Despite what the banks and global analysts say in their 2026 projections, the Dollar has strengthened since the start of the year and shows only few signs of weakening.Of course, we are just halfway through January; there is still plenty of time for things to change. However, the Dollar's trajectory is now looking quite different.The Dollar Index isn't at 110.00 like it was just a year ago, before the Greenback corrected by 10% against all of its major peers – now hanging right around the 100.00 level. Consolidating since mid-July, bears have mostly barked, but the harsh descent seems already over.The reason for that? US economic performance is still beating its competitors despite tariffs, and US firms, particularly in the Tech and AI sectors, are dominant.Despite fears and headlines, American employment is still in a decent spot and has stalled its expected decline, as reflected in recent Jobless Claims and Non-Farm payroll numbers.To add injury to insult, the US Federal Funds Rate is the highest among the majors (except for the Bank of England's Rate, with which it is tied), leaving basis trades well active. zoom_out_map Interest Rates from OECD Countries – Courtesy of TradingEconomics It wasn't just the Greenback that was targeted last year – currency debasement hit all majors, as seen in Gold's performance against the OECD FX Basket.So is the Dollar still in danger? Yes. Policy directives from the Trump Administration can be unpredictable for nations and investors – Look at Canada PM Mark Carney turning to China for a Trade Deal in the absence of such from the US.And of course, the Fed's Independence at stake keeps hurting the Buck's prospects, notably fueling rallies in metals since August, but hasn't shown much change since, even with the latest Powell Investigation from the DOJ.But as long as commodities are still priced in US Dollars, Banks and firms still require Dollar funding, and the US Treasury is still the most liquid, safe-haven asset available, the Dollar can't just disappear from the system – leading to the current market conditions. Finally, with the recent interventions in Venezuela, threats to Iran, the dollar saw demand from Freedom Trade flows.On the other hand, some technical signals could point to a short-term correction in the USD demand.We will look at the Dollar Index and EUR/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar after its strong, surprising start to 2026. Read More:Metals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Chart Alert: Japanese yen short squeeze risk,158.15 key USD/JPY triggerDollar Index Daily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is rallying quite strongly since breaking out of its descending sequence from November.Rebounding in a very consistent uptrend, the DXY has held support and shown no corrections since December 24.However, now reaching the highs of its 99.50 Resistance Zone, momentum is weakening as can be seen on the Daily RSI.Let's see what will tilt the scales on the 4H Chart.4H Chart and Levels of Interest zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Showing a bear divergence in the 4H timeframe RSI, combined with the reaction to the resistance level, it looks like the Dollar is losing some steam.Still, keep a close eye on the confluence of the 4H 50-MA at 98.96 and the 2026 Channel lows.Breaking that level would point to continued downside and could retest the December 2025 Lows at 97.75.In the event of any intervention in Iran, the Dollar can also spike above to keep that in mind.Overall, the Moving Averages are flatlining in the US Dollar, indicating further consolidation/rangebound action for the time being.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.502026 Highs 99.49100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.96 4H 50-MA and Channel Lows98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportEUR/USD 4H chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is showing reactions corroborating with the slowing momentum in the DXY.Bouncing from the 1.16 Support and Channel lows, mean-reversion should hold well towards the 4H 50-MA at 1.1655.Rallying on high volume and candles could easily lead to a break out of the descending channel towards the flatlining 200-Period Moving Average (at 1.17).Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (Channel Highs and 4H 50-MA)1.17 4H 200-MA1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1580 to 1.16 Key Support1.1560 Channel lows1.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.1593Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Weekend Risk and Headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Intervention risk is rising: USD/JPY stalled near the 159.45–159.75 resistance zone, levels historically linked to BoJ intervention, triggering sharp yen volatility as officials escalated verbal warnings, including the possibility of joint US–Japan action.JPY short squeeze risk is elevated: Speculative positioning in JPY futures has fallen to a one-year low, signalling crowded bearish bets. Any sustained USD/JPY downside could force short covering and amplify yen strength.Near-term technical bias turning lower: Bullish momentum in USD/JPY is fading, with a break below 158.15 likely to trigger a minor bearish reversal toward 157.50–156.12, while only a decisive move above 159.75 would revive upside risk. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention risk”, published on 13 January 2026.The price actions of the USD/JPY have staged the expected push up and hit the lower limit of the first immediate resistance zone of 159.45/159.75 (printed an intraday high of 159.45 on Wednesday,14 January 2026. Coincidentally, it was also the same intraday high of 159.45 on 12 July 2024 that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last intervened in the FX market to sell down the US dollar.The Japanese yen has been the most volatile among major currencies in the last three trading sessions. The JPY hit an 18-month low against the greenback on Tuesday, 13 January 2026, at 159.17 per US dollar, despite a slew of verbal interventions from Japanese authorities at the start of this week.USD/JPY K-shaped performance evaporated as intervention risk intensified zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The “strongest form of verbal intervention” comes in today’s Asia session (Friday, 16 January 2026), where Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama reiterated Tokyo’s readiness to act against excessive yen moves and, for the first time this week, highlighted the possibility of a US-Japan joint intervention in the FX market ahead of a thinning liquidity environment today (ahead of the weekend as well as the closure of US stock market on next Monday, 19 January for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day).The USD/JPY dropped by 0.4% to hit an intraday low of 157.95 and erased its earlier “K-shaped” performance in the FX market before it rebounded slightly to 158.20 at the time of writing (see Fig. 1).JPY futures positioning points to the risk of a short squeeze zoom_out_map Fig. 2: JPY futures large speculators net positions, excluding commercials net positions as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Based on the Commitment of Traders report compiled by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 6 January 2026, the number of large speculators’ net long positions in the JPY futures market, excluding commercials (hedgers) net positions, has declined to a 1-year low at 20,983 contracts (see Fig. 2).Being a contrary opinion indicator, the positioning by large speculators in the JPY futures has skewed towards a significant degree of bearish bias on the JPY, and a minor bullish reversal in the price action of the JPY can amplify the risk of a short squeeze due to “JPY shorts” scrambling to exit in light of the intervention risk as highlighted above.Let’s now highlight the short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key technical levels to watch on the USD/JPY.Bullish momentum is fading for USD/JPY, at risk of minor bearish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY major and medium-term trends as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The reintegration back below 158.30/158.35 on the USD/JPY, coupled with the bearish divergence condition and the bearish breakdown of its former parallel ascending support on the 1-hour RSI momentum indicator, suggests that a potential minor bearish reversal is brewing (see Fig. 3).Watch the 159.45/159.75 short-term pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY. A break below 158.15 opens scope for a minor bearish reversal to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.50, 157.00 (20-day moving average), followed by 156.12 (50-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance above 159.75 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.24/160.35 and 161.00/161.10. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Crude Oil, currently trading near $59.15 as of January 15, 2026, is under pressure following a sharp reversal and failure to hold the $61.00 level, driven by geopolitical volatility and the evaporation of a risk premium. This technical analysis explores the immediate neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook, while noting significant long-term indicators, such as the oversold monthly Stochastic and a 15-year short extreme in the COT report, which suggest the potential for a substantial bullish trend reversal.Crude oil - Daily chart zoom_out_map Source: Tradingview.com Crude oil daily chart - Past performance is not indicative of future results Market Context & Price Action: WTI Crude oil is currently trading around $59.15, having recently undergone a sharp reversal after failing to sustain a breakout above the $61.00 level. The chart reflects a period of heightened volatility triggered by geopolitical developments (specifically regarding US-Iran tensions) that saw a rapid "risk premium" evaporation.As of June 2025, crude oil has been trading within a descending Channel, as marked by the red lines on the above chart. On Friday, January 9th, 2026, price action broke above the descending channel's upper boundary and has remained above it since. The break took the price above a confluence of resistance, the intersection of the SMA21, the upper channel boundary, and the monthly PP at 57.68. The broken level has now turned into support.