Traders are obsessed with trends.Yet history shows that markets only trend about 30% of the time — the remaining 70% is spent consolidating sideways. This is valid for almost every asset class since the dawn of time.But consolidation don't necessary translates to frustrating, choppy action.In 2025, the US Dollar has been at the center of global debate.After months of weakness driven by tariff fears, slower US growth, and fiscal uncertainty, a bottom seems to have formed since July — confirmed by the pre-FOMC retest in mid-September.But bottom doesn’t always mean reversal.The much-discussed de-dollarization trend, for now, looks overstated.Despite with less conviction than before, the world still largely trades in USD.Instead of a sharp recovery, the greenback appears stuck in a large range as traders await new catalysts — whether from tariff policy, an unexpected change to the Fed's stance, or new global economic trends.This could have important implications for FX markets in all currencies.Let's take a close look at the Dollar Index (DXY) to spot what the range looks like and its key levels of interest. Read More:Markets Today: China CPI Struggles, Gold Breached $4200/oz & FTSE 100 Retreats. US Earnings & Central Bank Speakers AheadThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowDollar Index mulit-timeframe analysis and levelsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index recently broke the 99.00 handle, having done so for the first time since end-July.However, with the ongoing uncertainty in markets, it seems that participants are not rushing to bid the greenback at its highs.Reacting to a key technical resistance right around 99.50, sellers have appeared to correct the pair slightly which decreases the technical outlook for a sudden breakout.Looking further out, the range is taking place between 97.00 to 100.00 with some +/- 500 pip precision.USD/CAD is trading right around 1.40, USD/JPY rejected its higher levels and the Swissie is proving resilient around 0.80.4H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The DXY is reacting particularly well to overbought and oversold levels in the RSI as of late, and the pattern seems to repeat through different timeframes, a sign confirming the rangebound action further.The 4H MA 50 (98.81) is still acting as support around the current 98.50 zone pivot restraining the selloff – Any breach below would confirm a re-entry in the range.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone (with 4H MA 50)98.00 Mini-SupportAugust Range support 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:Resistance 99.25 to 99.50Thursday Oct 9 highs 99.56100.00 Main resistance zone1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 1H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer, small mean-reversion buying is occuring at the 98.60 hourly support but with the RSI approaching neutral, reactions will be essential to monitor.Spot through the chart the ongoing mini-range between 98.60 and 99.50: Any break and close above/below should see continuation.If rangebound conditions persist, attempt to spot how this could contain the price action in other FX pairs in the waiting of more fundamental catalysts.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Published overnight, the latest UK labor market data has raised several red flags for the economy, signaling a possible shift in the broader macro outlook.Persistent inflation pressures constrain the Bank of England’s rate-cut path, leaving the BoE with the second-highest policy rate among OECD economies, just behind the Federal Reserve at 4%.(FYI Fed Chair Powell will be speaking here for those interested) Bank of England rate odds – October 14, 2025 – Source: LSEG If everything stays as it is, it would support the GBP (and has done so for the first half of 2025), but some challenges are appearing ahead.Earlier in the year, the pound’s strength was supported by solid employment and wage growth. However, the long-term effects of Brexit—notably on food inflation—are weighing on household spending, with a UK resilience now looking increasingly fragile.The latest jobs report showed slower pay growth and a weaker jobs market, reigniting stagflation concerns. The BoE now faces a dilemma: cutting rates risks fueling inflation, while holding steady could deepen the slowdown in employment and growth.This uncertainty is pressuring the pound.Let’s take a closer look at the technical levels and technical setups for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY to see how that translates to the charts Read More:WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowGBP/USD 8H Chart and levels GBP/USD 8H Chart – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Pound had fallen to new bi-monthly lows after the labor report but some contradicting price action is appearing ahead.A double bottom has show its face with some small bullish divergence. In the context of the ongoing broad US dollar selloff that started this morning, it will be interesting to see who wins the tug-of-weakness between the two.Now just crossing back above the 1.33 psychological level, back 600 pips from the overnight lows, there are two levels to keep you eyes on: To the upside, the 1.3350 to 1.3360 pre-data zone that comes at a confluence with the channel's upper bound. A break above could relaunch a more bullish GBP demand.A retest of the 1.3248 to 1.3260 daily lows would mark another sign of weakness for the pound: Watch for a break if traders bring GBP/USD back there again.In the current contradicting context, some rangebound conditions appear overall.Levels of interest for GBP/USD trading:Resistance Levels1.34 Support Zone now key pivot1.3350 to 1.3360 daily highs and channel upper boundPivot now resistance 1.3450 to 1.34650Main Resistance zone around 1.35Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.3260-1.331.32486 overnight lowsS2 1.3170 - 1.318501.3140 August 1 lowsGBP/JPY 8H Chart and levels GBP/JPY 8H Chart – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView In our most recent (now a bit out-dated) GBP/JPY analysis, we explored how the 200.00 level was defended by sellers which they had used as resistance to sell the pair.However, fundamentals changed quite largely for the yen throughout the beginning of August, particularly as it comes to Japanese politics: The newly elected LDP leader (governing party in Japan) has scared markets on a bad fiscal outlook which quickly undone any yen strength.This was a goldmine for GBP/JPY bulls. However, with the current state of markets, the balance seems to be tilting yet again.Growth sentiment is getting highly affected by the US-China trade tensions and this helps the safe-haven yen.As expected for the most volatile FX pair, there has been some intense swings in that period – Looking at the current course of action, the 8H momentum is hanging around neutral.Traders may look at the downward trendline to spot where flows can head next, with the 201.27 level acting as a key level to observe for upcoming action.Levels of interest for GBP/JPY trading:Support Levels:201.27 pre-Bank of Japan highs and overnight lows200.00 psychological levelMain Pivot (previously resistance) 199.00 to 200.00Intermediate Support 195.00 to 196.85Resistance Levels:July 2024 downward pivot 203.00Downward trendline at 202.95Post-Election highs 205.33208.120 July 2024 highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A degrading sentiment took a pause yesterday as participants digested Trump’s remarks over a prolonged North American trading weekend , which initially signaled a possible de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China. However, optimism looks short-lived.China reiterated its stance through multiple official channels — including its Commerce Ministry and state media — emphasizing its readiness to respond firmly to any tariff actions which comes after an initial Friday comment from Donald Trump in case you missed the story. Read More: US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now This is even leading to the EU and US looking to partner up again to fight the Chinese aggressive policy.Adding pressure, US ships began paying duties at Chinese ports today, a measure long anticipated but now officially in effect. This development has weighed heavily on global trade sentiment, extending the downtrend in Oil prices.With easing Middle East tensions and steady Russian supply to fund its war in Ukraine, Oil fundamentals remain pointed to the downside except for the advent any black swan event.WTI has now fallen below $60, and has been holding below the threshold since Trump's original post.Let’s dive into Oil spot charts to see whether this decline is nearing exhaustion — or just beginning. Read More: Markets Today: UK Wage Growth Hits 3-Year Lows, Gold Retreats from Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes Gains. US Earnings Season AheadJPMorgan (JPM) bullish reversal from 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loomWTI Daily Chart US Oil Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView This year has seen many factors leading to downward revised global economic performance. The most evident one is the Trump tariffs which added a widespread angst among economists, especially as they get imposed about a year after the conclusion of the fastest hike cycles, which aimed to dampen the fast growing economies from 2022 and 2023.Even a few years after, economic deceleration still imposes its dominance on oil demand, particularly when looking at the slowing labor growth in OECD nations which generate a lot of demand.For example, the UK just published weak data as seen in the overnight data report (more on this coming on MarketPulse today) and an also slowing US jobs market.This combined with Chinese deflation doesn't help for bulls prospects.There is some nuance however, with Chinese trade data coming in way better than expected and airlines projecting a solid outlook ahead.The daily chart shows reactions at the lows of the daily downtrend after the overnight 1.50% drop.The RSI is approaching the oversold territory but isn't quite there. Let's take a closer look.WTI 4H Chart and levels US Oil 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since the end of September, Oil has firmly held its daily descending channel and even formed a steeper hourly trend.This led to the overnight $57.75 lows, levels not seen since May 2025 and the Liberation Day troughs.There has been some small mean-reversion however as prices reach a confluence bottom of the daily & hourly channels, combined with a bullish RSI divergence and an end to a measured-move.Traders will have to look at the daily lows: any attempt to make new lows and any 4H close below would maintain the bearish trend and push towards the $55 2025 support zone.Any rebound from here may point to the 4H 50-MA at $61.15 , at a confluence with the upper bound of Hourly Channel.Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$59 to $60 2021 and 2025 Main Support now PivotMA 50 and upper bound of Hourly Channel $61.15 to $61.30September range Support now resistance $62 to $63September resistance $65 to $67Support LevelsOvernight lows $57.76$55 to $56.50 2025 Support2019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.5Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It is a US bank holiday today for Columbus Day (with Canada and Japan also off) but markets that are open were still subject to quite the volatile weekly open.The final quarter volatility is never something to beckon with, particularly after an already volatile beginning of 2025. At the close of last week, markets were rocked by a massive trade war scare initiated by some more aggressive Chinese stance. VIX - Equity (Options) Volatility with Heikin-Ashi candles – October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Beijing put up the pressure regarding its rare earth exports, announcing new export controls on rare earth elements and tightening its grip on critical materials essential for semiconductors, defense, and electric vehicles. For now, China has a considerable advantage in this market and is expanding its dominance through key ties with African nations (which have many rare earth resources), for example.Following this aggressive tightening, Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Friday, posting a statement that immediately triggered a significant wave of selling across risk assets. Reactions in Cryptocurrencies Friday reactions to the Trump post – October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets Today: Gold Up 1.4%, Chinese Exports Soar as Trade War Fears Return, DAX Bounces but Risks RemainMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdown In addition to the existing tariffs (that started to be put in place since 2015), Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, effective November 1. The President stated that China had taken an “extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World,” and accused them of holding the world “captive” with their control over “Magnets” and other Elements. Market reactions were immediate: the S&P 500 plummeted 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 closed down 3.5%, and the crypto market saw a record wipeout with Bitcoin tumbling over 8% and over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. Overview on the S&P 500, BTC and ETH Friday moves – Source: TradingView The most significant moves happened in major altcoins like Cardano going from $0.82 in the morning to $0.28 lows (67%!!) on a wick.A similar move happened in XRP going from $2.83 highs in the Friday morning to a $1.32 wick (-52%!)These crazy moves happened around 16:30 Friday during the liquidation.So why are things so green to start the week This marks another classic TACO trade—or Trump Always Chickens Out—came into play over the weekend, leading to a sharp reversal for stock future and cryptos. Nasdaq 15m Chart with the extent of the Friday Moves – Source: TradingView Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US had “aggressively pushed back” against China's export controls and confirmed the 100% tariff “does not have to happen,” indicating that President Trump was still on track to meet President Xi Jinping later in the month. Trump himself tempered his tone on Truth Social on Sunday, saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” and that the US “wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”.In response to this rapid U-turn, US stock futures surged higher at the Sunday Globex open, reversing the huge losses seen on Friday. The US Dollar had initially corrected from the higher tariffs and overall deleveraging from the Friday scare, but recovered the entire move since. Metals on the other hand just loved everything about the news yet again, with both Gold ($4,107 and Silver ($52) trading to new record highs. Moves since Thursday in the Dollar Index (left) and Gold (right) – Source: TradingView Looking at the current picture, China urged the US to "promptly correct its erroneous practices" regarding tariffs and to act with "equality, respect and mutual benefit", though they maintained they were “not afraid of a tariff war”.For now, the latest flashpoint has cooled, but the underlying trade tensions remain a significant risk for investors and traders as Markets approach the November 1 deadline for Chinese tariffs.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold sailed toward $4100/oz on Monday with the precious metal trading up around 2% on the day.The precious metal saw a significant selloff last week which looked like it could be the start of a significant retracement before renewed tension between the US-China sent market participants fleeing toward safe havens once more.Trade tensions between the US and China escalated when US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose massive 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1st, a move that caught market participants by surprise.This dramatic announcement followed China's own recent decision to control the export of rare earth elements, which are vital materials, raising fears about disruptions to global supply chains. President Trump claimed on social media that China was becoming "very hostile" by outlining these export controls to multiple countries. However, over the weekend, Trump softened his stance, reassuring the public that everything would "be fine" and that the US wanted to "help China, not hurt it." This slight shift in tone offered some relief to nervous markets.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that despite the high tensions, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still scheduled to meet later this month.Bessent called China's export controls "provocative" but stressed that the proposed 100% tariffs "doesn't have to happen" if China takes steps to ease the situation and remains open to talks.China's Commerce Ministry responded by warning that if the US continues its aggressive approach, Beijing will take strong countermeasures to protect its interests.Today's rally also comes as the US Dollar Index rose as well despite US markets closed for a holiday.Gold continued a recent trend which has seen the precious metal shrug off USD strength to continue its advance. For more on this, read Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?Of course there has been a lot of discussion around the Gold rally in 2025 and the possible factors contributing to the rise of the precious metal. Many of those factors remain in play, but today's move appears to be largely driven by the US-China trade war question and its implications for global growth.Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysLooking Ahead Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday may well be the most important event for market participants. This will be his last chance to speak before the central bank enters its "blackout period."This "blackout" is a quiet time before the Fed's October 29-30 meeting when officials stop making public comments to avoid confusing the market about their upcoming interest rate decisions.Meanwhile, the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key measure of inflation will be delayed due to the recent government shutdown but is now scheduled to be released on October 24th, giving the Fed just enough time to review the inflation data before their meeting.Several other Fed officials are also scheduled to give speeches throughout the week, adding to the information the market will receive before the official silence begins. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.Usually market participants would hope for some form of pullback after such a move.The RSI period-14 is back in overbought territory after last week's foray below the neutral 50 level.Such a move is likely to depend on how trade talks develop between the US-China in the coming days.Any signs of escalation will see Gold continue tor rise, while signs of a deal is likely to lead to a pullback and some profit taking.Immediate support rests at 4050 before 4025 and 4000 come into focus.On the upside I will be watching the 4150 and 4250 handle closely.