European Central Bank preview via Reuters, in breif:Summary:ECB widely expected to hold rates at 2% amid heightened uncertaintyIran war-driven energy shock revives upside inflation risksMarkets pricing potential hikes despite economist consensus for holdLagarde likely to emphasise vigilance and optionality2022 energy crisis still shaping policy sensitivityScenario analysis to guide outlook amid uncertain conflict durationFiscal expansion and rising yields adding tightening pressureThe European Central Bank is expected to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 2% at its upcoming meeting, but signal a more hawkish stance as escalating tensions in the Middle East revive concerns about energy-driven inflation.A sharp rise in oil and gas prices following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran has reintroduced a familiar risk for policymakers: a sustained energy shock feeding into broader consumer prices. For the euro area, which remains heavily reliant on imported energy, the pass-through from higher fuel costs could prove significant if the conflict persists.Market pricing has already begun to reflect this risk. Traders are increasingly positioning for a renewed tightening cycle, with expectations building for as many as two rate hikes by year-end. This contrasts with a more cautious economist consensus, which still largely anticipates a prolonged pause as growth headwinds intensify.ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to walk a careful line, reinforcing the central bank’s readiness to act while avoiding firm forward guidance. The likely message is one of vigilance, with policymakers seeking to anchor inflation expectations without committing prematurely in an environment marked by unusually high uncertainty.That caution is informed by experience. The energy-driven inflation surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the ECB into aggressive tightening after initially underestimating the persistence of price pressures. That episode continues to shape internal thinking, increasing sensitivity to the risk of second-round effects, particularly via wages and inflation expectations.At the same time, policymakers acknowledge key differences. Monetary and fiscal settings are less accommodative than in 2022, potentially limiting the scale of any inflation overshoot. Still, the trajectory will depend heavily on how the conflict evolves, a factor the ECB has little visibility on.To address this uncertainty, the central bank is expected to present scenario-based projections outlining potential paths for growth and inflation under both short-lived and prolonged conflict outcomes. These scenarios will be closely scrutinised by markets, particularly in light of rising bond yields and expectations of increased fiscal spending across the bloc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Missile intercepts hit UAE energy sites, halting operations at key gas facility. Earlier:Iran warns of total destruction of energy infrastructure in escalation threatSummary:UAE intercepted missiles targeting key energy infrastructureHabshan gas facility and Bab oil field identified as targetsOperations suspended at Habshan following debris incidentsNo injuries reported, but disruption to gas processing notedIran had warned of imminent strikes on Gulf energy assetsEscalation reinforces risks to regional oil and gas supplyEnergy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates has been directly drawn into escalating regional tensions, after authorities confirmed missile interceptions targeting key oil and gas assets.According to the Abu Dhabi Media Office, defence systems successfully intercepted missiles aimed at the Habshan gas facility and the Bab oil field. However, falling debris from the interceptions resulted in two separate incidents, prompting an immediate suspension of operations at the Habshan site. Officials confirmed there were no injuries.The Habshan facility is a critical component of the UAE’s energy network, handling significant volumes of gas processing and supply. Any disruption, even temporary, is closely watched by markets given its role in supporting both domestic energy needs and export capacity.The incident follows a prior warning from Iranian state media, which signalled that energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar could be targeted in the near term. The latest developments suggest those threats are now materialising, marking a further escalation in the conflict’s spillover into vital energy infrastructure.While the immediate physical damage appears limited, the suspension of operations highlights the vulnerability of regional supply chains. Markets are likely to focus on whether disruptions remain contained or evolve into a broader pattern of sustained attacks on energy assets across the Gulf.The targeting of both gas and oil infrastructure underscores a widening scope of risk, with implications not only for crude markets but also for LNG and refined product flows. Any prolonged outages or repeated incidents could amplify volatility and deepen concerns over supply security in one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors. ---Also, via headline:Missile reportedly hit the Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, according to Iran's semi official SNN This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Q4 GDP misses expectations, momentum faded into year-endSummary:Q4 GDP undershoots expectations on both quarterly and annual measuresGrowth slows sharply from prior quarter, signalling fading momentumProduction-based GDP +0.2% q/q vs +1.1% priorAnnual growth holds at 1.3% y/y, missing forecastsExpenditure-based GDP weaker at +0.1% q/qNZD briefly volatile, then edged lower on softer