Asia Market Wrap - Lunar New Year keeps trading thin Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a one-month low of approximately 2.12%. This decline followed a successful auction of 5-year notes, signaling that anxieties regarding the nation’s fiscal stability are beginning to subside.Market participants are now shifting their focus toward an upcoming 20-year bond sale, which will serve as a critical gauge for long-term investor demand.Meanwhile, Asian stock markets experienced a slight dip of 0.2% during a quiet trading session, as major hubs like China and Hong Kong remained shuttered for the Lunar New Year.Beyond regional holidays, global sentiment is being shaped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing speculation regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following the latest inflation data.Compounding these pressures is a burgeoning "AI panic trade"; shifting attitudes toward artificial intelligence are creating volatility that is now spilling over from the tech sector into the broader global market.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepUK unemployment near 5-year highs During the final quarter of 2025, the UK unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, surpassing the steady 5.1% figure analysts had anticipated. This uptick represents the highest jobless rate seen since early 2021, with the total number of unemployed individuals rising by 94,000 to reach 1.883 million.This growth in joblessness was broad-based, affecting short-term, medium-term, and long-term categories alike.Despite the rise in unemployment, the total number of people in work actually grew by 52,000 to a total of 34.244 million. However, because this growth didn't keep pace with the overall population or labor force changes, the employment rate saw a minor dip of 0.1 percentage points, landing at 75.0%.In the margins of the report, the prevalence of second jobs fell slightly to 1.287 million, while economic inactivity decreased to 20.8%, as 38,000 previously inactive individuals moved back into the labor market.European Session - Steady start to the day European markets maintained a steady position on Tuesday, mirroring a broader sense of global caution as critical diplomatic discussions and shifting tech narratives took center stage.The pan-European STOXX index held firm at 819.22 points in early trading, with the majority of sectors managing to stay in positive territory. Attention was heavily fixed on high-stakes diplomacy, specifically the indirect nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva, alongside US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia regarding territorial disputes.The prospect of easing geopolitical friction had a direct impact on the defense sector, with related stocks sliding 1.2% as investors speculated that a successful diplomatic resolution might dampen the immediate demand for military hardware.Simultaneously, broader market sentiment began to stabilize after a volatile period; the "AI panic" that previously gripped the market showed signs of cooling as fears that artificial intelligence would immediately erode the margins of traditional business models started to subside.Corporate earnings reports provided a mixed bag for individual stocks.On the winning side, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) saw its shares climb 1.1% following a fourth-quarter revenue performance that outpaced market expectations.Conversely, despite reporting a massive 52% surge in annual core profits, mining giant Antofagasta saw its stock price tumble 3.2%, weighed down by a decline in global copper prices.On the FX front, the Japanese yen staged a notable recovery on Tuesday, rebounding by 0.50% to 152.80 against the dollar and climbing 0.52% to 180.97 against the euro. This rally effectively erased Monday's losses, fueled by investor confidence that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policies will continue to provide structural support for the currency.In contrast, the US dollar maintained a slight upward trajectory, with the dollar index reaching 97.12 following a steady two-session gain, while the euro softened slightly to $1.1843.The British pound faced downward pressure, sliding 0.35% to $1.3582 after fresh labor market data revealed that UK unemployment hit a five-year peak in December. This cooling of the labor market and easing wage growth has intensified speculation that the Bank of England may move toward further interest rate cuts.Similarly, the Australian dollar edged lower to $0.7069 as recently released minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia reflected a board divided on the necessity of future rate hikes, despite acknowledging that inflation has remained stubbornly above target for three consecutive years.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Precious metals faced a sharp sell-off on Tuesday, with gold tumbling more than 2% as thin holiday liquidity exacerbated the impact of a strengthening US dollar and cooling geopolitical tensions.Spot gold prices retreated 1.5% to $4,917.90 per ounce, having earlier touched a weekly low of $4,862, while US gold futures for April delivery saw a steeper decline of 2.2% to $4,936.60.This downward trend extended across the sector: spot silver fell 2% to $75.05 per ounce, recovering slightly from an earlier 5% plunge, while platinum and palladium dropped 1.5% and 1.9% respectively.In the energy markets, Brent crude futures drifted lower by 0.86% to $68.06 per barrel as traders weighed the potential for supply disruptions.While Iran conducted naval exercises near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the market remained focused on the upcoming nuclear negotiations with the US scheduled for later in the day.Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was quoted at $63.21, reflecting a 0.51% gain; however, this figure incorporates price action from Monday, as the Presidents Day holiday in the United States prevented a formal settlement in the previous session.Read More:Supreme Court tariff decision and key tests ahead – Markets Weekly OutlookAussie Dollar fatigue? Technical signs hint at an AUD/USD pullbackEUR/USD's Next Move: Hot inflation to 1.1785 or cooling jobs to 1.2000?Economic calendar and final thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data with a host of data being released this morning.Looking at the US session, market attention is expected to focus on today’s release of the weekly ADP payroll data, especially as market participants look for signs of recovery following a lackluster period between January 10th and 24th.At the same time, the Empire Manufacturing index is slated for release, with consensus forecasts suggesting a dip into the low sixes, potentially indicating a slight cooling in regional industrial activity.Given these mixed signals, a clear, unified direction for the U.S. dollar may remain elusive this week. Consequently, currency traders are likely to pivot their attention toward localized developments within the G10 nations, looking for relative value in specific regional trends rather than a broad greenback narrative. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.Having printed fresh highs last week around the 10550 handle the index has seen a notable pullback before finding support at 10387.For now though, bulls remain firmly in control even though a pullback to support around the 10440 mark cannot be ruled out.Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10387 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.Immediate support rests at 10440 before the swing low at 10387 comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10528 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the daily and all-time highs at 10550.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 17, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 16 Today marked a calm open to what is expected to be a pivotal week packed with high-impact economic data.The session was notably quieter than usual, with lower volatility across the board. Chinese markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year — traditionally reducing liquidity in commodities — while US markets remained shut for Presidents Day, observed in honor of George Washington.Despite muted price action in European equities, Japan was a notable performer (and not the best.)The Nikkei 225 saw decent outflows after its historic rally into 2026, closing down 1.50%. The Yen also weakened following a brief 20-minute meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda – Traders interpreted the short encounter as a sign that meaningful fiscal-monetary coordination remains unlikely for now.Only Oil remains under pressure ahead of the talks ongoing in Geneva between Iran top diplomats and the US on the nuclear issue.Don't expect today’s muted to be representative of what lies ahead. The next session brings German and Canadian CPI, UK employment data, Japan’s trade figures, and — most notably — the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision (alongside this evening’s RBA minutes).Kiwi traders will be especially attentive, as the meeting marks the debut of Governor Anna Breman. Her tone and communication style will shape first impressions at the start of her five-year term. Read More:WTI holds above $63 amid second round of US-Iran talks – US Oil outlookAussie Dollar fatigue? Technical signs hint at an AUD/USD pullbackSupreme Court tariff decision and key tests ahead – Markets Weekly OutlookCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView A very dull Monday as can be seen with the very low volatility throughout today's action – But as said in the introduction, don't expect such calm flows ahead!A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 16, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Yen was the only notable performer of the session, to the downside, while other FX currencies remained muted – This will be a key week for forex traders however, so it could be wise to prepare some scenarios!Australian Dollar traders will be on deck tonight with the RBA Minutes at 19:30 ET!A look at Economic data releasing throughout tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The calendar is packed tomorrow, get ready for the action!