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, October 13, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The weekly close turns more cautious after a strong run for tech and growth stocks. Some technical concerns had risen on Tuesday after a huge risk-off/profit-taking session that wasn't explained by any particular fundamental change.Both the S&P 500 (6,764) and Nasdaq (25,195) printed fresh record highs over the past 24 hours, capping a stellar stretch for the sector — though the Dow Jones, still below last Friday’s 47,000 peak, hasn’t quite kept pace.As explained in our previous session analysis, this divergence has started to drag sentiment. The rest will be to see how far it influences overall stock performance. Read More: US stocks sector divergence raises red flags Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView In a strong correction session, indices are retracing toward the highs reached in late September, as traders show hesitancy from the “everything rally” stretch. Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, markets had largely shrugged off political noise — until today. With Gold surging past $4,000 and the U.S. Dollar rebounding sharply over the past week, capital rotation is starting to weigh on risk assets. US Equity heatmap – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Heavyweights like Amazon, AMD, Nvidia and Meta are down roughly 3% on the day, dragging sentiment across the broader tech complex. Still, the Nasdaq remains relatively resilient compared to its peers, holding key right around its September 23 pivot even amid the unwind – So the flows aren't just about massice undoing of the yearly trades (even metals are performing well, Silver is back above $50!!).Let’s take a look at the charts for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to assess how deep this pullback could go. Read More:Canadian employment makes a comeback – USD/CAD reversesHow investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdownUS Index analysis and levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Dow Jones 8H Chart Dow Jones 8H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Technicals for the Dow are not looking optimal for bulls.A multi-day rejection of the past week records has led to a bearish corrective sequence, leading to the strong move below the 8H 50-period MA.This follows a break from its steep upward channel that had begun in August – Steep channels tend to break and prices are still far from bearish, but higher timeframe momentum is stalling.Now trading right at its Key pivot (45,650 to 45,750), buyers will have to defend the level to avoid a more bearish-looking price action.Dow Jones technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 47,105ATH Resistance Zone 47,000 to 47,160 (+/- 150 pts) post-FOMC highs and MA 50 46,400Support LevelsAugust ATH Immediate Pivot 45,650 to 45,75045,767 Session lows at August 22 highs (immediate test)45,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500 Main SupportNasdaq 8H Chart Nasdaq 8H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq rejected the 25,200 to 25,300 Fibonacci-Extension with precision, dragged down from the overall bearish performance in the Dow. Now at the lows of its steep ascending channel, reactions will be key.Prices have moved below the intraday Momentum pivot and MA 50 (24,750) which may hurt the technical outlook further.Now at a Support, coinciding with the lower bound of its upward channel, buyers will have to defend the price action. Failing to do so may lead to revisiting the 24,000 August levels.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance Levelscurrent ATH 25,2241.618 Fib-Extension resistance between 25,200 and 25,300Psychological Resistance around 25,000Momentum Pivot and 8H MA 50 24,750Support LevelsSupport at the lows of the channel 24,400 (immediate Support)August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart S&P 500 8H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The RSI is getting closed to oversold, but some worrying signs are showing for the 500-best US equities.Price action has held a steep upward channel since May 2025 (post-Liberation Day rebound) but this channel just broke to the lower side. Only the September NFP brought the index below, but shortly followed with an upward correction.With short-timeframe momentum prompting stalling price action, the correction is stalling, but monitor reactions to the 6,600 Support which approaches fast.Failure from bulls to hold the support prompts a larger correction in the S&P 500.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance Levels6,774 (current All Time-Highs)Key current Resistance 6,745 to 6,760Key Pivot Zone 6,670 to 6,700potential resistance (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Key Support6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the Canadian labor report — and unlike the still-missing U.S. one (thanks, government shutdown), this one actually delivered. Canada added +60K jobs vs. +5K expected, a sharp rebound from last month’s -65K loss.Even better, most of these gains came from full-time positions, signaling renewed strength in the labor market.Being bullish on the CAD hasn’t been a winning trade this year. It’s been one of the top underperformers in FX—now only slightly ahead of the even weaker JPY—caught in the middle of a challenging macro backdrop.As a cyclical economy, Canada cooled rapidly after its huge 2022–2023 period.The job market softened, real estate activity slumped, and slower immigration weighed further on overall growth. Combined with tensions between Ottawa and the Trump-Administration regarding US-Canada trade, the outlook for the loonie had been anything but bright.Oil prices (One of Canada's top export, linked to CAD performance) trending down to 5-year lows also haven't helped the Maple Dollar much.WTI Oil actually just dipped below $60 – this may hurt US Shale producers even further and hence have less of a net-negative effect on the CAD.Check how well Oil and the Canadian Dollar correlate throughout the years WTI Oil and CAD/USD since 1998, Source: TradingView But things might be starting to look better However, the ongoing Trump–Carney talks this week are reviving optimism for improved trade conditions.Canadian trade envoy Dominic Leblanc described the talks from this week as "successful, positive, substantive", but markets are still awaiting for decisive news on tariffs, particularly on steel.With USD/CAD testing and rejecting the 1.40 level, let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis to see what comes next. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD): Overstretched uptrend, risk of minor pull-back below $4,012The US Dollar rally leaves no crumbs –  Market wrap for the North American session - October 9US stocks sector divergence raises red flagsUSD/CAD multi-timeframe analysisDaily Chart USD/CAD Daily Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView After bearish failure in the pair throughout multiple consolidation periods, USD/CAD has rallied in steps – Initially ranging between 1.36 to 1.38, then 1.37 to 1.39 leading to today.Some countering elements are blurring the picture looking forward: The price action is bullish, with prices just moving above the 200-Day MA acting as immediate support.The 1.40 level on the other hand opposes a huge psychological resistance for the pair.The session and weekly close will be important for the pair: Anything below, traders consider that the trade outlook between US and Canada is not looking too bad.A close above 1.40 continues the bullish trend to retest April resistances.4H Chart and levels USD/CAD 4H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest move upward was more due to the broad US Dollar rally than pure Canadian Dollar weakness.Loonie weakness was at the center of its low performance this year, whcih also invites to look at other CAD pairs for decent opportunities.One can also track how prices react to a test of the 4H-MA 50 (1.39560) and upward trendline for upcoming trading.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels1.40 to 1.4050 Psychological resistanceYesterday highs 1.40342April Resistance 1.41 - 1.4150April Pivotal resistance 1.4250Support LevelsMajor Daily Pivot 1.39200-Day MA 1.39750 (immediate support)1.38 Major SupportMajor Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.371.3550 Main 2025 Support1H Chart USD/CAD 1H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking at teh keys to the current price action, USDCAD is in the middle of some key developments.A break above the weekly highs (1.4030) should turn into a further breakout. Odds of this are increased on a daily close above 1.40.A break below 1.3550 could accelerate towards the 1.39 Main Pivot, key for future price action.Any daily close below the zone (1.3880 are the lows) point to a solid re-entry within the 1.36 to 1.39 5-month range.