Most Read: US Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4?The Bank of England's committee decided to keep their main interest rate (Bank Rate) at 4%, which is what most people expected. However, the vote was close (5 members for keeping it, 4 members wanted to cut it by a small amount), showing that more people on the committee are leaning towards lowering rates. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) They believe that the worst of inflation is over and prices are starting to slow down. This slowdown is due to their current high rates, slower wage increases, and weaker price growth in services. They also noted that a slow economy and a less tight job market are helping to push inflation down.The committee now thinks the risks of missing their 2% inflation target are more balanced; they are less worried about high inflation sticking around and more worried about the economy being too weak. Still, they emphasized they need to see more proof that this trend will continue.Future rate cuts will happen gradually and will depend entirely on the new economic data that comes in.UK Inflation is Looking Better Optimism that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut interest rates this year is rising, causing UK 10-year bond yields to drop significantly since mid-October. Just a month ago, the market doubted the BoE would cut rates again soon. Now, the view is changing because inflation, currently at 3.8%, appears to have peaked.Even though the full drop won't happen until next year, encouraging signs are appearing: food price inflation is easing more quickly than expected, and service sector inflation is slowing down. This is being helped by private sector wage growth also falling, which is on track to end the year below 4% after starting much higher.This confidence is also boosted by expectations that the upcoming Autumn Budget will be viewed positively by the financial markets.UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed today's BoE cut to inflation forecast.According to the BoE “Progress on disinflation indicates bank rate likely to continue a gradual downward path: "gradual and careful approach" to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint”.On the subject of inflation, Governor Bailey stated “It is encouraging that the inflation peak in September was 0.2 percentage points below our August forecast”. All in all signs appear positive on the Inflation front.There is another inflation print due out on November 19, which could have a major impact on pricing of a BoE rate cut in December, before attention turns to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget.UK Autumn Budget Now in Focus The UK budget will become the main area of focus as the month progresses. Fiscal sustainability remains key and will likely determine the impact the budget speech has on the GBP.If Chancellor Reeves adopts more fiscal tightening the implications could lead to further weakness for the GBP. A budget which delivers tax hikes but pushes up 2026 inflation could potentially boost the GBP while a budget that under-delivers on fiscal sustainability could prompt a severe sell-off in the GBP.Chancellor Reeves really has an unenviable task ahead of her with markets paying close attention.Market Reaction to the BoE Hold Markets saw the GBP weaken in the aftermath of today's rate decision with a 30-40 pip selloff in GBP/USD.However, cable has since reversed this and pushed higher to trade around the 1.3100 handle at the time of writing.A break above the 1.3100 handle and four-hour candle close could embolden bulls and push GBPUSD toward the 1.3250 handle and the 100-day MA which rests around the 1.3270.If cable fails to find acceptance above 1.3100 handle, a retest of the crucial 1.3000 level may be in the offing.GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart, November 6, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 5.The US government shutdown officially became the longest in history today — 36 days and counting — yet markets found some relief in stronger-than-expected private data amid the lack of public releases.The ISM Services PMI hit its highest level since February, and ADP employment came in at 42K vs. 25K expected, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite the political gridlock.Services PMI and ADP beats fuel US stock market return Read More:North American mid-week Market update – Some reversal in 2025 flowsDollar rallies on ADP jobs beat, the 'Goldilocks' era and AI stock sell-offUS Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4? Equities staged a solid rebound after a rough weekly open, but sellers re-emerged late in the session, capping gains and reminding traders that volatility is here to stay.Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s tariffs are now being reviewed by the Supreme Court, injecting another layer of tension into an already fragile market mood.With the December Fed rate cut still about 60% priced in despite Powell's recent hawkish return, elevated volatility looks set to persist.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's flows got right back to the 2025 regular flows: Risk-assets rallying among gold (Cryptos largely overperformed) and the losing combo being US Treasuries and Oil.Despite the better US-China relations and very decent numbers, oversupply from OPEC+ and Russia keep on dragging oil prices lower after every rebound.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 5 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's trading saw low amplitude in Forex movement. Nonetheless, the US stopped its multi-week ascent (which didn't leave much space for other majors).The Japanese yen continues to underperform since PM's Takaichi got appointed, with USD/JPY trading in the 154.00 handle, up 4.56% since beginning October.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Once again, participants won't be able to access the normally weekly Jobless Claims release (the 6th consecutively not released) amid the ongoing shutdown.The FX program is expected to be quite filled with Australian trade data releasing tonight, and overnight's EU retail sales data.The North American session will first welcome the Bank of England Rate decision with the release of the Monetary Policy Report (Very important for the GBP).Throughout the rest of the session, expect a flurry of speakers from the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, the usual heavy FEDspeak and a few from the ECB. zoom_out_map All speeches from Central bank speakers in tomorrow's session Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways RBA pause likely: Hotter-than-expected inflation and a rebound in Australia’s services sector may prompt the RBA to halt its rate-cut cycle in November and December.AUD/USD supported: Renewed rate-differential advantage and easing U.S.–China tensions could lend short-term upside momentum to the Australian dollar.Key levels to watch: AUD/USD remains bullish above 0.6515 support, with resistances at 0.6595 and 0.6630. The Australian dollar has managed to catch a bullish beat last week, reinforced by a US-China trade tension de-escalation narrative ahead of the Trump-Xi in-person meet-up in South Korea on Thursday, 30 November 2025.The AUD/USD rallied by 1.3% from Monday, 27 October, to hit a two-week high of 0.6611 on Wednesday, 29 October, before the Aussie bulls dwindled and gave way to a broad-based US dollar rebound due to Fed Chair Powell’s “lack of conviction” speech on a December rate cut during the ex-post FOMC press conference.So far, all the gains seen from 27 October to 29 October have been wiped out on the AUD/USD ahead of today’s RBA meeting. Let’s now examine the various macro and technical factors that may impact the movement of the AUD/USD.RBA may turn less dovish in November and December zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Australia Q3 2025 core CPI, Sep 2025 monthly CPI & RBA cash rate as of 4 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.After nearly three years of easing price pressures, Australia’s inflation trend appears to be turning higher again. Core CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 from 2.7% in the previous quarter, while the monthly CPI indicator climbed to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August (see Fig. 1).The hotter-than-expected data, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions following last week’s economic accord in South Korea, could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to hit pause on its rate-cut cycle at today's, 4 November, and December monetary policy meetings.Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar may find renewed support as widening rate differentials work in its favour.Growth in Australia’s services sector has picked up zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Australia Manufacturing & Services PMIs as of Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Australia’s services sector is the dominant part of the Australian economy, accounting for close to 60% of annual GDP, which includes key industries such as health, education, and finance.The latest S&P Global Services PMI, a forward-looking gauge of business activity, rose to 53.1 in October 2025 from 52.4 in September, signalling a faster pace of expansion (see Fig. 2).Stronger export demand for services helped offset continued softness in manufacturing. This improvement in the services sector reduces the urgency for further RBA rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may pause easing in the coming months.Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis elements, short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and short-term key levels to watch for AUD/USD.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Potential push up above 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 4 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias above 0.6530/0.6515 key short-term pivotal support (also the gap formed on Monday, 27 October), and a clearance above 0.6560 (also the 50-day moving average) may trigger a short-term push up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.6595 and 0.6620/0.6630 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The recent weakness of the AUD/USD seen on Friday, 31 October, and Monday, 3 November, has managed to find support at the 20-day moving average and the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from the 14 October 2025 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has continued to hover above its ascending trendline support after it hit an oversold reading (below 30) on last Thursday, 30 October.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 0.6515 key short-term support on the AUD/USD invalidates the bullish recovery scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at 0.6475 and 0.6445 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (03/11/2025): In today’s episode, we join Senior Market Analyst for OANDA, Kelvin Wong, and podcast host Jonny Hart to discuss the current risk-on bullish momentum, as seen in Asian equity performance early this week. Otherwise, we discuss recent dollar upside and look ahead to this week's trading. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EU ECB Rate of Deposit Facility (October 2025): 2.00% vs 2.00% expected, meets consensusEU ECB Main Refinancing Operation Rate (October 2025): 2.15% vs 2.15% expected, meets consensus The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged. The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment. The robust labour market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience. However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. Monetary Policy Decisions, European Central Bank (ECB), 30/10/2025 Breaking: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained rates at 2.00% in its October 2025 decision, meeting market expectations.Key takeaway: Maintaining rates for three consecutive meetings, inflation in the eurozone nears the target of 2.00%, unlike in other developed economies. As such, markets don’t expect any change to rates until mid-2026 unless fundamentals change, especially regarding exports, which make up a large share of the EU economy. Markets now look towards the ECB press conference: EU ECB Press Conference, 13:45 GMT Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Falling under 1.32000 yesterday, GBP/USD currently trades 1.3176, down -0.13%.Succumbing to selling pressure, yesterday’s session goes on record as cable’s worst daily performance in thirty-four days.GBP/USD now looks for support both at monthly lows and the 200-day SMA, or will risk a further move to the downside.What’s next for GBP/USD?Let’s discuss.GBP/USD: Key takeaways 30/10/2025 While still up around 5.40% year-to-date, owing mainly to dollar downside as opposed to pound strength, GBP/USD has recently fallen to 5-month lows of 1.31400Later this week, an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assessment is expected to rein in productivity estimates for the UK economy, boding poorly for investor sentiment on the UK economy, weighing harshly on sterling pricingBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has recently acknowledged softening labour conditions and poor economic growth, but will be hard-pressed to cut rates in the upcoming decision, while inflation is nigh on twice the target of 2% Read about Q3 earnings season: U.S. Companies Surprise with Strong Sales ResultsGBP/USD: Cable under tension As an Englishman, I can say that the collective feeling amongst the British public regarding the UK economy currently leaves much to be desired.The highest inflation of any G7 nation, rising unemployment, and, at best, a middling economy.Safe to say, things are not looking too peachy going into Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget next month, which is almost sure to raise taxes in some capacity.Put simply, the current outlook for the UK economy, particularly in terms of public finances, is less than stellar, which is encouraging those to sell sterling in favour of other currencies.Let’s take a look at two headline macroeconomic themes within GBP/USD markets. zoom_out_map British Pound Currency Index (BXY) & US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), D1, TVC, TradingView, 30/10/2025 GBP/USD: Fundamental Analysis 30/10/2025 Markets are nervous of UK fiscal woes: While the public finances of many developed nations are currently somewhat dubious at best, this is particularly true for the United Kingdom, with a multibillion-pound hole that needs to be addressed by the upcoming budget in November.While developments concerning the budget continue to do the media rounds, which will inevitably only increase as November 26th approaches, Rachel Reeves is stuck between a rock and a hard place, between honoring campaign pledges not to raise taxes on working people and VAT while simultaneously needing to find an estimated £30bn to balance spending with tax income.To make matters worse, and coming at an inopportune time for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, an assessment to be released on Friday by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to substantially downgrade UK productivity forecasts, resulting in a further estimate of £20 billion in shortfall.Not to mention: government borrowing also exceeded estimates in the first half of 2025 by £7.2bn as per last week’s OBR commentary.Tying this back to GBP/USD, however, is remarkably simple: the fiscal health of the UK economy appears to be worsening, and investors are collectively demanding a higher level of risk premium to hold sterling-denominated assets.This fundamental downgrade in sterling’s rating when compared to other stores of wealth is what has led, in no small part, to recent GBP/USD downside. The UK economy is at serious risk of stagflation. Granted, the term is often used loosely, but stagflation is a genuine concern for the UK economy. Currently, the Bank of England is faced with a serious ‘catch-22’: Rising unemployment, now at 4.8%, its highest level since July 2021Poor GDP growth, with recent estimates for Q2 at a measly 0.3%Stubborn inflation, at 3.8% YoY in September and, crucially, almost double the 2.0% target Naturally, the top two bullets would support the notion of cutting rates, while stubborn inflation would support hiking, putting Governor Andrew Bailey and his team of decision makers in an inevitable position.While the Bank of England is due to vote on monetary policy on November 6th, most predict their hand will be forced in maintaining rates at 4.00%, owing to recent inflation trends. zoom_out_map UK Interest Rates, investing.com 30/10/2025 By extension, a decision to hold would put further pressure on an already weak UK labour market and economy, which seems to be a conclusion the markets have already come to, with the first possibility of a rate cut expected to be in February 2026 at the time of writing.At least one outcome of the above is the apparent decline in sterling value, with the current situation for the Bank of England enough to spook investors into rethinking their exposure to GBP.GBP/USD: Technical Analysis 30/10/2025GBP/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map GBP/USD, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 30/10/2025 Having traded in range for some time, recent downside could be enough to break consolidation to the downside.Fair to say, recent performance is decisively bearish, with a pin bar forming in yesterday’s session that bears will look to fill today.Now with 5-month lows of 1.31400 and the 200-day SMA, GBP/USD will need to find support or risk a further move down: Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target/Resistance #1 - $1.31403 - Triple bottom lowsPrice target/Resistance #2 - $1.31011 - April highs/structureSupport #1 - $1.32904 - Previous consolidation Read Łukasz’s analysis on US equities in today’s session: U.S. Companies Surprise with Strong Sales Results Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Azure Momentum and the High-Stakes CapEx NarrativeAlphabet (GOOG) is scheduled to report its financial results for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 after the market closes on Wednesday, October 29, 2025.This earnings report is happening while the stock is doing very well, having recently surged near record high prices above $268 and is close to the $270 target price set by several market analysts.The results are highly anticipated because they will give investors a good look at how effective Alphabet's huge spending on infrastructure (CapEx) is proving to be in the worldwide competition for Artificial Intelligence (AI) leadership.What to Expect? Markets generally expect Alphabet to show strong sales growth but believe its profits will be held back by high spending on investments.Analysts predict the company's total sales (revenue) for Q3 2025 will be around $99.75 billion to $99.9 billion. If they can hit $100 billion, it would be a huge symbolic milestone, the first time Alphabet has reached that quarterly revenue level, proving their growth is robust. This forecast suggests sales will increase by about 13.0% to 13.4% compared to last year.However, the profit per share (EPS) is expected to be a more modest $2.28, which is only a 7.1% to 8.0% increase. This gap, lots of new revenue but slower profit growth is the key takeaway. It shows the financial squeeze caused by the company's aggressive spending.The market accepts this trade-off, understanding that Alphabet is temporarily sacrificing higher profits to pay for the massive infrastructure needed to build its future and lead the AI race.It is important to note that the strong momentum from Q2 2025, where Alphabet exceeded expectations ($96.43 billion revenue and $2.31 EPS) , sets a high bar for Q3 performance. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, Created by Zain Vawda Investors will be closely checking two main areas: how well the Google Cloud Platform (GCP) is operating, and how strong the core Google Services (mainly Search) business remains.Cloud Growth and Capacity Problems Google Cloud's performance is crucial for proving that the company's huge spending on AI is worthwhile, with sales expected to jump by about 30%. Although demand is clearly strong, a major risk is a reported "lack of capacity." If Google Cloud fails to hit its target of around $14.7 billion, the market will blame the company's operations, not weak customer demand.Essentially, it means Google isn't building its infrastructure fast enough to handle the existing AI demand. This would raise serious doubts about whether the massive spending program is being managed efficiently to keep up with rivals like Microsoft Azure.Protecting the Search Business The Google Services division, mostly powered by Search ads, is expected to grow by about 10%. Even with this growth, the core search business is under threat from new AI competition like ChatGPT. Other AI tools are partnering with big retailers (like Shopify and Walmart) to let users buy things directly, bypassing Google Search entirely.To counter this, management needs to show that the new AI features in Search (like AI Overviews and AI Mode) are keeping users engaged and successfully maintaining, or even boosting, the revenue generated from commercial searches.The AI Spending Trade-Off The number one concern for market participants is the high cost of leading the AI race. Management previously increased its spending plan for the full year 2025 by $10 billion, bringing the total commitment to an unprecedented $85 billion. This massive investment is needed to pay for specialized AI infrastructure, including advanced servers and data centers. Analysts believe this spending could top $100 billion in 2026.This huge cost is squeezing the company's immediate profits. To satisfy the market, management must do more than just say demand is high; they need to show quantifiable data proving that the new $85 billion investment is quickly making high-value services in Cloud and Search more profitable.If Alphabet fails to show that this huge spending is generating adequate returns on investment (ROI), the stock will likely face strong negative pressure, even if total sales figures look good. The company's large-scale global investments, like the recent $15 billion infrastructure project in India, demonstrate its resolve to compete globally and strengthen Google Cloud's presence in Asia.Potential Implications for Alphabet Share Price Alphabet's stock has rallied so strongly leading up to the earnings report thanks to good AI news and less regulatory pressure, the market is essentially expecting perfect results. This high anticipation means the stock is facing a high-stakes, all-or-nothing event, with a large potential movement of 6% up or down after the announcement.The Good News (Bullish) Scenario: For the stock to jump higher, Alphabet needs to do two things. First, it must hit that symbolic $100 billion revenue goal and confirm that Google Cloud is growing strongly (over 30%). Second, management needs to sound confident that they can keep profits steady in the next quarter (Q4 2025) despite the massive spending (CapEx). Strong details on how efficiently they are using their new AI infrastructure are crucial.The Bad News (Bearish) Scenario: For the stock to fall, they would likely miss the $99.9 billion revenue target, report weak Cloud growth because of capacity problems, or issue a poor profit outlook for Q4 due to uncontrolled spending. Since the stock has climbed so quickly, any disappointment could cause a major drop, confirming fears that the price went up "too far, too fast."Ultimately, the most important part of the report won't be the sales and profit numbers for the quarter they just finished, but the forecast they give for Q4 2025 and 2026, particularly how fast they plan to spend on AI and when that spending will start making money.Alphabet (GOOG) Daily Chart, October 28, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: WTI Oil: Crude rallies above $60 on fresh US sanctions and US million-barrel purchaseThe annual inflation rate in the US rose slightly to 3.0% in September, the highest since January, but was still lower than the 3.1% forecast.What Went Up: The biggest push came from Energy prices, which jumped 2.8% due to higher costs for fuel oil and a smaller drop in gasoline prices compared to August. Prices for new cars also rose slightly faster.What Slowed Down: The rate of price increases slowed for food, used cars/trucks, and transportation services.Shelter costs (rent/housing) stayed steady at 3.6%.The key point for the market was that the annual Core Inflation rate (which excludes food and energy) actually slowed to 3.0% (down from 3.1% in August), surprising markets that expected it to hold steady.Month-over-month, overall consumer prices rose by 0.3%, with gasoline being the largest factor, but this was still slower than the 0.4% rise seen in August. Core inflation for the month also rose slower than expected. zoom_out_map Source: BLS Wall Street Eyes Positive Open As a result of the inflation, US stock indexes were set for a strong opening on Friday. Add to that positive earnings from the tech sector and the stage is set for a solid day ahead.Intel's shares jumped 5.9% before the market opened after the chip company easily beat its profit forecasts, which also lifted rival chip stocks like AMD and Micron. This positive momentum sets a good tone for the coming week, when five of the seven largest tech companies, the "Magnificent Seven," are scheduled to report earnings amid the ongoing excitement over AI.Separately, Procter & Gamble's stock rose 3.5% after it also beat its profit estimates, signaling that consumer demand for everyday products remains healthy.Overall, futures for the major indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all indicated gains, with small-cap stocks also expecting a significant rise.There is some data ahead in the form of PMI and Michigan sentiment data, both of which could stoke further volatility depending on the print.Technical Analysis - Dow Jones Index From a technical standpoint, the Dow index is a whisker away from the October 21 high around 47335.A golden cross pattern is taking place as we speak with the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA which is a signal of bullish momentum.However, given the recent rally, could the Dow experience a pullback before the next leg higher?Support rests at 46677 and 4650 respectively.Dow Jones Index Daily Chart, October 24, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Safe TradesFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Why Record Deliveries Still Mean a Profit Margin SqueezeGBP/USD has fallen around 60 pips since the UK inflation data release this morning. This could be down to the fact that traders added to BoE easing bets, seeing 17bps of cuts by December.The