US stock markets are showing incredible resilience, even as the US starts squeezing off the only traffic hauling oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade went into effect at 10 am ET.The market is sensing this is all theatre in the lead up to some kind of deal where Iran gives up nuclear for a peace deal and the removal of sanctions. Obviously, the risk is that's overpriced and everything will fall apart.The bet seems to be that Trump doesn't want this war to continue any longer, and nor does anyone else. At the same time, the world may be underestimating how willing Iran is to continue fighting. The S&P 500 is less than 200 points from pre-war levels.The price action isn't just limited to stock markets. US Treasury yields are now slightly lower on the day, with 2s at 3.795% from a high of 3.849% shortly after the open.In FX, the US dollar gapped higher at the open but it's slowly losing those gains. Cable is now flat on the day at 1.3455 from a low of 1.3382.Oil is the clearest view on the direction of travel in markets as WTI is down to $101.37 from a high of $105.63. It's still up $4.50 on the day but well off the highs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 4.09mSales -3.6% vs +2.7% priorMedian price $408,800, up 1.4% y/yInventory 4.1 monthsThe National Association of Realtors' existing home sales series measures the annualized transaction volume of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, based on closing data from multiple listing services. Because closings typically lag contract signings by 30 to 60 days, the data reflect buying decisions made one to two months earlier, making it a useful but somewhat lagging gauge of housing demand.The U.S. resale market spent much of 2025 constrained by elevated mortgage rates and the persistent "lock-in effect," as homeowners with sub-4% pandemic-era mortgages remained reluctant to list. Conditions improved modestly in the second half, culminating in a 5.1% surge in December to an annualized pace of 4.35 million units — the highest level in nearly three years. January 2026 sharply reversed that momentum, with sales initially reported down 8.4% to 3.91 million units, though the figure was later revised up to a 5.9% decline and a 4.02 million pace. NAR attributed some of the weakness to severe winter weather across much of the country.February brought an unexpected rebound. Sales rose 1.7% to a 4.09 million annualized rate, well above consensus expectations of 3.89 million. Three of four Census regions posted gains, led by an 8.2% jump in the West, while the Northeast fell 6.0%. The median sale price edged up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, marking the 32nd consecutive month of annual price increases, though the pace of appreciation has moderated. Inventory rose 2.4% to 1.29 million units — 3.8 months of supply — still well below pre-pandemic norms. NAR's Housing Affordability Index climbed to 117.6, its highest since March 2022, supported by lower mortgage rates and wage gains outpacing home prices. Still, first-time buyers accounted for just 34% of transactions, well short of the 40% share considered indicative of a healthy market. The near-term outlook hinges on whether improving affordability can offset persistent supply constraints and renewed uncertainty around inflation and long-term Treasury yields. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market is sensing a deal where Iran gives up nuclear and gets basically everything else it's asking for. The thinking is that Trump wants a way out and can't have the Strait closed for much longer.The latest report is from the New York Post and said that Iranian officials are studying abandoning uranium enrichment for ending the war. Now that's a dubious source and unlikely to be from Iran but it has helped to boost sentiment. US stocks nearly retraced to unchanged on the day.In any case, surely Iran has 'studied' this as it's been a US demand for more than a decade.Update: The skepticism around this was justified as the reporter is now saying it's "nothing new".Iranian officials are still considering the US proposal to end the war, centered around giving up uranium enrichment. One thing affecting why Iran couldn’t make a deal while US was in Islamabad: while Vance called Trump 6+ times, Iranians could not call their final decision-maker back in Tehran due to security risks — and likely would have had to return home to discuss an agreement in person, a Pakistani analyst told me....This took off unnecessarily, and now I have a responsibility to clarify. All I meant was: 1) The proposal centered on Iran giving up its nuclear program -- that we knew from Vice President JD Vance on Sunday. 2) It's still a possibility that Iran could accept that point. None of this is new (which is why I haven't published anything on it.) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