​Candlestick Analysis: The most recent daily candle is a large red "marubozu-style" or bearish engulfing candle, indicating intense selling pressure and a rejection of the recent multi-day rally.Monthly Support/Resistance levels: Pivot Point (P) at $57.68. Above that, resistance is firm at $60.37 (R1) and $63.25 (R2). Immediate support lies at $54.81 (S1).Price action broke above a secondary, steeper descending line (blue) and completed a throwback, finding support above the broken level. The fast EMA9 and SMA9 intersect with the blue line, forming an intermediate confluence of support.Gap Analysis: A significant price gap from early November (marked on the chart). Gaps often act as "magnets" for price action, even after they have been filled.Momentum oscillators: RSI (14): Currently at 52.21. This is a neutral reading, showing that the recent overbought conditions have been reset. However, the sharp downward slope of the RSI line indicates potential decelerating momentum.Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The Stochastic Oscillator is at 50.67 and falling. It has fallen below its signal line from a high, confirming short-term weakness.Crude oil - Monthly chart zoom_out_map Source: Tradingview.com Crude oil monthly chart - Past performance is not indicative of future results Applying the Fibonacci retracement (FIB) level to the "V-shaped" recovery from the 2020 lows (green diagonal line), which peaked in 2022 near $123.00, reflects that the current price of $59.22 is situated within a critical technical "battleground" defined by yearly levels. This area (highlighted in the yellow box) is a primary long-term support zone where the price has historically encountered support/resistance. The current price action on the monthly chart suggests a potential double bottom is forming.Momentum Oscillators: A potential positive divergence may be in play, as RSI is making higher lows while price action is making equal lows. (The potential double bottom)Stochastic (14, 1, 3): Sitting at 16.40, the Stochastic is in the oversold territory. Historically, readings this low have often preceded a short-term relief rally or a period of stabilization.Commitment of traders report (COT) zoom_out_map Source: Cotbase.com Commitment of traders - Crude oil COT report The most recent COT report, released on January 9th, 2026, including data up to January 6th, 2026, reflected that the “Managed money” category has reached a 15-year net short position level extreme, and is currently moving towards net long territory, suggesting that a change in sentiment and a reversal may be in play. Producers/Merchants' positioning is also moving towards short after reaching an all-time high, an extreme long position level.Conclusion The technical verdict for WTI Crude Oil is immediately neutral-to-bearish, with the failure to hold above $60.00 and the break below moving averages suggesting the path of least resistance is toward the S1 support level ($54.81). Bulls must secure a daily close back above the Pivot ($57.69) to regain control. This short-term caution, however, is offset by significant long-term indicators: the price is in a critical monthly Fibonacci support zone, the Stochastic oscillator is oversold, and the recent COT report shows a 15-year Managed Money short extreme. Ultimately, while traders should respect the short-term downside risk, the underlying sentiment and monthly chart structure suggest that the current price action may be forming the foundation for a more substantial, long-term bullish trend reversal. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil gives back its Iran-led premium as tensions abateExploring Technical Analysis to see where things currently standLooking at how any possible surprise could affect WTI prices Prices were indeed reaching extremes. Yesterday's surge to $62 was met with a sharp, one-way correction back to the low $59s, with the commodity actually finishing the session lower by 1%.The premium was built on the perception that a US intervention in Iran was imminent.The movement of US Army assets from nearby bases, including Al-Udeid in Qatar, was seen as a concrete sign of incoming action, as these foreign bases could be targets for shorter-range Iranian missiles.However, recent reports suggest that Gulf leaders—including those from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman—persuaded the US President to walk back his threats.The compromise stems from US reluctance to get bogged down in a prolonged war if limited intervention fails to trigger regime change—a risk heavily emphasized by US strategic counselors.Still, the revolts show no signs of easing. The pain for Iranian civilians is real, as they face the weakest Rial in history amidst extreme inflation, power and water outages, and record air pollution.Looking at betting markets, this dynamic is far from over. Odds for an attack before the end of the month still hover around 30%. zoom_out_map Betting Odds of a US intervention in Iran – Source: Polymarket The Trump Admin calls for an emergency UN Security Council meeting regarding the issue. Keep a close eye on the headlines regarding such.We will dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine potential price levels in the event of an US intervention or lack thereof. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Rally: $100K Target in Sight as Institutional Buying SurgesNikkei 225 Forecast: Bullish acceleration above 53,370 key supportBreaking News: UK GDP Expands 0.3% MoM, GBP BidUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 15, 2026. Source: TradingView After yesterday's scenario analysis, WTI prices did really respond to the 200-Day Moving Average at $62.40 as the dynamic for an immediate intervention stalled.In event-based trading, it is essential to mark upper and lower bounds for scenarios; From yesterday's example:Breaking above the 200-Day MA implied heightened volatility expectationsRejecting it would mean lower tensionsSo where are we today?Having broken the upward impulse, the premium unwinding is leading to the immediate retest of the July Monthly Bear Channel which provides support and a lower bound for action.Holding the channel highs ($58.50 to $59.30) implies that traders still haven't given up entirely on the eventBreaking below (re-entering the bear channel), translates into an intervention that is not a high-probability event anymore.Any surprise rally above yesterday's highs ($62.41), particularly on high volume and pace, is a trigger to know that the hammer is going down.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$60.50 Pivot Zone top$62.40 Past day highs (Above mean tensions)Resistance May 2025 Range $63 to $64Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$58.50 to $59.30 Break-Retest Zone at Bear Channel Highs (+ 4H 50-MA)$57.70 Friday lows mini supportVenezuela Lows $55.83$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows30M Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 15, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking closer to short-timeframes, the premium is progressively decreasing in a downward intraday trend – A small bear channel.Breaking below the Iran Premium Support area $58.50 to $59 would be the final level to assume that the event is fully done.However, breaking above the intraday channel however doesn't necessarily mean that the event is fully back: It will depend on the pace of the breakout.With traders exposing themselves again as prices correct, plus a technical break-retest, a rebound here would not be surprising.A slow grind higher could establish a range to $60.50A sudden explosion higher however confirms that things are heating upIn the event of a breakout above the previous day highs, WTI prices could easily go between $65 (conservative) to $80 for the most extreme case.Holding the channel to break below the support would lead to a re-entering of the July bear channel.Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin is up 5.59% for the week, driven by institutional consolidation, cooling U.S. inflation, and anticipation of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.MicroStrategy significantly grew its holdings by purchasing 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion.The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act aims to clarify regulation by establishing distinct oversight for digital commodities (CFTC) and centralized assets (SEC)Near-term technical levels point to key support at $95,000 and $92,000, with major resistance at the $100,000 psychological barrier.Most Read: The Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookBitcoin has demonstrated a robust recovery as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap has transitioned from a period of speculative volatility into a phase of institutional consolidation and regulatory formalization.The recent Bitcoin rally has come about as a result of converging factors which include a cooling inflationary environment in the United States, and the imminent arrival of a definitive federal regulatory framework via the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.Bitcoin is up around 5.59% for the week at the time of writing. zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Institutional Treasury Integration and Corporate Accumulation One of the key factors behind the recent rally is the scale of treasury participation. Many public companies have followed MicroStrategy’s lead, using Bitcoin as a standard tool to protect their wealth from inflation.The MicroStrategy StrategyIn early January 2026, MicroStrategy (MSTR) significantly grew its holdings:The Purchase: They bought 13,627 Bitcoin for about $1.25 billion (at roughly $91,519 per coin).The Total: This brought their total stash to 687,410 BTC.The Funding: To pay for this, the company sold roughly $1.13 billion in new stock and raised another $119 million through specialized "preferred" shares.Long-Term StabilityThis isn't just a gamble; it's a calculated financial plan. On January 12, Director Carl Rickertsen showed personal confidence by investing nearly $780,000 of his own money into company shares.Furthermore, MicroStrategy is keeping $2.25 billion in cash on hand to pay its bills and dividends, proving they are prepared for the long haul rather than just betting on price spikes.This trend is mirrored by the performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $697$ million in net inflows on January 5 alone, the highest single-day gain in over three months. These inflows, primarily driven by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity, suggest that institutional allocators are utilizing ETFs as a "liquidity floor," effectively absorbing sell pressure from retail participants.Legislative Catalysts: The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act Add to this a potential legislative catalyst in the form of a new bill called the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. This bill aims to stop the confusion between government agencies and create clear rules for the industry.Ending the Turf WarThe bill draws a "bright line" to decide who regulates what:The CFTC: Will oversee "digital commodities" (assets that are decentralized and not controlled by one person).The SEC: Will oversee assets that still rely on a central company, though with simpler rules than traditional stocks.The Fight Over StablecoinsThe biggest argument in the Senate right now is about stablecoin interest:The Ban: Banks are worried that if people can earn high interest on stablecoins, they will pull their money out of traditional bank accounts. Because of this, the bill currently bans paying interest just for holding a stablecoin.The Exceptions: Companies can still offer rewards if the user is actually doing something, like "staking" or using the coin for transactions.The Pushback: Major companies like Coinbase hate these restrictions. They argue the rules are unfair and might force crypto businesses to leave the US.What Comes Next for Bitcoin Prices? Bitcoin is currently in a steady transition phase as the heavy selling seen at the end of 2025 begins to fade.Long-term investors are holding onto their coins more firmly, and institutional buying has stabilized, suggesting the market has successfully absorbed recent price pressure.While the recent climb toward $96,000 was driven more by technical trading maneuvers than a massive wave of new buyers, the overall setup for the first quarter of 2026 looks promising.Given that there is less "sell pressure" and trading remains thin, even a small increase in new demand could trigger a significant price jump. If steady buying from spot markets and ETFs continues, this quiet period could be the foundation for the next major leg up.Technical Analysis - BTC/USD Looking at structure though (on the H4 chart), and price has just printed a higher high before dropping in the Asian session.This could partly be down to profit taking and market participants eyeing consolidation ahead of the next major move.The move lower has led the period-14 RSI to leave overbought territory with a retest of the neutral 50 level now a possibility.Immediate support may be found at 95000 before the 92000 breakout level and 100-day MA resting at 91042 comes into play.A move higher here will have to navigate its way beyond the 100000 and then gain acceptance above this psychological barrier. Beyond that market participants may eye the 103647 and 105000 handles as points of interest.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 15, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's not-so-bullish CPI trading (despite a positive report), US Indexes are plummeting.The move reflects overbought conditions amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing diversificationExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Yesterday sent a clear warning shot to US Traders: even a positive CPI report—arguably the Fed's primary concern—failed to hold the bid. Indexes finished in the red, leaving sell-the-news hints.And that hesitation is materializing into a full-blown pullback in today's session.Nasdaq is leading US Indexes in their fall, down 1.50% as I write this.After the relentless Freedom Rallies across equities last week, the market shrugged off everything, including the unprecedented investigation into Chair Powell. However, the escalating tensions in Iran are now being used as the pretext for a significant selloff in equities.On paper, the past week rally made perfect sense: record low credit spreads, record high bond issuance (signaling robust economic confidence), and solid earnings from early reporters all supported the bull case.But the tone has shifted. With Oil bouncing above $62—up 10% since the Maduro capture—volatility has returned, and it is rarely an investor's best friend. As JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon noted, geopolitical risk remains the single biggest headwind for equities across asset classes. This focus naturally overshadows Black Swan risks, such as potential credit distress or fears of an AI peak – Keep a close eye on those throughout 2026. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:39 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 14, 2026 Looking at the tape today, the Magnificent 7 are taking a hit, with losses ranging from -0.85% for Google to -2.30% for Nvidia. The broader market picture isn't faring much better.Energy stocks are the lone outperformers, profiting from the WTI surge despite high inventory levels. Outside of the oil patch, capital is rotating strictly into defensive havens, with Household Products and select Healthcare names holding the line.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:The Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookBitcoin and Altcoins Breakout as Stock Market Momentum Fades – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookChart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watchDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones is suddenly turning bearish after yesterday's All-Time High fakeout.Now breaking its 2026 rising channel and passing below its 4H 50-Period MA, momentum is turning bearish – Confirmed with the descending RSI.As the selloff attempts to ram through the 49,000 Psychological, look at the November Channel lows:Bouncing from there could provide a decent dip-buying opportunity if sentiment gets betterThe Channel and 48,600 Support Zone breaks, hinting at pursued downside (which could lead to 45,000 being retested)Still far but this scenario is rising in probability. Be careful for extreme long positions.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,151 4H 50-MA Short-term Resistance 49,200 to 49,30049,650 to 49,670 Current ATH Resistance46,710 All-Time Highs50,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels48,600 to 48,800 Major Support and November Channel LowsPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView The picture is looking very grim for Nasdaq despite its stronger performance yesterday:Bears are now fully in control after a double top fakeout at the CPI release and a break of its 2026 upward trendline.Looking out, it seems that the Nasdaq is stuck in a 24,700 to 25,800 large consolidation, but as Supports are breaking, keep a close eye on Higher Timeframe charts to see if things materialize into something worse.On the immediate picture, the selloff is showing oversold on the 4H CPI – Hence, look at whether a pullback higher comes at the 25,500 Minor Support or if lower consolidation points to continued downside.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H MA 200 (25,480)intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 FakeoutMomentum Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSession highs 25,877All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182 Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250 (immediate test)25,850 Mini Support24,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now rejecting its 7,000 new Major All-Time Highs, the S&P 500 picture is also looking grim.Bulls will face a key test at the 6,880 to 6,900 Psychological Pivot after breaching the 4H 50-MA (6,935).Breaking below will lead to a fully bearish price action.Holding there would hint at a simple yet scary retracement.