The data from New Zealand is all that is on the calendar. These are unlikely to move the kiwi too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Netflix earnings preview: the post-Warner reset gets its first real testNetflix (NFLX) reports after the bell today with shares at $108.26, up 0.5% on the session and riding a 25%+ rally since management walked away from Warner Bros. Discovery in late February. That rally is the whole backdrop for tonight's print.Consensus via Refinitiv:EPS: $0.76Revenue: $12.18 billionThe numbers might not be the market move but instead it will be about what management says about everything that's happened since the prior quarter.The setup has completely flippedTwo months ago this was supposed to be the WBD deal-closing victory lap. Instead, Paramount Skydance outbid them for the whole thing, Netflix pocketed a $2.8 billion break-up fee, and the stock tore higher on the "discipline" trade. Now Wall Street actually has to figure out what the standalone story looks like and what the strategy is from here.Forrester's Mike Proulx put it bluntly: heading into this print Netflix is in a very different spot than anyone expected six weeks ago. The question is no longer integration risk — it's how Netflix competes in a streaming top tier that's about to get a lot more concentrated.Deutsche Bank's read on walking away: management dodged a meaningful debt build, heavy regulatory scrutiny and a messy integration. The implication — and this is the part that actually matters for the stock — is that the focus now snaps back to engagement, pricing and advertising. The management need to have a strategy and/or some good numbers.What the sell side is actually sayingMorgan Stanley's Sean Diffley picked up coverage with an Overweight and a $115 target, and his framing is the cleanest bull case out there. He calls post-WBD Netflix "a cleaner, higher-visibility, and lower-volatility business and thinks the multiple can re-rate back above 30x as AI flips from a risk narrative to an opportunity narrative. He also flagged something traders should care about: since 2015, owning Netflix after a US price hike has averaged a 20% return over the following nine months.BofA's Jessica Reif Ehrlich (Buy, $125) is more nuanced. On the March price hike, her take was that the timing came earlier than the Street expected, and given the engagement debate of the last 12–18 months she reads it as a validator of management's confidence in underlying strength and durability.Wedbush's Alicia Reese (Outperform, $118) is pounding the ad-tier table. She expects ad revenue to at least double to $3 billion this year and thinks the WBD break-up cash gives Netflix room to keep extending its competitive lead. Her Q1 numbers are ahead of consensus: $12.22B revenue, $0.77 EPS.Evercore's Mark Mahaney (Outperform, $115) calls Street estimates "highly reasonable" and — importantly for the reaction function tonight — warned that the stock would likely trade off modestly if Netflix doesn't raise full-year guidance. That's a good benchmark to keep in mind.The one skeptic worth reading is Benchmark's Daniel Kurnos (Hold). He's impressed with the pricing math but notes the last time Netflix raised into a tough macro was 2022, and subs missed expectations that time around. Fair caveat: there was no ad tier then, so the comparison isn't clean — but the bear case hasn't disappeared, it's just been drowned out by the rally.A few things to watch tonight:Guidance. Per Mahaney, anything short of maintained-or-raised 2026 guidance is a sell-the-news setup. Company has guided $51B for the year (14% growth).Ad revenue trajectory. Management already said they expect the $1.5B 2025 ad number to double in 2026. The Street wants evidence the run-rate is on that path.Engagement commentary. Gabelli's John Belton calls engagement the lifeblood of the company The Hollywood Reporter and every bear thesis right now hinges on it slowing. This is the swing factor for multiple expansion.What they do with the $2.8B. Buybacks? Content? Ad tech? The capital allocation answer matters for whether the post-WBD story is "discipline" or "we just don't know what to do next."Europe. A Rome court recently ruled that Netflix illegally pushed through price hikes from 2017–2024, with similar suits filed in Germany, the Netherlands and Poland. Wedbush flagged European resistance as a potential overhang. Not a Q1 number issue, but worth listening for on the call.Options hintsOptions are pricing roughly a 6–7% move. Consensus price target is around $115, so about 6% upside at current levels — the bar is respectable but not heroic. Netflix has beaten revenue in nine of the last ten quarters, which explains why bulls are comfortable, and also why a small beat probably isn't enough.Numbers hit directly after the close with the usual release time over the past four releases at 4:01 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran's agreed they won't have a nuclear weaponIf there's no deal with Iran, fighting will resumeWe have a lot of agreement with IranIran has agreed to give us back the nuclear dustNext meeting with Iran may take place over the weekendUS