Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Bulls Repair the 80K Zone, But 82.8K Remains the Key Breakout GateLast updated: May 9, 2026 Market bias: Mildly bullish repair, not confirmed bullish expansionBitcoin is trading with a constructive short-term bias after buyers defended the repaired value area near 80,000. The current BTC price forecast improves while price holds above 79,000-79,500, but a stronger bullish signal still requires acceptance above the 82,500-82,800 resistance zone.Key takeaways for crypto traders and investors at investingLive.com Bitcoin has shifted from prior downside damage into a repair phase. Buyers are increasingly defending the 80,000-81,300 accepted-value zone. The main upside gate remains 82,500-82,800. A daily close above 82,800 would strengthen the bullish case. A daily close below 79,000-79,500 would weaken the repair structure. U.S. crypto regulation headlines may become a short-term volatility driver as the Senate Banking Committee is expected to review the CLARITY Act on May 14, 2026. What is the current Bitcoin technical outlook?Bitcoin is no longer showing clean bearish control. The stronger read is that BTC is in a credible bullish repair phase, but not yet in a completed bullish takeover.The crypto market is showing renewed resilience as broader economic and geopolitical signals begin to stabilize. Sentiment is lifting following investingLive’s America’s Market News Wrap, which highlighted surprising upside in US jobs growth, alongside reports that the US and Iran could resume talks next week. While my last short-term bearish prediction successfully reached all profit targets, I recently cautioned Inga on social media to "don't bank on a prolonged Bitcoin decline." Historically, once the specific targets of the tradeCompass methodology are hit, the downward move is often exhausted, clearing the path for the next leg up.The important distinction is that buyers have repaired value near 80,000, while sellers have failed to push accepted value back into the prior lower range. However, the market has not yet confirmed acceptance above 82,500-82,800, which remains the key level for a more aggressive bullish continuation signal.In my experience, this type of structure often appears before a larger directional decision: buyers are improving the auction underneath price, but the market still needs proof that resistance is being accepted, not just tested.Bitcoin’s price sentiment score at investingLive.com so far this weekendBitcoin’s price sentiment score is now +3 on a -10 to +10 scale, signaling a mildly bullish repair phase: buyers are improving control near key support, but the move is not yet a confirmed bullish takeover until resistance is clearly accepted.Bitcoin Testing Structural Break: Regression Strength and Potential Trend AccelerationRegression Channel Mechanics: Unlike a standard parallel channel drawn between two peaks and two valleys, a linear regression channel uses a mathematical "best fit" line (the midline) to minimize the distance between all closing prices in the selected period. It represents the mean value of the trend; even if the outer lines aren't perfectly parallel in a visual sense, they signify standard deviations from that mean. This remains relevant because it objectively defines the current "fair value" path and identifies overbought or oversold extremes based on historical price distribution rather than subjective line-drawing.The Failed Bear Flag Thesis: While many traders view an ascending channel following a sharp drop as a "bear flag," the context here is shifting. A bear flag typically breaks downward to continue the previous crash; however, price has already reclaimed the red diagonal resistance—a multi-month trendline—and is now hugging the upper boundary of the regression channel. An upside breakout here invalidates the "flag" entirely, signaling that the bulls have successfully absorbed all selling pressure from the previous leg down.The Significance of the Red Resistance Flip: The crossing of the red downward-sloping line is a major structural shift. In technical analysis, once a significant resistance line is breached and price holds above it, that line often transitions into support. By staying within the regression channel and attacking the upper pane, Bitcoin is using that old resistance as a springboard, suggesting the path of least resistance has flipped from down to up.Momentum Over Confirmation: While "confirmation" (like a daily close well above the channel) is the gold standard, the bullish bias is found in the sequence of higher lows within the channel. Each time price touched the lower red pane of the regression, it was aggressively bought up. This persistent demand at higher price levels indicates "accumulation under cover," where buyers are becoming increasingly impatient, often leading to a violent move upward before traditional confirmation can even occur.Volume and Volatility Contraction: Notice how the price action has become "tighter" near the top of the channel. This tightening, or compression, often precedes an expansion. Since this compression is happening at the top of a range rather than the bottom, it suggests a "short squeeze" may be brewing, as those betting on a channel rejection are forced to cover their positions, further fueling an upside breakoutWhat are the key Bitcoin support and resistance levels?What this means: Accepted value refers to the price area where the market is spending time and building volume. When accepted value moves higher, it often signals that buyers are gaining control beneath the surface.Why is Bitcoin’s 80K area important?The 80,000 area has become the center of the current battle. Recent pullbacks have not created a clean return