Iran has dismissed Trump's rejection of its nuclear proposals as irrelevant, with a source telling Tasnim that negotiators draft plans for Iranian interests alone and that Trump's dissatisfaction is "naturally better." Earlier:Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and security in U.S. talksTrump says Iran's proposals are "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE"Monday open indicative forex prices, 11 May 2026. USD bids.Summary:Trump posted on Truth Social that he had read Iran's response and found it totally unacceptable, per the post visible in the screenshotAn Iranian source told Tasnim that Trump's reaction to Iran's response does not matter at allThe same source stated that no one in Iran drafts negotiating plans with the aim of pleasing Trump, per TasnimThe source added that Iran's negotiation team should only draft plans in the interests of the Iranian nationThe source concluded that if Trump is not satisfied with Iran's response, that outcome is naturally better, per Tasnim citing an informed sourceAll Iranian commentary originates from Tasnim, a state-linked outlet, citing a single unnamed source, and has not been independently verifiedDonald Trump publicly rejected Iran's nuclear negotiating proposals on May 11, declaring them totally unacceptable in a post on Truth Social, as an Iranian source fired back through state-linked media to say that Trump's reaction carried no weight whatsoever with Tehran's negotiating team.Trump's post, brief and characteristically blunt, said he had read the response from what he called Iran's so-called representatives and found it unacceptable, signing off with his full title in capital letters. The post attracted hundreds of re-truths and drew immediate attention given the sensitive state of the negotiations, which had been the subject of earlier reporting on Iran's proposed draft text covering sanctions relief, security guarantees and an end to hostilities.Iran's response came rapidly and in pointed terms. A source cited by Tasnim said Trump's reaction to Iran's position does not matter at all, a formulation that went well beyond standard diplomatic pushback. The same source stated that Iran's negotiators do not and should not draft proposals with any consideration for what would satisfy the U.S. president, insisting that the negotiating team's sole obligation is to protect the rights and interests of the Iranian people.Most strikingly, the source suggested that Trump's dissatisfaction with Iran's position is not merely acceptable but preferable, framing his displeasure as a form of validation rather than a setback. That framing, whether reflecting genuine Iranian confidence or a posture adopted for domestic consumption, signals that Tehran is not inclined to soften its demands in response to public pressure from Washington.The exchange illustrates how quickly the diplomatic atmosphere can shift when both sides resort to public channels rather than quiet negotiation. The combination of Trump's blunt rejection and Iran's contemptuous response raises the prospect of a serious stall in the talks. As with the earlier reporting on Iran's draft proposals, the Tasnim material originates from a single unnamed source at a state-linked outlet and should be read with appropriate caution, though the Trump Truth Social post is a matter of public record.--The open defiance from Tehran, delivered through a state-linked channel, significantly raises the probability of a near-term breakdown in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which would dash any near-term prospect of sanctioned Iranian crude returning to market. Crude traders had begun pricing in a slim probability of sanctions relief following earlier reports of Iran's proposed text; this exchange hardens the risk premium. The tone from both sides, Trump's public rejection and Iran's dismissal of his reaction as irrelevant, suggests the gap between the two positions is wider than diplomatic language had previously implied. A collapse in talks would sustain the existing sanctions architecture on Iranian oil exports and remove a potential bearish supply overhang from the market. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and securityThe prez says no:Trump says Iran's proposals are "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE"The USD is a touch higher in really early trade. Weekend oil trade is a touch higher. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and security in U.S. talksThe usual process is tantrum first, taco later This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran is said to have proposed a text demanding U.S. sanctions relief, an end to its naval blockade, war-end guarantees and removal of OFAC oil sanctions within 30 days, per Tasnim citing an "informed source". Summary:Iran's proposed negotiating text is said to underline the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions as a condition of any agreement, according to Tasnim citing an informed sourceThe proposal reportedly calls for an end to the naval blockade of Iran following the signing of any initial understanding, per TasnimIran's draft is said to include demands for an immediate end to the war and guarantees against any renewed military attack on Iran, according to Tasnim citing an informed sourceThe proposal stresses the need for a ceasefire across all active fronts, per TasnimA 30-day window for rescinding U.S. OFAC sanctions related to Iranian oil sales is included in the draft demands, according to Tasnim citing an informed sourceAll reporting is sourced from Iran's state-linked Tasnim news agency citing a single unnamed informed source and has not been independently confirmed Iran is reported to have tabled a sweeping proposed text ahead of ongoing negotiations with the United States, with the draft said to cover sanctions relief, security guarantees and an end to active hostilities, according to Iran's state-linked Tasnim news agency, which cited an unnamed informed source. The claims have not been independently confirmed and should be treated with caution.The reported proposal places the lifting of U.S. sanctions at its core, framing relief as a prerequisite rather than an outcome of talks. Among the specific measures said to be included is a demand that Washington rescind Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctions on Iranian oil sales within a defined 30-day window following any initial understanding. That timeline would represent a significant early test of American willingness to engage on the economic dimensions of any potential framework.Beyond the sanctions question, the draft is said to address military and