Trump: Had a great call with the president of European commission Von Der Leyensays that Europe and US are completely united that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.Agreed to give EU until July 4 to fulffill trade agreements or unfortunately there tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levelsThe full TruthSocial post:I had a great call with The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. We discussed many topics, including that we are completely united that Iran can never have a Nuclear Weapon. We agreed that a regime that kills its own people cannot control a bomb that can kill millions. I’ve been waiting patiently for the EU to fulfill their side of the Historic Trade Deal we agreed in Turnberry, Scotland, the largest Trade Deal, ever! A promise was made that the EU would deliver their side of the Deal and, as per Agreement, cut their Tariffs to ZERO! I agreed to give her until our Country’s 250th Birthday or, unfortunately, their Tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levels. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPRecall, on May 1, 2026, President Trump announced he was raising tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union to 25%, claiming the bloc had failed to fully comply with a trade agreement negotiated with the US. Trump made the announcement via Truth Social, stating: "Based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States." The White House said the changes would be made under Section 232.The EU rejected the claim that it was not in compliance, with a European Commission spokesperson saying the bloc remains "fully committed to a predictable, mutually beneficial transatlantic relationship." For context, the prior trade agreement — known as the Turnberry Agreement — had set a tariff ceiling of 15% on most EU goods, though a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year had complicated the tariff framework. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Banxico lowered the Benchmark interest rate to 6.5% from 6.75% as expected.Board members Heath and Borja voted to hold rates steady. Board members Rodriguez, Mejia, and Cuadra voted to cut rates. The board was not unanimous on the rate decision. Benchmark interest rate lowered to 6.50% from 6.75%. Headline inflation is projected to converge to target in Q2 2027. Looking ahead, the board estimates it will be appropriate to maintain the rate at its current level. Forecasts Q4 2026 average annual headline inflation at 3.5% versus previous forecast of 3.5%. Forecasts Q4 2027 average annual core inflation at 3.0% versus previous forecast of 3.0%. Forecasts Q4 2026 average annual core inflation at 3.4% versus previous forecast of 3.4%. Forecasts Q4 2027 average annual headline inflation at 3.0% versus previous forecast of 3.0%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil is settling at $94.81, down $0.27 or -0.28% on the day, after another volatile trading session driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting risk sentiment. Technically, the market is closing just below a key technical level — the 50% midpoint of the rally from the April 17 low — which comes in at $94.95. Holding below that midpoint keeps the near-term bias tilted slightly in favor of the sellers.On the topside, the price extended to a session high of $97.46, narrowly surpassing yesterday’s high at $97.34 before stalling. That area has repeatedly acted as an important ceiling — and at times a floor — going back to April 24, reinforcing its significance as a key battleground between buyers and sellers. As long as the price remains below that resistance zone, sellers remain more in control from a short-term technical perspective.Meanwhile, the session low reached $89.85, holding above yesterday’s low at $88.66. The ability to stay above that prior low helped stabilize the downside and encouraged some late-session buying, but buyers still need to reclaim the $94.95 midpoint and then break back above the $97.34–$97.46 resistance area to shift momentum back to the upside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECBs Schanabel is speaking and says: My view is that some damage done from Iran war will be hard to reverseThere seems to be a disconnect between the stock market and the global situation.Earlier, Schnabel said: Signs of supply chain disruptions are reemerging.Rapidly growing shares of European manufacturing firms are planning to increase prices. Household inflation expectations are adapting rapidly.If energy price shock broadens, monetary policy will need to tighten. Prices shocks are likely to feed through the economy faster than in 2021Risks have increased in recent weeksComments suggest that a tightening by the ECB is in the cards going forward This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of bases and airspace tied to operations around the Strait of Hormuz. The move clears a key obstacle for the U.S. effort to restart escorted commercial shipping operations through the strait. The U.S. had paused the mission, called Project Freedom, after concerns from Gulf allies about escalation and protection from Iranian retaliation. Saudi Arabia reportedly became concerned after U.S. officials appeared to downplay Iranian attacks on Gulf targets. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with President Donald Trump multiple times during the dispute. The operation relies heavily on Saudi and Kuwaiti bases and airspace because of the large number of U.S. aircraft protecting ships. Iran responded to the U.S. mission by launching missiles and drones at ships and the United Arab Emirates, including strikes on the Fujairah oil hub. The U.S. said it intercepted attacks and destroyed several Iranian fast-attack boats, though some non-U.S. ships were hit. Gulf states are increasingly worried Iran may believe it can strike regional countries without facing major consequences. Pentagon officials said any resumed operation would route ships through a mine-cleared corridor protected by U.S. naval and air forces.Meanwhile, Iran foreign minister criticized the unilateral and provocative resolution submitted by the US and the Gulf on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. They called the proposal one-sided and provocative. Araghchi emphasizing responsibility on the international community to prevent aggressors from abusing the Security Council as a tool to justify their illegal actions.Crude oil is trading higher and has pushed to a high of $97.46. That tests the corrective high price from yesterday after it tumble down to $88.70. The corrective high reached $97.34. Sellers are leaning on the first test. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly his is speaking and says: Committed to bring inflation back to Fed's 2% target.Monetary policy is slightly restrictive, and would put downward pressure on inflation should US war in Iran resolve.Said no indication yet that the energy prices surge is driving medium or longer-term inflation expectations higher.In addition to daily, Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) says inflation remains too high This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD are giving back earlier gains as broader market sentiment turns more cautious. The EURUSD is still modestly higher on the day by 0.08%, while the GBPUSD has slipped back to unchanged levels after failing to sustain upside momentum. Meanwhile, crude oil has rebounded sharply back above $95 after earlier trading as low as $89.85, helping push U.S. yields higher, with the 2-year yield up 3.3 basis points and the 10-year yield up 2.8 basis points. Equity markets have also softened, with the Nasdaq now down -0.14% and the S&P 500 lower by -0.30%, as traders reassess the lack of meaningful follow-through positive headlines out of the Middle East.Technically, the EURUSD has rotated lower after stalling just below key resistance levels. The pair reached a session high near 1.1778, falling short of last week’s high at 1.1785 and yesterday’s peak at 1.1795. The failure to extend higher has encouraged sellers, with the pair now testing an important swing level near 1.1754. A break below that support would shift attention toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.17257, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 1.1717 and the 100-day moving average at 1.1707. Those levels represent an increasingly important support cluster that buyers will need to defend to maintain the broader bullish bias.The GBPUSD is showing a similar technical pattern. Buyers attempted another push higher, but momentum stalled well ahead of yesterday’s high at 1.3643 and last Friday’s high at 1.36569. Today’s rally topped out at 1.3632 before sellers regained control and pushed the pair back lower. The low has now reached 1.3590, bringing the pair closer to a key support target near the 100-hour moving average and the low end of a swing area at 1.35746. A move below that level would open the door for a deeper correction toward the 200-hour moving average at 1.35523. A break beneath both hourly moving averages would tilt the short-term technical bias more firmly in favor of the sellers.In short, buyers had their opportunity to extend the bullish momentum in both pairs but failed to retest recent highs. Sellers are now trying to seize back short-term control, although they still need additional downside follow-through to strengthen the bearish case. Much may depend on how broader risk markets continue to react as optimism surrounding Middle East developments begins to fade. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil is rebounding off session lows near $89.85 after finding support above yesterday’s low around $88.70. That defense of the prior day’s low helped stabilize the market and sparked a recovery move as less optimistic headlines surrounding Iran negotiations began to filter back into the market narrative.Yesterday’s rebound from the swing low extended to a high of $97.34, and although prices remain lower on the day, buyers are attempting to regain some short-term control. From a technical perspective, crude is now approaching an important resistance target — the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April 17 high — which comes in at $94.95 (call it $95.00). That level is a key near-term barometer for both buyers and