Summary:ANZ expects the RBNZ to begin hiking earlier and more aggressively, driven by rising inflation risks from energy and persistent price pressures, even as the domestic economy remains uneven.ANZ has revised its outlook for New Zealand monetary policy, now expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to begin a tightening cycle earlier and move more aggressively than previously anticipated. The bank now forecasts Official Cash Rate (OCR) hikes in July, September, and October, reflecting a shift toward a more persistent inflation backdrop and rising upside risks.The revised profile marks a notable departure from earlier expectations that the RBNZ would remain on hold for longer. It also contrasts with the central bank’s own recent guidance, which has emphasised patience amid a still-fragile economic recovery. The RBNZ has held the OCR at 2.25% and previously signalled that policy could remain accommodative for some time, even as inflation sits slightly above its 1–3% target band. However, the inflation outlook is becoming more complicated. Headline inflation is already running around 3.1%, and near-term projections point to a potential spike toward ~4% as energy costs rise due to the Middle East conflict. This external shock is feeding into tradables inflation and risks spilling over into broader price pressures, particularly if inflation expectations begin to drift higher.At the same time, domestic conditions present a mixed picture. The economy is still in the early stages of recovery following aggressive easing since 2024, with household spending cautious, the housing market subdued, and labour market slack still evident. However, inflation expectations have begun to edge higher again, suggesting underlying price pressures may prove more persistent than previously thought. Against this backdrop, ANZ’s call reflects a view that the RBNZ will need to act pre-emptively to prevent a re-acceleration in inflation, even if growth remains uneven. The implication is a more front-loaded tightening cycle, aimed at anchoring expectations and maintaining credibility. ---Dates for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year and next" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A sharp drop in floating storage reflects Middle East tankers restarting movement after ceasefire news, signalling easing disruption. Its already dated data given weekend developments and the renenewed underlying geopolitical risk.Massive w/w draw in floating storage (-47.2mmb) as Middle East flows restart (data via Vortexa) Ceasefire and US–Iran talks triggered movement of previously stranded tankers Middle East accounts for bulk of decline (-46.17mmb) Signals shift from disruption → partial normalisation in oil logistics Key real-time indicator of supply tightening vs easingVortexa data show a sharp week-on-week decline in crude oil floating storage, highlighting a significant shift in global oil flows following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire and the start of US–Iran negotiations. Floating storage, defined as crude held on tankers at sea rather than delivered to refineries, fell by 47.2 million barrels to 91.28 million barrels in the week to April 10.The move marks a dramatic reversal from the prior week, when storage had surged to a revised 138.48 million barrels, reflecting widespread disruption across Middle Eastern export routes. The latest drop was overwhelmingly driven by the Middle East, where floating storage plunged by 46.17 million barrels to just 8.85 million barrels. This suggests that a large portion of previously stranded tankers, unable to discharge cargo during the height of the Hormuz disruption, have now begun moving again.Elsewhere, Asia saw a more modest decline of 3.86 million barrels, pointing to gradual clearing of congestion in key demand hubs. In contrast, the US Gulf Coast recorded a smaller draw of 1.61 million barrels, with elevated levels still reflecting ongoing bottlenecks, including Venezuelan cargoes awaiting discharge or rerouting.Floating storage is a closely watched real-time proxy for oil market balance. Rising volumes typically indicate oversupply, logistical disruption, or weak demand, while falling levels signal improving flows and stronger end demand. During the recent conflict, floating storage surged as exports were constrained and tankers effectively became temporary storage units. The latest drawdown suggests that, at least temporarily, logistical constraints are easing. However, given the fragile ceasefire and unresolved geopolitical tensions, the improvement may prove short-lived.The data is prior to failed weekend talksthe new US blockadethe potential for renewed airstrike escalation---Vortexa crude oil floating storage refers to an estimate produced by Vortexa of how much crude oil is being held at sea on tankers rather than delivered into ports or refineries. In practice, this means tracking vessels such as VLCCs and Suezmax tankers that are loaded with crude but are not actively discharging their cargo. These ships effectively become temporary storage units, often because of logistical bottlenecks, weak demand, or disruptions that prevent normal delivery.The data itself is built using satellite tracking, AIS vessel signals, and behavioural analytics to determine whether a ship is in transit, waiting, or being used as storage. Because of this, Vortexa’s estimates provide a near real-time view of global oil flows, which is particularly valuable given that official inventory data is often delayed or incomplete.From a market perspective, floating storage is a useful proxy for supply-demand balance. When volumes rise, it typically signals that oil is not finding a home, either due to oversupply, demand weakness, or physical disruptions in the supply chain. Conversely, when floating storage declines, it suggests that cargoes are moving, demand is being met, and the market is tightening.In the current geopolitical environment, it has become especially important. Spikes in floating storage can indicate that tankers are stranded or unable to unload due to conflict or restrictions, while sharp declines, like the one recently observed, suggest that those constraints are easing and flows are normalising. Or had been. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s services sector is contracting more deeply, with broad-based weakness and falling confidence driven by geopolitical uncertainty. The data point to slowing growth and rising downside risks to the economic outlook.New Zealand Services PMI for March 2026 46.0prior 48Composite 48.8prior 50.5Summary:New Zealand services sector contracts further in March (PSI 46.0) Weakest activity driven by discretionary spending segments All sub-indexes in contraction; sales/activity notably soft Conflict-driven uncertainty weighing on confidence and demand Combined PMI/PSI signals rising risk of economic contractionNew Zealand’s services sector weakened further in March, with the BNZ–BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) falling to 46.0, signalling a deeper contraction in activity. The reading declined 1.6 points from February and sits well below the long-run average of 52.8, underscoring the extent of the slowdown.The downturn appears broad-based, with all five key sub-indexes registering below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The most pronounced weakness was seen in the Activity/Sales component, which dropped to 44.6, highlighting a sharp pullback in demand.Survey responses suggest the softness is closely tied to deteriorating consumer confidence, particularly in sectors reliant on discretionary spending. Industries such as accommodation, hospitality, and recreational services have been among the hardest hit, as households become more cautious in response to rising uncertainty linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.This cautious backdrop is also reflected in business sentiment. A significant 69.1% of respondent comments were negative, a notable increase from 56.4% the previous month, indicating a rapid deterioration in confidence across the sector. Many firms explicitly pointed to the geopolitical situation as a key driver of weaker demand conditions.From a macro perspective, the data raise concerns about broader economic momentum. BNZ noted that when combined with manufacturing indicators, the overall signal points toward a heightened risk of contraction in economic activity. While a formal recession is not currently the base case, the bank has revised down its growth outlook for 2026, reflecting the cumulative drag from weaker demand and heightened uncertainty.Overall, the latest PSI highlights an economy losing momentum, with services—typically a stabilising force—now acting as a source of downside risk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WSJ (gated) report that Trump is weighing limited strikes alongside a Hormuz blockade after talks failed, keeping diplomacy alive but shifting toward pressure tactics. The policy path remains uncertain, with escalation and restraint both carrying significant risks.Summary:Trump weighing limited strikes alongside Hormuz blockade after talks collapse Full-scale war seen as less likely but still on the table