OPEC is out today with its latest forecasts and what's notable is the lack of changes.For both 2026 and a whole and 2027, they've left demand forecasts unchanged despite the rise in oil prices. For Q2 of 2026, they have lowered it to 105.07 vs 105.57 mbpd previously. The small drop illustrates how inelastic oil demand is.In terms of output, OPEC+ said crude output averaged 35.06 mbpd in March, down 7.70 mbpd from February due to the war in Iran. That number likely underestimates the impact as most countries had storage space at the start of the war. Those tanks are now filled and production has been curtailed. Normally, about 20 bps of oil flows through Hormuz and that's now less than 1 mbpd. However Saudi Arabia fired up a 7 mbpd pipeline to go west to the Red Sea and that's operating near capacity now, despite a recent attack. There are some other pathways as well but the overall impact is in the 12 mbpd range and that compounds every day.The good news at the moment is that negotiations appear to be ongoing despite JD Vance leaving. It's going to be extremely tough to get the Strait back open and a lasting peace but it's ultimately in everyone's best interest so that's what the market thinks will happen.S&P 500 futures are down just 0.4%.WTI crude oil is up $6.87 to $103.44 from a high of $105.63. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +4.8%Non-residential -24.0%Residential +1.7%This drop was mostly the result of quirks as institutional permits were halved in the month. Often times these are lumpy things like hospitals. When you look at commercial alone, it fell 8%, which also isn't great.The surprise is that residential continues to hold up despite high interest rates and falling home prices in much of Canada. More recently, the government proposed waiving sales tax on new homes and that could drop the price 8 percentage points, which will likely lead to a meaningful uptick.A separate report released from StatCan showed travel and more Canadians are now flying overseas than to the US for the first time. Notably, Canadian auto trips to the USA were down 34.9% in March compared to 2024.For background on the permits data, Statistics Canada's building permits series is a key leading indicator of construction activity, capturing the value of permits issued for new buildings, renovations, and alterations across roughly 2,400 municipalities representing 95% of the national population. Because permits precede actual construction spending, the data offer an early read on investment trends in both the residential and non-residential sectors.In January 2026, the total value of building permits rose $607 million, or 4.8%, to $13.3 billion. On a constant-dollar basis (2023=100), the increase was 4.3% month-over-month and 0.8% year-over-year. The gain followed a volatile stretch that included a 13.2% decline in November 2025 and a 6.8% rebound in December.Non-residential intentions drove the January increase, rising 9.4% to $5.4 billion, led by a $356.8 million jump in the industrial component — the largest monthly gain since July 2024. Institutional permits also climbed, supported by a major medical-facility approval in the Toronto CMA valued at over $800 million. Commercial permits, however, fell $128.5 million.On the residential side, permits edged up $143 million to $8.0 billion, with single-family values rising $222.3 million to $2.7 billion while multi-unit permits dipped $79.3 million. A total of 25,400 dwelling units were authorized in January, down 1.8% from December, though the trailing 12-month count of multi-family units authorized reached 256,500 — up from 241,800 in the prior period — a signal that the medium-term pipeline for higher-density housing continues to expand. Investors should note that permit issuance does not guarantee construction will proceed, particularly in an environment of elevated financing costs and trade-policy uncertainty. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The blockade will be enforced in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, east of the Strait of HormuzIt will apply to all vessel traffic regardless of flagHowever, it will not impede neutral transit through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinationsBut neutral vessels may still be subject to the right of visit and search to determine cargo loadAny vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorisation is subject to interception, diversion, and captureHumanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies, and other essential goods will be permitted but subject to inspectionAs mentioned earlier in the day, it's a case now that the Strait of Hormuz will be contested as the US navy takes up presence. The headline remark might sound nice but it doesn't mean that Iran is still not in control. They very much are.As such, there are already no third party vessels passing through which means the US blockade isn't really going to be busy doing anything. They are just very much there to stop vessels to/from Iran itself. That is the main goal.So far today, shipping data only shows two oil and gas tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. However, both are linked to Iran in getting their oil out of the region before the US blockade begins. Other than that, there are no other oil and gas vessels that transited through the strait in the past day.Those are the little details which matter the most. Even if markets might not be overly focused on them, the fact remains that there has been absolutely zero progress in freeing up movement along the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:A softer risk mood to start the new week but the feeling is that it could've been worseUS president Trump reaffirms blockade on Iranian ports starting from later todayIran: No security for Persian Gulf ports if own is threatenedOil prices surge after US-Iran talks collapse