The US dollar and oil prices experienced intense volatility due to Middle East tensions, initially spiking after strikes on Iran but cooling after optimistic remarks from President Trump.The upcoming US CPI print, which is expected to show headline inflation holding steady at 2.4% may be overshadowed.US Dollar bulls eye acceptance above the 99.57 handle before the psychological 100.00 handle comes into play.Most Read: Gold’s (XAU/USD) Tug of War: : Oil spike, rate fears, and the battle for controlThe US dollar found support late trade on Tuesday after it spent the majority of the day on the backfoot as hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East grew.The greenback retreated from its peak after a period of intense volatility sparked by joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. While those strikes initially sent oil prices to their highest levels since 2022 and drove a surge in the greenback, the market cooled significantly following optimistic remarks from President Donald Trump. On Monday, the President suggested that the conflict might conclude much sooner than originally anticipated, providing a much-needed reprieve for global markets.However, this de-escalation came with a firm caveat: Trump warned that he would ramp up military action if Tehran attempted to disrupt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.Despite the lingering threat, his comments were enough to soothe investor anxiety, leading to a sharp reduction in dollar buying.By Tuesday, the shift in sentiment caused oil prices to plunge approximately 15%, reversing much of the previous session’s dramatic climb.However, late in Tuesday's session it appears that market angst had returned as Iranian leaders struck a defiant tone. As a result, haven demand returned which provided the US dollar support while Oil prices rose around 8% for the daily lows around the $75.93/barrel mark.The move in the US Dollar Index leaves the greenback at a crossroads heading into tomorrow's US CPI print.US CPI data ahead Now of course, the latest increase in oil prices will not be in tomorrow's CPI release, with first signs likely to come in the March inflation release next month.Looking back at the inflation release last month, it was a positive one for rate cuts. YoY inflation in the US dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, 2.4%. Source: TradingEconomics Another drop this month though is unlikely to be met with the same optimism as the inflation release may seem somewhat out of date given the current month's developments.Markets will be watching to see what the print is as it may still have some impact on rate cut expectations, even if that proves temporary it could lead to a spike in volatility.Markets are currently anticipating that US headline inflation YoY will hold steady at 2.4%, with core inflation expected to remain resilient at 2.5%. Because the Federal Reserve has entered its mandatory "quiet period" leading up to the March 18th policy meeting, officials are restricted from providing public commentary on how they intend to navigate the current geopolitical crisis.This silence leaves investors speculating on whether the Fed and its global counterparts will view the recent spike in energy costs as a transitory shock to be "looked through," or as a fundamental threat to long-term price stability that requires a more aggressive policy response.The central question facing policymakers is whether these supply-side pressures will trigger a "second round" of price hikes across the broader economy. If central banks conclude that the conflict's impact on oil is temporary, they may maintain their current interest rate trajectories; however, if they perceive a genuine risk of inflation becoming entrenched, a shift toward higher-for-longer rates may be necessary to anchor market expectations.The next week should be key as we have the CPI, PCE data releases ahead of the Fed meeting. The question is, will the conflict still be ongoing at that point and what will the Oil price be?US Dollar Index - Technical picture as CPI looms From a technical standpoint, the daily candle has tested a key support area at 98.72 before dropping further to test the 100-day MA at 98.56.Since then, the index has seen the daily candle change course dramatically, on course to close as a hammer candle.Now while candlestick patterns are a good analysis tool, during periods like the one we are in now where a tweet by President Trump can change the entire market sentiment I would urge caution.Monday's daily candle close being a prime example. A massive shooting star candlestick which is looking likely to be followed by a hammer candle. This is a sign of the current indecision and impact the constantly changing narratives are having on markets.For bulls, a clean daily candle close above the 99.57 handle remains elusive. If bulls are to challenge the 100.00 psychological level, acceptance above this handle will be key in the near-term.Looking at the downside and support rests at the 98.56 handle where the 100-day MA rests before the 200-day MA at 98.33 comes into focus. Below that markets will begin to look at the 97.70 handle.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, March 10, 2026 Source: Tradingview Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It's only Tuesday and we can already talk about an insane week!After yesterday's chaos in the Oil Market, commodities still have a few surprises in store. Today seemed to mark a new beginning in the current war-flows, with Crude crawling back to $76.50 around the mid-session, a 35% move lower!The ongoing profit-taking got stretched by the numerous dip-buying attempts and a falling volatility, but this didn't last long.Metals had been enjoying a strong session, helped by the smoother inflation expectations as stagflationary pressure eased – Combining higher yields and a strong US Dollar, the recent War flows hadn't helped the highly positioned metals to rise. The fact that the conflict also failed to gather proper risk-off Market flows insisted on these trends.Nonetheless, as Oil fell back below $90, Precious metals quickly found a renewed bid, with Gold back above $5,200, Silver tipping the $90 level, and Platinum up more than 3%, a first since early February. Current Session in Metals (15:05 ET) – Courtesy of Finviz. March 10, 2026 The issue with current moves, is that they tend to be erratic.US Intel revealed that Iran was moving to place water mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which could prove to be a nail in the coffin for an already non-existent traffic (despite some form of progress in recent days).The news quickly saw Oil prices rebounding back towards $84 and the action now bouncing from there! WTI Oil 15M Chart. March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView This led to a daily top in Equities and Cryptos, but more particularly in the subject of today's analysis: Metals.Let's dive into intraday chart and levels for both Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) to see if the recent news really market a session top or if a more widespread bounce was to come. Read More:Wall Street recovers as Oil corrects, opportunity or trap? – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookWTI (Oil) forms a tight range after Trump's comments – Oil Dynamics and Intraday AnalysisIs the Petrodollar trade over after Trump's comment? EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewGold 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Gold 4H Chart. March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView These days, Markets aren't all about technical analysis (which still helps to find decent levels for decision-making, like entry and exits). The best way to navigate Markets are by looking at correlated and inversely correlated assets. By looking at Oil movements, one was able to catch bottoms in Equities and Metals – A catalyst detailed in our past week US Dollar analysis.So what about now? Since the Oil has marked its daily bottom, metals haven't been able to bounce, leading to the formation of a triangle formation.Breaking the 4H 50-Period MA would point to a quick test of the lower trendline around $5,050Any major break above the session highs ($5,238) would point to continue upside. This could lead to a retest of the $5,400 March highsLevels of interest for Gold trading:Support Levels:$5,180 4H 50-Period MA imminent support$5,050 to $5,100 Major support$4,850 to $4,900 Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:Session highs ($5,238) and $5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $25)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Silver 4H Chart. March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Silver also managed a decent push higher but is finding pressure as Oil maintains its rebound.The key level to watch is $90:Having failed to break the level in today's action, odds are higher for a correction back towards at least $86Below this, $82 will be the next key Support on deck.For bulls, breaking above with a 1H close would point to higher chances of a breakoutLevels of interest for Silver trading:Support Levels:Mini-support $862025 Record Pivot (Acting as key support) $82 to $84February Momentum Support $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Support $70 to $72Resistance Levels:Key Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highsKey psychological resistance $100 to $104 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaway: Relative resilience in Asia: The Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 outperformed most Asian peers during the US–Iran war 2026, declining only -3.3% and -1.1% respectively from 27 Feb to 6 Mar, while markets like the KOSPI and Nikkei 225 suffered deeper losses amid rising oil-driven stagflation fears.Policy supports cushioning markets: Investor sentiment in China and Hong Kong improved after signals from the National People's Congress, where Li Qiang outlined a 4.5%–5% growth target and a stronger focus on boosting domestic consumption and reversing deflation risks.Key technical levels to watch: The Hang Seng Index rebounded from 24,765 long-term support and reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Bulls need a break above 26,350 to confirm a stronger recovery, while a drop below 25,385 risks a retest of the 24,765 support zone. The China and Hong Kong benchmark stock indices have outperformed their major Asian Pacific peers among global stock indices in the ongoing 10-day US-Iran war.Based on a reference period from 27 February 2026 to last Friday, 6 March 2026, where the start of the reference period is one day before the US-Iran war kick-started on 28 February, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s CSI 300 shed -3.3% and -1.1% respectively, while the narrower China A50 was almost unchanged (+0.2%) (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Performances of global benchmark stock indices from 27 Feb 2026 to 6 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) In contrast, South Korea’s KOSPI plummeted 11% (the worst hit), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 5.5% due to stagflation fears from higher oil prices.China, Japan, and South Korea are significant net oil importers. The reason why China and Hong Kong stock markets have managed to take a lesser “bearish hit” from the recent upward spiral in oil prices (WTI crude oil staged a weekly gain of 35.6% for the week of 2 March 2026) was due to guidance on China’s next 5-year economic strategy during last week’s key National People’s Congress meeting.China’s leadership has set a lower economic growth rate target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, the least ambitious to rebalance China’s economy from exports, its current growth driver. In addition, Premier Li Qiang’s speech has made a subtle acknowledgment of deflationary risk towards the economy, and