Introduction Good morning and welcome to the Central Bank of Ireland’s annual Retail Intermediaries Roadshow. I am delighted to have the opportunity to speak in person with representatives from across this diverse sector. This event is an important one as it allows us to engage together and to exchange views and perspectives.Role of regulation and the financial systemFinancial regulation and supervision, key functions of the Central Bank, are essential components of ensuring a well-functioning financial system. Delivering on the Central Bank’s four safeguarding outcomes - the protection of consumer and investor interests, the integrity of the financial system, the safety and soundness of firms, and financial stability - guides all our work. Retail intermediaries play a significant role in a well-functioning financial system. Participants at today’s event provide an important interface between consumers and financial products and services. A financial system that works well is vital for citizens, for businesses, and for the economy. Regulators and the financial industry have significant common ground in supporting these broader outcomes. At the same time, we should not expect there to be a full alignment between industry and regulatory objectives. Consumers need to have good levels of trust and confidence that the financial system is designed to, and will, deliver for them. Regulatory challenge and a robust regulatory framework play an important role in making sure that this is in fact the case.  I will start my remarks today by speaking broadly about where we are in relation to the outcomes that we seek to achieve. Then I will consider a number of themes related to the role of retail intermediaries in a well-functioning financial system. These include:The importance of the sector for consumers;The outcomes that the Central Bank sees as important for this sector; andSimplification and proportionality in regulation and supervision.We have also set aside time for a Q&A and I look forward to hearing the questions that you have on the topics that are of most importance to you.The current landscapeResilienceLooking across the financial system, substantial progress has been made in recent years in the area of financial resilience. We have seen firms demonstrate resilience in the face of adverse shocks – including Brexit, COVID-19, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is important to continue to secure and maintain this resilience given the continuing volatile and uncertain macro environment. Operational resilience – the ability of firms and of the financial services sector as a whole to identify, respond to, recover and learn from an operational disruption – remains an increasingly challenging topic. It requires important focus over the coming period. Operational disruption is a high probability and often high impact risk. As well as threatening a firm’s business, it can significantly negatively impact the interests of clients. Moreover, the interconnections and interdependencies within the financial system create a risk that a problem faced by one firm could be faced by or transmitted to others. It is important that all intermediaries have plans in place to recover from, and to support their customers during, events of operational disruption. These should of course be appropriate to and commensurate with the size, scale and complexity of their business.Retail investor participationA broad general challenge is that in much of Europe, including Ireland, we have relatively high household savings levels but low levels of retail participation in capital markets. The European Commission’s Strategy and Blueprint for Savings and Investment Union (SIU) seeks to redress this balance somewhat and to ensure that EU citizens who wish to do so have better opportunities to invest in capital markets. Forthcoming consumer research and analysis that will shortly be published by the Central Bank shows that Ireland has low levels of direct retail participation in capital markets. The majority of Irish consumers are not engaging in this type of direct investment opportunity. The reasons for this include issues around accessing information and advice, perceptions of suitability (“it’s not really meant for someone like me”), and levels of financial literacy that need enhancing.  Experience from other jurisdictions indicates that availability and choice of suitable products, providers and delivery channels; and access to advice and information are factors that support consumers to participate in capital markets. Retail intermediaries have an important role to play in delivering both of these enablers. The Central Bank’s role, including engaging with the industry, to ensure that consumers have confidence that their interests will be secured, is a key component in supporting this outcome. This objective has underpinned our recent reform of the Consumer Protection Code, including the newly articulated obligation to secure customers’ interests. I will say more about this in a few minutes. Turning for a moment inward to look at the Central Bank itself, the OECD recently carried out a review of the Central Bank’s financial consumer protection supervisory functions against the G20/OECD High-level Principles on Financial Consumer Protection, the international standard in this space. The OECD concluded[1] that the Central Bank is aligned with international principles, and has appropriate policies and practices in place to identify risks and improve outcomes for consumers. At the same time, the OECD identified areas where we could further strengthen our financial consumer protection supervisory functions. These findings tell us that, while we have achieved much in terms of our core mandate of protecting consumers, we must also broaden our sights and ensure that we are proactively embedding the consumer experience and consumer perspective into our approach. As a regulator that is committed to continuous improvement, this will continue to be a focus for us in 2026.Role of retail intermediariesAt the Central Bank, we recognise the very important role that retail intermediaries play in the Irish financial services market for consumers. In numerical terms, the retail intermediaries sector is one of the largest financial sectors in Ireland relative to the overall number of regulated financial service providers operating here, and the significant proportion of Irish consumers that use their services. The sector is of particular economic and social importance as it is a key distribution channel for insurance, pensions and investments, and mortgage products.The sector comprises around 2,500 regulated firms, including a large number of small businesses servicing customers across every county in Ireland. The sector is very