Metals have been responding very unusually to the latest and ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict, initially spiking higher but failing to withstand the pressure that followed.What is bothering Metals, as with virtually all other assets on the Market except for Crude and its beloved Petrodollar, is that supply tensions in Energy are known for their long-lasting effects on inflation.And while inflation helps metals shine bright over the long run, when rate expectations are repriced higher, non-yielding assets face trouble.This morning was yet another example of this, with Oil gapping higher at the Globex open and Gold, Silver, and other precious metals turning lower. Current Session in Metals (15:05 ET) – Courtesy of Finviz. March 16, 2026 The weird price action now gets even weirder when you see that a progressive easing in Oil and the US Dollar only briefly helped metals rebound.Gold now fragilely holds around $5,000 (after briefly crossing below the key level), and Silver is doing the same, this time around $80.A few alternatives that have held well are Copper and Platinum, both of which remain strong despite the broader context in the Commodity Market. We will explore their technical levels during tomorrow's Metals update.The million-dollar question remains the same:Are such corrections in the midst of a rough conflict opportunities to buy-dips or not?One risk of being long metals is that if the "fact" of war brings in some profit-taking, players who bought them as Safe-Havens won't have many reasons to hold such positions; that is, as long as the conflict doesn't escalate to something much worse.The broader de-dollarization context remains, but this could already be a trend of the past, given recent reactions to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh (who has yet to be officially nominated) in end-January. Let's tackle the intraday charts and levels for both Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) to see if today's downside fakeout could help the case for some dip-buying or if technical red flags have emerged. Read More:A test of confidence for Stocks – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookMonetary policy in focus, WTI hovers around $100 & week aheadMarkets Today: Chinese data positive as Middle East conflict remains tense. Oil steady, FTSE 100 consolidate. Canada CPI up nextGold 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Gold 4H Chart. March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Pre-FOMC flows can be tricky and this is exactly what is arising from this price action.Having broken the key $5,100 Pivot, technicals for the metal are now increasingly more mixed, but are still further from bearish territory.This provides decent scenarios for breakout plays:Rebounding from here would maintain the $5,000 to $5,200 rangeSome bullish plays above the 200-period MA ($5,080) would be sensicalAny break below $5,000 however could quickly open the door towards the Mid-Feb lows around $4,850Levels of interest for Gold trading:Support Levels:$5,000 Mini-Support$4,850 to $4,900 Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:$5,100 Major Pivot (broken, Bullish above)$5,250 March Resistance Zone (+/- $25)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Silver 4H Chart. March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Silver is now looking more grim than its Yellow-counterpart.Having failed to hold the upper bound of its 2025 bull channel, the precious metal is now well into a mid-term bearish momentum – It's lower bound is at $66 for now, close to the February lows. For short-term traders, keep a close eye on the intraday bear channel that has recently arisen.Breaking $80 on the session could bring more downside ahead.Levels of interest for Silver trading:Support Levels:Pivotal Support $80 to $82 (testing)February Momentum Support $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Support $70 to $722025 Channel lows $66Resistance Levels:Intraday Channel highs $81.50Main Pivot $84.50 Mini Resistance $87.50 $96.47 March highsKey psychological resistance $100 to $104Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are now bouncing much higher as Oil retreatsParticipants are reacting positively to the few ships that successfully crossed the Strait of HormuzExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 We are now entering the third week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict that has seen thousands of missile and drone attacks all around the Middle East, and sentiment is now seemingly easing.To learn more about the conflict's progression, I invite you to check out this piece.Market Participants woke up to smoother price action in Crude Oil as weekend risk hedges unwound, and the situation hasn't worsened since.Flows in Financial Markets tend to move heavily on the repricing of expectations – so when uncertainty sets in, it tends to come with a nastier appetite for risk.This is precisely what led to Friday's risk-off session, pointing back to today's test of confidence – but even with the ongoing storm, uncertainty clouds are somewhat clearing.Major US Indexes are all up around 1%, which adds to the pre-existing inverse correlation with Oil prices – a trend that today is a boon for Wall Street. Oil and Dow Jones Negative Correlation. March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The reason for such a rebound was the successful crossing not only for two Indian LNG tankers (against the return of 183 Iranian sailors), but more particularly from the successful crossing of a first tanker in provenance from Abu Dhabi through the Strait of Hormuz.Its route was kind of peculiar, particularly as mines have apparently been placed throughout the Strait.Oil eased from its $102 gap higher at the Globex open to $93.50 lows but has rebounded in the last hour.It will be a bumpy ride for risk-appetite, as the short-term rebound in WTI coincides with a swift correction in the Market-open buying flows.Today, as the rest of this week, will act as a test of confidence for Stock Markets and Energy Commodities – Will disruptions continue or has uncertainty reached a climax? Let's spot where today's hesitant price action is implying by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:The Financial Damage of War –  Markets Weekly OutlookChart alert: WTI crude oil rally almost reached $102.25, risk of minor setback towards $88.36Markets Today: Chinese data positive as Middle East conflict remains tense. Oil steady, FTSE 100 consolidate. Canada CPI up nextRBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcomeCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 16, 2026 The current market heatmap is showing a more positive picture, with timid but consistent rebound across all sectors (except for struggling Telecoms).Electronic technology and transportations are leading to the upside – Tech and Finance remain the two most interesting sectors to watch in recent trading.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA has now formed a Double Bottom at its War lows, a positive sign for dip-buyers.Since, the short-term outlook is now bullish, but the mid-term outlook can only rebound if bulls manage to push above 47,600 – The current outlook is one of cautious recovery.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 50-period MA 47,105 (immediate test)Key Pivot 47,000 to 47,200 Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,000 (bull above)48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsCurrent War lows Mini-Support 46,300 and Double Bottom46,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is once again showing how strong its 24,000 to 25,000 range is holding.More particularly, after reaching its 24,250 support, bulls have formed a tight bull channel. This points to a test of the 25,000 range resistance; however the action will have to extend beyond the 2H 50-period MA (24,734).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels2H 50-period MA (24,734) & Mini-intraday Pivot 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,200 (War lows)24,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (Monday drop)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is following very similar technical patterns in this Weekly open, forming a tight bull channel and testing its 2H 50-period MA (6,722).Breaking a closing above would relaunch hopes for a test of the 6,800 Pivotal Resistance.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels2H 50-period MA (6,722) – Immediate testPivot 6,730 to 6,750 Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800 Past Week Resistance 6,820 to 6,840Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Key Support (testing)Overnight lows 6,6066,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning was another show of how Black Gold is playing tricks on the Market and will keep doing so for the time being.After a brutal weekly open, sentiment and risk appetite had eased, with Oil yo-yoing between $120 and $80, despite remaining elevated, its price had stabilized throughout the following sessions, but, as warned in our prior WTI analysis, the stability was ephemeral.As more and more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz throughout the week, Crude broke out of its temporary ~$80 range. Today could have somewhat eased the pressure, but the petrol Bulls came right back to fuel the Commodity. WTI 15M Chart – March 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Read More:Jet fuel market faces extreme supply tensionsAre we witnessing the Crypto dawn? – Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookMarkets Today: Dollar and Oil Dominate as Traders Brace for US data barrage, FTSE 100 breaks key support zone The issue is that Oil rallies are hurting virtually every other part of the Market – Except for its beloved Petrodollar, back on top of the FX board.Participants are widely disregarding the recent softer prints in US data, particularly with the combined softer JOLTS, NFP, CPI and Core PCE releases.Traders are only focusing on Oil's Inflationary impact for now – Keep track of upcoming data as flows could at some point turn toward economic concerns.Next Wednesday's FOMC could also clarify the thinking. Daily Performance in FX – USD Back on Top – Courtesy of Finviz Pre-open Equity Futures had been bouncing higher, similarly as Cryptocurrencies – but since retreated. Nasdaq 30M Chart – March 13, 2026. Source: TradingView As long as prices don't return back above the past session's highs ($98.20), expect hesitant bearish action – Nasdaq is leading US Indexes to the downside.Watch for the 24,400 Support lows. Breaking it could trigger further downside towards 24,000, a small mean-reversion attempt is ongoing.Keep in mind that pre-weekend hedging could trigger some momentum in WTI (Oil) buying this afternoon.Metals are getting annihilated Daily Performance in Metals – Courtesy of Finviz With the Current Fed pricing for cuts back below 20 bps for the entire year (only!), the yielding assets aren't faring well.Metals are hedges against inflation on the long-term, but in the short-run, they tend to get repriced from higher expectations – exactly what's happening today.In