Market Insights Podcast (11/02/2026): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart digest the latest US NFP numbers, released unusually on a Wednesday. Otherwise, we discuss the latest on FX, especially regarding the US dollar and Japanese yen, as well as world equities and crypto. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks give up their early gains as traders price out cuts after the strong Non-Farm Payrolls reportMarkets face yet another test of their recent highs, with the Dow Jones retesting the 50,000 handleExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Recent Non-Farm Payrolls have been tricky to trade, with the picture in the US labor market confirming a strengthening trend in the latest report this morning.The tricky part, however, is that last week's Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, and ADP reports all corroborated a contradictory (weakening) view, which generally sends conflicting signals to the latest rounds of BLS data.Since firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August, reports haven't looked weak; they've just been subject to significant revisions. And despite the -858K downward revisions to last year's data, as revealed this morning, Participants are now focusing on the hawkish impact of the Unemployment Rate (UE) easing back to 4.3%. The UE Rate will now be at the forefront of what traders are watching to assess the state of the US Jobs market.With the final piece of the US data puzzle, the CPI report (8:30 A.M.), which will be revealed this Friday, pricing for upcoming Fed Meetings will have significant potential for changes. zoom_out_map Market-Implied Fed Funds rate change – Source: FedWatch Tool. February 11, 2026. As a matter of fact, the June meeting odds went from close to 100% before the data to around 60% afterward. The March meeting progressively corrected from 22% to only 9%, with the Yield curve bear flattening (indicating lower odds of imminent cuts).Quite a turnaround, which won't please Stock Markets, following a swift rebound from the past week's tumbles.Pre-open futures trading was strong after the NFP release, but quickly turned around shortly after the Bell. Now back to unchanged on the session, Indexes are sending confusing signals to traders, but remain at key intersections that will be essential to monitor ahead of upcoming trading.Defensive stocks remain of relative interest against Tech stocks in the daily heatmap, pulling flows towards Producer Manufacturing, Farming, and Energy stocks on top yet again. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 11, 2026 Dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.Note: Iran developments remain one of the largest tail risk for volatility, hence as participants turn their attention away, keep a close eye on any breaking news. Read More:NFP surprises to the upside – Market ReactionsUSD/JPY Outlook: Momentum bearish, but can the US dollar find support on strong jobs data?Markets Today: Markets digest Chinese inflation, AI fears continue, Gold holds high ground as NFP loomsDow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is showing weakening signs after this morning's fakeout higher.Despite the rebound in the past hour and remaining above 50,000 (High-importance level), the selloff brought the action back below this session's pivotal resistance (50,250).Now showing an imminent break-retest price action, an interesting selling setup could make sense, particularly after the hawkish repricing which could be weighing on Stocks until Friday's CPI.In the event of a selloff, look for reactions at the 49,500 pivotal support. Any break below will take the Index back to its 48,000 to 50,000 range.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Resistance 50,250 (rejecting)Potential minor resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support Levels49,900 to 50,000 Bull/bear Momentum PivotJanuary ATH Resistance now Pivotal Support 49,500 to 49,700Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is also sending worrying signs ahead by failing to breach its Key 25,500 Resistance, with sellers leaning on the 2H 200-MA.Traders will need to watch closely to the 25,000 Psychological level. Moving back below confirms a more bearish price action ahead of CPI.Bouncing on the level however hints at a 25,000 to 25,500 tight consolidation.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (2H 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 Key test (50 MA at 25,090 watch if breakj)24,500 to 25,600 Key SupportFebruary 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite bouncing on its 50 and 200-Moving averages, the price action is showing meaningful rejection of the 7,000 key figure.The key MAs will act as final support for the bull case towards new all-time highs. Any breach of the 6,916 session lows should see continuation towards a retest of the 6,800 range support.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (Rejecting)Session top 6,996Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support Levels6,920 Session lows and 2H MA 50/200 (key barometer)Pivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bullish momentum reinforced by politics: The Nikkei 225 extended its rally from the 6 February reversal low, supported by PM Takaichi’s snap election victory and a decisive parliamentary supermajority, making it the top-performing major global index over the past two sessions (+2.3%).Stronger yen not derailing equities: Despite USD/JPY falling on intervention fears, Japanese equities held firm. Domestically focused stocks are outperforming exporters, suggesting a stronger JPY is boosting consumer confidence and supporting internal demand.Acceleration phase intact toward 60,000: Technically, the short-term uptrend remains valid above 56,990 support, with upside targets at 58,932, 59,884, and 60,833–61,215. Momentum indicators continue to support further gains unless key support breaks. The Nikkei 225 has continued to bask in the bullish limelight since last Friday, 6 February 2026’s minor bullish reversal low of 52,956, reinforced by the results of Japan’s lower house parliament snap election held on Sunday, 8 February 2026.Incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party has managed to score a stunning victory in the snap election, surpassing the two-thirds majority of 310 seats, with Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party winning 316 seats in the 465-seat lower house.Nikkei 225 is the top performer among global stock markets over the past two days zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Global stock market indices with USD/JPY from 9 Feb to 10 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Since the start of the week till Tuesday, 10 February 2026, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the top-performing major global stock with a positive return of 2.3%, surpassing the major US stock indices; Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), S&P 500 (-0.3%), Russell 2000 (-0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (-0.6%) (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the renewed strength in the Japanese yen, where the USD/JPY shed -1% in the past two sessions due to fears of US-Japan joint intervention, is not having a negative feedback loop impact on the Nikkei 225.Japan’s equities with high domestic exposure are outperforming exporters zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Relative performance of Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure against Global Exposure as of 10 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) A stronger JPY is likely to negate the current higher cost-of-living squeeze in Japan, in turn, further boosting consumer confidence, which leads to an increase in domestic spending.Within the Nikkei 225, stocks with a higher reliance on domestic Japanese sales are outperforming export-heavy names, particularly technology equipment and automobile manufacturers with greater overseas exposure.Since 4 February 2026, the Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure 50 Index (domestic sales) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 Global Exposure 50 Index (international sales), where its ratio increased to 0.76 on Tuesday, 10 February 2026, and broke above a 5-month descending resistance (see Fig. 2).Hence, this counterintuitive observation suggests that a stronger Japanese yen is likely to be playing a supportive role at this juncture to maintain the bullish trend in the Japanese stock market (Nikkei 225).Let's now look at the technical chart of Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) to decipher its short-term trajectory and key levels to watch.Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor bullish acceleration intact since 6 February zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 11 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 56,990 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD index for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 58,932, 59,884, and 60.833/61,215 (Fibonacci extensions clusters).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 56,990 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 56,096, and below it risks a deeper slide to retest 55,111/54,790 (the former range resistance from 14 January to 4 February 2026).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The hourly RSI momentum indicator has so far managed to hold at its intermediate support at around the 50 level after it exited from its overbought region on Tuesday, 10 February 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 10 Today's session was, as expected ahead of tomorrow's quintessential Non-Farm Payrolls release, a relative snoozer.As warned in our previous session's Wrap, it would have been surprising to see continuous flows ahead of what could be the most important Labor release since August 2025.A few warning signs had been sent by the private and weekly jobs data received throughout last week, and traders surely reduced their short-term long and short positioning to the minimum when looking at today's low-volatility session.Ranges for tomorrow's release are huge, but except for a -10K extreme, analysts and banks found a consensus for a below 100K release (official consensus at 70K).Looking at Banks predictions doesn't infer too much. However, it allows to form tail-risk scenarios.If the actual answer is below 10K, except swift repricing across assets and rate cut pricings.Any beat above 140K would surely drop all pricings for cuts in a sweep.Equities did not maintain their broad gains, confirming the thesis of short-covering ahead of the data. The Dow Jones remains above 50,000, sending signs of confidence for the data, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 gave up a small part of their gains.Metals have also remained in a range, well above their past week lows but also failing to provide a clear momentum higher. Tomorrow's session close will be very important for the next phase. Read More:Rout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesTech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) tests $80 ahead of NFP – What's next?Altcoins struggle to bounce – ETH, XRP and SOL Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 10, 2026 The daily heatmap shouts slow-grinds and profit-takings ahead of NFP. Nothing much to see here.