Key takeaways Global stock markets staged a powerful relief rally after President Trump signalled that a comprehensive peace agreement between the US and Iran could be reached soon, triggering a sharp 6% decline in crude oil prices and easing stagflation concerns.Technology and AI-related stocks rebounded strongly, with semiconductor shares surging nearly 8% as investors regained confidence in the AI infrastructure investment cycle and concerns over liquidity drains from major IPOs eased.Bond yields and the US dollar weakened as traders scaled back expectations for energy-driven Federal Reserve rate hikes, providing support for equities, precious metals, and risk-sensitive assets across global markets.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s rebound stalled right below its 20-day moving average, with key short-term resistance at 29,700.Chart of the day - Nasdaq 100 squeezed up, halted at 20-day MA Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 12 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Thursday, 11 June, US mid-session intraday rally (induced by US President Trump’s optimistic remarks on an imminent US-Iran peace deal) in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has paused right below the 20-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from the 3 June 2026 all-time high to 10 June 2026 low.The prior 20-day moving average retest on Tuesday, 9 June, led to a 5.4% intraday drop in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD.Hence, watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 29,000 near-term support is likely to indicate yesterday’s recovery may be a “bull trap,” opening scope for further potential weakness towards the intermediate-range support of 28,280.However, a clearance with an hourly close above 29,700 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 30,075 and 30,530.Top macro headlines Trump signals imminent US-Iran peace breakthrough, crude oil plunges 6%: Global risk assets experienced a massive relief rally after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled back threatened military strikes and signalled that a negotiated settlement to end the war is near. Trump cited “discussions brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership,” stating a signing ceremony could take place in Europe as soon as this weekend. WTI crude oil tumbled 6% to a 2-month low, settling at $86.43/bbl, sharply deflating recent geopolitical inflation premiums.Wall Street recovers as S&P 500 surges 1.8%: Major U.S. equity indexes halted a bruising two-day slide to stage a violent upward reversal. The S&P 500 bounded 1.8% higher as recession and energy-driven inflation anxieties eased on the heels of the Middle East diplomatic breakthrough, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rocketed up 3.3%.AI infrastructure and chip stocks stage 8% monster bounce: The beaten-down semiconductor sector led the broader market resurgence. A closely watched gauge of global chipmakers (SOX) jumped nearly 8% as momentum and dip-buying institutional capital flooded back into AI-concentric winners.SpaceX generates $250 billion in demand for historic $75 Billion Listing: Highlighting robust private-market liquidity, Elon Musk’s SpaceX successfully closed its historic $75 billion capital raise at a fixed price of $135 per share. The listing, which tracked as the largest-ever corporate market entry, drew over $250 billion in institutional demand and more than $100 billion in orders from retail investors, suggesting the IPO is nearly four times oversubscribed and relieving fears of an immediate liquidity squeeze in secondary public equities.The US is crowned the world’s Top oil exporter as shifting energy order sinks OPEC power: Data released on Thursday confirmed that the United States has officially overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest oil exporter. Spurred by structural production growth and geopolitical realignments since the war’s onset in February 2026, U.S. crude exports surged to 10.5 million barrels per day, significantly weakening OPEC’s historical pricing grip.Key macro themes De-escalation and the dismantling of the stagflation Premium: The overarching narrative shifting multi-asset portfolios was the swift unwinding of the geopolitical stagflation trade. The sudden pivot toward a comprehensive, high-level diplomatic settlement between Washington and Tehran completely re-baselined global energy risk expectations. With crude oil giving up its premium and the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz poised to remain open, market participants immediately scaled back expectations for a hawkish, energy-driven Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October, prompting a massive repricing across sovereign curves.Re-mooring of the mega-Cap AI growth thesis: The technical and fundamental damage sustained by semiconductor and AI infrastructure giants earlier in the week was aggressively repaired. Fears that massive, impending private listings (such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI) would permanently cannibalise secondary-market liquidity were alleviated as the SpaceX offering drew record-breaking oversubscriptions without causing an enduring drag on public-market tech stocks. The nearly 8% surge in chipmakers reflects institutional confirmation that corporate AI capital deployment remains fully supported by underlying liquidity in the capital markets.Realignment of global energy hegemony: The formal confirmation of the United States as the world’s dominant oil exporter marks a permanent structural shift in global trade dynamics. Driven by private-sector profit optimisation rather than state-mandated targets, the American shale and crude export complex has successfully absorbed disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supply. This structural dominance provides Washington with unparalleled economic leverage and diminishes the long-term effectiveness of traditional energy-weapon embargos.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to lead global equity boards out of a two-day correction. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, with benchmark chip components rising nearly 8%. European bourses similarly caught a strong cross-Atlantic bid, with pan-region benchmarks erasing early industrial drags to close firmly in positive territory.Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds staged a massive rally as inflation anxieties plunged alongside the sell-off in crude oil. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped 10 basis points to 4.46%, but remains above the 50-day moving average at 4.40%.FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% as safe-haven bids for the greenback dissipated. The euro erased earlier ex-post ECB losses, bouncing by 0.4% to settle at 1.1579, while the British Pound also added 0.4% to finish at $1.3416. The Japanese Yen gained 0.4% to 159.97 per dollar amid broader macro realignment.Commodities: WTI crude oil tumbled 6% to settle at $86.43/bbl. Conversely, spot gold staged a minor rebound, surging 3.4% to $4,211/oz as a slide in sovereign bond yields enhanced the appeal of non-yielding safe havens, but still remained below its 20-day moving average at $4,425/oz. Asia Pacific impact Markets poised for aggressive opening rebound: While local Asian stock indexes closed lower on Thursday (MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3%) due to lagging responses to Wednesday’s late-day inflation data and initial war spikes, the subsequent overnight peace breakthrough in New York has left regional stock futures poised for a massive opening gap higher on Friday morning. So far, the intraday bullish tone is prevailing on Friday, Nikkei 225 (+3.4%), KOSPI (+8%), Hang Seng Index (+2%), China A50 (+1.2%), CSI 300 (+1.5%), ASX 200 (+1.9%), and STI (+0.4%). But fortunes may be reversed on Monday as we head into the non-trading weekend period for public markets with the “fluid” US-Iran situation at the forefront.Asian currency pressure alleviates: Local currency defence units received significant breathing room as the U.S. dollar index softened. The Indonesian Rupiah extended its gains by 0.4% to trade at 17,900 per US dollar, recovered by 1.5% from its all-time low of 18,1800 against the greenback on Monday. However, the South Korean Won weakened slightly by 0.3% to trade at 1,520.60 per US dollar.Top 3 events to watch today SpaceX public listing Impact: US stock indicesUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (Jun) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 46, May: 44.8) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flow Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Stagflation fears returned sharply as President Trump’s threat of hard strikes on Iran pushed WTI crude back above US$90, while hot US CPI data reinforced expectations of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy stance.Technology and AI-linked equities remain under heavy pressure as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off, weighed down by stretched valuations, semiconductor weakness, and concerns that mega tech IPOs may drain liquidity from public markets.Asia Pacific markets opened weaker amid global risk-off sentiment, with tech-heavy indices such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX leading losses, while regional currencies remained under stress near multi-year lows.Chart of the day: Dow Jones (DJIA) rotation play evaporated; potential transition to a medium-term downtrend phase, with key short-term resistance at 50,390/540.Chart of the day - Dow Jones (DJIA)’s in transit towards a medium-term downtrend Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 minor trend as of 11 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The earlier outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday, 9 June, which eked out a 0.2% gain amid steep losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, has evaporated.The last price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the DJIA E-mini futures) plummeted 1.9% on Wednesday, 11 June, and broke below its 20-day moving average, with a daily close below it (see Fig. 1).Prior to the bearish breakdown of its 20-day moving average, the US Wall Street 30 CFD has breached below the medium-term ascending channel support from its 30 March 2026 low on Tuesday. These observations suggest the medium-term uptrend phase from 30 March 2026 has been demagaed, and it is now transiting into a potential medium-term downtrend phase.Watch the 50,390/540 key short-term pivotal resistance for further potential weakness towards the next intermediate supports at 49,730 and 49,250/095 in the near-term.On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 50,540 invalidates the minor bearish bias scenario for a corrective rebound for a retest on the next intermediate resistance at 50,895.Top macro headlines Trump threatens hard strikes on Iran, crude rebounds past $90: Geopolitical tensions erupted into a volatile escalation on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. will be “attacking them, attacking them very hard.” The aggressive stance followed overnight strikes that damaged a fragile two-month truce, prompting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to surge by more than 3% back above $90 as hopes for a quick resolution faded.Wall Street rout wipes out weekly advances as megacaps slump: Equity markets experienced a broad liquidation as the S&P 500 tumbled 1.6%, wiping out this week’s gains. Risk-off sentiment intensified as major technology firms and a closely watched semiconductor gauge (SOX) slid 3.6%, adding to anxieties over stretched AI valuations.US CPI jumped to almost a 3-year high, reinforced hawkish rate vibes: The U.S. Labour Department released a red-hot consumer price index data that showed an increase of 4.2% y/y in May, its highest level since April 2023, threatening sticky, energy-driven inflation and renewed fears of an emergency Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end.AI Capital demands are raising concerns about an institutional liquidity drain: Wall Street strategists are signalling alarm about an unprecedented wave of equity supply from private tech giants looking to fund AI ambitions. Capital allocators note that mega-cap private listings, including SpaceX’s fixed $135/share offering and Anthropic’s confidential IPO tracking, are forcing funds to dump liquid public equities to build necessary cash reserves.Amazon’s expansion of its shipping service targets major trucking routes: Shares of several large transportation and logistics companies plunged on Wednesday. The aggressive drop came immediately after Amazon.com Inc. announced a sweeping expansion of its proprietary internal shipping network, directly rattling the commercial freight sector.Key macro themes The return of the stagflation dilemma: The core structural narrative guiding global macro desks shifted violently away from a “soft landing” and straight back toward stagflation risk. While consumer price metrics print near-stable levels, the persistence of an energy supply crunch amid direct military friction across the Middle East keeps input costs highly elevated. If the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor faces prolonged or indefinite disruptions, oil-driven price pressures will override corporate margin resilience, forcing global central banks to lean toward hawkish policies despite weakening economic output.The AI funding bottleneck and private Issuance pressures: An underlying undercurrent to the weakness in public technology markets is a massive, looming structural drain of institutional capital. A flood of major private corporations seeking public capital to fund intensive infrastructure requirements threatens to crowd out standard secondary-market liquidity. As capital allocators clear the deck for multi-billion and near-trillion-dollar valuations across private artificial intelligence and defence aerospace firms, existing public tech listings are facing a persistent ceiling on structural bids.Cross-asset volatility inversion: As standard multi-asset insurance models begin to fray, correlations across traditionally inverse asset classes are breaking down. Bond market volatility metrics remain structurally elevated near multi-decade highs, driven by shifting policy outlooks in Tokyo, Frankfurt, and Washington. Rather than serving as an organic buffer, fixed income has become an active vector of volatility, driving stock market risk premiums significantly higher year-to-date.