case you missed it, check out our latest Silver in-depth piece right here.Discover: Silver (XAG/USD) rejects triangle formation from Iran War – Breakout scenariosSafe Trades and keep your eyes on WTI & Strait of Hormuz news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Major US stock indexes slid 1% due to a volatile combination of escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East and mounting jitters within the $2 trillion private credit market.Crude oil prices surged toward $100 per barrel after tanker attacks in Iraqi waters and Iranian threats to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.The Dow Jones index has fallen below its 20, 50, and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the 20-day and 50-day SMAs sloping downward, signaling a firmly bearish short-to-medium-term trend.46660 support may be key to a short-term bounce.Most Read: Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why Bitcoin's recovery still lacks the ingredients for a decisive bullish turnMajor US stock indexes slid 1% on Thursday as a volatile mix of geopolitical instability and domestic credit concerns shook investor confidence.The primary catalyst was a sharp spike in crude oil prices, which surged toward the $100-per-barrel threshold following reports of two tankers set ablaze in Iraqi waters. These incidents, attributed to apparent Iranian strikes, are part of a broader wave of attacks targeting energy and transport infrastructure across the Middle East. The escalation was further underscored by a defiant stance from Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who suggested that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery should remain closed as a strategic lever of pressure.This supply-side threat has effectively reignited fears of persistent inflation, hitting the financial sector particularly hard as traders brace for a potentially more aggressive economic environment.Comments late last night by Iranian military officials about potential attacks on companies in the Gulf which support the US military may also be weighing on markets in early trade.Compounding these worries, Wall Street is also closely monitoring mounting "jitters" within the private credit market, adding another layer of risk to an already fragile trading session.S&P 500 Heatmap Source: TradingView Private credit fears on the rise The $2 trillion private credit market is facing intense scrutiny as a series of recent defaults has sparked widespread concern among investors. This anxiety was amplified by a warning from the Swiss private equity firm Partners Group, which projected that default rates in the sector could potentially double over the next few years.These mounting jitters triggered a significant sell-off in the financial sector, with the S&P 500 financials index dropping 1.5%.The impact was felt acutely among major institutional players, particularly after Morgan Stanley saw its shares tumble 4.3% following a decision to limit redemptions at one of its private credit funds.This move follows similar restrictive actions taken by Blackstone and BlackRock earlier this month, both of which saw their stock prices decline by more than 1%. Further rattling the market, JPMorgan Chase moved to reduce the valuations of certain loans tied to private credit funds, contributing to broader losses for banking giants like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, which both fell by more than 3%.Oil reserves release only a temporary fix The International Energy Agency said that the world is facing the biggest oil supply disruption ever. This comes as the IEA announced a coordinated emergency release of up to 400m barrels.It’s a record amount, eclipsing the 182m barrel emergency release from 2022. We're still waiting for the IEA to provide full details of the release.There are still concerns regarding the IEA-coordinated release, especially about the speed at which this oil will reach the market and whether it will be enough to tie up the market until we see oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.US Energy Secretary Wright speaking late on Wednesday said that the US will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It will take about 120 days to deliver the fuel.According to ING research, this works out to a US release of around 1.4m b/d. If you assume a similar timeline for other countries, that works out to 3.3m b/d- far short of the supply losses we are seeing from the Persian Gulf.Either way, these releases are not a long-term fix and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the probability of higher oil prices and supply shortfalls increase.Wall Street outlook moving forward Risk assets are likely to remain under pressure the longer the conflict drags on. The economic outlook has shifted with concerns growing around supply of various products from fertilizers to helium etc.This is reflected by Goldman Sachs cutting their US economic outlook and raising their Oil forecast for the second time in little over a week.According to standardized economic models, a sustained 10% increase in oil prices typically adds 0.2 percentage points to the headline inflation rate and 0.04 points to core inflation. This same 10% surge generally drags down GDP growth by a tenth of a percentage point, though the severity of this slowdown can be mitigated by the productivity of domestic energy producers.Beyond energy costs, the economy is also grappling with the restrictive weight of tighter financial conditions. Research indicates that for every 1 percentage point of tightening in the financial conditions index, GDP growth is reduced by a full point over the subsequent year. Currently, Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index has already tightened by 0.2 percentage points, signaling a measurable cooling effect on the broader economy.Technical Analysis - Dow Jones From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones recovered admirably after the weekend gap down which saw the index open some 500 points lower than Fridays close.The entire gap was closed on monday followed by another day of gains on Tuesday but risk sentiment has since waned as markets begin to expect a drawn out conflict in the Middle East.This led to yesterdays significant selloff which saw the Dow shed around 1000 points and print a massive bearish engulfing candle.The price has fallen below its 20, 50, and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Notably, the 20-day SMA (light blue) and 50-day SMA (purple) are beginning to slope downward, signaling that the short-to-medium-term trend is firmly bearish.However, the index is holding above a key support area for now at the 46660 handle with a daily close above this handle opening up a possible short-term bounce.At this stage though, the technicals may be at the mercy of the fundamental factors driving markets and need to be put in perspective.Any significant developments on the geopolitical front could lead to a drastic change of the technical outlook as well.Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 12, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Market is turning bleak in this morning's action as Oil rallies to fresh highs yet again.Our past-day Oil analysis saw rangebound action to potentially turn into a grind higher, which realized quicker than most expected!The commodity is up close to 10% on the day, slowly but surely extending to the $98-$100 Resistance.This occurs as attacks on tankers around the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are now multiplying. WTI Oil 1H Chart (11:16) – March 12, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is forming a bull-channel in the immediate action – Its top is located around $101.30 so that could be a target to the upside.Buyers are attempting a break of the channel's mid-line ($96.55) – A key area for momentum.Momentum buyers will want to see if the 20-Hour MA ($92.68) holds.The recent rise in Oil has gradually priced out Fed Cuts for 2026 due to inflationary fears. There is now less than one full cut priced in for the year!The FOMC meeting is approaching fast (next Wednesday, March 18). Current Fed Rate Cut Pricing to the December 2026 Meeting– FedWatch Tool This is hurting Stock Markets extensively on the session, Nasdaq is leading to the Downside down -1.50% – update coming up soon! Stock Index and Energy Commodity Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Safe Trades, keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Ongoing War flows have been very different from what the trading and investing world has been accustomed to.Safe-haven assets like Metals (particularly Gold and Silver) and Bonds have not seen any consistent demand. At the same time, Stock Markets and risk sentiment in general have remained very solid despite stagflationary fears.Only Oil and, consequently, the Petrodollar, have managed to grab consistent attention and generate persistent trends.One question remains for Metals aficionados – Where is the flight to demand towards them? Silver and Global Conflicts since 1970s – Source: TradingView Their previous run higher throughout their borderline insane performance from mid-2025 to January 2026 could explain exhausted buyers.When people get heavily positioned in an asset class, buyers run out of bullets (to buy more), supply increases to capture the higher values and it distorts the previous stock-shortage that led to previous price increases.this heavy positioning was outlined in the recent Bank of America survey.As a matter of fact, the ongoing War could be what is holding Silver and Metals prices at current levels – After the Late January price tumble, their correction suddenly stalled at a similar time that WTI began to rally and the ongoing US-Iran War began to enter Market discussions.So that could open the door for a large correction in the event of a war resolution! Metals performance since last February – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 Still, the global economy is largely different than it was just a few years ago, with the second round of Trump Trade Wars, de-globalization and persistent rise of new conflicts.It wouldn't be surprising to never see $20 Silver prices again, but $50 is not completely out of the picture – In the meantime, traders can profit from the hesitant price action by playing ongoing consolidation around the asset classes.We will dive into a Silver multi-timeframe analysis to spot the current range in the Metal and explore potential breakout levels. Let's get right into it. Read More:Markets resist and volatility fades – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateBitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why Bitcoin's recovery still lacks the ingredients for a decisive bullish turnChart alert: WTI crude oil resumes uptrend above $88.00 despite historical IEA stockpile releaseSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart Silver Daily Chart, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver has now remained in a $80 to $96 range since the end of February, holding the top of its 2025 (broken) upward Channel as Support – A major technical indicator to track bull strength.RSI momentum