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView A very muted profit-taking session around asset classes – Only US Treasuries showed some interest with them rising again in today's session after the much softer retail sales.The key test will be tomorrow.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 10, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Japanese Yen is really showing quite a reversal after Takaichi's snap election wins. Traders express their concerns for the intervention threat, but this could also largely be some profit-taking flows turning into a new trend lower.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for February 11, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Traders are getting ready for the most important Non-Farm Payrolls report in a while. Get ready for immense reactions, particularly if it sends a negative report!Don't forget to check out our NFP Preview right here.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

With Bitcoin remaining below $70,000, altcoins struggle to find momentumDrifting lower, the Cryptocurrency market is still awaiting for a meaningful bounceObserving technical analysis for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Cryptos have bounced back quite swiftly since their rout last week.Nevertheless, the price action and sentiment around the digital assets class remain weak, looking for a spot to consolidate in peace.Indeed, when such dramatic outflows occur, even in traditional asset classes such as equities, bonds, or metals, participants take their time before regaining confidence and actually show meaningful buying interest.A crisis of belief often translates into slow, gradual drifts lower, the time required for participants to get flat, retire algorithms, and, overall, for market sentiment to return to a more neutral level.Does it mean we won't see any more flash crashes or value halvings? It is tough to say in such unpredictable times.What is certain is that the most leveraged classes of investors are backing off, allowing funding spreads to narrow and open interest to return to non-speculative levels, where movement can be more stable. zoom_out_map Current Bitcoin and BTC Open Interest – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 An argument could be that, despite being back to Liberation day Open interest levels, longs and shorts can still correct further – Currently at around $20B, the action looks poised for further deleveraging ahead. Open interests at $10B would be considered low.While big players reduce their positions amid high volatility and lower performance, it can be interesting to spot projects that can be accumulated slowly as valuations correct from their relative extremes.For a guide on gradually accumulating cryptocurrencies, I invite you to check out our DCA investing guide. It is never wise to call for a bottom while the Market still doesn't know where to head, but in such times, planning and taking calculated risks help investors and traders to reduce the uncertainty to find opportunities.By the way, before Markets form absolute bottoms, it is common to see a very harsh catalyst that isn’t followed with much selling, indicating that participants are turning the page on a bear trend. We haven't had this catalyst yet; keep a close eye on fresh developments, news, and how they interact with Crypto sentiment to stay ahead of headlines and fear. zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 The total Market Cap is still stuck in a downward channel – Bouncing from its lows last Friday still the action looks very timid.Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL). Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) tests $80 ahead of NFP – What's next?The Oil Tug-of-War: Geopolitics vs. Global glut continues. Will bulls or bears prevail?NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesTech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookThe Current Session in Cryptos zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – February 9, 2026 (15:17). Source: FInviz Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is attempting to find an equilibrium price after bouncing at its $1,750 Major 2025 support.Now below its $2,100 to $2,300 support, the key level now acts as an important momentum pivot level. Without many signs of life, the action can consolidate between $1,385 to $2,100 for the period to come.However, any session close above the Pivot zone could trigger a renewed interest in the Crypto.And as always, when you see interest in ETH, expect interest to follow across the entire crypto space (particularly in the project altcoins – memecoins have their own, more erratic, signals of rallying).Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$1,650 to $1,750 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support2025 Bottom Support $1,380 to $1,5002025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$2,100 to $2,300 June War support now Key Pivot$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now minor Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 December resistance$3,500 (+/- $50) Key Resistance$4,950 Current new All-time highsRipple (XRP) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ripple (XRP) Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ripple got sold off harshly in the past week, reaching $1.10 lows as liquidations accelerated in the Top 4 Market Cap.Since, XRP recovered well but is poised for a similar destiny as its older brother Ether. Bulls will need to push above $1.50 to assume that better days are indeed ahead.Failing to breach the level should see a progressive drift lower towards last Friday's levels – A break of the lows scenario is not out of the picture!Levels of interest for XRP trading:Support Levels:$1.10 to $1.20 Recent Drop Support$0.90 to $1.00 Psychological SupportEarly 2024 consolidation support $0.50 to $0.60Resistance Levels:$1.50 Momentum Pivot (bull above, bear below)$1.90 to $2.00 Major Pivotal Resistance$2.35 2026 ResistanceResistance at March 2025 $3.00 WickMain ATH resistance Zone $3.40 to $3.65Solana (SOL) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Solana was subject to intense competition and accumulation in late 2024 and early 2025 but has since largely overshot to the downside.Back to its 2022 consolidation support ($76 to $82), it remains one of the most undersold cryptocurrencies when looking at previous cycles and its competitors.It could of course continue to drift lower but it will be interesting to see if there is still much downside left for the Crypto.Any further break could see interest at around $50.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:$76 to $82 Major 2022 Pivot$69 February lows$50 Psychological levelResistance Levels:Major Momentum Pivot $115 to $120$125 to $130 2026 Base Resistance$140 to $150 Major Resistance$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades and Happy 10th of February (it's my birthday)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei surge continues Japan's Nikkei 225 surged to a new record highFrance's unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 7.9% in the final quarter of 2025The US dollar retreated to near a one-week low as the Japanese yen strengthened, while gold managed to sustain its position above the $5,000-per-ounce psychological thresholdMarket participants are focused on a series of critical economic indicators, including the weekly ADP employment report and the NFIB small business optimism index later today.Asian markets surged on Tuesday as investors reacted positively to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory.Leading the regional gains, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.3% to reach a new record high, marking its third straight day of increases. This momentum lifted the MSCI All-Country World Index to a fresh peak, while the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) rose 0.6%.Despite the equity rally, the Japanese yen also saw continued strength for a second consecutive session.In Southeast Asia, Indonesian markets remained resilient, climbing 1% even after FTSE Russell delayed a planned index review. This stability comes despite recent warnings from MSCI regarding a potential downgrade to frontier status due to transparency concerns.Meanwhile, the Japanese bond market saw significant activity as yields on long-term government bonds retreated for a fourth day. The 40-year JGB yield dropped 8.5 basis points to 3.73%, while the 30-year yield fell to 3.495%.This cooling of bond yields which move inversely to prices follows a period of record highs triggered by Takaichi’s campaign promise to suspend food taxes for two years. With her Liberal Democratic Party now firmly in power after a decisive win, foreign demand has surged, stabilizing the debt market even as equity investors celebrate the political certainty.Most Read: NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesFrench unemployment rate hit four-year highs France's labor market showed signs of cooling in the final quarter of 2025, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.9%. This figure exceeded market expectations of 7.8% and reflects a steady climb from the 7.7% recorded in the third quarter, marking the highest jobless rate since late 2021.The total number of unemployed individuals grew by 56,000 to reach 2.5 million. While