The US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was potentially due today but four other decisions were rendered, and no word on tariffs. No other decision days have been announced for this week.The IEEPA is a 1977 law that gives the President broad powers to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency. Historically, it’s been the "sanctions button"—used to freeze assets of terrorists or rogue states. But the Trump administration dusted it off to impose sweeping tariffs, effectively using it as a trade weapon.The legal battle (specifically cases like Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) boils down to one critical question: Does the power to "regulate" imports include the power to tax them?Importers argue that "regulating" isn't "taxing." They say if Congress wanted the President to levy tariffs unilaterally, they would have said so. The government argues the statute is broad enough to cover it.Why this matters for marketsIf the Supreme Court rules against the government, the implications are staggering.We are talking about potential refunds on tariffs collected under IEEPA. Estimates put this north of $150 billion. If importers (think big retail, tech, autos) get that cash back, it’s a massive injection of liquidity into corporate balance sheets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US stock market witnessed a notable downturn today, largely driven by declines in major technology stocks, while the financial sector exhibited pockets of resilience. The overall mood hints at caution among investors amidst evolving market conditions.? Technology Sector: A Substantial PullbackSemiconductors: Chipmakers faced significant pressure. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped by 1.05%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw a sharper decline of 1.90%. Broadcom (AVGO) also fell by 1.36%, highlighting the sector's vulnerability.Software and Infrastructure: Microsoft (MSFT) slipped by 0.75%, fueled largely by concerns over software demand stability. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) decreased by 0.71%.Consumer Electronics: Apple (AAPL) fell by 0.55%, indicating possible market jitters surrounding consumer spending patterns and supply chain constraints.Internet and Communication: Google (GOOG) receded by 0.47%, while Meta Platforms (META) shed 0.83%, contributing to the broader negative sentiment in the tech domain.? Financial Sector: Bracing Against HeadwindsBanks: Despite overall market dips, financial stocks had a mixed performance, with Bank of America (BAC) decreasing steeply by 3.35%. However, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) showed minor resilience, only down 0.26%.Credit Services: Visa (V) posted a satisfactory gain of 0.31%, reflecting steady consumer spending patterns.Asset Management: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) increased by 0.21%, helping offset some financial sector losses.? Strategic RecommendationsThe market’s current trajectory, characterized by a tech retreat and resilience in financials, suggests vigilance for investors. Here are some actionable strategies:Diversify Portfolios: Consider redirecting investments towards sectors displaying resilience, such as financials and healthcare, to mitigate risks associated with tech volatility.Monitor Tech News: Stay updated with developments in the semiconductor and software industries to anticipate further price movements and adjust holdings accordingly.Focus on Stability: Securities like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) can offer stability amidst market turbulence, making them a wise consideration.Overall, today's market snapshot underscores the importance of strategic flexibility and informed decision-making. The tech sector's pullback contrasts against financial resilience, framing a complex landscape for traders and investors. Stay tuned to InvestingLive.com for continuous updates and expert analysis, ensuring your investment decisions are data-driven and timely. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Eyes will be on the US Supreme Court at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) as it delivers another decision.We don't know whether today's decision will be on tariffs or something else. The Supreme Court doesn't schedule its decisions, it only announces that a decision on one of the cases before it will be delivered today. We went through the same thing on Friday and tariff anticipation built up but the ultimate decision was on criminal law.Betting sites saw a surge in the odds that tariffs will be struck down after oral arguments in November. A majority of Justices sounded skeptical that Congressional powers of taxation were being respected, or that the rule of law was being followed. If they're struck down, the reasoning and remedy will be critical.If the reasoning leans towards it being a 'major questions' problem, the other tariff remedies could also be under threat. If it's more technical, then it clears the way for Trump to use other tariff powers to reconstitute tariffs, something that administration officials have pledged.I looked at how the administration could pivot and use different tariff powers here.The remedy is also a thorny issue. If the Supreme Court rules that tariffs must be refunded, then it would be a windfall for importers and a big hit to the US government's finances. it's nowhere near the 'trillions' that Trump often touts but the refunds would amount to around $130-$150 billion.Last week, I wrote about the stocks that could be winners and losers on the tariff decision. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq Futures Analysis Today: Calm Long-Term Structure, Tactical Pressure Short TermA comment on trading social media earlier today said the Nasdaq “looks startled.”That single sentence was enough to trigger a full orderFlow Intel review across the long-term, medium-term, and short-term structure of Nasdaq futures.The conclusion is nuanced, but important:there is no panic, no structural breakdown, and no evidence of long-term fear.At the same time, there is short- and medium-term pressure that traders should respect.To make this useful for both professionals and less experienced readers, let’s break it down and then map out specific price levels that matter and why.Long-Term View: No Panic, No Structural DamageFrom a long-term perspective, the Nasdaq remains structurally stable.Value has migrated higher over time, and price remains well above the major November lows. This is not the behavior of a market under stress or one experiencing forced selling. Long-term participants are still engaged, and there are no signs of liquidation or fear-driven exits.This matters because short-term volatility often feels dramatic, but long-term structure tells us whether something is actually breaking. Right now, it is not.I'm also looking at this simple daily chart at NDX (The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization), seperately from Nasdaq futures. And I think you should also be watching the Nasdaq Index today, to see how it possibly reacts to that red resistance line and the 26,000 psychological round number, perhaps later this week.Medium-Term View: Discomfort, Not CollapseThe medium-term picture is where the tension shows up.Recent price action has occurred below key reference levels, and value has shifted lower over recent sessions. That puts sellers in control for now on this timeframe, even though the long-term structure remains intact.This is where confusion often arises. Many readers ask:“So… is the market bullish or bearish?”The answer is that different timeframes can say different things at the same time, and that is normal.Long term: stable and constructiveMedium term: under pressure, rotating lowerShort term: stabilizing, but not resolvedUnderstanding that distinction is what prevents overreaction.Short-Term View: Stabilization Near Important SupportOn the short-term view, buyers have stepped in to slow the decline and stabilize price, particularly near levels that have repeatedly attracted interest over the past several days.This does not yet mean the market has turned bullish, but it does mean downside momentum is being absorbed rather than accelerating.The Navigational Map for Nasdaq Futures Today: Key Levels That MatterThis is where the analysis becomes actionable.These are not random numbers. They are prices that define value boundaries, areas where professional and algorithmic participants reassess risk and exposure.1. 