dataReinforces fragile recovery backdrop and mixed domestic demand signalsNew Zealand’s economy lost momentum into the end of 2025, with fourth-quarter GDP data coming in below expectations and reinforcing a softening growth profile that is likely to keep the policy outlook finely balanced.Headline growth rose just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, undershooting the 0.4% consensus forecast and slowing sharply from the 1.1% expansion recorded in Q3. On an annual basis, GDP held at 1.3% year-on-year, also missing expectations for a stronger 1.7% outcome and sitting at the lower end of analyst estimates.Details of the release pointed to a lacklustre domestic demand backdrop. Expenditure-based GDP increased by only 0.1% in the quarter, well below the 0.5% expected, highlighting subdued household consumption and investment trends. Production-based measures painted a similarly modest picture, confirming that the growth impulse weakened materially into year-end.The data fits with a broader narrative of uneven recovery across the New Zealand economy. While earlier quarters showed signs of stabilisation following a period of contraction, momentum appears to have faded again, suggesting that higher interest rates and cost pressures continue to weigh on activity.From a policy perspective, the softer print complicates the outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While inflation pressures remain a concern, the loss of growth momentum strengthens the case for caution, particularly if forward indicators fail to show a rebound in early 2026.Market reaction was relatively contained but negative at the margin, with the New Zealand dollar initially whipsawing before drifting lower as the weaker-than-expected figures filtered through. ---Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet April 8:The RBNZ last tightened policy in May 2023 and has since shifted into an easing cycle, cutting rates aggressively through 2024–2025 before pausing at 2.25% in early 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is ticking up to new highs as yields move higher after the FOMC rate decision and comments Overall, Powell leaned mildly hawkish — not aggressively so, but the weight of his comments tilted that way. The key tells:The hawkish core was his refusal to commit to cuts without inflation progress, the dot plot shift toward fewer cuts, and his explicit unwillingness to prioritize employment over inflation. The fact that he openly questioned whether tariff inflation would truly be "one-time" was a notable step back from the more sanguine view the Fed held earlier.The dovish offset came from ruling out hikes, signaling some confidence tariff inflation fades mid-year, and emphasizing that long-term expectations remain anchored — the classic "we can look through this" framing.The wildcard is the Middle East. Powell effectively told markets he doesn't know how to model it yet — which keeps the next meeting wide open depending on how the oil/energy situation develops. US yields are higher with the two-year up 8.1 basis point at 3.751%. The 10 year yield is back above 4.25% at 4.2571% up 5.5 basis pointFor the USDJPY it is trading at the highest level since July 2024. Targets include the natural resistance at 160.00, followed by swing high from April 2024 at 160.25. The high price from 2024 reached up to 161.919. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Qatari Interior Ministry: The security threat level is high, and everyone must adhere to staying in homes and safe placesForeign ministry: Iran targeting it is "irresponsible approach"Ras Laffan attack is "direct threat" to its national securityThere are videos now showing two strikes on Ras Laffan. There are two fires but keep in mind that Ras Laffan is truly a mind-bogglingly large complex. It covers 256 sq kilometers with the port facilities alone covering 56 sq km. The stated target was the Exxon-owned (partly at 10%) refinery in the complex but even it is a very large facility.It's a condensate refinery processing 300,000-400,000 barrels per day (the combined LR1 and LR2 capacity) and would typically occupy somewhere in the range of 2–4 sq kmThere are a few takeaways from the Iran strikes today:Their capabilities may not have been diminished as much as we've led to believe. They named four targets ahead of time and hit at least two of them alreadyThere is a fair chance this leads to more escalation. We will see if Israel/USA strike more of Iran's energy infrastructure nowThis is obviously a dangerous phase and stocks are at the lows with the S&P 500 down 1.2% now. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is tilting to the upside as the Chair Powell testimony progresses. What has that done to the technicals for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD? I outline the changes and key levels in play. I also take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P indices as they react.In other markets, yields are higher with the 10 year now up 5.5 basis points at 4.257%. The 2-year yield is up 7.5 basis points at 4.745%. Looking at commodities, oil prices are up with the April price up $0.97 or 1.01%. Gold is trading down $156 or -3.13% at $4850 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Housing sector activity has been weakLabor demand has clearly softenedOther labor indicators have been little changedElevated inflation expectations in near term have risenElevated inflation largely reflects goods, which have been boosted by tariffsLong term inflation expectations consistent with 2% inflation goalImplications of Middle East are uncertainToo soon to know scope and duration of effects on economyWe are well-positionedFrom the Q&A:This year is really important to see progress on goods inflation, that's