Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf spoke today at the Atlantic Council during IMF World Bank Week in Washington DC.Speaking ahead of the event, Governor Makhlouf said: “Ireland is a small, highly open, highly globalised and very well-connected economy in an increasingly fragmented world.   An environment of trade barriers and policy uncertainty and unpredictability has economic costs for us. Our analysis suggests that 15 per cent tariffs will reduce our exports to the US. But they are not prohibitive to trade, and our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.“This serves to highlight that while the US market is important for Ireland, it is far from our only one.  “Ireland is part of the world’s largest single market. We are facing the current challenges from a position of relative strength, having benefitted from decades of FDI-led growth.  We have a flexible and skilled labour force, strong economic and population growth, and a welcome, intense focus from Government on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing. “However, it remains essential that Ireland integrates further into the EU’s single market and for the Single Market itself to deliver on its potential as set out in last year’s recommendations from Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta.”“New ways of working and new relationships are vital in the face of the headwinds we see globally.  “That is why institutions like the Atlantic Council and the IMF are important.  We in Ireland value our engagement with global institutions and we value relationships that support our commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, collaboration and understanding.“The IMF’s convening power brings us all to the same table, offering a vital forum for dialogue and coordinated action. It’s not a theoretical exercise.  It is the essential work that helps us see past our domestic concerns to the broader interconnected reality.”Commenting on current monetary policy, Governor Makhlouf said: “We continue to be in a good place with the disinflationary process behind us, the European economy showing resilience and inflation where we want it to be.” “We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”Concluding, Governor Makhlouf said: “We need to recognise that the world which we grew up with has changed and that more change is guaranteed. “I suggest that our energies should be tilted towards the challenge of creating the new world ahead of us rather than the comfort of preserving the old. The stage is now set for building new relationships, adopting new frameworks, and creating new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit. I know that Irish institutions are committed to international cooperation, and we will continue to advocate for – and play a key role in – developing the new multilateral order that our economies need and our communities want.”ENDSFurther InformationRead the full text of Governor Makhlouf’s speech on our website. 

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The Central Bank has reduced the Insurance Compensation Fund levy from 2% to 1% as of the 1st January 2026, marking the first change in the levy in 14 years.The change will positively affect a large cohort of consumers with non-life insurance policies and the Central Bank expects firms to act in the best interest of those consumers by ensuring any reductions on eligible policies are passed on without delay.The ICF remains an important fund, providing protection to certain Irish non-life policyholders in the event of their insurer going into liquidation. The Central Bank of Ireland today (3rd October 2025) announced a reduction in the Insurance Compensation Fund Levy to 1%, which will take effect from 1st January 2026. This marks the first change in the levy in 14 years since 2012, a reduction of 1% from the maximum allowable 2% under the Insurance Act 1964. The change will affect many customers with non-life insurance policies such as home and motor insurance (if the motor insurance firm is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland). The fund is collected by the Revenue Commissioners and used to pay compensation to consumers for claims on failed insurance firms. Deputy Governor Mary-Elizabeth McMunn said: “The Insurance Compensation Fund is an important fund, the purpose of which is to protect eligible policy holders in the event of their insurer going into liquidation. The changes announced today reflect the financial position of the fund and the reduction in the levy will positively impact a large cohort of policyholders in Ireland.“It is the responsibility of insurance firms to pay the correct levy and it is important that they are ready to implement the change from 1st January 2026. We expect firms which charge this levy to act in the best interests of consumers by ensuring that any reductions on eligible policies are passed on immediately. We have been engaging with the Department of Finance, Insurance Ireland, the Revenue Commissioners and relevant insurers on this change, and will continue to monitor the fund and carry out another annual review next year.” The Central Bank of Ireland expects firms to act in the best interests of consumers. Firms must now ensure their systems and processes are up to date to implement the change from 1st January 2026.For firms which explicitly pass the levy on to policyholders as separate charge listed within their documentation, the Central Bank’s expectation is that the reduction is reflected in the policy from 1st January 2026 onwards. This also applies to current policies which are paid in instalments into 2026; where the levy charge is explicitly stated within the policy, the levy should be updated to reflect the reduction from 1st January 2026. The Central Bank of Ireland also recommends no further request for credit for the fund from the Minister for Finance is required at this time. The reduction reflects that a rate of 1% is likely to be sufficient to repay the outstanding loan balance and cover anticipated calls on the fund in 2026, taking into account companies which are already in administration or liquidation. View further information.ENDSFurther informationThe Central Bank of Ireland is responsible for assessing and administering the Insurance Compensation Fund, and monitors the Fund throughout the year.  The annual review of the Fund involves an assessment of the size of the fund, expected Levy collections, funding requirements and reviews whether the Levy needs to remain in place and at what percentage it should be set. In the Bank’s most recent annual assessment of the financial position of the Fund it was determined that a 1% levy applied in 2026 should be sufficient to repay the outstanding loan balance due to the Exchequer and cover expected future compensation to Irish policyholders that have valid claims.The reduction from 2% to 1% is estimated to reduce the amount collected by the levy by c. €57m across the whole sector. In terms of the reduction for consumers this will depend on the precise policy and premium paid. By way of example, the average motor premium for H1 2024 was c. €616 (National Claims Information Database private motor report) and so a 1% reduction would equate to c. €6 for consumers. Consumers may also have a number of affected policies (e.g. motor insurance and home insurance).View more information on the levy.Kelly Horn kelly.horn@centralbank.ie / 086 210 3359Media@centralbank.ie

Good morning everyone, and many thanks to Séamus and Michael for the invitation to speak to the Compliance Institute’s Annual Conference this year.1Given the important role compliance professionals play in ensuring the financial system is well run, you are key stakeholders for Central Banks and Regulators, and so I am delighted to address you all this morning.The theme of today’s conference, “Compliance leadership in an uncertain world”, is very appropriate one. And from the breadth and complexity of topics on the agenda today it is easy to see why!Indeed uncertainty and complexity are a challenge that all leaders are having to navigate, and so today I would like to share some perspectives on this uncertain world.I will first set out some of the macro challenges facing the financial sector, before delving a little deeper in terms of what that means for you and for us. And lastly, I will touch on the turning regulatory cycle, including the simplification agenda, given it is regulators and compliance professionals who are the coalface of implementing the regulatory and supervisory framework.Risk EnvironmentBut first, the risk environment we are all operating in.I think we can all agree that we are living through challenging and uncertain times.Times of great geo-political change, and potentially of great geo-economic fragmentation. But also times of huge, and indeed rapid, technological progress, reshaping our daily lives.Both of these could have profound implications for our economy and our financial