Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways RBA steady, RBNZ dovish tilt: Australia’s central bank is expected to hold rates at 3.6%, while New Zealand’s weak labour market raises the odds of a more dovish RBNZ stance.Widening yield spreads: The 2-year and 10-year AU/NZ sovereign bond yield spreads are likely to widen further, favouring AUD strength over NZD.AUD/NZD strength: The cross pair has gained 5.8% since July 2025, hitting a three-year high of 1.1390, supported by relative macro and yield dynamics.Technical outlook bullish: Short-term bias stays positive for AUD/NZD above 1.1330 support, with scope to test 1.1435 and the long-term secular resistance at 1.1470. Australia’s central bank (RBA) is expected to keep its policy cash rate unchanged at 3.6% in today’s (30 September) monetary policy meeting after a third cut this year in August that marked a cumulative 75 basis points reduction.Australia’s labour market remains tight, while renewed inflationary pressures have emerged. The monthly CPI indicator climbed to 3% y/y in August 2025, its highest reading since July 2024, up from 2.8% in the prior month.The AUD/NZD cross pair has exhibited a multi-month Aussie outperformance over the Kiwi, where it rose by 5.8% since the July 2025 low of 1.0766 to hit a three-year high at 1.1390 at the time of writing.Let’s now examine a macro factor that still supports a continuation of strength in the AUD/NZD.A soft New Zealand labour market may trigger a further steepening of the AU/NZ sovereign bonds' yield spread Fig. 1: AU & NZ unemployment rate with yield spreads of AU/NZ government bonds as of 30 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) New Zealand's unemployment rate has accelerated to 5.2% in the three months through June 2025, its highest level since Q3 2020 during the onset of the pandemic.In contrast, Australia’s monthly unemployment rate for August 2025 slipped to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.The bleak labour market conditions in New Zealand increase the likelihood that the RBNZ will adopt a relatively more dovish monetary policy stance in the remaining months of 2025 compared to the RBA.The 2-year and 10-year yield spreads between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds are likely to widen further, which in turn could fuel additional upside pressure on the AUD/NZD cross rates (see Fig. 1).We will now focus on the short-term (1to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the AUD/NZD from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 2: AUD/NZD minor trend as of 30 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/NZD long-term secular trend as of 30 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1330 on the AUD/NZD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 1.1435 before a test on the 1.1470 long-term secular resistance (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price actions of the AUD/NZD have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 18 September 2025 low of 1.1151 (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/NZD has reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level), but it has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition. This observation suggests low odds of a bearish reversal for AUD/NZD (see Fig. 2).The 1.1470 long-term secular resistance of the AUD/NZD is defined as the upper limit of a 10-year-plus bullish basing configuration in place since April 2015 (see Fig. 3).In addition, the monthly MACD trend indicator of the AUD/NZD has managed to stage a rebound after a test of its ascending channel support right above the centreline. This observation suggests the potential start of a long-term secular bullish trend for the AUD/NZD, which increases the odds of a major bullish breakout above 1.1470 (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 1.1330 key short-term support for AUD/NZD invalidates the bullish scenario to kickstart a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1270 and 1.1205 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Trading at $3825.41 per troy ounce in today’s session, up a remarkable +1.74%, gold (XAU/USD) has once again renewed all-time highs, further extending yearly gains.As things stand, the yellow metal is on pace for its best yearly performance since 1979, up an astounding +45.75% year-to-date.Let’s examine the market fundamentals alongside some likely price targets in the upcoming sessions.Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 29/09/2025 Benefitting from a ‘perfect storm’ of macroeconomic factors, gold pricing has rallied to new highs in today’s session, and crucially, has broken above the key level of $3,800 for the first time in historyWhile gold prices have been rising throughout 2025, a more dovish Federal Reserve has given a new lease of life to the current uptrend, alongside a general depreciation in the US dollar’s value this yearGeneral market risk aversion, owing to geopolitical tensions, US trade policy, and questions over sovereign debt, continues to contribute to the current rally in precious metal pricing Read previous coverage: Gold (XAU/USD): In a bullish consolidation above US$3,688 despite a firmer US dollar Dollar Strength Index (DXY) vs. Gold (XAU/USD) year-to-date. OANDA/TVC, TradingView, 29/09/2025 Gold renews highs, breaking above $3,800 for the first time in history To say 2025 has been a good year for precious metals would be an understatement.While both gold and silver are on track for their best yearly performance in quite some time, this trend shows little sign of stopping as we approach the final quarter of 2025.To refresh your memory, here’s a quickfire round of three fundamental themes that have contributed to the current rally: Dovish Federal Reserve pivot: Despite a majority hawkish Fed for much of the year, gold continued its rally to new highs in 2025. More recently, however, a more dovish narrative, both from the reduction in the funds rate and commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers, has introduced a new tailwind to precious metal pricing, with lower interest rates directly benefitting non-yielding assets like gold. At the time of writing, markets overwhelmingly predict that the two remaining decisions of 2025 are likely to be in favour of further rate cuts: CME FedWatch, 29/09/2025 The fallout of dollar devaluation: Typically priced in USD, it seems intuitive that if the value of the dollar falls, precious metal prices will rise. While there is some truth to this, a broad-scale devaluation of the dollar, especially following concerns about sovereign debt, provides a larger catalyst to increasing gold prices than purely exchange rates alone. Ultimately, markets feel less comfortable this year using the dollar as a store of wealth than in years previous, opting for gold instead, and further compounding the effect of falling dollar pricing. Safe-haven inflows: While I use the term ‘safe-haven’ somewhat loosely, considering US equities have consistently pushed higher throughout 2025, a persistent feeling of economic uncertainty has made valuable contributions to the current rally in gold pricing. While recent rallies can be somewhat attributed to monetary policy expectations, demand for a secure store of wealth has steadily risen this year, with gold, silver, and the Swiss franc among the best-performing instruments of 2025 within their respective asset classes. This effect has been further amplified by considering that the safe-haven appeal of other major currencies, such as the dollar and the yen, is comparatively lower than it has been in recent memory. Currency Power Balance, 4H, OANDA Global Markets, 29/09/2025 Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 29/09/2025 As promised, let’s take a look at market technicals, starting with the daily, then moving on to the 4-hourly.Gold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis (29/09/2025) Gold (XAU/USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 29/09/2025 For gold bulls, current price action on the daily chart is nothing short of picture-perfect.Blasting through multiple key levels throughout 2025, most significantly the $3,000 mark first achieved in early March, gold pricing currently trades in excess of $3,800 per troy ounce for the first time in history, growing ever closer to $4,000.Having found a base of around $3,250, forming a slight upwards trending channel, price action in early September would break this period of consolidation and mark the start of the current rally, which, at least so far, shows little sign of exhaustion.With that said, we are currently in ‘overbought’ territory according to the RSI and trade some distance from the trendline, suggesting that short-term retracements are possible if the uptrend wishes to continue.As ever, data suggesting the Federal Reserve outlook is to become more dovish will likely support metal pricing further, with the opposite being true if the Fed is seen to become more hawkish ahead of their October decision.In line with Fibonacci theory, here are some key levels to watch: Price target: 0% Fib - $3,934Support 1: 50% Fib: $3,788Support 2: 61.8% Fib: $3,753Support 3: 78.6% Fib: $3,704 Otherwise, and when considering current conditions, price would have to fall considerably and break support held around $3,643 to question the longevity of the current move to the upside. Read more technical analysis from MarketPulse: US Oil (WTI) retreats after yet-another failed breakoutGold (XAU/USD): 4-hourly (H4) chart analysis (29/09/2025) Gold (XAU/USD) H4, OANDA, TradingView, 29/09/2025 With gold once again meeting all-time highs in today’s session, there is nothing above current price action to form a resistance to the current upside, while there is plenty to support to be found should price form a short-term correction. Support 1: $3,800 key psychological levelSupport 2: $3,787 major support on previous resistance turned supportSupport 3: $3,735 major support While predicting further upside can be tricky, considering the quite literally uncharted territory, current readings from both the Stochastic and RSI oscillators suggest that a price is currently ‘overbought’, and due for a retracement towards the trendline.Albeit unlikely, considering current conditions, if price falls below the third level of support, this could spell trouble for the current uptrend. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Price movements in the energy commodity markets are known to be volatile, with a huge number of factors influencing its supply and demand.Between global economic activity fluctuating, OPEC+ countries trying to shake each others out, and persistent wars implying re-routed exports/imports, trying to understand each and every move is a daunting, almost impossible task.But understanding movements is a task for historians, traders need to focus on the current course of action in an attempt to generate profits (and minimize losses that will always incur).Over the preceding week, the Trump Administration repeated their discontent over Europe still purchasing Russian oil through different routes, pushing the joint economy to find alternatives.This was a catalyst for a progressive yet explosive rise, taking prices from $62.20 lows on Monday to $67.80 highs Friday morning, a +7% move.However, things would be too easy if they were as straightforward: A Friday morning selloff took the commodity down 2% from its highs, and the move is continuing today.New export routes are re-opening with Iraq allowing Kurdish oil exports to Turkey after 2-and-a-half years of halt, adding even more supply to an oversupplied market.Oil companies are seeing the pressure, with Total Energies announcing just a few moments ago they would sell their global assets and keeping only their Europe, US and Brazil postiions.Let's dive into some key charts for WTI Oil. Read More:US Home Sales explode ! Monday news recap for US markets and economyMarkets Today: Gold Rallies 1.5% to Trade Above $3800/oz, US Government Shutdown in Focus & FTSE 100 Runs Into ResistanceMarkets Weekly Outlook – getting ready for September NFP weekUS Oil (WTI) technical analysisUS Oil Daily Chart US Oil (WTI) Daily Chart, September 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the more rangebound action, bears keep shoving breakout attempts and remain in technical control.Since the June War spike correction, prices have been forming downward steps in a consolidation - failed breakout - lower rejection pattern.Prices are now back to test the May range highs that has been acting as key support, but will be subject to a momentum goes into bearish territory and the action still evolves in a downward channel.Reactions to the current levels will be key to spot if buyers can generate a higher-low in prices. Failing to do so would confirm the ongoing $62 to $66 solid range.Let's take a closer look to get more details.US Oil 2H Chart and levels US Oil (WTI) 2H Chart, September 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView Our preceding oil market analysis had spotted a touch of the channel lower bound leading to a triple bottom rebound.However, the new supply channel news have scared bulls again even before reaching the highs of the downward channel seen on the daily chart.Momentum is now reaching oversold levels and reactions are now to be monitored closely. With the $63 to $64 support zone coming into play, bulls will have to hold to maintain a more balanced technical outlook.Failing to do so may lead to a repeat of the failed breakout into new lows pattern.Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsHigher timeframe pivot $65 to $66Mini resistance $66.50Shorter timeframe Consolidation Highs ($64.35 to $65 testing)50-Day MA $65.00July mid-range $67 resistanceSupport Levels$63 to $64 support zoneShorter timeframe Consolidation Lows ($62 to 62.50)September lows $61.84 to $62$60.5 Low of May Range Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Technical Breakdown & Key Levels Amidst Dollar StrengthThe US Dollar has been enjoying a renaissance of sorts this week with gains largely down to US data not being bad at all.Looking at the data this week, the sales rate for US new homes spiked back to levels last seen in early 2022.The report on US economic growth (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) was revised up significantly, showing the economy grew at a rate of 3.8% instead of the earlier estimate of 3.3%. A big reason for this improvement is that consumer spending (personal consumption) was much stronger, rising by 2.5% instead of 1.6% Perhaps even more important, the number of people newly filing for unemployment benefits (initial jobless claims) dropped for the second week in a row, falling from 232,000 to 218,000. This level is very low and much better than the average for the past year. This is a complete turnaround from two weeks ago, when claims had suddenly jumped to a high of 264,000, a number that now seems like a one-off mistake or "fluke."Finally, businesses unexpectedly bought more long-lasting goods (durable goods orders), rising by 2.9% in August.Add to that mixed messages from Federal Reserve policymakers and it has been an interesting week to say the least.A sign of the US Dollars sensitivity stems from changes by and large to US rate cut bets after each data release at the moment. This was evident by the uptick in US treasury yields this week.Market participants are seeing a less dovish picture as the data is released and reacting, even if the moves prove short-term in nature. There is a clear spike in volatility.US Dollar to Remain Sensitive to US Data Next week is another massive one with a host of high impact data releases.House prices have now dropped for four months straight because the number of homes for sale is rising while fewer buyers can afford them, and there is a growing probability that a fifth consecutive monthly drop will materialize next week, which will further hurt consumer confidence.Beyond housing, households are worried about tariffs driving up prices and reducing their spending, and they are becoming increasingly concerned about the job market; job creation has slowed dramatically, and recent re-evaluations suggest the slowdown started from a much weaker baseline than previously thought.While my prediction is a small but temporary bounce in job creation to 71,000 next week, this forecast is uncertain as the broader market expects another weak result.Even though inflation is still too high, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is committed to balancing both price stability and maximum employment, leading me to expect the central bank to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent at both their October and December meetings unless we get a major surprise in the coming weeks.According to LSEG data, markets are pricing in around an 87% probability of a rate cut in October and 62% of a rate cut in December.The implied rates have however shifted from around 47 bps through December 2025 to the current pricing of around 39 bps. Source: LSEG (click to enlarge) Whether the Dollar is able to hold onto recent gains and build on them will largely depend on the data next week. Deteriorating confidence and a poor job number could weaken the US Dollar and send it down to recent lows.Conversely, a strong jobs number and improving sentiment could aid the USD and help it build on recent gains. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical perspective, the US Dollar index on the weekly timeframe has printed a morningstar candlestick pattern which hints at further upside.Dropping down to the daily timeframe and we have had a convincing break of the long term descdening trendline that has been in play.Now obviously that does mean that we could get a pullback and retest of the trendline before moving higher. Today we have seen a pullback off resistance provided by the 100-day MA.The RSI period-14 has moved beyond the 50 level as well which is a sign of bullish momentum.There is a possibility that the USD could struggle in the early part of the week and retest the trendline ahead of the jobs data print on Friday before making its next decisive move.All in all a key week ahead for the greenback.