SBI Holdings has announced plans to acquire a majority stake in Singapore digital-asset platform Coinhako, marking a significant step in the group’s global crypto and tokenisation strategy.  The Japanese financial conglomerate said its wholly owned subsidiary, SBI Ventures Asset, has signed a letter of intent with Holdbuild Pte. Ltd. to inject capital into Coinhako and purchase shares from existing investors. The proposed transaction, which remains subject to regulatory approval, would see Coinhako become a consolidated subsidiary of SBI Holdings. The two parties will now finalise the structure of the deal, including capital-injection methods and the acquisition of shares from current shareholders. Coinhako, founded in Singapore and considered a pioneer in the region’s digital-asset market, operates through regulated entities licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the BVI Financial Services Commission.  SBI said combining Coinhako’s operational expertise with the group’s global resources would help establish a “next-generation digital asset powerhouse” in Asia. SBI Chairman Yoshitaka Kitao stated that incorporating Coinhako into the group aligns with its strategy to expand digital-asset infrastructure and foster cross-border tokenised finance.  Coinhako co-founder Yusho Liu believes joining forces with SBI will accelerate efforts to position Singapore as a regional hub for tokenised assets and stablecoins. The post SBI Moves to Acquire Singapore Crypto Platform Coinhako appeared first on LeapRate.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited has strengthened its presence in the Middle East with the appointment of Jalal Almarhoon as Managing Director and Chief Regional Representative for the region.  The move follows the recent opening of HKEX’s Riyadh office. Mr Almarhoon, who began his role on 10 February, will report to Johnson Chui, HKEX’s Head of Global Issuer Services.  His remit includes advancing the exchange’s engagement across Saudi Arabia and neighbouring markets, promoting Hong Kong as a preferred listing destination for issuers, and overseeing relationships with major investors and stakeholders. HKEX said the Middle East is becoming an increasingly important driver of global capital flows and strengthening its footprint in the region is a strategic priority.  Chief Executive Bonnie Y Chan stated that the exchange was “delighted to welcome Jalal”, highlighting his more than 20 years’ experience across financial centres in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Amsterdam. Mr Almarhoon joins from BNP Paribas, where he served as Managing Director and Head of Strategic Corporate Coverage in Saudi Arabia. His previous roles include senior positions at Société Générale and Standard Chartered. The post HKEX Expands Middle East Presence With Appointment of Regional Chief appeared first on LeapRate.

The government has named HSBC as the platform provider for the Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot, marking a major step in its plan to modernise sovereign debt issuance using distributed ledger technology. The decision follows a competitive procurement process launched in October 2025. Officials said the pilot forms a core part of the UK’s Wholesale Financial Markets Digital Strategy and is intended to ensure the country remains at the forefront of global financial innovation. Lucy Rigby KC MP, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, said the initiative aims to attract investment and reduce costs for firms by exploring how digital infrastructure can enhance the gilt market.  She added that DIGIT reflects the government’s ambition to strengthen the UK’s position as a leading financial centre. HSBC will deploy its Orion digital assets platform for the pilot, which will issue digitally native, short-dated gilts within the Digital Securities Sandbox.  The government is also engaging additional suppliers to support accessibility and secondary-market development. Alongside HSBC, Ashurst LLP has been appointed to provide legal services, with the firm’s digital assets team advising on the pilot’s structuring and implementation. The DIGIT programme is designed to test how distributed ledger technology can be incorporated into sovereign debt issuance processes and to spur wider adoption across the UK financial system.  Officials said the pilot will help catalyse domestic DLT infrastructure and provide a foundation for future innovation in capital markets. The post UK Appoints HSBC to Lead Digital Gilt Pilot as DIGIT Progresses appeared first on LeapRate.