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil holds a high consolidation range, now remaining above $63WTI keeps an elevated risk-premium despite progress in US-Iran talksExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity US markets are closed today in observance of Presidents Day, keeping volumes and volatility lighter than usual.WTI crude, however, remains firmly on traders’ radar, up 1.40% and strongly holding above $63 at the weekly open.A second round of US-Iran talks is underway in Geneva, with the UN nuclear watchdog meeting overnight with Iran’s top diplomat in search of a potential framework.US conditions remain rigid, particularly as Iran’s current Islamic government faces internal pressure following recent unrest, with reports suggesting more than 30,000 protesters have been killed — and the true toll potentially higher.Washington is pushing for a comprehensive deal, as reiterated by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu following his White House visit, demanding that Iran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle its ballistic missile program.Those headlines briefly pressured oil lower last week, but skepticism persists.US Secretary Marco Rubio added that “it’s been very difficult for anyone to do real deals with Iran,” underscoring the fragile backdrop of negotiations.Before tensions escalated, WTI was trading in the $56–$59 range.Since then, the buildup of military assets in the region and Iran’s history of contentious agreements have kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. zoom_out_map Odds for a US strike in Iran – Source: Polymarket. February 16, 2026 Polymarket-based odds for a strike before February 28 still remain around 30%.Let's dive into a bottom-up multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine where the action currently stands. Read More:Supreme Court tariff decision and key tests ahead – Markets Weekly OutlookAussie Dollar fatigue? Technical signs hint at an AUD/USD pullbackMarkets Today: Europe gains on financials, Gold & Oil Remain Flat, Japan GDP underwhelms as FTSE 100 edges higherUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now holding clear above its 200-Day moving average (currently at $62.81), acting as decisive support in the recent action.Sellers attempted a lower push in the past week of action, but having failed to do so, the MA provides a clear level for technical analysis:Remaining above points to further chances of an upside breakout and implies that the Iran risk-premium holds.Breaking and closing below however would translate to a deal having been reached.Angst remains elevated and odds for a deal are still realistically low, particularly considering that more warships are on the way to the Middle East, so this could simply be attempts to save some time – But Trump is the writer of the Art of the Deal, so naturally a deal is never fully out of the pictureWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView The action rebounded well in this thin-volume Monday but key technical tests are ahead for bulls:The action remains in a triangle formation, indicating directionless behaviors and traders simply profiting by fading the spikes while nothing concrete occurs.The 4H 50-period MA ($63.82) is acting as key resistance on the intraday timeframe.Any clear push above with volume points to a breakout, in the meantime, profit-taking could easily occur here.Any deal could easily lead to regaining the $59 level and could face even further pressure towards early 2026 levels.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$63.83 4H 50-MA and session HighsPast week Spike $66.56Minor Resistance $65 to $66September 2025 Major resistance $67 (could get breached if US attacks)Psychological Resistance $70$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport LevelsRange Key Pivot/Support $62.30 to $63.40 (Iran Premium lows and 200-Day MA)4H 200-period MA $61.11May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Support area $58.50 to $591H Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView On the shorter timeframe, Oil is reaching overbought level and with the 4H 50-period MA acting as immediate resistance, mean-reversion back to the Pivot Zone would not be shocking.One thing to be wary of, is that ahead of a deal officially being reached, going short Oil holds immense risks, with stops which could largely be missed in case of a price jump or any sudden turmoil.Safe Trades and a successful week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Technical signs, including upper wicks and an overbought RSI, point to potential fatigue for AUD/USDThe long-term bullish outlook remains due to policy divergence but does not rule out a short-term correctionSignificant volatility is expected from the upcoming RBA and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as well as high-impact data releases from both Australia and the US.AUD/USD has been on a tear since January 19, rallying some 500 odd pips since. The move has coincided with US dollar weakness and a renewed appetite for emerging markets and commodity linked currencies like the Australian dollar.The current rally appears to have found a top around the 0.7150 handle before ending last week with two bearish days. This has raised the question, is a deeper correction on its way for AUD/USD?Read More: EUR/USD's Next Move: Hot inflation to 1.1785 or cooling jobs to 1.2000?Fundamental outlook - Central Bank policy divergence The longer term fundamental picture still supports further Aussie dollar gains as central bank policy divergence comes into play.The RBA has raised rates at its recent meeting with the potential for more rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve continues to eye rate cuts at some point this year.However, in the short-term a pullback still may materialize and looking at the recent price action, there do appear to be signs to support this narrative.Just looking at implied rates for the Fed and the RBA, and the divergence is evident. According to LSEG data, markets are pricing in around 37 bps of rate hikes for the RBA through December 2026.RBA implied rates for 2026 zoom_out_map Source LSEG Now switching to the Federal Reserve and markets are pricing in around 66 bps of rate cuts after last week's softer than expected CPI print. This leaves the Aussie dollar in pole position for more gains as the year progresses.Federal Reserve implied rates for 2026 zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, the best place to start is the weekly chart.On a weekly timeframe we have seen upper wicks which may be a sign that bullish momentum is fading.If you couple that with the period-14 RSI which is in overbought territory.Are these signs of fatigue?AUD/USD Weekly Chart, February 16, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Dropping down to a four-hour timeframe, and support at 0.70690 is key.A break of this level though still faces significant hurdles with the 50 and 100-day MAs resting just below at 0.7054 and 0.7011 respectively.A break of these levels as well as the 0.7000 handle could open up a deeper retracement toward the 0.6913 and potentially the 200-day MA at 0.6861.This would be considered the safety play for market participants.The more aggressive traders may look at any move higher toward the recent highs as a potential trade opportunity.Stops would need to go just above the recent highs with a bit of breathing room in the event of any spikes, around the 0.7170 handle.Such a move will present a better risk-to-reward opportunity but is also a higher risk trade setup.AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, February 16, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Client sentiment data - AUD/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on AUD/USD with 59% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means AUD/USD could rise in the near-term before a potential selloff.Looking ahead at potential catalysts for AUD/USD This week will bring both the RBA and Federal Reserve meeting minutes which will shed further light on the monetary policy positions moving forward. These events culd stoke significant volatility in AUD/USD.From a data perspective, we will also get the Australian employment change data. The US has a few high impact data releases ahead with PCE, GDP and PMI data all ahead before the end of the week. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Lunar New Year holiday halts Asian equities rally Stock markets in Asia were quiet at the start of the week. This happened because markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, which meant there was very little trading activity.In Japan, the Nikkei rose slightly by 0.2%. This followed a very strong previous week where prices had jumped by 5%.However, some new economic data from Japan was disappointing, which slowed down the market's recent fast growth.Other markets also saw big gains recently.Last week, technology stocks in South Korea went up by 8.2%, and the market in Taiwan grew by nearly 6%. While stock prices generally stayed steady or rose a little on Monday, the prices of precious metals like gold started to drop.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepJapan GDP growth underwhelms, posing challenge for Takaichi At the end of 2025, Japan’s economy grew slightly by 0.1%, which was better than the decline it saw earlier in the year but lower than the 0.4% experts had expected.While businesses started spending more on equipment and projects again, regular citizens did not. People in Japan spent very little extra money because the high cost of living, especially expensive food prices, made them cautious.The government also kept its spending low, and international trade didn't help the economy grow since both exports and imports fell.On the bright side, the negative impact of 15% tariffs from the United States seems to be fading, though Japan is still dealing with difficult political relations with China.Looking ahead, the Japanese government plans to use its recent election win as a reason to start spending more public money to boost the economy.European Session - European shares higher, financials lead the way On Monday, European stock markets rose slightly, led by the STOXX 600 index which increased by 0.3%.Banks and insurance companies performed especially well, helping Spain’s stock market take the lead in the region. Investors are currently waiting for new data on industrial production and several company profit reports coming later this week from major firms like Airbus and Orange.These reports will help people understand how healthy European businesses really are right now.The market has been on a bit of a roller coaster recently. In late January, investors were worried that new Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools might hurt the profits of traditional companies, causing stock prices to swing up and down.However, European companies actually reported better profits than people expected, even with the challenge of high US tariffs. This resilience helped the market hit a record high last week, marking three straight weeks of growth.Later today, a new report is expected to show that industrial production in Europe grew by 1.3% in December. While this is slower than the growth seen the month before, investors are still hopeful.Many believe that government spending and support programs are starting to help the industrial sector recover and grow again.On the FX front, the Japanese yen dropped slightly after a massive 3% surge last week. This small decline happened because new economic data showed that Japan’s economy grew much slower than expected, making it less likely that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates soon.Meanwhile, the US dollar remained steady as investors processed recent reports showing that inflation is cooling down, which supports the idea that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year.Trading was very quiet across the board because major markets in the U.S., China, Taiwan, and South Korea were closed for public holidays. With fewer people trading, the euro and the British pound didn't move much against the dollar.In other currency news, the Australian dollar rose slightly, staying near its highest level in three years due to expectations that Australia might actually raise interest rates soon.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar weakened a bit as investors prepared for a central bank meeting on Wednesday, where experts widely expect interest rates in that country to stay exactly where they are.