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, September 26, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After three sessions of correction in US equities, the Dow Jones is attempting a comeback.The move comes in the shadow of what had been a heavily risk-on pre-FOMC environment, where expectations for rate cuts kept fueling a wave of optimism across markets.The Nasdaq even strung together 12 consecutive sessions higher, while the Dow itself had been pressing toward new all-time highs.Still, the mood has shifted: Equity Markets could be getting less optimistic regarding FOMC policy.Even positive GDP data has been largely disregarded, with investors instead focusing on the decreased pricing of cuts further out into 2026 and a labor market that—judging by yesterday’s Jobless Claims beat—remains far from fragile.With Jerome Powell expressing that the labor market would be more at the central picture in his Rhode Island speech on Tuesday, positive data would hence push out rate cuts further.Today's Core PCE release did send out further proof that inflation hikes would be more a temporary boost rather than a long-run change, reassuring the FED.With this backdrop, the question now is whether the Dow’s latest bounce can hold or if major support levels are next in line to be tested.Indeed, prices just reacted to a test of the upward trendline formed from the June lows but still aren't showing the utmost bullish price action.Explore this US 30 multi-timeframe analysis to spot what are the key technicals in play for upcoming trading. Read More:Silver reaches April 2011 levels: Is a new all-time high next?SPX 500: Three-day sell-off reached 20-day moving average, a tipping point for a bullish reversalTokyo Core CPI remains unchanged, US PCE Index ticks higher, yen stabilizesAn overlook on Individual Stocks US Equity heatmap – September 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current session is mixed but gives further momentum to Consumer Defensive and Durables sectors.Dow Jones multi-timeframe analysisDaily Chart Dow Jones Daily Chart , September 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView A 2% correction to the 45,840 lows has been met with some encouraging dip-buying, particularly where the price action currently stands.The 45,800 level is a key to monitor for ongoing price action, particularly as this level holds the Rising Wedge pattern into play.A typically bearish signal due to contracting bullish momentum (with the higher trendline converging), a break lower could be attracting some reversal.4H Chart and levels Dow Jones 4H Chart , September 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The rejection wick from Tuesday trading, notably marking new all-time highs, got met with some follow up profit-taking, taking the action back into the Rising Wedge pattern.Looking at the current course of action, buying flows are still pretty strong as price action managed to breach above the MA 50 again.Nonetheless, bulls will have to at least surpass 46,500 due to its psychological and technical tenure to relaunch a more positive price action.For bears, watch a break below the 46,000 Pivot (+/- 150 points) which would also coincide with a break of the upward trendline.Levels for Dow Jones trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high: 46,7941.618 from April current resistance 46,400 to 46,830High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels46,000 Key Momentum Pivot45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite the best efforts of today’s US GDP report, which upgraded Q2 growth estimates by some margin, US equities trade lower in today’s session and look to set to continue a three-day losing streak.Dow Jones, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500: Key takeaways 25/09/2025 At the time of writing, the Dow Jones stands at $45,911, down 0.67% for the day, while the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are at $24,325 and $6,604, down 0.91% and 0.71%, respectivelyWhile failing equity pricing following hot US GDP numbers seems counterintuitive, markets are interpreting how the economic data showing a stronger-than-expected economy will affect upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve Read the full release: Gross Domestic Product 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate)... U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 25/09/2025 US Equities continue losing streak despite positive GDP revision At face value, the notion that strong economic growth, or at least, stronger than previously expected economic growth, could actually devalue US equities is confusing to say the least.Not only considering today’s release, which revised Q2 growth from 3.3% to 3.8% as part of the final estimate, but also comparing GDP numbers from Q1 to Q2, there is reason to be more optimistic about the US economy than was twenty-four hours ago.So why have US equities sold off across the board?The answer, as ever, is how today’s data affects future monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve.In simple terms, rate cuts are harder to justify when the economy is reportedly strong. Given today’s data, some are asking questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will choose to continue its easing cycle, which started only last week in the form of a 25 basis point cut.While further rate cuts before year-end remain overwhelmingly likely, any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming less likely, or harder to justify, courtesy of strong data, will typically hurt equity pricing, with lower interest rates promoting higher economic growth.In a nutshell, the good news of a strong economy can be considered bad news for equities in the current market cycle, as it questions the notion that lower interest rates are coming, a key catalyst for a continued market rally.The proof is in the metaphorical pudding, of course, and while the dollar has gained today, US equities remain somewhat off the boil as they retrace from previous highs.DJIA (Dow Jones 30): Technical Analysis 25/09/2025 US30USD (Dow Jones Industrial Average), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 While still firmly in bullish territory, price action in today’s session could break the current trendline, suggesting at best some consolidation will need to take place, or at worst, some downside might be possible in the short-termForming throughout Tuesday’s trading, price action on the daily time frame is close to a gravestone doji candle, which has been followed by some textbook downside Likely supportS1: $45,642S2: $45,060Likely resistanceR1: $46,480Nasdaq-100: Technical Analysis 25/09/2025 NAS100USD (Nasdaq-100), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 Boasting the best percentage performance of the three YTD, the Nasdaq-100 has broken the upward trend line in today’s session, suggesting price will need to consolidate or will risk a move to the downsideIn line with Fibonacci, on the daily timeframe, price has further to fall, with $24,035 being the next area of support. Especially regarding US tech, some continue to cast doubt over current valuations, with the collective P/E ratio averages slowly on the rise throughout 2025S&P 500: Technical Analysis 25/09/2025 SPX500USD (S&P 500), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 Telling a similar story to the Nasdaq-100, the most recent S&P 500 uptrend has been broken in today’s session, assuming price closes at or below current valuationsAccording to the ADX on the daily timeframe, the current trend strength is weakening, and trading at levels was last seen in a period of consolidation in mid-August. We can expect some support to be found around $6506 Read more coverage MarketPulse: Swiss National Bank maintains interest rates, US GDP revised higher,Swiss franc slips Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Swiss franc is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8013, up 0.78% on the day.SNB holds rates, warns about US tariffs The Swiss National Bank held its benchmark rate at zero earlier today. The decision was widely expected. The Swiss franc has fallen sharply today but that is more likely due to the surprising strong US GDP release, rather than the SNB rate cut.The SNB statement noted that inflation had remained virtually the same in the second quarter and the inflation outlook called for little change. However, members expressed concern about the slowdown in global economic growth and the uncertainty over US tariffs. The statement said that the Swiss economy had been affected by the US tariffs, dampening the export sector. In particular, the machinery and watchmaking industries had been hit, but the impact on the services sector had been limited.Switzerland has been hit with massive tariffs of 39% on Swiss goods, and the statement warned that the economic outllook for the country remains "uncertain".US GDP surprises on the upside Third-estimate GDP climbed to 3.8% in the second quarter, a strong improvement from the 3.3% gain in the second estimate. This was above the consensus of 3.3%. The gain was driven by stronger consumer spending and a sharp decline in US imports.The tariffs continue to create uncertainty and could dampen consumer spending as the price of imports rise. There are concerns that GDP will fall significantly in the second half of the year.The Federal Reserve signaled at last week's meeting that it planned to cut rates twice more before the end of the year, but today's strong GDP data lowers the pressure on the Fed to ease policy. The markets have priced in an October rate cut at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.7971 and 0.7990. Above, there is support at 0.80220.7939 and 0.7920 are providing support USDCHF 1-Day Chart, September 25, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British Pound has continued its recent malaise against the US Dollar after a stellar rally ahead of the US interest rate decision. Since the decision, Cable has been on a downward trend as the US Dollar has continued to gain traction. At the time of writing, Cable trades at 1.3343 down 0.77% for the day. The US Dollar index meanwhile is up around 0.6% on the day to trade at 98.41 but faces resistance as price has tapped the 100-day MA.