Silver, Gold, and other Metals completely faked out to the upside in the past week and are now suffering from their weak topsLong yields are exploding, and this adds further pressure to the non-yielding precious commoditiesIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD Precious metals surged higher last week, only to quickly reverse and drop due to weak price levels. It looked like metals were gaining control, with strong rallies reaching new two-month highs. But this momentum turned out to be a classic bull trap.The main reason for this big reversal is the fast rise of the Warsh Trade. After Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, markets quickly adjusted for a major tightening of monetary policy. This change led to a strong, lasting increase in the US Dollar and a sharp drop in bond prices.As a result, long-term treasury yields are rising quickly. This big jump in yields makes interest-bearing assets much more appealing to large investors. Because gold and silver do not pay interest, they are under heavy pressure Silver vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 19, 2026 Why hold a zero-yield metal when government paper is offering increasingly rising risk-free returns?Looking ahead, if the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape remains frustratingly cloudy and deadlocked, Gold may still see occasional safe-haven demand to cushion its downside. However, higher-beta, industrial-leaning alternatives like Copper and Silver may continue struggling under the sheer weight of a surging US Dollar and restrictive financial conditions. Crucial, trend-defining price action is rapidly approaching for the entire asset class. Daily Market Performance (14:22). May 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for the action ahead. Read More:The Warsh Trade and the US Dollar – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewIs the Stock Markets rally over? – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsAsia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold is rejecting its resistance and now struggling at the $4,500 support – With the descending RSI, the odds are towards a support break.Any break back above $4,600 on momentum would undo the bearish outlook.Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Testing, bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Next Support $3,880 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver completely erased its past week's progress and back right within its longer-run $70 to $84 range.Buyers are weakly stepping in at the $74 support, but with the descending RSI and weak candles, odds for a break lower are high.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Pivot $79 to $80Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 Key Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Micro support $74 - $76$70 - $71.50 April Support (Bearish below)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After their ceaseless rally, Semiconductors and Mag 7s are pulling back, imposing a stop in Stock Markets euphoriaFeeling the pressure of the spike in yields, the Warsh Trade could prove more dangerous for overextended Tech-heavy Stock MarketsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock markets have surged since the peak of the US-Iran conflict, but this strong trend is finally starting to slow down. After weeks of pushing the market higher, semiconductor giants and the Magnificent 7 are now pulling back, putting a sudden stop to the recent Wall Street excitement.Geopolitical tensions are still unresolved, and the market's optimism is fading. Even though yesterday saw a big relief rally after news broke that planned US military attacks on Iran were halted, investors could not keep up the positive momentum today. The lack of immediate conflict is no longer enough to hide changing economic conditions, and particularly when it comes to Fed expectations.Now, stocks are under pressure from a sharp rise in bond yields. The new Warsh Trade is especially risky for tech-heavy sectors that have grown too quickly. With Kevin Warsh confirmed to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman and likely to reduce the central bank's balance sheet, less liquidity is causing investors to rethink the current extreme pricing of high-growth assets – We will learn more on his views this Friday, date he will be sworn in.As a result, the strong upward trend that has kept the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising since early April is now breaking down – But for now, the correction remains quite contained.With the main drivers of the rally now leading the decline, traders are left wondering if the big peace rally has come to an end. Daily Market Performance (11:02). May 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Breaking News: The US President mentioned that he could potentially lean back into attacks on Iran! Make sure to track the latest narrative on the conflict throughout the week.Let's get ready for a potentially rocky action ahead by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Warsh Trade and the US Dollar – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewAsia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:05) – Source: TradingView – May 19, 2026 As you can see, the Stock Market split continues, with ongoing rebalancing and profit-taking from Semiconductors, Tech, and Magnificent 7s, leading the pullback in Nasdaq and S&P 500 while Healthcare remains the most bid sector, helping the DJIA to resist the selloff with more tenacity than its peers.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the latest trump comments, the action in Stocks showed a quick wick to the downside but bulls quickly re-entered to fade the move, but a selling wave its making its quick re-apparition.TACO or not, the threat remains a large one for Stock Markets, particularly traditional sectors, hence it will be important to keep track of the latest War narratives to see if these are only words or the prelude to something much worse.Still, the Dow Jones maintains its solid range between 49,000 and 49,900, largely resilient to the outflows seen in other indexes. Keep a close eye on the two range bounds for potential breakouts (with stop orders being a potentially interesting way to enter any buying/selling wave).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 200-MA (49,500)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range top)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now embarking into a more significant pullback, forming a bear channel in its latest action.Still, the pullback technically looks healthy for now, so Bulls will want to watch reactions at the 28,500 support.Any break of that support however could open the way for a larger correction (~26,300, past ATH) particularly if the mood sours until then.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,900 mini intraday resistance29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot29,218 2H 50-period MA29,500 - 29,600 current resistance (ATH)Support Levels28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the past week's fake-out above the key bull channel, the S&P 500 is breaking to the downside.Buyers are stepping in right at the past week's support and attempting a push, but the action still looks quite unsure around current levels.To get a better idea of where to look next, traders will want to see:A bullish impulse and 4H close above 7,380 for the bulls to retake the channelFor bears, either a rejection of the support (break below 7,320) or a break-retest of the channel (hence a rejection of 7,370)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,400 Channel Pivot (Short-term bearish below)7,430 - 7,450 Intraday Resistance7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceSupport Levels7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement (and Channel lows)Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar is back on a strong path higher since last week, already looking to erase some of its April softnessKevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman after a lengthy, unpredictable political process and Financial Markets are already experiencing significant changes. The Warsh Trade is slowly being priced in, reinforcing the idea of a more austere Monetary policy – Ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by conflict and rising oil prices make near-term rate cuts unlikely, signalling a major shift to what investors were awaiting throughout the past year.At the heart of this market shift is the idea of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet, suggesting a level of monetary restraint not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. Unlike typical quantitative tightening, this approach may aim to reduce the central bank's balance sheet far more aggressively. Since Warsh is President Trump's nominee, traders are still unsure if he will pursue such an independent and hawkish policy, but his past views suggest he might.As a result, investors are anxious to hear Warsh's first public comments, with his swearing-in set for this Friday. Even before he speaks, expectations of a reduction in liquidity are boosting the US Dollar, which is rising sharply against other currencies. The dollar's strength reflects how foreign exchange markets are adjusting to wider yield gaps and the prospect of a potentially tighter monetary policy. Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. May 19, 2026 We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to spot how the Warsh Trade has already impacted the FX Market and where to look next. Discover:Asia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyTrump cancels planned attacks on Iran, Stocks rally – Market reactionsThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar bulls are attacking the key 99.50 resistance area which served as a top to last week's initial explosion.Current bull candles are showing a strong push that will could easily retake the 99.415 top, with the formation of a tight bull channel formation, also following an upward trendline.Above 99.50, expect a fast paced continuation towards 100.00 – Below 99.00 however, the price action provides a more rangebound picture, hence immediate reactions and today's close will be essential to watch.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Resistance (past week highs 99.415)Initial War Spike 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels99.00 Intraday Pivot98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot now supportSupport 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportRange lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Since our last analysis of the Major FX Pair, the price action completely reversed and having rejected the 1.36 Major Resistance on a fakeout, sellers quickly took control of the action.This weekly open allowed a pullback right at the 1.34 - 1.3450 pivot zone, and the ongoing rejection points a high probable a retest of the 1.33 level.A break below would be plausible, with no clear support areas until 1.32 after (the War lows).Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 1.34 to 1.3450December Resistance 1.36 (range highs)pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.38Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.3280 - 1.331.32 War SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is subject to heavy pressure since last week, with sellers leading a 2,000 pip lower in an attempt to break the low-slope descending channel – Add to it a death-cross with the 50-period MA crossing below the 200 MA, and the action is decisively bearish.While the price action is strong, the pair is reaching some oversold levels, hence an immediate break could be less strong – Watch if the action closes below 1.16 to confirm a downside break.The next target for bears is the 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsPivot 1.1635 - 1.16551.17 to 1.1720 March ResistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highsSupport Levels1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rising global bond yields and growing expectations of future Federal Reserve rate hikes are increasingly threatening the AI-driven technology rally, pressuring growth-stock valuations across global equity markets.Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply after a drone strike targeted a UAE nuclear facility, intensifying concerns over prolonged Middle East instability, elevated oil prices, and persistent inflationary pressures.Despite broader macro weakness, Asian technology stocks showed resilience as Baidu posted strong AI-driven earnings growth and Samsung Electronics gained ahead of highly anticipated NVIDIA earnings.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s medium-term uptrend damaged, potential near-term weakness is likely to persist below 29,400 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines UAE nuclear plant targeted in severe escalation: Geopolitical tensions spiked as a drone strike caused a fire at a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three hostile drones. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran must act "fast" before he backed down on fresh military strikes following appeals from Gulf allies.Fed rate hike talks build: Wall Street is actively positioning for a hawkish pivot. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a high probability of a 25 bps rate hike by late 2026 or January 2027, driven by persistent inflation linked to the Middle East energy shock.Global bond rout deepens: Long-term government bond yields are breaking out to major inflection levels globally. The buckling of global bonds is being driven by entrenched inflation fears as the Middle East conflict drags on.Baidu and Samsung defy broader market gloom: Asian tech showed resilience, with Baidu topping Q1 estimates with a 49% surge in core AI-driven revenue, while Samsung shares (+3.9% on Monday, 18 May) jumped as investors look ahead to Nvidia's blockbuster earnings release.China retail sales growth weakens: China's retail sales have expanded at their slowest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, signaling severe domestic demand sluggishness that is capping broader regional equity gains.Key macro themes US-Iran conflict extends as midterms loom: There are currently few signs that a resolution to the Iran war is coming soon. The clock is ticking not just for Iran, but also for President Trump, as financial markets react to the ongoing oil shock while the U.S. midterm elections approach.The shift to active tightening: With headline April inflation running hot, the narrative has shifted away from a simple "higher for longer" pause. Stagflation risks are forcing central banks and markets to consider renewed rate hikes to kill structural energy-driven inflation.Nvidia earnings as the ultimate market litmus test: Markets are now hyper-focused on Nvidia's upcoming earnings this Wednesday, which carries astronomical expectations and raises systemic risks for a broader tech selloff if the results or guidance disappoint.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 traded lower for the second consecutive session, weighed down by elevated government bond yields and prolonged anxiety over the Iran war. Despite the broader market pressure, Asian tech showed resilience as Samsung shares jumped and Baidu topped Q1 estimates. In today’s Asia opening session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures extended losses to around 0.2%.Fixed Income: A global bond rout is deepening, leading to an impending yield major breakout that is actively pressuring the stock market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield zoomed past 4.50%, while Japan's 10-year JGB yield hit a record high of 2.8%.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains structurally dominant as rate hike expectations build, eroding alternative G10 gains and pressuring emerging market currencies.Commodities: Oil prices jumped to a two-week high following the unexpected drone attack on the UAE nuclear power plant before slipping down in the closing hour of Monday’s US session to trade almost unchanged after Trump backed down on military strikes against Iran. Conversely, spot gold slipped to a 1.5-month low, falling 1.1% to around $4,480/oz before it staged a minor bounce to end the US session with 0.6% at $4,566/oz, below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages Asia Pacific impact Tech resilience vs. macro gloom: While Baidu's strong earnings and Samsung's pre-Nvidia bounce may provide a tailwind for regional tech, broader indices like the Hang Seng and Nikkei are struggling under the weight of higher U.S. yields and China's sluggish retail sales. Nikkei 225 is trading almost unchanged in today’s Asian opening session, while KOSPI sees profit-taking activities (-2.6% at this time of writing).Currency strains & import bans: The widening yield premium with the U.S. and the structural oil shock continue to deplete regional FX valuations. To protect the capital account, the Indian government has initiated emergency curbs on silver imports.Samsung labor talks: High-stakes negotiations between Samsung Electronics management and its labor union continue, with global memory supply chains hanging in the balance.Top 3 economic data/events to watch today Japan Q1 GDP Preliminary Release - 7.50 am SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, Nikkei 225RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200CA Core Inflation Rate (Apr) - 8.30 am SGT (consensus: 2.6% y/y, Mar: 2.5% y/y) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crosses.Chart of the day - Nasdaq 100’s medium-term uptrend damaged Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 19 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The medium-term uptrend of the high-flying US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has been damaged as price actions broke below the former ascending channel support from the 31 March 2025 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator continues to flash out bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level,Watch the 29,400 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential side towards 28,660 near-term support. A break below it exposes the next intermediate support at 28,460/280 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 1).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 29,400 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to re-test the current intraday all-time high of 29,704 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US just rejected the latest Iranian proposal but Stock Markets don't seem to care much, down small despite the large rise in OilUS Markets are still lower compared to last week due to the repricing of the Warsh tradeExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are down just a little from where they closed on Friday, even after the latest geopolitical news.A senior US official told Axios that the United States has turned down Iran's latest diplomatic proposal. The White House says the offer does not include real concessions on Tehran's nuclear program and calls it just "token improvements." Because of this, tensions in the Middle East remain high, and WTI Crude oil prices have jumped amid continued concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. May 18, 2026 However, bad news from the Middle East is not causing as much panic in the stock market as it used to. In the past, higher oil prices would drag down risk assets, but stocks are mostly shrugging off this latest setback. The main reason US markets are a bit lower than last week is the ongoing adjustment to the "Kevin Warsh trade." Daily Market Performance (11:41). May 18, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz After Kevin Warsh was named the next Federal Reserve Chairman, markets started thinking about what a big cut in the Fed's balance sheet could mean over time. Market Participants are slowly getting ready for the central bank to sell assets, which unsettled the bond market and caused sharp drops in stocks and crypto last Friday. This anticipated regime change in liquidity has made people worry about a return to the tough times before the global financial crisis.At the start of the new trading week, the negative effects from the Kevin Warsh trade are easing. The selloffs are still relatively small in today's Stock Market action.The early panic has faded as traders wait to hear more from the new Fed Chair about possible tighter policy. If Warsh confirms worries about a liquidity drain, stocks could drop more. For now, most people are waiting and staying cautious.Let's get ready for this week by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Asia open: Trump-Xi summit disappoints, inflation fears fuel bond yield surgeThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookBritish bonds under pressure. Yields at their highest in yearsCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:44) – Source: TradingView – May 18, 2026 The picture almost completely inverted compared to what we have seen in the past 2/3 weeks, with Semiconductors actually tumbling to start the week and allowing more traditional Tech and defensive sectors to rebound – Finance and Energy minerals are the leaders of today's action.Producer Manufacturing however is also taking a hit, which seems to be a profit-taking trade.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is the only index remaining close to unchanged on the session, supported by the broader rise in defensive equities – but the price action isn't much more bullish.Sellers appeared at the 2H 50-period MA and are rejecting the index right back into the past week's range between 49,000 and 49,900.It seems that consolidation is the path of least resistance in the waiting for more fundamental news for the DJIA.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 50-MA (49,726)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range top)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has officially stalled is insane rally for the first time since mid-April, topping right below the huge 30,000 milestone.Despite a few attempts to trade above it, sellers brought back the Index below 29,000, but some dip-buyers seem to be holding the 28,900 level.Any break of that mini-intraday support could bring heavy selling flows back towards 28,000 first, with very minor supports below – Hence it could be difficult to see consequential dip-buying until a retest of the prior ATH record (~26,300), but this still remains quite far.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot29,265 2H 50-period MA29,500 - 29,600 current resistance (ATH)Support Levels28,900 mini intraday support28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has faked out of its longer-run upward channel, now selling back within the key technical pattern.After retesting the 7,430 resistance (and 2H 50-period MA), the action is now getting somewhat bearish on the short-term.Look at what happens when and if sellers bring back the index back towards 7,340 (the Channel Lows).