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 50 MA at 6,935Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Session lows 6,8936,800 Psychological SupportSupport 6,720 to 6,7506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil explodes higher from Iran tensions and supply fearsExploring Technical Analysis for a rally in the commodityWTI faces headwinds of catalysts across the globe, with Venezuela and the Middle East 2026 is shaping up to be a chaotic year for traders.Between record corporate issuance signaling high-paced economic activity, the US capture of a head of state in Venezuela (combined with threats to other nations), and now revolts in Iran, geopolitics has firmly taken the lead in driving volatility.Our recent edition on Black Gold suggested that despite higher supply expectations following the Maduro capture—which pointed toward better exploitation of Venezuela's vast reserves—structural catalysts would emerge to prevent a slide to fresh 2025-2026 lows.And emerge they did.The biggest catalyst, of course, is the turmoil in Iran.Despite sanctions from OECD countries, Iran remains a critical supplier to the world's largest consumers, particularly China, which regularly absorbs 80% to 90% of the nation's ~4M barrels per day production.The risk premium, however, extends beyond simple production figures which haven't shown much change for now.Iran holds immense strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point they have used to block oil tankers and global sea traffic in the past.This threat adds a geographic premium to the price of every barrel, even if domestic production continues uninterrupted.Looking back to the "12-Day War," WTI surged from $62 to $76 in a matter of days. With that precedent in mind, traders are actively positioning themselves for a potential price explosion.Looking back to the 1979 revolution, participants fear that Oil workers may join the Revolt, as the Iranian government already killed an estimated +10,000 civilians in the protests.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine if technicals point to continued upside or if prices are approaching relative extremes. Read More:Chart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watchBitcoin and Altcoins Breakout as Stock Market Momentum Fades – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) on the brink of bullish acceleration, US$4,780 nextUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI has officially broken out of its major descending channel that led the price action from after the 12-War to the current rally.Now forming a tight-bull daily channel, bears have disappeared from the immediate action as the risk-premium takes over.A tight bull channel occurs when green candles succeed one after the other. The pattern breaks if a bear candle closes below the previous.There won't be anything to stop the rally until the 200-Day Moving Average at $62.43.To see what the next step will be:Can bulls manage a break above the 200-Day MA? To assume so, look for a daily close above the indicatorA break without retest would point to even more bull pressureWill sellers re-appear at the MA? If they do so, look for long entries at the Pivot Zone retest ($60.00 to $60.50)WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView Reactions will be interesting around here as the price action reaches overbought levels on the 4H RSI.The morning rally is stalling slightly which prompts either consolidation or retracement – No retracements hints at further one-way continuation.In the event of a correction, look at $60.80 for short-term entries, lows of the Tight Bull Channel.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$62.13 Session Highs$62.43 200-Day MA (to break for real breakout)Next Resistance May 2025 Range $63 to $64Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$60.80 Aggressive Support (intraday)$60.50 Pivot Zone retest Support$59 Pivot Zone lows$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows30M Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView The rally is stalling and consolidating at its relative highs. With the action rangebound on short-timeframes, remain patient for these three signs:30M RSI corrects back to the Neutral Level (40)Bulls manage to break above session highs ($62.13) with volume, pointing to a 200-Day MA test – Very bullish aboveBreaks manage a correction to $60.80Breaking below would lead at least to $60.00Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (14/01/2026): Join us today as TraderNick and Jonny discuss the Supreme Court's vote on the legality of tariffs and the knock-on effect on the US dollar. Amongst other topics, we also reflect of recent worldwide equity performance, the health of the current rally and prediction for 2026. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold breaks into price discovery: XAU/USD reversed sharply from a shallow pullback, cleared its prior all-time high, and is now entering a bullish acceleration phase, with US$4,780 emerging as the next upside target if momentum holds.Macro backdrop strongly supportive: Softer US labour data, cooler-than-feared core inflation, rising geopolitical risk, and mounting concerns over Fed independence are reinforcing demand for gold as a defensive asset.Technical and intermarket signals align: Gold remains firmly above its rising 20- and 50-day MAs, momentum is constructive, and capped US real yields are reducing opportunity costs, supporting further upside as long as US$4,512 holds. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal next”, published on 7 January 2025.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have only done a shallow, minor corrective pull-back towards the first immediate support zone of US$4,430/4,403 (printed an intraday low of US$4,407 on last Thursday, 8 January 2025.Thereafter, the yellow metal underwent a bullish reversal and surged above its prior all-time high of US$4,550, set on 26 December 2025. In today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, it traded firmer, rallied by 0.8% to hit another intraday all-time high of US$4,639 on the time of writing.These are the four key near-term supporting macro factors A soft US labour market (non-farm payroll for December missed expectations).US inflation is not as red hot as feared (US core CPI for December came in below that expected on both m/m and y/y).Fed’s independence at stake; after a surprising US Department of Justice’s criminal charge being slapped on Fed Chair Powell, in a possible attempt to remove him as a Fed Governor after his chairmanship ends in May.Rising geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East arising from Iran’s civil unrest, which may lead to regime change with involvement from the US.Let us now decipher the next short-term movement in Gold (XAU/USD) based on a technical analysis perspective.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bullish acceleration zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: 10-year US Treasury real yield major trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,512 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,645 increases the odds of a bullish acceleration towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,684/4,687, US$4,720, and US$4,774/4,780 (Fibonacci extension clusters) (see Fig. 1).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below US$4,512 negates the bullish tone to open up scope for another round of minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support zone at US$4,430/4,403 (also the rising 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias Price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) remain in a constructive minor and medium-term uptrend phases as it continues to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) is holding above a parallel ascending trendline at the 50 level, which suggests a potential short-term bullish condition.Intermarket analysis: Since 10 December 2025, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (after subtracting the 10-year US breakeven rate that measures US inflationary expectations in the next 10 years) has been capped by its 200-day moving average and a key medium-term resistance at the 1.87% level. These observations suggest that opportunity costs of holding gold are unlikely to see upside pressure, in turn, increasing the demand for gold (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

CPI Morning is sending surprising signals around the MarketsTraders could be preparing for more volatile events, potentially including US interventions in Iran.Volatility is a bit constrained, but a tense atmosphere can be felt. Markets just received a constructive CPI report: no upside surprises and a relatively cool year-over-year print below 3% (Core CPI at 2.6%!). There is no base effect distortion here but decent stability in inflation.You can look at the details of the morning release right here.By the textbook, the decent report should have triggered a continuation of the "Debasement Trade" (metals and stocks rallying while the Dollar slips).The reality, however, is unfolding quite differently.It seems traders are looking right past the inflation data to focus on other, potentially more volatile catalysts.Let's take a look around the Market by diving into key performers around asset classes (US Dollar, Silver, Dow Jones, Bitcoin and WTI Oil). Read More:Dow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loomChart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention riskBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewUS Dollar Rallies Back zoom_out_map Dollar Index 30M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView After an initial knee-jerk drop, the Greenback staged a surprising recovery to past week highs. The theme here goes beyond the CPI; participants could be pricing in a potential Iran intervention, driving safe-haven flows back into the Dollar.Silver Explodes to $89 (New ATH) while Other Metals are Asleep zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Metals, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium XAG/USD has exploded compared while most metals are flat or down, Silver is rising toward $90 (the move is calming slightly as we speak). This bizarre divergence suggests potential positioning issues—Are some big players caught short?By the way, the CME just changed their margins requirements to a percentage of the notional value compared to the traditional value in an attempt to restrict ongoing volatility. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 30M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Stocks Retreat from their Relative Highs zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 30M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Stocks, which might have been expected to celebrate the decent CPI report, are painting a mostly red picture. The drops aren't massive, but they reflect a shift in momentum. The "sell-the-news" reaction could be prompting profit-taking after the blistering start to 2026. zoom_out_map Current US Stock Market Heatmap (11:57) – Source: TradingView Tech and Microprocessors are actually leading the Markets while the rest of the picture is red. Nasdaq just turned slightly positive as I am writing this.Bitcoin is rallying back – Crossing above its 50-Day MA zoom_out_map Bitcoin 30M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Bitcoin is the morning's major surprise, shining bright while traditional risk assets fade. We will be breaking down the details of this move throughout the afternoon so stay in touch!Oil is breaking above $60 zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI is reclaiming $60, ignoring the CPI to focus entirely on the Iranian Revolts. With EU and US administrations canceling planned meetings and even banning Iranian officials altogether, the market is sensing that a US intervention is imminent. A significant risk premium is being priced back in.I hope some of you read our preview for Oil for 2026 – More could be coming if things turn sour!Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments; they, rather than economic data, are now the primary drivers of today's market volatility.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rotation favours DJIA: Sector rotation since late December has driven the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, reinforcing near-term relative strength in the DJIA.Bank earnings are the catalyst: With financials sector making up around 28% of the DJIA and heavyweights like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan reporting, Q4 bank earnings could amplify volatility and act as the next directional trigger.Bullish technical structure intact: The US Wall Street 30 CFD index remains in a rising channel above key moving averages, with momentum improving; a break above the current all-time high opens the door to further upside, while 49,250/49,096 is the key support to defend. Since late December 2025, a clear sector rotation has taken hold in the US equity market, with former laggards—the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming AI-heavy mega-cap technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.Year-to-date as of 12 January 2026, the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 6.2% and 3.2% respectively, decisively outpacing the S&P 500 (+1.9%) and Nasdaq 100 (+2.1%) (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: YTD performance of major global stock indices as of 12 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Key US financials’ earnings are the current key drivers for the DJIA This week, several major US financial institutions will report their Q4 2025 earnings results: JPMorgan (Tuesday, January 13), Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo (Wednesday, January 14), and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock (Thursday, January 15).The US financial sector, with a weightage of around 28%, is the largest weighted component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).In addition, the top price-weighted component stock in the DJIA is Goldman Sachs, with a weight of around 11.8%, and another major US financial institution, JPMorgan, ranks in the 10th spot in the DJIA with a weight of 4%.Hence, the earnings release of the aforementioned US financial institutions may trigger a more volatile movement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for this week.Let’s now dissect the movement of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) from a technical analysis perspective.Evolving into an accelerating bullish trend zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Ratios of S&P Financials & S&P Banks ETFs over S&P 500 ETF as of 12 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index have evolved into a steeper minor ascending channel after it hit a low of 47,875 on 2 January 2026, and it continues to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).In conjunction, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout on Monday, 12 January 2026, above a parallel descending trendline resistance, and has not reached an extreme overbought condition.These observations suggest that the US Wall Street 30 CFD index is likely in the process of transitioning into a potential bullish acceleration sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase that has remained intact since the 23 May 2025 low.Tthe ratio charts of the S&P Financials exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF over the S&P 500 ETF have traded above their respective 50-day moving averages decisively in November and December, which suggests a potential medium-term outperformance of US banks (see Fig. 3).Watch the 49,250/49,096 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 49,606 (current all-time high area) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 49,805/49,840 and 50,265/50,335 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel and Fibonacci extension).However, failure to hold at 49,250/49,096 negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 48,870/48,770 (close to the 20-day moving average), and 48,480. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (12/01/2026): In today's episode, Kelvin and Jonny continue to unpack the poor US labour data from Friday and the knock-on effects for the Federal Reserve, which is currently predicted to cut rates twice in 2026. Otherwise, we discuss the recently announced criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over building renovations and growing politcal tension in Iran. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Great British Pound has found support of a key confluence area around the 1.3380 handle The move has come as the US Dollar facing a selloff over Fed independence fearsPowell vs Trump 2.0 Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Justice Department has served the central bank with legal orders (subpoenas) and is threatening criminal charges.Powell claims this is part of a larger campaign by the White House to pressure the bank. He explicitly stated that these threats are a punishment because the Fed refused to follow President Trump's demands to lower interest rates, choosing instead to make decisions based on what is best for the public.While President Trump denies knowing anything about the investigation, he has a long history of attacking Powell for not cutting rates as quickly as he wants. This move has brought Fed independence fears to the forefront once more. As a result the US Dollar struggled for the majority of the day.The DXY does however face a crucial support test which may prove a tough nut to crack around the 98.70 handle.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Catalysts Ahead with US Inflation & UK GDP Data Traders are closely watching the UK's economic growth report on Thursday but before that tomorrow's US inflation report is expected to be higher than most experts predict (rising 0.4%). Investors are feeling calmer about the American job market after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% on Friday, even though the underlying details aren't entirely positive.Finally, the dollar was expected to get a boost from the US Supreme Court, which is likely to rule against President Trump's tariffs sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. If not the Dollar may remain under pressure with the next catalyst likely to be Thursday UK GDP release. zoom_out_map zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical perspective, GBP/USD did bounce off a key confluence area around the 1.3380 zone.This area plays host to the 100 and 200-day MAs while also being a key area of support and resistance in the past.The move today was further helped by fundamentals around the US dollar which has experienced a selloff.The bullish move has also seen GBP/USD bounce off the 50 level on the period-14 RSI. This hints at bullish momentum.On the upside cable does face some significant hurdles as well with the 1.3500 handle before the recent highs at 1.3568 comes into focus.GBP/USD Daily Chart, January 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Donald Trump is a stubborn President, to say the least. Just when markets were enjoying a few relaxing months of silence regarding Fed independence, the Administration has struck again.Over the weekend, the Department of Justice opened a formal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, regarding statements made during his recent Senate Testimony.It is painfully easy to read between the lines here. This appears to be a political masquerade—a manufactured pretext to fire Powell before his term officially concludes.The impatience seems unjustified, given that his tenure ends in May 2026 and markets are already expecting an announcement on his successor by the end of this month.In a special address delivered yesterday evening, Chair Powell fired back, significantly