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, September 25, 2025 Source: TradingView US Data Boosts the Dollar US Data released today aided the greenback as it showed signs that the US economy is on a good footing. Weekly jobless claims dropped to 218 K which is lower than the 235 K forecast and also below last week’s 232 K. At the same time, the second‑quarter GDP estimate was nudged up to 3.8 % from 3.3 %, which beat most analysts’ estimates.August durable‑goods orders rose roughly 2.9 % after a steep dip in July, while non‑defense orders rose about 1.9 %.The inflation side of the report was a little higher too; core PCE prices ticked up to 2.6 % from 2.5 % in Q2. In some quarters this may raise the question around persistent inflation despite Fed Chair Powell's recent comments.Still many traders hesitate to place big bets before Friday’s August core PCE data, which likely matters a lot for the Fed’s next moves.Fed Messaging Continues to Confuse Looking at the date today, one could argue that criticism of Fed Chair Powell may be misplaced. The Fed Chair has been adamant on waiting for the data or a ‘wait and see approach’. Last week's FOMC meeting saw the Fed cut rates but appeared more hawkish than expected when it comes to 2026 and 2027.This in part could explain the USD rally as the Fed outlook diverges from current market participants expectations.The head of the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve, Jeffrey Schmid, stated on Thursday that current interest rate policy is "slightly restrictive," which he believes is the correct setting.Schmid admitted that inflation is "still too high." However, he noted that the job market is mostly healthy and "in balance." He did warn, though, that new economic reports suggest there are "rising risks" to employment. This highlights the difficult balancing act the Fed faces: keeping prices stable while ensuring strong employment (the Fed’s dual mandate).He concluded that the Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates was necessary to reduce the risk of job losses. He stressed that the Fed is "close to meeting its goals" but must keep looking ahead to future economic conditions.The back and forth between policymakers looks set to continue for now. Differing viewpoints are always encouraged and that is what we are seeing from the Fed now. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD has broken below an ascending trendline and gathered pace since. A potential longer term correction toward the 1.3200 handle cannot be ruled at this stage. The RSI period-14 is trading below 50 suggesting bearish momentum.Immediate support rests at 1.3333 before the 1.3200 handle comes into focus.Looking at a move higher here and the potential for a bounce could bring resistance at 1.3378 and 1.3500 (psychological level) respectively.GBP/USD Daily Chart, September 25, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Client Sentiment - GBP/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on GBP/USD with 59% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that GBP/USD prices could continue to slide in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Volatility is back again after relatively unsurprising sessions since the past week FOMC.It seems that the since last week, the 2025 theme of currency debasing, seeing a huge rally in metals (Gold, Silver at their yearly highs) and equities was intact after the September meeting which resulted in a cut.Stocks had been continuing their way higher, and metals had retracted slightly before surging again to new highs.But risk-assets have been sending alerts since Monday, with Cryptocurrencies – usually early runners for profit-taking–seeing some strong outflows (look at the Total Crypto Market cap which is hanging around its December 2024 highs, 10% lower than its most recent record).Total Crypto Market Cap Total Crypto Market Cap, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Equities are following suit, with a third red open to the session, a very rare sign as of late. It seems that the ever-stronger US data has something to do with these moves.(Monitor ongoing dip-buying, a break towards the daily lows will show a bad sign) US Indices Daily overlook, Source: TradingView – September 25, 2025 Read More:Is the Euro trade still on? Outlook vs USD, CAD and CHFMarkets Today: SNB Leave Rates Unchanged, FTSE Stead. Fed Speakers and US GDP Data AheadUS Dollar strengthening, but an overall confused market — North American mid-week Market update Markets were ecstatic to see gradual cuts in a still-decent US economy, but with the confidence in the FED taking back some advantage due to data-proven decision-making combined with huge beats in GDP, jobless claims and American housing regaining back some edge, cuts are getting priced out sharply and the US Dollar loves it.This is leading to some huge whipsawing flows in the current session. The VIX is coming back to its September highs, metals (particularly Silver and Platinum) were up sharply but giving back their gains, and Cryptos are not having a nice time.VIX 8H Chart – Moving above its 200-MA for the 1st time since May 2025 VIX 8H Chart, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Will the VIX close above or below this key point? A close above may trigger further volatility looking forward. The ongoing move in Cryptos is largely undoing the small dip-buying that was occuring in yesterday's session.A look at the volatile performance from metals today Dollar Index and Metals comparative Performance today, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum, Silver and Gold all-marked new yearly highs in today's session but they're seeing some decent reversals amid the ongoing US Dollar rally.I would suggest looking at this piece released after the FOMC which may underline some of what's going on.Copper is also in the middle of some volatile supply shifts and has its own dynamic.The Usual Suspect: the US Dollar rally Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The USD is bullying its way higher after the wave of positive US data, with Yields rising again (cuts are pricing out) and other majors are not liking it.Keep an eye on these volatile flows – As I am writing this, markets seem to be taking a breather, but animal spirits could be waking up.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 24Today’s session saw a softer tone across equities, with decent profit-taking emerging as Rosh Hashanah (Shana Tovah!) holidays wind down, volumes come back and the Jewish calendar year begins. The pullback comes after a strong week for risk assets, with traders opting to lock in gains before fresh catalysts arrive.In terms of news flow, markets are still digesting the latest speeches from Powell and Trump’s UN appearance. Powell’s balanced remarks reinforced that the Fed is not rushing deeper into dovish territory, while Trump’s address sharpened focus on global energy and trade — with the most recent development being a Gaza proposal that added another layer of geopolitical complexity.The US Dollar extended its rebound, climbing against majors as DXY retraced to early September levels, driven by safe-haven flows and firm labor data. WTI was also one of the key outperformer amid Europe’s move to further diverge from Russian oil, while Trump’s comments accusing buyers of “funding the war against themselves” underscored the shifting energy dynamics.On geopolitics, Ukraine headlines remained in focus with Zelenskiy praising renewed US support and Trump stressing that “Ukraine is in position to fight, win, and take all of Ukraine back.” Read More:Europe moves to diverge from Russian oil – WTI outlookCryptos regain some momentum dragged higher by a strong BitcoinUS Dollar strengthening, but an overall confused market — North American mid-week Market updateCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The only big market movers from today's session have been energy commodities, particularly Oil coming back from another downfall.For the rest, there is an interesting move happening in Cryptocurrencies corroborating with the profit-taking happening over there (Look at ETH).Keep an eye on risk-sentiment and the profit-taking from the previous session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 24 – Source: OANDA Labs Charts and a switch of dynamics seem to put the greenback back to the table – After such selling flows the previous weeks, it seems that it's not going to be as straightforward, but overall, currency markets seem to be offering some interesting views.US Dollar up, Euro currencies holding strong overall – Market tides seem to be looking for some change.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Get ready for an army of Central bank speakers, particularly for the FED with Goolsbee, Williams, Schmid, Bowman, Barr and Daly – Get ready for some market moving information now that upcoming FED meetings are live (and priced in for gradual cuts). Safe Trades and Shana Tovah!