blockade of Hormuz is holding up wellI think we are going to have a dealWe have a very powerful statement that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, it goes beyond 20 yearsI will extend the ceasefire if I think it's necessaryIf a deal happens, oil goes down, prices go down and inflation goes downLooking very good we will make a deal with IranIran has agreed to almost everythingIf Iran deal is signed in Pakistan, I might go thereOil prices are falling on this.Netanyahu is also hitting the wires:I agreed to a temporary, ten-day ceasefire with LebanonOur key demand is that Hezbollah must be dismantledIsrael has not agreed to Hezbollah demand to retreat to international borderWe will remain in Lebanon with an extensive security zoneThis is all good news and it's reversed a bit of the $4 rise in oil prices today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I don't love the price action in oil at the moment.For one, it highlights the lingering risks around a peace deal in Iran. The market briefly shuddered on a report that said it could take six months to do the deal. Now presumably the broad contours are agreed before then and the Strait of Hormuz is open but that's no guarantee. There's also the risk that negotiating tensions are high and that ships avoid the route or can't be insured during that period.Alternatively, the oil market could just be showing physical tightness.There are two participants in the crude market: Speculators and physical buyers. The specs drive the headline moves and try to front-run where the marginal price of a barrel will land. That isn't easy, and it's particularly hard when 13 million barrels are taken out of the market.My fear is that we're starting to see signs of physical tightness that leads to a persistent bid. There was a story yesterday of physical barrels selling for nearly $200 in Sri Lanka and that highlights how hard it is to destroy demand. This also doesn't look like just a delivery issues as June crude is also up $3.37 today (though if you go further out the curve, December is up just 27-cents).I don't like the way that price action today has steadily risen. To me, that's more of a telltale sign of physical demand and there's the risk that specs have mispriced the shortage and that +$100 (and potentially much more) is coming on supply bottlenecks even if Hormuz is opened next week.Also worrisome is how Treasury yields are rising with this latest move in oil. US 10-year yields are up 3.2 bps to 4.91% and at the highest levels of the day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A newswire report is just out talking about a six month timeline for an Iran deal, citing Gulf and European officials. It's worth highlighting that the original JCPOA took two years to negotiate. The nightmare strategy here is that the Strait stays closed during negotiations or that risks are so high that tankers won't take the risk.Obviously, that's an intolerable situation for the global economy and we've seen some equity selling on the headline.Here's a bit of a history lesson: The WWI ceasefire was agreed at 5:10 am and the armistice went into effect at 11:11 am on November 11, 1918 but the Treaty of Versailles wasn't signed until June 1919 (more than seven months later) and it didn't go into effect until Jan 1920. And that was with Germany defeated and essentially being dictated the terms of the peace.So these things take time to paper but all that really matters for markets is the Strait. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This isn't a big surprise given the leaks all week but it's still progress and a great signal that the US and Iran are on track:I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST. On Tuesday, the two Countries met for the first time in 34 years here in Washington, D.C., with our Great Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. I have directed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, together with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Razin' Caine, to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a Lasting PEACE. It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let's, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMPThere has been a small bump in risk assets on this. Now we get to the harder part of ending the war in Iran and opening the Strait of Hormuz in a way that preserves long term peace.Now there is a report that Netanyahu is just convening a cabinet meeting and one report says cabinet is outraged it was announced by Trump before they were informed. There is also a Reuters report saying that Israel's military has no plans to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon during any ceasefire. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If you’ve been using AI lately, you know the discourse. It’s been a frustrating few weeks for the power users and there’s a growing chorus on Reddit and X that the latest updates from Google and Anthropic have been “nerfed”—shaved down at the edges, made more cautious, and frankly, a bit dumber in the name of safety and "alignment." I fully agree with this assessment as someone who uses them daily and can't believe how dome Gemini in particular has gotten.Both Anthropic and Google have spent the last two months getting hammered by power users who say their flagship models have been quietly degraded — what developers have started calling "AI shrinkflation." An AMD senior director ran the forensics on 6,852 Claude Code sessions and found median reasoning depth collapsed roughly 73% between January and March. Independent benchmarks from Marginlab show Opus 4.6's SWE-Bench-Pro pass rate sliding from 56% to 50%. Gemini 3 Pro users have been filing near-identical complaints in Google's own developer forums since December — context windows that forget at 32k despite being marketed as 1M, documents that won't process, reasoning is obviously thinner.In any case, Anthropic just dropped Claude Opus 4.7, and while the headlines say "faster and better at coding," the real story is what’s not in the box.The BenchmarksThe technicals on Opus 4.7 look good on paper. Anthropic is touting a massive leap in vision capabilities and a specific focus on "economically valuable knowledge work."They’re pointing to the GDPval-AA benchmark—a metric that measures finance and legal domain expertise—where 4.7 is showing clear gains over its predecessor. In the coding world, the "ultrareview" command and "xhigh" reasoning levels suggest they’re trying to claw back the trust of developers who felt the previous versions were starting to hallucinate or get lazy.The model everyone actually wants—Claude Mythos—is still in "Preview" and under lock and key. But note that they're teasing it in the table above, which was released in the PR for 4.7. Anthropic has said that Mythos is too powerful (or too dangerous for cybersecurity) to let the general public touch it yet.They’ve launched "Project Glasswing" to gatekeep the top-tier intelligence, citing safety concerns. For the market, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it builds the "God-model" hype. On the other, it confirms the suspicion that the models we can pay for are effectively the "lite" versions, throttled by safeguards that act as a drag on performance, or that there is some kind of degradation or throttling due to over use.From an investment perspective, this is where it gets interesting. We’re seeing a shift in the AI trade. The initial "wow" factor of LLMs is hitting the reality of corporate safety and compute costs.When users complain about a model being "nerfed," what they’re usually seeing is a company trying to save on inference costs or avoid a PR nightmare. If the "usefulness" of these tools is being capped by safety protocols, the ROI for businesses starts to look a lot different.It seems to me that Opus 4.7 is a "bridge" model. It’s designed to keep users happy while Anthropic figures out how to release Mythos without breaking the world (or their servers). The whole discourse around nerfing actually bodes well for inference plays like Micron (MU) and Samsung. It's also good for Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), who are designing more efficient chips for Google.Keep an eye on the design stocks today—Adobe and Wix are already feeling the heat from the web-design rumors surrounding this release. But until "Mythos" is actually out in the wild, the AI sector is trading on potential, not full-throttle delivery. We're still waiting for the "unfiltered" moment that justifies the next leg of this massive capex spend.What I've noticed is that new models work great for awhile and then are nerfed over time, so enjoy the new release while you can. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe latest stock market snapshot reveals a mixed landscape across sectors, with energy stocks soaring while tech giants experience a downturn. The energy sector, represented by notable figures such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), witnessed gains of 1.23% and 1.26%, respectively, reflecting a strong drive in oil and gas prices.In contrast, technology stocks showed a varied performance. Software giant Microsoft (MSFT) managed a 1.06% gain, but other major players like Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) were in decline, down by 1.64% and 0.69%, respectively. This disparity suggests cautious investor sentiment towards high-value tech stocks.Market Mood and TrendsToday's market mood underscores volatility and sector-based divergence. The tech sector's mixed performance hints at concerns over valuations and potential pullbacks, particularly seen in Apple's and Nvidia's declines. Meanwhile, the energy sector's upward trend is likely buoyed by rising commodity prices, possibly prompting a shift in investor preference toward more tangible assets.Interestingly, communications services such as Google (GOOGL) remain relatively stable with a slight dip of 0.09%, maintaining investor interest in digital infrastructure despite technological headwinds.