this is a significant 0.6 percentage point increase year-over-year, the current rate remains 2.6 points lower than the peak levels seen in 2015.The demographic breakdown reveals a stark contrast across age groups, with younger workers bearing the brunt of the downturn. Unemployment for those aged 15–24 surged by 2.4 points to reach 21.5%, while the 15–29 age bracket saw a 0.5-point increase to 16.0%.Conversely, the rate for workers aged 25–49 saw a slight improvement, falling 0.2 points to 6.9%, and unemployment for those 50 and older remained steady at 5.1%. Gender-based data showed a narrowing gap as female unemployment dipped slightly to 7.6%, while male unemployment rose to 8.1%.Despite the rise in joblessness, other indicators suggest the French labor market remains highly active. The overall employment rate for the 15–64 age group held firm at 69.4%, hovering near historic highs.While full-time employment remained stable at 57.5%, part-time roles saw a modest increase to 11.8%. Most notably, the total activity rate measuring both those employed and those actively seeking work reached an all-time record of 75.4%, suggesting that more people than ever are participating in the workforce.European Session - European shares eye muted opening European equity markets were positioned for a flat opening on Tuesday as a period of significant growth gave way to investor hesitation.While the previous two sessions saw strong gains fueled by positive corporate earnings and a jump in Eurozone investor sentiment for February, market participants have shifted their focus to upcoming US economic reports. These data points are expected to be critical in shaping future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.Locally, the day’s agenda includes the release of French labor statistics and industrial production figures from Turkey, which will provide further insight into regional economic health.The corporate landscape also contributed to the morning's cautious atmosphere. Standard Chartered made headlines with the unexpected departure of CFO Diego De Giorgi, who stepped down to join asset manager Apollo; Peter Burrill has been appointed as his interim successor.Meanwhile, the luxury sector remains under pressure as Kering revealed a continued slump in sales for its flagship brand, Gucci, highlighting ongoing struggles in the high-end retail market. Reflecting this collective uncertainty, futures for both the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 showed virtually no movement in premarket trading.On the FX front, the US dollar retreated on Tuesday as traders braced for a wave of new economic data, including retail sales and labor figures.The Japanese yen spearheaded the move, strengthening to 155.24 per dollar following an 0.8% jump on Monday. This recovery was bolstered by verbal warnings from Japanese officials and a renewed focus on fiscal sustainability under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, helping the currency distance itself from recent record lows against the euro and the Swiss franc.Sentiment toward the dollar was further dampened by reports that Chinese regulators have encouraged domestic banks to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries, contributing to the "sell America" theme currently circulating in global markets.Meanwhile, the euro maintained its strength at $1.19125 after its own significant rally on Monday, leaving the US Dollar Index (DXY) languishing near a one-week low of 96.79.In China, the yuan surged past the 6.91 per dollar mark for the first time since mid-2023, bringing its year-to-date gains above 1% amid expectations of continued appreciation.Other commodity-linked currencies saw more modest movement; the Australian dollar dipped 0.2% to $0.7079, pulling back slightly from a three-year peak, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.3% to settle at $0.60395.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday but managed to sustain their position above the significant $5,000-per-ounce psychological threshold. This retreat follows a volatile period where the metal surged 2% on Monday, briefly recovering after a dramatic correction from its late-January record of nearly $5,595.The broader precious metals complex mirrored this cautious sentiment, with silver experiencing even sharper fluctuations. After a nearly 7% rally in the previous session, spot silver fell 2.1% to approximately $81.63 per ounce on Tuesday.Like gold, silver is currently stabilizing after a historic selloff that saw it plunge from a peak of over $121 on January 29. Market analysts note that while speculative profit-taking is driving these short-term dips, long-term support remains firm due to continued central bank accumulation led by the People's Bank of China and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.Read More:NFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/ozRout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK dataThe US dollar faced continued downward pressure on Tuesday, as a pervasive sense of bearishness took hold of the market. This negative sentiment is clearly reflected in the FX options markets, where demand for dollar "puts", bets that the currency will fall, remains high across short, medium, and long-term tenors.Further weighing on the greenback were recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who suggested that the dollar’s current weakness is not a "first order" concern for US inflation. His remarks have bolstered the market's belief that Washington is currently maintaining a stance of "benign neglect," appearing comfortable with a softer currency as long as it doesn't trigger a more severe inflationary spike.Looking ahead to the rest of the day, investors are focused on a series of critical economic indicators, including the weekly ADP employment report and the NFIB small business optimism index. Market attention will also be fixed on the December retail sales release, where the "control group" category is projected to show a healthy 0.4% month-on-month increase.Such a result would support the narrative that the American consumer remains resilient, a trend that could be further reinforced in March when households begin receiving their annual tax rebate checks. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, The FTSE 100 index is on the decline this morning and is approaching an area of support at 10330.A break below this support area can bring the 100-day MA into play resting at 10247.If this level is able to hold then a bounce may materialize with immediate resistance at the 10415 handle.The one concern is that the RSI period-14 has crossed below the 50 level which hints at a shift toward bearish momentum.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 9 This week opens on a broadly positive note, with the Debasement Trade flows dominating today's session.Profiting from a US Dollar sell-off, Tech Stocks, Commodities, FX Majors, and all rebounded after their struggles last week. The Nasdaq is actually leading US Indexes for the first time since January 28, pointing to some mean-reversion flows and position closures ahead of this week's gigantic US data calendar.But Markets remain skeptical – daily bounces occured in assets that have struggled at the start of February. US equities are undergoing a stark rebalancing, maintaining the Dow Jones above 50,000, but the Index still faces significant challenges ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales and Wednesday's, before its breakout confirms – DJIA closes the session flat.Commodities and Gold also rebounded, but face hurdles ahead. The Bullion reaches $5,100 ahead of the key data, but will have to push above the level to maintain. Some safe-haven bids still underpin demand, particularly after recent Chinese Gold accumulation data.Elsewhere, Japan's snap elections were a massive sweep in favor of Sanae Takaichi, removing one of the key catalysts for the Japanese Yen. JPY is finishing on top of the FX board. This session gives a certain sense of relief rallies in undersold assets, but that could really point to some Markets getting flat (reducing positions). Hence, watch out to not get caught in continuation traps ahead of this week's key events.Discover: US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookNote: I tend to provide a lot of warnings on Iran developments , but this tail risk deserves at least attention if not careful planning. US Military assets are still amassing near the Middle East, and despite the ongoing talks in Oman, the situation isn't yet to be forgotten.This could have also helped the rise in Commodities today. Read More:Rout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?Tech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookChart alert: USD/JPY rebound fades as intervention fears signal renewed downside risk below 157.50NFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/oz zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 5, 2026 Today really looked like a Debasement Trade Stocks session with Oracle, Microsoft, Palantir and Nvidia rebounding that way.But watch out for short-positioning getting relieved (implying less potential for continuation) ahead of key releases.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today really looked like we were in early October, except for Cryptos remaining muted for the most part.Silver finishes on top of the asset board, but is selling off quite suddenly ahead of the COMEX close. Oil on the other hand did not give up its gains, up 2.30% today.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 9, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs It was all about the US Dollar selloff today, profiting to the Swissie and Japanese Yen the most – It will be interesting to see if the Yen maintains a better road ahead. Threats for an FX intervention by the Ministry of Finance are still quite active.Watch out for these trends potentially stalling ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales data.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for February 10, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Monday evening is light on hard data, with markets guided mainly by Fed speakers (Bostic, Miran) and BoE’s Mann, setting the tone on policy bias. In Asia-Pac, Westpac consumer confidence will be the only concrete release.Tuesday is the key risk event: US focus shifts to Retail Sales and the Employment Cost Index, both crucial for the inflation-growth mix and near-term Fed expectations. Hammack, Logan, the two most hawkish Fed voters could amplify any reaction. Overnight, China CPI/PPI will be watched for deflation signals, while NAB business confidence adds a domestic check on Australia.