⦁ GBP outlook has turned bearish: Sticky inflation, slowing growth, and tight fiscal prospects tilt risks to the downside despite earlier stability versus G10.⦁ BoE likely to cut once more, then pause: After a split August 25 bp cut, a single 25 bp cut in November is plausible, with futures sceptical about further easing.⦁ Inflation is persistent and services-led: Core ~3.8% y/y; services ~5% y/y; broad pricing pressure and elevated expectations keep disinflation progress limited.Recent performance and policy signals For most of 2025 sterling was broadly stable against the G10 basket despite a marked weakening of the US dollar and a modest strengthening of the euro. The latest data and turbulence in monetary policy suggest the balance of risks for GBP has tilted to the downside, so earlier, more optimistic views on the currency may now lack sufficient support.After an unexpectedly strong first quarter supported by above average exports to the United States, April and May weakened, which was offset by a strong June, leaving second quarter growth at 0.3 per cent quarter on quarter. In June the Bank of England signalled a more dovish stance, briefly lifting expectations for rate cuts. Higher inflation then cooled those assumptions.In early August a 25 bp cut passed only on a second vote. In the first vote four members favoured no change, four supported a 25 bp cut and one argued for a 50 bp reduction. The economic picture is also harder to interpret because of quality issues in ONS data.Inflation remains persistently high Core inflation remains stubborn. For nearly two years its seasonally adjusted month on month pace has hovered around 0.28 per cent, clearly above target. After a brief episode of goods disinflation, goods prices have accelerated again, while services inflation has eased slightly.Headline CPI and core CPI have been rising year on year for several months, with core at about 3.8 per cent year on year. Services inflation is around 5 per cent year on year and has oscillated near that level since last autumn. Overall, price pressure has not abated. The ONS has not published PPI since January. Import costs are likely falling, as suggested by declining container freight rates.The Bank of England has comparatively few concerns about industrial goods excluding energy, where price growth is only moderate. Services generate the larger problem, with wages running above trend. Pricing pressure is broad based across many categories and both firms and households report elevated price expectations.For now companies can accept lower margins to avoid choking demand, but that may change, with more costs passed through to customers, which would lift inflation over a longer horizon. UK CPI and core CPI inflation, y/y, source: Bloomberg Growth is unbalanced and increasingly reliant on services The United Kingdom’s growth dynamics are not encouraging. Since the fourth quarter of 2022 almost all gains in GDP have come from the public sector. Without government spending the economy would have been in stagnation for more than two years.In 2024 goods exports fell back to their 2019 level. Combined with a weak industrial sector this points to a growing dependence on services. If services were to weaken as well, the outlook would deteriorate quickly. Real wages are rising, but this is not feeding through to consumption because households are increasing savings. UK GDP growth, q/q., source: Bloomberg Labour market momentum is cooling The labour market has been losing momentum for more than a year. The downtrend began well before the change of government and is consistent with the lagged impact of restrictive Bank of England policy. The vacancy to unemployment ratio, which is central to the Bank’s framework, has fallen below its 2019 average.Public finances are tight and October could be pivotal The public finances are stretched. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves faces a difficult balancing act. On the one hand she aims to show that current commitments will be funded from taxation. On the other she has pledged not to raise taxes. Changes due in October that increase employer contributions could bring additional revenue to the Exchequer, but they may also push up labour costs.Meanwhile spending needs, for example on defence, are rising. The October Budget is likely to be pivotal and could generate higher volatility in GBP.Policy outlook points to one cut and then wait and see The Bank of England faces a classic dilemma. It must continue to tackle persistent inflation while also supporting a slowing economy. A single cut of 25 bp in November looks plausible, followed by a shift to a wait and see stance.Futures pricing remains sceptical about further easing this year according to Overnight Index Swaps. The situation could change if forthcoming data disappoint, which would likely exert downward pressure on sterling. UK Bank of England Official Bank Rate Near term upside risks versus medium term headwinds In the near term positive data surprises are possible given low expectations and the likelihood that recent prints understated the underlying trend. Over the medium and longer term structural growth constraints, a cooler labour market and tight fiscal conditions may dominate. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 28Markets were impatient for news regarding any progress in Ukraine-Russia talks, amid a fairly dull geopolitical week – and unfortunately, the German Chancellor Merz just announced that Zelenskyy-Putin talks will not take place, at least for now.Oil rallied after these news but the spike saw some rejection after reaching a key technical pivot zone.We have yet to see much diplomatic progress this week. Read More: US Oil (WTI) breaks $65, Russia–Ukraine talks regress It also seems that Japan isn't too fond of the current state of things regarding US tariffs, with the Japanese trade negotiator Nakazawa planning to come back to the United States to resume talks.Apart from that, Nvidia who reported earnings after-close yesterday saw some decent selling in today's session – Some political backdrops are to be monitored with the China and US AI Cold War still ongoing.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold and Nasdaq saw their best weekly performance today.Strong Nvidia earnings and even better Magnificient 7 performance lifted the tech-focused index.I invite you to check out our most recent Silver and metals analysis to spot why the ongoing demand is strong – Gold's rise was surely supplemented by the lack of progress in Eastern Europe's diplomatic talks.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 28 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar saw some decent selling flows despite beating its Quarterly GDP release, which allowed the NZD to lead another low volume and volatility FX session.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Today's session is not exactly over for JPY traders – Monthly Tokyo inflation data is expected to get released at 19:50 in the evening session. This piece of inflation data tends to be more influential than other japanese inflation releases.The week will conclude with Retail Sales for Germany at 2:00 A.M followed by their CPI at 8:00 A.M.The North American Session will also welcome Canadian GDP data and Core PCE at the same time (8:30 A.M.)Later in the morning, Chicago PMI will get released at 9:45 and then, U-of-Mich Surveys with important inflation expectation readings.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil is starting to push higher in a strong move as we speak.After a seven-day consolidation between $63 and $64, prospects for better war outlooks and lower supply helped Oil prices rise from their lows.A few days of rise tested the lower bound of the previous month's range ($65 to $70.5) as Markets sought more information on the Ukraine-Russia conflict.Despite the previous weeks of geopolitical meetings between the US, Ukrainian, Russian, and EU Presidents, talks have been in limbo, and the lack of progress, combined with repeated assaults by Russia on Kiev, is not helping the situation.The German Chancellor Merz just announced that there would be no Zelenskyy-Putin talks, not a big surprise when looking at the lack of headlines going towards that direction.That comes despite US's Kellogg trying to make things sound better than they really are.Discover technical levels for WTI trading as price are shooting higher.US Oil Daily Chart US Oil Daily Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The most recent lows in the commodity allowed the formation of an intermediate downward channel, with prices starting to shoot since the last technical rebound.Some accumulation had led to a breakout which stopped at $65.77 highs on Monday, but the fundamentals not progressing have led to the ongoing rally.Sanctions on India have been re-iterated by US President Trump and it seems that economically pressuring Russia into a ceasefire will be one of the only ways to reach some type of truce. The President was saying nice words too early, with the mess-around talks of Putin coming to watch football at the World Cup.As I am writing this, Bulls are pushing within the $65 Zone.US Oil 4H Chart US Oil 4H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bullish momentum is building in the ongoing bullish candle – the latest headlines seem to attract buyers.Look at a break above the 200-period 4H MA, a break above should attract even more buying.Level to place on your WTI Charts:Resistance Levels$65 Pivot Zone (getting tested right now)Monday highs and 200 4H-MA 65.70$66 to $67 Mid-range levelhigh range resistance $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAsSupport Levels$62.00 to $62.50 consolidation supportWednesday lows $62.19 (current double bottom)$60.5 Low of May Range$55 to $57 2025 lows Main supportUS Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current move is strong, watch for potential continuation if the move keeps on going.It seems that some decent short-selling has been accumulated in the past weeks, and a short-squeeze could come into play – keep an eye on the 4H 200-period MA mentioned above.