upping his tone regarding the Federal Reserve's stance against politicized interference.The Verdict: Market Chaos. zoom_out_map Dollar Index 1H Chart. January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is plummeting to start the week and stocks are in the red. On the other hand, keeping with the dominant trend of the past year, Metals are shining bright.Acting as the preferred safe haven—displacing even the Yen and the now-compromised US Treasuries—precious metals have shot through the roof in early trading.This political theater highlights a structural shift: Central Banks and investors are aggressively diversifying away from an overdependence on US assets as their traditionally stable reputation erodes.Gold has now solidified its place as the largest reserve asset for central banks, with China leading a global diversification charge. zoom_out_map Gold and US Dollar as Central Bank Reserves – Courtesy of Vaulted.com With Silver breaking $85 and Gold comfortably trading above its previous peak ($4,600+), the message is clear: Metals are not looking to ease their rally anytime soon.The buying frenzy is broad-based, with Platinum, Palladium, Copper, and Aluminum all chasing new monthly or yearly highs as we speak.Let's dive right into a two-timeframe intraday analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to see where these flows could be heading. Read More:Markets Today: Safe Havens Benefit on Trump-Fed Feud, Silver Gains 5% as Gold Breaches $4600/oz. What Comes Next?CPI is back on time – Markets Weekly OutlookDecember US Jobs Report Shows Weaker HiringGold (XAU/USD) Daily and 2H ChartsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the past week close above $4,500, technicals went right ahead to magnify the return of even-more bullish fundamentals for the yellow metal.Since August, the rally hadn't seen many retracements, but after the late-December correction, a strong upward Channel is forming, with the latest bounce being used by bulls to reach the current all-time highs.Easily blasing beyond the Weekly divergence noted last week. Currently at $4,630 and running, Gold will face a small technical resistance at $4,666, from a key Fibonacci projection (1.618 from 2023 Lows to mid-2025 levels).If bulls breach the level, there won't be much until $5,000 which coincides with the top of the Channel.Let's take a closer look.2H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Forming a tight bull channel on the intraday timeframe, nothing but some overbought conditions seem to be stopping the rally in Gold.Reaching session highs at $4,630, the frantic buying is stalling a bit.For pullbacks, aggressive pullback buying could take place at $4,590 (intraday channel lows).Breaking the steep session channel would point to a retest of the previous All-Time highs around $4,550.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,630 Current session and all-time High$4,660 to $4,670 Potential ResistancePotential Mini-Resistance 2 $4,700 to $4,720Top of Daily Channel and Psychological Level $5,000Support LevelsIntraday Channel lows $4,590Previous ATH Pivot (as Support) $4,500 to $4,550Session Lows Previous ATH Pivot (as Support) $4,500 to $4,550Major Intraday Support $4,400 and 4H 50-MADecember 31 Mini-Support Support $4,280Weekly Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) Daily and 2H ChartsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action in XAG/USD is starting now looking insane.Silver is leading its peers yet again in today's action, up around 8% in a huge bullish candle in today's action, easily breaching beyond the $85 psychological level, leaving more technical upside to the rally.Also forming a Daily Channel, no resistance is emerging before the $88 to $89 Fibonacci Area. Except for any major fundamental change (like world peace or a return of Fed Hikes), nothing is looking to stop the run.Let's see what intraday charts are telling us.2H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 2H Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the action now stalling a bit after the tumultuous overnight/morning action, Silver traders will be looking at two technical elements:Whether bulls manage to fully break above the Sideways Channel (testing a breakout)Or follow the steep Tight Bull Channel from the current session, pointing to even more aggressive action.Breaking below this one hints at a retest of the $80.00 Momentum Pivot.Maintaining the momentum would easily guide the action to $88 and potentially more.To put things into perspective, SIlver is up 77% since Williams comments hinted at a December Fed Cut!Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:$86.23 Session and All-Time HighsPotential Mini-Resistance 1 $87 to $89Potential Mini-Resistance and Psychological Level 2 $90 to $92Support Levels:$82 to $84 Previous ATH Pivot (As support)$80.00 Momentum Pivot$75 to $77 Minor Support and Channel lowsDecember 31 Lows $70.00Pre-FOMC Major Support $58.00 to $60 and 50-Day MASafe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The December US employment report confirmed a clear slowdown in hiring that had been visible throughout the past year. Data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 50,000 in December, well below market expectations of 70,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.4%. zoom_out_map NonFarm Payrolls monthly change (in thousands), source: Bloomberg While the decline in unemployment may suggest stability in the labor market, the details of the report point to a more complex picture.Uneven Hiring Across SectorsJob growth was concentrated mainly in leisure and hospitality as well as health care. These industries accounted for the majority of new jobs both in December and throughout 2025. At the same time, five of the eleven major sectors of the economy recorded declines in employment, including retail trade, construction, and manufacturing.Private-sector employers added only 37,000 jobs, a fraction of the gains seen in the same period a year earlier.Data Revisions and a Weak Annual BalanceIn addition, payroll figures for October and November were revised down by a combined 76,000 jobs, further weakening the picture of labor market momentum. For the full year 2025, employment rose by just 584,000, making it the weakest year for job creation since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a sharp collapse in the labor market.Labor Force Participation and Long-Term UnemploymentThe labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%, while the share of workers aged 25 to 54 — known as prime-age workers — remained steady. Meanwhile, the number of long-term unemployed people, defined as those out of work for 27 weeks or more, rose by nearly 400,000 in 2025, the largest annual increase since the pandemic.The number of people working part time for economic reasons also increased sharply, highlighting growing uncertainty among workers.Market Reaction and the Federal Reserve’s StanceAs the labor market gradually cooled, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times toward the end of 2025. Following the release of the December report, however, investors began unwinding bets on further rate cuts. Treasury yields rose, and markets now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting. zoom_out_map Conditional Meeting Probabilities, source: CME FedWatch Tool According to Bloomberg economists, the latest jobs data may have raised concerns among policymakers, but not enough to justify a swift return to rate cuts.Wages and Consumer SentimentAverage hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month over month in December, in line with expectations. Although wage growth has been slowing, it remains a key driver of consumer spending, which has become increasingly concentrated among wealthier households. zoom_out_map United States Average Hourly Earnings (monthly), source: TradingEconomics Despite some recent signs of improvement, consumer confidence remains subdued and close to record lows.Cautious Outlook for the Year AheadEconomists expect the labor market to remain weak in the coming months, with limited job opportunities and further cooling in wage growth. This outlook could intensify household concerns about affordability and financial security, particularly ahead of upcoming congressional elections. As a result, the US labor market enters the new year in a fragile balance — without a sharp rise in unemployment, but also without clear momentum for a rebound. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals and Markets in general had been trading with angst regarding today's non-event Supreme Court decision day – After the NFP release, volatile swings were depicting a sense of confusion. The US Dollar Index is now back above 99.00 after strong swings.The Supreme Court makes announcements regarding decisions after Opinion Days, and with this decision being fast-forwarded, it is expected to be released before July.Elevated expectations for this Decision Day to pertain to Tariffs were followed by disappointment: We won't know if tariffs will be struck down or maintained until at least January 19th. zoom_out_map Daily Metal Performance (11:09 A.M) – Source: TradingView XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Now partly relieved of the decision (which would have huge impact on metals demand), precious metals are trading higher but still show quite some uncertainty:Struck down tariffs (consensus decision) would have a negative effect on metals as part of their demand in 2025 was from the fact that tariffs would require a faster de-dollarization process. The fact that this is priced in already would mitigate the effect somewhat – The reactions would be expected to be reflected depending on how the White House respondsWithheld tariffs could lead to a continued high-paced upside in Metals, as it would not only maintain higher need for dollar-diversification, but would also compromise the independence of the court while adding precedent to the Trump Administration domination on legal issues.Silver is nearing $80 per ounce (check out our freshly released analysis) and Gold is already breaching $4,500.Ever since the final week of 2025 and record highs in almost all traded metals, the price action has been more mixed: Long metals is now a heavy consensus trade and which makes its upside limited while adding magnitude to potential downside (even if fundamental conditions still warrant demand).Let's dive into High and intraday timeframes analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) and Palladium (XPD/USD) to spot how things are looking on the technical aspect. Read More:Why venezuela’s political transition has left oil markets largely unmovedMarkets Today: Chinese Inflation Edges Higher, Gold Steady with NFP & Supreme Court Decision Now in FocusMonetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleGold (XAU/USD) Weekly and Intraday ChartsWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XPD/USD) Weekly Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now consolidating above $4,500, Gold is holding strong as high expectations for its 2026 performance maintain prices bid, even after the not-so-dovish NFP Report.Gold reacts very strongly to psychological and round levels – Today's close above or below $4,500 could have important repercussions.One thing to note on the weekly chart however is the weekly RSI bear divergence which may act as a bearish catalyst in the coming trading period:Any move lower may get magnified from the technical indication.On the higher timeframe, look at whether the $4,000 level holds or not to see if the picture holds bullish or turns bearish.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Momentum is holding very strong for Gold after today's data release and no-decision regarding tariffs.Holding a bullish trendline, traders should watch whether prices keep bouncing towards new record highs. In case they don't, expect a swift test of the $4,400 Pivot Zone and 4H MA 50.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,550 Current all-time HighATH Resistance $4,500 to $4,5501.618% Fibonacci Projection $4,666 to $4,680Support LevelsMajor Intraday Pivot $4,400 and 4H 50-MADecember 31 Mini-Support Support $4,280$4,160 Major Intraday SupportWeekly Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000$3,500 Major SupportPalladium (XPD/USD) Weekly and Intraday ChartsWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) Weekly Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Palladium is reacting to the $2,000 psychological resistance but maintains a strong picture.Rising from $800 to $2,000 throughout 2025, the metal is a late bloomer of the trend.Hanging above its Major pivot Zone ($1,600) provides a still-bullish picture but the metal will track performance in other more commonly traded metals such as Silver or Gold, so keep an eye on those.Palladium also holds a strong correlation to Platinum, the other Proxy for those who missed the huge rally in metals this year.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) 4H Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, Palladium is slowing its buying momentum as profit-taking occurs after high swings – Sellers are taking the lead at the $1,900 resistance, giving them the advantage.Stuck in a triangle consolidation, keep an eye on these breakout scenarios:Bullish breakout ($1,930) – Test of the recent $2,080 highs, breaking would open to October 2022 levels around $2,300Bearish break ($1,730) – Retest the short-timeframe Major Pivot from $1,650 to $1,670Palladium Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$1,950 to $2,080 Major ResistanceImmediate Resistance $1,900 to $1,930October 2022 Highs $2,390$3,410 2022 All-time HighsSupport levels$1,720 to $1,730 Key intraday Support, 4H 50 MACurrent Pivot $1,650 to $1,670 (October peak)$1,500 Major Psychological SupportNovember Support $1,350$1,100 September Lows SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Venezuela’s production capacity remains capped near 1 million barrels per day, far below historical levels.Sanctions, degraded infrastructure, and political risk prevent a rapid supply rebound.Heavy, high-sulfur crude requires high prices and massive investment to be economically viable.Venezuela’s oil is a long-term strategic option, not a near-term supply shock. Global oil prices have reacted only marginally to Venezuela’s political transition, reflecting a market consensus that the country will not deliver a meaningful increase in crude supply in the near future. While Venezuela holds vast oil reserves, investors remain focused on practical constraints—limited production capacity, deteriorated infrastructure, and weak investment economics—which prevent any rapid supply response.Production capacity remains severely limited At present, Venezuela’s effective production capacity is estimated at around 1 million barrels per day, only slightly above current output and far below the roughly 2.5 million barrels per day produced a decade ago. Years of mismanagement, underinvestment, and international sanctions have left the oil sector unable to scale up quickly. Recent U.S. actions have reinforced these limits: sanctions on shipping reduced exports to about 500,000 barrels per day, forcing production cuts as storage filled up. Even proposals for the U.S. to purchase oil held in floating storage would ease logistical pressures rather than unlock new supply.Weak investment economics and high costs Some modest recovery is possible if sanctions are eased and the United States becomes a stable buyer. Smaller, risk-tolerant producers could restart marginal fields, potentially lifting output by around 300,000 barrels per day over the next two to three years. This would bring production toward roughly 1.4 million barrels per day—still insufficient to influence a global market consuming more than 100 million barrels per day.Structural and economic barriers remain substantial. Venezuela’s heavy, high-sulfur crude requires costly extraction, blending, and specialized refining, resulting in persistent discounts to benchmarks such as WTI. Estimates suggest break-even prices could approach USD 80 per barrel, making large-scale investment unattractive at current price levels. Rebuilding the sector would require around USD 100 billion in total investment, with annual spending of roughly USD 12 billion needed for decades to return production toward 3 million barrels per day—likely not before around 2040.Long-term strategic value, limited near-term impact Political risk further discourages major oil companies. A history of nationalization, contract revisions, and unresolved arbitration claims has left international producers wary of committing capital without strong legal and fiscal guarantees. While Chevron has maintained a limited presence, most large Western firms remain cautious.Against this backdrop, U.S. interest in Venezuela’s oil appears driven less by immediate market needs and more by long-term strategy. With U.S. shale output expected to plateau later this decade and other Western Hemisphere producers peaking in the early 2030s, future supply constraints are becoming a growing concern. Global oil demand continues to rise, and maintaining current production levels will require massive ongoing investment worldwide.In this context, Venezuela represents a long-duration strategic option rather than a near-term supply shock. Its oil resources could matter in the 2030s if prices rise significantly and political conditions stabilize, but for now, structural limitations explain why markets have largely shrugged off recent developments.Technical perspective zoom_out_map Daily chart of the CFD contract based on Brent crude oil prices, source: TradingView At present, Brent crude prices are rising dynamically and approaching the area of USD 63.5 per barrel. For now, the USD 59 level has proven to be a fairly strong support zone, with lows in this area recorded in mid-December 2025 as well as earlier in April and May. This support has so far prevented a deeper decline, and with a relatively high probability, prices may continue to move higher in the short term. Technical resistance is located around USD 65–65.5 per barrel, with the next major resistance near USD 70. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: When the radar goes dark: Navigating the market after the COT report delayThe first major economic release of 2026 arrives this Friday, January 9, at 8:30 AM ET. Following a year of significant volatility marked by a federal government shutdown and a series of interest rate cuts, this Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be the definitive barometer for whether the Federal Reserve’s recent easing cycle was a masterstroke or a premature reaction to a cooling labor market.Risks Heading into the Release The primary risk remains data noise. Residual effects from the late-2025 government shutdown continue to cloud the "true" hiring trend. Additionally, significant downward revisions to October and November figures could overshadow a decent December headline, painting a bleaker picture of the quarter's momentum.Market participants are also wary of a potential "January Effect," where rebalancing and new-year optimism collide with high-stakes data.Lastly there is the growing pressure on Jerome Powell in what will be one of his last meetings as Fed Chair. Comments from Stephen Miran on Thursday may be a sign of what Powell's successor would bring as they would be appointees of the current administration.Miran said he is looking at 150 bps of rate cuts through 2026, to boost the labor market. That is quite a stark contrast to what the Fed is currently pricing.The Consensus: A Moderate Recovery Economists are forecasting a modest rebound in hiring after months of data distortions. The consensus for December’s NFP sits at approximately 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs. This follows a November print of 64,000 and a catastrophic, shutdown-skewed October that saw over 100,000 jobs temporarily erased.While the headline hiring remains below historical norms of 100k+, the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 4.5% (from 4.6%).This slight drop is largely attributed to furloughed federal workers returning to payrolls and a low rounding threshold in the household survey.