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar is opening the week on a sharp descent, with few catalysts to show for it.Are participants getting ready for dovish Non-Farm Payrolls? It could surely be the case.Last week showed a startling turn in pre-NFP labor surveys. Jobless Claims reached their highest in since early December, Challenger layoffs sent out another 2008-2009 comparison, and even the previously rebounding ADP private payrolls surprised to the downside. zoom_out_map Jobless Claims Weekly Data since 2025 – Source: FRED If it were only expectations of a soft number on Wednesday, however, that would traditionally translate into lower yields across the board.The US yield curve is steepening (expecting lower Federal Reserve rates ahead), but bonds are broadly unchanged on the day.US 10Y Yields Weekly Chart zoom_out_map US 10-Year Yields Weekly Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. Apart from sell-the-fact news in the Yen after Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the Japanese snap elections, taking USD/JPY back below 156.00, other FX currencies are also taking their turn on dollar weakness.The Greenback is at the bottom of the Major currency board in today's session.Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. The Dollar Index erased its February gains and will test a strong Support range (96.50 to 97.00) amid oversold RSI levels – is the reversal overextended?Check out more levels for the US Dollar in our recent DXY in-depth analysis.Stocks and Commodities are also rebounding to start the week, with metals taking more than a breather, extending higher in their 3rd consecutive sessions of gains.Gold is now back comfortably above $5,000 in today's rise (and even, $5,100!), indicating that the safe-haven is still far from being out of the picture for investors – China did reveal that January was their 15th month of acquisitions for the Bullion, reflecting their cautious stance with the US Dollar.By the way, Chinese regulators recently demanded that Banks reduce their reliance on US Treasuries, marking a new turn in the financial Cold War.Gold 4H Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. Discover: Tech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook Oil isn't gapping lower like in last week's open when WTI dropped 7% (actually up above 1% today).US-Iran ongoing discussions are also a factor, maybe one for surprise as the world slowly turns its attention away from US military assets amassing in the region – Keep the latest news in check.A large bull flag seems to be forming – It developing could point to $72 in Oil but will depend on Iran developments.US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart zoom_out_map WTI US Oil 4H Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. With limited data, trends, or headlines, this session's drop in the US Dollar could provide interesting mean-reversion setups ahead of Wednesday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.Keep a close eye on tomorrow's Retail Sales data (8:30 A.M.; +0.4% m/m exp) as any beat could stage a swift bounce.And the same counts for Non-Farm Payrolls and Friday's inflation data.Despite today's weakness in the dollar, the flows seem more like mean-reversion from early February flows than the start of a restarting Debasement Trade.This week will be a massive test for Markets, so get ready!Read More: US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (09/02/2026): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest on financial markets. In today's episode, we discuss the market reaction to a "super majority" for Sanae Takaichi in the Japanese elections, as well as a once-delayed US NFP report expected this Friday. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The price of gold has started the week on the front foot. It settled down after some big price swings at the end of last week, mostly because of renewed haven demand and strong fundamental support.Right now, gold is trading at about $5,070/oz. That is an increase of roughly 1.45% today. At its highest point so far, the price reached nearly $5,080/oz.US Dollar Index (DXY) vs Gold (XAU/USD) zoom_out_map Source: TradingView China buying spree continues China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), continued to grow its gold reserves for the 15th month in a row this January. By the end of the month, the country’s total holdings reached 74.19 million ounces.Because gold prices fluctuated so much recently, the total value of these reserves jumped significantly, rising from about $319 billion to nearly $370 billion in just one month.While gold is typically a "safe" investment during times of trouble, it had a very rocky start to the year. Prices hit a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January due to heavy betting by investors.However, this surge crashed quickly after Kevin Warsh was chosen to lead the US Federal Reserve, among other factors which sent prices tumbling down to around $4,403 by early February.In terms of how people in China are using gold, the trends are mixed.Overall gold use fell for the second year in a row in 2025, dropping about 3.75%. Despite this general decline, people are rushing to buy physical gold bars and coins as a way to protect their wealth.Demand for these items spiked by over 35% last year, and they now make up more than half of all the gold bought in the country. This shows that while the PBOC has gone through phases of pausing and restarting its purchases, the general public remains very interested in gold as a safety net.US Dollar faces headwinds at the start of the week The US dollar has started the week on the back foot due to two main reasons. First, market participants are feeling more confident and are putting their money into "riskier" investments like stocks instead of holding onto the dollar. For example, big American tech companies recovered well last week, and stock markets around the world are doing great, which appears to be pulling money away from the dollar.Second, things are not looking as strong back at home in the United States. Recent reports showed that the job market is weaker than people expected. Because of this, investors are waiting to see if the Federal Reserve will change its plans or worry more about unemployment.This combination of better opportunities abroad and disappointing news at home is pushing the value of the dollar down with major data reports ahead.US data ahead: NFP and CPI could provide a catalyst A busy week for US data could be a catalyst for gold bulls or could prove to be a thorn in the side. The question on the mind of market participants is which will it be?First, we will get the NFP and jobs report on Wednesday with unemployment also a key metric to keep an eye on. The recent uptick and recovery has given market participants something else to pay close attention to besides just job creation in the private sector.A miss on the unemployment rate or NFP print could stoke significant US dollar volatility and thus impact gold trajectory.The CPI report on (originally scheduled for Wednesday) will be another major data point to watch. Private sector reports show that inflation is slowing down quickly, there is still a concern that the official CPI might stay high. This is mainly because of the delayed effects of trade tariffs.US companies are currently paying the taxes on imported goods, and while some of these businesses are trying to save money elsewhere to cover the extra costs, there is a strong chance they will eventually pass those costs on to shoppers.On the positive side, cheaper energy prices and falling rent costs are helping to balance things out and keep overall inflation from rising too much.Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments as well with the US-Iran-Israel situation a fluid and evolving risk to market sentiment. This could have major implications for haven demand this week as well. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is starting to lean toward further gains for Gold prices.The rally since the February 2 low at 4402 has printed a higher high and higher low with a fresh higher high looking more likely.The period-14 RSI broke above the 50 level which hints at bullish momentum.A break and four-hour candle close above the $5100/oz may give bulls more cause for optimism as well and may lead to a speedy rally toward the $5200/oz mark.A four-hour candle close below the $4760/oz would lead to a break in structure and the need to re-evaluate price action.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks mean-revert higher after strong defensive rotation flows last weekTraders await for significant tests this week with NFP and CPI releases, containing volumes and volatility for nowExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Geopolitical turmoil is fading into the background as traders already look ahead to a major stress test from US data.The past week marked a sharp shift in positioning across risk assets and equity markets. After months of gradual rotations, stock benchmarks appear to have reached a turning point, with high-beta Tech, AI, and Software names flat-out dropping against more traditional sectors. A striking illustration of the trend is seen by looking at Microsoft versus Walmart — with two very different trends now clearly forming. zoom_out_map Walmart Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 9, 2026. zoom_out_map Microsoft Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 9, 2026. Is this move justified? For now, the US continues to benefit from AI-driven productivity gains without equivalent labor growth, so that benefits US companies and profit-expectations for now. But that imbalance is precisely what’s unsettling investors, as artificial intelligence moves deeper into its phase of creative destruction.With restructuring underway among AI leaders and the US economic outlook still broadly supportive, flows are being forced to readjust. The era of passive investing — where everything rose together — is now behind us. Participants are now hunting for local mispricings, many of which have surfaced in long-ignored defensive sectors such as Energy, Consumer Defensives, and Agriculture. zoom_out_map Sector Performance since October 2025 – Source: TradingView. February 9, 2026. This rotation helped propel the Dow Jones to fresh all-time highs last week, breaking above the 50,000 mark, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 lagged behind. That milestone sets elevated expectations heading into a heavy week: US Retail Sales (Tuesday), Non-Farm Payrolls (Wednesday), and CPI (Friday) could all challenge the recent relief bounce in equities.Today is shaping up as the calmest session, with limited drivers outside of geopolitics and a softer US Dollar. Traders are also watching Fed Governor Waller’s speech this afternoon (13:30 ET) for any tone shift, now that he is out of the running for Fed Chair. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:36 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026 This session reverts some of last week's rebalancing flows with Microsoft and Semiconductors leading the way and profit-taking among other sectors – Typical from key outperformers ahead of high-tier data.We prepare for the heavy week with today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.Note: Iran developments remain one of the largest tail risk for volatility, hence as participants turn their attention away, keep a close eye on any breaking news. Read More:Chart alert: USD/JPY rebound fades as intervention fears signal renewed downside risk below 157.50US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookBank of England moves closer to rate cuts. March a real turning point for monetary policy and the PoundDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is now consolidating after last Friday's explosion to a new-record.Holding above 50,000 in today's session confirms that the index remains bid even above the milestone ahead of this week's key reports.Any push above the overnight gap-higher (50,271) after the Non-Farm Payrolls data will be a sign for continued breakout for the cycle.Watch out however if you see a strong drop with high volume in Wednesday's open.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsAll-time Highs mini-resistance 50,200Session highs Resistance 50,271Potential minor resistance 50,400 to 50,500Support Levels49,900 to 50,000 Momentum PivotJanuary ATH Resistance now Pivotal Support 49,500 to 49,700Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now proving that it won't abandon this battle so easily, breaking out of its past week's descending trend in this morning's action.Nonetheless, with the key data ahead, dip-buyers will want to monitor closely reactions to the 4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages.Rejecting them would pose a dead-cat bounce signal for the tech sectorBreaking back above however points to further recovery for the Nasdaq which could stage a rebound against the DowKeep these indicators in check after the NFP and CPI for confirmation on the upcoming trends.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (4H 50 and 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,250February 5 lows 24,16524,500 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView It seems that the S&P 500 is poised to retest its 7,020 All-time record ahead of the key weekly release, but it seems unrealistic to expect a real breakout before that.After NFP and CPI, see if traders can manage a clean push above the ATH, closing above on the week will be a confirming sign.Any clear rejection however confirms the rangebound picture for the Index even further.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance now Pivot 6,945 to 6,975 (testing highs)Session top 6,983Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsPivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Sharp drop, failed rebound: USD/JPY broke below 157.50 and slid 3% to a three-month low at 152.09 before rebounding, but the recovery toward 157 has now stalled, suggesting the bounce is losing steam.Politics didn’t weaken the yen as expected: Despite PM Takaichi’s landslide election win and scope for expansionary policies, the anticipated “Takaichi trade” faded quickly as intervention fears capped USD/JPY upside.Bearish technical inflection: Price action has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, with momentum rolling over; a break below 156.36 risks renewed downside toward 155.66–153.85, while 157.50 remains key resistance. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: USD/JPY plunging below 158 on suspected intervention, watch 157.50 support”, published on 23 January 2026.Since our last report, the USD/JPY has broken below the highlighted key support of 157.50 and staged a swift decline of around 3% within three days to print a three-month low of 152.09 on 27 January 2026.Thereafter, the price actions of USD/JPY rebounded by 3.4% to hit a high of 157.27 last Friday, 6 February 2026, on the backdrop of a potential hawkish tilt that may be undertaken by the newly nominated Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.Also, in anticipation of favourable outcome for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party performance on the 8 February snap election for the lower house, which allows her to have a stronger mandate to push for expansionary policies that will likely “hinder” the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s current gradual interest rate hike monetary policy stance.“Takaichi trade” on a weaker JPY gets fizzle out zoom_out_map Fig. 1: OANDA Labs Currency Power Balance tool as of 9 Feb 2026 (Source: OANDA Labs tools) Takaichi’s coalition party has managed to score a stunning victory in the snap election and surpassed the two-thirds majority of 310 seats, where Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party won 316 seats in the 465-seat chamber.A super majority allows Takaichi’s coalition party to secure a majority on all parliamentary committees. A supermajority means it could overrule opposition to draft legislation in the upper house, which in turn allows Takaichi to push ahead with her campaign's expansionary policies more easily.On paper, such a scenario is likely to see a significant sell-off in the Japanese yen once the FX market reopens on Monday, 9 February early Asian session. In contrast, the earlier anticipated sell-off in the JPY was short-lived; the USD/JPY only spiked up by 42 pips to print an intraday high of 157.66 (slightly above the former broken-down key short-term support of 157.50) before it traded down lower by 0.5% to print a current intraday level of 156.50 at the time of writing where the JPY is now the strongest intraday major currency against the greenback (see Fig. 1).Intervention fears put a halt to further intraday JPY weakness Japanese Finance Minister Katayama reiterated on Sunday, as the election results came in favour of PM Takaichi’s coalition party, that she was keeping in close contact with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and pledged that she “will communicate” with financial markets today if needed.These remarks have sparked fears in speculators of a joint intervention, and or rate checks if the USD/JPY rallied swiftly, triggering a déjà vu experience on the recent swift three-day sell-off of the USD/JPY from 23 January.Let's now look at the technical chart of USD/JPY to decipher its short-term trajectory.Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Inflection point reached for bearish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 9 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 9 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) USD/JPY’s rebound from the 28 January 2026 low of 152.09 is likely to have ended. Watch the 157.50 short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 156.36 may trigger further short-term weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at 155.66, 154.73, and 153.85 (see Fig. 2).However, a clearance above 157.50 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 158.80/159.45 medium-term pivotal resistance zone.Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias Based on the recent two sessions of price actions from 6 February to 9 February 2026, USD/JPY has formed an impending daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern, which increases the odds of a bearish reversal (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown from its former parallel ascending support from 28 January 2026, which implies a potential build-up in short-term bullish momentum conditions. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We are in unprecedented times to say the least!With all the fears and uncertainty around Markets, particularly with what we have seen in recent weeks, investors are running back to traditionals and defensive as this week's Stock rotation pursued.The Dow Jones officially reached 50,000 just about an hour ago and bulls are battling for a weekly close above the milestone. zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView What a session in the Dow!The Index is leaving its competitors in the dark, being the only major US index to reach all-time highs in the past week, but the breakout could drip into more positive sentiment compared to what we've seen the past weeks.A pretty good sign for investors in such uncertain times – The key test of strength will land next week with the Non-Farm Payrolls report.For a more in-depth analysis, I invite you to explore our recent editions: Read More:Stock Markets and Tech sector breathe again – Dow Jones to new All-Time Highs!Another red wave – Dow Jones & Nasdaq higher timeframe Outlook Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of England is very close to cutting interest rates – the MPC decision was taken by a 5–4 vote with the policy rate at 3.75%, and the new forecasts show inflation falling below the 2% target as early as April, significantly increasing the likelihood of a cut, potentially as soon as March.The UK’s economic outlook is clearly deteriorating – the Bank of England has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%, expects unemployment to rise to 5.3%, and sees a weaker labor market, which strengthens the case for further monetary easing.The pound remains under pressure, but the path of rate cuts is not set in stone – markets quickly raised the probability of a March