has died down in the higher timeframe, indicating current equilibrium around current prices – this confirms after the failed breakdown in early March and consequent failed breakout. This provides quality indications for a rangebound price action.Let's take a closer look4H Chart and Technical Levels Silver 4H Chart, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, bears are entering at the highs of the triangle formation, pointing to interesting tests coming ahead:Breaking the $84.50 support trendline (from the 2025 Channel) would hint at the $80 SupportHolding the support would confirm the range towards a $90 reboundBreaking it however could lead to retesting the $70 2026 SupportRebounding on the Support trendline could lead to an imminent rebound towards the $90 to $92 Resistance (less probable with current RSI conditions)Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:$87 Session highs (Mini-Resistance)Key Range Resistance $90 to $92Higher Timeframe Major Resistance $90 to $95$96.47 March highsSupport Levels:Triangle Support $84.50 (short-term bearish below)2025 Record Pivot $80 to $82Key Momentum Support $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)$50 to $54 Major Support1H Chart Silver 1H Chart, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the hesitation also spreading to the shorter timeframes, traders could await for either:A break below the mini-support $84.50 to play a breakdown to $80Ongoing selling should take the action there soon!A break above the daily $87.50 to play a breakout to $92Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin is in a "transition phase," consolidating below $70,000 after retreating from $71,000, however the recovery lacks the "ingredients of a decisive bullish turn".Despite accelerating institutional inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the average ETF holder is currently "underwater" (negative MVRV ratio), interpreted as "capitulation-like conditions" for recent institutional entrants.On-chain network activity shows large-scale capital moving, but engagement metrics for the broader retail network, such as active addresses and transaction fees, remain quiet.For a sustained bullish expansion, Bitcoin must decisively reclaim the primary overhead resistance at the True Market Mean ($79000)Most Read: US Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsBitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a classic transition phase as it navigates between macroeconomic pressure and resilient technical demand. After a brief surge toward the $71,000 mark, the premier cryptocurrency has retreated to consolidate just below the psychologically significant $70,000 level. Source: TradingView Bitcoin is down around 4.58% this week with red being the dominant color on the crypto heatmap. It shouldn't be a surprise as the general market feeling is still one of unease as haven demand remains strong. The US dollar has benefitted from this which adds further headwinds for Bitcoins recovery.What does the on-chain data tell us? According to on-chain data an analysis from Glassnode, Bitcoins price remains bounded between two critical valuation anchors: the Realized Price (~$54.9k), which acts as a long-term support floor, and the True Market Mean (~$79k), which currently serves as the primary overhead resistance.While the market has managed to break back above the psychologically significant $70,000 barrier, Glassnode warns that the recovery lacks the "ingredients of a decisive bullish turn." Instead, the environment is defined by improving internals at the margins, while broader conviction and capital flows remain soft.This is reflected by the swift drop after Bitcoin reclaimed the $70000 handle.Spot demand and ETF dynamics One of the most constructive signals is the activity within the US Spot Bitcoin ETF complex. Net inflows have accelerated, rising from $776 million to $934 million weekly, alongside a significant jump in trading volume. However, this institutional demand carries a nuanced signal.The ETF MVRV ratio recently dropped into negative territory, meaning the average ETF holder is currently "underwater" on their position. Glassnode interprets this as "capitulation-like conditions" for recent institutional entrants, suggesting that while they are continuing to buy, they are doing so under considerable price stress.In the broader spot market, demand is showing early signs of recovery, but it remains structurally weak. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a measure of net buying vs. selling pressure, showed a rebound as buyers began to absorb sell-side liquidity.Despite this, the lack of aggressive "follow-through" indicates that many participants are still waiting for clearer directional cues before committing significant capital. Source: Glassnode On-chain activity On-chain network activity presents a mixed picture. While transfer volume saw a healthy 23.7% increase, other engagement metrics like active addresses and transaction fees have slipped. This divergence suggests that while large-scale capital is moving (likely institutional or whale-tier transfers), the broader retail network remains quiet and disinterested.Derivatives: hedging vs. speculation The derivatives market reflects the general uncertainty of the spot market. Options traders have become notably less defensive; the volatility spread has narrowed, and the 25-delta skew has declined. This indicates that the "panic hedging" seen in previous weeks is fading, and traders are beginning to price in a more balanced near-term outlook.In the futures market, Open Interest has climbed, signaling a modest rebuild of leverage. However, the funding rates have turned sharply negative, falling below the statistical low band. This suggests a surge in demand for short exposure, highlighting that leveraged traders are far from reaching a bullish consensus.Technical Outlook: The path ahead Despite the retreat below $70,000, the technical outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than bearish.Long-term holders (whales) and institutional players appear to be "buying the dip."The formation of an accumulation cluster near the range midpoint is a positive sign, but its intensity is currently lower than the levels that preceded previous major bull runs, per Glassnode data.If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $72000 level, it would likely trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out). However such a move may prove temporary as the one we just had.For a sustained bullish expansion to occur, Bitcoin needs to decisively reclaim the True Market Mean ($79000) and see a return of "hot capital", speculative interest that has been notably absent.Until then, the market remains on "unsteady ground," showing the potential to bounce but lacking the aggregate demand required to break out of its defensive structure.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 11, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are sending mixed signals despite positive CPI reportTraders will await for further clues and news in order to move forwardExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The tone in Financial Markets has now eased despite the ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict, now in its 12th day – Stock Indexes are still failing to generate traction, currently victim of strengthening selling flows.The almost-perfect inverse correlation between Stock Markets and oil prices has now stalled, with Crude volatility also coming to a brutal halt.It is surprising to see Markets disregard the pretty positive CPI report (coming in at 2.4%, as expected), but this points to a new dynamic: Current progress in inflation won't help if inflation expectations, rising from higher Oil prices, remain high.This further emphasizes Surveys like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (released Friday at 10:00 A.M.) and the NY Fed's Inflation Expectation Survey.Rate cut pricing will also be particularly tied to the Core PCE numbers (next release also on Friday, 8:30 A.M.), the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge.As noted in our fresh Oil analysis, the commodity is pointing to a more rangebound price action ahead – but any significant breakout, even if it is slow and persistent, will dampen risk appetite until a clear resolution of the conflict.Still, the past few sessions of rebounds have helped US benchmarks recover into their higher time-frame ranges – Keep a close eye on immediate action as sentiment takes a turn lower by the minute.Keep in mind that an ongoing trend is developing around Financials, particularly Private Asset Managers, which are seeing waves of liquidations and a much tighter lending Market – This damaged risk-sentiment a few Fridays ago and could have a much wider impact if this spreads further. Let's spot where today's hesitant price action is implying by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Oil surges again to $86 as Iran attacks ships in Hormuz – Intraday AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsMarkets Today: IEA eyes record breaking oil reserve release as US CPI looms. FTSE 100 falls at 200-day MACurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:29 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 11, 2026 The current Market picture is quite mixed, with many sectors and key names unchanged while some others are bleeding, like Financials, Retail Trade and Consumer Non-Durables.On the other hand, US Fertilizers, Consumer Durables, Energy stocks and Transportation are rebounding – The Green Sheep out of them all however really is Oracle, flying higher by 10% since its past day wonderful earnings report.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is now struggling after rejecting the upper bound of its descending channel.Reactions to its lower bound will be very key (see on chart) – As prices are reaching the Major 47,000 - 47,200 Support again, a failure to rebound from here would hurt bull prospects even further.Expect a more bearish price action ahead in that event.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsFriday Pivot 47,500 to 47,650 (50-Hour MA 47,619)Pivotal Resistance at 48,000 (Past day highs)48,400 key level to break for continued reboundNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsKey Support 47,000 to 47,200Monday futures drop Mini-Support 46,30046,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now rejecting the 25,000 which provides some bearish signs for upcoming action.Now crossing below the its 50-Hour MA (24,930), accompanied by an intraday double top, it would not be surprising to see a quick test of the 24,500 Support area.Failing to rebound there would lead to the 24,000 Support.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels50-Hour MA 24,928Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (Monday drop)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now turning bearish after yesterday's top rejection, particularly with the latest hour of profit-taking – The RSI is now crossing below the neutral line.Breaking the 6,730 should see continuation to the downside. If 6,700 breaks, expect to see a quick test of the Monday lows (6,579).