Diplomatic channel remains open despite hardening US red lines Blockade viewed as “least bad” option but carries escalation risk Oil market caught between supply risk and policy uncertaintyThe White House is actively weighing its next move on Iran following the collapse of high-level talks in Pakistan, with President Donald Trump considering a range of options that span renewed military action and continued economic pressure. According to officials familiar with internal discussions, one of the leading options is a return to limited, targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure, potentially alongside the recently announced naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. A broader, full-scale bombing campaign remains under consideration but is viewed as less likely given the risks of deeper regional destabilisation and the administration’s sensitivity to prolonged military engagement. At the same time, Trump is said to be exploring a more flexible blockade approach, potentially transitioning toward a longer-term multinational escort framework involving US allies. Despite the breakdown in talks, the door to diplomacy has not been fully closed. Both US and Iranian officials have signalled that negotiations could resume, though the gap between the two sides remains substantial. Washington’s demands include full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles, and an end to Tehran’s support for regional proxy groups. Iran’s refusal to concede on its nuclear programme was a key factor behind the talks collapsing. The administration now faces a narrow path. Escalating militarily risks further entrenching conflict and draining resources, while stepping back could allow Iran to retain strategic leverage over energy flows and its nuclear ambitions. The blockade itself is seen by some officials as the most viable pressure tool, targeting Iran’s oil export revenues while attempting to reassure global markets that the Strait of Hormuz will remain operational. However, the approach is not without danger. US naval assets operating in the confined waters of the Gulf face heightened exposure to missile and drone attacks, while Iran has historically shown resilience to economic pressure. The result is a highly uncertain policy path, with markets increasingly focused on whether the next move is calibrated escalation, or something more severe.-The combination of a blockade and potential limited strikes keeps oil structurally bid, but without an immediate supply shock unless escalation spills into Hormuz transit. Volatility remains elevated, with crude skewed higher on headlines. FX sees USD supported on risk and energy dynamics, EUR pressured via energy exposure, while oil-linked currencies gain. Rates face renewed inflation uncertainty, complicating central bank outlooks. Equities remain fragile and headline-driven, with energy outperforming and broader risk assets capped. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Scanning some of the futures opening prices (earlier FX gave indications of the trouble):S&P500 and Nasdaq futures down more than 1%Oil up, brent above $102.50 and US crude (CL) above %105.20Weekend:US-Iran talks break down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Energy shock meets politics: Trump braces for high fuel prices as Iran pressure ramps up.Summary:Trump flags gasoline prices likely to stay elevated into November midterms US announces targeted Hormuz blockade focused on Iranian-linked shipping Clarification: transit to non-Iranian ports still allowed War-driven energy shock feeds into domestic political pressure Opposition questions strategy; approval ratings slide US President Donald Trump acknowledged that elevated oil and gasoline prices may persist through the November midterm elections, highlighting the domestic economic risks stemming from the ongoing war with Iran. Speaking over his weekend golfing in Florida, Trump suggested prices could remain at current levels or edge higher, a notable shift from earlier messaging that framed the spike as temporary.Fuel costs have already surged, with US gasoline prices holding above $4 per gallon for much of April, well above levels seen earlier this year and through most of the past 12 months. The increase reflects the broader energy shock triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.The comments came alongside a major policy escalation. Trump announced that the US Navy would implement a blockade targeting vessels interacting with Iranian ports, warning that ships paying transit fees to Iran would not be granted safe passage. However, US Central Command later clarified that the operation would be limited in scope, focusing on Iranian-linked trade while preserving freedom of navigation for vessels travelling to and from non-Iranian ports through Hormuz.The move follows the collapse of recent US–Iran talks and represents a shift toward coercive pressure rather than negotiated resolution. Iran responded sharply, warning the blockade could drive US gasoline prices even higher, reinforcing market concerns about prolonged disruption.Domestically, the war is weighing on Trump’s political standing. Polling suggests declining approval ratings as voters respond to rising fuel costs and the uncertainty surrounding the conflict. Lawmakers, including senior Democrats, have questioned the effectiveness of the blockade strategy, arguing it may not materially alter Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping while risking further escalation.With the conflict now mid way into its second month, expectations are shifting toward a prolonged standoff rather than a quick resolution.This reinforces a persistent energy-driven inflation shock. The combination of a targeted blockade and failed diplomacy keeps oil risk premia elevated without a full supply collapse, arguably the most difficult scenario for markets. Crude remains supported, with upside skew on any escalation headlines. For FX, this is USD-supportive via risk aversion, while EUR remains vulnerable given Europe’s energy sensitivity. Rates markets face a renewed inflation vs growth tension, complicating central bank paths. Equities may stay headline-driven, with energy outperforming and broader indices capped by input cost pressure. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s foreign minister:In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end warBut when just inches away from ‘Islamabad Mou’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade‘Zero lessons learned’Dude is just having a bitch. Posting these if of interest to anyone. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US tightens the screws: Iran trade hit, Hormuz stays open for now. The origianl announcement of this blockade was garbled, implying full closure, which seemed illogical. Some clarification now. Summary:US to implement maritime blockade targeting Iranian ports from April 13, 10 a.m. ET Enforcement applies to all vessels trading with Iran, regardless of flag Crucially, transit through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian ports remains permitted Move tightens pressure on Tehran without fully closing Hormuz Oil risk premium rises; escalation risk shifts from “closure” to “interdiction” The United States is set to significantly escalate pressure on Iran by initiating a maritime blockade of vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, according to a statement from US Central Command (CENTCOM). The operation is scheduled to begin on April 13 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time and represents a major step up in economic and military pressure following the breakdown of recent US–Iran talks.Under the plan, US forces will enforce restrictions on all maritime traffic engaging with Iranian ports and coastal areas. The enforcement will apply universally, targeting vessels of all nationalities, underscoring the breadth of the measure and its intent to isolate Iran’s trade flows. However, CENTCOM emphasised that the blockade is not a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Ships transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports will be allowed to pass without interference, maintaining a key artery for global energy markets.This distinction is critical. While the US is effectively choking off Iran’s direct maritime trade, it is attempting to avoid a broader disruption to global oil flows that could result from a full Hormuz shutdown. Additional operational details are expected to be communicated to commercial shipping operators via formal maritime notices ahead of implementation.The move follows failed negotiations in Islamabad and signals a shift from diplomacy toward coercive economic containment. It also raises the risk of retaliation from Iran, particularly given Tehran’s repeated warnings that restrictions on its exports could trigger countermeasures in the Gulf.For markets, the development reframes the risk landscape. Rather than a binary “open vs closed” Hormuz scenario, attention now shifts to enforcement dynamics, potential miscalculation at sea, and the durability of safe passage guarantees for non-Iranian flows. The result is a more persistent and complex geopolitical risk premium, particularly