The New York Stock Exchange has launched the NYSE Texas Advisory Board as it continues to expand its footprint in one of the fastest-growing regions of the United States.  The initiative marks the latest step in the development of NYSE Texas, which was announced a year ago and has since grown to more than 100 dual-listings. Founding members include Amanda Brock of Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Scott Mueller of Goldman Sachs and Edward Crawford of Coltala Holdings. The group will advise on regional strategy and support efforts to attract and serve companies across the state’s rapidly expanding economy. Lynn Martin, president of NYSE Group, said the creation of the board underlines the “momentum and meaningful progress” achieved since the initial launch. Bryan Daniel, president of NYSE Texas, added that the advisory team would help strengthen the exchange’s connection with local issuers and guide future expansion. NYSE Texas reached its 100th dual-listing milestone in December 2025, establishing itself as the leading listing venue in the state.  The exchange aims to continue providing companies with enhanced access to capital markets while anchoring operations within Texas’s business community. The post NYSE Forms Texas Advisory Board appeared first on LeapRate.

Dukascopy Bank has expanded the range of assets available on its MetaTrader 5 platform, broadening access to global markets for retail and professional traders.  The update increases the number of tradable instruments from just over 100 to more than 400, marking one of the platform’s largest expansions to date. The newly added instruments include gold and silver, an extended set of foreign exchange crosses and a selection of cryptocurrency CFDs. All instruments are now live across both demo and real-money accounts. Dukascopy said the expansion is aimed at improving market access for clients seeking to diversify across asset classes.  The firm highlighted precious metals and crypto CFDs as key components of growing customer demand, particularly among traders looking for alternative markets during periods of volatility. It continues to prioritise improving the overall trading experience through wider product choice and increased flexibility. The move also positions the MT5 platform more competitively against multi-asset rivals, where large instrument counts have become an industry standard. Dukascopy added that the updated product suite forms part of a broader effort to provide clients with the tools and resources needed to trade global markets effectively.  The bank noted that further platform enhancements are expected over time as it monitors demand and market developments. The post Dukascopy Expands MT5 Offering to More Than 400 Instruments appeared first on LeapRate.

Broadridge Financial Solutions reported a sharp acceleration in activity on its Distributed Ledger Repo (DLR) platform, with daily average volumes rising 508% year-on-year in January to $365 billion.  The system processed $7.3 trillion of repo transactions during the month, underscoring the rapid institutional adoption of tokenised settlement technology. The platform, which uses distributed-ledger infrastructure to improve collateral mobility and settlement precision, has been expanding across a broader base of global clients.  Broadridge said momentum from its breakout 2025 has continued into the new year as firms increasingly rely on digital workflows for high-value funding markets. Horacio Barakat, Broadridge’s head of digital innovation, said adoption reflects the “real, day-to-day value” institutions are seeing as volumes scale.  He added that Broadridge plans to expand into intraday funding and more complex collateral arrangements during 2026, while ensuring “interoperability, resilience, and trust.” DLR now supports sponsored and intraday repo, helping institutions manage liquidity more efficiently and reduce financing costs.  Broadridge said the platform’s growing role in the securities-lending ecosystem demonstrates the market’s broadening acceptance of tokenised real-asset settlement. The post Broadridge’s Distributed Ledger Repo Platform Surges 508% appeared first on LeapRate.

Nissay Asset Management has become the first Japanese asset-management firm to implement Broadridge’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Trade Assignment Portal, a digital tool designed to automate the Assignment of Trade (AOT) process for TBA mortgage-backed securities trading. The platform replaces email-based workflows with instant document generation, electronic signatures, bulk distribution of AOT letters and real-time tracking, significantly reducing administrative load and improving transparency. Completed documents are stored securely in the cloud. Shuichi Uchida, head of trading at Nissay Asset Management, said the system enables the firm to “streamline AOT processes” and reallocate time previously spent on routine tasks. With Japan’s asset-management sector under pressure to enhance productivity, Nissay said the portal allows its traders to focus more on market analysis and execution. Broadridge APAC president David Runacres said the system exemplifies the firm’s commitment to enhancing automation and efficiency across the region. He added that the portal lays the foundation for “future network value,” enabling broader collaboration across market participants. Nissay chose the solution partly because it preserves core elements of established workflows, allowing the firm to maintain broker relationships while modernising operations. The implementation marks a further step in Japan’s gradual adoption of digital infrastructure in bond and derivatives markets. Broadridge said the portal will provide long-term operational agility as market participants continue to upgrade legacy processes. The post Nissay Asset Management Adopts Broadridge Trade Portal appeared first on LeapRate.