sellers.If buyers can push and hold above the $95 area, it would strengthen the short-term bullish bias and shift trader focus back toward yesterday’s corrective high at $97.34. A break above that level would then open the door for a move toward the psychologically important $100 mark, where the falling 100-hour moving average is also converging as an added resistance target.The rebound in oil prices is also weighing on equity markets. As crude has moved higher, stocks have surrendered part of their earlier gains, with the NASDAQ index now lower by roughly 20 points, or -0.08%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As the markets await response from Iran regarding the US 14 point proposal, the Washington host is reporting that US intelligence in a report says that Iran can outlast Trump's Hormuz blockade for months (90 – 120 days and possibly longer)Iran still retains much of its missile and drone arsenal despite sustained US and Israel strikes.Finally the report says that despite the blockade causing severe economic damage, that Tehran has enough resilience and workarounds such as oil stockpiles and alternative smuggling routes, to avoid immediate collapse.Out of Iran:A senior Iranian official said Iran would not allow the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with an unrealistic plan and then exit the war without paying any reparation for all the damage inflicted.Tehran has laid out a set of new rules for vessels seeking to transit the Strait of HormuzIranians Sec. parliament national security commission saysNo uranium has been exported from the country.The right to enrichment, the complete lifting of sanctions, and release countries assets are nonnegotiable redlines.Trump's claim about the withdrawal of 400 kg of uranium from Iran is a political one off and a pure lie. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD broke sharply higher yesterday, extending above the April and May swing highs between 0.7221 and 0.7227 — a bullish technical breakout that shifted momentum further in favor of the buyers. The rally carried the pair to a session high of 0.72769, pushing into a key swing area resistance zone from May 2022 between 0.72656 and 0.7283. Sellers leaned against that historical resistance area, likely defining risk against a break above the ceiling, and helped trigger a corrective move lower.Into the close of the North American session, the pair rotated back down toward 0.7222 — right near the prior breakout zone between 0.7221 and 0.7227 from the April/May highs this year. Importantly, buyers successfully defended that former resistance area as new support, keeping the broader bullish bias intact. As long as the price remains above that zone, buyers remain more in control.For sellers to regain momentum, the pair would need to break back below the 0.7221–0.7227 support area and then move beneath the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.7209 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.7189. A move below those key technical levels would tilt the short-term bias back toward the downside and increase bearish control.Currently, the AUDUSD is trading between two key technical boundaries: support near 0.7221 and resistance around 0.7277. A sustained break above 0.7277 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a run toward the next upside target near 0.7316 — another swing area from 2022. Beyond that, there is relatively little resistance until the 0.7500 level.Fundamentally, the Australian dollar has also been supported by this week’s hawkish move from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting. The move fully reversed the three rate cuts seen in 2025 as policymakers continue to respond to rising inflation pressures. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

April one-year-ahead expected inflation: 3.6% versus March’s 3.4% April three-year-ahead expected inflation: Unchanged at 3.1% April five-year-ahead expected inflation: Unchanged at 3.0% April year-ahead home price rise expected: 3.0% versus March’s 3.3% April year-ahead gasoline price expectations: Dropped “sharply” Current and future access to credit views: Deteriorated versus March April expectations for higher future unemployment: Rose to the highest level since April 2025 Households held mixed views on current and future finances in AprilMedian year ahead gas price growth expectations dropped sharply to 5.1% versus 9.4% spike from MarchMedian one year ahead earnings growth expectations rose to 2.7% but is lower from prior month 3.0% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe US stock market today presents a compelling dichotomy with technology stocks surging, while the energy sector grapples with significant declines. The heatmap reveals that the technology sector is leading the market, buoyed by gains in major players like Microsoft (MSFT), which is up by a noteworthy 2.52%. In the software infrastructure segment, companies like Oracle (ORCL) have jumped 2.50%, reflecting bullish investor sentiment.In stark contrast, the energy sector is experiencing a downturn, with ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both plunging by approximately 2.79% and 