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IntroductionGood morning everyone and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today.1We find ourselves in interesting times.The global economy has been fragmenting along geopolitical lines for nearly a decade, but this trend has accelerated, marking a swift transition with implications across the short, medium, and long term for economies big and small, alongside the other significant – and more familiar – economic transitions of ageing societies, a changing climate and an increasingly digitalised world. Recognising and understanding these transitions is fundamental if we are to shape policies that build economic resilience and enable households, businesses, and communities to navigate challenges and seize opportunities. In my remarks today I will provide a perspective of a small, highly open, highly globalised economy to these global shifts, albeit one that is both part of the world’s largest single market and which has particularly strong trans-Atlantic links with the US. I will conclude with some thoughts on the continuing need for a multilateral approach and taking the opportunity to create new paradigms. Finding opportunities in the face of headwindsFor Ireland, as one of those highly open and very well-connected economies, an environment of trade barriers, and policy uncertainty and unpredictability is unwelcome and entails economic costs. In 2023, almost 17 per cent of Ireland’s exports were to the US, with 36 and 12 per cent to the rest of the EU and the UK, respectively. Around a quarter of employment in Ireland is in US firms.2 So, as well as the ramifications of the wider trend towards more fragmented global trade, understanding the implications of changes in US policy have been key areas of focus for us at the Central Bank of Ireland. Some of the key findings from our analysis offer lessons of broader relevance, particularly for small, open economies.First, to understand the potential impact of US tariffs on Ireland, it is important to have a clear picture of the Irish economy. It comprises a small number of large, productive, globally oriented foreign-owned multinational enterprises (MNEs), alongside domestic Irish-owned firms that dominate employment. MNEs make up 3.2 per cent of active firms, but around one quarter of aggregate employment. However, MNEs are not homogenous. We estimate that roughly half of MNE workers are employed in non-tradable sectors, largely serving the local economy, for example in the retail and accommodation sector. This type of ‘horizontal’ foreign direct investment (FDI) is relatively insensitive to tariffs. However, the most material risk to the Irish economy comes from the other half, who use Ireland as an export platform for their global sales, serving the rest of the EU, US, and broader international markets. These firms are concentrated in sectors such as pharmaceuticals (‘pharma’) and information technology, directly exposed to tariffs and other US industrial policy choices. US-owned firms account for 70 per cent of employment in these export-oriented MNEs and over 80 per cent of capital investment. As I said earlier, Ireland’s strong links with the US stand out in an EU context: we have the highest concentration of US MNE activity of any EU country, both in manufacturing and outside manufacturing. Over the last number of months, we have looked at the potential effects of tariffs on this type of FDI, particularly in the pharmaceutical and medical devices sectors. Our analysis suggests that 15 per cent tariffs – as per the recent agreement – will reduce exports to the US. But they are not prohibitive to trade. For one thing these firms have already made huge capital investments in setting up their production facilities in Ireland. Another is that US tariffs do not diminish Ireland’s attractiveness as an export platform to the rest of the EU or other non-US destinations.3More than half of Ireland’s pharma exports are destined for the rest of the EU or other non-US countries and so are not subject to any new tariffs. In addition, while we know that US tariffs can affect the pricing of pharma products, our analysis also shows that the sensitivity of Irish pharma export volumes to tariffs is likely to be relatively low in the short-run given the highly specialised nature of pharmaceuticals produced in Ireland.Irish-owned firmsWhile MNEs understandably get a lot of attention, given they are the primary source of Ireland’s exposure to US tariffs, it is also important to examine the exposure of domestic, Irish-owned, firms. Our analysis shows that, although they are not as export and import-intensive as foreign multinationals, over 80 per cent of workers in Irish-owned firms in manufacturing, wholesale and retail participate in international trade, whether exporting or importing goods. The key difference between such exporters and MNEs is that the former are far more likely to export to our nearest neighbours geographically – the rest of the EU and the UK – rather than the US market. Only 12 per cent of Irish-owned firm exports are to the US, which is a lot smaller than the 30 percent we see in aggregate. In total, 5 per cent of employees work in Irish-owned firms that export to the US. However, Irish firms that export to the US tend to be among the most productive and geographically diversified Irish exporters. Their exports to the US account for only a third of their total exports on average, and under a tenth of their total sales, some of which are also directed to the domestic market. Taking this into account, we estimate that less than 1 per cent of workers in Irish firms are directly tied to US exporting activity. A key question is whether such firms will be able to adapt to tariffs and potentially diversify to other markets. Of course, the extent to which they have to do that will partly depend on US importers and ultimately US consumers but recent survey evidence – before the EU-US trade deal – suggests they will be able to do so.4 It found that one third of manufacturing firms in the Irish market were already taking steps to diversify towards other markets. Notably, Irish firms exporting to the US had lower production, employment, and price expectations than other exporters, but this was entirely driven by those that were not diversifying.One other notable result from this research is the two-sided nature of international trade within firms. Around 98 per cent of manufacturing exporters also import intermediate inputs. Irish firms exporting to the US import almost four times more from the US than other exporters. This highlights how interdependent global supply chains have become, and how difficult it can be to anticipate the ripple effects of tariffs and other similar policies.Projections for the Irish economyWhat does this imply for our economic projections? While the economic outlook for Ireland is not as favourable as it would have been had tariffs not been introduced, the effective tariff rates now in place covering EU-US trade are not prohibitive to trade. However, policy uncertainty remains elevated, even if it has fallen from its peak earlier in the year.Overall, the domestic economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, but headwinds persist. Continued expected growth in real disposable incomes, amid a stable labour market – labour force participation is high, and unemployment is low – supports continued growth in consumer spending. But, some signs of easing momentum are emerging and supply-side constraints to sustainable growth in the domestic economy remain prominent.Overall, our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.5The new agreement between the EU and US, although yet to be fully implemented, is expected to moderately reduce Irish growth in the medium-to-long run, driven by activity in MNE-dominated sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals and chemicals. The current tariffs of 15 per cent lead to reduction of around 1 per cent in Irish economic output relative to a no-tariff scenario over the long-term. Diverted exports to markets outside the US partially offset the direct impact of the tariffs.Consumption and particularly investment, on the other hand, both fall faster and further than GDP, as firms and households respond more rapidly to the new environment, settling close to 2.5 and 3.5 per cent respectively below the baseline. We also anticipate that tariffs