for energy markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Talks failed but diplomacy continues according to a Wall Street Journal (gated) report, with regional actors pushing for another round and a ceasefire extension. Core disagreements on Hormuz access, nuclear limits, and frozen funds remain unresolved, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.Summary:US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, but diplomacy remains active Regional states pushing for a second round and ceasefire extension Key sticking points: Hormuz access, enriched uranium, frozen Iranian funds Oil risk premium re-enters; markets reassess ceasefire durability FX: USD firmer, EUR marginally softer via risk channel; energy currencies bidEarlier:US-Iran talks break down. Trump announces blockade of the Strait of HormuzEfforts are underway across the region to revive US–Iran negotiations after high-stakes talks in Islamabad concluded without a breakthrough, according to officials familiar with the discussions. While both Washington and Tehran have publicly struck defiant tones, backchannel diplomacy remains active, with a second round of talks potentially being organised within days. Regional intermediaries are also working with US counterparts to extend the fragile two-week ceasefire announced earlier in the week, reflecting a shared interest in preventing a renewed escalation.The Islamabad meeting marked a rare and significant moment, effectively the highest-level direct engagement between US and Iranian leadership since 1979. Despite that progress in format, substantive differences proved too wide to bridge.Three core issues dominated negotiations. First, the status of the Strait of Hormuz: the US is pushing for a full reopening without restrictions or transit fees, while Iran has floated measures that would include some form of control or compensation. Second, Iran’s nuclear programme remains a major obstacle, particularly the scale and disposition of its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Tehran has proposed compromises, including maintaining only limited enrichment or reducing its stockpile, but these fell short of US demands. Third, Iran is seeking the release of roughly $27 billion in frozen overseas revenues, a demand Washington has been unwilling to fully meet without broader concessions.While no agreement was reached, the continued engagement and push for follow-up talks suggest neither side is ready to abandon diplomacy entirely. However, with the ceasefire window finite and trust limited, markets are increasingly sensitive to the risk of renewed disruption, particularly around energy flows through Hormuz. The immediate takeaway is a reintroduction of geopolitical risk premium, particularly in oil. The absence of a deal, combined with uncertainty over ceasefire extension, supports crude via Hormuz disruption risk, while safe havens (USD, gold) find a bid. For FX, this is mildly EUR-negative via broader risk sentiment and energy sensitivity, while commodity currencies (CAD, NOK) may outperform on higher oil. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hungary’s election delivered a decisive political shock, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceding defeat after 16 years in power to the pro-EU, centre-right Tisza party led by Péter Magyar. Early projections point to a landslide outcome, potentially even a two-thirds parliamentary majority, underpinned by record turnout near 78%, a clear signal of voter demand for change amid economic stagnation, corruption concerns, and strained relations with Brussels. The result marks a structural break in Hungary’s political direction. Orbán had positioned the country as an “illiberal democracy,” frequently clashing with the EU on rule-of-law issues, sanctions on Russia, and financial oversight. That stance led to billions in EU funds being frozen and persistent friction in EU decision-making, where Hungary often acted as a veto player. At the margin, the outcome is euro-positive for three key reasons.First, it reduces political fragmentation risk within the EU. Orbán’s removal eliminates a major internal blocker on fiscal coordination, Ukraine funding, and broader policy alignment. A more cooperative Hungary lowers a fragmentation tail risk and supports confidence in EU governance.Second, it raises the probability of EU funds being unlocked. A Magyar-led government has campaigned on restoring rule-of-law standards and repairing ties with Brussels, which could release significant frozen funding and improve Hungary’s growth outlook. That feeds into stronger regional demand and reduces intra-EU economic divergence, constructive for the euro. Third, it tilts Hungary back toward the European core, geopolitically and economically. Orbán’s closer ties with Russia had been a source of strategic tension; a pivot back toward EU alignment reduces geopolitical risk premia embedded in European assets. It also reopens the longer-term path toward euro adoption, which the opposition had signalled as a policy goal. In sum, while the direct FX impact is modest, the election is incrementally supportive for the euro via improved EU cohesion, reduced political tail risk, and a more predictable policy backdrop. ---Weighing on the euro this morning here in early Asia is:US-Iran talks break down. Trump announces blockade of the Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unsurprising news from the weekend:US-Iran talks break down. Trump announces blockade of the Strait of HormuzAs I said on Friday, prior US administrations had extensive talks with Iran over years and years, occasionally achieving an incremental agreement on an issue. The goal of this admin was to get a wide ranging agreement in one weekend. Silly. The USD is up on this. It should also boost oil and weigh on equities once those markets open. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Late yesterday it appeared that US-Iran negotiations were headed for catastrophe after Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan without a deal but not all hope is yet lost if you read between the lines from the latest statements.The most-recent one is from Trump, who said the US will clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz and blockade Iran from shipping through it, much like Iran has done to the rest of the world.He wrote:So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMPIran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.Then Trump added a short time later:The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!I would highlighted the bolded part but also note that JD Vance left, but Witkoff and Kushner are said to have remained in Pakistan.On the Iranian side, parliamentary speaker MB Ghalibaf (who negotiated on Iran's team) wrote:The opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations. America has understood our logic and principles, and now it's time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not?This is an interesting framing. First he wrote about "this round of negotiations", which hints there may be another one. More importantly, he said this negotiating is about trust. The implication is that Iran is being asked to accept some part of the promise to end the war on trust, but that will have to be earned. How? So far, the best sign is that the bombs aren't flying and that suggests the two week ceasefire is still in place and that some form of talks will continue. I would argue that's very fragile and this is a poor outcome but not quite the worst case scenario, and Trump isn't threatening to blow up Iran's energy infrastructure. All that said, the oil isn't flowing and the optimism from last week appears to be misplaced. Even the trickle of oil coming through the Strait via Iran is now presumably cut off as well. That will lead to a big reversal in last week's oil price drop and I'd expect May WTI to open in the range of $10 higher. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sat: US/Iran TalksSun: Hungary ElectionMon: OPEC MOMR (Apr), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Mar), US Existing Home Sales (Mar), US Monthly Budget Statement (Mar)Tue: IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr), Chinese Balance of Trade (Mar), Japanese Industrial Production Final (Feb), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), US ADP Weekly Change, US PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), South Korean Unemployment Rate (Mar)Wed: Indian WPI & Inflation (Mar), French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr), Japanese Machinery Orders (Feb), Indian Balance of Trade (Mar)Thu: ECB Minutes (Mar), SNB Minutes (Mar), Australian Jobs Report (Mar), Chinese GDP (Q1), Chinese Industrial Production (Mar), Chinese Unemployment Rate (Mar), UK GDP (Feb), UK Industrial Production (Feb), Italian HICP Final (Mar), EZ HICP Final (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/11), US Philly Fed Index (Apr), US Industrial Production (Mar), New Zealand Food Inflation (Mar)Fri: Italian Balance of Trade (Feb)Week AheadUS-Iran Talks (Sat):Talks between the US and Iran are due to begin in Islamabad on Saturday, April 11, and are seen as a make-or-break moment for the fragile two-week ceasefire, with uncertainty over whether Iran will take part amid ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon - although recent reports via Pakistan suggest an Iranian delegation has arrive. The meeting will be held under heavy security at the Serena Hotel, with Pakistan hosting and mediating and China offering indirect backing. Both sides are sending senior officials, including US Vice President JD Vance and Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, alongside Foreign Minister Araghchi, signalling high-level engagement if the talks go ahead. It is currently unconfirmed whether the Iranian delegation reported to have arrived in Pakistan consists of Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi. Negotiators are expected to focus on sharply conflicting proposals, with the US pushing a 15-point framework that includes strict nuclear limits, an end to proxy support and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's 10-point plan calls for security guarantees, recognition of its right to enrich uranium, control over Hormuz transit and a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Key obstacles include the dispute over whether the ceasefire covers Hezbollah, the risk of an Iranian boycott and disagreements over access to Hormuz. In scenario terms, the best case would be a temporary extension of the ceasefire and an agreement to keep negotiating, while the worst case would see the talks collapse quickly, triggering renewed escalation, including possible US strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Friction between the two sides is expected.Hungarian Election (Sun):The contest has so far shaped up to be a two-man race between Fidesz leader Orban and Tisza’s Magyar. Over the past 16 years, Orban has refined what he describes as an “illiberal laboratory”, offering a model for nationalist allies such as US President Trump. However, voter anger over a stagnating economy, a cost-of-living crisis, corruption, and mismanagement has eroded his support and boosted Magyar as a challenger. Magyar is seeking a two-thirds supermajority to reverse rules enacted by Fidesz. The forint has been pricing in a Tisza win since polls turned positive for the party in early 2025, with the HUF set to strengthen further if that materialises. However, any outcome indicating Orban retains some degree of power would weaken the forint. All 199 parliamentary seats are up for election. Each voter has two votes: one for an individual candidate and one for a party. A total of 106 members are elected by first-past-the-post in single-member constituencies, while the remaining 93 seats are allocated via a closed-list proportional representation system in a single national constituency. Polls open at 06:00 CEST/05:00 BST and close at 19:00 CEST/18:00 BST. Ballots are counted throughout the day, with final results expected late on Sunday. However, if the result is close, some ballots may be recounted over the following week.US Earnings Season:Earnings season will kick-off on Monday, and around 70% of S&P 500 market cap will have reported Q1 results by the end of April. The S&P 500 is expected to see earnings growth of 13.2% Y/Y in Q1 2026, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth, according to FactSet. Revenue growth is forecast to rise 9.7% Y/Y, which would be the highest since Q3 2022. All 11 GICS sectors are projected to report revenue growth, led by Tech, Communications, and Financials. Ahead, analysts see earnings growth of 19.1% Y/Y in Q2, 21.2% Y/Y in Q3, and 19.3% Y/Y in Q4, with total FY26 EPS growth see at 17.4% Y/Y. FactSet notes that, of the 110 S&P 500 companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1, 59 issued positive updates vs 51 negative -- the highest proportion of positive guidance since Q3 2021 at 54%, and well above the five-year average of 42%. Please click here for full previewChinese Balance Of Trade (Tue):Consensus expectations point to a moderation in the surplus from the outsized January-February reading, with forecasts of about USD 110bln versus the prior USD 213.62bln. Exports are expected to remain a key driver, although growth may ease after the strong 21.8% Y/Y pace at the start of the year, while imports are likely to stay supported by policy efforts to boost domestic demand and rebalance trade. Analysts highlight several factors shaping the March data. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, may pose risks to supply chains, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz. A temporary reprieve on some US tariffs is also seen as encouraging front-loading of shipments. Meanwhile, continued strength in exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar products is expected to underpin overall export performance. Higher crude prices in March are likely to have lifted the value of imports, potentially narrowing the surplus.US PPI (Tue):The March PPI report will be published on Tuesday. February’s report showed US producer prices unexpectedly accelerating by +0.7% M/M (exp. 0.3%), while core rose +0.5% M/M (exp. 0.3%). Analysts said the results reflected higher costs for goods and services prior to the war in Iran. On an annual basis, headline PPI rose to the highest since February 2025 at 3.4% Y/Y, while the core rate was at 3.9% Y/Y. The data reinforced the view that inflation remains sticky at the wholesale level. The services component drove much of the upside, rising 0.5%, with portfolio management fees up 1% and securities brokerage and investment advisory services accelerating 4.2%. Goods prices added 1.1%. Analysts note that the data came before the Iran-related energy shock, suggesting pipeline pressures may intensify further in March.ECB Minutes (Thu):On 19th March, the ECB maintained its three key rates, with the deposit rate held at 2.00%. The accompanying statement and an unusually short press conference but President Lagarde stressed that policymakers were not pre-committing to a particular path and were well positioned to navigate Middle East uncertainty. Specifically, Lagarde said they were “well positioned and well equipped”. The baseline forecasts, as of the 11 March cut-off, were contingent on market pricing at the time, which implied around 45bps of tightening across 2026; despite this implied tightening, the baseline showed a marked rise in HICP to 2.6% for 2026 (1.9% in the December MPR). However, the adverse and severe alternative scenarios saw this rise to 3.5% and 4.4%, respectively. These scenarios are notable as the conflict continues and the energy shock has increased markedly since mid-March, and given ECB sources on the day of the March announcement said the baseline was already outdated. From the minutes, participants will be attentive to any updates on what governors are looking for in terms of second-round effects and, by extension, any early insight into the timing of a hike. Since then, sources and some officials have said a move as soon as April could theoretically be appropriate, with ECB’s Nagel, for instance, saying such a move would be warranted if the price outlook deteriorates.SNB Minutes (Thu):The SNB will release the minutes of its March meeting, when it kept rates steady at 0.00% as expected and formalised its stance on FX intervention. Soon after the US-Iran war began, the bank said it was “more prepared to intervene in the FX market”, a position formalised at the March meeting, highlighting that the “willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased”. Beyond FX, the statement and forecasts suggest the SNB expects higher energy prices to lift inflation in the short term. This should help ease concerns about a return to negative interest rates, although policymakers have long reiterated that the bar for such a move is high. Markets will scrutinise the minutes for clues on how policymakers view the current geopolitical environment, alongside any commentary on FX intervention.Australian Jobs (Thu):Markets will look for signs of resilience following a rebound in labour indicators, with job vacancies rising 2.7% in the February quarter to 337,900, pointing to solid underlying demand. Hiring has been led by the private sector, particularly construction, retail and accommodation, while public sector vacancies dipped slightly. The focus will be on whether the unemployment rate holds near 4.1% after the 4.3% print in February, and whether employment growth improves after a -30.5k full-time reading in February, alongside the participation rate at about 66.7% (versus 66.9% in February). Strong data could reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance on rates, while ongoing ABS modernisation means some detailed breakdowns will be phased out, with the March detailed release on April 23 set to be the final one in its current format.Chinese GDP (Thu):Consensus sees Q1 GDP growth at about 4.8% Y/Y, with some indicators pointing to upside risk towards the 5.0-5.5% range after a strong start to the year. Industrial production is expected to remain firm after the 6.3% Y/Y pace in January-February, while the unemployment rate is seen holding near 5.3%, in line with the government’s 5.5% ceiling. The release will test whether early-2026 momentum is sustainable beyond Lunar New Year effects. Manufacturing and exports remain key supports, while weakness in the property sector continues to weigh on fixed-asset investment, with development investment recently down 11.1%. External risks, including Middle East tensions, could lift energy costs and pressure margins, while a solid print may reduce the urgency for further stimulus. Markets will also watch for signs of easing deflationary pressures, with a shift towards firmer CPI and PPI seen as key to improving nominal growth.UK GDP (Thu):February’s data will provide a useful benchmark for how the economy was faring before the Middle East energy shock hit and the narrative shifted towards stagflation. Survey data for February was strong, with S&P Global reporting a “solid expansion of UK service activity” and signalling stronger economic growth. February’s M/M is expected at 0.3% (previous 0.0%). For the BoE, the data will provide a starting point to assess how severe an economic downturn to expect in the period ahead, shaping the upcoming policy debate. However, price developments will ultimately be the deciding factor for the MPC.