over the weekendOil prices jump back above $100 after US-Iran negotiations breakdown, Trump's blockadeGold prices come under pressure after the first round of US-Iran talks fail. What's next?Rate hike bets increase after the failed US-Iran talks as energy prices remain elevatedECB's Vujcic: Energy prices still very close to baseline scenarioBOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation gradually accelerating towards targetChina new bank loans slow further in the first quarter this yearMarkets:WTI crude up 8% to $104.10US dollar a little higher across the boardMajor indices in Europe lower by 0.7% to 1.0%; S&P 500 futures down 0.6% on the dayGold down 0.8% to $4,708US 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.35%Bitcoin down 0.6% to $70,957There was much optimism last week riding on US-Iran negotiations over the weekend but it all came crashing down as the talks in Islamabad fell apart. Still, the feeling and reaction in markets today is that it could've been much worse.We are seeing the expected reaction in that oil prices are surging higher while risk trades drop lower. However, the magnitude of the moves feel rather controlled - in the sense that market players are still holding out some room for optimism. That even as the US announces that it will form its own blockade on Iranian ports starting today, which will make it tough to see negotiations enter a second round.WTI crude opened with a gap higher and is up over 8% to above $104 currently, but never really extended gains all too much.Meanwhile, equities are down but the losses are rather contained with S&P 500 futures lower by just 0.7%. In Europe, major indices are down by around 0.7% to 1.0% mostly so the look and feel is not that bad all things considered.That being said, it is still early in the day/week and oil prices could be in for a reckoning with the May futures set to expire next week. That could induce massive volatility spikes in the coming days especially if US-Iran developments fail to impress. In turn, that will spread out to broader market moves too.In FX, the dollar is leading the way as it bounces back a little from the losses last week. USD/JPY is up 0.3% to 159.80 while EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.1690 on the day. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.7035 but well off lows of around 0.6985 earlier in the day.Elsewhere, we're seeing bond yields creep back up as well with 10-year Treasury yields up by 4 bps to 4.35%. And in the commodities space, precious metals are dipping with gold down 0.8% to $4,708 and silver down 2.5% to $74.02 on the day.It is still all about headline risks and US-Iran developments as we get into the new week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

ECB's Vujcic: Energy prices still very close to baseline scenarioThe ECB baseline scenario assumed that while energy prices would spike in the short term, they would eventually stabilize. The ECB expected oil prices to peak around $90 per barrel in Q2 of 2026 before gradually declining. The adverse scenario saw prices reaching $119 per barrel, while the worst-case scenario projected oil to spike to $145 per barrel and remain persistently high.Despite the upward revision in inflation, the ECB has maintained a patient approach to avoid overreacting to the supply-side shock that is also expected to dampen economic growth.The ECB has explicitly stated it is not pre-committing to a specific rate path. Their response to the current baseline is characterized by neutrality and data-dependency. The central bank is willing to look through temporary energy spikes unless they begin to drive up wages and inflation expectations. If the baseline holds, the ECB will just keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. If the adverse or severe scenarios materialize and core inflation starts to increase along with other data like wages and inflation expectations, the ECB has signalled it is well-positioned to act and increase interest rates to keep inflation around their 2% target. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver gapped lower today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. This shouldn’t be a surprise though given the strong divergence in stances ahead of the talks.There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we don’t have any official date for another round of negotiations. The good news is that the ceasefire seems to be holding, but Trump decided to put pressure on Iran by blockading their ports. This has raised the risk of a potential breach of the ceasefire which is likely going to keep traders on edge. For now, the upside might remain capped as renewed hawkish bets on central banks will likely weigh on silver. The price action might remain mostly rangebound unless we get a new escalation or a peace deal.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver got rejected around the 78.00 handle which is acting as resistance. If the price gets there again, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 90.00 handle next.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The price got rejected around the trendline as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into new lows.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the trendline and the resistance remain the most important technical levels for now. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Before I jump into what the order flow at Nasdaq futures is showing so far today, let's briefly look at the most important development since the weekend:Geopolitical Tension and Energy MarketsGlobal energy markets are in a state of high alert following the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan. The primary sticking point remained Iran’s nuclear activities, leading U.S. officials to leave the talks early. In response, U.S. President Trump reaffirmed a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, effective today.This aggressive stance immediately impacted energy prices, as oil prices jumped back above $100 per barrel due to fears of sustained supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.Regional Security ThreatsThe situation has further deteriorated with Tehran issuing stern warnings to its neighbors and international shipping. Iranian officials stated there will be no security for Persian Gulf ports if their own maritime interests are compromised. Iran has characterized the U.S. blockade as "modern-day piracy" and has vowed to block any enemy-affiliated vessels from transiting the Strait, a move that threatens to trap global trade in what they described as "deadly whirlpools."Market & Currency ReactionsThe failure of diplomacy has sent ripples through other asset classes. While geopolitical instability often drives investors toward "safe havens," gold prices come under pressure following the initial shock, as the market recalibrates for a potentially prolonged conflict.Simultaneously, currency analysts at Credit Agricole suggest it is not yet the start of a downtrend for the dollar, as the U.S. currency remains supported by its safe-haven status and the absence of more positive geopolitical news.Global Economic BackdropOutside of the Middle East, other economic headwinds are emerging. In the East, data reveals that China’s new bank loans slowed further during the first quarter of the year. This slowdown highlights weak financing demand within the world’s second-largest economy, which continues to struggle with a housing slump and deflationary pressures, adding another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook.Nasdaq futures technical analysis today: this still looks more like a reset than a full breakdownBefore the weekend shock, Nasdaq futures had been building a healthier short-term structure. Then the geopolitical setback knocked that structure lower in one sharp move.What matters now is what happened next.Instead of extending into a clear one-way selloff, Nasdaq futures began rebuilding value step by step. That is why the current read stays modestly constructive rather than outright bearish. A true bearish takeover usually keeps pushing lower after the first break. So far, that has not happened.Market bias score: +2.5 (modestly bullish). Surprised? Well, that's what orderflow hints at.A +2.5 score does not mean Nasdaq futures are in a fresh breakout. It means the market has shown enough buyer resilience after the weekend shock to avoid a bearish reading, but not enough strength yet to claim that bulls fully control the tape again.Think of the above Nasdaq futures 23hr bar chart (to show the "daily" but also with the afterhours... try that timeframe on your own, I think you will like that new perspective) chart like a giant game of "King of the Hill." Right now, the battle was and still is happening at 24,915 (current price is 100 points above but still "in the area").Here is the simple breakdown of why that specific spot matters so much:1. The Safety Net (The Green Line)The green diagonal line is like a long-term safety net that has been catching the market every time it fell for months.The Gap: Over the weekend, the price "jumped" off a cliff and landed right on this net.The Result: So far, the net is holding. If the price falls through this line, it means the "big trend" is officially broken.2. The High-Traffic Zone (The Red POC Line)The red horizontal line at 24,915 is the Point of Control (POC).Imagine a highway where everyone stops to get gas; that’s this price level. More trading happened here than anywhere else recently.Because so many people bought or sold here in the past, they are "anchored" to this price. It acts like a floor because buyers feel it is a "fair price" and step in to stop the fall.3. The "Line in the Sand"This is the level where the Bulls (who want the price to go up) and the Bears (who want it to go down) are fighting for control.The market gapped down exactly to where the Green Net and the Red High-Traffic Zone meet. It’s the strongest support level on the chart. As long as we stay above it, the uptrend is technically still alive, but it's "breathing heavy."Does this level feel like a solid place to look for a bounce, or are you worried about that red projection line pointing further down?What the hourly Nasdaq futures action says nowThe hourly sequence is one of the most encouraging parts of this Nasdaq futures setup.After the weekend reset, the market briefly pushed into a lower shock zone, but sellers did not keep driving acceptance lower hour after hour. Instead, Nasdaq futures gradually rebuilt into higher short-term shelves. That tells us demand has been willing to absorb pullbacks, even though the recovery has not yet become aggressive.For Nasdaq traders, that is an important distinction. This is not the behavior of a