will lead to a moderate structural shift, with reduced manufacturing activity and increased service sector growth as resources are reallocated in response to these global shocks. This reallocation helps to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs on goods. Longer-term, economic policymaking faces a less-integrated global economy. Geoeconomic fragmentation is one of a number of key structural changes – along with population ageing, a changing climate change, and the ongoing march of digital technologies – that the global economy will have to adapt to. In the case of Ireland, capital investment and productivity have historically accounted for around 80 percent of Irish economic growth.6 So, in fact, the main risk for Irish economy from this fragmentation is lower investment flows. A geopolitical shift towards ‘friend-shoring’ in the EU could potentially help compensate any reduction in future investment by US MNEs, although our research suggests that this regionalisation of economic linkages is likely to be inflationary and could weaken economic growth across the euro area.7The Euro areaGeoeconomic fragmentation of course does not just impact Ireland. In the case of the euro area, it poses several risks to the inflation and growth outlook. As US tariffs are global in nature, there is the potential that trade diversion is stronger than the current (rather limited) effect assumed in the latest ECB staff projections. Scenario analysis suggests that this would have only a mild effect on the euro area, with increased exports to the US offset by weaker exports to China and the rest of the world. Apart from diverting to different markets, Chinese firms could also lower their export prices to offset the effect of US tariffs. In this scenario, an increase in (cheaper) Chinese imports has a large negative impact on inflation and growth.8And of course, there is the possibility that tariffs may induce bottlenecks as firms restructure their global supply chains. A scenario resembling pandemic-era disruption would see inflation rise considerably, when accounting for input-output linkages through production networks, but have a minimal effect on growth. As for our current monetary policy, at our last meeting in September, my colleagues and I on the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged. We continue to be in a good place with the disinflationary process behind us, the European economy showing resilience and inflation where we want it to be. Real euro area GDP growth is projected to average 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1 per cent in 2026 and 1.3 per cent in 2027. Surveys suggest the economy maintains positive underlying momentum. While the trade agreement with the US has reduced uncertainty somewhat, the overall impact of the change in the global policy environment will only become clear over time. Risks remain that renewed trade tensions could further dampen exports, investment, and consumption. By contrast, higher than expected defence and infrastructure spending and productivity-enhancing reforms would add to growth. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. In particular, we will base our interest rate decisions on our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Policy recommendations Where does that leave us? The Irish economy faces the current challenges from a position of relative strength, which policymakers can harness in supporting the economy to adapt over both the short and long run. Ireland has benefitted from decades of FDI-led growth, and its interconnections with the US economy and its membership of the EU have led to higher productivity, investment, and human capital. This, along with Ireland’s open, flexible, and skilled labour force, creates strong conditions to adapt to geoeconomic shifts. Nonetheless, a slowdown in inward investment flows would reduce Ireland’s long-run growth potential. Global fragmentation could also affect other long-term goals, such as the transition to net zero, by restricting the supply of critical inputs for new technologies.It also brings to the forefront the need for clear priorities in Irish and European economic policy. First and foremost, policy needs to focus on the fundamentals, managing the short term while planning for the medium term, ensuring our frameworks are fit-for-purpose and learning the lessons of the past while preparing for the future. Successful economies need stable and sustainable macroeconomic frameworks and sound fiscal and monetary policies, along with stable and well-regulated financial systems and well-functioning markets.For Ireland, against a backdrop of strong economic and population growth, continuing to attract investment will require a particular focus on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing as the Government set out in its Budget last week. Of course, we shouldn’t just stop at the border. Ireland is part of the world’s largest single market and there is untapped potential both in it integrating further into that market  as well as  in overall European economic activity.9 One year on from Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta’s reports on the future of the European economy, it remains essential that we make progress on their recommendations, if we want to tap – and indeed realise – that potential.  As the world’s largest trade bloc – accounting for around 15.8 per cent of world trade10 – deepening the Single Market offers a hedge against broader global trade fragmentation, helping to reduce an over-reliance on external dependencies, fostering innovation, and promoting stable growth. That includes realising the potential of the EU’s capital markets and unlocking the almost €12 trillion in savings and cash deposits held by Europeans.11The need for collective solutions in the face of global challengesAt this point in the twenty first century, it is undoubtedly the case that the most significant headwinds we face today, be they from geoeconomic fragmentation or managing the challenges of a changing climate or harnessing digitalisation and innovation, are global in nature and demand collective solutions. This is precisely where organisations such as the Atlantic Council and in fact the IMF – at the start of its Annual Meetings this week - have important roles to play. The Council’s mission – to promote constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs and provide a forum for navigating the economic and political changes defining our times – is precisely what we need today so that we help to shape policy choices and strategies that create a more free, secure, and prosperous world.The IMF’s convening power brings us all to the same table, offering a vital forum for dialogue and coordinated action among its members. It’s not a theoretical exercise but the essential work of managing a more uncertain world, one that requires us to see past domestic concerns to the broader interconnected reality. The IMF’s role of promoting stability and cooperation for every single member and acting as an independent and trusted advisor is more critical now than ever, and I have long appreciated its dedication to providing candid assessments across the globe. st is earned through transparency, accountability, and a demonstrated credible commitment to act in, and serve, the best interest of society. I value this clear-eyed view and the stability it underpins.ConclusionSmall, open economies value engagement with global institutions to address shared challenges. Whether we are central bankers or government officials, we value the relationships – whether international financial institutions or trans-Atlantic councils – that support our commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, collaboration and understanding. Diversity of experience and diversity of thought strengthens us both as institutions and as individuals. We need to recognise that the world which we grew up with has changed and that, coupled with the ongoing transitions we face, more change is guaranteed. I suggest that our energies should be tilted towards the challenge of creating the new world ahead of us rather than the comfort of preserving the old. The stage is now set for building new relationships, adopting new frameworks, and creating new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit. I know that Irish institutions are committed to international cooperation, and we will continue to advocate for – and play a key role in – developing the new multilateral order that our economies need and our communities want.1 Thanks to Cian Ruane, Thomas Conefrey, Conor O’Shea, and Martin O’Brien for their help in preparing these remarks.2 CSO Publication: Business in Ireland3 Signed Article: On the Fault Line? The Irish economy in a time of geoeconomic fragmentation - CBI (2025) - See Box C “Multinational Expansion in the Era of Trade Conflicts” based on the model in Garetto, Oldenski, Ma and Ramondo (2025). 4 Survey data on exporter behaviour is sourced from a special module of the monthly European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) sponsored by the Central Bank of Ireland. See figure 10 in Signed Article Q3 2025.5 Quarterly Bulletin 3 20256 Conefrey et al., 2024.7 Clancy, Smith and Valenta, 2024 8 Scenario analysis conducted as part of the ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area - September 20259 See President Lagarde’s remarks at the Bank of Finland’s 4th International Monetary Policy Conference.10 The EU’s role in global trade11 Governor Makhlouf remarks at NABE  

Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf spoke today at the Atlantic Council during IMF World Bank Week in Washington DC.Speaking ahead of the event, Governor Makhlouf said: “Ireland is a small, highly open, highly globalised and very well-connected economy in an increasingly fragmented world.   An environment of trade barriers and policy uncertainty and unpredictability has economic costs for us. Our analysis suggests that 15 per cent tariffs will reduce our exports to the US. But they are not prohibitive to trade, and our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.“This serves to highlight that while the US market is important for Ireland, it is far from our only one.  “Ireland is part of the world’s largest single market. We are facing the current challenges from a position of relative strength, having benefitted from decades of FDI-led growth.  We have a flexible and skilled labour force, strong economic and population growth, and a welcome, intense focus from Government on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing. “However, it remains essential that Ireland integrates further into the EU’s single market and for the Single Market itself to deliver on its potential as set out in last year’s recommendations from Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta.”“New ways of working and new relationships are vital in the face of the headwinds we see globally.  “That is why institutions like the Atlantic Council and the IMF are important.  We in Ireland value our engagement with global institutions and we value relationships that support our commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, collaboration and understanding.“The IMF’s convening power brings us all to the same table, offering a vital forum for dialogue and coordinated action. It’s not a theoretical exercise.  It is the essential work that helps us see past our domestic concerns to the broader interconnected reality.”Commenting on current monetary policy, Governor Makhlouf said: “We continue to be in a good place with the disinflationary process behind us, the European economy showing resilience and inflation where we want it to be.” “We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”Concluding, Governor Makhlouf said: “We need to recognise that the world which we grew up with has changed and that more change is guaranteed. “I suggest that our energies should be tilted towards the challenge of creating the new world ahead of us rather than the comfort of preserving the old. The stage is now set for building new relationships, adopting new frameworks, and creating new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit. I know that Irish institutions are committed to international cooperation, and we will continue to advocate for – and play a key role in – developing the new multilateral order that our economies need and our communities want.”ENDSFurther InformationRead the full text of Governor Makhlouf’s speech on our website. 

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The Central Bank has reduced the Insurance Compensation Fund levy from 2% to 1% as of the 1st January 2026, marking the first change in the levy in 14 years.The change will positively affect a large cohort of consumers with non-life insurance policies and the Central Bank expects firms to act in the best interest of those consumers by ensuring any reductions on eligible policies are passed on without delay.The ICF remains an important fund, providing protection to certain Irish non-life policyholders in the event of their insurer going into liquidation. The Central Bank of Ireland today (3rd October 2025) announced a reduction in the Insurance Compensation Fund Levy to 1%, which will take effect from 1st January 2026. This marks the first change in the levy in 14 years since 2012, a reduction of 1% from the maximum allowable 2% under the Insurance Act 1964. The change will affect many customers with non-life insurance policies such as home and motor insurance (if the motor insurance firm is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland). The fund is collected by the Revenue Commissioners and used to pay compensation to consumers for claims on failed insurance firms. Deputy Governor Mary-Elizabeth McMunn said: “The Insurance Compensation Fund is an important fund, the purpose of which is to protect eligible policy holders in the event of their insurer going into liquidation. The changes announced today reflect the financial position of the fund and the reduction in the levy will positively impact a large cohort of policyholders in Ireland.“It is the responsibility of insurance firms to pay the correct levy and it is important that they are ready to implement the change from 1st January 2026. We expect firms which charge this levy to act in the best interests of consumers by ensuring that any reductions on eligible policies are passed on immediately. We have been engaging with the Department of Finance, Insurance Ireland, the Revenue Commissioners and relevant insurers on this change, and will continue to monitor the fund and carry out another annual review next year.” The Central Bank of Ireland expects firms to act in the best interests of consumers. Firms must now ensure their systems and processes are up to date to implement the change from 1st January 2026.For firms which explicitly pass the levy on to policyholders as separate charge listed within their documentation, the Central Bank’s expectation is that the reduction is reflected in the policy from 1st January 2026 onwards. This also applies to current policies which are paid in instalments into 2026; where the levy charge is explicitly stated within the policy, the levy should be updated to reflect the reduction from 1st January 2026. The Central Bank of Ireland also recommends no further request for credit for the fund from the Minister for Finance is required at this time. The reduction reflects that a rate of 1% is likely to be sufficient to repay the outstanding loan balance and cover anticipated calls on the fund in 2026, taking into account companies which are already in administration or liquidation. View further information.ENDSFurther informationThe Central Bank of Ireland is responsible for assessing and administering the Insurance Compensation Fund, and monitors the Fund throughout the year.  The annual review of the Fund involves an assessment of the size of the fund, expected Levy collections, funding requirements and reviews whether the Levy needs to remain in place and at what percentage it should be set. In the Bank’s most recent annual assessment of the financial position of the Fund it was determined that a 1% levy applied in 2026 should be sufficient to repay the outstanding loan balance due to the Exchequer and cover expected future compensation to Irish policyholders that have valid claims.The reduction from 2% to 1% is estimated to reduce the amount collected by the levy by c. €57m across the whole sector. In terms of the reduction for consumers this will depend on the precise policy and premium paid. By way of example, the average motor premium for H1 2024 was c. €616 (National Claims Information Database private motor report) and so a 1% reduction would equate to c. €6 for consumers. Consumers may also have a number of affected policies (e.g. motor insurance and home insurance).View more information on the levy.Kelly Horn kelly.horn@centralbank.ie / 086 210 3359Media@centralbank.ie