rate cut, weighing on GBP, but the following day the pound recouped its losses. The latest meeting of the Bank of England turned out to be one of the most dovish moments in the current monetary policy cycle and clearly shifted market expectations regarding the central bank’s next steps. Although the key interest rate was kept unchanged at 3.75%, the voting outcome itself and the new macroeconomic projections have led investors to seriously consider the start of another round of rate cuts as early as the next meetings.One vote away from a cutThe Monetary Policy Committee’s decision was passed by a 5–4 vote, meaning the central bank was just one vote short of an immediate rate cut. All four members of the dovish wing voted in favor of easing, with the decisive vote once again cast by Governor Andrew Bailey. This voting split was widely interpreted as a clear signal that the balance within the MPC is shifting and that maintaining a restrictive policy stance is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.Inflation falls below target, growth clearly slowsThe key argument behind the more accommodative stance lies in the new inflation projections. According to the Bank of England, inflation, currently running at around 3.4%, is expected to fall to about 2% as early as April and then remain at or below the target through 2029. Moreover, for four consecutive quarters inflation is projected to dip below 2%, which in practice means that the risk of a sustained price “overheating” has declined significantly. zoom_out_map BoE inflation forecasts, source: Bloomberg.com At the same time, growth prospects are deteriorating. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down to 0.9% from 1.2%, and the labor market is beginning to send increasingly worrying signals. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, and in 2026–2027 the number of unemployed people is projected to be around 100,000 higher than previously assumed. For the central bank, this implies a growing risk of over-tightening the economy at a time when inflation is already clearly weakening.Fiscal and regulatory factors reinforce disinflationThe decline in inflation is being driven not only by market forces, but also by administrative and fiscal decisions. The effects of earlier tax and contribution hikes are fading, while government actions—including cuts in regulated energy prices—are set to mechanically reduce inflation by around 0.5 percentage points. An additional argument for a more accommodative policy comes from the Decision Maker Panel survey, which shows that companies are planning the smallest price increases since 2024, suggesting a clear easing of cost pressures across the economy.Markets react quickly: March in playFinancial markets immediately priced in the central bank’s more dovish message. The probability of a rate cut as early as the March meeting rose to over 50%, and the pound weakened by around 0.9%, falling toward 1.3526 USD. Bailey later acknowledged that he sees this market pricing as a “reasonable benchmark,” further strengthening the conviction that a March cut is a realistic scenario rather than mere speculation. Today, GBP/USD in turn reacted at the support level around 1.3525, with the pound rising by 0.6% against the U.S. dollar. zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of GBPUSD, source: TradingView The “last mile” remains crucialDespite the clearly dovish turn, not all policymakers share the market’s optimism. The bank’s chief economist, Huw Pill, stresses that monetary policy is indeed moving toward sustainably bringing inflation back to target, but warns against easing too quickly. In his view, part of the disinflation is temporary and driven by factors that may fade, such as lower energy prices or one-off fiscal decisions. Pill also highlights that geopolitical risks and external shocks could have a greater impact on economic stability than the precise pace of future rate cuts.What’s next for BoE policy and the Pound?Overall, the Bank of England’s decision was clearly more dovish than many in the market had expected just a few weeks ago. It is increasingly evident that the question is no longer “if” another rate cut will happen, but “when” and at what pace. If labor market data continue to deteriorate and inflation indeed remains below target, the March meeting could mark the beginning of the next phase of monetary easing.For the pound, this implies a period of heightened volatility. The prospect of faster rate cuts favors downward pressure on GBP, but at the same time any caution from the Bank of England in the months ahead could lead to periodic corrections. Upcoming macroeconomic data releases will therefore be crucial both for MPC decisions and for the future direction of the British currency. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks rebound after a terrible start to FebruaryWidespread rebound across all sectors, with Tech seeing a particular bounce (despite Amazon, Google and Meta struggling)Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The green freight is back, pulling global equities sharply higher.A more fragile risk appetite following last week’s new Fed Chair announcement cascaded into a brutal, cross-asset selloff yesterday leaving Participants scratching their heads.First, lingering geopolitical anxiety (US-Iran) weighed heavily on sentiment.On top of that, recent mid-tier US labor data challenged the resilience narrative that showed throughout most releases since December.JOLTS, jobless claims, the Challenger layoffs report, and Tuesday’s ADP misses all pointed toward a labor market that is weakening rather than holding up, lowering expectations ahead of Wednesday’s NFP release. zoom_out_map Challenger Job Cuts – January 2026 report – Source: Challenger, Grey and Christmas Overnight, however, anxiety eased.Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+4.20%) led a powerful rebound ahead of Sunday’s snap elections, while dovish repricing for both the Fed and the Bank of England — alongside ongoing US-Iran discussions that have so far avoided escalation — helped fuel today’s risk rally.Even cryptocurrencies, which have been under heavy pressure, rebounded sharply after reaching key support zones. Bitcoin quickly flashed from $60,000 to $69,000!Whether the bounce holds remains the big question. One thing is clear: digital assets remain fragile and firmly back at the top of the volatility leaderboard. zoom_out_map Daily performance across Global Index Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Tech and software names are also catching a breather after months of drought, as investors had punished heavy AI-related CapEx amid fears of creative destruction.Services once sold at a premium are increasingly achievable with a few Claude or Gemini tools. While that reality still poses a threat to high-P/E companies, the sector is enjoying temporary relief.Nvidia is leading mega-cap performance alongside AMD — a dynamic not seen since October 2025 — while other Mag-7 names such as Google, Amazon, and Meta continue to struggle despite record earnings.Markets are growing less complacent about massive AI infrastructure spending as doubts around near-term profitability creep in. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 6, 2026 Traders are bracing for a volatile week ahead, but with noticeably less anxiety. Dovish expectations for NFP could further cement the odds of a March Fed cut, currently priced at just 15%.After diving into Weekly charts for Nasdaq and the Dow (I invite you to check them out), we move into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 ahead of the weekend. Read More:US Dollar Index (DXY) tests 98.00 but shows signs of weakness ahead of NFPPrecious metals after the correction: stabilisation, not a new rallyBitcoin tumbles to $63,000 amid global Tech selloff – BTC/USD OutlookDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is once again outperforming its peers with traditional sectors seeing even crazier relative strength with the ongoing sentiment rebound.Now breezing through its preceding all-time highs, the Index will face a key test at the 50,000 milestone which could be reached for the first time in today's session!An enormous feat when seeing that the DJIA was just at 36,618 during the Liberation Day drop.Despite all the warnings and pessimistic sentiment, Equities consolidating at their highs really was a sign of strength (as indicated in our higher timeframe outlook). Nevertheless, recent volatility remains very tricky to trade, hence this run to new highs will be essential for days to come:Remaining above all-time highs will be a show of strength, particularly if the Index holds there after the Non-Farm payrolls.The 50,000 level will act as key psychological level, breaching it to the upside is a sign of further strength incomingWatch for any fakeouts on Monday which could have the opposite effectKeep a close eye on immediate action as prices reach the 49,900 to 50,000 resistance.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Psychological Resistance49,927 session highs and ATH (CFD) – Index at 49,909Potential mini-Resistance 50,150Potential mini-Resistance 2 50,450Support LevelsJanuary ATH Resistance now Pivot From 49,500 to 49,700 (Bull above, bear below)Intraday Support 49,200 to 49,350Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (acted as key support, watch if it breaks)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is leading quite a surprising rebound (+3.37% from lows) in today's action after struggling from rough outflows – It had initially been lagging the rise in the Dow Jones but is now catching up towards the mid-session.Still, the tech-heavy index will be under scrutiny over times to come, particularly as software-tech sector outflows have amassed quite some momentum.Evolving within a descending channel, bulls will want to push for a break above the 25,250 Pivot Zone highs (which will break the channel).Rejecting from there would be sending more bearish signs for continuation lower.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsFebruary 5 lows 24,16524,500 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also catching quite a breather after its fast paced descent to test the lows of its 6,700 to 7,000 broad range (holding there since December 2025).Despite the huge move higher, traders will want to see a break above the 7,020 All-Time Highs to confirm a further extension and a pursued rally.Keep an eye on the 4H 50 and 200 Moving Averages acting as imminent intraday resistance from 6,920 to 6,930.