pledged to bring prices back into positive territories, and called for a modest rebound in the inflation trend (versus last year’s vaguer speech to get prices to a reasonable range).Hence, such statements and new growth targets from China’s leadership suggest that top policymakers are making domestic consumption have a more significant influence in driving China’s economic growth in the next five years.Let’s now look at the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the Hang Seng Index from a technical analysis perspectiveHang Seng Index – Rebounded back above the key 200-day moving average Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 10 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD index major & long-term secular trends as of 10 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent -11% decline seen from the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures from its 26 January 2026 high to Monday’s 19 March 2026 low of 24,882 has stalled right at the 24,765 long-term pivotal support depicted on its weekly chart (see Fig. 3).Today, it has staged an intraday rebound of 1.6% and traded back above the 200-day moving average at the time of writing, reinforced by US President Trump’s remarks that signaled a possible end to the current US-Iran war.Watch the 25,385 key short-pivotal support on the Hong Kong 33 CFD index for a potential minor recovery in the first step to test the 26,350 key intermediate resistance.A clearance above 26,350 (also the descending channel resistance in place from 29 January 2026 high, and close to the 20-day/50-day moving averages) suggests a bullish exit and a possible start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 26,690 and 27,100 in the first step (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 25,385 invalidates the recovery scenario for a push down to retest the 24,765 key long-term pivotal support.Key elements to support the bullish bias on the Hang Seng Index Today’s positive price reaction has occurred right above the 24,756 key long-term pivotal support and the reintegration back above the 200-day moving average (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region before it stages the bullish breakout above its descending trendline resistance today (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been on a significant run since the beginning of the US-Iran-Israel war, quickly breaching its prior 2026 records.When the night falls, the wolves step out – Dollar bears had dominated the narrative since early 2025 and have kept insisting on a weaker dollar despite largely rangebound action since July.This bearishness had largely been covered throughout our previous Dollar analyses and reached a peak after the recent Bank of America's Fund Manager survey.When the Market is short and a catalyst for shortage lands, it leads to explosive moves, and that's precisely what happened with the USD.The US-Iran war sparked a swift need for dollars to protect against currency volatility, particularly to purchase oil at a much higher price. Hence, firms and institutions require dollar hedging to defend against a double-edged squeeze. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and Dollar correlation (bottom) and Relative Performance. Source: TradingView This added to the Momentum throughout last week's Globex Open and this week's spike.In case you missed the historic moves, WTI and Brent Oil prices have moved 25% on both sides throughout the overnight and morning session and are now settling closer to $95 as G7 nations expressed a desire to control the situation by releasing strategic reserves, as Maritime traffic near the Strait of Hormuz slowly picks up again. WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – March 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Note: Things just took an unexpected turn as I just posted this chart, Oil gapped lower to $83 – Remaining below $85 would bring back sellers in control, but tomorrow's close will be necessary; Expect volatility to remain high before that.We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar after its Market-sweeping rises. Discover:Stock Markets attempt rally after overnight War tumble, Oil back to $100 – US Index OutlookCrude prices skyrocket by +30%, stock markets tumble & week ahead previewGold’s (XAU/USD) Tug of War: : Oil spike, rate fears, and the battle for controlDollar Index 1H Chart Dollar Index 1H Chart, March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar just took a swift turn lower after the Market shaking Trump announcement.The overnight/morning action now points towards a clear double-top, pointing at a drop back towards 98.00, however, the 200-Hour MA (98.56) could act as support, so a rebound there will have to be monitored!Three levels are to be watched:The 98.56 200-Hour MA – Bouncing from here would maintain the rangebound picture in the Dollar (which would invite to trade ranges in related USD Pairs)Breaking the level lower points to:98.00 – The pre-War resistance. As long as prices remain above this level, the outlook for the Dollar is neutral and could still see a grind back towards 99.00Morning highs: 99.70 – Breaking back above would imply further chaos in the Middle East, hence, could see a breakout back towards November highs at 100.376.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsMorning Spike 99.70 and Double Top99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.70 to 99.00 Key Pivot (acting as mini-support)98.56 200-Hour MA98.00 Key Mid-Range SupportDecember Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD is attempting a bounce but is facing resistance at its 4H 50-period MA (0.7060) – closing above the MA in tomorrow's session should launch it back towards the February highs (0.7140).Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 4H MA 50 – 0.7060; Bullish above2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 Resistance (next resistance)0.71470 February highsJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support Levels0.69566 Overnight lows0.69 to 0.6945 Early Feb Support (if War drags on, could return here)Micro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Mini-support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is now bouncing off of its clean downward channel – It will also face its 4H 50-period MA (1.16730).If it breaks above, keep a very close eye on the downward channel top around 1.1750 to spot if the Channel holds.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.1640 to 1.1680 Resistance (4H 50-MA)1.1750 mini-resistance and Channel TopResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1580 to 1.16 Key PivotOvernight and Channel lows 1.150651.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As I was completing an upcoming piece on the US Dollar, things just changed swiftly (coming up soon)Trump just said during an interview that the War was "pretty much complete", implying a significant advance on his initial 4-5 week estimate.It seems a bit early for the warning however, so this report and move will have to be treated with caution.Check out this insane Oil chart! WTI (US) Oil 30M Chart – March 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Some feathers must have been lost today with the 30% up and down swings in Oil prices.Traders, make sure to keep your risk tight and size accordingly with the extent of the events.For those tracking live geopolitics, following what the IDF announces could provide somewhat less erratic news flows in order to trade the commodity. Keep a close eye on the $85 level. If you want to access more trading levels around the current trading area, check out our Friday analysis.Read More: Oil reaches $92 in a historic War squeeze – WTI AnalysisSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets faced a turbulent Monday due to surging oil prices (Brent crude futures jumped 14%) and escalating Middle East geopolitical tensionsEuropean shares, including the pan-European STOXX index, hit a two-month low following their worst week in nearly a year, with banking and tech sectors seeing sharp declines.Investor attention is fixed on upcoming critical US inflation reports, specifically Wednesday’s CPI and Friday’s core PCE deflator, with a "hot" PCE reading likely to reinforce a cautious Federal Reserve stance and further delay interest rate cuts.Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil key short-term support at $102.25 for another 20% rallyMarkets faced a turbulent Monday as Asian indices plummeted in response to surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. The inflationary pressure from rising energy costs has sparked fears of a worldwide spike in living expenses and interest rates, prompting a mass exodus of investors toward the liquidity of the US dollar.This instability is compounded by the political situation in Tehran, where the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader suggests that leadership structures remain intact a week into the conflict with the US and Israel. The economic fallout is particularly severe for major energy importers. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining impassable for tankers and no resolution to Middle Eastern hostilities in sight, markets are bracing for a prolonged period of high energy costs.Japan’s Nikkei took a significant hit, falling 7.0% on the heels of a 5.5% drop the previous week, while South Korea’s market saw an even sharper decline of 8.2%.China, despite maintaining substantial crude oil stockpiles, saw its blue-chip index slide 1.7%.Interestingly, while China reported a 1.3% rise in consumer prices for February, the uptick in inflation is viewed with a degree of nuance; for a nation that has historically struggled with disinflationary pressure, this shift isn't entirely unwelcome, even if the current oil spike threatens to accelerate that trend further.European shares hit 2-month low European equity markets faced a sharp downturn on Monday, with the pan-European STOXX index sliding 2.34% to reach its lowest level in over two months.This decline follows a bruising previous week, the worst in nearly a year as market participants react to an expanding Middle East conflict that has sent oil prices surging more than 25% toward $120 a barrel.The sell-off was felt acutely across multiple sectors, with banking stocks extending their recent losses by another 3.2% and the tech sector dropping 3.1%. The aviation industry also struggled under the weight of rising fuel costs, causing major carriers like Lufthansa and Air France-KLM to see significant share price declines.Conversely, the energy sector managed a slight gain of 0.1% due to the crude spike, and defense firms like Leonardo saw an uptick of 1.4% as regional tensions intensified.Adding to the pessimistic sentiment, fresh economic data revealed that German industrial orders for January fell well beyond expectations, underscoring broader concerns about European growth.With the markets in a defensive crouch, investor attention is now focused on upcoming commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde and other euro zone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting, where officials are expected to address the dual challenges of inflation and geopolitical instability.How did FX markets react? On Monday, the US dollar surged as investors sought safety amid escalating global instability, pushing major currencies significantly lower.The euro and sterling both saw substantial declines of 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, with the euro hitting a three-and-a-half-month low of $1.1534.Traditional safe havens were not immune to the dollar's strength; the Swiss franc fell 0.6% to trade at 0.7804 per dollar, while the Australian dollar also slipped roughly 0.6%.The dollar’s momentum slowed slightly during the Asian afternoon following a report from the Financial Times indicating that G7 finance ministers are preparing to discuss a coordinated release of oil from emergency reserves.This potential intervention, managed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), aims to stabilize energy markets after crude prices spiked over 25% due to the widening conflict in the Middle East.