Good morning everyone, and many thanks to Séamus and Michael for the invitation to speak to the Compliance Institute’s Annual Conference this year.1Given the important role compliance professionals play in ensuring the financial system is well run, you are key stakeholders for Central Banks and Regulators, and so I am delighted to address you all this morning.The theme of today’s conference, “Compliance leadership in an uncertain world”, is very appropriate one. And from the breadth and complexity of topics on the agenda today it is easy to see why!Indeed uncertainty and complexity are a challenge that all leaders are having to navigate, and so today I would like to share some perspectives on this uncertain world.I will first set out some of the macro challenges facing the financial sector, before delving a little deeper in terms of what that means for you and for us. And lastly, I will touch on the turning regulatory cycle, including the simplification agenda, given it is regulators and compliance professionals who are the coalface of implementing the regulatory and supervisory framework.Risk EnvironmentBut first, the risk environment we are all operating in.I think we can all agree that we are living through challenging and uncertain times.Times of great geo-political change, and potentially of great geo-economic fragmentation. But also times of huge, and indeed rapid, technological progress, reshaping our daily lives.Both of these could have profound implications for our economy and our financial system, and come alongside other great structural shifts, including an escalating, and in many ways a potentially existential, climate challenge. While we have all been taking about geo-political, technological and climate change for a number of years now, the pace and scale of that change has clearly accelerated this year. Once tail risks and events are now looking much less unlikely; and we are all having to navigate a transition to a potentially structurally very different world. Navigating such change is not something new for us, and indeed both regulators and industry have built up plenty of muscle memory responding to crises. Probably more muscles and more memories than we would wish to have! Like many in this room my career has spanned the financial crisis, the euro crisis, Brexit and Covid – and for a number of years now responding to an increasingly volatile and risky world. Lessons learned and changes made throughout that time have helped us all navigate the recent series of shocks – facing them with agility, better data, stronger risk management capabilities, and with a system bolstered and buffered by the resilience we have collectively built over the last decade.The depth, breadth and pace of change underway, however, leaves no room for complacency. This is why vigilance, resilience and agility would be my watch words for the period ahead.And I would reiterate what I said in my first speech as Deputy Governor this year: We need to be prepared for both short term shocks and long term shifts, for novel as well as traditional risks, and for resilience, both financial and non-financial, to be tested in different ways.2Managing risks and seizing opportunities – the long and the short of itBut let me unpack that a little, and speak about responding to change and challenge, both in terms of seizing any opportunities while managing the risks. For it is of course the financial system’s job to both take and manage risk, and indeed there are risks from not taking your opportunities.Part of the challenge, however, is that what we are dealing with is both cyclical and structural, meaning we are managing both significant risks and uncertainty in the near term, as well as adapting to an accelerated transition to a longer term different world.Let me take some examples, around these geo-economic, digital and climate transitions.In terms of geopolitics, we have all been navigating the short term shocks and shifts taking place this year, and indeed geopolitical risk has been a focus of supervisors for a number of years.For me it is a classic example of where macro meets micro, and in our Regulatory and Supervisory Outlook this year we set out a framework for thinking about geopolitical risk and its transmission channels.3 This includes the impact of risks crystallising through the traditional risk channels we grapple with, from credit, liquidity and market risks, to business model and operational risks.  As well as ensuring you are managing the risks to your consumers in the face of these macro-economic headwinds. There is also the clear risk that regulatory fragmentation follows geo-political ones, and the risks from divergent regimes and lowering of requirements is something I know is on your minds too.4But in addition to an unprecedented short term policy uncertainty at a global level, we are also faced with the potential continuation of a recent trend towards geo-economic fragmentation over the longer term.While both of these are obviously a challenge for a small open economy like Ireland – and one we are very much alive to, our commitment to open markets and our international financial sector is for me an enduring strength, one which can help us seize opportunities even in the midst of fragmentation. In terms of digitalisation, the speed at which it is moving makes it feel sometimes like the short and the long term are rapidly converging. And while we are all grappling with the operational risks and challenges we are facing in an increasingly technological financial sector, as I have said before the digital transition, done right, has immense potential – delivering better outcomes for consumers, investors, and the wider economy.5 And so it is crucial that you are ready to capitalise on that potential. That you are proactively and appropriately adapting your business models, strategies and systems to do so, to make sure you and your consumers are not left behind.6 For we want the benefits of innovation to accrue to the wider system. This is something we have sought to foster through our policy, our supervision, our innovation engagement and innovation sandbox as well as our catalyst role in the field of payments.In terms of climate change, this remains a key challenge for both society as a whole as well as for the delivery of our mandate – from monetary policy, to financial stability and the safety and soundness of firms, as well as ensuring the financial system is operating in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy. While the conversation on climate may have abated, the risks certainly have not. Nor have the necessary actions which we all must take. Indeed the challenge looks only to be growing.In the short run, we are already seeing the impacts from more frequent extreme weather events; and we are becoming increasingly aware of the challenges and risks from tipping points.7 Supervisors and firms have rightly become more focused on understanding the climate and environmental risks to firms, which can come in many different forms.8 And in the long run, while there are obviously significant risks from climate change, there are also opportunities from the transition to a net zero economy, and the financial sector has a big role to in play mobilising private finance as part of this solution. We often talk about avoiding pro-cyclical affects, and lending through the economic cycle – in good times and bad. In that regard, I would suggest it is in the long term interest of the sector, and us all, to look through the political cycle on climate change, to manage the risks and seize the opportunities as we look to meet this long term challenge facing the world.Responding to uncertainty and changeSo, we are all swimming in uncertainty, navigating complexity and riding the waves of rapid change – a theme that also came out in your recent survey of heads of compliance, and one which I am sure many will empathise with.9 But how do we respond? Well there are no easy answers, but let me share some perspectives.First, is to recognise that in such times, the roles of regulators, supervisors and compliance officers are all the more important (though also all the more challenging!).For amidst uncertainty and rapid change it is crucial we stick to, and deliver, the fundamentals, which for me start with