Schroders has agreed to a £9.9 billion takeover by Nuveen, marking a significant asset-management deal and creating a combined group with nearly $2.5 trillion in assets under management.  The recommended cash acquisition will see Nuveen’s newly formed subsidiary, Pantheon, purchase the entire issued and to-be-issued share capital of Schroders. Under the terms, shareholders will receive up to 612p per share, including a 590p cash payment and up to 22p in permitted dividends. The offer represents a premium of 29% to Schroders’ closing price on 11 February and as much as 55% against its 12-month volume-weighted average. Nuveen said the merger will combine two “highly complementary” businesses and accelerate growth across institutional and wealth channels. The Schroders brand will be retained, and London will become the combined group’s non-U.S. headquarters, employing around 3,100 staff. Schroders’ board said the premium reflects both the value of its ongoing transformation strategy and the longer-term benefits of the combination. The firm has secured irrevocable undertakings covering about 42% of its shares. Schroders chair Dame Elizabeth Corley said the transaction would “create a new global leader in public-to-private investment management,” while Schroders chief executive Richard Oldfield said Nuveen offered a partner that “shares our values” and strengthens its balance sheet. The deal, subject to regulatory approvals, is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026. The post Schroders Agrees £9.9 Billion Takeover By Nuveen appeared first on LeapRate.

Schroders has agreed to a £9.9 billion takeover by Nuveen, marking a significant asset-management deal and creating a combined group with nearly $2.5 trillion in assets under management.  The recommended cash acquisition will see Nuveen’s newly formed subsidiary, Pantheon, purchase the entire issued and to-be-issued share capital of Schroders. Under the terms, shareholders will receive up to 612p per share, including a 590p cash payment and up to 22p in permitted dividends. The offer represents a premium of 29% to Schroders’ closing price on 11 February and as much as 55% against its 12-month volume-weighted average. Nuveen said the merger will combine two “highly complementary” businesses and accelerate growth across institutional and wealth channels. The Schroders brand will be retained, and London will become the combined group’s non-U.S. headquarters, employing around 3,100 staff. Schroders’ board said the premium reflects both the value of its ongoing transformation strategy and the longer-term benefits of the combination. The firm has secured irrevocable undertakings covering about 42% of its shares. Schroders chair Dame Elizabeth Corley said the transaction would “create a new global leader in public-to-private investment management,” while Schroders chief executive Richard Oldfield said Nuveen offered a partner that “shares our values” and strengthens its balance sheet. The deal, subject to regulatory approvals, is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026.The post Schroders Agrees £9.9 Billion Takeover By Nuveen first appeared on LeapRate.

TP ICAP has launched Fusion Structured Products Trading Systems, the first electronic alternative trading system (ATS) designed specifically for secondary-market trading of U.S. structured products. The platform aims to address liquidity fragmentation across the market by offering a centralised electronic order book, real-time request-for-quote functionality, firm pricing, and anonymous execution.  It is available to issuer banks, distributors, wealth advisers, wholesalers, and broker-dealers serving institutional clients. TP ICAP said the system provides a live aggregated view of market activity, allowing users to see available prices and RFQs in one place. The platform also offers detailed reporting and audit-trail features to meet growing regulatory expectations around transparency. Robert Romano, TP ICAP’s head of structured products for the Americas, said Fusion Structured Products will “enhance the secondary market” by streamlining operations and opening new trading opportunities. He added that the initiative aligns with broader market trends toward electronification and increased regulatory scrutiny. The launch marks a significant step for a market that has historically lacked standardised electronic trading infrastructure, with much activity still conducted through manual or bilateral channels. TP ICAP said its new ATS aims to create a more efficient and accessible trading environment, supporting price discovery and improving liquidity for participants across the structured-products ecosystem. The full name of the platform is TP ICAP Fusion Structured Products Trading Systems. The post TP ICAP Unveils Fusion Structured Products Trading System For U.S. Secondary Market appeared first on LeapRate.

