Week in review - Tariffs and inflation The US Supreme Court struck down the administration's broad global tariffs under an emergency act (IEEPA). However, the administration is pivoting to alternative legal tools.US financial markets reacted positively to the tariff ruling but had to contend with a disappointing 1.4% GDP report and higher-than-expected inflation data (PCE price index up 0.4% MoM).A 5% weekly gain in oil prices, combined with persistent inflation data, has brought inflationary pressures back to the fore.The market's attention shifts to high-stakes corporate earnings especially Nvidia, as the bellwether for the AI boom and crucial economic data, including the Australian Monthly CPI and US Consumer Confidence.When looking back at the week that was, there is no place better to start than the Supreme Court ruling in the United States.In a significant legal blow to the administration, the US Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that President Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to bypass Congress and impose broad global tariffs.While the 6–3 decision effectively strikes down the legal justification for many of the administration's "Liberation Day" and fentanyl-related levies, it does not mean the end of trade restrictions.The ruling specifically targets the use of emergency statutes for taxation, yet leaves intact several other tariffs such as those on steel, aluminum, and certain auto parts that are grounded in different legal frameworks like Section 232 or Section 301.Consequently, while the court has dismantled the specific "emergency" scaffolding the President relied upon, the administration has already signaled it will pivot to alternative statutory tools to keep its wider trade agenda standing.What is the way forward?The Supreme Court’s decision focused strictly on the boundaries of executive power rather than the merits of trade protectionism, meaning the administration's broader tariff objectives remain very much alive. While the previous legal justifications have been stripped away, they are being rapidly replaced by new statutory foundations, ushering in a volatile transition period for the global economy.Businesses now face a period of deep instability as they navigate the unlikely prospect of receiving full refunds for past duties and the high probability of "replacement tariffs" that will restore costs to their previous levels.Ultimately, while the specific legal "scaffolding" has been dismantled, the administration is already rebuilding its trade barriers; regardless of the court's stance on the Constitution, the era of high tariffs appears far from over. Source: ING, Macrobond How did markets react?Read More: Tariffs struck down, major volatility ahead? – North American session Market wrap for February 20US financial markets reacted positively to the Supreme Court's decision on Friday with all three major indexes climbing immediately following the ruling and securing a winning week overall.While investors were encouraged by the legal blow to the administration’s trade barriers, they also had to weigh a disappointing GDP report showing growth slowing to 1.4% alongside higher-than-expected inflation data.Treasury yields moved upward as the loss of tariff revenue sparked concerns over a widening fiscal deficit and increased bond supply.Internationally, the optimism was even more pronounced; Europe’s STOXX 600 index surged to a new all-time high, and gold prices continued their ascent as a weakening dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty fueled demand for safe-haven assets.The continued rise in Gold prices is a nod to the uncertainty which Friday's decision brings despite the optimism. In short, the decision in some ways brings more questions than answers.Inflation back to the foreThe US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in December 2025, following a 0.2% increase in November, the most since February and above market expectations of 0.3%.This coupled with a 5% weekly gain for Oil prices has reignited fears of inflationary pressures returning which would complicate matters for the global economy.In December 2025, the European Central Bank projected that a 14% spike in oil prices would potentially add 0.5 percentage points to eurozone inflation over the long term, while shaving a modest 0.1 percentage points off annual growth.This outlook is particularly sensitive to Europe’s heavy reliance on imported energy, which often causes the Euro to weaken against the Dollar as fuel costs rise. Since those projections were made, oil prices have already climbed by that exact 14% margin, bringing the ECB’s cautionary scenario into reality.Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve expressed concern in its January 2026 meeting minutes about the persistent risk of inflation remaining above target, even suggesting that future interest rate hikes could be necessary.Despite these hawkish signals from central bankers, investors appear relatively unfazed, continuing to price in two rate cuts for the year, a sentiment supported by the fact that domestic gasoline prices remain near multi-year lows, providing a crucial psychological buffer for the markets.If oil prices do continue to rise and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, there may be real risks to the inflationary outlook moving forward.The Week Ahead The week ahead sees the focus shift from macroeconomic policy debates to high-stakes corporate earnings and inflation data.The AI Litmus Test: Nvidia and Software EarningsThe primary catalyst for Wall Street will be Nvidia’s quarterly report. As the bellwether for the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia’s results and guidance will determine if the massive valuations in the semiconductor sector remain justified.Beyond hardware, the spotlight moves to the "software layer" of AI. Results from Salesforce, Snowflake, Intuit, Zoom, and Zscaler will be scrutinized to see if enterprise spending on AI software is finally translating into significant revenue growth. These reports follow a period of market stagnation caused by hawkish Fed signals and rising geopolitical tensions.Central Banks and the "balancing act" DilemmaCentral banks face a difficult balancing act, often described as a choice between fighting persistent inflation and supporting slowing growth.United States: On Wednesday, the CB Consumer Confidence index will be a vital indicator of whether high interest rates and inflation are finally breaking the American consumer’s resilience.Australia: Wednesday also brings the Monthly CPI indicator. If inflation remains above the RBA’s target band, markets may price in a higher probability of a March rate hike.Japan: The market will watch a speech by BoJ’s Takada on Thursday for hints regarding the timing of further policy normalization, alongside Friday's Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.Energy and GeopoliticsRising oil prices (with Brent Crude seeing recent volatility) remain a wildcard. Tensions between the US and Iran have added a risk premium to energy markets, complicating the inflation outlook for central banks. Investors will monitor whether energy costs continue to climb, potentially forcing a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Summary of Key Dates:Feb 24 (Tue): US Factory Orders.Feb 25 (Wed): Nvidia Earnings; AU Monthly CPI; US Consumer Confidence.Feb 26 (Thu): Salesforce & Snowflake Earnings; BoJ Takada Speech.Feb 27 (Fri): Japan Industrial Production; US Jobless Claims.Market Sentiment: Expect a "show me the money" attitude from investors. If AI leaders fail to beat high expectations or if inflation prints hot in Australia and Europe, the current market divergence where the ASX 200 has outperformed lagging US indices, could widen. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical perspective, the US dollar index (DXY) has had an impressive week and rally which finally ran out of steam around the 98.00 handle.Without a daily candle close above the 98.00 handle, the overall bearish trend remains intact despite the strong rally.If the DXY is able to break higher there is a confluence level just above which houses the 100 and 200-day MA and rests around the 98.50 handle.It will be an intriguing week for the US dollar as markets fully digest the Supreme Court tariff decision and the Trump administrations response.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, February 20, 2026 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The U.S. Supreme Court has officially struck down the Trump administration’s global tariffs, ruling that the executive branch exceeded its authority under the IEEPA.For now, the action remains very muted across FX, Stocks, and Crypto Markets, which are all close to unchanged on the session. Only Metals are rallying, but that would mainly reflect weekend risk, if anything, and they actually faded their up-move on the Decision.You can get access to the Full text of the Supreme Court decision right here.Stocks spiked on the announcement, but the move isn't looking like it will sustain, at least for now.Overall, Markets are not reacting much for now because the Decision was largely priced in. What could affect flows going forward is how the Trump Administration responds – they have been prepared for this issue, so what's coming next is still uncharted territory. Dow Jones 15M Chart – Source: TradingView. February 20, 2026 Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals are slowly recovering after their high-paced deleveraging from late January trading.Establishing consolidative ranges and holding tight right around their 2026 opening levels, the Precious Commodities are facing key technical tests in their historic runs.Indeed, after their shocking up-and-down performances in the first two months of the year, it is even more astonishing to see that they are mostly back to where they were before year-end, with Gold leading the pack with more modest 16% gains (check out their yearly performance right here). Metals performance in today's session – Source: Finviz. February 20, 2026 As speculation tones down, up sessions have been much more contained, which bodes well for a more stable price action ahead. Ranging between 2% and 3%, the daily rally in metals changes from the +10% ranges that almost became the new normal throughout January.Futures Traders are now awaiting deliveries, and the COMEX has sent out notices. Concerns regarding the exchange’s low inventory levels are arising, but the Market hasn’t reacted to such news, so take that with a pinch of salt.Overall, Metals are still in a rangebound trajectory since their correction, providing non-directional trading opportunities. However, directional traders will have to wait for a further breakout.What may console Gold and Silver bulls is the heating tone regarding a military intervention in Iran, which would create a spike in Safe-Haven demand. Nevertheless, Gold would be more inclined to rally than the more volatile Silver, and with heavy positioning, any rally could see its potential capped. Still, flight to quality may push Silver higher.We will dive into a Silver multi-timeframe analysis to identify where the next breakout could occur and whether anything tilts the scales in favor of the Commodity. Let's get right into it. Read More:USD/CHF carves a bottom after reaching 14-year lows – FX OutlookOil rallies as War Premium returns: WTI retests end-January $66 highsPoland: easing inflation trends reinforce expectations for a march rate cutSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart Silver Daily Chart, February 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The current price action in Silver is one of hesitant recovery as prices maintain solidly between $70 and $84, a major range.RSI Momentum is still below neutral territory, indicating a higher potential for correction, particularly as the 50-Day Moving Average is coming at resistance.Take a close look to reactions if and when trading reaches that price level ($81.65)4H Chart and Technical Levels Silver 4H Chart, February 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, Bulls are attempting to take the advantage, forming a strong rebound after retesting the 2025 broken bull channel and the action is now breaking the 50-Day MA.If they manage a daily close above the Daily Moving Average (see level above), Silver could see higher chances of an upside breakout. Today's session close and Monday open will be very essential in that aspect.Breaking above $84 points to much higher chances to retest the $100 level.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Attempting a break above 50-Day MA $81.65 (Watch the close)2025 Record Main Resistance $82 to $844H 200-MA $87.76Higher Timeframe Major Resistance $90 to $95Key psychological resistance $100 to $104Support Levels:Key Momentum Pivot $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Range Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)$50 to $54 Major SupportOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.001H Chart Silver 1H Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver is now evolving well within an intraday bull channel which is the indicator to watch for short-term trading.Holding it will be essential to provide a more balanced and sustainable rally ahead.Breaking the channel would confirm the $70 to $84 Range which should then hold for longer.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