2.88% respectively. This sector's underperformance is largely due to ongoing uncertainties about global oil demand.Market Mood and TrendsToday’s market is characterized by mixed feelings. The strong performance within technology, especially with chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) gaining 2.54%, suggests growing investor confidence in tech-driven growth. Meanwhile, communication services remain mostly flat, with Google (GOOGL) slipping slightly by 0.29% amid continued competitive pressures in digital advertising.The downturn in energy and financials, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slipping by 1.83%, underscores caution among investors concerned about macroeconomic trends.Strategic RecommendationsGiven the current market landscape, a strategic focus on the technology and consumer electronic sectors can prove beneficial. Market participants might consider increasing their exposure to resilient tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), which rose by 1.06%, to capitalize on ongoing digital transformation trends.Considering sector volatility, diversification remains key. Investors should maintain vigilance over the energy sector dynamics, as any recovery may present an opportunity to buy at a discount. Keeping an eye on macroeconomic news and technological advancements will be crucial in navigating the present market.For ongoing insights and updates, please visit InvestingLive.com and stay informed with real-time market data. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Cleveland Fed Pres. Beth Hammack is speaking and says: I see a lot of uncertainty in economic outlook.Fed should be neutral and policy stance outlook given the uncertainty.Higher prices are weighing on consumer's ability to stand.Iran war can impact both sides of Fed's mandate.There was a lot more consensus that it appears at Fed meetingSees interest rates on hold for quite some timeSees low and stable unemployment right now.Job market remains low higher/low fire environment.Fed has been missing inflation target for years.War means price pressures could be more persistent.High inflation forcing more people toward trade-offs.Watching closely how long Iran war lastsexcited for new Fed chair Warsh when he arrivesinflation expectations remain well anchored to right now.High inflation could start weighing on demand.Uncertainty over outlook should translate to policy uncertainty.Can't put hard number on how long Fed should hold rates steady.Hammack comments provide a cautious and modestly hawkish message, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should remain patient and keep interest rates on hold given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. She stressed that policymakers should maintain a neutral policy stance for now, noting that there was actually more consensus within the Fed meeting than many observers may have perceived. Her expectation that rates could remain unchanged for “quite some time” reinforces the broader higher-for-longer narrative currently guiding Fed policy.A major focus of Hammack’s comments was inflation. She acknowledged that higher prices are increasingly weighing on consumers and forcing households into tougher financial trade-offs, while also warning that geopolitical risks — including the Iran conflict — could lead to more persistent inflation pressures. Although she described the labor market as stable, with low unemployment and a “low hire/low fire” environment, she did not indicate that economic conditions have weakened enough to justify rate cuts. Overall, the tone of her remarks suggests the Fed remains more concerned about inflation staying elevated than about an imminent slowdown in growth or employment.Hammack is a 2026 voter. Recall at the last meeting that she voted to keep interest rates unchanged at the last FOMC meeting, supporting the decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, she dissented from the wording of the policy statement because she objected to language that continued to imply an easing bias — meaning the Fed was still signaling that future rate cuts were likely. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US construction spending for March 2026 shows: Prior month -0.3%Construction spending 0.6% versus 0.2% expectedDetails from the US Census BureauTotal ConstructionMarch 2026 spending was $2,185.5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate)Up 0.6% from February 2026 ($2,173.2B) and up 1.6% from March 2025 ($2,150.8B)Year-to-date (Jan–Mar) spending totaled $479.4 billion, up 0.3% vs. the same period in 2025Private ConstructionTotal private spending: $1,659.0 billion, up 0.8% from FebruaryResidential: $929.7 billion, up 1.7% from February — the strongest monthly gain across all categoriesNonresidential: $729.4 billion, down slightly 0.2% from FebruaryPublic ConstructionTotal public spending: $526.4 billion, down 0.2% from FebruaryEducational: $113.0 billion, down 0.6% from FebruaryHighway: $147.8 billion, essentially flat, down just 0.1% from FebruaryKey TakeawaysOverall construction activity continues to trend upward year-over-year, reflecting steady momentum in the sector. The primary driver of monthly growth was private residential construction, which posted the strongest gain at 1.7% above February levels. In contrast, public construction saw modest declines, with both education and highway segments dipping slightly below their February estimates, though the changes were marginal and within the margins of error. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF is pushing to fresh session lows in early North American trading and is now trading at its lowest level since March 11. The latest leg lower has taken the pair beneath the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7771, while also breaking below a key swing area between 0.7771 and 0.7782. The low price has reached 0.7768 so far, keeping the sellers firmly in short-term control.With the break below that support zone, the 0.7782 level now becomes the key near-term risk-defining level for sellers. As long as the price remains below that ceiling, traders will continue to favor further downside momentum.Recall that earlier this week the pair attempted to rebound, but buyers repeatedly ran into sellers leaning against the falling 100-hour moving average — first on Tuesday and again at the start of trading on Wednesday. The inability to break and stay above that moving average reinforced the bearish technical bias and gave sellers a low-risk opportunity to lean against the level with clearly defined risk.So what comes next?If the price can stay below 0.7782, sellers will target the March 10 swing low at 0.77468. A break below that level would open the door for a deeper move toward the broader swing area from February 11 through February 27 between 0.7666 and 0.7672.Below that zone, traders would begin targeting the 2026 lows at 0.7628 and ultimately 0.7604.Conversely, if the current breakdown fails and the price rotates back above 0.7782, it would likely disappoint sellers and trigger short-covering back toward the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.78109. Buyers would need to regain and hold above that moving average to shift confidence back in their favor after repeated failures there earlier this week.Arguing against further CHF buying is the threat from intervention. Amid the Middle East conflict, the SNB signaled a greater willingness to intervene in currency markets to prevent excessive Swiss franc appreciation and protect price stability. This was reiterated in a late April speech by SNB Governor Schlegel, who said the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased, and that it can counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, as such appreciation would jeopardize price stability in Switzerland.However, analysts believe outright systematic intervention is constrained — the SNB is unlikely to engage in systematic intervention to weaken the Swiss franc in coming months, with the fear of being perceived as a currency manipulator by the US administration likely influencing this decision. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is pushing higher in early North American trading after buyers successfully defended a key technical support zone during the European session correction. Earlier in the day, the pair slipped back below its 200-hour moving average at 1.3627 (green line on the chart below), and tested the lower boundary of an important swing area support near 1.3620 (see green numbered circles). Recall from yesterday’s analysis that the break above the 1.3620–1.3631 swing area shifted the short-term bias back in favor of the buyers.As noted yesterday (see post here), the key for buyers was to hold above that broken resistance zone to confirm the breakout and build a stronger technical foundation for additional upside momentum. Today’s low reached 1.3621 — just above the lower edge of the support area — before the pair rotated back to the upside. The successful hold keeps the buyers in short-term control and reinforces the importance of that zone as a risk-defining level going forward.With the rebound now underway, buyers are once again targeting the session high at 1.3643. A break above that level would open the door toward the next resistance target near 1.3666 (see red circles). Beyond that, stronger resistance comes in between 1.3708 and 1.3715 — a key swing area that capped rallies repeatedly between April 16 and April 29. Just above that zone sits the falling 100-day moving average, currently near 1.3721 and still drifting lower, adding another layer of technical resistance.For buyers to maintain control, the pair needs to stay above the 1.3620–1.3631 support zone. A move back below that area would weaken the bullish breakout story and could shift momentum back in favor of the sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Limassol, Cyprus - May 2026, Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty across global energy markets drove a sharp increase in oil trading activity during the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest Market Recap from easyMarkets. While gold remained the platform’s most traded instrument overall, crude oil emerged as one of the fastest-growing asset classes as traders responded to heightened volatility across commodity