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have been dawdling around as of late but subject to a decent bull session.Amid a lack of any crazy headlines, a continuously progressing regulatory picture for digital assets and consistent ETF inflows keep boosting prospects for the Market. Crypto market overview, September 24, 2025 – Source: Finviz A + $1,000 day for Bitcoin has sufficed to wake up animal spirits from Crypto aficionados as nothing seems to stop the ongoing everything-rally.Despites equities correcting slightly from their intermediate highs, they keep holding close to their All-time highs which maintains an overall risk-on tone for market flows, always a positive for cryptos.Altcoins such as NEAR, DOGE and AVAX have seen some more than decent performances in the past few bull days, taking these popular altcoin names close to their cycle highs.We will look at some key charts in today's Crypto market outlook, including BTC, Solana, and Dogecoin to spot if any of these main coins have enough traction to relaunch an even-more bullish trend (compared to the current rangebound conditions). Read More:Europe moves to diverge from Russian oil – WTI outlookNasdaq 100: Short-term bullish trend remains intact above 24,535 key supportGold Rally Driven by Massive ETF InflowsA look at the Crypto Total Market Cap Total Crypto Market Cap, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since our weekly open Crypto piece, the correction in Market Cap has slowed down quite suddenly.Nonetheless, the one thing to keep an eye on is if profit-taking exceeds the 2024 $3.84T record which may trigger more algorithmic selling, or if participants actually gather enough strength to push the market cap back above $4T.Dogecoin (DOGE) 8H Chart DOGE 8H Chart, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Our most recent Dogecoin analysis saw a consequent very strong rally to test the higher 0.31 to 0.33 resistance level (prices came very shy to it).However, an overall less-positive crypto market mood has corrected the rlly back towards the main upward trendline. In today's session, bulls are coming back to potentially break the corrective smaller timeframe for an even higher-trend.Let's see if the mood gets back on its feet for a further push above the recent $0.30661 intermediate highs – Keep an eye on the 50-period MA located at $0.26.Levels of interest for DOGE trading:Support Levels:Longer-run Pivot $0.20Key Support 0.14 to 0.16$0.10 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:$0.26 immediate resistance at the MA 50Downward pivotal resistance 0.28$0.30661 Sep 13 highsKey hurdle for renewed Bull domination $0.31 to 0.330.40 Psychological resistanceAll-time highs $0.81Solana (SOL) 8H Chart SOL 8H Chart, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana has been through some very volatile swings in the past few days of trading – Lower volumes throughout the Rosh Hashanah holidays have subjected more volatile movement throughout markets as less participants can absorb the higher supply.Having rejected the key $255 Resistance ($253 highs), Buyers will have to hold the recently rejected $200 support which will hold a more bearish price action.Have re-entered the upward channel, the overall trajectory is now less bullish but still comes far from bearish.Check out reactions at the immediate oversold RSI to see if dip-buyers step in.A failure to do so may attract further profit taking, therefore keep an eye on the overall market (and market cap).Levels to place on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Support Zone $200 to $205 (immediately testing)$185 momentum pivot and recent swing lows$160 Major support and low of channelResistance Levels:Resistance turned Pivot level 218 to 220$225 to $231 upper bound of channel (and MA 50)January Pivot/Resistance $250 to $260 (freshly rejected)Current all-time high $295Bitcoin 8H Chart BTC 8H Chart, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin actually has formed one of the most optimistic price action after weeks of progressive correction.After a recent test of the $110,000 to $112,000 Major support, buyers are stepping in.With a less bullish price action in the past few weeks, it is positive for the market to see the crypto-pioneer forming an intermediate bottom at the lows of its longer-run upward channel.A Daily close above $113,500 could attract further momentum for the week, and a weekly close above the $115,000 to $117,000 Pivot would see even more chances of retesting/breaking the recent all-time highs.Levels to place on your BTC Charts:Support Levels:$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone (freshly tested)$111,060 recent lows$106,000 to $108,000 key support$100,000 main support at the psychological levelResistance Levels:Current all-time high $124,596Major resistance $122,000 to $124,500$113,500 MA 50 and 200$115,000 to $117,000 key pivot$126,500 to $128,000 Fib-extension potential resistance (1.382% from April to May up-move)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Alibaba Inspires Recovery Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysAsian stocks recovered some of their losses after Chinese technology companies saw a boost. This was sparked by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which announced its plan to increase investments in artificial intelligence (AI). Source: LSEG Chinese semiconductor stocks also joined the rally. This was a result of two key developments: Morgan Stanley upgraded its outlook on the sector, and Huawei Technologies Co. revealed its plans to compete with and eventually surpass Nvidia Corp. in the AI chip market.In Hong Kong, where trading was slow due to a major typhoon, Alibaba's shares surged by as much as 7.2%, reaching their highest level in nearly four years. The company's CEO, Eddie Wu, stated that he believes global investment in AI is accelerating rapidly and that Alibaba needs to keep up. He added that the company plans to increase its spending on AI infrastructure beyond its previous commitment of over 380 billion yuan (about $53 billion) over three years.Overall, the MSCI gauge of Asian shares was down by only 0.1%, an improvement from its earlier, lower position. There was no cash trading of U.S. government bonds because Tokyo was closed for a public holiday.Japan PMI Shrinks Most in the Last 6 Months According to preliminary data, Japan's manufacturing sector continued to shrink in September, with the S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.4. This was a worse-than-expected result, as analysts had predicted a reading of 50.2.A score below 50 indicates that a sector is contracting, and this marks the 14th time in the last 15 months that Japanese factory activity has shrunk. This recent decline was the sharpest since March, with the rate of new orders and overall production falling at the fastest pace in months. Some companies reported that their clients were being cautious with their inventory due to difficult market conditions, which contributed to the drop in new orders. Foreign sales also continued to fall.On the cost side, expenses for manufacturers increased due to higher prices for labor, raw materials, and fuel. As a result, companies continued to raise their own prices. Looking forward, the mood among businesses has weakened.European Open - Defence Stocks Attempt to Limit Downside On Wednesday, European stock markets fell, following a decline on Wall Street. Financial and bank stocks were the main drivers of the losses, although gains in some defense-related stocks helped to limit the overall drop.The main pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.5%, and most regional markets also ticked lower, with the Italian stock market experiencing the largest decline.Major banks saw their shares fall by 0.9%, with well-known banks like Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Societe Generale, and Sydbank all dropping by more than 1% each. The financial services sub-index also dipped by 1.1%.However, an index that tracks defense stocks gained 0.8%. This was a reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump's comment that he believes Ukraine can retake all of its land occupied by Russia and that Kyiv should act now.On the FX front, the US dollar slightly recovered on Wednesday from its lowest level in nearly a week. This shift came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a cautious speech about the possibility of more interest rate cuts. Despite his remarks, traders are still betting that the Fed will cut rates two more times this year.The US dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against six other major currencies, rose by 0.1%. This move helped the dollar regain some ground after it had dropped for two straight days, hitting its lowest point since last Thursday.In Australia, the dollar strengthened after new data showed that consumer inflation was higher than expected. This release comes less than a week before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to make its next policy decision.Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar remained stable following the appointment of a new head for its central bank.The euro and the British pound both lost 0.1% against the dollar. The Australian dollar, however, gained 0.3% and reversed its earlier losses. This was a direct result of the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3% in August compared to a year ago, which was an increase from July's 2.8% and slightly above the forecasted 2.9%.Read More: AUD/USD: Bullish reversal towards 0.6700 major resistance as Australia's monthly CPI rose to a 13-month highCurrency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs In oil markets, the price of Brent crude oil rose slightly to $67.71 per barrel. This gain came after a deal to resume oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region stalled, which calmed some investor fears that the new supply would add to a global oversupply problem.Meanwhile, gold's price was also up slightly, continuing its momentum after hitting a record high on Tuesday. The price of spot gold was last at $3,773.36 per ounce.Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will bring German IFO and Swiss Zew data before markets eye the US session.The US session is also scheduled to be a quiet one with Fed policymakers speaking a highlight. Beyond this, developments around Russia/Ukraine and a meeting between Iranian and European leaders around the snapback mechanism could stoke volatility. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE/UK100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 is eyeing a break below the 200-day MA which could lead to further downside.This of course is not given after a most recent candle close below the 200-day MA was followed by a bullish rally to the upside.Support also rests just below the current price at 9180 before the9155 and 9100 handles come into focus.Looking at the upside, there is now a key confluence area around the 9218-9234 range. A break above this will face resistance at 9280, which is yesterday's swing high.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 24. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The minor corrective pull-back of -2% seen in the AUD/USD ex-post FOMC from 17 September 2025 high of 0.6707 to 22 September 2025 low of 0.6575 has reached an inflection point to kick-start a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence. Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) In today’s Asia session, the Australian dollar outperformed all major peers against the greenback. On a 1-day rolling basis as of 24 September 2025, the US dollar slipped -0.4% versus the AUD, outpacing the modest -0.1% intraday decline in the US Dollar Index (see Fig. 1).The AUD’s intraday strength was underpinned by Australia’s latest CPI report, which showed August inflation accelerating to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in July, beating expectations of 2.9%. This marks the highest reading since July 2024, a 13-month high.Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis factors of the AUD/USD to decipher its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key levels to watch. Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 0.6655 before a retest on the major resistance of 0.6680/0.6700 (see Fig. 2).Key elements The major resistance of the AUD/USD stands at 0.6700, which is defined by the upper boundary of the multi-month “Expanding Wedge” range configuration in place since 24 April 2025 (see Fig. 3).The 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the rising 20-day moving average that managed to stall the prior three days of decline in the AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has staged a bullish momentum breakout from its former descending resistance (see Fig 2).The yield spread between Australia’s 2-year sovereign bond and its US Treasury counterpart narrowed from -0.21% on 23 September 2025 to -0.10% at the time of writing. This contraction in the US yield premium has added support to bullish momentum in AUD/USD (see Fig 2).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 0.6580 key short-term support negates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to expose the 0.6555 medium-term pivotal support. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices reached a new record high on Tuesday, helped by growing expectations of more US interest rate cuts. Investors were also waiting for a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to get more hints about future policy.The price of spot gold went up 1% to $3,784.01 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $3,790.82 earlier in the day.This optimism was partly due to new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who called for aggressive rate cuts on Monday. He argued that the Fed's current policy is too strict and could put jobs at risk. However, his view was challenged by three of his colleagues, who believe the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.Miran's pro-rate cut stance increases the chances of more cuts, which is a positive sign for gold. The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors believe there's a high chance of two more rate cuts of 0.25% each, one in October (90% chance) and another in December (73% chance).The thing with Gold at the moment is how much longer can the rally possibly go? Now many investment banks and analysts have had to continuously update their price target this year. The problem is there is no historical data to look toward which could give us a sign of where the rally might end.I have been looking over the past few weeks and have now found some interesting takeaways when looking at past bull rallies which mirror the current cycle.Let us take a look.Gold Bull Rallies From a Historical Context - 1970s, 2000s Looking back at two periods historically paint an interesting picture. The first chart below looks at the period between September 1, 1976 to January 1, 1980 where Gold prices went on a parabolic rise from a low of $104/oz to a high of $875/oz. This equates to a gain of around 738.93% over a period of 1217 days (approximately 3 years and 4 months to complete this move).Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView This was followed by a multi-year retracement where Gold prices struggled throughout the 1980 and 1990s.The next historic bull rally started around September 1, 1999 (note the rally started again in September. Coincidence?) until September 1 2011. This period saw Gold prices benefit from the Global Financial crisis as well.The rally took Gold prices from $253/oz to a high of $1920/oz which is around a 657.47% increase. The major difference between this rally and the one in the 1970s is the timeframe. This particular rally took a total of 4383 days which equates to around 12 years.Take a look at the chart example below.Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView Now looking at the current rally in Gold prices, and i am using the bottom in price from around January 4, 2016 when price hit a low of $1061/ozSince then, Gold has been on a rally with gains totaling 257% over a period of 3529 days (just shy of 10 years) to reach a high of $3791/oz today.Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView This is quite an impressive rally to say the least. However, it remains some way of the other two rallies historically, so are we looking at a more protracted bull run for Gold?Firstly comparing historical price moves is something I am a firm believer in. There is of course no guarantee that a similar story will always play out as the past and that also stems from the factors which are affecting prices.For example in the 1970s, the rally began a few short years after the end of the Bretton Woods system. While the rally in the 2000s was fueled by the global financial crisis, post 2008.The current rally has been fueled by a combination of many things and one of the reasons why I could see further upside materializing in the current rally. We have strong central bank buying, geopolitical risk, recessionary fears and a potential multi-year Fed easing cycle all forming a perfect cocktail for Gold prices to push on higher.Now short-term corrections and pullbacks could materialize before Gold moves higher but for this we will have to monitor the lower timeframes for any possible signs.Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.I will personally be focusing on the whole numbers ahead of $3800, $3825, $3850 etc.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 23, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As I sit down to pen this article, I’m met with a feeling of déjà vu.The difference is that I have actually been here before, many times in the last few months, in fact, with silver seemingly hitting new highs every time I check my charts.Naturally, this time is no different, with silver rocketing to new highs in yesterday’s trading, while handsomely outperforming its yellow counterpart, gold, in the last seven days.As is almost tradition by now, let’s discuss some of the fundamentals responsible for the recent moves in precious metal pricing. Read previous coverage:Silver Price: XAG/USD poised to extend gains further, support likely at $40.60Silver XAG/USD poised for further upside, having cooled from multi-year highs Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView,23/09/2025 Dust settles on dovish Fed, boosting silver prices Let’s start by establishing a fundamental economic concept: in a total vacuum, lower interest rates benefit non-yielding assets like silver, since the opportunity cost for holding precious metals compared to cash is reduced.So, why did the recent Federal Reserve rate cut hurt silver pricing?The devil is, of course, in the details.Naturally, nothing in the market is black and white; in this case, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the cut as a ‘risk-management’ cut rather than a response to a weakening economy.This would be a much more hawkish stance than previously thought, which, at least at first, would seriously temper expectations that this would mark the first cut of a deep-cutting cycle.Considering the predicted trajectory of Fed interest rates before this, generally