January data reinforce expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in MarchIndustrial production declined, with construction down 12.8 percent year on yearWeakness was broad based, affecting most monitored sectorsProducer prices fell by 2.6 percent year on year, deepening deflationWage growth showed early signs of moderationDisinflationary trends support a more dovish monetary policy outlookEUR/PLN is approaching recent multi month highs near 4.2240, with a potential head and shoulders pattern suggesting further upside risk for the pair and continued pressure on the zloty in the medium term.PLN FRA rates indicate that markets expect a sustained easing cycle, with forward pricing pointing to policy rates falling toward 3.5 percent within six months and signaling confidence in further monetary accommodation. CPI and PPI inflation measures and the NBP reference rate, source: Bloomberg Industrial slowdown becomes more visible The latest macroeconomic releases from Poland have further strengthened the case for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the March meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. Recent remarks from National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński and several MPC members, including Gabriela Masłowska, Przemysław Litwiniuk, Ludwik Kotecki and Henryk Wnorowski, had already suggested growing confidence that inflation pressures are receding. The January data now provide tangible evidence supporting that view.Industrial output fell short of expectations and posted a notable decline. The construction sector stood out negatively, contracting by 12.8 percent year on year. Although unusually low temperatures were cited as a partial explanation, weakness was widespread, with 21 out of 34 monitored sectors reporting declines. More broadly, the region has been experiencing a downward trend in the level of industrial production, not merely a moderation in growth rates, following the temporary post pandemic rebound. The latest figures do little to challenge that pattern.Producer price deflation intensifies Producer prices fell by 2.6 percent year on year in January, undershooting market expectations and marking the deepest decline since December 2024. This points to subdued cost pressures in the manufacturing sector and lowers the likelihood of renewed price pass through to consumers in the months ahead. The data reinforce the narrative that disinflationary forces remain firmly in place.Labour market momentum gradually moderates Early signs of cooling are also emerging in the labour market. Monthly wage dynamics slowed slightly, indicating that upward pressure on pay growth may be easing. Together with weak industrial activity and falling producer prices, this strengthens the broader picture of a softening inflation environment.Implications for monetary policy and the zloty Against this backdrop, a March rate cut appears increasingly plausible. Should the central bank move forward with easing, the Polish zloty could remain relatively softer compared with regional currencies. However, relative performance will also depend on policy developments elsewhere.Is a head and shoulders pattern forming on EUR/PLN? The zloty is steadily losing value. EUR/PLN is currently trading around 4.2240, bringing the exchange rate close to the highs recorded in December 2025 as well as January and February 2026. Recently, the upper boundary of the accelerated downward channel has been breached. On the chart, a potential head and shoulders pattern can be identified, which at least in theory signals further upside in the medium term. EUR/PLN currency pair quotes, daily data, source: Tradingview PLN FRA curve signals further monetary easing ahead The chart presents PLN FRA (Forward Rate Agreement) rates, which reflect market expectations for future short term interest rates. The current pricing indicates that investors anticipate further monetary easing in Poland, with forward rates suggesting that policy rates could decline toward the 3.5 percent area within the next six months.Across different FRA tenors, the downward shift in rates points to a broadly shared view that the National Bank of Poland is likely to continue loosening monetary policy. The convergence of shorter and medium term contracts at lower levels suggests that the market expects a series of rate cuts rather than a one off adjustment.Overall, the FRA curve implies that participants see a sustained easing cycle ahead, driven by moderating inflation pressures and softer macroeconomic conditions. This forward pricing reflects growing confidence that the policy stance will become more accommodative over the coming quarters. PLN FRA rates pricing in further monetary easing, source: Bloomberg Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are stuck in a tight range, waiting for geopolitical clouds to dissipateIndexes remain at their highs, and traders are hesitantExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Numerous counteracting factors are preventing much progress in the Stock Markets, which are stuck in a two-day tight consolidation range.On the rough side, geopolitics and positioning are hurting sentiment. Pre-war trading for Equities has never been too bullish. Yes, War is profitable, particularly for US Companies that benefit from their competitive Defense industry while remaining far from the action. The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are quite extensive moats for the United States.The issue stems from the fact that Stocks are susceptible to changes in mood, and such game-changing tensions usually weigh on risk appetite. zoom_out_map War Times and Stock Market performance – Courtesy of FeroFinancial About an hour ago, President Trump did signal further progress in discussions with Iran, but, as we have expressed many times in our views, deception tactics are common in the Art of War, and it would be too easy if things were so straightforward.Positioning is also at some 5-year extremes, which prevents participants from pushing for more, particularly given the current themes and trends.On the bright side, however, Markets are receiving powerful fundamental backdrops from recent data. Just last week, traders welcomed a stronger Non-Farm Payrolls report, confirmed by this morning's lowest Jobless Claims in 5 weeks, pushing back against the weakening trends in the labor Market (206K vs 225K expected). Good news for the economy, but less suitable for those thirsty for Federal Reserve cuts. To help with these cut expectations, however, last Friday's CPI report came in softer than expected, now closer to 2% than 3% for the first time since 2021. Participants will be awaiting tomorrow's Core PCE report before confirming the cooling. Exciting times are coming.This also coincides with 74% of reporting Firms beating their earnings estimates—a very decent backdrop from the US Economy (despite growing imports hurting the GDP outlook).Overall, the dynamics are challenging to deal with. So when they are tough to understand, there are some interesting dynamics to trade. Fade the extremes as long as nothing changes. Take quick profits and losses, and get ready to act if the picture shifts. With volatility comes opportunity. Let's dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Oil rallies as War Premium returns: WTI retests end-January $66 highsMarkets Today: FTSE 100 down 100-odd points, Gold hovers at $5000/oz, AliBaBa, Walmart Earnings and US data aheadChart alert: GBP/USD breaks trendline, is a 470-odd pip decline on the way?Current Session's Stock Heatmap zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:37 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 19, 2026 The picture is more red than mixed overall, with Markets not really responding to the latest announcements from Trump. Defensive Stocks are outperforming, particularly in the HALO stocks, but the current session's Heatmap is mostly unchanged if not red.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – February 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Intraday volatility is dying off in the past few trading days, with triangle formations showing up on the shorter timeframes.Taking a small step back, the DJIA is really just holding between a 49,000 to 49,900 range which could be interesting to play around ahead of the weekend (and as long-as nothing happens in the Middle East).Now below its key Moving Averages, the path of least resistance is poised to the downside for the current session, confirming with the 2H RSI falling below neutral. Look at reactions at the lows of the range.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsImmediate pivot 49,500 (50 and 200 2H MAs)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)Intraday Resistance 50,250ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsMajor Support – 49,000 (Range lows)Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is also containing its action within a tight range, currently located between 24,500 and 25,000.While chances for the range to hold are elevated amid current hesitation, profit-taking could push prices back towards the 24,200 intraday support, particularly as momentum turns bearish on the intraday.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support Levels24,500 to 25,600 Minor SupportFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200February 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Spoose could become the most bearish Index, currently forming a bear channel.While the current selloff is still very contained, sellers taking control could push prices back towards the February lows around 6,730.To confirm, sellers will have to push below the 2H 50-period Moving Average (6,853), acting as immediate support.