system, and come alongside other great structural shifts, including an escalating, and in many ways a potentially existential, climate challenge. While we have all been taking about geo-political, technological and climate change for a number of years now, the pace and scale of that change has clearly accelerated this year. Once tail risks and events are now looking much less unlikely; and we are all having to navigate a transition to a potentially structurally very different world. Navigating such change is not something new for us, and indeed both regulators and industry have built up plenty of muscle memory responding to crises. Probably more muscles and more memories than we would wish to have! Like many in this room my career has spanned the financial crisis, the euro crisis, Brexit and Covid – and for a number of years now responding to an increasingly volatile and risky world. Lessons learned and changes made throughout that time have helped us all navigate the recent series of shocks – facing them with agility, better data, stronger risk management capabilities, and with a system bolstered and buffered by the resilience we have collectively built over the last decade.The depth, breadth and pace of change underway, however, leaves no room for complacency. This is why vigilance, resilience and agility would be my watch words for the period ahead.And I would reiterate what I said in my first speech as Deputy Governor this year: We need to be prepared for both short term shocks and long term shifts, for novel as well as traditional risks, and for resilience, both financial and non-financial, to be tested in different ways.2Managing risks and seizing opportunities – the long and the short of itBut let me unpack that a little, and speak about responding to change and challenge, both in terms of seizing any opportunities while managing the risks. For it is of course the financial system’s job to both take and manage risk, and indeed there are risks from not taking your opportunities.Part of the challenge, however, is that what we are dealing with is both cyclical and structural, meaning we are managing both significant risks and uncertainty in the near term, as well as adapting to an accelerated transition to a longer term different world.Let me take some examples, around these geo-economic, digital and climate transitions.In terms of geopolitics, we have all been navigating the short term shocks and shifts taking place this year, and indeed geopolitical risk has been a focus of supervisors for a number of years.For me it is a classic example of where macro meets micro, and in our Regulatory and Supervisory Outlook this year we set out a framework for thinking about geopolitical risk and its transmission channels.3 This includes the impact of risks crystallising through the traditional risk channels we grapple with, from credit, liquidity and market risks, to business model and operational risks.  As well as ensuring you are managing the risks to your consumers in the face of these macro-economic headwinds. There is also the clear risk that regulatory fragmentation follows geo-political ones, and the risks from divergent regimes and lowering of requirements is something I know is on your minds too.4But in addition to an unprecedented short term policy uncertainty at a global level, we are also faced with the potential continuation of a recent trend towards geo-economic fragmentation over the longer term.While both of these are obviously a challenge for a small open economy like Ireland – and one we are very much alive to, our commitment to open markets and our international financial sector is for me an enduring strength, one which can help us seize opportunities even in the midst of fragmentation. In terms of digitalisation, the speed at which it is moving makes it feel sometimes like the short and the long term are rapidly converging. And while we are all grappling with the operational risks and challenges we are facing in an increasingly technological financial sector, as I have said before the digital transition, done right, has immense potential – delivering better outcomes for consumers, investors, and the wider economy.5 And so it is crucial that you are ready to capitalise on that potential. That you are proactively and appropriately adapting your business models, strategies and systems to do so, to make sure you and your consumers are not left behind.6 For we want the benefits of innovation to accrue to the wider system. This is something we have sought to foster through our policy, our supervision, our innovation engagement and innovation sandbox as well as our catalyst role in the field of payments.In terms of climate change, this remains a key challenge for both society as a whole as well as for the delivery of our mandate – from monetary policy, to financial stability and the safety and soundness of firms, as well as ensuring the financial system is operating in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy. While the conversation on climate may have abated, the risks certainly have not. Nor have the necessary actions which we all must take. Indeed the challenge looks only to be growing.In the short run, we are already seeing the impacts from more frequent extreme weather events; and we are becoming increasingly aware of the challenges and risks from tipping points.7 Supervisors and firms have rightly become more focused on understanding the climate and environmental risks to firms, which can come in many different forms.8 And in the long run, while there are obviously significant risks from climate change, there are also opportunities from the transition to a net zero economy, and the financial sector has a big role to in play mobilising private finance as part of this solution. We often talk about avoiding pro-cyclical affects, and lending through the economic cycle – in good times and bad. In that regard, I would suggest it is in the long term interest of the sector, and us all, to look through the political cycle on climate change, to manage the risks and seize the opportunities as we look to meet this long term challenge facing the world.Responding to uncertainty and changeSo, we are all swimming in uncertainty, navigating complexity and riding the waves of rapid change – a theme that also came out in your recent survey of heads of compliance, and one which I am sure many will empathise with.9 But how do we respond? Well there are no easy answers, but let me share some perspectives.First, is to recognise that in such times, the roles of regulators, supervisors and compliance officers are all the more important (though also all the more challenging!).For amidst uncertainty and rapid change it is crucial we stick to, and deliver, the fundamentals, which for me start with effective risk management and governance, underpinned by a strong ethical culture and driven by a proactive approach to managing the risks and uncertainties facing your business, and your customers. This of course includes actively considering those customer’s interests in the changing and uncertain world.Compliance, including policies and risk management, but also its role in culture, education, and challenge, are a crucial part of these fundamentals and I would suggest the voice of compliance is increasingly important in this environment.And so it is important for you to recognise, and to continue to execute, the leadership role compliance officers and risk professionals play in creating the right culture in regulated entities. For compliance should not be seen as a burden, nor something that needs to be ticked off, but rather as a key an enabler of well-run businesses. The best firms recognise this, they champion it through tone from the top and deliver it through their governance and their culture.For us at the Central Bank the challenging external environment re-enforces the need for us to be forward looking, risk-based, outcomes focused and proportionate, all principles of our new supervisory approach.10 As well as the need to ensure we are maximising the best use of our collective resources, while adapting to the changing world around us. This is something we have been focused on for a number of years now, recognising that in the face of these fundamental changes we cannot stand still, and to continue to deliver on our mandate in a changing world, we must change too. I would also say the regulatory framework needs to be adaptive to this changing external environment – and indeed it has been, and let me briefly take two flagship examples, one domestic and one international, to illustrate this.As you all know this year we completed our review of the Consumer Protection Code, which is the cornerstone of the Central Bank’s consumer protection regulatory framework.11 The review focused on modernising the code to reflect the provision of financial services in a modern world. For consumers, it introduced a package of protections that better reflect how they are accessing financial