diverse and also includes large intermediaries servicing hundreds of thousands of customers. While many retail intermediaries hold multiple licences allowing them to facilitate consumer access to a range of product types, some focus on particular parts of the market such as insurance, mortgages, or investments.This extensive network of intermediaries helps to ensure that consumers throughout the State can access the financial products and services they need for their day-to-day lives.At a time where many financial services have moved online – something which brings many benefits and which many intermediaries have engaged with - intermediaries also allow consumers that prefer a face-to-face and personal service to choose to access financial services in this way. We see the wider societal benefits that this brings.Consumers can be overwhelmed by the different product options available, and may find the level of technical jargon, or complexities of the products in the market, off-putting. We recognise that intermediaries help to bridge that gap, navigating consumers through the many options available, giving tailored advice, based on an understanding of their clients’ circumstances. By providing access and choice to consumers, and helping them to navigate the range of financial products and services available, retail intermediaries play a key role in ensuring that the financial system is fulfilling one of its basic functions – providing useful and suitable financial products and services to ordinary people. Looking to the future, the sector’s continued contribution to quality financial inclusion, and the core outcome of financial wellbeing for consumers is ever more important given the increasingly complex and ever-changing world that we operate within. There is also a significant amount of consolidation occurring in the sector, and the Central Bank will continue to monitor this through our current strategic cycle. By further enhancing our understanding of consolidation and its impact for firms and consumers, we can adapt our supervision and engage with the sector in a meaningful way as it evolves.Outcomes that the Central Bank sees as most important for this sectorNext, I want to address a number of outcomes that the Central Bank sees as a priority for this sector. Overall, we aim to ensure a well-functioning and accessible financial system where sustainably profitable, resilient, well-run firms have securing client interests at the core of their culture. Consumer should have availability and choice, and be empowered to make effective decisions to meet their financial needs. They should be able to access a range of products suitable for and supportive of their financial wellbeing and offering good value. Innovation and competition within the financial services market are important in this regard.All firms in the distribution chain have important roles to play in this, working together to secure consumers’ interests and provide value for money. In their role as the client-facing advisor, retail intermediaries represent a particularly important part of this system. Consumers rely heavily on their intermediary. This means that they should have confidence that the firm they use will perform competently and professionally, will deploy the appropriate level of expertise, and that it will always act so as to secure the customer’s best interests. Consumers can suffer poor outcomes when firms do not meet these expected standards, which could result in firms providing poor advice or recommending an unsuitable product that is not aligned to the consumer’s needs and circumstances. Consumer Protection CodeIn terms of the regulatory framework, you will hear more later today about the recent revisions to the Central Bank’s Consumer Protection Code which will come into force in March 2026. Our review of the Code included extensive engagement with industry, with other organisations and with individuals. I want to expressly and warmly thank this sector for your valuable contribution to that process. One of our key objectives in amending the Code has been to ensure that customers are at the heart of the culture, strategy and business models of financial services firms - including retail intermediaries. This is addressed through a new securing customers’ interests standard which is designed to ensure that their clients’ interests are always at the heart of firms’ business and focuses on outcomes rather than detailed rules. The securing customers’ interests obligation is supported by carefully considered guidance. We hope that this will help firms to understand the things they need to consider, the actions they need to take, and the mindset they should have towards their customers. We think that this regulatory approach will deliver significant benefits. We have seen that many of the decisions that firms must make are in circumstances where detailed rules do not apply. When firms internalise the outcome, when their business decisions are guided by the need to secure their customers interests, the outcomes are materially improved. Supervisory approachAt the Central Bank, we also continue to improve and transform our approach to supervision to continue to ensure we fulfil our mission in a rapidly changing financial ecosystem. Our new supervisory framework, effective since January 2025, remains risk-based and seeks to be increasingly outcomes-focused. It has evolved to deliver a more integrated approach to supervision, drawing on all elements of our mandate (consumer and investor protection, safety and soundness, financial stability and integrity of the system). This positions us better as an organisation to meet our objectives of ensuring consumers of financial services are protected in a changing and increasingly complex and interconnected financial landscape. Retail intermediaries are one of the sectors regulated and supervised by the Central Bank under our new supervisory framework, with each sector supervised in an integrated, holistic way, with a multi-year supervisory strategy that is refreshed annually to ensure emerging risks are considered. The priorities for the Central Bank in this sector include:That retail intermediaries are correctly seen to be highly competent and professional, able to provide high quality advice and to meet their customers’ needs. Firms should deliver this consistently,  securing their customers interests.That they operate remuneration models that avoid undue conflicts of interest, are clear, fair and transparent, and deliver optimal results for customers. Consumers should fully understand how services are paid for and the amount that they are paying. Receipt of commission payments should not impair intermediaries’ obligations to serve consumers best interests.That they are operationally