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,770 to 6,800 Momentum PivotPast Day Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (2H 200-MA)Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support LevelsMini-Support 6,730 to 6,750 (immediate test, bearish if break!)6,680 to 6,700 Key SupportMonday lows 6,5796,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil volatility consolidates but after yesterday's drop, sellers could not sustain lower pricesWTI attempted a bounce, which points to further range-bound action aheadExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Yesterday saw a major correction in crude prices, particularly given that it had traded near $120 just two days ago – But it could be reaching its end.As noted in our past-day Oil analysis, it seems we are now past the largest waves of volatility, with 30% up-and-down moves often translating into much calmer price action afterward. The same happened in Silver at the end of January.Volatility tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it quickly exhausts itself! And when it does, Markets seem pretty dull.It's a weird feeling when even today's 2% move higher feels like nothing really changed.After dipping to $76 in early afternoon yesterday, following verbal intervention from G7 nations, the commodity quickly bounced back to higher levels as Iran upped their threats:After the latest mines in Hormuz intel, Iran struck three ships that attempted to cross the Strait – The headlines led to a quick bounce towards $87 before the price action eased again.This Reuters piece provides great detail into the current situation – It should be free to access.Despite the ceaseless air strikes and damage to its navy, Iran manages to ship millions of barrels of crude to China, which would explain the growing number of cargoes going through, while Gulf shipments remain in peril. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic – Source: MacroBond In other Market news, US CPI just came at 2.4% Y/Y, a better report compared to last month's rise. Traders will be focusing on this month's Core PCE (the Fed's favorite measure) release to see if the ease spreads towards there.The next FOMC meeting is already coming up next week, and a cut is only priced at 0.7%(!) – Participants will focus on forward communications.Let's dive right into the key intraday charts for WTI (US) Oil to spot where we stand and what comes next for the commodity. Read More:Markets Today: IEA eyes record breaking oil reserve release as US CPI looms. FTSE 100 falls at 200-day MAUS Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsChart alert: EUR/USD bullish reversal, watch the 1.1673 upside trigger level as US CPI loomsUS Oil Intraday Time-frame AnalysisWTI 4H Chart WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 11, 2026. Source: TradingView The price action has been largely dying off within a still large $83 to $88 range.Despite the progress in the military conflict, as long as the war continues, there aren't many fundamental reasons for Oil to drag lower. It wouldn't be surprising to see the current consolidation holding for a longer time.The longer the war lasts, the higher the chances of a slow grind higher, so keep that in mind if you spot a progressive uptrend forming again.Let's look at further details.WTI 1H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 11, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking closer, we see how clear the current range is – most candles are stabilizing within the consolidation highs (~$88) and lows (~$83).Both directions could be played but it is wise to remind that any flash news could lead to sudden spikes – It feels like downward spikes are more probable after recent higher rejection (on any advancement/peace news)Key levels are bolded.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels4H 50-Period MA $88.00$89 to $91 Channel and Range highs (Bullish above)Resistance $93.50 to $95$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$82.80 to $84 Range lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past session lows $76.50Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main SupportSeptember 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $682025 lows $55.00WTI 15M Chart WTI Oil 15M Chart – March 11, 2026. Source: TradingView For intraday traders, keep a close eye on the range extremes and 15M 50 & 200-period Moving Averages (acting as intraday support and resistance respectively)With prices bouncing from the range lows, check out if sellers come back at the resistance to attempt small mean reversion attempts.Do keep a close eye on a potential slow but progressive grind higher as days go by without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz! For this, spot a clear higher low on the 1H timeframe. This isn't the case yet. Safe Trades, keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bullish technical breakout: The AUD/USD has finally broken above the 0.7140 major resistance—a level tested multiple times since 2022—reaching a 52-week high near 0.7185, signalling the start of a fresh bullish impulsive uptrend.Macro catalysts supporting AUD: Strength in commodity prices driven by the US–Iran war 2026 and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates to 4.10% have boosted demand for the Australian dollar.Key levels to watch: Near-term bullish momentum remains intact above 0.7080 support, with upside targets at 0.7246–0.7266 and 0.7335–0.7350. A break below 0.7080 would weaken the bullish outlook and risk a pullback toward 0.7050–0.7030. The price actions of the AUD/USD have finally staged a bullish breakout above its “stubborn” major resistance at 0.7140 (11 August 2022/2 August 2023 swing highs) after it tested twice in February 2026.The AUD/USD has extended its gains by 0.8% in today’s Asia session (Wednesday, 11 March 2026) to record a new year-to-date and 52-week intra-session high at 0.7185.The firmer AUD/USD has been supported by the ongoing bullish trend in commodity prices due to global oil supply disruption arising from the ongoing US-Iran war.Secondly, the short-term interest rate market in Australia is expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its tightening monetary policy stance with an increased probability of its second interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to come as soon on the next meeting on 17 March 2026 to raise the cash policy rate to 4.10% to negate inflationary expectations from jumping higher due to firmer oil prices.AU/US implied future policy interest rate curves spread supports a hawkish RBA Fig. 1: AU/US monthly implied future policy interest rate curves spread as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The spread/differential between the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for Australia and the US (derived from short-term interest rate futures) has risen steadily and shifted upwards (see Fig. 1).The spread for April 2026 now stands at 0.42%, an increase of 13 bps from 0.29% recorded three months ago, and the spread for May 2026 increases to 0.54%, a similar increase of 13 bps from 0.41% three months ago.Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD – Bullish momentum supports a fresh impulsive up move sequence Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Today’s bullish breakout above the 0.7140 major resistance suggests that the AUD/USD has exited from a 4-week choppy range configuration in place since 12 February 2026, in turn, igniting a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term and major uptrend phases.In the near-term, watch the 0.7080 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the minor bullish impulsive up move sequence view for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7246/7266 and 0.7335/7350 (See Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below 0.7080 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 0.7050/7030 (the pull-back support of the former minor descending channel resistance from 27 February 2026 high). Below 0.7030 exposes further near-term weakness towards 0.6944 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on AUD/USD The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline, which suggests that short-term bullish momentum remains intact within its minor uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).The daily 2-year Australian sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen to 0.85% from 0.75% a week ago, in turn, supporting the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks formed a decent bottom after a rough 10-day stretchWith the ongoing rebound still timid, we attempt to spot if the rebound will pursueExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The tone in markets has eased significantly after yesterday's extreme price action Oil.As explored in our past week's analysis, Global Equities (and from its looks, the entire Market) have strictly followed an inverse correlation with WTI prices. Dow Jones and Oil Relative Performance since Beginning March – Source: TradingView After breaking significant Support levels, the commodity's price correction has largely eased off the pressure seen in Global assets.Indeed, rising Oil prices have impacts on virtually all sectors of production, and with Stagflation fears following closely, its prior uptrend has been hurting rate-cut prospects – and even worse fears.Despite the ongoing correction in WTI prices, there is potential for it to rise again. As long as Crude doesn't regain its Sunday night spikes, a large Market panic should be avoided, but any prolonged rebound would require an actual resolving of the conflict.The Strait of Hormuz de facto closure remains the key inflexion point; hence, traders will have to keep track of Oil movement to get better clues on Sentiment.Any rebound in the energy commodity will dampen bullish prospects! Let's spot where the ongoing rebound could take the action by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:WTI (Oil) forms a tight range after Trump's comments – Oil Dynamics and Intraday AnalysisChart alert: Hang Seng Index recovered at 24,765, bulls need to break above 26,350Is the Petrodollar trade over after Trump's comment? EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:42 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 10, 2026 The current session's heatmap is looking much better than the previous. Nevertheless, ongoing rebounds are quite timid and local.Tech services, which had outperformed during the overall panic, is now seeing large profit-taking, leaving the spot back to producer manufacturing and industrials.Electronics however are seeing a decent price action from the relative ease in delivery expectations. Watch out for sentiment as the current rebound resembles more like bearish relief rather than a proper bull-case.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA has rebounded swiftly back into its longer-run range (47,000 to 50,000), but even with bulls winning the current battle, they will have to show further resilience.The 48,000 Pivotal resistance is seeing immediate test, and with Oil prices forming a short-term bottom, Stock market resilience will have to be tracked closely. Watch out for the RSI Momentum top!Breaking 48,400 would assist the bullish case further.