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages (6,918 and 6,930)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsKey Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran discussions!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (06/02/2026): In the last episode of the week, join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss a crash in precious metals and crypto pricing, described as a general move away from risk assets. Otherwise, we discuss how developments in AI are disrupting established tech companies, and the latest from the Bank of England. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar bounced higher after Warsh's nomination but is showing signs of stallingRecent labor data previews (JOLTS, Claims) showed unexpected weaknessDollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Markets have a lot to digest in recent trading, with geopolitics, the new Fed Chair nomination, earnings season, tech selloffs, and growing fears that AI-driven productivity gains could translate into fewer jobs.This dynamic sat at the core of yesterday’s volatility. Equity indices moved in a one-way slide, cryptocurrencies crumbled, and even metals stumbled as a global deleveraging of Debasement Trades unfolded.Two underdogs decided to make their comebacks: the US dollar and US Treasuries, both of which had recently been sidelined as capital chased the shine of precious metals.Since the Trump-Dollar episode — when comments praising a “great” value of the dollar amid the post-Greenland mini-crisis helped push the greenback to four-year lows — the dollar has staged a strong rebound against most FX peers. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against other FX Majors since Warsh's appointment – Source: TradingView But yesterday’s rally may now be facing a test.After labor data improved following October’s scare, markets grew more comfortable with the idea that US employment conditions were stabilizing, if not rebounding, as jobless claims trended lower through December and January.This week, however, brought fresh warning signs.Initial claims surprised to the upside, JOLTS pointed to a sharply tighter job-openings market, and the Challenger layoffs report revived uneasy comparisons with 2009.Risk-off flows and broad deleveraging fueled a bid in the dollar, but traders are now bracing for a softer Non-Farm Payrolls report.A few basis points of rate cuts have already been repriced, with clarity expected on Wednesday when the delayed NFP is finally released.All of this could point to a daily top in the Dollar Index.We’ll dive into an in-depth technical analysis of DXY to assess whether — absent any fresh geopolitical shock, with US-Iran talks still ongoing — the dollar is set to keep falling, or if Kevin Warsh’s nomination has genuinely altered the broader trend. Discover:Bitcoin tumbles to $63,000 amid global Tech selloff – BTC/USD OutlookPrecious metals after the correction: stabilisation, not a new rallyMetals are turning bearish – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar really embarked into quite a reversal after the FOMC (as was highlighted in our previous analysis) but is now facing the test of the key 98.00 Level.Despite all the talks of dedollarization and such, the USD has maintained a volatile but rangebound picture since July 2025 between 96.00 and 100.00.Some new lows were attained against some major pairs like AUD/USD or even EUR/USD, but the dollar selloff has been much more local and contained since.Despite the larger directionless trend, in-range analysis helps to guide decision making and relative strength to know.When prices stall at the middle of a range, it implies that the trend could be shifting.As seen with the Daily RSI taking a turn at the neutral line, and bulls not able to breach the 98.00 Mid-range level, weakness could be expected ahead.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, we spot how resilient the 98.00 resistance will prove for the current rebound, particularly as early indications of a bear channel formation are showing up.(Keep in mind that a swift sweep to the upside on any Iran turmoil could change the picture and would need further analysis).An intermediate range could also be shaping up between 97.00 to 98.00, levels which acted as magnets throughout the past 6-months – Reactions to the 4H 50-period moving average (97.017) will be very important.On the session, USD shorts against FX majors could make sense until the 97.00 handle. Pre-weekend risk could warrant position closure.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.00 Key Mid-Range Resistance (test, mini-range highs)Session Highs 97.993Mini-resistance 98.80 to 99.0099.40 to 99.50 January Resistance100.376 November highsSupport LevelsAugust and mini-range Pivot 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Trump USD Flash Crash 95.5595.00 Main psychologic support1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking at reactions, the US Dollar is getting rejected from reaching the resistance zone. However, oversold RSI conditions could point to an imminent retest of its 1H 50-period MA (97.76) before potentially correcting.If prices get there, the 97.00 level will be very essential for the times to come:Rebounding there would take out the potential bear channel (seen on the 4H timeframe)Breaking the level hints at a retest of the Trump-USD Lows (95.55)Any sudden flash above 98.00 (candle close above and high volume) hints at geopolitical tensions worsening.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks now all drag lower after the past few sessions of divergenceWith recent tech sector outflows, risk-assets are taking a hitExploring High Timeframe Technical Levels for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Risk assets are not enjoying their 2026 resolutions.Kevin Warsh’s impact on markets remains unclear, but the immediate price action since his nomination has been far from reassuring. For clarity, he will only officially become the next Fed Chair after Senate confirmation.Equity indexes had already been flashing warning signs, with a persistent and sharp divergence between heavy outflows from Tech and Semiconductors — despite record earnings — and inflows into more defensive sectors. zoom_out_map Per sector performance in Stocks – February 5, 2026. Source: TradingView What stood out in today’s session is that even dovish data failed to lift sentiment (compared to how Markets reacted to them in 2025). This morning’s releases showed a sharp drop in job openings (JOLTS at 6.542M vs 7.2M expected), while layoffs surged at the highest pace for January since 2009, according to the latest Challenger report. Markets will get more clarity next week with the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls release (Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.), but until then, uncertainty dominates. zoom_out_map Challenger Job Cuts – January 2026 report – Source: Challenger, Grey and Christmas What appears to be weighing most on markets is a broad deleveraging from extreme Debasement Trades that became heavily one-sided throughout 2025. Bitcoin is now trading below $70,000 (more on this later today), and Metals are also under pressure.As profits are taken and stop-losses are triggered, price moves can become exaggerated. Looking at current flows and higher-timeframe charts, this selloff still looks like a profit-taking phase — suggesting there may be more to come. In that aspect, let's dive into a Higher timeframe analysis and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Read More:Metals are turning bearish – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookMarkets Today: German factory orders surge, silver slumps, NFP release delayed as BoE & ECB Meeting lie aheadWTI in focus with US-Iran talks cancelled – US Oil Outlook zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:47 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 5, 2026 The picture is not a good looking one. Selloffs are widespread across the board and aren't solely focused on Tech.Some names including Broadcom, Meta and Costco are holding resilient but not seemingly helping the broad sentiment.Dow Jones Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) Weekly Chart – February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is actually not showing signs of weakness on its higher timeframe charts despite the current rough session – Keep a close look to see if the 48,600 to 49,700 intraday range holds.Still evolving in a major upward channel since June 2025, the 48,000 Weekly pivot has been acting as key support in the ongoing consolidation.Consolidating at relative highs is not considered a sign of weakness, nevertheless, a bullish push towards 50,000 might be required to avoid profit-taking from breaking the lower bound of the Channel.Any break of this major level could face a quick test of the 45,000 which is the next main support.Dow Jones Higher timeframe technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsSession highs 49,614High timeframe 49,000 to 50,000 resistanceAll-time Highs 49,710 (CFD) – Index ATH is at 49,653Potential resistance at 51,000Support Levels48,840 session lows48,000 short-timeframe Support, High timeframe PivotIntraday Support 48,600 to 48,70045,000 Main psychological Support42,600 to 42,800 Main Support ZoneNasdaq Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) Weekly Chart – February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is looking much less resilient compared to its older brother.A volatile range is holding the action between 24,000 and 26,000 but the failure to retake new all-time highs after last week's rebound point to further downside.The 24,500 to 25,000 pivot acts as a Major momentum guide, hence closing below on the week may trigger further profit-taking cascade. This would go along with the high-paced outflows happening in Tech.If nothing too extreme develops, an interesting dip-buying opportunity could emerge at the 50-week Moving average (23,000). Failing to rebound from there can easily open the door to 20,000 in the Nasdaq – For now this remains far, but the shorter timeframe price action isn't looking so bright either.