Yesterday's relief rally in software stocks was quickly crushed and today the war lows were promptly taken out. The IGV software ETF is down 4.6% on the day.While the war was going on, Anthropic released more details on Claude and just yesterday, Meta released a solid model that highlights that scaling laws still apply.It's also tax time and one stock that's getting hit particularly hard today is Intuit, which is down 8.4%. Americans are increasingly flirting with using Claude and other models to fill out their tax forms and finding success. That's a big threat to Intuit and to accountants in general.Shares of INTU have been nearly cut in half since July.Service Now is another big loser today, down nearly 8% and at a fresh 52-week low along with Adobe.For these stocks, valuations don't really matter at the moment as the market prices in future disruption and the possibility that tools that currently cost $20/month will destroy their business models. The big event this year in stock markets is going to be the IPO of OpenAI and Anthropic. Once those are public companies, they will face even more pressure to disrupt incumbents with moves that would justify higher subscription costs.For the software names, they will continue to emphasize their moats and proprietary data but it's going to be hard to maintain previous multiples as it's increasingly difficult to see how they will grow their businesses in the future or maintain the multiples they have now. The broader macro of this is also concerning as companies and their workers get replaced with computer chips and data centers. That kind of disruption will loosen the labor market and could create political turmoil.That said, no one is going to feel sorry for Intuit. Investigations (notably by ProPublica) found Intuit spent years lobbying to stop the IRS from offering its own free, simple filing system. More recently, Intuit and peers have spent millions lobbying against the IRS “Direct File” program and found a receptive audience in Trump, whose administration said it would kill the free option. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are some real questions about the health of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with some suggesting he's in a coma but a statement was read on Iran State TV that was attributed to him.Regarding the region, the statement says Iran is still awaiting an appropriate reaction from southern neighbors so that Iran can "show you our brotherhood."It certainly sounds like they're laying the groundwork for peace.More:Iran will seek retribution for attacks on itWill take management of Strait of Hormuz into new phaseIran is resolute in taking revenge of its late Supreme Leader and martyrsIran is the definite victorPeople should not leave the streets despite 'negotiations with the enemy' Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “in full health” and remains in control of all state affairs.A separate report cites a Hezbollah lawmaker who said the Lebanese government should demand a ceasefire before any further steps. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump in a phone interview with NBC says:He is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach. Iranian leaders speak differently when in a meeting than they do to the pressThey are much more reasonableThey are agreeing to all things that they have to agree to. Remember they been conquered. They have no military.Says Israel is scaling back operations in Lebanon Spoke with Bibi and he is going low key. Lebanon official told CNN there be no negotiations under fire in response to Israel's plan to offer to start direct negotiations with an aimed at ending hostilities.Israel said that they will scale back operations in Lebanon in the coming days due to American pressure.Will Iran accept, Israel's offer to go "low key" for now? Will Hezbollah continue to prod Israel? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

High yield 4.876%Level at the time of the auction 4.871% Tail 0.5 basis point versus auction average of -0.3 basis pointsBid to cover 2.39X versus auction average of 2.42XDirects 24.23% versus auction average of 24.0%Indirects 64.14% versus auction average of 66.0%Dealers 11.62% versus 6 auction average of 9.9%AUCTION GRADE: D+I was tempted to give a C- but tipped the grade to a D+. The only better than average component was the Direct bidders , but that was just barely higher. Foreign demand was less than average at 64.14%. The tail was higher at 0.5 basis points. The bid to cover was just less than average.All three auctions this week were "meh". This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iran Pres. Pezeshkian is on the wires saying: Cease-fire reflects imposing the will of the Iranian nation on the enemyIran “is not at war with any nation”Actions described as a response to aggression, not escalation Cease-fire approved unanimously by key pillars of the regime Decision made with guidance and approval from top leadershipBased on “honor, wisdom, and expediency”Emphasizes control, legitimacy, and national strengthSummary: Iran is positioning the cease-fire as a calculated and unified strategic win—not a concession. The leadership is reinforcing that its actions were defensive, coordinated at the highest levels, and grounded in long-term national interests, signaling strength while avoiding broader conflict.Meanwhile, and interview with Fars from an informed source stated that Tehran rules at the option of negotiating with Washington until a complete cease-fire is established in Lebanon, and has strongly asserted this position. One of the operational options on the table is to keep the Strait of Hormuz closedThe Strait of Hormuz is providing Iran with the leverage. Trump on Easter Sunday said that the Strait need to be opened or else the civilization would disappear (in his unique way). . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Today’s USD 22bln 30-year bond auction will be watched closely after the prior sale stopped at a high yield of 4.871%, which was above the six-auction average of 4.745%. The last auction showed a tail of -0.7bps, better than the -0.3bps six-auction average, while the bid-to-cover came in at 2.45x, a touch above the 2.42x average, pointing to solid overall demand.Looking at the breakdown, dealers took 9.4% versus the 9.9% average, suggesting they were left with slightly less than normal. Direct bidders were awarded 27.2%, above the 24.0% average, while indirect bidders took 63.4%, below the 66.0% average. That mix suggests domestic demand was a bit firmer, while foreign participation was a touch softer than usual.The 3 and 10 year auctions on Tuesday and Wednesday was met with modest to average demand. Will buyers show up for the longest maturity?Auction historyHigh Yield: Six-auction avg. 4.745%Tail: Six-auction avg. -0.3bpsBid-to-Cover: Six-auction avg. 2.42xDealers: Six-auction avg. 9.9%Directs: Six-auction avg. 24.0%Indirects: Six-auction avg. 66.0%As we head into the auction, the US yields are lower on the day with the two-year down 3 point basis points or 3.756%. The 10 year is down -2.5 basis points at 4.267%, and the 30 year is down 1.3 basis points at 4.873%. Looking at the US equities, the Dow industrial average is up 0.57%, the S&P is up 0.51% and the NASDAQ index is up 0.61%.Crude oil is trading up $3 and $97.37. Gold is up $71 at 4007 or $90 and silver is up near $2 and $76.10. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Comments from an unnamed senior Lebanon official:Lebanon is advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for talks with IsraelAny talks would be on a separate track but use the same model as US-Iran truceNo date or location set yetLebanon needs US as guarantor of any deal with IsraelMeanwhile, an Axios reporter says that talks will begin next week.This was seen as the first big hurdle to get Hormuz back open and it looks like it's headed in the right direction. In response, US stocks and gold prices rose while oil prices have given back gains.More headlines:First meeting will take place at the State Dept in WashingtonIran's foreign min says conducting talks to end the war is contingent on the US adhering to its ceasefire commitments on all fronts, including LebanonWTI crude oil has trimmed the gain to $3.15 and $97.71 after rising as high as $102.71. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is pushing to new session highs, with the move supported by softer oil prices and a modest easing in geopolitical tensions. Headlines out of the Middle East have helped sentiment, after Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a shift toward diplomacy—directing his cabinet to focus on Hezbollah disarmament and potential normalization talks with Lebanon. This follows a conversation with Donald Trump, who urged restraint in military activity as cease-fire and broader negotiations with Iran continue.From a technical perspective, the pair has reclaimed a key cluster of levels. Price is now back above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1667, 200-day moving average at 1.16718, and the 100-day moving average at 1.16862. Earlier in the US session, the initial break above this zone failed, with price rotating back toward the 200-day MA. However, renewed momentum—driven in part by the shifting geopolitical tone—has pushed the pair back above the cluster.That area now becomes the risk-defining level. If buyers are to maintain control, the price needs to stay above this confluence of support. Holding above keeps the bullish bias intact; falling back below would tilt the balance back toward the sellers.On the topside, the next target comes in between 1.17265 and 1.17414. A break above that zone would open the door toward the next swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is a nice pop in risk assets after Netanyahu posted a statement that Israel will open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peace.Here it is (translated):In light of the repeated requests from Lebanon to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon at the earliest possible time.The negotiations will focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah from its weapons and the regulation of peace relations between Israel and Lebanon.Israel appreciates the call today by the Prime Minister of Lebanon to demilitarize Beirut.It seems there is still some negotiating to do but it's not exactly easy to 'demilitarize' Beirut without causing a civil war. There is major international pressure on Israel to stop strikes on Lebanon as part of a ceasefire and reopening the Strait.The report says Netanyahu's approval of negotiations with Lebanon came after phone calls with Trump and Witkoff.To me, the most important thing remains that Trump wants an end to hostilities with Iran and he wants the Strait reopened. There are going to be some tough negotiations around that and Iran has a fairly strong hand to play in order to get sanctions removed, funds released and even some tolls in Hormuz. It looks like they'll have to give up uranium or leave it deep underground but they've shown the ability to shut down Hormuz and that's likely to be a strong disincentive against future attacks.What's less clear is what direction the new leaders in Iran will take the country and what role China might play in that.Update as Axios cites a senior official who says "There is no ceasefire. The negotiations will begin in the coming days.". The message seems to be that attacks will continue during negotiations. At the same time, it appears that Iran is going to be allowed to severely limit Hormuz during negotiations.The S&P 500 is at a session high, up 23 to 6805. Oil has also given back some gains and Treasury yields are back to flat.This is a great sign for broader peace. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is pushing higher, supported by a modest rebound in yields. The 10-year yield is up about 2 basis points—nothing dramatic, but a shift from earlier declines that is helping underpin the pair.From a technical perspective, yesterday’s sharp move lower tested a key swing area between 158.01 and 158.26. Sellers briefly pushed the price below that zone to a low of 157.88, but momentum could not be sustained. That failure to hold below support gave buyers a foothold, and the pair began to rebuild to the upside.That upside momentum has carried into today’s session, with price extending toward the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 159.23. The high reached 159.28—just above that cluster—before rotating back down toward 159.17.This convergence of moving averages is a classic battleground. When key MAs come together, they tend to define and limit risk, attracting both buyers and sellers. In this case, the market is approaching from below, and notably, these same levels previously acted as support before being broken. That shift in structure suggests the zone may now serve as resistance, at least on the first test.More broadly, USDJPY remains stuck within its well-defined range. Since March 11, most of the price action has been contained between 158 on the downside and 160 on the topside. While there have been brief excursions beyond those boundaries, the market continues to gravitate back into this range—keeping traders focused on those levels as the key barometers for directional bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I take this as good news that the two issues are being linked by the US. We may be seeing some kind of final flurry of strikes before the Strait is opened and Israel and Lebanon have a ceasefire as well. The market is also taking this as good news as the S&P 500 ticks into positive territory.For me, the strongest signal here continues to be that Trump wants this war to end. Does he want it to end enough to twist Bibi's arm? It looks like Iran has tied the issues definitively so that puts them in a bind. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD surged higher yesterday, driven by broad USD selling following the cease-fire headlines and supported by a slightly more hawkish tilt from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The combination gave buyers the momentum needed to break through key technical levels.From a technical perspective, the pair pushed above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (0.57779) and then cleared the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2026 high at 0.5835. That upside run extended further, with price briefly moving above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (0.58455). However, momentum could not be sustained at that level, and the pair rotated lower.Importantly, the pullback was contained and orderly. The decline held well above the 38.2% retracement of the recent move higher (near 0.5800), signaling that buyers were still in control. That support held, and the pair has since resumed its push to the upside in today’s trading.Currently, NZDUSD is back above the 0.5835 retracement level, but once again facing hesitation near the 200-bar moving average at 0.58455—a level that is proving to be a key near-term ceiling.For buyers to take firmer control, they need to break and stay above the 200-bar MA. A sustained move higher would open the door toward the next upside target at the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range near 0.5884.On the downside, failure to extend above 0.58455—and a move back below 0.5835—would shift focus back toward support. A deeper correction could mirror yesterday’s pullback, with downside targets at:0.5800 area (38.2% retracement of the recent rally) Yesterday’s lowIn the video above, I walk through these levels in detail—highlighting the bias, risk-defining levels, and upside/downside targets—so traders can stay aligned with the prevailing momentum rather than fight it.US stocks are erasing their earlier losses. That is helping to support the risk on trade idea (higher NZDUSD). The S&P index is down -0.10% while the NASDAQ index is down -0.09%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

May WTI crude oil is now up $7.66 to $102.08 on the day.The market is increasingly worried that crude supplies will grow tighter as the Strait remains essentially closed during negotiations. Officials will meet Saturday in Pakistan but in the meantime, the crude isn't moving and Iran has attached that to potential tolls and the ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which are continuing today.With that, oil is picking up and is now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the fall that began on Tuesday on signs that a deal was coming together.The problem for the oil market is that something like 13 million barrels per day are being removed from the world market and production is shut down behind it. Once the Strait opens, it might open slowly and it could take months before it's back to full capacity.In that time, global inventories will be drawn down and it will leave the market inevitably tighter than otherwise. There is some surge capacity via OPEC but at most it could add 2 million barrels per day and with the attacks on Russian infrastructure, that may be optimistic.Looking further out the curve, the market doesn't show a big bet on structural tightness. December WTI trades at $74.68 compared to about $62 before the war started. That's about a 20% rise which is a number that hurts central bank inflation targets but isn't a big hindrance to global growth. Since the ceasefire though, it hasn't moved lower and we're now roughly in the middle of the war range.I would argue that this chart is more important for cross-asset prices than the May number as it indicates a view on future market tightness.For now, the stock market isn't overreacting to the short-term crude rise but it will if the ceasefire looks like it's falling apart. Also note that Treasury yields