Alex recalls, “I started trading during lockdown, with no mentor or guarantees. It was all trial and error, but it built resilience. Every mistake became a lesson, and that’s what I now pass on to others.” Today, he leads an active trading community providing daily market insights, mentorship, and live training sessions. His approach combines technical precision, centered on Fibonacci retracements and key market structures, with macroeconomic awareness, helping traders see beyond the charts.  Notably, he is driven by one mission: to redefine what growth looks like in trading. He states, “Protect your capital first. The market rewards patience, not impulse. Learn the process before chasing profits.”  For Alex, joining the Exness Team Pro is a continuation of his mission to empower traders. “Exness shares my vision of creating the next generation of skilled and confident African traders. This partnership is about impact; about reaching more people, building credibility for African traders, and proving that skill and discipline can change lives.  Dildora Djalolova, Exness Head of Social Media, commented, “Alex embodies the spirit of Exness Team Pro: authentic, disciplined, and committed to elevating others. His story reflects the journey so many traders across Africa are building right now, and his voice adds strength and inspiration to our growing African community.”  Through the Exness Team Pro initiative, Exness has brought together world-class traders who merge mastery with mentorship, creating a collective of professionals dedicated to raising trading standards worldwide.  About Exness:  Founded in 2008, Exness is a global multi-asset broker committed to offering better-than-market conditions to traders. Today, Exness is trusted by a global network of active traders. With a focus on transparency, innovation, and long-term partnerships, Exness delivers stability, precise execution, and instant withdrawal processing, setting the benchmark for reliability in the online trading industry. The post Exness Team Pro welcomes Alex Muoki: The trader redefining Kenya’s trading culture appeared first on LeapRate.

Tradeweb Markets has completed the industry’s first fully electronic swaption termination, marking a significant step forward in efforts to modernise the bilateral derivatives market. The transaction, executed between Citadel and Wells Fargo on Tradeweb’s Swap Execution Facility, was processed post-trade through OSTTRA’s MarkitWire platform.  Swaptions, unlike cleared interest rate swaps, cannot be compressed easily, meaning traders must terminate or novate positions to remove exposure. Tradeweb explained that the electronic workflow directly addresses this long-standing operational challenge. The new functionality allows users to input an existing trade’s MarkitWire identification number, enabling the platform to automatically retrieve and match the original transaction details. This reduces the risk of booking errors and speeds up confirmation once both parties approve the termination. Troy Dixon, Tradeweb’s co-head of global markets, said the development demonstrates “how electronic innovation can simplify swaptions trading,” adding that it will help clients manage exposures and streamline workflows.  Citadel’s global fixed income chief operating officer, John Niccolai, called the milestone a meaningful step towards greater “optionalitity and scalability” in the swaptions market. OSTTRA’s Michael Wilshere feels the partnership reflects industry demand for automated and standardised post-trade processes. Tradeweb has been a major force in electronifying the global interest rate swaps market since 2005. The firm now works with 18 swaptions dealers and stated that the new capability will further expand liquidity and operational efficiency for clients trading complex derivatives. The post Tradeweb Completes Industry’s First Fully Electronic Swaption Termination appeared first on LeapRate.