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 50-MA 6,900 (immediate rejection)Session top 6,911Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 and 2H 50 MA (testing)6,800 Psychological SupportFebruary lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil breaks higher during overnight trading as pressure mounts ahead of the weekendWTI attempts a retest of its January highs with tensions not easingExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Betting on geopolitical events is an odd task in Markets. Without discussing the moral aspect (traders have to make money, or at least try to, no matter what), trading live events come with significant potential risk. Participants build up anxiety, heavy positioning, and costly conviction ahead of uncertain outcomes – this is the War Risk Premium, and it is not a cheap one.Sometimes it pays, as was observed during last Summer with the 12-Day War, which took WTI to $78.43 highs in a matter of a week. However, many times, similarly to what happened already on a few occasions in the current rise, Oil may just shoot higher before giving up in exhaustion as nothing official happens.Will prices tumble again? Who knows. Tensions really are rising, and the military armada amassed in the Middle East is already higher than the one seen in 2003 before the Iraq War, so there is a basis for fear. The Trump Admin also sounded a bit more aggressive in their speeches yesterday. Let's see how it plays out.Being positioned is a good way to gain exposure to potential volatility; however, it remains very tricky. A good entry point is essential, and the most important thing is to make sure you respect your rules and risk to trade for longer. zoom_out_map Odds for a US strike in Iran by end March – Source: Polymarket. February 19, 2026 Polymarket-based odds for a strike before February 28 remain below 30%. Given the amount of insider trading on this platform, the attack may still have time before it happens. Odds for an end-March strike rose accordingly on Tuesday, right after Oil tumbled to $62, and are currently holding around 60%.WTI is trading as if something were to happen this weekend. So overall, that is a lot of speculation, and the timing is tricky to predict. In the meantime, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue. Read More:January FOMC Minutes and Wartime – North American Mid-Week Market updateThe Battle for 155: Hawkish FOMC minutes fuel USD/JPY breakout hopesMarkets Today: FTSE 100 down 100-odd points, Gold hovers at $5000/oz, AliBaBa, Walmart Earnings and US data aheadUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 19, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI just retested its January 29 highs, slightly breaking above, but as long as no candle closes above, at least on the 1H timeframe, it is difficult to assume that a breakout is unrolling.Overall, the Daily picture helps to assess where the action currently stands.Oil remains strongly above its 200-Day Moving Average, which acts as key barometer for the risk-premium and should stay above there (+/- $0.50) for the time being.A progressive build up could test the $67.50 to $68 resistance, the next main stop but that would happen only if anxiety continues to remain high while nothing happens.If an offensive occurs, expect $70 to break swiftly and head between $75 to $80.With no news this weekend, the action could easily retest the 200-Day MA ($62.83) which is the most optimal point of entry to capture the risk-premiumAny daily close below $61 means that traders are unrolling their positions.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 19, 2026. Source: TradingView The immediate action looks very tricky!RSI is at overbought levels, but the profit-taking which just occurred quickly got faded higher – the 4H Candle is forming a bullish Hammer (closing in 2h). Hence, positioning looks to be amassing once again. We will see further details on the 1H timeframe but it seems that if nothing happens, a small retracement looks plausible and could offer decent pullback entries.The Bullish Channel formation points to $69 in the event of progressive rallies.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$66.67 session HighsPast Week Resistance $65.50 to $66.50September 2025 Major resistance $67.50 to $68Psychological Resistance $70$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport Levels1H 50 and 200-Period MA $64.00$65 psychological level micro-supportRange Key Pivot/Support $62.30 to $63.40 (Iran Premium lows and 200-Day MA)4H 200-period MA $61.65May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Support area $58.50 to $591H Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now hanging tight at its end-January Spike levels, but the tricky part is the overbought RSI levels which could easily point to a correction.Aggressive pullback entries could take place at 2 levels:The $65 psychological level would be very aggressive – Bulls are not letting this go and points to higher odds of an immediate intervention (over the weekend)$64 is the less-aggressive but still very strong corrective level that would allow the most anxious traders to be part of the actionIf nothing happens, look for a retest of the key pivot zone $62.00 to $63.40Safe Trades and a successful week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/USD has broken a key ascending trendline, potentially leading to a 470-pip declineThe four-hour chart RSI is oversold, hinting at a short-term rebound before a potential continuation of the downtrend.If the current US Dollar rally wanes, this could see the potential setup face significant headwinds.The bearish setup is invalidated if the daily candle closes above the 1.3700 swing high.GBP/USD has continued to slide thanks in part to the US Dollar resurgence this week as well as renewed hopes of rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE).For more on the fundamentals affecting the British Pound and outllok on the economy after this weeks data, read:Breaking News: UK headline CPI cools, services sector inflation remains sticky. GBP/USD steadyBank of England moves closer to rate cuts. March a real turning point for monetary policy and the PoundScenario 1 Cable has been on a downward trend printing lower highs and lower lows since the peak of 1.38700 printed on January 27, 2026.The pair has staircased its way lower since then and has finally breached the medium-term ascending trendline with a daily candle close yesterday.This sets up a potential drop of as much as 470-odd pips moving forward.GBP/USD Daily Timeframe, February 19, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Dropping down to a four-hour chart, GBP/USD is printing a fresh low while the RSI-period 14 hovers in oversold territory.That is a concern and may hint at a pullback in the near-term before a bearish continuation.Keep an eye on the swing highs around 1.3573 and potentially 1.3651 which lines up with the 100-day MA on the H4 chart.GBP/USD Four-Hour Timeframe, February 19, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Scenario 2 The concern for this setup is the US dollar which is enjoying a renaissance this week which has driven a part of this breakout.Later today markets will focus on US data releases of initial jobless claims and the December trade surplus report.If today’s data confirms a narrower-than-expected deficit for December, it would likely boost growth projections for the fourth quarter of 2025 and provide the US dollar with a short-term lift.Despite this potential for a bounce, the broader outlook for the greenback remains challenged. While the US Dollar Index (DXY) may drift toward the 98.00 level on positive data, a pervasive "sell the rally" sentiment continues to dominate the market. Many market participants expect the currency’s strength to be fleeting, as long-term expectations for Federal Reserve policy and global trade shifts maintain downward pressure on the dollar's overall trajectory.This overarching theme around the US dollar is a major concern and could be the one to scupper a potential deeper selloff in GBP/USD.In order for the bearish setup to be invalidated, a daily candle close above the 1.3700 swing high on the daily chart is needed to put bulls back in control.GBP/USD Daily Timeframe, February 19, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Safe Trades XX.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) has breached $5000/oz, challenging the consensus that its recent rally was a "dead cat bounce."While the long-term trend is bullish, the short-term view is neutral-to-bearish, with a key upside breakout level at 5046.A barrage of US data and geopolitical risk ahead this week could be a key driver for Gold prices.Most Read: Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Battle: The $70k wall and technical breakout hint at further downside. Is $50k a possibility?The price of gold has breached the $5000/oz handle once more. A surprise given the overwhelming consensus by analysts that the recent rally had shown signs of being a ‘dead cat bounce’ given the grind we saw from gold prices.However, Gold has once again grinded its way back above the key $5000/oz handle, with more questions now being asked. Chief among them is whether the precious metal will be able to kick in from here or will we be in for more indecision for the rest of the week?What was behind the recent pullback in Gold prices? There has been a lot of mixed messages as to what the reasons were behind Gold's recent slide.In my view the initial pullback in gold prices was driven by a strengthening US dollar and a shift toward risk-off sentiment across global markets.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, February 18, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView These price swings were further intensified by thin liquidity, as major Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year, making gold more vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts and currency fluctuations.Despite this sensitivity to the dollar and broader market nerves, the recent decline appears to be a temporary correction rather than a long-term trend. As Asian markets reopen and liquidity returns to normal levels, gold appears to have found firmer support.Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and solid underlying fundamentals, any further price dips will likely attract fresh buying interest from investors looking for a safe haven.Looking Ahead: US data, US dollar dynamics and geopolitical risks Looking ahead, US markets will focus on housing data, remarks from Fed officials, GDP figures for Q4 2025, and the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) All of these will have some role to play in Gold's next move as markets remain somewhat cautious given the uncertainties at play.Looking at the fear and greed index and markets are still in fear territory with a score of 43. This is also keeping Gold prices supported, as fear tends to keep market participants interested in safe haven bets. zoom_out_map Source: FinancialJuice Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint,Gold has resumed its long term bullish trajectory but significant challenges remain.The overall long-term structure remains bullish (upward), but the shorter-term chart (H4) shows a neutral-to-bearish tilt as the market consolidates its recent 15% drop from the $5,500 highs.Looking at the four-hour chart below and the range between 5096 and 4760 will be key in the near-term.Looking at the potential for an upside breakout and the swing high at 5046 (printed on February 13) is the first point of contention. A four-hour candle close above this level may open the dorr for a range break beyond the 5096mark and open up a potential 330 odd dollar move to the upside.Further supporting the bullish breakout narrative is the period-14 RSI on the H4 chart which is now above the 50 level, hinting at bullish momentum.Conversely, a move lower here first needs to navigate support at 4908 before the swing low around the 4860 handle comes into focus.Only then will the range low around 4760 become an area of focus.