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 2% as hardware and semiconductor names underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% amid weakness in consumer retail and logistics. In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated amid concerns about industrial vulnerabilities.In today’s Asia opening session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures staged a relief bounce of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively after US Central Command declared that military strikes on Iranian targets have been “completed’.Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds posted modest losses as safe-haven bids failed to fully offset hawkish rate-hike fears. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note advanced 4 basis points to settle near 4.55%. Internationally, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield advanced 3 basis points to 3.08%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.95%. FX: The US Dollar Index traded almost unchanged on Wednesday as market participants await the ECB’s new monetary policy guidance today after fully pricing in a 25 bps hike for today’s policy meeting. The euro traded flat at 1.1535, and the British pound rested virtually unchanged at $1.3368.The Japanese yen inched up by 0.1%, hovering around 160.50 per dollar, just a whisker below the 30 April 2026 high of 160.73 that triggered intervention from Japanese authorities. The worst performer was the risk-sensitive AUD, which fell 0.4% to a 2-month low of 0.7000 per dollar. Commodities: Energy-dominated resource complexes, with WTI crude jumping 3.5% to settle at $91.84/bbl on Trump’s geopolitical remarks. Conversely, spot gold collapsed 4.4% to trade at $4,072/oz as non-yielding safe-havens buckled under the higher-for-longer assumption of global sovereign yields. Asia Pacific impact Equity indices retest key support levels: Driven lower by deep overnight liquidation across New York tech megacaps, regional APAC benchmarks tracked heavy downside on Thursday, Asia opening session. Speculative positioning in tech-concentrated hubs such as South Korea’s KOSPI (-2.4%) and Taiwan’s benchmark TAIEX (-2.3%) came under intense pressure amid declines in local semiconductor companies. Intraday losses were seen in other bourses: Nikkei 225 (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.4%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-0.4%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.5%).Regional currencies hit 17-year lows: Underlying currency defence limits remain under extreme stress across Asia. The South Korean Won continued to trade near a severe 17-year low of 1,530 against the greenback, prompting localised currency stability committees to keep maximum alert flags raised.Indonesian Rupiah anchors following emergency actions: Following a surprise emergency interest rate hike implemented during the prior session by Bank Indonesia to insulate the local capital account from global capital flight, the Indonesian Rupiah showed tentative signs of consolidation, holding its hard floor against the U.S. Dollar as it rebounded for the consecutive session from its record low of 18,180 printed on Monday, 8 June 2026.Top 5 events to watch today ECB Interest Rate Decision - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: 25 bps hike) Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, BundsUS PPI (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 5.4% y/y, Apr: 5.2% y/y) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices, GoldUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesECB Press Conference - 8:45 pm SGT Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, BundsUS - Iran ceasefire agreement Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Technology stocks remain under pressure as the AI trade undergoes a valuation reset. Semiconductor shares led another volatile session, with investors rotating capital away from existing tech winners amid concerns over stretched valuations and a growing pipeline of mega-sized IPOs, including SpaceX and OpenAI.Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive market sentiment. Renewed US-Iran tensions following President Trump’s comments reinforced concerns over energy security and global supply chains, keeping investors highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.Central banks are increasingly focused on financial stability and currency defence. Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate hike and reports of a potential Bank of Japan taper pause highlight policymakers’ growing willingness to intervene amid mounting pressure on currencies and sovereign bond markets.Chart of the day: Gold (XAU/USD) looking to extend further potential losses below $4,100 with key short-term resistance at $4,268/285.Chart of the day - Gold (XAU/USD) eyeing a bearish breakdown below $4,100 Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gold (XAU/USD) has extended its losses by 2% in today’s Asia session to trade at an intraday level of $4,174, just a whisker away from the 23 March 2026 medium-term swing low of $4,100. Given that the price action of gold (XAU/USD) is firmly entrenched below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, its medium-term downtrend from the 29 January 2026 all-time high remains intact (see Fig. 1).Watch the $4,268/285 key short-term pivotal resistance to hold, as it maintains the ongoing minor bearish impulsive down move sequence, exposing the next intermediate supports at $4,187/167 and $4,100. Breaking below $4,100 may see a further deceleration towards $4,032 next in the first step.However, a clearance with an hourly close above $4,285 negates the bearish tone, opening the door for another minor corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistance at $4,373/394 in the first instance.Top macro headlines Global tech rout intensifies as chipmakers tumble 9%: A heavy wave of selling battered technology sectors worldwide on Tuesday. The semiconductor gauge (SOX), which had initially attempted a fragile bounce, fell 9% intraday before trimming losses to 1.9% at the close on Tuesday, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% and erasing prior efforts to scale back toward recent peaks.US-Iran friction spikes over helicopter strike: Hopes for a quick resolution to Middle East geopolitical conflicts faded after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly declared that the United States must actively respond to an Iranian attack on an American helicopter. The comments triggered immediate volatility across commodities and energy equities.Mega-cap tech IPO pipeline crowds public liquidity: Capital desks note that extreme equity volatility is being exacerbated by a massive pipeline of new tech listings. Following news that SpaceX’s landmark initial public offering is drawing extensive institutional oversubscription, OpenAI has formally filed a confidential U.S. IPO registration, aiming to chase rivals Anthropic and SpaceX toward historic multi-billion- and trillion-dollar public valuations.Bank of Indonesia taps emergency controls via surprise hike: In regional foreign exchange management, Bank Indonesia delivered an unannounced, surprise interest rate hike early Tuesday. The emergency monetary intervention successfully arrested a historic slide in the Indonesian Rupiah, triggering a strong short-covering bounce. The IDR extended its gains in today’s Asia session by 0.8% to trade at 17,990 per US dollar.Bank of Japan reportedly mulls taper pause: Fixed-income desks reacted aggressively to circulating reports that the Bank of Japan is actively considering a temporary pause or deceleration of its previously signalled bond-buying taper. The news triggered an immediate localised rally in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), the 10-year JGB yield dipped by 3 bps on Tuesday to close at 2.68%, still holding above its 50-day moving average at around 2.55%.Key macro themes The great funding drainage and valuation recalibration: The intensifying rotation out of richly priced technology names is evolving beyond a simple narrative shift. Institutional desks are increasingly highlighting a fundamental funding dilemma across global equities. With SpaceX seeking a massive $75 billion capital raise, Anthropic progressing through its listing path, and OpenAI targeting a public valuation of up to $1 trillion, large institutional allocators are being forced to trim existing liquid technology winners to make way for these massive generational private-market entries. This liquidity drain is actively structuring a ceiling on near-term public tech momentum.Geopolitical spillover into supply chain assets: Global markets continue to trade within a hyper-reactive geopolitical premium structure. While temporary halts in direct Israel-Iran strikes initially gave risk assets a brief window to capture a "dip-buying" bounce early in the Asian session, the subsequent U.S. rhetoric surrounding direct Iranian operations quickly reinforced the fragile baseline of global energy networks and shipping routes. The resulting cross-asset landscape remains structurally pinned to headlines, preventing standard macroeconomic or corporate fundamentals from asserting sustained price authority.Central banks locked in maximum-smoothing interventions: Emerging and developed monetary authorities across the Asia-Pacific region are navigating severe ceilings on currency depreciation. The surprise interest rate action out of Jakarta and the tactical JGB policy floating from Tokyo demonstrate that regional policymakers have reached structural boundaries where the absolute defence of financial stability supersedes long-term tightening blueprints. This interventionist posture is keeping sovereign yield curves highly compressed and prone to violent intraday gaps.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, while the tech-concentrated Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.1% as semiconductor giants lost 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly higher, with a meagre 0.2% gain on Tuesday, insulated by a deep institutional rotation into defensive, value-oriented blue chips. In today’s Asia session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures extended their losses by 0.3% and 0.4%.Fixed Income: U.S. sovereign debt caught a mild haven bid on the back of Trump’s Middle East remarks, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down 5 bps to 4.52%, still above its 20-day moving average at 4.52%, ahead of today’s highly watched US CPI release.FX: The US Dollar Index finished little changed. The euro remained stable at $1.1544, while the British pound climbed 0.3% to finish at $1.3379. The Japanese yen grinded lower by 0.1% towards the prior intervention zone, closing at 160.36 per US dollar. The risk-sensitive Aussie continued its descent by 0.3% to hit a 2-month low of 0.7028 against the greenback.Commodities: WTI crude oil slumped 2.8% to close at $88.71/bbl, paring its sharpest intraday drop late in the session amid geopolitical updates. Safe-haven liquidation hit precious metals, pushing spot gold down 1.6% to settle at $4,260/oz. Asia Pacific impact Equity rebound thwarted by US tech contagion: While Asian indices like Japan's Nikkei 225 bounced 2.2% on Tuesday, overnight weakness in US technology stocks triggered a negative feedback loop into Asian bourses today. Almost a sea of red at the start of today’s Asia session; Nikkei 225 (-1.9%), KOSPI (-5.1%), Hang Seng Index (-1.1%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-1%), and STI (-1%), while Australia’s ASX 200 managed to buck the trend with a minor gain of 0.1%.Indonesian rupiah rebounds on shock rate action: The Indonesian Rupiah emerged as a top regional outperformer, rallying sharply against the U.S. dollar after Bank Indonesia executed a surprise, emergency rate hike to defend its capital account against persistent capital flight and ongoing emerging market macro pressures.JGBs catch a wave of re-buying capital: Japanese Government Bonds rallied aggressively, driving domestic yields lower following formal reports indicating that the Bank of Japan is actively leaning toward a pause in its sovereign bond-purchase tapering program to stave off broader debt network illiquidity.Top 5 events to watch today US Core Inflation Rate (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.9% y/y Apr: 2.8% y/y) Impact: All asset classesBoC Interest Rate Decision - 9:45 pm SGT (consensus: 2.25%/unchanged) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crossesEIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report -10.30 pm SGT Impact: WTI and Brent crudeSpaceX Pre-IPO Bookbuilding Adjustments Impact: US stock indicesUS-Iran developments over peace deal negotiations Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The S&P 500 faces growing downside risks amid deteriorating market breadth. Despite a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks, only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced, highlighting narrow leadership and a lack of broad-based participation in the rally.Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are tightening financial conditions. Following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate hikes starting as early as October 2026, which could pressure valuations, particularly in AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related sectors.Technical indicators point to further near-term weakness. The S&P 500 remains capped below its 20-day moving average, while the NYSE Advance/Decline line has broken below key support and flashed a bearish divergence, suggesting underlying distribution rather than accumulation. The S&P 500, one of the four major US benchmark stock indices, posted a 2.6% weekly decline, halting its 9-week streak of consecutive gains, and recorded its worst weekly performance since the week of 23 March 2026 during the depths of the US-Iran war.The bulk of last week’s losses came on Friday, 5 June, ex-post US non-farm payrolls induced a plunge of 2.64%, reinforcing a tighter liquidity condition ahead as Fed funds futures traders start to position for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve.Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool as of 9 June 2026, the increased odds of 63% that the Fed may start to enact its first 25 basis points (bps) rate hike as soon as the October 2026 FOMC meeting and another hike of 25 bps (63% chance) to come in April next year.This hawkish Fed funds rate repricing is likely to dampen the earlier optimistic revenue guidance reported during the first-quarter US earnings reporting session, especially in the AI-infrastructure and semiconductor sectors, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the S&P 500.Weak market breadth Fig. 1: S&P 500 medium-term trend with cumulative AD line as of 8 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The “buy-the-dip” behaviour seen in US semiconductor stocks on Monday, 8 June, when the PHLX Semiconductor index surged by 5.6% to lead the intraday recovery, could be a “bull trap” as market breadth was weak.Out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only three of them managed to notch gains on Monday: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%).Also, the cumulative Advance/Decline line of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has broken below a former medium-term ascending support after a bearish divergence condition, indicating a distribution pattern underneath rather than an accumulation after yesterday’s rally in US semiconductor stocks (see Fig. 1).Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectories (1 to 3 days) of the SPX 500 CFD (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures).Capped below the 20-day moving average Fig. 2: US SPX 500 CFD minor trend as of 9 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 7,496/522 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).Supports: 7,340/327 (8 May/19 May 2026 minor lows), 7,270 (1 May 2026 former minor high & Fibonacci extension), 7,200 (28 April/5 May 2026 congestion & Fibonacci extension).Next resistances: 7,566 (5 June 2026 minor high), 7,600 (2/5 June 2026 congestion).Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on SPX 500 CFD Yesterday’s rebound stalled at around 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor drop from the 5 June 2026 high to the 8 June 2026 low.Price actions remain below the 20-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a descending resistance at around the 50 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin is under strong selling pressure, falling over 17% in a week and dropping below USD 60,000. The decline was intensified by USD 532 million in long liquidations on Binance, which triggered additional forced selling.Market sentiment worsened after Strategy sold part of its bitcoin holdings. Although the sale was small — 32 BTC for USD 2.5 million — it raised concerns that the largest corporate bitcoin holder could make further sales in the future.The broader crypto market is weak due to macro and demand concerns. Strong U.S. labor data reduced hopes for rate cuts, retail investors are shifting toward AI-related tech stocks, ETF inflows remain too small to support prices, and security concerns after the Zcash vulnerability further damaged trust. Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure and has already lost more than 17 percent since the beginning of the week. On Friday, its price fell below the psychological barrier of USD 60,000, increasing investor concerns about a further deepening of the correction. Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week SMA for the first time in three years. From its all-time high near USD 126,000, the leading cryptocurrency has already lost more than half of its value. Weekly timeframe of Bitcoin, source: TradingView Long liquidations increase pressure on the marketThe scale of the declines was amplified by the forced closure of leveraged positions. Over the past 24 hours, long positions worth USD 532 million were liquidated on the Binance exchange. Such a large wave of liquidations shows that many investors betting on a bitcoin rebound were forced to close their positions, which further increased selling pressure in the market.This mechanism often deepens declines, as automatic liquidations lead to further sell orders. As a result, the market can move more sharply than would be implied solely by incoming macroeconomic data or the decisions of the largest investors.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale weighed on sentimentOne of the factors worsening sentiment was the news that Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and a company associated with Michael Saylor, had sold part of its bitcoin holdings. The company sold 32 bitcoins for USD 2.5 million. Although the transaction was small compared with the company’s overall portfolio, it carried significant symbolic weight.It was only Strategy’s second bitcoin sale since it began making purchases in 2020. The company explained the decision as necessary to pay coupons to holders of preferred shares, but investors interpreted it as a possible weakening of the long-standing narrative of holding bitcoin indefinitely. The market is primarily concerned that this small sale could foreshadow further, larger transactions in the future. This risk was highlighted by Peter Schiff, a well-known bitcoin critic, who stressed that the problem is not the scale of the current sale itself, but its potential consequences for investor confidence. Before this transaction, Strategy had reportedly purchased a total of 843,738 BTC for nearly USD 64 billion, which is why any change in the company’s strategy is being closely watched by the market.Declines spread across the entire cryptocurrency marketSelling pressure was not limited to bitcoin. Ethereum fell by around 23 percent over the week to USD 1,555, while Solana lost about 22 percent, dropping to USD 63.75. Weakness was also visible in shares of companies linked to cryptocurrencies. Strategy’s stock fell by almost 10 percent, while Coinbase shares declined by 8.4 percent. Weekly timeframe of Strategy (MSTR), source: TradingView A modest positive signal came from inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday after 13 days of outflows. However, the scale of these inflows, amounting to just over USD 3 million, was too small to change the overall market picture. In practice, this means that institutional demand remains too weak to effectively stop the current sell-off.Strong U.S. Data reduces hopes for rate cutsSentiment was also hurt by strong data from the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, clearly above expectations. Such data reduces the likelihood of swift interest rate cuts in the United States, which is unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Monthly change in United States Non Farm Payrolls, source: Trading Economics The strong labor market report weakened the narrative of imminent monetary policy easing, while bitcoin currently lacks a clear macroeconomic catalyst that could support a rebound.Retail investors shift their attention to tech stocksAn additional problem for the crypto market is the outflow of some retail investors toward technology stocks, especially companies linked to artificial intelligence. Retail investors have largely left the cryptocurrency market and returned to equities, making it difficult to identify new sources of demand for bitcoin.In an environment of weakening interest and a lack of fresh capital, every negative piece of news can trigger a stronger price reaction. This applies both to macroeconomic data and to decisions by major entities holding significant bitcoin reserves.Security issues weaken trust in CryptoThe cryptocurrency market is also struggling with concerns over trust in the security of blockchain technology. Investors paid particular attention to a vulnerability in the Zcash network, after which the cryptocurrency’s price fell by more than 40 percent in a single day. Developers fixed the bug, but they were unable to clearly determine whether it had been exploited to create additional tokens. This situation increased concerns that increasingly advanced artificial intelligence models may in the future help detect similar vulnerabilities in other cryptocurrency projects. For a market already under downward pressure, such information further worsens sentiment.Lack of new sources of demand makes a rebound difficultThe current sell-off in bitcoin is the result of several negative factors overlapping: strong U.S. economic data, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, investors shifting toward technology stocks, concerns about Strategy’s future actions, trust issues related to the security of some crypto projects, and the large scale of long liquidations in the leveraged instruments market.Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the lack of clear new sources of demand means that a quick and sustained rebound may be difficult. The market appears weakened, and investors are watching increasingly closely to see whether the drop below USD 60,000 proves to be only a brief breach of an important level or a continuation of the downward trend that began in October 2025. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways EUR/USD remains resilient ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a more aggressive tightening path than the Federal Reserve despite weak Eurozone growth.Interest-rate expectations are becoming increasingly supportive for the euro, with the Eurozone-US policy rate differential narrowing as markets price additional ECB rate hikes while the Federal Reserve faces a more balanced growth-versus-inflation trade-off.Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD may be forming a near-term base above key channel support at 1.1580, with improving momentum signalling a potential short-term recovery toward the 1.1645–1.1720 resistance zone. Ahead of today’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls release, the EUR/USD pair has been grinding sideways around the 1.1610-1.1620 zone, showing resilience amid a fundamentally strong US Dollar environment.Diverging growth vs. converging hawkishness The primary catalyst today will be the US labour market data. According to Reuters, the US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May, representing a slowdown from April’s 115,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.A “slow-hire, slow-fire” equilibrium continues to anchor the US labour market, keeping conditions stable enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its higher-for-longer stance. In fact, market pricing from the Fed funds futures market currently reflects a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed at its December 2026 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.Earlier this week, mixed signals, from stronger ADP and JOLTS data to an uptick in weekly jobless claims (225K), have kept traders cautious, clipping the USD slightly in recent sessions.On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro is being supported by an aggressively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Despite the Eurozone facing stagflation risks, with Q1 GDP growth a meagre 0.1% q/q, inflation remains sticky, hitting 3.2% y/y, largely driven by energy shocks.Consequently, the latest Reuters polling indicates the ECB is highly likely to hike its deposit rate to 2.25% next week, providing a solid floor for the single currency and countering the dollar’s strength.Further steepening of the Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread Fig. 1: Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Also, the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the Eurozone and the US, based on short-term interest rate futures, have steepened.The Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread in August 2026 has increased to -1.28% from June 2026’s print of -1.45% and shifted upwards from -1.45% three months ago (see Fig. 1).These observations suggest that the ECB is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the Fed, reinforcing a “floor” on the EUR/USD.Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.Forming a potential minor base above the medium-term ascending channel support Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bullish bias above 1.1580 medium-term pivotal support for a minor recovery (see Fig. 2).Resistances: 1.1645/1660 (also the 20-day moving average), 1.1685 (also the 200-day moving average), 1.1720 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of prior decline from 6 May 2026 high to 21 May 2026 low).Supports: 1.610/1595 (4 June 2026 minor low & medium-term ascending channel support from 13 Mar 2026 low), 1.1580 (MT pivot), 1.1555 (7 April 2026 congestion).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on EUR/USD The recent sideways movement in EUR/USD since 21 May 2026 has formed a base/floor just above the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since the 13 March 2026 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout after finding support on its ascending trendline, suggesting a potential resurgence of short-term bullish momentum. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The AI-driven equity rally is showing signs of fatigue after Broadcom’s disappointing guidance triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and cybersecurity stocks, prompting investors to rotate into more defensive and cyclical sectors.The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, while hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations supported industrial, financial, and value-oriented sectors.Indonesia has emerged as a major source of regional market stress, with the rupiah and local equities suffering significant capital outflows amid concerns over government intervention policies, raising broader emerging-market contagion risks across Asia.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor uptrend from 19 May 2026 at risk of breaking down below 30,535 key short-term resistance.Chart of the day - Nasdaq 100 at risk of minor corrective decline Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor ascending channel support, taken from the 19 May 2026 low, after it printed a fresh intraday all-time high of 30,773 on Wednesday, 5 June 2026.Yesterday’s bearish reaction close to the former ascending channel support implies that the minor uptrend phase from the 10 May 2026 low is in jeopardy.Watch the 30,535 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 30,000 near-term support may trigger a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average), and 29,410.However, a clearance with an hourly close above 30,535 invalidates the bearish tone and extends the bullish impulsive up move, with the current all-time high area at 30,728/795, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).Top macro headlines Tech sector wobbles on Broadcom outlook: Broadcom Inc. shares slumped 14% to 15% in premarket trading after its semiconductor revenue forecast fell short of expectations. This triggered a broader tech selloff that also hit cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike, which dropped 10%.Dow surges as oil eases: Reversing yesterday’s spike, WTI and Brent crude prices dropped by 2%-3% to fall back to around $95-83 a barrel as traders eyed a potential Iran deal following news of a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. This relief in energy costs propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 875 points (1.70%) to a record high.Middle East ceasefire complications: While oil prices initially fell on ceasefire hopes, US efforts to halt fighting in Lebanon were undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah movement rejected the new truce and Israel said it would not withdraw troops. Progress in US-Iran talks has also stalled.Indonesian markets plunge: Indonesian assets are in a severe selloff, with the benchmark stock index tumbling 36% from its record high five months ago, making it the worst-performing market globally this year. The rupiah fell by over 7% amid concerns about President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist policies.Key macro themes AI Enthusiasm meets reality check: The “parabolic” rally in semiconductor and AI stocks is taking a breather. Investors are rotating out of tech and into other sectors viewed as better positioned for a resilient economy, re-evaluating the immediate revenue returns of massive AI infrastructure spending.Emerging-market contagion risks: The rapid withdrawal of foreign capital from Indonesia underscores the vulnerability of emerging markets to populist political shifts. The South Korean won also fell to its weakest level since 2009 at 1,545 per USD, indicating broader pressure on Asian currencies as the Iran war drags on.Energy security and inflation: Oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with the Saudi energy minister calling for stability at a Russian economic forum to prevent a loss of energy sustainability. Markets are weighing whether oil-driven inflation pressures could force a US interest rate hike as soon as October.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped to 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1% in today’s early Asia session. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on sector rotation on Thursday, 4 June. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% amid its lower tech weighting. The UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.3%. Fixed Income: Shorter-term US Treasuries rebounded, with the US 2-year yield declining 4 basis points to 4.05% ahead of today’s US non-farm payroll report, while the US 10-year yield held steady at around 4.48%.FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.1%. The euro rose 0.4% intraday to $1.1645 before closing lower at $1.1611 on Thursday, 4 June. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 159.77-159.85 per USD before rebounding to 160.00 (close to prior intervention levels).Commodities: WTI crude fell by 3.4% to around $92.92/bbl. Spot gold rebounded by 0.9% to $4,475/oz but remained below its 20-day moving average at around $4,544/oz. Asia Pacific impact Tech-heavy markets suffer: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8% to 1.3%, dragged down by the US tech selloff. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 5% intraday, acting as a bellwether for regional AI investments. Across the board, weakness was seen in key Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices today: Nikkei 225 (-1.6%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.1%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-0.3%).Currency Interventions looming: The South Korean won hit its weakest level since 2009. Authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines are stepping up efforts to support their currencies as policymakers near the limits of their currency defences.Indonesian rout: The “sell Indonesia” trade is dominating the region, with massive foreign capital outflows from both bonds and equities following President Prabowo’s move to take direct control of key commodity exports.Top 3 events to watch today US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: +85K, Apr: +115K) Impact: All asset classesUS Unemployment Rate (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Apr: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classesUS-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran involving Kuwait and Bahrain reignited geopolitical concerns, driving oil prices sharply higher and triggering a broad risk-off move across global equity markets.The AI-led technology rally faced its first meaningful challenge after Broadcom's disappointing guidance raised concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure revenue growth, prompting investors to reassess near-term earnings expectations across the sector.Rising energy prices, resilient economic activity, and persistent inflation pressures have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a near-certain June rate hike from the European Central Bank.Chart of the day: WTI crude minor bullish trend remains intact above $95.10/bbl, key support with potential upside trigger at $100.00/bbl.Chart of the day - WTI crude minor bullish trend remains intact Fig.1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 4 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The minor bullish trend of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) from the last Friday, 29 May 2026 low of $88.90/bbl remains intact (see Fig. 1).Supported by an ascending trendline, watch the 95.10 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the 100.00 near-term resistance (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) is likely to reinforce a further potential minor recovery towards the next intermediate resistances at 102.56 and 106.70.On the flipside, failure to hold and an hourly close below 95.10 invalidates the bullish tone, setting up a choppy decline to retest the next intermediate supports at 91.40 and 89.00.Top macro headlines US-Iran clashes disrupt peace: Overnight clashes between the US and Iran involving Kuwait and Bahrain resulted in one of the most serious flare-ups since the early April ceasefire, driving a sharp risk-off rotation across global markets.Tech AI rally falters: Broadcom Inc. issued a disappointing forecast signalling decelerating AI-fueled sales growth. This dragged down the broader tech sector, overshadowing early enthusiasm for Alphabet Inc.’s upsized $84.75 billion equity raise and SpaceX’s planned $75 billion IPO at $135 a share.Inflation risks trigger hawkish bets: Resilient consumer demand, corporate job additions, and a fresh surge in energy costs are fueling expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Markets are increasingly betting the next Fed move will be a hike, while fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike for the ECB’s June 11 meeting.Key macro themes Geopolitical threat to energy supply: The renewed escalation in Middle East hostilities threatens to derail negotiations to extend the recent truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is directly pressuring global energy supply lines and pushing crude prices higher.AI growth meets reality check: The stark contrast between massive capital raises in the tech space and Broadcom’s weak forward guidance suggests the AI sector is facing resistance, prompting investors to re-evaluate the near-term revenue potential of AI infrastructure.Central banks cornered by inflation: The combination of a robust labour market and a sudden commodity shock leaves central bankers trapped. Policymakers are under immense pressure to raise or maintain borrowing costs to prevent inflation from reigniting, directly stalling the recent equity rally.Global market impact Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, snapping a nine-day winning streak. The Dow dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.3%. Software ETFs slid 4.3%. Globally, the MSCI World Index reversed early record highs, closing down 0.7%.Fixed Income: The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced 5 bps to 4.49%. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield rose 6 bps to 3.04%, and Britain’s 10-year yield climbed 7 bps to 4.93%.FX: The US Dollar Index rose 0.3% on safe-haven flows and hawkish rate bets. The Euro declined 0.3% to $1.1598, and the British Pound fell 0.3% to $1.3420.Commodities: WTI crude surged 2.8% to $96.20/bbl, while Brent briefly topped $97/bbl amid geopolitical fears. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,435/oz, pressured by higher yields and a stronger USD to retest its key 200-day moving average.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets are undergoing a setback: Moving in line with weak performances seen in the US stock market overnight, key Asia Pacific stock indices are on the defensive and in profit-taking mode in today’s Asia session, where intraday losses were seen across the board. Nikkei 225 (-1.4%), KOSPI (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.5%), China A50 (-1.5%), CSI 300 (-0.8%), ASX 200 (-1.2%), and STI (-1.2%).Trade & tariffs optimism: Sentiment was partially supported by expectations of potential US tariff reductions on non-critical Chinese goods. Based on 2025 figures, this could cover approximately 10% of US imports from China, potentially revitalising direct exports.Yen intervention watch: The Japanese yen remained under significant pressure, falling 0.1% to hover near a multi-decade low of 160.08 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, leaving markets highly alert to potential intervention by the Bank of Japan. Key near-term support for the USD/JPY rests at 159.45 (Wednesday, 3 June 2026, minor swing low).Top 4 events to watch today ECB President Lagarde Speech - 4:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesFed Speak (Barkin) - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesBoE Governor Bailey Speech - 11.40 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FSTE UK 100 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations combined with relentless AI-driven capital expenditure, boosting major indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, MSCI World, and Nikkei 225.The U.S. economy is displaying an increasingly pronounced “K-shaped” divergence, where AI-fuelled corporate investment and profits continue to surge. At the same time, consumer savings have fallen to near their lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending.Market leadership has become highly concentrated in technology and AI-related sectors, with Nvidia, Dell, Oracle, and other AI beneficiaries driving index gains. In contrast, most other sectors lag, highlighting growing concentration risk beneath record-high equity indices.Chart of the day: USD/JPY’s 4-week is losing upside momentum with risk of a minor corrective setback below 159.85 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines World benchmarks stock indices scale all-time highs on Trump assurances: Global risk sentiment exploded on Monday as the big three U.S. stock indices joined the MSCI World, MSCI EM, and Japan’s Nikkei in hitting new historic records. The broad advance followed statements from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that, despite fresh weekend military exchanges, Washington and Tehran remain engaged in active diplomatic discussions.U.S. manufacturing activity expands at 4-Year High: Defying structural headwinds from the regional oil shock and record-low consumer confidence, figures released on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity is growing at its fastest pace in four years. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 54.0 versus 52.7 in April, and came in above expectations of 53. The brisk expansion is being driven primarily by immense, front-loaded corporate capital expenditures in artificial intelligence.Anthropic leads flurry of multi-trillion dollar IPO filings: Wall Street’s AI frenzy reached a new milestone as generative AI champion Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering. With OpenAI preparing a parallel filing and SpaceX set to price its record-breaking listing later this month, institutional desks calculate that up to $4 trillion of new market capitalisation could debut in the coming weeks.NVIDIA moves AI edge computing directly to the PC Market: Shifting the competitive landscape for hardware developers, NVIDIA unveiled a new specialised architecture chip engineered to embed generative AI capabilities directly into standard laptops and desktop personal computers.U.S. consumer savings pool erased to pre-crisis low: Highlighting a severe “K-shaped” economic divergence, real economic metrics show the U.S. personal savings rate has plummeted to a four-year low of 2.6%. Excluding a brief anomaly in June 2022, the buffer is now tracking at its lowest overall absolute level since the 2008 global financial crisis.Key macro themes The multi-speed K-shaped consumer chasm: While corporate America, riding the AI infrastructure boom, enjoys near-historic profit expansions, everyday consumers are facing severe cost-of-living constraints. The rapid rate at which the population is depleting its savings buffers to sustain retail spending is a flashing warning to macroeconomists that current domestic consumption models are structurally unsustainable.The imbalance in extreme sector equity concentration: Although broad market averages notched pristine records, the underbelly of Monday’s Wall Street session exposed highly fragile technical leadership. Only two out of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors finished in positive territory: technology (+2.5%) and energy (+1.9%). The remaining nine sectors fell broadly on Monday, 1 June, led by a 3% plunge in defensive utilities and a 2.6% drop in consumer discretionaries.Geopolitical supply volatility and the energy buffer draw: Renewed weekend military strikes between the U.S. and Iran in Kuwait and Lebanon instantly revived global supply anxieties. It comes at a highly critical juncture for physical fuel markets, where a historic 15-week streak of national gasoline stockpile drawdowns has left the system without an operational buffer heading into peak summer driving season.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street’s indices pushed to record closings, spearheaded by specialised tech clusters. Major individual corporate gainers included Dell (+10%), Oracle (+10%), and Nvidia (+6%), while Micron topped the historic $1,000 threshold. Hewlett-Packard exploded by 28% in after-hours trade following earnings. Conversely, hardware laggards included Qualcomm (-9%), Meta (-5%), and Intel (-5%). Europe and the UK finished lower on Monday, 1 June; DAX (-0.4%), FTSE 100 (-0.7%).Fixed Income: Sovereign bond markets faced steady selling pressure. Strong local manufacturing activity and structural stagflationary elements pushed U.S. Treasury yields up across the curve by as much as 3 basis points.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index displayed broad upward dominance. The USD/JPY pair advanced aggressively toward the critical 160.00 intervention threshold. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) and Swedish Krona dropped close to 1.0% to pace G10 losses, while the Argentine Peso (-1.5%) led emerging market declines.Commodities: Crude oil prices spiked violently on geopolitical backsliding. Global benchmark Brent and WTI crude surged by 4%-5%. Non-yielding spot gold retreated by 1,2% after the rejection of its 20-day moving average to close at $4,485/oz on Monday, 1 June, on the backdrop of firmer US Treasury yields.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets break higher: Regional indices captured strong positive spillover from global tech allocations. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to a historic high, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 establishing fresh record peaks and South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index exploding by 4.0% in a massive single-session breakout. In today’s Asia opening session, profit-taking has emerged amid conflicting narratives on the progress of US-Iran peace talks; Nikkei 225 (-1.1%), KOSPI (-1.1%), China A50 (-1%), ASX 200 (-1%). In comparison, STI bucked the trend with an intraday gain of 0.3%.Macro energy strains and imports: The severe commodity spike imposes immediate burdens on regional trading balances. Data show that China’s crude oil imports plummeted to a 10-year low in May, driven by worsening domestic economic conditions and high international invoice costs.Top 3 events to watch today Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Prelim (May) - 5:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.4% y/y, Apr: 2.2%) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXFed Speak (Hammack) - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, Short-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal progress news flows Impact: All asset classes.Chart of the day - USD/JPY is losing upside momentum Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 2 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The 3% rally in USD/JPY from its intraday low of 155.03 on 6 May 2026 is now showing signs of minor exhaustion.The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition and exited its overbought level on Monday, 1 June 2026.Watch the 159.85 key short-term pivotal resistance with risk of a corrective setback towards the intermediate supports of 159.10 and 158.80 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 1).However, a break and an hourly close above 159.85 invalidates the setback scenario and opens the door for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances/prior intervention zones at 160.23/45 and 160.65. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways WTI crude oil is on track for its worst monthly performance since April 2025, down 16% in May as easing US-Iran tensions reduce geopolitical risk premium.Technical signals remain bearish, as WTI trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages within a descending channel.Further downside risks remain in play toward the US$87.60 and US$81.94/85 support zones unless WTI breaks above the key US$95.10 resistance. The former red-hot West Texas crude oil is looking to end the month of May 2026 on a bearish footing, an intra-session monthly decline of 16% (at this time of writing), its first negative month after four months of consecutive gains, and on the verge of recording its worst monthly performance since April 2025.WTI crude from outperformer to underperformer Fig. 1: Major cross-asset performances from 1 May 2026 to 28 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The ongoing weakness in crude oil prices has been primarily due to a potential end to the current three-month US-Iran conflict, which is likely to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforced by a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and, separately, to launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. This sticky point caused the breakdown in US-Iran negotiations over the past month.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has now become the worst performer among major cross-asset classes in May, with WTI crude oil futures notching a double-digit loss of 13% from 1 May 2026 to Thursday, 28 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI crude – Oscillating within a minor descending channel Fig. 2: West Texas crude oil CFD minor trend as of 29 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Minor downtrend within medium-term range configuration with 95.10 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).Supports: 87.60 (20 Apr 2026 gap), and 81.94/85 (17 Apr/11 Mar 2026 low & minor descending channel’s lower boundary).Next resistances: 97.40 (26 May 2026 high), 100.00 (psychological, 20-day & 50-day Mas), and 102.56 (22 May 2026 high & 61.6% Fibonacci retracement from 19 May 2026 high to 29 May 2026 intraday low).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the WTI crude Price actions have formed a minor descending channel since the 20 May 2026 highPrice actions remain below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 25 May 2026.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level and has not reached its oversold region (below the 30 level). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsGlobal Assets have all pushed for the pricing of a now decisive peace process between the US and Iran after two full months of ceasefireStock Markets have all exploded to new highs, but this also adds to the expectations of a concrete deal ahead Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Global asset prices are now being driven by the fast-moving peace process between the United States and Iran. After two months of a fragile ceasefire, the situation has quickly moved from a tense standoff to real progress toward a formal agreement. This shift is causing major investors in North America and around the world to move their money in response.The main reason for this big change came on Monday, when President Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries – For those who haven’t heard the term, an MoU is a non-binding agreement that sets out the basic terms and expectations for a future treaty. This agreement gives both sides 30 days to fully reopen the important Strait of Hormuz and includes economic concessions to Iran to help the talks succeed. Even though there were a few minor military incidents overnight, Wall Street is largely ignoring them. Traders are focused on the Memorial Day announcement and believe the push for peace is strong enough to overcome small setbacks. Oil 4H Chart. May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView This breakthrough has had a major impact on energy markets. WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped sharply, falling back to the low $90 range. Prices have stayed around these lows all week, showing that a large part of the war anxiety pricing is already fading.As energy costs fall and supply chain risks fade, major North American stock indices have surged to new record highs, particularly Nasdaq reaching 30,000. Investors are optimistic right now, but this rapid rise means there is no room for mistakes in the peace process. The market is now counting on a clear and successful final agreement.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Cryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookMarkets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indices are once again exploding higher, with Japan putting the most impressive catch up to its past week losses and Nasdaq following close.Overall, the rebound is global with the Strait of Hormuz new largely soothing investors.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action in the US Dollar is quite contradicting in recent days, but is starting to tilt more to one side.After bouncing above 99.00 last week, the DXY led a few tests within the 500 pips region (99.00 to 99.50) and after yesterday's bounce, sellers are appearing at the 4H 50-period MA indicating a failed rally – More developments will be awaited to see how this really unfolds.Check out our past day US Dollar analysis to learn more:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 27, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is pursuing its rebound against FX Majors but is currently losing some steam as the conflict looks to be ending soon – Crude Oil maintains high correlation to the petrodollar, hence traders will need to continue to observe this development.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 27, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is losing quite some momentum against most of its FX peers except for the Aussie Dollar, with Crude Oil lower which directly affects the Loonie.The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may diminish Canadian Oil export demand. USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView For those following the weekly update, you may have tracked one of the clearest patterns in FX in recent times:USD/CAD maintains its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range, with the action continuing to rebound within as we speak, approaching the upper end of it – Watch reactions to the 1.3850 micro resistance.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3850 Resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)1.3950 Range high resistanceSupport Levels:1.38 mini-Pivot +/- 15 pips1.3750 Momentum Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar It is the final Mid-Week update, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website to learn more.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets bounced at the open but are now showing more mixed signs as a few contention points emergeAfter flashing to new all-time highs, a pullback is currently ongoing particularly in the DJIAExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock markets jumped sharply at the opening bell, but now the signals are mixed as new diplomatic issues come to light.The early surge in equity futures came from a more optimistic geopolitical outlook, mainly after President Trump's weekend announcement predicting the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days. But as traders come back from their Memorial Day break and more money enters the market, it is clear that reaching a formal peace is more complicated than the headlines first made it seem.Crude Oil fell 7% during yesterday's quiet holiday session, but energy prices are rebounding strongly today. Ongoing issues, especially about frozen Iranian funds and where enriched nuclear material will go, are pushing WTI crude higher. This sharp rise in energy costs is adding back to prior worries on the feasibility of a proper peace deal and causing trouble in the wider financial markets.As a result, after briefly reaching new all-time highs before the market opened, the main US indices are now pulling back from their morning highs, particularly the Dow.