are ticking up with US 10s at the the highs of the day, up 2.4 bps to 4.315%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech struggles, energy surges: Analyzing today's market shiftsToday’s US stock market activity paints a picture of mixed fortunes across sectors. A notable divergence is seen as technology stocks face downward pressure, while energy stocks stand out with strong gains. Here's a detailed breakdown from today's heatmap.? Technology Sector: Challenges ContinueMicrosoft (MSFT) is down 1.78%, reflecting the ongoing challenges within tech stocks amidst broader market uncertainty.Both Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) face notable declines of 3.54% and 7.50% respectively, contributing to the sector's struggles.Despite some resilience, sector players like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) manage a slight gain at 0.18% amid the predominantly negative sentiment.? Energy Sector: Riding the WaveExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both rise by 1.49%, signaling optimism in oil and gas stocks as they capitalize on recent price hikes.The sector reflects strength driven by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics which continue to favor energy stocks.? Financial Sector: Navigating Mixed WatersJPMorgan Chase (JPM) maintains stability with a marginal dip of 0.03%, showing resilience amidst the mixed market sentiment.In contrast, Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) face declines of 1.39% and 1.18%, reacting to ongoing regulatory and market pressures.? Overall Market Sentiment and TrendsThe market exhibits fragmented signals, with investors hesitant as a result of varying economic indicators and sector-specific developments.The tech sector’s downturn may stem from profit-taking and reaction to global microchip shortages impacting semiconductor companies like Nvidia (NVDA), which fell by 0.30%.Strong performance in energy reflects confidence in this sector's ability to outperform under current economic conditions.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider increasing allocations to energy stocks given their current upward trajectory and underpinning favorable dynamics.With volatility in tech, especially semiconductors, diversification remains key to safeguard against sector-specific downturns.Continued monitoring of market data and sector developments is critical for making informed portfolio adjustments.To stay updated on market movements and gain deeper insights, visit InvestingLive.com for a wealth of resources and analysis. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was -0.5%Wholesale sales +2.7% vs +0.4% expectedPrior sales +1.1% vs +0.5% initially reportedThis number is a big boost for Q1 GDP trackers and likely indicates a response to the Supreme Court halting tariffs. That positive GDP from inventories -- in that case -- could be unwound by higher imports in the month. In today's release covering February 2026, wholesale sales came in at $751.9 billion, representing a 2.7% increase from January and an 8.8% gain year-over-year. Total inventories stood at $919.6 billion, up 0.8% from the prior month and 1.8% above February 2025 levels. The inventories-to-sales ratio fell to 1.22, down notably from 1.31 a year earlier, suggesting that sales growth has been outpacing inventory accumulation. Durable goods were a particular source of strength, with sales rising 4.1% month-over-month, led by the electrical goods subsector, which surged 8.3%.The Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey , conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the government's key economic indicators, tracking sales, end-of-month inventories, and inventories-to-sales ratios for merchant wholesalers across the country. The survey excludes manufacturers' sales branches and offices, as well as wholesale electronic markets, agents, and brokers. Each month, the Census Bureau surveys a probability sample of approximately 4,200 employer firms, stratified by industry and sales size, with estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and trading day differences but not for price changes.The wholesale sector serves as a critical intermediary in the U.S. supply chain, connecting manufacturers and producers with retailers and other businesses. Because wholesalers sit between production and final sale, their sales and inventory levels offer valuable signals about the direction of broader economic activity — rising inventories relative to sales can suggest slowing demand, while falling ratios may indicate strengthening conditions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold and the US dollar are sending some positive signals as we carefully watch a delicate ceasefire. Rising gold and a slipping dollar are generally good signs for risk appetite and we've also seen US stock markets erase losses.Those moves come despite Israel sending evacuation warnings to southern Beirut and Iran warning it will call off the ceasefire if Israeli strikes continue. The market seems to be drawing the conclusion that either the Israeli strikes will soon stop or that Iran will continue to ignore them.Gold is up $58 to $4773 and at the highs of the day. Yesterday, gold spike on the ceasefire but steadily gave back much of the gains.Along with gold falling, the US dollar has softened against the euro and elsewhere. The euro is up 22 pips against the dollar to 1.1684 in a positive sign for markets.The worry now is oil with WTI crude up $5.02 to $99.41 after Iran said it will only allow 15 ships through Hormuz per day during the ceasefire. Perhaps there is a deal to be made where that can rise if there's peace in Lebanon or some other concession.Representatives from the US and Iran will meet in Pakistan this weekend in order to hammer out details of a ceasefire. For now, there are differing versions of what list of points both sides will negotiate around. What is clear, and what the