effective risk management and governance, underpinned by a strong ethical culture and driven by a proactive approach to managing the risks and uncertainties facing your business, and your customers. This of course includes actively considering those customer’s interests in the changing and uncertain world.Compliance, including policies and risk management, but also its role in culture, education, and challenge, are a crucial part of these fundamentals and I would suggest the voice of compliance is increasingly important in this environment.And so it is important for you to recognise, and to continue to execute, the leadership role compliance officers and risk professionals play in creating the right culture in regulated entities. For compliance should not be seen as a burden, nor something that needs to be ticked off, but rather as a key an enabler of well-run businesses. The best firms recognise this, they champion it through tone from the top and deliver it through their governance and their culture.For us at the Central Bank the challenging external environment re-enforces the need for us to be forward looking, risk-based, outcomes focused and proportionate, all principles of our new supervisory approach.10 As well as the need to ensure we are maximising the best use of our collective resources, while adapting to the changing world around us. This is something we have been focused on for a number of years now, recognising that in the face of these fundamental changes we cannot stand still, and to continue to deliver on our mandate in a changing world, we must change too. I would also say the regulatory framework needs to be adaptive to this changing external environment – and indeed it has been, and let me briefly take two flagship examples, one domestic and one international, to illustrate this.As you all know this year we completed our review of the Consumer Protection Code, which is the cornerstone of the Central Bank’s consumer protection regulatory framework.11 The review focused on modernising the code to reflect the provision of financial services in a modern world. For consumers, it introduced a package of protections that better reflect how they are accessing financial services in a digitalising financial system. And for firms the integrated regulatory format, and clearer articulation of their Code obligations, will help them better deliver in the best interests of their consumers. The Code is something I know there is huge support for, and I know the implementation of the updated Code will be a focus of us all in the period ahead. This is important as we want to see the new Code contributing to building trust in the financial system and for consumers to have the confidence that it will work to deliver positive outcomes for them, important in a time of such uncertainty and change.Secondly, this year saw the Digital Operational Resilience Act take effect, and I know implementing DORA has been a significant piece of work for industry and regulators alike. But I couldn’t think of a more important regulatory initiative to meet the challenges of the times, given the key role digital operational resilience plays in modern financial services, and the key external dependencies the financial system has in terms of technology and outsourcing.As such the importance of this framework, the requirements it introduces and the information it provides cannot be overstated. While the submission of registers of information was a significant task – indeed the first of its kind, a complex exercise and there are learnings, it was also crucial one and will provide key information on the ICT third-party service providers to regulated entities, and those that are critical to the system.Lastly let me touch on another way we are responding to this changing external environment. In a rapidly changing and increasingly complex world communication and engagement are all the more crucial. Which is why we have put such an emphasis on being more open and engaged, improving the clarity and coherence of our communications with the sector, and deepening our relationships with our international peers.Engagement, openness and transparency is something I firmly believe in, for it delivers better policy, more effective supervision and better outcomes.While something we working on, I would say it cuts both ways. You also need to be engaging with us, asking for clarification if we are not clear, and raising issues in an open, transparent and timely manner. As a supervisor I always found open and respectful dialogue and exchange really helpful, clarifying potential misunderstandings and indeed deepening understanding on both sides. And so I  encourage my teams, and would encourage regulated firms (and indeed you in the room) to continue to engage in such dialogue.Regulatory cycle – simplification vs de-regulationLet me finish not on the economic cycle, but rather the regulatory one, given another feature of today’s uncertain and changing environment is a focus on regulation and growth.The first thing I would like to say is that regulation plays a key role in our economy and the financial system – supporting innovation, competition and productivity, while ensuring the system operates in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy, both in good times and bad.  The second is to say that in the face of the volatile and rapidly changing times facing our economy and financial sector a robust regulatory and supervisory framework is all the more important; and indeed that framework has stood up well in recent years.Having said that, given the economic challenges facing Europe, and the renewed focus on competiveness, it is understandable that there is also a renewed focus on the regulatory framework, and how it could be simplified, to reduce any unnecessary complexity and costs.While financial regulation is only one part of that focus, it is obviously a key focus for you and for us.Contrary to popular belief, regulators and supervisors want simplification. It is not in our interest to be wading through unnecessary complexity and processes, and we want to be more effective and achieve our outcomes in better and more efficient ways. As such we are keen to simplify both regulation and supervision, provided it is done in a way that does not compromise on our ability to deliver on our mandate.For this reason we at the Central Bank are serious about simplification, and are focused on it both domestically and internationally. We are engaged in many conversations on this at the ECB, across the three ESAs and in Brussels. And we are assessing our own domestic frameworks, and have asked for and received ideas from the sector. While serious about simplification, and while engaging with the sector, this does not mean that we will always agree on where, or how far, to simplify. Indeed as I have said before one person’s unnecessary burden can often be another’s important protection. Furthermore, we cannot simplify so much that we do not capture complex risks, indeed financial regulation is complex in part because financial services is complex.Nor does our seriousness about simplification mean that we have changed our minds on the important objectives we are trying to achieve. We have not. Rather we recognise, and are open to, the potential for more efficient and effective ways of achieving them.Equally, simplification cannot mean no new rules. In a world of rapid change regulation standing still risks regulation falling behind. And indeed history has shown that financial regulation not keeping pace with financial innovation, often leads to financial crises.12Lastly, as anyone involved in the regulatory process will know, simplification won’t be simple and it won’t be quick. Which is not to say that there are no quick wins, or that there aren’t simple things we can do to make a difference for you and for us. There are. And indeed we have already been delivering them, including more integrated engagement through our new supervisory approach, enhanced F&P and authorisation processes, consulting on amendments to the funds framework, and streamlining reporting requests to name but a few, and with more to come. At EU level we are also delivering, including through ECB Banking Supervision13 and at the ESAs.But as we have said before, and as the public would rightly expect of its independent Central Bank and Regulator, we will call out the risks should the legitimate aims of simplification