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs The price of gold dropped in Asian trade because there was less trading than usual, as markets in both the United States and China were closed for holidays.Market participants also decided to sell their gold to lock in profits after prices had jumped by 2.5% during the previous session.By early morning, the price for immediate delivery fell nearly 1% to around $4,997 per ounce, while gold promised for future delivery in April also saw a price decrease.Other precious metals followed a similar downward trend. Silver prices fell by 0.8% after a much larger drop earlier in the day, reversing some of the big gains it made last Friday.Platinum also became slightly cheaper, while palladium prices stayed mostly the same.Meanwhile, markets are keeping a close eye on rising political tensions. US military officials reported they are preparing for a potential weeks-long operation against Iran if the President orders an attack.This situation could lead to a much more serious conflict than in the past, which often causes uncertainty in global markets and leads to a surge in haven demand. With that in mind, such a move could push commodity prices higher if it comes to fruition.Oil prices barely moved on Monday as markets waited to see what would happen with upcoming meetings between the United States and Iran. These talks are meant to lower tensions between the two countries, which could affect how much oil is available globally.At the same time, the market is preparing for OPEC+ to potentially increase the amount of oil they supply to the world starting in April.Because of these conflicting factors, the price of Brent crude stayed nearly flat at about $67.72 per barrel. Similarly, US oil (WTI) was priced at $62.86 per barrel.Trading was very quiet because it was a public holiday in the United States, meaning there was no official closing price for US oil on Monday.Read More:Supreme Court tariff decision and key tests ahead – Markets Weekly OutlookBreaking News: UK GDP underwhelms with 0.1% growth in Q4, FTSE 100 slips & GBP/USD advancesEUR/USD's Next Move: Hot inflation to 1.1785 or cooling jobs to 1.2000?Economic calendar and final thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data with Euro Area industrial production the highlight.Over the past two weeks, the U.S. dollar has struggled to recover its strength, even though the American economy is showing signs of improvement. A major sell-off in mid-January, combined with similar market trends from the summer of 2025, has left investors feeling cautious about the currency.This lack of confidence was clear last week: even though the official jobs report was very strong, the dollar only saw a small, temporary price increase before stalling again.Looking at the week ahead, several economic reports will be released, though they may not be powerful enough to change the market's mind. Investors will check the ADP jobs report on Tuesday, but the biggest focus will be on Friday’s data for December inflation (Core PCE) and overall economic growth (GDP).Since the Federal Reserve pays close attention to the Core PCE as its favorite inflation measure, a predicted increase of 0.3% could make the central bank less likely to cut interest rates soon.While there is a chance the dollar could rise this week if the economic growth numbers are solid and the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes sound firm, I am not fully convinced a major recovery is coming yet. Because today is a US public holiday, trading will likely be quiet with fewer people buying and selling. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.Having printed fresh highs last week around the 10550 handle the index has seen a notable pullback before finding support at 10387.For now though, bulls remain firmly in control even though a pullback to support around the 10440 mark cannot be ruled out.Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10387 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.Immediate support rests at 10440 before the swing low at 10387 comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10528 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the daily and all-time highs at 10550.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 16, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received a reassuring report after a largely expected CPI release. Inflation has been in the Fed's sights for a while now, being the only data preventing cuts amid not-so-shocking Non-Farm Payrolls growth and easing Retail Sales, and it just cooled to the lowest print in close to 5 years. The y/y print is at 2.4% (+0.2% vs 0.3$ exp). zoom_out_map Headline CPI in the past 10 Years – Source: Trading Economics Read More:Breaking News: US CPI at 0.2% – 2.4% Y/Y (vs 0.3% exp) – a miss!US inflation slows, Fed may cut rates more than the market prices in Some parts of the data, essential to the Fed, remain hot (like the SuperCore), but overall this is evident progress – with the pricing of a third cut in 2026 now well in pace, all eyes will turn to the FOMC's communication from now on.Metals, Bonds, and Cryptocurrencies are all dancing higher after the report. Treasuries are, by the way, the asset class driving the most inflows throughout the past week, with the upward move now grabbing quite some momentum. zoom_out_map US 10 Year Treasury Bond (CFD) – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The black sheep of this morning's action are the Stock Markets, going through some nasty dynamics with AI creative destruction dragging sentiment in equities yet again today. After a rough open, traders attempted a rebound but Indexes aren't out of the waters yet. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 2H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Participants are reconsidering the idea that rate cuts won't be enough to save waves of structural reworkings in the global economy, where many sectors of the economy will have to make space for the revolutionary tool.Tech, real estate, freight, entertainment, diagnostics, and more have been getting battered in the last month of action. Yes, this offers some opportunities, but the issue lies in market pricing. We live in a very high P/E environment, the highest we have seen since the late 1990s. zoom_out_map Case Shiller P/E Ratios since 1980s– Source: Multpl.com As this excellent piece argues, if this changes, Markets are doomed to quite aggressive repricing if a regime change forces a lower Price/Earnings ratio.Note: As I am publishing this piece, Stocks are taking on a significant bounce, led by Tech and Semiconductor with Nasdaq leading. Mid-session update coming up soon.Gold breaks back above $5,000, Silver rebounds zoom_out_map Gold 2H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has been holding quite a resilient range between $4,900 and $5,100. Keep a close eye on these two boundaries as breaching them will dictate the upcoming sentiment for Metals. Silver is back above $77, its key resistance is $84 but it is struggling to get back there. zoom_out_map Silver 30M Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cryptos are pushing higher zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos (10:40 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Solana is leading the action in Digital Assets – It remains at its 2022 Support.Keep a close eye on Bitcoin as it nears $70,000: Closing back above the key level should bring some further buying flows throughout next week.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US headline inflation rose by 0.2 per cent month on month and 2.4 per cent year on year, slightly below expectationsCore inflation stood at 0.3 per cent month on month and 2.5 per cent year on year, confirming gradual disinflationRent growth slowed to 0.2 per cent, while tariff effects remained limitedMarkets reacted moderately, with lower US yields and Fed Funds futures pricing in nearly two and a half cutsJanuary data without a negative surprise January’s inflation report in the United States delivered a moderately positive signal for financial markets. Consumer prices rose by 0.2 per cent month on month and by 2.4 per cent year on year, slightly below market consensus. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, increased by 0.3 per cent month on month and 2.5 per cent year on year, in line with analysts’ expectations.Importantly, the pattern seen in previous years, when January readings repeatedly surprised to the upside, did not reappear. At the beginning of the year, firms often revise their price lists, which in periods of strong cost pressure had previously led to marked increases in inflation indicators. This time, the effect was limited, suggesting that price pressures are gradually easing. zoom_out_map Contributions to US CPI Y/Y% NSA, source: Bloomberg Limited impact of tariffs and slowing rent pressures The impact of tariffs on overall price levels remains moderate. In selected categories, such as audio and video equipment, above average price increases are visible. However, overall goods prices excluding energy and food were unchanged compared with the previous month, as was already the case in December.Stronger increases were recorded in the services sector, where prices rose by 0.4 per cent month on month. This was partly due to significant volatility in air fares, which climbed by 6.5 per cent. More importantly, rent inflation slowed markedly to 0.2 per cent, as housing costs had been a key factor sustaining elevated core inflation in previous quarters.The trend in core inflation continues to point towards a gradual moderation in price dynamics. The disinflationary process is progressing slowly, but the overall direction remains consistent with policymakers’ expectations.The Fed can afford to wait for further data For the Federal Reserve, the current report is relatively comfortable. On the one hand, the feared surge in prices at the start of the year did not materialise, confirming that the impact of tariff increases remains limited. On the other hand, inflation has not fallen sharply enough to justify an immediate easing of monetary policy.In this context, the central bank can keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months and wait for additional data. Rate cuts at the next two meetings therefore appear unlikely, as policymakers will want to ensure that the downward trend is durable and broadly embedded across the economy.Three or four rate cuts by year end In the medium term, however, the prospect of monetary easing remains realistic. If inflation continues to moderate gradually, supporters of the view that tariffs have only a temporary impact on prices will gain further credibility.The baseline scenario assumes that the rate cutting cycle begins in June, with a total of four interest rate cuts by the end of the year. This would represent a more decisive easing than is currently priced in by financial markets. In such a scenario, the Fed would gradually shift from a neutral stance to a more dovish one, supporting economic activity while continuing to monitor the pace of disinflation and longer term price stability.Market reaction The release triggered a moderate but noticeable reaction in financial markets. EURUSD rose from around 1.1860 to 1.1880, signalling a slight weakening of the US dollar. Gold climbed from approximately 4960 USD to 