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Global energy markets experienced a historic "whiplash" session as oil prices surged toward $120 a barrel, reaching levels not seen since mid-2022.Driven by supply cuts from major producers and escalating fears of shipping disruptions amid the expanding conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, Brent crude futures jumped 14% to $105.71, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 13% to $103.06. At its peak during the day, Brent touched $119.50, marking the largest absolute single-day price jump in history.This massive spike follows an already aggressive rally last week, where Brent and WTI climbed 28% and 36%, respectively.In the precious metals market, gold prices retreated as the surge in the US dollar made the greenback-priced bullion more expensive for international buyers.Spot gold fell 1.4% to $5,097.70 per ounce, recovering slightly after an initial 2% drop earlier in the session, while US gold futures for April delivery settled 1% lower at $5,106.Beyond the currency pressure, the "haven" appeal of gold was countered by fears that skyrocketing energy costs will cement high inflation, effectively dimming any hopes for near-term interest rate cuts by central banks.Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 oil warning and the rate cut dilemmaChart alert: Why Japan’s Nikkei 225 can stage a minor recovery after its 4-day plungeTrade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleEconomic calendar and final thoughts As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious. The lack of high impact European data releases means markets will remain occupied by developments in the Middle East.Heading into the US session, the soft US jobs data from January would usually spark concerns, it is expected to take a backseat to this week’s critical inflation reports.Market attention is firmly fixed on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and Friday’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator. Analysts warn that the PCE figure could come in "hot" at 3.1% year-on-year, largely due to companies implementing annual price hikes at the start of the year.Such a result would likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, further delaying any anticipated interest rate cuts.In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has already been testing recent highs near 99.65/70 during Asian trading hours. Given the current lack of geopolitical de-escalation, the greenback appears poised for further gains.The index is likely to challenge a higher resistance range between 100.25 and 100.35 as the week progresses, driven by a combination of safe-haven demand and the prospect of a more hawkish Fed. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continued its decline with a gap down after the weekend.Having printed fresh lows this morning at 10073, the index is looking to recover some the gap over the weekend.For now though, this will depend on overall risk sentiment.The period-14 RSI on a four-hour chart is leaving oversold territory and is crossing back above the 30 handle. This would hint at a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.Immediate support rests at 10073 before the 10000 handle comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10207 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 10260 (closing the gap) handle and beyond.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 9, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Oil surges amid geopolitical supply fears: West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped as much as 30% intraday to $119.54, marking its highest level since 2022, driven by concerns that the US–Iran war in 2026 could disrupt global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Pullback after potential strategic reserve release: Prices later retraced to around $102–$103 after reports that several Group of Seven nations may coordinate a release of emergency oil reserves to ease supply pressures.Technical outlook remains bullish above key support: As long as WTI holds above $102.25, the short-term bullish acceleration phase may persist with potential upside targets at $124.40 and $130–$132, while a break below that level could trigger a deeper correction toward $92–$86. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in play”, published on 5 March 2026.West Texas (WTI) crude oil has continued its relentless bullish move in today’s Asia session, 9 March 2026, where it gapped up and staged an intraday rally of 30% to print a current high of $119.54/barrel, its highest level since June 2022.Thereafter, WTI crude oil gains have been reduced by almost half to around 13% to trade at around $102.90/barrel after a media report highlighted that three of the G-7 countries, including the US, have expressed support for a possible joint release of their respective stockpile of oil reserves.The recent steep rally seen in oil prices, WTI crude oil recorded a weekly gain of 35.6% for the week of March 2, 2026, its best weekly performance since the week of July 30, 1979 (+38.7%) has been attributed to a rising risk that global oil supplies may face significant shortages to the a prolong closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran stated that its military forces are prepared to continue an “intense war” against the US and Israel for at least six months.Here’s the latest potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI Crude Oil – Minor bullish acceleration phase remains intact Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 9 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $102.25 tightened key short-term pivotal support on the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures). to maintain the minor bullish acceleration leg/phase from the 26 February 2026 low.Next intermediate resistances are located at $124.40 and $130.30/132.67 (Fibonacci extension and the important major swing high of 7 March 2022, formed during the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).However, a break and an hourly close below $102.25 negates the bullish tone to kickstart an extended minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at $92.47 (lower limit of the gap support), and $86.10 (the pull-back of the former minor ascending channel resistance).Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI crude oil The current corrective pull-back from its intraday high of $119.54 has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep rally from the 4 March 2026 low to the 9 March 2026 current intraday high.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to start a rebound from a key ascending trend line support at around the 56 level, which suggests a potential revival of short-term bullish momentum. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil ends an erratic week, up more than 37% since last FridayWTI reaches historic volatility with Supply Fears reaching extremes, now back to 2023 levels.Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Oil took the center stage once again in this week's volatile action.Rising 37% since last Friday, Crude is now at concerning levels, even outperforming the January 2022 Ukraine-War weekly performance, reaching $92.68 this week—a reminder that the commodity was trading near $55 just about two months ago.The third ingredient in a daily toxic fundamental cocktail, Black Gold, is contributing to elevated inflation expectations. Although its closure isn't official, as during the 1970s, the Strait of Hormuz is subject to de facto restrictions, and virtually no ships have managed to cross it. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic – No one is crossing! Only nine ships have traversed the Strait of Hormuz this week – A major concern, particularly in Asia, where 90% of Middle Eastern Oil passes through.Maritime insurance companies have strictly restricted, and in some cases banned, all types of passage, with premiums rising to historic highs.A striking example of the damage done is seen in Singaporean Jet Fuel Prices, which have risen 140% since February 27. Singaporean Jet Fuel Prices – 1-Month prices (from March 5) With Iran adding further fuel to the fire (pun intended – even if this is nothing to joke about) by targeting Bahrain and other Gulf countries, the situation is certainly escalating.Qatar even warned of the possibility of seeing $150/barrel prices if the de facto closure sustains.To ease some price pressures, the US just launched a $20B reinsurance facility, which was met with a mildly headline-easing daily rise towards the close.US and Israeli strikes have also managed to destroy around 1,300 ballistic missile and drone launchers, leading to a now much more restricted number of attacks from the Islamic regime. This weekend will be very important towards incoming expectations, a week after the beginning of operations.As traders prepare to end another crazy week, let's explore a few key charts for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for what's coming.. Read More:The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?Middle East escalation sends shockwaves through global energy marketsStocks tumble after chaotic NFP and Oil action – Dow Jones & US Index OutlookLarge NFP miss and Oil surge to $90 – A Stagflation cocktail ahead of weekend riskUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWeekly Chart WTI Oil Weekly Chart – March 6, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil quickly broke above all types prior resistance, reaching a peak of $92.68 before slightly easing in the final hour of trading.Looking at 2025 levels is now quite useless, with this week's candle sweeping through the 3-year downward trend.Looking out, using September to October 2023 levels will provide more reliable levels in order to track upcoming support and resistance.Breaking $95 should quickly open the door for $100 per barrel.WTI Daily Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 6, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is closing its week off of its relative highs, a sign of balance amid the ongoing extreme squeeze – The RSI is naturally very overbought, but it is not a reliable indicator to watch during such high-paced trending environments.Nevertheless, any hopes for lower prices will first have to breach the $86.50 Momentum Pivot Zone.Any pullback below will then see a minor support between $83 and $84.The only Major support however will be the $78 to $80 2025 High Zone.