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors might benefit from a diversified approach, capitalizing on the current momentum within the energy sector. For those seeking stability amidst tech volatility, monitoring emerging technologies within industrials or healthcare may offer some refuge. The dynamic nature of today's market landscape suggests staying vigilant on news regarding inflation and interest rates, which could significantly influence future trends.As always, staying informed with real-time data and expert analyses can help in navigating the complexities of current market dynamics. Visit InvestingLive.com for in-depth insights and the latest updates on market trends. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Miran is a joke and is only there to take orders from the White House but even he can't ignore the oil shock and its impact on inflation. So he says he would now pencil in 3 cuts this year compared to 4 previously.That's a sign of which way the wind is blowing and you can see that in the curve, where the market now sees 10 bps of easing this year compared to 50-60 bps pre-war.Miran also says that a year from now, inflation could be at 2%. Of course , remember that he's been arguing that underlying inflation is close to 2% and we just got a core 2.6% y/y print and 3.3% y/y. He has no credibility and is not a market mover. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

At this moment, it is not appropriate for the Fed to provide specific forward guidanceMonetary policy is currently situated in the correct positionInflation figures will stay "significantly higher" than 3% during the coming monthsThe economic consequences will grow more severe the longer the conflict continuesMarkets are currently weighing a robust U.S. outlook against the uncertainties of warLowered U.S. vulnerability to oil shocks is contributing to some market resilienceWar-related shocks involve both price spikes and the actual lack of available commoditiesKeeping inflation expectations firmly anchored remains a priorityCyber threats are the primary concern that keeps me awake at nightBuilding on his earlier remarks regarding geopolitical volatility, John Williams further detailed the growing economic toll of the ongoing conflict. He warned that the "war shock" is no longer just a price issue but a supply issue, as certain commodities become physically unavailable. Consequently, he expects inflation to remain "well above" 3% in the near term. While he noted that the U.S. economy's reduced sensitivity to oil shocks has provided a buffer for markets, he cautioned that the total economic fallout will scale with the duration of the conflict.Strategically, Williams signaled a move away from transparency in the immediate future, stating that the current environment is too volatile for "firm forward guidance." He maintained that while policy is currently in the "right place," the Fed must focus on keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored. Beyond the immediate economic data, Williams highlighted cyber risk as his most significant systemic concern, suggesting that the "higher-for-longer" inflationary environment is now being compounded by deep-seated structural and security threats.The USD some some volatility in the past few minutes in what looks like some profit taking around war risks. However the moves quickly dissipated and stocks are now flat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There was a report from Iranian media two days ago that a ceasefire was hours away and that turned out to be not true. Note that this one is from Haaretz, which is a daily Israeli newspaper. It says that the Israeli army is preparing to halt combat operations between 7 pm and midnight local time. It's currently 4:30 pm in Tel Aviv.This is obviously good news for peace negotiations in Iran and the region.Pete Hegseth had some tough talk today but the political signs continue to point towards some kind of deal. However the risk-reward here isn't great as I'd estimate at deal is 95% priced in with stocks at a record high and the Nasdaq on an 11-day winning streak. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2% (revised to +0.7%)Manufacturing output -0.1% vs +0.1% expPrior manufacturing output +0.2% (revised to +0.4%)Capacity utilization 75.7% vs 76.3% priorThe revisions essentially sterilize the miss here. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Conflict in the Middle East is already pushing inflation higherDespite ongoing challenges, monetary policy remains "well positioned"Economic prospects are deeply uncertain due to the impact of warNew signs of disruptions in supply chains are beginning to emergePortions of the energy shock are now filtering into broader pricesA rapid resolution to the conflict would assist in lowering inflationary pressureAnticipates the unemployment rate will remain within the $4.25\%$ to $4.5\%$ rangeEstimates that inflation will move back to the $2\%$ goal by 2027Foresees inflation reaching $2.75\%$-$3\%$ this year, driven by energy costsPredicts GDP growth will sit between $2\%$ and $2.5\%$ in 2026The jobs market is currently providing inconsistent signalsThe Federal Reserve's system for controlling rates is performing very effectivelyPredicts the effect of tariffs on inflation will diminish throughout this yearNew York Fed President John Williams said the Middle East conflict is already pushing inflation