Stock Benchmarks maintain strong divergence with the Dow Leading while Nasdaq fallsTech sector is being rejected from high valuations and AI repricingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The age of passive investing is now long gone.Tech investors who had the easy job of buying and waiting to generate enormous returns are now under heavy scrutiny as a new age commences.As expressed in this excellent piece, AI is now reaching the stage of creative destruction.As the AI Bull trend began, almost everything remotely linked to Tech and Semiconductors was getting lifted in a hurry. Still, the funnel is reducing back towards the real winners and losers of the Revolution – And there will be many.The Tech sector remained pushed by the new era of internet dominance across purchasing behaviors and new ways to interact between buyers and sellers – look at Airbnb and Uber, for example.For example, individuals now use AI for a wide range of uses, including research, coding, writing emails, and more.So logically, many of the Tech firms that specialize in these areas will now be useless middlemen.So what are investors turning to? Value.AI won't replace potato fields (at least for now) or replace chemists, machine producers, etc.Surely, it will assist and improve the efficiency of these traditional processes, but it definitely won't replace the firms that provide what humanity needs to live.In that regard, Farming, Healthcare, Consumer Defensives, Homes & Building, Railroads, etc., are seeing some new inflows, which are translating into the Dow Jones' outperformance against the Nasdaq. zoom_out_map Dow Jones to Nasdaq Relative Strength – Source: TradingView. February 4, 2026 The Dow Jones to Nasdaq ratio, mentioned in our previous day Stock Market analysis actually just broke back above the key 2.00 level – Watch for the development of a new trend for Stocks here.Let’s dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as profit-taking flows could confirm the broader range. Read More:Resilient traders in uncertain times – North American Mid-Week Market updateChart alert: Alphabet (GOOGL) medium-term uptrend at risk of bearish reversal below $353.60/367.16The Euro's double-edged moment: ECB set to hold rates despite strength and growth drag zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 4, 2026 Even with some of the Mag 7s rebounding, the overall Tech sector (which represents a large part of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq) is in the red while almost everything else is up.Google's earnings after the close will surely impact these flows but the rest is too see how much it does.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The divergence is now quite visual with the Dow Jones testing its all-time highs while Nasdaq trends lower (see below).Still, a couple of technical warnings are arising.The short-term price action is forming a bearish RSI divergence and coupling this with the inability to decisively break the 49,650 Resistance area, the outlook isn't immediately bullish.The picture remains rangebound, as confirmed by the flat 200-period 2H MA.A decisive break and close above 50,000 would cement the bull case for the DJIA.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700Tuesday Highs 49,681All-time Highs 49,710 (CFD) – Index ATH is at 49,65350,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsIntraday Pivot 49,200 to 49,350Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (Bull above, Bearish below)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Having broken its Greenland-Crisis lows, the picture looks very different compared to the Dow Jones and now looking decisively bearish.A measured move to the downside (purple square) is developing, hinting at the current selloff stalling at around 24,600.Depending on Alphabet earnings, the index could see some dip-buying around here but Bulls will have to push back above 25,100 to help with the bearish prospects.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,250Mid-range Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMeasured Move target ~24,60024,500 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The outlook for the S&P 500 isn't much brighter than its Higher-Beta tech peer.Another measured move to the downside is forming in the Spoose and hinting at a test of the 6,810 level.Any break below will give a pretty nasty look on the bigger picture.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Session highs 6,950Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,810 measured move target6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Analysts expect a record-breaking Q4 2025, with revenue projected to hit approximately $211.3B and EPS at $1.97, driving Amazon to surpass $700 billion in annual revenue for the first timeThe primary weight on the stock is the "Stifling" capital expenditure trajectoryAmazon Web Services (AWS) remains the crown jewel (expected to reach ~$35B, 21-22% growth) and investors are looking for evidence of continued reaccelerationThe stock's immediate future rests on the "AI narrative"Most Read: The Euro's double-edged moment: ECB set to hold rates despite strength and growth dragAs Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) prepares to report its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 5, 2026, Wall Street is bracing for a potential milestone: the retail and cloud giant is expected to surpass $700 billion in annual revenue for the first time in its history.However, while the top-line numbers look robust, the stock's recent "flat" performance compared to the broader S&P 500 suggests that investors are demanding more than just growth they want clarity on the costs of the AI arms race.The numbers to watch The consensus among analysts points to a record-breaking holiday quarter driven by strong consumer demand and a reacceleration in cloud services:Revenue: Expected to hit $211.3 billion to $211.6 billion, representing roughly 13% year-over-year growth. This aligns with Amazon's own guidance of $206 billion to $213 billion.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates sit at $1.97 to $1.98, a modest 6% increase from the $1.86 reported in Q4 2024.AWS Revenue: Expected to reach approximately $35 billion, a 21-22% increase year-over-year.Key areas of focus for market participants AWS and the AI Efficiency Narrative Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the crown jewel, contributing nearly 20% of total revenue but a far higher percentage of operating profit. After a period of slowing growth in 2023, AWS has reaccelerated, hitting 20% growth in Q3 2025. Investors will be looking for a continuation of this trend, specifically focusing on how quickly Amazon can convert its $200 billion backlog into realized revenue.A critical sub-plot is the adoption of Amazon’s in-house AI chips, Trainium and Inferentia. As Amazon seeks to reduce its dependency on Nvidia and improve margins, evidence of broader customer adoption beyond Anthropic (which recently scaled to nearly 500,000 Trainium chips) will be a significant bullish signal.The "Stifling" Capex Trajectory The primary weight on Amazon's stock price recently has been the massive capital expenditure required to build out AI data centers. Amazon raised its 2025 capex guidance to $125 billion, and management has already signaled that spending will increase further in 2026 with some estimates exceeding $150 billion.Investors are concerned that this "Capex explosion" is squeezing free cash flow. Any commentary during the earnings call that suggests a "peak" in the investment cycle or a clear path to improved cash generation could spark a major rally. Conversely, if 2026 spending guidance exceeds current fears without a corresponding jump in revenue outlook, the stock could face pressure.Retail Resilience and Advertising Growth The fourth quarter includes the critical Prime Big Deal Days and the traditional holiday shopping season. Despite intense competition from discount platforms like Temu and Shein, Amazon’s logistics "regionalization" strategy has kept costs down and delivery speeds up.Furthermore, Advertising continues to be a high-margin powerhouse. After growing 24% to $17.7 billion in Q3, analysts expect the advertising segment to benefit from a "seasonal spike" in Q4, potentially outperforming the core retail business and helping to pad overall operating margins.Workforce Efficiency Following the recent announcement of 16,000 job cuts—the largest in the company’s history investors will be looking for evidence that "leaner" operations are translating to the bottom line. CEO Andy Jassy’s focus on "cost to serve" in the fulfillment network will be under the microscope.Potential stock price implications Options market pricing suggests traders are preparing for a significant move of approximately 7% in either direction following the announcement.The Bull Case: If Amazon delivers a "double beat" (Revenue and EPS) and provides optimistic 2026 guidance, specifically indicating that AI investments are yielding high-margin returns the stock could break out of its recent consolidation wedge and target its previous highs near $255–$260.The Bear Case: If AWS growth shows signs of plateauing due to capacity constraints, or if the 2026 Capex forecast is viewed as "excessive" relative to cash flow, the stock could retreat toward support levels near $222–$230The stock has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern since reaching a record high of $258 in November 2025. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation followed by a significant breakout.Amazon Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Roadmap for 2026: What management must communicate For the February 5 earnings call to be a success, CEO Andy Jassy and CFO Brian Olsavsky must provide clarity on several key performance indicators:AWS Revenue Floor: A commitment to maintaining at least 20% growth throughout 2026.Capex ROI Metrics: Evidence that the $125 billion spent in 2025 is already contributing to operating income, particularly through custom silicon adoption.Advertising Integration: Plans for expanding ad formats beyond Prime Video, possibly into voice search (Alexa) and physical store digital signage.FCF Guidance: A timeline for when free cash flow will return to its 2024 levels, providing reassurance that the company will not need to rely indefinitely on debt markets.Conclusion Amazon enters this earnings release as a "tweener", a company caught between its legacy as an e-commerce giant and its future as an AI infrastructure powerhouse. While the holiday retail numbers will provide the foundation, the stock's immediate future likely rests on the "AI narrative": specifically, whether the massive billions being poured into data centers are starting to pay off for the bottom line.