security concerns directly. According to the Tasnim reporting, Iran's proposed text calls for an immediate end to the war, a halt to hostilities across all fronts, and binding guarantees against any renewed attack on Iranian territory. The inclusion of such terms suggests Tehran is seeking formal security assurances as part of any negotiated arrangement, rather than relying on informal understandings.The reported demand for an end to the naval blockade of Iran adds a further dimension. That measure is said to be tied to the signing of an initial understanding rather than a final comprehensive agreement, indicating Iran may be seeking early, tangible concessions as confidence-building steps before committing to broader obligations.The reporting originates solely from Tasnim, a news agency with ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and is attributed to a single unnamed source. No corresponding confirmation has emerged from U.S. or third-party diplomatic channels. The unverified status of the material means the reported demands may reflect one Iranian faction's position, a negotiating posture intended for public consumption, or information selectively shared to shape the diplomatic environment. Analysts and traders should weigh the content accordingly until further corroboration is available.Everyone ready for another roller coaster rise this week. If that metaphor doesn't suit we can always try headline ping pong ---If the reported demands are accurate, Iran's position signals it is seeking sweeping concessions before any deal is formalised, raising the risk of a prolonged negotiating standoff. Markets will focus particularly on the 30-day OFAC oil sanctions rescission demand, which, if agreed, could unlock meaningful volumes of Iranian crude and weigh on prices. The unverified nature of the report limits immediate price moves, but persistent leaks of this kind tend to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude benchmarks. Any sign that Washington is unwilling to meet the sanctions timeline could cause talks to stall, sustaining supply risk perceptions tied to the broader regional conflict. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sat: Chinese TradeMon: Chinese Inflation (Apr), Norwegian Inflation (Apr)Tue: BoJ SOO (Apr), IEA STEO (May), EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Japanese Household Spending (Mar), German HICP Final (Apr), Italian Industrial Production (Mar), German ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr)Wed: BoC Minutes (Apr), EIA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May), Riksbank Minutes (May), French Unemployment Rate (Q1), Swedish Inflation Final (Apr), French Inflation Final (Apr), EZ Employment Change (Q1), EZ Industrial Production (Mar), EZ GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US PPI (Apr)Thu: Holiday: Europe's Ascension Day, UK GDP (Mar/Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), Indian WPI (Apr), Spanish HICP Final (Apr), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Apr), US Retail Sales (Apr), US Export/Import Prices (Apr), US Jobless Claims (May 9), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Apr)Fri: Japanese PPI (Apr), German Wholesale Prices (Apr), Norwegian GDP (Q1), Italian HICP Final (Apr), Canadian Wholesale Sales (Mar), US Industrial Production (Apr)Week AheadChinese Trade Data (Sat):China will release April trade data on Saturday, with the surplus expected to widen to about CNY 570bln from CNY 354.75bln and to about USD 82.4bln from USD 51.13bln. ING expects exports to rise about 6.5% Y/Y and imports to jump about 20.4%, reflecting strong domestic restocking and higher commodity and energy costs. The key focus will be whether elevated energy prices are inflating import values and compressing underlying trade surplus dynamics.Chinese Inflation (Mon):China’s April CPI and PPI data are expected to show easing headline inflation, with CPI forecast at about 0.8-1.0% Y/Y versus 1.0% previously as post-Lunar New Year demand fades. Core CPI is expected to remain subdued at about 1.1-1.2%, underscoring weak domestic demand. In contrast, PPI is expected to strengthen further into positive territory at about 1.5-1.9% Y/Y on rising energy and commodity costs, extending the recent rebound from deflation.BoJ SOO (Tue):The BoJ Summary of Opinions will be key to confirming how deep the hawkish shift really is after the 6–3 split. Focus is on whether dissent was forceful and if support for a hike is broadening beyond the three hawks, especially given the upgraded inflation outlook and persistent JPY weakness. Markets will also watch for any divergence from Ueda’s cautious presser—i.e. signs the board is more urgent than the messaging.US CPI (Tue), PPI (Wed):CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% M/M in April (prev. 0.9%), while the core rate is seen rising 0.4% M/M (prev. 0.2%). PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% M/M (cooling from the prev. 0.5%). The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast gauge is tracking April CPI at 0.45% M/M, versus 0.42% M/M in March, and the core rate at 0.21%, unchanged from March. Annual rates are tracking at 3.56% Y/Y in April and the core rate at 2.56% Y/Y (the BLS reported annual core inflation of 2.6% in March, for reference). The data follows a hot March CPI report, which showed a pickup in consumer prices, with the annual rate rising to its highest since May 2024 at 3.3% Y/Y. The rise was driven by energy prices, which increased 10.9% M/M in March, led by a 21.2% jump in gasoline. Traders will continue to focus on whether the war-driven energy shock is feeding into inflation and consumer demand. Fed officials are now firmly focused on inflation amid a stable labour market. At the April FOMC meeting, three dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari and Logan) voted against including any easing bias in the statement, arguing that inflation risks had risen enough for the Fed to keep all options open, including holding rates for longer or even hiking, rather than signalling an easing bias. Some analysts suggested this might be a message to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, who has previously endorsed lower rates and tighter balance sheet policy. Another key shift in the April statement was on inflation, with the line that inflation “remains somewhat elevated” replaced with “elevated”, and the Fed attributing this to the recent surge in global energy prices, a tweak judged to be a hawkish tilt. Elsewhere, the April data will include one-off rent and OER CPI index adjustments after last Autumn’s government shutdown shortfall; Barclays