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GBP/USD holds near 1.3460 as Iran talks disappoint traders
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains firm on Monday as talks between Iran and the US disappointed investors, triggering a reaction from the White House, while recent news suggests that Tehran could be considering abandoning uranium enrichment, a key condition set by the US to end the war.
USD/JPY holds onto light gain as Hormuz closure fuels safe-haven demand
The USD/JPY pair is trading with a neutral tone near 159.70 on Tuesday, up 0.27%, as markets react to a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions following headlines that the United States (US) has moved to effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI Oil surges on renewed Iran tensions as US blockade threat stokes supply fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $95.70 per barrel on Monday at the time of writing, rising 5.90% on the day but still struggling to regain the $100 threshold after last week’s sharp volatility.
GBP/JPY extends rally to six days as rising Oil prices weigh on Yen
The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with GBP/JPY extending its rally for a sixth consecutive day as rising Oil prices continue to weigh on the Yen. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 214.87, its highest level since February 4.
USD: Blockade supports cautious rebound – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is firmer after President Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports, with US Dollar Index (DXY) off its Asian highs and still seen within a broader bearish setup.
NZD: Hawkish pricing faces growth reality – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that recent New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric look vulnerable. Markets now price nearly three hikes by year-end despite New Zealand’s negative output gap and below-trend growth.
Oil: Supply shock risks and inflation focus – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf highlights that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, driving a sharp drop in Gulf crude exports and taking a large volume of production offline.
USD: Safe haven flows and de-dollarisation debate – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley observes that speculators have been rebuilding long Dollar positions as the US currency acts as the preferred safe haven during the Middle East conflict.
Euro area: Activity soft but risks stabilizing – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area activity data in Q1 have been somewhat disappointing, especially German industry, but they see limited upside risk to their cautious 0.1% qoq German GDP forecast.
ECB: Higher inflation and more rate hikes – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists note the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in March but now expects two 25 bp hikes in June and September, already fully priced by markets. The deposit rate sits at 2.0%, seen as neutral.
Hungary: Policy reset and euro path – ING
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky say Hungary’s new Tisza-led supermajority reduces short-term policy uncertainty and raises expectations for institutional repair, EU relations and fiscal credibility.
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%
USD: Oil-linked scenarios shape Dollar outlook – HSBC
HSBC's report on G8 currencies argues that Middle East geopolitics and Oil remain the dominant drivers for the Dollar and major FX. The bank highlights a recently strengthened USD–Oil correlation driven by supply shock and safe-haven flows.
NZD/USD weakens after US-Iran talks collapse, Oil jump boosts Fed hawks
NZD/USD moves lower at the start of the week and trades around 0.5830 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day after the failure of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend.
Global outlook: IMF set to cut growth forecasts – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.
WTI Crude Oil stalls below $98.00 with Iran peace hopes still alive
Oil prices jumped on Monday following the failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran and the US pledge to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold builds on intraday ascent amid modest USD pullback; upside potential seems limited
Gold (XAU/USD) touches a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session and looks to build on its intraday bounce from the $4,633-$4,632 area, or a four-day low, touched earlier this Monday.
HUF: Election outcome boosts Forint as EU risk recedes – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that Hungary’s election delivered a decisive victory for Péter Magyar’s pro‑EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, easing concerns about future EU budget and Ukraine aid negotiations.
Iran criticizes US for blockade of vessels
According to a report from the Iranian state media Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a spokesperson from Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said during European trading hours on Monday that Tehran condemns the United States (US) intentions to blockade vessels entering and exiti
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