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Equities have enjoyed a remarkable run, with major indices pushing to fresh highs — from last Friday’s Dow peak above the 47,000 milestone to yesterday’s record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.Since June–July 2025, following the end of the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict, markets have been ecstatic, printing new all-time highs almost every week.Yet, beneath the surface, some divergences are starting to show. The S&P 500 now stands 9.5% above its January 2025 high, the Nasdaq is up 12.5%, but the Dow Jones has gained only 3.6% — a notable gap that hints at sectoral imbalance.A weekly look at US Indices Weekly Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView This underperformance of consumer defensives and cyclicals, coupled with persistent USD strength, weighs on broader sentiment.Tariffs are hurting US manufacturing companies and dragging profit-margin expectations lower. Things don't look as bad when a sector outperformance drags sentiment higher and pulls indices upward.On the other hand, a lack of Market Breadth ends up dragging the stability of the overall sentiment lower – This is what is dragging indices lower in today's session.Market breadth helps to gauge the overall health, direction, and participation within a stock market or index. It achieve this by comparing the number of stocks that are advancing against those that are declining. US Equity heatmap – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:An unusual pattern emerges in NZD/USD after the 50 bps cutDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming?Europe on the brink of the heating season, yet gas remains cheapHow large are the sector divergences ? YTD performance per Sector (Left) ; Daily performance per Sector (Right) Top performing sectors this year:Basic Materials (dragged higher by commodities): +28.90%Communication Services: +24.18%Technology: +23.09%Worst performing sectors this year:Consumer Defensive: +1.52%Real Estate: +3.71%Consumer Cyclical: +4.41%At some point, Market participants may take caution from some key sectors to the economy underperforming, leading to an overall reduced activity and purchasing power.Now, a trader's role is to spot if this leads to a simple retracement that prompts dip buying, or if the current highs are established for a longer-run.For this, the best is to look at the current highs on all indices: If buyers can push for a weekly close above previous highs, it usually means that the trend is to continue.If they fail to do so, Markets will be looking to retest lower levels in value consolidation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dow Jones Index is on the back foot today continuing its bearish trend this week which started with Monday's retreat from the recent highs.The lack of US data due to the US government shutdown has left markets with few catalysts to look forward to. A host of Federal Reserve policymakers including Fed Chair Powell have also done little to inspire any volatility this week.Looking at the current Fear and Greed index, and it is hovering in neutral territory as well. Source: FinancialJuice Given the current malaise we are seeing in US stocks this week and with the lack of US data releases the technicals and chart patterns that develop tend to be more reliable. Let us take a look at what the Dow Jones chart and technicals are telling us.Technical Outlook - Dow Jones, S&P 500 From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones Index on the four-hour chart below has been printing lower highs and lower lows since Friday October 3.The period-14 RSI has also crossed below the 50 neutral level hinting at a shift in momentum from bulls to bears.As things stand, price is at a key confluence level around the 46660 mark which was the swing low on October 2 and holds the 100-day MA.A break of this level could lead the Dow Jones index to decline some 500 points to test the 200-day MA which rests at 46143 with a move beyond that opening up a retest of the psychological 45000.If the Dow finds support at this confluence level, immediate resistance rests at 46900 before the swing highs at 47050 and 47160 come into focus.Dow Jones Four-Hour Chart, July 16, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) If the Dow does drop, the move may not be a big one. History suggests the current bull market may still have room to run despite Wall Street's impressive performance over the last few years. Let us take a look.History Suggests Bull Market May Have More Upside Potential The current upward trend, or "bull market," in the U.S. stock market is nearly three years old, but historical patterns suggest it might only be halfway through its lifespan.This bull market officially began on October 12, 2022, when the S&P 500 index hit its lowest point after a period of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Since then, the index has been soaring, recently hitting a series of record highs, driven primarily by a massive surge in large technology stocks. The S&P 500 is up almost 90% since its 2022 low.However, this gain is still less than the historical average increase of over 170% for past bull markets, which have typically lasted about five years. Interestingly, the market's performance over the past year (its third year) has been very strong, with a gain of over 15%, marking the strongest third-year performance of any bull market since 1957. Source: LSEG Despite the overall strong performance, the market's gains have been very concentrated. While the standard S&P 500 is up nearly 90%, the equal-weight S&P 500 (which shows the performance of the average stock, not just the biggest ones) has only risen 49%. This difference shows that only the largest "megacap" stocks are truly driving the headline index higher.Some investors are now hopeful that when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, it will broaden the rally and allow smaller, average stocks to finally catch up.Now of course this is looking at the S&P 500 but one cannot ignore the knock on impact it has on Wall Street as a whole. The correlation between the S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and the DOw Jones index during the current bull run have been there for all to see. This leaves me thinking that even if there is a lag, the Dow will also benefit from further gains should this bull rally extend for another two years.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand Dollar has been under heavy pressure in recent weeks, weighed down by a string of disappointing economic data, including a sharp GDP contraction that surprised markets and pushed the RBNZ toward a more dovish stance.But markets often move in unexpected ways.Despite the policy decision being split between a 25 bps and 50 bps cut, and the RBNZ ultimately choosing the larger move, NZD/USD didn’t tumble as far as expected.In fact, buyers stepped in, bringing the pair back to nearly unchanged levels by the close of yesterday's session. NZD/USD Intraday 15m Chart – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView So, what explains this counterintuitive reaction?Markets are forward-looking — a larger cut today reduces the need for aggressive easing later, prompting traders to reassess what might have been peak dovishness.In other words, Participants assess that the RBNZ will have less to do from here.A look at the following Rate pricing for the RBNZ Pre-RBNZ Rate Cut pricing – October 7, 2025 – Source: LSEG A 25 bps cut would have led to a longer rate cut path: A 2% Neutral Rate would have been reached in April 2026, taking the New Zealand economy longer to recover.The red circles follow a 25 bps, slower rate cut path. Post-50 bps cut RBNZ Pricing – October 9, 2025 – Source: LSEG Read More:Europe on the brink of the heating season, yet gas remains cheapNasdaq 100: Short to medium-term bullish trends intact amid AI bubble fearsMarkets Today: Softbank Surges 11%, HSBC Falls 6.6%, US Dollar Continues to Advance. DAX Eyes Further Gains The new pricing shows that the cut cycle is priced to end in February 2026 – Hence, faster recovery for the New Zealand economy.Sellers now aim to test yesterday's lows to see if the yearly bottom has been found after failing yesterday.We’ll now look at NZD/USD key levels to see where is the current bottom and if a new one could then emerge.NZD/USD 2H Chart and levels NZD/USD 2H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Amid a US Dollar rebound, sellers have found a place to sell the pair after re-testing the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Will the pair reach new lows, or has a bottom been found after the Jumbo rate cut?This marks key breakout points to follow for the pair: A break above the daily highs (0.58070) should confirm the intermediate bottom.A downside break would imply further weakness in the NZD is expected.Levels to keep on your NZD/USD charts:Support Levels:March highs Support and Channel lows 0.5730 to 0.5755Yesterday lows for Bulls to defend 0.57370.5650 March Lows Support0.56 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Session highs and breakout level: 0.58070Current High timeframe Pivot 0.5850, topline and MA 2000.59 Main Resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European gas prices stay near 30–32 euro per MWh despite the upcoming heating season.High storage levels and strong LNG inflows from the U.S. keep the market stable.China’s weaker LNG demand reduces global price pressure.Risks ahead include Norwegian production outages and possible winter cold pushing prices toward 40-45 euro per MWh. Despite the approaching heating season, natural gas prices in Europe remain near a yearly low — around 30–32 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The persistence of such low levels results primarily from high storage inventories and strong inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. In addition, lower demand for LNG in China — offset by an increase in pipeline gas deliveries from Russia — has reduced competition and thus eased price pressure on the European market. Chart of the European TTF natural