to the lower 76,000-78,000 zone. That matters because bearish pressure is becoming less efficient.Sellers have generated pullbacks, but they have not restored downside control. Buyers, meanwhile, have continued to defend higher value near 80,000 and have pushed price back toward the upper resistance zone.That is why the current Bitcoin forecast is cautiously constructive. The market is not showing a clean breakout yet, but it is also not behaving like a market where sellers are in full control.What would confirm a bullish Bitcoin breakout?The bullish case strengthens if BTC can close above 82,800 and then hold above the former resistance area on a retest.A stronger bullish confirmation would include:If those conditions develop, the Bitcoin outlook would likely shift from “repair” toward “bullish continuation,” with buyers showing stronger control of the auction.What would weaken the Bitcoin price forecast?The bullish repair weakens if BTC loses 80,000, and it becomes more vulnerable if price closes below 79,000-79,500 with renewed negative momentum.The key bearish scenario is not just a price dip. It would require sellers to push accepted value lower again. If BTC falls below 79,000-79,500 and volume builds beneath that zone, the market would be signaling that the recent repair failed.How could the CLARITY Act affect Bitcoin?Regulatory headlines may become more important next week. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the CLARITY Act on May 14, 2026, a bill designed to clarify whether crypto assets fall under securities or commodities regulation and to define the roles of U.S. financial regulators. That matters for Bitcoin because markets often react before the legal outcome is final. In my experience, previous major crypto regulation events have often produced an initial volatility spike, followed by a more durable move only after traders understand whether the rule change improves institutional access, limits activity, or leaves uncertainty unresolved.The balanced view is this:Reuters reported that the bill still faces obstacles, including Democratic opposition and debate around anti-money-laundering concerns, stablecoin rules, and political issues. That means traders should avoid assuming passage is guaranteed. Bitcoin forecast: bullish repair, but not full takeoverThe current Bitcoin price forecast is mildly bullish, but not aggressively bullish.Buyers are repairing the chart and defending the 80,000 zone better than sellers are controlling the downside. That supports a constructive bias while BTC remains above 79,000-79,500.However, the bullish case is not complete until Bitcoin proves acceptance above 82,500-82,800. Until then, the cleaner interpretation is:Bitcoin is building a credible bullish repair, but the market has not yet confirmed a full bullish breakout.For traders, the practical roadmap is straightforward. Above 82,800, the bullish case improves. Below 79,000-79,500, the repair weakens. Between those levels, Bitcoin remains in a high-stakes value battle near 80,000-81,300.Readers are welcome to join the free investingLive Telegram channel for possible market updates, trade ideas, and real-time discussion here: https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US April non-farm payrolls +115K vs +62K expectedCanada employment change -17.7K vs 15.0K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% expectedUS and Iran could resume talks next week -- reportECB's Nagel: ECB will do whatever necessary to him he energy price surgeIran: From now on actions of the US maritime blockade will be met with military responseFed's Goolsbee: inflation has not been great. Job market is pretty much stableECB's Legarde: Higher energy costs will push up input pricesUniversity of Michigan sentiment for May 48.2 versus 49.5 estimateMarkets:WTI crude oil down 7 cents to $94.76US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.36%Gold up $30 to $4716S&P 500 up 0.8%GBP leads, USD lagsThe tech optimism is at a fever pitch as the Nasdaq climbed for the sixth straight week, adding 30% in that time and another 5% this week. Chip names continued to soar as Micron gained 15% and Intel 14% among others. The enthusiasm for AI is grossly overshadowing any worries about oil prices or rate hikes.On oil prices, they finished the day flat after climbing earlier. A late WSJ report indicated progress on a 14-point one-page plan to lay out the parameters for a month of negotiations on nuclear, sanctions and other problems. The day started with US attacks on parts of Iran but Trump dismissed them as minor and that was enough for the rest of the market to forget it.In terms of rate hikes, a second consecutive strong jobs report highlights how Kevin Warsh will have a tough time making the case for rate cuts this year. The ongoing boom in stock markets also adds to US consumer spending firepower. The lone dovish parts of the report were slightly softer than expected wage growth and another tick lower in labor force participation, which is down more than 1 percentage point since 2024.The US dollar softened across the board but it was more about war optimism than the jobs report. The Canadian dollar gained on USD but struggled elsewhere as April jobs were poor and included a further rise in the unemployment rate. Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

