Bloomberg reported on commodity trading firms reaping gains. If these firms are not doing so at times like this they are not doing thier jobs. Summary:Major commodity traders post strongest profits since Ukraine war boom Dislocations in physical oil markets drive exceptional margins Reports of $20–$30 per barrel trading profits highlight extreme conditions Near-closure of Hormuz triggers scramble for immediate supply Volatility remains elevated, with risks from geopolitics and price swingsThe world’s largest commodity trading houses are generating substantial profits as the Iran war reshapes global energy markets, with extreme volatility and supply disruptions creating conditions that favour experienced physical traders.Early indications suggest that 2026 could become one of the most profitable periods for the sector since the surge seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with several leading firms already reporting standout performance. Privately held trading giants, including Vitol, Trafigura, Gunvor, and Mercuria, are understood to be benefiting from sharp dislocations across oil and broader commodity markets.Vitol is said to have generated around $2 billion in profit in the first quarter alone, while Trafigura has posted two of its strongest quarters on record, supported by both energy and metals trading. Gunvor has indicated that its first-quarter earnings exceeded those of the entire previous year, and Mercuria expects returns near the top end of its historical range, implying multi-billion-dollar profits.The scale of profitability reflects highly unusual market conditions. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted flows of crude and refined products, sparking a global scramble for readily available supply. This has pushed spot cargoes to significant premiums, with physical oil trades reportedly generating margins of $20 to $30 per barrel—levels far above the typical cents-per-barrel returns seen in normal market environments.Price spikes across the complex have underscored the extent of the disruption. Benchmarks for Middle Eastern crude surged sharply, while refined products such as jet fuel traded at extreme levels as buyers competed to secure supply. In this environment, trading houses with strong logistics networks, storage capacity and market access have been able to capture value by arbitraging regional imbalances and managing flows.Importantly, this kind of environment is precisely where commodity traders are expected to perform. Periods of stress, fragmentation and volatility are when trading expertise, risk management and infrastructure deliver outsized returns. Failure to capitalise in such conditions would raise questions about execution, given that these firms are built to navigate precisely this type of market dislocation.That said, the backdrop is not without challenges. Some firms have faced losses in derivatives positions as prices moved sharply, and disruptions to Middle Eastern supply have triggered contractual complications, including force majeure declarations. The early phase of the conflict required rapid operational adjustments as companies worked to reroute flows and secure cargoes.Looking ahead, executives caution that uncertainty remains high. Oil prices continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments, including statements from US and Iranian officials, while broader macro factors also contribute to volatility. Additional gains have been supported by weather-driven demand and strength in metals markets, further boosting overall trading performance.Even so, the overarching narrative is clear: the Iran war has created a high-volatility, supply-constrained environment that is proving highly profitable for the world’s leading commodity traders. ---Strong profitability among commodity traders is a signal of extreme market dislocation rather than stability. Elevated physical premiums and arbitrage opportunities point to tight supply conditions, supporting oil prices and reinforcing inflation risks. As long as volatility and supply fragmentation persist, traders will continue to extract value, but markets remain vulnerable to sharp reversals if geopolitical conditions shift. --- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump has not set a timeline for the extension of the ceasefire - reportIran President: Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to talksTrump touts that Iranian women he asked to be released won't be executedIran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: Complete ceasefire only makes sense without blockadeUS EIA weekly crude oil inventories +1925K vs -1200K expectedApril eurozone flash consumer confidence -20.6 vs -16.3 priorTrump says talks with Iran "possible" on Friday - reportGermany cuts GDP forecast in half on the Iran war.Markets:S&P 500 up 1.1%Nasdaq up 1.6%WTI crude oil up $2.88 to $92.53US 10-year yields flat at 4.30%Gold up $28 to $4740NZD leads, CHF lagsThe stock market continued to rise on Wednesday, led by some of the most-heavily shorted stocks. That's a bit of a red flag but they weren't the only gainers as tech optimism was leading the charge.That came despite a renewed rise in oil prices as there is confusion over how long the latest ceasefire might last. The market appears to be confident that a deal will eventually materialize with some talk about Friday talks or something on the weekend. Trump said he would allow some time for Iran's negotiators to present a deal and several reports said that meant 3-5 days but the White House later claimed that there wasn't a deadline (not that they've mattered before).The euro softened in line with the move higher in oil and softer German growth numbers (though the later wasn't a surprise). Economic data was limited and so was Iran news so that limited volatility. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This from yesterday about US forces taking Itanian tankers in Asia:Maritime crackdown widens against Iran-linked shipping. Oil tanker seized in Indian OceanReuters have further now, in brief:Summary:US forces intercept and redirect multiple Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters At least 29 vessels ordered to turn back under expanding maritime blockade Strait of Hormuz traffic remains near standstill amid ongoing disruptions Iran escalates by seizing two cargo ships attempting to exit the Gulf Enforcement increasingly shifting to open waters to reduce operational riskThe United States has stepped up enforcement of its maritime blockade on Iran by intercepting and redirecting several Iranian-flagged oil tankers in Asian waters, signalling a broader geographic reach beyond the Strait of Hormuz and intensifying pressure on global energy supply chains.According to shipping and security sources, US forces have diverted at least three Iranian tankers operating near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. These actions form part of a wider effort to restrict Iran’s ability to export crude, with US authorities confirming that a total of 29 vessels have been ordered to turn back or return to port since the blockade began.The operation comes against the backdrop of continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply typically flows. Traffic through the waterway remains close to a standstill, amplifying concerns about prolonged supply tightness and the risk of a sustained global energy shock.Specific vessels targeted include the supertanker Dorena, reportedly carrying around 2 million barrels of crude and now under US naval escort in the Indian Ocean after attempting to breach the blockade. Another large tanker, Deep Sea, was partially loaded and last tracked off Malaysia, while the smaller Sevin was also intercepted. Additional reports suggest the tanker Derya may have been stopped after failing to discharge its cargo in India before the expiry of a US waiver on Iranian oil purchases.The US is also believed to be deliberately conducting interceptions away from the Strait of Hormuz, focusing instead on open waters to reduce operational risks such as potential mine threats in the confined chokepoint.Meanwhile, Iran has responded by escalating its own maritime actions. Tehran confirmed it seized two cargo ships attempting to exit the Gulf after firing on multiple vessels, marking its first such detentions since the conflict began. These developments highlight a growing tit-for-tat dynamic at sea, even as a fragile ceasefire remains in place with little visible progress toward renewed negotiations.Taken together, the expansion of US interdictions and Iran’s retaliatory moves point to a deepening standoff that continues to disrupt energy flows and elevate geopolitical risk across key shipping lanes in Asia and the Middle East.---The widening scope of US enforcement beyond Hormuz is a key escalation, reinforcing the risk of sustained supply disruption rather than a short-lived shock. Oil markets are likely to remain supported as physical flows stay constrained, while shipping, insurance costs, and volatility premiums remain elevated. The shift to open-water interdictions also signals a longer-duration strategy, reducing the likelihood of a quick normalization in flows. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is supported by strong institutional demand, with a Coinbase survey showing 75% see it undervalued (up from 71% in December). ETF inflows hit $1.5bn in a week while ~$200m in shorts were liquidated, reinforcing a demand-driven rally.Summary:Coinbase survey shows strong institutional conviction Bitcoin is undervalued ~$200m in short liquidations highlights squeeze dynamics Spot Bitcoin ETFs pull in ~$1.5bn over the past week Six straight days of ETF inflows underpin recent price strength Flows and positioning suggest demand-led rally rather than purely speculativeBitcoin is seeing renewed support from institutional investors and sustained capital inflows, with positioning data pointing to a market increasingly driven by structural demand rather than short-term speculation.A recent survey from Coinbase indicates that roughly three-quarters of institutional investors believe Bitcoin is currently undervalued, reinforcing the view that large players are accumulating exposure at current levels. This aligns with broader trends showing continued adoption of digital assets within institutional portfolios despite macro uncertainty.At the same time, market positioning has shifted sharply. Data from CoinGlass shows that nearly $200 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, signalling a squeeze that likely contributed to recent upward price pressure. Such liquidations tend to accelerate rallies as forced buying compounds underlying demand.Flow dynamics have also been supportive. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted approximately $1.5 billion in inflows over the past week, with consistent daily allocations extending to six consecutive sessions. This steady stream of capital suggests ongoing institutional allocation rather than episodic trading activity.The combination of ETF demand and short covering points to tightening available supply in the market. Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail-driven momentum, current price action appears increasingly anchored in regulated investment vehicles and longer-term capital.Taken together, the data paints a constructive near-term outlook for Bitcoin, with institutional conviction, ETF inflows, and positioning dynamics all aligning to support prices. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia's PMIs are expected to remain in contraction today (the flash readings for April). PMIs returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. From Japan the picture for April is not expected to be so bleak.The focus today is once again on the war makers, not data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla just released Q1 results and the headline is a clean beat on the bottom line, with a revenue miss that nobody is going to care about. Here's the scorecard:Adjusted EPS: $0.41 vs. $0.34 expected — a 21% beatGAAP EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.12 a year agoRevenue: $22.39B vs. $22.64B expected — a slight miss, but still +16% y/yGAAP gross margin: 21.1% vs. 17.7% expected — the number of the quarterThat gross margin print is the eye-popper. Auto gross margin ex-credits came in at 19.2%, up from 12.5% a year ago and 17.9% in Q4. That is a massive sequential move and it's where the EPS beat came from. But here's where you need to squint.How they beat — and why to be cautiousDig into Tesla's own Y/Y walk and the story gets murkier. Operating income of $941M (+136% YoY) was helped by:"Increase in automotive one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs" — listed as the #1 positive driver"Increase in energy one-time benefits related to tariffs" — another one-timer that could be $300-$500m alone (there should be something on the call)Positive FX impact of $0.2B on operating income, $0.9B on revenueStrip out the one-time warranty/tariff benefits and FX tailwind, and the underlying margin story is less heroic than the headline suggests, amye 14-17% but still much better than 12.5% a year ago. If you strip it out, you could argue EPS was in-line. Regulatory credits also fell to $380M from $595M a year ago — credit revenue as a share of auto gross margin dropped to 1.9% from 3.7%, meaning the underlying auto business is genuinely more profitable, just not as profitable as the GAAP print implies.The ugly bitsEnergy revenue: $2.41B, -12% YoY — storage deployed 8.8 GWh, worst quarter in over a year after the record 14.2 GWh in Q4. That's a real demand question but was outlined in the deliveries number.Inventory ballooned $2.26B in the quarter — days of supply jumped to 27 from 15 in Q4. They built cars they didn't sell.R&D +38% YoY to $1.95B, SG&A +47% to $1.83B — the AI/Robotaxi/Optimus spend ramp is real and accelerating$2.0B SpaceX equity investment hit the cash flow statement. Free cash flow of $1.44B held up anyway.Days payable outstanding jumped to 71 from 61 in Q4Inventory grew $2.26BNet income of $491M was the lowest in two years outside of Q1 2025The bull foodActive FSD subscriptions hit 1.28M, up 51% y/y. Paid Robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially. Cybercab and Tesla Semi in pilot production, volume production guided for this year. The company said preparations for the first large-scale Optimus factory will begin in Q2.Stock is going to trade on the call, not the print. Margin beat gets the initial pop; the one-time benefits disclosure and inventory build are what short sellers will hammer on. Watch the 4:30pm ET Q&A. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here is the bull case for stock markets right now:1) Trump is bored of the warThe war will end because Trump wants it to end, period. There are things to work out but Trump measures himself on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and rising gasoline prices are kryptonite for American politicians. I'd have though we had priced in a 95% chance of the war ending 8-10 days ago, but here we are and we haven't even given back the "Hormuz is open" rally.2) AI is amazingI keep thinking about the talk a few months back from OpenAI founder Ilya Sutskever who said something like "what amazes me about AI is that works". We have become accustomed to using AI now but when you step back, it's still something that's close to magic. Sutskever said that AI will be able to do everything that humans can. If you ignore the possible apocalyptic risks, what could possibly be more bullish than that? The latest leg higher in stocks came after the leaks around Anthropics Mythos and in the long arc of history, AI will be remembered far more than this short-lived war. The investment boom will continue and it will deliver.3) The economy is goodWhile the war was going on, the US continued to release economic data and it consistently ran better than expected. Jobs have picked up again and this week's retail sales report was strong. Sentiment is ghastly but that's stopped consumers and businesses are continuing to invest. If not for this war, we would be writing about a strong economy.That's fairly compelling stuff but let me know highlight the downside risks.1) This war isn't overEvery prolonged war is the result of miscalculation. World War I was sold as a short adventure with soliders told they'd be home by Christmas, Napoleon thought Russia would capitulate after he entered Moscow, The US thought Vietnam would fold and Putin thought Ukraine would be quickly defeated.Iran suddenly finds itself holding huge leverage and time is on its side, with every barrel not produced adding pressure on the US and others to back down, remove sanctions, provide funds, accept some nuclear enrichment, pay a toll or remove military bases. Perhaps they're miscalculating as well but there's a fair chance they press their luck, perhaps more than Trump thinks as today we learned that they still have about half of their missiles.While stocks are pricing in peace, oil prices continue to rise. That dynamic can't continue.2) Rate cuts aren't comingBefore the war, the market was pricing in two rate cuts this year. December oil is at $76 now and even if we retreat back there, that's up 25% from pre-war levels. That alone is enough to keep inflation above target all year. The better economic data highlighted above also isn't necessarily good for stocks as it underscores that rate cuts aren't necessary.3) The shorts are getting squeezedToday's price action across a number of stocks worries me. Many of the top performers are some of the most-shorted names along with some meme stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% and if the AI disruption highlighted above is coming, that's hard to square.Even with that, the S&P 500 isn't making new highs (though the Nasdaq is). It's been a nice run in stocks and I've been on board with until this week but it's starting to look dangerously vulnerable. We start into the megacap earnings with Tesla today and that how those reports fare could dictate the next move but last quarter wasn't exactly inspiring. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tesla reports Q1 earnings today after the closing bell, with the release hitting the tape after the 4pm ET market close and the Q&A webcast kicking off at 4:30pm ET. For a stock that's already down 14% year-to-date while the S&P 500 sits at a record, there's plenty riding on the numbers — and even more riding on the narrative.The consensus:EPS: $0.37Revenue: $22.64 billionThat revenue print would mark roughly 17% growth from the $19.3 billion a year ago — Tesla's strongest top-line expansion since mid-2023, if it lands. Worth remembering: Q1 deliveries came in at 358,023 units, up about 6% y/y but down sequentially. And the energy storage business deployed just 8.8 GWh after a record 14.2 GWh in Q4 — a clear soft spot Wall Street will want addressed.The core auto franchise is still battling Xiaomi and BYD on price and tech, Musk's political baggage continues to weigh on brand perception in key markets, and the aging lineup isn't getting any younger. FSD (Supervised) at $99/month just got the green light in the Netherlands, with broader European approval pending — a small win, but not the game-changer bulls need.Note that deliveries were reported at the start of the month at 358K vs 372K expected so some of the bad news is already baked in.The real story: RobotaxiMusk's timing is not accidental. Tesla launched fully unsupervised Robotaxi service in Dallas and Houston on April 18, four days before today's report. They touted no safety monitors in the front seat and geofenced to roughly 25 square miles in each city. The stock rallied 12% into the announcement but that's mixed in with Iran reports and the overall market. I haven't seen any reviews of the actual rollout.Skeptics are out in force. Electrek notes Tesla has reported 15 crash incidents to NHTSA since the Austin launch, with crash rates estimated at 4–9x worse than human drivers. Waymo, meanwhile, is already doing 500,000 paid rides per week across 10 cities — including Dallas and Houston since February.What traders will watch on the call:Automotive gross margin ex-credits — the only number that matters for the car business. It could fall hard as the company discounts to keep sales numbers upHard Robotaxi metrics: fleet size, rides, unit economics (Tesla has been allergic to disclosing these)Optimus V3 timeline and any Cybercab production dateSpaceX/xAI integration and Terafab capexAnything resembling full-year delivery guidanceOptions are pricing a ~7% move. Given the gap between the story Musk wants to tell and the numbers the P&L actually delivers, that feels about right but never underestimate the power of Musk's hype machine, particularly around robotics. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

From Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian:The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so. Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations. World sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions.There is fairly consistent messaging around this but there is still seemingly a path to peace where everyone drops their blockades and sanctions and both sides declare victory.Obviously, the stock market is continuing to bet that way even as oil prices creep higher. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is a bit of a bizarre saga.Yesterday, Trump reposted a bit about 8 Iranian women who he said were scheduled to be hanged and he asked to release them.To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPNow he writes:Very good news! I have just been informed that the eight women protestors who were going to be executed tonight in Iran will no longer be killed. Four will be released immediately, and four will be sentenced to one month in prison. I very much appreciate that Iran, and its leaders, respected my request, as President of the United States, and terminated the planned execution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMPThe thing is, it's been reported that the women were never facing any kind of death sentence. Oslo-based Iran Human Rights reported yesterday that two of the women were out on bail already.Iran’s also responded to Trump's post, saying some of the women have already been released without naming them. It said none of them faced the death sentence.It's tough to understand what's going on here, whether someone bamboozled him on Truth Social or he was trying to stitch something together to claim a win, some kind of diplomacy meant to make Iran look merciful or something else.In any case, the market is taking it as good news and I think that's the right take. If Trump's happy, then the market is happy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's important to note that with all the MB Ghalibaf posts, that his twitter account appears to be run from Los Angeles by someone connected with him, not the man himself. That's led to some bizarre posts about trading brent crude and it also calls into question a message like this that might be more interpretation than a finely-crafted message.Anyway, this is just out (translated):A complete ceasefire only makes sense if it is not violated by the maritime blockade and the hostage-taking of the world’s economy, and if the Zionist warmongering across all fronts is halted; reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible with such a flagrant breach of the ceasefire. They did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor will they through bullying. The only way forward is to recognize the rights of the Iranian nation.Meanwhile, CBS is out with a report that says about half of Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles are still operational. About half of Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems were still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, three of the officials told CBS News.That's important because it means that Iran still definitely has the capability to destroy neighboring infrastructure if it's energy system is attacked. In terms of mines or capturing ships, it also says that roughly 60% of the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still in existence with two-thirds of the air force still operational.Obviously the ground forces are also still largely intact as well, as there has been virtually no ground fighting.That strongly contrasts with what Trump has said about Iran's navy and air force being completely decimated. It also makes you wonder what the 15,000 bombs dropped were aimed at.Oil prices continue to tick higher today with WTI up $3.33 to $93.31. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe US stock market today is witnessing a remarkable uplift, primarily driven by gains in the Technology and Consumer Cyclical sectors. The standout performer is the semiconductor sector, which is seeing significant activity. Micron Technology (MU) has soared by +5.09% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is not far behind with a gain of +3.74%. This upward swing is a clear indication of robust investor confidence in the tech market, despite recent global supply chain concerns.In the Consumer Electronics segment, Apple (AAPL) shines with an increase of +2.20%, buoyed by strong sales forecasts and new product launches.Market Mood and TrendsOverall market sentiment today reflects an optimistic outlook, especially within tech-heavy portfolios. With giants like Microsoft (MSFT) advancing +1.66% and Google (GOOGL) climbing +1.87%, the renewed investor appetite suggests a rebound from previous apprehensions regarding inflation and interest rates. The growing momentum in Consumer Cyclical stocks like Amazon (AMZN), up +1.34%, further fuels this optimism, pointing to consumer spending resilience.However, the day isn't entirely without its setbacks. The Aerospace and Defense sector is witnessing some turbulence, with Raytheon Technologies (RTX) dropping -3.27%, signaling sector-specific pressures or global geopolitical influences.Strategic RecommendationsToday's surges suggest a tactical rebalancing towards high-performing tech stocks could be a prudent move for investors looking to capitalize on potential upside. Keeping an eye on semiconductor stocks, given their current robust performance, might provide lucrative opportunities as market stability returns. Conversely, caution in sectors like Aerospace could be advised given current short-term fluctuations.Investors may consider diversifying within Consumer Cyclical, particularly in well-performing stocks like Amazon and Tesla (TSLA), which gained +1.47%. Monitoring forthcoming earnings reports in these domains may unearth further potential growth trajectories. Stay connected with InvestingLive.com for the latest analysis and strategic insights to navigate these dynamic market conditions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

I think the 3-5 day timeline first reported was more of a ballpark anyway so I don't really take this as a meaningful update. It seems like the US has decided to just wait and see what Iran will do next. The only real action we've had today is Iran firing on three cargo ships in the Strait. There are reports that two of them were seized but that's unconfirmed. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -913KGasoline -4570K vs -1494K expectedDistillates -3427K vs -2458K expectedAPI data from late yesterday:Crude -4400KGasoline -5165KDistillates -4590KFor background, the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is the most closely watched read on U.S. oil and refined product inventories and a key driver of short-term moves in crude prices. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET (or Thursday after a Monday holiday), it covers the week ending the prior Friday and provides national and regional data on commercial crude oil stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization, imports and exports, and implied product demand. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery hub for NYMEX WTI futures — are watched especially closely as a barometer of physical balance in the U.S. market. The WPSR is typically previewed the prior afternoon by the American Petroleum Institute's private survey, and any divergence between the two often drives the immediate price reaction.Recent reports have pointed to a steady seasonal build. Crude inventories rose 3.8 million barrels in the week ending March 6, then climbed by 6.2 million, 6.9 million, and 5.5 million barrels in the following weeks, lifting total commercial stocks to 461.6 million barrels by March 27 — about 0.1% above the five-year average. The April 8 release showed another 3.1-million-barrel build for the week ending April 3, well above expectations near 700,000, pushing inventories to 464.7 million barrels and roughly 2% above the five-year norm. The most recent report, covering the week ending April 10, was published April 15; the next release is scheduled for April 22. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The bitcoin chart is interesting today.A nice base has formed in the 60-65K range and now it's broken out, chewing into the February rout. Bitcoin daily chart:The rise today above last week's high is a positive signal but it's not clear if that's a leading or lagging indicator. There was once a strong correlation between the Nasdaq and bitcoin but it was fractured last year and hasn't reconnected. It's still a risk-positive asset though and so it's not a surprise that it's moving higher as the market continues to believe that Trump is done with the Iran war.There upshot is that there is a nice possible 'catch-up' trade in bitcoin if risk assets can hold.That aligns nicely with today's technical move, which doesn't face much resistance until close to $90,000, or about a 13% climb. Also note the series of higher lows since early February and series of higher highs. Those are all positive indications.On the sentiment side, I get the sense that bitcoin is bombed out. All the fast-money chasers have moved onto stocks, options and even to prediction markets. Familiarity with bitcoin is still high and access is still easy though. In a momentum-driven market, a catch-up trade in a risk positive environment can be a good catalyst.There is also Iran and talk about paying tolls in bitcoin or stablecoins. That's a use-case for crypto and could underpin bids. Unfortunately, there is a bit of a viral article out there claiming that one ship paid the crypto toll but was fired upon anyway. Supposedly, it wasn't actually paid to Iran but to scammers how had impersonated Iran. So that's not exactly encouraging for the ecosystem or adoption.The downside risk is that bombing restarts in the war and risk assets are crushed again. Worse yet would be widespread attacks on infrastructure in Iran with Iran responding by bombing energy infrastructure throughout the region. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -16.3The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) is the European Commission's flagship monthly gauge of household sentiment across the 21 euro-area members and is one of the most closely watched real-time reads on the region's economy. Compiled by the Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), the index is built from harmonized consumer surveys covering households' assessments of their financial situation, the broader economic outlook, and intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months. The Commission publishes a flash estimate in the final week of each month, followed by a final reading at month-end as part of the wider Business and Consumer Survey package that also includes the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI). The CCI is expressed as a balance of positive and negative responses, so all readings tend to sit in negative territory; the long-run average is roughly -10.After a difficult 2024, sentiment had been gradually improving through the early part of 2026. February's reading was confirmed at -12.2, the highest level since November 2024, supported by a brighter view of the overall economy and easing inflation expectations. That fragile recovery reversed sharply in March. The flash CCI plunged 4.0 points to -16.3 — the weakest reading since October 2023 and well below consensus expectations near -14.4. Sentiment across the broader EU mirrored the move, falling 3.4 points to -15.2.The Commission attributed the deterioration to a dramatic decline in consumers' expectations for the overall economic situation, with households also turning more pessimistic on future finances and big-ticket purchases. Rising energy and inflation expectations tied to the Iran conflict were cited as key drivers. The broader ESI also fell, to 96.6, deepening fears of stagflation as private-sector output slowed. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The New York Post texted President Trump to ask about the possibility of renewed mediation efforts and talks within the next 36-72 hours and he responded:“It’s possible! President DJT.”Signing texts is a strange one but I wouldn't run too far with this report. Perhaps the more notable part is that it cited "Pakistani sources" on positive mediation efforts:Sources in Islamabad touted positive mediation efforts with Tehran renewing the possibility of more peace talks within the next “36 to 72 hours.”There was also a quirk in a Fars report. A quote attributed to Ismail Baghaei, the spokesman for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, regarding "accepting a ceasefire mediated by Pakistan" was published but was deleted minutes later. It was quickly picked up but now Fars says that news about a ceasefire has not been published by any official source.Between these two reports, you get the sense that there is some good news behind the scenes but it's going to be a bumpy road. They're still fighting over the preliminary conditions for talks and not the details of any agreement. It's hard to say whether the IRGC is driving a hard line, it's miscommunication or US efforts to sow confusion. I also tend to think that Iran dragging this out works in their favor as every day of delay tightens the global oil market.Update: Now CNN echoes earlier reports saying that Trump has given Iranian negotiators a "limited timeframe" to come up with a unified proposal to get negotiations back on track. That's been reported elsewhere as 3-5 days but it's likely that Trump hasn't given them a firm timeline. Also note that he back off of 'deadlines' around attacking infrastructure 5 times now so it's not like the exact timeframe matters anyway.There is this as well as Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson to BBC: Iran has not yet decided whether it will join the next round of talks with the U.S. late this week in Islamabad. "If we reach the conclusion that going to Islamabad serves our national interests, we will go there." This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sees 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% vs 1.0% previouslySees 2027 GDP at 0.9% vs 1.3% previouslyExpects inflation to rise to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027Expects flat exports this year, up 1.3% in 2027Recovery again held back by external shocksThe Bundesbank was out with some comment earlier:"The negative effects of the war in the Middle East are likely to be felt largely only later on"Q2 outlook points to "another modest expansion, at best"Fiscal policy to provide "increasingly positive impulses," but