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$89 to $91 October 2023 Pivotal Resistance (testing)Daily highs $92.64Next Major Resistance $93.50 to $95$98 to $100 ResistanceSupport LevelsApril 2024 Top – Momentum Pivot (Bullish above) $86.50 to $88.00$83 to $84 Mini-Support2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Monday spike $73.00 to $74.00September 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $682025 lows $55.00WTI 1H Chart WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 6, 2026. Source: TradingView The end session brought with it some timid profit-taking, as sellers attempt to bring back the action within the $89 to $91 resistance zone.Next week's open is virtually impossible to predict, but there are a few zones to watch:To the upside:The $95 Major Resistance; breaking above hints at a quick test to $100To the downside:The $86.50 Pivot Level, accompanied with the 20-Hour MA which could see some pullback buyingReactions to the channel retest in the event of a larger pullback (around $84)Breaking back below $78 would imply that the war premium is easing (far from the case for now) Safe Trades, a restful weekend, and keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (06/03/2026): Concluding an eventful week of trading, we once again join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest from financial markets, including a large miss in US jobs numbers and spiralling tensions in the Middle East. Join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Israel’s strike on Iran has sharply escalated regional tensions, with the conflict quickly spilling over into global energy markets through severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.Oil and gas prices have surged as shipping paralysis, insurance suspensions, and LNG export disruptions—especially from Qatar—tighten global supply and heighten market volatility.A prolonged conflict could deepen fiscal stress across Gulf producers, intensify inflationary pressure worldwide, and complicate the outlook for central bank interest rates. The key event of this week is undoubtedly Israel’s attack on Iran, carried out in cooperation with the United States, which began on the last Saturday of February. The objective of Operation “Epic Fury” is reportedly to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and dismantle the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of the two branches of Iran’s armed forces. Weakening this formation is of particular importance from Israel’s perspective, as a close US ally in the region, because the Corps—consistent with the principles of Iranian foreign policy—supports armed groups and terrorist organizations beyond the country’s borders, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and Hezbollah. One of their principal goals remains the destruction of the Jewish state and the carrying out of terrorist activities targeting its citizens.The Strait of Hormuz becomes a critical supply chokepointThe conflict quickly spilled over into commodity markets. In just one week, Brent crude prices rose by more than 28%, while WTI gained 37%. Weekly timeframe of Crude Oil WTI and Brent, source: TradingView Although geopolitical tensions have often supported rallies in the price of “black gold” in the past, the current scale of the move is primarily the result of the actual paralysis of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, located off Iran’s southern coast. Under normal conditions, this strategic chokepoint handles around 20–25% of global oil trade and nearly 20% of global LNG flows, making it vital to the energy balance of many regions. In recent days, the strait has effectively become a war zone. The Strait Of Hormuz, source: Bloomberg.com Drone attacks and shelling have brought commercial shipping almost to a standstill, even without a formal closure of the route. The situation has been further aggravated by insurers’ decision to suspend coverage for voyages through the Persian Gulf, which in practice has left hundreds of tankers stranded in ports across the UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Although the US and its allies are attempting to organize escorts and convoys, the risk of a direct strike remains high enough that many shipowners are choosing not to transit the area.Gulf producers face mounting export and fiscal pressureAt the same time, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait are facing the problem of physically being able to sell their output. Oil production continues, but export capacity has been sharply curtailed, while insufficient storage space for surpluses of around 20 million barrels per day is increasing pressure to cut production. This is a mechanism that, on the one hand, constrains global supply and supports prices, but on the other hand hits producers’ current budget revenue streams, worsening their short-term fiscal position.Europe feels the impact of the LNG shockAn equally strong shock has emerged in the gas market, with Qatar at the center of attention, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical bottleneck for its LNG exports. QatarEnergy declared force majeure and suspended operations at its terminals in Ras Laffan, effectively cutting the country off from part of its export markets. Europe is feeling the consequences particularly strongly. TTF gas futures have surged by around 67% to approximately EUR 53,385/MWh this week alone. Weekly Timeframe of Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, source: TradingView The European market’s sensitivity is even greater because gas inventories after the winter of 2026 are lower, estimated at around 30%, which reduces the safety buffer and increases the risk premium embedded in prices. Weekly change in Dutch front-month futures, source: Bloomberg.com Regional security risks extend beyond energy flowsThe conflict is also significantly altering the economic sense of security across the region. Saudi Arabia and the UAE do have infrastructure that allows them to partially bypass the strait, including pipelines directing crude to ports on the Red Sea, but their capacity is not sufficient to replace the scale of seaborne transport. Moreover, this infrastructure is becoming a natural target for potential Iranian retaliation, further weakening the viability of any real alternative to Hormuz. Iraq, meanwhile, particularly in the Basra region, has been forced to reduce production in the south of the country for security reasons, directly affecting public finances, as the state budget relies heavily on oil revenues. As a result, the disruption of a single strategic route not only increases oil and gas price volatility, but also raises fiscal and political risk across the region, intensifying global uncertainty and the likelihood of further energy supply disruptions. A prolonged conflict could reinforce global inflation risksNaturally, de-escalation of the conflict should bring some stabilization to commodity and energy markets. However, the killing of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may reduce Tehran’s willingness to negotiate and contribute to a prolonged military confrontation. In turn, a longer conflict in the Persian Gulf region could entrench high oil and gas prices, translating into inflationary pressure on a global scale. The effects would be visible not only in energy costs, but also in expectations regarding the path of central bank interest rates worldwide. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks get rejected roughly after a toxic fundamental comboGigantic misses in Non-Farm payrolls and Retails Sales combine with rising Oil prices towards Stagflation angstExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stagflation is the Market and Consumers' worst enemy, and it could well be at our doors.Amid ongoing chaos in the Middle East and continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Oil prices have exploded to 2023 highs throughout the morning action.As you can see on the chart below, rises in the Commodity's price aren't well received by investors. The reason is that higher Energy prices often correlate with squeezed profit margins due to higher transportation and production costs. Dow Jones and Oil Relative Performance since Beginning March – Source: TradingView Since the 1970s, our reliance on Oil for power production has been trending lower. However, we are still far from being isolated to rises in its costs – Hence, such brutal rises in energy commodities are often accompanied by swift climbs in inflation expectations.This also becomes a nasty head-scratcher for the Federal Reserve, which surely did not enjoy the recent CPI and PPI rises, which can only confirm what Participants fear the most. Stagflation had been avoided since the end of COVID restrictions, but it remained a cloud over our economies, and the storm could be approaching.Combine the 148K miss (!!!) on NFP with yet another slip on Retail Sales data, and investors can now officially be scared for what's to come – And the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow confirms this, falling from 3.2% to 2.1%! US Data this morning – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Still, Equity investors have found some kind of relief since the London Fix, as Rate cut expectations for the April 29 Rate Decisions have slowly crept up from 10% yesterday to the current 22%. The Mood remains fragile, and we'll see more details in the charts, but it resembles short-covering rather than a proper rebound. Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Large NFP miss and Oil surge to $90 – A Stagflation cocktail ahead of weekend riskChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comebackMarkets Today: Rate cut hopes wither as Nikkei and Kospi suffer steep weekly losses. NFP data up nextCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:07 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 6, 2026 Once again, the Market rejects almost all but Tech equities – The latters are bouncing up again from their struggles as they are getting priced to be the least influenced by rises in Petroleum prices, without counting their heavy use within this ongoing Modern warfare.It is also a rebalancing play unfolding, with the sector having already taken a beating since October while defensives and Manufacturing endured – A reason why Nasdaq has been withholding the correction better than its peers.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is subject to the most aggressive selling out of the three major US Indexes – Still down -1.30% despite the late-morning rebound.Having crossed below its downward channel, bears are now well in control and the action is now testing a quintessential 47,000 Support.With a 4H doji forming, two scenarios are ahead:A break below the 46,981 morning lows with heavy volume should see downward continuation, 46,500 is the next short-term target.Rebounding above the 47,507 morning highs with a 30M candle close above the level would point to a retest of the 48,000 Resistance.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPast Day Pivot 47,500 to 47,650Pivotal Resistance at 48,000November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsKey Support 47,000 to 47,200 (Morning lows, bearish below)Pre-breakout Mini-Support 46,50046,000 +/- 100 pts November Support45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is resisting the bearish flows seen in the Dow with tenacity – But the battle is not over yet for Bulls!A tweezer top bearish Candlestick formation could be turning the morning rebound into a more decidedly bearish action towards the weekend.Breaking below 24,400 would point to a range failure and further downside.However, if tech remains resilient against others, Nasdaq could well remain within its 24,400 to 25,000 range – contingent on the general Market anxiety not worsening.