Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 27 Today's session marked the interest payment from Markets to borrowed tranquility throughout the beginning of this week. And the price is hefty. After the first few trading days of the week, it could have been easy to say that blue skies are ahead and current prices are gifts that any investor would take, amid historically elevated Markets.But there is no free lunch in this economy, and Participants made global assets pay for this fragile rebound. President Trump welcomed Investors with a soft message at the beginning of the week, then delivered a sharp shift in tone regarding Iran in his first weekly Truth Social Post.A 3% prompt rally across all Stock Markets and overall Markets followed, accompanied by a drop in WTI to $88, but the effect was merely temporary; the slow, then accelerating, grind higher that followed in Black Gold reshaped this positive trajectory for the worse.Gradually, people realized that the optimism from the White House would not have been realistic enough to bring about a real end to the ongoing conflict. As the week ended with further fears of a prolonged conflict, Stocks got hit with a nasty hangover. S&P 500 4H Chart (CFD) – Source: TradingView After all, without a concrete resolution to the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz and a real, long-term guarantee that the conflict won't escalate further, Markets cannot rally.Traders need trust to return to persistent buying of already elevated valuations. Particularly given that Wall Street fiercely held the initial rise in WTI and the US Dollar, it could only be the beginning of much more pain ahead.Of course, a return to positive sentiment will only be contingent on the conflict not extending much longer, as more disruptions in Oil prices can now be expected to precede a large drag on global economies.It could be too early to say that inflation effects will actually lead to Central Bank hikes, something that Markets fear like the Boogieman – but even if they don't, the strain on economies from higher petrol prices amid a still-growing but stagnating economy could be too much to hold for Equity bulls.At least, Metals are rebounding, with Markets now assuming this pain could get deeper and harsher, triggering the need for some safe havens.We will know more over the weekend. The way to know more is to watch how Bitcoin moves, as other Markets will be closed. If you see green, a deal could really be drawing.If you see large red prints, assume that the war could last at least a few more weeks beyond the announced deadline. Check out our recent Bitcoin analysis to learn more on such catalysts and levels of interest. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsStocks reach new lows as War goes on – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookGold (XAU/USD) bounces despite the Oil rally, a first since the US-Iran War – In-depth outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 27, 2026 Most of the moves in Stock Markets aggravated as the session went on and the bloodshed continued.Utilities and Industrials were outperformers but they ceded to the general pressure with only Energy Stocks bouncing. Tech, Finance and Mag 7s dragged Equities in today's interest paying selloff.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The asset map shows a classic inflation repricing picture, with Cryptos and Stocks, particularly the highest Beta-assets, hurting the most in another harsh selloff.Bonds once again took a turn to the downside, unable to withhold the pressure of WTI retaking $100 – Metals are once again shining as the true safe-havens in the latest Market turn.Of course, WTI and its US Dollar peer are the two leaders of the pack – Monday will be very interesting as this could just be the beginning of a much tougher move.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 27, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs As per usual on strong Oil session, the US Dollar ends up on top with the Canadian Dollar doing its best to catch up.On the other hand, all other currencies suffered on the day – Taking a step back, the extent of FX movement was still relatively contained.A look at Economic data releasing over the weekend and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Next week will be a much heavier one for Macro, with Inflation reports coming for the Eurozone and Japan to start the week.Those who enjoy Fedspeak will have to log in to two of the most important speakers at the Fed: Mr Powell at 10:30 (ET) and Fed's Williams at 16:30 (ET) – Expect both speeches to be large movers for the US Dollar and rate expectations!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Pullback complete, bullish structure emerging: WTI corrected 17% from $102.25 to $85.50 but has stabilised above its 20-day moving average, reclaimed $93.70, and is now positioned to retest the $102.25 resistance.Fundamentals support upside pressure: Deepening backwardation (-21.74) signals tightening near-term supply amid escalating US–Iran tensions, reinforcing upward pressure on crude prices.Breakout levels to watch: A sustained move above $102.25 could trigger a fresh bullish leg toward $111–$124, while a break below $85.50 would invalidate the bullish view and expose downside toward the $81–$73 zone. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil rally almost reached $102.25, risk of minor setback towards $88.36,” published on 16 March 2026.The price actions of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have staged the expected minor corrective pullback of 17% from its key $102.25 near-term range resistance after a retest on Monday, 23 March 2026, at the start of the London session to hit an intraday low of $85.50 at mid-London session on the same day due US President Trump’s “optimistic claims” that US and Iran are in the process of negotiating an immediate ceasefire deal.Thereafter, the West Texas Oil CFD traded sideways above its 20-day moving average as Iran rejected the US’s ceasefire proposal and continued to strike the Gulf states’ key installations as the US-Iran war entered its 28th day.In addition, conflicting messages are being sent out from the US White House Administration. US President Trump has extended by 10 days his pledge to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy-producing sites and added that the “negotiation talks are going very well”.On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Pentagon is considering sending additional troops, as many as 10,000, to the Middle East, on top of the already deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Hence, increasing the odds of a US ground invasion into Iranian soil as soon as this weekend.Right now, several technical factors are suggesting the potential start of a new bullish up move sequence for West Texas crude oil at this juncture.WTI calendar spread remains in negative territory Fig. 1: WTI crude oil term structure (12-month forward minus spot rate) as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The WTI crude oil calendar spread, defined as the difference between the 12-month forward price and the spot price, serves as a gauge of the market’s structural conditions.A positive spread (contango) reflects a typical environment where futures trade at a premium to spot, factoring in storage and transportation costs.In contrast, a negative spread (backwardation) signals near-term supply tightness, with strong prompt demand pushing spot prices above futures.At the time of writing, the spread has deepened into backwardation at -21.74, marking its most negative level since 6 March 2026 (-23.92) on the onset of the ongoing US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).Hence, near-term prices of WTI crude oil are likely to face further upside pressure.Let’s switch our attention to the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil.WTI Crude Oil – Imminent potential bullish breakout above $102.25 minor range top Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor price structure of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) has turned more constructive over the past four sessions, supported by its ability to hold above a rising 20-day moving average.On Thursday, 26 March 2026, it has cleared above its $93.70 near-term resistance and is en route to retest its $102.25 minor range resistance in place since 16 March 2026.Watch the $88.36/85.50 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the current bullish momentum, and a clearance above $102.25 increases the odds of a fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistances at $111.28, $116.56/119.54, and $124.40 (see Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below $85.50 invalidates the bullish scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at $81.85, $77.26/76.83, and $73.38 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI crude oil Price actions remain above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates that the medium-term uptrend phase remains intact.The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline. This latest positive observation has occurred above its prior bullish breakout above its former key descending resistance on Thursday, 26 March 2026. An indication of a change of trend in the West Texas Oil CFD, from sideways to a minor bullish trend. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar remains strong near multi-month highs, driven by safe-haven demandOil prices cooled slightly this week after a temporary extension of an ultimatum regarding strikes on Iranian energy facilities, though WTI and Brent crude remain historically elevated.Market participants will watch closely monitoring the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reportMost Read: GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataAsian markets showed signs of stabilization on Friday as a brief reprieve in Middle East tensions allowed shares to recover from their initial lows.While the global economy remains under pressure from a persistent energy crunch, investor sentiment was bolstered by US President Donald Trump's decision to extend an ultimatum regarding strikes on Iranian infrastructure. By pushing the deadline back an additional 10 days, following previous extensions, the administration provided a temporary cooling effect on oil prices.Despite this slight recovery, the regional outlook remained largely negative. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) sat 0.7% lower on the day, contributing to a 2.3% loss for the week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline.Japan’s Nikkei managed to weather the volatility better than its peers, ending the week with a marginal 0.3% gain despite a flat performance on Friday.In contrast, Chinese markets outperformed the broader region. Both the CSI300 blue-chip index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.7%, driven by reports of potential policy shifts in Beijing.According to sources, the Chinese government is weighing a plan to ease shareholding restrictions for major investors. This move is intended to provide commercial banks with more flexible capital-raising options as they navigate a broader domestic economic slowdown.UK retail sales falls in February British retail performance experienced a moderate pullback in February 2026, with sales volumes dipping 0.4% month-on-month. While this represented the first decline in three months, the figure was notably more resilient than the 0.7% drop analysts had anticipated.This cooling period followed a robust, upwardly revised 2% surge in January, suggesting a natural stabilization after a period of high consumer activity.Industry experts attributed the slump largely to unseasonably wet weather, which stifled footfall at supermarkets and household goods retailers.Additionally, online and non-store retailers saw a slight decrease in volume, as many consumers had reportedly front-loaded their spending in January to capitalize on aggressive seasonal discounts. This shift in timing, combined with the dampening effect of heavy rainfall, created a temporary lull in the retail sector’s momentum.Despite the monthly contraction, the broader data suggests a degree of underlying strength, though the pace of growth is slowing.On an