the main thing we're looking forWhether we look through energy inflation doesn't arise until we check the box on goods inflationWon't approach the question of looking through energy lightlyThere was a movement towards fewer cuts by a number of peopleProgress on tariff inflation should be seen by the middle of the yearIf we don't see inflation progress, you won't see a rate cutIf we were ever going to skip an SEP, this would be itFive years of above-target inflation makes you worry about "trouble" in inflation expectationsWe are very strongly committed to keeping inflation expectations anchored at 2%We want to see continued progress on housing services, finally seeing goods inflation come back down, and get help from non-housing servicesWould not say employment is more of a risk than inflationAsk why supercore hasn't fallen: It's a puzzle. There are idiosyncratic things, but we're not exactly sure.Powell says he hasn't made a decision on staying on as governor. Says he will do what's best for institutionWon't leave Fed until investigation is "well and truly over"More to come...Live feed below: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The image shown here was from video (or at least purported video) of the Pars gas processing station in Iran, or something nearby. It's clearly in flames but earlier there were reports that the fire was brought under control.Now, the Iranian Gas Company is out with an advisory saying the situation is expected to return to normal in Pars soon. That's unambiguously good news and indicates that the damage wasn't critical, or was in storage facilities or something that wasn't necessary for gas processing. If that's so, it could have been more of a warning shot or some kind of test to keep Iran off balance. The bad news is that Iran already reportedly hit a refinery in Saudi Arabia in response and near Ras Laffan in Qatar. It also highlighted targets in neighbouring countries that had US ownership. That led to a rebuke of both Iran and Israel/USA by Qatar and others. In any case, oil prices have retreated in the past 20 minutes or so on the hope there is a path to de-escalation here. That's a big ask and it's certainly a gut-check moment but only time will tell. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here's a summary of the three changes made from January to March:Change 1 — Unemployment language (Paragraph 1): The Fed softened its characterization. "Has shown some signs of stabilization" was replaced with the more neutral "has been little changed in recent months" — removing any implication of improvement.Change 2 — New sentence added (Paragraph 2): An entirely new sentence was inserted: "The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain." This is a significant addition, flagging geopolitical risk as a formal concern in the policy statement.Change 3 — Voting dissent (Voting section): Christopher J. Waller flipped from dissenter to voter in favor of holding rates. That leaves Stephen I. Miran as the lone dissenter — down from two. The grammar shifted accordingly ("were" → "was"). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The dot plot from Federal Reserve members outlining the projection for rates at the end of 2026, 2027 and 2028. For 2026, the expected end of year rate is at 3.4%, unchanged from Decembers estimate. The end of 2027 rate is also unchanged at 3.1%. The skew of the projections is more confined with 2.50% to 2.75% as the low and 3.5% to 3.75% remaining at the high. There are more members who see 1 or 0 cuts with 14 in that range currently, and only 5 below that range. In December, only 7 members saw 1 or 2 cuts, while 12 members saw more than one cut in 2026.The dot plot from the December meeting the Fed Funds projection was for the rate at the end of December to be 3.4%. Below is the table of economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation as of the March 2026 meeting.Looking at the numbers for 2026 compared to the December, PCE inflation moved up from 2.4% to 2.7% while core PCE also rose from 2.5% to 2.7%.GDP was increased modestly to 2.4% from 2.3%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.For 2027, the expectations are for modestly lower GDP growth at 2.3% (from 2.4%), and modestly lower unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.4%. The inflation rate is expected to move lower to 2.2%. That is modestly higher than Decembers forecast of 2.1%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

March 18, 2026Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDTAvailable indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

No change was expectedFed funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, unchangedMore headlines:Fed says implications of developments in Middle East for U.S. economy are uncertainUncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevatedAvailable indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at "solid pace"Job gains have remained low and unemployment rate has been little changed in recent monthsInflation remains somewhat elevatedFed says it is "attentive" to risks to both sides of dual mandateVote in favor of policy was 11-1, with Governor Miran dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cutFed officials' median view of Fed funds rate at end-2027 3.1% (Prev 3.1%)Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate at end-2026 3.4% (Prev 3.4%)Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate at end-2028 3.1% (Prev 3.1%)Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate in longer run 3.1% (Prev 3.0%)Fed projections imply 25 bps of rate cuts in 2026, 25 bps of cuts in 2027Fed projections show seven policymakers saw no rate cut in 2026, one sees rates higher in 2027Fed policymakers see 