For traders returning to their desks after the mid-December break, the Metals complex has been the unmissable story, aggressively grabbing market share in investor portfolios even as volumes thinned out for year-end settlement.After a relatively calm consolidation period from October to late November, the catalyst for the next leg up arrived via a dovish pivot from NY Fed President Williams.His comments—early but later warranted by weaker inflation data and downward revisions to US labor numbers—rocked markets and reignited the "Dollar Diversification" trade.Initially, the rally was driven by rate cut expectations.The Year-end buying actually pushed prices to what resembled a short-squeeze around all metals as consecutive +5% average gains across the asset class were common theme just ahead of Christmas.When these narrative paused, geopolitical uncertainty took the baton—and that is exactly where we find ourselves today. zoom_out_map Metals Performance Since September 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest headline shocker arrived over the weekend with the sneaky (to say the least) capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro.While a US intervention in Venezuela had been priced in to some extent, the "sci-fi" nature of the execution caught markets off guard.The real accelerant for the renewed panic demand in metals wasn't the capture itself, but the aftermath.In post-operation interviews, President Trump renewed threats regarding Greenland, autonomous territory of Denmark (a NATO and EU member).This has triggered immediate concern regarding sovereign FX reserve diversification – A Major theme during 2025.Denmark, for instance, holds approximately $90 billion in foreign currency reserves, the majority of which are denominated in US Dollars. With diplomatic tensions rising, it is safe to assume the Danish government—and other nations watching closely—are actively looking for other solution.This is bringing yet another buying wave in Precious Metals, further driven higher by the influx of money from asset managers at the beginning of the year and confirming the end-of-December price extremes that took Gold, Silver, and Platinum to new all-time highs.Let's dive into an intraday timeframe analysis for Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) as ongoing buying is catching steam. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideStock Markets Cheer Newfound Freedom to Begin 2026 — US Index Outlook zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Platinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView It seems that our 2026 Metals Preview was timid in terms of targets looking at the current action.Having easily breached its 2008 preceding record during the holidays, Platinum kept on extending all the way to $2,500 where traders returning and profit-taking preceded a huge pullback.Looking at the chart, this is a picture break-retest of 2011 highs and of previous Channel bounds, mentioned in our late-December analysis.Keep an eye on the RSI – overall, the picture is looking very bullish and strong but buyers will have to exceed preceding highs with even more momentum to avoid the formation of divergences.For now, they are far from showing up and momentum is strong. I expect to see at least a test of the ATH or higher for Platinum.Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,450 to $2,525 Current All-Time HighsSession highs $2,420Potential Resistance at Fib Extension (1.382) $2,700 to $2,770Potential Resistance 2 at Fib Extension $2,900 to $3,000Support levels$2,200 to $2,300 2008 Momentum Pivot2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,9502013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver is going ballistic in today's action, up another 6%.The grey metal is once again caught up into waves of thinner supply and immense demand as beginning-year orders push up demand yet again, particularly with its positive seasonals.Immediate reactions will be interesting:Entering the $82 to $84 all-time High resistance Zone without slowing down (no dojis or red candles) indicates higher chances of a breakoutStalling at $84 could point to a double top – The way things have been, even double tops aren't enough to generate strong pullbacks, so this could point to a dip-to-buyFailure to breach $82 this week seems unlikely but would be a first sign of weakness for the metal.With Momentum and Volumes coming back to Market, continuation makes sense so keep an eye on potential new records or what happens if buyers fail to push prices all the way to there.$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance.On the higher timeframe, watch whether Silver holds its $75 Pivot Zone and upward trendline – $70 is the next support below.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:$81.01 Session Highs$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance$87 to $88 Potential Fibonacci Resistance$92 Potential Fibonacci Resistance 2Support Levels:$75 to $77 Immediate Bull/Bear PivotPsychological Support, Higher Timeframe Pivot $70 to $72Support $65 to $67 at Previous All-time Highs Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Macro tailwinds favour AUD: Improving China growth signals and still-elevated Australian inflation tilt the RBA toward a less dovish stance in early 2026, underpinning medium-term AUD/USD upside.Medium-term uptrend firmly established: AUD/USD has broken its long-term downtrend, is holding above the rising 20-day MA, and remains supported by a widening AU–US 2Y yield differential, with 0.6590 as the key medium-term support.Short-term bullish momentum constructive: A minor bullish breakout above 0.6720 opens scope for a push toward 0.6760–0.6800, as long as 0.6685 holds over the next 1–3 trading days. zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Annual performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Australian dollar delivered a strong performance in 2025, finishing the year with a 7.2% gain against the US dollar. This placed it among the top-performing major currencies, trailing only the euro (+11.8%) and the Swiss franc (+12.5%) versus the greenback (see Fig. 1).Since the 21 November 2025 low of 0.6421, the AUD/USD recorded a gain of close to 5% as of Tuesday, 6 January 2025, at the time of writing, to print an intraday value of 0.6730.Twin drivers: China’s improving economic prospects and Australia’s rising inflation trend The macro factors that are supporting the ongoing medium-term (multi-week) bullish momentum in the AUD/USD are, firstly, an improving economic backdrop in China, where the official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in December 2025, surpassing both November’s reading and expectations of 49.2. It marked the first expansion in factory activity in China since March 2025Secondly, Australia’s inflation trend has started to accelerate since June 2025, as the trimmed mean CPI jumped to 3.3% y/y in October 2025 from June’s print of 2.8% y/y and September’s print of 3.2%. Even though, the consensus for December 2025’s trimmed mean CPI that is released on Wednesday, 7 January, is expected to cool down slightly to 3.1% y/y but it is still higher that RBA’s desired long-term inflation target of 2%-3%.Hence, an improving macro backdrop from China, which is Australia’s major trading partner and domestic inflation trend remains elevated, the odds are skewed towards a less dovish RBA’s monetary policy stance at least in the first quarter of 2026, which is likely going to be supportive for the AUD/USD to springboard to higher highs.Let’s now dissect the directional bias of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD medium-term uptrend supported by a bullish reversal from 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 2: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on 5 December 2025 from its former long-term secular descending trendline that capped previous rallies since the 25 February 2021 high.The positive developments have indicated that the medium-term range configuration from 24 April 2025 to 21 November 2025 is likely to have ended, and the AUD/USD’s trend has now transited to a medium-term up trend phase since the 21 November 2025’s key inflection low of 0.6421 (see Fig. 2).The latest price actions of the AUD/USD have managed to trade above its rising 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.6660, where it staged a rebound on 2 January 2026 and on Monday, 5 January 2026.In addition, the 2-year yield premium between Australian sovereign bonds and US Treasury notes has continued to widen to 0.60% at the time of writing from 0.10% printed on 19 November 2025.These positive observations on the Australian dollar reinforce the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase for the AUD/USD with its key medium-term pivotal support at 0.6590.AUD/USD minor bullish acceleration towards 0.6760 and 0.6800 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) We now turn to the key technical levels and short-term intraday signals to define the prevailing trend bias over the next one to three trading days.Based on the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has just staged a bullish breakout from a former minor range resistance of 0.6718/0.6727 in place since 29 December 2025.This minor bullish breakout is likely to have solidified the start of another potential leg of an impulsive up move sequence for the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).Watch the 0.6685 key short-term pivotal support (also the minor ascending channel support from 21 November 2025 low) to maintain the bullish bias on the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.6760 and 0.6800 in the first step.However, failure to hold at 0.6685 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective slide to retest the 20-day moving average that is acting as the second-level key short-term support at 0.6660. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most traders are now back in rhythm after a long but well-deserved Winter holiday break.2025 has been a particularly adventurous rollercoaster, marked by the most volatility across asset classes in the year. Debasement trades, de-dollarization, AI, wars, Trump dramas, and TACOs, crypto ups and downs, and much more – trends, volatile ranges, and breakouts defined a much more active yearly session after years of doubt, as traders and asset managers agreed on the same principles.Risk assets were cheap, particularly after Liberation Day, so everyone went in – Valuations are now getting elevated, but the limit could still be far. zoom_out_map Global Stock Markets Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets received some pessimistic signs from the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, but when examining the current Market picture, traders are uniting behind hopes of more rate cuts. The answer to this should be confirmed further on Friday with the upcoming NFP report (8:30 A.M.).Another prospect boosting sentiment is the return of a proactive American foreign policy, for the US' own advantage – The capture of Venezuela's Maduro brings back Imperialism on the menu.Even if wars tend to dampen sentiment, the effect is often short-lived as investors learnt how profitable they are for US companies. But overall, the vibe from the Market is one of Freedom. Venezuelans seem to be content with the situation (from what we can see), and Americans are proud. Investors will hope this positive sentiment endures, while traders can simply rejoice from the volatility.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (13:30 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 5, 2025 Read More:2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityMarket Implications for Venezuela President Maduro's Capture – WTI Oil and Dow Jones to New Highs!Top Economic and Geopolitical Themes to Watch for Markets and Traders in 2026Dow Jones 2H Chart – Double Top broken zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls came in hungry to start the year, pushing the Industrial Index to new All-Time Highs once again. A very positive sign to undo the January 2 drops, but even more when considering that buyers broke above a preceding double top. This can be a sweet sign for a breakout (as short-sellers get caught and have to buy-back their positions higher). This effect can be short-lived but still has a positive effect.On the very short-run, the buying could see some stalling as the RSI reaches overbought levels. Nevertheless, the daily candle is a huge one, so further upside could be warranted.In the event of a retracement, keep a close eye on the 48,800 to 49,000 for a break-retest scenario.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPotential mini-resistance around 49,300 (breaking) 1.382 Fib-ExtensionPotential Resistance from 49,420 to 49,50049,244 Session highs50,000 Psychological Level and Higher timeframe Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsChristmas ATH as current pivot – 48,870 to 49,000 November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 mini-supportPsychological Support at 48,000Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 20045,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Still not back to 100% zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-heavy index has been struggling to return to its preceding record established in October (26,182), currently trading shy of 3% from there.Sellers are re-entering the field around the 25,500 resistance zone leading a triangle consolidation, a technical formation to keep your eyes on for future breakouts.The intra-day selloff has already occurred and some dip-buyers are entering the action at the 2H 200-MA. The action should be more balanced in the tech-index, so watch the session highs for a bullish breakout and a break below the 200-MA for a bearish pullback.