slide into de-regulation.14 As that clearly would not be a good outcome for our economy or our citizens.You as compliance professionals have an important role to play here too. For the risks from the regulatory cycle are not just about a changing of rules, it can also relate to a culture and adherence to those rules, with weakening compliance or more of a tick box approach.So as I said before, the voice of compliance is an important one at this time, as is your continued role in embedding regulation and proactive risk management as part of the culture of a well-run firm.Conclusion Let me conclude.The external environment is a challenging one, characterised by significant uncertainty and volatility and a period of potentially rapid structural change.The sector has been weathering this change well, thanks to the resilience built over the last decade as well as improvements in Governance, compliance, risk management and culture.Given the rapid change underway and ahead, in the nature, shape and digitalisation of the global economy and financial system, it is important we remain vigilant, maintain resilience, and ensure we are agile and adapting to the changing nature of financial services, the opportunities it provides and the changing nature of resilience it implies. And lastly, there is an onus on policymakers, regulators and industry alike to heed our history, and to remember the lessons of the past.Thank you[1] Many thanks to Cian O’Laoide for his help preparing these remarks.[2] See McMunn “Shocks and shifts – regulation and supervision in a changing world” April 2025.[3] See Central Bank of Ireland Regulatory & Supervisory Outlook 2025.[4] See Compliance Institute Survey September 2025.[5] See McMunn Central Banks and innovation – delivering our mandate in a digitalising world May 2025.[6] See Madouros Catching and keeping up - payments innovation in Ireland March 2025.[7] For example se Carbon Brief Nine “tipping points” where a changing climate could push parts of the Earth system into abrupt or irreversible change.[8] For example, almost 75% of euro area banks corporate loans to are extended to companies highly dependent on one ecosystem service.  ECB Occasional Paper: Living in a world of disappearing nature: physical risk and the implications for financial stability.[9] See Compliance Institute Survey September 2025.[10] See Central Bank of Ireland: Our Approach to Supervision February 2025.[11] See Makhlouf Consumer Protection Code Review Discussion Paper.[12] See also Barr: Booms and Busts and the Regulatory Cycle July 2025.[13] See for example Donnery As simple as possible, but not simpler September 2025.[14] See also: Dear CEO Letter – Key Regulation and Supervision Priorities 2025 February 2025.

Thank you for the invitation to join you this afternoon. My remarks today will discuss the economic outlook in a period of global change and our regulatory approach in the changing environment.But before I talk about that, I’d like to touch briefly on the importance of the relationship between Ireland and the United Kingdom. In a time when fragmentation and global uncertainty are straining international relationships, the economic and social bond between the two nations is a testament to a deep and shared resilience. Everyone in this room knows the links across these islands are about much more than a market. It is a deep-rooted relationship, sector to sector, business to business, families and friendships intertwined. From the Central Bank of Ireland’s perspective, the relationship is not an abstract concept but something that’s very real. Ireland has a globally interconnected financial ecosystem that has a strong connection with its counterpart in the UK. As many of you in the financial industry know, we have an excellent relationship with our colleagues at the Bank of England, PRA and FCA, and we will continue to share information and knowledge, coordinate on supervisory standards, and assist each other in the delivery of our mandates. This strong working relationship ensures that capital flows remain secure, payment systems are resilient and that the integrity of our financial markets are maintained, not least through periods of significant change such as we are experiencing today. A changing external environmentThe global economy has been fragmenting along geopolitical lines for nearly a decade, but this trend has accelerated, marking a swift transition with implications across the short, medium, and long term, alongside the other significant, and more familiar, economic transitions of ageing societies, a changing climate and an increasingly digitalised world. Recognising and understanding these transitions is fundamental if we are to shape policies that build economic resilience, enabling households, businesses, and communities to navigate challenges and seize opportunities. International trade in goods has entered a new and profoundly unfamiliar period. Global trade is being reshaped as countries and businesses respond to tariffs directed at them.For Ireland, as an open and very well-connected economy, an environment of trade barriers coupled with policy unpredictability is unwelcome. The new agreement between the EU and the US, although yet to be fully implemented, has provided some welcome stability. In the first half of this year, the Irish economy demonstrated resilience, with robust consumption and investment, but headwinds persist. Continued expected growth in real disposable incomes, amid a stable labour market, labour force participation is high and unemployment low, supports the forecast for continued growth in consumer spending. Overall, our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.1 The question is how best to sustain what has been a positive trajectory over the last few years into the medium-to-long term. Analysis indicates an economy one per cent smaller relative to a tariff-free scenario, driven by lower investment and a shift in exports to non-US markets.2 To maintain the economic success of recent years in the face of current and more medium-term challenges, Ireland will have to focus in particular on addressing its infrastructure gaps.  Efficient infrastructure delivery, supported by enabling processes, innovative approaches and scaled investments, can enhance productivity, reduce costs, and maximise economic benefits.Regulating in a changing environmentTo state the obvious, the financial system has an important role to play here. The sector has been undergoing its own rapid change over recent years, not least as a result of technological innovation. Increasingly, we are seeing the importance of operational and cyber resilience to the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence and its use. This provides many opportunities, although if not adequately managed it can also pose many risks.When I think of our response to these changes, three things come to mind: cooperation in the face of fragmentation; adapting with the times; and always sticking to the fundamentals.First, whether it’s climate or cyber or innovation, it is clear that what we are increasingly dealing with are global changes and challenges. They are common to us all, they cannot be confined to borders, and require global cooperation if they are to be addressed effectively.I know that both Ireland and the UK are committed to international cooperation and multilateralism. For one thing, I see it reflected in the open, engaged and internationally active nature of our central banks and regulators. We and our counterparts in the UK both know that having an international financial centre entails international responsibilities, including a commitment to effective regulation, actively engaging with the international rule-setting bodies as well as supervising institutions on behalf of, and in cooperation with, other jurisdictions. These responsibilities also come with international scrutiny, be it from organisations such as the IMF, or simply other peer regulators who want assurance that their citizens are being protected when served by Irish-based firms.We embrace this responsibility. And, along with our core domestic mandate, it is why we place such importance on the proper and effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector, something that I know is also at the heart of our UK colleagues’ approach.Second in the face of rapid technological change financial regulation needs to keep up with financial innovation. And