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,400 Channel Pivot (Short-term bearish below)7,430 - 7,450 Intraday Resistance7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceSupport Levels7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement (and Channel lows)Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Trump-Xi Beijing summit delivered limited concrete progress, disappointing markets that had hoped for broader trade and geopolitical breakthroughs, while renewed warnings over Taiwan tensions kept regional risk sentiment fragile.Rising inflation pressures and surging global bond yields reinforced fears that the Federal Reserve may eventually shift toward rate hikes rather than cuts, with the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.59%.The AI-driven equity rally is increasingly viewed as overconcentrated, with growing concerns that elevated valuations in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks could face pressure from rising yields and sector rotation ahead of NVIDIA earnings.Chart of the day: WTI crude’s minor bullish structure remains intact after a strong rebound from 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with key short-term support at $103.40/bbl.Top macro headlines Trump-Xi Beijing summit concludes with limited progress: The highly anticipated two-day meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded in Beijing with few concrete agreements. While pledging a three-year "strategic stability" truce, Xi issued his bluntest warning yet on Taiwan, stating it could lead to "clashes" and create a "highly dangerous situation". On trade, China agreed to purchase only 200 Boeing jets, well short of the 500 investors expected.Gundlach and Wall Street warn of Fed rate hikes: DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that stubborn inflation and a commodity boom could force the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate hikes rather than cuts. This aligns with a growing chorus on Wall Street, which is pricing out 2026 rate cuts entirely, shifting expectations toward tightening as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge runs at more than double its target rate.Global bond yields surge, threatening stock rally: Global bond yields marched higher over the weekend, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.59%. A steep rise in yields may start to pose a direct valuation threat to the global equity market rally, with the magnificent rallies seen in semiconductor, AI infrastructure-related equities since the end of March 2026.Goldman warns AI-fueled market rally overconcentrated: Goldman Sachs cautioned that the AI-driven stock surge powering the S&P 500 to repeated records is morphing into "one big trade," exposing investors to heightened systemic risk. Concurrently, J.P. Morgan data revealed that AI-related industries now command more than half of the total S&P 500 weight.Bill Ackman builds hefty stake in Microsoft: Pershing Square revealed a contrarian core position in Microsoft. Famed investor Bill Ackman is betting against the popular market trade of selling software firms to buy chipmakers, arguing that Microsoft's enterprise software suite remains deeply embedded and insulated from AI rivals.Key macro themes Vanishing rate cuts and tightening Fears: Persistent inflation, driven heavily by energy and commodity shocks, has completely upended the global monetary outlook. Investors are rapidly moving from a "higher-for-longer" stance to actively positioning for potential rate hikes under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.Geopolitical friction and supply-chain vulnerabilities: The U.S. war in Iran and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to impose structural inflation constraints on the global economy. While the physical ceasefire holds, the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough keeps WTI and Brent crude elevated near $105-110/bbl.Extreme equity concentration in the AI supercycle: With the AI ecosystem now exceeding 50% of the S&P 500's weight, the market's technical structure is highly sensitive to thematic rotation or an options market correction.Global market impact Equities: Wall Street pulled back ahead of the weekend, with the S&P 500 closing lower at 7,409, putting a pause to its prior 6-week of weekly gains with a loss of -0.4% for the week of 11 May. Tech shares led the decline as investors re-evaluated software vs. hardware valuations.Fixed Income: Bond markets experienced heavy selling. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.59%. Long-term UK bond yields climbed to their highest levels since 1998 on fiscal deficit concerns due to political instability within the ruling Labour Party's leadership.FX: The U.S. Dollar retained broad structural strength as rate cut expectations evaporated. The Japanese Yen and British Pound remained defensive against greenback dominance as both ended with a weekly loss of 2.3% and 1.3%.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil surged 3% on last Friday to settle at $109.48-105.86/bbl due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz [cite: 8]. Spot Gold corrected lower by 2.4% to settle at $4,540/oz under pressure from higher global bond yields. Asia Pacific impact Stock markets & supply chains: High energy import costs continue to pressure regional growth, with India's stock market down around 10% YTD. In South Korea, Samsung Electronics and its labor union are scheduled to resume high-stakes pay negotiations today to avert a threatened 18-day strike that could disrupt global memory chip supplies. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures extended their losses to 0.6% to 0.7% in today's Asia opening session at this time of writing.Currencies: The Indian Rupee was flagged as Asia's worst-performing currency due to the crude oil price shock. The offshore Yuan weakened in line with other regional currencies after China's summit talks concluded. Xi's blunt language regarding Taiwan leaves the regional complex highly sensitive.Regional policy actions: To combat currency depreciation and macro strains, the Indian government has initiated emergency solutions, including tightening controls on gold imports and cracking down on domestic fuel consumption.Top 3 economic data/events to watch today CN House Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production (Apr) - 10:00 am SGT Impact: USD/CNH, Hang Seng Index, ChinaA50, AUD/USDTrailing impact of U.S. 10-Year bond yield above 4.59% Impact: US Treasuries, growth stocks, USD, Gold.Market positioning ahead of Nvidia Q1 earnings release on Wednesday, 20 May Impact: US semiconductor stocks, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500Chart of the day - WTI crude bullish revival from 20-day and 50-day MAs Fig. 1: West Texas oil CFD minor trend as of 18 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). After a retest on its 20-day and 50-day moving averages on Monday, 11 May 2026, the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) surged by 9% to hit a two-week high.The current minor uptrend from its 6 May 2026 low remains intact within a medium-term sideways range configuration since the 9 March 2026 high of $119.54 (see Fig. 1).Watch the $103.40 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above $108.20 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at $112.84 before the medium-term range resistance of $116.56/119.54.However, a break and an hourly close below $103.40 invalidates the bullish tone for another round of choppy minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at $100.25 and $97.40 (also the area of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Markets are subject to significant repricing after the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chairman and this theme should continue to price throughout the coming weekA few inflation releases (Canada, UK) will continue to provide clarity into the Market situationGet ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Earnings break records, pulling Markets higher Stock markets reached spectacular new highs just yesterday, heavily profiting from relentless artificial intelligence trends and a massive wave of record corporate earnings. The S&P 500 aggressively breached the monumental 7,500 milestone, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average temporarily reclaimed the historic 50,000 mark as global risk appetite peaks.Adding to this initial bullish momentum, the highly anticipated summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a highly constructive geopolitical tone. The two leaders establish aligning views regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict and the general World order with the two superpowers needing to collaborate.Investors are now looking ahead to the next encounter between the two leaders, with an official invitation extended for President Xi to visit Trump in the United States in mid-September.However, while these diplomatic developments generate better hopes for a sustainable peace process, financial markets are already rapidly turning the page on this theme.Despite the midweek ecstasy, a much more dominant macroeconomic theme is now aggressively gripping the markets and causing widespread bloodshed ahead of the weekend. Following the official Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, risk assets are subject to a brutal, significant repricing. Ruthless bearish flows wipe out recent equity, metals and Crypto gains as the US Dollar explodes higher at the direct expense of virtually all other asset classes.Markets are hyper-focusing on the severe, long-term implications of a Warsh-led Federal Reserve. Institutional capital is actively preparing for a massive, systematic emptying of the central bank's balance sheet, which remains one of the new Chair's dearest ambitions. You can see this in the shocking action in bond markets which swears to trigger cascading effects into the broader Market regime Broad US Bond Market since beginning 2026 – May 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView This aggressive trajectory possesses the terrifying potential to severely impact the foundational liquidity system that has supported global markets since the post-Great Financial Crisis era. As this historic recalibration drains speculative excess from the financial system, this structural liquidity shift is the exact theme that continues to heavily dictate price action heading into next week and coming months.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – May 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView What could have been a dream-like week for major assets quickly turned out to be a dramatic rewinding which took out more than what it gave.When Markets fear a drain in liquidity, it quickly brings back gigantic fears of a much more ruthless pre-GFC regime, where demand gets pushed and pulled by cyclical factors rather than the continuous support that it had seen in the past 17 years.Stock Markets, Cryptos and Metals, which had started the week on a rocketship, quickly turned back the other direction with most assets now down on the week.The only exceptions remain WTI Crude and the US Dollar. Discover:The new Fed Chair's balance sheet erasure and Market bloodshedBritish bonds under pressure. Yields at their highest in yearsCrude Oil eases its overnight rally but what's next? – WTI Technical analysisThe Week Ahead – G7 Meeting, UK and Canada CPI along with high-tier PMI reports One of the key geopolitical event is the G7 Meeting which aims to provide more collaboration along members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States).And in terms of broader Markets, players will want to focus on the Kevin Warsh trade, bullish for the US Dollar and bearish on everything else.Asia Pacific Markets – Australian Employment and broad economic indicators Next week's APAC calendar brings heavy volatility across major economies. China kicks off with high-impact Industrial Production forecasted at 5.9% and Retail Sales at 2.0%, before the PBoC holds interest rates at 3.0%. Japan faces critical Q1 GDP data expecting a 1.7% annualized print, ahead of Thursday's National CPI. Australia navigates the RBA Meeting Minutes and Wednesday's pivotal employment report, projecting a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Finally, New Zealand traders prepare for Thursday's Q1 Retail Sales data.Europe and UK Markets – UK Employment and Inflation, along with flurries of economic data Get ready for a ton of action for the Old Continent.In the UK, traders brace for Tuesday’s 4.9% unemployment rate and Wednesday’s critical CPI report, with headline inflation forecasted at 3.3%. Thursday’s UK Services PMI is expected at 52.7. In Europe, focus shifts to PMIs, projecting contraction in Germany at 48.4 and the broader Eurozone at 48.8. Friday caps off the week with German Q1 GDP growth anticipated at 0.3%.And don't forget a high number of ECB and BoE speakers throughout the week.North American Markets – Canadian CPI, FOMC Minutes and US PMIs Next week, North American markets face pivotal data as traders seek fresh direction. In Canada, Tuesday's crucial CPI report takes center stage, with previous core YoY inflation sitting at 2.5%, followed by Friday's retail sales forecasted at 0.6%. Meanwhile, US markets will hyper-focus on Wednesday's critical FOMC Minutes for monetary policy clues. The US narrative then shifts to economic health on Thursday, highlighted by preliminary Manufacturing PMIs (previously 54.5) and Services PMIs (previously 51.0).Don't forget to keep a close eye on US Markets and Bonds, particularly with the end of week turmoil!Next Week's High Tier Economic Events Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran developments, along with the Warsh Trade!