says this would likely give core inflation a one-off boost of around 10bps.BoC Minutes (Wed):The BoC left rates on hold at 2.25%, the lower end of its estimated neutral range, as expected. The bank reiterated that it is looking through the war's immediate impact on inflation, but will not allow higher energy prices to become persistent inflation. On trade, the BoC said it may need to cut the policy rate further to support growth if the US imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada. Conversely, Macklem said a series of hikes may be needed if higher energy prices after the conflict prove long-lasting. The minutes will be watched for how committee members view the two-sided risks, how they plan to navigate the uncertainty and whether any members favour action in either direction, or whether there is broad support for the wait-and-see approach.US Retail Sales (Thu):The previous retail sales report for March showed a 1.7% M/M rise, driven by gasoline, while core sales printed at 1.9% M/M. The Chicago Fed’s CARTS advance retail trade update suggests ex-autos retail sales will rise 1.1% M/M in April (vs prior 0.6%), and 0.3% M/M when adjusted for inflation. Analysts say this could point to consumer resilience in the face of the energy shock, which is expected to weigh on disposable income ahead. Note, the CARTS data will be updated a day before the April retail sales release. Continuum Economics expects headline retail sales to rise 0.7% M/M, with ex-autos up 0.9% M/M and ex-autos/gas up 0.5%. It notes gasoline prices increased further in April, but at an easier pace than in March, while auto sales appear to have seen a modest recent decline, though they still appear healthy. “Higher gasoline prices pose risk to real disposable incomes, which has underperformed consumer spending in the last four quarters, though only marginally in Q1,” Continuum writes, adding that “tax cuts and higher tax refunds are providing some support to consumers.”Trump-Xi Meeting (Thu-Fri):US President Trump will fly to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi on the 14th and 15th of May. The two leaders will cover several topics, including the Middle East conflict, trade relations, Taiwan, AI and agriculture. On the Middle East, Trump and China have both suggested they want the war wrapped up before the meeting, which would likely allow the two to focus on other areas. However, Polymarket prices a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by 13th May at just a 17% probability. China said it wants a resolution, noting the visit is set to go ahead but that the conflict has caused uncertainty over planning and lowered expectations. There were also reports that China is refusing to comply with some US sanctions, having apparently ordered its oil refineries that purchase crude from Tehran not to comply with or enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil - something USTR Greer said will be discussed at the upcoming meeting. The two will also likely discuss China's oil purchases, with President Trump noting he offered to let China send oil ships to the US. Trump is reportedly inviting several CEOs on his trip, from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Exxon (XOM), Boeing (BA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Blackstone (BX), Citigroup (C), and Visa (V). On trade, USTR Greer highlighted that China should be an important buyer of US agriculture and medical devices. China has also said it is prepared to work toward improving relations with the US.This article originally appeared on NewsquawkWeek In ReviewOPEC+ (Sun):The 3 May meeting—the first without the UAE—was framed as “business-as-usual”, with the remaining core producers agreeing a modest ~188k bpd June increase broadly as expected. In reality, the move is largely symbolic given Strait of Hormuz disruption is constraining actual exports. The key objective is signalling continuity—Saudi/Russia maintaining control and continuing the unwind of cuts. The UAE exit was the real shift, removing a major producer from quota discipline as it targets ~5mln bpd capacity and leverages Fujairah to bypass Hormuz.RBA Review (Tue):RBA raised the cash rate 25bps to 4.35% on 5 May, its third straight hike, reinforcing a firm tightening stance. The Bank sees inflation peaking around 4.8% in June and only returning to target by mid-2027, with the Middle East shock adding a stagflationary impulse via energy costs. The vote was at 8–1, showing stronger internal alignment. However, Bullock’s presser leaned slightly softer, highlighting “space to watch” after recent hikes and cautioning that fiscal support could complicate the inflation fight.Swiss Inflation Review (Tue):An in-line Y/Y at 0.6% and a marginally cooler-than-expected M/M for April. No significant reaction to the series, with the inflation drivers still petrol, diesel and heating oil. Somewhat notably, though unsurprisingly, air transport also saw an uptick. For the SNB, the upward bias to CPI removes any residual risk of a near-term move into negative territory from the current ZLB. Furthermore, the Y/Y figure still holding in the lower half of the 0-2% inflation target means that there is no need for a hawkish response, at this stage at least.US ISM Services PMI (Tue):ISM Services PMI fell to 53.6 in April from 54.0, a bigger decline than the expected 53.8. Employment rose to 48.0 (exp. 48.3, prev. 45.2), while prices stayed at 70.7, below the forecast of 73.7. Business activity rose to 55.9 (prev. 53.9), but new orders slipped to 53.5 (exp. 57.3, prev. 60.6). Supplier deliveries and new export orders increased M/M, while inventories and backlog of orders declined, though all remained above 50. The report said there were other signs of economic strength, with exports and imports expanding for two straight months for the first time since September/October 2024. Commentary focused mainly on the impact of and adjustments to the Iran war, and the expected flow-through of higher oil prices. Oxford Economics said the slight decline in the headline was consistent with moderate economic growth in the coming quarter, as mentions of fuel surcharges and uncertainty related to the war rose. OxEco expects the economy to hold up, but sees some of the energy price shock feeding through to core inflation over the coming quarters, keeping core PCE inflation close to 3% for most of the year.US Treasury Refunding Review (Wed):Auction sizes were left unchanged, in line with expectations, while the Treasury also maintained its forward guidance, continuing to state that “based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” Some desks expected a tweak