resilient, including against cyber risk. This includes of course, larger intermediaries who provide products that are essential in the day-to-day lives of consumers, and serve a significant proportion of the population.And that the sector as a whole provides potential investors who may wish to participate in capital markets with access to a full range of good quality investment products that meet their investment needs.Unregulated ActivitiesAnother area of focus for the Central Bank is unregulated activity. This has been a problematic issue. Because of the way some firms have approached this issue, individuals have lost money. More generally, overall confidence that the system works consistently in individuals’ best interest is likely to have been impacted. Consumers need real clarity and confidence as to what is regulated and what is not regulated. Products that are outside the scope of regulation do not benefit from the protections afforded by the regulatory regime. Where regulated firms engage in both regulated and unregulated activities, there is real risk that consumers may misunderstand both the risks and the protections when accessing unregulated products or services.The so-called “halo” effect is real and powerful. Consumers see a financial firm that is regulated by the Central Bank and they, rightly, believe that this is important. They don’t expect there to be caveats on that quality mark.Remember, under the revised Consumer Protection Code it is a regulated firm’s responsibility to ensure that it secures its customers’ (and potential customers’) interests at all times.The revised Code requires regulated firms to ensure that their customers or potential customers do not understand an activity to be, or to carry the protections of, a regulated activity where this is not the case.Our new guidance sets clear expectations on the use of branding and other marketing tools. Were a regulated firm to deploy its brand in the sale of non-regulated products or services, the risk of confusion could be material. This risk of confusion is materially heightened where the unregulated product has similar features to regulated products. We have seen this in the recent past with certain unregulated investment products. Such products may be complex and come with the significant risk of investor loss. What this means is that under the revised Code it is unlikely to be possible for regulated firms, under the same or similar branding, to offer products or services which are unregulated and which bear similarity to regulated products or services, as they are unlikely to be able to demonstrate that the risks of confusion have been effectively mitigated.We will engage further with the sector in 2026 on the topic of unregulated activity. We will be focusing on how firms are meeting these expectations. We will seek to better understand relevant governance and decision-making as well as a firm’s culture and strategy, and how offerings are likely to be perceived and understood by clients. Firms must be able to demonstrate the steps taken to secure customers interests and deliver the right outcomes.Simplification and Proportionality The final topic I want to speak about is simplification and proportionality. There has been a lot of focus at European level on the simplification of regulation, including financial regulation. Simplification is an agenda the Central Bank welcomes and is actively considering. Regulators should always be open to reviewing existing frameworks, and seeing if we can deliver the same outcomes in simpler ways. At the same time, current rules are there for a reason. Simpler standards does not mean lower standards. Far from it in fact. Simplification is about achieving the same important outcomes in a more straightforward manner if and where that is possible. Simplification includes making sure regulation is outcomes focused and workable. It therefore requires engagement with stakeholders – both regulated firms and users of financial services. I have already mentioned the recent revisions to our Consumer Protection Code. In carrying out our strategic review of the Code, being open and engaged, and gathering feedback from those impacted, was a key priority for us, and that feedback is reflected in particular in the guidance that accompanies the revised Code. Simplifying also means rigorously applying the principles of necessity and proportionality. In terms of proportionality, we recognise that regulatory requirements impose compliance costs on firms, and such costs are generally passed on to customers. Therefore, such rules should seek to achieve their objective in a way that is cost-effective and proportionate. Requirements should be proportionate in terms of achieving the outcome sought without being unduly burdensome or costly. Proportionality has been and continues to be at the heart of our approach to high quality regulation. I want to highlight some of the steps the Central Bank is taking to enhance our proportionate supervisory approach for intermediaries. Streamlined authorisation for sole traders becoming single director companiesWe are currently working on a new, streamlined authorisation process for sole traders who propose to become single director companies. Under this new approach, we hope that applicants will complete a short form designed to simplify the process while ensuring that all key requirements remain in place. We anticipate that this new approach will recognise that the key people, business model and operations of the sole trader remain unchanged, and therefore, a more efficient process is appropriate. If a sole trader is seeking to amend their business model or add an additional authorisation, it will be required to go through the full authorisation process. This initiative is part of our ongoing commitment to reducing unnecessary administrative burdens while maintaining strong standards of oversight and consumer protection.Fitness and ProbityFollowing the Central Bank’s recent CP160 Consultation on Fitness & Probity, we expect to make a number of amendments to the fitness and probity regime and in doing so we will seek to take account of the nature and scale of retail intermediary firms.Industry communicationsAs demonstrated by our recent industry report setting out the findings of our thematic review of retail intermediaries’ fair versus limited analysis of the market,2 we aim to ensure that industry communications are delivered in a straightforward manner. Rather than seeking to impose additional rules or requirements on firms, these communications are intended to assist and support firms by clarifying our expectations around existing rules and regulations in a simple, meaningful way, instead of creating an additional burden. We call out where we see good standards of compliance across the sector, but also where improvements are needed. We also identify good practices which we have observed within firms, as we know that an important way to raise standards across a sector is for firms to learn from each other. We will continue to assess how we can deliver our supervisory findings in an effective manner that works for everyone.These are just a few examples of how we are seeking to deliver smarter, simpler regulation. By smart regulation, I mean regulation that is proportionate, targeted on outcomes, and adaptive to changing circumstances. Our approach will continue to evolve as needed for the retail intermediaries sector. It will do so so that it can most effectively support the delivery of the outcomes which I believe we all share: a well-functioning financial system supporting the economy and the financial wellbeing of citizens.Many thanks for your attention. I now look forward to our Questions and Answers.