gas futures contract, daily data, source: Bloomberg High storage levels and steady prices Since the end of June, the benchmark TTF price has remained around 30–32 euros per MWh, even as the heating season approaches. In the spring, the situation was much more “tense.” After a cold winter, European gas storage facilities were filled to only 33 percent, it means 25 percentage points lower than the year before. However, thanks to increased LNG imports in the second quarter, storage levels rose to about 80–82 percent, significantly reducing the risk of shortage.U.S. LNG exports play a key role The United States has played a key role in stabilizing the market. After the launch of new export terminals, American LNG exports increased by nearly 20 percent in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. For the full year, growth is expected to reach as much as 25 percent. Rising supply from the U.S. is helping the European Union gradually move away from Russian gas, whose imports are now planned to end completely by 2027 — one year earlier than previously projected.China’s weaker LNG demand eases global pressure At the same time, Chinese LNG imports fell by 17 percent in the first eight months of the year, and in September they may decline by another 20 percent year-on-year. This results from weaker domestic demand and increased pipeline gas supplies, mainly from Russia, which is redirecting part of its exports from Europe to Asia.Risks ahead: Norway and the weather factor Despite the current stability, it is likely that European gas prices will start rising again in the coming months. Although storage levels are high, they remain slightly below the multi-year average, and another risk factor is the ongoing production outages in Norway, particularly at the Troll field.Outlook: prices may climb by year-end If temperatures in Europe start to drop rapidly and industrial gas demand continues to recover, the market balance could shift. In such a scenario, TTF contract prices could rise — possibly reaching 40-45 euros per MWh by the end of the year. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Two currencies are at the center of Forex movement in this volatile session: the Kiwi and the Yen — and not in a favorable spot.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 50 bps rate cut, twice as large as many anticipated and only half priced in before the event.The decision followed a string of disappointing economic data that confirmed deeper cracks in New Zealand’s fragile economy — a trend that had pushed markets toward a dovish repricing earlier this summer.With the move from the central bank, the NZD took a large hit, particularly from the hesitant pre-meeting pricing (a smaller 25 bps was also 50% priced).But how much worse can it get? A larger cut today may take out pricing for future cuts.You can (and should!) explore more on the fundamental dynamics for the Kiwi, whioch also explain major FX dynamics right here: Read More: AUD/NZD: On the brink of a major bullish breakout above 1.1470 as RBNZ remains dovish Meanwhile, the Japanese yen finds itself trapped in a different kind of storm — political uncertainty.Newly elected LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to hold the role, is facing difficulties forming a coalition with the Komeito party, leaving Japan’s leadership in partial deadlock.This uncertainty, paired with growing fiscal concerns, has capped the yen’s prior momentum.What started as a pre-election strengthening has now flipped into an N-shaped reversal (for nope), with traders sharply selling the currency until clarity returns to Tokyo’s political landscape.Let's dive into two charts for both currencies: NZDUSD and USDJPY to spot what's next. Read More:Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?Markets Today: Gold Sails Past $4000/oz, Yen Slides to Fresh Lows & RBNZ Deliver 50 bps Rate Cut. DAX Ready to Rally?NZDUSD two-timeframe analysis and levelsNZDUSD Daily Chart NZDUSD Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The major pair is caught in a downward channel which acted as a sudden support from the selling spikes.Still largely in a bearish sequence, the pair trades below its 2025 Key support (0.59) and even below its momentum pivot.However, some value-seeking dip buyers entered to bring back the pair +0.70% from its daily lows as peak dovishness from the RBNZ might be getting priced in.Let's take a closer look:NZDUSD 2H Chart and levels NZDUSD 2H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView NZD Buyers did change the picture quite sharply after the cut, sending more balanced signs into the price action: If the cut was so dovish, the action would still be at the lows.Hence, it might be equivocal to look at a more rangebound price action as long as it is contained between the Monthly channel lows and the topline seen on the chart.Keep an eye on the Pre-Cut level and Daily lows for further momentum insights.Levels of Interest for NZDUSD trading:Support Levels:March highs Support and Channel lows 0.5730 to 0.5770Session lows for Bulls to defend 0.57370.5650 March Lows Support0.56 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Pre-cut levels for Sellers to defend 0.57955Current High timeframe Pivot 0.5850, topline and MA 2000.59 Main Resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)USDJPY two-timeframe analysis and levelsUSDJPY Daily Chart and levels USDJPY Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The most volatile FX major pair is now up 3.50% from its weekend gap up, followed by the strongest bull candles seen since December 2024 and some hawkish repricing for the FED.Japanese politicians will have to be careful with their wordings as the charts are sending worrying signs.Breaking through all-types of resistance levels, the pair is raging higher in an attempt to reprice Yen weakness from the worsening Fiscal outlook.Keep in mind that Markets are pricing in the worst case for the Yen, therefore any better-looking comment may have a sell-the news effect.For now, Kazuo Ueda cancelled his speech so the current trade plays on.The pair will be volatile for while now and traders should expect to see levels breaking up and down depending on upcoming speeches from the Bank of Japan and politicians.Levels of interest for JPY Trading:Resistance levelsEarly 2025 interest zone 153.00 to 153.70Major Resistance 155.00Following Key Resistancee 157.00Support levels151.00 to 152.00 Key Resistance now Pivot150.00 Psychological Support147.80 to 148.00 Key supporta and MA 50 & 200Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices sailed past the $4,000/oz mark overnight to reach highs around the $4050/oz mark in the European session.A mix of easy monetary policies, steady buying by central banks and rising world tensions seem to be driving the rally. That move beyond $4000/oz hints that market participants feel hopeful after the psychological barrier fell.Overall, the momentum and the big‑picture forces look lined up, suggesting the $4,000 breach could be part of a long‑run cycle. A pull‑back might be a very good spot for would be bulls.Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysHow Fast the 2025 Run‑Up Happened Gold’s climb this year has been oddly quick for a safe‑haven asset. It’s up 53 % since Jan. and rose 19 % in the last thirty days. In the past three years the price has even doubled.That speed does not look like a reaction to inflation worries or a tiny interest‑rate tweak. It more likely means investors are pricing in big‑picture risk. Concerns include a flare‑up in world conflicts, the US debt ceiling drama, and even the recent government shutdown that showed governance cracks.In some quarters, the discussion of the move in 2025 is around a potential change in the global monetary order.What the answer is, remains purely guess work but does pose an interesting conundrum for market participants.The Global Anxieties Propelling the Price The climb in gold prices does not come from one thing alone. It seems to come from a mix of world problems that bring back gold’s role as a safe haven. A recent note from a BNP Paribas analyst summed it up: “right now, everything that is a classic gold driver is happening.”The most significant driver is geopolitical instability. Ongoing conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and the escalating tensions across the Middle East (the Israel-Hamas conflict, airstrikes on Iran, and disruption to maritime trade), are pushing capital toward non-sovereign stores of value.This is further complicated by political turmoil in developed nations, such as the French political crisis and the persistent US government shutdown and debt concerns. Market participants are expressing angst over US debt levels, the future of the dollar, and the independence of the Federal Reserve.Adding to the complexity are macro bets on future monetary policy. Despite the dollar's relative strength, gold has found strong support from the expectation that the Federal Reserve will execute further rate cuts before the end of 2025. Source: LSEG Institutions Aiding the Gold Rally While geopolitical risk drives headline fear, two critical institutional factors are powering the gold rush: central bank demand and the fear of a potential tech bubble implosion.Central Bank Buying Spree: Central banks globally are aggressively diversifying reserves away from the US dollar and Treasuries and into bullion. This institutional buying spree is massive and unprecedented in recent history.Central banks are on track to purchase an estimated 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of extraordinary accumulation. The People's Bank of China, in particular, has been a robust buyer for eleven consecutive months (September being month 11), demonstrating a structural, long-term shift in global reserve strategy.Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest monthly inflow in September, resulting in the strongest quarter on record of US$26bn.Global ETF inflows on pace for record year Source: World Gold Council The AI Bubble Hedge: A crucial, less-traditional driver is the growing anxiety surrounding the Artificial Intelligence (AI) tech stock boom. Investors are hedging against the possibility of a "sharp correction" or even an implosion of the AI-driven market, a risk explicitly called out by institutions like the Bank of England.Gold, in this context, has become a collective insurance policy against the systemic fallout of a highly speculative tech-sector crash.The combination of these factors has transformed gold from a traditional defensive hedge into a "conviction trade," where dips in price are now universally treated as buying opportunities by institutions and retail market participants alike.Looking Ahead Later today markets will get the FOMC minutes which may hold more sway than usual in the absence of US data. This will also depend on what surprises the Fed minutes may reveal about the September meeting.When the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, most people thought their official announcements (the statement and the "Dot Plot" chart) suggested they would keep cutting rates easily. However, the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke after the meeting and sounded more careful. He made it clear that they were not promising to cut rates again right away, which surprised many people.If the minutes show more people than expected were considering a massive rate cut (a 50-basis-point cut), the value of the dollar could fall and Gold could get a renewed shot in the arm.As far as we know, only one member, Stephen Miran, actually voted for that big cut, and Powell said most members disagreed. But the minutes will reveal if other members were at least thinking about it. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.There was a triangle pattern breakout which has finally reached its proposed target around the $4043/oz mark.Usually market participants would hope for some form of pullback after such a move. However recent price action and the break of key psychological barriers suggest the rally could keep going.The RSI period-14 remains in overbought territory and has been holding here for the last three days. Thus this is no real indication that a pullback might be imminent.I will personally be focusing on the whole numbers ahead of $4075, $4100, $4150 up next.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, October 8, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A new wave of an unusual trade has been unfolding: A steep rally in Gold, coinciding with a steep rally in the US Dollar.Today’s piece will focus on the latter, but it is still an interesting subject that marks an essential functioning of markets: It’s all about what is priced in (and what is not).You have probably seen the headlines, but Gold officially breached the $4,000 milestone overnight, propelled by a larger RBNZ Rate cut, weakening the Kiwi dollar and trouble in Japanese and European (French) politics.A US Government Shutdown is also in the works. But wait, why is the Greenback also rallying?Mentioned after the FOMC September press conference, a less dovish than expected FED with, despite weakening, still strong US Data is forcing a slower rate cut path ahead, providing a floor to the USD.Also, US Dollar bearishness had been such a prominent theme throughout the first half of 2025 that things couldn’t get much worse except for an unpleasant tariff outcome and degrading diplomatic US relations.A bad-looking Government deficit is also priced, but this is not just US-specific, and it is one of the core reasons why Gold loves this trend so much.Hence, as these themes play out and things actually degrade elsewhere, relative strength comes in. And it is here that the US Dollar wins in the current picture.Let's explore this in a Dollar Index technical review. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Sails Past $4000/oz, Yen Slides to Fresh Lows & RBNZ Deliver 50 bps Rate Cut. DAX Ready to Rally?AUD/NZD: On the brink of a major bullish breakout above 1.1470 as RBNZ remains dovishCrazy crypto week: Digital Markets slide, altcoins under pressureDollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The USD is attempting to break above the topline containing breakout attempts since early May 2025.Fundamentals have changed a bit since: Tariffs are well-implemented, but they're not as harsh as they could have been on the economy.So, the Economy is still fairly strong, hence less cuts are needed (and rates are still above 4%!).This, combined with a daily double bottom at the yearly support, led to a strong technical bounce above the flat-lined 50-Day MA. With Momentum turning positive, a breakout could come into play.Keep an eye on the Topline: A close above would confirm this outcome, while a rejection points to further sideways action.4H Chart and levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Zooming closer, we see Dollar bulls attempting to break the May topline, with the steep rally that started this week stalling a bit.Nonetheless, the 4H MA 50 is starting to tilt upwards to catch up with prices and may cross above the flat MA 200, a bullish sign.One thing to consider however is: How far could such a rally go with the current fundamentals?A breakout in the US Dollar could point towards the 100.00 level, but cuts are still priced in for 2026, and the labor market is slowing.This is why such a breakout would be more favorable for a repricing between 98.00 to 100.00 rather than a full return above the threshold. Of course, things may change as prices reach these levels and bulls still have to push higher.Support Levels:August highs, Immediate pivot around 98.5098.00 SupportAugust Range support 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:session highs and May topline 98.9999.40 June selling pivot100.00 Main resistance zone1H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Buyers will have to break above the daily highs at 98.99 (a close above 99.00 may attract further attention).On the other hand, sellers will want to defend that exact same level and push prices below the post-FOMC Sep 25 highs at 98.60 to retake the short-term advantage.A short-term upward channel is also forming, watch for its support and resistance levels.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: EUR/USD Slides on French Political Turmoil and USD Rebound, Lagarde/Fed Speakers Up NextThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, called the Monetary Policy Review (MPR), this Wednesday, October 8th (at 2:00 PM New Zealand time).The meeting comes against a backdrop of disappointing data which included a contraction in economic activity. As a result, market participants cannot agree on how much the RBNZ will cut the main interest rate. Some predict a small cut of 25 basis points (a 0.25% drop), while others are forecasting a large, aggressive cut of 50 basis points (a 0.50% drop) to try and quickly reverse the negative economic trend. Source: LSEG As you can see from the LSEG data above, markets are split. 45.8% favor a 25 bps rate cut while 54.2% are favoring a 50 bps rate cut which leaves market participants with a lot of questions.The Potential Decision: 25bp vs. 50bp? Heading into the meeting it's clear that a cut will materialize but the split at this stage on whether to cut by 25 or 50 bps remains fairly even.A case to support a 50 bps cut?Those who are itching for a 50 bps rate cut will point to the severe macroeconomic setback recorded in the second quarter of the year. The June quarter GDP outcome registered a contraction of −0.9% QoQ, a figure that was 0.6 percentage points weaker than the RBNZ had forecast.While expectations for the September quarter GDP suggest modest positive growth, possibly exceeding the RBNZ's August MPS forecast of 0.3% QoQ, this increase is deemed insufficient to counteract the magnitude of the Q2 error.The idea is that a 50 bps cut would boost the confidence and activity ahead of the important Christmas and Summer trading period.A case for a 25 bps cut?The case for a more conventional 25 bps cut rests in the fact that Q3 data on inflation and employment will not be released ahead of this meeting. In simple terminology, the RBNZ would be ‘cutting in the dark’ as some have called it.The Weak Q2 Data is Driving the Uncertainty Source: LSEG, Table Created by Gemini Q3 Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy Context Despite the compelling need for stimulus, monthly price data suggests that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will sit close to the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range in the September quarter, aligning with the expected 3%-plus print in Q3 and Q4.The MPC, however, is expected to look through this headline inflation, as the ample excess capacity created by weak economic activity is deemed sufficient to moderate inflation toward the 2% target over the medium term.Labor market indicators confirm this weakness: filled jobs data is tracking consistent with the RBNZ’s August forecast of zero growth in Q3, which is likely to result in a further modest rise in the unemployment