25,862 – Yesterday’s Value Area Low (Short-Term Ceiling)This level is important because it marks the lower boundary of yesterday’s accepted value.Even if price rebounds toward today’s VWAP near 25,825, this level remains a ceilingIf price can produce two 30-minute closes above 25,862, it signals re-entry into yesterday’s value areaThat would strongly suggest that today’s dip is being repaired rather than extendedFor less technical readers, think of this as a gate. If price re-enters yesterday’s “room,” conditions improve meaningfully.2. 25,659 – Major Support ClusterThis is one of the most important levels on the chart.It aligns with:Multiple session lows over the past three and a half daysA long-standing volume profile reference from well before January 8A clear clustering of historical interestAs long as buyers are not panicking, this level has a high probability of being defended. Losing it decisively would change the medium-term narrative.3. 25,550 – Deeper Support, Line in the SandThis level appears repeatedly in the 30-minute structure and sits below the recent range.If price reaches this area, buyers should be expected to defend itA failure here would indicate that bearish pressure is no longer just rotationalUntil that happens, it remains a worst-case support scenario, not a base case4. 25,878 – January 12 VWAP (Upside Test)If price reclaims today’s VWAP and then pushes above 25,878, it would signal improving acceptance on the upside.That would weaken the current medium-term bearish rotation and reopen higher targets.5. 26,000 – Psychological and Structural MagnetRound numbers matter because they concentrate liquidity and decision-making.A sustained move toward 26,000 would suggest renewed upside ambitionAcceptance above it would reopen the discussion around new all-time highsFailure near it would likely attract sellers againWhy These Levels Are Not “Just Lines on a Chart”Some readers understandably say:“If price is above X, it’s bullish. Below X, it’s bearish. What’s new?”The difference here is context.These levels are not arbitrary. They define value territories.When price crosses them and stays there, it is not just moving higher or lower. It is entering a new area where more upside or downside becomes statistically more likely, because that is how professional participants and algorithms interpret value transitions.Crossing a gate opens a new room.Bottom Line for Nasdaq Traders and InvestorsThere is no long-term panic in the NasdaqMedium-term pressure exists and should be respectedShort-term stabilization is occurring near important supportKey levels, not headlines, will determine what comes nextThis is a market that rewards patience and structure, not emotional reactions.As always, this analysis is a decision-support tool, not financial advice. Markets evolve, and so should positioning.—Analysis by Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.1%)Details:Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.4% expectedPrior ex autos +0.4% (revised to +0.2%)Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.4%)Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.8% (revised to +0.6%)Retail sales y/y % vs +3.47% priorThis is generally in-line on the headline but the overall report is a tad soft because of the revisions.Food services and drinking places +0.6% (prior: -0.1%) — spending on experiences reaccelerated after a soft October, a good read on discretionary demand Clothing and clothing accessories +0.9% (prior: +1.2%) — still strong even after a big October gain, consistent with tariff front-running or early holiday demand Motor vehicle and parts dealers +1.0% (prior: -1.6%) — sharp reversal following October weakness, likely helped by incentives and pull-forward demand Building materials and garden supplies +1.3% (prior: -1.3%) — bounce after a weak prior month, hinting at tentative stabilization in housing-related activity Furniture and home furnishings -0.1% (prior: +1.8%) — gave back part of October’s strength, underscoring how rate-sensitive this category remains Grocery stores +0.1% (prior: +0.2%) — little change month to month, suggesting volumes remain under pressureNonstore retailers +0.4% (prior: +1.0%) — growth cooled from October but the underlying trend remains solidThe year-over-year changes show which parts of the economy are doing ok, and which ones are struggling. These aren't inflation-adjusted so ratchet them down by about 2.7 pp.Food services and drinking places: +4.9% y/yClothing and clothing accessories stores: +7.5% y/yMotor vehicle and parts dealers: −0.7% y/yBuilding material and garden equipment & supplies dealers: −2.8% y/yFurniture and home furnishings stores: −1.4% y/yGrocery stores: +2.9% y/yNonstore retailers: +7.2% y/yControl group (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services): +4.4% y/yFor back ground: the US retail sales report is one of the market’s cleanest reads on the health of the American consumer, and by extension the broader economy. Released monthly by the Census Bureau, it tracks the dollar value of sales across a wide range of retailers, from autos and gas stations to restaurants and online stores (shown as non-store retailers). Because consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, the report carries real weight for growth expectations and interest-rate pricing.Markets tend to focus on the “control group,” which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services. That subset feeds directly into GDP calculations and often matters more than the headline. Strong retail sales suggest resilient demand, firmer pricing power, and less urgency for rate cuts. Weak numbers raise questions about consumer fatigue, credit stress, and the durability of the expansion.It’s a noisy report, prone to revisions and seasonal quirks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.7%PPI M/M +0.2% vs 0.2% expectedPrior +0.3%Core PPI Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expectedPrior +2.6%Core PPI M/M +0.0% vs +0.2% expectedPrior +0.1%The BLS notes that the November increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged.As a reminder, this is November data and besides being old news at this point, it could have the same shutdown related issues of the November CPI. I don't expect the market to focus too much on the data because we already got the more important and more timely December CPI yesterday.The market is pricing 54 bps of easing by year and that's unlikely to change much with today's data. The recent Fedspeak has shown zero interest for a rate cut in January even though the market still assigns it a 9% probability. The Fed projected just one cut in 2026 at the last policy meeting and we will need more labour market deterioration or bigger than expected fall in inflation to see them going faster on rate cuts.We've seen minimal reaction to the data as expected.WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES?The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In simpler terms, it tracks inflation from the perspective of the seller/business rather than the consumer like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is trading mostly lower with the USDJPY the weakest (-0.34%). THe greenback is lower by 0.17% versus the GBP and down -0.10% versus the EUR. The changes versus the other currency pairs including the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD are all within 0.10% from the closing levels yesterday. Tariffs? What tariffs. China’s 2025 trade data show exports powering the economy to a record surplus, defying expectations that tariffs would meaningfully slow its manufacturing engine.Key takeaways:China’s trade