[1] OECD, Financial Consumer Protection in Ireland: A Review of the Central Bank Of Ireland’s Supervisory Functions [2] Thematic Review: Limited vs Fair Analysis of the Market in the Retail Intermediaries Sector

Thank you for the invitation to join you today. My remarks will focus on the significance of the relationship between Ireland and the UK, and of course both countries’ links with New Zealand, the economic outlook in a period of global change, how we can find opportunities in times of challenge. Let me start by stating the obvious: the bond between our three nations is not merely economic; it is deeply rooted in social connections that span families, businesses, and communities. The 87 GAA clubs in England, Scotland and Wales and over 10 in New Zealand tell part of the story. The fact that Dublin/London is still Europe’s busiest air corridor is another indicator of our connectivity! And although economic geography is a very different issue for New Zealand, as I’ve said before, technology is bringing the world closer than ever.  In an era marked by fragmentation and uncertainty, our relationship exemplifies resilience and cooperation, enabling us to address shared challenges effectively.  And it is clear that these shared challenges are increasingly global in nature.  They are common to us all, they cannot be confined to borders – and require global cooperation if they are to be addressed effectively. I know that we are committed to international cooperation and multilateralism, and this evening is but another example of our close relationships. I have said on many occasions that diversity of experience and thought strengthens both institutions and individuals. As this period of global fragmentation develops, our countries recognise that the world has changed, and that more change is inevitable. The old world of global trade is dying, and may in fact be dead, but the new one has yet to emerge or, at best, is struggling to emerge.1 Our focus should certainly be on creating a new world rather than clinging to the old.  In my view, Irish institutions are dedicated to international cooperation and we will continue to advocate for and play a key role in developing the new multilateral order that our economies and communities need.Ireland’s economic outlookAn environment of trade barriers coupled with policy unpredictability is unwelcome to an open and very well-connected economy such as Ireland’s.  The agreement between the EU and the US has provided some welcome stability. In the first half of this year, the Irish economy demonstrated resilience, with robust consumption and investment, but headwinds persist. Continued expected growth in real disposable incomes, amid a stable labour market – labour force participation is high and unemployment low – supports our forecasts for continued growth in consumer spending.  Overall, our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.2As for the trade relationship between Ireland and the UK, the most recent data shows that the UK was Ireland’s biggest source of goods imports in 2023, of over €26 billion, and its second biggest export partner, with €22.4 billion of goods exported in 2023. From a services perspective, the UK is Ireland’s second largest services export and import partner, with €52.75 billion of services exported and €29.95 billion relating to imports.3 Ireland’s trade relationship with New Zealand is dominated by pharma and agriculture and, indeed, Agri Tech is an increasingly important area. The Irish economy is well-positioned to face current challenges, thanks to decades of FDI-led growth and strong interconnections with the rest of the world, not least the UK but also of course the US and, most of all, the rest of the EU.  The question is how best to sustain the recent positive trajectory into the medium-to-long term at a time of ongoing geoeconomic fragmentation, a process that has been happening for nearly a decade but has accelerated this year.  This transition sits alongside the other significant, and more familiar, economic transitions of ageing societies, a changing climate and an increasingly digitalised world. Recognising and understanding these transitions is fundamental if we are to shape policies that build economic resilience, enabling households, businesses, and communities to navigate challenges and seize opportunities. International trade in goods has entered a new and profoundly unfamiliar period. Global trade is being reshaped as countries and businesses respond to tariffs directed at them.  In Ireland’s case our analysis indicates an economy one per cent smaller relative to a tariff-free scenario, driven by lower investment and a shift in exports to non-US markets.4 What this year’s events bring to the forefront is the need for clear priorities in economic policy. In particular, policy needs to focus on the fundamentals, managing the short term while planning for the medium term, ensuring our frameworks are fit-for-purpose and learning the lessons of the past while preparing for the future. Successful economies need stable and sustainable macroeconomic frameworks and sound fiscal and monetary policies, along with stable and well-regulated financial systems and well-functioning markets.For Ireland, against a backdrop of strong economic and population growth, continuing to attract investment will require a particular focus on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing. Of course, we shouldn’t just stop at the border, and our trading and financial system relationship with our partner countries will continue to be a very important one for our future economic growth. ConclusionWe need to recognise that the world we have been familiar with has changed and that, coupled with the ongoing march of demography, digitalisation, and a warming climate, more change is ahead.  We can meet those changes with confidence if we recognise and accept their existence and work together to address them.I wish you all well and for your continued work bringing together people and businesses in our countries.[1] To borrow from Antonio Gramsci’s Prison Notebooks: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”[2] Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2025[3] International Trade in Services 2023[4] See On the fault line? The Irish economy in a time of geoeconomic fragmentation - Central Bank of Ireland 2025