annual basis, retail volumes grew by 2.5%, a significant step down from the 4.8% increase seen in January. When looking at the three-month period ending in February, sales remained up by 0.7%.However, retailers remain cautious as they look toward the horizon, facing the dual headwinds of escalating energy costs and continued geopolitical instability.European shares edge lower European equity markets retreated slightly on Friday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both dipping approximately 0.2%. The early optimism sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the pause on strikes against Iranian energy facilities began to evaporate as the reality of high energy costs set in.While the deadline for negotiations has been pushed back 10 days to April 6, the underlying pressure of rising oil prices continues to stoke global inflation fears, weighing heavily on investor sentiment.The tangible impact of the conflict was evidenced by fresh economic data from Spain, where preliminary March estimates showed inflation surging to its highest level since 2024. Monthly prices in Spain jumped by 1%, the sharpest spike since 2022 driven primarily by energy disruptions linked to the war with Iran.This inflationary pressure led to a mixed performance among major European players; industrial and financial heavyweights like Siemens (-1.4%), ASML Holding (-1%), and HSBC Holdings (-0.8%) saw declines, while Shell also slipped 0.3%.Despite the lackluster end to the week, the broader European markets managed to secure a positive weekly performance. Defensive and tech-heavy stocks provided some insulation, with AstraZeneca jumping 3.2% and SAP rising 1.4%.These gains helped the STOXX 50 finish the week up 1.1%, while the STOXX 600 recorded a total weekly increase of 1.3%, showing that regional indices remain resilient even as geopolitical uncertainty lingers.Commodity markets Despite the intense volatility seen since the onset of the conflict on February 28, oil prices cooled slightly this week as markets reacted to the latest diplomatic extensions. WTI futures, which have surged 40% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, recorded a 4.6% weekly decline. Similarly, Brent crude, up more than 48% since the start of the war, retreated by 4% over the same period. While these prices remain historically elevated, the temporary reprieve in hostilities provided a brief window for energy markets to stabilize.The precious metals sector saw a different dynamic on Friday, as Gold climbed 2% fueled by a softening US dollar and opportunistic bargain hunting. Despite this daily gain, the metal remains on track for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, largely due to a hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations.According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders have completely priced out any US interest rate cuts for 2026 and now see a 35% probability of a rate hike by year-end. This is a stark reversal from the pre-conflict sentiment, which had anticipated two rate cuts this year.Other industrial and precious metals also posted significant gains during Friday’s session. Spot silver jumped 3.1% to reach $70.10 per ounce, while the PGM (platinum group metals) sector showed even stronger momentum. Spot platinum surged 3.5% to $1,891.02, and palladium rose 3.3% to finish at $1,398.30.This broad-based rally in metals suggests that while energy prices took a breather, investors are still hedging against long-term inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability.How did FX markets react? The US dollar maintained its position near multi-month highs on Friday as renewed safe-haven demand drove investors toward the currency. This persistent strength is being fueled by a "higher-for-longer" outlook for energy prices, which has created an inflationary pulse strong enough to shift market expectations.Market participants are now increasingly pricing in a potential US interest rate hike by the end of the year, providing a consistent bid for the greenback amidst global uncertainty.While the dollar index softened marginally to 99.83 on Friday, it remains on a trajectory for a 2.2% monthly gain, its most significant monthly advance since July of last year.This broad strength has left other major currencies struggling to regain ground. The Japanese yen (JPY), for instance, continues to hover on the edge of the critical 160 per dollar threshold, last trading at 159.58.Other European currencies showed little signs of a meaningful recovery. The euro (EUR) managed a slight 0.1% uptick to $1.1540 as it nursed recent losses, while the British pound (GBP) remained largely stagnant at $1.3339.As the dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange landscape, the contrast between US monetary expectations and the economic pressures facing Europe and Asia remains a central theme for currency traders.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Chart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataPeace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session will be quiet today with Spanish inflation data already released. We will get the ECB CPI expectations which could shake up volatility but may not have a lasting impact on the Euro.US economic data is expected to remain secondary to the shifting headlines from the Middle East. However, market participants are closely monitoring the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 4:00 PM CET, specifically the inflation expectations component. Preliminary readings indicated a notable uptick, with one-year expectations rising to 3.6% and the five-to-ten-year outlook climbing to 3.5%.A further increase in these figures could bolster the US dollar, as it would likely push the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive "tightening camp" to ensure medium-term expectations remain anchored.The market has already begun adjusting to this inflationary pressure, with five-year and ten-year zero-coupon inflation swaps rising by 20bp and 5bp, respectively, this month. Currently, traders have priced in approximately 15bp of Federal Reserve tightening for the year. If consumer sentiment data reveals a significant jump in these expectations, market participants may more actively bet on a rate hike, a shift that would likely strengthen the dollar while simultaneously weighing on risk-sensitive assets. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - US Dollar Index (DXY) In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains well-supported, hovering near the upper boundary of its 99.00–100.00 trading range.There is potential for a further push toward the 100.25/50 area, a move that would keep risk currencies under significant pressure.As long as inflation expectations continue to drift upward, the dollar is poised to remain the primary beneficiary of this hawkish shift in monetary sentiment.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, March 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/USD is under pressure due to cautious market sentiment, USD strength stemming from Middle East ceasefire strains, and uncertainty following President Trump's delay of Iran's energy plant destruction.Technical analysis reveals a bull flag pattern on the H1 chart, suggesting a potential 100-pip rallyIf the price fails to clear the 200 SMA and breaks the 1.3320 support, a move toward the YTD low of 1.3223 is possible.Most Read: Chart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?GBP/USD edged its way lower on Thursday as hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East came under strain. Mixed reports and comments from both sides saw markets adopt a cautious approach with the USD gaining a bid as a result.Late in the day President Trump announced the delay of Iran's energy plant destruction by ten days, until April 6 at 08:00 PM Eastern Time. President Trump emphasized that talks between Washington and Tehran are going "very well" and he decided to pause at the request of the Iranian Government. Trump’s previous deadline was Friday, with the question now being whether this is genuine or another ruse ahead of the weekend? Source: TruthSocial Markets may remain concerned that the US could mount a ‘sneak attack’ over the weekend with defensive positioning and haven demand likely to catch a bid as a result. Such a scenario could weigh on GBP/USD.What do the technicals say? Looking at the technical picture and on the H1 chart below GBP/USD has edged its way lower since printing a fresh high around 1.34800 on March 23.There is a bull flag pattern in play on the H1 chart with a breakout leading to a potential 100-pip rally to the upside.Such a move does face challenges though, as price is currently trading near 1.3333, sitting just below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). There is also the 100 SMA (Blue), which is currently above the 200 SMA (Black) at around the 1.3372 handle.Both of these MAs will need to be cleared first if a rally higher and breakout of the bull flag pattern is to materialize.If the price remains below the 200 SMA (Black line) and breaks the 1.3320 support, expect a move toward the YTD low of 1.3223.GBP/USD Daily Chart, March 26, 2026 Source: TradingView UK retail sales to serve as a catalyst? Early on Friday UK retail sales data is due in what is otherwise a rather quiet day on the economic calendar front. Market consensus is for a print -0.8% MoM print with the YoY print 2.1%.A better than expected figure may provide a temporary bounce for GBP/USD but is unlikely to inspire a sustained break of the bull flag pattern. Any gains may prove temporary without a material change to overall sentiment which continues to support the greenback. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 26 It would have been unrealistic to assume that a bottom has been reached without a significant advancement in the war.Today, sentiment took a downturn as President Trump shifted his rhetoric, becoming more aggressive in response to Iran, which has, until now, refused to make concessions for a longer peace deal.In an address at the White House during the midday session, the Commander in Chief of the U.S. Army revealed that their enemy counterpart had offered substantial gifts, including a fleet of ten tankers, to facilitate the ongoing indirect negotiations in Pakistan.The issue is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is unwilling to compromise on its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its highly valued, albeit dangerous, ballistic missile program. Although Israel has begun to realize that the U.S. is prepared to conclude the conflict sooner rather than later, it is still too early to say whether a deal will be reached before the 5-day deadline (which ends on Saturday). Therefore, the possibility of a ground invasion remains a consideration, as a heavy Marine fleet is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours.A recent report from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the war may end sooner than anticipated has not been enough to invigorate market sentiment. Investors are increasingly concerned about potential escalation before any resolution.Virtually all asset classes are experiencing the impact of the uncertain market conditions, with metals down an average of 4% across the asset class, along with declines in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and bonds. Hope alone cannot do much to alleviate such an uncertain market environment.Tomorrow’s weekly close will be crucial in this regard. Any positive developments ahead of the weekend could lead to a significant rebound in global assets – This would first be observed in Crypto Markets (which remain open 24/7). Additionally, inflation expectations, which will be released tomorrow at 10:00 A.M. ET, will need to be monitored closely. Read More:Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewOptimism fades and Nasdaq burns its wings – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookChart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?Too soon for a Crypto bounce – Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 26, 2026 Today was the mark of another brutal session for Tech, decidedly struggling in 2026, dragging its main representative, the Nasdaq, at the lows of US Index performances(-2%).Meta was the main culprit but it alone did not justify the broad risk-aversion seen in Market.Producer Manufacturing also got rejected harshly from the re-escalation fears.As explored in our daily Stock Market Check, Tech had remained quite resilient while its more defensive peers struggled. But when chickens come to roost, higher-beta assets always get dragged further.Tomorrow and Monday will mark essential final tests to avoid a larger catastrophy for Wall Street.