higher, and the outlook from here is deeply uncertain. He's sticking to the line that monetary policy is "well positioned," which is Fed-speak for 'we're in no rush to do anything' and that's what the market continues to price with just 10 bps of easing in the 2026 curve.Today's economic data was strong though and the inflationary warning signs are building. Supply chain disruptions are starting to reappear, and the energy shock is no longer contained — it's bleeding into broader prices. Williams made the obvious point that a quick resolution to the conflict would take pressure off inflation.On the forecasts, Williams sees inflation running at 2.75%-3% this year on energy costs, before drifting back to the 2% goal by 2027. That's a long runway. GDP is pegged at 2%-2.5% in 2026, with unemployment holding in a 4.25%-4.5% range. The jobs market, in his words, is sending mixed signals — which isn't much to hang a policy view on. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 219K (revised to 218K)4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.75K versus 209.5K last weekContinuing claims 1818K vs 1810K expectedPrior week 1794K (revised to 1787K)This is a good reading and while the Iran war was going on there have been a series of upbeat readings on the economy. As this report was released, the Philly Fed also handily beat expectations. Were it not for this war and tariffs, we would be talking about a very strong US economy and an AI-led boom.The US dollar ticked slightly higher on this but trading is generally subdued today with EUR/USD down 17 pips on the day to 1.1781. S&P 500 futures are up 10 points.Initial claims drop back to 207K after last week's pop to 218K, reinforcing the view that the labour market remains tight without showing signs of meaningful deterioration. The 4-week average barely budged, which is the number to watch through seasonal noise around Easter and spring break timing. The unadjusted data actually rose 6.0% week-over-week, but seasonal factors had penciled in an 11.8% jump, so the adjusted print benefits from that offset.Continuing claims tick up 31K to 1.818M, but the four-week average fell to its lowest level in nearly two years — a quiet signal that those losing jobs are still finding their way back into work reasonably quickly. Year-over-year, continuing claims are running below the comparable 2025 week (1.943M).On the state level, New Jersey (+5,603), Pennsylvania (+2,513) and Oregon (+2,182) drove the largest unadjusted increases in the prior week's data, with Pennsylvania citing layoffs across transportation/warehousing, hospitality and healthcare. Oregon pointed to the education sector. Offsetting declines came from New York (-1,592) and Texas (-1,299). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +18.1Details:New orders 33.0 vs 8.6 priorShipments 34.0 vs 22.2 priorUnfilled orders -10.2 vs -4.7 priorDelivery times 1.7 vs 18.9 priorInventories -1.9 vs 1.4 priorPrices paid 59.3 vs 44.7 priorPrices received 33.5 vs 21.2 priorNumber of employees -5.1 vs 0.8 priorAverage employee workweek 7.7 vs 2.8 priorSix-months from now indicators:6 month index 40.8 vs 40.0 priorCapex index 6-month forward 35.2 vs 25.8 priorNew orders 45.7 vs 49.6 priorShipments 40.8 vs 53.6 priorUnfilled orders -4.1 vs 15.3 priorDelivery times 2.7 vs -4.7 priorInventories -0.7 vs 16.8 priorPrices paid 50.2 vs 53.7 priorPrices received 50.2 vs 38.4 priorNumber of employees 35.9 vs 40.4 priorAverage employee workweek 30.3 vs 24.1 priorThe survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment. Both price indexes rose for the second consecutive month. The firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators moved down.What is the Philly Fed Index?The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also known as the Philly Fed Index, is one of the earliest monthly indicators of manufacturing sector health in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it surveys manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Readings above zero indicate expanding activity, while readings below zero signal contraction. The survey is closely watched by economists and market participants because it often serves as a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing Index released later each month. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Every meeting is a live meeting; a lot can happen until April 30 ECB policy meetingMarket pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonableEnergy price developments are not far from baseline but moves volatile, uncertainHave not seen large second-round inflation impacts materialiseFirms may start adjusting prices quicker than in the past given recent experience with inflationAn ECB sources report yesterday played down the chances of an April rate hike and the market has responded by pushing the implied odds down to 21% from as high as 39% recently. For June though, a hike is 67% priced in and there almost exactly 50 bps of hikes priced in by December.ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks has signaled a lean toward further policy tightening, characterizing market expectations for two additional rate hikes this year as "reasonable." While noting that significant second-round effects—where wages and prices spiral upward—have yet to fully materialize, he warned that corporate behavior has shifted. Firms, seasoned by recent inflationary spikes, may now adjust prices more rapidly than historical norms, potentially keeping inflation stickier for longer.Kazaks emphasized a state of high alert, noting that "every meeting is a live meeting" and cautioning that significant data shifts could occur before the April 30 policy gathering. Although energy prices currently align with the ECB’s baseline, he labeled the sector as volatile and uncertain. Overall, his tone suggests that while the worst-case scenarios for inflation have been avoided so far, the ECB remains firmly in a restrictive stance to preemptively counter quickening price adjustments. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Markets continue to keep the faith awaiting more positive US-Iran developmentsAfter 5 months, the Nasdaq finally hits a new record high amid US-Iran deal optimismNetflix earnings is tonight. Are you holding?Senior Iranian Official: Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issuesECB policymaker Muller: A rate move at the April meeting cannot be ruled outECB's Villeroy: April hike premature, no rush to actAll members viewed risks to inflation outlook as tilted to the upside, ECB account showsSwiss franc appreciation has led to tighter monetary conditions - SNB minutesUK February monthly GDP +0.5% vs +0.1% m/m expectedEurozone March final CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prelimItaly March final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelimMarkets:WTI crude (May) down 0.2% to $91.11, WTI crude (June) up 0.2% to $88.30, Brent crude up 0.7% to $95.80S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, European indices up 0.3% to 0.6% across the boardCAD leads, NZD lags on the dayUS 10-year yields flat at 4.275%Gold up 0.7% to $4,822, Silver up 0.5% to $79.43Bitcoin down 0.1% to $74,761It was another tepid session for the most part as markets are still waiting for more concrete positive developments from the US-Iran conflict.Pakistan is trying to mediate the situation with its army chief arriving in Tehran to try and push for a second round of talks. The US and Iran are still not able to see eye to eye on a nuclear agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So, that is keeping things on edge even as markets are taking the more optimistic angle for now.There's still an air of calm for the most part with oil prices consolidating at the lower end for this week. Brent crude is up just 0.7% to $95.80 as traders remain cautious still. Meanwhile, WTI crude is keeping just above the $91 mark for the May contract whereas the June contract is seeing prices at around $88.30 for now. The latter has more open interest at this stage and is arguably the more reliable indicator of "front-month" pricing.In the equities space, European stocks are following up on the record high closes in Wall Street with modest gains today. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are also seen up 0.1% as investors stay calm.In FX, the dollar is keeping more mixed across the board with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1780 while USD/JPY is flat near 159.00 on the day. The latter did see a decent rebound after hitting a low of 158.27 in Asia trading, following some verbal jawboning by Japan finance minister Katayama.The changes among dollar pairs are mostly negligible though with USD/CAD down just 0.1% to 1.3727 and AUD/USD flat on the day at 0.7170 currently.Elsewhere, precious metals are keeping slight gains with gold up 0.7% to $4,822 while silver is up 0.5% to $79.43 on the day.It's still all on US-Iran developments and will continue to be the case until the weekend surely. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The energy supply shock has had a large impact on near-term inflation compensation in the euro areaLonger-term inflation compensation had remained broadly stableDespite strong increases in spot prices for oil and gas, it was argued that energy markets could still be seen as rather sanguine about the situationThe strong backwardation of futures prices seemed to suggest that a normalisation of global oil and gas supply within the next few months remained a realistic prospectHowever, even if there was a rapid resolution of the conflict, it could still take several months for supply through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restoredOverall, the war was creates significant uncertainty and constitutes a negative supply shock, pushing up inflation and dampening economic activity in the coming monthsMembers assessed that the risks to the growth outlook were tilted to the downside, especially in the near-termMembers assessed that the risks to the inflation outlook were tilted to the upside, especially in the near-termWith respect to the communication of the scenarios, members agreed that the baseline, adverse and severe scenarios should all be publishedIt was agreed that ECB staff would regularly update the scenario analysis