EUR/USD1.1800 (EUR 1.99 bn)1.1650 (EUR 976.48 mn)1.1575 (EUR 892.51 mn)USD/JPY156.00 (US$ 1.67 bn)155.00 (US$ 1.73 bn)153.00 (US$ 778.82 mn)GBP/USD1.3500 (GBP 500.00 mn)1.3050 (GBP 740.00 mn)USD/CHF0.8020 (US$ 180.00 mn)0.7975 (US$ 100.00 mn)USD/CAD1.3940 (US$ 1.12 bn)AUD/USD0.6665 (AUD 301.57 mn)0.6595 (AUD 400.22 mn)0.6475 (AUD 864.67 mn)NZD/USD0.5730 (NZD 926.14 mn)EUR/GBP0.8845 (EUR 200.11 mn)0.8590 (EUR 175.00 mn)Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Concerned about FX movesImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate action on FX if necessaryThe market got used to these kind of comments by now. I guess the lack of meaningful JPY strength despite an upcoming BoJ rate hike is making them even more concerned. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we just have a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, we only get the US consumer inflation expectations data from the NY Fed. After the upward spike seen in April, inflation expectations have been rolling over across all the major surveys (UMich, Conference Board and NY Fed). Central bank speakers:15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - BoE's Taylor (dovish - voter)17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Villeroy (dovish - voter)18:30 GMT/13:00 ET - BoE's Lombardelli (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan Q3 GDP revised -2.3% annualized vs -2.0% expectedWhat's the big contrarian trade for 2026? Commodities according to BofAChina posts another massive trade surplusIBM nears deal to buy Confluent at below the IPO priceMacron threatens tariffs on China "in the coming months" due to trade surplusesJapan October current account +2833b vs +3109B expectedTrump on restarting trade talks with Canada: We'll work it outJapan October labor cash earnings +2.6% vs +2.2% priorMarkets:Gold up $13 to $4209US 10-year yields flat at 4.13%WTI crude oil up 12-cents to $60.20S&P 500 futures up 0.2%JPY leads, CAD lagsThe US dollar was generally softer to start the week after Friday's strength. The yen was stronger despite the softer GDP data as the market begins to zero in on a BOJ hike next week. The moves overall for far are soft.The headline on Macron and China probably didn't get as much attention as it deserves, maybe because the market sees it as a hollow threat given the internal politics of the EU. Trump was fairly positive on Canada but there was little movement in CAD, similarly to when he broke off talks.Gold is sold to begin the week while bitcoin has traded in a wide range already from $89-92K. It's rebounded towards the top of that range after some selling as Asian markets opened. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold prices are up 60% year to date and Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is out with a bold call on hard assets, tagging energy as the ultimate contrarian play.Hartnett, the Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, is looking past the current tech euphoria and digging into the beaten-down sectors. In his latest note, he argues that the macro backdrop is shifting in favor of commodities.He believes the Trump administration’s economic policy will continue to press the economy to run economy hot. He labels the "despised oil/energy" sector as the best contrarian trade for 2026.A 60% rally in oil prices in 2026 would take WTI to $96 per barrel. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The trade war isn't hurting China as it posted another massive trade surplus in November, one of its largest ever.Surplus of USD 111.68 billion vs $90.7 billion priorUSD denominated Nov imports +1.9%USD denominated Nov exports +5.9% Nov rare earth exports 5494 tonnes vs 4343 tonnes in OctYear through Nov surplus of 7708 billion yuanThese are astonishing numbers given the trade war. China is steamrolling the global competition for exports. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shareholders of Confluent ($CFLT) might be about to have a great start to the week, though it's a sad end or the highly-touted IPO.The WSJ reports that IBM is near an $11 billion deal to buy the company. On Friday, shares closed at $23.14 with a market cap of $8 billion. That would imply a 37% premium or $31.70 per share.Shares are currently trading $28.60 after hours, up about 22%. It's not clear if the deal accounts for the $800m in net cash on Confluent's balance sheet so the ultimate per-share value could be lower to account for that."A deal could be announced as soon as Monday, the people said, cautioning that the talks could still fall apart," the WSJ writes.However, given the tone of this report, I'd wager a very high chance of a deal. For the bigger picture, Confluent acts as a central nervous system for companies, allowing their different software and apps to share data instantly as events happen. Instead of waiting for daily reports or overnight updates, Confluent connects everything in real-time—so when you buy a plane ticket, your bank, the airline app, and the ticket inventory update simultaneously and the banking software can communicate.Despite the win on Monday, this is a long-term loser for shares of CFLT. The IPO price was $36 in 2021 and rose as high as $94.97 in the following months. It traded above $30 as recently as February.Over the past four quarters, the company has posted about $1 billion in revenue but also a GAAP loss, and I'm not sure shareholders of IBM will like that. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold is up $14.40 to $4210 in early Asian trading to start the week. The main driver of gold this week will be the FOMC decision and how dovish/hawkish the messages from Powell are and the dots. A cut is all-but assured.Zooming out, the last week of low gold volatility is a real outlier over the past few months. We've been stuck close to $4200 and that can't last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Will not extend electricity rebatesDecision on Austal is imminentThe electricity comment is inflationary and the RBA should look through it but there are inflationary pressures building in 2026 and a rate hike late in the year is increasingly the base case This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In an interview on Sunday published by Los Echos, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at a US-style trade war on China.He said he spoke with Chinese officials and warned them what's coming."I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans would be forced, in the coming months, to take strong measures following the example of the United States, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products," he said.The 'coming months' part is particularly notable, though it's unclear what strings the EU could pull."I tried to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is unsustainable because they are killing their own customers, particularly by no longer importing much from us," Macron said.I've written about this before but the US might not have been just a gamechanger for US-global relations but with how the rest of the world interacts with each other. We may frequently see larger countries try to squeeze smaller trading partners, or -- in this case -- trading giants collide. The EU's goods trade deficit with China has ballooned by nearly 60% since 2019 and China is coming after the European auto market.The thing is, Europe immediately rolled over on US tariffs so it's not exactly projecting a backbone. The fragmentation of the eurozone also makes it extremely difficult to project a united front. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Good on anyone who sniffed out the Warner Brothers sale last year as it's been better than a 3x trade.The upside is now limited to $27.75 per shares, which is what Netflix bid as part of the $72 billion equity deal plus debt. It's a huge bid in a tough industry as Netflix tries to put its stamp on traditional media.The downside in WBD is now considerable as Trump weighed in on potential anti-trust questions.“I’ll be involved in that decision," Trump said Sunday.“They have a very big market share,” Trump said. “And when they have Warner Brothers, that share goes up a lot.”Keep in mind that Trump is not friendly with Netflix founder Reid Hastings. For years, Hastings positioned himself as one of Trump's most prominent corporate critics. He donated $7 million to a pro-Kamala Harris Super PAC and was a leading voice pressuring Joe Biden to step down to make way for a stronger candidate against Trump.Since the election though, he has gone quiet but Trump surely hasn't forgotten which side he was on. I don't see any reason to chase a 6% merger arb here with an indeterminate timeline. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late last week, I spoke with Dale Pinkert at Forex Analytix about markets. The prior time I spoke with in early Sept, I pushed hard on the idea that gold was going to run and it certainly did. As we head into year-end, the setup for 2026 is getting fascinating.We covered a massive amount of ground in this one—from the "chaos trade" in D.C. to why I’m looking at some unloved sectors right now.Here are a few highlights from our chat:Silver is waking up: Gold has had a great run, but Silver is finally making new highs. Retail is getting involved, and the industrial/AI demand case is becoming undeniable.The Supreme Court "Game Changer": Everyone is focused on the Fed, but I told Dale the biggest macro event of early 2026 might be the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs. If they block the President's ability to impose them unilaterally, we could see a massive move in bonds and the dollar.Is the AI Trade getting tired? I love the tech rally, but betting on Nvidia to maintain 80% profit margins forever is a bet against capitalism. The chart is looking a little "toppy," and a rotation might be due.My Contrarian Pick (Airlines): I know, I know—it's the sector everyone loves to hate. But between loyalty programs acting like cash annuities, Boomers traveling non-stop, and valuations at 4x earnings, the risk/reward in names like $JETS is too good to ignore.The "Pain Trade": Despite all the dysfunction and noise, the economy just keeps chugging along at 2%. What is it, listen to find out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prelim was -1.8%Prior was +2.3% q/qGDP q/q -0.6% vs -0.5% expectedq/q private consumption +0.2% vs +0.1% prelimExternal demand -0.2% vs -0.2% prelim This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +4483B This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump and Carney were at the World Cup draw on Friday and were cordial."They're very tough traders but I have a very good relationship with the prime minster and with Canada," he said."We'll see — the problem is that Canada makes a lot of things we don't need because we make them also, but we'll work it out. Canada is a special place and they are really good at ice hockey, aren't they?" This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.1%Overtime pay +1.5% vs +1.0% priorReal cash earnings -0.7%The Bank of Japan still isn't priced for a hike next week but this is another reason to believe that one is coming. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Futures trading has resumed with some small moves so far.S&P 500 futures up 5 points, or 0.05%Gold futures up $3WTI futures up 10-centsIf spoos finish higher today, it will be the fifth day in a row of gains and 10th in the past 11. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's easy-come, easy-go in the bitcoin market this weekend.Earlier today it sank all the way to $87,800 and then stormed to a high of $91,700 in a straight-line move. Now though, the bears are back in control and have dragged it down to $89,577.That's not a great sign for overall risk appetite into the new week but the Dec 5 range of $88,000-92,000 is still the space to watch for a break. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Happy Monday Asia-Pacific traders. Eamonn is out this week so I will be filling in and having some fun along the way:Here is how each currency is performing on the day so far:Euro: Up by 0.0003Japanese Yen: Down by 0.13British Pound: Down by 0.0010Swiss Franc: Down by 0.0009Canadian Dollar: Up by 0.0017Australian Dollar: Down by 0.0003New Zealand $: Up by 0.0002That's nothing too exciting so far but note that we saw some strong bitcoin strength earlier, though it's fading over the past hour. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis Today: Key Reversal Zone Emerging on the 4 Hour Chart as Traders Watch 4,210 and the Lower ChannelIn this Gold futures technical analysis on the 4 hour chart, we explore why gold may be approaching a very interesting spot for a potential bullish reversal. Price is moving toward the lower channel shown in the video, and we also consider the possibility of a brief fake breakdown before a recovery. This aligns with the important volume profile anchored from the recent rollover date on November 25, 2025. We also examine what the RSI is telling us and offer guidance for technical traders, day traders, swing traders, and longer term gold investors.The video walks through where profit targets may unfold if a bullish reversal plays out, and at what point the bullish idea gives way to a bearish stage if price sustains below 4,210. You are invited to watch the full breakdown and also join our free investingLive Stocks Telegram channel for gold updates, crypto insights, stock trade ideas, and more: https://t.me/investingLiveStocks. For additional context, check out our previous gold futures analysis here: https://investinglive.com/commodities/is-gold-topping-out-or-simply-catching-its-breath-20251207/, which also includes a unique orderFlow Intel view showing that Friday’s reversal was bearish, but not dramatically so. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.