services in a digitalising financial system. And for firms the integrated regulatory format, and clearer articulation of their Code obligations, will help them better deliver in the best interests of their consumers. The Code is something I know there is huge support for, and I know the implementation of the updated Code will be a focus of us all in the period ahead. This is important as we want to see the new Code contributing to building trust in the financial system and for consumers to have the confidence that it will work to deliver positive outcomes for them, important in a time of such uncertainty and change.Secondly, this year saw the Digital Operational Resilience Act take effect, and I know implementing DORA has been a significant piece of work for industry and regulators alike. But I couldn’t think of a more important regulatory initiative to meet the challenges of the times, given the key role digital operational resilience plays in modern financial services, and the key external dependencies the financial system has in terms of technology and outsourcing.As such the importance of this framework, the requirements it introduces and the information it provides cannot be overstated. While the submission of registers of information was a significant task – indeed the first of its kind, a complex exercise and there are learnings, it was also crucial one and will provide key information on the ICT third-party service providers to regulated entities, and those that are critical to the system.Lastly let me touch on another way we are responding to this changing external environment. In a rapidly changing and increasingly complex world communication and engagement are all the more crucial. Which is why we have put such an emphasis on being more open and engaged, improving the clarity and coherence of our communications with the sector, and deepening our relationships with our international peers.Engagement, openness and transparency is something I firmly believe in, for it delivers better policy, more effective supervision and better outcomes.While something we working on, I would say it cuts both ways. You also need to be engaging with us, asking for clarification if we are not clear, and raising issues in an open, transparent and timely manner. As a supervisor I always found open and respectful dialogue and exchange really helpful, clarifying potential misunderstandings and indeed deepening understanding on both sides. And so I  encourage my teams, and would encourage regulated firms (and indeed you in the room) to continue to engage in such dialogue.Regulatory cycle – simplification vs de-regulationLet me finish not on the economic cycle, but rather the regulatory one, given another feature of today’s uncertain and changing environment is a focus on regulation and growth.The first thing I would like to say is that regulation plays a key role in our economy and the financial system – supporting innovation, competition and productivity, while ensuring the system operates in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy, both in good times and bad.  The second is to say that in the face of the volatile and rapidly changing times facing our economy and financial sector a robust regulatory and supervisory framework is all the more important; and indeed that framework has stood up well in recent years.Having said that, given the economic challenges facing Europe, and the renewed focus on competiveness, it is understandable that there is also a renewed focus on the regulatory framework, and how it could be simplified, to reduce any unnecessary complexity and costs.While financial regulation is only one part of that focus, it is obviously a key focus for you and for us.Contrary to popular belief, regulators and supervisors want simplification. It is not in our interest to be wading through unnecessary complexity and processes, and we want to be more effective and achieve our outcomes in better and more efficient ways. As such we are keen to simplify both regulation and supervision, provided it is done in a way that does not compromise on our ability to deliver on our mandate.For this reason we at the Central Bank are serious about simplification, and are focused on it both domestically and internationally. We are engaged in many conversations on this at the ECB, across the three ESAs and in Brussels. And we are assessing our own domestic frameworks, and have asked for and received ideas from the sector. While serious about simplification, and while engaging with the sector, this does not mean that we will always agree on where, or how far, to simplify. Indeed as I have said before one person’s unnecessary burden can often be another’s important protection. Furthermore, we cannot simplify so much that we do not capture complex risks, indeed financial regulation is complex in part because financial services is complex.Nor does our seriousness about simplification mean that we have changed our minds on the important objectives we are trying to achieve. We have not. Rather we recognise, and are open to, the potential for more efficient and effective ways of achieving them.Equally, simplification cannot mean no new rules. In a world of rapid change regulation standing still risks regulation falling behind. And indeed history has shown that financial regulation not keeping pace with financial innovation, often leads to financial crises.12Lastly, as anyone involved in the regulatory process will know, simplification won’t be simple and it won’t be quick. Which is not to say that there are no quick wins, or that there aren’t simple things we can do to make a difference for you and for us. There are. And indeed we have already been delivering them, including more integrated engagement through our new supervisory approach, enhanced F&P and authorisation processes, consulting on amendments to the funds framework, and streamlining reporting requests to name but a few, and with more to come. At EU level we are also delivering, including through ECB Banking Supervision13 and at the ESAs.But as we have said before, and as the public would rightly expect of its independent Central Bank and Regulator, we will call out the risks should the legitimate aims of simplification slide into de-regulation.14 As that clearly would not be a good outcome for our economy or our citizens.You as compliance professionals have an important role to play here too. For the risks from the regulatory cycle are not just about a changing of rules, it can also relate to a culture and adherence to those rules, with weakening compliance or more of a tick box approach.So as I said before, the voice of compliance is an important one at this time, as is your continued role in embedding regulation and proactive risk management as part of the culture of a well-run firm.Conclusion Let me conclude.The external environment is a challenging one, characterised by significant uncertainty and volatility and a period of potentially rapid structural change.The sector has been weathering this change well, thanks to the resilience built over the last decade as well as improvements in Governance, compliance, risk management and culture.Given the rapid change underway and ahead, in the nature, shape and digitalisation of the global economy and financial system, it is important we remain vigilant, maintain resilience, and ensure we are agile and adapting to the changing nature of financial services, the opportunities it provides and the changing nature of resilience it implies. And lastly, there is an onus on policymakers, regulators and industry alike to heed our history, and to remember the lessons of the past.Thank you[1] Many thanks to Cian O’Laoide for his help preparing these remarks.[2] See McMunn “Shocks and shifts – regulation and supervision in a changing world” April 2025.[3] See Central Bank of Ireland Regulatory & Supervisory Outlook 2025.[4] See Compliance Institute Survey September 2025.[5] See McMunn Central Banks and innovation – delivering our mandate in a digitalising world May 2025.[6] See Madouros Catching and keeping up - payments innovation in Ireland March 2025.[7] For example se Carbon Brief Nine “tipping points” where a changing climate could push parts of the Earth system into abrupt or irreversible change.[8] For example, almost 75% of euro area banks corporate loans to are extended to companies highly dependent on one ecosystem service.  ECB Occasional Paper: Living in a world of disappearing nature: physical risk and the implications for financial stability.[9] See Compliance Institute Survey September 2025.[10] See Central Bank of Ireland: Our Approach to Supervision February 2025.[11] See Makhlouf Consumer Protection Code Review Discussion Paper.[12] See also Barr: Booms and Busts and the Regulatory Cycle July 2025.[13] See for example Donnery As simple as possible, but not simpler September 2025.[14] See also: Dear CEO Letter – Key Regulation and Supervision Priorities 2025 February 2025.