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to hold key interest rates steadyJanuary's inflation hitting the 2% target supports this "wait-and-see" approach, with the focus now on "how long" rates will remain at this levelThe Euro's recent strength helps suppress imported inflation but creates a "Growth Drag" that threatens Eurozone exportsMarket participants will closely watch President Lagarde's press conference for clues on future policyMost Read: Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Can AI and cloud momentum sustain the $4 trillion valuation?As the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for its first major meeting of 2026 on February 5, the Governing Council finds itself in a delicate balancing act. After a series of rate cuts in late 2024 and 2025 that brought the deposit facility rate down to 2.00%, the central bank now faces a "neutral" landscape where the next move is far from certain.The Decision: Steady hands amidst stability Market consensus is overwhelmingly in favor of a hold. The ECB is expected to maintain its key interest rates, the Deposit Facility at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Operations at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40%. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG This "wait-and-see" approach is bolstered by January’s inflation data, which landed right on the ECB's 2% target. While some economists suggest that headline inflation could actually dip as low as 1.7% in the coming weeks, the Governing Council appears content to let the current restrictive-to-neutral policy simmer. Following the "plateau" narrative that emerged in late 2025, the February meeting is less about the immediate decision and more about the "policy signals" for the rest of the year.The Euro’s "Moment": Strength vs. Competitiveness The euro enters February 2026 in a position of renewed strength but this has introduced a new layer of complexity to the ECB’s deliberations. In early 2026, the euro broke above the 1.19 mark against the US dollar, briefly testing the psychological resistance level of 1.20.However, this Euro strength is a double-edged sword for Frankfurt.The Deflationary Hedge: A stronger euro helps suppress imported inflation—particularly energy and raw materials priced in dollars. This gives President Christine Lagarde more breathing room to keep rates steady even if global commodity prices fluctuate.The Growth Drag: The "global euro moment" also brings risks. A potent currency threatens the competitiveness of Eurozone exports, particularly for the German industrial sector, which is already struggling with a modest 2026 growth forecast of 0.8% to 1.2%. If the euro’s appreciation becomes too aggressive, it could "import deflation" to the point of undershooting the 2% target, potentially forcing the ECB to resume rate cuts earlier than the "hold through 2026" crowd expects.Market Outlook: Looking beyond the decision Market participants are looking past the February announcement to the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the subsequent March projections. Currently, swap markets are pricing in very little movement for the remainder of 2026, signaling that the "rate cut cycle" that defined 2025 has likely reached its conclusion.However, the tone of the press conference will be vital. Any emphasis on "downside risks to growth" or concerns regarding the "undershooting of inflation" will be interpreted as a dovish tilt. Conversely, if Lagarde maintains that service-sector inflation remains sticky, the Euro could see further gains as traders price out any remaining hopes for a mid-year cut.President Lagarde’s press conference will be closely watched for clues on balancing inflation, growth, and market risks. zoom_out_map Source: For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Implications for the Currency For the Euro, the February meeting is likely to consolidate its recent gains unless the ECB explicitly expresses discomfort with the currency's level. With the US Federal Reserve also reaching a potential pause in its own cycle, the EUR/USD pair is finding a new equilibrium.The primary takeaway for February 2026 is that the ECB has successfully navigated the "soft landing." The focus has shifted from "how high" or "how low" to "how long", how long will rates stay at 2% before the next economic shift dictates a new direction.For now, stability is the name of the game in Frankfurt.Technical Analysis - EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has seen a significant pullback since the January 27 high at 1.2082.The pullback is just over 50% of the initial upside move which started at the 1.1572 handle on January 19.Heading into the meeting, EUR/USD rests at a key area of support which was the swing high in December 2025 around the 1.1794.If this level holds, then a run back toward the psychological 1.2000 handle may be on the cards.The period 14-RSI bodes well, having bounced off the neutral 50 level which hints at bullish momentum remaining in play.A break lower from here may bring the 100-day MA back into focus around the 1.1678 handle.EUR/USD Daily Chart, February 4, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Strong fundamentals, but timing risk rising: Alphabet heads into Q4 earnings with solid expectations (15.4% YoY revenue growth) and has outperformed the S&P 500 YTD, yet price momentum is showing signs of exhaustion despite strong AI and cloud-driven fundamentals.Medium-term uptrend at an inflection point: The uptrend from April 2025 is at risk of a bearish reversal if prices fail below the 353.50–367.16 resistance zone and break under 321.50 (50-DMA), opening the door to a multi-week correction toward 296.12 and potentially 270.70.Technical warnings are stacking up: A “Dark Cloud Cover” reversal pattern, bearish RSI divergence at overbought levels, and weakening volatility-adjusted relative strength versus the S&P 500 all point to fading upside momentum and elevated downside risk. Alphabet Inc, the parent company of Google, will report its Q4 earnings results after the close of today’s US session (Wednesday, 4 February).Sell-side analysts expect Alphabet’s Q4 revenue to hit $111.4 billion, a 15.4% year-on-year increase, with adjusted earnings per share projected at $2,64, following a revenue beat in Q3.Read more: Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Can AI and cloud momentum sustain the $4 trillion valuation?Can Alphabet continue to outperform the S&P 500 & the rest of Mag 7? zoom_out_map Fig. 1: YTD performance of Magnificent 7 & US stock indices as of 3 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) So far, Alphabet's share price has outperformed the major US stock indices and ranked in the top of the Magnificent 7 group, with a year-to-date gain of 8.5% as of 3 February 2026, surpassing the S&P 500 (+1.1%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%) (see Fig. 1).However, Alphabet's momentum conditions are now flashing warning signs that suggest the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in place since the 7 April 2025 low of 140.53 may be over, and it may undergo a multi-week corrective decline sequence next.Let's look at the technical chart of AlphabetMedium-term trend (1 to 3 weeks): Uptrend is likely exhausted, bearish reversal next zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Alphabet (GOOGL) medium-term trend as of 3 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The current medium-term trend phase of Alphabet from 7 April 2025 is likely to have reached an inflection zone that may trigger a bearish reversal scenario.Watch the 353.50/367.16 key medium-term pivotal resistance. A break with a daily close below 321.50 (also the 50-day moving average) increases the odds of a multi-week corrective decline sequence unfolding towards the next medium-term supports of 296.12 (also the 23.6% retracement of the up move from 7 April 2025 low to 3 February 2026 high), and 270.70 (also the 38.2% retracement of the up move from 7 April 2025 low to 3 February 2026 high) (see Fig. 2.)On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 367.16 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive sequence towards the next medium-term resistances at 389.10 and 411.06/424.63.Key elements to support the medium-term bearish bias The combination of Alphabet’s price actions seen on Monday, 2 February, and Tuesday, 3 February has formed a bearish reversal candlestick pattern called “Dark Cloud Cover”.The daily RSI momentum indicator flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Tuesday, 3 February, which reinforces the potential bearish reversal scenario.The volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of Alphabet against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has started to turn down (shaped a “lower high”) above zero and traded below its 50-day moving average. These observations suggest the relative strength of Alphabet against the S&P 500 is losing momentum.Read more on VARS: How to prevent the high-beta trap and find the relevant stocks Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets see wild volatility since today's mid-session bellGeopolitical events and global deleveraging are turning strong trends into high-paced dropsExploring reactions across Markets to monitor what is moving the most Markets are getting shaky after the latest headlines – US-Iran tensions are mounting, and this is not boding well with Risk-Sentiment.It has been reported that an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea has been downed by US forces, leading to fresh Risk-off flows.Talks are still expected to take place on Friday. zoom_out_map US-Iran morning escalation – Source: X, Open Source Intel Despite a US Government deal having been reached (ending the Shutdown), the mood remains grim, and pointing the pessimistic sentiment weighing more.The headline was behind the move lower across risk assets this morning. Still, it seems that more anxiety is increasing as it collides with global deleveraging and valuation doubts across Asset classes. This also correlates with this morning's rise in Metals. Read More:Major rotation flows and drops – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Selloff takes a break, but it is over?RBA breaks two-year pause with hawkish rate hike, AUD/USD poised for further gainsStocks continue to head lower zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30M Chart – Source: TradingView. February 3, 2026 zoom_out_map Current Market picture – Courtesy of Finviz. February 3, 2026 As you can see, the current deleveraging is particularly strong in Nasdaq, which was down 2.86% at its lows until recently.Tech/AI stocks are getting rejected harshly as they stand at the extreme of the risk-spectrum and get sold off first when sentiment worsens.Bitcoin breaks $75,000 but attempts a comeback zoom_out_map Bitcoin 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 3, 2026 Negative sentiment in Crypto actually took Bitcoin below its pre-election Trump levels.The rest of the Altcoin Market isn't doing much better – Solana just broke the $100 level!Explore our latest crypto analysis right here!Oil spikes higher but rejects higher levels zoom_out_map WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 3, 2026 One unusual element in this risk-off move is that US Treasuries haven't shown any reactions – If something serious happens in Iran, expect major reactions in Bonds.Note: I had been warning of impending volatility for a while in recent articles and was surprised to see such resilience despite the headlines and moves.It could just be the beginning of a scary story, but as always, if Stock Indexes keep running to all-time highs or even remaining within 10% from them, it could be better to look away from fear to trade with more objectivity.A closing at the lows of today's session in Equities and Cryptos hints at further chances of a more widespread panic as Participants get ready for more unpredictable outcomes in recent Iran escalations – Will talks really occur on Friday?Safe Trades and keep an eye headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The RBA raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points, ending a two-year holding pattern.The move is likely the start of a new tightening cycle, with further hikes expected to combat inflation not returning to target until mid-2028.The hawkish decision caused the AUD/USD pair to surge by over 1%, reclaiming the psychologically significant 0.7000 level. Is the rally sustainable?Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Selloff takes a break, but it is over?The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) broke a two-year holding pattern by raising the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. This decision marked the first rate hike since November 2023, signaling a major shift in the RBA’s assessment of the Australian economy as inflation proved more "sticky" than previously anticipated.Reasons for the Hike: A material shift in inflation Governor Michele Bullock cited a "material" pickup in inflation during the second half of 2025 as the primary driver for the move. The RBA outlined four specific reasons for the tightening:Resilient Private Demand: Australians continued to spend and borrow more aggressively than the bank had forecasted. Private demand was described as growing "substantially more than expected."Supply Constraints and Productivity: The economy is operating closer to its supply capacity than previously thought. Weak productivity growth has meant that even modest increases in demand are generating significant price pressures.Easing Financial Conditions: Despite high rates, the RBA noted that financial conditions had actually eased over the summer. Rising home prices, increased lending, and easier access to credit suggested that previous policy settings were not restrictive enough.Global Resilience: The global economy has remained surprisingly robust, which has fed back into domestic price pressures and kept the labor market "a little tight," with unemployment remaining lower than expected.No surprise here really just looking at Australian inflation over the last 12 months which has risen dramatically. The concern for the RBA is that price pressures remain broad-based at this stage and show little sign of retreat. zoom_out_map Source: Tradingeconomics The Outlook: Not a "One-and-Done" The RBA’s updated forecasts suggest that this hike is likely the beginning of a new tightening cycle rather than an isolated adjustment.Inflation Forecasts: The bank revised its trimmed mean inflation forecast upward to 3.7% for mid-2026 (up from 3.2%). Critically, the RBA does not expect inflation to return to the 2.5% target midpoint until mid-2028.Further Hikes: Major financial institutions, including CommBank (CBA) and NAB, are already pricing in at least one more 25bp hike in May 2026, which would take the cash rate to 4.10%.The latest rate probabilities from LSEG shows a 65% probability of a hike in May 2026. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG However when looking at the implied rate through December 2026, LSEG data is showing 49 bps of rate hikes.This leaves the door open for the RBA to potentially hike rates two more times this year, which bodes well for Australian Dollar bulls as the Aussie looks to build on its recent rally, especially against the US Dollar.Implied Rates Through December 2026 zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Growth Trade-off: To combat the "sticky" inflation, the RBA has downgraded its GDP growth outlook to 1.6% starting mid-next year, acknowledging that higher rates will eventually weigh on the broader economy.Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical perspective, AUD/USD had breached the 0.7000 mark prior to the rate decision before a pullback left the pair trading at 0.6950 heading into the decision.The pair has since reclaimed the 0.7000 handle but does face a challenge.There is room for a deeper pullback before the rally to the upside continues and this may depend on the US Dollars performance in the days ahead.A daily candle close above the 0.7000 mark may give bulls hope of further gains however failure to do so could open the door for a deeper pullback.If a deeper pullback does materialize, the 0.6750 handle may be of particular interest as this is where the bullish rally really gained traction around January 21, 2026.Over the longer-term though, the Aussie is poised for further gains. A divergence in monetray policy with the RBA hiking while other central banks look toward cuts is expected to provide continued support for the AUD.Immediate upside resistance is provided by the January highs at 0.7094.AUD/USD Daily Chart, February 3, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (03/02/2026): Join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest market headlines, including a recent trade deal struck between the United States and India, developments in the precious metal markets, and a choice by the BLS to postpone Friday's NFP report. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks diverge strongly in this morning's Market actionUS Equity flows turn to traditional sectors after years of Tech outperformanceExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI beat (52.6 vs. 48.5 expected) has brought traditional and defensive sectors back into the spotlight for equity investors. zoom_out_map US Manufacturing PMI since 2022 – Source: TradingEconomics After a volatile January, traders are still searching for the dominant trend heading into 2026.So far, only one theme stands out: global divergence and increasingly concentrated trends.Passive investing is a strategy of the past.For nearly 15 years, buying almost anything — especially technology — was a winning strategy. Tech has outperformed all major indices since the 2000s, a trend reinforced by today’s consumption patterns and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven. zoom_out_map Per Sector Performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView However, with the AI narrative now largely priced in, equities are reacting less to earnings beats and more to longer-term macro and valuation themes.One such development is the resilience of the global economy despite tariffs and recurring trade tensions.In that context, the US continues to beat growth expectations, providing a strong demand backstop.When highly valued areas of the market (AI and Tech) appear fairly priced while growth remains solid, capital naturally rotates toward more resilient, lower-beta sectors. Relative valuation and wealth effects begin to lift previously overlooked parts of the market. zoom_out_map Dow Jones to Nasdaq Relative Strength – Source: TradingView That rotation is exactly what we are seeing today.This does not look like rising risk aversion, but rather a deliberate rebalancing toward defensive and traditional equities — a theme that has been building since October 2025.Let’s dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as profit-taking flows could confirm the broader range. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Selloff takes a break, but it is over?Bitcoin breaks $80,000! Altcoins suffer – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookOil prices down 6% as US-Iran de-escalation hopes cool market heat… Is it the end of the line for bulls? zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:57 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 3, 2026 As you can see, sectors the most closely related to tech are struggling, leaving space for the traditionals to outperform (Producer Manufacturing, Consumer Durables, ...)Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the very strong action in the morning, watch for the profit-taking at the highs which could maintain the broad rangebound picture (48,400 to 49,700).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 49,200 to 49,35049,400 morning highsATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700All-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 49,109Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (Bull above, Bearish below)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The picture in Nasdaq is looking quite ugly after failing to reach October all-time highs, suggesting the 24,500 to 25,800 range holds well.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMid-range Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250Monday lows 25,08424,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The range (6,800 to 7,000) is also holding strongly for the S&P 500 – Watch to reactions when prices reach the lower bound.