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 pts (recent rejection)intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,400 200-period MA Support (immediate test)25,150 Triangle formation lowsPivot 25,000 to 25,250 Momentum pivot24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart – Close to a breakout zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The short-term bear channel formed from the December All-Time High peak is now seeing a breakout, leading to a bullish outlook.The 6,930 Psychological level is acting as short-term resistance (session highs).The RSI is not overbought yet but in any case, traders will need to watch whether buyers push to new highs (elevated breakout odds).For support, watch a return to the 2H 50-period MA. A break below would mark further downside potential.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Heading into 2026, the US Dollar faces a complicated path driven by a conflict between the Federal Reserve and the government. While the Fed tries to stabilize the economy, the government is aggressively spending money through the new "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act.Experts predict a "V-shaped" year for the currency: the dollar is expected to weaken in the first six months, dropping from its current level of 99.00 down to around 94.00, as the Fed cuts interest rates to protect jobs.However, this dip should be temporary. By the second half of the year, the effects of the new government spending and trade tariffs will likely boost inflation, forcing interest rates back up and pushing the dollar back to or even above its starting level. Despite this predicted rebound, the dollar faces significant risks, including potential political fights over the debt limit, the possibility of the AI stock bubble bursting, and challenges from rival nations in the BRICS alliance. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda The Macroeconomic Landscape: A Tale of Two Halves Uneven Economic Growth (US vs. Europe) The U.S. economy is expected to outperform the rest of the world in 2026, though the growth will happen in two distinct phases. The year will likely start slowly as the lingering effects of high interest rates drag down spending, but the economy is projected to rebound strongly in the second half as new government stimulus kicks in. This temporary "soft patch" early in the year will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may briefly weaken the dollar.In contrast, Europe is facing stagnation and deep structural issues, forcing the European Central Bank to cut rates even more aggressively. Ultimately, the gap between a robust US and a weak Europe will provide long-term support for the dollar.The AI Investment Boom A massive wave of spending on Artificial Intelligence is acting as a safety net for the US economy. With up to $3 trillion projected to be spent on data centers and tech infrastructure, this boom is creating jobs and demand even as traditional manufacturing slows down. Since the tech giants driving this spending like Microsoft and Google are American, global investors continue to pour money into US markets. This constant flow of capital creates a "floor" for the dollar, keeping it relatively strong. However, relying so heavily on a single industry does create a significant risk if the tech sector suddenly stumbles.Inflation and Tariff Shocks While inflation was originally expected to fall to 2.4% in 2026, new trade policies could reverse that trend. The proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs, which include a 10% tax on imports, are expected to push prices up by an additional 1% to 1.5%. This creates a difficult scenario where growth might slow down while prices remain high ("stagflation"). Because the Federal Reserve would need to keep interest rates higher to fight this tariff-induced inflation, the dollar is likely to strengthen as higher rates attract foreign investors.Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s High Wire Act The Fed vs. The Market The Federal Reserve is currently walking a tightrope. Although they cut interest rates slightly at the end of 2025, they sent a "tough" message that they aren't ready to lower them much further.There is now a major disagreement between the Fed and investors: the Fed plans to keep rates relatively high (around 3.4%) through the end of 2026 to keep inflation in check, while investors are betting on deeper cuts (down to 3.0%) to help the economy. This gap between what the Fed plans to do and what the market expects will likely cause the dollar's value to jump up and down significantly.A Year of Two Halves Most experts predict that 2026 will play out in two distinct phases. In the first half of the year, the economy is expected to look weak, which will likely force the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than planned (possibly in January and April) to protect jobs. This would temporarily push the value of the dollar down.However, in the second half of the year, new government stimulus and trade tariffs are expected to heat up inflation again. This will force the Fed to stop cutting rates while other countries continue to cut theirs, making the dollar strong again by the end of the year.Higher Rates are Here to Stay Underlying all of this is a structural change in the economy. Economists believe the "neutral" interest rate, the sweet spot where the economy runs smoothly, is permanently higher now than it was before the pandemic, meaning rates won't return to rock-bottom levels.Furthermore, because the US government is borrowing massive amounts of money, it must offer higher returns (yields) on its long-term bonds to attract lenders. These higher yields tend to attract foreign money, which provides a long-term safety net for the dollar's value.Fiscal Policy: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" and Debt Dynamics Government Spending Saves the Day (Eventually) The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act is a massive spending plan that extends tax cuts and creates new benefits. While this increases the national debt significantly, it acts as a powerful stimulus package. By the second half of 2026, the extra money from these tax cuts will flood into the economy, boosting growth and strengthening the dollar right when the economy needs it most.Borrowing More, But Attracting Cash To pay for these tax cuts, the US government must borrow huge amounts of money by selling bonds. Usually, having too much debt makes a country's currency look weak. However, because US bonds pay higher interest rates than those in Europe or Japan, global investors are expected to keep buying them. This constant demand for US bonds keeps money flowing into the dollar, keeping it strong despite the high debt levels.The Debt Limit Fight A major political risk returns on January 2, 2026, when the limit on how much the US government can borrow (the debt ceiling) kicks back in. The government can use emergency accounting tricks to keep running until the summer, but a political standoff is expected. Paradoxically, this drama often strengthens the dollar temporarily; when investors get scared by political fighting, they often rush to hold US cash as a "safe haven" until the crisis is resolved. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda Structural Risks: The Black Swan of 2026 About 26% of major investors believe the biggest risk in 2026 is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) crash. The concern is that companies are spending a massive $3 trillion on AI technology, but it might not generate enough profit to justify the cost. If big tech companies (the "Mag 7") fail to deliver results, their stock prices could collapse.This would hurt the US dollar in two ways: first, foreign investors would sell US stocks, driving the dollar down; second, if the crash causes a recession, the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to zero, potentially crashing the dollar index below 90.Sovereign Debt Crisis With government debt at record highs worldwide, there is a risk of a financial crisis. A crisis in the US caused by excessive government spending (the "OBBBA" bill) would be a disaster, potentially destroying the dollar's reputation as a safe asset.However, experts think it is more likely that a debt crisis will hit Europe or developing nations instead. Paradoxically, if other countries face a crisis, investors will likely rush to buy US dollars for safety, making the dollar stronger.Major Currency Pairs Outlook zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda Conclusion: The Resilient Greenback In short, the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay resilient in 2026, even if the ride gets bumpy. While the dollar might dip early in the year as the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it is supported by strong underlying forces that other countries simply cannot match. The massive new government spending bill ensures the US economy will grow faster than its rivals, keeping interest rates high and attracting investors. Furthermore, the U.S. advantage in AI technology and energy independence creates a solid safety net for the currency.Investors should expect a "check mark" pattern for the dollar this year: a temporary drop in the first six months, which will be a good chance to buy, followed by a strong recovery. In a world full of risks from wars to slow growth in Europe and China the US Dollar remains the best option available, or the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the laundry. The time of easy, calm markets is over; a new era of volatility and US strength has begun. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/01/2026): Join Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Risk assets resilient: Asian equities opened strongly despite heightened geopolitical risk from Venezuela, led by a sharp rally in Japan’s Nikkei, while US equity futures maintained short-term bullish momentum.Divergent cross-asset moves: Gold surged on safe-haven demand but is now stalling near resistance, while WTI crude weakened as supply expectations improved following potential US control of Venezuelan oil output.USD capped, FX mixed: The US dollar edged higher but remains below key resistance, with AUD/USD holding its minor uptrend as long as near-term supports stay intact. Asian stock markets have opened on a strong footing on Monday, 5 January, for the first full trading week of 2026, ignoring the potential geopolitical tension arising from the direct inland attack on Venezuela by the US over the weekend that led to the capture and swift removal of Venezuela’s leader, Maduro, by US military forces.Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped by 3% to hit a 7-week high, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index traded almost unchanged, while China’s A50 staged an intraday rally of 1.25 at the time of writing.After the removal of Venezuela’s leader, Maduro, US President Trump has indicated that the US will “administer” Venezuela in the interim, without any definite timeline, and allow US oil and exploration companies to manage Venezuela’s oil fields, drawing parallels to a “Iraq 2.0” occupation.Meanwhile, in today’s Asian session, gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 1.8%, the US Dollar Index inched higher by 0.28%, and WTI crude oil slipped by 0.6% over supply fears from the removal of Venezuela’s oil sanctions by the US.Here are five intraday (hourly) technical setups on key cross-assets to watch as the trading session unfolds today in the aftermath of the US attack on Venezuelan soil.Japan 225 bullish breakout from short-term range zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor choppy price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) seen from November 2025 to December 2025 are likely to have ended.Today’s bullish breakout above its former minor range resistance of 51,533 from the period of 4 November 2025 to 13 November 2025 has indicated the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Japan 225 CFD index (see Fig. 1).Watch the 50,985/50,718 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD index to maintain the bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 52,136, and 52,775/53,045 (new all-time high zone defined by Fibonacci extension cluster).However, a break and an hourly close below 50,718 negates the bullish tone to open up scope for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support of 50,180 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages)US Wall Street 30’s minor bullish momentum remains intact zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) managed to stage a minor bullish reversal last Friday, 2 January 2026, after a retest of its rising 20-day moving average.In addition, its hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to shape a series of “higher lows” above the 50 level, which indicates