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 18, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks exploded after forming a bottom in yesterday's tradingNevertheless, geopolitical tensions could be emerging soon. Is this a trap?Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Markets are exploding higher in today's action, as was hinted by the rebounding action in Stock Benchmarks – Hope that some saw our previous day analysis to catch the move!The morning bullish action is closely linked to rebounds in Mag 7s that have been performing roughly since the beginning of 2026, and to Financial Equities attempting to shine again after rolling in the deep. zoom_out_map Magnificent 7 Stocks since beginning 2026 – Courtesy of BarChart This shouts dip-buying as investors seek opportunities while overall sentiment cools – Traders are not forgetting the Warren Buffett adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."However, in recent times, it's been tough to assess whether the Market is actually fearful. Yes, the Tech sectors and anything related to AI are seeing bloodshed. However, Indexes are still very near all-time highs, and Asset Managers are still overtly positioned, as expressed in the recent Bank of America Survey. zoom_out_map Asset Managers Sentiment in Equities – Source: Bank of America The earnings season is a stellar one, so that would be a boon for Stocks, but as Markets are forward-looking, it is difficult not to show some skepticism about today's rebound. zoom_out_map Current Earnings Season – Source: FactSet Axios just published a piece that revives fear of an imminent war directed towards the Iranian regime, which keeps repressing its population amid the recent Revolts, where more than 30,000 victims have been reported. To a large extent, war would definitely not help equities race towards new all-time highs.Taking a step back, the Trump Administration is quite aggressive and opportunistic. So if there is an occasion for the US to trample one of its most opposing regimes at a time of weakness, it would be surprising to see nothing happening.As I have been warning for a while now, this is a story to monitor for traders. Hence, traders would need to be careful about upcoming headlines, as the Second warship is expected to reach the Middle East soon. So is today's rebound a bull trap? It could be early to say but this could offer a decent timing for risk-off opportunities. In the meantime, let's dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Battle: The $70k wall and technical breakout hint at further downside. Is $50k a possibility?NZD/USD tumbles after the RBNZ hold – A look at the new Governor Anna BremanUS Dollar Index (DXY) tries to break 2026 downtrend despite 14-Year record bear positioningCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:40 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 18, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow bounced sharply after forming a higher low yesterday.However, the Index wicked at the 49,900 Resistance and is seeing rejection at its 4H 50 MA (49,850). Hence, with the narrative potentially turning to a risk-off, current levels could offer very decent entry levels for bearish positions.Any close above 50,000 would invalidate this thesis.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Session highs and rejection)4H 50-MA 49,850Intraday Resistance 50,250 (rejecting)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsMajor Support – 49,000 (breaking this should lead to further downside)Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now reaching the key 25,000, Nasdaq is at a very interesting technical point.This level acted as resistance after the October 2025 crash and could act similarly if sentiment turns frothy. Any break above 25,250 would void the setup, while a session close below 25,000 would confirm a downturn.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support Levels24,500 to 25,600 Key Support (bearish below)February 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView As mentioned in our previous day analysis, the S&P 500 went to retest its key 4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages and looks to be rejecting them.Reaching a 6,911 high this morning, profit-taking occured right ahead of the 200 MA which gives a first sign of weakness.Rejecting below the Pivot Zone (closing below 6,900 on the session) should confirm the bearish turn. Any break back above 6,920 voids the bearish outlook.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 50-MA 6,900 (immediate rejection)Session top 6,911Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (bearish below)6,800 Psychological Support Overnight lows 6,700 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As 2030 is now much closer than 2020, we are officially entering a new era for Central Banks, and there's a wave of fresh Governors and Presidents taking the lead.Between the Federal Reserve expecting to leave space for the arrival of Kevin Warsh at its head (and he means a lot of change), ECB's Lagarde potentially stepping down before the end of her 2027 term, and CBDCs (Central Bank Cryptos) expected to enter the scene, there will be quite a lot changing for Central Banking in the coming times.And the Royal Bank of New Zealand actually took the lead, with Anna Breman replacing former Governor Hawkesby at the head of the Kiwi Central Bank. She delivered her debut during yesterday's Press Conference, with the RBNZ holding rates at 2.25%.The speech itself wasn't anything revolutionary – the new Governor took a balanced approach to the outlook, with housing and labor both stabilizing after years of struggle. However, inflation is still looking a bit shaky as it starts to tilt in the right direction.Anna Breman struck a cautious, relatively dovish tone in her debut, prioritizing a steady recovery over aggressive tightening. She slightly front-loaded the timing for future hikes (now priced for one towards this year-end). Breman emphasized that the economy remains fragile, effectively balancing stabilizing data with a commitment to maintaining accommodative conditions as the NZ economy still recovers from an awkward period.Since, the Kiwi Dollar has plunged at the lows of the FX board as Participants estimated that the new Governor sounded a bit more dovish than expected – Front-end rates corrected slightly after the meeting.You can access the entire RBNZ statement right here.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of NZD/USD to spot if recent moves provide opportunity for action. Discover:US Dollar Index (DXY) tries to break 2026 downtrend despite 14-Year record bear positioningBitcoin's (BTC/USD) Battle: The $70k wall and technical breakout hint at further downside. Is $50k a possibility?Breaking News: UK headline CPI cools, services sector inflation remains sticky. GBP/USD steadyNZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map NZD/USD Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 18, 2026 The Kiwi Dollar is plunging after a stellar end-2025 rise, when rebounding labor and inflation data left space for the pricing of more immediate change to the policy – which got pushed back in today's RBNZ announcement. NZD/USD is now down about 1% on the session.Looking out the big picture, NZD bulls were not able to catch up to the July 2025 peak and leaves a bleak outlook to the pair: A high-timeframe double top looks to be forming.While it doesn't point to a return towards Liberation Day lows, it is difficult to strike any bullish outlook from the current price action. This comes at a time where the US Dollar could form a rebound on its own.Let's take a closer look to spot levels of interest for the ongoing correction.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map NZD/USD 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 18, 2026 Looking closer, another double top has formed in this early 2026 action, pointing to lower action ahead. Now trading below its 0.60 Pivot Area, bears are now in control.Failing to correct back above the Psychological on the daily adds further chances to retest February lows (0.59285).A more aggressive move lower could test the 4H 200-MA which caught up after the large rally in the pair (0.59150).Any pullback to the 4H 50-period MA (0.60360) could show a decent setup for bear entries.Trading Levels for NZD/USD:Resistance LevelsSeptember 2025 Pivot area 0.60 to 0.601504H 50-MA 0.60360July 2025 Resistance 0.6060 to 0.60702025 High Resistance 0.6120Support Levels0.5930 to 0.5950 (+/- 70 pips) February Lows0.59130 4H 200-MA0.59 (+/- 50 pips) Mini-Support0.5850 December High SupportMain 2025 Support 0.5720 to 0.57501H Chart zoom_out_map NZD/USD 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 18, 2026 With oversold RSI conditions on the 1H Timeframe, traders can expect to see a short-term rebound towards the intraday 0.60150 - 0.60180 Resistance zone which could provide interesting entries.For bearish confirmation, look for a session close below the 0.60 psychological level.Any break back above 0.60510 would put Bulls back in controlSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has rejected at $70,000 multiple times, down ~28% in February.Geopolitical risk, "Clarity Act" stalls, and pressure on corporate treasuries weigh on prices.A confirmed bearish Symmetrical Triangle breakout suggests a move toward $60,000.Most Read: Gold & Precious Metals slide: Iran diplomacy and Lunar New Year drain liquidityBitcoin continues to toil in a landscape of intensifying geopolitical conflict and regulatory hurdles. The world’s leading cryptocurrency is struggling to maintain its footing, currently hovering around the $67,000 to $68,000 mark.Bitcoin has made three attempts to gain acceptance above the $70000 handle since February 5, with each attempt being met by selling pressure.For the month of February, Bitcoin is down around 28% at the time of writing.Bitcoin & Crypto performance, February 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Given the rejections above the $70000 level and the factors below, Is Bitcoin ready for another leg lower toward the $50000 mark?Here are some of the key factors which are currently driving Bitcoin and Crypto market moves: Geopolitical Tension and Risk-Off SentimentThe primary catalyst for the recent decline is a surge in global geopolitical tension. Traditionally viewed by some as "digital gold," Bitcoin has recently behaved more like a high-risk asset. As tensions escalate, investors are retreating from volatile markets in favor of traditional safe havens like the US Dollar and physical gold.This "risk-off" sentiment has triggered liquidations across the board, affecting not just Bitcoin, but Ethereum and major altcoins like XRP.Regulatory Stalls: The "Clarity Act"Adding to the bearish momentum is the renewed stalling of the Clarity Act in Washington.For months, the crypto industry has been banking on this legislative framework to provide the legal certainty needed for broader institutional adoption. The latest delays have deflated hopes for a near-term regulatory breakthrough, leading to a sense of exhaustion among traders who were expecting a "regulatory tailwind" to push prices toward new highs.Corporate Treasuries Under FireThe downturn is putting immense pressure on corporate "Bitcoin Treasuries."Strategy (MicroStrategy): In a bold show of conviction, the company recently "scooped up" another 2,486 BTC at an average price of $67,710. This brings their total holdings to over 717,131 BTC. However, with the current market price dipping below their recent purchase levels, the firm reported substantial operating