to the language, with Barclays looking for guidance to shift to “at least the next few quarters.” Although no change was made at this meeting, the TBAC minutes imply the guidance could be adjusted as soon as next quarter. For full review, please click here.Norges Bank Review (Thu):A 25bps hike to 4.25% in line with the guidance from the March MPR that there would be a hike "at one of the forthcoming meetings". Note, desks were split heading into the announcement on whether the hike would occur in May or if they would wait for the next forecast meeting in June. Pertinently, the statement suggests that the "monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially" since March; as a reminder, the March MPR had an end-2026 policy rate of 4.35%. As such, the statement implies around a 40% chance of another 25bps hike by end-2026.Riksbank Review (Thu):Held the policy rate at 1.75% as expected. The statement made clear that they are taking a wait-and-see approach, with Governor Thedeen thereafter saying they are taking a cautious approach to policy guidance. Unsurprisingly, much of the focus was on the inflation front, outlining that CPIF remains well below the Bank’s own target and the disinflation process was evident in March and April. Overall, the Riksbank has the economic space to wait-and-see before making a decision to alter policy.Banxico Review (Thu):Banxico cut rates by 25bps as expected in a 3-2 vote split, with Heath and Borja once again opting to hold rates. However, the guidance from Banxico was updated to imply that rates are now at the terminal level; “Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate”. It also described the latest rate cut as a conclusion to the easing cycle that began in March 2024. Inflation forecasts were little changed throughout the forecast horizon, with inflation still expected to return to target in Q2 27.UK Local Election Review (Thu):The count continues, but the results thus far show a significant shift away from the traditional main parties of Labour and Conservatives, significantly in favour of Reform and to a much lesser extent Greens. A Labour loss that is historic, but not at the existential level that some had projected. As such, PM Starmer has received a stay of execution for now, but calls for him to leave and discussions about the mechanism and timeframe of his departure, and who should replace him, will undoubtedly increase. Interestingly, results around Greater Manchester are pro-Reform, which could impair the path back to parliament for Burnham, as a Greater Manchester Mayoral election would likely go to Reform. In terms of reaction, Gilts and Sterling saw modest pressure on the shift to Reform, however the assessment that the losses are likely to be in the range of 1.0-1.5k council seats vs fears of 1.5-2.0k for Labour, and as Starmer pledged to stay on as PM, provided some near-term stability to market participants and allowed both Gilts and GBP to climb and outperform peers. Note, results will continue to print in the next few hours, with a handful of key areas due around 16:00BST and 18:00BST.Canadian Jobs (Fri):Canada lost 17.7k jobs in April, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.9% from 6.7%, against expectations for it to be unchanged. The weak report showed full-time employment fell 46.7k, while part-time employment rose 29k. The participation rate edged up to 65.0% from 64.9%, while average hourly wage growth eased to 4.8% from 5.1%. Participants were watching the report for signs of how the Canadian labour market and the economy were holding up against higher energy prices and US tariffs. As a reminder, the BoC MPR said a range of indicators pointed to some slack in the labour market, while labour force participation had declined. Although economic activity remains strong, a further labour market slowdown could weigh on the Canadian economy, with tariff hikes and a softer jobs market already squeezing real incomes. Oxford Economics think the BoC will remain on hold for all of 2026, and the job report is unlikely to pull them from the sidelines. Continued softness in the labour market should give the Bank confidence that higher energy prices won’t lead to persistently higher inflation, and allow it to remain patient while assessing developments on trade policy and global commodity prices.US Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri):Overall, it was a strong US jobs report. The US economy added 115k jobs in April, above the 73k forecast but below the elevated 178k in March, which was revised up to 185k. Job gains were seen in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. The participation rate dipped slightly to 61.8% from 61.9%, while the U-6 unemployment rate rose to 8.2% from 8%. On wages, earnings rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, maintaining the prior pace from March. The Y/Y rate, however, accelerated to 3.6% from 3.5%. For the Fed, the report allows the central bank to keep its focus on the inflation side of the mandate, particularly with ongoing upside risks around the US/Iran conflict. Looking ahead, however, many are aware of downside risks to employment, particularly if the war drags on and costs for businesses rise further. Pantheon Macroeconomics write that “April’s data bolster the case for thinking the labor market is convalescing. But the continued weakness of surveys of hiring intentions and the developing pressure on firms’ costs from the surge in energy prices suggests it is too soon to sound the all-clear.”This article originally appeared on Newsquawk This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Bulls Repair the 80K Zone, But 82.8K Remains the Key Breakout GateLast updated: May 9, 2026 Market bias: Mildly bullish repair, not confirmed bullish expansionBitcoin is trading with a constructive short-term bias after buyers defended the repaired value area near 80,000. The current BTC price forecast improves while price holds above 79,000-79,500, but a stronger bullish signal still requires acceptance above the 82,500-82,800 resistance zone.Key takeaways for crypto traders and investors at investingLive.com Bitcoin has shifted from prior downside damage into a repair phase. Buyers are increasingly defending the 80,000-81,300 accepted-value zone. The main upside gate remains 82,500-82,800. A daily close above 82,800 would strengthen the bullish case. A daily close below 79,000-79,500 would weaken the repair structure. U.S. crypto regulation headlines may become a short-term volatility driver as the Senate Banking Committee is expected to review the CLARITY Act on May 14, 2026. What is the current Bitcoin technical outlook?Bitcoin