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK bond yields surged to multi-year highs as investors reacted nervously to the possibility of Andy Burnham eventually challenging Keir Starmer’s leadership.Markets fear that a potential Burnham-led government could pursue looser fiscal policy, higher public spending and greater borrowing.The sell-off reflects lingering sensitivity after the 2022 Liz Truss crisis, as well as global pressures from inflation, energy prices and geopolitical tensions. The British debt market came under strong pressure after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham gained the ability to run for a parliamentary seat. For investors, this is a signal that he could, in the future, open a path toward competing for the leadership of the Labour Party and, consequently, challenging Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The mere prospect of such a scenario was enough to trigger a nervous reaction in the bond market.The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose by as much as 20 basis points to 5.86%, reaching its highest level since 1998. The yield on 10-year bonds, meanwhile, climbed to 5.18%, a level not seen since 2008. Falling bond prices were accompanied by a weakening of the pound against the dollar, with the British currency heading for its worst week since 2024. Yield on 30-year British bonds, source: TradingView Investors fear higher spendingThe source of concern is the belief that a potential Burnham government could pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy than Starmer’s current cabinet. Markets are primarily worried about higher public spending, a larger budget deficit, and increased debt issuance. This is particularly important at a time when the UK’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at its highest level since the 1960s.Investor unease has been reinforced by Burnham’s earlier comments. The Manchester mayor suggested that the UK is, in a sense, “in hock” to the bond markets, and also indicated that defence spending could be excluded from the existing fiscal rules. For the debt market, such statements sound like a signal of greater freedom to increase public borrowing.The spectre of a return to the 2022 crisisThe investor reaction is so sharp also because the British market still remembers the 2022 crisis. At that time, unfunded spending proposals from Liz Truss’s government led to a severe sell-off in bonds and major financial turbulence. Since then, every suggestion of a departure from cautious budget policy has been punished especially quickly by the market in the UK.Global factors are also adding to the situation. High energy prices, concerns about persistent inflation, and tensions linked to the war in the Middle East are increasing pressure on government bonds. As a result, investors have begun to change their expectations for the Bank of England. Instead of assuming interest-rate cuts, the market has started pricing in the possibility of rate hikes. Weekly timeframe of GBPUSD, source: TradingView Politics is becoming a key risk for debtThe sell-off in British bonds shows that investors are paying increasingly close attention not only to macroeconomic data, but also to political signals. The rise in yields stems both from external factors, such as energy prices and inflation, and from growing uncertainty around the future direction of UK fiscal policy.The most important question for the market today is whether a possible change in Labour Party leadership would mean a departure from the cautious approach to public finances represented by Starmer and Rachel Reeves. Until investors receive a clear answer, British bonds and pound sterling may remain vulnerable to sharp swings. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The morning session brings ruthless flows across all financial markets as participants actively price in absolute bloodshed ahead of the weekend.Investors are facing a brutal reality check as the much-discussed Warsh trade moves into a significantly heavier and more destructive phase.At the core of this widespread Market selloff is the aggressive repricing for the effective emptying of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.Shrinking the portfolio of assets remains one of the new Fed Chair dearest ambitions, and the market is finally digesting the severe liquidity implications of this impending policy shift.While the central bank did engage in quantitative tightening cycles in recent years, the sheer scale and aggressive trajectory currently repricing under this new mandate point to a structural liquidity drain unmatched in its intensity since the original massive expansion programs began during the 2008 financial crisis.And the only asset profiting from this is the US Dollar – The Dollar Index is bouncing to levels not seen since late April. Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView The recent sharp rise in the US Dollar reflects the structural changes underway. As the central bank plans to gradually withdraw capital from the financial system, the dollar is gaining strongly while most other asset classes are losing value.Explore our latest Dollar Index Analysis to learn more.Stocks are falling across the board. The recent gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are reversing as tighter financial conditions put pressure on growth and tech stocks. The Dow Jones is also losing ground, with the broader stock market in a state of ceaseless anxiety since this morning.The declines are not limited to stocks. Precious metals, which recently saw strong gains, are now falling as the stronger dollar removes much of their support. Cryptocurrencies are also dropping as speculation fades from the market. Bond yields are rising quickly as the market prepares to handle more debt without central bank support.Traders are seeing a major shift in the markets. Risk assets are having trouble maintaining their high valuations as the central bank signals tighter monetary policy, making the market environment much more challenging.Let's look around asset classes to get ready for what could be a heavy period in Markets. Discover:Crude Oil eases its overnight rally but what's next? – WTI Technical analysisAsia open: Oil surges past $106, USD rose as Fed signals steady ratesTrump-Xi summit 2026: Key expectations and what markets are watchingA Bloody Stock Market Picture Stock Market Futures – Courtesy of Finviz. May 15, 2026 As explored in our past session's Stock Market analysis, Nasdaq was showing signs of weakness which translated into today's broader correction.This could be the beginning of something much more significant, especially when looking at bond Markets seeing volatility unseen since the 2022 hike cycle.Metals lose their ground Metals weekly performance – May 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals are getting swept downward, erasing most of their past week's rallies in the single session.Bonds are getting heavily rejected, reaching 12-month lows 10Y US Treasury Bond Chart – May 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView With bonds breaking lower like this, there will be dire consequences for the broader Market.Is this the beginning of something much more consequential? It might just be.Reactions to current levels in Bond Markets will be very important to watch – Look for much rougher Market conditions in the next week if this continues. Broad US Bond Market – May 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks explode to new highs in today's sessionNasdaq and S&P 500 print fresh new records, while the Dow Jones gets back above 50,000Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are reaching new all-time highs today, fueled by strong global risk appetite. The S&P 500 has moved past the 7,500 level, while the Nasdaq is also setting new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed back above 50,000.The Chairman Warsh trade is leading market activity. Investors see his confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair as positive for stocks. Large investors are moving money into growth and risk-oriented assets, while other asset classes are seeing less demand. Precious metals, which recently benefited from safe-haven buying, are now giving back some of their gains as market fears ease. This rise in stocks is global, with international indexes also rising, signalling broad risk appetite.The ongoing diplomatic summit between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping is also supporting the rally. Investors are encouraged by the positive tone from Beijing. This important meeting is improving investor sentiment and offers hope that the global economy will move away from the deglobalization trends seen in 2025.While markets are rallying, the Federal Reserve is also seeing major changes. Kevin Warsh has joined the Fed board as its new leader, and Miran is stepping down. Since there has been no official statement about Jerome Powell leaving, Wall Street assumes he will stay on the Board of Governors for now. Daily Market Performance (15:18). May 14, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz To get ready for a potentially volatile weekend, dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Trump-Xi summit 2026: Key expectations and what markets are watchingKevin Warsh gets confirmed for Fed Chairman – Reactions for Dow Jones, Nasdaq & S&P 500Inflation is buoyant and Trump lands in China – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (15:22) – Source: TradingView – May 14, 2026 Nvidia continues to lead the push in Semiconductors, with the sector pulling the rest of the Market higher.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones broke its 49,500 to 50,000 range to the upside, looking to close above the key level for the first time since February 11.Expect to see a continued push towards the end of the week, with the prior all-time highs being the next target for the bulls (~50,500).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels50,200 morning highsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now forming what seems to be the basis of a short-term top, with the 2H RSI now forming a bearish divergence, turning lower despite the daily record highs – Bears will want to see a push below 29,400 with confirmation below the 2H 50-period MA (29,250).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,500 - 29,600 current resistanceDaily highs 29,620Support Levels2H 50-period MA (29,250) – (ST bearish below)28,500 short-term pivot28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView As explored in our past day analysis of the Index, the S&P 500 showed high potential for a channel breakout and did so in this morning, reaching a 7,526 new record!Despite the overbought momentum, the Index still looks strong enough to pursue its run higher – Nevertheless, keep an eye on if the Nasdaq ends up correcting as it may drag down sentiment with it.