market that is fully breaking down. It is the behavior of a market trying to repair damage under a difficult macro headline.What the latest 30-minute Nasdaq futures bar saysThe latest 30-minute bar that just closed at 11:30 on Monday, 13 April 2026 (CEST) fits that same story.Short-term selling pressure reappeared earlier, but the newest bar did not create fresh structural damage. Nasdaq futures held their main short-term support shelf instead of slipping back into the lower weekend reset zone. That keeps the near-term Nasdaq analysis tilted toward stabilization.This does not prove a bullish breakout. It does suggest that sellers still have not converted the weekend news into a cleaner bearish trend.Nasdaq futures levels to watch todayFor today’s Nasdaq analysis, the first support zone is 25,062.5 to 25,112.5. That is the key short-term shelf Nasdaq futures have been trying to defend during the repair phase.Below that, 24,962.5 remains the more important downside line. If Nasdaq futures begin accepting back below that area, the bearish case becomes much stronger.On the upside, the first real reclaim zone is 25,237.5. Above that, the bigger overhead resistance area is 25,287.5 to 25,337.5. That is the zone bulls need to recover if they want to turn this Nasdaq futures bounce into a more convincing bullish Nasdaq move.Bullish Nasdaq scenario todayThe bullish Nasdaq scenario is straightforward.As long as Nasdaq futures keep holding above the 25,062.5 to 25,112.5 support shelf, the current repair can continue. A sustained push above 25,237.5 would tell traders that this is becoming more than just a bounce. A firmer move into 25,287.5 to 25,337.5 would make today’s Nasdaq analysis materially more bullish.In that case, the failed U.S.-Iran talks would increasingly look like a short-term shock that the Nasdaq absorbed, rather than the start of a deeper correction.Bearish Nasdaq scenario todayThe bearish Nasdaq scenario is also clear.If Nasdaq futures fail below 25,237.5 or start losing 25,112.5 and 25,062.5 again, the current rebound would begin to look fragile. A move back below 24,962.5 would be the clearest sign that sellers are regaining control and that the weekend geopolitical stress is being translated into more lasting Nasdaq weakness.For stock traders and investors, that would shift today’s Nasdaq analysis back toward neutral or slightly bearish.Final Nasdaq outlook todayThe best way to describe this market is simple:Nasdaq futures are bending, not breaking.The failed first round of U.S.-Iran talks created a negative macro backdrop, and Reuters reported that oil moved back above $100 while Wall Street futures, including Nasdaq 100 E-minis, fell early Monday. That is a real headwind for growth stocks and for broader Nasdaq sentiment. But based on the 4-hour, hourly, and latest 30-minute Nasdaq futures action, the internal market response has been more resilient than the headlines suggest. That is why today’s Nasdaq analysis remains modestly bullish rather than bearish.The main takeaway for Nasdaq traders and investors is this: the market has repaired enough to avoid a clean breakdown call, but it still needs one more clear reclaim above overhead resistance before resilience turns into real bullish control.This analysis is intended for educational and decision-support purposes only. It is not financial advice. Markets are inherently uncertain, and all trading and investing decisions carry risk.For real-time trade ideas, follow-ups, and market insights across stocks, indices, commodities, and crypto, check out the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel. Trade ideas are shared for educational purposes only and at your own risk This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend with there being no deal as both sides could not see eye to eye on a nuclear agreement. Iran is not letting up on their control over the Strait of Hormuz. And so the US is now stepping up the aggression by introducing their own blockade on Iranian ports starting later today.With the US escalating military tensions in the region, it is hard to see both sides coming back for another round of negotiations. But if that won't happen, where do we really go from here?It is either US president Trump is confident enough that they can blow Iran out of the water, quite literally, or someone has to back down and offer up a compromise of sorts. Otherwise, the existing status quo will have bigger consequences for markets in due time.So far today, the broader market reaction is more of a case that "it could've been much worse".European indices are down around 0.7% to 1.0% while S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% on the day. Those losses are not that bad, all things considered.It seems like market players are still looking to hang on to some hope that things will be resolved eventually. And that is more evident by the reaction in the oil market.I warned last week already that there will be a reckoning to come once traders realise that a deal isn't coming. And while oil prices did open with a gap higher today, there's still a massive divide to get through in trying to price match with the physical market.For now, we're seeing WTI crude trade around 8% higher today at $104.50 currently. However, the North Sea Forties crude is physically hitting a record high above $148 on the day. Typically, the gap between the two sits