is no longer showing clean bearish control. The stronger read is that BTC is in a credible bullish repair phase, but not yet in a completed bullish takeover.The crypto market is showing renewed resilience as broader economic and geopolitical signals begin to stabilize. Sentiment is lifting following investingLive’s America’s Market News Wrap, which highlighted surprising upside in US jobs growth, alongside reports that the US and Iran could resume talks next week. While my last short-term bearish prediction successfully reached all profit targets, I recently cautioned Inga on social media to "don't bank on a prolonged Bitcoin decline." Historically, once the specific targets of the tradeCompass methodology are hit, the downward move is often exhausted, clearing the path for the next leg up.The important distinction is that buyers have repaired value near 80,000, while sellers have failed to push accepted value back into the prior lower range. However, the market has not yet confirmed acceptance above 82,500-82,800, which remains the key level for a more aggressive bullish continuation signal.In my experience, this type of structure often appears before a larger directional decision: buyers are improving the auction underneath price, but the market still needs proof that resistance is being accepted, not just tested.Bitcoin’s price sentiment score at investingLive.com so far this weekendBitcoin’s price sentiment score is now +3 on a -10 to +10 scale, signaling a mildly bullish repair phase: buyers are improving control near key support, but the move is not yet a confirmed bullish takeover until resistance is clearly accepted.Bitcoin Testing Structural Break: Regression Strength and Potential Trend AccelerationRegression Channel Mechanics: Unlike a standard parallel channel drawn between two peaks and two valleys, a linear regression channel uses a mathematical "best fit" line (the midline) to minimize the distance between all closing prices in the selected period. It represents the mean value of the trend; even if the outer lines aren't perfectly parallel in a visual sense, they signify standard deviations from that mean. This remains relevant because it objectively defines the current "fair value" path and identifies overbought or oversold extremes based on historical price distribution rather than subjective line-drawing.The Failed Bear Flag Thesis: While many traders view an ascending channel following a sharp drop as a "bear flag," the context here is shifting. A bear flag typically breaks downward to continue the previous crash; however, price has already reclaimed the red diagonal resistance—a multi-month trendline—and is now hugging the upper boundary of the regression channel. An upside breakout here invalidates the "flag" entirely, signaling that the bulls have successfully absorbed all selling pressure from the previous leg down.The Significance of the Red Resistance Flip: The crossing of the red downward-sloping line is a major structural shift. In technical analysis, once a significant resistance line is breached and price holds above it, that line often transitions into support. By staying within the regression channel and attacking the upper pane, Bitcoin is using that old resistance as a springboard, suggesting the path of least resistance has flipped from down to up.Momentum Over Confirmation: While "confirmation" (like a daily close well above the channel) is the gold standard, the bullish bias is found in the sequence of higher lows within the channel. Each time price touched the lower red pane of the regression, it was aggressively bought up. This persistent demand at higher price levels indicates "accumulation under cover," where buyers are becoming increasingly impatient, often leading to a violent move upward before traditional confirmation can even occur.Volume and Volatility Contraction: Notice how the price action has become "tighter" near the top of the channel. This tightening, or compression, often precedes an expansion. Since this compression is happening at the top of a range rather than the bottom, it suggests a "short squeeze" may be brewing, as those betting on a channel rejection are forced to cover their positions, further fueling an upside breakoutWhat are the key Bitcoin support and resistance levels?What this means: Accepted value refers to the price area where the market is spending time and building volume. When accepted value moves higher, it often signals that buyers are gaining control beneath the surface.Why is Bitcoin’s 80K area important?The 80,000 area has become the center of the current battle. Recent pullbacks have not created a clean return to the lower 76,000-78,000 zone. That matters because bearish pressure is becoming less efficient.Sellers have generated pullbacks, but they have not restored downside control. Buyers, meanwhile, have continued to defend higher value near 80,000 and have pushed price back toward the upper resistance zone.That is why the current Bitcoin forecast is cautiously constructive. The market is not showing a clean breakout yet, but it is also not behaving like a market where sellers are in full control.What would confirm a bullish Bitcoin breakout?The bullish case strengthens if BTC can close above 82,800 and then hold above the former resistance area on a retest.A stronger bullish confirmation would include:If those conditions develop, the Bitcoin outlook would likely shift from “repair” toward “bullish continuation,” with buyers showing stronger control of the auction.What would weaken the Bitcoin price forecast?The bullish repair weakens if BTC loses 80,000, and it becomes more vulnerable if price closes below 79,000-79,500 with renewed negative momentum.The key bearish scenario is not just a price dip. It would require sellers to push accepted value lower again. If BTC falls below 79,000-79,500 and volume builds beneath that zone, the market would be signaling that the recent repair failed.How could the CLARITY Act affect Bitcoin?Regulatory headlines may become more important next week. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the CLARITY Act on May 14, 2026, a bill designed to clarify whether crypto assets fall under securities or commodities regulation and to define the roles of U.S. financial regulators. That matters for Bitcoin because markets often react before the legal outcome is final. In my experience, previous major crypto regulation events have often produced an initial volatility spike, followed by a more durable move only after traders understand whether the rule change improves institutional access, limits activity, or leaves uncertainty unresolved.The balanced view is this:Reuters reported that the bill still faces obstacles, including Democratic opposition and debate around anti-money-laundering concerns, stablecoin rules, and political issues. That means traders should avoid assuming passage is guaranteed. Bitcoin forecast: bullish repair, but not full takeoverThe current Bitcoin price forecast is mildly bullish, but not aggressively bullish.Buyers are repairing the chart and defending the 80,000 zone better than sellers are controlling the downside. That supports a constructive bias while BTC remains above 79,000-79,500.However, the bullish case is not complete until Bitcoin proves acceptance above 82,500-82,800. Until then, the cleaner interpretation is:Bitcoin is building a credible bullish repair, but the market has not yet confirmed a full bullish breakout.For traders, the practical roadmap is straightforward. Above 82,800, the bullish case improves. Below 79,000-79,500, the repair weakens. Between those levels, Bitcoin remains in a high-stakes value battle near 80,000-81,300.Readers are welcome to join the free investingLive Telegram channel for possible market updates, trade ideas, and real-time discussion here: https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US April non-farm payrolls +115K vs +62K expectedCanada employment change -17.7K vs 15.0K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% expectedUS and Iran could resume talks next week -- reportECB's Nagel: ECB will do whatever necessary to him he energy price surgeIran: From now on actions of the US maritime blockade will be met with military responseFed's Goolsbee: inflation has not been great. Job market is pretty much stableECB's Legarde: Higher energy costs will push up input pricesUniversity of Michigan sentiment for May 48.2 versus 49.5 estimateMarkets:WTI crude oil down 7 cents to $94.76US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.36%Gold up $30 to $4716S&P 500 up 0.8%GBP leads, USD lagsThe tech optimism is at a fever pitch as the Nasdaq climbed for the sixth straight week, adding 30% in that time and another 5% this week. Chip names continued to soar as Micron gained 15% and Intel 14% among others. The enthusiasm for AI is grossly overshadowing any worries about oil prices or rate hikes.On oil prices, they finished the day flat after climbing earlier. A late WSJ report indicated progress on a 14-point one-page plan to lay out the parameters for a month of negotiations on nuclear, sanctions and other problems. The day started with US attacks on parts of Iran but Trump dismissed them as minor and that was enough for the rest of the market to forget it.In terms of rate hikes, a second consecutive strong jobs report highlights how Kevin Warsh will have a tough time making the case for rate cuts this year. The ongoing boom in stock markets also adds to US consumer spending firepower. The lone dovish parts of the report were slightly softer than expected wage growth and another tick lower in labor force participation, which is down more than 1 percentage point since 2024.The US dollar softened across the board but it was more about war optimism than the jobs report. The Canadian dollar gained on USD but struggled elsewhere as April jobs were poor and included a further rise in the unemployment rate. Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

On the day:S&P 500 +0.85%Nasdaq Comp +1.7%DJIA flatRussell 2000 +0.75%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%On the week:S&P 500 +2.3%Nasdaq Comp +4.5%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +1.7%Toronto TSX Comp +0.5%The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs today. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—adding 115,000 jobs in April versus the 55,000 expected—overshadowed geopolitical fears, keeping investors heavily invested in the ongoing tech boom. This was the sixth straight week of gains, the longest run since Oct 2024.AI infrastructure demand continues to fuel semiconductor stocks. Micron shares popped 10% today, while Qualcomm jumped 9%, logging its fourth consecutive day of gains. The broader semiconductor index soared as hyperscalers continue raising their capital expenditure guidance.On the downside, cloud security provider Cloudflare took a massive hit today, tumbling 22%. The sharp drop came after the company issued a much weaker-than-expected Q2 sales forecast and announced it would be cutting approximately one-fifth of its global workforce.Fluence Energy was one of the day’s biggest single-stock winners, surging nearly 40%. The energy storage company crushed its quarterly earnings report, on growing demand for grid-scale energy storage products.Intel shares surged 14% following a Q1 earnings beat driven by a 22% jump in Data Center and AI revenue. Sentiment was further boosted by a major new foundry contract for Elon Musk's Terafab Initiative and reports of preliminary manufacturing talks with Apple.Akamai shares rocketed 28% higher after announcing a historic seven-year, $1.8 billion cloud infrastructure contract with a leading frontier AI company, reportedly Anthropic. This massive deal overshadowed the company’s solid Q1 earnings, highlighting Akamai's growing role in powering enterprise AI workloads. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is out with the latest leak on US-Iran negotiations:Talks could resume as early as next weekIran remains against transferring nuclear materialIran and the US working with mediators to formulate a 14-point MOU that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the warThe US would 'wind back' its blockade during those 30 daysDetails remain unresolvedWe continue to wait for war news but the market seems to have moved on. The Nasdaq is up for the sixth straight week and higher by more than 5% this week. Today we have big gains across tech and the S&P 500 is also up 0.8%.Optimism is in the air and it's been an incredible bull run from the bottom at the end of March. One of the non-war catalysts was the Claude Mythos leaks and that was followed by incredible capex numbers from hyperscalers. All that has reaffirmed optimism around AI and how transformational it will be. It's turned into something of a mania as stocks are bid each day and chip-related names make incredible gains.The US dollar is softer today and Treasury yields are lower. That's despite a stronger non-farm payrolls print. The upside from that was likely tempered by a soft read on wages in the jobs report and war optimism.The caveat is that it's Friday and early in the war, we saw plenty of Friday night surprises. That angst isn't affecting stocks much at the open though, with the S&P 500 in striking distance from the highs of the day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