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceNext Stop 7,600Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the Trump-Xi meeting throughout the end of the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US inflation pressures intensified after April PPI surged 6.0% y/y, reinforcing the “higher for longer” Federal Reserve narrative and fuelling expectations that any future Fed move could shift toward rate hikes rather than cuts.Donald Trump and Xi Jinping began high-stakes talks in Beijing, with AI competition, semiconductor restrictions, and Middle East geopolitical tensions dominating market focus.Despite rising bond yields and inflation shocks, AI-driven equity momentum remained resilient as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 climbed to fresh record highs, while energy markets stayed elevated above $100/bbl due to worsening Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.Chart of the day: AUD/USD bullish breakout from minor range configuration, 0.7210 key short-term support with next intermediate resistances at 0.7265, 0.7300, and 0.7340.Top macro headlines US producer prices surge: April PPI jumped 1.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year, marking the biggest gain in four years. The hotter-than-expected print confirms inflation is accelerating amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.Trump arrives in Beijing for high-stakes summit: President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined the US delegation, highlighting the focus on the global AI race and the proposed US "MATCH Act" targeting Chinese chipmakers.EIA drastically revises Oil supply hit: The US Energy Information Administration revised its forecasts, projecting a much longer and more severe disruption to global oil supplies as Iran moves to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz.Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed official: The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor, setting him up as the likely successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Alibaba posted an operating loss on AI Spend: Alibaba Group ADRs slipped 3% after posting its first operating loss since the pandemic, underscoring the massive capital expenditures required to compete in the AI space. Interestingly, its ADR recovered as the US session progressed and ended with a gain of 8% to close at a near 5-month high.Key macro themes Inflation resurgence cements "Higher for Longer": Following the 3.8% CPI print, the massive 6.0% y/y headline PPI surge has completely wiped out remaining hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026, and reflected an increase in rate hike bets coming in the first half of 2027, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool.The cost of the AI arms race: Alibaba's earnings reflect a growing reality: the AI supercycle requires staggering, profitability-draining capital expenditures. Markets will increasingly scrutinize tech giants to balance AI spending with near-term margins.Structural geopolitical premiums: The oil market is shifting from pricing a "temporary disruption" to a "persistent geopolitical premium" as the Middle East conflict restricts global supply chain norms.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: US stock markets remained buoyant despite a red-hot PPI print. Supported by tech stocks, the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1%) rallied to another record high.Fixed Income: The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to an intraday high of 4.5% on Wednesday, 13 May, hitting a 10-month high as bond markets fully absorb the dual CPI and PPI inflation shocks.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains to 98.45, marking a third consecutive session of strength as investors increased bets on a prolonged restrictive Fed policy.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude remain elevated over $100/bbl following the EIA's grim supply revisions. Spot Gold is holding near $4,645/oz, supported by haven demand ahead of the Beijing summit.Asia Pacific Impact Stock markets: Chinese and Hong Kong equities will be in focus, following Alibaba's earnings miss, China's vocal opposition to the US MATCH Act, and the Trump-Xi summit gets underway. Tech heavyweights like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi will be closely watched. In today’s early Asia season, the China and Hong Kong stock markets opened with an upbeat tone; CSI 300 (+0.1%), China A50 (+0.1%), and Hang Seng Index (+1.1%) at this time of writing.Currencies: The yuan traded almost unchanged against the USD at 6.7855 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening hours as the Trump-Xi summit gets underway. The offshore yuan (CNH) has rallied for six consecutive sessions against the USD. It is now eyeing a near 3-year high of 6.7740 per US dollar as the market seems to be pricing a status quo in terms of US-China trade relations after the summit.Economic outlook: All regional eyes are on the Beijing summit. Any signs of diplomatic progress regarding Iran or AI trade regulations could trigger massive, rapid reversals in regional risk sentiment.Top 5 events to watch today Trump-Xi Summit Developments Impact: USD/CNH, global equities, WTI, Brent crudeUK Q1 GDP Prelim - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y, Q4 2025: 1% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US Retail Sales (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 0.5% m/m, Mar: 1.7% m/m) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 9 May) - (consensus: 205K, prior: 200K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesApplied Materials Earnings - after US session close Impact: Semiconductor stocks, Nasdaq 100Chart of the day - AUD/USD bullish breakout from minor range Fig. 1. AUD/USD minor trend as of 14 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged a bullish breakout from a minor “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration on Wednesday, 13 May 2026.Currently, it is retesting the former “Symmetrical Triangle” range resistance, which has now become a near-term pull-back support at 0.7244, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which is holding at the 50 level (see Fig. 1).Watch the 0.7210 key short-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD. A clearance above 0.7265 triggers the next intermediate resistances at 0.7300 and 0.7340.However, a break and an hourly close below 0.7210 negates the bullish tone for another round of potential minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 0.7180 (also the 20-day moving average), below it may see further weakness towards 0.7145/7130 next. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks rise but show mixed reactions to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed ChairNasdaq and S&P 500 continue to explode to new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones still strugglesExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 After a long and uncertain process, the Senate has confirmed that Kevin Warsh will officially replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve for a four-year term.Although he has not served on the Federal Reserve board since 2011, the new Fed Chair has stayed close to economics and finance as a partner at Stanley Druckenmiller's family office, which is one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds.US stock benchmarks are mostly rising after the news, but the market’s reaction to Warsh’s confirmation is mixed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to jump to new all-time highs, signalling a welcome change and benefiting from strong momentum in growth stocks.In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still struggling, as blue-chip investors try to figure out how a Fed led by Warsh will address persistent inflation and ongoing global challenges. Daily Market Performance (11:13). May 8, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Overall, the reaction across different asset classes shows that Participants are feeling uncertain.Both the US Dollar and Precious metals are still rising, building on their strong weekly gains as investors look for cover their bearish positions in the asset class, while, cryptocurrencies and US Treasuries continue to struggle. The Market division shows that the market is still unsure about the new Fed Chair’s approach – hence, traders will have to assess his views at the coming FOMC meeting on June 17. Explore the different reactions in Stock Markets by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Inflation is buoyant and Trump lands in China – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateChart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustionGold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysisCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (15:14) – Source: TradingView – May 13, 2026 The Stock Market heatmap is still heavily fractured – Stock Market leaders like Nvidia, Tesla, Eli Lilly and a few semiconductors are doing the heavy lifting while other names largely struggle and the AI boom continues to bulldoze the Nasdaq to new records.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView After initial struggles, the Dow Jones is rallying back to the top of its tighter consolidation between 49,500 and 49,800, which provides further strength of support and resistance levels.For an upside breakout, look for a 1H candle break on high volume above 49,800 – the confirmation comes on a close above 50,000.On the other hand, bears will want to see a break below 49,500 and a longer-run pullback below 49,000.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,780 post-Warsh confirmation highs49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range highs)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500 (mini range lows – short-term bearish below))Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the record highs reached in today's session, led by a gigantic rebound after yesterday's rough correction, the immediate highs aren't so optimistic.Indeed, the new record is stalling right above the previous record, a price action that hints at stop chasing rather than a continuous rise – Still, the previous rally hints at decent potential for upside, but to confirm, the index will have to print above 29,600.On the other hand, if the action falls below the 50-Hour MA (29,160), the action may get dire.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,485 morning highsNext level 29,600 (Short-term bullish above)Support Levels50-Hour MA (29,160) (ST bearish below)28,500 short-term pivot28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is continuously following the higher part of its bull channel, helping a consistent bounce to new all-time highs – The Index is showing the strongest intraday price action out of the 3 major US Benchmarks.As long as the action remains above the Channel's mid-line 7,375, expect the rally to persistent records to continue.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)7,415 161.% FibNext stop 7,480Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsTraders have been preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting for months and it is finally happening, with the two leaders meeting in BeijingWhile the US-Iran war takes a step back in the headlines, economies are not welcoming its side-effects on inflation, exploding in recent releases Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Traders have spent months getting ready for the quintessential Trump-Xi summit, and now it is finally taking place.As the two leaders meet in person in Beijing, the broader market is waiting to see what happens. Many expect this meeting to bring major geopolitical, economic progress and push back against the de-globalization worries that were common in 2025. While investors await for further news, most asset classes are staying in consolidation.WTI Crude Oil is the only exception to the market pause. Continuous supply shortages are pushing oil prices back above $100, and even though the US-Iran war is getting less daily coverage, its serious economic effects are becoming more obvious. Oil 4H Chart. May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Tuesday’s CPI report showed a large 3.7% increase, 0.2% above expectations, but what really worried traders was this morning’s PPI release (Producer Price Index). Wholesale inflation came in at 5.2% year-over-year, much higher than the expected 4.9%.A 1.4% rise on the month!These back-to-back inflation reports are not so surprising, but definitely unpleasant. Since producer costs usually lead to higher consumer prices later, the high PPI suggests that retail inflation could remain high in the coming months. US Morning Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar This structural inflation spike almost guarantees there will be no rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, as seen in the Fed Rate pricing.This rise in structural inflation means the Federal Reserve and other central banks will not be able to find an easy solution. Fed Pricing for the September 2026 meeting – Small chances of a both a hike and a cut are priced in. Source: CMEGroup As seen in the last meetings across major Central Banks, policymakers are already changing their guidance and reconsidering whether to cut rates or raise them further.Economic clarity from the Trump-Xi talks, the broader FX markets—and particularly the US Dollar—are remaining remarkably stoic, bracing for the next massive fundamental catalyst.