Welcome to the Central Bank for the release of the second Financial Stability Review of 2025.Since the last Review in June, we have seen an easing in trade policy uncertainty, with more clarity on tariffs in the short-term. But uncertainty remains high; it will take time for the economic effects of new trading arrangements to become apparent, and the steady state of those relationships over the medium-term remains unclear. Still, near-term global growth forecasts have improved modestly since the last Review. By contrast, risks stemming from developments in global financial markets have increased. Let me focus on three areas in particular.First, there is a continued disconnect between elevated levels of economic uncertainty and stretched market valuations, as equity prices have reached record highs, while corporate bond spreads are compressed. High equity valuations are driven by US technology and artificial intelligence related stocks, supported by expectations of strong earnings growth. A negative development in the outlook for these companies could lead to a market correction. Given the significant exposure of global investors to US markets, this could in turn lead to a shift in broader risk sentiment and a repricing in other markets. Second, recent high-profile bankruptcies in the US have raised questions about lending standards by non-banks in private credit markets, amid a scarcity of information around lending practices in these markets. More broadly, in light of elevated leverage or liquidity mismatches, certain segments of the NBFI sector have the potential to amplify adverse market shocks, given they provide funding for banks, hold sovereign debt and are significant investors in global equity markets.Third, fiscal deficits are rising in many advanced economies leading to higher debt burdens. As well as increasing public debt ratios and placing pressure on government expenditure, this reduces the ability of fiscal policy to respond effectively and support the economy during a downturn. With markets charging low spreads on sovereign debt, a sudden shift in sentiment could lead to unplanned fiscal corrections and wider market disruption, given the centrality of government debt in the global financial system. A broader backdrop to these global financial developments is an increased focus internationally on the efficiency of financial regulation. History tells us that there are clear political economy-driven cycles in financial regulation and supervision. At a global level, we seem to be at turning point, albeit with differences across jurisdictions. In that context, it is particularly important that burden reduction is not confused for an erosion of standards, which could eventually entail significant costs for society. The Irish economy is exposed to international developments given our structural openness and reliance on US FDI. A small number of highly globalised sectors drive output, employment and corporate tax revenue, meaning that any weakening of FDI flows would affect Ireland’s economic model. Given this concentration risk and at a time when growth in infrastructure investment is needed, public expenditure plans will continue to need careful management. Credit growth to the domestic economy has picked up, driven by mortgage credit and particularly for first time buyers. Lending has grown broadly in line with rising incomes over a period of stable economic growth. The link between unsustainable lending practices and house prices – a strong feature of GFC-era property valuations – is not apparent. A more prominent driver of prices in the current environment is a shortage of housing supply. For commercial real estate, the domestic market shows signs of stabilisation and sentiment indicators point to a gradual recovery. Despite significant exposures to global developments, Irish households, businesses and financial institutions currently have relatively healthy balance sheets. Given this starting position, even in an adverse scenario, featuring an escalation of geopolitical tensions, our analysis suggests that the number of firms in financial distress or households that would be unable to cover debt payments would be contained. As illustrated by recent stress tests, and broader analysis in our Review today, the domestic banking system has the capacity to absorb a severe economic shock and continue to support to the broader economy.The Central Bank’s macroprudential policies aim to promote resilience and are proportionate to the risks faced by the financial system. Given the backdrop of macro-financial risks and how global uncertainty can interact with Ireland’s open economy, we judge that maintaining a CCyB rate of 1.5 per cent remains appropriate. The O-SII buffer enhances resilience of those institutions which are systemically important. In this year’s assessment the number of identified O-SIIs is unchanged, while there was a small reduction in the O-SII buffer rate for one institution.The mortgage measures have now been in place for 10 years. These measures aim to prevent the emergence of an unsustainable relationship between credit and house prices and support the resilience of borrowers, lenders and the broader economy. The benefits of the measures have been evident in recent years, and in an environment of heightened economic volatility they have contributed to lower flows into mortgage arrears and supported prudent lending standards.In terms of the macroprudential framework for non-banks, Irish property funds are making progress towards meeting the macroprudential leverage limit ahead of the end of the implementation period in November 2027 and we expect to see continued progress in this regard. At an international level, the Central Bank supports the implementation of agreed reforms on non-bank leverage and on open-ended funds liquidity. Regarding the latter, we are working to understand better how price-based liquidity management tools are used by Irish-domiciled funds. Relatedly, we are analysing the financial stability risks from Irish hedge funds.Thank you for joining us this morning. I will hand you over to Director of Financial Stability Mark Cassidy to take us through the report, before answering your questions.