5000 USD per ounce, reflecting increased sensitivity to the prospect of looser monetary policy in the months ahead. Futures on the SP 500 edged higher, indicating a mildly positive reception from equity investors.A more pronounced move was visible in the bond market. Yields on US Treasury securities declined noticeably, with the ten year yield falling below 4.07 per cent, compared with around 4.12 per cent earlier in the day. The drop in yields suggests that investors have begun to price in a greater likelihood of interest rate cuts later this year.The futures market reaction was relatively measured. Fed Funds futures currently price in close to two and a half rate cuts for the remainder of the year. zoom_out_map 10-year US government bonds, source: Bloomberg Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures have just been released, and they show a cooling trend that slightly outpaced analyst projections. The headline year-over-year rate arrived at 2.4%, coming in just below the anticipated 2.5% consensus.This report should bring some relief to Markets which have been struggling throughout this week to find much momentum. but expect reactions to stall as participants digest the data.Immediate reactions are seen in a quasi-everything rally, spanning from Metals to bonds and including also Crypto, Oil and Stock futures. Only the US Dollar is heading lower. The Market open should be broadly green. Fed cut odds for March are at 10%, these odds should shift higher throughout the session.Bureau of Labor Statistics statement: "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter continued to rise in January, while the energy index fell, offsetting increases in other categories."Get access to the full report right here.An in-depth reactions piece is coming up very soon, stay logged in! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EUR/USD is in a tight consolidation phase ahead of critical US macroeconomic data, marking its fourth consecutive day of subdued movement.The primary market focus is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with consensus forecasting a slight slowdown in January's headline and core inflation.The pair's direction depends on US data: hot CPI could push EUR/USD toward 1.1785, while signs of a cooling US labor market could see it retest 1.2000.Most Read: Get ready for CPI – US Inflation PreviewEUR/USD entered a phase of tight consolidation this morning as traders adopted a "wait-and-see" posture ahead of critical macroeconomic data.After hitting weekly highs near 1.1928, the pair drifted lower to trade around the 1.1850–1.1870 region, marking its fourth consecutive day of subdued movement.A barrage of European data releases failed to inspire a breakout this morning. According to EuroStat, the number of employed persons in the Euro Area rose by 0.2% from the previous quarter to 176.13 million in the final quarter of 2025, ahead of the market expectations of a 0.1% increase, according to a preliminary estimate.It was the bloc's 19th consecutive period of employment growth, extending the slow but consistent trend of increasing jobs in the European labor market, despite concerns that a stronger euro would reduce orders for major employers.Despite this, EUR/USD continued to coil this morning. Will the US CPI data be enough to bring EUR/USD out of its funk and stoke some volatility?US dollar and CPI data to Play a Role? One of the main reasons for Friday’s stagnation is the looming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Investors are bracing for January inflation figures, which were delayed due to a brief partial US government shutdown earlier in the month. Consensus forecasts suggest:Headline Inflation: A slowdown to 2.5% YoY (from 2.7%).Core Inflation: A slight ease to 2.5% YoY (from 2.6%).Beyond inflation, market sentiment was soured by renewed concerns over Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent comments from industry leaders regarding AI’s potential to disrupt white-collar jobs within the next 18 months triggered a risk-off mood on Wall Street. This benefited the safe-haven US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the Euro.US CPI YoY zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Looking Forward: What Will Move the Needle? The path for EUR/USD will be dictated by two main factors:Inflation Realities: If the U.S. CPI comes in "hotter" than expected, it will reinforce the Fed’s hawkish pause, likely pushing the pair toward the 1.1785 support level as rate-cut expectations for June are pushed back.Once the inflation print is out of the way, markets will continue to focus on the US labour market.Labor Market Strength: While January’s Nonfarm Payrolls were strong, rising jobless claims (reaching 227K this week) suggest underlying cracks. Any further signs of a cooling U.S. labor market could weaken the Dollar and allow the Euro to retest the 1.2000 psychological barrier.Technical Analysis on EUR/USD From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is on a four-day losing streak after peaking just above the 1.1900 handle.As long as bulls keep EUR/USD above the swing low at 1.1769, the momentum remains in favor of the bulls.The period-14 RSI also remains above the 50 handle which hints at bullish momentum.A break below this level may still struggle to gain traction as a host of key support areas rest below.First will be the 1.1700 region with the 100-day MA resting just below at 1.1682. This region could prove a tough nut to crack especially given the narrative around the US dollar.However, if risk sentiment remains fragile and we get a hot CPI print, then we could see a break of this key support zone and test the trendline.EUR/USD Daily Chart, February 13, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Safe Trades.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian equity markets extend impressive start to 2026 The Nikkei 225 and KOSPI hit record highs, anchoring the fifth consecutive day of gains in Asian marketsEuropean equities also climbed to new heights, fueled by upbeat corporate earnings and significant M&A activityThe Japanese Yen surged for its biggest weekly gain in over a yearGold prices slipped on strong US labor data, while oil saw modest gainsAsian markets continued their upward trajectory for a fifth consecutive session, outpacing US performance this year as market participants were drawn to the region's attractive valuations and robust growth outlook.Equity benchmarks across the continent reached historic milestones on Thursday. South Korean shares hit an all-time high fueled by the global surge in AI-driven chip demand, while Singaporean stocks surpassed the 5,000-point mark as capital flowed into diversified sectors beyond technology. Consequently, the MSCI index of emerging Asian equities climbed roughly 0.7% to a new peak, anchored by a 3% record-breaking surge in the KOSPI.The semiconductor industry acted as a primary engine for these gains. Major players Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw their share prices jump by 6.4% and 3.3%, respectively, propelling the South Korean benchmark upward for the fourth day in a row.In Japan, the financial landscape saw a rare synchronized rally of stocks, government bonds, and the yen as investors reacted to Sanae Takaichi’s historic election as Prime Minister. The Nikkei 225 broke the 58,000 threshold for the first time, hitting an intraday record of 58,015.08 before cooling off to close slightly lower at 57,639.84. Despite the late-day dip, the index has gained nearly 15% so far in 2026, while the broader Topix index rose 0.7% to settle at 3,882.16.Corporate performance within Japan remained a mixed bag. Shiseido experienced its largest stock surge since 2008 climbing 15.8% on the news of a projected return to profitability.Conversely, Honda Motor saw its shares drop 3.5% following a weak earnings report. Market attention is now shifting toward SoftBank Group, which is expected to release results that clarify the financing strategy for its ambitious AI investment portfolio.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepEuropean Session - European shares advance on earnings European equity markets climbed to unprecedented heights on Thursday, spearheaded by a rally in French benchmarks as a string of upbeat corporate earnings reports bolstered confidence.The pan-European STOXX 600 edged up 0.7% to reach 625.86 points, while the CAC 40 outpaced its peers with a gain of more than 1.4%.Specific corporate success stories drove much of the morning's momentum. Shares of Legrand rose 3.3% following the company's announcement that the booming data center market is fueling its expansion, allowing for an upward revision of its medium-term profitability goals. Similarly, luxury powerhouse Hermes saw its stock climb 2.3% after reporting consistent revenue growth, underpinned by robust consumer demand in both Japan and the United States.Broader market sentiment was further supported by a sense of international relief. Investors reacted positively to recent US labor data, which indicated a resilient job market, effectively overshadowing recent anxieties regarding AI-driven market volatility. This shift in focus allowed equities to regain their footing after several sessions of uncertainty.Merger and acquisition activity provided an additional jolt to the financial sector. Shares of British money manager Schroders skyrocketed 30% after US-based Nuveen announced an agreement to acquire the firm for £9.9 billion ($13.5 billion). The deal, which creates a combined entity managing nearly $2.5 trillion in assets, pushed the broader financial services sector up by 1.4%, making it the day's top-performing industry group.On the FX front, the Japanese yen surged on Thursday, positioning itself for its most significant weekly gain in over a year. This resurgence has placed notable pressure on the US dollar, signaling a potential sentiment shift in global currency markets.The yen climbed approximately 2.8% against the greenback and over 2% against the euro this week. While the dollar index edged slightly lower.In other regions, the Australian dollar reached a three-year peak of $0.7146. This rally follows a series of interest rate hikes by the central bank, which has signaled that more tightening may be necessary to curb persistent inflation.Meanwhile, China's yuan continued its steady appreciation, bolstered by seasonal demand for cash ahead of the Lunar New Year. The currency crossed the significant 6.90 per dollar threshold on Thursday, marking its strongest level in 33 months.The euro and British pound both saw modest gains of about 0.11% against the dollar. For the pound, this resilience came despite new economic data revealing that the UK economy experienced almost no growth during the final quarter of 2025.