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,7504H 50-period MA 24,923Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceSupport Levels24,400 to 25,600 Key SupportFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,300October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (next target if break)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now testing the extreme lower bound of its 6-month consolidation and facing a reality check ahead.Breaking the 6,700 Double Bottom would be a nail in the coffin for the Major Index.However, bulls will hope to see continuation from the resilient price action this morning.The afternoon Session will be absolutely essential for future price action. Monday's Open will have the same effect!S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,8406,770 to 6,800 Psychological SupportPrevious day lows 6,710February lows 6,710 to 6,7306,680 to 6,700 Next Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold pulls back despite geopolitical tensions: Gold (XAU/USD) is down about 3% for the week after an earlier 20% four-week rally, even though the US–Iran war 2026 initially pushed prices to a record $5,420 intraday high.Rising real yields cap gold’s upside: A 21% surge in West Texas Intermediate crude oil lifted inflation expectations, pushing the US 10‑year Treasury real yield up by ~20 bps, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and dampening its safe-haven rally.Technical setup suggests possible rebound: Gold is holding near key support around $5,046 (20-day moving average and Fibonacci support). If prices break above $5,280, a bullish move toward $5,448 could follow, while a drop below $5,046 risks deeper downside toward $4,960–$4,842. The prior 4 weeks of positive returns seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from the week of 2 February 2026 to the week of 23 February 2026, where the precious yellow metal staged an accumulated gain of 20% (low to close during the 4 weeks).Right after the first salvo of missiles fired jointly by the US and Isreal in the current US-Iran war, Gold (XAU/USD) gapped up on Monday, 2 March 2026, at the start of the Asian session with an intraday rally of 2.7% to print an intraday high of $5,420 (also the highest level traded so far this week at the time of writing).Gold is trading at a loss despite rising geopolitical risk premiums from US-Iran war Fig. 1: Key global cross-asset performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 5 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Thereafter, bullish momentum tapered off, and Gold (XAU/USD) is now trading at a week-to-date loss of 3% at the time of writing.Also, based on last Friday’s 27 February closing levels to Thursday, 5 March prices, LMBA spot Gold and NYMEX Gold futures have recorded losses of -2.3% and -2.9% respectively (see Fig. 1).The primary reason for Gold not staging a similar pace of gains seen in West Texas crude oil, Brent, and LNG amid rising geopolitical risk premiums is due to the fear of stagflation risk that may put the current expectations of two interest rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) by the US Federal Reserve in jeopardy, that also implies a rising risk of higher opportunity cost for holding Gold which is a non-interest income bearing asset.Higher oil prices have triggered a jump in 10-year US Treasury real yield Fig. 2: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Higher oil prices seen this week (WTI crude jumped by 21%) have increased inflationary expectations, in turn, triggering a rise of 20 basis points (bps) in the 10-year US Treasury real yield (10-year US Treasury nominal yield minus 10-year US breakeven inflation rate) from its medium-term range support of 1.66% to a current level of 1.86% (see Fig. 2).Interestingly, the current rally in the 10-year US Treasury real yield is now back close to the 200-day moving average (1.9%), and the key range resistance of 1.98% that capped prior rallies in check since 19 August 2025.In addition, its daily Stochastic oscillator has reached its overbought region of above 80, which suggests that the current up move in the 10-year US Treasury real yield may start to taper off, in turn, allowing Gold (XAU/USD) to stage at least a minor bullish reversal at this juncture.Let us now dissect the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.Gold (XAU/USD) – Holding at the 20-day moving average support Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $5,046 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD) for a potential minor bullish reversal scenario, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at $5,192 and $5,280 (see Fig. 3).A clearance above $5,280 is likely to see the bulls gaining traction to kickstart a minor bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next resistance to come in at $5,448 in the first stepHowever, a break and an hourly close below $5,046 invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for a further corrective slide towards the next intermediate supports at $4,960 and $4,842 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The $5,046 key short-term support confluences with the 20-day moving average, minor ascending channel support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor rally from the 17 February 2026 low to the 2 March 2026 high.The hourly MACD trend indicator has formed a “higher low” (bullish divergence condition) below its centreline, which suggests that the current bearish momentum may have eased. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI suffered their steepest weekly losses in nearly a yearCrude oil (Brent +17.2%, WTI +20%) logged its sharpest weekly surge since early 2022The US Dollar Index (DXY) had its biggest weekly surge since late 2024Money markets pivoted to increase bets on potential rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) to combat rising, energy-driven inflation. NFP data ahead.Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in playJapanese equity markets suffered their most significant weekly retreat in nearly a year this Friday as escalating conflict in the Middle East severely restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz.This geopolitical friction choked global oil supplies, prompting a widespread flight from risk assets into the safety of cash. While the Nikkei 225 Index managed a slight recovery of 0.6% to finish at 55,620.84 on Friday, the broader picture remained bleak. The benchmark concluded the week with a 5.5% loss, marking its steepest percentage decline since the tariff-induced volatility of April 2025.Sector performance and energy slumpThe broader Topix followed a similar trajectory, gaining 0.4% on the day but ending the week down 5.6%. Energy-related stocks bore the brunt of the market's anxiety:Energy explorers: One of the worst-performing sectors, down 1.9%.Inpex: Dropped 1.7%.Japan Petroleum Exploration: Shed 2.6%.Oil sector index: Declined 1.2% overall.Conversely, the technology sector provided a rare bright spot. Following a positive lead from Wall Street, software and IT shares rallied, with Fujitsu and NEC climbing 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively. Regional Volatility: South Korea's record weekSouth Korean markets experienced even more dramatic swings, ending a week of extreme volatility with the KOSPI’s largest weekly drop since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. The index plummeted 10.56% over the five-day period, fueled by a staggering 12% crash on Wednesday before a partial 10% rebound on Thursday. On Friday, the KOSPI remained relatively flat, closing at 5,584.87 as investors engaged in "dip-buying" near the 5,500-point support level.Strategic Oil ReservesThe regional instability is particularly acute for South Korea, which ranks as the world’s fourth-largest oil importer and relies on the Middle East for 70% of its supply. To mitigate the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the South Korean government has announced plans to secure more than 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to stabilize domestic energy needs.European shares up on the day but down for the week European equity markets saw a modest recovery on Friday as a temporary reprieve in the surging energy sector bolstered investor sentiment.The STOXX 50 climbed 0.5% while the STOXX 600 edged up 0.2%, driven largely by gains in the industrial and consumer cyclical sectors. Despite this daily bounce, the broader market remains on edge as the conflict with Iran enters its seventh day, leaving significant geopolitical uncertainty hanging over the region.Winners and Losers: Sector breakdownThe day's performance was a tale of two halves, with luxury and defense leads offset by a slump in healthcare and tech:Luxury & Tech Gains: Market heavyweights like SAP (2%), Siemens (1.4%), LVMH (1%), and Hermes (1%) all trended higher.Defense Surge: Ongoing Middle East tensions fueled interest in defense contractors, with Dassault Aviation jumping 4.3%, Rheinmetall rising 3.3%, and Leonardo gaining 2.6%.Aviation: Lufthansa shares soared 3% following an earnings report that exceeded analyst expectations.The Downside: High-profile laggards included Roche (-2.7%), Novartis (-1.3%), ASML Holding (-1.1%), and Unilever (-0.6%).While Friday provided some relief, the weekly totals tell a much more somber story. Both major indices suffered their steepest weekly retreats since April 2025. Source: LSEG The week's sharp decline reflects the deep-seated anxiety regarding energy supply chains and the potential for further escalation in the Middle East.How did FX markets react? The US dollar maintained a position of strength on Friday, positioning the greenback for its most significant weekly surge since late 2024.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against a basket of major peers, edged higher to 99.14, marking a 1.5% increase for the week. This rally came at the expense of other major currencies: the Euro tumbled 1.9% for the week to $1.159, its steepest decline since 2022 while the Yen softened to 157.77 per dollar and Sterling nudged lower to $1.3347.The primary catalyst for the dollar's dominance is the escalating conflict with Iran, which has sent energy prices soaring and reignited fears of a global inflation resurgence. This shift in the economic landscape has forced traders to aggressively re-evaluate the timing of central bank rate cuts:Federal Reserve: Expectations for a June rate cut have withered, with the CME FedWatch Tool now pricing in only a 34% probability of easing.Bank of England: Traders have similarly pared back expectations for rate relief in the UK.European Central Bank: In a sharp pivot, money markets are now increasing bets on potential rate hikes later this year to combat rising costs.As investors pivoted toward the dollar and braced for "higher-for-longer" interest rates, the cryptocurrency market experienced a cooling effect. Risk-off sentiment pushed Bitcoin down 0.96% to $70,459.79, while Ether followed with a 1.21% decline, settling at $2,055.42.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs The global energy market is currently navigating its most volatile period in years, with crude oil on track for its sharpest weekly surge since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022.Driven by the widening conflict in the Middle East, Brent crude has skyrocketed 17.2% this week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged by 20%.Although prices eased slightly on Friday, with Brent dipping 0.6% to $84.88 and WTI falling 0.8% to $60.40, the decline was largely attributed to a strategic move by Washington. To alleviate immediate supply constraints, the US issued waivers for certain Russian oil purchases, providing a minor relief valve for the parched energy market.Gold markets saw a defensive rebound on Friday as investors sought out the safety of bullion amidst the escalating geopolitical instability. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $5,117.27 per ounce, recovering from a sharp 1% drop in the previous session.US gold futures for April delivery followed suit, climbing 1% to reach $5,126.70.A point that may be worth mentioning, CME Group cut initial margins on gold and silver futures yesterday. This move follows a period of "forced liquidations" where traders were squeezed out of positions. Lowering margins reduces the capital required to hold a contract, which should stabilize the market by inviting speculative buyers back in and thus could provide some support to both Gold and Silver prices.Read More:Chart alert: Why Japan’s Nikkei 225 can stage a minor recovery after its 4-day plungeNFP Preview: Jobs to drive volatility amid "operation epic fury" & implications for the DXY, Dow JonesTrade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleEconomic calendar and final thoughts As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious, shifting their focus toward upcoming eurozone revised GDP data and some ECB policymaker comments.Looking ahead to the US session, focus shifts back to US economic data today with the release of the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and retail sales reports.While the consensus anticipates a respectable addition of 55,000 jobs following a robust 130,000 increase in January, some analysts are bracing for a softer or even negative reading due to the severe winter weather that gripped the US in late January and early February.A disappointing figure could trigger a brief dip in the US dollar; however, any losses are expected to be short-lived as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to fuel safe-haven demand.Markets are also closely watching for a reaction from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller, who notably dissented in January in favor of a 25bps cut, is scheduled for a televised appearance at 1:30 PM CET today.Current expectations suggest he may pivot toward advocating for a "pause" in rate adjustments. Such a stance would likely offer additional support to the greenback, adding another layer to today's complex dollar narrative.Unless a significant political breakthrough leads to a ceasefire, the dollar appears unlikely to enter a sustained decline. Instead, the global economic story remains dominated by governments struggling to manage the inflationary fallout of record-high energy prices—a scenario that remains fundamentally bearish for global bond markets.DXY Expected Range: 98.50 – 99.50Key Support/Resistance: 99.00 remains a critical psychological pivot point.Verdict: It remains too early for a meaningful sell-off in the dollar given the current "fog of war." For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has slipeed below both the 100 and 200-day MAs.Having printed fresh highs on Friday around the 10935 handle the index is experiencing a pullback with the rise in geopolitical risks.For now though, a deeper pullback to support around the 10233 and 10144 mark cannot be ruled out.Only a four-hour candle close above the swing high point at 10628 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.Immediate support rests at 10233 before the 10144 handle comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10447 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 100-day MA at the 10628 handle and beyond.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, March 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Oil shock drove the sell-off: Since the start of the US–Iran War, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 6.1% in four days, underperforming global peers as Japan’s heavy reliance on imported oil heightens stagflation risks.Yield curve shift may support equities: A bull steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve (10-yr minus 2-yr), partly driven by expectations of a less hawkish Bank of Japan, historically correlates with upside momentum in the Nikkei and may support a short-term rebound.Technical signals suggest a near-term bounce: The index has repeatedly held support around its 50-day moving average, with momentum indicators turning positive; a break above 56,530 could trigger a recovery toward 57,140–58,140, while a drop below 52,960 would invalidate the bullish scenario. Since the start of the ongoing US-Iran war, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is one of the worst-performing key global benchmark stock indices due to being a major oil net importer, where the steep rally seen in oil prices in the past four days increases the odds of a negative feedback loop towards Japan’s economic growth prospects via the stagflation fear factor.Japan’s Nikkei 225 is one of the worst-performing global benchmark stock indices Fig. 1: Key global stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 5 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The Nikkei 225 staged a decline of 6.1% from last Friday, 27 February to Thursday, 5 March, underperforming other key Asia Pacific stock markets; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-4.9%), Singapore’s Straits Times Index (-3%), Australia’s ASX 200 (-2.8%), and China’s CSI 300 (-1.3%) (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the 4-day plunge of the Nikkei 225 is likely to stage a minor recovery at this juncture, supported by technical and intermarket factors.Let’s dive deeper into these aspects.A lesser perceived hawkish BoJ triggers a bullish steepening of the JGB yield curve Fig. 2: JGB yield curve (10-YR minus 2-YR) medium-term trend with Nikkei 225 as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Since the start of the ongoing major bullish trend phase of the Nikkei 225 from early April 2025, the upward trajectory of the Nikkei 225 has been supported and moved in a significant direct correlation with the steepening of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve spread (10-year JGB yield minus 2-year JGB yield) (see Fig. 2).As of 6 March 2026, the BoJ has conducted four interest rate hikes in its current tightening cycle, which began in 2024 as it exited from its ultra-easy monetary policy stance and negative interest rate environment.The policy interest rate currently stands at 0.75%. Market participants polled by various media outlets expect the BoJ to continue its gradual interest rate hike policy by enacting 1 to 2 hikes in 2026 to bring the year-end target policy interest rate higher to 1.0%-1.25%.The 2-year JGB yield is very sensitive to the latest monetary policy stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as perceived by traders in the JGB market.The 2-year JGB yield rocketed to a 30-year high of 1.31% on 9 February 2026 after the BoJ's last interest rate hike in December 2025, and Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party won a super majority in the lower house of Japan's parliament on 8 February 2026 snap election.Since 9 February 2026, the 2-year JGB yield has softened by 7 basis points to trade at a current level of 1.24% at the time of writing and formed a “lower high” (see Fig. 2).The current path of minor decline in the 2-year JGB, while still holding above its 50-day moving average, suggests that the BoJ may offer guidance to pause its interest rate hike cycle in the upcoming 19 March 2026’s monetary policy meeting due to the negative impact of higher oil prices arising from a prolonged US-Iran war.A less hawkish expectation in BoJ’s future monetary policy stance can be implied by the recent rebound in the 10-year/2-year JGB yield curve spread, where a key support was tested at 0.84% (also its 200-day moving average) on Monday before it rebounded by 8 bps to trade at 0.92% at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).Hence, a further bull steepening of the JGB yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) can translate into a minor recovery (at least in the first step after the 4-day plunge of the Nikkei 225 staged a retest on its 50-day moving average).Let’s now look at the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).Nikkei 225 – Bullish momentum at 50-day moving average Fig. 3: Japan 225 minor trend as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have managed to find support at the 50-day moving thrice this week on three occasions; 3 March 2026, 4 March 2026, and 5 March 2026.Watch the 54,100/52,960 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 56,530 increases the odds of a minor recovery to see the next intermediate resistances to come in at 57,140 (also the 20-day moving average) and 58,140, respectively (see Fig. 3).On the flip side, a break with a daily close below 52,960 invalidates the recovery scenario to kickstart a medium-term downtrend phase (multi-week) to expose the next intermediate supports at 52,960 and 52,260 in the first step.Key elements to support the bullish bias on the Nikkei 225 The recent rebound seen on the 54,100/52,960 key medium-term support zone also confluences with the major ascending channel support in place since the 7 April 2025 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its descending trendline resistance and jumped higher above the 50 level, a potential resurgence of minor bullish momentum condition. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 5 Today's trading was definitely not as hopeful as yesterday, reminding everyone how tricky Markets can be.It certainly hasn't been a typical Market amid the ongoing brutal US-Iran war. Safe-havens like Bonds and Gold are once again hurting from profit-taking and inflationary fears, but Equity Markets haven't fared much better.As detailed in our earlier Oil Market analysis, as long as the commodity finds reasons to rise, investor mood will continue to degrade, and that is precisely what happened today.Energy commodities found a new bid in today's volatile session, as attacks on Gulf countries and their oil-producing facilities are multiplied, with the Iranian regime decidedly sparing no one in their ruthless ripostes – Even Azerbaijan was victim of a drone attack today.Today, the Islamic regime sent out brutal waves of attacks against an oil production facility in Bahrein, which sent Black Gold flashing to July 2024 highs ($82.30 for WTI!) and turned Market mood on its head – Stock Markets have fallen around the globe, with slight corrections in the US (~ Down 1%) and larger ones in Europe (~ -3%). US Oil 30M Chart – Source: TradingView – March 5, 2026 What saved the American session, however, was China's announcement of talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Oil and natural gas deliveries to Asia. Iran has close ties to China, so participants are taking this news more seriously.If Oil falls below $80 and remains there for a while, it will help to sustain a more decent Market mood.Risk assets have since rallied significantly from their lows, and Oil has eased back. You can take a look at the brutal Stock Market reversal right below! US Oil 30M Chart – Source: TradingView – March 5, 2026 Read More:The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?EUR/USD: NFP looms as 1.1578 support faces critical testChart alert: DAX’s dead cat bounce may have ended, watch 24,000 downside triggerChart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in playStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 5, 2026 Most of the Market got battered today, with the end-session rebound really saving the action from a very ugly-picture.Local winners include tech stocks, which continue to trade higher (less affected by the war, on the contrary), and Energy equities which keep enjoying from higher Oil prices.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's asset picture sends out stagflationary fears, with all types of assets correcting amid the daily Oil explosion.It is surprising to see that metals are also getting heavily rejected, but less surprising if you had check out our recent Gold analysis!This war trade has moved in several faces and should expect to continue acting very dynamically – Oil remains the product to watch, for the rest, things are a bit all over the place!Watch how sentiment sustains after today's late-session rebound.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 5, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs After a 2-session break in its rally, the US Dollar is forming the basis for another rally.Keep a close eye on the Dollar Index – If it breaks its preceding peak (99.68), furious short-covering could be unfolding.Still, the Dollar eased its ascention after the China comments. It remains the safe-haven currency during this war trade, so keep track of how it evolves.Risk-currencies like the AUD and NZD took a beating on the other hand! Large profit-taking going on there!