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Starting with a UK national holiday, coupled with a noticeably sparse UK economic calendar, the current trading week has been somewhat uneventful for cable traders.Having only recently secured its best six-monthly performance since 2020, riding a wave of dollar downside, GBP/USD currently floats above the key level of 1.35000 and looks for daily support.GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today’s session Happening some hours ago, a better-than-expected US GDP result introduced some immediate GBP/USD selling pressure as the dollar strengthenedOtherwise, and following recent revelations surrounding the Bank of England and Federal Reserve monetary policy, cable downside remains somewhat limitedGBP/USD: Shifting Bank of England narrative offers cable support In a few words, markets are currently readjusting expectations of further GBP rate cuts, with the latest reduction to 4% signifying the fifth rate cut made by the BoE in 2025.This change in narrative is at least in part thanks to a series of hawkish economic data points, most significantly a major outperformance in services PMI and hotter-than-expected inflation as part of data released last week.Read more on UK PMIs: UK Services PMI improves, pound continues losing streakThis, especially regarding the latter, might offer the Bank of England an opportunity to pause, or even end easing efforts, should they deem appropriate in their upcoming September decision.While the recent vote ultimately concluded with a rate reduction, the room was noticeably split, again adding to the rationale that the Bank of England is becoming increasingly hawkish, having already cut several times in 2025.At least one outcome of the above is immediate support for GBP/USD, which goes double when markets overwhelmingly predict a 25 basis point cut will be the Federal Reserve’s next move on September 17th.GBP/USD: UK-US yield spread case-in-point for monetary policy expectation While expectations that the Bank of England is changing its stance on monetary policy remain ever-intangible in the market aether, comparing the current direction of UK-US yield spreads offers more concrete evidence of a shifting narrative. US 2-Year bond yield (US02Y), TVC, TradingView, 28/08/2025 Best explained by recent price action in 2Y treasuries, Monday saw UK 2Y sovereign bond yields meet their highest level since April, while its US counterpart has fallen to 3-month lows.GBP/USD: US PCE inflation to offer finale to week 35 While this week’s trading has been nothing to write home about regarding UK economic events, the same cannot be said for the United States, set to end the week with the infamous PCE inflation report.Revered as the Fed’s ‘preferred’ measure of inflation, the Federal Reserve will hope to see inflation at, or lower than, consensus, especially considering expectations of a 25 bps in the upcoming decision. Core PCE Expenditures Index (MoM), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYCCore PCE Expenditures Index (YoY), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYCPCE Expenditures Index (YoY), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYCPCE Expenditures Index (YoY), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYC GBP/USD, OANDA, TradingView, 28/08/2025 Read the latest coverage from MarketPulse: US Oil (WTI) breaks $65, Russia–Ukraine talks regress Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - China Chipmakers Rally Most Read: Nvidia releases earnings and getting ready for the monthly US GDP release – Market wrap for the North American session - August 27Stock prices in Asia were unstable on Thursday due to worries about the future business of the major AI company, Nvidia, in China.These concerns hurt the Asian companies that supply parts to Nvidia, causing their stock prices to fall. At the same time, the situation was very good for Nvidia's competitors in China, whose stock prices jumped significantly. This mix of positive and negative news created a lot of uncertainty, leading the overall Asian market to finish the day slightly lower. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS swung between gains and losses, and was last down 0.4%. The Nikkei 225 was last up 0.7%.It was a great day for Nvidia's competitors in China, as their stock prices soared. SMIC saw its stock jump over 9%, while another rival, Cambricon Technologies, saw its stock climb more than 8%. The performance of these two companies was so strong that they single-handedly lifted a major index of Chinese tech stocks (STAR 50 Index) by 5%.There was also a report which stated that local Chinese companies plan to increase AI chip output next year.Bank of Japan official Nakagawa, confirmed that they will continue to raise interest rates as long as the economy grows as they expect. He emphasized that the bank is paying very close attention to a major business confidence survey scheduled for October 1st. The results of this survey will be crucial for understanding how recent trade negotiations have been affecting Japanese companies.European Open - NVIDIA Outlook Eases AI Slowdown Fears On Thursday morning, European stock markets went up, mostly because the major AI chip company, Nvidia, reported strong results, which eased investor worries about the AI industry. However, there is still some uncertainty about Nvidia's future business in China.The pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX was up 0.3% at 556.53.This news led to mixed results for other European chip companies, as Nvidia's forecast, while still very good, wasn't as spectacular as some investors had hoped. Individual stocks such as ASML and BESI edged lower while ASM international rose around 1%.Overall, it was a positive start to the day for many European businesses, with the food delivery company Delivery Hero and the drinks maker Pernod Ricard seeing their stock prices rise 3.8% and 4% respectively after reporting good earnings.The French stock market also recovered some of its losses from earlier in the week with the CAC 40 index up 0.7%. The losses earlier this week had been caused by political instability in the country.On the FX front, the euro's value remained stable against the US dollar today at about $1.16. This follows a good period for the euro, which has been getting stronger for the last three weeks and is now up 2% for the month of August.Meanwhile, the US dollar was generally weaker against other currencies. This is because most traders now believe that US interest rates will be cut next month. As an example of the dollar's weakness, its value fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen with the pair trading around 147.13 at the time of writing.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices saw a drop with Brent Crude down around 0.8% to trade at $67.49 per barrel.Gold prices continue to hold near yesterday's highs, trading around the $3395/oz handle at the time of writing.For more on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Push up towards medium-term range resistance zone as Fed’s independence erodesEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will bring the ECB meeting minutes later in the session.Before that though, we will get a look at Euro Area consumer confidence data which will be interesting after yesterdays disappointing German consumer confidence data yesterday.The US session will however bring a flurry of data which includes jobless claims data and the highly anticipated US GDP QoQ 2nd estimates. The US economic growth (GDP) figure might be adjusted slightly higher than the original 3.0% estimate. Even if this news gives the US dollar a temporary boost, it probably won't last long.Later tonight, a key US Federal Reserve official, Christopher Waller, is scheduled to give a speech. He is already in favor of lowering interest rates, and he might sound even more supportive of that idea after the recent jobs report confirmed his worries that the job market is getting weaker. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has completed the head and shoulder pattern and is eyeing a potential breakout.The period-14 RSI has also broken below the 50 neutral level, a sign that bearish momentum is now firmly in play.If the head and shoulder pattern finally gets a breakout, there is a possibility of a 110 point decline toward the 9120 area which would line up perfectly with the 200-day MA. (yellow line).Interesting inflection point for the FTSE 100 after multiple fresh all-time highs in the last few weeks. This sets the stage for a potential deeper retracement.FTSE Daily Chart, August 27. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential bullish reversal at 50-day moving average” dated on 21 August 2025, considering the latest second-quarter earnings release of Nvidia, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut and largest market-cap component stock of the Nasdaq 100.Since our last publication, the price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures) have staged the expected bullish reversal, rallied by 2%, and hit the intermediate resistance zone of 23,580/660 as expected. Thereafter, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has drifted in a sideways range of 1% since this Monday, 25 August, ahead of Nvidia earnings release scheduled after the close of Wednesday, 27 August’s US session.In today’s early Asian session, the Nasdaq 100 futures have shed an intraday loss of -0.2% in reaction to Nvidia’s after-hours share price negative performance of -3.1% after the release of its second-quarter earnings.Despite Nvidia’s lackluster ex-post earnings share price performance, the short to medium-term bullish trend phases of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index remain intact.Let’s decipher in greater detail.Nvidia tumbled -3% (after hours), but the bullish trend remains intact Fig. 1: Nvidia revenue by business segments with data centre y/y growth as of Q2 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Fig. 2: Nvidia minor trend as of 28 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) The lacklustre after-hours share price performance of Nvidia has been attributed to its significant Artificial Intelligence (AI)- centric data centre revenue, which came in below expectations at US$41 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of US$41.3 billion.Year-on-year growth in data centre revenue has continued to decelerate, easing from a staggering 155% in Q2 2024 to 56% in Q2 2025.Despite the Q2 slowdown in data centre revenue growth, Nvidia has issued a positive outlook on its data centre business segment during the earnings call. It anticipates a US$3 to $4 trillion AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade, presenting long-term growth opportunities. Also, Nvidia is on track to achieve over US$20 billion in sovereign AI revenue in 2025.In addition, Nvidia is preparing for the next generation of graphics processing units (GPUs) with the Rubin platform that is expected to ramp up in production in the latter part of 2025.Lastly, based on a technical analysis standpoint, the intra-session drop of -5.3% seen in Nvidia in the after-hours session upon the release of its Q2 earnings has managed to stall at its medium-term ascending channel support in place since 7 April 2025 low, and came close to its 50-day moving average (see Fig. 2).Positive technical indicators, combined with upbeat guidance from Nvidia’s data centre segment, are expected to support its share price, potentially creating a reinforcing effect on the broader Nasdaq 100. Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 28 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index with tightened key short-term pivotal support now at 23,308. A clearance above 23,660 reinforces the new bullish impulsive sequence to retest the current all-time high area at 23,930 before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 24,090 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).Key elements The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have staged a bullish breakout and retested its former minor descending resistance, drawn from its current all-time high level of 23,986, now turns into an intermediate pull-back support at 23,450.The US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has now traded back above its 20-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has staged a rebound after a test on its parallel ascending support, which suggests bullish momentum condition remains intact.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 23,308 key support negates the bullish tone on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index for another round of minor corrective decline to retest the intermediate support at 23,056, with a maximum limit set at the 22,960/22,945 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 27One of the main subjects around (muted) Markets in this end of August is the challenge of the FED's Independence, supporting metals and leaving a sense of uncertainty all around.I suggest you to read this very nice piece on the subject. Our most recent article on Silver and metals also explore these views in detail.Nvidia have released their earnings with a $1.05 EPS beating expectations, however Nasdaq futures have corrected further since the release – pretty surprising, Markets might have expected even more.Sell the news on earnings beats are not very good signs for future outlooks so keep an eye on this, Tech stocks are still seeing some relative outflows towards more defensive stocks.Nonetheless, Participants are still awaiting for September to move their pieces further and bring back some volatility to Markets – The biggest date to note in your calendars is September 5th, the next Non-Farm Payrolls report. Don't forget to log in to our monthly NFP previews.In other news, one of Donald Trump's companies is moving further with the idea to buy cryptocurrencies, leading to another decent rally in Altcoins (Solana just hit $210 but some profit taking is currently going on). Read More:Silver (XAG) and other metals in focus as the Federal Reserve independance gets challengedUS Dollar whipsaws and undecided Markets — North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Volatility is still very subdued with most of the most traded assets hanging around unchanged in today's session.Volatility should rise a bit towards the rest of the week with the upcoming data.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 27 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar had started the day being the strongest of majors, but since reaching the highs of its ongoing consolidation (mentioned in our NA Mid-Week markets update), the Greenback shot back down.The Canadian Dollar however is shining bright today, and ironically enough, Sellers have brought back the pair below the 1.38130 level held by bulls – USDCAD is now back into its previous month's range (a detailed piece on the NA currency coming up tomorrow).A look at Economic data releasing in tomorrow's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (Much awaited) volatility should make a slight comeback tomorrow with the Monthly GDP releases for both the US and Canada.Expectations are for a 3.1% Annualized US release. Also, don't forget the weekly Jobless claims.Elsewhere, this evening Australian Dollar traders will be awaiting Private Consumption Expenditure data, releasing at 21:30 and contributing to the RBA outlook for future cuts.The evening will see a few key events including a speech from FED's Waller (very influential) at 18:00 and the Japanese Tokyo CPI release (the most important of the 2 CPI releases)Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The most recent moves in the US Dollar may have mean-reverted in Forex markets, but the same can't be said about precious metals.They had been subject to some selling pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium but a conjunction of a dovish interpretation of FED Chair Jerome Powell's speech and growing concerns about the Federal Reserve's independance have brought demand back.A former Board member of the FED (able to vote at every FOMC meeting), Lisa Cook has recently been fired by President Trump "For cause" – She had been appointed by President Biden in 2022 and has been dissenting for rate cuts; but the reasoning has been valid with the growing inflation concerns from tariffs. (PPI just came in at 0.9% vs 0.2% m/m for those who have forgot).A former FED governor Lael Brainard expressed her fears concerning this attack on the Federal Reserve's Independence.However, this has helped metals to come back on