markets. Following the exceptionally active conditions seen in late 2025, overall trading volumes moderated during the quarter. However, traders remained highly engaged, increasingly focusing on short-term opportunities created by rapid market movements and shifting geopolitical sentiment. Energy Markets Draw Increased Attention Gold maintained its position as the most actively traded instrument on the platform, reinforcing continued safe-haven demand during periods of uncertainty. At the same time, crude oil trading activity accelerated significantly as volatility across energy markets intensified. Market sentiment throughout the quarter was heavily influenced by geopolitical developments involving the US, Iran, and the Palestinian territories, alongside growing concerns surrounding global energy supply routes and the Strait of Hormuz. These developments contributed to sharper price swings across both oil and gold markets. “During the first quarter of 2026, we saw traders respond quickly to geopolitical developments, particularly within energy markets,” said Giannis Nikola, Chief Risk Officer at easyMarkets. “Gold continued to attract strong interest as a traditional safe-haven asset, while oil trading activity increased noticeably as volatility across the sector intensified.” Gold trading activity declined by approximately 40% compared to the exceptionally elevated levels recorded during Q4 2025. Despite the decrease, gold remained the platform’s top-traded instrument overall. Traders Favoured Short-Term Strategies The quarter also saw continued growth in intraday trading activity, with traders increasingly favouring tactical execution and shorter-duration positions over longer-term exposure. Client behaviour reflected a measured approach to risk management, with overall exposure and margin usage remaining relatively stable despite ongoing market volatility. Increased use of take-profit orders was also observed as traders actively managed positions during periods of rapid price movement. “Even as market conditions evolved, traders remained disciplined,” Nikola added. “We continued to see strong engagement in short-term trading strategies, alongside more selective risk exposure and active position management.” Geopolitics Replaced Central Banks as the Main Market Driver Unlike previous quarters, where trading activity was largely influenced by interest rate expectations and central bank commentary, market sentiment during early 2026 was driven more heavily by geopolitical developments. Price fluctuations across commodities reflected growing concerns surrounding regional instability and global energy flows, keeping oil and gold at the centre of trader attention throughout the quarter. Looking Ahead With geopolitical risks expected to remain elevated, commodities are likely to continue attracting trader attention into Q2, particularly if uncertainty surrounding global energy supply routes persists. Any easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could contribute to lower oil prices and more stable market conditions, while further instability may continue driving volatility across commodity markets. easyMarkets continues to support traders through transparent trading conditions, practical risk-management tools, and ongoing market education designed to help clients navigate changing market environments with confidence. About easyMarkets easyMarkets, founded in 2001, is an award-winning global broker. One of the first to offer an online experience with innovative risk management tools, including Guaranteed Stop Loss with No Slippage* and easyTrade. easyMarkets provides its sizeable clientele with a streamlined, accessible, and flexible trading experience. Offering over 275 tradeable instruments, tight fixed spreads, and 24/5 dedicated support to traders around the world, easyMarkets continues to revolutionize the trading sector by providing unparalleled security and safeguards for client funds and consistently prioritizing client commitment and satisfaction This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior quarter productivity 1.6% revise from 1.8%US Q1 productivity preliminary 0 8% versus 1.0% estimate. Unit labor costs preliminary 2.3% versus 2.6% expected. Prior quarter 4.6% revised up from 4.4%Details from the BLS on Productivity for Q1Nonfarm business labor productivity rose +0.8% in Q1 2026, as output increased +1.5% and hours worked rose +0.7%. Year-over-year productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased +2.9%. Unit labor costs rose +2.3% in Q1, driven by a +3.1% increase in hourly compensation and partially offset by productivity gains. Unit labor costs over the last four quarters increased +1.2%. Real hourly compensation fell -0.5% in Q1, but was still +1.4% higher year-over-year. Labor share of output fell to 54.1%, the lowest level since records began in 1947. Since the start of the current business cycle in Q4 2019, nonfarm productivity has grown at an annualized +2.1% pace, above the prior cycle’s +1.5% rate and just below the long-term average of +2.2%. Manufacturing Sector Manufacturing productivity increased +3.6% in Q1 2026 as output rose +3.3% and hours worked declined -0.4%. Durable goods manufacturing productivity jumped +5.3%, supported by +5.4% output growth. Nondurable manufacturing productivity increased +2.0%, with output up +0.9% and hours worked down -1.0%. Total manufacturing productivity was +1.7% higher than a year ago. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased +2.4% in Q1, reflecting a sharp +6.1% rise in hourly compensation. Over the last year, manufacturing unit labor costs climbed +3.7%. Since Q4 2019, manufacturing productivity has grown at an annualized +0.5% rate, above the prior cycle’s +0.1% pace, but still below the long-term average of +2.1%.Productivity increasing is a positive for GDP. With output for the quarter increasing by 1.5% and hours worked increase by 0.7%, more product was produce in fewer hour. That is still good news despite the fact that it was less than expectations This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior week 189K revised to 190Kinitial jobs claims 200K versus 205K estimate4 week moving average 203.25K vs 207.75K last weekcontinuing claims 1.766M versus 1.800M estimate. Last week 1.776M (revised from 1.785M)4 week moving average 1.790M vs 1.795M last week.The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 25 were in Rhode Island (+2,037), Arkansas (+1,137), Vermont (+348), Massachusetts (+341), and Mississippi (+269),The largest decreases were in New York (-10,952), California (-4,677), Connecticut (-2,276), South Carolina (-1,906), and Kentucky (-1,416)The bottom line is the job market continues to show strength. Now there are winners and losers even in the AI universe. For the buildout, that is likely very good. From the productivity advantage from AI, it is putting people out of work.Fewer layoffs sound good, but it not so good with higher inflation. The strength in the employment and persistently higher than target inflation keeps the Fed out of the picture. Strong jobs data can support stocks, but it also delays rate-cut hopes. Tomorrow, the US jobs report will be released with expectations of nonfarm payroll rising by 65K versus a higher than expected 178K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% (the low for all of 2025 was 4.0%). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As the North American session gets underway, Treasury yields are moving modestly lower, with the 2-year yield down -2.1 basis points at 3.51% and the 10-year yield lower by -2.2 basis points at 4.332%. Oil prices are also under pressure, falling $3.19 or -3.37% to $91.82. Even with today’s decline, crude remains above yesterday’s lows near $89, while continuing to trade below the key $100 level.U.S. equity futures are pointing modestly higher ahead of the open. NASDAQ futures are up 15 points, while S&P futures are higher by roughly 6 points. Both indices closed at record levels yesterday. Dow futures are also higher, implying an opening near the psychologically important 50,000 level. Yesterday, the Dow briefly traded above 50,000 but failed to sustain momentum into the close. The last confirmed close above that milestone came back on February 11, during a stretch where the index posted four consecutive closes above 50,000.Fundamentally, markets continue to trade around developments in the Middle East. Reports yesterday suggested progress toward a one-page memorandum aimed at establishing a cease-fire framework between the U.S. and Iran, helping fuel the strong risk-on move seen across markets. However, major uncertainties remain surrounding uranium enrichment, the future reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader geopolitical framework needed for a lasting agreement. Until there is greater clarity on those issues, concerns over economic disruptions, energy flows, and inflation pressures are likely to remain elevated as President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu continue to emphasize preventing Iran from maintaining nuclear capabilities. Iran is expected to formally respond to the latest U.S. cease-fire demands soon.Separately, President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on May 14–15. The talks are expected to focus on:Trade tensions and tariffsTaiwanSemiconductor and rare-earth restrictionsIran and the Strait of HormuzPotential extensions of the current trade truceAhead of the China meetings, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Japanese officials, with the value of the JPY likely to be a key topic of discussion.In the foreign exchange market this morning, the broader bias remains tilted toward modest U.S. dollar selling. EURUSD and GBPUSD are both higher by around 0.20%, while USDJPY is little changed in narrow trading. Overnight, ECB officials continued to discuss the possibility of additional rate hikes as inflation pressures remain elevated and growth conditions continue to deteriorate.Elsewhere, the broader FX market is also leaning against the dollar:CHF +0.12%CAD +0.05%AUD +0.30%NZD +0.40%In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — from a technical perspective, outlining the bias, the key risk-defining levels, and the upside and downside targets in play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.