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. As if Iran news weren't enough, traders should be preparing for a banger tomorrow.Non-Farm Payrolls and US Retail Sales will be releasing at the same time, so traders will have to keep a close eye on potential data divergence – expect reactions to the data to remain a priority throughout until ~10:00 (post-Market open). Keep a close eye on the Unemployment Rate!After this, traders will focus back on Weekend risk.Euro traders will also have to remain attentive to the Eurozone GDP, with Christine Lagarde also speaking similarly (5:00 A.M. ET).Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The pair is under pressure, trading below 1.1600 due to geopolitical tensions (Middle East conflict, Iran leadership) and the ECB's "persistent uncertainty" which prevents the Euro from decoupling from the US Dollar's strengthThe highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report tomorrow is expected to cause significant volatility, with a strong reading cementing Dollar dominance.The immediate future hinges on the 1.1578 support level.Most Read: NFP Preview: Jobs to drive volatility amid "operation epic fury" & implications for the DXY, Dow JonesEUR/USD finds itself at a critical technical and fundamental juncture. After a volatile week defined by a "flight to safety," the pair has broken back below the psychological 1.1600 barrier.What is driving EUR/USD price action? One could almost call EUR/USDs conundrum as a ‘tale of two tensions’. The pair is navigating through a mix of geopolitical anxiety and central bank caution.The European Central Bank (ECB) published its meeting accounts today. While the Governing Council expressed confidence that inflation is trending toward target, they emphasized "persistent uncertainty."This cautious rhetoric suggests the ECB is in no rush to pivot aggressively, but it also fails to provide the hawkish spark the Euro needs to decouple from the Dollar’s strength.Add to this the escalating conflict in the Middle East and you have a cocktail for explaining the slide in EUR/USD.Looking at the latest from the Middle East, according to reporting from Axios, President Trump has asserted that he must be personally involved in the process of selecting Iran’s next leader. While acknowledging that Mojtaba Khamenei is currently the most likely individual to succeed the Supreme Leader, the President characterized such an outcome as unacceptable.This is likely to keep tensions high and a peace deal or ceasefire out of reach which would continue to lend support to the US Dollar and drag EUR/USD lower.NFP & jobs data tomorrow Recent US economic indicators, including a strong ISM Services PMI (56.1) and steady private payroll data, continue to paint a picture of US economic outperformance. This "American exceptionalism" keeps the Federal Reserve's policy path looking more robust compared to its European counterpart.Tomorrow though will bring the highly anticipated NFP release. As the most significant labor market data point of the month, a strong reading could cement the Dollar's dominance, while a miss might provide the Euro the breathing room it needs to stage a relief rally. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) What comes next for EUR/USD? The immediate future of EUR/USD hinges on whether the 1.1578 support level can hold on a daily closing basis.The Bearish Case: If the pair closes below 1.1578, technical analysts warn of a "deeper slide" toward 1.1500. Such a move would likely be triggered by a renewed surge in oil prices (potentially toward $100/bbl) or a further escalation in regional hostilities.A test of the 1.1450 level will be intriguing. This has been a multi-year pivot level for EUR/USD and if this holds, it may present an opportunity for position traders.The Bullish Case: For a meaningful recovery, the Euro must reclaim its 200-day moving average near 1.1670. A break above this level would signal that the broader uptrend remains intact and could trigger a wave of technical buying back toward 1.1800.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, January 6, 2026 Source:TradingView.com For now, EUR/USD remains in a "wait-and-see" mode, pinned between geopolitical headlines and looming US data. Traders should remain cautiously optimistic only if 1.1580 holds; otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways European equities have weakened sharply, with the Euro STOXX 50 falling 6% over two days before a modest rebound, while the DAX remains down 4.3% since 27 February amid heightened geopolitical tensions.Ongoing conflict involving Iran and military actions authorised in the United States Senate risk prolonging Middle East energy disruptions, potentially raising energy costs for the European Union and weighing on regional equities.Technically, the DAX appears to be forming a bearish flag below 24,350, suggesting Wednesday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce”; a break below 24,000 could trigger further downside toward the 23,750–23,290 support zone. European stock markets have underperformed against their US peers at the start of this week, from Monday, 2 March 2026, to Tuesday, 3 March 2026, where the Euro STOXX 50 plummeted by 6%, recording its worst 2-day decline since early April 2025, when US President Trump unveiled his global US reciprocal tariffs.On Wednesday, 4 March, the European equities managed to stage a comeback due to “bargain hunting”. The German DAX managed to end Wednesday’s session with a gain of 1.7%, with a similar magnitude seen in the Euro STOXX 50.DAX is still in the red despite Wednesday’s rally Fig. 1: Key global stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 4 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Overall, the European stock markets are still trading in the red since last Friday, 27 February till Wednesday, 4 March, where the German DAX recorded an accumulated loss of 4.3%, and fared better than several key Asia Pacific and Emerging Asia stock markets; South Korea’s KOSPI (-18.45), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-7.8%), Taiwan’s TWI (-7.3%), and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-5.2%) (see Fig. 1).The European Union economy is dependent on the Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas, which accounted for approximately 3.5% to 3.8% of the EU's total gas supply in 2025.The US-Iran war is still showing no signs of de-escalation, and the US Senate has cleared the way for President Donald Trump to continue military attacks on Iran in a vote.Press briefings from the White House so far have offered little clarity on a potential endgame to the conflict, leaving the risk of prolonged oil and gas supply disruptions in the Middle East elevated. Such uncertainty could amplify energy price pressures and inflict near-term economic strain on the European Union, in turn detrimental to European stock markets.Let’s now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the German DAX from a technical analysis perspective.DAX – Formation of “bearish flag” below 24,350 Fig. 2: Germany 30 CFD index minor trend as of 5 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 24,350 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 27 February 2026 high to 3 March 2026 low), and a break below 24,000 (lower boundary of the “bearish flag” exposes the next intermediate supports at 23,750, 23,480, and 23,290 (a Fibonacci extension level) (see Fig. 2).However, a clearance and an hourly close above 24,350 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 24,715 and 25,020.Key elements to support the bearish bias on DAX The 3.2% rally (low to high) seen on the Germany 30 CFD index (a proxy of the DAX futures) from the 3 March 2026 low of 23,592 has formed a potential minor “bearish flag” configuration, which suggests a “dead cat bounce” within a downtrend phase.The recent rally has stalled at the 200-day moving average. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

South Korea's KOSPI surged 9.63% to lead a strong rebound across Asia, fueled by optimism over potential US-Iran diplomatic progress.The pan-European STOXX 600 dipped 0.3%, weighed down by escalating geopolitical conflict.Upcoming eurozone retail data, an ECB speech, and key US labor data (Challenger job cuts) are expected to drive market focus and potentially further support the US Dollar.Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in playAsian markets saw a stellar rebound this morning led by South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index surging 9.63% to close at 5,583.90.This massive gain, which saw the index jump as much as 12.2% during intraday trading, effectively erased the majority of the record-breaking 12.06% loss suffered just a day prior.Investor sentiment was primarily lifted by optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Major tech players led the recovery, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix climbed 11.27% and 10.84% respectively, while LG Energy Solution posted a solid 6.91% gain.The rally extended across the broader Asia-Pacific region, with the Nikkei jumping 4.2% and the MSCI’s broadest regional index (excluding Japan) rising 3.9%.In China, the CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indices saw more modest gains of 1.4% and 1% as Beijing unveiled its 15th five-year plan. While the Chinese government set a slightly lower 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5% to focus on rebalancing the economy and addressing industrial overcapacity, the market was supported by pledges to boost innovation, high-tech sectors, and household consumption.European shares struggle European markets softened on Thursday as the pan-European STOXX 600 dipped 0.3% to 610.72 points, paring back some of the significant gains made during Wednesday’s recovery.Market sentiment was primarily dampened by the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which entered its sixth day following fresh Iranian missile strikes and a U.S. Senate decision to continue its air campaign. This geopolitical tension hit the mining sector particularly hard, leading market losses with a 1.5% decline.Beyond the geopolitical backdrop, a series of disappointing corporate earnings contributed to the downward trend.Shares of the payments firm Nexi were halted after a record 11.3% plunge following its full-year results, while DHL saw a 5.4% drop after reporting a slide in fourth-quarter operating profit.How did FX markets react? The US dollar resumed its upward trajectory on Thursday after a brief pullback.Although the "greenback" briefly retreated earlier in the session on tentative hopes for a shorter conflict and the restoration of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, these gains were quickly reversed.Ongoing hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran, now in their sixth day kept investors cautious following a fresh wave of Iranian missile strikes.Consequently, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.00, bringing its total weekly gain to nearly 1.4%.This renewed strength in the dollar pressured several major currencies and digital assets. Both the euro and sterling slipped, falling 0.2% and 0.27% respectively, while the Japanese yen gave back its early morning gains to trade flat at 157.08 per dollar.Commodity-linked currencies also felt the squeeze, with the Australian dollar dropping 0.35% and the New Zealand dollar declining 0.2%.Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market saw a cooling period, as both Bitcoin and Ether shed over 1% each, paring back the significant gains they had recorded during the previous session.