surplus hit a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, underscoring export strength despite tariff pressure.Exports rose 5.5% in 2025, only slightly slower than 2024, while December exports grew 6.6% YoY and imports rebounded 5.7% YoY.Shipments to the United States fell 20%, but losses were offset by strong gains to Southeast Asia (+13%), the European Union (+8.4%), Latin America (+7.4%), and Africa (+26%).Global demand—helped by AI-related spending—and producer-price deflation kept Chinese goods competitive abroad.Manufacturing and exports drove growth, while property and household consumption lagged, reinforcing a “two-track” economy.Supply-chain diversification hasn’t displaced China; even when final assembly shifts elsewhere, Chinese components and equipment remain central.Geopolitical risks are rising, with concerns about cheap-goods inflows and warnings from the International Monetary Fund that China is too large to rely on exports for growth.2026 outlook is mixed: some export strength was front-loaded due to tariff uncertainty, but competitiveness and resilient global demand may keep exports firm; Beijing is phasing out export tax rebates for solar products and batteries amid oversupply. Can China keep the growth without the US? Was the numbers skewed because of the frontloading of inventory? So far they have weathered the storms. In Japan, the election drama continues to unfold. Japan opposition parties CDP and Komeito today have started talks on forming a new party. That sent the USDJPY lower and back below the January 2025 high at 158.87. The next targets come in at the November high at 157.89. The December high was at 157.76. The low price today reached to 15815. That was just short of the rising 100 hour MA at 158.08 (blue line on the chart below). Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is said to be poised to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026, triggering a high-stakes snap general election.The Essentials:Target Dates: Election Day is expected to be either February 8 or February 15, 2026.The Strategy: Takaichi is looking to capitalize on her 70% approval rating to reclaim a solid majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The party currently relies on a "confidence and supply" coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party to stay in power.The Risks: Calling an election now could delay the 2026 National Budget, potentially impacting local government funding and inflation-relief measures.There ware more bank earnings today with Wells, BofA and Citigroup announcing today. JPMorgan and Bank of New Yorked kicked off the earnings season yesterday. So far, the early U.S. bank earnings point to a mixed start to the season, with stronger-than-expected results at the money-center banks offset by softer performance from regional lenders.Earnings recap:Citigroup (C) Q4 2025: EPS $1.81 (BEAT; exp. $1.68), Revenue $21.0B (BEAT; exp. $20.55B)Bank of America (BAC) Q4 2025: EPS $0.98 (BEAT; exp. $0.96), Revenue $28.4B (BEAT; exp. $27.56B)Wells Fargo (WFC) Q4 2025: EPS $1.62 (MISS; exp. $1.66), Revenue $21.3B (MISS; exp. $21.64B)Looking the share prices:JP Morgan tumbled 4.19% yesterday and is unchanged in premarket trading today. Bank of New York rose 1.88% yesterday. Its shares are currently trading up 0.06% in premarket trading.Bank of America shares fell -1.18% yesterday and are currently down -0.4% today.Wells Fargo fell -1.47% yesterday and premarket shares are down -1.88%. Citigroup fell -1.19% yesterday and is currently up 0.09% todayOverall, the US stock indices are currently trading lower:Dow industrial average -142 points.S&P index -27 pointsNASDAQ index -128 pointsin the US debt market, yields are marginally lower: 2-year yield 3.520%, -0.8 basis points 5 year yield 3.732%, -1.0 basis points.10 year yield 4.159%, -1.1 basis points30 year yield 4.821%, -0.7 basis points US PPI will will be released at the bottom of the hour with the headline expected to rise by 0.2% and X food and energy also expected to rise by 0.2%. The YoY numbers are both expected to come in at 2.7%. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% with ex autos up 0.4% in the control group also up 0.4%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe market has quickly forgotten about Maduro and Venezuela as the focus switched to the protests in Iran and Trump's threats of military action to support the protestors. The US President is taking advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms.Yesterday, Trump stated on his Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran's officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on the way.Nobody knows what he meant with "help is on the way" and when asked about it he answered with a "you are going to have to figure it out". Oil prices rose to new highs following Trump's post as fears of military intervention continue to be a tailwind for the market.WTI OIL FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that we recently got a breakout of the falling channel with the buyers piling in with more conviction. Moreover, yesterday the price broke above the swing level around the $60.50 level opening the door for a rally into the $66.00 price region. The market is now driven solely by the geopolitical tensions between US and Iran, so traders will keep focusing on that front for the next direction.WTI OIL FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will want to see a break below the trendline and the $60.50 level to position for a pullback into the major support zone around the $58.80 level. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Japanese Yen rebounds amid barrage of verbal intervention and "sell the fact" tradeJapan's finance minister offers up an oddly specific commentTokyo officials intensify verbal intervention on the Japanese yenNippon Ishin party leader says Takaichi is to call snap election at start of Diet sessionTrump says that the US needs Greenland for the purpose of national securityChina customs authorities say Nvidia's H200 chips are not permitted - reportTariffs? What tariffs? China posts record-breaking trade surplus in 2025Markets:JPY leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.151%Gold up 1.0% to $4,634.19WTI crude oil up 1.1% to $61.88Bitcoin up 0.7% to $94,750The Japanese yen was the main focus on the session after dropping in Asia, with USD/JPY ramping up above 159.00 to its highest since July 2024 at one point.All that before some verbal intervention from Tokyo officials, mostly as you would expect. However, included in there was an oddly specific comment by Japan finance minister Katayama. He singled out the yen decline last Friday as being not in line with fundamentals, triggering some selling in USD/JPY amid rising intervention risks.That halted the yen rout with the pair seeing some volatile price action but ultimately now being lower by 0.3% to 158.56 with the drop earlier even touching 158.15 on the session. That as Japan prime minister Takaichi also confirms that she will be dissolving the parliament's lower house later this month and will call for a snap election in February.As for other major currencies, there wasn't anything exciting with the dollar keeping more tepid ahead of more US data later in the day.The other notable headline on the session was that China has banned Nvidia's H200 AI chips from entering the country, barring special circumstances. That's keeping risk trades on edge alongside Trump threatening to claim Greenland on the pretext of "national security".US futures are sitting lower across the board with tech shares leading declines. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% currently.Meanwhile, European equities were off to a decent start with major benchmark indices in France, Spain, and the UK all posting fresh record highs at the open. However, the momentum is slowly fizzling out now with the DAX even being down 0.4% as risk trades err on the side of caution.The other big movers on the day are none other than precious metals once again. After catching a bid in Asia, gold and silver are holding on to gains for the most part in European morning trade. Gold is up 1.0% to $4,634 while silver is up near 5% to $91.30 on a break of the $90 mark today. The hot streak continues. ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

