The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 8bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Gold is under pressure from a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields Markets are repricing for fewer rate cuts and possible renewed tightening Oil shock is lifting inflation fears, which is pushing real-rate expectations higher Safe-haven demand is rotating partly into the US dollar rather than gold Profit-taking is also likely after gold’s powerful multi-month rally Reuters reported gold fell 1.8% on Friday amid higher yields and dollar strength Despite the pullback, gold remains historically elevated after record-setting gains The next move depends on whether yields keep rising faster than geopolitical fear supports bullion Gold is being hit by a classic but brutal mix of macro forces: a stronger US dollar, rising Treasury yields, and a sharp repricing of global interest-rate expectations as the Middle East war drives oil higher and revives inflation fears.While bullion would normally be expected to thrive during a geopolitical crisis, the current market backdrop has complicated that traditional safe-haven story. Gold fell 1.8% on Friday to around $4,560 an ounce after news of additional US troop deployments to the Middle East helped lift the dollar and bond yields. The metal, which offers no yield, tends to struggle when investors can earn more from cash and government bonds. As the war has pushed oil sharply higher, investors have started abandoning hopes for monetary easing and instead pricing in a more hawkish central-bank path. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to around 4.39%, while the dollar index strengthened as markets sought safety and began reassessing inflation risks. In that environment, gold loses one of its biggest tailwinds: expectations of falling rates. This matters because the current shock is not a simple “risk-off equals gold up” setup. It is increasingly being treated as an energy-driven inflation shock. Higher oil means stickier inflation, and stickier inflation means rates may stay higher for longer, or in an extreme scenario, central banks may even need to lean tighter again. That dynamic is bearish for non-yielding assets at the margin, even if geopolitical anxiety remains elevated. There is likely also an element of profit-taking. Gold has had an enormous run. Record highs in late December 2025, and several major banks had already lifted long-term forecasts this year, including JPMorgan and UBS. When a market is crowded and heavily in profit, it becomes more vulnerable to sharp air pockets once the macro backdrop turns less supportive. That does not mean the broader bull story is dead. Geopolitical stress, elevated oil, and structural demand for hard assets can still support bullion over time. But in the short run, gold is being treated less as a pure crisis hedge and more as an asset caught between safe-haven demand and the headwind of rising yields.What’s hitting gold at present? The key factors look to be:Gold’s biggest problem right now is real-rate pressure. The market is shifting from “central banks will cut” to “central banks may need to stay restrictive for longer,” and that lifts the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Reuters explicitly linked Friday’s drop to a stronger dollar and higher yields. Second, the US dollar is absorbing some of the haven bid, the dollar gaining as conflict risks intensified, which can cap or reverse gold gains because bullion is priced in dollars. Third, the oil shock is inflationary in the wrong way for gold near-term. Inflation can be gold-positive over the long run, but when it causes markets to price out cuts and push yields up immediately, bullion can sell off first. Fourth, after a huge rally, positioning and profit-taking are likely making the move more violent than the headlines alone would suggest. Reuters has documented both the earlier record highs and the large bank forecast upgrades that helped frame gold as a crowded bullish trade.Where to now? Near term, gold probably trades off a tug-of-war between yield pressure and fear pressure.If oil keeps pushing higher, bond yields keep climbing, and markets continue to price fewer cuts or even renewed tightening, gold could stay heavy or remain stuck in a volatile consolidation phase. That is the cleaner bearish scenario for the metal. But there is another path. If the conflict worsens enough to damage broader risk sentiment, destabilise credit, or undermine confidence in financial assets more broadly, gold could regain its crisis bid even with yields elevated. In other words, mild-to-moderate geopolitical stress has recently helped the dollar more than gold, but a deeper shock could flip that balance back in bullion’s favour. That inference is consistent with gold rising during earlier phases of the conflict when safe-haven demand was more dominant. So the short version is this: gold’s next leg depends on whether the market focuses more on higher rates or on outright systemic fear. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan ramps up FX warnings as oil-driven volatility pressures the yen, with authorities signalling readiness to intervene while also deploying fiscal support to offset rising energy costs.Summary:Japan signals readiness to act against FX volatility Top currency diplomat Mimura flags impact of oil-driven speculation on FX Comments reinforce concern over rapid yen moves amid global energy shock Government also preparing fiscal response via fuel subsidies Japan to deploy ~¥800bn from reserves to curb gasoline prices Policy mix reflects dual pressure from weak yen and rising energy costs Intervention risk remains elevated if FX moves become disorderlyJapanese authorities have stepped up their warning on foreign exchange volatility, signalling a readiness to act as global energy-driven market moves spill into currency markets.Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said the government is prepared to take action “on all fronts” in response to excessive FX volatility, underscoring growing concern over the pace and drivers of yen moves. He also highlighted that speculative activity in oil markets is increasingly feeding through into foreign exchange, linking recent currency fluctuations to broader geopolitical and energy price dynamics.The remarks come at a time when global markets are grappling with a sharp rise in oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. For Japan, which is heavily reliant on energy imports, the combination of higher oil prices and a weaker yen presents a double hit, pushing up import costs and intensifying inflation pressures.Authorities appear increasingly sensitive to the risk that speculative flows, rather than fundamentals, are driving currency moves. Analysts say this distinction is key, as it often determines whether officials escalate verbal warnings into direct intervention in the FX market.Alongside its currency stance, the Japanese government is also preparing fiscal measures to cushion the domestic impact of rising energy costs. According to local media reports, around ¥800 billion will be deployed from budget reserves to help stabilise gasoline prices, signalling a coordinated effort to manage both market volatility and household cost pressures.The combination of verbal intervention and fiscal support highlights the balancing act facing policymakers. While authorities aim to prevent disorderly currency moves, they are also seeking to mitigate the economic fallout from higher energy prices without destabilising public finances.Market participants say the latest comments reinforce the risk of potential intervention if yen weakness accelerates further or becomes detached from underlying economic conditions. With oil markets remaining volatile and geopolitical risks elevated, the yen is likely to remain highly sensitive to both commodity price swings and policy signals in the near term.---Japan’s “top currency diplomat” refers to the senior Finance Ministry official responsible for overseeing foreign exchange policy, typically the Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs. This role involves coordinating FX policy, issuing verbal warnings, and authorising currency intervention when needed. While the Bank of Japan executes interventions operationally, decisions are led by the Finance Ministry, making this position the key public voice on yen policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Saudi pipeline lifeline cushions oil shock, but risks of further disruption remain high.Summary:Saudi Arabia activates East-West pipeline to bypass Hormuz disruption Pipeline reroutes crude to Red Sea port of Yanbu amid Gulf closure Exports from Yanbu surge to ~3.6–4.0mb/d, around half pre-war levels Move helps offset loss of ~20mb/d flows typically passing through Hormuz Pipeline seen as key “relief valve” preventing more severe oil spike Infrastructure remains vulnerable, with Yanbu already targeted Shipping costs surge as tanker demand spikes in Red Sea Regional push underway to diversify export routes beyond HormuzSaudi Arabia has activated a decades-old contingency plan to maintain oil exports amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, positioning its East-West pipeline as a critical stabilising force in global energy markets.The pipeline, stretching roughly 1,200 kilometres across the kingdom, connects oil fields in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Originally developed during the Iran-Iraq war as a safeguard against Gulf disruptions, the infrastructure has now become central to Saudi Arabia’s response to the current crisis.Following the escalation of conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, flows through Hormuz, which typically handles around one-fifth of global oil supply, have been severely curtailed. In response, Saudi Aramco has rapidly rerouted crude shipments via the East-West pipeline, enabling exports to continue despite the blockage.Ship-tracking data indicates that crude exports from Yanbu have surged to a five-day average of approximately 3.6 million barrels per day, with peak loadings exceeding 4 million barrels per day. While this represents only about half of Saudi Arabia’s pre-crisis export capacity, it has provided a crucial buffer to global supply disruptions.Analysts say the availability of this alternative route has helped prevent a more severe spike in oil prices, with Brent crude already trading above $110 per barrel following a sharp rally since the conflict began.However, the workaround is not without risks. Infrastructure along the Red Sea route, including facilities at Yanbu, has already come under attack, highlighting the vulnerability of even alternative supply lines. In addition, vessels shipping from Yanbu must still navigate the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategic chokepoint with its own security concerns.The crisis has also led to a sharp increase in shipping costs, as tanker demand rises and operators scramble to reposition vessels. Saudi Arabia’s ability to sustain flows will depend not only on pipeline capacity but also on the availability of shipping and the security of export routes.The situation underscores the importance of long-term strategic planning, with