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Daily Market Performance (12:07). May 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: AUD/NZD rally set to continue after hitting 13-year highAsia open: Trump-Iran peace optimism sparks equity rally as sticky U.S. inflation risks loom largeCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:10) – Source: TradingView – May 26, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Watch out to see if the 50,400 to 50,500 support holds or breaks – The action becomes short-term bearish below the area.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq wicked to the 30,000 milestone (30,057 on the CFD) but is now slightly retracting, showing a hesitation hammer.Look for breakouts on its upper and lower bounds – 29,730.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,850 - 30,000 Memorial Day ATH ResistanceCurrent ATH 30,057 on the CFDSupport Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is somewhat retracting off of its new record highs established during the morning session.The Momentum is turning more bearish as we speak a bulls will have to step up at the current level to avoid a larger pullback to the 4H 50-period MA (7,448).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Memorial Day ATH Resistance7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivotCurrent ATH 7,557Support Levels7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key support 7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US stock markets opened with strong optimism, but other asset classes are not as confident. While equities are rising, catching up to their previous session's futures runs, currency and commodity markets remain cautious about the unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic talks.The overall geopolitical outlook seems positive, as both sides have agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days and work toward a long-term peace process within 60 days. Still, a final agreement is proving difficult. Reports show that Iranian negotiators are stuck on key issues, especially the release of frozen funds and where Tehran's enriched nuclear stockpiles will go.Ongoing diplomatic tensions are causing a quick shift in the commodities market, leading to a rebound in Crude oil prices, especially Brent. The continued geopolitical risks and concerns about inflation are giving strong support to the US Dollar, the subject of this morning's analysis Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. May 26, 2026 Even though hopes for peace are pushing risk assets to new highs, the US Dollar remains strong, going against the general trend. We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to spot how the recent peace flows have already impacted the FX Market and where to look next. Discover:Asia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyTrump cancels planned attacks on Iran, Stocks rally – Market reactionsThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is currently consolidating between 99.00 and 99.50, a much higher range compared to the end-April trading (closer to 98.00).Bulls are actually pushing the action above the 4H 50-period MA as we speak, and this points to a coming test of the upper bound of the range.With the RSI momentum also picking up, the action looks to be more bullish for the US dollar in coming times – Watch for reactions at the 99.50 to see if momentum continues to pick up from there.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Resistance (range highs)Initial War Spike 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels99.00 Intraday Pivot (range lows)98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot now supportSupport 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportRange lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart, May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView GBP/USD kept rallying above the pivot zone but stalled right at its 4H 200-period (1.35).Currently retracing back to the pivot zone, the action is more mixed than fully bearish, hence traders could wait for either a double top (around the MA) or a break below 1.3420 (50-MA) to push for lower action.Any close above the 200-MA adds more bullish momentum.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance Levels4H 200-period (1.35)December Resistance 1.36 (range highs)pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.38Support LevelsKey Pivot 1.34 to 1.3440Pivotal Support 1.3280 - 1.331.32 War SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is rejecting its 4H 50-period MA with the RSI momentum also turning bearish, pointing to more downside ahead.Failing to breach the mid-level of the longer-run bear channel, the lower bound (1.1580) could soon be retested.Any break and close above 1.1660 voids the bear formation.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsPivot 1.1635 - 1.16551.17 to 1.1720 March ResistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highsSupport Levels1.1580 channel lower bound1.1540 to 1.1580 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equity markets rallied as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement boosted risk appetite, driving a sharp pullback in oil prices and renewed buying in Asian and U.S. equities.Despite improving geopolitical sentiment, financial markets continue to price in a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment as sticky U.S. inflation and elevated bond yields reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may still tighten policy later this year.Asia Pacific markets were led by Japan’s strong equity surge and Singapore’s stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth. At the same time, policymakers across the region remain highly sensitive to ongoing energy supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.Chart of the day: Hang Seng Index’s potential short-term rebound on sight above 25,267 key short-term support with 25,850 as upside trigger level.Top macro headlines Imminent U.S.-Iran peace deal speculation sparks market turnaround: Global risk appetite surged following a flurry of "optimistic messaging" from U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggesting that an imminent peace deal between the United States and Iran is on the horizon. The sudden wave of diplomatic optimism triggered a swift reversal of global concerns about stagflation.Iran downplays imminent pact, citing Hormuz specifics: Countering the initial wave of Washington optimism, Tehran issued a cautious statement clarifying that a possible memorandum of understanding does not yet contain critical specifics regarding the Strait of Hormuz, warning market participants that a comprehensive deal is not immediate.Japan eased market concerns over government finances: Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said the government will finance its extra budget without increasing bond issuance on a calendar basis. The supplementary budget will total just over 3 trillion yen and will be submitted to parliament as early as next week, with energy subsidies to be a key feature.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino reaffirmed the BoJ’s rate hike path: BoJ’s Himino, in his testimony to the Diet (Japan’s parliament), highlighted the central bank’s commitment to raising interest rates, while flagging that the timing of the rate hikes will be dependent on Middle East developments that affect Japan’s growth and inflation trend.Key macro themes Geopolitical "whiplash" and energy fragility: Cross-asset markets are currently caught in a sharp tug-of-war between speculative peace breakthroughs and tangible, physical supply realities. While optimistic traders are driving short-covering rallies, independent energy researchers (IEA) warn that global oil inventories are set to reach critical levels by June, potentially sending crude prices soaring past $150/bbl if the Hormuz blockade is not structurally resolved.The repricing of "higher for longer" into active tightening: Before the escalation of the Iran war, macro participants expected two to three Fed rate cuts in 2026. Following a brutal string of sticky consumer price metrics (headline CPI climbing to 3.8% and core PCE expected to edge up to 3.3%), the Fed funds futures market has completely erased easing expectations, pivoting toward an active probability of a Fed interest rate hike by December 2026.The trillion-dollar primary market liquidity drain: The combined arrival of SpaceX's mammoth $75 billion capital call alongside a confidential draft IPO filing from OpenAI signals a structural shift in equity markets. This tech-focused listing boom represents a major real-time test of public liquidity and investor risk appetite.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: U.S. stock index futures pointed higher, buoyed directly by the sudden wave of optimism surrounding the Trump-Iran memorandum. This follows a quiet Memorial Day market closure in the U.S. and UK, where equity sentiment remained strongly constructive despite underlying yield concerns.Fixed Income: Developed bond markets face intense multi-speed pressures despite a softening of oil prices due to a potential peace deal between the US and Iran. U.S. Treasuries remain deeply unanchored, with long-dated yields resting near 2007 highs as the 30-year yield continued to hold at the 5% psychological level.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened marginally as capital reallocated out of safe-haven cash positions and back into risk-correlated cross-border pairs, offering temporary structural relief to G10 and emerging currencies. AUD (+0.7%), GBP (+0.6%), and EUR (+0.4%) against the USD on Monday, 25 May.Commodities: Crude oil plummeted aggressively, with Brent crude briefly slipping below the critical $100/barrel milestone to click a fresh two-week low as geopolitical war premium leaked out. Conversely, spot gold prices rebounded by 1,3% as a softening greenback triggered a technical bounce to close Monday’s session at $4,570/oz but remained below the 20-day moving average that is acting as near-term resistance at $4,602/oz.Asia Pacific impact Japanese equities explode to all-time highs: Tokyo led global markets in a massive single-session breakout, with the benchmark Nikkei average surging 3% to lock a record high as local allocators aggressively bet on a rapid resolution to the Middle East supply crisis. In today’s Asia opening session, profit-taking activities have emerged in the Japanese stock market as the Nikkei 225 slipped by 0.4%, while other regional benchmark stock indices traded positively, such as the Hang Seng Index (+0.2%), China A50 (+0.2%), and KOSPI (+3.4%), which are showing intraday gains.Singapore Q1 GDP blows past estimates: Backed heavily by the regional AI infrastructure boom, Singapore reported stellar Q1 GDP growth of 6.0% y/y, handily beating consensus expectations. However, the Ministry faces highly mixed forward prospects tied to persistent Middle East maritime shocks.Regional currency stabilization: Parallel to the softening of the greenback, the broader Asia FX complex firmed notably, easing immediate balance-of-payments capital flight risks for energy-importing central banks.Top 4 events to watch today Japan Leading Economic Index Final (Mar) - 1:00 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, Nikkei 225Singapore Industrial Production (Apr) - 1:00 pm SGT (consensus: 12% y/y, Mar: 10.1%) Impact: USD/SGD, SGD crosses, STIUS Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May) - 10:00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Short-term rebound in Hang Seng Index above April gap support Fig. 1: Hong Kong 33 CFD minor trend as of 26 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The recent 6.6% decline seen in the price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from its intraday high of 26,642 has managed to find support at the early April 2026 gap support of 25,267.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to display short-term bullish momentum conditions after a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region flashed out earlier on 22 May 2026.Watch the 25,267 key short-term pivotal support for a potential rebound. A clearance above 25,850 (potential upside trigger) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 26,080 and 26,210.On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 25,267 invalidates the bullish scenario for a further corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,890 and 24,606. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equity markets extended their relief rally as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement boosted risk appetite, triggering strong gains in Asian and U.S. stock indices while crude oil prices continued to retreat.Japan’s softer-than-expected April inflation data reduced pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy aggressively, reinforcing yen weakness and widening the policy divergence versus the hawkish Federal Reserve.Cooling bond yields and easing geopolitical tensions provided fresh support for growth and technology stocks, while improving labour relations at Samsung Electronics helped reduce concerns over semiconductor supply-chain disruptions.Chart of the day - Nikkei 225 kickstarts new bullish impulsive up move sequence towards new all-time highs above 61,955 key short-term support.Top macro headlines U.S.-Iran peace deal reaches "in progress": Global market sentiment shifted gear to “risk on” dramatically after Iran said the latest proposal from the US has partly bridged the gap between them, increasing the odds of a peace deal.Japan April CPI cools to 4-year low: Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 1.4% year-on-year in April, coming in softer than market forecasts of 1.7%. Also, the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation data, the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy), rose at a slower pace of 1.9% y/y versus 2.4% in March. This reading marked the lowest level since July 2024 and fell below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, largely due to government fuel subsidies offsetting the Iran war oil shock.Key macro themes Geopolitical "risk on" volatility unlocked: Capital markets are actively pricing out the prolonged geopolitical risk premium. The temporary pause in Middle East military escalation has triggered immediate short-covering across multiple asset classes, especially boosting airlines and tech while tanking crude oil.Diverging central bank paths: While the Fed minutes signal potential rate hikes due to sticky US inflation, the Bank of Japan finds itself with renewed breathing room. Japan's unexpectedly soft 1.4% y/y core CPI and 1.9% y/y core-core CPI prints suggest less urgency for immediate aggressive tightening, despite the ongoing weakness of the yen.The billion-dollar Tech IPO thaw: Led by SpaceX seeking a $1.75 trillion public footprint and OpenAI moving into confidential prospectus filings, the multi-trillion dollar tech listings boom is shifting structural market liquidity back toward equities.