Stretched valuations in segments of global financial markets and continued trade and economic uncertainty represent the main risks facing the financial system in Ireland, according to the Financial Stability Review published today (17 November) by Central Bank of Ireland.The report is published twice per year and marks one of the flagship publications from the Central Bank. Today’s review assesses some of the main risks faced by the Irish financial system, the resilience of the system to those risks, and the macroprudential policy stance of the Central Bank. Clarity on tariffs in the short term has led to a modestly improved global outlook, but the improvements in growth forecasts rely on current agreements being maintained and the potential for further trade shocks remains. US technology and AI-related stocks are driving equity markets to record levels while corporate bond spreads are compressed, leading to a disconnect between the pricing of risk in global markets and the elevated levels of economic uncertainty. Fiscal deficits are also rising and are increasing sovereign debt burdens. While Irish households, businesses and financial institutions currently have relatively healthy balance sheets and the domestic banking system has the capacity to absorb a severe shock to the economy, risks from economic and trade uncertainty are significant given Ireland’s structural openness and reliance on US foreign direct investment. In his opening remarks at today’s press conference, Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said uncertainty remains high, noting it will take time for the economic effects of new trading arrangements to become apparent, and the steady state of relationships over the medium remains unclear. Near-term global growth forecasts have improved modestly. By contrast, risks stemming from developments in global financial markets have increased.Governor Makhlouf said: “There is a continued disconnect between high levels of economic uncertainty and stretched market valuations as equity indices reach record highs, while corporate bond spreads are compressed. A negative development in the outlook for US technology and artificial intelligent related companies could lead to a market correction. Given the significant exposure of global investors to US markets, this could in turn lead to a shift in broader risk sentiment and a repricing in other markets.”Governor Makhlouf noted recent high-profile bankruptcies in the US have raised questions about lending standards by non-banks in private credit markets, amid a scarcity of information around lending practices in these markets. More broadly, he noted that “in light of elevated leverage or liquidity mismatches, certain segments of the NBFI sector have the potential to amplify adverse market shocks, given they provide funding for banks, hold sovereign debt and are significant investors in global equity markets.”“Fiscal deficits are rising in many advanced economies leading to higher debt burdens. As well as increasing public debt ratios and placing pressure on government expenditure, this reduces the ability of fiscal policy to respond effectively and support the economy during a downturn. A sudden shift in sentiment could lead to unplanned fiscal corrections and wider market disruption.”A broader backdrop to these global financial developments is an increased focus internationally on the efficiency and effectiveness of financial regulation. Governor Makhlouf said: “History tells us that there are clear political economy-driven cycles in financial regulation and supervision. At a global level, we seem to be at a turning point, albeit with differences across jurisdictions. In that context, it is particularly important that burden reduction is not confused for an erosion of standards, which could eventually entail significant costs for society.”The Irish economy is particularly exposed to international developments given its structural openness and reliance on US FDI, with a small number of highly globalised sectors driving output, employment and corporate tax revenue. Given this concentration risk and at a time when growth in infrastructure investment is needed, Governor Makhlouf reiterated that public expenditure plans will continue to need careful management. On the domestic economy, Governor Makhlouf said “Credit growth to the economy has picked up, driven by mortgage credit and particularly for first time buyers.  Lending has grown broadly in line with rising incomes over a period of stable economic growth. The link between unsustainable lending practices and house prices – a strong feature of GFC-era property valuations – is not apparent. A more prominent driver of prices in the current environment is a shortage of housing supply. For commercial real estate, the domestic market shows signs of stabilisation and sentiment indicators point to a gradual recovery.”Despite significant exposures to global developments, Governor Makhlouf said Irish households, businesses and financial institutions currently have relatively healthy balance sheets. Even in an adverse scenario, the Central Bank’s analysis suggests the domestic banking system has the capacity to absorb a severe economic shock and continue to support the broader economy.The Central Bank’s macroprudential policies aim to promote resilience and are proportionate to the risks faced by the financial system. Governor Makhlouf said: “Given the backdrop of macro-financial risks and how global uncertainty can interact with Ireland’s open economy, we judge that maintaining the Countercyclical Capital Buffer rate of 1.5 per cent remains appropriate. In this year’s assessment, the number of identified Other Systemically Important Institutions (O-SIIs) is unchanged, while there was a small reduction in the O-SII buffer rate for one institution.”  On the mortgage measures, which have been in place for 10 years, Governor Makhlouf said the benefits have been evident in recent years. In an environment of heightened economic volatility, they have contributed to lower flows into mortgage arrears and supported prudent lending standards. Irish property funds are making progress towards meeting the macroprudential leverage limit ahead of the end of the implementation period in November 2027. At an international level, the Central Bank supports the implementation of agreed reforms on non-bank leverage and on open-ended funds liquidity. “We are working to understand better how price-based liquidity management tools are used in Irish-domiciled funds. Relatedly, we are analysing the financial stability risks from Irish hedge funds,” added Governor Makhlouf. ENDSFurther InformationKelly Horn kelly.horn@centralbank.ie Media Relations: media@centralbank.ie NotesView the Governor's full opening remarks.Read the Financial Stability Review 2025 II report.