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as stronger-than-expected US labor data for January dampened anticipation for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $5,064.29 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery eased 0.2% to $5,086.50. Silver also faced a pullback, dropping 0.7% to $83.47 per ounce following a substantial 4% rally the previous day.In the energy sector, oil prices rose slightly as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran stoked fears of potential supply disruptions in Tehran or key shipping lanes.Brent crude futures increased by 0.5% to reach $69.75 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.57% to $65. These gains followed a strong Wednesday session where both benchmarks rose by approximately 1% despite a reported increase in US crude stockpiles.However, the upside for oil was tempered by several fundamental factors.The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2026 global demand growth forecast downward, noting that higher prices are beginning to weigh on consumption. Additionally, domestic supply data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a massive 8.5 million-barrel surge in US crude inventories climbing to 428.8 million barrels which vastly exceeded analyst expectations.This inventory build, coupled with a decline in US refinery utilization rates to 89.4%, served as a significant cap on further price increases.Read More:Breaking News: UK GDP underwhelms with 0.1% growth in Q4, FTSE 100 slips & GBP/USD advancesDow hits new record: Can the S&P 500 breakout pass 7000 and gain acceptance?Is the US Labor Market really holding well? – North American Mid-Week Market updateEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data.The US session looks set to be an interesting one after the jobs data release yesterday. The dollar’s inability to sustain a rebound following strong jobs data suggests an underlying bearish sentiment. Despite short-term interest rates remaining elevated, markets quickly sold off the initial gains, indicating a preference for selling into rallies based on long-term outlooks.Consequently, the threshold for a meaningful recovery is high; today's jobless claims likely won't suffice to turn the tide. For the dollar to find sustainable support, significant upward surprises in tomorrow’s inflation data are required.In the meantime, the Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to stabilize near the 97.0 level. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.Having printed fresh highs early this morning around the 10550 handle the index has seen a notable pullback of some 50 points.For now though, bulls remain firmly in control even though a pullback to support around the 10400 mark cannot be ruled out.Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10387 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.Immediate support rests at 10460 before the swing low at 10387 comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10528 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the daily and all-time highs at 10550. .FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rebound losing momentum: Gold staged a sharp 15.7% bounce from the $4,405 low but is now showing signs of bullish exhaustion below the key $5,170 resistance, with price action stalling above the 20-day moving average at $4,940.Supportive macro correlations fading: The usual inverse relationship with the US dollar has weakened, and the Shanghai gold premium has flipped from a strong premium to a discount, signalling softer physical demand and reduced upside momentum.Technical risks tilted lower near term: Bearish RSI divergence and momentum breakdown increase the risk of a pullback toward $4,795–$4,703, or even a retest of the $4,500/$4,405 zone, unless price clears decisively above $5,170. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold extends plunge by 9%, approaching $4,405 inflection level for potential minor bounce,” published on 2 February 2026The price action of the precious yellow metal has shaped the expected minor bounce, with Gold (XAU/USD) rebounding by 15.7% from the $4.405 key short-term support printed on 2 February 2026, reaching an intraday high of $5.092 on 4 February 2026.Thereafter, it traded sideways above its 20-day moving average, which now serves as key near-term support at US$4,940.Gold-US dollar indirect correlation has broken down (for now) zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend with US Dollar Index & Shanghai Gold futures premium as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) In contrast, the US Dollar Index has staged a decline of 1.3% from its 4 February 2026 high to 11 February 2026 low, and the recent spate of US dollar weakness does not translate into a positive feedback loop for Gold (XAUUSD), where the prior strong rally seen Gold (XAU/USD) from 16 January 2026 to 29 January 2026 had been accompanied by a drop in the US Dollar Index (having a significant indirect correlation) over the same period (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the recent lackluster movement of Gold (XAU/USD) from 4 February 2026 to 12 February 2026 has been in sync with a dwindling of the premium seen in the Shanghai gold futures over the US COMEX gold futures, where the premium has been reduced to a discount of around -$14 at this time of writing from +$72.28 printed on 4 February 2026.A widening of the Shanghai gold premium suggests more physical demand that tends to spill over to a bullish run in Gold (XAU/USD), as seen in the recent ramp-up in its price actions in late January 2026 (see Fig. 1).Let's now look at the short-term technical chart of Gold (XAU) to decipher the near-term (1 to 3 days) trajectoryShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Bullish exhaustion below $5,170 zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $5,170 key short-term pivotal resistance in Gold (XAU/USD), and a break below $4,940 (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a drop back towards $4,795/4,703 and the recent $4,500/4,405 minor key swing low area of 2 February 2026.However, a clearance above $5,170 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at $5,448 (30 Jan 2026 minor swing high) and a possible retest on its current all-time high of $5,602 printed on 29 January 2026.Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias Hourly RSI momentum has flashed out an early bearish divergence condition at its overbought region from 4 February 2026 to 11 February 2026.Thereafter, the hourly RSI momentum indicator staged a bearish breakdown below a key former ascending support on Thursday, 12 February 2026, at this time of writing. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY is experiencing significant pressure, trading below the 100-day MA near 152.800.The Yen's unexpected rally is due to political clarity/responsible fiscal policy post-election and speculative short-covering.A brief positive reaction in the US dollar following the jobs report is being tested, with pressure on the Fed to act on high rates.Attention turns to initial jobless claims and the US CPI release on FridayRead More: Breaking News: Non-Farm Payrolls at 130K (vs 70K exp) – A strong beatUSD/JPY is experiencing significant downward pressure with prices pushing down to a daily low at 152.800. The pair is now trading below the 100-day MA but is more downside still a possibility?Reasons for the move Post-Election Yen strengthThe Yen has defied expectations of weakness following Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide election victory.Fiscal Clarity: Instead of the feared "fiscal dove" sell-off, the market responded positively to the political clarity and Takaichi’s "responsible fiscal policy" (noting she would not use debt to fund tax cuts).Short Covering: Speculators who were "short" on the Yen (betting against it) are aggressively unwinding their positions, creating a "squeeze" that has pushed the Yen higher against both the USD and EUR.Performance of the US dollarThe US Dollars recent performance has aided the Yen's rise but a brief bout of US dollar positivity came about after the US jobs report today.The question now is whether the US dollar can build on this momentum or is it just another short-term knee-jerk reaction? The immediate reaction saw rate cut expectations for the US pushed back to July but with President Donald Trump just yesterday taking aim at high rates once more, there is pressure on incoming Fed Chair Warsh to act.If the Dollar index extends its recovery, USD/JPY may rise once more and could break back above the 100-day MA.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, February 11, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Economic data and potential catalysts ahead The major data release left for this week will come from the US this week.Later today we have some Fed speakers on deck before attention turns toward tomorrow's release of initial jobless claims.The week will come to an end with the US CPI release on Friday which could solidify the recent changes to rate cut expectations. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Technical Analysis - USD/JPY From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is currently trading below the 100-day MA.There is concern that USD bulls may be returning and this could hamper the Yens current rally.The period-14 RSI though remains below the 50 neutral level which hints at bearish momentum remaining in play.Short-term traders may be looking for rallies toward 154.00 to sell, targeting a move toward the 152.00–152.10 support zone.USD/JPY Daily Chart, February 11, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Support153.40152.21151.53Resistance154.48 (100-day MA)155.00156.27 (50-day MA)Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets see strong movements after the Non-Farm payrolls beat (130K vs 70K exp)US Dollar led reactions to the upside but traders are casting doubts on the reportExploring reactions across Markets to monitor what is moving the most Traders received a very positive Non-Farm Payrolls report, which almost doubled its expectations at +130K vs 70K estimates, taking the Unemployment Rate down to 4.3% (from 4.4%).Immediate reactions were of high-paced rallies in the Dollar which quickly got back on top of the FX action, supported by higher yields (less odds for cuts in 2026, particularly the June Meeting).Read More: Breaking News: Non-Farm Payrolls at 130K (vs 70K exp) – A strong beatFlows did however turn slightly since, with the -856K revisions to the 2025 data removing quite a large chunk of jobs created from the picture.With recent BLS restructuring, Participants have been casting doubts on the accuracy of the headline number itself, hence tend to look more into less misleading numbers such as the UE rate, which will be the focus going forward.With Hourly earnings rising to 0.4% on the month, it will be tough to justify cuts for the new Fed Chair if the data remains resilient – However, some arguments point toward seasonality for new year job hirings and pay raises, so this puts even more emphasis on next month's release.Let's dive into some Market Reactions to see where morning flows are heading. Read More:Dow hits new record: Can the S&P 500 breakout pass 7000 and gain acceptance?Markets Today: Markets digest Chinese inflation, AI fears continue, Gold holds high ground as NFP loomsChart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepUS Dollar rallies but leaves space for lags the Aussie Dollar (AUD) zoom_out_map US Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 11, 2026 The Dollar was racing to attempt a break back above 97.00 but is stalling at the Pivotal resistance level, having rejected its 200-period Moving Average.It is currently getting slowed down by some larger moves in the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen, both grabbing the attention during the last few periods. The Greenback is still higher on the session against European Currencies and the CAD.Keep a