potential short-term bullish momentum remains intact.If 47,870 short-term pivotal support continues to hold, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index may extend its up move above 48,480 to retest the current all-time high area of 48,770/48,870 in the first step (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 47,870 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 47,530 (also close to the 50-day moving average).AUD/USD slipped 0.3% but still holds above 20-day MA support zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the AUD/USD pulled back by -0.3% in today’s Asian session (Monday, 5 January), but it is still trading above its 20-day moving average and testing the lower boundary of its minor ascending channel from its 21 November 2025 low.These observations suggest the minor uptrend phase remains intact as long as the 0.6660 short-term pivotal support holds on the AUD/USD for retest on the 0.6720/0.6727 intermediate range resistance in the first step.On the flipside, a break below 0.6660 key minor support put the minor uptrend phase in jeopardy to trigger a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6630 and even 0.6660/0.6590 next (also close to the 50-day moving average).Gold (XAU/USD) intraday rally now at resistance zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor up move seen in gold (XAU/USD) from its 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 has reached an inflection resistance zone of US$4,403/US$4,430 (also defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor corrective decline from 26 December 2025 all-time high to 31 December 2025 low)Elliot Wave/Fibonacci analysis suggests the recent up move from 31 December 2025 is likely a minor mean reversion rebound, which suggests there is still downside risk lingering around for gold (XAU/USD).Watch the US$4,485 key short-term pivotal resistance on gold (XAU/USD) for a potential slide to retest the intermediate support of US$4,333/US$4,309 (today’s Asian session opening gap up and last Friday, 2 January, US session low) in the first step (see Fig. 4).However, a clearance above US$4,485 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560.WTI crude bearish reaction at 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 5: West Texas Oil minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The 7% rally seen on WTI crude from the 16 December swing low area of US$55.23 has fizzled out since last Friday, 2 January 2025, and today’s Asian session’s rejection right at the 20-day moving average that acted as a near-term resistance of US$57.98 suggests the bears are still in control (see Fig. 5).A break below US$56.80 may see a further intraday slide on WTI crude towards the next intermediate supports at US$55.75 and US$55.23.On the other hand, a clearance above US$58.76/59.18 short-term pivotal resistance invalidates the bearish bias for an extension of the corrective rebound to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$60.00 and US$60.56. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Traders are slowly getting back to their posts after a well-deserved Holiday break.Following a very positive futures trading session, the official Market open was marked by some repositioning flows from outperforming tech to defensive sectors. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:50 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 2, 2025 A sign for the trading to come in 2026? Tough to say for now.Elevated valuations in the tech sector have been a recurring theme since mid-October. With rate cuts improving the financial positions of high-debt traditional industries, a particular attraction to Industrial and Energy stocks helps the Dow dominate the session.Not much is on the economic or geopolitic schedule, so let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Will the US Dollar make a comeback in 2026? DXY OutlookSilver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?Markets Today: FTSE 100 Breaches 10,000 Mark, Gold Rises 1.8% as UK House Prices Drop to 20-Month LowsDow Jones 4H Chart – Watch the double top zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886Session highs 48,444November ATH 48,300 to 48,500, acting as resistance (testing)50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsPsychological Pivot at 48,000Pre-NFP 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart – Struggling to regain its ATH zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakoutMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart – zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review The US stock markets started 2026 on a high note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying on the first trading day thanks to renewed investor confidence.Technology companies led the comeback, with giants like Nvidia and Broadcom posting strong gains after a few difficult days at the end of December. Although the market missed out on the traditional year-end "Santa Claus rally," the longer-term picture remains very strong; all three major indexes finished 2025 with double-digit growth, marking their third straight year of profits.Read More: Silver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?The Dow Jones specifically closed out the year with an eight-month winning streak, fueled largely by the exploding demand for artificial intelligence technology. On the FX front, the US dollar began 2026 with a slight recovery, rising 0.12% on Friday after a challenging performance last year.In contrast, the Euro slipped by 0.11% to $1.1732, hurt by news that European factory activity has dropped to a nine-month low. Despite this slow start, both the Euro and the British Pound, which also dipped slightly today are coming off their strongest annual gains since 2017.Overall trading activity remained quiet especially in the Asian session as markets in Japan and China were closed for the holiday.Commodities started the day eyeing a recovery following the recent selloff. Gold traded briefly above the $4400/oz before the precious metal wiped out the majority of its daily gains.Silver is down around the 1% mark on the day while Platinum is up just over 1%.Palladium has struggled but is eyeing a move into positive territory, finally. zoom_out_map Source:TradingView The Week Ahead The first full trading week of 2026 marks a sharp transition from the quiet holiday season to a busy schedule of critical economic reports. Market participants are moving on from a strong year where major US stock indexes rose between 16% and 20%, now facing an economy that feels unstable and uneven.The coming week will be dominated by the December US jobs report, manufacturing data from both the U.S. and Europe, and updates on how UK retailers performed over Christmas. These events are happening against a backdrop of stubborn inflation near 3% and growing worries about labor shortages and new trade tariffs.US Markets - Deciphering the "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" ParadigmThe main event for this week is the US employment report coming out on January 9, 2026.This follows a year where hiring gradually slowed down, and experts predict the economy added about 55,000 jobs in December similar to November's modest numbers.However, the way analysts interpret this data is changing significantly. J.P. Morgan notes that because of stricter immigration rules and an aging population, the economy now needs far fewer new jobs to keep unemployment stable. The number of jobs needed to maintain the status quo has dropped from 50,000 a month to as low as 15,000.Consequently, even a relatively low gain of 55,000 jobs would be strong enough to lower the unemployment rate, which is expected to dip from 4.6% to 4.5%The current "stagnant" job market where companies are neither hiring aggressively nor firing workers is largely due to business uncertainty caused by changing trade rules and a recent government shutdown.As a result, most new jobs in December are expected to come from stable industries like healthcare and shipping, while construction and manufacturing struggle under high costs. This cooling labor demand allowed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates late last year, bringing them to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.While market participants do not expect another cut in January, there is currently a 50% chance of a cut in March.However, if the upcoming jobs report is surprisingly weak, it could spark fears of a recession and lead investors to bet on faster interest rate cuts.In the UK, in the United Kingdom, the first full week of January is synonymous with the "Golden Quarter" post-mortem. The retail sector, a cornerstone of the UK economy, faces a rigorous assessment through a series of trading updates from its most prominent entities: Next, Marks & Spencer, Tesco, and J Sainsbury.These reports will offer the first definitive look at how consumers responded to the festive season amidst a backdrop of rising employment costs and a potential "price war" in the grocery sector.This may have a bigger impact than usual on indices after the FTSE 100 passed the 10000 point mark for the first time this week.Asia Pacific MarketsIn the Asia-Pacific region, the week of January 4 is characterized by the return of full market participation following the extended New Year bank holidays in Japan.Market participants are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan this week. While the bank is expected to proceed cautiously, new wage data arriving on January 7 could speed up interest rate hikes if earnings are higher than expected, which would strengthen the Japanese Yen.Attention also turns to China, where inflation data released on January 9 is expected to highlight ongoing problems with falling factory prices. Before that, a key trade report on January 8 will show how well China is coping with global trade tensions; despite new export restrictions on steel and electric vehicles, experts still forecast a massive trade surplus of over $100 billion. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - S&P 500 From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has seen a decent pullback over the last 5 trading days.This has brought the index close to a key confluence level where the 100-day MA and ascending trendline converge.This is around the 6800 handle and could see the index print a higher low before moving higher once more.If this level breaks, support may be found at 6675 and 6650 respectively.On the upside, resistance rests at 6900 before the all-time highs at 6950 comes into focus.S&P 500 Daily Chart, January 2, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

2025 was one hell of a year for trading.From volatility and shifting geopolitics to consistent one-way trends and pivotal rate cuts, every type of trader found their edge this year.The first half was defined by a multi-asset explosion against the US Dollar, as participants aggressively diversified away from two decades of US-centric positioning. With Europe reappearing on the international scene and capital flows moving decisively, the Dollar Index was arguably the most critical chart to track through the first six months. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView To capitalize on this diversification, precious metals were hunted down relentlessly. Gold is up a stealthy 65%, but the most impressive rallies spread to the broader complex. Silver was easily the winner, crushing all expectations with a massive 145% gain since last New Year's Eve. I hope some of our readers followed our post-Jackson Hole guidance to ride that wave. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView Finally, looking at individual names in the equity market, the standout performer has to be Alphabet. Breaking away from its peers and surpassing Nvidia—which saw some downbeat action post-October—the internet giant proved itself as the King of Stocks. Sitting right at the center of the AI revolution with its data centers, chip production, and technological moats, it was the year's undisputed leader. zoom_out_map Google (Alphabet) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView Honorable mention goes to the best-performing precious metals stocks—I invite you to check our full yearly rewind and 2026 expectations right here! Happy New Year, and wishing you successful trading and prosperity in the year ahead.Safe Trades and Sweet Celebrations!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Slides 4.5%: Key Levels to Watch Moving ForwardOil prices edged higher for a second day as markets eye Geopolitical risks as a potential catalyst.However, as has been the case over the last few months of the year neither bulls nor bears appear ready to fully commit. The shifting tone on the geopolitical front have failed to help thus far.Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Moscow accused Ukraine of trying to attack President Putin's residence, which has raised fears that oil supplies might be disrupted. Ukraine denied the claim, calling it false and an attempt to sabotage peace negotiations.However, US President Donald Trump expressed anger about the alleged attack after speaking with Putin. Although Trump still says a peace deal is possible, these rising tensions have led market participants to believe that an agreement will be very hard to reach, which could drive oil prices higher.The question as has been the case for the last few months is, by how much?Middle East Tensions, Iran Protests Traders are worried about rising tensions in the Middle East after President Trump threatened a major strike on Iran if it tries to rebuild its nuclear or missile programs.He also warned Hamas to disarm, hoping to advance the ceasefire agreement with Israel that was reached in October.Oil supply worries grew after Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen against groups supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Saudi Arabia declared its national security was at risk and ordered UAE troops to leave Yemen within 24 hours.Although the UAE was surprised and disappointed by the attack, it later announced that it would voluntarily withdraw its last remaining counterterrorism forces from the country. This conflict between traditional allies has added to market fears about stability in the Middle East.However, even with these fears that conflict could disrupt supplies, analysts believe oil prices will not rise too high because there is currently too much oil available in the global market.Catalyst Ahead - OPEC Meeting There is the first OPEC meeting of 2026 ahead and it could not come at a worse time given the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen.Despite the nature of the disagreement between the two Oil powerhouses, it is unlikely to impact oil markets. This is because OPEC functions by coordinating oil production even when its members strongly disagree on political issues.These two nations have had conflicting goals in Yemen for years and even argued openly about oil production limits in 2021, yet they have always managed to reach agreements to keep the market stable.The real challenge facing OPEC in 2026 is not this diplomatic spat, but rather the economic problem of managing oversupply and falling oil prices. History suggests that as long as the members can agree on the production math, their political arguments will not stop the group from functioning.Whatever the decision at the upcoming January 4 meeting, it does have the potential to be the catalyst that may break oil prices out of its funk. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI continues to struggle with significant sideways movement.Oil is trading in a large symmetrical triangle pattern with a break in either direction hopefully leading to a decent rally this time around.Risks for me personally are still tilted toward the downside, with a break to the upside likely to run out of steam quickly. (This is just based on current dynamics and recent price action).Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, December 30, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to pay attention to:Support57.69 (100-day MA)56.88 (December 17 swing high & December 26 swing low)55.79Resistance58.38 (200-day MA)59.0060.00 (psychological level)Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As the dust settles on a tumultuous 2025, traders are left catching their breath after a year that defied the typical post-election script. If 2024 was the prelude, 2025 was the main event—a year defined by a stark pivot toward American exceptionalism and the revamp of global trade volatility.The year was dominated by the Trump administration’s aggressive "America First" policies, which paradoxically accelerated a global move away from reliance on the US Dollar. While Washington secured new bilateral trade deals with partners, the broader message to the world was clear: the way the global economy functioned the past 50 years is changing.Geopolitically, the "peace through strength" doctrine faced severe tests. The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine did not cease; they merely mutated. While high-level summits—including the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan—offered temporary truces, the underlying friction points remained hot. Meanwhile, central banks across the developed world continued their rate-cutting cycles, providing a liquidity backstop that kept equity markets buoyant despite the political chaos.And who could forget the drama in Tokyo? The "Takaichi Yen-run" will be studied by FX traders for decades.The market positioned aggressively for continued loose monetary policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi – After an 11% drop in USD/JPY throughout the first half of the year, the resulting volatility saw the pair get back to down only 1%.Other currencies which had already strengthened against the dollar saw even wilder runs against the yen. Check out EUR/JPY! zoom_out_map EUR/JPY Weekly Chart, December 30, 2025. Source: TradingView As we turn the page to 2026, the trading landscape shifts from reaction to anticipation. Here is what to expect.Economics: Inflation Fears and Doubts in the US Will Global Inflation Maintain its Path?Will there really be a Soft Landing or just no Landing? While headline inflation moderated in 2025, with doubts regarding to the latest US CPI release, 2026 might reserve some surprises. The full pass-through of 2025’s tariffs should see its effect in the first half of next year.The question for traders is whether this is a one-off level adjustment or the start of a sticky, upward-pressured path. If the latter, the bond market is drastically mispriced.US Economy: Downside Risk vs. AI ProductivityThe US economy is a tale of two sectors. Manufacturing is struggling under the weight of trade disputes, but services—buoyed by the AI boom—remain robust. The wildcard for 2026 is jobs. We are moving past the "AI investment" phase into the "AI implementation" phase. If AI begins to displace white-collar labor at scale, consumer confidence could crack further, tipping the US into a shallow recession by mid-year.Central Banks: The Pivot PointThe US: The Federal Reserve is in a bind. The market is pricing in cuts, but if tariff-driven inflation spikes, the Fed may be forced to hold.Japan: The BoJ remains the outlier. Despite the market’s disbelief, Governor Ueda—backed by a government desperate to defend purchasing power—may deliver further hawkish surprises. The "carry trade" is not dead, but it is dangerous. Watch for a potential hike to 1.0% by Q3, which would send shockwaves through global liquidity.Macroeconomics: The Commodity Scramble The Metal Demand WinnersAs the Debasement Trade evolves, capital is hunting for resource-rich nations with stable governance.Canada could stand out as a primary beneficiary, conditional to a solid US deal.With oil prices stabilizing and a massive surge in demand for critical minerals (copper, nickel, uranium) needed for AI data centers and defense, the Canadian economy could outperform. The Loonie (CAD) could see nice momentum if they manage FX Trends: The Rise of Regional BlocsThe era of global currency correlation is fading. In 2026, keep an eye on whether Multi-Regional Trends persist:North American Bloc: The US and Canada may move in lockstep depending on if the USDMCA Deal gets anchored well.Pacific Bloc: The AUD and NZD should stick together, particularly if the Royal Bank of New Zealand manages to The Old Continent: European currencies have managed to attract quite strong flows between the CHF reaching multi-decade highs against the US Dollar, without mentioning the Euro and Pound having a stellar run. The question stands: Will European currencies hold strong or is their run over?For clues, keep an eye on the US Dollar.De-dollarization: Slow Burn or Forest Fire?The "sell the Dollar" trade was crowded yet successful trade in 2025, but 2026 may see a pause.Now, eyes will be on the US politics and whether dollar sales persist or if the de-dollarization sees an actual slow down or reversal. Keep an eye on the US trade policies, metals and if the Federal Reserve holds rates high. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart, December 30, 2025. Source: TradingView Politics: The Year of the Ballot and the Bench The Federal Reserve AppointmentThis is the single most critical event of Q1. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the nomination process in January will be a market-moving spectacle. President Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates.The Scenario: If a loyalist like Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh is nominated, expect a massive "risk-on" rally in equities and a sharp sell-off in the Dollar, as markets price in a politicized, dovish Fed. The Senate confirmation hearings will be the volatility event of the spring.The Supreme Court & TariffsLegal challenges to the administration's "Reciprocal Tariff" executive orders are heading to the Supreme Court. A ruling is expected by June. If the Court strikes down the President's authority to unilaterally set broad tariffs, we could see a massive deflationary unwind and a rally in global trade proxies (shipping, emerging markets).US Mid-TermsThe 2026 Mid-terms will dominate the H2 narrative. The Senate map puts the Republican majority at risk, with key races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. If polls suggest a "Blue Wave" that could gridlock the Trump agenda, markets may actually cheer the return of legislative paralysis—Wall Street loves a divided government. Read More:The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 OutlookWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Markets Today: Gold, Silver Eye a Recovery as Indices Hold the High Ground. FOMC Minutes Now in FocusGeopolitics: Some Volatile Flashpoints Oil: Center StageAfter a bearish 2025, oil might be on the brink of a reversal. The catalyst likely won't be demand, but supply disruption.Venezuela: The détente is over. The US administration’s patience with Caracas has run out. Expect a return to "maximum pressure" sanctions, effectively removing Venezuelan heavy crude from the Western market. This puts a floor under Brent crude prices.Iran: Tensions are escalating. With Tehran conducting more frequent ballistic missile tests and enriching uranium to near-weapons grade, the risk of a preemptive strike by Israel (or a US-led coalition) is higher than at any point in the last decade. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate "black swan."The Taiwan StraitWhile the Busan meeting cooled temperatures temporarily, the underlying thermodynamics are heating up. Intelligence suggests China is moving its timeline for "reunification readiness" forward. 2026 will likely see an increase in "grey zone" warfare—cyberattacks, blockades, and airspace incursions. For traders, this could see major repricing in risk-assets and the US dollar.Any kinetic escalation around Taiwan would make the 2025 volatility look like a warm-up.Summary 2026 will be a year where economics and politics are inseparable. The "pure" trades are gone. Every position—whether in FX, bonds, or equities—is now a bet on a geopolitic outcomes. Stay nimble, keep an eye on the Supreme Court, and never fight the tape when the Fed Chair changes guard.Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 OutlookGold is experiencing its first major pullback since mid-November as the precious metal is down 4.5% on the day. How far will the current pullback go and what are the key levels to watch?Precious metals and commodities are falling across the board as profit taking and portfolio rebalancing ahead of the new year appear to be driving some volatility following the recent price surge ahead of Christmas day.Commodity Market Snapshot zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Gold is down around 4.5% which is small in comparison to palladium and platinum which have both slipped around 17% and 15% respectively. Silver is also experiencing a double digit drop off on the day, currently down around 12.6% on the day.Geopolitical Hope Aiding the Selloff? Geopolitics had been driving some of the rally particularly from a safe haven perspective ahead of Christmas. US, Venezuela tensions appeared to be on course for a possible military intervention which stoked haven demand.However, the US administration has clarified that they intend to turn up the economic pressure first and see if that yields the desired result.Add to that cautious hope following comments from the U.S. government regarding progress in the Ukraine peace talks, which is acting as a slight drag on haven demand.On Sunday, President Trump stated that he and Ukrainian President Zelensky are getting "very close" to reaching an agreement to finally end the war.What Comes Next for Gold Prices? Investors are closely watching for the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting notes on Tuesday to get a better idea of future interest rates.Currently, traders expect rates to be cut twice next year, which is usually good for assets like gold that do not earn interest.However, gold prices are already very high, and there is a risk they could fall if the Fed surprises everyone by keeping rates high or if large investment funds decide to sell their holdings. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is intriguing to say the least..The selloff today has taken gold into oversold territory while at the same breaching the 50-Day MA and testing the 100-day MA resting at 4321.If Gold can hold above the 100-day MA bulls may regain interest as liquidity returns and push prices higher.The pullback today could be down to profit taking and repositioning and in the current environment there appears to be little bullish pressure to stop the slide.There is of course the probability that the selloff continues and brings lower levels of support into play.