By Samuel Hertz, Head of APAC at EBC Financial Group On January 3, 2026, the United States confirmed the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an event that immediately sent shockwaves across diplomatic channels and global markets. While the incident was framed publicly as a political enforcement action, its deeper significance lies in how closely it aligns with the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). This was not an isolated event, but rather a policy action aligned with broader U.S. strategic priorities related to regional geopolitics, energy security, and global finance. The Oil Market Paradox: Why Price Did Not SpikeFrom a financial market perspective, the most striking outcome was not political escalation, but market restraint. Historically, upheaval in a country holding the world’s largest oil reserves would have triggered sharp increases in crude prices. In 2026, however, the response was muted.Despite possessing approximately 303 billion barrels of reserves, Venezuela’s oil sector has been structurally crippled by decades of underinvestment and infrastructure degradation. Current export volumes hover around 500,000 barrels per day, a figure that is economically insignificant when set against global demand of nearly 100 million barrels per day. As a result, disruptions in Venezuelan supply lack the scale necessary to meaningfully tighten global markets.This dynamic is further reinforced by the United States’ position as the world’s largest oil producer, with output nearly 13.4 million barrels per day. At this level, US production alone provides a substantial buffer against regional supply shocks, eliminating the need for emergency releases from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has shown a clear reluctance to reduce output aggressively, even after oil prices declined roughly 20 percent in 2025, underscoring a market still characterised by excess supply. In this context, Venezuela’s political shock registered as a volatility event rather than a structural repricing of oil.Defending the Petrodollar: The Monetary DimensionBeyond energy fundamentals, President Maduro’s capture carries deeper implications for the global monetary system. Prior to his detention, President Maduro had accelerated efforts to sell Venezuelan oil in non-USD currencies, while also promoting the petro cryptocurrency as an alternative settlement mechanism. Although limited in scale, these initiatives symbolised a broader trend toward de-dollarisation in commodity markets. By intervening, the United States effectively ensured that any future recovery in Venezuelan oil production would be reintegrated into the US dollar-based pricing and settlement system. This move strengthens the petrodollar framework at a time when BRICS economies are actively exploring parallel financial architectures. From a financial perspective, Venezuela has thus become less a political battleground and more a frontline in the defence of dollar dominance. Investment Outlook: Navigating Oil Oversupply in an AI-Driven Energy TransitionThe path to recovery, however, is neither immediate nor guaranteed. It is estimated that approximately USD58 billion will be required to modernise Venezuela’s ageing oil infrastructure, much of which dates back more than half a century. Only a small number of global energy majors, predominantly US-based firms such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, possess both the capital strength and strategic incentives to undertake such investment once political conditions stabilise.From a market perspective, the potential recovery of Venezuelan oil production, if combined with already ample supply from the United States and OPEC+ stance, points toward a prolonged period of relatively low and range-bound oil prices. In such environment, oil is likely to function as a stable, cost-based input that supports global growth, particularly in emerging and manufacturing-intensive economies.At the same time, global energy demand is entering a new phase of expansion. The rapid deployment of artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing, and hyperscale data centres is significantly increasing baseload electricity demand. Unlike traditional industrial cycles, AI-related energy consumption is continuous, power-intensive, and geographically concentrated, placing stress on grids rather than oil supply chains. This dynamic is accelerating capital flows into power generation, grid infrastructure, and energy storage rather than upstream oil exploration.Investment opportunities are increasingly bifurcated because of that. On one side, traditional oil and gas investments are shifting toward energy efficiency, cost leadership, and brownfield optimisation. In a low-price environment, only producers with strong balance sheets, advanced extraction technologies, and low breakeven costs are likely to generate sustainable returns. Capital expenditure is expected to remain disciplined, favouring incremental capacity expansion over large-scale greenfield projects.On the other side, structural capital is flowing toward the energy systems that enable digital transformation. Renewable energy, nuclear power extensions, natural gas as a transition fuel, and grid modernisation are emerging as strategic beneficiaries of AI-driven demand growth. Data centres are increasingly co-located with renewable assets, long-term power purchase agreements, and energy storage solutions to ensure cost stability and regulatory compliance. For institutional investors, this environment favours a more selective and thematic approach. Exposure to energy markets is likely to outperform when aligned with electrification, digital infrastructure, and energy security rather than pure commodity price bets. In this context, geopolitical events such as the temporary control of Venezuela matter less for their immediate price impact and more for how they reinforce long-term supply stability and monetary order, particularly through the continued dominance of USD-denominated energy trade.In EBC’s view, the coming decade will be defined not by energy scarcity, but by energy allocation. Capital will increasingly flow to systems that can deliver reliable, scalable, and cleaner power for a data-driven global economy. Investors who recognise this shift early—balancing legacy energy exposure with forward-looking infrastructure and technology-linked assets—will be better positioned to navigate a world where oil abundance and energy demand expansion coexist.For more analysis from EBC, visit: www.ebc.com.Disclaimer: This material is for information only and does not constitute a recommendation or advice from EBC Financial Group and all its entities ("EBC"). Trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Before trading, you should carefully consider your trading objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and consult an independent financial advisor if necessary. Statistics or past investment performance are not a guarantee of future performance. EBC is not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.About EBC Financial Group Founded in London, EBC Financial Group (“EBC”) is a global brand known for its expertise in financial brokerage and asset management. Through its regulated entities operating across major financial jurisdictions—including the UK, Australia, the Cayman Islands, Mauritius, South Africa and others—EBC enables retail, professional, and institutional investors to access global markets and trading opportunities, including currencies, commodities, CFDs and more. Trusted by investors in over 100 countries and honoured with global awards including multiple year recognition from World Finance, EBC is widely regarded as one of the world’s best brokers with titles including Best Trading Platform and Most Trusted Broker. With