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPivotal Resistance at 48,000 (immediate test)48,400 key level to break for continued reboundNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsFriday Pivot 47,500 to 47,650 (short-term support, Bearish below!)Key Support 47,000 to 47,200Monday futures drop Mini-Support 46,30046,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has seen a similar strong rebound towards its key 25,000 to 25,200 resistance zone.Bulls will be facing a key test ahead, as the RSI momentum forms a double top:Failing to break 25,200 could bring back a more bearish-range price action.Breaking above the level however would help to regain at least 25,500 and break the bearish formation.Keep a close eye on WTI prices as any rise there could lead to a break lower (24,500 is the next key Support).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (Monday drop)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is seeing similar conditions, with bulls managing to regain the higher timeframe range (6,700 to 7,000).Nevertheless, to regain hopes for all-time highs, prices will have to break the Imminent resistance zone from 6,820 to 6,840.Rejecting current levels would point to a test of 6,700Such bearish regain would confirm on a break and 1H close below 6,800.Breaking above the 2H 200-MA helps bullish prospectsA rebound to all-time highs would confirm on a daily close above 6,900S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (2H 200-MA)Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support Levels6,770 to 6,800 Momentum PivotMini-Support 6,730 to 6,7506,680 to 6,700 Key Support Overnight lows 6,5796,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil just concluded a historic session yesterday, with 30% moves up and down in a crazy rollercoasterWTI is the subject of global fears, as real-economy supply shocks get priced further, but prices are stabilizingExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodityYesterday's historic session in Oil Once again, Black Gold found itself in the middle of chaotic price action, with yesterday's session breaking records across all types of volatility.The Globex open saw an 11% gap (from $92 to $103) that quickly turned into a 30% squeeze towards $120 – That lasted from 18:00 on Sunday to 22:00. Shortly after, G7 Leaders united to prepare for the potential release of Strategic Reserves, which aimed to calm Markets significantly and worked well, bringing commodity prices back to their weekly opening levels. Shortly after, G7 Leaders united to prepare for the potential release of Strategic Reserves, which aimed to calm Markets significantly and worked well, bringing commodity prices back to their weekly opening levels. The Reserves will not be released just yet, but the comments helped soothe the overall panic.President Trump added more fuel to the volatility fire by saying during a private ABC interview that the war could be resolved "very soon". The issue with this comment is that it was quickly taken out of context and led to a $12 drop in WTI prices, but erased some of this progress overnight. WTI Oil 5M Chart from March 9, 2026. Source: TradingView So what's the update? Unfortunately, despite Trump's optimistic comments in yesterday's late afternoon, the War won't conclude so easily.The President's advisors have urged him to prepare a concrete exit plan – while military progress has been advancing well, there are still clouds over the proper way to achieve lasting peace or even the desired regime change.The anxiety will remain if no clear plan is made, with attacks on civilian infrastructures all over the Middle East continuing. After 11 days of conflict, it may be too early to assume the counterattacks will continue indefinitely, but some clarity would be very welcome.The Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure, with some thin traffic through, but this pales in comparison to usual flows as drone and ballistic missile threats remain elevated. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic since February 27 – Source: Bloomberg To respond to the large drops in maritime shipments, Saudi Aramco signalled that they were ramping up Oil flows in the East-West pipeline to full capacity and they are slowly getting there.However, this would only add to 7M barrels/day which doesn't come close to the usual 20M bbl/day going through Hormuz in normal activity – The world's largest energy-commodity production firm mentioned some 180M barrels of Oil getting affected by the ongoing conflict.Furthermore, the IRGC makes sure to not only strike civilian infrastructures but also Oil and Natural Gas production facilities.With volatility now largely slowing down, let's explore a few key charts and scenarios for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for potential breakout levels. Read More:The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?Is the Petrodollar trade over after Trump's comment? EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewOil gaps lower to $83 after a wild session! Trump – "The War could be over soon"US Oil Intraday Time-frame AnalysisWTI 4H Chart WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now returning within its past week's upward channel, having largely cut off its squeeze-momentum.This implies that the largest volatility spikes are now behind us.Even with the 4H timeframe RSI falling, there is still a decent probability that Oil will grind higher towards $100, particularly if the conflict drags on further – For now, momentum remains more neutral than anything.Let's look at further details.WTI 2H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 2H Chart – March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Due to its recent volatility, WTI has established many Support and Resistance levels and they require flexibility as they have been changing by the minute. The key levels are bolded. To check out different trading scenarios, I invite you to check out the 30M chart just below.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$89 to $91 Channel and potential range highsApril 2024 Top Major Momentum Pivot $86.50 to $88.00Resistance $93.50 to $95 (Bullish above!)$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$82.80 to $84 Daily Support and channel lows (immediate test)2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main SupportSeptember 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $682025 lows $55.00WTI 30M Chart WTI Oil 30M Chart – March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now well within its ascending channel, hence this provides essential trading levels to keep in check:Coming at the lows of the channel, selling exhaustion could point to a short-term rebound towards $90 – look at the 30M 50-period MAA range between $82 to $90 could well be taking place, so look at whether the move remains contained.Breaking the daily support ($82.80) and Channel would point to a test of the $76 SupportAny break above $90 with high momentum and volume would imply a test of $95; $100 could then get reached fast depending on the news. Safe Trades, a restful weekend, and keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (09/03/2026): To start the week, we join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing skyrocketing oil pricing amidst tensions in the Middle East and a scheduled G7 meeting to discuss the release of held crude reserves, as well as the fallout across financial markets. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks have significantly gapped lower from weekend angst but are attempting a reboundParticipants are now pricing a prolonged US-Israel-Iran war and more disruptive effects from the conflict.Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The US-Iran-Israel war is into its second week, and bombardments all over the Middle East are continuing ceaselessly, despite marked progress in the number of drones and ballistic missiles launched by Iran.Numerous neighboring countries have now seen a faster pace of retaliation, including Azerbaijan and Turkey. Iran is escalating its responses against Gulf countries, multiplying attacks on Oil facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, which has brought a historic move in the commodity.Black Gold gapped from $92 to $103 at the Globex open and quickly bounced toward $120 as thin volume and heavy buying inflows triggered a fresh squeeze. WTI (US) Oil 4H Chart. March 9, 2026 (11:24 A.M.) – Source: TradingView The overnight spike to 4-year highs came with significant angst, as global assets sagged from continued stagflation pricing, with safe-haven assets like Gold and US Treasuries also taking significant hits. S&P 500 futures were down 165 points at one point, the largest drop since October 2025 – and this is not such a common move!Luckily, the Market-shaking rise did not extend further. Oil is now down 19% from its highs! (but remains about 5% above its Friday close)The reversal brought a flurry of dip-buying across all assets, which initially suffered from the futures session's movements. US Equities are now looking to fill their wide overnight gaps in an impressive rebound.However, some doubts remain: Stagflation fears could get extended as long as Oil remains above $85 per barrel; as the War extends and is now projected to last about five more weeks, the prolonged expectations add to further concerns of a more.Iran hasn't shown signs of de-escalation, having also named Ali Khamenei's successor, his son Mojtaba Khamenei. The US and Israel also won't stop until "unconditional surrender", hence, tracking their progress against IRGC targets is key to attempting to time a resolution to the conflict.The Strait of Hormuz de facto closure remains the key inflexion point, so traders should watch its traffic (or lack thereof) closely. Let's spot where the ongoing rebound could take the action by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Markets Today: Brent crude futures surge 14%, STOXX 600 hits two-month lows as FTSE 100 approaches 10000 psychological levelChart alert: WTI crude oil key short-term support at $102.25 for another 20% rallyMarkets Weekly Outlook - Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 oil warning and the rate cut dilemmaCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:48 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 9, 2026 The current sessions' Market picture is not an easy one to understand – The largest cap stocks are all broadly unchanged in today's session, resisting the overnight chaotic drop.Traditional and Defensive equities are the largest victims of the drops however, with none of such sectors withstanding the pressure except for a few Healthcare and Producer Manufacturing names.Broadcom is on the other hand pulling the semiconductors sector to a bullish tilt, with Tech in general marking its own rebound since the beginning of the War, as such sectors tend to get less impacted by rising energy prices and supply shocks.