Marco Finance Group - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

The Central Bank of Ireland today (10 November 2025) launched a campaign to help consumers avoid scams by highlighting how scammers’ techniques are evolving. Lesser-known techniques include fake comparison websites which look and feel like popular websites which help consumers find the best deal on financial services or products. Instead, they are a front to collect personal information which is used to contact consumers to offer them a fake product or service. Consumers can be more likely to fall victim to this type of scam because they’re in the market for a particular product and will be expecting further contact. Fraud recovery schemes are also a popular method which sees scam artists contact victims of fraud with promises of recovering lost funds for an upfront fee. These are designed to exploit victims’ desperation and lead to even more financial loss. The Central Bank has noted a rise in AI being used to create realistic social media ads and profiles impersonating public or business figures (‘deepfakes’). The profiles and ads will promote investment platforms or encourage consumers to join online ‘trading mentorship’ groups for advice. Consumers are coached through the process of setting up accounts on fake investment platforms and transferring funds. In some instances, they’re also encouraged to install software on their devices, giving scammers access to even more sensitive personal information. Speaking on the launch of the campaign, Deputy Governor of Consumer and Investor Protection Colm Kincaid said: “Across society we see increasingly sophisticated scams, principally on social media and other digital channels. Scammers are using these channels to harm users of regulated financial services.  Digitalisation has clear benefits, but these attacks are increasing the need for vigilance. “Even messaging around investment scams is changing. We are seeing a move away from promises of lucrative high returns or eye-catching benefits towards scams that are offering just higher than the market norm, making them even more difficult to spot. “We are launching this campaign to encourage consumers to take time to verify the information they’re seeing online, to ensure they deal only with a regulated financial service provider and get necessary regulated advice before making key financial decisions.” The Central Bank is advising consumers to:Only use well-known, reputable comparison sites and independently verify any products or offers. Examine ads and profiles closely, check the source of ads, and review and query any investment opportunities or platforms they come across before submitting any personal information or transferring money.Ignore cold calls, texts, emails or social media messages from anyone claiming to help you recover lost money.Never pay fees for recovering lost funds and be cautious about sharing personal information. Take the SAFE test:Stop, think and ask yourself about what you’re being offered. Assess the information you’re presented with and check the firm and product are legitimate.Factcheck and make sure the information is from a trusted source.Expose and report scammers to the Central Bank of Ireland or An Garda Síochána.The Central Bank has further information about how to avoid scams at https://www.centralbank.ie/scams Consumers can call 0818 681 681 or contact the Central Bank through our report unauthorised firms section of our website.ENDSFurther informationkelly.horn@centralbank.ie 086 210 33859media@centralbank.ie

The Central Bank of Ireland has fined Coinbase Europe Limited €21,464,734 for breaching its anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing transaction monitoring obligations between 2021 and 2025.The Central Bank of Ireland (the Central Bank) has fined Coinbase Europe Limited (Coinbase Europe) €21,464,734 for breaching its anti-money laundering (AML) and combatting terrorist financing (CFT) obligations with respect to transaction monitoring as required by the Criminal Justice (Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing) Act 2010 (the CJA 2010) between 23 April 2021 and 19 March 2025. Coinbase Europe, which is part of the Coinbase Group, provides crypto asset and wallet services to customers globally to facilitate their use of the Coinbase Group’s trading platform to buy and sell crypto assets.   As a virtual asset service provider, Coinbase Europe is required to monitor customer transactions on an ongoing basis. Where Coinbase Europe suspects that a transaction is facilitating money laundering or terrorist financing it is required to file a Suspicious Transaction Report (STR) with the national Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and Revenue Commissioners as soon as possible.  Coinbase Europe has been fined due to faults in the configuration of their transaction monitoring system, which resulted in more than 30 million transactions not being properly monitored over a 12-month period.  The value of these transactions amounted to over €176 billion, and accounted for approximately 31% of all Coinbase Europe transactions conducted in the period when the faults existed.  