inflation print has brought a December rate cut into play once more as the print comes after wage growth also showed signs of a slowdown last week. However, the BoE decision in December may now rest with the outcome of the UK Autumn budget due in November.UK Inflation Data Opens Door to December Rate Cut The most significant takeaway from the latest UK inflation data is the big drop in food inflation.Officials and the Bank of England (BoE) had grown increasingly concerned throughout the year about rising food prices partly driven by April's tax and minimum wage hikes, fearing that this could fuel consumer expectations and turn the current spike into a more persistent inflation problem. Fortunately, food prices actually dropped in September, pulling the annual rate below 5% and running significantly below the BoE's August forecasts. zoom_out_map Source: ING A similar easing was seen in services inflation, which also dipped below projections, with various measures of "core services," including the closely-watched restaurants and cafés sector, showing a decline.This is particularly reassuring because the BoE had worried that pressure from food inflation could eventually emerge as a slower-moving, more lasting problem in the catering sector, but its annual price rate also thankfully eased in September.I initially predicted an interest rate cut in November, but because the Bank of England (BoE) has been cautious lately, I was forced to reevaluate my position. The market is now much more optimistic about a December cut, pricing a 72% chance of it happening.A December cut is certainly possible, but it will depend on the specifics of the late-November Autumn Budget. Specifically, the Bank will need to see proof that the government plans to significantly tighten spending in 2026, mainly through tax increases, and that these new taxes won't accidentally cause inflation to rise again next year, as some tax hikes did recently.US Dollar Resurgence and US CPI Ahead The US dollar has been on a decent run this week with the Dollar index on course for a retest of the October 9 highs around the 99.57 handle.This has also contributed to the recent fall in GBP/USD.The question now as markets await the highly anticipated US Inflation print due on Friday is whether this is just repositioning ahead of the CPI release.This could be the Dollar rising ahead of the CPI release before falling once the data is out. A very intriguing time for the US Dollar and one which could have wider implications for many currency pairs and asset classes.Friday also brings a host of data from the UK. We have retail sales numbers and S&P PMI data scheduled for release which could impact GBP/USD. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical point of view, GBP/USD on the four-hour chart has returned to a key area of support around the 1.3300 handle.The current four-hour candle is showing signs of a potential move higher but does face some resistance ahead at the 1.3333 and 1.3378 handles respectively.If cable rejects at any of these resistance levels, support at the 1.3250 comes into play before eyes turn to the psychological pivot level around the 1.3000 markGBP/USD Daily Chart, October 22, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold’s sharp correction: XAU/USD plunged over 8% from its all-time high of US$4,381, marking its steepest drop since August 2020.Short-term bullish reversal signs: Technical indicators, including bullish “Hammer” candlestick formations and RSI divergence, signal potential rebound momentum.Medium-term uptrend intact: Gold remains supported by a sustained downtrend in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87%.Key levels to watch: Support sits at US$4,056/4,000; resistance zones at US$4,267, US$4,380, and US$4,424/4,455. Gold (XAU/USD) has experienced a volatile movement in the past three sessions. The precious yellow metal has managed to reverse the 1.7% loss it incurred last Friday, 17 October 2025, and rallied by 2.4% on Monday, 22 October 2025, to print a fresh record high of US$4,381.Thereafter, gold (XAU/USD) recorded a swift decline on Tuesday, 21 October 2025, where it tumbled by 6.3% on an intraday basis, but it pared back some losses to close at US$4,125 with a daily loss of -5.3%, still a significant occurrence as yesterday’s loss was the worst since August 2020.Yesterday’s swift decline is likely due to stop-losses triggered on short-term leveraged long positions on gold (XAU/USD), where it has gained “attraction” after the bullish breakout triggered on 29 August 2025 from the prior 4-month of “Ascending Triangle” range configuration that led to a steep bullish impulsive up move sequences in the recent two months.Interestingly, longer-term technical elements and one key macro factor are still suggesting that the medium-term and major uptrend phases of gold (XAU/USD) remain intact.A lower long-term US real interest rate acts as a tailwind for gold zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 22 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 10-year US Treasury real yield (excluding 10-year breakeven inflation rate) medium-term downtrend remains intact as it remained below its 50-day moving average and 1.87% key medium-term resistance (see Fig. 1).Based on intermarket analysis, a cap on any further rebound in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87% and a break below 1.66% key intermediate support reduces the opportunity costs of holding gold (XAU/USD) as it is a non-income-bearing asset, in turn, creating a further positive feedback loop back into the price actions of gold (XAU/USD).Interestingly, the prior decline in the 10-year US Treasury real yield from 2.05% on 1 August 2025 to 1.79% on 28 August 2025 coincided with gold (XAU/USD)’s bullish breakout from its former 4-month “Ascending Triangle” range configuration in place since April 2025.Let’s now examine the latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), relevant key elements, and key levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspectivePreferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at US$4,056/4,000 key support zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 22 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,056/4,000 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above US$4,203 is likely for the bullish reversal scenario to gain traction for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$4,267, US$4,380 (current all-time high area), and US$4,424/4,455 (see Fig. 2).Key elements Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a swift decline of 8.6% from its current all-time high of US$4,381 printed on Monday, 20 October 2025, to a current intraday low of US$4,004 on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, at the time of writing.The 8% plus rapid decline in the price actions of gold (XAU/USD) has led the hourly RSI momentum indicator of gold to hit an extreme oversold level of 19.61on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, and subsequently, flashed out a bullish divergence condition.The price action of Gold (XAU/USD) has formed an hourly bullish “Hammer” candlestick in today’s Asia session, right after a retest of its rising 20-day moving average. Also, it has formed an impending daily “Hammer” candlestick. These observations suggest a potential capitulation of bearish momentum.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the US$4,056/4,000 key medium-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for gold (XAU/USD), where a medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline may unfold to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,943 and US$3,895/3,864 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US-China trade scare has sent a wave of anxiety across all risk-assets, and digital assets rarely avoid such. Cryptocurrencies got sold off violently at the past week close.It isn't the first time that such flows happen on a Friday late afternoon, but this one was particularly brutal: The Crypto total market cap lost close to $1 trillion in value in about an hour and some altcoins printed down about 70% of their value with cascading liquidations.Since, much of the moves have recovered with conciliatory tones from both US and China, but the overall tone still seems passive/aggressive. zoom_out_map Total Crypto Market Cap, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView One could point to the fact that after marking a new $4.27 trillion record three days prior, the profit-taking had already started a selling wave.Some parties might have been informed of the Trump tweet before the bigger move happened? It would not be the first time – Markets are like that despite regulations trying their best to prevent such practices, but all of this is for now just a theory.Some suspicious flows had been demarcated before the selloff started however... Volumes have been holding pretty low since despite the decent recovery, proving how such movement