losses, reflecting the risks of the treasury model.Metaplanet: The Japan-based firm reported a staggering valuation decline of approximately $665 million (102.2 billion Yen) on its holdings, highlighting the volatility that public companies face when anchoring their balance sheets to digital assets.Add to this the growing calls from analysts from major banks which have cautioned that we are likely to "see more pain" before a sustainable recovery begins and the apprehension by market participants becomes partially explained.There is also a rise in Bitcoin ETF redemption's and the recent rotation of capital into Artificial Intelligence (AI) sectors which are contributing to the current liquidity drain.What does the technical picture tell us about Bitcoin's next potential move? Looking at the chart below, price action toward the end of the trend illustrates a Symmetrical Triangle pattern being in play.Pattern BreakdownIn this specific Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart, the pattern is formed by two converging trendlines:The Lower Trendline: A rising support line (black) connecting the higher lows since the major bounce near $60,000.The Upper Trendline: A descending resistance line (implied by the recent lower highs) that is squeezing the price into a narrow range.Key Characteristics Observed:Consolidation: After the sharp drop from $90,000, the market is "coiling," meaning volatility is decreasing as buyers and sellers reach a temporary equilibrium.The Pivot Point: The price has broken below the apex of the triangle and the 50-period SMA (blue line), which is acting as a dynamic pivot or support/resistance zone.The Breakout: In technical analysis, a decisive close below this lower support line would confirm a bearish breakout, suggesting a move toward the next major support level at $65,000 or even $60,000.If the bearish momentum continues and the price stays below the $68288 level, a move lower toward $60000 and potentially $56625 may be on the cards.Counter-Scenario: Should this prove to be a "fakeout" and the price climbs back inside and breaks the upper resistance, the upside targets could be approximately $79971 (near the $80k mark). This would require a break of immediate resistance areas at $68288 and $70000 first.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 18, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are starting the week confused, looking for directionWith no major US data until Friday's PCE, traders will be looking at geopolitics to guide sentimentExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US traders just came back from a long weekend break after yesterday's President's Day celebrations.Last week concluded a bizarre week, with a very positive CPI report not materializing into a full-on rebound for equities. As a matter of fact, the Dow Jones broke back below 50,000; tech stocks are still under heavy pressure, and overall, Stock Markets have been directionless for the past three months.Directionless doesn't mean a Market top, but what stands out from recent weeks' action is that investors will really need a concrete shift in sentiment before Indexes can start heading to new highs again.A recent Bank of America Survey still points to heavy positioning and low cash holdings among Asset Managers (implying that the bullet clips are close to empty). Yet, Indexes remain well within 10% of their all-time highs and have resisted the large waves of outflows in the AI/Tech sectors. zoom_out_map US per Sector Performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView With the current session forming daily Dojis and overall trading unchanged across all US Indexes (except Nasdaq, down a modest 0.30%), the current signal is one of confusion.US rates are not expected to change until at least the May meeting. Participants are still awaiting Kevin Warsh's views, and the Tariff decision (expected to be rejected by the Supreme Court) could significantly affect the current course of action. Holding well despite uncertainty is a sign of relative strength, but it can quickly be overturned by worsening news. Keep a very close eye on new data from the US; geopolitics seems to be stabilizing, but remains a volatility factor. This screams for range-bound action until we learn more. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 17, 2026 Dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Gold & Precious Metals slide: Iran diplomacy and Lunar New Year drain liquidityMarkets Today: Yen rebounds, Pound Sinks on Labour Data, Gold slides 2% as Market Focus Shifts to DiplomacyBreaking News: Canadian CPI eases from 3-month high, USD/CAD extends gainsDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow has now been holding within a tight range for the past 4 sessions which provides traders with clear breakout boundaries.A break and close above the 4H 50-period Moving average (49,775) would confirm a return above the 50,000 and should relaunch prospects for continued all-time highsA break and close below the 200 MA (49,257) however would lead to a retest of the broader range lows around 48,000.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsJanuary highs Key Pivot 49,500 to 49,700 (4H 50 MA)Intraday Resistance 50,250 (rejecting)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support Levels4H 200 MA 49,250Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView It is difficult to remain as bearish on the Nasdaq when it really remains so resilient.Now forming the basis of a double bottom at its key support, and the RSI turning higher, it seems that bears are now getting quite exhausted.The path of least resistance now seems to be at least for a retest of the pivot zone at 25,000 and could extend to its 4H 200-MA (25,400).Bears will want too see a clean break and close below 24,000.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (2H 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support Levels24,500 to 25,600 Key Support (current rebound)February 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has been holding one of the cleanest range seen in ages in Equity benchmarks and is currently standing at its lows, prompting similar views as in the Nasdaq. (I hope some traders caught our early call for rangebound conditions)A test of its 50 and 200 Moving Averages (around 6,920) will come as a final line for bears to turn the consolidation into something materially subject to downward continuation, if not, expect the 6,750 to 7,000 range to hold until traders receive more news.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (Rejecting)Session top 6,996Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support Levels6,920 Session lows and 2H MA 50/200 (key barometer)Pivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (17/02/2026): In today's episode, we TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest UK labour numbers and implications on Bank of England monetary policy, Canadian inflation numbers and the latest on crude oil markets. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Happy Lunar New Year! Many Asian nations and people celebrate the beginning of the year of the Fire Horse, taking many essential commodity Markets off for this week.As detailed in our past day's Oil outlook, China being off can amplify moves in commodity markets, as the Shanghai Futures Exchange (where most Asian trading for metals occurs) is closed for the entire week, leading to thinner markets.After a long US weekend, traders are unloading their risk hedges amid mostly positive communications regarding the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi communicated a potential exchange of documents, which follows the more recent narrative of higher odds of a deal, expressed by Israeli PM Netanyahu on his way back from the White House.One of the key reasons for Metals to rally exponentially at the beginning of 2026 was the sudden pricing in of a potential significant conflict in the Middle East after brutal repressions and tragic death tolls from the Revolts.Combined with the conclusion of a very positive seasonal month for Metals, February came with a cold wind for precious commodity bulls. zoom_out_map Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView. February 17, 2026 While Gold remains on top, Silver and other, more volatile and less safe-haven metals are getting rejected quite starkly. Note that Platinum seems quite resilient above $2,000, so keep an eye on this one.With positioning getting to extremes (as expressed in a recent Bank of America Survey), options amassing for $15,000 - $20,000 prices in Gold (typical of Market tops), and fundamentals not warranting a continuous, clear-cut path to doubling prices, metals could be facing a fragile outlook ahead.Of course, with a second US warship heading to the Middle East, which should arrive in about a week, it will be challenging to say. Geopolitics are all about deception, particularly in the age of information.But in the meantime, with US Rates not expected to change until at least May, dollar positioning at its lowest, and Metals overcrowded, the narrative seems to be turning for Markets, may it be for AI or metals.After a year-long straightforward Debasement Trade, things could suddenly not be so easy.Let's dive right into an in-depth look at Gold as traders prepare for a heavy slate of Macroeconomic data throughout the week. Read More:Markets Today: Yen rebounds, Pound Sinks on Labour Data, Gold slides 2% as Market Focus Shifts to DiplomacySupreme Court tariff decision and key tests ahead – Markets Weekly OutlookWTI holds above $63 amid second round of US-Iran talks – US Oil outlookGold Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 17, 2026 It would be too early to say that the Bullion is entering a full-on bear market. However, signs of a significant momentum cooling are unfolding.XAU is rejecting not only its essential $5,100 resistance but also is accompanied by a descending trendline, having broken its triangle formation to the downside.The Daily RSI is also moving in that direction, looking poised to cross the bearish mid-level soon.Taking a step back, Gold is simply rejecting its upside breakout and reverting to a more stable, continuous bull channel it has followed since 2024, which can provide more sustainable entry levels.Dip-buyers will want to pay close attention to the 50-Day MA ($4,657), which acted as key support throughout the entire bull trend. A rebound there should see continuation. But watch out if prices actually close below on any session.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 17, 2026 We can see further details of the triangle breakdown, confirming the lower momentum in Gold.Still, the pivot zone if coming in as a huge test for what's coming, particularly as the 4H 200-MA acts as its final support ($4,812) – Any 4H close below should lead to at least a retest of the February support $4,400.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$5,100 key Resistance4H 50 MA $5,000Current All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:4H 200-MA $4,812Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500$4,100 Main Channel Support lowsMain Support $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 17, 2026 On the intraday timeframes, Gold is expressing quite some hesitancy, with the RSI and Price Action mean-reverting. An intraday bear channel is now building.The session lows will be acting as key indicator for the coming session. Closing below will first test the 200 4H-MA, while breaking it points to further downside.