close eye on the daily highs (97.30).Stocks jumped higher but getting sold off zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30M Chart – Source: TradingView. February 11, 2026 The Dow Jones opened shooting higher from the positive report but Wall Street seems to reassess their bullish views – Strong selling flows are currently occurring.Removing Fed Cuts will not be a positive for Stocks at this stage.Taking a step back, they remain strong as long as the Dow holds above 50,000.US Stocks update coming up at the mid-session.Metals rallied overnight but are facing a test ahead zoom_out_map Gold 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 11, 2026 Precious metals were enjoying quite an easy session, with all of the rallying, with Platinum and Silver both up around 5% and Gold attempting to breach $5,100.However, bears are defending the (very important) level as the data remains hawkish and won't help Gold and precious metals rallying further.Silver is also rejecting $84, a key level and which can warrant downside on the session.Any surprise breach of resistance implies of risk-off positioning (regarding Iran).Bitcoin is still struggling, rejecting $70,000 zoom_out_map Bitcoin 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 11, 2026 Bitcoin and altcoins are still getting rejected, definitely not trendy in the past couple of weeks. With risk-assets seeing rejection since 10:00 A.M. , it will be difficult to justify their rise.Explore our latest in detail piece for Altcoins right here.US 10Y Yield rises but also stalls Bonds are getting rejected (Yields going higher) as traders get ready for a longer pause from the Fed (barring any surprise event or misses). zoom_out_map US 10Y Yield Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 11, 2026 The Employment picture is sending some confusing signs, with NFP largely contradicting last week's private reports – Hawkish reactions could weigh on risk-assets for the time coming, but it will also depend largely on this Friday's CPI report.Safe Trades and keep an eye headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the report for the much-anticipated Non-Farm Payroll, which came at a strong beat vs expectations– The month-over-month release came at 130K vs 70k estimates.Odds for a cut in the March meeting were at 20% and are currently staying put, slowly reducing. The issue for the Trump Administration however is that odds for cuts later are falling: the June meeting was priced close to 100% and is now closer to 75%.This will surely leave some anxiety in Markets with traders still awaiting for Friday's CPI report before taking decisive positioning – For now, this leaves a Hawkish tilt.Equity futures are staying unchanged (for now), the US Dollar is rising, while Metals and Treasuries are dipping lower.Bureau of Labor Statistics statement: "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs."Get access to the full report right here.An in-depth reactions piece is coming up very soon, stay logged in! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Markets take a breath, Yen extends gains Driven by gains in South Korea and Taiwan, emerging Asian equities climbed on Wednesday, while Thai markets continued to trend upward following an election that promised political stability and new economic initiatives.The MSCI index for the region reached a record peak after rising nearly 1%, bolstered by a 1.2% increase in the KOSPI and a 1.8% jump in Taiwan’s primary index.Because these two technology-centric markets represent roughly 40% of the MSCI index, their performance was pivotal; specifically, a 2.4% surge in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company propelled Taipei’s benchmark to an all-time high.Meanwhile, South Korean shares maintained their momentum for a third straight day, supported largely by strong performances from major automakers Hyundai and Kia.In Japan, the Nikkei is up around 2.2% on the day, extending its impressive performance this week.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepChina inflation rate comes in below expectations In January China’s annual inflation rate dropped significantly to 0.2%, down from 0.8% the previous month. This figure represented the lowest level since October and fell short of the 0.4% forecasted by analysts.A primary driver of this slowdown was the first decline in food prices in three months, with costs for pork, eggs, and cooking oils pulling the category down to a 0.7% contraction. While clothing prices saw a slight uptick, non-food inflation overall cooled to 0.4%, even as government-backed consumer trade-in programs remained active.Additional sector data revealed a mixed economic landscape, as healthcare inflation eased and education costs remained stagnant. Notably, housing and transport experienced sharper price drops than in December, with transport costs falling 3.4%.National Bureau of Statistics official Dong Lijuan attributed this cooling to a high comparative base from the prior year and a steep decline in energy prices. Furthermore, core inflation which strips out volatile food and energy costs hit a six-month low at 0.8%, while the month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% also trailed market expectations.European Session - Tech stocks drag European shares lower European markets trended lower on Wednesday as a disappointing earnings report from Dassault Systèmes fueled anxieties about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional business models.The STOXX 600 index dipped 0.2%, with France’s CAC 40 bearing the brunt of the losses. Dassault's stock plunged nearly 20% after the software manufacturer reported quarterly revenue growth of just 1%, missing investor expectations and highlighting vulnerabilities in the software sector. This selloff extended to the broader technology and insurance sectors, the latter of which was rattled by a Barclays downgrade following the release of a new ChatGPT-integrated insurance tool.Despite the general downturn, certain companies managed to buck the trend through strategic gains or strong financial performance. Hardware providers like Siemens Energy saw shares climb 5.2% after reporting that net profits nearly tripled, driven by the massive infrastructure demands of the AI boom.Additionally, the London Stock Exchange Group rose 2.7% amid reports that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has acquired a notable stake in the firm.Meanwhile, beverage giant Heineken saw a 4.4% increase in its share price after announcing plans to reduce its global workforce by 6,000 positions to streamline operations.On the FX front, the Japanese yen climbed sharply on Wednesday as market participants reacted to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive election win, which is expected to grant her significant control over the country's upcoming fiscal policies.This yen strength, combined with disappointing US economic data released on Tuesday, pressured the dollar ahead of the crucial non-farm payrolls report.As a result, the dollar index fell 0.33% to 96.60, while the Australian dollar managed to break past the $0.71 mark for the first time in three years.In Asian trading, the yen rose nearly 1% against the greenback to reach 152.94, extending a rally that began the previous day.This momentum also saw the Japanese currency gain ground against other major peers; the euro dropped 0.7% to 182.27 yen following a sharp decline on Tuesday, and the British pound slid 0.73% to 209.04 yen, continuing its recent downward trend.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Precious metals gained momentum as both the US dollar and Treasury bond yields retreated following reports that December retail sales had flatlined.This lack of growth in consumer spending suggests a cooling economy, which increased the appeal of gold and silver ahead of highly anticipated employment data. Because lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, market participants shifted back into bullion to hedge against potential economic softening.Spot gold rose 0.7% to reach $5,056.82 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery climbed 1% to $5,080.90.Silver experienced an even more robust recovery, jumping 2.2% to $82.44 per ounce after enduring a significant sell-off of more than 3% during the previous session.While metals had recently decoupled from traditional interest rate signals, the current dip in yields provided a necessary pillar of support as traders await further cues from the January jobs report.Read More:NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesNFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/ozDow hits new record: Can the S&P 500 breakout pass 7000 and gain acceptance?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data with an OPEC monthly report the highlight.The US session is shaping up to be a busy one, with the NFP release dominating the agenda.While the dollar's recent downturn wasn't solely triggered by weak US economic data, this week’s reports have certainly intensified the bearish sentiment surrounding the currency.December’s retail sales stalled, failing to meet the expected 0.4% growth and leading to a decline in real sales volumes.Furthermore, the control group a key indicator for GDP dipped by 0.1% following a downward revision for November, signaling a broad cooling in consumer spending that likely necessitates lower growth forecasts for the turn of the year.A significantly weak payroll print could prompt markets to anticipate a potential interest rate cut as early as April, possibly pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) down toward the 96.0 level.While my forecast of 75k new jobs is more optimistic than the 70k consensus and the even lower "whisper" numbers circulating after recent White House commentary, we anticipate the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.4%.If a more positive employment outlook comes to fruition, some of the dollar's recent macro-driven losses may reverse; however, I believe any such recovery would be temporary, as the conditions for a sustained dollar rally do not yet appear to be in place. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.However, bulls have failed to push on this week with the 10430 handle proving a tough nut to crack.Market participants may be waiting on more clarity from US data and the Federal Reserve's path moving forward before committing. Another factor could be the excellent performance of emerging markets this week which may be drawing flows away from the FTSE and other indexes.Immediate support rests at 10352 before the 100-day MA at 10258 comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10430 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the coveted 10500 handle.