Thank you for the invitation to join you this afternoon. My remarks today will discuss the economic outlook in a period of global change and our regulatory approach in the changing environment.But before I talk about that, I’d like to touch briefly on the importance of the relationship between Ireland and the United Kingdom. In a time when fragmentation and global uncertainty are straining international relationships, the economic and social bond between the two nations is a testament to a deep and shared resilience. Everyone in this room knows the links across these islands are about much more than a market. It is a deep-rooted relationship, sector to sector, business to business, families and friendships intertwined. From the Central Bank of Ireland’s perspective, the relationship is not an abstract concept but something that’s very real. Ireland has a globally interconnected financial ecosystem that has a strong connection with its counterpart in the UK. As many of you in the financial industry know, we have an excellent relationship with our colleagues at the Bank of England, PRA and FCA, and we will continue to share information and knowledge, coordinate on supervisory standards, and assist each other in the delivery of our mandates. This strong working relationship ensures that capital flows remain secure, payment systems are resilient and that the integrity of our financial markets are maintained, not least through periods of significant change such as we are experiencing today. A changing external environmentThe global economy has been fragmenting along geopolitical lines for nearly a decade, but this trend has accelerated, marking a swift transition with implications across the short, medium, and long term, alongside the other significant, and more familiar, economic transitions of ageing societies, a changing climate and an increasingly digitalised world. Recognising and understanding these transitions is fundamental if we are to shape policies that build economic resilience, enabling households, businesses, and communities to navigate challenges and seize opportunities. International trade in goods has entered a new and profoundly unfamiliar period. Global trade is being reshaped as countries and businesses respond to tariffs directed at them.For Ireland, as an open and very well-connected economy, an environment of trade barriers coupled with policy unpredictability is unwelcome. The new agreement between the EU and the US, although yet to be fully implemented, has provided some welcome stability. In the first half of this year, the Irish economy demonstrated resilience, with robust consumption and investment, but headwinds persist. Continued expected growth in real disposable incomes, amid a stable labour market, labour force participation is high and unemployment low, supports the forecast for continued growth in consumer spending. Overall, our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.1 The question is how best to sustain what has been a positive trajectory over the last few years into the medium-to-long term. Analysis indicates an economy one per cent smaller relative to a tariff-free scenario, driven by lower investment and a shift in exports to non-US markets.2 To maintain the economic success of recent years in the face of current and more medium-term challenges, Ireland will have to focus in particular on addressing its infrastructure gaps.  Efficient infrastructure delivery, supported by enabling processes, innovative approaches and scaled investments, can enhance productivity, reduce costs, and maximise economic benefits.Regulating in a changing environmentTo state the obvious, the financial system has an important role to play here. The sector has been undergoing its own rapid change over recent years, not least as a result of technological innovation. Increasingly, we are seeing the importance of operational and cyber resilience to the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence and its use. This provides many opportunities, although if not adequately managed it can also pose many risks.When I think of our response to these changes, three things come to mind: cooperation in the face of fragmentation; adapting with the times; and always sticking to the fundamentals.First, whether it’s climate or cyber or innovation, it is clear that what we are increasingly dealing with are global changes and challenges. They are common to us all, they cannot be confined to borders, and require global cooperation if they are to be addressed effectively.I know that both Ireland and the UK are committed to international cooperation and multilateralism. For one thing, I see it reflected in the open, engaged and internationally active nature of our central banks and regulators. We and our counterparts in the UK both know that having an international financial centre entails international responsibilities, including a commitment to effective regulation, actively engaging with the international rule-setting bodies as well as supervising institutions on behalf of, and in cooperation with, other jurisdictions. These responsibilities also come with international scrutiny, be it from organisations such as the IMF, or simply other peer regulators who want assurance that their citizens are being protected when served by Irish-based firms.We embrace this responsibility. And, along with our core domestic mandate, it is why we place such importance on the proper and effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector, something that I know is also at the heart of our UK colleagues’ approach.Second in the face of rapid technological change financial regulation needs to keep up with financial innovation. And in many ways the UK has led the way in terms of responding to the innovation in financial services. We have been adapting too, becoming more future focused, and better anticipating and responding to the changes taking place in our financial system.This includes establishing an Innovation Sandbox Programme, and I expect that some of you will have engaged with both the programme and our Innovation Hub as part of your operations in Ireland. We support innovation in the financial sector and recognise the benefits it can bring. Third, navigating change is complex and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise. And, while it is important to be adaptable, in times of rapid change central banks and regulators need to remain anchored to the fundamentals and remember that no matter how novel or innovative something is, the importance of good governance, good risk management and delivering in the interests of consumers, investors and the wider economy doesn’t change.In my view regulation plays a vital role in ensuring the effective functioning of our financial system. It enables innovation, competition, and cross border activity, while ensuring the system operates in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy, both in good times and bad. Our regulatory approach at the Central Bank of Ireland is underpinned by six principles. Regulation must be forward looking, connected, proportionate, predictable, transparent and agile. These principles are increasingly relevant to meet the challenges of today as well as the opportunities and risks that are ahead of us.ConclusionAnd the opportunities are clear, as Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta set out last year, reports written for the EU, but which should be of wider interest. We need to recognise that the world we have been familiar with has changed and that,  coupled with the ongoing march of demography, digitalisation, and a warming climate, more change is ahead. I suggest that the stage is now set for us to seek new partners, build new relationships, adopt new frameworks and create new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit.At the Central Bank of Ireland, we are guided by the objective set out in our founding legislation that our “constant and predominant aim shall be the welfare of the people as a whole.”  We will remain focused on delivering the stability, resilience, and protections that consumers and the wider economy need and the public expects. Our focus will be neither to regulate for growth nor regulate for risk but to regulate for the orderly and proper functioning of financial markets so that they deliver positive outcomes for the economy and for our citizens. I wish you all well, both for the remainder of this conference and for your continued work bringing together people and businesses in our two countries.[1] Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2025[2] See On the fault line? The Irish economy in a time of geoeconomic fragmentation - Central Bank of Ireland 2025

Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Colm Kincaid spoke today (Thursday) at the Financial Services Ireland Chief Executive Roundtable.