with new informationThe implications for medium-term inflation were very hard to gauge at this stage, partly because of fundamental uncertainty over the evolution of the war and highly volatile energy marketsBut all members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as tilted to the upside relative to the baseline staff projectionsIt was highlighted that the risk of second-round effects was state-contingentOn monetary policy, the option value of waiting was high on this occasion and it was therefore appropriate to leave policy rates unchangedMeeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach still allows for sufficient flexibility to react at short notice if necessaryFull accountThere are not real surprises to what has been said as ECB policymakers are making some comparisons to the current situation to that back in 2021-22 from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.They are valuing optionality more at this stage, which is also evident by recent remarks. That as they might prefer to wait until June before acting on monetary policy, considering that the US-Iran conflict is still presenting much uncertainty. However, the situation remains rather fluid in the coming weeks.The key question once the dust settles though is once again going to be, is this all just another "transitory" episode? We all know how the first one went. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe Nasdaq surged into a new all-time high amid US-Iran deal optimism. The US-Iran war has been pushing the market lower on negative growth expectations and as those expectations now get repriced on the positive side, the stock market has room to run. The playbook is very similar to April 2025. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to break down again, we might see a selloff, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the downside should remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might give the Nasdaq another boost to push into new highs although a “sell the fact” type of reaction remains a risk given the extreme positioning.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq surged into a new record high after an incredible rally since the start of April. We can expect the sellers to step in if the price falls back below the 26,400 level to position for a drop into the 25,500 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely increase the bullish bets here to keep pushing into new highs, although a pullback would offer a better risk to reward setup.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a couple of trendlines that could act as support for dip-buyers. In fact, if we get a pullback from the all-time highs, we can expect the buyers to lean on the first trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the next trendline where we should find again the dip-buyers.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have yet another minor trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the next trendline. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, but the focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It has been that kind of the week in European trading for the most part. The action is rather minimal as traders continue to wait on US-Iran headlines, especially with much resting on the next round of talks. US president Trump offered up much optimism at the start of the week and that helped to goose risk sentiment higher, in turn weighing on the dollar. However, that narrative is getting a little weary amid a lack of real progress yet to be seen.For now, Pakistan is working to mediate the situation further and getting Iran back to the negotiating table. While there are some positive murmurs that the US and Iran are able to agree on most things, the two most important things are the ones that they still cannot come to terms with. The first being the US wanting Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and the second is for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.As such, that is keeping broader markets on edge as we continue to wait on further headlines and developments on where this is all going. And more importantly, if the market optimism from the start of the week will be vindicated.The dollar is keeping steadier today with EUR/USD once again backing off from the 1.1800 mark. The pair is down 0.2% to 1.1775 currently.Meanwhile, USD/JPY has more or less made the round trip to sit back a little higher by 0.1% to 159.10 after having been dumped lower to as low as 158.26 following some verbal jawboning by Tokyo officials. In case you missed it earlier:Japan's finance minister Katayama said to intensify communication with BessentJapan’s Katayama says closely watching FX as oil volatility hits yenBesides that, the changes are relatively light among other dollar pairs with USD/CAD flat at 1.3735 and AUD/USD also flat on the day at 0.7167 currently.The broader risk mood is also steadier but not really following up on the Wall Street rally from yesterday. S&P 500 futures are flat at the moment while Nasdaq futures are marginally up by just 0.1%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.