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020Support LevelsKey Pivot 6,945 to 6,975Minor-Support 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Greenland lows)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals are recovering after historic dropsWill the trend simply resume after the event or is it just the beginning?Exploring Silver (XAG/USD) in-depth to spot where the action stands Traders are still trying to grasp the impact of last Friday’s insane 7-sigma move in the metals market.In hindsight, several forces combined to trigger the tumble.First comes the inevitable gravity problem.When trends turn too parabolic, wings get burned — and when they do, the fall is brutal.Market makers and traders enter a psychological standoff over who will be left holding the hot potato. Between real demand and aggressive short sellers, whoever needs to buy ends up paying whatever price is required.As a result, offers get lifted aggressively, market makers find themselves short, and hedging flows fuel spectacular upside spirals. But once enough supply finally appears, buyers stop paying up. When that happens, prices stop rising — and shortly after, everyone starts wondering why prices were there in the first place. zoom_out_map 7-Sigma events in Markets are rare occurrences What ultimately pushed offers lower was a combination of factors:The end of a very strong seasonal trend for metals in January (when industrials typically place annual orders), exacerbated month-end profit-taking (with the preceding high profits generated), and finally the nomination of Kevin Warsh, which introduced fresh volatility.Discover: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?The reaction in the US dollar also matters here. The Fed Chair nomination seems to have restored some confidence — at least for now — helping to smooth out the most extreme market moves that were seen in early 2026.Metals have since found temporary footing at key levels.Gold stalled near $4,400, Platinum around $2,000, and Silver — today’s focus — came within a hair of $70 after a 41% drawdown. zoom_out_map Metals Performance since November 2025 – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) In perspective, the correction merely dragged metals back to early-2026 price levels.Silver is still up a sneaky 80% since November. This isn't nothing!The lesson here is to be extra careful when 10% moves up and down become the norm; something will inevitably break.Metals are still supported by a multitude of fundamental factors, including high government deficits, strong economic demand (and supply bottlenecks) and international turmoil – Don't expect prices to come back to 2025 lows, but prices could still be elevated.Let’s now dive into a multi-timeframe, in-depth analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) to assess where today’s 11% rebound leaves price action — and whether a durable bottom is forming, or if more volatility lies ahead. Read More:Bitcoin breaks $80,000! Altcoins suffer – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookOil prices down 6% as US-Iran de-escalation hopes cool market heat… Is it the end of the line for bulls?Silver posts worst day on record, crude slips lower & latest from Trump and FedSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart Chart – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) How significant is that Friday bar!Silver had been evolving in a steep upward channel since November 2025 and has officially broken it to the downside.Still, the extreme move lower saw some dip-buying right around its 50-Day Moving Average (currently at $75.92).Now mean-reverting higher, bulls will face a quintessential test at the $89 to $92 Pivot Area – Failing to breach back above before the end of the week hints at Bull Failure and could lead to more downward action.The RSI is showing a retest of the neutral level – moving back to above helps the rebound case but rejecting here would add further pressure.Any close below the 50-Day MA could easily correct to $60 as not much volume has consolidated prices in between. Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) Prices breached back above the 4H 200-MA but it would be early to say that the rebound it decisive:The RSI is now turning lower, sign of bull exhaustion and could confirm the current pullback being a Dead Cat BounceThe past two 4H Candles have failed to breach $89, a micro-double top.Watch what happens if bears push prices back below the 4H 200-MALevels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Higher Timeframe Pivot $89 to $92 (immediate resistance)Session highs $89.17Channel retest $96.00Key psychological resistance $100 to $104$118 to $120 Current ATH ResistanceSupport Levels:2025 Record Mini-Pivot/Support $80 to $8450-Day MA $75.90Major 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $58.00 to $60$53.50 to $54 October Resistance now Major Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) Silver is showing signs of uncertainty on shorter timeframe as Buying momentum stalls.And the best thing to do when uncertainty prevails is to make scenarios.Holding the upward trendline would help to reach new session highs (further rise)Rejecting here would test the $84 trendBreaking it offers further correction potential (look at the $71.20 lows)Rebounding from there hints at a more solid rebound (look at $96, Bull Channel retest)Any break below the Monday open lows would point to a test of the $65 Point.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - NFP forecast, Fed's new direction, RBA rate hike risk, BoE/ECB pause and big tech earningsOil prices have slipped 6% today in what is a poor start to the month. This comes after an impressive rally in the month of January.WTI finished January with gains of around 14% but that turned sour this morning with a 5% plunge in the Asian session. This sharp reversal appears to be driven by a combination of diplomatic shifts in the Middle East and strategic supply decisions by major producers.The primary drivers behind the drop The most immediate catalyst for the price drop is the sudden cooling of tensions between the United States and Iran. Just a week ago, markets were pricing in a significant risk of military conflict after US President Donald Trump hinted at potential strikes.However, remarks made by the President on Sunday expressing hope for a new deal with Iran with a meeting scheduled for Friday this week which has dramatically pivoted investor sentiment.The prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough suggests a potential easing of sanctions. If an agreement is reached, Iran, a major OPEC member, could legally return significant volumes of crude to the global market.This "peace premium" being removed from the price of oil has led to a rapid sell-off, as traders re calibrate for a more well-supplied market than previously feared.OPEC + maintains the status quo Adding to the downward pressure, OPEC+ concluded its latest meeting with a decision to keep production levels unchanged for March. While the group’s "cautious approach" is intended to maintain market stability, it failed to provide the bullish spark some investors were hoping for. By reaffirming a freeze on planned production increases, OPEC+ signaled that they anticipate seasonally weaker demand in the coming months.Taking a look at US drilling activity, it appears to be in a slump because low prices are making new investments less attractive for energy companies. Recent data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active oil rigs held steady at 411 last week, which is significantly lower than this time last year.While there was a tiny increase in gas drilling, the overall number of active rigs remains 36 below last year's levels. Because experts expect there to be more oil on the market than people actually need this year (a "surplus"), US oil production growth is expected to stay limited throughout 2026.Forward Outlook - bulls or bears to prevail? The future of oil prices currently hangs on two major variables: the reality of US-Iran diplomacy and the strength of the US dollar.Geopolitical Volatility: While de-escalation is the current theme, financial institutions like DBS and Deutsche Bank warn that the situation remains fragile. Should diplomatic efforts fail or military rhetoric resurface, a renewed rally beyond the $70/barrel mark cannot be ruled out.The "Warsh Effect": The US dollar has been gaining strength following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for international buyers, creating a natural headwind for price growth.In the short term, markets are looking toward upcoming US inventory data from the API and EIA to gauge domestic demand.While the current trend is bearish, the structural risks in the Middle East suggest that the "pause" in the oil rally may be temporary rather than a permanent reversal.For now, investors are moving with caution, balancing the hope of a diplomatic solution against the ever-present threat of supply disruptions. Keep an eye on developments between Iran-US when they meet on Friday in Turkey.Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI drop is flirting with a close below the 200-day MA.This would not be the first time that WTI has broken above the 200-day MA and reversed the move in a few days.The last time WTI traded above the 200-day MA was in July 2025 when the price only managed to hold above the 200-day MA for two days before slipping back below for a prolonged period.All is not lost for bulls though as the 100-day MA may provide the support that bulls are looking for as it rests on the psychological 60.00 handle, making this area a key confluence zone.The period-14 RSI is just shy of the neutral 50 level and if it holds above this is a positive signs for bulls as it is seen as a sign of bullish momentum.WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart, February 2, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to keep an eye onSupport:60.0058.5057.00Resistance:62.3264.7366.15Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (02/02/2026): As we welcome in another week of trading, we join Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast Jonny Hart for the latest market news and analysis. In today’s episode, we discuss a meltdown in the price of precious metals, falling crude prices, and the latest from President Trump and the Federal Reserve. Join Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Markets find a basis to rebound after past end-of-week high volatilityUS Indexes attempt another test of their record highs as positive data lifts sentimentExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Markets are digesting the Friday announcement of Powell's replacement as the next Fed Chair, taking effect in May 2026. In case you missed it, Kevin Warsh will take his spot.Discover: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?The announcement brought a wave of high volatility, combined with record pace January month-end flows. Metals were subject to a now-famous 6-sigma event (where volatility exceeds 99.9996% of previous observations), taking Silver back to $78 and Gold back below $5,000.In parallel, the US Dollar spiked higher, reversing a large part of its end-January move lower as participants saw Warsh's nomination as a positive for the Greenback.The 2006-2011 Governor was seen as a "hard money hawk", so his appointment was initially seen as negative for stocks and risk-assets, particularly given movements in Metals and Cryptocurrencies.Seen as a reformist, the next Fed Chair will undoubtedly contribute to drastic changes in the way the central bank operates – the rest will be to know if it gets a positive response from investor sentiment.Being appointed by Trump and remaining close to the current Administration, it would be surprising to see the opposite.Propped higher by Iran tensions turning into discussions, a very positive surprise on the Manufacturing PMIs (52.6 vs 48.5 exp!) and month-beginning reallocations, US Benchmarks are heading to their recent highs in the morning session. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:29 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 2, 2026 Except for struggling big names like Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia or even Disney (-4.30%), the daily picture is broadly bullish. A good sign to start the new month.Let's dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Markets Today: Euro Zone output rebounds, gold and silver extend slide, FTSE 100 resilientMarkets Weekly Outlook - NFP forecast, Fed's new direction, RBA rate hike risk, BoE/ECB pause and big tech earningsChart alert: Gold extends plunge by 9%, approaching $4,405 inflection level for potential minor bounceDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The bullish impulse from this morning officially broke the downtrend from the past week, with the 4H looking strong after the lower wick at the Open.Many factors are to be considered to trade Equities these days, between earnings (season now ending), geopolitical and political events colliding.Still, the DJIA holds its rangebound picture near the all-time highs (48,400 to 49,700), sign of investor resilience despite the uncertainty.Now testing the upper bound of its intraday resistance (49,350), bulls will want to close above the level for chances to break its record – The RSI and current candle point towards that direction but watch for a potential rejection.Keep in mind that the trading range holding would imply selling flows around 49,600 to 49,700.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Resistance 49,200 to 49,350 (testing)49,400 morning highsATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700All-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsChristmas ATH Daily Mom. Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (4H MA 50 at 49,080)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,70048,713 Session lowsKey Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now retesting its Friday highs, coming in at a key test around 25,800.This level acted as a key resistance since October 2025 and held pressure on the Index so managing to hold above provides a cleaner setup for a bullish breakout.For now, like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq remains in a wide range, hence when approaching key resistance and support levels, look for mean-reversion plays.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,824Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (testing)26,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMini-support 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,470Wednesday lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView As evidenced in our Friday analysis, the S&P 500 is outperforming its peers and is on pace to retest its all-time highs.Still, the index will be restricted by similar macro factors as Nasdaq and the Dow. In the meantime, it looks like bulls are pushing for a test of the 7,020 record which should be confirmed if the session closes above 7,000.The next levels of interest are located around 7,080.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020Potential Breakout targets (Fibonacci-Extensions)1.362 = 7,0801.618 = 7,119Support LevelsKey Pivot 6,945 to 6,975Minor-Support 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Greenland lows)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on sentiment on Monday!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold has entered a disorderly liquidation phase: Driven primarily by forced unwinding of leveraged long positions rather than a shift in Fed policy expectations.Margin hikes and order flows, not Fed politics, are the real catalyst: CME’s increase in gold and silver futures margin requirements sharply raised capital costs, choking off bullish risk appetite and triggering cascading sell-offs, while US 2-year yields signal no hawkish repricing.Near-term setup favours a tactical bounce, with clear risk levels: Gold is approaching the critical US$4,405 support, reinforced by multiple technical confluences and extreme volatility readings; a hold above this level opens scope for a minor mean-reversion rebound, while a break lower signals further downside. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600,” published on 30 January 2026.The price actions of Gold (XAU/US) have staged the expected corrective decline on last Friday, 30 January 2026, to hit the second intermediate support at US$4,757 as highlighted.The yellow precious metal printed an intraday low at US$4,679 and closed the US session at US$4,895 on Friday, 30 January 2026, recording a daily loss of 9%, its steepest drop since 1983.Order flows are the main catalyst for the steep losses, not Kevin Warsh zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasury yield medium-term trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Several media reports have highlighted that US President Trump’s official announcement to nominate ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair is likely the driver that triggered the rampant sell-off in gold and silver due to his past remarks on his preference for a smaller US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which may lead to an indirect tightening of liquidity conditions.However, the US Treasury market does not imply such a narrative that “Kevin Warsh is going to be a new hawkish Fed Chair”.The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy stance, did not trade higher last Friday; instead, it dropped by 4 basis points to close lower at 3.52%, and remained below the medium-term range resistance of 3.63% in place since 30 October 2025 (see Fig. 1).In today’s Asia session, 2 February 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to extend its losses by 9% to print an intraday low of US$4.402 at the time of writing due to a hike in metal futures margins announced by CME Group over the weekend.COMEX gold futures margins (1oz) are raised from 6 per cent to 8 per cent, while COMEX 5000 silver futures (SI) are set to increase to 15 per cent from 11 per cent.Hence, such increases in margin requirements are likely lead to a further unwinding of speculative long positions in Gold and Silver.Higher capital outlays to sustain or extend long positions abruptly choked off bullish risk appetite, unleashing a cascading liquidation in Gold (XAU/USD).Let's now look at the short-term technical chart to decipher the near-term (1 to 3 days) trajectoryShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor mean reversion rebound after overextended decline zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,742 (also the 20-day moving average) is likely to increase the odds of a minor mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,942 and US$5,169 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 26 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 intraday low) (see Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below US$4,405 invalidates the minor bullish recovery scenario for a further extension of the corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,285 and US$4,129.Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support is defined by a confluence of different elements that point to a similar level of around US$4,405; the 50-day moving average, the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025, and a Fibonacci extension of the current drop, measured from the current all-time high of 29 January 2026.Hourly Bollinger Bandwidth has spiked to an extreme 15.25, indicating a volatility climax and suggesting the recent price sell-off is overextended in the near term. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US President finally gave his answer for who will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman of the Board.Trump loves a good surprise. Just after announcing he would provide the decision next week, turns out he did so in the early morning through a Truth Social Post.Kevin Warsh will be serving as the Chairman for the Fed for a first four-year term beginning in May 2026. The announcement came with swift Market reactions – Gold and other metals are falling off a cliff, Stocks gapped lower in today's open and the Dollar is heading higher.This definitely looks like "Sell the news" flows – the rest for traders will be to see if this continues or not. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView We will dive into Mr Warsh's past endeavours, what he represents for the Federal Reserve and our expectations on the effect he should have on Markets. Discover:Markets Today: European economies expand, gold and silver plunge as markets await Fed Chair announcement and PCE dataMetals flashing red after record runs – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookChart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600Who is Kevin Warsh?His past Kevin Warsh’s career is a distinguished blend of high-level academia, private sector expertise, and public service. He holds an A.B. in public policy from Stanford University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School, where he focused on the intersection of law and economics – A clean, classic background for somebody who could run the Fed. FYI, Powell also held a Law Degree.Shortly after his completing his studies, Warsh distinguished himself at Morgan Stanley, where he served as Executive Director in the M&A department from 1995. Warsh quickly became a specialist in structuring complex capital market transactions across diverse industries for the Financial Institution. His competence for Markets caught the eye of the George W. Bush administration, leading to his appointment as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in 2002 being only 32.In 2006, Kevin got appointed at the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve, being the youngest to reach the position, which drew some criticism.Still, being well connected to Wall Street after his stay at MS, he quickly got accepted as "invaluable" for the Fed.Warsh became Ben Bernanke’s (Fed Chair during the period) primary "emissary" to the financial world during the 2008 meltdown. His unique ability to speak the "language of the markets" made him the central bank’s most vital conduit to Wall Street CEOs and global regulators.Just the fact that he remained at the Fed from 2006 to 2011 proves he was well-suited for the Job. It wasn't the easiest period in financial markets. zoom_out_map Dow Jones from 2006 to 2012 and Warsh's first Fed term – Source; TradingView He also served as the Fed's representative to the G20 and for Emerging and Advanced economies of Asia before resigning in March 2011.After his first stay at the Fed, Warsh transitioned into heavyweight intellectual roles in many establishments and foundations. At the Hoover Institution, he became a prominent advocate for regime change in monetary policy, often criticizing the Fed’s long-term reliance on balance sheet expansion. One of his most notable global achievements was an independent report, the Warsh Review, commissioned by the Bank of England which increased the Central Bank's transparency policy.Fun fact, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney was the Bank of England's Governor during that period.He also was part of the favorites to be the Fed Chair in 2018, but the first Trump Administration preferred to go towards safety with Jerome Powell (as he was still deemed too young for the position).The new Fed Chair still kept close ties with the US President, taking us to today. Let's now see what he represents for Markets and how it can affect the US Dollar and other assets.Warsh and his impact on Markets This section can either age like Wine or Milk and will, of course, be subject to extensive reviews as his term commences and his first speeches as Fed Chair get delivered.Kevin Warsh is not Wall Street's preferred choice (Rick Rieder held that role), but still represents Respect and Credibility for his role.The Nominee was known for his relatively hawkish views towards the end of his first term at the Fed, notably getting named a "hard money hawk" by CNBC.But being close to the Trump Administration, particularly today, implies sacrificing some of one's impartial judgment. Kevin Warsh is an advocate for tax and regulatory reforms, so as long as Trump's fiscal policies aren't too extreme, he should stay mostly in line with the President.Something positive for the US Dollar and fiat currencies in general is that Warsh tends to be a realist rather than a dove-maximalist. He did express his discontent with the second round of Quantitative Easing.A good place to look for Market reactions to his credibility regarding the Dollar is the Dollar itself.The DXY (Dollar Index) has been strengthening again after the pre-FOMC super-tumble. As long as the Index remains below 97.00, it could just be classical mean-reversion. For now, the rebound looks solid. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indexes have opened lower but I wouldn't take this as a red flag. Stocks did rise after the FOMC meeting and despite yesterday's selling session, benchmarks rebounded and largely remain close to their all-time highs.What you are seeing today is the result of profit-taking ahead of a high-risk weekend (Iran, or more Trump Admin madness anywhere else).If Warsh follows Trump's demands, he should help Equities to rise on the long-run. The President loves to base his own performance looking at Markets for those who did not know, so Trump surely will push for his nominee to do the same. The rest will of course also depend on the US Economy and global risk-appetite (and lack of any major Crisis).Regarding Fiat currency credibility, it will be tough to say.Kevin Warsh isn't the favored candidate to reduce the Fed's Balance Sheet – So that's about that for Fiscal reduction concerns.Still, his realistic views may help with the recent Debasement Trade trends, part of the reason why we saw steep profit-taking around Metals today. zoom_out_map Metas Performance today (11:32 A.M.). January 30, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The yield curve is also steepening further, with the shorter-term yields (3M to 5Y) going lower while the long end (10Y and more) is rising – Implying pricing for more cuts today and more inflation later.This is a repricing for further dovishness from the Trump-nominee, not seen as such a Yes-Man as Kevin Hassett, but also not a candidate who will stand up to the President like Powell. zoom_out_map Daily US Treasury Yields movement. January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView For the rest, time will tell. Risk-appetite is looking timid amid the past two years of relentless rallies across asset classes and geopolitical instability.His first address, particularly his first Press Conference as Fed Chair (June 17, 2026), will be quintessential for Markets.Tribute to Jerome Powell Jerome Powell will surely go down as one of the most popular Fed Chairs.Known as a Market stabilizer, Powell would always push for the lowest volatility outcome over his 8 years as Fed Chair, may it be through the first rounds of post-Great Financial Crisis rate tightening in 2018-2019 or the quick U-turn towards zero-rate policies the year after, as COVID struck hard.Even when Participants thought he was a dove, he did not hesitate to show his hawkish wings during the 2022 hiking cycle and maintained that tone until inflation abated. zoom_out_map Fed Funds Rate since 2015 – Source: FRED He was a Swiss Army knife at the head of the most important central bank and held his role with righteousness—a very talented speaker who always knew how to shapeshift curve balls and tricky questions during press conferences. Or even attacks from his President.Markets will surely miss Jerome Powell as Fed Chair – now we'll see if he wants to stay on the Board of Governors, with his term still valid until January 31, 2028.He will also be remembered for years of good memes. I'm part of Generation Z, so this one is a bit more personal. zoom_out_map Money printer go "PRRRRRRRR" Safe Trades and wishing good luck to Kevin Warsh (and the Financial System)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is struggling below the $88,000 level and recently dipped under $85,000The slump is attributed to institutional selloffs (>$160M in ETF outflows this week), the US Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates, and the strong performance of Gold as the preferred safe-haven asset.Key resistance is at $90,000, while a sustained drop below $85,000 opens the door to $80,000 and potentially $75,000.Most Read: Gold falls by 10%! Markets are going ablaze amid US-Iran War fears and post-FOMC flowsBitcoin is having a difficult start to the end of January. The world's most famous cryptocurrency is currently struggling to stay above $88,000.For many market participants, this is a worrying sign, as the price has dropped from higher levels earlier in the week at a time when the US Dollar has reached four-year lows.Looking at the week thus far and Bitcoin is only down around 1.6% at the time of writing. Given the volatility we are seeing across the board, this is surprising to say the least. zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Why is Bitcoin struggling? There are several main reasons why Bitcoin is feeling the pressure right now and perhaps one of the more surprising ones is Gold prices.While Bitcoin is struggling, gold has been doing very well, reaching record highs over $5,500 an ounce. Investors looking for a "safe" place to hide from economic trouble are currently choosing gold over Bitcoin.The precious metal is up over $1000 for the month of January alone.For much of the past decade, Bitcoin proponents have championed the asset as "Digital Gold," arguing that its fixed supply and decentralized nature make it the ultimate hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation.However, events in late January 2026 have proven that this isn't necessarily true. While gold prices have jumped to record highs, Bitcoin has been stuck in a slump, losing about 30% of its value since its peak in October. This suggests that Bitcoin isn't behaving like gold when things get rocky in the real world.The question is will this dent the appetite of Bitcoin for a while longer as a hedge, particularly from the institutional side?Bitcoin ETFs have seen a lot of money leaving lately. This week alone, about $160 million has been pulled out of these funds. When these big players sell, it puts downward pressure on the price. zoom_out_map Source: Farside Investors Whether this selloff leads to a more prolonged one remains to be seen and this could have a bearing on where Bitcoin prices head to next.Another factor behind the recent malaise could be down to Wednesday's US Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed decided to keep interest rates the same (between 3.50% and 3.75%). While they didn't raise rates, they also didn't lower them.The higher rate environment makes safety more appealing while also leaving the retail side of market participants with less disposable income to invest in the higher risk higher reward assets like Bitcoin.What is the Outlook for the Future? The next few days will be very important for Bitcoin. The Risk of a Bigger Drop: Some analysts warn that if the US government shutdown lasts a long time, Bitcoin could fall much further. If people continue to panic, the price might even slide toward $60,000. This would be a 30% drop from where it is now.Looking at the technical picture and Bitcoin’s position as of January 29, 2026, is precarious. The asset has failed to consolidate above the $89,000 mark.Earlier in the day we saw a broader market selloff with Bitcoin dropping below the $85000 mark, before recovering to trade at $85460 at the time of writing.The drop also means that Bitcoin is now around $3000 below the 50-day MA which rests at $88678.The period-14 RSI on the four-hour chart also dipped into oversold territory but is attempting to move back above the key 30-level. A move back above may be seen as a sign that bullish momentum may be returning.If that is the case it will be interesting to see if bulls have the power to push beyond the $90000 which has held price back since Tuesday January 20, 2026.A clean and sustained break above the $90000 level is needed and even then there is a host of resistance beyond that which has proven difficult to navigate for Bitcoin in recent months.The $95000-$97000 range in particular has been tough and will likely be so once again if bulls are able to take charge.However, a four-hour candle close below the $85000 handle does open up a potential run toward $80000 and then the $75000 and $60000 mark.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 29, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It was surprising to see such straightforward flows during a volatile period.While black swans are unpredictable, the market's capacity to ignore risk until something breaks can be surprising.So what changed in the past hour?Metals rallied to new highs following Powell's press conference yesterday. The reaction was aggressive given the context. Powell highlighted US economic strength and defended Federal Reserve independence, factors that typically support the Dollar.Explaining the post-FOMC surge was difficult as the rate pause was not dovish.Yet, Gold rose 5% to $5,602, suggesting the debasement trade was spiraling. Recent volatility indicates otherwise. zoom_out_map Gold (CFD) 30m Chart – January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold corrected by 10% from its highs, dragging Silver and Platinum lower. Copper remains the outlier, reaching new highs in today's session.Is the uptrend over? Tough to say for now, but what's for sure is that up-and-down spikes have been getting more common as of late, indicating unstable Market conditions and potential changes in recent dynamics.Seeing rangebound conditions here would make sense – On the bigger picture, watch for breakouts to today's session up and down levels to get an idea of where flows are heading. zoom_out_map Morning Session moves in Metal Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Stocks are also diving lower, particularly recent AI performers.Disappointing Microsoft earnings dampened equity sentiment, sending the Nasdaq down 2.51% at its trough. zoom_out_map Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Daily Chart – Source: TradingView MSFT is down 12%, weighing heavily on the technology sector. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:17 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 29, 2026 Nasdaq sold off harshly, rebounding slightly in the mid-session zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The picture in equities isn't looking very bullish across different Benchmarks – Watch out for volatility in upcoming sessions ahead of Weekend risk.The US Dollar doesn't know where to go zoom_out_map US Dollar (DXY) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView – January 29, 2026 While Oil flows might appear linked to Iran, a purely geopolitical driver would typically boost precious metals as safe havens.The current correction appears driven by a confluence of risks: post-FOMC repositioning, Iran tensions, weak earnings, and anxiety regarding the next Fed Chair nomination.Discover: WTI explodes to $66 as Iran tensions boil – US Oil OutlookCryptos are getting rejected harshly zoom_out_map Bitcoin 4H Chart – January 29, 2026 – Source: Tradingview zoom_out_map Current bloodbath session in Crypto – Courtesy of Finviz A detailed Crypto piece will be releasing soon.Keep a very close eye on the headlines to monitor Market developments.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil jumps 5% as traders predict attacks on Iran are getting closer by the secondExploring Technical Analysis for a rally in the commodityWTI could still be rising further – checking potential levels for breakouts Oil is a complex commodity to trade – affected by numerous countries, suppliers, refineries, economic activity, and, these days, conflicts.Iran has been a boiling pot for tensions since 1979, with the Islamic Regime extending extremist policies in the Middle East, supplementing small regional tensions to sponsoring full-capacity armies like in Lebanon with Hezbollah, Gaza with Hamas, or even further in Yemen with the Houthis.The issue is when such policies come at the cost of Iran's own civilian population, victim of extreme inflation, pollution, and resource scarcity (water levels are at 60-year lows) – The Iranian Rial has lost 97% of its value against the US Dollar in about a year. zoom_out_map Iranian Inflation rate (until October 2025) – Source: TradingEconomics With such conditions, without counting the public punishments and executions for regime dissenters, the population had seen many violent protests throughout the past many years.But today looks even worse. An estimated 30,000 deaths are reported amid the recent revolts, and the toll could be even worse.These reports and global US policies have pushed the Trump Administration to consider an imminent intervention to assist the Iranian population and eventually overthrow the Iranian government. zoom_out_map Odds for a US strike in Iran – Source: Polymarket What concerns Markets is that Iran is a top-6 global oil producer and holds the second-largest natural gas reserves. If it were only that, Markets could be looking away after adding a small risk premium.The larger threat, however, is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which all energy-commodity shipping to Asia passes, accounting for around 20% of global Oil and gas flows.During the 1980s, the Tanker War disrupted the Strait heavily, and attacks on tankers there could have a significant impact on Global Energy prices.The current flows and tensions are also assisting Metals on their way to continued all-time highs. More on this coming up during today's session.As traders price in more imminent interventions from the US, which could signal a larger regional war, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine whether technicals point to continued upside or if prices are approaching relative extremes. Read More:Markets Today: Japan Consumer Morale Improves. Gold Retreats from $5600 Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes BreakoutUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – January 29, 2026. Source: TradingView As was expressed in our previous Oil piece, the 200-Day Moving Average ($62.59) offered a significant breakout signal after getting breached yesterday.With the price action remaining solidly above its $58.50 Iran-Premium support, bulls have pushed for a daily tight bull channel in a 13% weekly rise.Still, recent spikes to $66.56 highs have found rejection from increasingly overbought levels – As long as no attacks materialize, further upside could be limited. Let's discover why on shorter timeframes.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 29, 2026. Source: TradingView With the recent spike in the action, RSI levels have turned into overbought conditions – logical when looking at the recent amassement of Military assets in the region.The issue is that such volatility-premium spikes can be tricky to trade – A quick shift from Market maker pricing, demand explosions and headlines can trigger swift moves.However, if nothing happens, the premium can quickly draw lower.To spot if any attacks actually materialize, look at today's peak.Any rise above $66.56 points at an actual attack and could see WTI extend to $78, similar level as during the 12-Day War.In the meantime, if nothing happens, a retest of the $62.30 to $63.40 Pivot zone could largely occur and would provide a decent pullback entry to avoid entering at extremes. Stop entries on breakouts could also be warranted.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsSession Spike $66.56Minor Resistance $65 to $66 (current test)September 2025 Major resistance $67 (could get breached if US attacks)Psychological Resistance $70$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport Levels$64.00 Tight Channel LowsMay 2025 range Key Pivot $62.30 to $63.43May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Premium Support area $58.50 to $591H Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 1H Chart – January 29, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking even closer, the $65-$66 Resistance level will act as key area of interest:Remaining within the range through today and this weekly close would point to a continued breakout (lower odds if nothing new happens)Rejecting it however points to a retracement at least to the Main Pivot ZoneAny sudden breakout above implies an actual attack – The premium is now fully priced in, hence any further reactions would confirm that the risk is on.Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As of this morning, January 28, 2026, the gold market is experiencing historic volatility as the Federal Reserve prepares to release its policy statement at 2:00 PM EST. A historic milestone as the market navigates a volatile landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.Gold & market performance today Historic Peak: Gold hit a fresh all-time high, trading near $5,312.00 earlier this morning, continuing a parabolic rally that has seen the metal gain over 15% in just seven trading sessions. As of 10 AM EST, gold is trading around $5,200–$5,280, showing some intraday volatility as traders position themselves for the FOMC decision.Safe-Haven Surge: The recent rally is being fueled by a "crisis of confidence" in the US dollar, which has hit a four-year low. This follows signals from the White House favoring a weaker dollar to bolster exports.Silver prices have mirrored gold's historic rally today, January 28, 2026, currently trading above $112.28 per ounce as the market reaches for new heights ahead of the FOMC announcement. The metal hit a fresh all-time high of $117.69 earlier this week, driven by a "perfect storm" of global supply shortages—exacerbated by China’s recent export ban—and surging industrial demand from the AI and solar sectors.Impact of the FOMC meeting (January 28, 2026 - Expected 2:00 PM EST) While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% (According to the futures markets' positioning - CME FedWatch tool), and since the interest rate expectations are largely priced in, the real impact will come from the Fed's "forward guidance" and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The "Hawkish Hold" Risk: If Powell suggests the cutting cycle is nearing an end and that 3.5% is the "neutral rate" (the floor for rate cuts), and strikes a hawkish tone on sticky inflation, gold could see a shift in sentiment.Dovish Signals: Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges economic cooling or signals a willingness to keep cutting rates despite current volatility, it may support the current gold status.Fed Independence: With an investigation into the central bank making headlines and rumors of an imminent new Fed Chair nominee, any sign of the Fed "bowing" to political pressure for lower rates could further fuel the recent appreciation..Read more: https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/gold-fomc-rally-warning/Technical analysis XAU/USD 4 Hour chart zoom_out_map Source: Tradingview.com XAU/USD 4 Hour chart Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the bottom of your chart has reached an extreme level of 77.01, significantly above the typical "overbought" threshold of 70. This suggests the market is currently "overheated" and may be vulnerable to a profit-taking correction if the FOMC announcement today provides any hawkish surprises.​Multiple price gaps have been identified on the chart, with Gap 1 (January 2nd) and Gap 2 (January 16th) representing breakaway and runaway gaps, respectively. However, the most recent one, Gap 3, can potentially be an exhaustion gap.​Key Levels to Watch, daily Support and resistance levelsPP: 5128.33S1: 5066.16S2: 4951.70S3: 4889.52R1: 5242.79R2: 5304.97R3: 5419.43Register to attend our live webinars:https://www.oanda.com/us-en/trading/webinars/live-market-analysis/market-live-analysis-with-moheb-hanna/ Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Wall Street expects a record quarter for Apple with ~$138.5B in revenue and a focus on the iPhone 17 "supercycle" and Services growth.Key areas of scrutiny include a potential rebound in China sales and updates on the long-term AI Strategy.Bullish Scenario: A "beat and raise" could push the stock toward $270-$288.Bearish Scenario: Missing high iPhone expectations or weak guidance could cause the stock to break below critical support at $206-$210.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Navigating the Current Climate as Gold Taps $5300/oz, Silver Eyes Wedge BreakoutAs Apple Inc. (AAPL) prepares to report its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, January 29 after market close.Wall Street will be watching with intrigue no doubt as despite a sluggish start to the year for the stock, which is down roughly 6-9% year-to-date expectations are high.Analysts project the tech giant will deliver its largest year-over-year revenue jump in four years, driven by a robust holiday season, the iPhone 17 cycle, and double-digit growth in its Services division.What to Expect? Wall Street consensus points to a record-breaking quarter for Apple.Revenue: Analysts expect revenue to land around $138.5 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 10-12% year-over-year. This would easily eclipse the previous record of $124.3 billion set in Q1 2025.