its strong regulatory standing and commitment to transparency, EBC has also been consistently ranked among the top brokers—trusted for its ability to deliver secure, innovative, and client-first trading solutions across competitive international markets. EBC’s subsidiaries are licensed and regulated within their respective jurisdictions. EBC Financial Group (UK) Limited is regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA); EBC Financial Group (Cayman) Limited is regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA); EBC Financial Group (Australia) Pty Ltd, and EBC Asset Management Pty Ltd are regulated by Australia's Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC); EBC Financial (MU) Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Commission Mauritius (FSC); EBC Financial Group SA (Pty) Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA). At the core of EBC are a team of industry veterans with over 40 years of experience in major financial institutions. Having navigated key economic cycles from the Plaza Accord and 2015 Swiss franc crisis to the market upheavals of the COVID-19 pandemic. We foster a culture where integrity, respect, and client asset security are paramount, ensuring that every investor relationship is handled with the utmost seriousness it deserves. EBC is a proud official foreign exchange partner of FC Barcelona and continues to drive impactful partnerships to empower communities – namely through the UN Foundation’s United to Beat Malaria initiative, Department of Economics at the University of Oxford, and a diverse range of partners to champion initiatives in global health, economics, education, and sustainability. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

It looks like geopolitics is back on the menu as we look to the day ahead. From the man himself:"The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Militarily, without the vast power of the United States, much of which I built during my first term, and am now bringing to a new and even higher level, NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent - Not even close! They know that, and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES. Anything less than that is unacceptable. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT"What a time to be alive when world leaders start talking about countries and territories ever so trivially, as though like a kid talking about toys.With Nvidia also in the microscope as China bans its H200 chips, it's going to be a bumpy start for US stocks later at the open. S&P 500 futures are already down 0.4% on the day now with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% and Dow futures down 0.3%.Circling back to geopolitics, it's not just Greenland in the picture at the moment. Trump also has his eyes on Iran and that is also drawing plenty of flak from other big nations. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's been quite the trade in precious metals over the last six months especially. You would think that we'll be meeting a cooling point soon but even until today, things continue to run hot for both gold and silver. But if you've been watching things closely, or even loosely for that matter, you'll surely notice that silver has been in much more scintillating form as compared to gold.Since the end of July last year, silver has gained by over 145% until now. As for gold, it has posted gains of "only" just over 40% since that same time period.Now, the fundamental factors driving the rally in both precious metals do share some similarities. That being the case of geopolitical uncertainty and currency debasement fears, well mostly the latter I would say. And silver is typically by extension the more "volatile" or "risky" little brother to gold. One can think of it as the supposed "poor man's gold".But amid a structural supply deficit, it has basically sent things into overdrive and just about time. It's been five straight years already that silver is facing a supply deficit, with demand consistently outstripping mine production. So, that's one key factor driving the surge as we continue the AI and green transition globally.In turn, that is now seeing a massive narrowing in the gold-to-silver ratio - which is on approach to the 50.0 mark. That's the lowest point since 2013.When it comes to gold and silver, there are very few established trading axioms in general. You can point to your fundamentals, technicals, and seasonal factors. But outside of that, there's not too much else.The gold-to-silver ratio though is one that some traders and investors do look at and it is starting to present a very interesting situation to start the year.Most would point to the 80/60 rule when it comes to the ratio, as noted above. However, there are some that would argue that the rule is closer towards 80/50. And if you want to go by the former, we're sitting quite close by to the point where the narrative of the story suggests that "silver is overvalued" or "gold is undervalued".The point to be made here is not that market players are undervaluing gold, not by the littlest bit. As mentioned above, gold itself has also risen by over 40% in the last six months or so. And for any asset class, that's an incredible run on its own merit.The thing to be mindful of here is that when something moves in a straight line too quickly, the pullbacks can be just as violent. Something, something Icarus flying too close to the sun.So while the silver rally is quite something to behold in starting the new year and moving above $90 today, just be mindful that the pace of the rally is starting to challenge some trading axioms and comfort boundaries.In that lieu, any retracements in precious metals look likely to punish silver much more than it would gold. That is if you are to go by the mean reversion theory tied to the gold-to-silver ratio.From a fundamental standpoint, the stars are continuing to stay aligned for gold and silver to stay hot over the medium-term. But as always with consensus trades, there's a certain element of danger when it comes to too one-sided positioning. And that is the pullbacks, whenever and however they come, can be sharp and violent.The 9% dip on 29 December already offered a bit of a fair warning. The next one that comes could be even more brutal. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Japanese officials were out in force today trying to smooth out the recent selloff in the Japanese Yen. We got the Finance Minister Katayama saying that they would take appropriate action against excessive forex moves without excluding any option and that she had deep talks on the matter with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.We then got the comment from the Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura doubling down on the verbal intervention by reiterating that would take appropriate action against excessive moves and that they are not ruling out any options.Intervention worries have been increasing in the past days after USD/JPY broke above the 158.00 level and Japanese officials increased their verbal intervention. In 2024, we got two strong interventions around the 160.00 level. Given the fact that we touched the 159.45 level yesterday and the intensification of Japanese officials' "jawboning", traders are starting to get more cautious on further upside.Moreover, Japanese PM Takaichi confirmed the intention to dissolve parliament at the next regular session calling a snap election in February. This has led to a bit of a "sell the fact" reaction in the market after traders "bought the rumor" on Friday when we got the first report from Yomiuri.Unfortunately, this might not stop the depreciation in the Japanese Yen yet because the fundamentals remain unfavorable for the currency amid expansionary fiscal policy and the BoJ's slow monetary policy normalisation keeping real rates in the negative territory, This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trade Tech Solutions Recognized as Leading Prop Firm Tech ProviderThe prop trading technology industry is rapidly consolidating. While many