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 11, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved a third consecutive record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed in the redMarket anxiety increased due to flat US retail sales data and massive projected capital expenditures for AI infrastructureThe S&P 500 shows signs of a potential breakout above 7000Caution is advised in the near term, with the Fear and Greed Index in "extreme greed" territory and significant volatility expected from upcoming US jobs and CPI dataMost Read: The Oil Tug-of-War: Geopolitics vs. Global glut continues. Will bulls or bears prevail?Market performance was mixed on Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average secured its third consecutive record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the session in the red.Market participants were primarily focused on flat retail sales data and the anticipation of an upcoming labor market report.The communication services sector suffered the most significant decline, largely due to a 1.8% drop in Alphabet shares following the company’s $20 billion bond sale. This move intensified broader market anxieties regarding the massive capital expenditures required for AI infrastructure, with industry giants like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft projected to spend hundreds of billions of dollars collectively throughout 2026.S&P 500 Heatmap zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Economic indicators added to the cautious sentiment, as US retail sales remained stagnant in December, missing the 0.4% growth forecasted by economists. This lack of growth, driven by reduced spending on big-ticket items like vehicles, suggests a cooling economy as the new year begins. Despite the sluggish data, expectations for a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve increased, with the probability of an April rate cut rising to 36.9% from Monday's 32.2%.Nevertheless, the consensus remains that rates will hold steady until June, coinciding with the potential leadership transition to Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, pending Senate approval.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 50609, an intraday record high earlier in the day before a pullback to close the session around the 50348 handle..Is the S&P 500 poised for a breakout beyond 7000? The S&P 500 has all but recovered from the selloff which began on February 3 and culminated in a low print of 6735 on February 5.There are signs from both a technical and fundamental perspective which hint at a potential upside breakout.First we have the technical picture where we have a golden cross pattern which hints at further upside.The period-14 RSI remains above the 50 handle, hinting at the bullish momentum still in play.Price does need to hold above the swing low at 6905 to keep the bullish structure intact. A four-hour candle close below this level could open up a deeper correction.SP 500 Four-Hour Chart, February 10, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Looking at other factors that hint at more upside and Goldman Sachs' US Equity Sentiment Indicator is stuck at 0.0, a neutral reading that in the past has tended to precede gains in the S&P 500 over the following month. zoom_out_map Source: Isabelnet If history is to repeat itself, the S&P 500 could be setting up for another rally with hopes of consolidation above the 7000 handle.In the near-term though there could be a temporary pause. The fear and greed index is currently in extreme greed territory, around the 75.86 mark. The bulls appear to be holding their ground as it looks like the rally still has its fans. zoom_out_map Source: Isabelnet Up next we have US data which could have significant implications for US equity markets. The jobs data and CPI print could both influence rate cut expectations and thus drive significant volatility.For more on the Jobs report due tomorrow, please read NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices are in a "tug-of-war" between short-term geopolitical risk (US-Iran tensions) and a long-term global supply surplus.A bullish spike for WTI is possible if tensions escalate, potentially breaking above $65.A massive 4 mb/d supply glut forecasted for 2026 acts as a ceiling, with a bearish correction below $62.40 exposing $55.00.Most Read: NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesThe crude oil market is characterized by a delicate balancing act between escalating geopolitical risk premiums and a looming global supply surplus at present.Prices for both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude have remained steady near six-month highs, even as the market faces conflicting signals from diplomatic channels and maritime warnings.The global benchmarks are trading in a tight, consolidated range as investors weigh the potential for supply disruptions against a bearish long-term fundamental outlookWhat is moving oil prices at the moment? The market's current "coiling" behavior where prices trade in a narrowing range and is being driven by three primary factors:The US-Iran Geopolitical Risk Premium The most immediate driver is the "tug-of-war" between Washington and Tehran. While indirect nuclear talks in Oman have been described as a "good start," significant friction remains.The US Department of Transportation recently issued a maritime advisory for American-flagged vessels to stay clear of Iranian territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz. Because nearly 20% of global oil consumption passes through this strait, any threat of interception or military escalation keeps a "fear premium" embedded in the price.The "India-Russia" Factor and Sanctions Markets are closely monitoring a potential shift in global trade flows. Recent US-India trade discussions have reportedly been linked to New Delhi freezing or reducing its imports of Russian crude. As India is a top buyer of Russian oil, any significant disruption to this flow would force a massive reshuffling of global supply, likely tightening the market and pushing prices higher in the short term.Long-term Supply Surplus vs. Short-term Tensions Acting as a ceiling on prices is the fundamental reality of 2026: a massive supply glut. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the EIA have forecast that global production driven by OPEC+ output hikes and record production from the US, Canada, and Brazil is outstripping demand. The IEA estimates a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, which is preventing geopolitical spikes from turning into a sustained bull run.Forward Outlook - bulls or bears to prevail? Market analysts suggest that crude is at a technical crossroads. Here is the outlook for the coming weeks:The Bullish Breakout Scenario: If US-Iran tensions escalate further or if Iranian forces intercept a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, Oil prices could be in for a spike. For WTI, a clean close above $65 could open the door for a run toward $66.60.The Bearish Correction Scenario: If diplomacy in Oman yields a concrete breakthrough or if the focus shifts back to the global supply surplus, prices could retreat sharply.Technical support for WTI sits at $62.40 (200-day MA), with a break below that level potentially exposing a decline toward $55.00 the lower bound of the long-term trending channel.Long-term Forecast: Most major agencies, including the EIA, maintain a bearish outlook for the remainder of 2026. However, thus far the geopolitical situation continues to cast a shadow over oil markets.Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver is the only precious metal trading higher in today's session, leaving traders with a sense of urgency: Is it time to enter at a discount, or is it better to stay away?With tricky times ahead, it is essential to step back and develop a game plan to avoid traps.The metals run was gigantic, spanning from mid-2024 to February, and it could still be early to call its end, with Gold back above $5,000.The craziest part, however, is realizing that Silver was just around $32 a year ago, quite a change in value when we see $30 moves in just one volatile session these days. zoom_out_map Metals performance since last February – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 Volatility is toning down with uncertainty still running high, and traders are looking to solve at least a few pieces of the puzzle throughout this week's US Data.Metals rebounded in the past session, benefiting from the dollar's struggling denominator and participants' reluctance to liquidate their safe-haven assets while the geopolitical picture remains blurry.After this morning's miss in US Retail Sales (0% vs 0.4% exp), Markets remain cautious ahead of tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls and Friday's CPI report before moving their pieces further. If the data takes a dovish turn (missing expectations), the pricing for a Fed cut in March can change swiftly. It is currently priced around 20%. Another tricky part will be the waiting between tomorrow's release and Friday's inflation report, but with latest Fed communications, there seems to be a certain tilt towards employment so NFP could lead the next trend in Metals.We will dive into a Silver multi-timeframe analysis to prepare for Non-Farm Payrolls, with a few scenarios depending on tomorrow's data. Let's get right into it. Read More:Markets Today: French jobless rate hits four-year highs, gold steady, nikkei extends gains. US data now in focusNFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesRout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?Silver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action on the daily is not showing much certainty, with Silver trading back above its 50-Day Moving Average but the RSI showing opposite, bearish rejection signs. Nevertheless, the past sessions bring prices back to interesting levels ahead of upcoming action.Having troughed at $64, Silver is trading close to $20 higher in the establishment of a new intermediary trading range.The higher timeframe $80 to $84 pivot serves as a guide for upcoming action.A dovish Non-Farm payrolls (anything below 40K, exp 70K) should fuel a rally above as traders price cuts: A session close above $84 should see continuation .Any as-expected release or higher than expected should see rejection of current levels. Any push below $80 should see continuation back towards the $70 to $72 Support zone. Depending on the extent of a beat, the price could even break the $64 lows.A risk-off event could push Silver higher, but flows would go more towards Gold in such scenario.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver 4H Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the rebound last week, it would be early to call for a resumption of the rally.The 4H RSI is also pointing to a rejection ahead of the Non-Farm payroll, but the movement could stay calm before – Keep a close eye on the descending trendline.Any break of the $70 support hints first at a retest of the $60 to $64 support. Any move below would require an updated analysis, but traders can look at the $50 to $54 Major Support.