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates for EPS are pegged at $2.67, up roughly 11% from $2.40 in the year-ago quarter.Gross Margin: Investors will look for margins to remain steady between 47-48%, though any impact from rising memory costs or tariffs will be scrutinized. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda, Google Gemini, Data Source from LSEG, Yahoo Finance Key Areas to Focus On - Segment Performance Analysis While the headline numbers are critical, the narrative during the conference call specifically regarding future demand and AI will likely dictate the stock's immediate reaction.iPhone 17 Demand and the Supercycle The iPhone remains the engine of Apple’s profitability, and Q1 covers the critical holiday sales period. Analysts forecast iPhone revenue to surge by over 12% to approximately $78-$80 billion.The "supercycle" thesis relies heavily on the iPhone 17 significantly outperforming its predecessors. Early data suggests strong demand for the Pro models, and investors will want confirmation that the upgrade cycle is accelerating, particularly among the estimated 300+ million users with iPhones older than four years.The China Rebound China has been a battleground for Apple, facing stiff competition from domestic rivals like Huawei and a mixed economic backdrop. However, recent data offers a glimmer of hope: Counterpoint Research indicates Apple may have led the Chinese smartphone market in Q4 with over 20% market share.A confirmed rebound in Greater China revenue would be a major bullish signal, alleviating fears that Apple is losing its grip on its most important international market.Services Growth The Services segment (App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, etc.) is Apple’s profit growth engine. Wall Street is looking for revenue to hit roughly $30 billion, implying ~14% growth.Sustained double-digit growth here is vital to justify Apple’s premium valuation (approx. 30x forward earnings). Any deceleration could spook investors who view Services as the company's safety net against hardware cyclicality.AI Strategy and "Apple Intelligence" Artificial Intelligence remains the "wild card." While Apple has been quieter than its peers, the integration of "Apple Intelligence" and the partnership with Google (Gemini) to power Siri are central to the long-term thesis.Market participants will listen intently for updates on consumer adoption of AI features and, more importantly, how Apple plans to monetize them. Commentary on future capital expenditures related to AI servers will also be key.The path forward is not without significant obstacles. The global memory shortage, the ongoing DOJ antitrust trial, and the complexities of the European regulatory environment present real risks to the company's operating model. The "trillion-dollar tightrope" involves balancing these external pressures while continuing to deliver the "quality and resilience of earnings" that investors have come to expect.If Apple can demonstrate that it has successfully harnessed the power of generative AI to drive both hardware upgrades and high-margin recurring fees, its premium valuation may be well-justified for years to come.The more seasoned market participants are watching three main things: whether the sales recovery in China will last, how many people are buying the new AI-powered Pro phones, and the company's plan to make Siri the main controller of a system that is so connected, users will find it very hard to leave.Potential Implications for the Stock Price Apple stock is currently trading near a technical support level, testing its October 2025 lows. The market sentiment has been cautiously optimistic, but valuation concerns persist.Bullish Scenario: A "beat and raise" (beating estimates and raising guidance) combined with positive commentary on China and AI could spark a reversal, pushing the stock back toward the $270-$288 range. Analysts at JP Morgan recently raised their target to $315, citing confidence in the multi-year product cycle.Bearish Scenario: If iPhone revenue misses the high expectations or if guidance for the March quarter is tepid due to rising component costs (specifically memory), the stock could break below crucial support levels near $206-$210.Apple Daily Chart, January 28, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Bottom Line This earnings report is about more than just a holiday quarter beat; it is a litmus test for the iPhone 17's longevity and Apple's ability to maintain growth in the AI era. With the stock currently underperforming the broader tech sector in 2026, a strong report is needed to reignite investor momentum.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global tradersHuge session coming up for traders as Bank of Canada just published their rate decision and traders await for the FOMC/Earnings comboThe US Dollar is falling to 4 year lows as Trump comments on the currency Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Trends and themes change fast in the current wild Market environment.After last week's look at the end of the world as we know it, as the US Administration threatened to buy Greenland, participants are now switching back to a few immediate risks.What happens to the Fed, particularly the dollar, after this afternoon? The 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision could potentially be combined with the announcement of the next Fed Chair.With this afternoon's decision, 97% priced for a hold, Trump may want to turn the attention to what's coming up next by announcing his decision– Powell's term as chair is ending in May.Will anything happen with Iran, and how big an impact will it have on Markets?Gold is making daily records above $5,000; WTI Oil is trading to new 2026 highs above $63. A few banks have issued their warnings regarding a complacent Investor behavior despite geopolitical risks – But we're in the dip-buying age in investing so let's see how this plays out.The US dollar has been attracting quite a bit of attention in the past few weeks after tumbling at a record pace. With the latest EU-US drama, participants are harshly rejecting the Greenback, a trend that is worsening as pre-FOMC low liquidity tends to exaggerate Market moves.Even after the monday gap down, the US President said "The value of the dollar [..] is doing great", neglecting the 3% move lower that had happened throughout the past week and creating yet another flash USD sale to 4-year lows.The effect may reverse over the afternoon as Traders brace for Powell's Speech at the FOMC press conference.On the North side of the border, the Bank of Canada just held rates steady at 2.25%, with nothing too new from the Central Bank – the economy is flattening, but nothing alarming.Governor Macklem mentioned that Canada performed better than preliminary 2025 numbers indicated – the CAD is strengthening but remains just below the USD in daily performance. About 9 bps of a hike are priced through 2026; nothing to see here.With nothing new in the Rate Decision statement, traders will focus on the upcoming Press Conference. It will be interesting to hear what the Governor has to say about recent geopolitical madness and how it affects Canada's outlook.You can access the meeting here. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Navigating the Current Climate as Gold Taps $5300/oz, Silver Eyes Wedge BreakoutThree US tech stocks to watch after Nasdaq 100 bullish breakout above 25,830Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: A High-Stakes Test of Patience and PromiseNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how global Stocks indexes have profited from the drop in the US Dollar, particularly higher beta assets and stocks, taking the Nasdaq to the top – 4% in a volatile week is an impressive feat.The S&P 500 also marked fresh all-time highs just yesterday, pointing to some confusion factors – What holds stocks so high ahead of the Fed? Will such levels hold after the event?Dollar Index 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar took a 4% hit since January 16, with the move reaching extremes in yesterday's session.As was argued in our in-depth DXY analysis, pre-FOMC action could be faded as Participants come back to the Markets. Today's even will be quintessential, and of course, keep track of the Fed Chair nominee announcement.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support now Pivot97.00 Pivotal Resistance98.00 Key Resistance (+/- 100 pips)Pre-Greenland Resistance 99.25 to 99.50Support Levels95.50 to 95.70 Flash-crash Support95.565 Tuesday lows94.70 to 95.00 Psychological level93.00 Next Main SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 28, 2026 - Source: TradingView The one-way move in the Dollar Index translates well to the movement in individual Major FX pairs.The drop in the US Dollar spans between -2% against the Euro to -4% against the Australian Dollar.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 28, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie had been brought down by the performance of its neighbor but as the Bank of Canada day passes, it's regaining quite some strength.See how the CAD is recovering against its major peers in today's session – Expect more strengthening particularly if Oil prices explode from Middle East conflicts.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is speaking live.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The North American FX Pair just reached levels unseen since October 2024, period that was marked by sudden USD strength and CAD weakness.Now, the picture looks uncertain – the Canadian Dollar seems poised for some upside in 2026 which could lead to further downside in the pair but the USD is also looking at the stage of bouncing back.Hence, traders looking to profit from potential CAD strength could look at other Loonie pairs like CAD/CHF or CAD/GBP.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3650 to 1.3770 December Pivot and 20-period 4H MA1.3750 Pivotal Resistance1.37070 Descending Channel Highs1.38 Handle Resistance +/- 150 pipsSupport Levels1.3535 Session and 2-year lows1.3550 Main 2025 Support (immediate test)1.35 Key Psychological Support – Pre-2025 CAD weakening levelUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as the tone could remain spicy.Keep a close eyes on the FOMC Rate Decision and particularly Powell's Press Conference, how it moves the US Dollar.Some extra factors also maintain uncertainty regarding the next Fed Chair– And don't forget about Iran.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.