EUR/USD1.1800 (EUR 2.13 bn)1.1750 (EUR 1.20 bn)1.1580 (EUR 1.70 bn)1.1500 (EUR 3.10 bn)USD/JPY156.00 (US$ 888.40 mn)GBP/USD1.3460 (GBP 547.69 mn)1.3300 (GBP 539.66 mn)1.3230 (GBP 468.71 mn)1.3150 (GBP 386.57 mn)USD/CHF0.8100 (US$ 373.54 mn)0.7925 (US$ 375.00 mn)USD/CAD1.4200 (US$ 568.23 mn)1.3550 (US$ 622.00 mn)AUD/USD0.6800 (AUD 785.29 mn)0.6700 (AUD 450.27 mn)0.6600 (AUD 860.15 mn)0.6520 (AUD 860.93 mn)NZD/USD0.5700 (NZD 557.89 mn)EUR/GBP0.8700 (EUR 568.07 mn)Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

He's been talking mostly about the French economy but touched on the ECB policy too now. Goes without saying that this is no news for the market as no rate cut is expected.The market has been actually starting to look for signs that the ECB could hike rates in 2026 or 2027. Right now, there's a 33% probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the end of 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

No need to change rates with inflation at targetData suggests inflation and GDP risks are fairly balancedI feel December rate decision won't be difficultThis has been the core ECB message for a long time now. The central bank is not expected to cut at all for years, on the contrary, the market is pricing some tightening in 2026 following the hawkish comments from ECB's Schnabel recently. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:BoC is expected to hold interest rates steady at 2.25%The central bank will likely scrap the caveats for further easing effectively marking the end of the easing cycleThe market has fully priced in a rate hike in 2026, but the BoC is unlikely to validate that just yetGiven the caveats in the strong Canadian data, Governor Macklem should still sound cautious but keep options on the tableThe Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. That would keep interest rates at the lower bound of the central bank's estimated neutral range of 2.25-3.25%. We won't get the economic projections at this decision. The BoC will likely scrap any signal to further easing to solidly confirm the end of the easing cycle, but not validate the rate hike bets just yet. Governor Macklem is expected to sound cautious about the recent economic data but still more hawkish than his previous press conferences. STATAMENTAt the last decision, the central bank cut interest rates to 2.25% and signalled the move to the sidelines while keeping some caveats in the statement. We should see some notable changes.The central bank should acknowledge the recent improvement in GDP but also highlight the weak details, keeping it a bit cautious. They should admit the strength in the labour market though despite the drop in full-time jobs. The outlook around inflation will likely remain unchanged as the Bank continues to see inflation in check for now.The "Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level" could see a slight change to a stronger neutral stance by scrapping the "about". PRESS CONFERENCEGovernor Macklem is expected to strike a cautious tone while delivering a stronger neutral message and indicating the readiness to respond if the outlook were to change. He's likely to highlight the caveats in the recent GDP and labour market reports. In fact, GDP strength was mostly due to a big drop in imports and the advance October GDP reading showed -0.3% contraction. On the labour market data side, there's no doubt it's been on a hot streak and the latest release showed the biggest drop in the unemployment rate in 20 years (excluding Covid). The only negative part was the loss in full-time jobs.MARKET PRICINGDecember cut: 0% probability2026 hike: 100% probabilityTotal 2026 tightening: 35 bpsMARKET REACTIONGiven the expectations and market pricing, it's unlikely to see big moves for the CAD today (especially considering the focus on the FOMC decision). The central bank will need to push back on the market pricing to see notable CAD weakness or open the door for rate hikes to give the CAD some further boost. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. Given the looming Fed's decision, the price action today will likely be rangebound into the event. In the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC monetary policy decisions. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the caveats to further easing to solidly state that the easing cycle is over. This follows a slate of strong Canadian data that culminated with a blockbuster employment report last Friday. The market doesn't expect any more rate cuts, on the contrary, it has fully priced in a rate hike by the end of 2026. The BoC might not sound hawkish yet, but it will very likely start to slowly move into that direction.The Fed is expected to deliver a "hawkish" 25 bps cut and bring the FFR to 3.50-3.75%. We will also get the Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot at this decision. Traders will look for hawkish or dovish signals in the statement, dot plot and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. After this cut, the market expects two more rate cuts in 2026: one is fully priced in by next June and the other by next December. The Fed projected just one rate cut in 2026, so a deviation from that forecast will influence expectations. If the Fed were to leave its one cut projection unchanged for 2026, it will likely be tolerated despite being more hawkish compared to market pricing. Less than one or more than one is what should trigger a stronger reaction. Central bank speakers:10:45 GMT/05:45 ET - BoE Governor Bailey (neutral - voter)10:55 GMT/05:55 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - BoC Press Conference19:30 GMT/14:30 ET - FOMC Press Conference This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

China November CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% expectedChina likely to cut RRR rate next year - reportJapan PM Takaichi asked about rising yields, says closely watching market movesZelensky signals Ukaine's answer to Trumps peace plan will come WednesdayTrump: I hear that autopen might have signed the appointments of Fed board governorsJapan November corporate goods prices index +2.7% vs +2.7% expectedJapanese Reuters Tankan December manufacturing +10 vs +17 priorTrump to kick off final Fed interviews this week: Hassett remains in poll positionTrump says he will be meeting with "a couple" people for the Fed chair jobNew Zealand October migration +2400Markets:Gold down $3 to $4206US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.18%WTI crude up 7 cents to $58.32S&P 500 futures flatJPY leads, NZD lagsThere wasn't much in terms of market moves to start the day. The main one was silver hitting a fresh record high above $61 but it was fleeting move and it's now given back most of the gains. What got some of the market's attention was Trump talking about Biden using autopen to appoint Fed Governors. That's being taken as a joke and it should be noted that they're approved by Congress so it's hardly like undoing an executive order. In any case, it's another example of how badly Trump wants lower rates.In China, the CPI headline was in-line but the m/m reading was soft and so was PPI. That's couple with fresh stimulus talk in China and a report about an RRR cut. It all tees up an interesting 2026 as some recent profit taking has hit Chinese stock markets.Looking ahead, it's Fed day but we will also look out for Zelensky's response to Trump's peace plan. Optimism is low but you never know. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices have been struggling in part due to hopes for peace. Indications from Trump and Russia were that sanctions relief would come with any deal and that would allow Russian crude to flow more freely.As for the chances of a deal, they're low but peace after a long war always seems impossible until it does. These things often tend to move quickly and Trump certainly has ways to lean on Ukraine to give up a large part of its territory forever. On the ground, Russia is inching ahead but Ukraine has little capability to mount any kind of counter-attack. They're having some success on raising the economic toll on Russia but that's a tough way to win a war against a country that's seen surprisingly strong economic growth since the outset of the conflict. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The yen is the top performer so far in Asian trading as it undoes some of yesterday's damage. USD/JPY is down 30 pips to 156.57 and it was helped along by Japanese PM Takaichi who said they were closely watching market moves. She was mostly talking about rising yields but effectively, it's two sides of the same coin.Looking at the chart, we have made a big round trip this year and are almost back at the 158 high from January. The Bank of Japan is also increasingly likely to hike next week and that should weigh on the yen, particularly with the Fed set to cut rates today.All that indicates we're more likely to see some consolidation below the recent highs along with some short-term back-and-fill to 156.00. The big short term risk is that Powell is unusually hawkish, though that will be hard to do along with a cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflective fundamentalsWill take appropriate action of excessive, disorderly movesAt what point does some serious worry hit the Japanese debt market? It's no fun losing money on 10-year notes day after day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Silver continues to rally, it's up 68-cents in Asia to $61.36, which is a fresh record high.Silver is turning into a retail fomo trade if it hasn't already. And the thing about silver is that when it rallies, it can really rally.Trump talking (joking?) about vetoing Fed Governors due to Biden's autopen certainly isn't hurting the case for buying silver. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2%m/m CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% expPPI -2.2% vs -2.0% y/yThis is a step in the right direction but the PPI still shows falling prices and the m/m CPI. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump may be looking to stack the Fed.If Trump goes down this path it would be bearish for the US dollar and wildly bullish for precious metals and hard assets. The long end would hate it and there would be a big steepener. Biden appointed: JeffersonBarrCookKuglerKugler has already resigned and been replaced by Miran.If Trump were to replace the other three and the chair, he would have enough votes to do whatever he wanted, presuming that Waller, Bowman and Miran continued to back his agenda. It would be the end of Fed independence.I don't think the market will take this too seriously but this is floating a major shakeup to monetary policy and it would be an atomic bomb. Talk like this might lead Powell to stay on as a Governor when his term expires. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We get Chinese CPI data later but the high estimate is +1.1% and the consensus is +0.7% so rate cuts shouldn't be a surprise.The December Politburo meeting continued with the text on a "more proactive" fiscal policy and a "moderately loose" monetary policy.The newswire report says the report is from the local press. I'll work to find the source. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.7%m/m reading +0.3% vs +0.3% expPrior m/m reading was +0.4%The pricing on next week's BOJ decision is 77% for a cut, that's risen since last week when it was 66%. This number won't sway any opinions but it highlights inflation pressures well above the historic low prices in Japan. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior manufacturing +17Non-manufacturing vs +27 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Who is it going to be?The 'couple' number probably isn't literal but it might suggest that not all 5 finalists get a crack. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We’ve got a bit of data to chew on to kick off the Tuesday session, with the focus squarely on Japan early on and China a bit later.It’s going to be an interesting start to the day. First up at the top of the hour, we get the Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index. It’s a monthly sentiment check that often leads the official BoJ Tankan. The prior read was 17 for manufacturing and 27 for non-manufacturing.Shortly after at 2350 GMT, keep an eye on the Japanese Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) for November.Monthly expected: 0.3% (Prior 0.4%)Yearly expected: 2.7% (Prior 2.7%)Reminder: The BOJ decision is next week and a hike is mostly expected.The Main Event: China CPIThe real mover comes later in the evening (0130 GMT) when China drops its inflation numbers.The market is looking for a rise in CPI year-over-year to 0.7% (from 0.2% prior). If we see a miss here, the "China deflation" narrative is going to roar back into the headlines, and we could hear more talk about stimulus (that talk has restarted lately).PPI is expected to remain deep in negative territory at -2.0% y/y. Complete schedule:2200 GMTJP: Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index (Dec) - Prior: 17JP: Reuters Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (Dec) - Prior: 272250 GMTJP: Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (Nov) - Exp: 0.3% / Prior: 0.4%JP: Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (Nov) - Exp: 2.7% / Prior: 2.7%0130 GMTCN: PPI (YoY) (Nov) - Exp: -2.0% / Prior: -2.1%CN: CPI (YoY) (Nov) - Exp: 0.7% / Prior: 0.2%CN: CPI (MoM) (Nov) - Exp: 0.2% / Prior: 0.2% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Donald Trump will kick off his final round of Fed chair interviews this week, according to the FT.The sources cited in the report -- unnamed 'senior administration officials' -- said Kevin Hassett remains the favorite.The gold and silver rally today was certainly helped out by the sentiment that a dovish Fed chair is coming. Hassett earlier said that one 25 bps cut isn't enough. There is plenty of room for the Fed to cut rates, he said.A separate Fox report said Wall Street doesn't like Hassett. How could you not like that smiling face!? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude -4800KPrior was +2480KGasoline +7000KDistillates +1000KExpectations for tomorrow's EIA reportCrude -2310KGasoline +4518KDistillates +1943KWTI is struggling this week and finished lower by 49-cents on Tuesday. The crude number here is nice but that's a fat build in gasoline and comes after a 4.5mb build in last week's EIA data. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Ext migration and visitors +9.4% vs +9.6% priorEstimated migrant arrivals 2400 vs 1800 priorNot exactly blowing the doors off but the population is steadily rising and tourists continue to love New Zealand, aside from the long travel times. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.