somewhere around $2 to $5 under normal circumstances. As such, this over $40 gap represents a war premium that will eventually need to be closed one way or another.Yes, they're both different types of crude quality but the price difference is a clear indication that there is major dislocation in the market. And eventually, that has to be resolved with either WTI crude moving up massively to close the gap or the physical market price dropping hard to "normalise".And we won't have to wait too long to find out.As a reminder, the May contract for WTI crude futures will run off by 21 April. As things stand, the market is in an extreme state of backwardation. That especially with prices for the June contract trading even lower at around $96 at the moment.It means that traders are still expecting the US-Iran conflict to settle down by next month and even more so later in the year. However, you have to think that the next one week is going to be a pure survival game more than anything else.So, it is either going to be traders wait until the last minute in hopes of better US-Iran developments (so as to cause the physical market price to plunge) or those in short positions will have to rush to scramble to buy back contracts before the cutoff date.The broader market reaction might not be that bad so far today. However, perhaps the worst is yet to come especially with likely a massive surge of volatility beckoning in the oil market in the next one week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The optimism that briefly buoyed global markets last week has vanished as traders firm up rate hike bets for major central banks following the collapse of the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. The breakdown of negotiations has reignited fears of a protracted conflict, ending the fragile hope that a resolution was within reach.WTI crude oil surged back above $100 today and Trump's announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could keep prices elevated for longer. This is keeping inflation worries at the forefront of traders' mind as a prolonged conflict and elevated energy prices could creep into broader consumer goods and services.The major central banks are in a hard neutral stance at the moment but they have opened the door for rate hikes. The problem is that a supply shock cannot be fixed with monetary tightening, which works on the demand side. In this context, rate hikes could exacerbate the slowdown in economic activity and even lead to a recession. Policymakers have emphasized that their decisions will remain data-dependent, yet the market has been quite sanguine on multiple rate hikes by the end of the year. The duration of the war has become the primary variable. As the conflict enters its second month with no diplomatic exit in sight, the risk of stagflation increases by the day. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

New yuan loans for the month of March came in at ¥2.99 trillion, missing on estimates of ¥3.4 trillion. That brings the total new bank lending in Q1 2026 to roughly ¥8.6 trillion. The total there marks a drop from Q1 2025 of around ¥9.8 trillion.Typically, the first quarter of the year is when we normally see the big credit and liquidity boost in the Chinese economy. That as the government wants to make sure financial market transmission and credit conditions are sufficient, especially with the Lunar New Year in focus.So, for the figure here to come in below what it was in Q1 last year is disappointing to say the least. It could point to a number of things though.The first being a shift in Beijing's policy focus in wanting to curb financial risks. This was very much the case a few years back as they needed to balance out between deleveraging efforts and keeping the economy running hot. However, the focus has been very much on the latter as of late as policymakers are trying their best to bolster domestic demand.As such, it is either a case of PBOC tools seeing reduced efficiency in terms of impact and/or domestic demand is not absorbing the credit push by the government and local financial institutions.I'm erring more towards the latter and the situation will not be helped if households and businesses struggle further amid surging energy prices. Besides Japan, China is another country that is hit hard from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That as they have been reliant on a decent portion of oil imports from Iran (~15%) itself over the years. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices opened higher today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. This shouldn’t be a surprise though given the strong divergence in stances ahead of the talks.There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we don’t have any official date for another round of negotiations. The good news is that the ceasefire seems to be holding, but Trump decided to put pressure on Iran by blockading their ports. This has raised the risk premium for oil prices as a potential breach of the ceasefire is going to keep traders on edge. For now, the downside remains limited until we get an official resolution and the end of the war. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil opened higher today after the failed US-Iran negotiations. The price will likely continue to trade in this wide range unless the war escalates again or we finally get a peace deal. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price fell into the lower bound of the channel again on Friday which is where the buyers have been stepping in since last week. Right now, we don’t have clear levels where to lean on, so if we get another pullback into the bottom trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in again. The sellers, on the other hand, will have a much better risk to reward setup around the upper bound of the channel if the price gets there. For now, it remains a buyers’ market.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor counter-trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers might lean on it with a defined risk above it to extend the pullback into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the upper bound of the channel. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

No security for Persian Gulf ports if own is threatenedEnemy-affiliated vessels won’t pass through HormuzUS restrictions on vessel movements are illegal and piracyIran has issued a warning following Trump's announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, declaring that any threat to its maritime interests will result in a collapse of regional shipping safety. An Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson characterized the US strategy as a "permanent mechanism" for destabilization, asserting that if the security of Iran’s own Persian Gulf ports is compromised, no other port in the region will remain secure.The Islamic Republic further clarified its operational stance by stating that enemy-affiliated vessels will no longer be permitted to transit the Strait. Iranian military officials emphasized that the Strait remains under their full sovereign control, and while they maintain a commitment to legitimate international trade, they will decisively block any traffic linked to those enforcing the blockade. This move is seen as a direct counter-maneuver to US Central Command’s intent to intercept ships entering or exiting Iranian coastal areas.Iran condemned the US restrictions on vessel movements in international waters as a flagrant violation of international law, describing the blockade as a form of modern-day "piracy". They warned that these "illegal acts" would be met with a response signalling that the Iranian Navy and Revolutionary Guard are prepared to implement their own restrictive measures to defend their economic and territorial integrity.China's Foreign Ministry urged both sides to remain calm and exercise restraint as the diplomatic efforts continue. UK PM Starmer just expressed his objection to the US blockade and reiterated that whatever the pressure, the UK won't be dragged into this war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Credit Agricole was already skeptical about any positive developments from US-Iran talks and their call was vindicated after seeing how things transpired over the weekend. The negotiations broke down and the US is now placing their own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. It is already seeing oil prices race above $100 to start the new week, with fears it could get worse.As for the dollar, it is sitting higher across the board but the gains are not all too impressive just yet. It could be a case of markets still trying to hang on to whatever optimism that is left. However, Credit Agricole noted at the end of last week that we're not quite at a juncture in witnessing a reversal to the dollar trend just yet."We doubt that the latest FX price action is the beginning of a downtrend for the USD, however. This is because of two considerations: (1) there is still a huge amount of uncertainty in the Middle East, suggesting that the conflict is far from resolved and delaying any normalisation of the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; and (2) a sustained decline of global energy prices remains a distant prospect and would suggest that the economies of energy importers like the Eurozone are still to experience the negative consequences from the energy supply shock triggered by the war.This could mean that demand for the safe-haven USD may not weaken significantly further and could undermine the appeal of EUR-denominated assets for example."EUR/USD opened with a gap down today but is still keeping close by around the confluence of its key daily moving averages at the 1.1670-90 region. Dollar bulls will have to breach below the key technical region to establish a stronger foothold in chasing the downside momentum this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold opened lower today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. I don’t think anybody sane expected them to reach an agreement on the first round given the strong divergence in proposals. There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we don’t have any official date for another round of negotiations. The good news is that the ceasefire seems to be holding, but Trump decided to put pressure on Iran by blockading their ports. This has raised the risk of another escalation and the resumption of the war which is going to keep markets on edge. In the meantime, the hawkish bets on central banks returned and that is weighing on gold prices. The price action might remain mostly rangebound until we get some new catalyst. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is consolidating below the 4,800 level. The only clear resistance we have here is the trendline around the 5,000 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum. We have now a downward trendline defining the pullback. We can expect the sellers to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the downward trendline to extend the pullback into the 4,553 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the downward trendline to pile in for a rally into the 5,000 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, the price filled the gap which is now acting as resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the downward trendline in case the price extends above the resistance. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the downward trendline to gain more conviction and target new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japanese economy, prices moving roughly in line with BOJ forecastsFinancial markets are seeing unstable movements due to conflict in the Middle EastRising oil prices are weighing on Japan's economy due to worsening terms of tradeIf the conflict is prolonged, it could weigh on corporate activityShould it also push up inflation expectations, that could push up underlying inflationThe conflict could put both upward and downward pressures to underlying inflationBOJ need to scrutinise the impact of the conflict and the relative uncertaintyHave to take into account the impact on the economy, prices, and related risks in guiding monetary policyThese are pretty much just some token remarks, not really offering any major hints or confirmation of their next policy step. The BOJ will deliver their next decision on 28 April with odds of a rate hike now seen at ~34%.The result of the spring wage negotiations here was meant to serve as a platform for the BOJ to deliver a rate hike this month. That as the average wage hike comes in above 5% once again this time around. That's three straight fiscal years above the key threshold, reaffirming stronger wage pressures still.However, the US-Iran conflict has complicated things for the Japanese central bank. They want to push forward with stronger inflation dynamics that are driven by stronger wages. But now with higher oil prices, cost-push inflation is being driven up and that could spill over to underlying inflation too. And that particular type of inflation driver is not the kind that policymakers want in building the foundation to firmly exit from deflation territory. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda other than maybe a couple of central bank speakers who are likely to reiterate vigilance amid the geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risk. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines after the first round of negotiations failed. I don't think anybody sane expected them to reach an agreement on the first round, but the openness for a second round is a good thing. Nonetheless, the risk now is that the ceasefire gets breached as Trump decided to put pressure on Iran by blockading their ports. The risk of an escalation and the resumption of the war will likely keep weighing on the risk sentiment.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just get the US existing home sales data which isn't going to matter for the market or the Fed, so the reaction will be muted.Again, it's all about the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz as this conflict is impacting negatively the global economy by pushing up energy prices and weighing on growth. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 and 1.1700 levels. The dollar has opened with a gap higher today after US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. So, that is still going to be the key driver of trading sentiment in the day ahead. That especially if oil prices continue to jump higher while risk trades falter as the optimism from last week continues to fade.The market reaction so far can be characterised as "it could have been worse". However, it is still early days and we might yet see things get uglier through the week. That especially with oil price futures moving closer to the May contract expiry next week, with there still being a notable gap to the physical market.But circling back to the expiries, the ones at 1.1650 could help to limit some downside price extension in European morning trade. That alongside the 100-hour moving average at 1.1661 currently. Meanwhile, the expiries at the 1.1700 level should help to place a ceiling on price action so long as markets continue to react negatively to US-Iran developments.As mentioned above though, dollar sentiment and the broader market mood will be bigger factors influencing price action this week. So, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the impact on the expiries.In any case, there's also one for USD/CAD at the 1.3900 level today. It doesn't tie much to any technical significance, with the pair now looking to bounce back after the losses from last week. The 200-hour moving average at 1.3885 will be one to watch, with a push above that allowing for buyers to seize back near-term control.That will be a testing point with the dollar trying to recover back from the drop last week. And in the absence of more positive geopolitical news, the path of least resistance this week will be to lean towards that direction.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.