On the day:S&P 500 +0.85%Nasdaq Comp +1.7%DJIA flatRussell 2000 +0.75%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%On the week:S&P 500 +2.3%Nasdaq Comp +4.5%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +1.7%Toronto TSX Comp +0.5%The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs today. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—adding 115,000 jobs in April versus the 55,000 expected—overshadowed geopolitical fears, keeping investors heavily invested in the ongoing tech boom. This was the sixth straight week of gains, the longest run since Oct 2024.AI infrastructure demand continues to fuel semiconductor stocks. Micron shares popped 10% today, while Qualcomm jumped 9%, logging its fourth consecutive day of gains. The broader semiconductor index soared as hyperscalers continue raising their capital expenditure guidance.On the downside, cloud security provider Cloudflare took a massive hit today, tumbling 22%. The sharp drop came after the company issued a much weaker-than-expected Q2 sales forecast and announced it would be cutting approximately one-fifth of its global workforce.Fluence Energy was one of the day’s biggest single-stock winners, surging nearly 40%. The energy storage company crushed its quarterly earnings report, on growing demand for grid-scale energy storage products.Intel shares surged 14% following a Q1 earnings beat driven by a 22% jump in Data Center and AI revenue. Sentiment was further boosted by a major new foundry contract for Elon Musk's Terafab Initiative and reports of preliminary manufacturing talks with Apple.Akamai shares rocketed 28% higher after announcing a historic seven-year, $1.8 billion cloud infrastructure contract with a leading frontier AI company, reportedly Anthropic. This massive deal overshadowed the company’s solid Q1 earnings, highlighting Akamai's growing role in powering enterprise AI workloads. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is out with the latest leak on US-Iran negotiations:Talks could resume as early as next weekIran remains against transferring nuclear materialIran and the US working with mediators to formulate a 14-point MOU that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the warThe US would 'wind back' its blockade during those 30 daysDetails remain unresolvedWe continue to wait for war news but the market seems to have moved on. The Nasdaq is up for the sixth straight week and higher by more than 5% this week. Today we have big gains across tech and the S&P 500 is also up 0.8%.Optimism is in the air and it's been an incredible bull run from the bottom at the end of March. One of the non-war catalysts was the Claude Mythos leaks and that was followed by incredible capex numbers from hyperscalers. All that has reaffirmed optimism around AI and how transformational it will be. It's turned into something of a mania as stocks are bid each day and chip-related names make incredible gains.The US dollar is softer today and Treasury yields are lower. That's despite a stronger non-farm payrolls print. The upside from that was likely tempered by a soft read on wages in the jobs report and war optimism.The caveat is that it's Friday and early in the war, we saw plenty of Friday night surprises. That angst isn't affecting stocks much at the open though, with the S&P 500 in striking distance from the highs of the day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

WTI crude oil finished modestly higher today despite the ongoing exchange of fire between Iran and the USA. The market is waiting for the next steps in negotiations and whether both sides are able to open the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate details of any lasting peace.What I will notice is that long-dated oil prices are rising and converging towards short-dated prices. December WTI was up $1.50 today to $79.85 and I think it's more indicative of the market's broader view of oil prices.It's obviously risen to $80 from $60 but for the broader market, that seems to be okay. Yes, it's a 33% gain year-over-year but $80 is a tolerable level, and we've been there before plenty of times. The market is saying that consumers can absorb it and history is on that side.Of course, that all assumes that Trump will get the Strait opened in relatively short order. Earlier this week we saw $84 and the only real difference today is some political jawboning and the ongoing leaks about peace. Those leaks are all coming from the US side with the Iranian said continuing to emphasize core demands that aren't being met.I'd guess the market is pricing in a full reopening within two weeks but that continues to roll as time goes forward. If at some point negotiations reach a true deadlock, then we could see a rapid repricing. At the moment, the market sees that as remote, despite the obvious problems with negotiations.The bottom line is that the market thinks that Trump wont' resume a true shooting war. We see that across assets and it's been a wonderful trade for the past six weeks. The obvious caveat in the short-term is that things tend to go wrong on the weekends in Iran. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking back below a key ceiling/floor zone between 0.7221 and 0.7227. That bearish break helped push the pair down toward the next swing area support between 0.7193 and 0.7200. In early Asian-Pacific trading, buyers leaned against that support zone for several hours, helping stabilize the price before the pair rotated back to the upside.During the European session, the AUDUSD reclaimed the former swing area between 0.7221 and 0.7227, and importantly, the price has been able to stay above that zone into North American trading. That move back above the old resistance area shifts the short-term bias back in favor of the buyers, with the pair now trading near 0.7240.The next upside targets are the highs from earlier in the week. Yesterday’s high reached 0.7263, while Wednesday’s high extended to 0.7277. Recall from yesterday’s post that the 0.7277 area represents a key resistance zone dating back to 2022, where prior swing highs came in between 0.7265 and 0.7283. Earlier this week, sellers leaned against that historical ceiling with risk defined and limited, helping stall the rally within that resistance cluster.For now, buyers are back more in control while the price remains above the 0.7221–0.7227 area. A break above the key 0.7283 resistance level would open the door for further upside momentum and increase the bullish bias going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECBs Nagel;Will do whatever is needed to contain energy price jumpsECB is highly alert to increasing inflation risks. ECB will do whatever necessary to curb energy price surge. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Soon after the better-than-expected US jobs report in the worse than expected Canadian jobs report, I posted the following brief commentary and chart:The key resistance zone overhead was defined by the 38.2% retracement level, the swing area between 1.37089 and 1.37149, and the 100-day moving average near 1.3720. The price pushed higher into that resistance cluster, reaching a session high of 1.3710 before rotating back to the downside. The current price has now returned to the same area where the earlier post was made, reflecting the market’s inability to sustain momentum above the key technical ceiling.On the downside, support now comes in near 1.3660. A move below that level would likely disappoint buyers and could lead to a deeper rotation lower, with traders then targeting the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages near 1.3631 over time.On a move back to the upside, buyers still need to break above the aforementioned resistance targets to regain more control from the sellers. Since the beginning of April, sellers have largely dictated the price action. Although this week’s move above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages was a modest positive development for buyers, the more important hurdles remain the 38.2% retracement level and the 100-day moving average. A sustained move above those levels would be needed to shift the technical bias more firmly back in favor of the buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

An Iranian national security member is on the wires saying: From now on the actions of the US for maritime blockade will be met with Iran's military response.America should put some escorts for its destroyers so that they can save their forces if they thinkAlthough the comments are reportedly from an Iranian national security member, the question of credibility is questionable. Such is the fog from a war.MORE from IRAN:The national security committee of Iran's parliament says no agreement is possible with WashingtonStocks remain higher with the NASDAQ up 1.32% and the S&P up 0.75% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing mostly lower:German DAX, -1.44%. France's CAC -1.09%UK's FTSE 100 -0.43%Spain's Ibex -0.95%Italy's FTSE MIB unchangedFor the trading week:German DAX, +0.06%France's CAC -0.03%UK's FTSE 100 -1.26%Spain's Ibex +0.61%Italy's FTSE MIB +2.16% As London/European traders headfor the exits, the US stock indices remain higher led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 1.32%. The S&P index is up 0.71% while the Dow Industrial Average is near unchanged. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The job market is pretty much stable.There is not a lot of evidence that job market is falling apart.Inflation has not been great and is going the wrong way.There is not a lot of evidence of the job market deterioration. Inflation rises not just energy, was elevated before war. We stop making progress on inflation last yearIn the last few months as I started to go back up rather than downFed has to keep an eye on inflation situation.Everything should always be on the table for Fed. There is an argument that these are one time inflation shocks. Trying to figure out if energy shock will lastNot a big fan of using words to jawbone policy decisions.Worries about markets trying to price in AI productivity gains before they arriveThe problem with calling inflation a series of “one-time shocks” is that the shocks keep coming — one after another. Prices jump higher, but they rarely come back down. If the increase is truly temporary and caused by some artificial disruption, then when the shock fades, where’s the negative shock that brings prices back to normal? It almost never comes.A dinner for two at an Italian restaurant — two glasses of wine and a shared dessert — $258. That’s the new baseline. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are on pace for record closing levels after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The NASDAQ index is up 1.26% on the day while the S&P index is up 0.80%. The Dow Industrial Average is up 0.20%. For the week, the NASDAQ index is on pace for a 4% gain for the week, while the S&P is up 2.25% currently. Some oversizing gains were Datadog and Micron. Intel added another 16.5% . For the year, the stock of the once beleaguered chip manufacturer is up 213%. AMD is up 20.37% this week and up 102% for the year.How have the Magnificent 7 performed in 2026:Alphabet Inc.: +27.95% Amazon.com: +17.99% NVIDIA: +15.61% Apple Inc.: +8.23% Tesla: -5.19% Meta Platforms: -7.33% Microsoft: -14.10%The major indices in the US have been led by the Russell 2000 (the Russell 2000 reached a new all-time high this week at 2888.61 but is below that level currently). iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +15.18% YTD Nasdaq Composite: +12.45% YTD S&P 500: +8.03% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.43% YTDThe gains this year come despite the War in Iran and the tariffs. Increased productivity is helping the charge to highs. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Technology sector climbs as healthcare stumblesToday’s stock market is witnessing a noteworthy divergence as tech giants lead a rally, while healthcare stocks slump. A closer look at the heatmap reveals dynamic shifts across various sectors, providing insightful takeaways for investors seeking to navigate these changes.? Tech sector resurgence: Leading the chargeThe technology sector stands out with notable gains driven by strong performances from key players. Apple (AAPL) surged by 2.25% and Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 1.69%. These gains reflect growing investor confidence in tech’s growth potential and resilience.In contrast, Microsoft (MSFT) dipped 1.34%, possibly reflecting a temporary bout of profit-taking after recent gains. Broadcom (AVGO) also posted solid gains of 2.10%.? Healthcare sector strugglesCountering tech’s positive momentum, the healthcare sector faces challenges. Eli Lilly (LLY) fell by 1.79% and Gilead Sciences (GILD) dropped 1.98%, indicating investor caution amid sector-specific pressures or profit-taking. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also faced minor declines, dipping 0.21%.✅ Consumer cyclical and defensive sectors show stabilityAmazon (AMZN) managed a steady climb, increasing by 0.38%, reinforcing positive sentiment in the consumer cyclical sector. Similarly, the consumer defensive sector showed resilience with Walmart (WMT) rising by 0.61% and PepsiCo (PEP) ticking up 0.54%.? Financial sector mixed signalsThe financial sector painted a mixed picture. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) saw a slight decrease of 0.24%, while Citigroup (C) gained 1.12%, suggesting varying investor expectations and responses to economic signals and interest rate outlooks.? Strategic recommendationsGiven today’s market dynamics, investors should consider bolstering their holdings in technology stocks, benefiting from the current momentum while staying vigilant for any shifts. Monitoring healthcare for signs of stabilization or recovery could present buying opportunities at discounted prices.For a balanced strategy in uncertain times, diversifying across defensive and cyclical sectors could provide added stability and growth potential. Staying attuned to real-time market updates and insights at InvestingLive.com will be essential for navigating these market movements effectively. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

ECBs Legarde is speaking and says: climbing energy costs will push up input prices.Price increases may then be passed to consumer.We should be well-placed to react, when neededCurrent rates: The ECB at their last meeting last week held rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance to assess the impact of the Iran/Middle East war on inflation and growthKey driver of uncertainty: The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks to economic growth, with a material near-term impact through higher energy prices. Market pricing for the next move: Markets are fully pricing in three ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially arriving as early as June — a notable shift driven by the energy price shock. Commentary has been more hawkishECB's own stance: The ECB is following a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to a particular rate path. Its decisions will be based on the inflation outlook, incoming data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Inflation outlook: In the ECB's March baseline projections, headline inflation is seen averaging 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028 — revised up compared to December, largely because energy prices will be higher due to the Middle East conflict. Growth: Staff expect economic growth to average 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028 — a downward revision reflecting the global effects of the war on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence. In short, the ECB is in a tricky spot: energy-driven inflation is pushing market expectations toward hikes, while growth risks pull the other way. The June meeting will be closely watched, especially with new staff projections expected. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 49.8 Sentiment index 48.2 versus 49.5 estimateCurrent conditions 47.8 versus 52.0 estimateexpectations index 48.5 versus 48.1 estimate1-year inflation expectations 4.5% versus 4.7% last month.5-year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.5% last monthThe numbers are at multi-decade lows and reflective of the economic issues caused by the Iran/US war.From Univ of Michigan Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022. While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war, along with all 2024 readings and the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USD moved briefly higher following the better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, but the broader market reaction has since turned more risk-positive than dollar-supportive. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115K versus expectations of 62K, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as expected. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year — a mixed outcome that still points to lingering wage inflation pressures, but not enough to significantly alter Fed expectations. Meanwhile, the average workweek ticked up to 34.3 hours from 34.2, adding another modestly constructive detail to the report.Overall, the data reinforced the view that the labor market remains resilient without forcing the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive policy stance. Market pricing appears to be leaning toward the idea that the Fed can remain patient, especially if geopolitical tensions ease and energy-driven inflation pressures begin to moderate. Stocks are trading higher following the release, while Treasury yields are modestly lower, with the 2-year yield down 2.6 basis points and the 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points.Looking at the major currency pairs:EURUSD:The EURUSD dipped to support near 1.1754 — the minimum downside target outlined earlier — before rebounding back toward yesterday’s high near 1.1778. The pair remains trapped within a relatively narrow range, with traders awaiting the next directional break. On the topside, a move above 1.1784 and then 1.17956 would open the door toward April highs between 1.1823 and 1.1836, followed by 1.1848. On the downside, a break below 1.1754 would shift focus toward the key moving average cluster near 1.1728 (100-hour MA), 1.1719 (200-hour MA), and 1.17075 (100-day MA).USDJPY:The USDJPY moved higher after the report and tested the 100-hour moving average at 156.87, but sellers leaned against that resistance level and forced the pair back lower. The price is now retesting the 50% midpoint of the recent trading range at 156.50. A break below that level would give sellers greater confidence and increase downside momentum potential. On the topside, a move back above the 100-hour moving average would target the 100-day moving average near 157.35.GBPUSD:The GBPUSD continues to hold above the key swing area between 1.3575 and 1.3602, keeping buyers in near-term control. The North American session low reached 1.35977 before rebounding higher. The next upside target comes against yesterday’s high at 1.36317. Above that level, traders will look toward Wednesday’s high near 1.3643, followed by last week’s high at 1.36569.USDCAD:The USDCAD is moving sharply higher as stronger U.S. jobs data combines with weaker Canadian employment numbers to support the pair. The price has broken above a swing level at 1.3666 and is now approaching the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 31 high at 1.3708. Additional resistance comes in between 1.37089 and 1.37149, while the 100-day moving average near 1.37203 remains another key technical hurdle that buyers would need to break to strengthen the bullish bias further.USDCHF:The USDCHF initially moved modestly higher after the report but has since reversed lower, trading near a new session low around 0.7771. That level also represents the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range rally from the January 28 low to the early-April high. Yesterday, the pair briefly broke below that support level before snapping back higher and retesting the 100-hour moving average during the Asian-Pacific session. However, sellers regained control and rotated the pair back to the downside. Sellers remain in control technically, but they need to maintain momentum below the 0.7771 level to reinforce the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Two reports just crossed on Iran:1) A Fox News reporter says the US military carried out airstrikes today, hitting several empty tankers trying to break the US blockade of Iran. “These were Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) .... massive, empty ships trying to make it back to Iran ... attempted to run the blockde...”2) An explosion was heared in Iran's Sirik, near the Straight of HormuzThe US is insisting that the strikes earlier aren't a resumption of Operation Epic Fury and don't break the ceasefire. We're also waiting for the latest Iran response to the latest US war proposal.From what's been reported, the sides still seem miles apart but the question is whether they can get close enough together to open up Hormuz and negotiate the rest of the issues. It's tough to make a call as Trump seems to be trying to will a peace deal into existence, partly in order to calm markets.Iran has repeatedly talked about the need for trust and I can't imagine they're feeling better about trust with more strikes. Hitting tankers with airstrikes is also not the kind of thing you do if you're expecting a peace deal in the coming days.WTI crude oil is up 39-cents to $95.20 today.Bloomberg reports that state-owned Chinese oil firms have resold some of their oil cargoes to European and Asian rivals. That's an odd move during a supply shortage. The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a trading premia collapse. It's unclear if Chinese firms are just trying to capitalize on higher oil prices or they've been told to unload excess inventories ahead of an expected peace. Further, they could be simply trying to keep the global economy strong and build bridges with other countries. Also just now, Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy ordered vessels to maintain a minimum 10-mile distance from US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to deliver a lesson to the "Yankees" using missiles and drones. The directive came after overnight skirmishes and reports of heavy gunfire in the waterway. Vessel traffic through the Strait has dropped sharply, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has designated the area as "high risk." Iran is expected to respond to the latest US proposal to end the war today but hasn't yet. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month 14.1KEmployment change -17.7K vs 15.0 estimateUnemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% estimateFull time employment -46.7K vs -1.1K last monthPart-time employment 29.0K vs 15.2K last monthParticipation rate 65.0% vs 64.9% last month.Details from Statistics Canada:Employment changed little across major age groups in April. The unemployment rate for youth aged 15–24 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 14.3%. The unemployment rate for core-aged men (25–54) increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%. Employment declined in: Quebec: -43,000 (-0.9%) Newfoundland and Labrador: -5,200 (-2.1%) Saskatchewan: -4,000 (-0.6%) New Brunswick: -2,700 (-0.7%) Employment increased in Ontario by +42,000 (+0.5%). Employment was little changed in the remaining provinces. Average hourly wages rose 4.5% year-over-year, increasing by $1.64 to $37.77 in April. Wage growth slowed slightly from 4.7% in March (not seasonally adjusted).The net overall decline in employment over the first four months of 2026 was concentrated in full-time work, which fell by -111,000 (-0.6%) over the period.April employment trends were largely stable across private sector, public sector, and self-employed workers.Private sector hiring continued to show modest growth, with employment up 91,000 (+0.7%) from a year earlier. Self-employment remained a weak spot in the labor market, falling by 55,000 (-2.0%) year-over-year. Public sector employment was essentially unchanged over the past 12 months.On the job in the unemployment rate:Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April, up 0.2 percentage points from the prior month. The increase came as more people entered the labor force and searched for work, with job seekers rising by 51,000 (+3.4%). Since January 2026, the unemployment rate has climbed 0.4 percentage points, signaling some softening in labor market conditions. Despite the recent rise, unemployment remains below the 7.1% peak reached in August and September 2025. On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged.Overall the Canada jobs report was weaker than expectations with the unemployment rate moving higher, jobs negative and all the declines was in the full time jobs (weakness). The USDCAD has moved higher (weaker CAD) give the stronger US jobs report and the weaker Canada report. The rprice is extending to a new high for the week (above 1.3665). The next target comes in at the 38.2% of the move down from the April high at 1.3708 and swing area at the same area between 1.37089 and 1.37149. The 100 day MA is at 1.37198. Overview of the Labour Survey:For background, the Labour Force Survey, published monthly by Statistics Canada, provides comprehensive data on employment, unemployment, and labour force participation across Canada. Released on the first or second Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report surveys approximately 56,000 households and tracks employment changes by industry, province, full-time versus part-time status, and demographic characteristics. The survey measures not only net job creation but also unemployment rates, wage growth, and labour force participation, offering insights into the health of Canada's economy. The data is closely monitored by the Bank of Canada when setting monetary policy and by economists assessing economic conditions. At the moment, there are no further cuts priced in for the Bank of Canada. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +178K (revised to +185K)Two-month net revision -16KFebruary was -133K (revised to -156K). January was +160K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.3%Unrounded unemployment 4.337% vs 4.256% priorParticipation rate 61.8% vs 61.9% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.2% vs 8.0% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.6% y/y vs +3.8% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expectedChange in private payrolls +123K vs +75expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls -2K vs +5K expectedGovernment payrolls -8K vs -5K in MarchThe U.S. labor market entered May on a strong footing. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115K, while February was revised down by 23K to -156K and March was revised up by 7K to +185K, leaving the two prior months a combined 16K lower than previously reported. The three-month average now sits at 48K.The composition again flatters the headline. Health care contributed 37K, transportation and warehousing 30K (couriers and messengers alone added 38K), and retail trade 22K, while federal government employment fell another 9K and is now down 348K, or 11.5%, from its October 2024 peak. Information shed 13K and financial activities lost 11K. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, but participation slipped again to 61.8% from 61.9%, and U-6 underemployment rose to 8.2% from 8.0% as part-time-for-economic-reasons swelled by 445K.The 6-month hiring average climbed to 55,000 jobs, the most since May 2025.Wages offered some comfort to the Fed. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% on the month and 3.6% from a year ago, both lower than expected. With breadth narrowing, federal job losses accelerating, and slack quietly building, April reads less like a soft patch than confirmation that the post-March bounce was the anomaly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US jobs report is expected to show a meaningful slowdown in hiring momentum, but not enough deterioration to immediately force the Fed into an easing cycle. Consensus forecasts call for headline nonfarm payrolls to rise by 62K, down sharply from 178K last month, while private payrolls are expected at 75K versus 186K previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% m/m after 0.2% last month, lifting the annual wage growth pace to 3.8% y/y from 3.5%.The expected combination paints a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve. Slower hiring suggests the labor market is cooling toward a more sustainable pace, but firm wage growth and a stable unemployment rate reinforce concerns that inflation pressures may remain sticky. That dynamic is especially important with Fed officials increasingly focused on inflation risks tied to energy prices and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.In Canada, the labor market is expected to remain relatively stable. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold at 6.7%, while employment change is expected at +15.0K compared to +14.1K last month. The data is unlikely to dramatically shift Bank of Canada expectations unless there is a meaningful surprise in either employment growth or unemployment.Among the major bank previews, most analysts expect a softer but still positive US jobs report:BofA expects payrolls to rise 80K with private payrolls at 90K, citing low layoffs, improving ADP data, and resilient claims data. They see risks tilted modestly to the upside and believe a 4.3% or lower unemployment rate would keep the Fed comfortably on hold. Goldman Sachs forecasts 75K payroll growth and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Goldman notes solid big-data hiring indicators and stable job openings but expects some drag from declining federal government payrolls. Morgan Stanley looks for 70K payroll growth and sees labor conditions remaining close to the pace needed to keep unemployment steady. They also point to lower jobless claims as evidence layoffs remain contained. There are also a couple of notable outlier forecasts:Barclays expects essentially flat employment growth, arguing that March strength may reverse due to payback from favorable seasonal adjustments, weather distortions, and fading healthcare strike effects. Even so, they still expect unemployment to remain near 4.3%. Citi is the most bearish major forecast, looking for a -15K payroll decline and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%. Citi argues that immigration changes and increased volatility could weigh on hiring and believes the Fed will ultimately focus more on broader labor market trends than any single monthly payroll report. For markets, the biggest focus will likely be whether the data confirms a “cooling but stable” labor market or hints at sharper deterioration. A stronger-than-expected report with firm wages could push yields and the USD higher as traders scale back Fed cut expectations. A weak payroll number — especially if unemployment rises to 4.4% — would likely reinforce rate-cut expectations later in the year and weigh on the dollar while supporting stocks initially.The US stocks are higher ahead of the release with the Dow industrial average showing a gain of 155.03 in premarket trading, the NASDAQ index is up 216 point while the S&P index is up 36.64 point.In the US debt market, yields are lower with the two-year down -1.1 basis points at 3.907%, the 10 year yield is down to basis points at 4.374% then still above the 4.25% and 4.0% levels are were seen more regularly earlier in the year.US dollar is lower. In the video above I will take a look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective.The major currency pairs are trading in technically important zones as traders continue to react to the latest moves in yields, risk sentiment, and key support/resistance levels.EURUSD: The EURUSD found support at session lows during the early Asian-Pacific session against a key cluster of moving averages. Buyers leaned against the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.1727 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.1719, helping to stabilize the pair after the low reached 1.1724. Just below those levels sits the 100-day moving average at 1.1707, adding another important layer of support. Those moving averages remain the key technical barometer for today and going forward. A move below them would tilt the bias back to the downside.On the topside, the pair rebounded to a high of 1.1773 and is currently trading near 1.1762. Despite the recovery, the price remains below yesterday’s high near 1.1778 and below the week’s high from Wednesday near 1.1796/1.1800. A break above those resistance levels would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the next upside targets at 1.1823–1.1836, followed by 1.1849. For now, buyers remain more in control while price holds above the key moving averages.USDJPY: The USDJPY rebounded during the Asian-Pacific session after bottoming earlier this week near the 155.00 level on Wednesday. The recovery pushed the pair back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 156.88, with the high reaching 156.99 before upside momentum stalled.The pair has since rotated back lower and is now trading back below the 100-hour moving average near 156.74. The next key support comes at the 50% midpoint of the rally from the February 12 low, which sits at 156.50. A move below that level would increase bearish momentum and target the 61.8% retracement at 155.50. Conversely, if buyers can regain control and push the price back above the 100-hour moving average, traders will look toward the 100-day moving average at 157.35, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 157.64.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD initially moved lower and briefly extended below its 200-hour moving average at 1.3555, reaching a session low of 1.3548. However, downside momentum faded during the Asian-Pacific session, allowing buyers to regain control and rotate the pair back to the upside.The rebound pushed the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3572 and through a key swing area between 1.3575 and 1.3602. That zone now serves as an important support region for buyers. On the topside, traders will continue to focus on resistance near the highs from this week and last week at 1.3631, 1.3643, and 1.3657. A sustained move above those levels would open the door for a stronger bullish extension toward the 1.3700 level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.