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today was a bloodbath in the Market, with the regular Petrodollar and Crude combo ravaging everything on their way, with a particular strength.This strength arises from the fact that this week's rebound was quite fragile, with sentiment remaining cloudy throughout the week – metals were hit the hardest.Their run is now quite compromised, with Gold and Silver both breaching their $4,400 and $70 psychological levels, respectively. If this continues, expect more pain ahead.The fate of Markets lies in the hands of Oil and the Strait of Hormuz.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 26, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today broadly continued the persistent rebound in the US Dollar, outperforming all its peers for the second consecutive session.Reactions to the top of the RSI range around 100.00 will have to be tracked closely – the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are struggling hard on the other hand – Watch for this as it seems to become a repetitive pattern in recent sessions.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will be focusing heavily on US Inflation expectations at 10:00 A.M, but potentially even more on communications from the Trump Administration regarding the War and the arrival of the large Marine fleet.For GBP traders, watch out for Retail Sales in the early UK morning!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been in the spotlight over the past two months, after remaining the pet peeve for FX since early 2025.With wartime, however, things can change fast and decisively: the Global Reserve has risen by 4.40% since its end-January lows in a blink.The new Fed Chair elect, Hawkish repricings, Petrodollars, and a general backing away from risky trades built up sudden demand, particularly at a time when Asset Managers were the most bearish on the USD in 14 years – and when the Market is stuck on one side of a trade, it often results in huge reversals.The Petrodollar trade, however, was the fuel for the currency Market throughout this month, and despite what seemed like a relative dissonance this week, as the tone sours again, the correlation is coming right back. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView Indeed, after cautious optimism throughout this week's trading following the announcement of the US-Iran talks, it seems that Iran is still heavily inclined to maintain its strategic advantage over the Strait of Hormuz and its ballistic missile capabilities, two of the most contentious points in the indirect talks.But the real issue for Markets is that President Trump's tone has gradually grown more pessimistic, and this coincides with the fact that the huge Marine fleet is arriving in the Arabian Sea in less than a day – so where are these mere distraction tactics?Good question as War strategy is something that us common mortals cannot fully grasp – the Art of War, legendary treatise, can help in that sort (and is also a great read for traders).Deception tactics are common, and nobody can really understand what any side has in mind.What is sure, however, is that WTI is now rebounding toward $95, the higher bound of its momentum pivot, and above the psychological level, sentiment will sour even further. WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – March 26, 2026. Source: TradingView At least, the US Dollar is enjoying this move, amid a more hesitant FX session. As further clarity is expected in the next 24 hours, consider current levels as indications of doubtful neutrality amid the ongoing war.Anything above in Oil and the Dollar implies a worsening in conditions and sentiment, which should drag into next week (+ Pessimistic)On the other hand, a return below $90 in WTI will be most welcome to investors (+ Optimistic)We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar amid resurfacing doubts. Discover:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish trend resumes below $4,620 as stagflation and oil strength weighFragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookA better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar attempted a corrective sequence as the US-Iran talks were announced, but with WTI not correcting much further, the currency still receives fundamental support.A few technical elements are developing in the Dollar Index which can help to find trades in major FX pairs:A short term, relatively flat bear-channel has developed and contained the Index movement. Traders may either use it as points of entry to long and short the US Dollar or as breakout signal – We are currently reaching its highs (99.90).Its lows are at around 98.65.A more Neutral 99.00 to 100.00 Range is holding for now – It is less responsive but more stable to watch the higher timeframe movement.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsMorning Spike 99.93 and Channel TopWeekly range highs 100.00100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support LevelsIntraday micro support 99.3098.70 to 99.00 Support (Mini Range lows)98.00 2025 SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD just broke its past month's 0.6970 to 0.7150 Major range to the downside, indicating high potential for a further correction.Fundamentals are changing for the Aussie dollar after a strong period after two consecutive hikes from the RBA, particularly after Australian CPI surprised to the downside.Failing to rebound above 0.6980 would hint at more bearish activity in the major pair.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsDec 2021 Lows 0.6970 to 0.70 Major Pivot (broken range holds above)Mini Resistance 4H MA 50 – 0.7020; Bullish above2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 Resistanc0.71867 March highsJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support Levels0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support0.69015 session lowsMicro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Mini-support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is now turning bearish, breaking its 4H 50-period MA after a double top this week and crossing below its Pivot Zone (1.1540 to 1.1570).This hints at a test around at least the 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support, which could extend further to the 1.1410 War lows if the situation deteriorates.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsImmediate resistance 1.1546Resistance 1.16250 to 1.163501.1650 to 1.17 March Resistance1.1750 mini-resistance and Channel TopResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.14101.1350 to 1.14 Support1.12 to 1.13 Next Main Support ZoneSafe Trades and keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bearish trend intact despite rebound: Gold (XAU/USD) plunged 15% to a 4-month low before a 12% rebound, but the bounce is likely a dead cat bounce, with another bearish leg expected.Stagflation & oil strength driving downside risk: Rising WTI crude oil supports a stagflation backdrop, increasing interest rate pressures, and the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing a negative correlation and downside bias.Key technical levels signal further weakness: Breach below $4,440 on Gold (XAU/USD) may trigger a move toward $4,099 and lower, while only a break above $4,620 would invalidate the bearish outlook. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support broke”, published on 19 March 2026.Since 19 March, Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the expected bearish impulsive down move sequence and plummeted by 15% to print a 4-month low of $4,099 on Monday, 23 March 2026, supported by the “stagflation fear” macro factor.Thereafter, the previous yellow metal staged a rebound of 12% to hit an intraday high of $4,603 on the backdrop of “TACO” optimism that the US White House Administration is looking to end the month-long US-Iran war, in turn, allowing passage to reopen in the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil flow choke point.Read more over here why” TACO” induced risk-on sentiment may fail to materialize this time: “Global markets swing on US–Iran War headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crude”.Right now, intermarket and technical analyses are pointing to another leg of bearish impulsive down move for Gold (XAU/USD), likely the end of the 12% corrective rebound, aka dead cat bounce from Monday’s low.A firmer WTI crude oil supports further weakness in Gold (XAU/USD) Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) & WTI crude oil futures indirect correlation as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The macro connection between WTI crude oil and Gold is stagflation risk.Higher oil prices via supply side shock (closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a lesser oil supply globally, in turn, also creating a second-order effect of lower aggregate demand as input costs of finalized goods and services get more expensive).Hence, stagflation is a deadly combination of higher prices and lower economic growth prospects in later stages. A challenging environment for central bankers as they cannot easily implement expansionary monetary policies to counter and anticipate the second-order demand destruction in a stagflation environment.Therefore, central banks are likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach, and some “inflation-fighting” central banks may turn cautiously hawkish and start to implement an interest rate hike cycle.Gold, being a non-interest income-bearing asset, will incur higher opportunity costs as interest rates rise globally, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the price actions of Gold.Since 17 February 2026, the movement of WTI crude oil futures has an indirect correlation with Gold (XAU/USD), and its 20-day rolling correlation coefficient stands at -0.5 at this time of writing (see Fig.1).The recent pull-back in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) due to “TACO jaw bowing” has managed to find support at its rising 20-day moving average.West Texas Oil CFD’s medium-term uptrend phase remains intact, a clearance above $93.70 key near-term resistance may see a further push up to retest the $102.25 intermediate range resistance in the first step (see Fig. 2).Gold (XAU/USD) - End of corrective rebound, start of new bearish leg Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $4,620 key short-term pivotal resistance on Gold (XAU/USD). A break below the $4,440 key near-term support (downside trigger level) may set off another bearish impulsive down move sequence to retest $4,167/4,099 before exposing the next supports at $4,007 and $3,936/3,886 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,620 invalidate the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the $4,737/4,775 key medium-term pivotal resistance zone.Key elements to support the bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending trendline support.The recent 12% rebound seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from its 23 March 2026 low has stalled close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior impulsive down move from the 10 March 2025 high to 23 March 206 low. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 25 We are now concluding a second very passive trading session in Markets, with Participants still digesting the crazy past week and Monday developments.Sentiment remains more positive than it ever was since the beginning of the month, marking definite progress; However, like the French philosopher August Comte said, "everything is relative" (FYI, it actually isn't an Einstein quote).Markets can bloom on just the simple fact that the situation is not getting worse. Pricing Markets is a game of uncertainty, or lack thereof – And the confirming US-Iran discussions are what led to the overnight drop in Oil prices to ~$90 (from $95) in WTI.Once again, as long as WTI doesn't close above $100, the panic in Markets remains controlled.Global asset's inverse correlation with Crude prices remains the most important element in Markets, which allowed a positive session across Metals, Stocks, Bonds and Cryptos.Traders can expect the situation to remain confusing and see no concrete avancements until Friday evening, so timid rebounds may still prevail – but watch out for Thursday's which have emerged as seasonally tough on assets since early 2026. Read More:Fragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookA better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateGlobal markets swing on US–Iran war headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crudeStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 25, 2026 Except for Nvidia and Amazon outperforming other mega caps, defensive stocks seem to take the lead in the recent cautious Market rebound.Look for broad sector plays instead of individual stocks, which haven't shown any form of consistency since Monday – at least, as long as clouds remain.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView As you can see on the chart above, the inverse correlation between Oil and other assets remains the key to understand Market flows.But one asset class has emerged as the best performers, and understandably considering their extended moves on Monday – It's the Metals.WTI is rebounding towards $93 as we speak (Brent towards $100) so we are entering a area of risk ahead; Make sure to be flexible on your biases in case the situation changes in a flash.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Surprisingly, the US Dollar is remaining resilient despite the overnight correction in WTI, so FX traders will have to watch out for this decorrelation.The Aussie Dollar could find interesting plays ahead as it has now been trending lower in the past few session, with the RBA potentially moving towards a slower or ceased hike cycle ahead, particularly after the (small) CPI miss yesterday.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will focus heavily on Central Bank speeches as no major data releases (except for the Jobless Claims) are to be expected.Traders will focus on the headlines and WTI instead.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK annual inflation held steady at 3% in February 2026, matching the previous month’s figure.The Bank of England (BoE) faces a policy dilemma as public inflation expectations soar amid war fears and manufacturing cost increases.The GBP/USD pair remained largely flat, trading in a "squeeze" between key moving averages, which suggests an imminent technical breakout is likely.Most Read: AUD/USD: The technical squeeze between 0.6980 and 0.7070Data from the ONS showed the UK's annual inflation rate held firm at 3% in February 2026, matching the previous month's figure and meeting market expectations. This consistency marks a continued period of relative stability, with inflation remaining at its lowest point since March 2025. While the headline figure remained unchanged, the underlying data revealed shifting price pressures across various sectors. Source: TradingEconomics Primary Drivers of Price GrowthThe most significant upward pressure came from the clothing and footwear sector, which saw prices climb by 0.9%. This represents the first increase in four months, largely driven by the seasonal arrival of new spring collections following the conclusion of January sales. Additionally, costs for housing and utilities experienced a slight acceleration, rising to 4.6% from 4.5% in January.Sectors Seeing a SlowdownConversely, several categories helped keep the headline rate in check:Transport: Prices slowed to 2.4% (down from 2.7%), primarily due to a drop in motor fuel costs. Petrol prices fell by 1.6 pence per litre this month, a sharp contrast to the 2.0 pence per litre increase seen during the same period last year.Essential Goods and Leisure: Food inflation eased to 3.3%, while recreation and culture slowed slightly to 2.5%.Hospitality and Services: Costs for restaurants and hotels cooled to 4%, and the closely watched services inflation rate ticked down to 4.3%.Overall, the data suggests a balancing act where rising retail and housing costs are being offset by cheaper fuel and a gradual cooling in service and food prices.Inflation expectations soar on Iran war fears The Bank of England (BoE) faces an increasingly complex policy environment as new data released on Tuesday revealed a surge in public inflation expectations. This shift in sentiment compounds an already difficult situation for policymakers, as manufacturers have reported their sharpest cost increases since 1992, pressures that are expected to be passed on to consumers in the near future.Household energy tariffs are currently capped, a scheduled price adjustment in July looms as a significant upcoming catalyst for further inflation. These mounting pressures have created a notable divide between market participants and economic forecasters regarding the BoE's next move.As of Tuesday per LSEG data, investors were pricing in nearly three quarter-point interest rate hikes before the end of the year to combat rising prices. This should keep GBP partially supported in the interim.However, any significant escalation to tensions in the Middle East could see the US Dollar surge once more and this could drag on cable.The initial market reaction Markets seemed to shrug off today's data with GBP/USD remaining largely flat after the release.Looking at the bigger picture technical outlook, GBP/USD is caught between long-term bearish momentum and a recent short-term recovery.The pair is currently trading in a "squeeze" between two critical Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). While the price has recovered from its mid-March lows, it remains capped by the 200-period SMA (dark blue) at 1.34567, which is currently acting as dynamic resistance.Conversely, the 100-period SMA (light blue) at 1.33560 has shifted from resistance to support, providing a floor for the recent price consolidation. The narrow range between these two averages suggests an imminent breakout is likely as the price searches for a definitive direction.The path of least resistance appears slightly tilted to the downside unless the bulls can clear and close above the 1.34500 – 1.35000 resistance cluster. A rejection at the 200 SMA could lead to a retest of the 1.3333 support.However, if the price holds above the 100 SMA, we may see further consolidation before a breakout attempt.GBP/USD H4 Chart, March 25, 2026 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 24 Today marked a much calmer session after Yesterday's wild swings, as the situation hasn't changed much since the repricing of a potentially closer end to the US-Iran War.Trump welcomed Markets with a positive surprise early Monday morning, announcing that the US had already begun discussing a deal with the remaining Iranian diplomats. The news sparked a wave of optimism among Investors. Still, despite its strength, the move did not extend further.Doubts remain as a gigantic US Marine convoy is approaching the Middle East and should reach its destination towards the end of the week. Are Markets going to see boots on the ground, or will a fair deal first materialize?The Israeli side expressed its discontent with the 15-point plan drafted by President Trump, as it would fall short of more hopeful concessions from the Islamic regime. The IRGC stated that they would want to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz and their Ballistic Missiles program. Looking at the damage done from those all across the Middle East, this certainly will be an area of debate (and would not reassure Iran's neighbors).Oil prices across the globe did not hold their previous session's lows, which helped the US dollar bounce higher, now forming a range above 99.00 (DXY) and containing risk sentiment. Cryptos actually rejected their previous relative strength, with BTC back below $70,000 ($69,000 is the real key level to watch).Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, as headlines don't help much in understanding the ongoing situation – except for fundamentally changing news. It could be more informative to search for breakout spots and execute them when decisive flows come in. Read More:Wall Street uncertain amid US-Iran (potential) talks – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookIs the war taking a new turn? – WTI Technical analysisThe Metals space is as confused as traders are – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 24, 2026 The initial wave of rallying that was seen after the strong US Manufacturing PMIs quickly got overshadowed by significant hits in both Microsoft and Google as the session went by.Still, Producer Manufacturing and Utilities held the Dow Jones right above unchanged while other Indexes struggled a bit more, particularly the Nasdaq.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today mostly saw some easing of the previous sessions' gains, with Oil rallying an extra 3.70% and sagging the ambience.Black Gold remains the product to watch to navigate these confusing Markets, but overall, expect consolidations across asset classes as Markets await for a clear outcome of the US-Iran diplomatic attempts.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX saw a much more contained action in today's calmer session, with the US Dollar forming a range and bouncing from its lows.99.68 on the Dollar Index is a significant level to watch: extending from there would mark a more volatile range in Major currencies, while rejecting the level puts should contain volatility further.However, expect a day full of surprises tomorrow between headlines and a few major events (particularly for the GBP which outperformed a lot in recent sessions.)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow reserves many surprises, particularly for GBP traders who will welcome the release of their entire Inflation set.AUD traders should also remain cautious with the Australian CPI releasing this evening (18:40!)Those trading the Euro will listen closely to the Lagarde speech at 5:00 A.M. (ET), particularly as it may introduce future hikes.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil tumbled in the previous session as negotiations could be back on the tableNevertheless, realities of war indicate that the conflict isn't looking to ease like this, which could prevent positive sentiment.Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity In War, there are words and realities, propaganda and clearly defined facts – and the frontier between both is rarely so transparent.President Trump changed the Market trajectory after saying US-Iran negotiations could resume, a report initially denied by Iran but later confirmed as Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelled to Pakistan, where talks would reportedly occur.The fact that his diplomatic flight took place with US and Israeli approval proves that the US President wasn't just blowing steam – particularly given Al Arabiya reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Ayatollah, would also be open to talks.Nevertheless, the cloud remains over how deep and effective these talks would be regarding an official dropping of Iranian Ballistic Missiles and nuclear program, and, more importantly for immediate markets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.A ceasefire deal is currently priced at around 44% for the end of April – to me, people are a bit pessimistic about the potential for the War to end sooner rather than later. US-Iran Ceasefire – Source: Polymarket. March 24, 2026 The reality, however, gets a bit different, with Gas infrastructure attacks, Saudi Arabia leaning to join the war and changing its stance, and the fleet of 4,500 Marines arriving in the Middle East towards the end of the week.The latter is the most concerning fact for Markets, leading to swift comparisons to Afghanistan and Iraq, which also hints at a much longer war.It will depend, of course, on how negotiations result: Will it result in free passage in the Strait of Hormuz? Will the Iranian population gain more power and freedom after the 5-week initial Wartime Period? Will attacks on both sides actually cease and lead to longer-term peace?All of these questions will have to find clear answers in order for Markets to get rid of the uncertainty cloud looming over investors since the beginning of March.As the situation should become clearer as this week continues, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to spot where potential action could take place and where to look if they fail. Read More:Markets Today: Oil surges as Iran denial sours market sentiment, Japan inflation near 4-year lows. FTSE eyes 10000 psychological levelUSD/CAD: Cautiously bullish, waiting for a decisive break above 1.3730Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA), TACO trade may not work, watch the 46,710 resistanceUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView With the intense volatility seen in the commodity since the beginning of the conflict, the daily chart can seen quite unclear.But traders need to look at what is standing out:Yesterday's drop tested the 20-Day Moving Average ($86.00) which remains the indicator dictating momentum – breaching it to the downside would imply further easing in conditions. Above, the action remains relatively bullish.Also, yesterday's move lower actually brought the action back right around the War Spike, implying that the action is at least much more balanced than it was in the past week.As the morning session continues, Bulls are attempting a rebound, hence, the levels to watch for momentum clearly remains the $93.00 to $95 zone (bullish above, neutral/bearish below).WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The 4H RSI is at least not pointing to a further rally from where things stand:Forming a top-looking shape, bull exhaustion at the Key Pivot area could forge at least a new range below $93. WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$92.70 Intraday ResistanceKey Momentum Pivot $93.00 to $95 (immediate resistance, bear below)$96.11 4H 50-period MA$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$87 to $90 mini-SupportPast session lows $86.49$82.80 to $84 Key Support2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main Support (If Ceasefire, should quickly head towards there)2025 lows $55.001H Chart and Action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The 1H timeframe really shows how yesterday tilted the scales towards towards a more balanced price action – even slightly bearish.Yesterday's announcement brought a wave of optimism which quickly found its lows; WTI has been rallying slowly since and forming a rising wedge formation (bearish).The 1H RSI is also turning lower from neutral, a sign of potential reversal.But all things considered, as long as bears can't reject the $92.70 intraday resistance, the action is more mixed than anything – breaking the intraday highs would give the upper hand to the bulls towards $95.Keep track of the headlines and the Wedge support.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Downtrend confirmed, TACO rally likely a trap: Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken below its 200-day moving average and fallen ~10% from its peak, with the recent “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) rebound likely a dead cat bounce rather than a sustainable reversal.Macro risks not fully priced by equities: The VIX/MOVE ratio signals that bond volatility is dominating, implying interest rate and stagflation risks remain underpriced in equities, leaving room for further downside.Key levels define next move: Immediate resistance sits at 46,710, while a break below 45,190 exposes further downside toward 44,975 and 44,505; failure to reclaim resistance keeps the bearish bias intact. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) on the brink of major bearish breakdown below 200-day moving average at 46,330”, published on 13 March 2026.The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have tumbled as expected and broken below the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 18 March 2026.On Monday, 23 March 2026, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index extended its bearish move to print an intraday low of 45,213 seen during the London session. All in all, it has plummeted by 10% from its current all-time high printed on 10 February 2026 to Monday’s 23 March 2026 low, reinforced by a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve triggered by rising stagflation risk due to global oil supply shock arising from the US-Iran war.Risk-on behaviour roared back on Monday, 23 March 2026, after US President Trump sent a social media message that planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure will be paused for five days as both sides are engaged in a renewed negotiation process, despite Iran's repeated assertion that no direct negotiations have been held with the US.The TACO regime, the popular acronym, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has its footprints in the global financial markets yesterday, where market participants remembered the ex-post “Liberation Day” events in late April 2025, where Trump walked back on his aggressive tariffs and paused the US’s trade war 2.0 with China, inducing a V-shaped recovery in global stock markets.Last year’s April “Liberation Day” TACO regime was a reaction to a sell-off in risk assets caused by “words” rather than actions, which are military strikes on stakeholders’ physical infrastructure in the current context, in turn, are likely to have lasting economic damages that cannot be easily reversed by a change of rhetoric from Trump.Hence, Monday’s TACO-induced rally in risk assets is likely a fake head, also known as a dead cat bounce.Intermarket analysis and technical analysis suggest that the medium-term V-shaped rally for the US stock market and global equities in general remains elusive now.The VIX/MOVE ratio has not reached an extreme level on the upside Fig. 1: VIX/MOVE ratio with S&P 500 medium-term trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the implied volatility of the S&P 500, a gauge for US equities. On the other hand, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (MOVE) measures the implied volatility of US Treasuries.Based on the latest price action of the VIX/MOVE ratio as of Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at the time of writing, it is trading below its 20-day moving average with a series of “lower highs and lower lows,” which suggests bond (US Treasuries) volatility is dominating, which implies interest rates uncertainty is the core driver at this juncture, and equity volatility is likely not fully pricing in such macro risk yet (may lead to more potential downside for US stock indices) (see Fig. 1).Also, the VIX/MOVE ratio has not crossed above its daily Bollinger Bands’ upper limit, where such movements in the past led to or coincided with significant bullish reversals in the S&P 500 on 20 November 2025, 16 October 2025, and 8 April 2025 (see Fig. 1).Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspectiveDow Jones (DJIA) – Bearish reaction at 200-day moving average Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 46,710 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 45,237/190 may expose the next intermediate supports at 44,975/810 and 44,505 (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a clearance above 46,710 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 47,338 and 47,923.Key elements to support the bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) Yesterday’s rally stalled at the 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the descending channel from the 26 February 2026 high.The hourly MACD trend indicator staged a bearish reaction at its horizontal resistance level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices surged by 4% after Iran denied engaging in de-escalation talks with the USThe US dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand and diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.Japan’s core inflation rate slipped to 1.6% in February, falling below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years.Technically, the FTSE 100 index is in a consolidation phase with a bearish alignmentMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozEmerging Asian equities saw a volatile session on Tuesday, ultimately paring their early gains as investor anxiety persisted regarding the energy-related economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict.While market sentiment was initially bolstered by a recovery from previous losses, jitters remained high following Iran's denial of negotiations with the US aimed at ending the war.Consequently, major benchmarks across the region struggled to maintain their morning momentum, reflecting a cautious atmosphere despite the day's technical rebounds.Performance across individual markets was characterized by significant intraday retreats. South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged over 4% early on, settled closer to a 2.4% gain by the afternoon, while Taiwan’s shares cooled to a 0.8% increase after peaking at 2%.Similar patterns emerged in Singapore and Bangkok, where initial gains of 1.8% were whittled down to much slimmer margins. Despite these daily fluctuations, the broader monthly outlook remains grim; most regional benchmarks are deep in the red for the month, with losses ranging from 1% to 14%, leaving Indonesia and South Korea as some of the period's weakest performers.Japan inflation nears four-year lows Japan’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.3% in February, down from 1.5% in January and marking its lowest level since March 2022.This cooling trend was largely supported by food inflation, which remained near a 15-month low at 4.0% due to a significant slowdown in rice price increases.Additionally, price growth softened in the transport and clothing sectors, while education costs continued a steady decline of 5.6%.A major contributor to the disinflationary pressure was the energy sector, where government subsidies led to steeper drops in electricity (-8.0%) and gas (-5.1%) costs. While some categories like housing and healthcare remained stable, and others such as communications and recreation saw slight accelerations, the overall trend leaned downward.Notably, the core inflation rate slipped to 1.6%, falling below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years.On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of decline.European shares on course for lower open European equity markets were poised for a lower opening on Tuesday, erasing the gains achieved during the previous session.The optimistic sentiment that had briefly lifted global markets on Monday evaporated after Iran denied engaging in de-escalation talks with the United States. Despite earlier claims from President Donald Trump that productive negotiations were underway, which led him to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, the regional conflict intensified as Iran continued strikes on US assets and Israel launched new attacks against both Iran and Lebanon.This resurgence of geopolitical tension has left investors cautious as they shift their focus to upcoming manufacturing data from across Europe. These reports will be critical for assessing how businesses are navigating the current climate of uncertainty and supply chain risks.Reflecting this shift toward risk aversion, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures fell by 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, during premarket trading.Commodity markets Global commodity markets remained volatile as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts took center stage.Oil prices surged by 4%, with Brent futures climbing $4 to reach $103.94 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising $3.49 to settle at $91.62. This rebound followed a significant 10% drop on Monday after President Trump raised ceasefire hopes..However, prices rallied again after Iran denied that any such negotiations with the United States had taken place, reigniting fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf.In contrast, the precious metals market continued a downward trend, with gold prices falling more than 1% for a tenth consecutive session.Spot gold dropped 1.6% to $4,335.18 per ounce, hitting its lowest point since late November, while US gold futures saw a similar decline to $4,336.10. The slump in bullion was primarily driven by a strengthening US dollar, which increased the cost for international buyers, and diminishing expectations that the Federal Reserve would implement interest rate cuts in the near future.Gold prices have bounced ahead of the European open with the precious metal trading back above the $4400/oz handle at the time of writing.How did FX markets react? On Tuesday, the US dollar regained its footing as a shift toward investor caution bolstered the currency.