the front-scene: Since marking lows on the last trading day of July, Silver is up 6% and saw another leg higher after last Friday's speech.Since, the metal has been consolidating at its relative highs, a sign that usually helps for pursued upside. Let's take a look at the charts for Silver (XAG) to spot breakout points and key technical levels. Read More: US Dollar whipsaws and undecided Markets — North American Mid-Week Market UpdateMetals Daily performance A look at the daily performance in Metals, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum Metals aren't shining too bright in today's session, however they are holding strong.Most commonly traded Metals performance in August 2025 Metals comparative performance since the past month, August 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver Daily and intraday technical analysisSilver Daily Chart Silver Daily Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since our last analysis for Silver which had noted the formation of a head and shoulders formation, bulls have broken its materialization for the current consolidation.Holding between the $38 to $38.50 Pivot Zone and the 2025 Resistance highs, Markets seem to be waiting for further news before moving XAG further.In technical analysis, consolidation at relative highs tend to be good signs for further continuation, particularly as Silver is still evolving within a longer-run upward channel.Do monitor US Dollar strength and rate expectations for fundamentals invalidating these technicals.Silver 4H Chart Silver 4H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Coming back from overbought levels on the 4H timeframe, Silver is rebounding on both the Pivot Zone and key Moving Averages, which may lead to further upside.Tomorrow's US GDP and Friday's Core PCE will add to volatility quite largely, so keep an eye on these releases.Breaking the $39 relative highs should confirm further probabilities of new yearly highs being reached – the 2025 highs are at $39.50.On the other hand, breaching the Key MAs would show more balanced price action ahead.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Friday Highs $392025 High resistance between $39 to $39.502011 resistance $40 to $41Support Levels:Immediate Pivot 38 to $38.54H MA 50 and 200 $38.152012 Highs Support around 37.50Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings: Navigating the Blackwell Supercycle Amid Geopolitical CrosscurrentsEUR/USD continued its slide to trade below the 1.1600 handle as markets await key US data. The US Dollar has shrugged off concerns around FED independence after US President Trump announced his intention to fire Fed policymaker Lisa Cook.The question is whether or not the US Dollar will face another selloff if President Trump succeeds with his plan?Trump’s Move to Fire Fed Policymaker Cook First, Cook is fighting the decision, and it will likely end up in court. Second, her exit won’t have much effect on upcoming meetings. With Powell still leading, markets expect decisions to stay focused on data, and the small number of dovish voices isn’t enough to push for faster or bigger rate cuts.The real impact of politics on the Fed will likely show after Powell’s term ends in May 2026, unless Trump removes him earlier. By then, a new Fed chair with a preference for rate cuts would still need support from the committee, but that’s too far ahead for markets to predict. Plus, if Powell lowers rates by 100 basis points to around 3.5% as expected, the new chair would have less room to cut further.So far, the biggest market effect has been the poor performance of 30-year Treasuries. However, selloffs in long-term Treasuries are more likely to hurt the dollar when caused by fiscal worries rather than inflation. With short-term yields staying steady, it’s no surprise the dollar remains strong.German GfK Consumer Sentiment Falls Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped to -23.6 for September 2025, down from -21.7 in August, missing predictions of -22.0. This is the lowest level since April.The income outlook fell sharply (4.1 vs 15.2 in August), ending five months of improvement and hitting its lowest point since March. This was due to growing fears of job losses, inflation uncertainty, and the effects of U.S. trade policies.Economic expectations also dropped (2.7 vs 10.1), marking the second monthly decline and the lowest level in six months, as hopes for a recovery this year faded after a rough start for the new federal government.Willingness to spend fell for the third month (-10.1 vs -9.2), reaching its lowest since February. Meanwhile, the tendency to save slightly decreased (15.8 vs 16.4), offering little relief.“With this third drop in a row, consumer sentiment is clearly stuck in a summer slump,” said Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM.Euro Resilient in Face of Uncertainties in France Despite the drop in German consumer sentiment and the cloud hanging over France, the Euro has remained resilient.French Prime Minister François Bayrou has tied his €44 billion budget plan to an important confidence vote in parliament on September 8. This has sparked worries that the government could collapse or new elections might be called, creating uncertainty about political stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy.The political instability and potential for snap elections in France continue to grow, but similar to the US markets, the Euro appears unfazed for now.Looking Ahead Market participants will now turn their attention to a slew of high impact data releases to end the week.Thursday’s schedule is important, featuring Eurozone confidence surveys and the ECB’s meeting notes, which could reveal more about their recent discussions on inflation and growth. In the U.S., Weekly Jobless Claims will give an early look at the job market, while Friday’s Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, will be the week’s main highlight. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Technical Analysis - EUR/USD EUR/USD has bounced off a key area of support today resting at 1.15800 which was the recent swing low on August 25.Having failed to record a four-hour candle close below this level, the recent change in character favoring bulls remains in play.Currently trading around the 1.1640, there is resistance ahead at the 1.1650 handle before the 1.1700 and 1.1750 areas come into focus.The period-14 RSI is just below overbought territory and may worth watching.There is alos the bull flag pattern which is in play with the top end of pattern resting around the 1.1740 area. A four-hour candle close above this level could set the stage for a 380 odd pip move to the upside. This would take EUR/USD beyond the 1.2000 handle.Support may be found at 1.1580, 1.1527 and of course the crucial 1.1450 handles.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, August 27, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - EUR/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on EUR/USD with 61% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that EUR/USD prices could continue to slide in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/IUSD is trading at 0.6468, down 0.40% on the day.Australian CPI jumps to 2.8% Australia's CPI for July surprised on the upside, jumping to 2.8% y/y. This followed a 1.9% gain in June and was above the market estimate of 2.3%. The spike in inflation, the highest level since July 2024, was driven by a sharp increase in electricity prices due to the end of government electricity rebates for many households. The trimmed mean, a key gauge of core CPI, rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.The surprise jump in inflation has dampened expectations for a September rate cut. The money markets have reduced the probability of a rate cut to 22%, down from 30% before the inflation release. Despite the hot inflation report, the Reserve Bank is expected to continue its easing cycle, with a 61% probability of a cut in November. The central bank remains very concerned about inflation but is also focused on employment, with the labor market showing signs of weakening.The minutes of the RBA's August meeting said that upcoming rate decisions would depend on the data. The RBA meets next on September 19 and there are three key releases in September prior to the meeting - inflation, GDP and employment. The RBA has surprised the markets before and if these upcoming releases show a drop in economic activity or inflation, the RBA could respond with a rate cut next month.Trump says he has fired Fed GovernorThe nasty feud between the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump has taken another twist, as the President said he had removed Fed Governor Lisa Cook due over charges that she made false statements on mortgage applications. The Fed says that Trump does not have authority to fire Cook. This latest spat further undermines the credibility of the US and could