errode market confidence. We'll look at the charts to see if they provide more details right ahead. zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market, October 16, 2025 – Source: Finviz Cryptos were up small to start the day but have since started to see some small-scale selling with Ethereum hanging right around $4,000. Other risk assets like Stocks are up for now – tracking sentiment (and any sudden change to it) will be key once again for daily trading, and expect the same for the time to come!Let's explore levels for the Crypto Market leaders: BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. Read More: Markets Today: UK GDP Up 0.1% in August, Gold & Oil Advance, FTSE Breaks Below 100-Day MA. Fed Speakers In FocusEUR/USD: Recent euro weakness stalled at 1.1530 key medium-term support with a minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakoutCrypto intraday chart analysisBitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at the chart, one thing stands out: The Friday afternoon wick at $102,000.The move was significant and so rapid that prices just printed at these lows before coming right back higher and closing at $114,000.One thing to notice however is how the June upward trendline has since been broken, with sellers attempting to take control of the price action; an asymmetric double top has formed.Buyers are protecting the $108,000 to $110,000 support, coming into play as we speak.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$108,000 to $110,000 previous ATH support zone (testing)$106,000 mini-support$102,000 Friday afternoon wick$100,000 main support at the psychological levelResistance Levels:Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Current all-time high $126,250$120,000 psychological levelPivot Zone $115,000 to $117,000Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has been left out of the most recent crypto inflows since reaching a new record high of $4,950 in end-August. However, the second largest crypto is still holding the $4,000 level and staying there marks volume at 5-year highs, essential for marking its "value" around elevated levels.Momentum is also stabilizing, as showing in the triangle formation.Looking back, Ethereum really had been struggling throughout the past few years – Keep track of its ETF inflows to spot incoming demand (or lack thereof) from retail investors as more and more venues are created for traditional money.Levels to place on your ETH Charts:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,900 8H MA 200$3,433 Friday lows$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone$4,500 mini-resistance$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsA parenthesis on ETH/BTC zoom_out_map ETH/BTC 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ETH/BTC ratio, a proxy for altcoin appetite has corrected since August 22. Nonetheless, the Friday move and particularly its recovery have marked a decent rebound for bulls. The most positive outcome for the Crypto market would be a break above the corrective channel.On the other hand, the bearish case takes further probability on a channel breakdown.Solana (SOL) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Solana 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana is selling off quite aggressively after retesting the $210 levels post-crash.Still evolving within an ascending channel, the key will be to spot if buyers defend the $185 Support to pursue the higher continuation.The lower bound of the channel is at around $170, after which the price action would be entering a bearish territory.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:$185 Momentum Support (testing)$170 Friday lows$160 August Support$150 Psychological SupportResistance Levels:Pivot Zone $200 to $205Resistance level $218 to $220$235 to $240 mini-resistance and Higher bound of channel$250 to $255 main resistance$290 to $300 all-time high resistance ($295 ATH)Ripple (XRP) 8H Chart zoom_out_map XRP 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView XRP broke the range mentioned in our previous altcoin analysis, providing a less bullish outlook for the 4th largest altcoin – Currently neutral.Nonethless, buyers are defending the $2.20 to $2.30 support and the pace at which the selloff occurs has slowed down: Prices have consolidated above the descending trendline.Levels to keep on your XRP Charts:Support Levels:Key support between $2.20 to $2.30 (immediately testing)$2.00 psychological level$1.60 April 2025 support$1.37 Friday wick$1.30 to $1.40 Resistance Levels:Main Support now Pivot - $2.60 to $2.70$3.00 Major Pivot Zone$3.10 to $3.20 resistancePrevious all-time Highs - $3.39Current ATH resistance around $3.66Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Recently suffering a loss of 2.50% only six days ago, the Dow Jones 30 edges 0.22% in today’s session, erasing losses from Friday’s trading.Trading around ~$46,428, the Dow Jones now looks for support to continue the recent rally, albeit currently lagging behind its US equity counterparts.What’s next? zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (green), S&P 500 (blue) & Nasdaq-100 (yellow) OANDA, TradingView, 16/10/2025 Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Key takeaways 16/10/2025 Suffering the worst loss since April on Friday, the blue-chip heavy Dow Jones is recovering more slowly than the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, as markets look to pare lossesWhile banking earnings topped analyst estimates on Tuesday, forward guidance from JPMorgan & Chase had dampened expectations of growth in Q4, hurting banking stocks and weighing heavily on the price-weighted Dow JonesResponsible in no small part for Friday’s sell-off, a worsening US-China trade war looks set to continue, with Trump accusing China of being “economically hostile” Read more on today’s session: Markets Today: UK GDP Up 0.1% in August, Gold & Oil Advance, FTSE Breaks Below 100-Day MA. Fed Speakers In FocusDow pares losses from Friday, edging higher to $46,428 With US equity trading this week being relatively tame, let’s round up a few macroeconomic themes at play: Trump accuses China of being “economically hostile” over soybean spat: Safe to say I didn’t expect to be writing about soybeans this week, but here we are. With Friday’s sell-off still fresh in the memory, with trade tensions inspiring a risk-off move that seriously hurt US equities, Trump has again renewed a moral offensive on China, with soybean exports his next point of contention. zoom_out_map @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 14/10/2025 While most are unfamiliar with the logistics of US legume exports, Trump’s comments are significant in two ways: They further Trump’s narrative of prioritising domestic industryThey signify a breakdown in relative cordiality between the two biggest world economies As for Dow pricing, with Friday being a case in point, a worsening US-China trade war is likely to hurt US equity pricing, with markets becoming more risk-averse.This holds especially true for US tech stocks, such as NVIDIA, a key Dow constituent. Highly sensitive to US-China trade tension, the semiconductor manufacturer lags behind the Dow in terms of recovery since Friday’s sell-off, trading around $182.65 per share. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (green) & NVIDIA (pink) OANDA/Nasdaq, TradingView, 16/10/2025 Forward guidance from US banking sector to disappoint: Despite the best efforts of stellar Q3, topping almost all analyst predictions, markets were quick to sell US banking stocks following comments from JPMorgan & Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. "My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more. And so everyone should be forewarned at this point " JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, speaking during Q3 earnings call Dimon, known for his rescue of failed investment bank Bear Stearns, warned of ‘cockroaches’ in the private credit sector, following the collapse of subprime automobile lender Tricolor and car part supplier First Brands.While admittedly somewhat niche to broader Dow Jones commentary, the comments cast further shadows on US private credit, of which banks like JPMorgan are exposed.In the case of Goldman Sachs, at #1 in terms of DJIA weighting, recent performance would go some way in explaining the somewhat hampered recovery of the Dow Jones compared to other US equity indexes. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (green) & Nasdaq BANK index (pink), OANDA, TradingView, 16/10/2025 As a personal aside: perhaps the first and last time I’ll use the word ‘cockroaches’ as part of financial market commentary.Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Technical Analysis 16/10/2025 To conclude, let’s break down some technicals:Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 16/10/2025 Let me start by apologising for a cluttered chart - it just so happens that many key levels are close to current price action.With moral obligations out of the way, let me draw your attention to the 14-period RSI, which has been erring on the side of overbought lately.If nothing else, Friday’s sell-off will be eyed by markets as a potential entry point, assuming price finds support at the 20-period SMA.Should price meet resistance and fall, we can also expect some technical buying at the 50 SMA, although, as things stand, a fall to this level is unlikely. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target #1: Previous high: $46,434Price target #2: Previous high: $46,843Support #1: 20-Period SMA: $46,346 Read about the precious metals in today’s session: Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver prices continue to soar to unprecedented highs with questions being asked about the reason for the rally.Well in all honesty there have been a host of reasons cited as a driving force, all of them may be true to some degree. The most popular ones which have been discussed at length include rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the ongoing supply/demand deficit in physical silver, and of course the price of silver being cheap in comparison to Gold. One of the reasons which has really come to the fore recently is the shortage of physical silver which has led to a big premium for physical silver as well. Recent, widely reported incidents have exposed some key factors regarding silver, particularly due to physical shortages that have made the metal difficult to acquire. This is becoming a global problem.This shortage is especially felt in India, the world's biggest consumer, which has seen its imports drop by a significant 42% this year, even as demand from both investors and industrial users (like those making solar panels and electronics) has surged.The problem is amplified globally because most silver is produced as a side product of mining other metals, making it hard to quickly increase supply when demand spikes.As a result, dealers everywhere are struggling to find the metal, and this scarcity is driving up prices in the supply chain. This physical shortage is not limited to India; countries including China, Turkey, and Australia are also currently facing a scarcity of silver. zoom_out_map Source: Crux Investor As the physical silver shortage continues, the amount of money held in silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and futures contracts has surged. Large investment funds are now viewing silver as a "higher beta" version of an inflation hedge, meaning it's more volatile than gold, but offers the chance for much larger gains when the market moves up.This structural shift is driven by the fact that silver offers dual benefits that gold does not.:Monetary Asset: Like gold, it protects against the long-term devaluation of traditional paper money (monetary debasement).Industrial Asset: It acts as a powerful bet on industrial growth and the global "energy transition" theme, as silver is a crucial, irreplaceable material used in fast-growing sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and high-tech electronics.This unique combination makes silver attractive to both traditional commodity investors looking for a hedge and other market participants focused on clean energy trends.Either way, right now these factors have created the perfect cocktail for Silver prices.Technical Analysis - Silver (XAG/USD) From a technical standpoint, Silver has settled into a period of consolidation since the early hours of Wednesday morning.Price is just shy of the recent high print around the 53.62/oz handle with the period-14 RSI above the 50 level. This is a nod to how strong the bullish momentum behind the Silver move is.Similar to Gold, picking a top at this stage appears counterproductive. However, for day traders opportunities may yet present itself.Silver (XAG/USD) H4 Chart, October 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Dropping down to a H1 chart and price has been consolidating in the red/pink block since yesterday.A candle close outside this block could lead to a move in that direction.Obviously the longer price remains in the block the more aggressive the breakout may be.A break to the downside may find support at the 100-day MA resting at 51.84 before the October 14 swing low at 50.59 with the 200-day MA resting below that at the 50.28 handle.A break to the upside may find some resistance at the YTD high at 53.62 before the psychological 55.00 handle comes into focus.Silver (XAG/USD) H1 Chart, October 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on XAG/USD with 64% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are Long means XAG/USD prices could fall in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The run in Silver prices has been nothing short of extraordinary. Since the start of the year, the metal has surged more than 80%, with most of the move unfolding after Powell’s late-August speech at Jackson Hole (+37% in a 44-day span).Having broken its 2011 record highs of $49.81, Silver now trades comfortably above $50, and definitely cementing its seat as one of the most explosive rally in more than a decade.Beyond speculation, Silver’s industrial demand — particularly in photovoltaic panels, EVs and advanced electronics — is driving the squeeze. Supply issues are mounting, with growing fears that the metal’s rarity could lead to some disastrous developments for the precious metal.Traders are increasingly nervous. Some metal specialists like Brian Kuszmar admit they have never witnessed a market this volatile, not even during the infamous 1980s Silver boom. zoom_out_map Brian Kuszmar, metal specialist since 1977 – Source: X – October 15, 2025 The parabolic rise now raises one big question — will something blow from this rally? Read More:What if there was no trend in the US Dollar ? DXY OutlookThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesEUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationSilver (XAG/USD) multi-timeframe analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG) 2-Day Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking out on higher timeframes really mark how strong the rally is.The move is becoming more parabolic as time goes but we haven't seen widespread market panic for now: What can happen in the strongest squeezes is a development of higher-gaps on very thin volumes.Volumes are indeed getting thinner as the rally continues but things are not too out of whack.Up 3% at one point in today's session, some stalling has happened at a test of the $53.71 high timeframe 1.618% Fibonacci-extension (session highs).Reactions don't imply sudden reversals, but it's essential to keep this level in view for reversal/breakout analysis. Let's take a closer look.8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG) 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The price action is slowing around the current highs after yesterday's strong profit-taking bar.For now, a convergence of a lower high forming with the same pattern on the RSI prompts some slowdown in the silver-rush.Keep an eye on the upward trendline that could come into play on a retracement, particularly as it comes close to the $49.81 2011 record that hasn't been retested.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Daily peak $53.71$52 to $54 current ATH resistancePotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$48 to $49 2011 High Pivot$43 to $44 higher timeframe support$39.50 to $40 higher tf momentum pivot zone2012 Highs Support around $37.501H Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG) 1H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the lower high formation, the price action is still consolidating close to the hourly resistance – This marks bull resilience.Keep an eye on the 50-H MA, currently at $52.12. An hourly close below would confirm a retracement to at least the previous ATH level at $49.80.However, a daily close above would maintain the upward trajectory.