Options Technology has agreed to acquire Crossvale in a move aimed at accelerating private cloud adoption and application modernisation across the financial services sector. The deal, which remains subject to regulatory approval, will expand Options’ ability to help banks and trading firms reduce technology debt and update legacy systems, particularly as the industry reassesses the cost and control implications of public cloud use.  Both companies stated that the combination will offer a secure and compliant route for firms looking to modernise infrastructure without sacrificing data sovereignty or operational resilience. Crossvale specialises in containerisation, application modernisation and database migration, working closely with partners such as Red Hat and VMware. Options said integrating these capabilities with its private cloud platform would create an end-to-end modernisation offering tailored for regulated markets. The move comes shortly after Options launched PrivateMind, an AI platform designed for data-sovereign financial services use cases. The company believes the acquisition will help clients migrate and run AI workloads within a controlled environment. Danny Moore, Options’ chief executive, commented that the acquisition arrives “at exactly the right moment,” pointing to rising regulatory obligations and firms’ growing interest in cloud repatriation. Crossvale’s chief executive, Todd Millard, said demand for modernisation is “rapidly accelerating” as organisations shift critical workloads. Vitruvian Partners, a majority shareholder in Options, feels the deal aligns with the company’s long-term strategy to expand its capabilities across global financial markets. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. The post Options Technology Moves To Acquire Crossvale To Boost Private Cloud And AI Modernisation appeared first on LeapRate.

Eurex Clearing has named Laura Bayley as its next chief executive, with her appointment to the Executive Board scheduled to take effect on 1 June 2026.  She joins from SIX Group, where she has been Head of Clearing Services and chief executive of SIX x-clear since 2022. Bayley brings extensive experience in market infrastructure, regulatory policy and major integration projects, including roles at SIX x-clear and BME Clearing.  With a background in law and Chinese studies, she has played a key role in shaping regulatory and governance frameworks within the clearing division and represents SIX on bodies including the EACH Executive Committee and the SWIFT Board. Her appointment marks a continuation of Deutsche Börse Group’s strategy to modernise clearing operations and strengthen resilience across derivatives markets. Robbert Booij, Head of Financial Derivatives and CEO of Eurex, said he was “delighted to welcome Laura”, noting her “forward-looking vision for shaping the future of clearing through innovation” and her ability to lead transformation initiatives. Bayley stated that she is “deeply honoured and grateful for the opportunity to lead Eurex Clearing”, calling the organisation “an institution that stands at the heart of the financial markets.” She added that she looks forward to working with clients and partners to reinforce the clearing house’s position through “resilient, high-quality infrastructure.” The post Eurex Clearing Names Laura Bayley As Chief Executive Officer appeared first on LeapRate.

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Apex Group have announced a collaboration to connect private funds with LSEG’s Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI), creating an end-to-end digital distribution channel that aims to reshape how managers raise capital and how investors access private-market opportunities. DMI, powered by Microsoft Azure, uses blockchain technology to support the full asset lifecycle, from issuance and tokenisation to distribution, settlement and servicing.  Apex Group, which oversees $3.5 trillion in assets under administration, becomes the first global servicing provider to connect to the platform. Fund managers using Apex’s Digital Liquidity & Distribution Service, known as Apex Digital 3.0, will be able to access DMI through a single gateway for managing investors at scale.  The system integrates directly with LSEG’s Workspace platform, which reaches more than 400,000 users globally, providing visibility to a broad investor base while maintaining privacy and suitability controls. Dr Darko Hajdukovic, Head of Digital Markets Infrastructure at LSEG, said the partnership “represents a significant step toward digitising private markets”, creating a “secure, efficient, and scalable ecosystem” that brings fund managers and investors closer together. Apex Group founder and chief executive Peter Hughes believes private markets have lacked the connectivity needed to efficiently access global capital pools.  He said the collaboration automates the investor lifecycle and establishes the “digital foundation for future blockchain- and AI-enabled connectivity”, positioning the platform as next-generation infrastructure for private markets. The service is expected to go live in the first half of 2026. The post LSEG And Apex Group Partner To Connect Private Funds With Digital Markets Infrastructure appeared first on LeapRate.