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones saw a spectacular move in the past few trading sessions, notably breaking the significant 47,000 Support level during thin-volume futures trading.Attempting a rally back above the Psychological level, a very symbolic test will now be playing out and affecting the upcoming outlook for the Stock Market:Retesting the 47,000 Support, bulls will want to extend above 47,200 to add hopes of a further reboundImminent trading is to be monitored as the Friday lows gap has now been filledExtending a rebound above 47,300 will be necessary to confirm a more decisive rebound.Rejecting current levels could easily open the door towards 46,000.Any break of this key level would point to August highs 45,715.Below this, there is no support until January ATH at 45,283Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels47,300 Friday closeFriday Pivot 47,500 to 47,650 (bullish above)Pivotal Resistance at 48,000November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsKey Support 47,000 to 47,200 (testing – Bearish below!!!)Overnight futures drop Mini-Support 46,30046,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView I hope that some traders were able to catch the Tweezer top bearish formation signal from Friday's analysis!For those who did not, an interesting level is imminently getting reached;Despite the large bull candle from this morning, Nasdaq is facing a pivotal resistance at current levels with the overnight Gap fill reached (24,643).This provides a decent setup for short-entries, with the setup invalidated above the 4H 50-period MA at 24,850.For those who prefer a tighter stop, look at the Mini-intraday Pivot around 24,750200 point stops are relatively large, hence, manage size accordingly.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsGap fill – Imminent resistance 24,643Mini-intraday Pivot 24,7504H 50-period MA 24,850Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceSupport LevelsOctober and Overnight lows 23,97224,400 to 25,600 Key SupportFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,300October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has officially broken its double bottom throughout the overnight trading and as warned on Friday, it marked a bearish break lower to test the 6,579 lows.Also coming back to test its Friday lows gap fill (6,710), reactions here will be very key:Rejecting the current level would point to further downside aheadA first stop could be expected at the overnight lowsBreaking below opens the door to 6,500 – October lowsAny close above 6,750 would invalidate the bearish setup.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,710 Imminent Gap fillBull/Bear Momentum Pivot 6,730 to 6,7506,770 to 6,800 Major Resistance Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Minor Support (Gap fill! – bearish below)Overnight lows 6,5796,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are under pressure, caught between safe-haven demand (bulls) from escalating Middle East tensions and the "higher rates for longer" narrative (bears) driven by a strong US Dollar and inflation fears.The weekend's oil storage strikes in Iran pushed oil over $100/barrel, increasing inflation concerns.The G-7 is considering releasing oil reserves, a move that could temporarily ease oil prices, potentially softening the hawkish rate view and aiding Gold.Technically, Gold is consolidating, with a breakout on either side of the $5193/$5038 range needed for a clear direction.Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 oil warning and the rate cut dilemmaThe price of gold is down around 1.6% on the day as the precious metal faces a tug of war between bears and bulls.The safe haven demand many have been expecting has been somewhat overshadowed by the idea of higher rates for longer which has contributed to a stronger US dollar. At this stage neither bulls nor bears have been able to seize control, however the longer the status quo in the Middle East remains as is, the case for bears will grow stronger.Middle East developments The situation in Iran escalated over the weekend with strikes on Tehran which focused on Oil storage facilities. The strikes raised concerns around energy supply and its impact on global inflation.This prompted a strong risk-off sentiment environment with Oil prices soaring over $100/barrel and Gold peaking overnight at $5192/oz. Since then, Gold has fallen to an intraday low of $5014/oz as markets continue to price in less rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.According to the latest LSEG data, markets are now only pricing in around 37 bps of rate cuts in 2026. This is down from around 66 bps prior to the spike in oil prices. Source: LSEG This hawkish narrative is impacting Gold prices at the moment while profit taking after last night's surge may have also played some role in the selloff.Another development over the weekend was the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader. The development is seen by many political analysts as a sign that any hope of a swift conclusion to the conflict is rather slim at this stage.While tensions may remain high in the Middle East which will feed haven demand, it will also likely keep oil prices elevated and thus lead to a hawkish narrative around rates. This will keep the tug of war between bulls and bears firmly in place and may see Gold remain volatile but in a tighter range in the upcoming trading sessions.G-7 to release oil reserves There has been growing chatter throughout the day that the G-7 may release oil reserves to help shore up supply concerns and could aid prices. Initially comments were made by Japan Finance Minister Katayama who said that the IEA urged G-7 nations to release oil stockpiles.This was followed by comments from IEA Director Birol, who stated that IEA members hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks. The G-7 Finance Minister's statement confirmed that possible measures include an oil stockpile release after discussing the situation in the Middle East.According to the statement, G7 Energy Ministers are to hold a teleconference on Tuesday, and G7 leaders later this week with a final decision on whether to release oil reserves more likely to be taken by G7 leaders.Such a move could lead to a temporary drop in oil prices which in turn could aid Gold as it may see inflation fears ease, even if it is temporary.Where to next? Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, looking at the H1 chart for Gold and as you can see price has been caught in a period of consolidation.Given the overarching fundamental and geopolitical risks, it might be better to look at shorter-term moves until the bigger picture becomes clearer.A 1 hour candle close on either side of the red block could lead to a breakout in that direction. If no breakout materializes, price could continue to coil within the range.On the upside of the range we have the $5193 level while the downside of the range comes in around the $5038 handle. .The period-14 RSI is eyeing a break back above the 50-neutral level on the H1 chart which would hint at a potential shift toward more bullish momentum.However, as has been the case for the majority of the day, any attempt to push prices higher by bulls has been met by swift selling pressure. A tug of war if you will.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, March 9, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review Escalating Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude to $90 a barrel, raising fears of oil hitting $150.A surprising contraction in the US labor market (unexpected job losses in February and unemployment at 4.4%) has increased the chance of a June or July interest rate cut by the Fed.US markets show more resilience, supported by the tech sector and net oil exporter status, while Europe faces a potential "stagflationary shock" due to its vulnerability to energy price spikesThe week ahead is dominated by geopolitics, but major economic releases include US CPI and Core PCE for insights into inflation's "stickiness," and a significant upward revision expected for Japan's Q4 2025 GDP.Read More: Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comebackWall Street’s primary indexes tumbled on Friday, led by a sharp decline in the Dow to a three-month low as the market grappled with escalating conflict in the Middle East and a surprising contraction in the US labor market.Data revealed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February,exacerbated by healthcare strikes and severe winter weather pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%.This combination of geopolitical tension and economic cooling has shifted market expectations; traders have now priced in a roughly 50% chance of a June interest rate cut, while some analysts suggest the Fed’s dual mandate to balance inflation and employment could pull the first cut forward to July. The volatility is being fueled by a dramatic spike in energy prices, with Brent crude hitting $90 a barrel following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As shipping halts and analysts warn that oil could reach $150 a barrel if Gulf exports are fully suspended, airline stocks have plummeted nearly 13% this week.Qatar’s recent warnings regarding prolonged delivery delays for natural gas have only added to the "stagflation" fears, a situation where growth slows while prices rise.Despite the downturn, US markets have shown more resilience than their global counterparts, buoyed by a strong tech sector and the nation's status as a net oil exporter.In contrast, European markets suffered their worst week in nearly a year, with the STOXX 600 hitting a two-month low. Because Europe is more vulnerable to energy price shocks, major exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and Madrid recorded historic weekly losses as investors braced for a potential stagflationary environment across the continent.Gold prices edged higher on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East sparked a wave of safe-haven buying.Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,090.16 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.4% to $5,099.50. Despite these daily gains, the metal remained on track for a 3.5% weekly decline, effectively snapping a four-week winning streak.This downward pressure stemmed from persistent inflation worries and a volatile dollar, both of which have dampened investor expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. Source: LSEG The broader commodities market showed a stark contrast, as crude oil prices surged toward their most significant weekly gain since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Spot WTI oil was up around 34% at the time of writing.While gold benefited slightly from its status as a refuge during geopolitical instability, the reality of "higher-for-longer" interest rates continues to weigh on bullion's appeal compared to yield-bearing assets.The Week Ahead Global markets enter the second week of March 2026 under the shadow of a rapidly escalating Middle East conflict. With a US-led campaign against Iran entering its second week and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, the "2022 Energy Shock" is no longer just a historical reference, it is the primary lens through which investors are viewing the week ahead.The Macro Theme: Geopolitics Overpowers FundamentalsWhile the economic calendar is packed with heavy hitters like US CPI and UK GDP, their influence may be dampened by the "high-risk zone" of current geopolitics.Energy Prices as the Barometer: Brent crude has already surged toward $85/bbl. Analysts warn that a breach of $100/bbl would be a "psychological milestone" that could trigger a deeper sell-off in risk assets.2022 vs. 2026: There does appear to be a critical difference from the 2022 shock: the labor market is now much cooler. Unlike 2022, when workers could chase higher pay to offset energy costs, the current cooling trend (highlighted by a weak February US jobs report) means consumers have less of a buffer.United States: The Inflation-Rate Cut Tug-of-WarThe spotlight is firmly on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Wednesday and Core PCE on Friday.The Dilemma: Markets are looking for signs of how "sticky" inflation remains before the full impact of the current energy spike is even recorded. A surprise upside in CPI would likely force markets to price out the two Fed rate cuts currently expected for 2026.Consumer Sentiment: Friday’s University of Michigan survey will be the first real-time look at how the "energy shock" and tariff fears are sapping household confidence.Asia: China’s "Two Sessions" and Japan’s GDP RevisionAsia remains at the forefront of the supply chain disruption, with a specific focus on the closing of China’s National People’s Congress.China (Monday/Tuesday): February CPI and PPI data will be released. Analysts expect a bounce in CPI to ~1.0% due to Lunar New Year spending, though this may be viewed as a "noise" rather than a trend. Trade data (Tuesday) will be scrutinized for the resilience of external demand.Japan (Tuesday): Expect a significant upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP (from 0.1% to 0.3% QoQ) following strong capital spending and winter bonuses. This could keep the Bank of Japan on its path toward normalization despite global turmoil.Europe & UK: Looking for Signs of LifeThe Eurozone is navigating a "stagflationary shock" where energy deficits punish the Euro, though narrowing interest rate differentials against the USD are providing some support.Germany (Monday/Wednesday): Industrial Production and final Inflation data will show if the "fledgling recovery" in manufacturing can withstand the new energy spike.United Kingdom (Friday): Monthly GDP and industrial output for January will be released. Markets are looking for a pickup in growth to confirm the encouraging signals seen in recent PMI surveys. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the week - WTI Oil From a technical standpoint, WTI has just posted a massive bullish engulfing candle which has completely invalidated the previous multi-year downtrend, thrusting WTI from the mid-$60s to over $90.00 in a matter of days. The move as is largely the case was driven by the geopolitical and fundamental dynamics around Oil prices. However, it is important to note that were thechnical signs that Oil was in a consolidation phase with a breakout growing ever-more likley.Nobody however envisioned a 30% + price spike in the space of a week.Where does price go to from here?This will of course depend on the course the war in the Middle East takes.Further refinery attacks by Iran or any escalation on that front and we could open the new week already above the $100/barrel mark.Alternatively, if tensions do begin to ease, Oil prices may fall quite quickly.The price is currently testing the $90.05 level. If the momentum continues, the next major psychological and technical targets are $93.96 and the multi-year high at $100.00.In the event of a "cool-off," the previous resistance at $80.19 and the 200-day SMA ($75.41) now serve as the primary floor.There is a significant liquidity gap between $70 and $85. In normal market conditions, these gaps tend to fill, but in "war-premium" markets, they can remain open for weeks.WTI Oil Weekly Chart, March 6, 2026 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning is sending a nasty look for Markets, as Oil continues to explode higher amid Middle East tensions. At the same time, US labor data keeps showing volatility, this time to the downside.It is a dark day for risk assets, and the fundamentals aren't going to help – particularly with a miss in Retail Sales rubbing salt in the wound, it seems that prior bounces in US data could have been a seasonal effect of Holidays/New Year hiring and consumption. We could now be facing a hangover. Morning US Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Non-Farm Payrolls just released at -92K vs +56K expected, a significant (-148K) miss!Such a reversal in the data can't fail to raise questions about actual job displacement from new AI technologies and whether the Federal Reserve is really getting behind the curve.The issue for the Central Bank is that inflation is certainly bouncing higher despite lower Retail Sales – so combine a weaker jobs Market, consumption, and elevated inflation, and conclusions about stagflation could be reached quickly – and with decent reasoning, too!With Energy prices shooting higher throughout the week, it is certain that inflation expectations are not going to ease anytime soon – the only thing that could soothe them at this point is an actual pricing of slower consumption ahead, but that wouldn't fare well for the US economy.Goods-producing, Private Education, and Services took the largest hit, with gains only seen in Financials and Wholesale Trades. You can get access to the Non-Farm Payrolls report for February right here.We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend. Discover:Markets Today: Rate cut hopes wither as Nikkei and Kospi suffer steep weekly losses. NFP data up nextChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comebackThe Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?A Nasty Market Picture Stock and Energy Product Futures – Courtesy of Finviz There goes risk-appetite, as a close to 10% rise in daily WTI prices will keep raising inflation expectations and that tends to coincide with major repricings in Equity marketsAn in-depth Stock Market coming at the top of the morning.Cryptos Are Not Getting Spared Bitcoin 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are not sustaining the dampening Market mood.Even Bonds, which could have thought to rebound in such a miss in Non-Farm Payrolls, are actually met with high pressure from the rise in Oil (and rising Inflation Expectations).Only Metals Are Sustaining the Pressure Gold 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Only Gold and Silver are rebounding, albeit a timid rebound for now – A Double bottom in Gold will be helping its prospects on the intraday.Nonetheless, a larger picture double top could still have its effect, so Bulls will have to show real strength, volume and conviction!WTI (US) Oil Wicks at $90, Explodes to October 2023 Highs! WTI Daily Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The last time we saw the $90 handle in WTI was in late 2023 – A scary picture, particularly considering that Oil was trading at $55 just about two months ago!!The Commodity has now risen 30% since the beginning of the week and despite some slight easing, the squeeze doesn't seem to be stalling.A more detailed analysis for Oil is coming up in the afternoon. For now, keep track on if the action remains above $86.If it closes here, pressure will remain high.Correcting below should point to a slight correction ($80 would be the next step).Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian Dollar had been a victim of a rough stretch since the beginning of Trump's second term.Isolated by its historic neighbor amid US First policies, the Canadian Economy had been taking a sustained hit, leading to an accelerated cooling. The Land of Maple Syrup is known to be highly cyclical. Structurally, it tends to be dependent on commodity prices, global trade, and particularly on the US, which harshly pumped the brakes. Canadian GDP Growth since end 2020 – Courtesy of Trading Economics This phenomenon got accelerated by the historic Canadian mortgage structure: Variable loans are particularly affected when rates rise, compared to the typical 30-year fixed rates offered in the US.Hence, after the 2 years of ultra-low rates during COVID policies, the Bank of Canada hikes sent the hypersonic economy into a rock-hard wall.Add to this a general productivity restructuring, as massive waves of immigration saw another brutal stop; business confidence and investment stalled suddenly over the past few years – this shows up particularly in GDP per capita in Canada, which has remained broadly unchanged since 2012. Canadian GDP per Capita since 1985 – Courtesy of Macro Micro But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After years of questioning within Canada's natural Liberal party, Justin Trudeau stepped aside for Mark Carney, who has since cast doubt on some political issues.Since his ascension to power in March 2025, Carney and his party have brought three Conservatives into their ranks. Conservatives are going through their own crisis with internal trouble and separatist causes in Alberta. The Liberal Party is now three seats away from a majority in the House of Commons.But that's just politics. Even if the Canadian economy remains deeply strained from the latest rounds of US Policies, Carney has begun a new wave of international trade deals with India, China, and Europe – The rise of the "Middle power". Canada's manoeuvre options were thin, with the trilateral USMCA deal in limbo, but its capacities are slowly increasing.What is of traders' interest is how all of this relates to the Loonie. After reaching 16-year lows against the Euro, 22-year troughs against the USD, and a new nadir against the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar is forging a sharp turn, supported by higher petroleum and gold prices. Canadian Dollar and Oil Tight Correlation – Source: TradingView While its economy remains crippled by structural factors, Markets are forward-looking, and traders should do the same, so let's ask a simple question.Have we seen a long-term bottom in the Canadian Dollar? Let's dive into the weekly charts for USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, and EUR/CAD to see if we can get some clues from higher-timeframe technical analysis. Read More:Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?Markets Today: KOSPI surges 9.63% to lead Asian rally, Europe struggles, FTSE 100 eyes recoveryCanadian Dollar 3-Pair Weekly Timeframe AnalysisUSD/CAD Weekly Chart and Major Levels USD/CAD Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has now officially broken its 2021 long-term uptrend – But such rarely signify immediate U-turns.The Major North American pair is currently ranging between 1.35 and 1.38, stabilized by its 200-Week Moving Average (1.36378).The consolidation isn't looking to be break on the immediate outlook, but keep these two breakout zones in mind:Breaking and closing on the week below 1.35 would hint at further downside in the pair.Rebounding a closing