rate.Furthermore, job advertisements remain exceptionally low, confirming persistent slack. This suggests that the weakness observed in the urban economies and the services sector is sufficiently critical to override inflation concerns and demands proactive intervention focused on domestic activity.The MPC dynamics also favor aggressive easing. The most hawkish member has exited the committee, and the Governor is expected to lend greater weight to the remaining dovish members. This shift increases the likelihood that the MPC will adopt the aggressive "circuit breaking" stance.Market and NZD Impact Impact of 50 bps Cut (Dovish Surprise): While a 50bp cut would likely cause short-term pressure on the Kiwi dollar, that easing is now so well priced in that the downside risks for the NZD are reduced into year-end.Impact of a 25 bps Cut (Hawkish Surprise): a 25bp cut with a hint of another 25bp in November—remains the key threat to market stability. It would strongly signal that the committee sees less need for urgent action. This, in turn, would cause interest rates to suddenly and undesirably increase across the bond market, as traders would quickly cancel their current aggressive bets that the central bank will keep cutting rates fast.NZD/USD Daily Chart, October 7, 2025 Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A key theme of 2025 has been broad North American currency weakness — particularly against the Euro and other European majors. Both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar have struggled to attract sustained inflows as economic momentum has slowed on both sides of the border.This comes amid a generally weaker Canadian economy (Canada Trade balance data missed again today at -6.32B vs -5.55B exp), the US Main rate remaining elevated and projected to get reduced (we only just got the first 25 bps cut), and, more importantly, US Tariffs hurting trade and economic activity further, particularly between the two neighbors.Markets received some decent Canadian Ivey PMI results (59.8 vs 51.6 exp) at 10:00 bringing back some hopes for better economic results for the Land of the Maple Syrup.With the prospect of tariffs or terms to them reducing with today’s meeting between Canada’s Prime Minister Carney and US President Trump, both the US dollar and Canadian dollar are strengthening against their peers.As a reminder, the CAD is, for example, at levels not seen since 2009 against the stronger Euro, and traders look for better fundamentals to support the currency.Fundamentals that are struggling to be found in a slow Canadian economy.Nonetheless, the better prospects for today’s meeting are helping both currencies regain some ground, leading to interesting developments in USDCAD.Let’s observe what they are through a multi-timeframe analysis of the North American pair. UPDATE: Access the meeting live right here Read More:Markets Today: Yen Hits Two-Month Lows, DXY Continues Advance, Gold Retreats. DAX Eyes Return to SupportEUR/USD Slides on French Political Turmoil and USD Rebound, Lagarde/Fed Speakers Up NextNikkei 225: Rallied above 48,000, key levels to watch next as new Japanese PM ignites bullsUSDCAD Multi-timeframe technical Analysis and levelsDaily Chart USDCAD Daily Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView After breaking out of its August consolidation (1.3720 to 1.3880), buyers made a push towards the 1.40 resistance zone and came close to the psychological level.Overall, momentum for the US Dollar did calm sharply after a post-FOMC huge rise, leaving some space for the Loonie. This translates to a sideways moving RSI and sellers appearing at the 200-Day Moving Average.Looking forward, a break above that key MA (Currently at 1.3983) should also lead to continuation above the 1.40 level.Rejecting here however would point to higher odds of return into the August range at least.Let's have a closer look.4H Chart USDCAD 4H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the pair is consolidating in a triangle formation accentuating the odds of a breakout as prices converge.Things will depend on the outcome of today's meeting so stay close to the headlines.Overall, bulls have more to lose in case the upward (Support) trendline breaks, but also receives a backup from the 4H MA 50 which will be the last barrier before re-entering the August range.Look at a close below the 1.3925 Pivot level for confirmation of this thesis.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levelsrecent highs 1.39866Friday Sep 29 resistance around 1.39501.40 Major resistanceApril 3 lows around 1.4050Support Levels1.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot1.3850 to 1.3860 support1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 Support There is some ongoing small, indecisive selling but things should get spicier as the day advances and headlines land.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin had been steadily consolidating above the $110,000 mark since July (dipping only twice below before rallying consequently), but hadn’t been able to retake its record levels.Hesitancy was the norm: Summer trading tends to reduce inflows, and supplemented with weakening US Data, the Greenback finding a bottom (will it hold?) and Gold taking all the attention, Cryptocurrencies were a bit more timid.Timid but solid, however, a lack of pursued upside was far from implying weakness.The Crypto Market Cap held steadily around and above the 2021 and 2024 peaks, proof that buyers were not backing out of historically elevated valuations.Nonetheless, a mid-to-end September selling wave gathered fears, shaking out weak hands before rallying 14% (!) to the current + $125,000 record.Some Bloomberg Analysts have reported that, amid the US Government shutdown, some investors rushed into Bitcoin as a safe-haven, amid American political uncertainty grows again.This view was also expressed in one of our previous Crypto editions last week. It still holds some valid levels for anyone interested.Let's take a detailed look at Bitcoin to look what technicals took the nº1 Crypto to the ongoing breakout. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Smashes $3900/oz, Bitcoin Hits Fresh Highs as Japan Election Triggers Frenzy. DAX Eyes Potential RallyPrecious metals break new records to close the week – Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) outlookMarkets Weekly Outlook - Navigating the US Shutdown & Global Trends as Equity Markets Continue to SoarBitcoin (BTC) multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart Bitcoin Daily Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current rally from Friday September 26th lows has completely undone the sequence taking momentum to bearish territory:A fail to close below the September 1 lows, combined with the change of narrative from the post-September FOMC meeting led to the current tight bull channel price action.There hasn't been a red daily candle in BTC in eleven sessions including the weekends and momentum is not overbought yet.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and levels Bitcoin 4H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The past week's huge momentum has largely assisted buyers to break all types of resistances including the $117,000 pivot and the $120,000 psychological level.The last lows marked a new upward channel within which prices are evolving, with the higher bound located right around $135,000, in confluence with major Fibonacci extension levels.In any case, there will have to be more work done with the RSI in overbought territory on the intraday.Holding between $120,000 to $125,000 as momentum cools down would further boost the chances of pursuing the price discovery.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$120,000 micro-support to hold for further continuationPivot Zone $115,000 to $117,000$108,000 to $110,000 previous ATH support zone (September 26th lows)$106,000 mini-support$100,000 main support at the psychological levelResistance Levels:Current ATH Resistance $123,000 to $125,000 (testing, need to close above for bulls/below for bears)Current all-time high $125,420Potential minor Resistance at Fib Extensions between $127,000 to $128,200Fib-induced Major potential resistance and channel upper bound $135,0001H Chart Bitcoin 1H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ongoing momentum has formed an upward intraday channel within which prices are evolving.Looking at the high RSI levels consolidating, it seems that profit-taking is slowing down progress a bit, hinting at some rangebound action between the intraday resistance ($124,500 to $125,500) and support ($121,000 to $122,000 – in confluence with the 50-Hour MA).Watch for breakouts above and how it revolves into the broad Crypto market:Crypto Market Cap is breaking new highs Total Crypto Market Cap, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Total Market Cap is breaking new records which coincides with the current rally and altcoins seem to only start getting tractions.Polkadot, Dogecoin, Ethereum and BNB are the main contenders but look for further widespread buying if BTC consolidates at current ATH levels.