Good morning, and thank you to Financial Services Ireland for the invitation to speak to you today. Today’s Roundtable provides an opportunity to discuss the issues that go to the heart of building a financial system that serves people and the wider economy, and responds effectively to the needs of those who depend on that system.

IntroductionMy thanks to Insurance Ireland for the invitation to attend the European Insurance Forum 2025.  I am delighted to have the opportunity to speak here today, at an event which brings together so many insurance leaders and experts.The theme of the Forum, "Resilience and Revitalisation: Shaping the Future of Insurance”, is timely as it speaks to the insurance industry’s focus on the future. For regulators too this is important as we look to better understand, anticipate and adapt in the context of the far reaching changes taking place within the economy, society and financial system globally.This is also timely in the context of the Government’s recently published Action Plan for Insurance Reform 2025-2029, which we welcome and support. In my remarks today, I would like to touch on how the Central Bank of Ireland’s approach to the regulation and supervision of the insurance sector is evolving and to reflect on some key areas of focus as we look to the future, namely:Resilience in uncertain times;Accountability, Trust and Consumer Focus; andResponsible and Ethical Innovation.  But before doing so, I think it is worth reflecting on the importance of a well-functioning and resilient insurance sector.  Supporting people, businesses and the wider economyInsurance plays a critical role in supporting businesses and individuals in navigating and mitigating risks in an uncertain and rapidly changing world. Non-life insurance provides motor, property and liability protection to communities, increasing resilience and recovery in the wake of adverse events, whilst various speciality lines of business are a key enabler of international trade and investment.Life assurance provides financial protection and stability for families and dependents, as well as providing a key mechanism for savings and investment.  Our mandate in the Central Bank of Ireland, as you will know, is that we work to ensure that the financial system operates in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy. The insurance sector is no different, and so key to us, as a regulator, is ensuring that it functions in such a way as to provide this support.  Ultimately, people and businesses should be able to access products which are suitable for their needs: be clear on what is covered, what is not, and to what extent; and be able to rely on that cover being in place, and importantly paying out, should certain risks crystallise or life events happen.    Looking to the futureIreland is home to the fourth largest insurance industry in the EU, with a significant international component.   In 2024, premiums written by Irish firms equated to €109bn, of which more than 70% related to risks outside of Ireland, with exposures spread across more than 70 countries. This is not to forget the 2,400-plus retail intermediaries operating in Ireland, despite ongoing consolidation in this market.There are new opportunities and challenges emerging for the insurance sector with which both regulators and the insurance industry must contend. The financial system today operates against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, which threaten economic growth and market stability.Digitalisation of the economy, including the growth of AI, presents both opportunities and challenges, bringing continued cyber resilience into sharp focus.Growing climate risks and ageing populations are presenting many challenges in the long and short term – and have the potential to significantly widen insurance "protection gaps".Future focused - our role and supervisory frameworkIn the context of these fundamental shifts in the environment, the Central Bank’s strategy is focused on four key safeguarding outcomes: Consumer and investor protection;Safety and soundness;Financial stability; and Integrity of the financial system. We are implementing a new supervisory approach, building on the strong foundations of our long standing risk-based and outcomes-focused approach to supervision.  In designing our new approach, we reflected on EU and global best practice while recognising also the particular strategic advantage the Central Bank has from having all elements of the central banking and financial regulation mandates in one organisation. Our new approach does not change the safeguarding outcomes we are pursuing.  However, it recognises the changing nature of the financial system, which increasingly transcends traditional regulatory distinctions such as “prudential”, “conduct”, and “anti-money laundering”, and delivers a more integrated approach to supervision, with multi-disciplinary teams working together to deliver our supervisory priorities in a more effective and efficient way.  The insurance sector will be supervised in an integrated, holistic way, in accordance with a multi-year supervisory strategy.  In addition, insurance firms that could most significantly impact on the achievement of our safeguarding outcomes will be supervised at an individual firm level.Under this new approach firms should hear one voice from the Central Bank, with more coordinated, consistent messaging and more streamlined demands across the full span of our regulatory and supervisory mandate.Importantly, under the new approach, we will: Continue to deliver an open and transparent engagement approach, to communicate clearly our priorities and areas of focus, and to listen to questions and concerns that may arise;  Remain risk-based and outcomes-focused and continue to take a targeted and proportionate approach to our supervision and to the use of our supervisory powers; and    Continue our engagement with key stakeholders, including through our participation at the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS), to work towards consistent application of regulatory standards and coordinated supervisory efforts.  SimplificationEurope is rightly looking to ensure its economy is productive and competitive into the future. Productive and resilient business sectors are central to that objective. To help deliver that, there is an increasing focus on the simplification of regulation, including financial regulation. It is important to remember that regulation plays a key role in the economy and financial system – enabling innovation, competition and cross border activity, while ensuring the financial system operates in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy, both in good times and bad. Given its importance, regulation should always be forward-looking, proportionate, predictable, and, to the greatest extent possible, harmonised. Supervision, in turn, should be risk based and outcomes-focused.   