infrastructure built decades ago now playing a central role in mitigating one of the most severe disruptions to global oil markets in recent years. What happens next?The current crisis marks a turning point for global energy markets, with both short-term and structural implications now coming into focus.In the near term, markets will remain highly sensitive to developments around Hormuz. If the waterway remains effectively closed, Saudi Arabia and other producers will continue relying heavily on alternative routes, though these are unlikely to fully compensate for lost capacity. This suggests ongoing tightness in supply and a sustained geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.Attention will also shift to the resilience of these backup systems. The East-West pipeline is now a critical artery, but its exposure to potential attacks raises the stakes significantly. Any sustained disruption to Yanbu or the pipeline itself would represent a major escalation, with potentially severe consequences for global supply.Beyond Saudi Arabia, other regional producers are exploring contingency options. The UAE and Iraq have partial bypass routes, while Oman is positioning its Duqm port as a potential alternative hub. However, these solutions are limited in scale and face their own logistical and security challenges.Over the medium term, the crisis is likely to accelerate investment in energy infrastructure designed to reduce reliance on chokepoints. This includes pipelines, storage facilities, and diversified export routes. Governments may also increase strategic stockpiling, reflecting a growing recognition of supply concentration risks.For markets, the key question is whether this الأزمة represents a temporary disruption or the beginning of a more persistent shift toward higher structural oil prices. If geopolitical tensions remain elevated, analysts say the global energy system may operate with a permanently higher risk premium, reshaping pricing dynamics and investment decisions for years to come. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bearish for UK bonds (higher yields) and negative for growth outlook; supports inflation expectations and hawkish BoE repricing, with spillover risk to global fixed income markets.Summary:UK PM Starmer convenes emergency “COBRA” meeting on Iran war fallout Finance minister Reeves and BoE Governor Bailey to attend Focus on energy security, inflation, and economic resilience UK particularly exposed due to reliance on imported gas Inflation risks seen rising toward ~5% amid energy price surge Market pricing shifts toward potential BoE rate hikes UK 10-year gilt yields surge above 5% for first time since GFC Investor concerns grow over fiscal vulnerability and support measuresThe UK government is stepping up its response to the escalating Iran conflict, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to chair an emergency meeting focused on the economic fallout and rising risks to financial stability.The high-level “COBRA” meeting will bring together key policymakers including Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, alongside senior cabinet ministers responsible for foreign affairs and energy. Officials are expected to assess the impact of the crisis on households, businesses, energy security, and supply chains, as well as coordinate the UK’s broader international response.The move comes as markets brace for heightened volatility, with geopolitical tensions threatening to trigger a renewed energy price shock. Iran has warned it could target energy and water infrastructure across the Gulf if tensions escalate further, raising the risk of sustained disruption to global oil and gas flows.The UK is seen as particularly vulnerable to such shocks due to its heavy reliance on imported natural gas, persistent inflation pressures, and already strained public finances. Analysts say these factors have contributed to a sharper sell-off in UK government bonds compared with other major economies.Bond markets have reacted aggressively. The yield on the UK 10-year gilt has surged above 5% for the first time since the global financial crisis, reflecting a rapid repricing of inflation and interest rate expectations. Initially, the sell-off was concentrated in shorter-dated bonds, but it has since broadened across the curve, suggesting rising concerns about both monetary policy tightening and fiscal sustainability.Economists warn that the surge in energy prices could push UK inflation back toward 5% later this year, reversing recent progress and complicating the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Markets have already shifted from expecting rate cuts to pricing in the possibility of further tightening, although policymakers have signalled it is too early to commit to a specific path.At the same time, the government faces mounting pressure to support households and businesses through another cost-of-living squeeze. While targeted measures are being considered, broader fiscal intervention risks undermining efforts to stabilise public finances, potentially forcing difficult policy trade-offs in the months ahead.Analysts say the combination of geopolitical risk, inflation pressures, and fiscal constraints is pushing the UK into a more fragile position, with markets increasingly sensitive to any signs of policy missteps as the crisis evolves. -COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms) is the UK government’s emergency response committee, convened to coordinate decision-making during major crises such as security threats, natural disasters, or economic shocks. Chaired by the Prime Minister or a senior minister, it brings together key officials, including ministers, intelligence agencies, and relevant departments, to share information, assess risks, and agree on rapid policy responses. COBRA is not a standing body but is activated as needed to ensure a unified, cross-government approach during high-impact events. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs raises oil forecasts as extended Hormuz disruption and structural supply risks lift long-term price expectations.Summary:Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on prolonged Hormuz disruption Bank now assumes flows operate at ~5% capacity for six weeks Recovery expected to take an additional month thereafter Structural risks seen driving higher long-term oil prices Concentration of supply and spare capacity flagged as key concern Strategic stockpiling likely to increase globally Brent 2026 forecast raised to $85 (from $77) WTI 2026 forecast lifted to $79 (from $72)Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026, citing an extended disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and growing structural concerns around global supply concentration.In a revised outlook, the bank now assumes that oil shipments through the critical Middle Eastern chokepoint will operate at just 5% of normal capacity for a prolonged six-week period. This represents a more severe and sustained disruption than previously expected. Goldman further anticipates that restoring flows will take an additional month, pointing to a gradual rather than immediate recovery in supply.Analysts say this revised scenario reflects a reassessment of geopolitical risks in the region, with the ongoing conflict raising the probability of extended supply outages. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy markets, and even partial closures can have an outsized impact on prices due to its central role in transporting crude exports.Beyond the near-term disruption, Goldman Sachs also highlighted longer-term structural shifts in the oil market. The bank noted that the high concentration of global production and spare capacity, largely centred in a small number of countries, is likely to drive a more sustained risk premium in oil prices. Analysts say this dynamic is expected to encourage increased strategic stockpiling by governments and market participants, reinforcing upward pressure on longer-dated crude prices.Reflecting these changes, Goldman Sachs has lifted its average price forecast for Brent crude in 2026 to $85 per barrel, up from $77 previously. The bank also raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $79 per barrel, compared with an earlier estimate of $72.The revisions underscore how geopolitical tensions are not only shaping short-term price volatility but are also beginning to influence longer-term expectations for supply security and pricing dynamics. Analysts say that even if flows eventually normalise, the market may retain a higher structural risk premium given the vulnerabilities exposed by recent disruptions. Trump is bogged down in the Middle East, unable to end the war nor free up oil flows This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Blackstone’s BCRED posted its first loss in over three years, down 0.4% in Feb, as private credit faces rising liquidity concerns. Investor withdrawals surged and banks tightened lending, signalling growing stress across the sector.In via Reuters. Summary:Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund posts first loss in over three years BCRED declines 0.4% in February amid broader leveraged loan weakness Investor concerns grow over liquidity and credit quality in private credit Elevated withdrawals hit fund, with $3.7bn pulled in Q1 Loan markdowns linked to select exposures, including software sector names Major banks tightening lending to private credit industry Other asset managers move to limit withdrawals amid redemption pressure Blackstone shares down sharply year-to-date as sector sentiment deterioratesBlackstone’s flagship private credit fund has recorded its first monthly loss in more than three years, highlighting mounting stress within the rapidly growing but increasingly scrutinised private credit sector.The firm’s $82 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED) reported a decline of 0.4% in February, marking its first negative monthly return since September 2022. The move came alongside broader weakness in credit markets, with leveraged loans also falling during the month, underscoring a more challenging environment for risk assets.The loss has drawn renewed attention to vulnerabilities within private credit, a market that has expanded significantly in recent years as banks retreated from certain forms of lending. Analysts say concerns are building around liquidity risks, limited transparency, and exposure to weaker segments of the economy, particularly sectors such as software, where earnings sensitivity and leverage can be elevated.Investor behaviour is already reflecting this shift in sentiment. BCRED experienced a notable surge in withdrawals during the first quarter, with roughly $3.7 billion redeemed, a larger-than-usual outflow that signals rising caution among investors. While the fund allows periodic liquidity, the increase in redemption requests has added pressure to manage cash flows and asset valuations.Part of the decline in February was linked to markdowns on a small number of underlying loans. Reports suggest these adjustments included exposure to companies in the technology and software space, where valuations have come under pressure amid tighter financial conditions.Despite the setback, Blackstone