war will weigh "more broadly and noticeably"Inflation to stay "significantly elevated" in coming monthsConsensus GDP growth in Q1 is expected at +0.2% q/q and the report is out April 30.The Bundesbank is flagging that the real pain from the Middle East conflict is still ahead. Stagflation risks are building just as Berlin tries to cushion the blow on fuel prices. It's all about Iran from here with global oil stockpiles continuing to draw down. The Axios report said Trump will give Iran another 3-5 days to come up with a coherent team to negotiate because leadership is fractured. It's not clear if that's true but it's another 3-5 days of 13 million barrels of oil missing from the global market. There is talk that Europe will run out of jet fuel in six weeks. That's going to be mitigated by short-haul flight cancellations in a sign of the kind of trade offs that are coming.In Europe overall, business sentiment is souring and inflation expectations are rising. In Germany, Merz rolled out €1.6 billion in fuel-price relief and Merz says more measures ready if the situation escalates. The euro is down 6 pips to 1.1735 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Iran seizes, attacks two cargo ships trying to cross Strait of HormuzTrump tweets on Iran financial "collapse", want to reopen Strait of HormuzOil prices jump on Iran's refusal for talks, but consolidate on ceasefire extensionGold bounces back from overnight lows as the cautious optimism holdsECB's Simkus: The ECB shouldn't raise interest rates in AprilECB policymaker Lane "admits" the euro can't replace US dollar's role as global safe havenECB policymaker Kazāks says not in a rush to make a move on monetary policyUK March CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y expectedMarkets:WTI crude up 0.5% to $90.03US dollar little changed across the board on nervous marketsEquities hold on to optimism with S&P 500 futures up 0.6%European indices more shaky, down slightly around 0.1% to 0.4%Gold up 0.8% to $4,750, Silver up 1.6% to $78.00Once again, it is another one of those days where trading conditions in Europe are gripped by the US-Iran conflict. This time, it was more of a case of nervous anticipation and some cautious optimism awaiting talks between the two sides.There's still no word about US vice president Vance's travel plans as Iran continues to maintain that they won't negotiate so long as the US naval blockade remains. In the meantime, Iran's military proceeded to attack and seize a couple of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump announcing an extension to the ceasefire yesterday.Oil prices remain steady with WTI crude up 0.5% to $90.03 while Brent crude is up 0.7% to $99.15 on the day.Meanwhile, equities are holding on to some optimism with S&P 500 futures keeping up by 0.6%. The mood is helped by a possible rehash in the headlines from Bloomberg during the session, in saying that Iran received 'some sign' that the US might break its blockade on the waterway.European indices are less enthused, keeping little changed and more mixed on the session.In other markets, the dollar is also keeping a tighter range after a brief drop to the linked headline early in the session. EUR/USD moved up to 1.1760 before falling back to near flat levels now at 1.1737 on the day. USD/JPY is also more tepid as it keeps lower by just 0.1% at 159.20 currently.As for precious metals, we are seeing some modest gains in gold and silver with the former up 0.8% to $4,750 and the latter up 1.6% to $78.00 on the day.All eyes are on more US-Iran headlines and when we are going to see the next round of talks take place, which likely should be a question of when and not if. That at least if you go by the kind of messaging from US president Trump all week so far. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The ECB shouldn't raise interest rates in AprilWe can't rule out a rate hike this yearECB policymaker, Gediminas Simkus, reiterated the cautious stance regarding the ECB's monetary policy, emphasising that while a rate hike in April is unlikely, the door remains open for policy tightening later this year.The Lithuanian central bank governor indicated that there is currently no immediate pressure to adjust the benchmark rates during the upcoming April meeting. This view aligns with the broader consensus within the Governing Council, which has maintained a "data-dependent" and "meeting-by-meeting" approach.Current policy rates, including the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, are viewed by many as appropriate given that core inflation has recently hovered near the bank's 2% target, despite an uptick in headline inflation due to the energy price spike caused by the US-Iran war.Simkus added that the ECB cannot rule out a rate hike before year-end though. While the eurozone has shown unexpected resilience with a steady growth rate and low unemployment, structural factors such as rising fiscal spending on defense and potential supply chain disruptions continue to pose upside risks to inflation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.