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-Time High resistance 26,000 to 26,330Momentum Weekly Pivot from 24,500 to 25,000 (testing)26,246 FOMC highsPotential resistance on a breakout at 27,220Support LevelsRange lows and Minor Support 24,00023,000 Major July Support22,000 to 22,229 (early 2025 ATH) Key Support Zone20,000 May Bounce Support Safe Trades and keep an eye on headlines in the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold and the entire metals Market is melting from the past week of actionNow reaching key levels, precious metals will be under scrutiny for upcoming tradingHigh timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper) Metals were subject to quite a bounce after a disastrous end-of-week close and open.But for those who were looking to join the trend on dip-buying and thinking it would be that easy, Markets can offer painful lessons.One thing that stood out over the past few years of trading, looking at the Stock Market, Crypto, or more, is that overbought and oversold mean nothing.If prices are bid every day, it means participants are not willing to give up their share of the cake.If prices pull back, however, some are doubting the trend; more participants are allowed to enter, which reduces the "exclusivity" component of the frenzy, not to mention CTAs and Hedge Funds taking positions on such signals.The rally in Gold and Silver had been undefeated since August.Even before this, the May to July ($3,000 to $3,500) consolidation in the Bullion never really offered a retracement, but really just kept a sideways picture. zoom_out_map Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView, February 5, 2026. Retracing is a sign of impending weakness; consolidation, of strength.As metals retraced between 10% to 20% from their extreme rallies last Friday on the Kevin Warsh announcement, doubts are emerging, and participants are now finding new reasons to mean-revert.The latest news is that China's gold consumption fell yet again, and there are always more reasons to explain recent moves.The reality is that stops are kicking and that trading metals won't be so easy anymore. Geopolitics and Central bank compromises are still supporting factors, but at what price?That's what the Market is testing right now.In the meantime, we will dive into a Daily timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot where the pullback could stall for dip-buying. Read More:Markets Today: German factory orders surge, silver slumps, NFP release delayed as BoE & ECB Meeting lie aheadWTI in focus with US-Iran talks cancelled – US Oil OutlookAmazon (AMZN) Earnings: The $700 billion milestone and the AI crossroadsGold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView When the price action gets volatile, it's essential to keep track of technicals!Gold bears took control of the price action after yesterday's failure to close above $5,000.The current session's bear candle hints at a return within the Main 2025 bull channel;A close below $4,900 adds a bigger chance of a retest of the $4,395 Monday lows, with bearish forces entering at the channel highs.Failing to rebound here will next test the Main Support between $3,800 to $4,000.Any bounce back above $5,100 would be followed by a quick retest of the $5,600 All-Time highs.Note: Any escalation between the US and Iran can quickly change the picture and lead to a quick test of recent highs.Betting on geopolitical events is a rough thing to do in Market, hence in that perspective buy stops (above key resistance) would be the best way to express such a view.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Pivot (acting as key Resistance)$5,024 session highsCurrent All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:December Record $4,548Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish belowMain Support $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView It is crazy to see that the recent highs in Silver from just one week ago are 62% higher!Parabolic trends can provide quite some pain when they cease. Now reaching its key $70 to $72 Support, Silver stands at a significant test:Any rebound from here hints at a rangebound action from $70 to $90Keep a very close eye on the 50-Day MA ($77) for short-term momentum guides.Close below $70 would on the other hand trigger a further selloff. The next test is at the $60 minor supportPreferable entries for Silver would span between $50 to the $55 Major Support.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Higher Timeframe Resistance $89 to $922025 Record Major Pivot $80 to $84Key psychological resistance $100 to $104Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Major 2026 Support $70 to $72 (testing)December FOMC Minor Support $58.00 to $60$53.50 to $54 October Resistance now Major SupportCopper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart and levels zoom_out_map Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper is also facing a major test, with prices reaching the lower bound of its September upward channel and Pivotal support lows ($5.70).Breaching below the channel hints at a larger retracement in the commodity, with a first potential stop at the $5.40 to $5.50 Minor Support, which would test the weekly open lows.Any further retracement would see the most optimal entries for Copper at the Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00.The 200-Day Moving Average ($5.02) also hangs around there as a technical support.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:$6.00 to $6.10 Early Jan 2026 RecordCurrent ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50$6.52 Current RecordPotential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:Pivotal Support $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish Below (testing)Monday lows $5.52Minor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40 to $5.50200-Day MA $5.02Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00With positioning now far from extremes, fast bounces could happen on geopolitical turmoil, so it could be wise to stay close to the headline. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil rallies to $65 from the latest new: Iran-US talks cancelledWTI lost some ground after talks were announced but tensions are coming backExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity WTI Oil is facing renewed volatility following the latest geopolitical developments: US–Iran talks scheduled for Friday in Turkey have been cancelled.Disagreements had emerged between Iranian and US demands. Washington continued to insist on Iran abandoning its ballistic missile program, while Tehran only signaled openness on the nuclear issue.Markets had initially rallied on the prospect of talks, while oil shed much of its geopolitical premium after the weekend break, gapping lower from $66.00 to $61.50. But in the current environment, it was unlikely to remain that simple for long.Iranian officials have reiterated that they remain open to discussions, yet the US now appears to be weighing its options, including preparations for potential intervention.The core debate centers on whether an intervention could realistically lead to regime change and how escalation might be avoided to prevent a prolonged conflict. For more context on US–Iran tensions, see our past week edition.Since the cancellation headline, WTI has jumped back toward $65 and is holding near its relative highs as traders brace for a possible worsening of the conflict. zoom_out_map Odds for a US strike in Iran – Source: Polymarket. February 4, 2026 Polymarket-based odds for a strike before February 28 are just below 30%. Let's dive into a bottom-up multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine whether technicals point to continued upside or if we are reaching a maximum.We will commence with intraday charts to explore the latest action and see how it develops to Daily charts. Read More:Rebalancing continues as Tech dives – Dow Jones & US Index OutlookAmazon (AMZN) Earnings: The $700 billion milestone and the AI crossroadsResilient traders in uncertain times – North American Mid-Week Market updateUS Oil Bottom-Up Multi-Timeframe Analysis1H Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 4, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil just bounced higher by 3% on the headlines but got rejected right in the middle of its $65 to $66 Key resistance.Despite the rejection, bears aren't for now able to bring back the commodity to the pre-headline levels so the current pullback just looks like profit-taking.Some warning signs are arising however with the formation of an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern which could hint to $70 in WTI (see more on the 4H chart just below)As long as the tensions don't aggravate, expect a $63 to $66 range. Any close above $66 will be accompanied with some war headlines (particularly if the past week's $66.56 highs break).WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 4, 2026. Source: TradingView It is difficult to discern momentum in Oil when up and down spikes are so common.Two things are clear from that timeframe:WTI bulls are following closely the 4H 50-period MA to push prices higherThe action is holding within an upward channel, but any news could lead to an upside breakoutThe measured move target from the inverted Head & shoulders is shown in purple.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsPast week Spike $66.56Minor Resistance $65 to $66 (daily highs $65.55)September 2025 Major resistance $67 (could get breached if US attacks)Psychological Resistance $70 and Inverted H&S target$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport Levels$64.00 Key psychological support$63.00 4H-50 MAMay 2025 range Key Pivot $62.30 to $63.43May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Premium Support area $58.50 to $59WTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 4, 2026. Source: TradingView Now trading well above its 200-Day Moving Average, Oil is turning increasingly bullish.Fundamental factors over greener energy are still weighing on the long-run trajectory for the commodity, but geopolitical factors say otherwise.Trader are pushing the commodity towards the 50% retracement of the 12-Day War from June 2025.Any close above $66.60 would look at high-paced continuation. This would of course be contingent on tensions remaining elevated. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.