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Global equities experienced a massive relief rally. Wall Street rallied for the second consecutive session with a fresh-all time closing high seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The energy sector lagged (-1%). Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields pulled back, providing much-needed relief from the recent historic debt selloff. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slid for the second consecutive session by 1 bps to 4.57%, and the longer-term 30-year yield fell by 3 bps to 5.09%.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded almost unchanged on Thursday, 21 May, capped by renewed risk-on appetite. The Japanese yen faced depreciation pressure following the softer-than-expected Japan CPI data, as it probed the 159.10/35 per USD level that may trigger verbal intervention.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil saw losses for the second consecutive session, dropping by 1.1% and 0.2% on Wednesday, 21 May, as the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East conflict evaporated on peace hopes. Meanwhile, spot gold traded almost unchanged at $4,543/oz, below its 20-day moving average ($4,611/oz). Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Benchmark Asia Pacific stock indices kick-start today’s session on a bullish footing, reinforced by overnight gains seen in the US stock market. Nikkei 225 (+1.8%), Hang Seng Index (+0.5%), KOSPI (+0.5%), ASX 200 (+0.4%), and STI (+0.2%) at this time of writing.Currencies & monetary policy: The Indonesian Rupiah caught a significant bid and strengthened after Bank Indonesia implemented an interest rate hike to defend the currency. Conversely, Japan's unexpectedly soft CPI data gives the Bank of Japan breathing room, further complicating efforts to defend the yen from speculative short selling.Corporate & supply chain: Providing a major tailwind for regional tech, the Samsung union officially suspended its planned strike after reaching a tentative pay deal, easing severe risks to global semiconductor and memory supply chains.Top 3 Events to watch today UK Retail Sales (Apr) - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 1.3% y/y, Mar: 1.7%) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May) - 10:00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indicesUpdates on U.S.-Iran peace deal Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 en route to fresh all-time high Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD minor trend as of 22 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The recent bullish reversal seen on the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) after a break below and a reintegration back above its 20-day moving average on Wednesday, 20 May 2026, has suggested that a new potential bullish impulsive up move sequence is underway towards new record highs.Watch the 61,955 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias. A clearance above the current all-time area of 63,270/788 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 65,010/040 and 66,190/558 (Fibonacci extension clusters).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 61,955 invalidates the bullish scenario, potentially leading to a minor corrective setback to retest the 20-day moving average at 60,985. Further weakness is possible, with potential to extend towards the next intermediate support at 59,048/58,574. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin retraced from the $80,000 level, along with other altcoins, and they are lagging the US Equities after the latest US-Iran peace draftCryptos have been consolidating for a while, but present interesting technical indications – A trap or an opportunity?Exploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin has pulled back from the important $80,000 level, and this drop has also affected the wider altcoin market.Right now, cryptocurrencies are somewhat falling behind US stocks after the recent US-Iran peace draft. Nasdaq, normally highly correlated to digital assets, has quickly moved back toward new highs thanks to optimism about diplomacy, but despite the correlations, cryptocurrencies have barely moved.This clear difference shows that digital assets are not following the usual trends in the broader market, at least for now.Cryptocurrencies have been stuck in a long period of relative sideways movement, unable to break out as some traders hoped. This may have been frustrating for those looking for quick gains, but there are still some interesting technical signals to watch. The big question now is whether this slow price action is a warning sign or a chance to buy at a discount. Total Crypto Market Cap – Daily Chart. May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The digital asset market has shown resilience by bouncing off important moving averages, even though there has not been a big surge in retail trading. If overall market sentiment remains positive and the peace talks continue to hold, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could soon rally and make up for lost ground compared to tech stocks – But this will depend on if investors can remain hopeful about the deal and its effect. Daily Crypto Performance (16:48). May 21, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here. Read More:Stock Markets stall, too early for the deal ? Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe deal is still quite unsure, Crude Oil back above $100 – WTI Technical analysisAUD/USD picks up momentum ahead of Australian employment – In-depth FX analysisBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin has broken its recent upward channel that brought the action above $80,000, but lookign at current trading, the action is far from bearish.The pullback stalled right at the 4H 200-period MA ($77,000) and is currently acting as support.Bouncing back above $78,800, the 4H 50 MA, opens the way for a new test of a higher break.On the other hand, bears will want to see a break of the 200 MA with an extension below $75,000.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:4H 200-period MA ($77,000)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February LowsResistance Levels:$78,800 the 4H 50 MA$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (entering, bullish above)$82,500 cycle highs$90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, May 21, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is still showing a somewhat weaker price action than Bitcoin, but is finding support at the bottom of its major Pivot region (~$2,100).Rebounding from here should relaunch better prospects for a rebound, but the action isn't showing much impulse from here.A bounce above $2,200 (50-period MA) should clear the path for more bullish action ahead.For bears, look for a clean break and close below $2,100.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:Pivot Zone Lows $2,100$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:4H 50 MA $2,200Mini-Resistance $2,400$2,500 to $2,800 June 2025 Pivotal Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global markets staged a strong relief rally after U.S. President Donald Trump signalled that a U.S.-Iran peace deal is entering its “final stages,” triggering a sharp unwind in geopolitical risk premiums and sending oil prices down 5%.NVIDIA delivered blockbuster Q1 earnings with revenue surging 85% year-over-year to US$81.6 billion, but its share price dropped -1.3% in after-hours trading.Federal Reserve policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation, with the latest Fed minutes showing openness toward potential future rate hikes, even as bond yields temporarily eased from recent multi-decade highs.Chart of the day: AUD/USD bearish reaction after retest on 20-day MA, reversing almost all of Wednesday’s gains. 0.7180 key short-term resistance to maintain intraday bearish sentiment on the Aussie.Top macro headlines U.S.-Iran peace deal reaches "final stages": Global risk sentiment shifted drastically after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran are in the "final stages" of negotiating a peace deal to end the conflict. Trump previously called off a planned retaliatory strike following a new proposal from Tehran, snapping a multi-day market panic.Nvidia destroys expectations with blowout earnings but its share slides -1.3% after-hours: Chip giant Nvidia reported record-shattering earnings for the April quarter, with sales reaching $81.6 billion (up 85% year-over-year) and net income more than tripling to $58.3 billion. The numbers beat analyst expectations across the board, supporting its position as the world's most valuable publicly listed company at a $5.5 trillion market cap.Fed minutes reveal openness to rate hikes: The newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve's April policy meeting showed that multiple policymakers remain open to an interest rate hike if inflation proves persistent. The committee all but retired the rate-cut debate as structural price pressures linger ahead of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking the helm.SpaceX files for massive history-making IPO: Elon Musk's SpaceX officially filed for its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO). Looking to raise tens of billions of dollars, the mid-June listing is on track to eclipse every other blockbuster IPO in history, splitting its rocket-launch, satellite, and nascent AI units.Japan reactor makers forecast nuclear resurgence: Following a decade-long lull, Japan's top reactor manufacturers are projecting record sales amid a major domestic nuclear power resurgence. Concurrently, Tokyo announced plans to unleash green bonds focused heavily on EV batteries and clean technology.Read more: NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical: Potential mean reversion decline below 236.54 as earnings loomKey macro themes Geopolitical "risk on" realignment: Energy and capital markets are rapidly pricing out the immediate war premium after weeks of supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden multi-percentage drop in crude highlights a volatile shift from stagflation fears back toward pro-growth assets.Bond market pressure limits central bank independence: Despite the single-session relief rally in bonds, long-dated yields remain near multi-decade highs, with the U.S. 30-year yield touching 5.20%. This persistent structural inflation pressure has forced President Trump to cool his aggressive public demands for immediate interest rate cuts from the Fed.AI hardware and startup funding dominance: Nvidia's stellar $81.6B print, paired with Anthropic projecting a 130% revenue surge to $10.9B for its first profitable quarter, demonstrates that the AI infrastructure supercycle shows no signs of structural deceleration. OpenAI is also reported to be preparing a confidential draft prospectus for an upcoming IPO.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak, with the main U.S. indices rallying over 1% on peace deal optimism. Tech (+2%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2.5%) led the charge, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.5%. Europe and the UK gained 1% and 1.5% respectively.Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields tumbled sharply, marking their biggest single-day decline since late March. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points, while UK yields posted widespread double-digit drops across the entire curve.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened by 0.2%. The Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Swedish Krona emerged as the top G10 gainers on renewed global risk appetite.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil plummeted by 5% as geopolitical premium evaporated on the final-stage peace talks between the US and Iran. Non-yielding spot gold edged slightly higher by 1.4% to $4,544/oz, bouncing off its recent 1.5-month lows as interest rate anxieties temporarily moderated but remained below its 20-day moving average at $4,622/oz.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Semiconductor and tech supply chains are expected to gain a strong tailwind today, following Nvidia's blowout earnings and Samsung's union tentatively suspending its strike. Major Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices are trading in positive territory in today’s Asia opening session. Nikkei 225 (+3.4%), KOSPI (+6.6%), Hang Seng Index (+0.5%), China A50 (+0.7%), ASX 200 (+1.7%), and STI (+0.3%) at this time of writing.Currencies & interventions: Bank Indonesia's unexpected 0.5% policy interest rate hike successfully lifted the Rupiah, combating multi-month capital outflows. The Japanese yen stabilized near 159 per USD as Tokyo continued to threaten immediate intervention ahead of the 160 threshold. The Aussie fell 0.5% against the USD, almost reversing all of yesterday’s gains, reinforced by weak labour data as the unemployment rate for April jumped to 4.5% from 4.3% in March.Top 4 events to watch today Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Prelim (May) - 4.