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.Week In ReviewIranian War Review:Between April 4 and April 10, 2026, the conflict shifted from intense military escalation to a fragile and contested ceasefire. Tensions peaked on April 6-7 as the US warned it could target Iran's remaining infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, while Iran initially vowed to resist. In a post on Truth Social, US President Trump said, "A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again". A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan was announced on April 7, with both sides agreeing to pause hostilities and pursue talks, although shipping through Hormuz remained limited. The truce quickly came under strain as Israel continued strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with disputes over whether the ceasefire covered proxy groups, alongside reports of heavy casualties and diplomatic pressure to contain escalation. As of the time of writing, talks are set to begin in Islamabad, but continued Israeli strikes and regional tensions, including accusations over a drone incident in Kuwait, threaten to derail the fragile agreement.OPEC+ Review (Sun):The “voluntary Eight” OPEC+ members met on 5 April and agreed to a modest production quota increase of 206,000 bpd for May, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia with 62,000 bpd each and Iraq with 26,000 bpd, while also warning about the critical importance of safeguarding maritime routes and highlighting damage to energy infrastructure. Analysts view the move as largely symbolic given the ongoing conflict involving Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut since late February, disrupting exports from key Gulf producers and forcing shut-ins or force majeure declarations.US ISM Services PMI (Mon):Headline PMI fell to 54.0 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. The components saw business activity fall to 53.9 from 59.9, although new orders rose to 60.6 from 58.6. When looking at the prices and employment PMIs, both were concerning for the Fed. Prices Paid surged to 70.7 from 63.0 (reminder, March CPI is due on Friday) while the employment PMI dropped to 45.2 (albeit the March NFP was strong). Within the report, it highlighted that the data indicates a 1.9% increase in real GDP on an annualized basis. However, ING suggests it is consistent with a rise of 2.5% when compared with the manufacturing PMI. Also, the ISM Services PMI questions saw companies note how they are purchasing additional inventory to account for geopolitical issues, with oil derivative products being stockpiled in case of an extended conflict or closure of Hormuz.Swedish Inflation (Tue):A cooler-than-expected inflation report for March further underscored Sweden's disinflation process. CPIF Y/Y came in at 1.6% (expected 2.1%, previous 1.7%), while M/M was -0.6% (expected 0.00%) and core CPIF Y/Y also undershot expectations at 1.1% (expected 1.6%). Policymakers will remain mindful of developments in the Middle East, which are likely to create some short-term upward price pressures. For now, the Riksbank may avoid near-term cuts and follow the policy rate path set out in March, which points to keeping rates steady through 2026 - as a reminder, money markets started the year assigning some probability of a cut in the spring and summer. A prolonged conflict could prompt the bank to consider a hike this year, although SEB sees that as unlikely at this stage.FOMC Minutes (Wed):The minutes of the FOMC’s March policy meeting broadly validate the hawkish hold, but show a more explicit debate over two-sided risks beneath the unchanged decision. The key message from participants was that officials were not yet ready to react mechanically to the oil shock from the US-Iran war, with most judging it too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the economy and policy. Even so, the vast majority said progress back to 2% could now be slower and the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target had increased, perhaps explaining why the Fed held rates steady despite lifting its 2026 inflation outlook in the March SEP. Almost all saw the funds rate as broadly within plausible estimates of neutral after last year’s 75bps of easing, and said policy was well placed to wait for more evidence on the implications of the energy shock. Given the heightened degree of economic uncertainty, policy was framed as data-dependent rather than on a preset path. The minutes are firmer than the statement on possible hikes, with some seeing a strong case for two-sided guidance and many saying persistently higher oil prices could justify rate rises if inflation remained elevated, though cuts would still be more likely if inflation eased as expected. On the other side of the mandate, most still saw the labour market as broadly balanced, but the vast majority judged risks to employment to be skewed to the downside, and most warned that a prolonged conflict could weaken sentiment and hiring enough to warrant cuts. On the Middle East, since the March meeting, participants have generally said that any short-lived oil shock could be looked through, while a more prolonged disruption would raise the risk of energy feeding into core inflation and expectations. Elsewhere, staff discussion of the USD described the currency as volatile, but roughly unchanged on net, with safe-haven flows and net energy exporter dynamics offering support. Analysts at Barclays said the March minutes were cautiously hawkish but not pivoting, noting that some favoured two-sided guidance, leaving open the possibility of hikes, though many still expected cuts if inflation declined. The bank says elevated oil prices and sticky core services are seen delaying the return of inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, with upside risks predominating. Still, Barclays retained its call for a 25bps rate cut in September 2026, followed by another in March 2027RBNZ Policy Announcement (Wed):RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.25%, as expected, marking a second consecutive pause, while the language leaned hawkish as it said inflation was expected to rise and the economic recovery to weaken in the near term, and that the Committee was focused on ensuring inflation returned to the 2% target midpoint over the medium term. RBNZ added that this required core inflation and wage growth to remain contained and medium- and long-term inflation expectations to stay around 2%, and said decisive and timely increases in the OCR would be required if these conditions were not met. The minutes showed the Committee was vigilant to any generalised inflationary pressure and stood ready to act to return inflation to target, with some members placing more emphasis on the case for an early monetary policy response, while others emphasised downside risks to growth and argued for more time to judge the extent to which weaker growth offset the second-round effects of higher fuel prices. It also said any signs of significant second-round inflationary effects or rises in medium-term inflation expectations would require decisive and timely increases in the OCR to re-anchor inflation expectations. RBNZ Governor Breman said in the online post-meeting press conference that the decision to hold rates was unanimous, and that policymakers discussed raising rates at the meeting but were not close to hiking, with no strong advocates for a move. She also said tighter financial conditions were expected to modestly dampen growth and that the frequency of rate hikes could be at every meeting or every second meeting, depending on conditions, while Breman maintained the hawkish tone the following day, saying inflation was expected to rise considerably in the near term and that the RBNZ would 'act decisively' if core prices picked up.RBI Policy Announcement (Wed):RBI kept its Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, and maintained a neutral stance, while the Standing Deposit Facility Rate held at 5%, and both the Marginal Standing Facility Rate and the Bank Rate were also unchanged at 5.5%. RBI