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 29, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to pay attention to include$4,321, 100-day MA$4,275, Previous Swing Low on December 16 Before the pre-Christmas Rally$4250, Previous Breakout LevelFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways 2025 FX markets were defined by a tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement”, with fiscal fears and erratic trade policy driving early dollar weakness, while Fed–global policy divergence intermittently revived USD strength.The US dollar fell sharply in H1 2025 (-11.5%), rebounded briefly on renewed US exceptionalism, then settled into consolidation, ending the year down ~10% as the Fed shifted to a more balanced, mildly dovish stance.Non-US currencies broadly outperformed the USD, led by EUR, CHF and AUD, supported by portfolio rebalancing, selective central bank restraint, commodity dynamics, and easing US-China tensions.Improving global growth expectations threaten USD support in 2026, as rising economic surprises and potential pauses in non-US rate cuts could compress the US Treasury yield premium.US liquidity is turning into a structural headwind for the US dollar, with the Fed ending QT and restarting Treasury bill buybacks, lifting net liquidity and historically increasing downside pressure on the USD.Technically, EUR/USD and AUD/USD show bullish continuation signals, while USD/JPY appears vulnerable to a bearish reversal unless it breaks decisively above long-term resistance.2025 recap - A tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement” zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Dollar Index long-term secular trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The defining narrative in the foreign exchange market for 2025 is a tug of war between "US exceptionalism – US dollar strong" and “US debasement – US dollar weak”.At the start of 2025, market consensus leaned heavily toward a bearish outlook for the US dollar, anchored on the new Trump administration’s aggressive fiscal agenda. Deep corporate tax cuts were expected to further widen the US budget deficit, raising concerns over heavier Treasury issuance, weaker demand for US sovereign debt, and upward pressure on long-term yields—dynamics that underpinned the “US Debasement” trade narrative.This view was reinforced by erratic US trade policy execution, which unsettled global markets. The announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs on 2 April 2025 amplified fears that the administration might tolerate—or even encourage—a weaker dollar to enhance US export competitiveness as part of its ambition to reindustrialize the economy around high-tech manufacturing.Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index slid sharply by 11.5% in the first half of 2025 (1 January to 1 July) (see Fig. 1). The sell-off then stalled as the “US exceptionalism” narrative resurfaced, driven by widening monetary policy divergences between the Federal Reserve and other major developed-market central banks.Into the third quarter, the Fed adopted a “wait-and-see” stance amid sticky inflation and a still-resilient US services sector. In contrast, the ECB and BoE struck a more dovish tone as the euro area wrestled with waning confidence tied to Germany’s industrial slowdown, while the UK faced stagflationary pressures. At the same time, commodity-linked currencies suffered a sharp terms-of-trade shock from renewed US-China geopolitical tensions, weighing on the CAD, AUD, and NZD.The Japanese yen also remained under pressure despite inflation running above 2%, constrained by the Bank of Japan’s limited ability to normalise policy decisively amid political and administrative gridlock. With “US exceptionalism” back in focus, the US Dollar Index retraced part of its losses, narrowing its year-to-date decline from 11.5% to 8.4% between 1 July and 31 July (see Fig. 2).That rebound proved short-lived. On 22 August 2025, the Fed’s guidance pivoted decisively dovish when Chair Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, warned that a weakening US labour market posed risks to growth. The dollar subsequently resumed its decline but failed to break the 1 July 2025 low, entering a sideways consolidation.As of 29 December 2025, the US Dollar Index was down 10.3% year-to-date, reflecting the Fed’s more balanced policy stance even as it resumed easing in September with three 25 bps rate cuts, lowering the fed funds rate to 3.5%–3.75% from 4.25%–4.5%.Below is a summary table highlighting the 2025 performance of key currencies and their main drivers. Currency YTD return as of 29 Dec 2025 Performance Profile Key Drivers EUR (vs USD) +12.07% Gradual appreciation, choppy ECB less dovish than Fed, portfolio rebalancing away from higher valuation US mega-cap stocks. GBP (vs USD) +7.32% Modest gains, volatile BoE easing priced in but delayed, commitment to fiscal restraint. CHF (vs USD) +12.85% Tight range, defensive SNB easing caps upside, safe-haven demand in risk-off episodes. CAD (vs USD) +5.00% Episodic strength Oil swings, BoC pause after cuts, strong data surprises. JPY (vs USD) +0.46% Wide range-bound BoJ normalization expectations vs timing of rate hikes constrained by the new Takaichi administration. AUD (vs (USD) +7.89% Range-bound, commodity & risk-on-off sentiment led RBA pause after early easing, iron ore & China swings, risk appetite. NZD (vs USD) +4.10% Underperformed AUD, volatile RBNZ more decisively dovish on weaker domestic growth in H1 but projected no rate cuts in 2026 in its last meeting on 26 November. CNH, offshore yuan (vs USD) +4.37% Soft bias, controlled Weak China data with deflationary risk in Q1 2026, offset by US-China tariffs pause with targeted stimulus. SGD (VS USD) +5.90% Low volatility Improvement in the regional macro environment, easing US-China tensions. Next, we examine the key macro forces likely to shape the US dollar’s trajectory in 2026, followed by three currency pairs to watch from a technical analysis perspective.Improved global growth prospects may reduce the US Treasury yield premium zoom_out_map Fig. 3: World Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: 2 YR & 10 YR US Treasury/sovereign bonds yield spreads with US Dollar Index as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The World Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has extended its upward trend, reaching a 20-month high of 26.80 as of 11 December 2025. Readings above zero indicate that global economic data are consistently outperforming expectations (see Fig. 3).A rising Surprise Index points to improving global growth prospects, which could encourage greater capital allocation toward non-US assets and, in turn, place downside pressure on the US dollar in 2026. Stronger global growth may also lead developed-market central banks such as the ECB, RBA, and BoC to pause their rate-cut cycles, potentially pushing their sovereign bond yields higher.As a result, the US Treasury yield premium, the spread between US yields and those of other major economies, could narrow further into 2026, creating a negative feedback loop for the US dollar. Consistent with this, the US Dollar Index has exhibited a strong positive correlation with the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries relative to an equal-weighted basket of sovereign bonds from Germany, the UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and China (see Fig. 4).An increase in US liquidity may increase the odds of a weaker US dollar zoom_out_map Fig. 5: US Net Liquidity Indicator with inverse of US Dollar Index as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The US Net Liquidity Indicator, constructed by netting the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (liquidity injection) against the combined drains from the US Treasury General Account and the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility, serves as a useful gauge of liquidity conditions in the US financial system. Historically, the indicator shows an inverse relationship with the US dollar, or a direct correlation with the inverse of the US Dollar Index.In simple terms, improving liquidity conditions, reflected by a rising Net Liquidity Indicator, tend to weaken the US dollar, while tightening liquidity, signalled by a falling indicator, typically supports dollar strength. As shown in Fig. 5, the Net Liquidity Indicator surged during the COVID period from February 2020 to December 2021, coinciding with a sustained weakening of the US dollar over the same timeframe.In early May 2022, the Fed announced it would shrink its balance sheet, launching its second round of quantitative tightening (QT) in June 2022. Even ahead of the announcement, the Net Liquidity Indicator had already turned lower between December 2021 and April 2022, which aligned with a sharp rebound in the US dollar from late 2021 through September 2022.Since June 2023, the Fed’s second QT programme has kept US net liquidity largely range-bound, leaving the US Dollar Index trapped in a choppy, upward-sloping trading range over the same period. That backdrop shifted in late 2025.At the 29 October 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed announced the end of QT, effective 1 December 2025, and followed up at its 10 December 2025 meeting with an unexpected restart of Treasury buybacks under its reverse management programme, committing to purchase US$40 billion of short-term Treasury bills per month starting 12 December 2025.In response, the US Net Liquidity Indicator rebounded from its range low of US$5.58 trillion in the week of 27 October 2025 to US$5.7 trillion as of 26 December 2025, alongside a renewed weakening in the US Dollar Index. If the Fed continues its Treasury bill buyback programme, net liquidity is likely to rise further, increasing downside risks for the US dollar.EUR/USD exhibits positive elements to resume bullish leg within major uptrend zoom_out_map Fig. 6: EUR/USD major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 5-month sideways movement of the EUR/USD from June 2025 to early December 2025 is considered a potential consolidation within a three-year major uptrend phase since its low on 28 September 2022, rather than the start of a major topping process.The recent price action of the EUR/USD has managed to stage a rebound after a close retest of the key 200-day moving average (around 1.1470) and has reintegrated back above the 50-day moving average in early December 2025 (see Fig. 6).In addition, the weekly RSI momentum indicator has also staged a corresponding rebound after a retest at its 50 level, which suggests a potential revival of upside momentum for the EUR/USD.Watch the long-term secular support of 1.1230 on the EUR/USD, and a clearance above 1.1940 sees the next major resistances coming at 1.2270 and 1.2540.On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.1230 invalidates the bullish bias for a deeper corrective decline to expose the next major supports at 1.0940 and 1.0495 (also the lower boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel).AUD/USD major bullish breakout from 4-year descending resistance zoom_out_map Fig. 7: AUD/USD major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The AUD/USD has managed to clear above a major hurdle after 4 months of choppy range consolidation from July 2025 to November 2025 (see Fig. 7).After a retest on its key 200-day moving average in late November 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on the week of 1 December 2025, with a weekly close above a former long-term secular descending trendline resistance from February 2021 swing high now turns pull-back support at 0.6605.The weekly MACD trend indicator reinforces the AUD/USD’s major bullish breakout, having produced a bullish crossover above its centreline, signalling a potential shift from a sideways phase into a sustained uptrend.Watch the 0.6400 key long-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD, and right now, it has staged a clearance above 0.6700, where the next major resistances are coming in at 0.6940 and 0.7140 in the first step.However, a break and a weekly close below 0.6400 invalidates the bullish tone for a resumption of the choppy corrective decline phase to retest the next major support zone of 0.5990/0.5810 (COVID period swing low of March 2020).USD/JPY potential bearish reversal towards major range support zoom_out_map Fig. 8: USD/JPY major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Since hitting a 38-year high of 161.95 in July 2024, the USD/JPY has been trapped in a wide sideways range of 15%.The USD/JPY hit the bottom of the range at 140.25 at the end of April 2025 (ex-post US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement) and drifted upwards towards the upper boundary of the major sideways range in the second half of 2025.Right now, it is coming to the tail end of the upper boundary of the major range, with the weekly RSI momentum indicator shaping a bearish reaction at its descending resistance that coincides with its overbought region.These observations suggest that the multi-month up move of the USD/JPY from April 2025 to December 2025 is losing upside momentum, which increases the odds of a bearish reversal