pegged at two further cuts before year-end, even the slightest suggestion that rates could be kept higher not only weakened demand for precious metals, but also simultaneously strengthened the dollar.What’s happened since then, however, is a textbook example of reaction versus response. Silver (XAG/USD) & DXY, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 23/09/2025 Having had time to digest, it would seem that the market uncertainty has all but dissipated, with the recent rally in silver pricing a shining example.While Powell’s recent ‘risk-management’ comments can’t be ignored, against the backdrop of recent US labour and GDP data, the numbers otherwise point to further rate cuts, assuming inflation remains under control.While it would be fair to say that the financial markets’ collective hive mind is not always known for robust decision-making in light of shock economic news, the dust has now settled, with the narrative around Fed monetary policy returning essentially to the dovish angle held ahead of the recent decision. CME FedWatch, OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 This goes double when considering dissent from FOMC member Stephen Miran, who voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut in the most recent decision, showing some support for further rate cuts already exists amongst decision-makers.Strong fundamentals bolster silver prices At risk of repeating myself from previous coverage, here’s a quick-fire round on the macro themes responsible for the current rally: Questions remain on sovereign debt, especially in United States, with the recent downgrade in credit rating fresh in the collective memory. Similar to 2011, uncertainty on the long-term solvency of major world economies, especially with no shortage of radical US policy changes, directly benefits silver pricingSilver demand continues to outstrip supply, which in and of itself is a relatively new phenomenon. Used both as a store of value and across industry alike, the recent classification of silver as a ‘critical mineral’ by the US Government further cements its use case on a significant scale. In line with the most basic principles of economic theory, if demand cannot be met by supply, prices rise, as seen particularly of recentUsually lumped under the moniker of ‘safe-haven flows’, precious metals like silver are often used as a reliable store of value in times of economic uncertainty. In 2025, there has been no shortage in demand for safe-haven assets, with increased geopolitical tensions, questions on sovereign debt, and, of course, US trade tariffs, all making valuable contributionsLess so a macroeconomic factor, more so a consequence of the above, a weakening dollar has helped extend the current rally in precious metal pricing, since precious metals are typically priced in USD. So far, 2025 remains on record as one of the U.S. dollar’s worst-performing years in some time, helping boost silver prices In a nutshell, and owing to the rock-solid fundamentals, markets have clearly shown their preference for higher silver pricing this year, with current prices on pace for their best percentage performance since 2010.Since late August, it would appear that markets are ready to metaphorically bite the hand off any opportunity to push precious metals higher, with no obvious signs of slowing down any time soon.Silver XAG/USD: Technical Analysis 23/09/2025 Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 Renewing multi-year highs recently, XAG/USD currently trades toward the upper boundary of the upwards channel. Price may need to retrace lower before an attempt higher, with bulls likely to target $45 first, then onto $45.69According to the ADX, current trend strength is at its highest level since June 2024, suggesting conviction in market direction. For the contrarians, shorts should be approached with extreme caution Read more from MarketPulse: Nikkei 225: Bullish reversal above 45,000, no negative impact from BoJ’s ETF unwind Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and timely update of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Bullish trend remains intact despite Japan’s PM resignation”, published on 8 September 2025.The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has continued to remain in a bullish trend as expected and rallied by 5.3% to hit a fresh all-time high of 45,956 on last Thursday, 18 September 2025, ex-post FOMC. Thereafter, the Japan 225 CFD Index staged a minor corrective pull-back of -3.2% to print an intraday low of 44,485 on Friday, 19 September 2025, on the onset of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcement to start unwinding its massive hoard of around 79.5 trillion yen of exchange-traded funds (ETF) by market value as of mid-September tied to Japan benchmark stock indices.BoJ aims to sell its ETF holdings at a pace of around ¥620 billion per year by market value, or ¥330 billion by book value, starting in 2026. It will be a gradual unwinding process that may take more than 100 years to complete under the current plan. Additionally, it marks the first time the BoJ has laid out a plan for offloading the assets it has accumulated over years of ultra-easy monetary policy.Let’s now examine a fundamental factor that still supports a medium-term bullish trend in the Nikkei 225.Earnings revision continues to get upgraded for Japanese equities Fig. 1: Japan & US Citigroup Earnings Revision Index as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Sell-side analysts have continued to upgrade the earnings growth potential of the Japanese stock market. Based on the latest data from the Citigroup Earnings Revision Index for Japanese equities as of 19 September 2025, it rose to 0.34 from the previous reading of 0.19 on 29 August 2025 (see Fig. 1).The Japan Citigroup Earnings Revision Index has been trending upwards since 20 June 2025, printing -0.35, which suggests that analysts, on average, are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings in Japan, in turn supporting the ongoing medium-term bullish trend in the Nikkei 225.In addition, the pace of analysts’ earnings upgrades in Japan rose at a steeper pace since 29 August 2025, versus the US Citigroup Earnings Revision Index.We now focus on the short-term (1to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the Japan 225 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 23 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain the bullish bias on the Japan 225 CFD Index with a tightened short-term pivotal support now at 45,000. A clearance above 45,960 increases the odds of bullish impetus for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 46,430/46,580 and 46,870 (Fibonacci extension cluster and towards the upper boundary of a steeper minor ascending channel from the 2 September 2025 low) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index have continued to oscillate above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which suggests that its minor and medium-term uptrend phases remain intact.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Japan 225 CFD Index has exhibited a bullish momentum condition as it managed to trend higher above an ascending support and has not reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 45,000 key short-term support for the Japan 225 CFD Index invalidates the bullish acceleration scenario to kickstart a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 44,560 and 44,050. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBPJPY is one of the most volatile FX pair available to trade including only major currencies – Yet, it's been stuck in a huge range since August 2024.As explained in our previous article on this currency pair, a continuous uptrend from 2020 lows (127.30!) to July 2024 highs (208.12) has been met with a sharp correction as carry trades saw a consequent slowdown amid a sudden market-breakdown which suddenly saw yen rebuying speed up.At the same time, equities saw a huge correction, which got followed with the usual dip-buying.Anyways, this time, a consistent shorter-range uptrend has built up momentum from April lows (184.50) to the higher bound of the year-long consolidation.With buyers stepping in after a August retracement, a consequent bull-sequence took the pair to a wick at new yearly highs (201.27).Let's have a look at multi-timeframe charts to spot levels of interest and see if the most recent rejection below 200.00 can hold further or a breakout is due. Read More: Binance Coin (BNB) breaks $1,000 despite a crypto pullback – Crypto outlookGold (XAU/USD): Short-term bullish acceleration intact towards new all-time highs above US$3,660 key supportRBA's Bullock says inflation under control, Aussie steadyGBPJPY multi-timeframe analysisGBPJPY daily timeframe GBPJPY Daily Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets have built towards higher levels in the pair throughout the past 5 months as weak fundamentals haven't helped the Yen to find consequent buying.However, some hawkishness as been denoted in last week's Bank of Japan meeting and as the Bank of England just cut its rate to 4% at its last meeting, rates between Japan and the UK are still expected to converge through time.The rest is for markets to spot when the BoJ will actually hike which should provide a further boost to the yen – a sign for sellers to step in further. But markets react to such noise initially before being more patient and waiting for the actual news to drop – There is a bit less of a hike priced in the Japanese short-end curve for the rest of the year. But increased hawkish talk may assist the selling in the pair and needs to be tracked closely, particularly after the most recent failed bullish-breakout.GBPJPY 4H chart and levels GBPJPY 4H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView As can be observed on this 4H chart, the V-shaped return to the 199.00 to 200.00 resistance has built a consolidation level just above the 200-period MA which now serves as immediate momentum level for future action.A break below should accelerate selling towards the April trendline, and further downside could be expected below (towards a retest of the August 5th lows).A failure to break the low of the resistance should amplify the consolidation further – Keep a close eye on the 4H 200-period MA.Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:Support Levels:Low of 199.00 to 200.00 resistance (198.70)Intermediate Range Resistance Zone turned pivot near 195.00 to 196.85Higher timeframe Main Pivot point 193.00Range Intermediate Support Zone around the 190.00 levelResistance Levels:Resistance Zone extremes 199.00 to 200.00201.27 Bank of England and pre-Bank of Japan highs208.120 July 2024 highs GBPJPY 1H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls and bears are battling within the resistance of the range.The 50-hour Moving average may act as immediate resistance but will only see confirmation if momentum breaches the pivot zone.Not closing below the pivot on the daily would imply further consolidation within the range.Safe Trades and Shana Tovah for those who celebrate!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities keep up their positive performance with each of them finishing at or close to their highs, with the Tech-heavy Nasdaq taking the lead yet again.With the most recent Federal Reserve cut and positive acquisition news as seen in yesterday's US Index piece, sentiment is at its highs again.Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have yet to break their yesterday highs and it will be interesting to see if they manage to do so towards the daily close or next week.In addition to the PBoC (China's Central Bank) which releases its own rate decision (major support to the economy is expected, traditionally positive for equities), Markets will assist to many FED Members' speeches as the Blackout period is now over, and it will be very interesting to see what they have to offer.Miran is officially the most dovish member with FED Governors Waller and Bowman conceding their seat – Have a look at the busy Sunday to Monday speaker calendar(Check out more on what's to come with our Week Ahead piece, coming up very soon). Central bank speakers on Monday, Marketpulse Economic Calendar. Markets might be overlooking the more balanced-approach from Powell to the future rate cut outlook, as every-optimistic mood keeps pushing equities higher.The Dot Plot did signal some extra 50 bps of easing throughout the end of the year, but the cut wasn't such a dovish one when looking at the details of what Powell said – For now, the US Dollar is the one coming back higher from the decision.You can discover more on this right here. Daily US Equity Heatmap – September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is not as impressive as yesterday, but Bulls will always enjoy strong performance from names such as Apple, Oracle and Tesla.A Daily outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones before taking a closer look Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:GBP outlook as GBP/USD gets rejected from pre-FOMC highsPost-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollar Let's take a look at intraday charts and levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US Indices All three indices are in a seemingly unstoppable move since the beginning of September. Let's try to look at the extent of the moves and potential levels of interest for each index as price discovery continues.S&P 500 4H chart and levels S&P 500 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch the middle of the upward channel that will need to be broken to the upside to maintain a more bullish intermediate outlook!Similar as the Dow Jones, the price action looks a bit hesitant at the highs despite a very decent week.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 6,669 (new ATH)Higher timeframe potential resistance between 6,650 and 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows, currently testing)6,700 psychological levelSupport LevelsFOMC lows 6,562 and MA 506,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 2H chart and levels Nasdaq 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is actually the only index printing fresh all-time highs today, however the action seems a bit hesitant.A momentum divergence might be showing up on the 2H RSI but looking at the past close, confirmation candles would be required to confirm any action.For now, the mood in tech is positive – Let's see what players do towards the weekly close and next week's open.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent daily highs (24,626)Daily Resistance (from August 20 lows) 24,550 to 24,626 (immediate resistance)Potential Resistance 2 fib-Extension (from August lows) 24,800Support LevelsFib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350Previous ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones 4H chart and levels Dow Jones 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Price action is still very hesitant to break the upward trendline of the Ascending wedge, and stays one of the biggest limitation to the US index.Watch momentum as the session moves forward.Levels for Dow Jones trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high and Rising wedge breakout: 46,4251.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The currency market had been dormant for a while, but this is now a theme of the past yet again.Throughout August, a first move higher from the Pound got met with a subsequent consolidation until the beginning of this month .GBP/USD peaked just above 1.37 on Wednesday’s announcement, but that rally didn’t stick — the pair now trades roughly 1.70% lower as the dollar staged a fierce comeback.What flipped the script was a rapid unwind of pre-FOMC downbeat USD bets: Powell’s more balanced tone and a re-credibilized Federal Reserve re-anchored the dollar (the latter could still be a bearish theme for the USD in the future). Recent exchanges between US President Trump and UK PM Keir Starmer have marked a strengthening of collaboration between the two countries that are on their own separating paths from their neighbors, and it would make sense for the two countries to get closer, looking forward.In terms of data, with UK inflation still uncomfortably high (3.8% headline as the Bank of England targets 2%) and Governor Bailey still mentioning cuts on the table (more for 2026), Markets got a perfect setup for a rejection at those pre-FOMC highs. The question now is whether this pullback is the start of a larger correction, and if this breakdown will also spread to other European currencies in the continuation of FX geographic trends. Let’s break down the multi-timeframe levels for GBPUSD and where to look next. Read More: Post-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookWhere to Next, EUR/USD? Policy gap between ECB and FedCaution Over Speed: How the Fed Framed Its First CutGBPUSD Daily Chart GBPUSD Daily Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at the higher timeframe, we spot that since reaching its 2025 highs in June, the pair really hasn't moved in a trend, which makes sense when looking at the immense movements in the first half of the year.The two past candles are sending scary sights, but the 50-Day Moving Average (1.34650) may act as an intermediate bumper to slow the ongoing selling. Breaching it and closing below offers a door for lower movement. On the other hand, failing to breach the key MA could lead to further consolidation.Let's take a closer look for intra-day trading levels.GBPUSD 8H Chart and levels GBPUSD 8H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Shorter timeframes offer another view of how steep the descent is. With momentum getting closer to oversold, it will be interesting to see how participants move the major pair, and with the week coming to an end, it will surely be an answer for next week.However, things to look for trading are: A continuation or lack thereof of the Dollar Index (check out our morning piece!) , a close below the 1.3450 (August range lows) to 1.35650 level and upcoming data (US GDP data and many Central bank speeches next week)Levels to watch for the GBPUSD:Resistance Levels1.35 psychological levelResistance at the 1.36 zoneResistance 1.37 Zonepre-FOMC Highs 1.37288Key Pivot Zone: 1.3450 to 1.3650Support Levels1.34 Psychological levelSupport 1.3260-1.33Support 1.3170 - 1.31850GBPUSD 1H Chart GBPUSD 1H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, momentum starts to curb around the lows of the week which signals that oversold conditions might be kicking in.Such preceding movement may impede a strong pullback, and consolidation may have the higher chance of allowing price action to then continue – Future data will then tell if the movement is more to an upside reversal or a downside continuation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.