hurt the US dollar.AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD has dropped below support at 0.6486 and is testing 0.6476. Below, there is support at at 0.6460There is resistance at 0.6502 and 0.6512 AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart, August 27, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Artificial intelligence (AI) juggernaut Nvidia will report its second-quarter earnings after the close of the US session on Wednesday, 27 August.Its ex-post share price actions, earnings results, and guidance are likely to trigger a significant feedback loop back into the broader US stock market and globally as well. The medium- to long-term bullish momentum in global stock markets has been sustained largely by optimism surrounding the transformative potential of emerging AI technologies. Investors anticipate that these innovations could deliver significant productivity gains across industries, even though such benefits have yet to be fully realized or empirically proven.This forward-looking sentiment has, to a large extent, counterbalanced the drag from protectionist measures, particularly the tariff policies enacted by the current US administration, which pose risks to global trade flows and economic growth.Nvidia’s ex-post earnings share performance is pivotal for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Fig. 1: US mega-cap stocks market capitalisation as of 26 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Nvidia’s market capitalization stands at US$4.44 trillion as of Tuesday, 26 August, which makes it the largest among the US mega-cap stocks as well as the most valuable publicly listed company in the world. Its market-cap weight on the Nasdaq 100 is 14%, and a weight of 7% on the S&P 500 (see Fig. 1).According to a news report from Reuters dated Tuesday, 26 August, the US option markets are pricing in about a US$260 billion price swing in Invidia’s market value following the release of its second quarter earnings results today.Nvidia’s options implied a movement of around 6% swing in either direction, which is now below the long-term earnings implied movement of 7.7%, averaged over the last 12 quarters.Hence, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 may swing in either direction by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, upon the release of Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings results.Let’s now take a deep dive into the potential share price performance of Nvidia from a technical analysis perspective from a medium-term horizon (1 to 3 months). Fig 2: Nvidia medium-term trend as of 27 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 months) Bullish bias with key medium-term pivotal support at 167.90. A clearance above 189.20 may see the next medium-term resistance come in at 198.10/206.35 (upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel and Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements Since trading sideways in the past four weeks, and a retest on its fresh all-time intraday high of 184.48 on 12 August, the price actions of Nvidia have formed a bullish daily “Hammer” candlestick on 20 August.After the formation of the bullish daily “Hammer” candlestick, the price actions of Nvidia have staged a positive follow-through and rebounded right above its rising 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 7 April 2025 low of 86.62.The daily Chaikin Money Flow indicator has continued to increase steadily since 31 July 2025, which suggests a bullish momentum condition accompanied by a rise in volume.The relative strength ratio chart of Nvidia against the Nasdaq 100 has been trending upwards since 12 May 2025, which indicates a potential outperformance of Nvidia over the Nasdaq 100 in the medium term.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 months) A breakdown below 167.90 damages the medium-term uptrend phase of Nvidia to kickstart a corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 148.77 and 139.25 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 26Markets are still looking for more data: as it could have been expected after the bout of volatility from last Friday, in the middle of a typical, low-volatility and low-volume end-August trading (most of the biggest players take their vacations around now).Particularly after the crazy upside in risk-assets, followed by a lack of more continuation, participants might be leaving markets on pause at least until Thursday.In terms of politics, FED's Lisa Cook, appointed by President Biden in 2022, got fired yesterday evening with the FED Spokesperson appearing to explain their side of things – tldr; nothing too exceptional. FED's Cook had been a relative hawk, Markets should see further reactions depending on who President Trump appoints next.In terms of geopolitics, there hasn't been much advance in Eastern Europe, so Trump started to resume menaces on Russian tariffs.The Financial Times also announced the Security Guarantees for Ukraine which may lead to some announcements regarding to a much-anticipated Zelenskyy-Putin meeting – They were along the guidelines demanded from Putin during the meeting with Trump from the previous Friday, with no direct presence on the battlefield.FX Markets have been dead, same for Equity indices today but Cryptos are having a very decent session. Read More:What’s driving the US Dollar after Powell’s Friday remarks? Dollar Index (DXY) outlookCrypto markets enjoy a bullish session – ETH, BTC and SOL technical outlookCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Low volatility all across Markets except for altcoins, led by ETH (check out our most recent crypto article!)A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 26 – Source: OANDA Labs Very muted session for FX Markets, mostly mean-reverting yesterday's action (CHF leads and USD lags).A look at Economic data releasing in tomorrow's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The calendar for tomorrow's sessions is almost empty of any mid-tier data, so this time I added low tier data.Still, NZD traders should log in to monitor the NZ monthly Inflation data that will guide future outlooks for the Royal Bank of New Zealand. Expectations are for up 0.4% M/M to 2.3% Y/Y. The data is releasing tonight at 21:30.Tomorrow's biggest event for the US will be the 5Y Bond Action releasing at 13:00 which should influence the US Dollar.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have been a nice way to gauge market mood for the session amid nonexistent volatility in FX and unchanged Equity indices.And to be honest, it has not been easy to make much of the rangebound action since last Friday's moves failed to continue.With yesterday's selling in risk assets not being pursued and Cryptos being subject to a decent rebound in today's session, the mood is pretty strong today.A tone of caution could still be valid, with the current rebound not bringing digital assets to their recent highs, but it is still better than continued downside, at least for crypto aficionados.Markets could be awaiting Thursday's US GDP release before the next pump, but the real waiting game might be until September 5th, for the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls figure.Consolidating at relative highs is still far from a bearish sign, as zig-zagging action would imply indecision, not precisely the same as Market fear.Let's see where this takes Ethereum, Bitcoin and Solana through their own multi-timeframe chart analyses. Read More: Markets tread carefully as US indices consolidate after Powell's speechAn overlook on the Crypto Market Crypto Market overview, August 26, 2025 – Source: Finviz The picture is mostly green but it seems that a few altcoins have started to retract from their recent highs – Still, minor coins are leading the upside with Solana up above 4% (chart below) and LINK, EGLD and XRP to name a few are up between 2.5% to 3.5.%Ethereum, Bitcoin and Solana technical analysesEthereum (ETH) 4H Chart Ethereum 4H Chart, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls are holding a decent move, supported by a short-timeframe upward trendline – Current trading is stepping against the 50% fibonacci of yesterday's retracements.For a better long-term outlook, it would be better for this current move to retest the previous highs.If not, the scenarios are either for consolidation (between $4,000 to $4,700 highest probability) or an actual lower retracement to retest the up-trend (which could lead the Top #2 crypto to $3,500).For now, the action is balanced and bulls have the control for the session.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone (most recent rebound)$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extension.Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart Bitcoin 4H Chart, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The most recent correction did print below the Support Zone, marking lows at 108,677, but bulls are reacting to it and trying to push the Main Crypto back upwards.However, the price action is still evolving within a short-term descending channel (see on chart) after a break-retest of the main upward trendline.Overall, the picture is mixed, therefore the most impatient participants will want to look at where the market closes at the end of the week – Staying around or above the 110,000 to $112,000 support zone is the most favorable case for the Crypto market.Below would suggest a continued correction.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone (currently tested)$106,000 Minor support$100,000 Main support at psychological levelResistance Levels:$115,000 to $117,000 Pivot Zone (most recent rejection)Major Resistance $122,000 to $124,500Current all-time high $124,596Solana (SOL) 4H Chart Solana 4H Chart, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Momentum is decent with the 4H RSI going above neutral for the top #3 Coin.The altcoin is leading its colleagues and going towards the $200 level at a confluence with the middle of the higher timeframe upward chanel, with the short-term action evolving in a minor range.Switches to momentum are swift in cryptos and particularly Solana (as other altcoins), so keep an eye at Market reactions when prices reach the high of the minor channel ($215 to $220.Levels of interest for SOL trading:Support Levels:$186 most recent swing lows$180 to $190 Major pivotKey support $160 to $165Resistance Levels:$200 Psychological Level and middle of higher timeframe upward channelcurrent highs $213 and top of Minor rangeCurrent all-time high $295Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6482, down 0.01% on the day.Australian CPI expected to jump to 2.3% The markets are bracing for an acceleration in Australian CPI on Wednesday. The market estimate stands at 2.3% y/y, compared to 1.9% on June which was the lowest level in over three years. The 1.9% gain was below the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% target range and enabled the RBA to lower rates earlier this month.If inflation does rise as expected, it would complicate the central bank's plans to continue lowering rates in order to boost economic growth. The RBA minutes from the August meeting noted that inflation remains a concern with risks to inflation in "both directions". The minutes indicated that members were in agreement that further rate cuts were needed this year but were unclear as to the extent of the easing. Members said that a faster pace of cuts would be appropriate if the labor market softened more quickly than expected or if there were negative developments in the global economy.The minutes said that upcoming rate decisions would be data-dependent. Investors will be keeping a close eye on employment and inflation data, which are the most critical factors for the central bank in determining its rate path.The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates at the September meeting, after holding rates since December 2024. Federal Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole essentially confirmed a September cut and the US dollar responded with sharp losses against the major currencies. The key question is whether the Fed will cut again in December - that decision will be heavily influenced by the employment and inflation reports. AUDUSD 1-Day, August 26, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Trump and FED Battle Heats Up The Asian session saw a shaky start as US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will be removed effective immediately.The immediate reaction saw a gauge of the US dollar retreat as much as 0.3% and gold rose as much as 0.6% to around $3385/oz. The US dollar recovered some losses, and gold gave up some gains after Cook announced she wouldn’t resign. Asian stocks dropped 0.7%, and futures for US and European stock markets also declined.Short-term Treasury yields fell, signaling increased expectations of a Fed rate cut next month. Meanwhile, 30-year yields rose as investors worried that easier monetary policy could lead to higher inflation.President Trump made his announcement after the US Department of Justice said it would investigate Cook. This came from a criminal referral by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, accusing her of possible mortgage fraud.This investigation is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to increase legal pressure on Democratic figures and the central bank. Cook stated that Trump doesn’t have the power to fire her and that she won’t resign. Her lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said they will do whatever is necessary to stop Trump’s “illegal action.”The Asian session also brought the RBA minutes of the August 11-12 meeting. The minutes showed that the central bank of Australia's board expects to lower interest rates further over the coming year to meet its policy objectives, with the pace of decline likely to hinge on economic data.European Open - French Stocks Tumble on Political Jitters French stocks dropped sharply, especially bank stocks, and the country’s bonds also fell on Tuesday as the government faces a growing risk of being removed next month.Three major opposition parties said they won’t support a confidence vote scheduled for September 8, which Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called to push through major budget cuts.France’s CAC40 stock index fell over 2%, after dropping 1.6% late Monday. Big banks like BNP Paribas and Societe Generale saw their shares drop more than 6%.The yield on France’s 10-year government bond rose by 4 basis points to 3.53% early in the day, the highest since March, before settling at 3.50%. (When bond yields rise, their prices fall.)The gap between French and German 10-year bond yields, which shows the extra risk investors see in holding French debt, widened to 79 basis points, the largest since April.Analysts expected political tensions in France to rise in the fall as the government works to gain support for improving the country’s finances. However, Monday’s events were unexpected.If Prime Minister Bayrou loses the confidence vote in the National Assembly, his government will collapse. President Emmanuel Macron could then appoint a new prime minister, ask Bayrou to lead a temporary government, or call for an early election.Looking at major European indexes, the DAX was down as much as 1% in early trade but has since pared some losses trading around 0.54% at the time of writing. The industrials and financial sectors weighed on the index with losses of 1.28% and 1.58% respectively.The FTSE 100 which enjoyed a good run last week with fresh all-time highs is also struggling this morning. The index is down around 0.8% at the time of writing with consumer cyclicals and financial the biggest losers on the day with Standard Chartered PLC down as much as 2.89%.On the FX front, The euro and British pound stayed mostly unchanged against the dollar, trading at $1.1617 and $1.3461, respectively. Other currencies, like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, also saw little movement.The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, remained steady at 98.42 after recovering from an earlier 0.4% drop. Meanwhile, China’s offshore yuan traded at 7.1635 per dollar, near its strongest level in a month, as the stock market continued to rise.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Tuesday after rising nearly 2% the day before, as traders kept an eye on the war in Ukraine and possible disruptions to Russian fuel supplies.Brent crude fell by 51 cents (0.7%) to $68.29 a barrel, after reaching its highest level since early August in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 57 cents (0.9%) to $64.23.Gold prices experienced whipsaw price action in the Asian session but has since steadied around the $3370/oz handle.For more on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Push up towards medium-term range resistance zone as Fed’s independence erodesEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, a quiet day ahead in terms of data. A few cCentral Bank speakers from the ECB, FED and BOE.In the US session we will get the latest consumer confidence numbers before attention will likely turn to the ongoing battle between the FED and President Trump.Geopolitical risks and the discussions between the US/Ukraine/Russia could also impact sentiment if there are any developments. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has been struggling to make a fresh high following the July 10 print at around the 24655 handle.Since then we have seen two attempts to run toward this all-time high met with significant selling pressure resulting in a lower high being formed on July 24 and the most recent on August 15, when price reached 24547.There is a bulls flag pattern in play on the daily chart which thus far has held firm but does bode well for a bullish breakout.However, a deeper correction cannot be ruled out, and a lot of this will rest on sentiment in the days ahead.For now though the index has found support with the 20 and 50-day MAs resting at 24163 and 24059 respectively, with the key psychological 24000 level just below.This makes the 24000-24160 level a critical area of support, which if it holds could signal further upside.Keep an eye on the period-14 RSI which for now is flirting with the neutral 50 level. A break below could be seen as a sign that momentum is shifting from bulls to bears while bounce at this level could embolden bulls and lead to a rally higher once more.DAX Index Daily Chart, August 26. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been at the center of significant volatility over the past few weeks, navigating a softer NFP release at the beginning of the month, a notably stronger PPI report, and a Federal Reserve Chair Powell who was interpreted as dovish despite his measured tone.This led to a drop in the Greenback last Friday, followed by a minor rebound in today's session.On the other hand, the Swiss Franc hasn't pursued its strengthening trend against its major counterparts as the Swiss National Bank got caught in a massive disinflationary trend, forcing their dovish tone.As a reminder, Switzerland has achieved one of the worst tariff deals with the US, with the Swiss products marked up 39% as they arrive in the US, hurting their export-oriented economy.USD/CHF was one of the FX pairs that saw the most consistent decline throughout the start of 2025, dropping by as much as 14.77% from peak to trough.The 2025 and 14-year lows sit at 0.7875.However, since its lows were formed with a double bottom, the pair is now trading back above the key 0.80 psychological level.Current price action is now reflecting indecision from a confluence of technical patterns.We will examine how these patterns are influencing the current price action and identify potential breakout levels for upcoming trading. Read More: Ethereum and cryptocurrency markets send worrying signs despite last Friday's spikeUSDCHF Multi-timeframe technical analysisUSDCHF Daily Chart USDCHF Daily Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls have rebounded sharply from the Friday down-move in the pair, but looking at the past 9 days of price action hasn't led to much.Prices are holding within the Daily pivot zone between 0.80 and 0.81 as the 50-Day MA flattens right in the middle, acting as a consolidation magnet.Also, the 2025 downwards trendline should be acting as immediate resistance but it seems that the mix between current zig-zags in the US Dollars supplemented by a dovish SNB don't help to gain direction.This is why the current Pivot limits should serve as good technical breakout points:Either a break above or below, followed by a consolidation or a retest of the higher/lower bound should see continuation.If buyers and sellers fail to step in, the price action promises to be rangebound even further.Let's try to look closer to see if there's any element in shorter timeframes allowing to tilt the scales.USDCHF 4H Chart USDCHF 4H Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The action from today's session may give the intermediate hand to the Bulls as bears have failed to push the action below the 0.80 psychological handle despite a strong selloff in the US Dollar amid a dovish interpretation of Powell's speech (you can access it right here).However, bulls will have to break both the current 0.8070 highs as intermediate resistance (getting tested as we speak) and closing strongly above 0.81 if they want to regain early 2025 levels.Levels of interest for USDCHF trading:Support Levels:0.80 Immediate Pivot0.7950 bull Pivot0.7875 to 0.79 Main SupportResistance Levels:0.8070 high volume zone within Pivot (getting tested)0.81 Pivot highsMain resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (0.8170 July 31st Highs)USDCHF 1H Chart USDCHF 1H Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking at the 1H timeframe allows us to spot further details within the ongoing consolidation pivot.The lows of the consolidation pivot that preceded today's rebound are located between 0.80 to 0.8020 and the highs are between 0.8090 to 0.81.Buyers have the immediate advantage but will have to face current short-timeframe overbought conditions within a range, tough times amid unchanging fundamentals.Track any breakout to support analysis for upcoming trading. Failure to break concisely above or below the boundaries of the Pivot would reinforce the current range.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.562, down 0.07% on the day. On Friday, the New Zealand dollar shot up 0.82%, its best one-day performance since June.US dollar sinks after Powell's signals a rate cut The US dollar was hammered on Friday, posting sharp losses against all the major currencies, including the New Zealand dollar. This followed Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish speech at a meeting of central bankers' in Jackson Hole.Powell did not explicitly say that the Fed would cut rates next month and noted that inflation remained a risk due to tariffs. He expressed concern about the labor market, saying that "downside risks to employment are rising" and such risks could materialize quickly. The markets focused on Powell's warning about the employment outlook and bumped up expectations that the Fed will cut rates at the September 17 meeting. As well, a second cut before the end of the year is a strong possibility.The Fed has been in a prolonged wait-and-see stance, holding rates since December 2024. With inflation largely under control and the labor market showing wider cracks, the Fed is likely to respond with a rate cut or two before the end of the year.New Zealand retail sales rise to 0.5%New Zealand's retail sales for the second quarter rose by 0.5% q/q, down from 0.8% in Q1 but above the market estimate of 0.2%. Annually, retail sales jumped 2.3%, up sharply from 0.7% in Q1. The positive release indicates that consumers are spending in response to lower interest rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has aggressively chopped rates and has hinted that the easing cycle will continue.NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5860, followed by 0.5854 and 0.58430.5871 and 05877 are the next resistance lines NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, Aug. 25, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 22.Markets had been dawdling around throughout the whole past week, eagerly awaiting for FED Chair Powell's speech – and it did not disappoint.The US Dollar got sent dropping, rate cut expectations for September back up strong, and all Forex currencies and Cryptos are now back in euphory.I strongly invite you to check these two pieces to spot how strong the reactions are after the dovish speech from Powell: Read More:Dow Jones new all-time highs! Market reactions to FED Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speechA detailed look at the FX Market after the Powell speech – Technical levelsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView As seen in our previous articles, every asset class went wild after Powell's speech at the JH Symposium.It seems that the current move might be slightly over-extended when looking at what the FED Chair said. Data will have to be monitored even more closely in the coming period.By the way, I had to mask ETH as it prevented a nice reading of the charts, but the second largest crypto is close to a new all-time high record and up 13% on the day!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 22 – Source: OANDA Labs Looking at the Currency board confirms that the rise in all assets was more about US Dollar selling rather than actual buying – This will be a story to confirm on Monday and promises to be interesting.Maybe an overplay from the pricing of a 25 bps?A look at Economic data releasing in Monday's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. With the Jackson Hole Symposium going all the way to Sunday evening, expect a few big speeches and headlines from Central Bank heads including ECB's Lagarde, Bank of Japan's Ueda, BoE's Bailey and many others.For the rest, NZD traders will have to log in on Sunday evening for the NZ Retail Sales.Monday should be a bit calmer on paper, still stay connected for the FED's Williams speech at 19:15 P.M.Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review Wall Street's main indexes surged on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.The Dow Jones rose 887.83 points (1.99%) to a record high of 45,680.14. The S&P 500 gained 102.14 points (1.61%) to 6,472.31, and the Nasdaq climbed 421.85 points (2.00%) to 21,520.79.Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up, with consumer discretionary stocks jumping nearly 3% and communication services rising 2.3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 3.3%, while major growth stocks also saw gains, led by Tesla, which rose 5.7%.The Russell 2000 Index, which is sensitive to interest rates, surged 3.9%, reaching its highest level this year. Source: LSEG Fed Chair Powell Pivots. September Cut Incoming? Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech represented a marked shift in tone from the Fed’s July minutes earlier this week. The minutes suggested that most FOMC members saw the upside risks to inflation as “more salient” than the downside risks to inflation, but Chair Powell acknowledged today that the balance of risks "appears to be shifting”.Chair Powell's speech highlighted a tricky situation: inflation risks are rising, while employment risks are falling. He explained that when these goals conflict, the Fed's approach is to balance both. He noted that interest rates are now much closer to a neutral level than they were a year ago, and the steady unemployment rate gives the Fed room to carefully consider any policy changes. However, since rates are already high, the changing economic outlook might require adjustments to policy.Powell's tone was more cautious (or "dovish") than expected. He didn’t push back against the idea of a rate cut, keeping his options open. A key point was his reduced concern about inflation caused by tariffs, likely due to signs of a weakening job market. Markets reacted strongly to his comment about "shifting risks may warrant adjusting policy," as many had feared he would take a more aggressive (or "hawkish") stance.As a result:-Short-term bond yields dropped below 3.7%.-The 10-year yield also fell, nearing 4.25%.-The chances of a rate cut in September jumped back to 90%, up from less than 70% before his speech.The dollar index dropped 0.96% to 97.66 after Powell's comments. It had been around 98.7 earlier in the day.The euro rose 1.06% to $1.1728, hitting $1.1742 at one point, its highest since July 28. The dollar weakened 1.08% against the Japanese yen, falling to 146.77.The British pound gained 0.86%, reaching $1.3527. The Australian dollar climbed 1.14% to $0.6492.In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin jumped 4.10%, reaching $117,035.Gold received a much needed shot in the arm rising close to the $3380/oz mark after Fed Chair Powell's speech.Most Read: Markets go wild from the Jackson Hole Symposium – Market wrap for the North American session - August 22The Week Ahead The week ahead will be all talk around a potential Fed Pivot while high impact data from the US and Japan will be in focus.Asia Pacific Markets - BoJ in Focus as Ueda Speaks at Jackson Hole, Tokyo Inflation Next Week From China we will get July's industrial profits data, released on Wednesday, is expected to show ongoing declines. To address issues like deflationary price wars, policies to reduce excessive competition and industrial overcapacity will be important.However, these measures may have side effects and are likely to be implemented slowly. As a result, profits could stay weak throughout the year.Over the weekend we will hear from BoJ Governor Ueda who will be speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Market participants will be hoping for signs of whether a rate hike will be coming anytime soon especially after headline inflation hit an 8 month low.Tokyo's inflation data is highly anticipated, with overall prices expected to slow to 2.6% in August from 2.9% in July, mainly due to lower energy costs, though fresh food prices are still rising. Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) is likely to stay above 3%, giving the Bank of Japan more confidence that underlying inflation is nearing its 2% target.Industrial production is predicted to drop by 1.2% in July, partly reversing June's 2.1% increase, as temporary output boosts from tariff-related demand return to normal. However, retail sales are expected to grow, helped by strong wage increases. The unemployment rate is likely to stay at 2.5%, reflecting a tight job market that could lead to more stable wage growth over time.Euro Area Economic Sentiment and the Feds Preferred Inflation Gauge Eurozone sentiment will be closely monitored next week to see if it matches the positive results of last Thursday's PMI. The strong manufacturing data gave hope that the trade war's impact has been smaller than expected. If the European Commission's data confirms this, it would strengthen the outlook for a better-performing eurozone economy.The Fed's preferred inflation measure is expected to match the 0.3% month-on-month increase seen in core CPI. However, there's a chance it could come in slightly lower. While producer price data was strong, the parts that directly impact core PCE were more mixed. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY).The DXY rallied earlier this week before running into the long-term descending trendline. This coincided with Fed Chair Powell's speech which sent the Dollar Index tumbling.The index has broken below the ascending triangle which was in play from the July low at 96.37.This leaves the index vulnerable to further downside with immediate support now at 96.90.The period-14 RSI also broke back below the 50 neutral level which hints at a shift to bearish momentum once more.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart - August 22, 2025 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Key Levels to Consider:Support96.9096.3695.00Resistance98.6098.9899.57Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Forex Markets are going bonkers since Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole conference.The US Dollar is getting sold off aggressively as the Market interpreted dovish signs for a cut in the September, even in a relatively nuanced speech – Markets didn't need much!The Canadian Dollar is the worst performer (still up against the USD) while the JPY, Euro and Australian Dollar are all up above 1% as we speak.Discover currency charts and levels by performing order, from best to worst. Read More: Dow Jones new all-time highs! Market reactions to FED Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speechAll FX Majors 4H Charts with the immediate key levels in playSome relief for the Yen – USDJPY USDJPY 4H Chart, August 22, 2025, Source: TradingView The Yen is the biggest winner from the speech. Usually, the Japanese currency appreciates from converging interest rates.One of the reasons why the yen had been performing so badly in the past period was because of the pushback in rate cut expectations.The pair was rangebound but is now aggressively heading to the 146.00 Key supportLevels to watch for USDJPY:150.00 Main ResistancePivot at High of May Range from 147.50 to 148 (acting as immediate resistance) and convergence with the 4H MA 50 and 200146.00 Main SupportAUDUSD – A sharp rebound from the prior week selloff AUDUSD 4H Chart, August 22, 2025, Source: TradingView AUDUSD has formed a significant Double bottom and is now moving above its 50-period MA, going towards the 200 MA (0.6512) – Bulls are pushing the pair from the immediate support zone, levels just below:Levels to watch for AUDUSD:0.6580 to 0.66 Main Resistance0.6550 Pivot Zone (acting as mid-term resistance)0.6512 4H MA 200 (immediate resistance0.6480 to 0.65 Immediate SupportThe Euro, always loving US Dollar weakness EURUSD 4H Chart, August 22, 2025, Source: TradingView Things have changed significantly since our most recent report on EUR/USD, with buyers bringing the pair above August highs.Levels to watch for EURUSD:Main resistance 1.18 at 2025 highs (1.1830)1.1750 Intermediate Resistance/Pivot1.1640 4H MA 200 acting as immediate support1.16 Current main SupportThe Swissie regains some strength – USDCHF USDCHF 4H Chart, August 22, 2025, Source: TradingView The Swiss franc had been one of the worst performing currencies since the July rebound in the Greenback, but things are changing today!Levels to watch for USDCHF:0.8050 Main Resistance0.80 Immediate Pivot0.79 Main Support2025 Lows 0.78730The Pound is back on track – GBPUSD GBPUSD 4H Chart, August 22, 2025, Source: TradingView GBPUSD has just invalidated a head and shoulders pattern mentioned in a previous analysis of the pair – now evolving in an upwards channel, it also looks like an inverted Head and shoulders (showing further bullish potential) could be in play.Levels to watch for GBPUSD:Top of channel around 1.37 to 1.37301.36 Main Resistance1.34 current Daily pivot (acted as Support)1.32 Main SupportUSDCAD right back towards the July range USDCAD 4H Chart, August 22, 2025, Source: TradingView USDCAD was moving stubbornly higher but has reversed course in a flash since our Wednesday NA Markets analysis – The North-American currency pair is moving below its 50 period MA and is almost back below the 1.38 handle.Levels to watch for USDCAD:Immediate resistance at Aug Highs 1.387501.38 Major Pivot (immediate Support)1.3740 SupportSafe Trades as the weekend approaches! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.