing Against HeadwindsBanks: Despite overall market dips, financial stocks had a mixed performance, with Bank of America (BAC) decreasing steeply by 3.35%. However, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) showed minor resilience, only down 0.26%.Credit Services: Visa (V) posted a satisfactory gain of 0.31%, reflecting steady consumer spending patterns.Asset Management: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) increased by 0.21%, helping offset some financial sector losses.? Strategic RecommendationsThe market’s current trajectory, characterized by a tech retreat and resilience in financials, suggests vigilance for investors. Here are some actionable strategies:Diversify Portfolios: Consider redirecting investments towards sectors displaying resilience, such as financials and healthcare, to mitigate risks associated with tech volatility.Monitor Tech News: Stay updated with developments in the semiconductor and software industries to anticipate further price movements and adjust holdings accordingly.Focus on Stability: Securities like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) can offer stability amidst market turbulence, making them a wise consideration.Overall, today's market snapshot underscores the importance of strategic flexibility and informed decision-making. The tech sector's pullback contrasts against financial resilience, framing a complex landscape for traders and investors. Stay tuned to InvestingLive.com for continuous updates and expert analysis, ensuring your investment decisions are data-driven and timely. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Eyes will be on the US Supreme Court at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) as it delivers another decision.We don't know whether today's decision will be on tariffs or something else. The Supreme Court doesn't schedule its decisions, it only announces that a decision on one of the cases before it will be delivered today. We went through the same thing on Friday and tariff anticipation built up but the ultimate decision was on criminal law.Betting sites saw a surge in the odds that tariffs will be struck down after oral arguments in November. A majority of Justices sounded skeptical that Congressional powers of taxation were being respected, or that the rule of law was being followed. If they're struck down, the reasoning and remedy will be critical.If the reasoning leans towards it being a 'major questions' problem, the other tariff remedies could also be under threat. If it's more technical, then it clears the way for Trump to use other tariff powers to reconstitute tariffs, something that administration officials have pledged.I looked at how the administration could pivot and use different tariff powers here.The remedy is also a thorny issue. If the Supreme Court rules that tariffs must be refunded, then it would be a windfall for importers and a big hit to the US government's finances. it's nowhere near the 'trillions' that Trump often touts but the refunds would amount to around $130-$150 billion.Last week, I wrote about the stocks that could be winners and losers on the tariff decision. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq Futures Analysis Today: Calm Long-Term Structure, Tactical Pressure Short TermA comment on trading social media earlier today said the Nasdaq “looks startled.”That single sentence was enough to trigger a full orderFlow Intel review across the long-term, medium-term, and short-term structure of Nasdaq futures.The conclusion is nuanced, but important:there is no panic, no structural breakdown, and no evidence of long-term fear.At the same time, there is short- and medium-term pressure that traders should respect.To make this useful for both professionals and less experienced readers, let’s break it down and then map out specific price levels that matter and why.Long-Term View: No Panic, No Structural DamageFrom a long-term perspective, the Nasdaq remains structurally stable.Value has migrated higher over time, and price remains well above the major November lows. This is not the behavior of a market under stress or one experiencing forced selling. Long-term participants are still engaged, and there are no signs of liquidation or fear-driven exits.This matters because short-term volatility often feels dramatic, but long-term structure tells us whether something is actually breaking. Right now, it is not.I'm also looking at this simple daily chart at NDX (The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization), seperately from Nasdaq futures. And I think you should also be watching the Nasdaq Index today, to see how it possibly reacts to that red resistance line and the 26,000 psychological round number, perhaps later this week.Medium-Term View: Discomfort, Not CollapseThe medium-term picture is where the tension shows up.Recent price action has occurred below key reference levels, and value has shifted lower over recent sessions. That puts sellers in control for now on this timeframe, even though the long-term structure remains intact.This is where confusion often arises. Many readers ask:“So… is the market bullish or bearish?”The answer is that different timeframes can say different things at the same time, and that is normal.Long term: stable and constructiveMedium term: under pressure, rotating lowerShort term: stabilizing, but not resolvedUnderstanding that distinction is what prevents overreaction.Short-Term View: Stabilization Near Important SupportOn the short-term view, buyers have stepped in to slow the decline and stabilize price, particularly near levels that have repeatedly attracted interest over the past several days.This does not yet mean the market has turned bullish, but it does mean downside momentum is being absorbed rather than accelerating.The Navigational Map for Nasdaq Futures Today: Key Levels That MatterThis is where the analysis becomes actionable.These are not random numbers. They are prices that define value boundaries, areas where professional and algorithmic participants reassess risk and exposure.1. 25,862 – Yesterday’s Value Area Low (Short-Term Ceiling)This level is important because it marks the lower boundary of yesterday’s accepted value.Even if price rebounds toward today’s VWAP near 25,825, this level remains a ceilingIf price can produce two 30-minute closes above 25,862, it signals re-entry into yesterday’s value areaThat would strongly suggest that today’s dip is being repaired rather than extendedFor less technical readers, think of this as a gate. If price re-enters yesterday’s “room,” conditions improve meaningfully.2. 25,659 – Major Support ClusterThis is one of the most important levels on the chart.It aligns with:Multiple session lows over the past three and a half daysA long-standing volume profile reference from well before January 8A clear clustering of historical interestAs long as buyers are not panicking, this level has a high probability of being defended. Losing it decisively would change the medium-term narrative.3. 25,550 – Deeper Support, Line in the SandThis level appears repeatedly in the 30-minute structure and sits below the recent range.If price reaches this area, buyers should be expected to defend itA failure here would indicate that bearish pressure is no longer just rotationalUntil that happens, it remains a worst-case support scenario, not a base case4. 25,878 – January 12 VWAP (Upside Test)If price reclaims today’s VWAP and then pushes above 25,878, it would signal improving acceptance on the upside.That would weaken the current medium-term bearish rotation and reopen higher targets.5. 26,000 – Psychological and Structural MagnetRound numbers matter because they concentrate liquidity and decision-making.A sustained move toward 26,000 would suggest renewed upside ambitionAcceptance above it would reopen the discussion around new all-time highsFailure near it would likely attract sellers againWhy These Levels Are Not “Just Lines on a Chart”Some readers understandably say:“If price is above X, it’s bullish. Below X, it’s bearish. What’s new?”The difference here is context.These levels are not arbitrary. They define value territories.When price crosses them and stays there, it is not just moving higher or lower. It is entering a new area where more upside or downside becomes statistically more likely, because that is how professional participants and algorithms interpret value transitions.Crossing a gate opens a new room.Bottom Line for Nasdaq Traders and InvestorsThere is no long-term panic in the NasdaqMedium-term pressure exists and should be respectedShort-term stabilization is occurring near important supportKey levels, not headlines, will determine what comes nextThis is a market that rewards patience and structure, not emotional reactions.As always, this analysis is a decision-support tool, not financial advice. Markets evolve, and so should positioning.—Analysis by Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.