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:2025 Record Major Pivot $80 to $84 (immediate rejection)Session Highs $84Higher Timeframe Major Resistance $90 to $95Feb 4 highs $92.20Support Levels:Major 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)$50 to $54 Major SupportOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00$45.55 October 28 lows1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver 1H Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The immediate action looks toppy but to be even more realistic, looks like there won't be much action this afternoon.Except for a small intraday Head & Shoulders forming, pointing to $77 Silver throughout the session (first need to breach the 50H MA), the wisest position to take is to wait for tomorrow before looking for direction. In the meantime, the most impatient can expect a $77 to $83 range ahead of tomorrow's NFP release (8:30 A.M. ET)Safe Trades and Happy 10th of February (it's my birthday)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The high-stakes January 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, now set for release on February 11, 2026, has a consensus forecast of +70,000 jobs.The report includes annual benchmark revisions to 2025 data, which could be key.The result will determine short-term movement for the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the Dow Jones (DJIA), with a "Goldilocks" outcome (80k–100k) being ideal for equities.Most Read: NFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/ozThe January 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, originally scheduled for early February, was delayed due to a partial federal government shutdown and is now set for release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.This release is exceptionally high-stakes because it contains the annual benchmark revisions, which will recalibrate the entire trend of 2025. Markets are currently debating whether the labor market is in a "low-hire, low-fire" stabilization or a deeper, entrenched slowdown. zoom_out_map Source: ING, Macrobond NFP Preview: The data to watch Headline NFP Forecast: Consensus estimates center around +70,000 jobs. While this appears weak compared to historical averages, it reflects a "stabilizing" trend following late-2025 volatility.The "March Cut" Bar: The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January. For a March rate cut to become the "base case," this NFP report would likely need to see a significant miss (below 50k) or a jump in the unemployment rate toward 4.6%+.Benchmark Revisions: Keep a close eye on the revisions to 2025 data. If previous months are revised sharply downward, it suggests the Fed may have stayed "too high for too long," increasing the urgency for a March cut.There is also a growing expectation that we will get benchmark revisions lower by about 60000-70000. zoom_out_map Source: Macrobond, ING Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Dow Jones The DXY enters this week testing the 98.00 support level and appears technically oversold.Bullish Scenario (Stronger Data): A print above 120k would likely spark a "violent short-covering bounce." As markets price out the March cut and converge with the Fed’s "one-cut" dot plot for 2026, the DXY could rally toward the 99.30 (200-day SMA) area.Bearish Scenario (Weak Data): A print below 50k or negative growth would validate the dovish camp. This would likely drive the DXY through current support toward 97.60, as a March rate cut becomes nearly fully priced in.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Dow Jones (DJIA)The Dow has recently hit all-time highs, but the delayed NFP creates a "good news is bad news" paradox.The "Goldilocks" Outcome: A report near 80k–100k with moderate wage growth (0.3% m/m) would be ideal for equities. It suggests the economy isn't cratering, but isn't hot enough to stop the Fed from easing eventually.The "Hard Landing" Fear: A significantly weak number (negative payrolls) might initially boost rate-cut hopes, but could quickly pivot into recession fears, leading to a "sell-the-news" event for the Dow as earnings growth expectations are slashed.The Hawkish Shock: If payrolls surprise to the upside (200k+), the Dow could see a sharp pullback as the "higher-for-longer" narrative returns, putting pressure on high-valuation industrial and tech components.Dow Jones Daily Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The transition to the Warsh era Adding to the complexity is the pending transition in Fed leadership. With the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell, the market is pricing in a shift toward a more "hawkish but pragmatic" Fed. Warsh is expected to prioritize price stability while being open to a "massive positive supply shock" strategy that aligns with the current administration's deregulation and tax-cut agenda.This political context complicates the Fed's reaction function; the committee may be reluctant to cut rates aggressively if they believe the administration's fiscal stimulus will soon boost growth and potentially reignite inflation later in the year.The risks to the outlook Ongoing volatility within the AI and software sectors is sparking fresh concerns regarding the durability of "US exceptionalism," which currently leans heavily on aggressive AI investment and the wealth effect of surging stock prices on high-income consumers.This anxiety has been further intensified by softening labor market data. In response, swap rates, a key indicator of Federal Reserve expectations, have dropped 12 basis points since the latest Fed meeting, effectively pricing in an additional half-cut for the year.While a rate reduction in June is now considered a certainty by the markets, the probability of an April cut sits at a toss-up. For the moment, this shift in expectations may have reached its limit; barring significantly distressed employment figures, the Fed is unlikely to accelerate its easing cycle before the summer months.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.After a volatile stretch, traders buckle for a heavy-slate of US data.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Tech, Metals and Cryptos meltdown It is surprising to conclude a week that hasn't been marked by any crazy geopolitical headline or regime-changing event, yet markets were no less volatile.After last week's gigantic drop in Metals, a wave of anxiety took traders by surprise, who embarked on a deleveraging journey – As we've seen since October, the previously undefeated Tech/Software sector and Cryptocurrencies are taking a streak of gut punches.That's the particularity of high-volatility assets – standing at the extreme of the risk spectrum, they get battered a bit more than their more conservative counterparts.Bitcoin and altcoins were the hardest hit by the recent market developments. The face of the digital asset Market corrected by more than 30% in a matter of three weeks of trading, reaching $60,000 in Thursday evening action. Quite a selloff.But it seems we are indeed in the age of dip-buying, with prices bouncing back again today, $10,000 higher, and the mood not worsening much from the Thursday dips – Is this a dead cat bounce?Can't say for sure, as we are in uncharted waters; some previous corrections extended beyond 50%, but participants will gain more certainty as time goes on.Nasdaq also lost beyond 7%, leading US Indexes to their weekly tumbles before recovering back to 25,000, despite record earnings and CapEx announcements. The latter is what investors could be punishing with AI taking its part in this week's cloudy mood.Artificial Intelligence is now feared to be causing the latest cracks in the mid-tier employment reports received throughout the week.The Dow Jones was the star of the show, powered by strong outperformance from the Consumer Defensive, Industrial, and Financial sectors, casually reaching the 50,000 Milestone in the process!The sudden rise in the Manufacturing PMIs also affected the flows! zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView It's quite a strong trend in Equities that has developed since the beginning of 2026.I hope that some investors read our month-old edition on that aspect.Nevertheless, it isn't like the sky is clear if you take a step back. Except for Energy, Defensive stocks and Emerging Markets breaking out, some rough charts are crippling Participants mood and volatility remains extremely elevated.And it isn't the investor's best friend.While US-Iran discussions are currently ongoing (and continuing throughout the weekend), skepticism is high among the two sides.Conversations were reported to be constructive, yet demands from the US side are strict, and could see resistance from Iran – they rejected US calls to halt uranium enrichment and that's pretty much all we know for now.A reminder that 30,000 casualties emerged from the Iranian revolts, and the toll could be higher – A very tragic development.This surely is one of the more anxiety-prone developments for Markets which will need to be tracked closely throughout the weekend and coming weeks.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals caught some strays throughout the week but have remained resilient with the uncertainty ahead.They are only back down to their 2026 starts, so nothing too concerning for now – But expect some more craziness next week with the NFP and CPI reports! Discover More:Stock Markets and Tech sector breathe again – Dow Jones to new All-Time Highs!US Dollar Index (DXY) tests 98.00 but shows signs of weakness ahead of NFPPrecious metals after the correction: stabilisation, not a new rallyThe Week Ahead – High tier US data on the deckAsia Pacific Markets – Japan Snap elections and China CPI Next week doesn't hold too many releases for APAC markets but will still have a high influence on Markets.The main event is the Japanese general elections that will take place on Sunday morning (Saturday evening in North America) and will see whether recent explosions in the Nikkei 225, at the cost of the Yen, will be warranted.Expect a volatile FX open on Sunday.China will also publish their monthly CPI data which is an important tracker for the AUD and NZD and can also affect Global equities.About the New Zealand Dollar, traders will have to check in on Thursday evening for the RBNZ Inflation expectations, a key test after the Kiwi's recent show of strength.Europe and UK Markets – Swiss Inflation, UK GDP and EU plenary debate Europe hasn't been subject to much volatility for the past month with traders focusing more on commodities and developments elsewhere.But with the Swiss Franc getting quite a lift from Market volatility, its look as the main safe-haven currency could get tested next Friday with the CPI release for Switzerland.Traders will see if they can officially close out negative rates pricing for this year.The only major data that will be released from the old continent comes from the UK, which releases its GDP data on Thursday and could have a strong influence on the GBP after the more dovish Bank of England meeting!Discover: Bank of England moves closer to rate cuts. March a real turning point for monetary policy and the PoundNorth American Markets – US data triple-whammy: NFP, CPI and Retail Sales The recently ended partial Shutdown pushed the Non-Farm Payrolls report to this week, and is taking the Market on quite a rocky path ahead.Monday will bring its wave of Fed speeches, and it is undoubtedly the least-packed session of the week for the US.Waller's views could become interesting again as he officially got taken off the Federal Reserve Chair list so that he might take a more hawkish or at least neutral tone.Tuesday will kick off the heavy slate of data week with Retail Sales (exp at 0.5%), but it will only open the door to the larger releases.Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 A.M. and should bring further certainty to the US Jobs market after this week’s few warnings.But participants will only be able to sigh on Friday, depending on whether the US inflation report continues to show some easing. The CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% m/m. Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran talks, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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