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Canada’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.3% in January 2026, slightly lower than expected and aligned with the Bank of Canada’s forecasts.The trimmed-mean core rate, a key measure of underlying price pressures dropped to 2.4%, its lowest level since April 2021.While shelter and furniture costs cooled, food prices surged 7.3% and restaurant costs jumped 12.3% as previous tax breaks expiredCanada’s headline inflation rate eased slightly in January 2026, dipping to 2.3% from a three-month high of 2.4% in December. This figure came in just under market expectations and aligned with the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, which predicted inflation hovering near 2.5% before eventually dropping below the 2% target. A significant driver of these year-over-year figures remains the base effects from the GST/HST tax break implemented in January 2025.The cooling of the overall rate was largely propelled by a sharp deepening of transportation deflation, which hit -17% following a nearly 17% plunge in gasoline prices. Additionally, cost pressures moderated in the shelter sector (slowing to 1.7%) and for household operations and furnishings (dropping to 2.5%).In contrast, other sectors saw a notable heating up:Food prices accelerated to 7.3%, driven by the expiration of previous tax breaks.Restaurant prices saw a particularly steep jump, rising by 12.3%.Despite these specific spikes, underlying inflationary pressures appear to be receding. The trimmed-mean core rate, a key metric for the Bank of Canada fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since April 2021 and well below the 2.6% anticipated by analysts. zoom_out_map Source: Statistics Canada Implications for the Bank of Canada Based on the latest data, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is currently in a "wait and see" mode. Todays inflation report of 2.3% reinforces the narrative that the central bank will likely hold interest rates steady at its next meeting on March 18, 2026.The Case for a "Hold" at 2.25%The current policy rate sits at 2.25%. The fact that headline inflation (2.3%) and the trimmed-mean core rate (2.4%) are both trending toward the 2% target gives the Bank breathing room.Alignment with Projections: Since the results were "loosely aligned" with the BoC’s own forecast of 2.5% for early 2026, there is no immediate pressure to hike rates to fight a surprise spike.Core Progress: The drop in the trimmed-mean core rate to its lowest level since April 2021 is a "green flag" for the Bank. It suggests that once the temporary tax-related spikes in food and restaurant prices fade, underlying inflation is very well-contained.Technical Outlook - USD/CAD From a technical standpoint, USD?CAD continues its advance.The resurgence in the US Dollar has helped the greenback gain ground following the significant rally we saw from the CAD between November 25 and January 29.Since then, the US dollar has put in solid gains but is still some way off recovering the November to January selloff.Immediate resistance rests at 1.3700 before the 1.3750 and the 200-day MA at 1.3817 come into focus.A move lower here will need to beat support at 1.3500 before any further downside materializes.USD/CAD Daily Chart, February 17, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.After a volatile stretch, traders buckle for a heavy-slate of US data.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Volatile swings and deleveraging continue Markets are subject to particular waves of volatility in the past weeks, as years of upward trajectories and the recent acceleration are now questioning extreme valuations.The culprit? Artificial Intelligence.What had been a boon for Stocks is now coming back to bite the investor where it hurts, with investors realising that AI won't just be an upside-only catalyst.Productivity gains by AI are now turning into fears of destruction for many firms, industries, and their components – Look at Tech and Softwares, straight-up bleeding since October. zoom_out_map The Tech Sector is bleeding. 3-month Performance – Courtesy of Finviz High investments and Capital Expenditures that were seen as only positive are now being targeted by profit-takers and short-sellers, as investors question how long it will take to materialize into profits.This comes amid times when OpenAI, the founder of ChatGPT, is under heavy scrutiny for its fast-paced cash burning, and it gets even more damaging when OpenAI is pretty much the firm that started this entire AI trend to begin with.In other words, AI won't just allow Markets to shoot higher eternally.Some firms and industries will face pain ahead as the global economy prepares for an existential restructuring.If and when large numbers of firms see their activities stolen by revolutionary technology, it could not only lead to massive layoffs and reduced consumption but also trigger cascades of entire industries unable to function correctly, resulting in lower profits and, in turn, an inability to repay their heavy debt levels.This could quickly turn into a global liquidity and credit crisis – but for now, it's mostly fear: fear of creative destruction, which is for now still lifting global earnings to all-time highs.To put things into perspective, the Dow Jones still reached a 50,000 all-time high just last week, and Nasdaq is still well below 10% to its record, so for now, it's only a turn in narrative – With Stock Indexes maintaining a broadly rangebound picture, it's essential to take a step back and not get too afraid too fast. zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) Daily Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Markets are all about risk, so too little risk could prevent seizing good opportunities.And in any case, volatility is great, not for investors, but for traders who will enjoy more movement.The narrative could also change quite suddenly, particularly after today's soft CPI print (2.4% vs 2.5% expected), which could finally wake the soft-landing hypothesis, especially with Non-Farm Payrolls beating expectations on Wednesday.A harsh reality is settling in, and traders will have to keep that in mind when trading: in the times to come, price action will dominate the narratives, so always look at the bigger picture (and check higher-timeframe charts) to stay ahead of what's to come.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Most of the assets which got beaten down last Friday attempted a rebound in this week's action. The best examples of this are of course Cryptocurrencies and Metals, which suffered heavily last week and are up between 3% to 8% on the week.What also really shifted is the sudden interest in US Treasuries, which could launch a wave of repositioning. Bonds had widely been left out of the everything rally in the past three years, bullied by risk-assets and elevated inflation, so keep a close eye to see if this changes. Discover More:Some CPI morning bullishness – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookIt's an everything rally after the CPI miss – Market ReactionsUS inflation slows, Fed may cut rates more than the market prices inThe Week Ahead – Global Macro is backAsia Pacific Markets – RBNZ Rate Decision and Australian Employment Traders are getting ready for quite a heavy week for APAC trading.Sunday will commence with the Japanese GDP for Q4 where traders will now spot whether the effect of Takaichi's appointment turned into a positive for the Land of the Rising Sun.Looking at how the JPY bounced last week, expect large reactions.Monday will present the RBA Minutes, pretty important for FX traders particularly considering that the Australian Central Bank is the only one back to hiking.The Aussie will also see an important test on Wednesday with its employment figures, essential to track whether last hike was just a one off or the beginning of a new cycle.Tuesday however brings the most important test for APAC traders, with the RBNZ Rate decision. It will be the first press conference for Anna Breman, the new RBNZ Governor.She will also appear on Thursday so make sure to listen to how she communicates for further clues.A reminder that Antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD) have rallied quite severely since the beginning of 2026. They will both face a huge test next week.Europe and UK Markets – Major data for Great Britain Despite some key releases for the Eurozone and Germany (Surveys and German CPI on Tuesday, key speeches and PPI on Friday), participants will keep focus on UK data.Similar to the US last week, they will face a confluence of high-tier releases.Starting Tuesday, Markets await their Employment data, followed by UK inflation data (CPI, PPI and Retail Price Index) before concluding the week with Retail Sales on Friday.The release are all during the overnight session in North America (2:00 A.M. ET), so make sure to keep your risk in check. And of course Euro traders will have to stay aware for Lagarde's speech on Sunday (early) morning.North American Markets – US Core PCE, Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs and Canadian CPI North American traders will also have some work to do next week.Not mentioning the few speeches (keep an eye on Bowman Monday), the week really starts on Tuesday with Canadian CPI.Swap traders are aware that any beat there could significantly add pricing for hikes in Canada for the year to come, particularly after this week's BoC Minutes where it was noted that the current 2.25% rate is on the "Stimulative side".Turning back to the US, FOMC Minutes will be presented on Wednesday, and while they are not expected to be a Market mover, they could provide interesting views on Inflation, particularly considering how this week's CPI release changed the narrative.In any case, traders will have to await for Friday before seeing the release of Major data, with a streak of US releases.The weekly closing session will commence with Core PCE (where Markets await to see if there is any real improvement in the Fed's favorite inflation tracker).Promptly after, US Services and Manufacturing PMIs will be on deck.It has been announced just this morning that the Supreme Court will give the decision regarding Trump's tariffs next Friday. This will be a major market mover. Even after the latest ease in narrative, keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran talks, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Friday 13 Market Wrap zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's session brought quite a shift in the Market, with today's inflation report allowing for struggling Stocks, Cryptos and Metals to rebound.Stocks are however closing unchanged despite the very positive CPI report – This could be a rough sign for bulls.The best outperformers there are of course Ethereum and Bitcoin which are both coming from very far after last week's tumble.With FX remaining fairly muted, the US Dollar will be key to watch next week as traders await a repricing of FOMC cuts in 2026. If it doesn't reach new lows next week, this sends a sign of relative strength for the Greenback, particularly with the upcoming Decision on Tariffs.Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