firms once built their own infrastructure, today’s founders realize that scalable growth demands smarter partnerships. Trade Tech Solutions has emerged as the trusted backbone for more than 70 prop firms - including multiple top 10 prop firms - globally, serving the forex, crypto and futures industries alike.The company was recently honored with two major awards at the UF AWARDS APAC 2025, held during the iFX EXPO in Hong Kong: Best Prop Firm Tech Provider – APACMost Innovative Prop Firm Tech Provider – APACThese recognitions reflect Trade Tech Solutions’ deep product evolution, platform flexibility, and the scale of its rapidly growing client base.A Milestone Worth Celebrating: 70+ Firms and CountingTrade Tech Solutions now powers over 70 active prop firms, including top-performing brands, fast-scaling startups, and institutional-grade operations handling hundreds of thousands of active traders. This achievement isn’t just about numbers, it confirms the firm’s capability to deliver secure, scalable, and modular infrastructure that adapts to any prop firm model.Version 4.0: Building the Infrastructure of the FutureTo meet the growing demand for automation and risk control, Trade Tech Solutions recently launched Version 4.0, its most robust update yet.Key Innovations:Multi-layered risk controls: Firms can set global limits, challenge-specific rules, and trader-level parameters with real-time automation.New Built-in Affiliate System: Customize your affiliates’ compensation plans, track referrals, calculate commissions, and boost user engagement - without any third-party integrationNew Reward System: Customize the activities, point allocations, and incentives you want to offer to your prop firm users. New Competitions’ Infrastructure: Launch and manage unlimited trading competitions directly from the admin panel with real-time leaderboards, performance tracking, and automated prize distribution. Designs updates: new designs are now available for all Trade Tech Solutions clients. Granular staff roles: Limit access to risk tools, payouts, or account settings based on job role, enhancing both efficiency and security.All features are fully modular and support seamless operation across major trading platforms including MetaTrader5 (MT5), MT4, TradeLocker, CTrader, MatchTrader, DxTrade, Volumetrica, Tradovate Prop, NinjaTrader Prop, Rithmic, Quantower, Atas, ProjectX, DeepCharts and DeepMap. Firms can offer any trading platform without having to rebuild their technology infrastructure.Automating Without Losing ControlProp firms want automation, but not at the expense of oversight. Trade Tech Solutions has designed its workflows to balance both.Suspicious trader behaviors, including copy trading, hedging/inverse trading, news trading, and IP address anomalies, are automatically detected and flagged.Risk violations trigger automatic actions based on pre-defined rules.KYC integrations with partners like Rise and Veriff enable a smooth, automated verification process.Semi-automated payouts ensure trader eligibility is processed automatically, while the final “green light” for payout remains under human review.All systems are hosted on AWS infrastructure with real-time autoscaling and Cloudflare DDoS protection to ensure security and uptime during even the most demanding launch periods.Migration-Friendly: Rapid Migrations with Minimal DowntimeSwitching tech providers can be disruptive, but Trade Tech Solutions has built a migration framework designed to scale. Entire databases, dashboards, and account histories are migrated over a single weekend. Traders log in on Monday to find their data intact, credentials active, performance history preserved, and access to an upgraded user dashboard with an improved overall user experience.How Prop Firms Boost Users Retention and Revenue with TTS Reward SystemClients adopting Trade Tech Solutions report faster onboarding, fewer manual errors, and stronger user retention. The platform also offers a rewards system that increases trader engagement. Traders earn points or credits based on activity, which firms redeem for incentives such as reduced fees, improved challenge conditions, access to free challenges, and other customizable prizes. Every company using the rewards system has reported a 25% increase in revenue from the first month of implementation. By aligning cutting-edge technology with deep operational insight, Trade Tech Solutions helps firms scale without friction. Whether you’re a new founder or an established firm moving from legacy systems, the TTS platform is designed to grow with your business as it evolves.About Trade Tech SolutionsTrade Tech Solutions is a prop firm technology provider founded in 2023. The company delivers end-to-end infrastructure for more than 70 prop firms operating in forex, CFD, crypto and futures markets. The platform covers evaluation programs, advanced risk tools, automation, affiliate management, CRM integrations, payment connections and detailed risk reports.The technology supports multiple top-10 prop firms and hundreds of thousands of active users each month. The platform integrates with all major trading platforms and completes large-scale migrations over single weekends when necessary.Prop firms and brokerages interested in learning how to open or migrate their Prop Firm in less than 15 days, should visit this page and Book a demo with the TTS team.Disclaimer: Trade Tech Solutions provides technology solutions only and does not offer investment, brokerage or trading services. Trading leveraged products such as forex, CFDs, cryptocurrencies and futures involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Prop firms using the technology remain fully responsible for their own regulatory obligations and for assessing the suitability and risk profile of their traders. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday following the soft US core inflation data but the initial moves were eventually faded and the greenback gained. It’s hard to explain such a price action but we got also renewed Trump’s threats against Iran following the US CPI report which weighed on the risk sentiment and could have been the reason for the comeback.In terms of market pricing, traders firmed up bets on Fed rate cuts with the total easing by year-end increasing to 54 bps from 52 bps before the CPI release. Fed members continue to support the current patient and data-dependent stance. The outlook for the USD remains neutral/bearish for now.Today, the focus will be on a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. If tariffs get struck down, we might see general risk on sentiment as initial reaction and that could weigh on the US Dollar in the short-term. On the other hand, if tariffs are kept in place, it shouldn't change much given that the market got already used to tariffs.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB remains in a neutral stance reaffirming its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to policy decisions. ECB members continue to repeat that the current policy is appropriate, and they won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from their 2% target. The data has been supporting the central bank’s neutral stance, with inflation data recently surprising to the downside.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD rallied into the key 1.17 resistance after the DOJ subpoena news but eventually erased all the gains as the sellers piled in to position for new lows. The price remains confined between the 1.1615 level and the trendline. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to open the door for a move into the 1.18 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe given that the only key technical levels remain the trendline and the 1.1615 level. We need to zoom in to see some more details.