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EUR/JPY printed a hammer candlestick yesterday just above a key support level hinting at a potential bullish continuation. The bullish daily candle close also came after three successive days in the red but today has seen price action fail to build on yesterday's momentum.EUR/JPY has pushed lower testing the lows printed yesterday. What does the pair have in store for market participants in the coming days? Let us take a look.Japanese Yen: Geopolitical Safety Bid vs. Domestic Instability The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently getting stronger, but this strength is based on fear and is likely to be temporary.The yen's recent gains is likely because market participants are scared by the rising trade tensions between the US and China, which now includes new shipping fees and tariff threats. This global "risk-off" mood, which is also pushing gold prices to records, makes investors put money into the yen because it's traditionally considered a safe-haven.However, this rise is unstable due to problems in Japan. The currency's gains are limited by political uncertainty following the collapse of the ruling party's coalition. More importantly, the likely new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has in the past indicated she may interfere with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to potentially hike interest rates.Market participants think this political interference will prevent the BOJ from raising rates which is what the yen needs to get stronger. We have already seen rate hike expectations take a significant hit following the election, based on the latest LSEG data.These developments are weighing on the Yen and may do so over the medium-term, hinting at potential gains for the Euro.Political Instability Affecting the Euro The euro’s path right now seems stuck because the Eurozone looks shaky.France, for example, saw its prime minister step down, and the country is wrestling with the biggest budget deficit any Euro‑area nation has had in years. That kind of political mess may mean higher risk for investors.Because of that the spread between French OATs and German Bunds has started to widen. In other words, lenders ask for a bigger premium to hold French debt. The market reads this as a sign that the whole bloc could be under pressure. So the euro’s ability to ride out outside shocks looks weaker, which may push the EUR/JPY pair lower.Looking Ahead - Beyond the Data Over the next ten days or so we have a host of data releases which could stoke volatility in EURJPY. However, many of these data releases will likely lead to short-term moves.The political developments in France and Japan may have a bigger impact on the overall direction of the pair, especially regarding BoJ policy. Keep an eye out for any major announcement in that regard in the coming days. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - EUR/JPY From a technical point of view, EUR/JPY is resting above a key support level which was the recent swing high around the 175.00 handle.If this level holds there is every chance that EUR/JPY may revisit the YTD high from October 9, resting at 177.92.A break of that handle could open up a run toward the psychological 180.00 handle and beyond.A break of support at the 175.00 handle may open up a deeper retracement with a key level resting at 173.89 before the long-term ascending trendline and the 100-day MA which rests at 171.32 comes into focus.EUR/JPY Daily Chart, October 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Traders are obsessed with trends.Yet history shows that markets only trend about 30% of the time — the remaining 70% is spent consolidating sideways. This is valid for almost every asset class since the dawn of time.But consolidation don't necessary translates to frustrating, choppy action.In 2025, the US Dollar has been at the center of global debate.After months of weakness driven by tariff fears, slower US growth, and fiscal uncertainty, a bottom seems to have formed since July — confirmed by the pre-FOMC retest in mid-September.But bottom doesn’t always mean reversal.The much-discussed de-dollarization trend, for now, looks overstated.Despite with less conviction than before, the world still largely trades in USD.Instead of a sharp recovery, the greenback appears stuck in a large range as traders await new catalysts — whether from tariff policy, an unexpected change to the Fed's stance, or new global economic trends.This could have important implications for FX markets in all currencies.Let's take a close look at the Dollar Index (DXY) to spot what the range looks like and its key levels of interest. Read More:Markets Today: China CPI Struggles, Gold Breached $4200/oz & FTSE 100 Retreats. US Earnings & Central Bank Speakers AheadThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowDollar Index mulit-timeframe analysis and levelsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index recently broke the 99.00 handle, having done so for the first time since end-July.However, with the ongoing uncertainty in markets, it seems that participants are not rushing to bid the greenback at its highs.Reacting to a key technical resistance right around 99.50, sellers have appeared to correct the pair slightly which decreases the technical outlook for a sudden breakout.Looking further out, the range is taking place between 97.00 to 100.00 with some +/- 500 pip precision.USD/CAD is trading right around 1.40, USD/JPY rejected its higher levels and the Swissie is proving resilient around 0.80.4H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The DXY is reacting particularly well to overbought and oversold levels in the RSI as of late, and the pattern seems to repeat through different timeframes, a sign confirming the rangebound action further.The 4H MA 50 (98.81) is still acting as support around the current 98.50 zone pivot restraining the selloff – Any breach below would confirm a re-entry in the range.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone (with 4H MA 50)98.00 Mini-SupportAugust Range support 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:Resistance 99.25 to 99.50Thursday Oct 9 highs 99.56100.00 Main resistance zone1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 1H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer, small mean-reversion buying is occuring at the 98.60 hourly support but with the RSI approaching neutral, reactions will be essential to monitor.Spot through the chart the ongoing mini-range between 98.60 and 99.50: Any break and close above/below should see continuation.If rangebound conditions persist, attempt to spot how this could contain the price action in other FX pairs in the waiting of more fundamental catalysts.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Published overnight, the latest UK labor market data has raised several red flags for the economy, signaling a possible shift in the broader macro outlook.Persistent inflation pressures constrain the Bank of England’s rate-cut path, leaving the BoE with the second-highest policy rate among OECD economies, just behind the Federal Reserve at 4%.(FYI Fed Chair Powell will be speaking here for those interested) Bank of England rate odds – October 14, 2025 – Source: LSEG If everything stays as it is, it would support the GBP (and has done so for the first half of 2025), but some challenges are appearing ahead.Earlier in the year, the pound’s strength was supported by solid employment and wage growth. However, the long-term effects of Brexit—notably on food inflation—are weighing on household spending, with a UK resilience now looking increasingly fragile.The latest jobs report showed slower pay growth and a weaker jobs market, reigniting stagflation concerns. The BoE now faces a dilemma: cutting rates risks fueling inflation, while holding steady could deepen the slowdown in employment and growth.This uncertainty is pressuring the pound.Let’s take a closer look at the technical levels and technical setups for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY to see how that translates to the charts Read More:WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowGBP/USD 8H Chart and levels GBP/USD 8H Chart – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Pound had fallen to new bi-monthly lows after the labor report but some contradicting price action is appearing ahead.A double bottom has show its face with some small bullish divergence. In the context of the ongoing broad US dollar selloff that started this morning, it will be interesting to see who wins the tug-of-weakness between the two.Now just crossing back above the 1.33 psychological level, back 600 pips from the overnight lows, there are two levels to keep you eyes on: To the upside, the 1.3350 to 1.3360 pre-data zone that comes at a confluence with the channel's upper bound. A break above could relaunch a more bullish GBP demand.A retest of the 1.3248 to 1.3260 daily lows would mark another sign of weakness for the pound: Watch for a break if traders bring GBP/USD back there again.In the current contradicting context, some rangebound conditions appear overall.Levels of interest for GBP/USD trading:Resistance Levels1.34 Support Zone now key pivot1.3350 to 1.3360 daily highs and channel upper boundPivot now resistance 1.3450 to 1.34650Main Resistance zone around 1.35Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.3260-1.331.32486 overnight lowsS2 1.3170 - 1.318501.3140 August 1 lowsGBP/JPY 8H Chart and levels GBP/JPY 8H Chart – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView In our most recent (now a bit out-dated) GBP/JPY analysis, we explored how the 200.00 level was defended by sellers which they had used as resistance to sell the pair.However, fundamentals changed quite largely for the yen throughout the beginning of August, particularly as it comes to Japanese politics: The newly elected LDP leader (governing party in Japan) has scared markets on a bad fiscal outlook which quickly undone any