Standard Chartered and B2C2 have entered a strategic partnership aimed at improving how institutional clients access digital asset markets, combining regulated banking infrastructure with deep crypto liquidity. The collaboration links Standard Chartered’s global banking rails and settlement capabilities with B2C2’s spot and options liquidity.  It is said to be designed to reduce friction in fiat-to-crypto flows and give asset managers, hedge funds, corporates and family offices more reliable market access. Standard Chartered explained that the initiative reflects the rapid growth of institutional adoption across Asia and globally, as demand rises for regulated channels into an emerging asset class.  Through the agreement, B2C2’s clients will gain future direct connectivity to the bank’s network, allowing faster settlement and more predictable execution. Luke Boland, Head of Fintech, Asia at Standard Chartered, stated that the partnership supports the move of digital assets “from the periphery to the core of global finance”, adding that the bank aims to provide “regulated, scalable market linkage without compromising execution or risk management.” B2C2 chief executive Thomas Restout feels that Standard Chartered’s global reach and regulatory track record make it a strong strategic counterpart. He said the firms are “building a durable connectivity layer between traditional finance and the digital asset ecosystem” as institutional engagement accelerates. The post Standard Chartered And B2C2 Partner To Expand Institutional Access To Digital Assets appeared first on LeapRate.

Trading Technologies (TT) and Enmacc have agreed a strategic tie-up aimed at combining their exchange-traded and bilateral OTC energy trading capabilities into a unified workflow for European market participants. The firms will integrate Enmacc’s bilateral trading venue and RFQ system with TT’s global execution platform, allowing users to move seamlessly between listed derivatives, spot energy markets and OTC contracts.  The partnership is designed to eliminate fragmented processes in one of Europe’s most complex trading environments. TT said the collaboration will give clients the ability to manage bilateral credit risk with greater precision while distributing liquidity instantly through Enmacc’s network. Enmacc’s “alpha” agentic trading technology will be linked with TT’s execution tools to support faster price discovery and improved order management. “Enmacc has built an incredible footprint across the European energy landscape… There is a natural synergy between our technology,” commented Alun Green, TT’s EVP for futures and options. Enmacc chief executive Jens Hartmann said the deal aligns with the firm’s ambition to “redefine OTC markets by providing flexibility, intelligence and front-to-end digital trading workflows”, adding that TT’s global distribution network would offer clients a powerful alternative to legacy systems. The partnership is expected to enhance access for municipal utilities, commercial energy users and other institutions seeking streamlined OTC–exchange connectivity. The post Trading Technologies and Enmacc Form Partnership to Link OTC and Exchange Markets appeared first on LeapRate.

CME Group plans to launch a suite of financially settled Single Stock futures this summer, offering exposure to more than 50 of the largest U.S. companies, including Alphabet, Meta, NVIDIA and Tesla, subject to regulatory approval. The exchange operator said the contracts will give investors an alternative way to take positions on individual equities, with the capital efficiencies and margining benefits associated with futures rather than holding shares outright.  The products will track constituents across the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000. Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equities, FX and alternative products, stated that the rollout would provide “a simpler, more cost-effective way to take a view on a stock”, while enabling institutional and retail participants to hedge price moves. The announcement comes amid continued growth in equity derivatives usage. CME Group reported several record figures in 2025, including futures and options average daily volume of 7.4 million contracts and record open interest of 9.8 million contracts. Futures open interest averaged 5.6 million contracts, up 19% year-on-year. The new contracts will be listed on and governed by CME rules, with further details expected closer to launch. The post CME Group to Launch Single Stock Futures Covering Over 50 Major U.S. Names appeared first on LeapRate.