back towards the middle part of the range in the first step (see Fig. 8).Watch the 161.95 key long-term secular pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY, with the medium-term support zone coming in at 148.65/145.85 (also the 200-day moving average). A break below 145.85 exposes the major range support zone of 140.25/137.35.On the other hand, a clearance with a weekly close above 161.95 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for the continuation of its major bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next major resistance of 170.70 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It's been a wild ride for Markets throughout 2026.Most catalysts have revolved around the Trump Administration's tariff madness, Geopolitical conflicts, the endangered Federal Reserve's Independence, the pursuit of an AI frenzy, and the setup of the Debasement Trade.And one particular asset class has dominated all five of these major yearly themes—a crossroads of multiple factors that have targeted precious metals.Even with most traders taking their breaks, Platinum (+ 10%!), Gold (+ 1.50%), and Silver (+ 6.50%) are all reaching new all-time highs in today's session. zoom_out_map Gold, Silver and Platinum Daily Charts – December 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView What helped metals to get where they are? The first factor is probably the key to most of the others – US President Trump took office on January 20 and, following his program to the letter, began to announce menacing policies to its enemies as well as to its allies.After intimidating Canada into becoming the 51st state and Greenland being a target for US territorial expansion (threats repeated recently), World leaders have started to doubt the shape of US diplomatic relationships and stability, prompting a significant shift in the US Dollar. Central Banks have amplified an already begun massive diversification trend after 15 years of global US Dollar asset and currency domination.The People's Bank of China continued accumulating massive amounts of Gold as Beijing prepared for yet another trade war, leading a wave of influx into the yellow metal.Gold had already rallied quite extensively as Markets were pricing the end of hiking cycles in 2022 towards asset-boosting cuts, rising from $1,600 to over $4,500 in three years. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 3-Day Chart, December 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:2026 Stock Indices Outlook: Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng poised to outperformMarkets Today: Commodities Extend Gains as Silver Breaches $75/oz, Japan Industrial Output SlidesIt's Christmas already for Metals – Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) Trading LevelsBut Gold Wasn't the Central Target However, Gold wasn't the main target in 2025 – the fact that it sustained its elevated prices even as the Federal Reserve pushed back against rate cuts led to a metals market-wide frenzy.At the beginning of April, Liberation Day had already triggered a first wave of purchases of the precious commodity, as global policies were forced to become less dependent on the now irrational United States policy. Stock Markets marked a bottom, allowing the AI trend to flourish yet again.The market had been volatile but relatively calm until August 2025, when the regime-changing Jackson Hole speech from Powell occurred. zoom_out_map Metals Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView The Post Jackson Hole Regime Change After the Symposium, however, Markets concluded that things would not be the same anymore:The political pressure to cut rates will be harsh, tariffs will put upward pressure on prices yet again, and the Fed's Independence will be even more challenged, prompting immediate fury towards Silver, which then spread to other metals such as Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum and Copper.The rally in metals naturally spreaded to related Equities like Barrick Gold (B), First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), which have all rallied considerably.Exacerbated by immense investments in data centers, power cells, and all the wires and technologies required to create the AI world we know today, metals saw Market-changing and non-stop demand, consolidating without retracing much.Following a calm period in October, the pricing of the December rate cut propelled all metals to all-time highs, and the momentum has continued, even with the ongoing holiday trading.All primary precious metals have either reached or surpassed multi-year highs, with some if not most even setting new all-time records.As 2025 comes to an end, it will be interesting to see what 2026 has in store for the markets.What to watch for the Metals Market in 2026 Central Bank diversification is the first one. Rate cuts are still priced and expected in the US, prompting a further boost as non-yielding assets flourish in the environment.The US Dollar and US Treasuries still represent the significant holdings of global central banks, and American equities are the dominant attractors of capital. Hence, any outflows in such would provide a fundamental underpin to metal prices.Geopolitical turmoil may not subside significantly, and Metals represent strong safe havens in such an environment.Even as conflicts are abating, more are emerging around with the ongoing US-Venezuela tensions, more minor regional conflicts such as Thailand and Cambodia or even the not-seemingly stopping Ukraine-Russia (both nations are huge suppliers of precious metals), but the worst are those which havent made their way to the headlines such as China tensions with japan and Taiwan and Iran potentially making its way to more headlines.Government debt isn't expected to subside soon, as the new geopolitical regime could exacerbate already high levels of debt, further boosting metals.But Things will Surely not be a Straight Line to Record Highs However, some counterarguments could arise.Are prices overextended compared to the current use and fundamental value of the metals? An eternal question in Markets.However, looking at the 2025 yearly close, it doesn't appear that demand is stalling for now.On the other hand, what could make the difference would be if alternative metals begin to squeeze as harshly as Silver and Gold. Platinum and Palladium have begun a catch-up move to their peers. However, metals that still have some room to rally could be copper and aluminum, which are widely used in electronic gear and electricity production.Are the bottlenecks from huge investments into AI still going to be as big in 2026 as supply tries to catch up to the demand? AI spending may not increase, but it will likely continue at least through 2026 and should maintain a high demand bar in the coming years.Will potential unseen inflation be a booster or a diminishing factor for metal prices? Inflation, by itself, boosts metal prices as the relative purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases. However, if another wave forms on the surface and central banks start hiking again, metals might experience some stalling.For example, with the Bank of Japan adopting a progressively more hawkish (yet hesitant) tone, there will be less "cheap" funding for the commodities. Don't forget the Swiss National Bank, which took its rates to 0% in June 2025. It is expected to maintain its rates low for now and will surely haveAn unexpected global slowdown could also slow the demand for tech centers, which would imply a lesser demand for industrial metals.   Despite the volatility in geopolitics and trade, consumption and GDP growth continued on a strong upward path in 2025. With Market bubble fears and slowing hiring, economies may experience at least a slowdown, with a tail risk for the worst.Predicting future flows is a daunting, multi-billion-dollar task where the best in the industry attempt to provide their views on end-2026 prices.I will provide my attempt at forecasts for the final 2026 prices, along with a bearish and bullish case, to offer hypothetical price ranges for primary traded metals.The Bullish Case for Metals – Fiat Debasement and Government Deficit continues Gold $5,500Silver $80Platinum $3,000Palladium $2,750Copper (per pound): $7.50The Bearish Case – Global Demand Slows down as Governments back off their High Spending Gold: $3,500Silver: $45Platinum: $1,800Palladium: $1,700Copper: $5.00Even the most bearish scenarios would result in maintaining the current elevated pricing, as government debt and risks remain elevated. AI and technologies should remain top spending directions for global firms, with electricity production taking the metals trade to the next phase.Things are Subject to significant change as markets are very unpredictable, and the picture will draw progressively as months go by. The rest will be for the future.One thing is for sure: few could have predicted such an erratic year for Markets in 2025.Happy New Year celebrations and a final week of the year.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities stayed resilient in 2025, absorbing tariff-driven trade shocks and US-China tensions, with the iShares MSCI All World Index on pace for a strong third consecutive double-digit annual gain.Asia and several emerging markets led performance, with South Korea, Brazil, and Hong Kong topping year-to-date returns, while the US outperformed only when measured from the April 2025 post-selloff reversal.Rotations and valuation resets shaped regional winners, as capital shifted out of expensive US mega-cap tech into cheaper opportunities across Europe and Asia, with Hong Kong and Japan boosted by supportive liquidity and policy tailwinds.Macro signals now favour a more dovish Fed in 2026, supported by falling inflationary expectations and weaker oil prices, conditions that lower the risk of reigniting inflation and widen the runway for rate cuts.China’s deflation risks are easing, as core CPI stabilises, an improving backdrop that could extend Hong Kong’s multi-month uptrend, particularly if the Hang Seng Index breaks above the long-capped 27,500 resistance.Technical setups point to potential leadership changes, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average positioned for catch-up gains amid a steeper yield curve and strengthening value factors, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index remain in major bullish structures. Global stock markets have extended their bullish momentum from 2024 into 2025, navigating a year marked by significant macro and geopolitical shocks. Chief among them was the US administration’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs on all major trading partners, effectively igniting a new phase of the global trade war.Tensions between the US and China also escalated, with tit-for-tat tariffs and sanctions targeting strategically critical sectors. These included advanced semiconductor chips used for cutting-edge AI models, as well as rare earths essential for magnets in the automotive, electronics, defence, and renewable energy industries.Despite these headwinds, global equities have remained resilient. As of 25 December 2025, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF is on track to finish the year up 21%, marking a potential third consecutive annual gain above 15%, following returns of 17.5% in 2024 and 22.3% in 2023.Against this backdrop, we now turn to a review of the 2025 performances of key global benchmark stock indices and the main drivers behind their moves.The global snapshot of diverging positive trajectories zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of global benchmark stock indices as of 25 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Global benchmark stock indices performance from 7 April 2025 to 25 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Global benchmark stock indices are posting gains across two key reference periods: year to date as of 25 December 2025, and from the “US Liberation Day” market reversal on 7 April 2025 to 25 December 2025. The latter followed a sharp global equity drawdown of roughly 18% from the 18 February 2025 peak to the 7 April 2025 trough, triggered by the US administration’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on 2 April 2025.On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific and emerging markets dominate performance. South Korea’s KOSPI leads with a surge of 71.2%, followed by Brazil’s Bovespa (+33.4%) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (+28.7%). These gains comfortably outpaced US benchmarks, including the Nasdaq 100 (+22.1%), S&P 500 (+17.9%), Dow Jones (+14.5%), and Russell 2000 (+14.3%) (see Fig. 1).Looking at performance from 7 April to 25 December 2025, South Korea’s KOSPI (+76.5%) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+61.9%) remain leaders, while the Nasdaq 100 (+47.2%) ranks among the top four global outperformers (see Fig. 2).In short, 2025 has been a strong year for global equities, but leadership has been uneven. Asia and parts of Europe have outperformed, while US markets have rallied with narrower leadership concentrated in AI-driven, high-productivity themes.What drove the gains Regional rotation and valuation appeal outside the US: Early in 2025, investors rotated out of stretched US large-cap technology stocks into cheaper value opportunities elsewhere. Europe benefited from more attractive valuations and renewed confidence in fiscal expansion and defence spending.Macro and liquidity tailwinds in Asia: Improved liquidity conditions, supportive policy settings, and signs of regional economic recovery underpinned strong equity performance in markets such as Hong Kong and Japan.Below is a summary of the key performance drivers across the major global benchmark stock indices. Index YTD return as of 25 Dec 2025 Key Drivers US S&P 500 +17.9% Strong earnings overall, tech & AI leadership, supportive liquidity, and macro backdrop. US Nasdaq 100 +22.1% Dominated by strength in large-cap tech and AI-related names; investor appetite for “growth/tech” remains elevated. US Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.5% More balanced sector mix; less tech exposure, so less boosted by AI/tech rally. KOSPI (South Korea) +71.2% Surge led by AI- and semiconductor-related stocks (notably large-caps such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix), alongside renewed foreign inflows supported by market-friendly policy shifts and a gradual easing of Korea’s long-standing valuation discount. Nikkei 225 (Japan) +26.3% Strong corporate earnings, supportive domestic policies, and investor rotation into Asia equities. Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong/China-linked) +28.7% Stimulus expectations from China, improved macro sentiment in the region, China's Big Tech catch-up on AI with lower-cost open-source models (eg, DeepSeek), and a global reallocation toward Asian assets. Straits Times Index (Singapore) +22.4% Steady bank earnings, strong balance-sheets, and Singapore’s macro stability, with investors favouring value, dividends, and defensive names even as global rate-cut expectations help support REITs and yield plays. DAX (Germany) +22.3% Defensive sectors, industrial, and value firms benefited from US-NATO fallout, supportive macro (some fiscal/ policy tailwinds in Europe). FTSE 100 (UK) +20.8% Exposure to more stable value sectors; some benefit from defensive/ dividend-oriented demand in an uncertain global environment. Next, we break down the key macro forces that are likely to shape global equity performance in 2026.Macro signals point to a potential dovish Fed in 2026 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven rates with WTI crude oil as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The US Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle in September 2025 after a nine-month pause, delivering three 25-basis-point cuts that brought the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75% as of 2 December 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool at the time of writing, futures markets expect the easing cycle to extend into 2026, with at least two additional 25-bp cuts priced in, lowering the policy rate to around 3.00%–3.25%.The macro backdrop heading into 2026 is increasingly consistent with a more accommodative Fed. Both the 5-year and 10-year US breakeven inflation rates—key measures of long-term inflation expectations—have eased to around 2.24%, down from peaks of 2.62% and 2.42% in February 2025. This contrasts sharply with the inflation surge that culminated in mid-2022 and underscores that inflation expectations are now well anchored (see Fig. 3).At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield has rolled over from its October 2023 highs and continued to trend lower through 2024 and 2025, signalling softer growth momentum that no longer justifies a restrictive policy stance. Crude oil prices have also weakened steadily, trading closer to the mid-US$50s. Historically, sustained declines in energy prices tend to dampen headline inflation and ease cost-push pressures.Taken together, these conditions reduce the risk of a policy-driven inflation resurgence and strengthen the case for further easing. The Fed appears to have both the justification and the flexibility to pursue a more assertive easing path in 2026 to support growth without undermining price stability. A dovish Fed heading into 2026 is therefore likely to remain a key tailwind for the ongoing major bullish trend in global equity markets.We now turn to the technical outlook for three major global stock indices that are likely poised to outperform in 2026.Laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average shows potential outperformance over AI-driven Nasdaq 100 zoom_out_map Fig. 4: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 5: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index major trend as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Financials account for the largest sector weight in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at roughly 27%, which helps explain its relative underperformance versus the Nasdaq 100 in 2025. The Nasdaq 100, with around 64% exposure to the Technology sector, has been the primary beneficiary of the AI-driven productivity narrative.Looking ahead, a continuation of the Fed’s rate-cut cycle into 2026 could set the stage for a rotation within US equities. Lower interest rates tend to favour non-technology stocks with more attractive valuations and resilient earnings growth, raising the likelihood of a catch-up rally as the AI-centric advance broadens beyond mega-cap technology.Rates and factor signals are already hinting at this shift. The US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) has re-steepened from 0.48% on 29 October 2025 to 0.53% on 7 November 2025, coinciding with a bullish breakout in the ratio of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (with a 35% weighting in Financials) relative to the S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 4). In contrast, the ratio of the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (36% weighted toward Information Technology) versus the S&P 500 ETF broke down on 3 November 2025, signalling waning relative leadership from momentum-heavy tech.Taken together, a re-steepening yield curve and the emerging outperformance of the value factor point to improving relative prospects for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026. To preserve its major uptrend, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow futures) needs to hold above the 44,975/44,260 long-term pivotal support zone (see Fig. 5) for a fresh bullish impulsive move, opening up scope for the next major resistances to come in at 49,220/49,670, 51,630, and 53,140/53,590.Conversely, a failure to defend the 44,260 key support level would threaten the broader uptrend and raise the risk of a deeper corrective decline toward the next major supports at 40,830 and potentially 36,620.Next, we turn to what may lie ahead for the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets in 2026.Japan's economy strengthens with robust positive earnings revisions zoom_out_map Fig. 6: Japan Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as of 22 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 7: Japan Citigroup Earnings Revision Index as of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Japan’s economic momentum has strengthened steadily since the start of the year. As of 22 December 2025, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (ESI) for Japan has surged to 60.30, its highest level since 9 October 2023, rebounding sharply from a trough of -52.2 on 6 December 2024 (see Fig. 6). The ESI gauges how incoming economic data compares with market expectations, with readings above zero indicating consistent upside surprises.In parallel, analyst sentiment toward Japanese corporates has turned increasingly positive. Citigroup’s Earnings Revision Index (ERI) for Japan, which measures the balance of upward versus downward EPS forecast revisions, stands at 0.38 as of 19 December 2025, higher than 0.26 recorded on 5 December 2025, according to MacroMicro. Japan now leads major regions on this metric, ahead of the US (0.0), Europe (-0.36), and the UK (0.13), underscoring Japan as the market with the strongest earnings optimism at present (see Fig. 7).Long-term secular Nikkei 225 bulls are still in control zoom_out_map Fig. 8: Japan 225 CFD Index major trend as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Price action in the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for Nikkei 225 futures) has remained firmly within a major bullish trend since its decisive breakout from a 12-month consolidation in early August 2025 (see Fig. 8).The index went on to register a fresh all-time high of 52,664 on 4 November 2025, before undergoing an 8.8% multi-week medium-term correction that bottomed at 48,011 on 21 November 2025.Notably, the pullback found support at the rising 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the ascending channel originating from the 7 April 2025 low of 30,343, signalling that the broader uptrend remains intact.Watch the 45,955 key long-term pivotal support; as long as it holds, the major bullish impulsive up move sequence remains intact, and a break above 52,840/53,310 sees the next major resistances coming in at 56,540/57,130, and 58,520.Conversely, a decisive weekly close below 45,955 would invalidate the bullish bias and raise the risk of a deeper corrective decline toward the next major support zone at 42,520/41,620, also near the 200-day moving average.Deflationary risk has subsided in China zoom_out_map Fig. 9: China inflation and housing price trends as of Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) China grappled with the risk of a deflationary spiral from 2020 to 2024, driven by the pandemic’s aftershocks, the bursting of the property bubble, and a period of less business-friendly policy toward the private sector, most notably the e-commerce industry. These deflation fears fed a negative feedback loop in both China and Hong Kong stock markets, leading to pronounced underperformance versus global peers over the past four years.More recently, however, targeted accommodative measures from Beijing appear to be gaining traction. China’s three-year decline in consumer prices excluding food and energy has reversed, with core CPI rising 1.2% y/y in November 2025, its fastest pace since February 2024, after steadily recovering from a trough of -0.1% in February 2025 (see Fig. 9).The heart of China’s deflation risk remains the property sector, given the powerful wealth effect where real estate accounts for roughly 70% of household retirement assets. A sustained turnaround in property prices would likely lift consumer confidence, revive domestic demand, and reinforce the nascent recovery in core inflation. Against this backdrop, an improving macro environment in China increases the likelihood that the major bullish trend in Hong Kong equities, which began in January 2024, can be sustained.Watch the 27,500 key resistance on the Hang Seng Index zoom_out_map Fig. 10: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index major trend as of 24 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy for Hang Seng Index futures), has extended its multi-month rally to a year-to-date high of 27,401 on 29 September 2025, just shy of its major resistance at 27,500, a long-term descending trendline that has capped previous bullish advances since the all-time high of 33,495 on 29 January 2018 (see Fig. 10).A weekly close above 27,500 would signal a potential major bullish breakout, with the next key resistance levels at 29,420 and 31,120. On the flipside, failure to hold the pivotal long-term support at 22,670 could trigger a deeper corrective decline, potentially targeting the next support zone between 19,700 and 19,030. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Christmas Trading can be both uneventful and chaotic – some traders rush to exit their long-held positions to take a stress-free holiday rest.The absence of counteracting parties leads to more erratic flows, as seen in this morning’s Stock Market action.But away from the traditional Christmas Stock Market trading, Metals trade around global exchanges on a different set of fundamentals.And it seems that they are the most beneficent victims of Santa's flow.Just today, Gold came very close to $4,500 before retracting somewhat, but allowed Silver, Platinum, and Palladium to reach multi-year highs (or set new records in the case of Silver).Ranging from 0.70% for the Yellow Metals to above 5.50% for Platinum and Palladium, they are grabbing all the attention of the few traders that still have skin in the game before 2025 ends. zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Metals, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium It could be the final bouts of volatility for Markets, but keep a close eye on whether geopolitical tensions arise, which could add more fuel to Commodities.As many institutions are out to defend certain products, you can also attempt to capture some rare holiday algorithmic patterns – these require thorough study of charts and may not be found until a while.Let's dive in a quick overview of the daily flows and some short-term trading levels for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD). Read More:Palladium (XPD/USD) on Track for $2,000 as Metals Rally Extends – Price OutlookWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Markets Today: Gold, Silver Extend Gains, Novo Nordisk Rises 7%+ as US GDP Data Lies AheadGold 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView The breakout towards new all-time highs is currently ongoing. Watch reactions when prices reach the $4,575 level (high of the measured move).Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,497 Current all-time HighPotential new ATH resistance (Measured Move) $4,500 to $4,5751.618% Fibonacci Projection $4,687Support LevelsPreceding All-time High Pivot $4,300 to $4,400Key Support and Triangle top $4,200 to $4,24050-Day MA $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major SupportPlatinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum is just going mental at this point.Up 10% in the past 24 hours and not stopping anywhere, it really could attempt a move to catch up to Gold if things continue that way (even if there's quite some way to go towards that target).Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,299 March 2008 All-time HighSession highs $2,275$2,500 Psychological LevelSupport levelsMay 2008 Support $2,050 to $2,100$1,950 Past Day Highs retest support2025 Channel upper bound $1,850 (Mini-Support)2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver is still following closely its upward-channel and hasn't retraced in quite a while.A potential Fibonacci-resistance is coming up at around $71.40 at a confluence with the top of the 4H Channel. Above this there will be not resistance until the $75 psychological level.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:Daily Highs and potential Resistance $70 to $71.40$71.10 Session highs$75 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels:Pivot $65 to $67 at Previous All-time HighsMajor Intraday Support $61 to $63Pre-FOMC Support $58.00 to $60 Safe Trades and Merry Christmas!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rises 1.9% as Global Equities Rise Most Read: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternStock markets around the world are rising as investors feel optimistic about a strong finish to the year, encouraged by recent gains in the US.A key index that tracks global stocks has gone up for three days in a row, reaching its highest level since mid-December, and is predicted to grow nearly 20% in 2025.In Asia, Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.9% because a cheaper currency is expected to help companies that sell goods abroad make more money. Similarly, Chinese stocks saw gains, while Singapore's market reached a new record high.European Session - European Shares On Course to Open Lower European stock markets are expected to open with small losses on Monday, pausing after last week's rally as trading slows down for the short Christmas holiday week.Even with lighter trading activity expected, investor confidence remains high due to renewed excitement about AI companies and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next year. Traders are also less worried about the European Central Bank raising rates in the future.However, there is still some caution as investors watch the war in Ukraine, following comments from Russia that recent peace proposals haven't improved the situation. In economic news, the UK is set to release its final growth figures later today, while early trading shows major European indexes down by roughly 0.1% to 0.2%.On the FX front, the Japanese yen remained very weak on Monday, hovering near record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc.Traders feel confident betting against the yen because the Bank of Japan hasn't signaled any plans to raise interest rates, even though government officials have warned they might step in to support the currency.The yen also sat near an 11-month low against the US dollar and a 17-month low against the Australian dollar. While the US dollar dipped slightly to 157.37 yen, it remains close to recent highs.Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached a new record against the yen, and the Australian dollar climbed to its strongest level since last July.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Silver was the standout performer in commodities, hitting a new record high of $69.44/oz, which brings its total gains for the year to nearly 140%. Gold also increased in value, rising 1.5% to breach $4400/oz.In the energy market, oil prices went up after the US stopped a Venezuelan oil tanker and began chasing another, marking the third such incident in under two weeks. As a result, Brent crude rose 0.8% to $60.96 a barrel, and US crude increased by the same percentage to $56.99 a barrel.Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - GDP Data, US/Asia Events, and Silver's BreakoutPlatinum reaches $2,000; Palladium breaks 2023 Highs – Metals OutlookUSD Stabilizes on CPI Doubts: USD/JPY Ahead of BoJ Decision and FX OverviewEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts It is a quiet day on the calendar for European data releases but there are a few ECB policymakers who will be speaking during the session.The US session is equally quiet from a data perspective with Canadian PPI the only major data release during the session. Markets may focus on rising geopolitical risk as the US ramps up pressure on Venezuela. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is eyeing a pullback this morning.However, given the mood around global equity futures in the Asian session, i wonder whether such a move will prove sustainable?The index is approaching support at the 9850-9860 area with a break below opening up a deeper correction toward the 9800 and 9760 support areas.The period-14 RSI does remain comfortably above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum remaining strong at the present time.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 22. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (19/12/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the Bank of Japan's decision to hike rates and the subsequent health of the yen carry trade. Otherwise, Nick and Jonny discuss the somewhat dovish forward guidance from the Bank of Japan and its impact on world equities and cryptocurrency markets. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Since yesterday's CPI report, metals have been rising through irregular waves, but still rallying more consistently than other asset classes.Platinum (XPT/USD) is once again leading the pack as its push toward decade highs continues, but one metal that we haven't discussed much is Palladium (XPD/USD), which is also printing new multi-year highs.It appears that a new trend for alternative precious metals has begun.Unlike the more popularly traded Gold and Silver, both Platinum and Palladium derive significant value from their extreme rarity and highly specialized industrial uses. zoom_out_map Metal Performance in 2025. December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Palladium is essential to make Power cells, medical equipment, and automobile catalytic converters.After being subject to a gigantic squeeze in 2023, the metal's performance was heavily hindered for a while, but it is now playing catch-up in a high fashion.We will cover the metal in a detailed analysis next week, as we dive into intraday charts and technical levels for Palladium, Platinum, and Gold – Which is attempting a run to its all-time highs. Read More:US Indexes Outlook: Santa Rally finally showing up? – Risk-Appetite improves after US CPI missYen weakness despite higher interest ratesWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Palladium (XPD/USD) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Palladium 8H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Palladium is up a staggering 31% since November 20th and Fed's Williams' Rate Cut indication.Current trading levels are actually overbought, pointing towards a short-term consolidation or retracement.In the event of a retracement, keep an eye on the $1,650 level for bull/bear indications:Bouncing higher from there should see major continuation towards the 2023 Highs of $2,000Breaking lower should test the lower bounds of the Major Ascending Channel around $1,500.Palladium Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levelsSession highs $1,7602023 Highs Resistance $1,800 to $1,830December 2022 Pivot $1,980$3,015 2022 All-time HighsSupport levelsCurrent Pivot $1,650 to $1,670$1,500 Major Psychological SupportNovember Support $1,350$1,100 September Lows SupportPlatinum (XPT/USD) 8H Chart – Breaking $2,000 zoom_out_map Platinum 8H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView To get a detailed analysis of the Metal, don't hesitate to check our recent Silver and Platinum checkup!Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levelsSession highs $2,010May 2008 Pivotal Resistance $2,050 to $2,100$2,300 2008 All-time highsSupport levels$1,950 Past Day Highs retest support2025 Channel upper bound $1,850 (Mini-Support)2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart and Technical Levels – On track to New ATH zoom_out_map Gold 8H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold was struggling to generate momentum as other metals have been stealing its spotlight.After almost wicking to new all-time highs during the CPI session, the precious metal came back to retest its pre-data Support.Holding strongly between $4,300 to $4,350, momentum pulling higher points to an immediate test of the $4,380 record.A clean break may see the Triangle Formation measured move (observed here) to materialize, hinting at $4,450 to $4,500 highs.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,374 CPI Highs$4,380 Current all-time HighsFib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575Session highs $4,350 (and counting)Support LevelsHourly Pivot and Triangle top $4,200 to $4,24050-Day MA $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major Support Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities are closing the week on a better note as the CPI report triggers pricing for further rate cuts in 2026.The roles seem to have reversed compared to last week's Fed Speaker communications. NY Fed President Williams pointed towards a further pause this morning, suggesting the CPI data may have been affected by "distortions," while Goolsbee seemed positively surprised by the inflation figures.But another, more fundamental theme could be lifting stocks:Traders are pricing in the Bank of Japan hitting the brakes on future hikes. After an 11-month pause, the BoJ just hiked rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years.While markets have been concerned that BoJ tightening would diminish carry trade opportunities as rate differentials converge, the central bank's lack of hawkish guidance suggests rates will stay put for a while.This supports prospects for further carry trade-sponsored stock purchases—right on time for a Santa Rally. zoom_out_map Morning US Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Consumer sentiment also just missed again, by a small margin.The real concern is for the Inflation expectations which are ticking up on the short-term – The next report should be interesting.Major volatility could show up ahead as traders get ready for contract expirations of Options and Futures on Indexes, known as Quadruple Witching.Keep that in mind in case you see major movements towards the session and weekly close.Let's dive into our daily outlook and technical levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:WTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Yen weakness despite higher interest ratesNikkei 225: A gradual interest rate hike stance by BoJ maintains the bullish trendSemiconductors and Tech lead the Market Higher zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:21 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 19, 2025 The session is not as widely green as yesterday, but still quite positive. Consumer related sectors (Defensive Equities) are lagging. zoom_out_map Per Sector Stock performance – December 11, 2025. Source: TradingView A strong bounce in Tech!Dow Jones 1H Chart – slow rebound zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The outlook for the Dow is far from negative but questions remain if the recent action is one of a range or a double-bottom.To get a better answer, look at whether buyers manage to break above the 48,460 November Highs.Failing to do so would point to a 48,000 to 48,500 range.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886Session highs 48,350November ATH 48,500, acting as resistance possible range highs)50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsPsychological Pivot at 48,000 – (Range?) lowsPre-NFP Mini-Support 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart – So nothing happened? zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The downtrend in the Nasdaq has officially stalled with short-term action now back in a bull channel.A major test for bulls will once again be the 25,500 Resistance.Failing to break it should lead to rangebound action between 25,000 to 25,500.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakoutMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart – Inverse Head & Shoulders forming? zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 1H Chart could be the most bullish looking one if the Inverse Head and Shoulders materializes.Breaking above 6,850 with high volume would point to a test of the 6,930 All-time Highs or even a few points higher.Sentiment will need to stay positive!S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.