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the major trendline targeting a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the November US Retail Sales and US PPI reports, so it’s going to be old data. The market will likely focus on the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan's Nippon Ishin party leader Yoshimura is out confirming that Takaichi will dissolve the lower house of parliament and call for a snap election. From before: Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament's lower houseYoshimura adds that Takaichi will announce more details on that on Monday, 19 January.As mentioned in the linked post, the move here is mostly to shore up support and increase the number of ruling coalition seats while her support ratings remain high. All that of course before opposition lawmakers start piling on the questions on her policy setting when the Diet session begins. And the ongoing feud between Japan and China won't make things easy for her, as it offers up free ammunition for other lawmakers to question her leadership.The next ordinary Diet session will take place on 23 January and it would mark the first time since then that the lower house is dissolved at the very start of the calendar year.The question now then becomes when will the snap election be called? The likely dates are either 8 February or 15 February at this juncture.Update: Japan prime minister Takaichi has come out to confirm that parliament will be dissolved at the start of the ordinary Diet session. She will be making an announcement with more details on 19 January next week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday following the soft US core inflation data but the initial moves were eventually faded and the greenback gained. It’s hard to explain such a price action but we got also renewed Trump’s threats against Iran following the US CPI report which weighed on the risk sentiment and could have been the reason for the comeback.In terms of market pricing, traders firmed up bets on Fed rate cuts with the total easing by year-end increasing to 54 bps from 52 bps before the CPI release. Fed members continue to support the current patient and data-dependent stance. The outlook for the USD remains neutral/bearish for now.Today, the focus will be on a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. If tariffs get struck down, we might see general risk on sentiment as initial reaction and that could weigh on the US Dollar in the short-term, while also giving the Indian Rupee a boost. On the other hand, if tariffs are kept in place, it shouldn't change much given that the market got already used to tariffs. INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, but the momentum has been less aggressive recently compared to last year. The suspected RBI’s interventions might be capping the upside.The latest India’s annual inflation rate increased to 1.33% in December compared to 0.71% in November. This is still way below the RBI’s 4% target but closer to the bottom of their tolerance band at 2%. Traders don’t expect the RBI to deliver another rate cut at the upcoming meeting in February. On the trade front, traders are watching for potential tariff hikes on India after Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran as the US President continues to put pressure on the regime. India has been among the largest Iran’s trade partners in recent years, so traders are watching for the risk of another escalation.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR is slowly approaching the key resistance around the 90.40 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for drop back into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the upper bound of the channel around the 92.00 handle.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent choppy price action with a bounce near the 89.70 support as dip-buyers piled in quickly after the suspected RBI’s intervention. We might now get stuck in this range between the 89.70 support and the 90.40 resistance. The market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities around the 89.70 support or pile in on a breakout, while the sellers will continue to step in around the resistance or wait for a downside breakout.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the November US Retail Sales and US PPI reports, so it’s going to be old data. The market will likely focus on the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Mimura is out saying that:Recently seeing one-sided rapid moves in the marketExtremely concerned about forex movesWill take appropriate action against excessive moves, not ruling out any optionsDon't see any economic fundamentals that back recent moves in the Japanese yenVolatility is the biggest problemBoth a strong yen and weak yen have their respective merits and demeritsHearing demerits of a weak yen on import costs through various channelsUSD/JPY drops a little to 158.67 on the comments here but is back up to be around 158.80 at the moment, down 0.2% on the day. Amid the barrage of verbal intervention from Tokyo officials during the session, the pair has dropped off from about 159.20 levels at the start of the session at least.In case you missed it, Japan finance minister Katayama even made an oddly specific comment about the price movement in the currency here. He specifically singled out the drop in the yen during last Friday on 9 January as being not in line with "fundamentals".As argued in the linked post, it's definitely an interesting one whichever way you want to look at it. The odds of intervention now look to be rising just as USD/JPY feels an inevitable pull to probe the 160.00 mark earlier today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's certainly an interesting one. It was among a barrage of comments in which you'd typically see Tokyo officials attempt to jawbone or verbally intervene with the Japanese yen currency. Katayama said that:Will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves without excluding any optionHad deep talks on the matter with US Treasury secretary BessentSudden moves seen on 9 January do not reflect fundamentalsLet's take a look at the USD/JPY price action for that particular date:The pair did post just over 100 pips of gains last Friday but it's not like that hasn't happened in recent times. In the past three months dating back to October, the pair has posted over 100 pips in daily gains for a total of six times.However, perhaps it was a case that the November and December highs were held back just under the 158.00 level previously. And last Friday, we saw price action breach that in leading to this week's push to a fresh one-year high at the start of the week. That before a further climb to test waters above 159.00 today - the highest since July 2024.In some sense, there's a certain inevitability now that we're to see the pair at least probe the 160.00 mark.But again, it's funny that he singles out the price action on 9 January as being not in line with the "fundamentals". If you want to argue it that way, it's pretty much the whole rally since October itself. That as the basics of the rally stems from the Takaichi trade and nothing to do with rate differentials whatsoever.That unless Katayama wants to admit that they do have a pain threshold that is soon to be reached. And the first trigger was the break of the 158.00 threshold on Friday last week. Intervention knocking on the door next? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Hottest question of the crypto market now: Is the crypto bull run over?When prices dip, panic often sets in. However, seasoned investors know that bull runs rarely end overnight. Instead, they cool, weaken, and unwind systematically.To tell if bullrun is over you can’t rely only on your gut — you also need data. Be picky, watch for: miner behavior, ETF flows, macro trends, and on-chain signals. This guide breaks down exactly how to know if a bull run is ending without guessing, providing a framework to analyze the market like a pro.First — What Is a «Bull Run» in Crypto and when does it happens?Before analyzing the end, we must define the event. A crypto bull run is a sustained period where prices generally trend upward.Imagine a crowded store where everyone wants to buy the same toy. Prices go up because demand is high and supply is limited. Everyone feels optimistic, new money floods in, and liquidity (available cash) increases.During this time, miners earn more revenue, and retail investors return to the market. But eventually, the store gets too expensive, buyers run out of money, and the cycle shifts.Mini GlossaryBull Market: Prices trending up over a long period.Bear Market: Prices trending down; pessimism rules.Accumulation: Smart money buying quietly before prices rise.Distribution: Smart money selling gradually to lock in profits.Signs a Crypto Bull Run May Be Ending To perform a Bitcoin bull run analysis, you need to watch specific categories of data.1. Miner Behavior (The Most Reliable Signal)Miners are the backbone of the network. Their behavior is often the canary in the coal mine.Miner Selling Increases: Miners have bills to pay (electricity, hardware). When they start selling massive amounts of Bitcoin, it creates miner selling pressure. Large outflows from miner wallets to exchanges are a bearish signal.Difficulty Rises Sharply: When the Bitcoin difficulty trend shoots up, it means more miners are joining the race. This makes it harder to earn BTC. If the price doesn't keep rising to match this difficulty, miners face a squeeze.Hashrate Peaks: The Bitcoin hashrate indicator shows the total power in the network. Historically, when hashrate hits all-time highs after a huge rally, smart miners often start distributing coins to hedge against a future drop.If you are interested in how this mechanics works on the ground level, check out this guide on https://gomining.com/blog/how-to-mine-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide to understand the cost pressures miners face.2. ETF Flows ReverseSource: sosovalue.comIn the modern era, ETF inflows and outflows are critical. Bull runs are often fueled by institutional buying.Inflows: Money entering ETFs = Bullish.Outflows: Consistent days or weeks of money leaving ETFs = signs the bull market is weakening.3. Macro Conditions Shift BearishCrypto macro analysis is essential. Crypto does not exist in a bubble.Interest Rates: If rates rise, borrowing money becomes expensive. Speculative assets like crypto are usually the first to be sold.Strong USD: A strengthening dollar often pushes Bitcoin prices down.4. Crypto Whales Start DistributingWhale accumulation vs distribution is a classic indicator.Accumulation: Whales buying.Distribution: Whales moving Bitcoin to exchanges to sell.If you see whales selling while retail investors (regular people) are panic-buying, it is a major warning sign.5. Crypto Trading Leverage Builds Up When everyone thinks the market can only go up, they borrow money to bet on it (leverage). When crypto liquidity cycles hit a peak, a small price drop can trigger a "liquidation cascade," causing a rapid crash that marks the end of the trend.6. Retail Euphoria PeaksWhen your taxi driver, barber, and grandmother are all asking how to buy Dogecoin, the top is usually near. This "Euphoria" phase usually marks the final stage of a crypto market cycle explained by history.7. On-Chain Signals Flash RedExchange Inflows: More Bitcoin moving onto exchanges usually means people are preparing to sell.Dormant Coins Wake Up: When coins that haven't moved for 5 years suddenly move, it suggests long-term holders are cashing out.The 4 Types of Crypto Bull Run EndingsWhat ends crypto bull markets? It isn't always a crash.Soft Peak: Volume decreases, buying pressure fades, and prices slowly drift lower without a dramatic crash.Blow-Off Top: The price goes vertical , followed by a violent, immediate crash. This is common in historic bull run patterns.Double Top: The price hits a high, drops, tries to hit it again but fails, and then reverses permanently.ETF-Driven Prolonged Cycle: A new theory for 2025. Institutional money might smooth out the volatility, making the cycle last longer but with smaller peaks.Crypto Miner Indicators Beginners Should TrackTo determine is Bitcoin bull market over, keep an eye on these specific metrics:Miner Reserve Chart: This tracks how much Bitcoin is held in miner wallets. If the line goes down sharply, miner capitulation or profit-taking is happening.Hash Ribbons: A technical indicator that signals miner stress. When miners turn off machines because it's too expensive to run them, it signals a market bottom. Conversely, massive expansion can signal a top.Miner Outflow to Exchanges: Spikes in this metric indicate immediate selling intent.Cost to Mine 1 BTC: If the price of Bitcoin drops near the cost of production, miners may be forced to sell to stay solvent, triggering miner behavior in market tops that suppresses price.On-Chain Metrics That Help Identify Crypto Bull-Run WeaknessThese on-chain market signals act like a health check for the network:MVRV Ratio: Compares the market value to the realized value. High MVRV (above 3.5) historically signals a market top.Funding Rates: If traders are paying exorbitant fees to keep "Long" positions open, the market is overheated.Realized Profit: When the network sees massive spikes in realized profit, it means the majority of holders are cashing out.Historical Examples of Crypto Bull Run EndingsUnderstanding why crypto bull runs end requires looking at history:2013 Top: A parabolic rise ended by massive miner selling and regulatory bans.2017 Top: Driven by ICO mania and retail euphoria. Ended in a classic "Blow-Off Top" where Bitcoin dropped 80% in a year.2021 Tops: A "Double Top" structure. The first peak was halted by a China mining ban, and the second peak was an unwinding of leverage.A Beginner Framework: How to Know Whether the Crypto Bull Run Might Be EndingIf you are asking how to know if crypto bull run is over, use this checklist:Step 1 — Check Miner Behavior: Are miner reserves dropping? Is Bitcoin difficulty trend decoupling from price?Step 2 — Check ETF Flows: Have we seen 5+ days of net outflows?Step 3 — Check Macro: Is the central bank tightening liquidity?Step 4 — Check On-Chain: Are whales sending coins to exchanges?Step 5 — Check Sentiment: Is everyone screaming "Bitcoin to $1M" and buying meme coins?Step 6 — Check Price Structure: Did the price go vertical and then crash on high volume?What Beginners Should NOT DoPanic-selling: Selling the moment you see a red candle.FOMO-buying dips: Buying aggressively without checking if the trend has reversed.Using leverage: Trying to short the market to make money back.Listening to influencers: Relying on "Twitter gurus" instead of Bitcoin top indicators.What Beginners CAN DoDollar-Cost Average (DCA): Smooth out your entry and exit prices.Track Data: Watch Bitcoin halving cycle progress and miner stats.Study Macro: Understand how interest rates impact your portfolio.Diversify: Don't hold only volatile assets.ConclusionSo, is the crypto bull run over? The answer is never a simple yes or no — it is a spectrum.Bull runs don't die of old age; they are killed by miner selling pressure, macro liquidity tightening, and whale distribution. By tracking these signals rather than listening to hype, you can spot what triggers crypto market reversals before the crowd does.Remember: Knowledge removes fear. Use these frameworks to navigate the crypto bull run ending safely and protect your portfolio.FAQ1. What is the most reliable indicator of a bull run ending? No single indicator is perfect, but a combination of miner capitulation (selling reserves) and the MVRV ratio (market overvaluation) has historically been very accurate.2. How do miners affect bull runs? Miners provide selling pressure. When they sell to cover costs or take profits, they add supply to the market. If demand cannot absorb this supply, the price drops.3. What is a "Blow-Off Top"? This is a chart pattern where the price goes up vertically in a short time (Euphoria) and then crashes immediately on high volume. It often marks the end of a cycle.4. How long do crypto bear markets last? Historically, crypto bear markets (the period after the bull run ends) last between 12 to 24 months, usually leading up to the next Bitcoin halving cycle. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.