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM (3.6% YoY), a level the Fed considers consistent with its long-term inflation goals. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Deviation from the Consensus: What It Means The Hawkish Beat (85k+): A surprise to the upside would suggest the labor market is far more resilient than the Fed’s recent 75bps of cuts implied. This would likely ignite a "good news is bad news" reaction, as traders would be forced to price out a March rate cut, fearing the Fed may have to pause or even reverse course to combat "sticky" inflation.The Dovish Miss (<50k): A sub-50k print would confirm fears of a "material" weakening in labor demand. This would validate the market's current pricing for at least two more cuts in 2026, reinforcing the narrative that the US is in a late-cycle expansion vulnerable to recession.Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Nasdaq 100 The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received.The DXY is currently technically oversold and trades near key support levels. This creates an asymmetric upside risk. Because the market is already heavily positioned for a dovish Fed, a stronger-than-expected report (above 75k) could trigger a violent short-covering rally, driving the DXY back toward the 100 level. Only a significantly weak report would have the power to push the dollar toward fresh multi-year lows.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, January 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index enters this release on a knife’s edge. If the report hits the "Goldilocks" zone (moderate hiring with cooling wages), the Nasdaq could rally on the promise of continued Fed support. However, a strong NFP would likely spike yields, putting immediate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Conversely, a deep miss might initially support stocks via lower yields, but could quickly sour into a "growth scare" sell-off.Nasdaq 100 Four-Chart, January 9, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Outlook Moving Forward If Friday’s data confirms that hiring has bottomed out, the Fed may find its "soft landing." However, if the 3-month average continues to slide, the pressure on Jerome Powell and his potential successor to provide more aggressive liquidity will become the dominant market theme for the remainder of the quarter.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways: The 43-day COT report delay created a data vacuum, allowing "managed money" to build crowded, unseen market positions.The backfilled COT data caused a "positioning shock" in markets like soybeans, triggering sharp reversals as positions realigned.The lack of speculative sentiment data highlighted a major risk: market opacity significantly increases the chance of a "volatility explosion" upon the report's return.The 43-Day data vacuum: Unmasking the positioning shock in soybeans As a trader, operating without the Commitments of Traders (COT) report during the recent 43-day government shutdown felt like flying a plane through a thick fog without a radar. When the CFTC finally resumed operations on November 13, 2025, we were met with a massive data vacuum that had left speculative "managed money" to operate under the radar for over six weeks.The impact was immediately visible in the grains market; for instance, once the backfilled data started hitting the tape, we discovered a massive shift in soybeans, where funds had swung from a net short to a staggering net long of over 229,000 contracts. This "positioning shock" triggered sharp reversals as the market scrambled to realign with the reality of just how crowded those trades had become while the lights were off in Washington.The recovery process has been a lesson in patience and "detective work," as the CFTC opted to release the backlogged reports in chronological order rather than jumping to current dates. This meant that throughout late November and December, market participants were often trading based on snapshots that were weeks old, forcing us to rely on proxies like ETF flows, and the LME’s (London Metal Exchange) positioning data just to guess where the "big money" was leaning.While the Commission managed to accelerate the schedule to get us current by December 29, the lag effectively extended the period of market opacity. For those of us in the pits or behind the screens, the shutdown serves as a stark reminder: when the primary barometer for speculative sentiment goes dark, the risk of a "volatility explosion" upon its return becomes the single most important factor to hedge.Managed money vs. small speculators: Diverging net positions in soybean futures zoom_out_map Soybeans Chart 2023 - 2025 Source: COTbase.com Past perfomance is not indicative of future results The above chart displays a time series of net positions (Long minus Short) for key participant groups in the soybean futures market, which is crucial for gauging speculative sentiment and potential market turning points. The green trendline on the above chart shows the clear and aggressive swing in the Managed Money line. This is represented by the Managed Money line rapidly crossing above the zero line and spiking to the highest levels on the history axis, illustrating the sudden, crowded long trade that developed while the market was flying "without a radar." Ready to decode market positioning? Register now for our weekly recurring live technical analysis webinar, where we dive into the latest COT report and explore essential technical analysis tools for trading FX, commodities, and market indices. The red trendline shows small speculators were consistently selling or reducing positions while prices were moving higher, a common approach often seen on small speculators and/or retail traders in other markets such as FX trading. Interestingly, and as the price began to fall, their net position has trended back toward the zero line, suggesting "Small speculators" are covering shorts or attempting to catch a bottom as prices soften. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold was down as much as 1.2% before recovering to trade above the $4450/oz. The precious metal is still finding significant buying support on dips but does remain vulnerable if it does not breach the $4500/oz level.Geopolitics and US Data Geopolitical risk rears its head again as news came through earlier today that the US were going to seize another tanker out of Venezuela which was sporting a Russian flag. This has caused some concern about an escalation between the US and Venezuela as well as potentially Russia.The White House separately confirmed discussions about acquiring Greenland, including potential military involvement which is likely to keep safe haven demand in play as well.Further underpinning the precious metal was softer than expected employment data which continues to support further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US job openings fell more than expected in November after rising marginally in October, while a separate ADP report showed that private payrolls increased less than expected in December.What Comes Next for Gold Prices? Investors are closely watching for the release of the NFP data on Friday, January 9. This will likely have a major impact on rate cut expectations and thus could serve as a catalyst for gold's next big move.Gold does appear to still be volatile given the price action we saw today. So I would not rule out significant movement overnight in the Asian session.Tomorrow brings a batch of mid-tier US economic data that could spark some volatility. The key releases to watch include the initial jobless claims and the trade balance for goods and services. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is intriguing to say the least..The rally since the start of the week has failed to gain acceptance above the crucial $4500/oz level.The selloff today however, has run into a key area of support provided by the 50-day MA which rests at $4419/oz.Price has bounced and is now resting just around the $4450/oz handle, with the period-14 RSI also having bounced off the 50 level which hints at bullish momentum remaining in play.As things stand buyers remain in control with significant support to the downside. The ongoing geopolitical drama is also underpinning prices.This could all change with Friday's jobs data where a strong NFP print and a significant improvement in the unemployment rate could lead to a selloff which may threaten the $4400/oz handle.A move lower may look to retest the weekend gap which rests between the $4332-$4354/oz handles.Meanwhile, a move higher from here needs acceptance above the $4500/oz handle before a sustainable break of the current all-time high around $4550/oz becomes a possibility.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 7, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.