Governor Malhotra said safe-haven flows had exerted depreciation pressure on currencies of major economies and that global growth faced downside risks, although he added that India’s economy was on a stronger footing at present and noted that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased. The RBI statement said geopolitical uncertainties had intensified significantly and headline inflation remained below target, but upside risks to the outlook had increased, driven by higher energy prices and possible weather-related disruptions to food prices. It also said core inflation pressures remained muted, although supply chain disruptions and the risk of second-round effects rendered the future inflation path uncertain.US PCE (Feb) (Thu):The February PCE is seen as stale because it came before the US-Iran war. Nonetheless, headline PCE rose 0.4% M/M, in line with expectations and up from 0.3% in January. That left the Y/Y rate at 2.8%, matching both expectations and the prior reading. Core measures also rose 0.4%, in line with forecasts and the prior month, while the Y/Y rate eased to 3.0% from 3.1%, also in line with forecasts. Overall, the report was broadly as expected, but headline inflation is certain to jump in March because of the spike in energy prices. It had already picked up in February to 0.4% from 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying price level before the shock. Looking at core inflation, which excludes energy and food, the dip to 3.0% will be welcome, but it remains well above the Fed's 2% target. The WSJ's Timiraos noted that core PCE was firm in February because of goods, with goods inflation rising 0.84%, the biggest increase since January 2022, while core goods prices rose 2.3% over 12 months. Elsewhere in the report, personal income fell 0.1% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%), while spending held at 0.4%, despite expectations for a rise to 0.5%. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the report showed consumer spending was already weak before the shock from higher petrol prices and will probably slow further in Q2, while the price data support the view that inflation was already picking up before petrol prices surged. Pantheon added, however, that the core PCE deflator has risen in February at an above-average pace in the past four years and that the increase was driven by some rises that are unlikely to be repeated.BoK Policy Announcement (Fri):BoK held its base rate at 2.50%, as expected, in a unanimous decision, marking a seventh consecutive pause and the final rate decision under Governor Rhee’s term. BoK said the Middle East conflict posed risks to growth and that it would thoroughly assess external and domestic conditions, including the conflict, while closely monitoring the impact on inflation, growth and financial stability. The central bank stressed the need to remain cautious about FX volatility and noted that trade uncertainties, the Middle East conflict and momentum in the chips sector would influence growth ahead. Governor Rhee said the growth path would hinge on developments in the Middle East and trade conditions, with board members in a wait-and-see mode given the volatility of the situation, adding it was too early to judge the direction of the shock, noting that a temporary shock would not warrant a policy response but a prolonged shock might require action. He also reiterated that it was too early to discuss a rate hike, with policymakers focused on assessing the size and duration of the impact, while adding that the recently introduced dot plot guidance supported policy transparency, although its future use would be determined by the incoming governor.Chinese CPI (Fri):China’s March CPI data, released on April 10, showed cooling consumer inflation and a return to positive producer prices, with headline CPI at 1.0% Y/Y (previously 1.3%, expected 1.2%) and core CPI slowing to 1.1% from 1.8%, while monthly CPI fell 0.7%. In contrast, PPI rose 0.5% Y/Y, ending a 41-month deflation streak. The data point to a mixed backdrop, with easing CPI reflecting post-Lunar New Year normalisation and weak demand, while higher energy and commodity costs drove PPI, indicating margin pressure as firms struggle to pass on rising input costs.Norwegian Inflation (Fri):Norway’s March inflation report echoed trends seen across several European economies, with headline inflation rising from the previous month but showing few signs of second-round effects feeding into core measures. Headline M/M came in at 0.2% (expected 0.2%, previous 0.6%). With the Middle East situation keeping attention on core metrics, CPI-ATE M/M printed at 0.1% (expected 0.2%, previous 0.7%), while CPI-ATE Y/Y was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous 3.00%, Norges Bank forecast 3.00%). Despite the broadly in-line to cooler-than-expected report, inflation remains elevated and well above Norges Bank’s target, making it unlikely to alter the bank’s hawkish stance. At its most recent meeting, it said that "it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings", and SEB therefore reiterated its call for a hike in May.Canadian Jobs (Fri):The Canadian jobs report showed a net 14.1k jobs added in March, broadly in line with the 14.5k forecast and an improvement from February's 83.9k job loss. The composition was soft, however, with full-time jobs declining by 1.1k, although this was a smaller drop than the prior 108.4k fall. Part-time employment led gains, rising by 15.2k, but easing from the previous 24.5k increase. While not the strongest in terms of job creation, the report was less weak than those seen in February and January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held at 6.7%, despite expectations for a rise to 6.8%. Employment rose in the 'other services' industry (+15,000; +1.9%), which includes personal and repair services, and also increased in natural resources (+10,000; +3.0%). Employment declined in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (-11,000; -0.8%). Average hourly wages among employees rose 5.1% Y/Y, accelerating from the prior 4.2%. The BoC is likely to take some comfort that job creation did not weaken further after a poor start to 2026. However, the BoC is largely on hold at present given ongoing uncertainty from US-Canada trade tensions and the Middle East conflict.US CPI (Fri):US headline CPI jumped in March, as expected, amid the Middle East war, with M/M at 0.9% (exp. 0.9%, prev. 0.3%) and Y/Y at 3.3% (exp. 3.3%, prev. 2.4%), as the energy index rose 10.9%, led by a 21.2% increase in gasoline that accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly rise in the all-items index. Excluding volatile energy components, core M/M rose 0.2% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%) and Y/Y 2.6% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.5%). Overall, the release is likely to have little sway on the Fed for now, which had anticipated a significant rise and remains in wait-and-see mode to assess how far the Iranian conflict pushes oil prices higher, and for how long, given the ongoing ceasefire. For the Fed, the base case remains that the FOMC will look through any hump in headline inflation over the coming months. As the WSJ's Timiraos writes, "Recent cease-fire reduces risks of dramatic price increases but paradoxically increases the likelihood of a longer rate pause, as it removes growth hits more than it eliminates inflation pressure, especially if shipping bottlenecks persist." Money market pricing turned marginally more hawkish, with 14bps of cuts priced in by year-end versus 12bps before the release. On PCE, Pantheon Macroeconomics provisionally estimates the core PCE deflator rose 0.26% in March, lifting the inflation rate to 3.1% from 2.9% in February.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides.Notably, Iran has said it can't open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as 'several' US navy ships passed through. Trump said "We're now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz".I wonder if Iran will see that as an escalation as it evidently wasn't coordinated with them.One thing that worries me a bit is that Trump is highlighting that many tankers are headed to the US to pick up oil cargoes. He seems to be excited about that but the flipside of it is that it will drive US oil and gasoline prices higher and it won't take long. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averagesIsreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut timeCrude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the weekUS March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimateIsraeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack launched in BeirutBaker Hughes rig count -3 at 545Fed Nominee Warsh nomination hearing will be delayedMajor European indices close mixed. Higher for the week.Trump to the NY Post: Preparing military if Iran fails to comply in talksCNN. Trump had a "tense" call with Netanyahu on LebanonUMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expectedUS February factory orders 0.0% vs -0.2% expectedInternal rift threatens Iran’s unified front ahead of Islamabad summit - reportCanada March employment report 14.1K versus 15K estimateUS March CPY 3.3% y/y vs 3.3% expectedFed's Daly: If oil prices come back down, a rate cut is not out of the questioninvestingLive European session wrap: Calmer markets ahead of US-Iran peace talksIran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talksThe markets had a brief respite from the headlines from the Middle East with the release of the CPI and the later the Michigan Consumer Confidence. The latest US CPI report showed a sharp headline acceleration driven primarily by energy, while underlying inflation trends remained relatively contained. Headline CPI rose 0.9% m/m, in line with expectations but well above the prior 0.3%, lifting the year-over-year pace from 2.4%. The surge was almost entirely due to energy, with the index up 10.2% and gasoline prices jumping over 21% on the month as geopolitical tensions pushed crude higher. Importantly, gasoline prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels, suggesting there could still be additional pipeline pressure in the near term—though that would likely reverse over time if a sustained ceasefire holds.Beneath the surface, the core inflation data was more encouraging. Core CPI rose just 0.2% m/m for the second consecutive month, well below the 0.9% expected, with the year-over-year rate at 2.6% versus 2.7% expected. The supercore measure also eased to 0.18% m/m, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures—particularly outside of energy—are moderating. However, supercore on a year-over-year basis ticked higher to 3.14%, highlighting that progress remains uneven. Meanwhile, real weekly earnings declined by 0.9%, reversing the prior gain and pointing to some pressure on consumers.Overall, the report reflects a split narrative: a headline inflation spike driven by energy shocks, alongside a softer core backdrop that should offer some comfort to policymakers. Market reaction saw only modest USD weakness that quickly faded, with Fed pricing still indicating no rate moves this year. The key question going forward is whether the energy-driven rise spills over into broader inflation or proves temporary if geopolitical tensions ease.Later, a report from the University of Michigan on consumer confidence came in much weaker (at record low levels) due to the spillover impact from the war and the rise in gasoline prices. The preliminary April consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 47.6 from 53.3, well below the 52.0 estimate and marking the lowest reading on record. The decline was broad-based, with current conditions dropping to 50.1 and expectations falling to 46.1, as consumers across all demographics reported worsening views. The deterioration is largely tied to the Iran conflict and the surge in gasoline prices, which have jumped to around $4.15 nationally from $2.89 pre-war, weighing heavily on perceptions of personal finances, buying conditions, and the overall economic outlook.Inflation expectations also moved higher, adding to concerns. One-year expectations surged to 4.8% from 3.8%, the largest monthly increase in a year, while five-year expectations edged up to 3.4%. Although long-term expectations remain relatively contained, the sharp rise in short-term expectations highlights growing anxiety about near-term price pressures. Overall, while sentiment surveys can be volatile, the drop reflects a meaningful hit to consumer confidence driven by higher prices and uncertainty, with potential for improvement if energy prices ease and geopolitical tensions subsideNorth of the American's border, Canada’s March employment report showed modest improvement, with jobs rising by 14.1K, roughly in line with expectations and a rebound from the sharp -83.9K decline the prior month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% (slightly better than the 6.8% expected). The gains were driven by part-time employment (+15.2K), while full-time jobs were little changed, signaling a labor market that is stabilizing but still lacking strong momentum. Sector data was mixed, with gains in “other services” and natural resources offset by declines in finance and real estate, while on a year-over-year basis health care led job growth and manufacturing lagged. Wage growth picked up to 4.7% YoY—the strongest since late 2024—highlighting persistent inflation pressures despite softer hiring trends. Regionally, results were uneven, with weakness in British Columbia and steady conditions in Ontario, while provinces like Manitoba and Saskatchewan showed strength. Overall, the report suggests a labor market that is holding together after early-year weakness, with elevated unemployment reflecting slower hiring rather than layoffs, and firm wages keeping inflation concerns in play.Geopolitical developments in the Middle East this week were largely about positioning ahead of upcoming ceasefire and peace talks between Iran and U.S. delegates. Expectations are not for a sweeping resolution, but rather incremental progress—namely, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Following the 14-day truce announced late Tuesday, a limited number of ships briefly transited the Strait, but renewed Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon led to another shutdown. However, Israel now appears to be aligning with a ceasefire framework, helping pave the way for this weekend’s negotiations and raising cautious optimism for progress.Markets responded positively to the de-escalation tone, particularly after President Trump stepped back from earlier rhetoric about “total annihilation” in his Easter Sunday message. U.S. equities rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 rising close to 4% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.68% on the week. Oil prices reflected easing supply fears, dropping nearly 15% as traders priced in the potential for improved flow through the Strait. In FX, the USD weakened broadly, with gains seen across most major currencies: EUR +1.82%, GBP +2.04%, CHF +1.38%, CAD +0.69%, AUD +2.53%, and NZD +2.69%, while the JPY was the lone exception, slipping modestly by -0.16% against the dollar. Overall, the tone shifted toward cautious optimism, with markets leaning on the idea that tensions may ease, even if only gradually.As we head into the new week, much will depend on the weekend news and hopes for more peace talks with the Strait of Hormuz open. It that can be done, it would be a step toward a lower oil prices and with hopes, a lower potential inflation environmen. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major stock indices were mixed in trading today with the Dow industrial average and S&P index falling, but the NASDAQ index rising. While the indices were higher on the week with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closing above their 100 day moving averages. The Dow industrial average trading above its 100 day moving average yesterday and closed above that level, but fell back below the level in trading today.A look at the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average -269.23 points or -0.56% at 47916.57.S&P index -7.77 points or -0.11% at 6816.89.NASDAQ index +80.48 points or 0.35% at 22902.89.The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -5.72 points or -0.22% at 2630.58.For the trading week, each of the major indices had solid gains with the NASDAQ index leading the way:Dow industrial average rose 3.04%S&P index rose 3.56%NASDAQ index rose 4.68%Russell 2000 rose 3.97%For the week, there are a number of large-cap stocks which rose by over 10%.Nebius NV – 33.15% Intel – 23.82% SanDisk – 21.41% Lam Research – 20.70% Marvell – 19.87% Broadcom – 18.13% Western Digital – 16.43% Arista Networks – 16.36% Corning – 15.81% Micron – 14.84% Amazon.com – 13.64% Vertiv Holdings Co – 12.98% AMD – 12.66% ASML ADR – 12.19% Eaton – 11.61% Ciena Corp – 10.74% Shake Shack Inc – 10.39% GE Vernova LLC – 10.30% SharkNinja – 10.30% Caterpillar – 10.24% Texas Instruments – 10.19%? Intel (+23.82%) Intel's recent surge was triggered by three major catalysts: a $14.2B buyback of Apollo's stake in its Ireland fabrication facility, the successful ramp of its 18A (1.8nm-class) process node to high-volume manufacturing, and strong demand signals from CEO Lip-Bu Tan. The stock is now up roughly 240% from its 52-week low, which was reached in April 2025 when tariff fears and a leadership vacuum had crushed the stock. TECHi®? SanDisk (+21.41%) SanDisk rose roughly 9% on Thursday after an analyst raised his price target on the stock, with shares climbing again Friday. Charles Schwab The recently spun-off storage company has benefited from broader semiconductor sector momentum.? Lam Research (+20.70%) BofA named Lam Research one of its top semiconductor picks for 2026. The company's revenue in its last reported quarter increased 28% year over year to $5.32 billion, while earnings jumped 46%. Yahoo Finance As a key maker of chipmaking equipment, it benefits directly from the memory capex cycle driven by AI demand.? Marvell (+19.87%) Marvell Technology was among the semiconductor leaders this week, rallying significantly in individual sessions as it was identified as a breakout signal leader. www.marketshost.com Marvell is a key player in AI networking and custom silicon