And in our view, regulators and supervisors should always be open to reviewing and considering existing frameworks, to see if we can deliver the same outcomes in different, and indeed “simpler”, ways that reduce the administrative burden on firms. Simplification done well is in line with these principles, which is why we are proactively engaging with the simplification agenda, at home and in Europe. Domestically, we have already identified and indeed implemented areas where we could simplify and reduce the burden and we will continue to do so.  By way of example, we have streamlined authorisation and change of business requirements and removed the requirement for an external audit of captive insurer's regulatory returns and public disclosures. At European level, the Solvency II review will carve out a proportionality regime for small and non-complex undertakings. In parallel, EIOPA is working to achieve simplification and burden reduction through a focus on harmonisation and a rationalisation of reporting requirements and guidance to firms and supervisory authorities.There is of course a careful and critical balance to be struck, and this requires industry to play its part too. Simpler standards cannot mean lower standards, and simpler standards will still need to deliver their intended outcomes.  We will all have a role in making sure that we get simplification right and it is so important that we do.  The outcomes of financial stability and consumer protection are now more important than ever as we will have no growth and no adoption of innovation, if the financial sector is not stable and consumers don’t have trust in it.Resilience in uncertain timesReturning to the three areas of shared focus I set out at the beginning of my remarks, let me take each in turn.In recent years the insurance sector has shown itself to be resilient in weathering significant inflation and interest rate shocks as well as volatile financial markets.  This has been welcome but I think we will all agree that there is no room for complacency.  Rising geopolitical tensions and economic divisions pose significant challenges for insurers, which serve to underscore the continued importance of prudent risk management and resilience across the financial system, and at an individual firm level, the maintenance of sufficient financial resources to withstand plausible but severe stresses. Close monitoring of the impact of changes in financial markets, the macro environment, the changing needs of your consumers, and over the longer term, climate, will need to remain at the forefront for industry and regulators both now and into the future.  Accountability, trust and consumer focus Turning to trust, this forms the foundation of the relationship between insurers and their customers, and so is something that it is critical to maintain. Consumers need to trust that insurers are providing value for money, ongoing service and support, and that they will honour the commitments they have made where insured risks crystallise.We believe that the development of consumer focused cultures, robust governance and well defined accountabilities are the fundamental building blocks of organisations that are trustworthy. These were key design principles underpinning the Central Bank’s Individual Accountability Framework.    We see the importance of consumer trust clearly resonating and reflected in Insurance Ireland’s strategy to “support building consumer trust in insurance” and this is very welcome.   This will involve the insurance sector playing an active role in relation to the measures needed to address emerging protection gaps. It will also require insurance firms to take steps to build trust with consumers through transparency, value for money, suitability of products, and high quality customer support and service.  Through our supervision, we will continue to examine how firms are delivering on their responsibilities to their customers and the continued commitment to building consumer trust in the insurance sector.  Responsible and ethical innovationLastly let me speak of innovation, something that is happening at pace in the financial sector, presenting both opportunities and risks.In recent years, innovation has brought new entrants, new products and new ways of serving customers and the economy. This has clear benefits for consumers, businesses and society and is an essential component of a competitive economy and a well-functioning financial system.  The digital transition, done right, has immense potential for delivering better outcomes for consumers, investors, and the wider economy.  It is important that you are ready to capitalise on that potential, and are proactively adapting your business models, strategies and systems to do so.But it is also important that regulators and industry account for both the opportunities and risks that innovation brings.  If the insurance sector is to continue to be resilient and to maintain trust, then innovation needs to be done in a way that is both responsible and ethical.The insurance industry has pioneered the use of data and statistics to make informed decisions on risk. The management of new data and technologies, particularly involving use of generative Artificial Intelligence, will require firms to consider carefully their ethical and responsible use, including the governance and controls required to oversee these technologies effectively. And we, as regulators, will be focused on developing a deeper understanding of use of Artificial Intelligence systems in the insurance sector and assessing whether firms have the necessary governance and risk management measures in place to harness innovation responsibly and well.    Closing remarksIt is important to acknowledge as we look forward that insurance firms and regulators have a shared goal in securing a well-functioning and resilient insurance sector into the future.Given the rapid change underway and ahead, in the nature, shape and digitalisation of the global economy and financial system, it is important we remain vigilant, maintain resilience, and ensure we are agile and adapting to the changing nature of financial services, the opportunities it provides and the changing nature of resilience it implies.I am reminded of a quote attributed to the French writer Albert Camus, who observed that “real generosity towards the future lies in giving all to the present”.This is a sentiment which I expect will resonate with us all and highlights the importance of our collective efforts and work today in securing a future where the insurance sector continues to support the needs of people, businesses and the wider economy.  My thanks to Brian Balmforth, Maura Killoran, Cian O’Laoide and James O’Sullivan for their help in preparing these remarks.