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustionAsia open: US inflation reaccelerates to 3.8%, and chip stocks falterGold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysisNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Both the Nasdaq and Japanese Nikkei 225 are dominating the charts over the past week and half, largely outperforming the more defensive and traditional TSX, Dow Jones and DAX.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is rallying slowly towards the 98.50 pivot zone, undoing a decent part of its Ceasefire correction.The current test will be very important – US Dollar bulls will want to see a continuous rise above the 4H 200-period MA (98.72), while bears will want to see a slowdown and rejection around current levels.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot4H 200-period MA (98.72)99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.18 4H 50-period MA98.00 Major SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 13, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is back in a much stronger position after recent weeks of struggle, but the rise isn't uniform – With the exception of the Yen, all Asia-Pacific major currencies are up against the greenback, as their respective Central Banks' hawkish pricing dominates!Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 13, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is actually losing some ground against all majors – A bizarre divergence when looking at Crude prices still exploding every second.This will be a divergence to capture for some mean-reversion traders if this dynamic doesn't correct by then. USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Volatility in FX Markets is slowly decreasing and USD/CAD, while rallying from its range lows, seems to be decreasing the pace of its rise, as indicated by the diverging RSI from overbought levels.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3720 – 1.3750 Resistance1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)Support Levels:1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Except for the many Fed Speeches expected throughout the coming 7 days, traders will await for a few economic releases including the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing release next Monday, and Canadian CPI on Tuesday.And don't forget the Beige Book next Wednesday afternoon!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US inflation accelerated sharply in April, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% y/y and core CPI to 2.8% y/y, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” Federal Reserve narrative and effectively eliminating expectations for rate cuts in 2026.Semiconductor stocks led a broad technology pullback after an extended rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 3% as major chip names, including Qualcomm and Intel, experienced aggressive profit-taking.Chart of the day: USD/JPY climbed toward the key 157.90 intervention risk zone as rising US yields strengthened the US dollar, although bearish RSI divergence now signals growing short-term upside exhaustion risks.Top macro headlines US consumer prices jump further: Headline annual US CPI inflation rose to 3.8% y/y in April, higher than expected and the highest in three years. This means real wage growth has turned negative for the first time since 2023. Core inflation also jumped to 2.8% y/y, its steepest rise since September 2025.Iran peace deal on 'life support': Hopes for a Middle East peace resolution are fading rapidly after US President Donald Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire is on "life support," sending oil prices sharply higher.Semiconductor sector sells off: A 70% rally over the past six weeks in chip stocks unraveled, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling 3%. Market darlings like Qualcomm (-11.5%) and Intel (-7%) dragged down the broader tech sector.US and Japan address FX volatility: Amid a surging US dollar, US and Japanese officials, including Bessent, agreed that excess foreign exchange volatility is undesirable.Anthropic share transfer rules raise doubts: AI giant Anthropic updated rules surrounding the buying and transfer of its shares, raising doubts about ownership rights ahead of its highly anticipated IPO.Key macro themes Fed rate cut bets wiped out: The historic energy shock and 3.8% CPI print have completely wiped out market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. If the Fed does move, current pricing from the CME FedWatch tool shows it will be to tighten.Political pressures stoke global yields: Wary that a successor to UK leader Keir Starmer may increase borrowing, long-term UK bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998. This complements rising yields in the US due to inflation fears.Potential froth coming off the AI rally: The sharp decline in semiconductors suggests investors are taking profits from an overheated sector, exacerbated by wild volatility in Asian tech markets and rising long-term borrowing costs.Global market impact Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, dragged down by semiconductor stocks. The Dow inched higher by only 0.1%. Europe closed in the red. US healthcare was a bright spot, gaining 2% with UnitedHealth up 3%.Fixed Income: US Treasury yields surged 5 bps across the curve, reacting to inflation data and a soft 10-year note auction characterized by a low bid/cover ratio. UK 30-year yields hit highs not seen since 1998.FX: The US Dollar rose broadly as rate cut expectations evaporated. Sterling fell 0.5%, becoming the biggest decliner among major currencies amid UK political uncertainty.Commodities: Oil prices rebounded aggressively on fading ceasefire hopes, with WTI surging 4% to move back above the critical $100/bbl level. Brent rallied by 3% to close at $107.70/bbl.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Japan managed to end higher on Tuesday, 12 May, but Asia ex-Japan broadly declined. South Korea's KOSPI ended down 2% after a wild rollercoaster ride, setting the tone for the global semiconductor sell-off.Currencies: The South Korean Won slumped 1% against the surging US Dollar, reflecting vulnerability to the global energy shock and risk-off sentiment.Economic outlook: Focus shifts heavily to the upcoming Trump-Xi Beijing summit. Investors are seeking clarity on AI policies and broader trade relations as inflation risks mount globally.Top 4 economic data/events to watch today AU Wespac Consumer Confidence (May) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200Euro Zone Q1 GDP (Flash) & Industrial Production (Mar) - 5:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Producer Price Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.9% y/y, Mar: 4% y/y) Impact: US Treasuries, USD, US stock indicesAsian Earnings Heavyweights: Tencent, Alibaba, Nissan, Softbank Impact: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, Global Tech stocksChart of the day - USD/JPY squeezed up to intervention risk level of 157.90 Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 13 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The recent four-day rebound of 1.8% in the USD/JPY, from the 6 May 2026 low of 155.03, has reached the prior Japanese authorities’ “stealth intervention” level of 157.90.In addition, short-term momentum has turned bearish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Tuesday, May 12, in the US session.Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 156.50 may see a further potential drop to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.55 and 154.65 (see Fig. 1).However, a clearance with an hourly close above 158.10 negates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average) and 159.10. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar saw a sharp correction after the fragile ceasefire began, but that downward trend has now completely stopped.With the peace narrative having stalled, it is clear that the FX market is taking a more realistic view of the US-Iran diplomatic talks than Stock Markets, which remain optimistic despite little real progress.Foreign exchange markets are focusing on energy prices instead of tech sector excitement, and are adjusting for geopolitical risks. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView. May 12, 2026 After gaining against the US Dollar in late March and early April, most major currencies are back to trading in a narrow range.Today, though, they are quickly reversing as WTI Crude oil moves back above $100 with the recently souring narrative..The ongoing conflict and related economic challenges are supporting the US Dollar. Although new reports suggest Iran may dilute its highly enriched uranium to 3.7% and 20%, overall diplomatic talks have stalled, and the uncertainty continues to disrupt energy supply chains while adding to the demand for the US Dollar. Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. May 12, 2026 Along with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a higher-than-expected inflation report has strengthened the US Dollar, and make sure to stay logged in because there will be more reports for inflation coming up tomorrow (PPI).Today’s CPI showed headline inflation at 3.8% (compared to 3.7% expected) and core CPI at 2.8% (versus 2.6% forecast) – A huge rise but not so surprising considering the explosion in gas prices.The strong inflation reading keeps suggesting that the Fed will keep rates as is (if not hiking!), putting pressure on other major currencies. US Morning Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to assess the current state of the FX Market and where to look next. Discover:Chart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bblAsia open: Stocks hit new highs on AI optimism as US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a threadSilver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysisDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index Daily Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is breaking out of its end-March downward channel after forming a triple bottom right around the 97.50 level.With the recent lows conciding with the mid-zone of the larger 96.00 to 100.00 range, the consolidation could be tightening further between 98.00 to 100.00 as long as the peace process doesn't move forward.Expect more US Dollar rallies if the Index breaches 08.50Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot98.78 4h 200-period MA99.40 to 99.50 ResistanceInitial War Spike 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)Support 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportRange lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView GBP/USD is still remaining between 1.3410 to 1.36 but now rejecting its resistance zone, heading back to support.Add to the ongoing outflows political turmoil in the UK with Keir Starmer's Ministers resigning and you get there a pretty bearish outlook for the Pound.While still far, look at whether the 1.34170 (2024 top) level holds.