for hyperscalers.? Broadcom (+18.13%) Broadcom climbed nearly 5% on Wednesday's ceasefire rally alone. CNBC More broadly, Broadcom's networking and ASIC businesses make it a core AI infrastructure investment, with analysts projecting its semiconductor revenue could triple to more than $100 billion by 2027. WTOPTV? Western Digital (+16.43%) & Micron (+14.84%) Both are memory/storage giants riding the AI-driven data center buildout. Micron Technology gained more than 7% on Wednesday alone CNBC as the Iran ceasefire reduced fears of supply chain disruptions. Micron has a $20B capex budget this fiscal year to meet soaring AI memory demand.? Arista Networks (+16.36%) Arista is a leading provider of cloud networking gear for hyperscale data centers. It has been a consistent beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout as companies like Meta and Microsoft expand their data center footprints.? Corning (+15.81%) Corning was among the stocks hitting intraday record highs this week Yahoo Finance as the rally broadened beyond pure semiconductors into industrial and materials names. Corning supplies optical fiber and display glass with growing AI/data center applications.? Amazon (+13.64%) Amazon's AWS cloud segment is a major buyer of AI chips and data center infrastructure. The broader tech/AI rally, combined with Iran ceasefire relief on energy costs, lifted the stock.? AMD (+12.66%) AMD announced a multiyear deal to supply Meta with GPU units for AI data centers, demonstrating conviction in AMD's chips. The upcoming Instinct MI450X next-generation AI accelerator is slated for release in late 2026. WTOPTV? ASML ADR (+12.19%) ASML controls most of the global photolithography market and has an absolute monopoly on EUV photolithography, necessary for fabricating the most advanced semiconductor chips. NerdWallet With earnings due next week, investors are positioning ahead of results. ASML climbed 1.5% or more on Friday alone following TSMC's strong revenue report. Charles Schwab? Eaton (+11.61%) & GE Vernova (+10.30%) Both are power infrastructure plays that benefit from the massive electricity demand driven by AI data centers. The intraday record-high list this week spread into industrial names, including electrical components and equipment companies. Yahoo Finance? Vertiv Holdings (+12.98%) Vertiv makes power management and cooling systems for data centers — a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending as data centers require more sophisticated thermal and power solutions.? Ciena Corp (+10.74%) Ciena was identified as one of the semiconductor/networking names breaking out on its own merits this week. www.marketshost.com It supplies optical networking equipment heavily used in AI data center interconnects.? Caterpillar (+10.24%) & Texas Instruments (+10.19%) Both are industrials/analog chip plays. Caterpillar benefits from infrastructure and construction activity, while TI's analog chips are embedded in everything from industrial equipment to EVs. The week's rally extended notably into industrial and infrastructure-related names. Yahoo FinanceBottom line: This was primarily a relief rally driven by the US-Iran ceasefire removing immediate supply chain and energy fears, amplified by strong TSMC data validating AI chip demand, and punctuated by Intel's specific turnaround story. The breadth of the move — from chip equipment makers to industrials — suggests broader market repositioning after weeks of geopolitical pressure This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media Iranian media says Iran’s delegation includes foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several parliament membersThe U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkopf are expected to arrive shortly. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD is heading into the close trading near the lower end of a well-defined swing-area ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). This zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts over the past six or so weeks, making it a key barometer for buyer conviction. Each test has attracted sellers, but the fact that the pair is once again pressing into the lower bound of that range suggests buyers are not backing down. If the price can build momentum and extend above the top of this ceiling area, it would signal a meaningful shift in control, opening the door for a broader upside extension as trapped shorts are forced to cover and momentum traders re-engage.On the downside, the 100- and 200-day moving averages—clustered between 1.3414 and 1.3424—serve as a critical support zone. This area represents a classic “line in the sand” where buyers have recently leaned to defend the broader bullish bias. A move below that cluster would not only break a key technical floor but also tilt the short-term bias back in favor of the sellers, likely leading to increased downside probing as confidence in the bullish structure erodes.Bottom line: The battle lines are clearly drawn. Resistance above at 1.34708–1.3488 defines the upside breakout zone, while support below at the 100- and 200-day moving averages defines the risk for buyers. With price squeezed between these levels, the pair is coiling into the close, and the next directional move will likely be driven by weekend headlines and how traders respond in the early hours of Monday trading. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fars is reporting that Israel will announce it's commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut). The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend...WHat to expect?The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability. The primary goal is to eliminate any pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, which means strict limits—or potentially a halt—to uranium enrichment, backed by strong verification and inspection measures. The U.S. is also pushing for the reopening and protection of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure steady global oil flows, along with broader de-escalation across the region, including curbs on Iran-backed proxy activity. At its core, the U.S. is seeking a framework that reduces military threats, stabilizes energy markets, and provides long-term security assurances.Iran’s position, represented by Abbas Araghchi, is focused on economic relief and sovereignty. The top priority is the lifting of sanctions—particularly those restricting oil exports and access to the global financial system. Iran also insists on maintaining its right to a civilian nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, while demanding an end to military pressure from the U.S. and its allies. Additionally, Iran is seeking recognition of its regional role and influence, along with firm guarantees against regime-change efforts. Overall, Iran is looking for a deal that restores economic stability while preserving its strategic autonomy.U.S. delegationJD Vance – leading the talks Steve Witkoff – key negotiator Jared Kushner – part of the diplomatic team Vance is the central figure and seen as the main face of the U.S. side in these negotiations. It is probably good Kushner and Witkoff are playing behind Vance this time. Iran delegationAbbas Araghchi – leading diplomat Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – senior political figure It’s still unclear if military figures (IRGC) will attend.Pakistan (host & mediator) Led by the government of Shehbaz Sharif Pakistani officials act as go-betweens (proximity talks) rather than having both sides face each other directly How the talks are structured Held in Islamabad“Proximity talks” → U.S. and Iran sit in separate rooms Pakistan shuttles messages between both sidesBottom lineU.S.: Vance-led team (with Witkoff, Kushner)Iran: Araghchi + GhalibafPakistan: mediator, not a direct negotiating partyThis is a high-level but still cautious setup, reflecting how fragile trust is—especially with both sides not even sitting in the same room.Meanwhile, the troops are arriving with estimates of 1500 to 2000 troops arriving in coming days. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day.For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57. The big catalyst was the announcement of a cease-fire and the potential for the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz. Although, not fully open (it is virtually closed still), the market is discounting some sort of reopening soon). The June contract is trading at $89.13.The price low on February 26 came in at $63.81, just ahead of the war starting on February 28. The initial upside move pushed prices to a close of $71.02 on March 2, before momentum accelerated sharply. That surge over the next few days took the price to a high of $119.48 on March 9. A sharp correction followed, with the low on March 10 reaching $76.73, but buyers stepped back in and drove the price higher again, peaking at $117.62 earlier this week. Since then, the market has seen another pullback, with the low this week coming in at $91.05.Bottom line: The swings—from the mid-$60s to near $120 and back toward $90—underscore just how volatile and headline-driven this market has become. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.