A Letter to Students of Economics – 2025

Chair and committee members, thank you for the opportunity to address you today. Martin O’Brien, Head of Irish Economic Analysis, joins me. In my opening statement, I will outline how the changing external environment is reshaping Ireland’s economic outlook, and how policy can respond by mitigating short‑term risks and supporting longer‑term prosperity.The Economic Outlook in a Period of Global ChangeDriven by the recent shift in US trade policy, Ireland faces a significant challenge from the current environment of heightened global trade uncertainty.The recently implemented Transatlantic agreement, which includes a 15 per cent tariff on EU goods entering the US, provides a measure of stability, although full implementation remains outstanding. Ireland’s economy presents varied risks across different sectors. A key factor is the structure of Irish multinational enterprises (MNEs): roughly half serve the domestic market and are less directly exposed to trade tensions, while the other half, concentrated in export-oriented sectors like pharmaceuticals and ICT, rely heavily on global value chains. These export-focused MNEs, where US-owned firms account for most employment and investment, are particularly vulnerable to trade tariffs and US policy changes. However, Ireland’s MNE export base is expected to remain relatively resilient, thanks to its role as a pharmaceutical export platform for both the EU and US1, the specialised nature of its products, and potentially the ability of firms to absorb some tariff costs through their relatively higher profit margins.Indigenous firms, by contrast, primarily focus on the EU and UK markets. Those exporting to the US tend to be larger, more productive and more geographically diversified, increasing their ability to adapt to the tariff shock. They employ over 120,000 workers, with close to 10,000 tied to US export activity2.This sectoral breakdown informs the current economic outlook. The first half of the year demonstrated resilience, with robust consumption and investment, but headwinds persist. Current projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years3. Medium-to-long term scenario analysis indicates an economy one per cent smaller relative to a tariff-free scenario. Lower investment is the main driver, with diverted exports to markets outside the US, partially offsetting the direct impact of the tariffs4. We also anticipate a moderate structural shift, with reduced manufacturing activity and increased service sector growth as resources are reallocated in response to these global shocks5.Managing Short-run RisksThe immediate fiscal risk lies in corporation tax receipts, which increased four-fold since 2015. A decade ago, these receipts would have covered three-quarters of government education spending. Last year, they equalled the combined government spending on education, housing, transport, and justice6.While the central expectation is for continued growth in corporation tax7, declining export profits for multinational enterprises may still lead to a reduction in receipts. A particularly concerning aspect is that a large share of this revenue, often referred to as ‘excess’, is not dependent on domestic economic performance, making it susceptible to sudden reduction from broader US policy changes or corporate-structure decisions by a small number of multinational companies.The Summer Economic Statement clearly identifies excess corporation tax as a key fiscal vulnerability, warning that a loss of those receipts would turn the current headline surplus into a multi-billion-euro deficit. Directing excess corporation tax receipts into the Future Ireland Fund is a welcome step towards strengthening public finances. The fund will help address long-term challenges, particularly those related to an aging population and associated increased spending. However, even with this fund, the government will need to secure additional revenue to keep the public finances on a sustainable path.To safeguard Ireland’s public finances, there are two key priorities. First, broaden the tax base as recommended by the Commission on Taxation and Welfare Report8. There are many choices available to government in achieving this resilience-building step, including through reforming tax reliefs, property taxes, consumption taxes, and social-insurance contributions. Second, implement a credible fiscal anchor that keeps government expenditure growth on a sustainable path. This would allow for effective counter-cyclical fiscal policy, for example, by linking net-spending growth (expenditure growth adjusted for tax changes) to the economy’s potential growth rate and a 2 per cent inflation target. This would suggest annual overall net-spending growth of around 4-5 per cent. The Summer Economic Statement proposes an additional €3 billion in spending for this year compared to Budget 2025, implying annual net spending growth exceeding 8 per cent this year. Our analysis of planned spending indicates a significant increase in Ireland's underlying budget deficit, projected to rise from €6.6 billion to €13.9 billion (3.7 per cent of national income9) by 2027. Maintaining this expansionary fiscal policy during a period of economic growth limits our flexibility to respond with budgetary support during a future economic downturn.Higher tariffs and weaker external demand will undoubtedly present challenges for some exposed firms. However, reflecting the vulnerability of corporation tax revenue and the need to contain spending growth, untargeted and widespread fiscal support is neither necessary nor appropriate for responding to the current challenges. Instead, policy should prioritise leveraging existing State agencies to help indigenous exporters that are exposed to the US develop new networks and markets. The EU, representing our extended home market, holds considerable untapped potential, which we should seek to realise through minimising trade frictions.Supporting long-term prosperityLooking to the medium term, maintaining Ireland's attractiveness for foreign investment remains essential. Key infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport and housing are significant constraints on Ireland's medium-term sustainable growth. Closing these gaps is crucial to keep Ireland not only attractive for foreign direct investment, but also to curb cost of living pressures and unlock the productivity needed for a more diversified export base.Guided by a credible fiscal anchor, capital spending should be prioritised over current spending increases or tax cuts. To maximise the return on capital spending, we must cultivate a thriving local business sector. This includes encouraging entrepreneurship and supporting skills development. A more diverse funding ecosystem, offering tailored financing and equity, will be crucial for supporting high-potential indigenous firms.Timely and effective implementation of the recently published Action Plan on Competitiveness and Productivity will contribute to achieving these goals and ensuring Ireland's future competitiveness10.Beyond domestic measures, strengthening the EU Single Market through more integrated payments landscape and progress towards a Savings and Investment Union, which offers the twin benefits of generating increasing returns for household savings and creating a robust investor base for businesses across the EU.Ultimately, Ireland’s economic resilience hinges on our ability to adapt to a changing global landscape and to leverage the opportunities presented by deeper European integration. While addressing immediate vulnerabilities, it is crucial to avoid broad, short-term fiscal support and instead prioritise investment and delivery of critical infrastructure and a robust fiscal framework - all of which will be essential for sustaining growth and enhancing our economic competitiveness.Thank you for your attention; we welcome your questions. [1] Source CSO External Trade Statistics. Of the €98.9bn pharmaceutical exports in 2024, 44.5 and 43.4 per cent were exported to the US and EU respectively. [2] The number of directly exposed workers are calculated on a trade-weighted basis. [3] Economic outlook refers to Modified Domestic Demand. For further detail, see Quarterly Bulletin, September 2025.[4] CBI model estimates from four-country DSGE model building on Jacquinot et al (2022). The scenario assumes that the US imposes a 15% tariff on all goods from Europe (including Ireland), with no exceptions. The EU (including Ireland) does not retaliate. The US also imposes tariffs on China (35 per cent) and the rest of the world whereby China retaliates and the rest of the world does not. The increase in tariffs is assumed permanent. [5] See The Sectoral Impacts of Tariffs and Trade Fragmentation in the Irish Economy.[6] Net Corporation Tax Receipts of €6.87‘bn and €28.1’bn in 2015 and 2024 respectively. Education spend in 2014 was €9.06’bn. In 2024, government spending on Education (€11.9’bn), Housing (€8’bn), Transport (€3.6’bn) and Justice (€3.8’bn).[7] Cronin (2025) outlines how OECD reforms will increase Irish corporate tax revenues.[8] See Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare.[9] National income measure as Modified Gross National Income (GNI*). The underlying budget surplus/deficit is the overall budget position adjusted for excess corporation tax receipts. [10] See Action Plan on Competitiveness and Productivity.