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsDecember Resistance 1.36 (range highs)pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.38Support LevelsKey Pivot 1.3410 to 1.34401.34170 (2024 top) levelPivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.331.32 War SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is also rejecting its 1.18 resistance and quickly falling towards the 1.17 momentum pivot, with bearish acceleration expected as the RSI is falling below neutral.Sellers are also breaching the 4H 50-period MA, hence this could weigh on the price action. While still lacking momentum, traders will want to confirm the action with strong bear candles and volumes within 1.1720.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.17380 4H 50-period MAResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highs1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent TestSep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport Levels1.17 to 1.1720 March PivotRebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.163501.1540 to 1.1570 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains strongly supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions after hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks faded, increasing the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption and sustained global energy supply tightness.Prediction market data from Polymarket shows sharply declining probabilities of shipping traffic normalising in the Strait of Hormuz by May and June 2026, reinforcing elevated geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.Technically, WTI crude is showing bullish breakout conditions above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supported by bullish candlestick formations and positive RSI momentum, with $102.54 acting as the key breakout resistance level. The optimism that was being priced in by global markets last week for an imminent second round of US-Iran peace deal talks to take place this week has fizzled out after US President Trump rejected Tehran’s response to the latest US proposal on Sunday.The key hurdle is the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium. In a nutshell, without any set dates for peace talks emerging on the near-term horizon, the ongoing two-month-plus closure in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to extend, which may aggravate the global energy and oil crunch as oil flows continue to dwindle.Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure may sustain elevated oil prices Fig. 1: WTI crude oil futures & other cross assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 8 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: Polymarket probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal as of 12 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Despite the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that has remained in place since 8 April 2026, oil continues to be the top-performing asset class.From the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 through Friday, 8 May 2026, WTI crude oil futures surged by 42%, underscoring persistent supply disruption concerns and elevated geopolitical risk premiums in the energy market (see Fig. 1).Betting data from Polymarket (a major prediction market platform) suggests a low probability of a return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.The probability of Hormuz’s traffic returning to normal by the end of May 2026 has been reduced to 12.5% as of 12 May 2026 from 35.5% printed on 7 May 2026.A similar trend is evident for the end of June 2026, where the probability has fallen sharply to 37.5% from 60.5% over the same period (see Fig. 2).Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI crude – Bullish expansion above 20-day and 50-day MAs Fig. 3: West Texas oil CFD as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Rebound towards March/April 2026 medium-term range top with 95.00 as key short-term pivotal support (see Fig. 3).Resistances: 102.54, 108.20, and 112.84Next supports: 90.50, 86.58, and 82.89Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the WTI crude The price actions of the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) have started to accelerate higher above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, following a brief period of subdued volatility observed on Friday, 8 May, and Monday, 11 May.The current daily candlestick (Tuesday, 12 May) has transformed into an impending “Bullish Marubozu” pattern after a prior daily bullish “Hammer” seen on 7 May, coupled with a retest on its key 50-day moving average. A sign of positive follow-through that may lead to higher prices.The hourly RSI momentum indicator continues to exhibit bullish momentum conditions as it remains supported by an ascending trendline. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 continued its strong rally to a fresh record high of 63,788, driven largely by technology-related heavyweights such as SoftBank Group and Murata Manufacturing.Despite the broader medium-term bullish trend remaining intact, technical indicators now suggest a near-term corrective pullback risk below the 64,145 resistance level, supported by a developing bearish “Head & Shoulders” pattern.Momentum conditions have weakened as hourly RSI bearish divergence and Elliott Wave/Fibonacci analysis point to exhaustion in the recent five-wave bullish impulsive sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term retracement toward 61,945 and lower support zones. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highs”, published on 16 April 2026.The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 index futures) have rallied as expected in the past four weeks and surpassed the 62,044, as highlighted in our earlier report.It hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 63,788 on Monday, 11 May 2026, led by technology-related component stocks in the past month, such as Softbank Group (+58%), and Murata Manufacturing (+53%).However, the price actions of financial assets do not move vertically, as there will be periods of countertrend movements or trend reversals due to changing sentiment.Right now, the Nikkei 225 faces the risk of a minor corrective countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend phase.Let’s unpack in greater detail.Nikkei 225 – Minor bearish “Head & Shoulders” sighted Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Minor bearish corrective decline within medium-term uptrend below 64,145 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 1).Supports: 61,945 (neckline of “Head & Shoulders”), 61,180/60,795, and 59,970 (also the 20-day moving average).Next resistances: 65,010/65,040 and 66,190/66,568 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the Nikkei 225 Since 7 May 2026, its price action has traced out a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration, indicating a potential end of its minor uptrend phase from the 30 April 2026 low.Based on the Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci analysis, the price actions have completed a five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move sequence (labelled as i, ii, iii, iv & v) with a potential terminal level at 63,772 (based on 0.382 Fibonacci extension from the start of the minor bullish impulsive up move from the 30 April 2026 low). The next probable move is a minor corrective decline to retrace its prior five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish exhaustion condition (bearish divergence since 7 May 2026 at its overbought region, which supports the potential incoming minor corrective decline. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equity markets, led by Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, climbed to fresh record highs as AI-driven optimism continued to overpower geopolitical concerns surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.Rising oil prices, stronger inflation expectations, and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric reinforced the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, pushing US Treasury yields higher and supporting broad US dollar strength.Chart of the day: The Hang Seng Index maintained a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from its 20-day moving average, with momentum indicators suggesting potential upside continuation above the 26,210/100 support zone.Top macro headlines US-Iran ceasefire 'on life support': US President Donald Trump stated the ceasefire with Iran is fading, dashing hopes for an imminent peace deal after rejecting Iran's recent proposal as "unacceptable" over the weekend.Global stocks reach record highs: Major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, powered to new record highs as the "artificial intelligence fever" vastly outweighed concerns over Middle East supply shocks.Alphabet and Amazon tap overseas debt: Tech giants are issuing debt in lower-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss francs to fund massive AI infrastructure buildouts without draining cash reserves.Trump heads to China for crucial summit: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set for comprehensive talks spanning Iran, nuclear issues, trade, and AI, accompanied by a large entourage of US corporate titans from companies like Tesla, Apple, and BlackRock.US CPI data looms: Markets brace for Tuesday's crucial April CPI report, with headline inflation expected to jump to 3.7% y/y (from 3.3%) primarily due to the energy price shock caused by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.Key macro themes AI fever overpowers geopolitics: Record US equity prices are coexisting with elevated oil and rising yields. According to BlackRock, markets are comfortably pricing in both AI-driven growth and the impact of the Middle East supply shock, remaining heavily "pro-risk" despite the chaos.Extreme market concentration: Top-heavy indices have become a global feature. The top 10 US stocks now account for 33% of the overall market value. [cite: 2] Meanwhile, single tech champions like Samsung and TSMC make up roughly 20% and 40% of their respective national indices.Inflation and hawkish Fed risks: With inflation metrics heating up and oil surging, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the future of monetary policy could actually include interest rate increases, fundamentally challenging recent rate-cut hopes.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new record highs. [cite: 2] The tech sector gained 1%, and energy rallied 2.6%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index reached a new peak (+2.6%).Fixed Income: US Treasury yields climbed, with a 6 basis point rise at the short end bear steepening the curve as a 3-year auction drew weak demand.FX: The US Dollar inched higher, with the Japanese Yen serving as the biggest G10 decliner. Emerging market currencies like the Indian Rupee and South Korean Won dropped sharply on dollar strength and high energy costs.Commodities: Oil surged 3% (jumping $3/barrel) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Silver rallied 7% to hit a 2-month high at $86.10/oz, outperforming Gold, which only recorded a modest gain of 0.4% due to a rebound in US Treasury yields.