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have yo-yo'd quite aggressively in the past two months, moving from the dovish FED narrative to widespread profit-taking after failing to pursue the 2025 bull-move.Some concerns had been raised, and with justification.The Crypto total Market Cap had been free falling, some key ETFs had been seeing their first yearly outflows and technicals were corroborating a double top in both Ethereum and Bitcoin, adding to the shaded picture.But amid the ceaseless everything rally, buyers stepped up to create a lower high in Bitcoin as Equity indices were getting lifted and even more as the US government shutdown put back some diversification-interest in investors' plans.The Rally in BTC followed up with a huge day for altcoins yesterday.As a matter of fact, no NFP releases in today's data may add to the ongoing easy-going flows – For now the crypto picture is muted but October marked a very positive sign for Crypto Market.After looking at the current daily performance, we'll have a look at ETH, SOL and XRP through some intraday charts.Update: Russia just lifted the ban for Crypto investing on their main stock exchange. Amid the ongoing war and frozen asset purchases around the world for Russians, this may attract further flows to the digital assets. Read More:Crypto demand spikes as US Government shutdown looms and data delays hit marketsSPX 500: Bullish trend undeterred by US government shutdown, en route to 6,800/850 nextMarkets Today: US Dollar on Course for Worst Week Since July, Gold Steady, DAX eyes Retracement Ahead of Bullish Continuation Daily overview of the Crypto Market (10:41 ET), October 3, 2025 – Source: Finviz A picture that was mostly red at the top of the hour is now turning green, with BNB seeing some strong inflows. Before that, the mood was more of mild profit-taking – Some Risk-on flows post Services PMIs are now spreading into digital assets.Watch afternoon flows, as recently, we've seen some huge movements particularly around the 14:30 mark (take a look at the change in crypto picture from the Sep 29 session).Market Cap checkup – Back towards recent highs Total Crypto Market Cap, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The signs of profit-taking from mid-September have now extinguished, with the Market Cap flashing below the December 2024 record ($3.76T).A move below could have started to trigger some fears for participants who are leveraged at the highs, but the market is for now holding strong.Let's now look at some charts.Intraday Charts for ETH, SOL and XRPEthereum (ETH) 8H Chart Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has maintained strong momentum since the end of September but is a bit left off in today's action.Unchanged with a slowing RSI, the picture is still looking better than it did, particularly with prices moving above the $4,200 to $4,300 consolidation, which acted as key pivot for bull/bear strength.Keep an eye on the downward trendline connecting all tops since the new record highs from August as it seems to be containing the action.Any break above should lead to a retest of the ATH.Levels to place on your ETH Charts:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,900 8H MA 200$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,600 mini-resistance August 26th peak$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extensionSolana (SOL) 8H Chart Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Now up 20% from its recent trough at $190.60, Solana has re-attracted significant inflows.Beating its competitor the Ether in the past week, Solana still has to watch for reactions at the confluence of the $235 mini-resistance and the top of the upward channel.Breaking above should test the previous $253 highs, after that, nothing much to stop the reaching of new all-time highs.A rejection here however could point to a retest of the $200 level.Watch for an also high RSI that may need more momentum to counteract.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Resistance turned pivot level $218 to $220Support zone $200 to $205Recent lows $191$185 higher timeframe momentum supportResistance Levels:$235 to $240 mini-resistance and Higher bound of channel$250 to $255 main resistance$290 to $300 all-time high resistance ($295 ATH)XRP 8H Chart XRP 8H Chart, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView XRP has officially broken out of its descending channel that had compromised its outlook, and having retested it, the picture is brighter.Overall, the technicals for Ripple are more rangebound than anything, with prices holding between $2.65 to $3.15 since mid-August, but reactions here could be key.Momentum has been strong, but buyers will need to breach the mini-resistance between $3.10 to $3.20 to try to regain the $3.40 highs, levels not seen since end-July/beginning-August.This would also breach the current range formation. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold?The recent USD/JPY price action has been characterized by a significant pullback, registering heavy losses for the first time in three weeks after encountering strong resistance near the psychological 150.00 mark.The immediate downward momentum is predominantly driven by external headwinds weighing heavily on the US Dollar. These factors include downbeat US labor data, volatility associated with a potential US government shutdown, and a general risk-on mood among investors.The resulting anticipation of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in October and December remains "practically intact," compressing the US interest rate advantage and reducing the structural support for the USD leg of the pair.This weakening of the USD is occurring simultaneously with the emergence of structural drivers for Japanese Yen (JPY) strength. This convergence of fundamental factors, fading USD strength meeting developing JPY appreciation backs the case for a further depreciating move in USD/JPY, suggesting the pair is "not out of the woods yet" for continued downside pressure.Bank of Japan Policy: Deconstructing the Normalization Path The Bank of Japan sits at a fork in the road. There are signs of a stronger‑economy which are pushing the BoJ away from its ultra‑easy stance. The internal drivers supporting a policy shift include sustained wage growth, the broadening of services inflation, and upbeat economic activities across Japan.First, wages have been rising fairly steadily for about a year. Real pay seems to be going up, which could mean households have more cash to spend. That isn’t just a tiny blip; it points to a shift in bargaining power toward workers. When workers earn more, price pressure usually builds.Second, services‑inflation is spreading. Even though goods prices are cooling, costs for health, hotels and schools keep climbing. Those price rises are likely more permanent because they are tied to personal consumption, not to supply shocks.Thirdly, recent GDP numbers have been tweaked upward a bit, industrial output beat expectations, and business confidence surveys show a move from fear to hope. All together, these signs show an economy that no longer needs a lot of external stimulus to keep growing.When you put those three points together, you get inflation that’s driven more by home demand than by foreign price jumps. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the BoJ will lift rates if the economy and prices match forecasts. He also warned that falling behind inflation “warrants attention.” That sentence, even if a bit vague, signals he sees a risk if they stay too loose.The recent policy meeting had a surprising 7‑2 split vote. A narrow majority with some hawks on the board is rare when the policy is unchanged. That vote, odd as it is, shows more pressure from inside the central bank that the current stance might become out of step with price movements.Markets already price that pressure. According to LSEG data, markets are pricing in around a 45.3% probability of a 25 bps hike in December with another 11% pricing in a 50 bps rate cut. Source: LSEG Not a done deal yet, but the signs continue to grow.Japanese Political Risk: LDP Leadership and Monetary Policy Alignment Over the weekend the Yen may face risk from political developments as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will host their leadership election.Different candidates have very different money ideas. Sanae Takaichi, who likes stimulus and is against rate hikes, could cause a “political premium” on yen weakness, possibly sparking a sharp USD/JPY jump.On the other hand, a candidate linked to Shinjiro Koizumi or a neutral one might push for coordinated policy aimed at price stability and growth that could cut uncertainty and maybe push the yen lower against the dollar.Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak next week Wednesday on October 8. This will come after the LDP leadership contest and it will be interesting to see where the Governor is in terms of rate hikes and any pressure he may face from the incoming LDP leadership. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - USD/JPY From a technical point of view, USD/JPY does appear to have found support at the 100-day MA which rests just above the lower band of the channel which has been in play since the back end of July.However, significant resistance lies just above current price with the 50 and 200-day MAs resting at 147.80 and 148.24 respectively.Beyond that we have the psychological 150.00 handle which USD/JPY has twice rejected now. The pair has failed to find acceptance above this handle on August 1 and September 26 2025.This could be a sign that bears are still interested as the hype around rate hikes from the BoJ builds.Looking at the downside, support may be found at the 100-day MA and lower end of the range around the 146.50 handle.Below that we have support resting at 144.84 before the swing low at 143.40 handle comes into focus.USD/JPY Daily Chart, October 3, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.