How Low Can Bitcoin Go in September 2025? BTC Price Predictions & Analysis
The
question "How low can Bitcoin go in September 2025?" has
taken on urgent relevance as the cryptocurrency enters its historically weakest
month trading today, Monday, 1 September 2025, at $108,253, down 0.49% from
yesterday and marking a concerning 6.5% August decline. Why is
Bitcoin going down as September begins reflects both seasonal patterns and
technical breakdowns that suggest further weakness ahead. However, my technical
analysis suggests that the declines will be limited, and expert Bitcoin price
predictions for the short and medium term indicate a relatively quick rebound
toward all-time highs (ATH).Bitcoin September 2025:
Current Price ActionBitcoin (BTC) begins September at a critical juncture, having broken its four-month
winning streak with August's 6.5% decline while US-listed spot ETFs
hemorrhaged $751 million in outflows. The cryptocurrency now trades near
$108,000, approximately 13% below its August all-time high of $124,533.Key
Bitcoin metrics for September 1, 2025:Current
price: $108,253Monthly start: Down 0.49% from August
31August performance: -6.5% (first red month
since April)ETF
outflows: $751 million in AugustWhale addresses (100+ BTC): Record high 19,130The price
action reflects growing concern about Bitcoin's ability to maintain support
levels as the month progresses.Red September: Historical
Patterns Spell TroubleSeptember's Brutal Track
RecordBitcoin
price predictions September 2025 must account for the month's devastating
historical performance. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted average returns of
-3.77% in September, closing red in 8 of the past 12 years. This
"Red September" phenomenon mirrors broader market patterns, with the
S&P 500 averaging -1.20% returns in September since 1928.Yuri Berg
from FinchTrade explains the mechanics: "Many investment funds close
their fiscal year in September, divesting losing positions for tax reasons, and
rebalancing their portfolios". The structural selling pressure creates
a self-reinforcing downward spiral as traders anticipate weakness.2025 Mirrors 2017 PatternHowever,
analyst Rekt Fencer argues "a September dump is not coming" this
year, citing similarities to 2017 when Bitcoin found support after August
weakness before "rocketing to $20,000". The chart overlay
reveals Bitcoin hovering near the crucial $105,000-$110,000 base that
previously acted as resistance before flipping to support.SEPTEMBER DUMP IS NOT COMING$BTC already front-ran the sell-off.It played out the same way in 2017Bears will miss the pump again pic.twitter.com/XIhKmpUlT1— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) August 30, 2025Technical Analysis: How
Low Can Bitcoin Drop?Key Support Levels Under
SiegeBased on my
comprehensive technical analysis, Friday's nearly 4% decline broke Bitcoin out
of its two-month consolidation that had kept prices near historical maximums.
The cryptocurrency has now broken through legal support around $107,500, which
coincides with the lowest levels in nearly two months.The
critical support zone begins at $104,000, precisely at the 200-day moving
average (200 MA). This support extends down to the psychological $100,000
level, where significant buy orders have accumulated. This zone is further
reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement measured from the April uptrend to
August's historical maximum near $125,000.If asked
how low Bitcoin can fall in September 2025, from current levels it would be
maximum 8% decline to exactly $100,000, in my opnions. The analysis doesn't
anticipate a stronger correction, and all downward movements will be treated as
reaccumulation opportunities and buying chances at more attractive prices.Despite the
bearish setup, "hidden bullish divergence" appears on
Bitcoin's RSI, suggesting "the market is not as weak as the price
chart suggests". Analyst ZYN projects Bitcoin could reach "a
fresh all-time high above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks" based
on these technical patterns.Institutional Dynamics:
Mixed SignalsRecord Whale Accumulation Despite Weakness - A remarkable development shows whale
addresses holding 100+ BTC reached a record high of 19,130, surpassing even the
2017 peak. This accumulation pattern suggests sophisticated investors are
buying the dip despite retail capitulation.ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Caution - Conversely, $751 million in ETF outflows during
August indicates institutional uncertainty. The divergence between whale
accumulation and ETF selling suggests different time horizons and risk
appetites among large holders.Fed Policy Creates Macro Tailwind - Currency traders are turning bearish on the
dollar with expectations for Fed rate cuts creating potential upside
catalysts. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index has
weakened to -0.25, its lowest level in two years, suggesting Bitcoin could
benefit from dollar weakness.September 2025 Bitcoin Price
Predictions: Expert ConsensusBearish Scenarios DominateChangelly's
Bitcoin price predictions September 2025 show potential volatility with a
minimum target of $108,802 and maximum of $124,283. However,
most technical analysts lean bearish given the seasonal headwinds and broken
support levels.Binance's
forecast projects September ending around $108,332, suggesting
limited upside potential.Bull Case: Breaking the
PatternDespite
historical weakness, some analysts believe Bitcoin could "break the
Red September curse" in 2025. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global
Advisors, has been one of the most bullish and accurate Bitcoin analysts in
recent years. He believes that Bitcoin can go back to $120,000 this month and
end the year around $200,00.The bull
case relies on:Federal Reserve rate cuts providing
liquidityInstitutional adoption continuing
despite ETF outflowsTechnical
rebound from oversold conditions2017 pattern repetition suggesting
final shakeout before rallyAsh Crypto
predicts "the Fed will start the money printers in Q4" with "two
rate cuts mean trillions will flow into the crypto market".You may also like: New BTC Price Predictions Point to $200K in 2025 and $1M Long TermWhy is Bitcoin Going Down:
Fundamental DriversStructural September
SellingThe September
Effect stems from multiple converging factors:Portfolio
rebalancing by institutional investorsTax loss harvesting before
fiscal year-endReduced
summer liquidity creating volatilityPsychological selling based
on historical patternsTechnical Momentum
BreakdownKey
momentum indicators have turned decisively bearish:MACD
histogram dropped below zeroRSI shows oversold
conditions below 30Moving
average structure confirms downtrendFAQ: Bitcoin September
2025 OutlookHow low can Bitcoin
realistically go in September 2025?My technical
analysis suggests $100K-$101K as primary support, though some projections see
potential for deeper correction to mid-$90Ks.Will Bitcoin break the Red
September pattern in 2025?Mixed
signals, whale accumulation and Fed policy support bulls, while technical
breakdowns and ETF outflows favor bears.What would trigger a
September rally instead of decline?Federal
Reserve dovishness, dollar weakness, and institutional re-entry above $113.5K
resistance could flip sentiment.Is September selling just
a self-fulfilling prophecy?Partly, but
structural factors like portfolio rebalancing and reduced liquidity create
genuine seasonal headwinds.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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