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, rose 0.2% to 99.387, recovering from a previous dip to a two-week low. This performance puts the index on track for its strongest monthly gain since October, rising 1.8% this month.The dollar's resilience is largely fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflict and a shift in market expectations, as traders have moved away from pricing in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut for this year. Analysis suggests the currency will likely remain supported until there are clear signs of international de-escalation.The dollar's strength weighed heavily on other major currencies, causing most to retreat from recent gains. Sterling eased 0.49% to $1.3388, and the euro slipped 0.3% to $1.1583, following brief rallies on Monday.Similarly, the Australian dollar dropped 0.6% from its six-week high to $0.6968, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.5% to $0.5832.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remained weak at 158.73 per dollar after February data showed core consumer inflation in Japan hitting 1.6%. Falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years, this cooling inflation complicates the central bank’s ability to justify further interest rate hikes.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:USD/CAD: Cautiously bullish, waiting for a decisive break above 1.3730Peace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Farewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly OutlookEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European session will be a bit busier today with a host of PMI data releases from both the EU and the UK.Moving to the US session, the current US macroeconomic landscape is centered on two pivotal releases: the weekly ADP jobs report, which investors are monitoring for any signs of labor market softening, and the provisional PMI data for March. While it may be premature for the PMI figures to show a significant downturn, there is a growing consensus that the ongoing energy supply shock will eventually dampen business sentiment.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has hit a ceiling at the top of its nine-month range, stalling near the 100.25/50 mark. Its potential for further gains in the medium term appears limited unless there is another major spike in energy prices or a visible strain in financial liquidity such as a widening of cross-currency basis swaps, which occurred briefly yesterday as banks turned to the FX swap market for dollar funding.For now, the DXY is expected to remain within a tight 99.00–100.00 range, pending the next major development in the Middle East conflict. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, based on the 4-hour chart the index is currently navigating a period of significant bearish volatility.The index has transitioned from a steady uptrend in early 2026 to a sharp corrective phase.Bearish Structure: The chart shows a clear "lower high" and "lower low" pattern since late February, when the index retreated from its record high near 10,910.Moving Averages: The price is trading well below both the 50-period (Blue) and 200-period (Yellow) SMAs. Notably, the 50-SMA is sloping downward and has crossed below the 200-SMA, often referred to as a "Death Cross," signaling sustained bearish momentum.The index is currently fighting to gain acceptance above the psychologically significant 10,000 level, which has flipped from support to a "sticky" resistance zone.The recent candles show long "wick" rejections near the 9,816 level, indicating that buyers are stepping in at these lower valuations, likely driven by the FTSE's heavy weighting in energy giants (BP, Shell) which benefit from $100+ oil prices.The FTSE 100 is in a short-term bearish cycle within a broader high-volatility environment. The index is currently "oversold" on a sentiment basis but fundamentally pressured by rising UK inflation (3%) and the Bank of England's "hawkish hold" at 3.75%.The Bull Case: If the index can reclaim and close above 10,000, it may attempt a relief rally toward the 200-SMA near 10,450.The Bear Case: Failure to hold 9,816 likely triggers a retest of the 9,610 major support floor.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 24, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/CAD experienced high volatility after the US postponed military strikes on Iran, leading to a "risk-on" sentiment shift.The resulting weakness in the US Dollar was offset by a massive ~7.5% drop in WTI crude oil, which prevented the commodity-linked CAD from making gains and left the pair flat near 1.3715.The bias is cautiously bullish, requiring a decisive break above the key technical level of 1.3730The pair's movement will be governed by the 5-day US/Iran discussion window, further WTI price swings, and the potential for new US tariffs on EU goods.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozUSD/CAD had a wild ride today much like markets as a whole. Early in the session, the pair reached a fresh high of 1.3755, testing the peak set in January.Following a major geopolitical headline, the pair plummeted to an intraday low of 1.3683, testing critical technical support. By the afternoon, the pair settled into a flat, rotational pattern near 1.3715, as the market balanced a weaker US Dollar against falling oil prices.The Trump seesaw continues The defining driver was President Trump’s announcement to postpone planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. This triggered a "risk-on" sentiment shift, reducing the "war premium" and safe-haven demand that had been propping up the US Dollar.Crude oil (WTI) fell nearly 12% immediately following the news, eventually stabilizing near $90 (a 7.5% intraday drop). Since the Canadian Dollar is a commodity-linked currency, the massive drop in oil prices offset the US Dollar's weakness, preventing the CAD from making significant gains and leaving the pair "flat."Remarks from Fed officials provided a backdrop of caution. Governor Stephen Miran urged policy-making based on long-term trends rather than "short-term headlines," while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that oil shocks remain "stagflationary," suggesting rate cuts might not happen until late 2026.Factors affecting USD/CAD moving forward Moving forward, the pair will likely be influenced by several high-impact variables:The five-day "window" established by the US for discussions with Iran will keep markets on edge. Any breakdown in talks or a resumption of strike threats would likely spike the USD and oil prices simultaneously.As Canada is a major crude exporter, the CAD remains highly sensitive to WTI price swings. If oil recovers on supply concerns, the CAD could strengthen; if de-escalation continues, oil may fall further, weakening the Loonie.Markets are closely watching for "proof of inflation" from the Fed. A hawkish stance from the Fed compared to a potentially more dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) would provide long-term upward pressure on USD/CAD.Reports of potential 15–20% minimum tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration suggest a continuing protectionist stance that could bolster the USD through trade-war risk appetite.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD continues to test the 1.3730 key level.The daily chart shows USD/CAD is struggling to gain acceptance and record a daily candle close above the 1.3730 key level.If the pair does gain acceptance above this key level, there is a confluence area just beyond that where the 100-day (black) and 200-day (orange) MAs are converging near the 1.3800 handle.The 200-day MA at 1.3803 represents a "line in the sand", a break above this would signal a return to a long-term bullish bias.Significant long-term support remains at 1.3501.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 55.66, suggesting there is still room for further upside before the pair becomes overbought with momentum favoring bulls.The bias is cautiously bullish but lacks conviction. A decisive break and hold above 1.3730 would likely trigger a run toward the 1.3800 handle. Conversely, if the pair drops below the moving average cluster at 1.3650, expect a move back toward the 1.3580 support zone.USD/CAD Daily Chart, March 23, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 23 Recent trading sessions have been nothing short of wild roller coaster rides.Stock Markets reached new cycle lows on Friday and in the overnight Futures session, driven by fears of an escalation as the rhetoric seemed to intensify.But that wasn't without counting another Trump yo-yo, as he surprised Markets with the announcement of potential peace talks restarting, as the fourth week of the US-Iran conflict officially begins.On the announcement, a frantic wave of volatility unwinding shook Markets all over:Gold tumbled to $4,100, only to be saved by its 200-Day Moving Average (closing around $4,400). Stock Markets across the world exploded by 3% from their relative lows, Yields significantly eased, and, most importantly, Oil fell further.WTI broke the $90 psychological bar, and more strikingly, Brent fell back below $100 for the first time since March 13 – A significant easing in pricing compared to the slow grind higher that had been seen since.For now, this is only the beginning of some form of de-escalation, but it's not like peace is a done deal.With Iran denying any potential talks, optimism quickly faded. However, there are still signs that talks could be coming soon, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelling to Pakistan with US and Israeli approval.With about 4,500 US Marine troops currently traveling towards the Middle East, this could just be a distraction tactic, as mentioned here. Still, the reality is that we are now entering the fourth week, and both Israel and the US mentioned a 4 to 5-week operation.That would be a massive repricing for a deal, as Markets were getting increasingly pessimistic about the length of the conflict – The only truth is what Markets are saying:Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, which are losing some of their session strengths as the session concludes. Read More:Prudent optimism in Wall Street as US-Iran talks could confirm – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookCrazy swings all across Markets as US-Iran talks pick up: Gold grazes $4,000, WTI to $90 – Market CheckGold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 23, 2026 The heatmap did not change much since our afternoon Stock Market check, but there has been some (logical) profit-taking and deleveraging towards the close – Uncertainty is still high, but tomorrow should help to clarify whether the optimism is logical or not.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The session got wild after the Trump Truth Social post – Look at all the wild swings around Markets.Oil remains the guide for Market flows and sentiment. Those waiting to fill up their gas tanks at lower prices might still have to wait a bit, but that's definitely an improvement!Tomorrow's continuation will be necessary to confirm the risk-on turn for global assets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 23, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX was all over the place today, with risk-off currencies initially leading along with the stronger GBP (with a hike repricing for next meeting with the Bank of England – Watch out if Brent falls off a cliff!)But risk-currencies then took the lead, supported by the tumble in the Dollar after the Trump post. GBP, AUD and NZD are the leaders of today's sessionA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The calendar for the next 24 hours is packed.APAC traders will have to lean on the AUD and JPY for a few economic clues including Australian PMIs and Japan Inflation. But NZD traders will also have to log in for a Governor Breman speech at 21:00 (ET).Not even mentioning a flurry of Central Bank speeches, PMIs will release throughout most Major economies, and it seems to me that around this point of the cycle, Central Bankers will look more closely at economic clues to know whether they should actually hike or not – Expect these releases to move Markets!