Interactive Brokers has broadened its digital asset offering with the addition of nano Bitcoin and nano Ether futures from Coinbase Derivatives, introducing both monthly and perpetual-style contracts that can be traded around the clock. The broker said the products, now available on its global platform, give eligible clients a regulated way to manage cryptocurrency exposure with lower capital requirements and more granular position sizing.  The contracts represent 0.01 Bitcoin and 0.10 Ether, making them significantly smaller than standard futures and aimed at widening participation in crypto-linked markets. Interactive Brokers emphasised the benefits of perpetual-style futures, which are designed to track spot cryptocurrency prices without the need for frequent contract rolls.  “Perpetual-style crypto futures have become popular with traders because they provide long-dated exposure and greater flexibility,” commented chief executive Milan Galik. The move continues the firm’s strategy of integrating traditional securities and digital assets within a single platform, giving clients access to more than 170 markets worldwide. Coinbase Institutional co-chief executive Greg Tusar said the collaboration was intended to “lower the barrier to entry and give more investors the ability to engage with digital assets in a secure and regulated environment.” Eligibility to trade the contracts will depend on local rules, with some jurisdictions placing limits on access to crypto derivatives. The post Interactive Brokers Expands Crypto Derivatives Access with Coinbase Nano Futures appeared first on LeapRate.

Data disappointment ahead of the event January ADP private payrolls number came in much lower than expected at 22,000 (vs 46,000 forecast [37,000 previous]). While its correlation with government figures is seldom observed, it is worth noting that it aligns with softer metrics recently released. The December JOLTS Job Openings cooled to 6.5 million vacancies, with the quits rate remaining around historical lows of 2.0%. Hiring has also remained unchanged. Ultimately, this suggests employers are cautious in their hiring, and workers continue to lack confidence to voluntarily leave their employment, reaffirming the ‘low hire-low fire’ stance. The January Challenger report revealed that US employers announced 108,435 job cuts, marking a substantial jump from 49,795 reported in the same month a year ago. Interestingly, January’s total is also the highest since 2009. Bear in mind that while this is an early warning signal, not all announced layoffs translate into job losses, and there is a notable lag between the announcement and the actual job loss. While we did see the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline number reverse course and jump back into expansionary territory at 52.6 (the ISM Services headline also remained in expansionary space at 53.8), the employment sub-indexes for both reveal that while the jobs market is not catastrophic, it is by no means good and hiring remains tepid, at best. This was particularly evident in Services, which dropped to 50.3 from 51.7 in December. If you look at your economic calendar’s revisions to these data, you will note that since around mid-2023, downward revisions have been commonplace. These are incredibly important to monitor. While the headline number could be positive and even beat analysts’ estimates, the persistent large downward revisions we have been seeing mean job growth has been trending south, and is currently negative according to the three-month average.  NFP trading scenarios: Neutral print: A print that aligns with market forecasts would shore up support for the Fed’s current ‘no rush’ stance, essentially aligning with the central bank’s narrative of a stabilising labour market and fully price out a March cut.  However, the language will likely emphasise that the door is open for cuts later in the year if further weakness is observed. Ultimately, this could only be moderately positive for yields and the USD, as it is not new information for market participants. Bullish print: A positive surprise, with payrolls coming in at 100,000 or higher, would suggest robust hiring and prompt a hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations, potentially pushing out a rate cut beyond June. Given the breadth of soft data and the USD remaining overstretched to the downside, this would likely offer the best risk-reward, triggering a notable move higher in yields and the USD. If unemployment remains at 4.4% or even drops to 4.3% (the minimum estimate), it should add fuel to the USD upside, I believe. A triple whammy could occur if wage growth remains at current levels or increases.  Bearish print: If payrolls come in below 30,000, unemployment ticks up to 4.5%, and average earnings miss expectations, this could weigh on yields and the USD, increasing the probability of a March or April rate cut despite inflation risks.  Conclusion The weight of evidence tilts toward downside risk. However, with USD positioning stretched to the downside and soft data well telegraphed, markets may be vulnerable to a meaningful short squeeze on any beat above 100,000.  The post US January jobs report preview: Downside risks dominate appeared first on LeapRate.