4.4% unemployment rate at end of 2026 versus 4.4% in December projectionsFed policymakers see end-2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% versus 2.4% in December; core seen at 2.7% versus 2.5%Fed policymakers see 2.4% GDP growth in 2026 versus 2.3% in December, see longer-run growth at 2.0% vs 1.8% in DecemberThe Federal Reserve held its key overnight interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range at the conclusion of its two-day March meeting on March 18, as widely expected. The vote was 11-1, with Governor Miran the lone dissenter, favoring a 25-basis-point cut. The statement noted that the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy remain uncertain.In its policy language, the Fed said economic activity had been expanding at a "solid pace," while job gains remained low and the unemployment rate had been little changed in recent months. Inflation was described as "somewhat elevated," and the committee said it remained "attentive" to risks on both sides of its dual mandate. The Fed also flagged that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated — a nod to the ongoing conflict in Iran and its ripple effects through energy markets.The updated Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly upgrading their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.3% in December, while raising the longer-run growth estimate to 2.0% from 1.8%. On inflation, policymakers saw end-of-2026 PCE at 2.7%, up from 2.4% in December, with core PCE also rising to 2.7% from 2.5%. The unemployment rate projection held steady at 4.4% for year-end 2026.On the dot plot, 12 of 19 meeting participants penciled in at least one cut this year, the same as in December. What changed in March is more at the margins — the dovish tail got trimmed. The lone dot near 2.0% in December disappeared, and the dots that had been sitting around 2.5%–2.75% moved up closer to 3.0%–3.125%. The median held at 3.4%, but the distribution tightened and shifted modestly higher around it.For 2027, the story is similar. The core cluster stayed around 3.0%–3.125%, but the lower outliers were pulled up and a couple of dots appeared near 4.0% at the top. The range narrowed, reflecting a committee that has converged toward a slower, shallower easing path rather than one that fundamentally changed its central view.The immediate reaction in Fed funds futures were modest but dovish. December Fed funds futures pricing is at -22.5 bps vs 20.5 bps before the decision. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market wants to know how many Fed rate cuts are coming in 2026 and the clearest indication of that will come in the Fed's dot plot, to be released along with the FOMC decision at 2 pm ET.Looking at the December dot plot is instructive as it shows the median at one rate cut but also notice the dispersion:3 estimates for a hike4 estimates for no change4 estimates for one cut4 estimates for two cuts2 estimates for three cuts1 estimate for four cuts1 estimate (Miran) for six cutsMy first prediction is that we will see compression here. It's not abundantly clear that both sides of the mandate are under pressure but the risks to inflation are obvious and it's virtually impossible for the Fed to hit its inflation target (nominal) though next February if commodity prices stay here.I would strongly expect the estimates for 4-6 cuts (100-150 bps) to come in, likely the two calls for 75 bps too. So the debate will fall more into:1 cut - current market pricing2-3 cuts - pricing before Iran warNow I could see some members being unwilling to move off those estimates due to expectations for a short war but that's going to be a tougher position to maintain as the days mount and the energy attacks escalate.Ultimately, what's going to matter to the market first is the median. Right now, you need three members to shift to 'unchanged' from hold/hike to get to unchanged as the median. I think that's realistic but it will be close, as December is a long ways away and unemployment worsened.A notable quirk here is that Cheryl Venable is replacing Rafael Bostic as the Atlanta Fed dot this month, as she's the interim President following his retirement. Little is known about her views and while it's fair to assume she will follow his lead, that could shift things. At the end of his tenure, Bostic was a hawk. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is at 2 pm ET and the chances of any move on the 3.50-3.75% Fed funds rate is nearly nil.Looking further out, the market is seeing less of a chance of rate cuts than it did a few weeks ago, and that's despite worsening employment. The market had priced in more than 60 bps in easing this year but that's dwindled.Pricing in Fed funds futures now shows:0.2 bps of easing in April (0.8% chance of a cut)3.7 bps of easing in June (14.8% chance of a cut)7.7 bps of easing in July (30.8% chance of a cut)12.0 bps of easing in September (48.0% chance of a cut)14.5 bps of easing in October (58.0% chance of a cut)20.5 bps of easing in December (82.0% chance of a cut)21.2 bps of easing in January 2027 (84.8% chance of a cut)23.5 bps of easing in March 2027 (94.0% chance of a cut)24.2 bps of easing in April 2027 (96.8% chance of a cut)As you can see, through April of next year there still isn't a cut fully priced in and the chances don't rise above 50% until October. Much of how that develops will depend on what will happen in the war in Iran.Today, WTI crude oil is up $1.93 to $98.15 per barrel and Brent is up $5.22 to $108.64. The divergence in WTI-brent suggests a growing chance that the US limits oil exports, which is something that would cause a political crisis.Today's PPI data for February underscored the problem the Fed faces, input costs were rising even before the Iran war began. That's sure to spike in the March data and beyond that depends on what happens in Iran. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A wave of headlines crossed the wires in the final minutes of trading, adding to an already tense backdrop.On the political front, President Trump appears to be distancing himself from rising gasoline prices, instead shifting focus to Vice President Vance, who is set to meet with oil executives as the administration looks to address the surge in fuel costs and its impact on consumer sentiment and approval ratings. Gas prices have risen sharply, with the AAA national average climbing to $3.84, up nearly $1 from $2.92 just a month ago—a roughly 31% increase. Vance indicated that the administration expects to announce new measures within the next 24 to 48 hours.Geopolitical tensions also escalated. Reports of two loud explosions in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, were followed by confirmation from the Saudi Ministry of Defense that air defenses had engaged a ballistic threat. Authorities later stated that the immediate danger had passed. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader warned that retaliation would follow the killing of Larijani, signaling the potential for further escalation.In the commodity markets, crude oil remains elevated, trading near $97 after reaching a high of $98.67. Technically, the price continues to hold above its 100-hour moving average at $95.79, keeping the short-term bias tilted to the upside. However, after briefly breaking above the $98.21 swing level, momentum stalled. The market is now back in a familiar battle zone, with traders watching the range between the 100-hour MA below and resistance near $98.21 above for the next directional cue. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The broader NASDAQ and S&P indices both came under pressure last Friday, with the NASDAQ breaking and closing below its 200-day moving average, while the S&P managed to hold just above its own 200-day MA. That divergence set the stage for a potential shift in bias.On Monday, markets gapped higher as weekend developments helped calm investor concerns. The move pushed the NASDAQ back above its 200-day moving average (now near 22,224). Although the index is modestly lower today (around -0.56%), it continues to hold above that key level, currently trading near 22,353.As the market heads into the FOMC decision, the 200-day moving average remains the key pivot. A move back below—and especially a close below—that level would tilt the bias back to the downside. On the flip side, a push higher would have traders targeting the 100-hour moving average at 22,547 and the 200-hour moving average at 22,694. A break above those levels would strengthen the bullish case.For the S&P, the story is similar but slightly more constructive. Monday’s gap higher helped the index extend further above its 200-day moving average (currently near 6,616), keeping buyers in control for now. However, a move back below—and a close beneath—that level would shift the bias lower, with the next downside target near 6,521.92.On the topside, resistance comes in at the falling 100-hour moving average near 6,773.57 and the falling 200-hour moving average near 6,831.10. A move above those levels would be needed to reinforce a more bullish technical outlook.In summary, both indices remain above their 200-day moving averages, keeping the broader bias tilted to the upside—for now. However, with the FOMC decision ahead and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, those key levels remain vulnerable. Traders should stay alert and be prepared for a potential shift in direction. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This is from Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence at hearings today:"The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact, but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities. Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options... Even if the regime remains intact, the IC assesses that internal tensions are likely to increase as economic as Iran's economy worsens. Even so, Iran and its proxies continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East. The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives, it will likely seek to begin a years long effort to rebuild its military missiles and UAV forces."Separately, Axios is out with a report:Axios citing a White House official: Israel will try to assassinate the new Iran leader and they are much more interested in that than we are.Axios on a White House official: Israel has other targets and we know that.Axios citing U.S. officials: Trump's main targets are to destroy Iran's missile and nuclear program, its navy, and the funding of its proxies.Axios citing US officials: Trump will view regime change as an additional gain but intends to end the war once his main objectives are achieved.Trump and administration officials are continuing to fall back on the 'destruction of military capability' goals and I tend to think they will stick to that. What's less clear is what happens when Trump declares 'mission accomplished'. Does Iran stop strikes on Hormuz? Is there some sort of peace process? Does Israel continue to kill Iran's leaders? Does Russia continue to help Iran?I find this whole setup a difficult one to create a path for lasting peace. Today's strikes on energy infrastructure are a bizarre escalation that takes us far from peace and risks a long-term rebuild of energy infrastructure throughout the region. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