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Prelim (May) - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices, US TreasuriesUS S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Prelim (May) - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices, US Treasuries, GoldChart of the day - AUD/USD bearish reaction at 20-day MA Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor uptrend as of 21 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price action of AUD/USD exhibited a bearish reaction after a retest of the 20-day moving average. The Aussie fell by -0.4% intraday in today’s Asia session, almost reversing all of the gains seen on Wednesday, 20 May 2026.Technically speaking, the AUD/USD remains entrenched in a minor downtrend phase since its failure to break above 0.7265 (the swing highs of 4 May 2022 and 3 June 2022) on three recent occasions (6 May, 13 May, and 14 May) (see Fig. 1).Watch the 0.7180 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the near-term bearish bias. A break below 0.7085 (Tuesday, 19 May 2026 low) exposes the next intermediate supports at 0.7055 and 0.7030 in the first step.However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.7180 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.7233 and 0.7265. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsAfter the US-China Summit, Markets are quickly moving towards the newer themes and these are not light ones, with the new Fed Chair repricing and confusion in the Middle EastA classic US Dollar rally has gripped all assets, from the riskiest in Crypto all the way to Bonds and Metals, with traders pricing austere Fed balance sheet policy. Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Now that the US-China summit has wrapped up, financial markets are quickly moving on.Institutions are now focusing on bigger macroeconomic issues, especially the major changes expected with new Federal Reserve leadership and the ongoing stalemate in the Middle East. The President has set a new deadline, but progress remains slow.The geopolitical situation is still at a standstill. Although another violent conflict is not expected by most in the market, a clear diplomatic solution is also out of reach.Markets remain uncertain, with Polymarket showing only a 35% chance of a peace deal by the end of June. This ongoing uncertainty keeps risk levels high in global energy supply chains, even though the threat of war is no longer making headlines – Oil has persistently held above $100 in the past two weeks. Oil 4H Chart. May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The main force behind this week’s market moves is the Federal Reserve. After being confirmed by the Senate last Thursday, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the new Fed Chair this Friday and traders are already trying to price what's next. Markets are already adjusting for what could be a major shift in US monetary policy. Investors expect big changes to how the Fed gives guidance, measures inflation, and manages its balance sheet. With so much uncertainty, the only clear expectation is a more hawkish and restrictive central bank. This shift toward a more hawkish Fed has sparked a strong US Dollar rally, putting pressure on the wider financial markets. As traders adjust to the idea of tighter Fed policies and less global liquidity, demand for the dollar keeps rising.The strong dollar is drawing capital away from almost every other asset class. Riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies, are falling sharply as speculation leaves the market.At the same time, bonds are selling off quickly, causing yields to rise as markets expect less support from the central bank. Even precious metals are losing their safe-haven appeal as yields climb.Looking ahead to the end of the week, everyone is watching Friday’s swearing-in of Kevin Warsh to see if his first comments as Fed Chair will confirm the market’s concerns about a more hawkish approach.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical: Potential mean reversion decline below 236.54 as earnings loomAsia open: Surging 30-year bond yield flirts with 5.20% as market eyes Nvidia and Bank of England dilemmaMetals suffer from their upside fake-out – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indices have mostly struggled in the past week, particularly in Japan – But North American benchmarks have remained mostly stable.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is actually back much higher compared to its beginning of May base.After a long consolidation around and below 98.00, bulls have retaken control with the hawkish repricing from the Warsh Trade and overall hot inflation data.To explore levels for action, check out our latest DXY in-depth article (along with a few FX Pairs).US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 20, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is now up against all major currencies, after a signficiant shift in demand since the confimation of Kevin Warsh at the head of the Federal Reserve.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 20, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar also caught up against the majority of its FX peers, with the US Dollar being the only exception.The Loonie had lost quite some throughout the last month and largely diverged from the evolution in WTI Crude Prices – The catch up trade came from the CAD! USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD continues to rebound within its longer-run 1.3550 and 1.3950 range, now coming close to break above the middle of it.The extreme of the range is at 1.3950, so that leaves some space for continued upside. Still, keep a close eye on the resistance levels before this and the general direction of the US DollarLevels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)1.3950 Range high resistanceSupport Levels:1.3750 Momentum Pivot1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Some important data is expected to release in the coming week, including Consumer Sentiment (US) and Retail Sales (for Canada) on Friday, The most important however will be Kevin Warsh's swearing-in, with remarks expected on Friday (10:00)And don't forget the US PMIs tomorrow morning!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways NVIDIA remains the critical bellwether for the global AI capex cycle, with earnings expected to determine whether hyperscaler demand continues to accelerate or begins to plateau after a strong multi-month rally.Market expectations are extremely elevated, with options pricing implying a ~6–7% post-earnings move (~$350B market-cap swing), making guidance on data centre revenue, Blackwell execution, and hyperscaler capex the key catalysts.Technically, NVIDIA shows early signs of relative strength deterioration despite its medium-term uptrend, with bearish divergence and Fibonacci exhaustion near 234.90 suggesting risk of a multi-week mean reversion toward 212–195 support zones. Ahead of today’s NVIDIA Q1 earnings release after the US session close, NVDA remains the single most important stock in global equities because it effectively determines whether the Artificial Intelligence (AI) capex supercycle is still accelerating.So far, NVIDIA is ranked among the top 2 in terms of share price performance among the “Magnificent 7” cohort of mega-cap US stocks, together with Alphabet, the parent company of Google.Since the US-Iran pre-war base date of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 19 May 2026, NVDA recorded a gain of 24%. Also, since the global stock market recovery from 30 March 2025 to 19 May 2026, NVDA surged by 34%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (+26%), and the S&P 500 (+16%) (see Fig. 1 & 2). Fig. 1: NVDA, SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 19 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: NVDA, SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 30 Mar 2026 to 19 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Markets are not looking for “good” results. They are looking for evidence that AI infrastructure demand is still compounding fast enough to justify Nvidia’s valuation and the broader AI/semiconductor stocks rally.According to a news report from Reuters, the options market is pricing a roughly 6–7% post-earnings move, equivalent to an estimated $350 billion swing in the market value of NVDA.Here are the key fundamentals that traders are focusing on.Data centre revenue (the core earnings driver) Consensus for Q1 revenue is set at $78 to $79 billion, with data centre expected revenue coming in at $73 billion.This segment represents the all-important AI buildout, such as hyperscaler spending from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, sovereign AI infrastructure as well as enterprise AI adoption.Blackwell ramp execution (the key narrative) NVIDIA’s current state-of-the-art GPU chip is designed to power large-scale AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing workloads.Focus will be on Blackwell shipment sales, production bottlenecks, customer deployment timelines, and Rubin (next-generation AI and data centre supercomputing platform) roadmap commentary.Guidance (the real catalyst) Three key areas to focus on: Q2 revenue guidance, full-year AI demand commentary, and hyperscaler CAPEX visibility.Markets will be looking for narratives, whether AI spending is still accelerating into 2H, and the state of the customer deployments pipeline (whether it is slowing down)Let’s now turn to the technical analysis of NVDA to assess its medium-term outlook over the next one to three weeks.Relative strength is deteriorating; watch out for a mean reversion decline within NVDA medium-term uptrend Fig. 3: NVIDIA (NVDA) medium-term trend as of 19 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Mean reversion corrective decline within medium-term uptrend phase below 234.90/236.54 key medium-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).Supports: 212.17/208.00 (downside trigger), 195.95 (also the 50-day MA), 179.95 (also the 200-day MA)Next resistances: 234.10, 259.70/260.20 (Fibonacci extensions)Key elements to support the multi-week mean reversion decline on NVDA The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of NVDA against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has flashed out a bearish divergence condition and moved below its 50-day moving average.The recent intraday all-time high of 236.54 printed on 14 May 2026 has coincided closely with the 0.764 Fibonacci extension level of 234.90, projected from the 30 March 2026 low, suggesting that the prior 6-week uptrend has reached a potential terminal level at 234.90, increasing the risk of a mean reversion corrective decline (Elliot Wave Theory & Fibonacci analysis). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets were aggressively pricing in a violent restart of hostilities between the United States and Iran following this morning's firm rejection of the latest Iranian diplomatic proposal. However, the geopolitical landscape just experienced a significant shift: President Trump has officially called off the planned offensives, signalling a pivot toward a more strategic, diplomatic approach.According to the president’s own Truth Social post, Trump was scheduled to meet with his war cabinet tomorrow to discuss the next immediate military strike. Instead, he announced that he is halting the planned attack on Iran at the direct request of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the President of the UAE. The regional leaders urged the US to hold off on military action, citing that serious, high-level negotiations are currently taking place behind the scenes. Trump's Truth Social post – May 18, 2026 This sudden de-escalation is sparking a huge relief rebound across global financial markets. After a notably rough start to the trading week—heavily clouded by the latest Iran proposition rejection and the Warsh Trade/Federal Reserve repricing—investor sentiment is rapidly bouncing back. US stock benchmarks are aggressively catching a bid, reversing earlier intraday losses as the removal of immediate military tail risks allows buyers to confidently step back into the fold – On the other hand, Oil, which quickly rebounded above the $100 mark is now seeing some heavier selling flows. While structural macroeconomic concerns remain, the diplomatic news provides a sweet safety net that Market bulls desperately needed to regain their footing.Let’s dive into a few key charts to see how the latest news affected Markets. Discover: Stock Markets are scared of renewed Oil pressure – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsAsia open: Trump-Xi summit disappoints, inflation fears fuel bond yield surgeThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookStock Markets bounce significantly S&P 500 (CFD) 15M Chart – May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView (15:45) The S&P 500 erased most of its daily losses, retesting the 7,400 level only a few hours after breaking it to the downside.Energy Markets WTI (US) Oil prices exploded to new highs (close to $110, CFD prices) this morning but are now back below the 15M 50-period MA on strong selling momentum WTI (US) Oil CFD 15M Chart, May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels15M 50-period MA 106.47$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance (rejecting)$110 mini-resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support Levels$105 15M 200-period MA$98 to $100 PivotMomentum Support $93 - $95$90 Psychological level and past session's lows$87 to $90 mini-Support$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Metals Markets Metal Futures Intraday Charts, May 18, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Metals are somewhat bouncing higher again from the better Market narratives, with Copper and Silver leading the way to the upside.The reaction is still quite contained for now.US Dollar Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is seeing heavy rejection, failing to hold above its 50-hour MA and instantly tumbling back below 99.00. Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.