WTI crude oil finished modestly higher today despite the ongoing exchange of fire between Iran and the USA. The market is waiting for the next steps in negotiations and whether both sides are able to open the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate details of any lasting peace.What I will notice is that long-dated oil prices are rising and converging towards short-dated prices. December WTI was up $1.50 today to $79.85 and I think it's more indicative of the market's broader view of oil prices.It's obviously risen to $80 from $60 but for the broader market, that seems to be okay. Yes, it's a 33% gain year-over-year but $80 is a tolerable level, and we've been there before plenty of times. The market is saying that consumers can absorb it and history is on that side.Of course, that all assumes that Trump will get the Strait opened in relatively short order. Earlier this week we saw $84 and the only real difference today is some political jawboning and the ongoing leaks about peace. Those leaks are all coming from the US side with the Iranian said continuing to emphasize core demands that aren't being met.I'd guess the market is pricing in a full reopening within two weeks but that continues to roll as time goes forward. If at some point negotiations reach a true deadlock, then we could see a rapid repricing. At the moment, the market sees that as remote, despite the obvious problems with negotiations.The bottom line is that the market thinks that Trump wont' resume a true shooting war. We see that across assets and it's been a wonderful trade for the past six weeks. The obvious caveat in the short-term is that things tend to go wrong on the weekends in Iran. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking back below a key ceiling/floor zone between 0.7221 and 0.7227. That bearish break helped push the pair down toward the next swing area support between 0.7193 and 0.7200. In early Asian-Pacific trading, buyers leaned against that support zone for several hours, helping stabilize the price before the pair rotated back to the upside.During the European session, the AUDUSD reclaimed the former swing area between 0.7221 and 0.7227, and importantly, the price has been able to stay above that zone into North American trading. That move back above the old resistance area shifts the short-term bias back in favor of the buyers, with the pair now trading near 0.7240.The next upside targets are the highs from earlier in the week. Yesterday’s high reached 0.7263, while Wednesday’s high extended to 0.7277. Recall from yesterday’s post that the 0.7277 area represents a key resistance zone dating back to 2022, where prior swing highs came in between 0.7265 and 0.7283. Earlier this week, sellers leaned against that historical ceiling with risk defined and limited, helping stall the rally within that resistance cluster.For now, buyers are back more in control while the price remains above the 0.7221–0.7227 area. A break above the key 0.7283 resistance level would open the door for further upside momentum and increase the bullish bias going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECBs Nagel;Will do whatever is needed to contain energy price jumpsECB is highly alert to increasing inflation risks. ECB will do whatever necessary to curb energy price surge. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Soon after the better-than-expected US jobs report in the worse than expected Canadian jobs report, I posted the following brief commentary and chart:The key resistance zone overhead was defined by the 38.2% retracement level, the swing area between 1.37089 and 1.37149, and the 100-day moving average near 1.3720. The price pushed higher into that resistance cluster, reaching a session high of 1.3710 before rotating back to the downside. The current price has now returned to the same area where the earlier post was made, reflecting the market’s inability to sustain momentum above the key technical ceiling.On the downside, support now comes in near 1.3660. A move below that level would likely disappoint buyers and could lead to a deeper rotation lower, with traders then targeting the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages near 1.3631 over time.On a move back to the upside, buyers still need to break above the aforementioned resistance targets to regain more control from the sellers. Since the beginning of April, sellers have largely dictated the price action. Although this week’s move above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages was a modest positive development for buyers, the more important hurdles remain the 38.2% retracement level and the 100-day moving average. A sustained move above those levels would be needed to shift the technical bias more firmly back in favor of the buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

An Iranian national security member is on the wires saying: From now on the actions of the US for maritime blockade will be met with Iran's military response.America should put some escorts for its destroyers so that they can save their forces if they thinkAlthough the comments are reportedly from an Iranian national security member, the question of credibility is questionable. Such is the fog from a war.MORE from IRAN:The national security committee of Iran's parliament says no agreement is possible with WashingtonStocks remain higher with the NASDAQ up 1.32% and the S&P up 0.75% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing mostly lower:German DAX, -1.44%. France's CAC -1.09%UK's FTSE 100 -0.43%Spain's Ibex -0.95%Italy's FTSE MIB unchangedFor the trading week:German DAX, +0.06%France's CAC -0.03%UK's FTSE 100 -1.26%Spain's Ibex +0.61%Italy's FTSE MIB +2.16% As London/European traders headfor the exits, the US stock indices remain higher led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 1.32%. The S&P index is up 0.71% while the Dow Industrial Average is near unchanged. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The job market is pretty much stable.There is not a lot of evidence that job market is falling apart.Inflation has not been great and is going the wrong way.There is not a lot of evidence of the job market deterioration. Inflation rises not just energy, was elevated before war. We stop making progress on inflation last yearIn the last few months as I started to go back up rather than downFed has to keep an eye on inflation situation.Everything should always be on the table for Fed. There is an argument that these are one time inflation shocks. Trying to figure out if energy shock will lastNot a big fan of using words to jawbone policy decisions.Worries about markets trying to price in AI productivity gains before they arriveThe problem with calling inflation a series of “one-time shocks” is that the shocks keep coming — one after another. Prices jump higher, but they rarely come back down. If the increase is truly temporary and caused by some artificial disruption, then when the shock fades, where’s the negative shock that brings prices back to normal? It almost never comes.A dinner for two at an Italian restaurant — two glasses of wine and a shared dessert — $258. That’s the new baseline. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are on pace for record closing levels after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The NASDAQ index is up 1.26% on the day while the S&P index is up 0.80%. The Dow Industrial Average is up 0.20%. For the week, the NASDAQ index is on pace for a 4% gain for the week, while the S&P is up 2.25% currently. Some oversizing gains were Datadog and Micron. Intel added another 16.5% . For the year, the stock of the once beleaguered chip manufacturer is up 213%. AMD is up 20.37% this week and up 102% for the year.How have the Magnificent 7 performed in 2026:Alphabet Inc.: +27.95% Amazon.com: +17.99% NVIDIA: +15.61% Apple Inc.: +8.23% Tesla: -5.19% Meta Platforms: -7.33% Microsoft: -14.10%The major indices in the US have been led by the Russell 2000 (the Russell 2000 reached a new all-time high this week at 2888.61 but is below that level currently). iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +15.18% YTD Nasdaq Composite: +12.45% YTD S&P 500: +8.03% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.43% YTDThe gains this year come despite the War in Iran and the tariffs. Increased productivity is helping the charge to highs. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Technology sector climbs as healthcare stumblesToday’s stock market is witnessing a noteworthy divergence as tech giants lead a rally, while healthcare stocks slump. A closer look at the heatmap reveals dynamic shifts across various sectors, providing insightful takeaways for investors seeking to navigate these changes.? Tech sector resurgence: Leading the chargeThe technology sector stands out with notable gains driven by strong performances from key players. Apple (AAPL) surged by 2.25% and Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 1.69%. These gains reflect growing investor confidence in tech’s growth potential and resilience.In contrast, Microsoft (MSFT) dipped 1.34%, possibly reflecting a temporary bout of profit-taking after recent gains. Broadcom (AVGO) also posted solid gains of 2.10%.? Healthcare sector strugglesCountering tech’s positive momentum, the healthcare sector faces challenges. Eli Lilly (LLY) fell by 1.79% and Gilead Sciences (GILD) dropped 1.98%, indicating investor caution amid sector-specific pressures or profit-taking. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also faced minor declines, dipping 0.21%.✅ Consumer cyclical and defensive sectors show stabilityAmazon (AMZN) managed a steady climb, increasing by 0.38%, reinforcing positive sentiment in the consumer cyclical sector. Similarly, the consumer defensive sector showed resilience with Walmart (WMT) rising by 0.61% and PepsiCo (PEP) ticking up 0.54%.? Financial sector mixed signalsThe financial sector painted a mixed picture. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) saw a slight decrease of 0.24%, while Citigroup (C) gained 1.12%, suggesting varying investor expectations and responses to economic signals and interest rate outlooks.? Strategic recommendationsGiven today’s market dynamics, investors should consider bolstering their holdings in technology stocks, benefiting from the current momentum while staying vigilant for any shifts. Monitoring healthcare for signs of stabilization or recovery could present buying opportunities at discounted prices.For a balanced strategy in uncertain times, diversifying across defensive and cyclical sectors could provide added stability and growth potential. Staying attuned to real-time market updates and insights at InvestingLive.com will be essential for navigating these market movements effectively. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

ECBs Legarde is speaking and says: climbing energy costs will push up input prices.Price increases may then be passed to consumer.We should be well-placed to react, when neededCurrent rates: The ECB at their last meeting last week held rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance to assess the impact of the Iran/Middle East war on inflation and growthKey driver of uncertainty: The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks to economic growth, with a material near-term impact through higher energy prices. Market pricing for the next move: Markets are fully pricing in three ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially arriving as early as June — a notable shift driven by the energy price shock. Commentary has been more hawkishECB's own stance: The ECB is following a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to a particular rate path. Its decisions will be based on the inflation outlook, incoming data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Inflation outlook: In the ECB's March baseline projections, headline inflation is seen averaging 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028 — revised up compared to December, largely because energy prices will be higher due to the Middle East conflict. Growth: Staff expect economic growth to average 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028 — a downward revision reflecting the global effects of the war on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence. In short, the ECB is in a tricky spot: energy-driven inflation is pushing market expectations toward hikes, while growth risks pull the other way. The June meeting will be closely watched, especially with new staff projections expected. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 49.8 Sentiment index 48.2 versus 49.5 estimateCurrent conditions 47.8 versus 52.0 estimateexpectations index 48.5 versus 48.1 estimate1-year inflation expectations 4.5% versus 4.7% last month.5-year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.5% last monthThe numbers are at multi-decade lows and reflective of the economic issues caused by the Iran/US war.From Univ of Michigan Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022. While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war, along with all 2024 readings and the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.