EURUSD Pushes Above the 200-Hour Moving Average — Then ReversesThe EURUSD moved higher during the European morning session, briefly extending above the 200-hour moving average at 1.15416. In doing so, the pair entered a significant swing area between 1.15420 and 1.15549 — a zone defined by a series of recent highs and lows from March, and one that also served as a key pivot region between October 9 and November 28, during which price repeatedly found both support and resistance at those exact levels.Sellers Defend the Resistance ZoneTraders recognizing the technical significance of that range leaned against it as sellers, likely placing stops just above the upper boundary. The resulting rejection sent price rotating back to the downside.Stronger-Than-Expected PPI Data Accelerates the SelloffThe downside momentum was reinforced by stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data released during the session, which pushed the U.S. dollar broadly higher and added fuel to the EURUSD decline. That move carried the pair down toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.14958 and a key swing level at 1.14910.Buyers Step In at Key SupportThe lower support area held its own significance. The 1.14910 level marked a swing high from Friday's session where sellers had previously leaned, and it also represented the swing level from November 21 — just before the pair launched into a trending move that topped out near 1.18100 on December 24. Buyers defended this zone, likely with stops positioned just below, and price bounced accordingly.The Technical Battle Lines Are Now Clearly DrawnThe price action has set the stage for a well-defined range conflict:Support: 1.14910 – 1.14958Resistance: 1.15417 – 1.15549At some point, one side will overwhelm the other. The breakout may be triggered by a news catalyst, or it may develop organically as buyers or sellers gain the upper hand at one of these technical levels — with momentum building from there.Why These Levels Matter for TradersWhat matters most is that traders are actively watching these levels and using them to define both their directional bias and their risk. Whether you're trading the range or positioning for the break, these boundaries are your roadmap. Ignoring technical levels is how traders get caught off guard. Respecting them is how you stay in the game.For a deeper breakdown of these technical levels and what to watch for on the next move, see the video above This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe current stock market heatmap reflects a mixed bag of performance across sectors today. Technology is experiencing notable declines, with giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) down by 1.11% and 1.44% respectively. Apple (AAPL) also sees a drop of 0.74%, pointing towards overall investor hesitation in the consumer electronics space.Contrarily, there is a glint of green in the semiconductor sector led by Nvidia (NVDA) with a slight increase of 0.28% and AMD soaring by 1.18%. This appears to contrast with the general tech sluggishness, suggesting focused investor confidence in chipmakers.Meanwhile, the communication services sector is facing pressure, with major players like Google (GOOG) down by 0.37% and Meta (META) declining by 1.00%, indicating potential market fatigue in digital advertising revenue streams.Market Mood and TrendsToday's sentiment is marked by caution, especially towards technology and healthcare. Investors are seemingly reacting to broader economic concerns, possibly influenced by geopolitical factors or looming earnings reports, fostering a certain defensive stance among traders.However, the financial sector offers a glimmer of optimism with subtle upward movements in banking stocks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) up 0.04% and Wells Fargo (WFC) nudging 0.22% higher. This might indicate confidence in financial stability amidst volatile market conditions.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should employ strategic caution, especially within the technology and healthcare domains, where fluctuations seem pronounced. Given the visible potential in semiconductors, consider maintaining or slightly increasing exposure to stocks like Nvidia and AMD which show resilience amid a downbeat tech landscape.For risk-averse moves, diversification might be beneficial; look to sectors like energy with minor gains in ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), which could provide stable returns.In light of today's market dynamics, revisiting long-term strategies involving cyclical sectors such as financials and consumer defensives could also provide hedge against short-term market swings. Engage with continual updates and in-depth analyses with us at InvestingLive.com ? to navigate through this capricious market environment. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, as expected but the statement highlighted risks to both sides of the mandate.Whether war is net positive (due to oil) or net negative (due to costs), it will shift compositionFood inflation remains a problemUncertainty is high, we've seen an evolution of the risks since January MPRWe are prepared to respond as neededThis is an economic shock, how big it is depends on how long it lastsWe know inflation is going to go up in the near termThe risk that higher energy prices will quickly spread to other goods and services "looks contained, that doesn't look too high"We will take rate decisions one meeting at a timeI don't think there's any question that it's more negative than positive because it hits global growth so hard and Canada doesn't have the capacity to absorb inbound funds for energy investment because it can't build pipelines or LNG facilities on any reasonable timeline.The market is priced for 33 bps of Bank of Canada rate hikes this year.Feed below: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.