$60,000 is the key “fault line” for Bitcoin: a sustained break below it could quickly escalate volatility rather than produce a normal correction.Deribit options positioning adds downside pressure: about $1.24B in open interest on $60k puts means dealers may hedge by selling BTC/futures as price approaches that level.Below $60k, cascade risk increases: the 200-week MA near ~$58k, BTC-backed loan liquidations, and leveraged position liquidations can combine into forced selling that accelerates the drop (with $50k highlighted as the next major zone of put interest). $60,000 as the market’s flashpoint levelIn the Bitcoin market, it is becoming increasingly clear that the area around $60,000 serves as both a psychological and technical “front line.” A move below this level could trigger not only a standard correction, but also a sharp rise in volatility driven by the mechanics of derivatives and BTC-collateralized financing. In other words, near $60,000 multiple factors overlap that, if broken to the downside, can turn a price decline into a cascade of forced transactions.Big bets positioned for a drop below $60,000One key source of risk is positioning in the options market. On Deribit, there is a strong concentration of puts at the $60,000 strike, with open interest in these instruments reaching roughly $1.24 billion. This market structure matters not because it “guarantees” a decline, but because as the price approaches $60,000 it can force hedging activity from option writers. As risk rises, put sellers often reduce exposure by selling BTC or futures contracts, increasing selling pressure precisely when the market is most sensitive. zoom_out_map Bitcoin Open Interest by strike price across all expiries, source: Bloomberg Lower technical support: the 200-week moving average around $58,000Just below $60,000 there is an additional reference point for some investors: the 200-week moving average, estimated around $58,000. In practice, this means that once $60,000 is broken, the market may quickly test the next technical support. If demand does not respond fast enough, the very fact of the price “sliding” downward can deepen nervousness and accelerate the move. zoom_out_map Weekly BTC time chart, source: TradingView BTC-collateralized loans: a forced-selling mechanismAnother part of the puzzle is Bitcoin-backed lending. In many financing structures, a drop in price toward specific thresholds triggers automatic actions by the lender—most often the sale of the collateral. This forced selling acts like fuel for declines: as the price falls, additional supply appears not because investors choose to sell, but because of risk-management procedures. Importantly, this mechanism is particularly dangerous when it overlaps with a derivatives market already burdened with heavy positioning.Leverage and liquidations: how a drop can feed on itselfIn a highly leveraged environment, a price decline quickly worsens collateral metrics in investors’ accounts. When margin no longer meets requirements, positions are forcibly closed, generating another wave of selling and boosting volatility. In this way, the market can enter a “self-fulfilling” sell-off. Selling causes the price to fall, and falling prices trigger further liquidations. In the past, similar episodes ended with a rapid unwinding of risk as billions of dollars’ worth of bullish bets were wiped out.Sentiment and scenarios: from a bounce to a move down toward $50,000Recent weeks suggest that the $60,000 level is being genuinely tested: on February 6 Bitcoin dipped into this zone and then bounced, and on Friday in New York it was trading around $67,000, while still notably below its earlier peak. Some market participants emphasize short-term pessimism, visible both in commentary and in hedging structures. In this context, forecast revisions also matter—Standard Chartered lowered its end-2026 target to $100,000, allowing for a drop as low as $50,000 along the way before stabilization. The area around $50,000 is also the next zone of clear put interest. What this puzzle impliesThe $60,000 level is not important solely because it “looks nice” in headlines. Its significance comes from the overlap of several layers of risk: concentrated options positioning, potential hedging activity, threshold levels in BTC-collateralized loans, and the mechanics of leverage and liquidations. If the price remains above $60,000, the market may function relatively stably despite jittery sentiment. But if there is a sustained breakdown below it, there is a risk that selling pressure will not be a one-off impulse, but rather a sequence of events in which successive market segments force additional trades—raising volatility and deepening the price move. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks are attempting a fresh rebound, powered by the soft CPI printMarkets were on quite a rout but are now pushing to recoverExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The price action at the Market open wasn't the prettiest one, but Stock bulls haven't said their last words.After correcting by an average of -0.50%, Equities are rebounding amid widespread bullish contagion, supported by the pricing of a third Fed Cut in 2026. It was surprising to see such a pessimistic reaction after this morning's print, given that inflation is the only data warranting higher rates in the US, which are currently still in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Indeed, it is the softest inflation print in almost five years.Still, the price action isn't so straightforward with Participants rattled by the brutal corrections, deleveraging and repricings from early February.What could rattle investors is that the cooling is not widespread, with a few factors still rising from the impact of tariffs – Transportation services, which affect the entire pricing (with deliveries of goods) rose to their highest since Summer 2023. zoom_out_map Transportation Services Inflation – Courtesy of Zero Hedge, X In that regard, the US Supreme Court announced that it will issue its final decision on the legal status of the infamous Trump Tariffs on February 20, so keep that date on your agenda.Stocks hadn't reacted to yesterday's announcement from Israel's PM Netanyahu that the US would really prefer a deal with Iran, which brought with it a wave of premium-reducing in commodities, with Metals and Energy commodities retracing.Even Cryptos are rebounding in this morning's action, hence the widespread positive sentiment acted as a boon for Equities. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:45 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 13, 2026 Magnificent 7s and Credit Services (plagued by rising delinquencies) are the only laggards of this morning's action, while the rest are sighing in relief of the soft print.Dive into today’s session intraday charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:It's an everything rally after the CPI miss – Market ReactionsUS inflation slows, Fed may cut rates more than the market prices inChart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) potential recovery at 20-day MA support, bulls need to break above 49,940Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA tested its Pivotal 49,000 support in this morning's action, with bulls leaning heavily on the Psychological area for the ongoing rebound.Now testing its intraday Pivot region, any push above this shouldn't see much resistance to regain 50,000 – Watch the 200 Hour MA (49,730).Closing back above 50,000 this week should help sentiment throughout the rest of the month, so keep the level in check.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsJanuary ATH Key Pivot and 200-Hour MA 49,500 to 49,730 (testing)49,900 to 50,000 ResistanceIntraday Resistance 50,250 ATH Resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsCPI Session lows 49,073Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is showing quite a strong rebound in this morning's action, pointing to a break-retest formation – A bullish signal.Nevertheless, bulls will have to push towards the 25,000 Pivot to confirm the bounce, with the action stalling a bit towards the mid-session.A close above the psychological level should help the Tech sector for the weeks to come.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 24,857 – Bulls need to break for a higher push Key Pivot 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (2H 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support Levels24,500 to 25,600 Key Support (morning rebound)February 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is attempting a push above its pivot zone. Any break past 6,900 should easily lead the towards some new all-time highs.Watch sentiment towards the close and Monday's open!S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (Watch the 50H MA at 6,900!)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (Rejecting)Session top 6,996Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsSession bounce 6,789Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Dow pulls back after fresh highs: The Dow Jones hit a new all-time high near 50,335 but has since slipped back toward its 20-day moving average as broader US indices post week-to-date losses, led by renewed weakness in technology stocks.Tech drag, defensives hold firm: The sell-off was driven mainly by the tech sector, with Cisco plunging 12%, while defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities outperformed.Recovery hinges on key levels: Holding above 49,265 support keeps the rebound scenario alive, with a break above 49,940 opening room to retest record highs; failure below support risks a deeper pullback toward the 50-day moving average near 48,900/48,710. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Dow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loom”, published on 13 January 2026.Since our last analysis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to scale a fresh all-time high in February and hit our highlighted resistance of 50,265/50,335.US stock indices are the worst performers so far this week zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Global stock indices week-to-date performances as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The US stock market is on track to end the week on a weaker footing, where all four major US benchmark stock indices have recorded week-to-date losses as of Thursday, 12 February 2026; Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.4%), S&P 500 (-1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (-2.3%), and small-caps Russell 2000 (-2.7%) (see Fig. 1).Yesterday’s opening hours gains at the start of the US session evaporated and transformed into an almost broad-based selling across the board, except for the defensive sectors in the S&P 500 that bucked against the bearish trend; Consumer Staples (+1.4%) and Utilities (1.2%).The main catalyst for the weak performance has been renewed weakness seen in the technology stocks; the S&P 500 Technology sector was the worst performing sector on Thursday (-2.6%), dragged down by Cisco Systems, which plummeted by 12%, its worst single day drop in nearly four years, with its warning that higher memory costs will be adversely affect its profit margins.The short-term technical chart of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) is now showing some signs of stabilization after yesterday’s sell-off.Let's examine the short-term trajectory of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index and its supporting elements.Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Potential recovery at 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 13 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Ratio chart of S&P Banks ETF over S&P 500 ETF as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 49,265 key short-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, and clearance above 49,940 upside trigger level increases the chances of the recovery to retest the current all-time high area of 50,530 printed on 10 February 2026, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 50,695 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).On the flip side, a break below 49,265 invalidates the bullish scenario for a deeper minor corrective decline to extend further towards the next intermediate support at 48,900/48,710 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index has flashed out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region (see Fig. 2).The US financial sector, with a weightage of around 28%, is the largest weighted component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).The ratio chart of the SPDR S&P Bank ETF over the S&P 500 ETF has traded above a key ascending support since 17 November 2025, which suggests the medium-term outperformance of US banks remains intact, in turn, supporting a recovery on the US Wall Street CFD index at this juncture (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian equity markets follow Wall Street lower Asian and European markets were weighed down by a global tech sell-offThe Japanese yen was on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly 15 monthsGold recovered from a low ahead of US CPI data, while oil prices continued their downward trend for a second consecutive weekSwiss annual inflation held steady at 0.1% in January, and consensus forecasts for the upcoming US CPI report suggest a "clean" 0.3% month-on-month rise for headline and core figures.Asian markets pulled back from record peaks on Friday as concerns over thinning profit margins in the technology industry weighed on major players like Apple. This tech-driven retreat prompted investors to pivot toward safe-haven bonds.The downward trend originated on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq Composite fell 2% following a disappointing quarterly report from Cisco Systems. Cisco saw its shares plunge 12% erasing roughly $40 billion in market value after rising memory chip costs caused its adjusted gross margins to miss analyst expectations.The volatility quickly spread to other industry leaders, notably Apple, which experienced a 5% decline. This marked the stock's sharpest one-day drop since April of the previous year, a period defined by market anxiety over President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs.Consequently, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.1% on Friday, though it maintained a 3.7% gain for the week.Similarly, Japan’s Nikkei shed 1.3% despite ending the week up nearly 5%.The slump extended into Greater China, with Chinese blue chips falling 0.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index sliding 2.1%.Amidst the broader market turbulence, a report from the Financial Times suggested a potential shift in trade policy. Citing internal sources, the publication noted that President Trump is considering a reduction in certain steel and aluminum tariffs, offering a potential counterbalance to the prevailing tech-sector gloom.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepSwiss inflation holds steady Switzerland's annual inflation rate held steady in January at 0.1%, matching both December's figure and consensus forecasts.The data revealed a continued deflationary trend across several sectors, with prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, footwear, and household services all remaining in negative territory compared to the previous year. Transport costs saw the most significant contraction, dropping 2% year-on-year.Meanwhile, price increases moderated for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, while costs for education remained flat and the information and communication sector saw its growth stall entirely at 0%.Offsetting these declines were accelerating costs in other categories, most notably housing and energy, which rose to 0.8% from a previous 0.4%.Price growth also gained momentum in the recreation, culture, and miscellaneous goods sectors.Despite these internal shifts, core inflation which strips out the volatile effects of unprocessed food and energy remained consistent at 0.5% for the second consecutive month.On a month-to-month basis, the broader Consumer Price Index edged down 0.1%, a slight dip following a stagnant reading in December.European Session - European shares eye cautious open European stock markets headed toward a tentative opening this Friday as a global sell-off in the technology sector raised fresh doubts about the long-term viability of massive AI investments.These concerns regarding AI-driven disruption extended beyond tech, creating a drag on the logistics, financial, and commercial real estate sectors. Amidst this cautious atmosphere, investors turned their attention to a heavy macroeconomic calendar, which included German wholesale prices, Spanish inflation figures, and a suite of Eurozone data covering GDP, employment, and trade.Despite the underlying tension, premarket futures for the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 remained relatively flat, suggesting a neutral start for the broader indices.The session was further complicated by a wave of corporate earnings, most notably from French beauty giant L'Oreal, which saw its shares tumble approximately 6% in early trading. This decline, marking the company's worst performance since at least October, followed fourth-quarter sales of 11.3 billion euros (roughly $13.4 billion) that narrowly missed analyst targets.The shortfall was primarily attributed to a stagnant recovery in North Asia, the global beauty industry’s second-largest market, where growth failed to meet expectations.Adding to the pressure, Deutsche Bank Research suggested that L'Oreal’s earnings growth is likely to decelerate in the immediate future.On the FX front, the Japanese yen was on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly 15 months on Friday, capping a period of steady gains.The currency’s resurgence became the primary focal point of the foreign exchange market, defying early predictions that a landslide victory for Sanae Takaichi would trigger a deepening sell-off. Instead, the clear electoral mandate appears to have eased concerns regarding fiscal stability and political gridlock, encouraging investors to unwind "short" bets against the yen.By Friday, the yen was trading at 153.08 per dollar, and while it dipped slightly in the final session, it remained poised for a 2.7% weekly advance, its most significant climb since November 2024.This strength was mirrored across other major pairs, with the yen set for a 2.3% weekly jump against the euro and a 2.7% rise against the British pound.In the broader currency market, the euro and sterling saw modest declines, with the euro trading at $1.1863 and the pound easing to $1.3613.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar faced a 0.3% daily dip to $0.7072, though it remained on course for a weekly gain of nearly 0.9%. The Aussie’s recent resilience has been supported by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which recently implemented a rate hike to combat persistent inflation.Overall, the US dollar index stood slightly higher at 97.01 on Friday but was still tracking toward a 0.7% loss for the week as global investors pivoted toward the rebounding yen and other high-yielding assets.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices edged higher on Friday, mounting a recovery from a nearly one-week low as the market shifted its focus to impending US inflation data.This rebound follows a volatile week where a string of robust labor market reports pressured the Federal Reserve to reconsider the timing of potential interest rate cuts, cooling the enthusiasm for non-yielding assets.Spot gold rose 0.6% to reach $4,949.99 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.4% to $4,968.0. Despite this intraday bounce, the metal remains down slightly for the week after a dramatic 3% plunge on Thursday, which saw prices crash through the psychological $5,000 support level amid a broader liquidation triggered by an equities rout.The recovery was mirrored across the precious metals complex, with silver leading the charge by gaining 1.5% to trade at $76.31 per ounce. While silver managed to claw back some of the staggering 11% loss it suffered during Thursday’s sell-off, it is still on track to finish the week over 2% lower.In the PGM sector, spot platinum increased by 0.9% to $2,018.44 per ounce and palladium surged 2.2% to $1,652.31.However, both metals are likely to end the week in negative territory as investors remain cautious, balancing long-term central bank demand against the immediate impact of a stronger US dollar and shifting interest rate expectations.Oil prices continued their downward trend on Friday, positioning benchmarks for a second consecutive weekly loss as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing.Market anxiety regarding a potential conflict between the US and Iran which could have severely disrupted global supplies began to dissipate, pulling prices lower.Brent crude futures edged down to $67.40 per barrel, following a significant 2.7% drop in the previous session, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $62.71.For the week, Brent is on track for a 0.8% decline, with WTI trailing slightly further behind at a 1.1% loss.In addition to shifting geopolitical risks, the market is adjusting to a significant influx of supply from South America. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright reported on Thursday that American-controlled oil sales from Venezuela have already exceeded $1 billion since the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January. Wright projected that these operations are set to generate an additional $5 billion over the coming months as the US rehabilitates Venezuela's energy infrastructure.This surge in anticipated supply, combined with a recent International Energy Agency report forecasting weaker global demand, has created a bearish environment for crude as the trading week concludes.Read More:Get ready for CPI – US Inflation PreviewBreaking News: UK GDP underwhelms with 0.1% growth in Q4, FTSE 100 slips & GBP/USD advancesChart alert: Gold rally faces risk of exhaustion below $5,170Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data with all high impact data already released.The US session looks set to be a bumpy one after yesterday's selloff with inflation data on deck.Today’s US inflation report is expected to have a more muted impact on the market compared to Wednesday's payroll data, as the Federal Reserve’s current stance prioritizes labor market health over price stability.Consensus forecasts suggest a "clean" January print with headline and core CPI both rising 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% annually. Such a result would likely validate the market’s recent hawkish shift in Fed expectations, reinforcing the view that the US dollar is currently undervalued in the short term.While this technical undervaluation suggests a potential upside for the greenback, recent price action indicates that investors are still eager to sell into any dollar rallies, making a sustained recovery difficult.However, the dollar has found some support as a safe-haven asset during the recent volatility in the tech sector. This restoration of its protective status, combined with a patient Federal Reserve, suggests the dollar may remain resilient even if major rallies are capped by persistent bearish sentiment. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.Having printed fresh highs yesterday morning around the 10550 handle the index has seen a notable pullback.For now though, bulls remain firmly in control.Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10387 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.Immediate support rests at 10460 before the swing low at 10387 comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10528 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the daily and all-time highs at 10550.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, February 13, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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