above its 50-Week MA (1.3830) could lead to a retest of 1.40 (lower odds)Explore our shorter timeframe analysis for USD/CAD right here.USD/CAD Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:1.38 Major Daily Resistance & 50-Week MA (1.3830)2026 highs 1.39288November 2025 Peak 1.40 to 1.4150December 2024 Consolidation 1.44 to 1.45Support Levels:200-Week MA 1.363782025 lows Support 1.35 to 1.36 (bearish below)September 2024 lows 1.344201.32 to 1.33 July 2023 Next SupportCAD/CHF Weekly Chart and Major Levels CAD/CHF Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Canadian Dollar has lost more than 25% of its value against the CHF since 2022 – But this trend looks to be reverting.Contrarily to the more rangebound USD/CAD, momentum is taking a significant shift towards a rebounding trend after a weekly double-bottom and supported by a weekly bullish divergence.The 50-Week MA will be the upcoming target for bulls who are attempting to grab control – Closing above it may easily relaunch the pair towards 0.60.CAD/CHF Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:Major Momentum Pivot 0.57 to 0.58 (50-Week MA 0.58133)0.59 mini-resistanceNext Key Resistance 0.60 to 0.60502024 Base Resistance 0.62 to 0.62702024 Major Resistance 0.64 to 0.64750 (200-Week MA)Support Levels:All-Time Lows Support 0.560.56013 All-Time LowsNext Psychological Support 0.55EUR/CAD Weekly Chart and Major Levels EUR/CAD Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/CAD is also seeing a significant shift in its trend throughout this week's break lower.Now falling below its 50-Week Moving Average and crossing back below the significant 1.60 psychological level, sellers should remain in control all the way towards the 1.57 - 1.58 Major Support. Mean reversion there could assist a re-entry for further downside, particularly if prices retake the 1.59 level.Watch for selling acceleration on a weekly close below 1.57.EUR/CAD Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:2020 Resistance Zone – 1.59 to 1.6050-Week MA 1.6020Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.61 to 1.6150Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.63 to 1.6416-Year high 1.64703Support Levels:Upcoming support 1.57 to 1.58 ZoneMarch 2025 Support Zone 1.5475 to 1.55Pre-Breakout Support 1.5150 to 1.522024 Major Support 1.46 to 1.4750 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks absolutely smash previous days selling with huge rallies todaySince Trump's security pledge in the Middle East, Stocks have been explodingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Global Stock Indexes remain undefeated, and no war nor Capital Market trouble seems to be providing damage in their ever-resilient rise.No analyst or traders could have predicted such a resilient behavior from Investors amid the ongoing heavy War currently ongoing in the Middle East.US and Israeli armies are certainly striking rough blows to the Islamic regime's military capacities; Recent communication from both the US President and Secretary of War are reassuring Participants in the fact that the ongoing conflict has low probabilities of repeating mistakes seen in Iraq or Afghanistan: A prolonged and damaging war, without much to count for it.As expressed in our week-opening analysis, two of the most anxiety-prone elements in this war are how long it takes, and how heavy of an impact it has on Oil prices.For now, the length of the war is projected to be lasting around 4 to 5 weeks – this still has the potential to change, but current updates sound optimistic.On Oil, the commodity has somewhat stabilized in the $72 to $75 range (WTI). Yes, ships are scared to pass through Strait of Hormuz but the outlook isn't so grim right now with multiple reports of a damaged Iranian Navy.Any explosion in Oil prices or complication in operations has the potential to dampen mood significantly – Black Gold is certainly the most volatility-prone element of them both.Another element helping Equities is this morning's streak of positive US data, including a strong beat on US Services PMIs and ADP private employment. US Data this morning – MarketPulse Economic Calendar This also tags along with strong rebounds in Global Stock Indexes, also starkly rebounding today with the Nikkei closing up 2% and European Benchmarks up about the same.Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleCan Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:24 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 4, 2026 Defensive Blue Chips, traditionals and Energy Stocks are now seeing rejection as Wall Street turns a new rush towards Tech. High-beta semiconductors and softwares are marking a decent recovery in the past week and leading Equities in their resilient run – They could indeed sustain less damage from any effect from a prolonged war; Actually, they would mostly benefit from high information flows and military need for technologies!Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now breaking out of its descending channel but will face key hurdles at the 49,000 resistance zone and its 4H 50-period Moving Average just below (48,975).The morning rally is nothing short of impressive, but some profit-taking seems to be going through as traders look for quick-trades amid ongoing uncertainty – And that is certainly a way to protect trading accounts!Rejecting the 4H MA would mark a rough stall in the middle of the range, indicative of further potential downside ahead. Breaking back above however relaunches hopes for an all-time high run!Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA – 48,97549,000 to 49,250 Key psychological resistanceJanuary ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Morning SupportPsychological Pivot at 48,000August Support 47,500 to 47,65047,000 Next Main support45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is indeed flexing its muscles by rebounding back above the key 25,000 level and bulls are not letting the Index correct.Breaking the 200-period MA (25,170) would confirm the breakout and should hint at a swift run towards 25,500 – This stands as long as sentiment remains positive. Keep a close eye on the tech sector!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 200-period MA 25,170Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (testing)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceSupport LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)February Support 24,150 to 24,300 – Morning lowsOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 confirms its powerful range yet again, and will now face a strong test at the 6,900 Mid-Range resistance.Closing back above would point to a quick test of the 6,950 resistance.Rejecting it however could easily retest previous session's trough at 6,710.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,8406,770 to 6,800 Psychological SupportPrevious day lows 6,710February lows 6,710 to 6,7306,680 to 6,700 Next Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold bulls have long been waiting for geopolitical troubles to justify the metal's record prices.However, markets often play rough games with high expectations, as we recently saw with Nvidia and Microsoft earnings. This aligns with the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news."Similar profit-taking moves have previously occurred in silver, platinum, and palladium, so investors might have thought gold would be exempt, given its reputation as a true safe-haven.However, the recent unexpected market behavior in relation to geopolitical conflict is surprising. Despite ongoing tensions and heavy military activity in the Middle East, stocks actually rallied after Trump assured the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.Risk assets are decidedly rebounding, with cryptocurrencies surging to monthly highs as well as global Stock Markets; This proves how unusual these war flows have been.So, why are safe havens selling off?The US Department of Defense has certainly demonstrated its capabilities to rapidly damage key Iranian positions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.Investors fear a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, so the idea of shorter operations is providing a sense of relief, as reflected in the market.Investors also just received yet another report of US economic strength with another beat in Services PMI (56.1 vs 53.5 estimates), along with firming Private ADP Employment. Difficult to justify metal-boosting rate cuts with such solid data.Friday will provide more clarity on that aspect with the monthly NFP data for February; Expect this one to rock Market expectations again!Let’s conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of gold, as its recent price action has formed a double top. Will this signal the start of a real downtrend? Read More:Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Chart alert: Risk-off persists on Strait of Hormuz fears, EUR/CHF eyeing 0.9010 key bearish breakdown levelTrump guarantees maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz: Markets U-turn on Navy escort pledgeGold (XAU/USD) Multi-timeframe analysisWeekly Chart Gold Weekly Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is now facing high-importance hurdles ahead.After failing to regain its January $5,600 top despite the fundamental shift, sellers could now take the upper hand. This could particularly be the case when looking at the Weekly RSI forming a bearish divergence.However, a counter-argument could maintain demand for Gold – Remaining above its Key weekly pivot zone, particularly above $5,100, proves that the action can still remain in balance on the higher timeframe.Any break lower will also see streaks of support, with the most immediate major support a the December highs around $4,550.Gold Daily Chart Gold Daily Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold sends out a more gloomy picture on the Daily timeframe, with the two recent bearish candles located at relative spikes forming a double-top.While today's small rebound shows hesitancy, looking forward, as long as bulls can't manage to overtake the $5,379 highs from yesterday, technicals point to downside ahead.Crossing back below $5,100 would allow sellers to re-take control of the short-term action, hinting at a retest of the mid-Feb lows ($4,844).Breaking this level would then mark an official re-entry within the 2025 bull channel – $4,200 is its current lower bound (however it remains far from now).Levels of interest for Gold trading: Support Levels:$5,100 Major Pivot turned support (Short-term: sellers in control below – Testing)$4,850 to $4,900 Key Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:$5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $50)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Gold 4H Chart Gold 4H Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is now rejecting its intraday key 50-period moving average acting as resistance.A key test of the upward trendline will provide a last chance for bulls to re-take the short-term hand, before the double top materializes into a more consequential correction.Watch for a break and 4H close below $5,100.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.