market seems to be betting on is that Trump wants this war to end.In a post on Trump Social, he said that the US military will remain in place near Iran until there is a real agreement and highlighted nuclear weapons and opening the Strait as key issues. He also said -- ominously -- that the military is " Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest."He later talked about Greenland and has previously spoken about Cuba.Despite the moves in gold and the US dollar, I'm watching Treasury yields and 10s are now at the highs of the day, up 1.8 bps to 4.31%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF fell sharply yesterday on the back of broad USD selling, and in the process broke below a cluster of key technical levels, including:200-day moving average at 0.7943 Swing level near 0.79235 100-day moving average at 0.78877 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.78735 That sequence of breaks signaled a meaningful shift in bias. However, the move lacked full conviction. The break below the 38.2% retracement was shallow, and the pair rebounded into the close, climbing back toward the 0.79235 swing level.That level has since become a key risk-defining barometer. In today’s trading, rallies stalled against 0.79235 on two separate occasions during the Asian and early European sessions, reinforcing it as near-term resistance. Sellers leaned against that ceiling—and so far, it has held.In early North American trading, the pair has rotated lower once again, bringing focus back to the downside targets. The 100-day moving average at 0.78877 is the first key level, followed closely by the 38.2% retracement at 0.78735. This zone is critical. A clean break and sustained move below would give sellers more control and open the door for a run toward:Swing area from early March between 0.78348 and 0.7840 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 0.78216 So the sellers have made their initial push, but the next step is crucial. They need to stay below the 100-day moving average and extend through the retracement level to confirm downside momentum.On the flip side, 0.79235 remains the near-term risk level. A move back above that swing area would weaken the bearish bias and force a reassessment of control.In short, the battle lines are drawn:Below 0.78877–0.78735 keeps sellers in chargeAbove 0.79235 shifts control back toward buyers This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower in the wake of broad USD selling following the “cease-fire” headlines, with the initial push taking price below an upward sloping trendline. That break had the look of a momentum shift, but follow-through was lacking. Instead, the pair quickly snapped back higher—an early signal that sellers were not yet ready to fully take control.On the rebound, resistance near the 1.3868–1.3874 swing area capped the upside, and sellers leaned against that zone to reassert control. Since then, price action has become more defined. The 1.3860 level has emerged as a clear barometer, stalling rallies on multiple occasions—twice in the North American session yesterday and again during both the Asian and early European sessions today. Each failed attempt has reinforced that level as a risk-defining ceiling for buyers.For buyers to regain momentum, they need to break and stay above 1.3860, and then push through the 1.3868–1.3874 swing area. A move above that zone would shift the short-term bias and open the door for a more sustained corrective move higher.On the downside, the focus shifts to a key technical cluster. The next target comes in near 1.3816, where the 200-day moving average converges with the 50% retracement of the move up from the March 23 low. That area represents a critical battleground. A break below would tilt the bias more firmly in favor of sellers and pave the way for a move toward the 100-day moving average near 1.3773.In short, sellers have made their move—but the job isn’t done. The question now is whether they can build on that momentum and force a break below the 200-day MA/50% retracement zone, or if buyers can regroup and reclaim control above the 1.3860–1.3874 resistance area. Those levels will define the next directional push. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Our delegation will head to peace talks in PakistanUS must stop Israeli attacks on LebanonAny peace in the region must include Lebanon, the coming hours are very criticalIran was on the verge of responding to the ceasefire violation last night but Pakistan intervened Meanwhile, Israel just issued an evacuation warning for Beirut's sourthern suburbs ahead of a possible attack.The IDF issued evacuation warning to residents of 9 southern Beirut neighborhoods including Harik, Ghobeiry, Lilaki, Hadath, Bourj al-Barajneh, Tahwita al-Ghadeer, Shiyah, and Al-Janah.In terms of oil, it's now up $5.24 per barrel and senior Iranian sources say that under the ceasefire, Iran will allow no more than 15 ships per day through the Strait. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 2.8%Core PCE (excluding food & energy):Core y/y +3.0% vs +3.0% expectedPrior was +2.8%Core m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% expUnrounded core PCE ___% vs +0.285% m/m prior PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m priorSupercore (services ex-shelter) +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/yHeadline PCEHeadline PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expectedDeflator +0.4% m/m vs +0.4% expectedUnrounded headline ___% vs +0.325% m/m prior (unrounded exp ___%)Consumer spending and income for February:Personal income -0.1% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.4%Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month +0.3%Real personal spending +0.1% vs 0.0% priorSavings rate 4.0% vs 4.6% priorReal disposable income fell 0.5% in February as Americans drew on savings to spend in the month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.