has sought to reassure investors, highlighting the fund’s long-term performance and its ability to outperform broader leveraged loan benchmarks since inception. However, analysts say the recent loss may act as a catalyst for broader scrutiny of the asset class.The pressure is not limited to Blackstone. Across Wall Street, banks have begun tightening lending standards to private credit funds, reflecting a more cautious stance toward the sector. Some major asset managers have also introduced limits on investor withdrawals following a rise in redemption requests, signalling growing strain on liquidity across the industry.The developments come as Blackstone’s own share price has fallen sharply this year, reflecting investor concerns that the private credit boom may be entering a more difficult phase. As market conditions tighten, the sector’s resilience, particularly in the face of rising defaults or sustained outflows, is likely to face increased testing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump threat and Iran right back at ya!:Oil rises as Trump ultimatum to Iran fuels Hormuz escalation risksIran has named the specific targets they will go after, all civilian water and power plants. Trump remains unable to get Hormuz reopened and oil flows back online. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fitch outlook cut puts New Zealand’s fiscal path under scrutiny and lifts yields.Summary:Fitch revises New Zealand outlook to Negative, affirms AA+ rating Concerns centre on delayed fiscal consolidation and rising debt Government debt projected to peak around 56% of GDP by FY27 Timeline for return to surplus pushed out to FY30 Economic recovery expected but risks remain from external shocks Iran conflict flagged as inflation and growth risk via energy channel Elevated current account deficit and high household debt persist NZ bond yields rise to ~1-year highs following outlook downgradeFitch Ratings has revised New Zealand’s sovereign outlook to Negative from Stable while affirming its AA+ credit rating, citing growing challenges around fiscal consolidation and a slower-than-expected path to debt reduction.The agency flagged that government debt has risen significantly in recent years following a series of economic shocks, and is now expected to climb further before stabilising. Gross government debt is projected to reach around 56% of GDP by the fiscal year ending 2027, up from 53.6% in FY25, with a return to those earlier levels not expected until the end of the decade. This trajectory marks a sharp deterioration from projections underpinning New Zealand’s 2022 rating upgrade.Fitch also highlighted continued delays in fiscal repair, with the government’s preferred budget balance measure now expected to return to surplus in FY30, a target that has been repeatedly pushed back. Analysts say the slippage reflects a combination of weaker economic growth and more persistent spending pressures than initially anticipated.In the near term, fiscal deficits are expected to widen further before gradually narrowing. A more meaningful consolidation effort is likely only after the country’s 2026 election, creating additional uncertainty around the policy path, although there remains broad political agreement on the need to stabilise public finances.Despite these challenges, New Zealand retains key credit strengths, including strong institutions, a credible policy framework, and a wealthy, developed economy. Government balance sheet buffers, such as sizable sovereign assets and cash holdings, also provide some resilience.The economic outlook is improving, with growth forecast to rebound to around 2.8% in 2026 and 2027 following a weak 2025. However, vulnerabilities remain, particularly given New Zealand’s reliance on external financing and exposure to global shocks. The current account deficit, while narrowing, remains elevated, and household debt levels are high.Fitch also pointed to rising geopolitical risks, noting that the ongoing Iran conflict could impact New Zealand through higher energy prices, increased inflationary pressures, and potential weakening in global demand.Markets reacted to the outlook revision, with New Zealand government bond yields climbing to their highest levels in roughly a year as investors priced in a more uncertain fiscal trajectory. While the rating itself remains unchanged, the Negative outlook signals a heightened risk of a downgrade if fiscal or economic conditions deteriorate further.The kiwi $ is lower to open the new week, with Middle East developments a major negative. Oil rises as Trump ultimatum to Iran fuels Hormuz escalation risksGulf shipping risks rise after blast near vessel off UAE Sharjah coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gulf shipping risks intensify as projectile incident near UAE signals widening threat zone.Trump isn't helping:Summary:Explosion reported near bulk carrier off Sharjah coast, crew unharmed Incident linked to rising attacks on commercial vessels in Gulf waters Blast occurred close to vessel, suggesting it may have been targeted Similar projectile incident reported near Qatar days earlier Maritime security risks spreading beyond core Hormuz chokepoint Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted Iran-linked retaliation continues to target regional energy infrastructure Elevated risks for shipowners, insurers, and global energy supply chainsMaritime security risks in the Middle East have intensified further after an explosion from an unidentified projectile was reported near a commercial vessel off the coast of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates.According