yen strength.This was a goldmine for GBP/JPY bulls. However, with the current state of markets, the balance seems to be tilting yet again.Growth sentiment is getting highly affected by the US-China trade tensions and this helps the safe-haven yen.As expected for the most volatile FX pair, there has been some intense swings in that period – Looking at the current course of action, the 8H momentum is hanging around neutral.Traders may look at the downward trendline to spot where flows can head next, with the 201.27 level acting as a key level to observe for upcoming action.Levels of interest for GBP/JPY trading:Support Levels:201.27 pre-Bank of Japan highs and overnight lows200.00 psychological levelMain Pivot (previously resistance) 199.00 to 200.00Intermediate Support 195.00 to 196.85Resistance Levels:July 2024 downward pivot 203.00Downward trendline at 202.95Post-Election highs 205.33208.120 July 2024 highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A degrading sentiment took a pause yesterday as participants digested Trump’s remarks over a prolonged North American trading weekend , which initially signaled a possible de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China. However, optimism looks short-lived.China reiterated its stance through multiple official channels — including its Commerce Ministry and state media — emphasizing its readiness to respond firmly to any tariff actions which comes after an initial Friday comment from Donald Trump in case you missed the story. Read More: US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now This is even leading to the EU and US looking to partner up again to fight the Chinese aggressive policy.Adding pressure, US ships began paying duties at Chinese ports today, a measure long anticipated but now officially in effect. This development has weighed heavily on global trade sentiment, extending the downtrend in Oil prices.With easing Middle East tensions and steady Russian supply to fund its war in Ukraine, Oil fundamentals remain pointed to the downside except for the advent any black swan event.WTI has now fallen below $60, and has been holding below the threshold since Trump's original post.Let’s dive into Oil spot charts to see whether this decline is nearing exhaustion — or just beginning. Read More: Markets Today: UK Wage Growth Hits 3-Year Lows, Gold Retreats from Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes Gains. US Earnings Season AheadJPMorgan (JPM) bullish reversal from 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loomWTI Daily Chart US Oil Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView This year has seen many factors leading to downward revised global economic performance. The most evident one is the Trump tariffs which added a widespread angst among economists, especially as they get imposed about a year after the conclusion of the fastest hike cycles, which aimed to dampen the fast growing economies from 2022 and 2023.Even a few years after, economic deceleration still imposes its dominance on oil demand, particularly when looking at the slowing labor growth in OECD nations which generate a lot of demand.For example, the UK just published weak data as seen in the overnight data report (more on this coming on MarketPulse today) and an also slowing US jobs market.This combined with Chinese deflation doesn't help for bulls prospects.There is some nuance however, with Chinese trade data coming in way better than expected and airlines projecting a solid outlook ahead.The daily chart shows reactions at the lows of the daily downtrend after the overnight 1.50% drop.The RSI is approaching the oversold territory but isn't quite there. Let's take a closer look.WTI 4H Chart and levels US Oil 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since the end of September, Oil has firmly held its daily descending channel and even formed a steeper hourly trend.This led to the overnight $57.75 lows, levels not seen since May 2025 and the Liberation Day troughs.There has been some small mean-reversion however as prices reach a confluence bottom of the daily & hourly channels, combined with a bullish RSI divergence and an end to a measured-move.Traders will have to look at the daily lows: any attempt to make new lows and any 4H close below would maintain the bearish trend and push towards the $55 2025 support zone.Any rebound from here may point to the 4H 50-MA at $61.15 , at a confluence with the upper bound of Hourly Channel.Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$59 to $60 2021 and 2025 Main Support now PivotMA 50 and upper bound of Hourly Channel $61.15 to $61.30September range Support now resistance $62 to $63September resistance $65 to $67Support LevelsOvernight lows $57.76$55 to $56.50 2025 Support2019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.5Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It is a US bank holiday today for Columbus Day (with Canada and Japan also off) but markets that are open were still subject to quite the volatile weekly open.The final quarter volatility is never something to beckon with, particularly after an already volatile beginning of 2025. At the close of last week, markets were rocked by a massive trade war scare initiated by some more aggressive Chinese stance. VIX - Equity (Options) Volatility with Heikin-Ashi candles – October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Beijing put up the pressure regarding its rare earth exports, announcing new export controls on rare earth elements and tightening its grip on critical materials essential for semiconductors, defense, and electric vehicles. For now, China has a considerable advantage in this market and is expanding its dominance through key ties with African nations (which have many rare earth resources), for example.Following this aggressive tightening, Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Friday, posting a statement that immediately triggered a significant wave of selling across risk assets. Reactions in Cryptocurrencies Friday reactions to the Trump post – October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets Today: Gold Up 1.4%, Chinese Exports Soar as Trade War Fears Return, DAX Bounces but Risks RemainMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdown In addition to the existing tariffs (that started to be put in place since 2015), Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, effective November 1. The President stated that China had taken an “extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World,” and accused them of holding the world “captive” with their control over “Magnets” and other Elements. Market reactions were immediate: the S&P 500 plummeted 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 closed down 3.5%, and the crypto market saw a record wipeout with Bitcoin tumbling over 8% and over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. Overview on the S&P 500, BTC and ETH Friday moves – Source: TradingView The most significant moves happened in major altcoins like Cardano going from $0.82 in the morning to $0.28 lows (67%!!) on a wick.A similar move happened in XRP going from $2.83 highs in the Friday morning to a $1.32 wick (-52%!)These crazy moves happened around 16:30 Friday during the liquidation.So why are things so green to start the week This marks another classic TACO trade—or Trump Always Chickens Out—came into play over the weekend, leading to a sharp reversal for stock future and cryptos. Nasdaq 15m Chart with the extent of the Friday Moves – Source: TradingView Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US had “aggressively pushed back” against China's export controls and confirmed the 100% tariff “does not have to happen,” indicating that President Trump was still on track to meet President Xi Jinping later in the month. Trump himself tempered his tone on Truth Social on Sunday, saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” and that the US “wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”.In response to this rapid U-turn, US stock futures surged higher at the Sunday Globex open, reversing the huge losses seen on Friday. The US Dollar had initially corrected from the higher tariffs and overall deleveraging from the Friday scare, but recovered the entire move since. Metals on the other hand just loved everything about the news yet again, with both Gold ($4,107 and Silver ($52) trading to new record highs. Moves since Thursday in the Dollar Index (left) and Gold (right) – Source: TradingView Looking at the current picture, China urged the US to "promptly correct its erroneous practices" regarding tariffs and to act with "equality, respect and mutual benefit", though they maintained they were “not afraid of a tariff war”.For now, the latest flashpoint has cooled, but the underlying trade tensions remain a significant risk for investors and traders as Markets approach the November 1 deadline for Chinese tariffs.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.