Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% in surprise unanimous vote as Middle East conflict upends outlook
MPC drops easing guidance as markets price in rate hikes for first time since 2023
The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% today in a unanimous 9-0 vote, the first time the MPC has voted unanimously on rates since September 2021, and a markedly more hawkish outcome than the 7-2 split most economists had expected.
The decision itself was widely anticipated. What caught markets off guard was the unity. Even the committee’s most dovish members chose to hold fire, signalling that the Middle East conflict has fundamentally changed the policy calculus.
Critically, the MPC dropped the forward guidance it had issued in February, that “Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further”, declining to repeat the line in its March statement. In its place, the committee said it was assessing both the inflation risk from higher energy prices and the drag on growth those prices would cause, and that it “stands ready to act as necessary.”
A hawkish surprise
Markets reacted swiftly. Pricing for BoE rate hikes in 2026 jumped to 65 basis points immediately after the announcement, up from 39 basis points beforehand. Two-year gilt yields surged 33 basis points on the day to 4.43%, the highest level since January 2025, extending a sell-off that had begun earlier on reports of further damage to gas infrastructure in Qatar.
Sterling briefly strengthened against both the dollar and the euro following the announcement.
CMC Markets: a “cautiously optimistic” hold
Chris Cheverall, Head of UK at CMC Markets, said the unanimous hold reflects a pragmatic stance from the MPC rather than a pivot toward tightening.
“Before the outbreak of the war, inflation was expected to fall closer to the 2% CPI target,” Cheverall said. “While the conflict in the Middle East may not be the primary driver of the decision to hold interest rates at 3.75%, tensions in the region are a consideration thanks to the sustained rise in oil and gas prices and increased uncertainty.”
Cheverall characterised the decision as “a cautiously optimistic assessment of the UK growth outlook,” adding that holding steady “suggests the continuation of a more balanced approach, underscoring the view that policy is now firmly in restrictive territory, while avoiding the risk of overtightening into a weakening macroeconomic backdrop.”
“By holding steady at 3.75%, the MPC is choosing to maintain a firm stance and buy time to avoid overreacting to short-term data,” he said. “Market focus now turns to the coming months, and what the eventual impact of the conflict and resulting energy crisis will be.”
Divided in tone, united in vote
While the vote was unanimous, the commentary from individual MPC members revealed a spectrum of views on what comes next.
Chief Economist Huw Pill, who has consistently voted against recent rate cuts, said second-round inflationary effects from the energy shock “remain substantial” and that he is “ready to act” if longer-term inflation pressures emerge.
At the other end of the committee, Alan Taylor, one of the most vocal supporters of easing, pushed back on the idea that a hike is imminent, saying he currently sees “a high bar to hiking” given the massive uncertainty around energy prices.
Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden went further, saying he would have voted for a 25bp cut had it not been for the Middle East conflict, suggesting the underlying economic case for easing remains intact once the geopolitical fog clears.
The economic backdrop
The MPC is navigating what amounts to a stagflationary bind. GDP was flat in January, with Bank staff estimating underlying quarterly growth of just 0.1-0.2% in Q1. The unemployment rate stands at 5.2%, and labour demand remains weak.
At the same time, Bank staff projections suggest the direct contribution of energy prices to CPI inflation in Q3 2026 will be around three-quarters of a percentage point, pushing the headline rate to an estimated 3.5%, well above the 2% target the Bank had expected to hit by mid-year.
Prior to the Middle East conflict, disinflation had been progressing. Private sector regular pay growth had slowed to 3.3% in the three months to January, below the Bank’s February forecast. That progress has now been overtaken by events.
What comes next
The MPC’s next meeting concludes on 30 April, and the committee indicated it expects to have more information by then to assess the situation. For now, the message is clear: the hurdle to hiking is high, but the path back to cutting has become significantly longer.
As Governor Bailey put it, monetary policy cannot reverse the energy shock, but it can respond to the risk that it becomes embedded in UK inflation expectations. The question for markets is whether “respond” eventually means tighten, or simply wait.
The post Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% in surprise unanimous vote as Middle East conflict upends outlook first appeared on LeapRate | Online Trading Industry News, Broker Intelligence & Fintech Analysis.
Read More