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Relative policy dynamics driving FX moves: USD/JPY weakness highlights that USD strength is not absolute, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, pushing the US dollar lower.Hawkish tilt from BoJ supports yen strength: Despite holding rates, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments on wages and inflation signal a potential hike path, reinforcing upside pressure on the yen.Technical downside risk building: USD/JPY is at risk of further decline below 157.40–157.50 support (20-day MA), exposing 156.55, while failure to reclaim 159.37 resistance keeps the near-term bearish bias intact. In the world of foreign exchange, we measured performance on a relative basis in terms of price action structures and macro factors.A hawkish stance or guidance from the US Federal Reserve does not necessarily result in sustained US dollar strength, as the currency’s trajectory is ultimately shaped by relative monetary policy dynamics across other major developed market central banks.The ex-post 18 March’s FOMC US dollar strength pop due to Fed funds futures market now pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 was evaporated yesterday, reinforced by hawkish guidance from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) despite keeping their respective policy rates unchanged at 2% and 3.75%.Ex-post FOMC US dollar strength evaporated Interest swap markets in the Eurozone and the UK have started to price in two 25 basis points (bps) hikes this year, each by the ECB and the BoE, due to their concerns on inflation risks arising from the slowdown driven by stagflation fear driven by the oil supply shock coming out from the Middle East (US-Iran War).The US Dollar Index shed -1.1% on Thursday, 19 March 2026, erased the prior day's gain of 0.7% (ex-post FOMC), and the USD/JPY fared slightly worse off with a daily loss of 1.3%.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy interest rate unchanged 0.75%, and we have warned in our BoJ monetary preview report published earlier on Wednesday, 18 March, that BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference that tends to tilt towards dovish vibes more often based on past conferences, is likely not to trigger a bout of strength in the USD/JPY this time round.Read more: BoJ meeting preview: Balancing act between growth and inflation as USD/JPY approaches 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zoneBoJ Ueda’s hawkish press conference BoJ Governor Ueda highlighted in the post-monetary policy decision press conference that the current spring wage talks have been delivering high chances of another year of wage increases.He also noted that authorities need to keep monitoring the impact of currency movements on consumer prices, as FX moves now may have more impact on prices than before.These statements are considered hawkish that suggests BoJ is still on the path of one interest rate hike before 2026 ends.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.USD/JPY – At risk of breaking below 20-day moving average Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 20 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 159.03/159.37 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 157.50/157.40 (also the 20-day moving average) exposes the next intermediate support at 156.55 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.On the flip side, a clearance above 159.37 invalidates the bearish bias for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.23 and 160.74 (also the intervention risk zone where BoJ sold USD against JPY in the past).Key elements to support the bearish bias on USD/JPY The price actions of the USD/JPY have broken down below the minor ascending channel support from the 27 February 2026 low of 155.54.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from the oversold region without any bullish divergence condition, which suggests that the current bounce from Thursday, 19 March 2026, low of 157.51 is a minor corrective rebound within a minor downtrend phase. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 19 After yesterday's FOMC session, the market experienced a significant shift.The previous trends benefiting the US Dollar and Crude Oil have now eased. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's latest address suggests that the ongoing conflict could end sooner than anticipated.This major change, combined with the global Central Banks' shift toward a more hawkish stance—particularly from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which are now signaling potential interest rate hikes in coming meetings—contrasts sharply with the cuts and pauses that were previously expected before the recent surge in oil prices.One key consideration is that if the conflict does conclude earlier than expected, Oil prices could sharply decline (though not as low as they were previously). This would likely lead to a reduction in inflation expectations and a decrease in anticipated rate hikes, creating even more uncertainty for traders.Metals have been sharply declining due to the more hawkish policies from Central Banks, along with global stock indexes. However, following Netanyahu’s press conference, WTI and Brent crude prices fell by nearly 10%, easing some pressure on global assets. Brent Oil 15M Chart – Source: TradingView The US stock markets made a comeback, coming close to positive territory after a dismal pre-open session, but they failed to maintain their highs. This shift is still significant.Gold is now trading below $4,700, Platinum below $2,000, and Silver dropped by 4% in the session to $72. Expect wild fluctuations in the metals market in the upcoming sessions. An in-depth analysis of metals will be provided tomorrow morning. Gold is still back below $4,700, Platinum, below $2,000 and Silver down 4% on the session to $72 – Expect wild movements in upcoming sessions for metals. An in-depth Metals analysis will be coming up tomorrow morning. Read More:The US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookWall Street gaps down, weak dip-buying attempts – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookBank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 19, 2026 The heatmap is looking much healthier than it was this morning, but doubts still remain – Defensive Stocks have in general struggled more and rebounds have been more chaotic.Tomorrow's session will be essential for Stock bulls!Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Talk about a chaotic session today! Oil was once again the main culprit, notably after making a pump-and-dump after he announcement that the US will not ban Oil exports.It closes down 5% in the past 24 hours, around $95 (for WTI).Metals and Crypto also had to kick the can down the road despite the better afternoon mood, with only Stocks profiting from the better War news.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The FX perf is almost an exact mirror of what happened yesterday, with Antipodeans easily recovering what they had lost previously, with the Canadian Dollar and US Dollar on the other side of the performance spectrum. The Yen however, is back on top shortly after USD/JPY reached new highs – Talk about a reversal!If the USD opens lower tomorrow, you can expect these flows to persist.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. After today's insane session, tomorrow should be more contained.Expect some movement around Antipodean currencies with the NZD trade data and PBoC Rate Decision coming up soon.Tomorrow will also see the release of PPI in Germany and Retail Sales for Canada.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yesterday's FOMC meeting marked the beginning of a rough session for Traders around the globe.Global Stocks Indexes took large hits, correcting down 3% in Japan, London and Europe and gapping down starkly in this morning's open. Dow Jones Index 4H Chart – Source: TradingView As you can see on the Index chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, heavy selling pressure from a massive hawkish repricing has applied large pressure on US Equities and others around the world. Yesterday's conference from Jerome Powell did not help to contain the initial scare of higher rates for longer – as a matter of fact, his wordings around the current 3.50%-3.75% were estimated to be located "at the plausible range of Neutral [rates]", implying that further movement in the Fed Policy would only be contingent on a weakening economy or Labor Market.And we haven't seen any sign of this for now – Quite the contrary: Jobless Claims came at 205K, the lowest since January (and they were at two year lows at that time) Jobless Claims since March 2023 – Source: Trading Economics This also combines with a flurry of Central Bank Decisions (including the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank) which haven't communicated any type of dovishness.When assuming that Crude Oil prices are now 40% higher than they were the last trading day of February, and close to 90% higher since their January lows, it is difficult not to reprice some heavy form of inflation spike.Everybody feels it at the pump, it hasn't been fun. Read More:Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightMarkets Today: European Gas futures soar 25%, Brent hits $119/barrel. Central bank pressure heats up as ECB meeting loomsFOMC pauses rates yet again, Dollar explodes – Economic Projections and (Updated) Market ReactionsMarket ReactionsCrude Oil spikes higher but eases since, Brent-WTI spread widens even more Brent to WTI Spread – Source: TradingView European and Asian Markets are getting even more concerned by the latest escalation in Energy infrastructure attacks across the Middle East, as these regions remain heavily affected by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.A detailed Crude Oil analysis will be coming at the top of the hour.US Treasuries volatility spikes, Curve flattens US Treasury Bonds – March 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Bond traders are now largely undoing the steepening that was priced in the Rate curve (implying that rates will be lower in the near term than the long-term).The issue with this is that such Curve conditions tighten credit and largely hurts banks.This is also the type of Curve movement that can precede either rate hikes or recessions – two conditions that aren't the most favorable for Stock Markets or any other Markets as a matter of fact.In general, a flatter yield curve means that current inflation is expected to be higher than long-term inflation – This comes with the heavy rises in WTI.The US Dollar marks a top after the FOMC DXY 4H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Markets may at least reconcile with the fact that the US Dollar is now correcting back to its pre-FOMC levels – This happens at the top of its July 2025 Range (from 96.00 to the current 100.00).An in-depth US Dollar analysis will be coming up this afternoon, but the general theme to keep in mind is the fact that an easing dollar may also ease general pressures around Markets since the beginning of the War.Watch the 4H 50-MA that has however just acted as support – Bouncing here would reinforce the pre-open panic.This pullback has helped the JPY to relief, and similarly for other currencies – The USD is now at the bottom of the FX board in today's session. The correction in WTI is also helping. Current Session in FX (10:39 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Gold retests its February lows Gold 4H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The price action in Gold and other metals has been very ugly, as participants really price out the Global Rate cuts, giving relative strength to yielding assets.This phenomenon is magnified by the lack of consistent rallies since the beginning of the War and a general scare of a long-term inflationary process. Still, it's not the end of the World for metals until $4,400 breaks – Here could be a decent, small DCA entry point for those who did not participate in the trend.Below $4,400 however may see further correction back to $4,000 and below, $3,500 so make sure to watch for your size and add only on confirmation!Cryptos are tumbling Current Session in Cryptos (10:35 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Bitcoin is now back below $70,000; Ethereum remains relatively strong at $2,100 but the overall Market is getting hurt by the latest hawkish repricing.Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day as today is promised to be quite volatile.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, choosing a wait-and-see approach as uncertainty around inflation and growth increases.War in the Middle East and higher energy prices have worsened the inflation outlook, raising the risk that inflation could stay elevated for longer than previously expected.The UK economy remains weak, which leaves the Bank facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and avoiding further damage to growth. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, judging that the best course of action for now is to wait and gather more evidence. The decision highlights just how difficult the current environment has become for the UK central bank. On the one hand, inflation risks are starting to build again. On the other, the economy remains fragile, and weak growth prospects do not justify further monetary tightening. United Kingdom interest rate, source: Trading Economics War in the Middle East reshapes the inflation outlookThe key factor behind the Bank’s decision is a fresh energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East. Higher oil and gas prices are feeding into inflation both directly, through fuel costs and household energy bills, and indirectly, through rising operating costs for businesses. The Bank has made clear that it cannot influence global commodity prices, but it can try to prevent this shock from becoming embedded in domestic inflation.Inflation is becoming a bigger concern againEven before the conflict escalated, the UK inflation picture had been gradually improving. That trend has now clearly deteriorated. The Bank of England estimates that inflation could reach around 3.5% in March, remain close to 3% in the second quarter, and then climb back to as high as 3.5% in the third quarter if energy prices stay elevated. That marks a notable shift from earlier projections, which had pointed to inflation closer to 2.1%. In other words, the disinflation process has been disrupted by external factors that monetary policy can only partially offset. United Kingdom core inflation rate, source: Trading Economics A weak economy makes the policy choice harderThe problem is that higher inflation is not being accompanied by stronger economic momentum. Quite the opposite: UK activity remains subdued, GDP growth is sluggish, and labour demand has softened. Higher energy costs could make matters worse by squeezing household real incomes and weighing further on consumption. In effect, the Bank of England is facing a familiar but difficult trade-off: how to contain inflation without worsening the slowdown in growth.The biggest risk: inflation becoming entrenchedThe Monetary Policy Committee sees risks on both sides, but for now it appears more concerned about upside inflation risks. Of particular concern are so-called second-round effects — the possibility that higher energy prices begin to feed into wage demands and broader domestic price pressures. That would be especially problematic, as it could keep inflation elevated for longer than markets currently expect. The longer energy prices remain high, the greater that risk becomes.What happens next with interest ratesThe Bank of England is not offering any strong guidance on its next move. Its message suggests that if the energy shock proves temporary and the economy stays weak, monetary policy could gradually become less restrictive over time. But if higher energy prices turn out to be more persistent and start to drive inflation expectations higher, the Bank could be forced to take a more hawkish stance. That means a rate hike is not the base case, but it has not been ruled out entirely. Unanimity today does not mean certainty tomorrowThe unanimous vote to leave rates unchanged should not be mistaken for full agreement on the future path of policy. Comments from Committee members suggest that even before the outbreak of the conflict, some had been close to backing a rate cut. For now, however, caution is dominating the discussion. Policymakers first need to assess the scale and persistence of the energy shock before deciding whether the next step should be a cut, a prolonged hold, or even renewed tightening.The Bank of England opts for a wait-and-see approachThe latest decision shows that the Bank of England has moved firmly into wait-and-see mode. Faced with war, higher energy prices and rising uncertainty, it is unwilling to move too quickly in either direction. For now, the priority is to determine whether this shock will prove temporary or evolve into a more persistent inflation problem. That assessment will shape the next phase of UK monetary policy. GBPUSD is currently trading near key support around 1.3225. Holding this level could be the first sign that the downward correction is coming to an end. Daily GBPUSD chart, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East, including strikes on energy infrastructure, caused European shares to drop sharply.European natural gas futures soared 25%, and Brent crude briefly hit $119/barrel, intensifying global inflation fears.Central banks like the ECB and BoE are now under pressure to implement rate hikes to combat energy-driven inflation, reversing previous market expectations for rate cutsMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?European shares slide on rising Middle East tensionsEuropean markets experienced a significant downturn on Thursday as the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered a surge in energy prices, complicating the inflation outlook for global central banks.The FTSEurofirst 300 dropped nearly 2% in early trading following a series of strategic strikes on energy infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, a major plant in Qatar, and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The geopolitical instability has fundamentally shifted expectations for monetary policy.Benchmark government bond yields rose as investors anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) would now be forced to implement at least two interest rate hikes this year, a sharp reversal from the pre-war forecast of a potential rate cut in 2026.While the Swiss National Bank maintained rates at zero, it signaled a readiness to intervene in currency markets to stabilize the Swiss franc, which has surged as investors flee to traditional "safe haven" assets.The latest volatility follows a violent cycle of retaliation described by US President Donald Trump, who noted that Israel "violently lashed out" against Iran's gas fields on Wednesday.Iran responded by targeting oil and gas facilities across the region, including those in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. This intensification has drawn urgent concern from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, leaving the ECB and the Bank of England to navigate a complex landscape of rising borrowing costs and energy-driven inflation.Brent Crude & European Gas futures soar European natural gas futures soared about 25% to above €68 per MWh on Thursday, reaching their highest levels in over three years.Earlier in the session, Brent had climbed more than $10 to a high of $119.13, close to the three-and-a-half-year peak touched on March 9. Prices of Brent futures have since settled around 114.77 a barrel, a rise of around 6.9%. Source: LSEG These regional disruptions are particularly critical as they coincide with the start of the seasonal stockpiling period. With energy storage levels already sitting roughly 15% below the five-year average following a harsh winter, the sudden loss of Middle Eastern output threatens to leave global reserves significantly depleted heading into the next year.How did FX markets react? The Japanese yen strengthened on Thursday, rising 0.4% to approximately 159.22 per dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of an April rate hike.Although the BOJ maintained its current rate at 0.75% and reiterated that the economy is recovering moderately, Ueda’s hawkish lean provided a boost to the currency.Meanwhile, the US dollar index dipped slightly to 100.12, though it remains near a four-month high as investors abandon expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.Markets are now almost entirely pricing in a "hold" for the Fed’s April 29 meeting, with any potential easing being pushed out as far as 2027.In Europe, both the euro and the British pound saw modest gains, rising to $1.1468 and $1.3272, respectively. The pound's movement came alongside data showing that British wage growth excluding bonuses, hit its slowest pace since late 2020.Similarly, the Australian dollar edged up to $0.7050 despite domestic headwinds. February data revealed an uptick in Australia's unemployment rate to 4.3%.The digital asset market did not share in the recovery, as major cryptocurrencies retreated amid the broader geopolitical tension. Bitcoin fell roughly 1.35% to trade near $70,285, while Ether saw a 0.5% decline, dropping to $2,178.This downward trend reflects a cautious "risk-off" sentiment as traders navigate a heavy schedule of central bank meetings overshadowed by the escalating crisis in Iran.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Morning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPIUSD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support brokeEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are both scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions later today.Expectations are for neither bank to change its current rates, markets will be watching very closely for any clues about how the war in the Middle East might change their future plans.Given the ECB has struggled with high oil prices and inflation in the past, especially during the 2022 energy crisis many people are nervous about what they might do next.However, I believe this situation is different from 2022. My expectation is for ECB President Christine Lagarde to be very careful with her words, similar to how U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been. Because the market has already predicted that rates might go up significantly over the next year, even a small comment from the bank could cause a big reaction.In fact, because expectations are already so high, the ECB might actually sound more relaxed (dovish) than people expect, as they probably aren't ready to commit to a specific plan just yet. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index The UK 100 (FTSE 100) is under heavy bearish pressure, currently trading at 10,079.2 and down 0.42% on the session. The chart shows a decisive break below the significant 10,101.8 support level, following a failure to hold the 10,269.0 handle earlier this week.Technically, the index is trading well below its 50-period SMA (10,509.6) and 200-period SMA (10,475.3), confirming a strong downward trend. The RSI is at 30.2, hovering on the edge of oversold territory, which suggests the selling momentum is aggressive but could be nearing a temporary exhaustion point.What to watch next:Bearish Case: If the price remains below 10,100, the next major psychological floor is 10,000.0, followed by deeper support at 9,973.6.Bullish Case: A recovery would require a "fake-out" reversal back above 10,101.8 to target the 10,269 resistance zone.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 19, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.