The Central Bank of Ireland today (Tuesday 23 September) hosted the “2025 Payments Seminar: Charting a Future Payments Path for Ireland”.Seminar attendees, from across the public and private sectors, explored how best to achieve the outcomes of the National Payments Strategy and the Eurosystem’s Retail Payment Strategy, across the diverse banking, payments, and fintech sectors in Ireland. The seminar covered the future evolution of retail and wholesale payments, and the importance of continued public-private engagement in moving towards a more efficient, resilient, and integrated payments ecosystem. Speaking at the event, Deputy Governor Vasileios Madouros said: “Payments are the lifeblood of the economy, and innovation in payments – done well and safely – can unlock broader economic benefits. Amid a rapid pace of innovation in the payments landscape, the Central Bank also needs to adapt – we cannot stand still. Our ultimate aim is to ensure that the benefits of innovation are realised and that the risks are managed effectively, maintaining confidence in money and payments throughout this ongoing transition. This is why we chose the theme of our second Innovation Sandbox Programme to be “Innovation in Payments”.  The Sandbox provides an opportunity to further expand engagement between the Central Bank and the private sector in the area of payments. It aims to foster innovative solutions that deliver safer, faster and more inclusive payments for households and businesses, while giving the Central Bank early insight into emerging risks and supervisory questions. Today, we are opening our call for applications to the Sandbox. We welcome applicants at every stage of their development, from start-ups to incumbents, and all points between. We are also interested in receiving applications from partnerships. If you are a firm or a partnership developing a product or service that uses innovative technology to deliver better payments outcomes for consumers of financial services, we invite you to consider making an application.”ENDSNotes to the EditorFurther information on the Sandbox is available on our website, along with the selection criteria and application form. The Innovation Sandbox programme will commence in January 2026 and will take place over six months to allow the innovation develop.

Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf spoke in Paris this morning at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) about how demographics, migration and technology will reshape Europe’s workforce. The speech was part of the OECD seminar series ‘The Lectures of the Governor’. Governor Makhlouf said in the face of unprecedented shocks in recent years, the Euro area labour market has held up exceptionally well. However, looking ahead some labour market cooling is expected. While this reflects a cooling of labour demand, Governor Makhlouf said the employment growth slowdown also reflects demographic factors that were initially rather slow-moving, but are now beginning to bite.  Makhlouf said: “Between 2024 and 2027 the euro area working age population is projected to fall by 0.7% (or 1.5 million workers between the ages of 15 and 64).“The longer-term impact is stark: the ‘old-age dependency ratio’ in the euro area, that is, the population aged 65 and over as a proportion of the population aged 15-64, is set to increase sharply from 33.7 in 2022 to 51.2 in 2050.  “An older population with lower consumption and higher savings could place downward pressure on aggregate demand, limiting price growth in certain sectors. This aligns with the “secular stagnation” hypothesis, which has argued that ageing societies are more prone to disinflationary forces. At the same time, a shrinking working-age population will tighten labour markets in the absence of increases in labour force participation rates. This puts upward pressure on wages that feed into services inflation. Moreover, as older cohorts consume more health care and age-related services; relative price increases in those areas may become more entrenched. The balance of these effects is hard to predict, but one potential outcome is higher structural inflation in labour-intensive, non-tradable sectors (i.e. services), even as weak aggregate demand keeps headline inflation subdued. This creates an environment in which inflation dynamics are increasingly segmented, complicating the job of central banks that aim to stabilise prices economy-wide.” Governor Makhlouf said that with shrinking populations, increasing labour force participation is a necessary part of the solution. “We also need to look beyond the traditional definition of working age population as 15-60/64 years of age and boost participation in the post-60/65 population. In a world of longer lifespans and health spans, sustaining living standards will need people to work beyond what is currently considered ‘typical’ retirement age,” Makhlouf added. Governor Makhlouf said that an ageing population, declining fertility and shrinking work forces will drag on employment growth and therefore economic growth in the coming decades, with migration only offering a partial – albeit important – solution to the challenge.  He said: “The point here is not so much to get bogged down in population or migration projection scenarios – which, as I said, are highly uncertain, but rather to highlight the extent to which migration can help mitigate the demographic and growth drag from ageing populations and falling fertility rates. This could allow time for governments to develop and implement other policies, mainly around labour force participation and productivity.” On the drivers of productivity growth in Europe, Governor Makhlouf said: “On the policy front, implementing the proposals in the Draghi and Letta reports, mainly around completing the Savings and Investment Union and removing barriers that restrict trade in goods and services in the EU single market, must be a priority. You will not be surprised to hear that this was a topic of conversation at last week’s meeting of EU Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.” Governor Makhlouf said that while we are still in the early take-up phase of AI technology, adoption of the technology is historically fast.  He said: “What we have seen so far in terms of the use of AI, including in my own organisation, suggests that it has the potential to disrupt existing employment patterns, both as a substitute for existing labour through the automation of certain tasks and as a complement to existing skills.  Together, this will create new opportunities for workforce growth and productivity gains. We need to prepare now for the changes that are coming. This means, among other things, more flexible labour markets that allow for worker mobility within and between firms, as well as across sectors and occupations. It also means providing training opportunities for workers, both younger and older, to drive upskilling and support transitions to new roles that may not even exist yet.” Concluding his remarks, Governor Makhlouf said: “To sum up, what the data is telling us is that our societies are facing a series of important choices if we want to sustain or improve our future living standards (or, perhaps more accurately, for some of us at least, the living standards of our children and grandchildren).“Our choices are likely to involve improvements in our productivity, an increase in labour market participation and inward migration. In my view a combination of these, they are not mutually exclusive, offer us the most effective route to building the best opportunities for our grandchildren.” ENDSRead Governor Gabriel Makhlouf’s speech in full. Further informationMartin Grant: martin.grant@centralbank.ie / 086 078 7868 Media Relations: media@centralbank.ie