in many ways the UK has led the way in terms of responding to the innovation in financial services. We have been adapting too, becoming more future focused, and better anticipating and responding to the changes taking place in our financial system.This includes establishing an Innovation Sandbox Programme, and I expect that some of you will have engaged with both the programme and our Innovation Hub as part of your operations in Ireland. We support innovation in the financial sector and recognise the benefits it can bring. Third, navigating change is complex and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise. And, while it is important to be adaptable, in times of rapid change central banks and regulators need to remain anchored to the fundamentals and remember that no matter how novel or innovative something is, the importance of good governance, good risk management and delivering in the interests of consumers, investors and the wider economy doesn’t change.In my view regulation plays a vital role in ensuring the effective functioning of our financial system. It enables innovation, competition, and cross border activity, while ensuring the system operates in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy, both in good times and bad. Our regulatory approach at the Central Bank of Ireland is underpinned by six principles. Regulation must be forward looking, connected, proportionate, predictable, transparent and agile. These principles are increasingly relevant to meet the challenges of today as well as the opportunities and risks that are ahead of us.ConclusionAnd the opportunities are clear, as Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta set out last year, reports written for the EU, but which should be of wider interest. We need to recognise that the world we have been familiar with has changed and that,  coupled with the ongoing march of demography, digitalisation, and a warming climate, more change is ahead. I suggest that the stage is now set for us to seek new partners, build new relationships, adopt new frameworks and create new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit.At the Central Bank of Ireland, we are guided by the objective set out in our founding legislation that our “constant and predominant aim shall be the welfare of the people as a whole.”  We will remain focused on delivering the stability, resilience, and protections that consumers and the wider economy need and the public expects. Our focus will be neither to regulate for growth nor regulate for risk but to regulate for the orderly and proper functioning of financial markets so that they deliver positive outcomes for the economy and for our citizens. I wish you all well, both for the remainder of this conference and for your continued work bringing together people and businesses in our two countries.[1] Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2025[2] See On the fault line? The Irish economy in a time of geoeconomic fragmentation - Central Bank of Ireland 2025

Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Colm Kincaid spoke today (Thursday) at the Financial Services Ireland Chief Executive Roundtable.

Good morning, and thank you to Financial Services Ireland for the invitation to speak to you today. Today’s Roundtable provides an opportunity to discuss the issues that go to the heart of building a financial system that serves people and the wider economy, and responds effectively to the needs of those who depend on that system.

IntroductionMy thanks to Insurance Ireland for the invitation to attend the European Insurance Forum 2025.  I am delighted to have the opportunity to speak here today, at an event which brings together so many insurance leaders and experts.The theme of the Forum, "Resilience and Revitalisation: Shaping the Future of Insurance”, is timely as it speaks to the insurance industry’s focus on the future. For regulators too this is important as we look to better understand, anticipate and adapt in the context of the far reaching changes taking place within the economy, society and financial system globally.This is also timely in the context of the Government’s recently published Action Plan for Insurance Reform 2025-2029, which we welcome and support. In my remarks today, I would like to touch on how the Central Bank of Ireland’s approach to the regulation and supervision of the insurance sector is evolving and to reflect on some key areas of focus as we look to the future, namely:Resilience in uncertain times;Accountability, Trust and Consumer Focus; andResponsible and Ethical Innovation.  But before doing so, I think it is worth reflecting on the importance of a well-functioning and resilient insurance sector.  Supporting people, businesses and the wider economyInsurance plays a critical role in supporting businesses and individuals in navigating and mitigating risks in an uncertain and rapidly changing world. Non-life insurance provides motor, property and liability protection to communities, increasing resilience and recovery in the wake of adverse events, whilst various speciality lines of business are a key enabler of international trade and investment.Life assurance provides financial protection and stability for families and dependents, as well as providing a key mechanism for savings and investment.  Our mandate in the Central Bank of Ireland, as you will know, is that we work to ensure that the financial system operates in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy. The insurance sector is no different, and so key to us, as a regulator, is ensuring that it functions in such a way as to provide this support.  Ultimately, people and businesses should be able to access products which are suitable for their needs: be clear on what is covered, what is not, and to what extent; and be able to rely on that cover being in place, and importantly paying out, should certain risks crystallise or life events happen.    Looking to the futureIreland is home to the fourth largest insurance industry in the EU, with a significant international component.   In 2024, premiums written by Irish firms equated to €109bn, of which more than 70% related to risks outside of Ireland, with exposures spread across more than 70 countries. This is not to forget the 2,400-plus retail intermediaries operating in Ireland, despite ongoing consolidation in this market.There are new opportunities and challenges emerging for the insurance sector with which both regulators and the insurance industry must contend. The financial system today operates against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, which threaten economic growth and market stability.Digitalisation of the economy, including the growth of AI, presents both opportunities and challenges, bringing continued cyber resilience into sharp focus.Growing climate risks and ageing populations are presenting many challenges in the long and short term – and have the potential to significantly widen insurance "protection gaps".Future focused - our role and supervisory frameworkIn the context of these fundamental shifts in the environment, the Central Bank’s strategy is focused on four key safeguarding outcomes: Consumer and investor protection;Safety and soundness;Financial stability; and Integrity of the financial system. We are implementing a new supervisory approach, building on the strong foundations of our long standing risk-based and outcomes-focused approach to supervision.  In designing our new approach, we reflected on EU and global best practice while recognising also the particular strategic advantage the Central Bank has from having all elements of the central banking and financial regulation mandates in one organisation. Our new approach does not change the safeguarding outcomes we are pursuing.  However, it recognises the changing nature of the financial system, which increasingly transcends traditional regulatory distinctions such as “prudential”, “conduct”, and “anti-money laundering”, and delivers a more integrated approach to supervision, with multi-disciplinary teams working together to deliver our supervisory priorities in a more effective and efficient way.  The insurance sector will be supervised in an integrated, holistic way, in accordance with a multi-year supervisory strategy.  