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Energy markets continued their upward climb on Thursday. Brent crude rose 2.9% to reach $83.75 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 3.2% to $77.08.This sustained rally is being driven by significant supply disruptions, forcing several major producers to slash output while others scramble to implement emergency security measures to protect global energy flows.In the precious metals market, spot gold edged up 0.4% to $5,153.11 per ounce as investors sought safety amid the widening Middle East crisis. While the geopolitical instability provided a clear floor for bullion, further gains were capped by a rebounding US dollar.The sentiment did not extend to industrial precious metals, however; silver tumbled 1.5% to $82.20 per ounce, while palladium and platinum also faced downward pressure, dropping 1.2% and 0.5% respectively.Read More:NFP Preview: Jobs to drive volatility amid "operation epic fury" & implications for the DXY, Dow JonesTrade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleIs Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?Economic calendar and final thoughts As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious, shifting their focus toward upcoming eurozone retail and construction data, as well as an afternoon speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde for potential signals on future monetary policy.Looking ahead to the US session, markets are bracing for a heavy data slate on Thursday, with the focus squarely on Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, and import prices.The Challenger report is particularly high-stakes following a massive surge in January, which saw 108,435 announced layoffs, the highest for that month since 2009, leading many to watch for signs of a cooling labor market.Given the prevailing economic uncertainty and the potential for these data points to signal a softening economy, many analysts suspect the US Dollar (DXY) could climb toward the upper end of its recent trading range.Simultaneously, the currency market remains transfixed by the volatility of European natural gas prices. As the conflict in the Middle East threatens energy security and drives Dutch TTF futures sharply higher, the resulting inflationary pressure and risk-off sentiment are expected to provide additional support to the greenback. Should gas prices continue their upward trajectory today, the Dollar Index (DXY) will likely edge back toward the $99.40$–$99.50$ area, reinforcing its dominance as a safe-haven destination during global turmoil.Lastly, keep a close watch on developments around the US and Iran. A short while ago reports stated that the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister has said they would be open to abandoning their nuclear program if the US can provide a good deal. No official confirmation on the comments, but as the saying goes “ where there's smoke, there's fire” rings true. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index fell around 500 odd points earlier this week.The Index breached the 100-day MA before finding support at the 200-day MA resting around the 10400 handle.Since then, the Index has bounced off the 200-day MA and is currently testing the 100-day MAA break above above the 100-day MA is needed for bulls to seize the initiative. Otherwise we could see price continue to compress between the 100 and 200-day MAs.Immediate support rests at 10500 before the 10439 (200-day MA) handle comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10628 (100-day MA) needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 10728 handle and beyond.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 5, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways WTI crude extends bullish breakout: Prices surged about 19% since 26 Feb, reaching a 14-month high near $78, after breaking a 28-month descending resistance, with geopolitical tensions from the United States–Israel strikes on Iran acting as the key catalyst.Geopolitical risk underpinning the rally: Rising fears that Strait of Hormuz—which handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade—could be disrupted have pushed prediction-market odds of a closure to above 86%, reinforcing the bullish outlook for oil.Technical momentum still positive: WTI maintains a bullish structure above $73.38 support, and a break above $78.10 could extend the rally toward $80.30 and $83.60–$84.55, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward $69–$67.80 before the next potential upside leg. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: WTI crude oil bullish flag in play above $64.15 as US-Iran talk looms”, published on 26 February 2026.The price actions of the West Texas (WTI) crude oil have staged the expected upside breakout from the minor bullish flag, as highlighted in our previous report.In addition, WTI crude broke above a 28-month major descending resistance from 28 September 2023 swing high, gapped up above $71.33 on Monday, 2 March 2026, triggered by joint attacks by the US and Israel on Iran.So far, WTI crude has rallied by around 19% since the publication of our last report on 26 February to print a 14-month intraday high of $78.06 on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.Below are several key support factors that oil prices can continue to see further potential upside despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, to prevent any significant oil supply shock triggered by potential Iranian sabotage on oil tankers.Rising odds on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran Fig. 1: Probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 as of 1 February 2026 (Source: Polymarket, MacroMicro) The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, is a crucial maritime energy chokepoint, as it handles a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade, making it one of the most critical globally.Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of today (Thursday), 5 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has increased to a current all-time high of 86.25%, surpassing the previous probability peak of 71.95% printed on 1 March 2026, during the onset of the latest US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).Since the start of the probability trend of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, there has been a significant direct correlation with the movement of the WTI crude oil futures.Hence, a fresh all-time high in terms of the probability of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from Polymarket suggests that the ongoing short to medium-term bullish trend phases of WTI crude oil can persist.Let’s now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI Oil – Bullish acceleration intact, looking to break above $78.10/barrel Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 5 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the tightened $73.38 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a bullish bias on the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures). A clearance above $78.10 increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $80.30 and $83.60/84.55 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, failure to hold with an hourly close below $73.38 support negates the bullish tone for a potential minor corrective decline to retest the next intermediate support zone of $69.26/67.80 (also close to the rising 20-day moving average) before the next potential bullish leg materializes for the West Texas Oil CFD.Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI Oil Price actions have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 26 February 2026 low, with its lower boundary at around $73.38.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former descending resistance and continued to trend higher above the 50 level. These observations suggest short-term bullish momentum remains intact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market expectations call for a significant deceleration in job growth (58k–65k), with sticky Average Hourly Earnings (+0.4% m/m) being the "danger zone" for potential stagflation.A strong NFP (> 100k) could see DXY rise toward 100.40 as rate cuts are priced out; a weak NFP (< 50k) could push DXY down toward 98.00 on bets of a Fed pivot.Dow Jones (DJIA) Implications, a moderate, "Goldilocks" number (70k–90k) would support equities, while a "Stagflation" shock (low jobs, high wages) or negative NFP would likely trigger a fresh sell-off.Most Read: Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleMarkets are gearing up for the March NFP release and yet focus ahead of the meeting is largely focused on the situation in the Middle East. Despite this, the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the fundamental "north star" for the Federal Reserve.Here is your preview for the March 6 jobs report and its expected impact on the markets.The Macro Backdrop: War and AI reality checks The market narrative has shifted violently this week. The "AI honeymoon" period of early 2026 met a jarring reality as President Trump signaled that "Operation Epic Fury", the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran could be a protracted engagement.With the Strait of Hormuz facing potential blockades and Brent crude surging into the $80s, the "low-hire, low-fire" labor regime is being tested by a new inflation shock channel: energy.The immediate focus for Friday is whether the cooling labor market will provide the Fed enough cover to cut rates despite these rising inflationary risks.NFP Consensus and Key Data Points Market expectations for the data (to be released March 6) suggest a significant deceleration from the previous month’s surprise strength:NFP Headline Forecast: 58k – 65k (Down from January’s 130k).Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady or edge up to 4.4%.Average Hourly Earnings: Forecasted at +0.4% m/m. This is the "danger zone" for the Fed; sticky wage growth combined with high oil prices creates a stagflationary headache.The "ADP Bellwether": Wednesday's ADP private payrolls came in at 63k, slightly beating the 50k estimate. However, a downward revision to the previous month’s figures dampened any bullish dollar sentiment, setting a cautious stage for Friday. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) The DXY has been oscillating near the 99.50 resistance level, buoyed by safe-haven flows due to the Iran conflict.Bullish Scenario (NFP > 100k): A surprise beat would likely be interpreted as a sign of economic resilience. Traders would price out a March rate cut, potentially propelling the DXY toward the 100.40 barrier. In a "war economy," a strong labor market allows the Fed to keep rates high to fight energy-driven inflation.Bearish Scenario (NFP < 50k): A significant miss would validate the "hard landing" fears. The DXY could retreat toward the 98.00 support level as markets bet the Fed will be forced to pivot to support the economy, despite the geopolitical noise.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, March 4, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Implications for the Dow Jones (DJIA) The Dow has recently endured a "tailspin," including a 1,200-point intraday slide earlier this week. It currently hovers around the 48,500 mark.The "Goldilocks" Outcome (70k – 90k): Equities would likely cheer a moderate number. It would suggest the economy is cooling enough to justify future easing without signaling a total collapse in consumer demand. This could see the Dow reclaim the 49,000 handle.The "Stagflation" Shock (Low Jobs + High Wages): If payrolls miss (under 50k) but wage growth remains hot (+0.5% or higher), the Dow could face a fresh sell-off. This scenario traps the Fed: they cannot cut rates to help the economy because wages and oil are fueling inflation.The "Recession" Fear (Negative NFP): Any print near zero or negative would likely trigger a flight from equities into bonds and gold, as the narrative shifts from "geopolitical volatility" to "fundamental economic decay."Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 4, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The market will try to determine if the American worker is strong enough to withstand both the "Epic Fury" of geopolitics and the quiet encroachment of AI on traditional roles.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.