to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the incident occurred late Saturday around 15 nautical miles north of Sharjah. The blast was recorded at approximately 23:08 GMT on March 21 and detonated close to a bulk carrier, raising the likelihood that the vessel itself was the intended target. Despite the proximity of the explosion, no direct strike was confirmed and all crew members were reported safe.The incident marks the latest in a growing number of attacks and near-misses involving commercial shipping across Gulf waters since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran roughly three weeks ago. Analysts say the pattern of activity suggests a broadening risk environment for maritime traffic in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil and gas shipments.Earlier in the week, a similar projectile-related event was reported near Ras Laffan in Qatar, reinforcing concerns that threats are no longer confined to a single flashpoint but are spreading across multiple shipping lanes in the region. The expanding geographic footprint of these incidents is heightening uncertainty for vessel operators, insurers, and energy traders alike.Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly constrained, with only limited vessel movement recorded since hostilities began in late February. The disruption has already contributed to tightening global supply conditions and increased volatility in energy markets.At the same time, Iran’s retaliatory actions have extended beyond maritime threats, with missile and drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure across several Gulf states. Analysts say the convergence of risks — both at sea and on land — is compounding pressure on regional stability and raising the probability of further escalation.With security conditions deteriorating and no clear path to de-escalation, market participants are increasingly factoring in prolonged disruptions to shipping routes and energy flows, keeping geopolitical risk firmly embedded in oil prices and broader market sentiment. Trump remains unable to deescalate and get oil flowing again:Oil rises as Trump ultimatum to Iran fuels Hormuz escalation risks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Escalating US-Iran brinkmanship over Hormuz puts oil markets on edge and risks deeper supply shocks.Summary:Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz Iran warns of retaliation targeting US, Israeli, and Gulf energy infrastructure Brent closes near four-year highs as geopolitical risk intensifies Analysts see rising escalation risk driving further upside in oil prices Hormuz disruption has already removed ~440 million barrels of supply Risk of strikes on desalination plants raises humanitarian concerns IEA warns restoring Gulf supply could take up to six months Reports suggest US considering blockade or seizure of Iran’s Kharg IslandOil markets head into the new week on edge, with prices poised to extend gains after a sharp escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran centred on the Strait of Hormuz.US President Donald Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran, demanding the immediate reopening of the critical energy corridor or facing potential strikes on Iranian power infrastructure. The deadline is set to expire Monday evening in New York, placing markets on high alert for further developments.Iran has responded with a stark warning, signalling that any US attack would trigger a broad retaliation campaign targeting American- and Israeli-linked energy assets across the Gulf. Officials have also indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could be shut indefinitely, raising the risk of a severe and prolonged disruption to global oil flows.Analysts say the standoff represents a significant escalation in the conflict, with both sides appearing willing to raise the stakes rather than de-escalate. The confrontation has injected a fresh layer of geopolitical risk into energy markets, with traders bracing for further volatility as the deadline approaches.Oil prices had already surged into the weekend, settling at its highest level since mid-2022 on Friday. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of sustained supply disruptions, particularly given the strategic importance of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil shipments pass.Since the conflict began, disruptions linked to the partial closure of the Strait have already removed an estimated 440 million barrels of supply from global markets. Iran has also targeted ports and refinery infrastructure across several Gulf states, though it has so far avoided strikes on major desalination facilities that supply water to millions.Analysts warn that any damage to these facilities could trigger a humanitarian crisis, with some Gulf cities at risk of becoming uninhabitable within weeks due to water shortages and cascading power failures.Looking ahead, the potential recovery of disrupted supply is expected to be slow. Energy officials estimate it could take up to six months to fully restore flows, even if conditions stabilise. Meanwhile, reports suggest the US is considering more aggressive measures, including a blockade or seizure of Iran’s key export hub at Kharg Island, further underscoring the risk of escalation.- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is a little higher in early indications. Pretty soon wholesale market participants will be getting active and machines will be switched on. Until then, like I said above, its thin and scatty. Take care. I'll be back with weekend baloney news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Here is the latest from Trump:We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others. The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMPNotably, this came out after the market closed. In the past three weeks, he's escalated things immediately after the market closed. This time, he's de-escalating or at least indicating that he could leave.What he's hinting at here is a strategy that many have speculated about, including us. He will simply declare 'mission accomplished' and leave the mess for everyone else to clean up.He said the Strait will "need to be guarded and policed... by other nations who use it", ruling out the USA. He did say the US will help if asked but I imagine that would come at a high price. He also has pivoted from saying that securing the Strait will be easy for the US (this morning) to that it will be "easy ... for them".Regardless of the politics, this post significantly diminishes the chance of a US land invasion or a protracted war. It sounds like Trump is planning to bail out and leave Iran's regime in place. Now we will have to wait to see what the plan is from Iran and Gulf countries. I can see Iran demanding that those countries close US bases. In any case, there is a statement from Europe, Japan, Canada and Bahrain saying they're willing to join efforts for Hormuz safe passage. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump says reopening Hormuz "a simple military manoeuver" with "so little risk"US made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran - reportUS assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six monthsIran unwilling to discuss Hormuz while under attack - reportCanada January retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5% expectedCanada February producer price index +0.4% m/m vs +1.1% expectedFeds Waller: If oil stays high for months on end, at some point it bleeds into inflationFed's Bowman: I am still concerned about the jobs marketThe Fed funds futures market is now pricing in a 30% chance of a US rate hikeTrump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of HormuzMarkets:Gold down $143 to $4502US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.39%Silver down 6.7%Bitcoin down 0.8%WTI crude oil up $2.60 to $98.09S&P 500 down 1.7%I'm not sure if we're at maximum fear yet but we are close. There was nowhere to hide on Friday as the market increasingly feared a weekend escalation, or worse, saw signs of a quagmire. In the US morning, Trump called NATO allies cowards and said it will be "so easy" to reopen Hormuz and just before the market close, eh said "you need a lot of help" to reopen it. That kind of talk has the market increasingly believe there is no real plan here and that Trump expected Iran to surrender.Instead, Iran is insisting on a ceasefire before even talking about opening Hormuz while Trump has rejected that.It was a bloodbath throughout markets as oil was the oil place to hide. Bonds were beaten up again as the market now sees a 30% chance of a Fed hike this year as one-year implied inflation rates rose to 5.3%.Naturally, stocks fell with global markets down 2-3% and both the Nasdaq and Russell now down 10% from their hights, a technical correction. The S&P 500 is in its worst four-week loss since the period ending April 18. It was also the worst day in a month.Gold was caught in the crossfire in the third day of heavy selling. It fell below $4500 for the first time since early February and silver was battered. Both were set to close near the lows.In the FX market, the US dollar re-asserted itself and recouped some of the decline from yesterday. It was particularly strong in USD/JPY where Japan looks increasingly vulnerable to an inflationary shock from energy prices. If there's any silver lining, it's that sentiment is extremely bad with every commentator talking about oil-maggedon and a protracted closure of Hormuz. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The index closed at 45577.47The S&P 200 day MA is at 6621.73. The index closed at 6506.48The Nasdaq 200 day MA is at 22248.94. The index closed at 21647.61For the trading week: Dow fell -2.11%S&P fell -1.90%Nasdaq fell -2.07%Super Micro Computer tumbled on the back of charges from the Justice Department of smuggling Nvidia chips to China. From the gainers oil is higher by 2.8% and so are oil stocks led by Occidental, Exxon . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

At a certain point, the Strait will open itselfI think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to endI don't want to do a ceasefireWe can have dialogue but I don't want to do a ceasefireOn Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan got involvedOn UK help: A very late response, they should have acted fasterSays lacks radar, aircraft, and leadership, with a firm stance against a ceasefireWe have unlimited ammunition and a lot of troopsOn oil prices, Trump said he expected worseRepeats that operation is "weeks ahead" of scheduleWe don't need to Strait of HormuzSo the context of the ceasefire comment is that Iran said it won't negotiate without a ceasefire while Trump is saying they can "have dialogue" but that he doesn't want a ceasefire.So, basically, they can't even agree on the terms for talking."We can have dialogue, but I don't want to do a ceasefire," Trump says about Iran. "You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side."Trump still seems to be aiming for an unconditional surrender. We'll see. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it alone. The market doesn't believe it as Brent crude oil is now up $4 to $112.68. There is also a crunch in natural gas, fertilizer, sulpher and other goods that normally flow from the area.With that, US 12-month inflation breakevens are now up to 5.3%. That's a potentially crushing number of the US economy as it would almost certainly force the Fed to hike rates.That's the highest level since March 2023 and comes in stark contrast to the disinflationary impulses we saw in December.It truly looked like the Fed was on its way to conquering inflation and now that's all come undone. Earlier today, we got comments from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman that sounded like they were throwing in the towel on rate cuts, at least if the current energy regime continues. A year of +5% inflation would be badly damaging to the Fed's credibility as they haven't achieved their target at any point this decade.In terms of the Fed curve, there are now 7 bps of hikes priced in through December. That's a dramatic reversal from in February when pricing was for 60 bps of easing in that time frame. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure.This week marks an important technical shift, as both indices have now moved below their 200-day moving averages (Green line on the chart below) for the first time since May 2025. That break weakens the longer-term bullish bias and suggests that sellers are gaining firmer control.Focusing on the S&P 500, the index has now extended below the November low at 6521.92, taking out a key support level. With that break, the chart opens up, and there is limited support until the 6352 level, followed by a deeper target near 6212. Beyond that, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low comes in at 6174.39, which represents a more significant correction zone.If the price were to extend toward that retracement level, it would imply a decline of roughly 11.6% from the all-time high reached in January, highlighting the potential magnitude of the current correction if downside momentum persists.Looking back to 2025, the move down from the February high to the April low took the price down -21.4%. For the trading week, the S&P index is down -1.86%.Likewise, the NASDAQ index has seen its technical tone shift more decisively to the downside. The index moved and closed back below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday, and since then, downside momentum has continued to build through both yesterday’s and today’s sessions.The decline has now pushed the price below a key swing area between 21,641 and 21,803, increasing the bearish bias. Currently trading near 21,640, down about -2.04% on the day, the break of that support zone suggests sellers are maintaining control.Looking ahead, the next downside target comes in between 20,905 and 21,033, which represents the next meaningful support region. A move below that zone would shift focus toward the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in near 20,491.86.A decline to that level would represent roughly a -14.6% drop from the all-time high, underscoring the scope of the current correction if momentum continues lower. For context, the prior trend move from the February 2025 high to the April 2025 low saw a much steeper decline of about -26.5%, highlighting that while the current move is significant, it has not yet reached the magnitude of previous corrections.For the trading week, the NASDAQ index is down -2.04%.War in Iran is about to enter its 4th week. Although Trump and the US insist the plan is ahead of schedule, there are still changes to the plan including taking over Kharg Island which suggests boots on the ground and an end to the war weeks - if not months away. Moreover, strategic targets could be under attack by Iran and any hits, could require years of rebuilding and threatens the supply/demand for oil globallyCrude oil is currently trading at $98.60, after a volatile week which saw the low price extend down to $91.45, and the high price reach $102.44. For the week the price is little changed. Recall last week, the high price reached all the way up to $119.48 before closing the week near $99.30 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report.The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region."No, I'm not putting troops anywhere," Trump said yesterday but quickly added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."I wonder why this was leaked. I tend to think it might be something to bring Iran to the negotiating table but it could also be from those who think sending troops to the Middle East is a grave mistake.Finally, it could all be part of the usual planning and options that all military officials are constantly doing. So far, the reports we have are that two units of Marines have been deployed, with about 2200 soldiers each. The first should arrive in the theatre from Japan on Sunday or early next week while the second is roughly three weeks away as it sails from California.However if you break those units down, most would be in support rose with around 200 commandos and perhaps 700-900 possible ground combatants with a few hundred more ground-capable troops.In contrast, there were a half-million soldiers involved in Desert Storm and an initial force of 150,000 soldiers in the 2003 Iraq invasion. Iran is 3.5x larger, much more mountainous and around 3.5x more populous. There's also no natural place from which to stage an invasion as the mountains protect the border with Iraq.In any case, the market doesn't like where this is all headed and brent is now up $4 to $112 from as low as $105.05 earlier. The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and the Nasdaq down 2%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.