In addition, insurance firms that could most significantly impact on the achievement of our safeguarding outcomes will be supervised at an individual firm level.Under this new approach firms should hear one voice from the Central Bank, with more coordinated, consistent messaging and more streamlined demands across the full span of our regulatory and supervisory mandate.Importantly, under the new approach, we will: Continue to deliver an open and transparent engagement approach, to communicate clearly our priorities and areas of focus, and to listen to questions and concerns that may arise;  Remain risk-based and outcomes-focused and continue to take a targeted and proportionate approach to our supervision and to the use of our supervisory powers; and    Continue our engagement with key stakeholders, including through our participation at the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS), to work towards consistent application of regulatory standards and coordinated supervisory efforts.  SimplificationEurope is rightly looking to ensure its economy is productive and competitive into the future. Productive and resilient business sectors are central to that objective. To help deliver that, there is an increasing focus on the simplification of regulation, including financial regulation. It is important to remember that regulation plays a key role in the economy and financial system – enabling innovation, competition and cross border activity, while ensuring the financial system operates in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy, both in good times and bad. Given its importance, regulation should always be forward-looking, proportionate, predictable, and, to the greatest extent possible, harmonised. Supervision, in turn, should be risk based and outcomes-focused.   And in our view, regulators and supervisors should always be open to reviewing and considering existing frameworks, to see if we can deliver the same outcomes in different, and indeed “simpler”, ways that reduce the administrative burden on firms. Simplification done well is in line with these principles, which is why we are proactively engaging with the simplification agenda, at home and in Europe. Domestically, we have already identified and indeed implemented areas where we could simplify and reduce the burden and we will continue to do so.  By way of example, we have streamlined authorisation and change of business requirements and removed the requirement for an external audit of captive insurer's regulatory returns and public disclosures. At European level, the Solvency II review will carve out a proportionality regime for small and non-complex undertakings. In parallel, EIOPA is working to achieve simplification and burden reduction through a focus on harmonisation and a rationalisation of reporting requirements and guidance to firms and supervisory authorities.There is of course a careful and critical balance to be struck, and this requires industry to play its part too. Simpler standards cannot mean lower standards, and simpler standards will still need to deliver their intended outcomes.  We will all have a role in making sure that we get simplification right and it is so important that we do.  The outcomes of financial stability and consumer protection are now more important than ever as we will have no growth and no adoption of innovation, if the financial sector is not stable and consumers don’t have trust in it.Resilience in uncertain timesReturning to the three areas of shared focus I set out at the beginning of my remarks, let me take each in turn.In recent years the insurance sector has shown itself to be resilient in weathering significant inflation and interest rate shocks as well as volatile financial markets.  This has been welcome but I think we will all agree that there is no room for complacency.  Rising geopolitical tensions and economic divisions pose significant challenges for insurers, which serve to underscore the continued importance of prudent risk management and resilience across the financial system, and at an individual firm level, the maintenance of sufficient financial resources to withstand plausible but severe stresses. Close monitoring of the impact of changes in financial markets, the macro environment, the changing needs of your consumers, and over the longer term, climate, will need to remain at the forefront for industry and regulators both now and into the future.  Accountability, trust and consumer focus Turning to trust, this forms the foundation of the relationship between insurers and their customers, and so is something that it is critical to maintain. Consumers need to trust that insurers are providing value for money, ongoing service and support, and that they will honour the commitments they have made where insured risks crystallise.We believe that the development of consumer focused cultures, robust governance and well defined accountabilities are the fundamental building blocks of organisations that are trustworthy. These were key design principles underpinning the Central Bank’s Individual Accountability Framework.    We see the importance of consumer trust clearly resonating and reflected in Insurance Ireland’s strategy to “support building consumer trust in insurance” and this is very welcome.   This will involve the insurance sector playing an active role in relation to the measures needed to address emerging protection gaps. It will also require insurance firms to take steps to build trust with consumers through transparency, value for money, suitability of products, and high quality customer support and service.  Through our supervision, we will continue to examine how firms are delivering on their responsibilities to their customers and the continued commitment to building consumer trust in the insurance sector.  Responsible and ethical innovationLastly let me speak of innovation, something that is happening at pace in the financial sector, presenting both opportunities and risks.In recent years, innovation has brought new entrants, new products and new ways of serving customers and the economy. This has clear benefits for consumers, businesses and society and is an essential component of a competitive economy and a well-functioning financial system.  The digital transition, done right, has immense potential for delivering better outcomes for consumers, investors, and the wider economy.  It is important that you are ready to capitalise on that potential, and are proactively adapting your business models, strategies and systems to do so.But it is also important that regulators and industry account for both the opportunities and risks that innovation brings.  If the insurance sector is to continue to be resilient and to maintain trust, then innovation needs to be done in a way that is both responsible and ethical.The insurance industry has pioneered the use of data and statistics to make informed decisions on risk. The management of new data and technologies, particularly involving use of generative Artificial Intelligence, will require firms to consider carefully their ethical and responsible use, including the governance and controls required to oversee these technologies effectively. And we, as regulators, will be focused on developing a deeper understanding of use of Artificial Intelligence systems in the insurance sector and assessing whether firms have the necessary governance and risk management measures in place to harness innovation responsibly and well.    Closing remarksIt is important to acknowledge as we look forward that insurance firms and regulators have a shared goal in securing a well-functioning and resilient insurance sector into the future.Given the rapid change underway and ahead, in the nature, shape and digitalisation of the global economy and financial system, it is important we remain vigilant, maintain resilience, and ensure we are agile and adapting to the changing nature of financial services, the opportunities it provides and the changing nature of resilience it implies.I am reminded of a quote attributed to the French writer Albert Camus, who observed that “real generosity towards the future lies in giving all to the present”.This is a sentiment which I expect will resonate with us all and highlights the importance of our collective efforts and work today in securing a future where the insurance sector continues to support the needs of people, businesses and the wider economy.  My thanks to Brian Balmforth, Maura Killoran, Cian O’Laoide and James O’Sullivan for their help in preparing these remarks.