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Regional markets broadly surged. The Nikkei, KOSPI, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan indices all hit new record highs. China's A-share market reached an 11-year high following a positive data dump showing surging export growth.Currencies: The region experienced broad weakness against the USD. The Yen (-0.3%) and Won (-1%) declined despite the massive regional equity rally.Economic outlook: China's latest trade data showed a widening trade surplus and rising price pressures in April, suggesting the economy is moving out of disinflation, though unemployment ticked up.Top 3 data/events to watch today AU NAB Business Confidence (Apr) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) - 5.00 pm SGT (consensus:- 20, Apr:-20) Impact: EUR/USD. EUR crosses, DAXUS Core Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.7% y/y, Mar: 2.6% y/y) Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Hang Seng Index rebounded from 20-day MA Fig. 1: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have managed a minor bullish reversal right above its 20-day moving average after a 1.7% decline from the 7 May 2026 intraday high of 26,634.The overall price structure remains bullish as it continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has exhibited bullish momentum conditions as it continues to be supported by an ascending trendline above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level).Watch the 26,210/100 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a potential bullish bias. A clearance above 26,723 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 27,100 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 1).On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 26,100 jeopardizes the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next intermediate support at 25,930 (also the key 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks somewhat consolidate as uncertainty withstands to start the week, preparing for tomorrow's CPI reportNasdaq and S&P 500 continue to grind higher, supported by option-positioning and a very resilient semiconductor sectorExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are starting to settle as uncertainty returns at the beginning of the week. After last week’s big, news-driven moves, traders are stepping back and getting ready for tomorrow’s essential CPI report; A kind of cautious trading is common before major economic data, especially since central banks are watching closely for signs of how the Middle East conflict might be affecting consumer prices.Adding to this economic uncertainty, both the US and Iran turned down each other’s diplomatic proposals over the weekend. Without a ceasefire agreement, WTI Crude Oil prices are steadily rising right at the edge of $100 – As energy costs keep climbing, the risk of persistent, war-related inflation remains the main obstacle to hopes for interest rate cuts but this seemingly isn't much of a concern for Stock Markets these days! WTI Crude 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. May 11, 2026 Even with these ongoing geopolitical issues, the broader stock market is still resilient, showing that participants appear to be looking beyond the current Middle East situation and are focusing their optimism on the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in China later this week.With this sense of optimism about upcoming global events, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep moving higher. Strong options activity and a bullying semiconductor sector are helping to support these gains, even as worries about the bigger economic picture remain. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is taking a more cautious approach, but strong interest in tech stocks is keeping the overall market afloat, despite ongoing uncertainty. Daily Market Performance (11:54). May 11, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Let's prepare for tomorrow's quintessential US CPI report by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Asia open: US futures dipped as US-Iran peace deal hopes dimmedMarkets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demandCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56) – Source: TradingView – May 11, 2026 The split continues further with Semiconductors really demarcates itself from the past week's tech-wide rally, while the rest lag behind, leaving the DJIA underperforming the Nasdaq and S&P 500.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is consolidating further between 49,400 to 49,700 as participants keep placing more attention to the higher-volatility Nasdaq and S&P 500.The RSI momentum is somewhat turning lower and rejecting the 2H 50-MA (49,676), pointing to lower action in the upcoming action.Watch for 49,000 to the downside, and 50,000 for the upside.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 50-MA (49,676)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq continues its rocket path towards 29,500, up 11.78% since its prior all-time high.With the ongoing extension, overbought RSI conditions are not bringing back any sign of rejection. Looking at the tight bull channel (multiple green candles overlapping each other, I invite you to discover this powerful pattern) seen on the Daily chart, no element is poiting to a slowdown of the consistent price discovery.Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!To the upside, look at 30,000 on the long-term – To the downside, below 29,000 traders can expect accelerated downside.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,500 potential resistanceNext level 29,750Support Levels29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is still pulling higher within its upward channel, testing its upper bound.By failing to reject it, odds for an upside breakout are increasing, but this will be heavily contingent on tomorrow's CPI release.Look at reactions to the 7,450 potential resistance, with the next stop at 7,500.For the downside, sellers will want to see a clear rejection and sale below 7,400.On the bigger picture, breaking 7,250 points to a larger retracement (to previous all-time highs?)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,430 - 7,450 Channel extension potential resistanceNext stop 7,500Support Levels7,320 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260 Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US futures edged lower in the early Asian session: Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace response, dampening hopes for a formal US-Iran agreement and keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated.Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data: Reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and supporting elevated Treasury yields.The AI-driven equity rally remains intact globally: Supported by semiconductor momentum, expanding hyperscaler AI capex, and new industrial AI initiatives involving Apple, Intel, and Jeff Bezos.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s bullish impulsive up move overstretched, at risk of minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term resistance. Intermediate supports at 28,835 and 28,460/280.Top macro headlines Trump rejects Iran peace response: U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US peace proposal 'unacceptable' over the weekend. This diplomatic snag casts a shadow over the immediate prospects of a formalized treaty, keeping a floor under geopolitical risk premiums even as active military engagements pause.US jobs report defies expectations: A better-than-expected April employment report (actual: 115K vs consensus: 62K) has led analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve may forgo any interest rate cuts in 2026, as robust hiring and sticky inflation keep policy restrictive.US-Iran ceasefire holds after test: Reuters confirmed that while the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire late last week in the most serious test of their ceasefire, both sides indicated they did not want to escalate, and the situation has returned to normal.Apple & Intel's chip pact: The AI hardware supercycle continues to dominate, with reports emerging over the weekend that Apple has reached a preliminary deal with Intel to produce chips.Yuan hits 3-year highs ahead of summit: China's yuan strengthened to a three-year high against the US dollar, setting the stage for the highly anticipated Beijing summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.Bezos targets industrial AI: Reuters Breakingviews highlighted that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is raising $10 billion to help build AI models that understand the physics of production, signaling the next wave of AI capital expenditure.Key macro themes The "No Rate Cuts" reality: The combination of the hot April jobs report and persistent inflation has cemented the "higher for longer" narrative. Markets are actively pricing out the likelihood of any Federal Reserve easing for the remainder of 2026.Complex geopolitics (ceasefire holds, diplomacy stalls): Equity investors are navigating a nuanced Middle East landscape. While the physical ceasefire holding prevents a devastating oil spike above $100/bbl, Trump's "unacceptable" designation of Iran's terms means energy and defense sectors will retain a persistent risk bid.AI Capex expanding beyond Silicon Valley: The AI boom is broadening. With Morgan Stanley projecting top-tier hyperscaler AI capex to top $1.1 trillion next year, investments are now flowing into industrial and physical-world AI applications.Global market impact (last 48 hours) Equities: Wall Street advanced robustly on Friday, with the S&P 500 recording weekly gains. Semiconductor giants like AMD and Micron led the charge higher as the AI trade remains the dominant market force. Today’s early Asian session (Monday), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures dipped 0.2% after Trump rejected Iran’s peace deal proposal.Fixed Income: The strong jobs report keeps intense pressure on the bond market. The US long bond yield (30-year) remains supported at 4.90% (50-day moving average), implying risk of deeply anchored inflation expectations.FX: The Japanese Yen remains highly volatile following Japan's suspected $67 billion intervention over the past two weeks. The Yuan is serving as a regional anchor at three-year highs.Commodities: Gold rally remained subdued below its 50-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate resistance at around $4,775/oz, while China's PBOC loaded up on bullion for an 18th straight month offers support. Crude oil is fluctuating near the $100 level.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Asian tech giants continue to provide the bull run's center of gravity. South Korea's KOSPI recently crossed the historic 7,000 mark as Samsung's market cap surpassed $1 trillion, driven by surging memory chip demand. Mixed performances; KOSPI (+4%), and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%), while intraday losses were seen in Hang Seng Index (-0.9%) and ASX 200 (-0.8%) at this time writing.Currencies: The PBOC's management of the Yuan is keeping regional FX relatively stable ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, though the Yen's wild swings (recently touching 155/$) are keeping carry-trade investors on edge.Economic outlook: The region is absorbing the dual impacts of an AI-driven export boom (massively benefiting Taiwan and South Korea) while navigating the structural headwinds of expensive energy imports.Top 3 events to watch today China Inflation Rate & PPI (Apr) - 9:30 am SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y-Inflation & 1.5% y/y-PPI) Impact: USD/CNH, Hang Seng, China A50, AUD/USDUS Existing Home Sales (Apr) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.05M, Mar:3.98M) Impact: US stock indices, USDGeopolitical updates on the US-Iran peace proposal Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nasdaq 100 due for a minor corrective decline Fig. 1: Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 11 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) had undergone a steep bullish impulsive up move sequence since 30 April 2026, and two key technical elements suggest that it now faces an imminent risk of a minor corrective pull-back.Last Friday’s rally on 8 May has led the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index to hover right below the upper boundary of its medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low. Secondly, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to stage a downward reversal after it surged close to an extreme overbought level of 85 (see Fig. 1).Watch the 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 28,835 (downside trigger) may expose the next intermediate support at 28,460/280 (also the lower boundary of the ascending channel from 30 March 2026 low).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 29,615 invalidates the minor bearish scenario to see the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 29,893/953 and 30,410/417. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.