Further, it took Coinbase Europe almost three years to fully complete the monitoring of the impacted transactions. This subsequent monitoring led to the reporting of 2,708 STRs to the FIU for further analysis and potential investigation. The STRs submitted in respect of the late monitoring of the transactions contained suspicions associated with serious criminal activities including: money laundering; fraud/scams; drug trafficking; cyber-attacks (malware/ransomware); and child sexual exploitation. The monitoring of transactions in real time and the filing of STRs without delay is a cornerstone of the effectiveness and efficiency of the AML/CFT regulatory regime. Failure to do so can seriously hinder how the regulatory and criminal justice system can detect, report, disrupt, investigate and prosecute criminality.   Coinbase Europe has accepted that it breached its transaction monitoring obligations under the CJA 2010 by failing to:Fully and properly monitor 30,442,437 transactions; Adopt internal policies, controls and procedures to prevent and detect the commission of money laundering and terrorist financing; andConduct additional monitoring in respect of 184,790 transactions.Today’s announcement follows the settlement reached between the Central Bank and Coinbase Europe on 5 November 2025.Coinbase Europe has admitted the prescribed contraventions and has agreed to the undisputed facts as set out in the Settlement Notice. As part of the settlement agreement reached between the Central Bank and Coinbase Europe, the Central Bank has determined that sanctions comprising a reprimand and monetary penalty in the amount of €30,663,906 are warranted. The application of a 30% settlement scheme discount brings the amount to €21,464,734. The sanctions have been accepted by Coinbase Europe. The sanctions are subject to confirmation by the High Court and will take effect once confirmed.   Colm Kincaid, Deputy Governor – Consumer & Investor Protection, said:“To be effective in combatting financial crime, law enforcement agencies rely on regulated financial institutions to have systems in place to monitor transactions and report suspicions. The failure of such a system within any financial institution creates an opportunity for criminals to evade detection – and criminals will take that opportunity. Crypto has particular technological features which, together with its anonymity-enhancing capabilities and cross-border nature, makes it especially attractive to criminals looking to move their funds. This is why it is especially important that firms engaged in crypto services have robust controls in place to identify and report suspicious transactions.Where system failures do occur, it is imperative that they are reported to the Central Bank without delay so that appropriate actions can be taken to manage and mitigate the risk.” Notes to editorsThis is the Central Bank’s 162nd enforcement outcome to date, bringing the total fines imposed by the Central Bank to over €428 million.Undisputed Facts Settlement: This is the fourth settlement under the Administrative Sanctions Procedure (ASP) following the changes introduced by the enactment of the Central Bank (Individual Accountability Framework) Act, 2023. The ASP guidelines, which the Central Bank published in December 2023, outline the various settlement processes now provided for under the ASP.The Central Bank concluded this ASP by way of settlement under the undisputed facts settlement process. The Central Bank may enter into the undisputed facts settlement process with a Subject where there are undisputed facts that render an investigation and/or the continuation of an investigation unnecessary. A Subject who enters into a settlement under the undisputed facts settlement process may, at the sole discretion of the Central Bank, and subject to the timing of the settlement, be offered a potential discount to any monetary penalty proposed up to a maximum of 30% under the settlement scheme. Sanctions imposed by way of the undisputed facts settlement process will be subject to confirmation by the High Court.High Court Confirmation Application: As soon as practicable after such a settlement process has been concluded, the Central Bank will apply to the High Court for confirmation of the sanction imposed. The High Court will confirm the decision to impose a sanction unless it is satisfied that any sanction imposed is manifestly disproportionate. If the High Court does not confirm a sanction agreed as part of a settlement agreement concluded under the Undisputed Facts Settlement Process, it will remit the matter for reconsideration by the Central Bank and the Subject along with any recommendation the High Court has in respect of the matters to be reconsidered.This is the first enforcement outcome in the crypto sector. Settlement Notice.“Coinbase Group” refers to Coinbase Global, Inc. and its subsidiaries, including Coinbase Europe Limited.

Financiere Mullin Fund Limited (Clone) – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, and Governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Lesetja Kganyago, jointly signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Washington DC, where they were both attending the meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in October.The purpose of the MoU is to provide a framework to promote cooperation between the two institutions, and is established in the context of South Africa’s G20 Presidency, with Ireland as an invited member this year. The MoU will promote mutual understanding and action on key priorities of South Africa’s G20 Presidency, namely mitigating climate-related financial risks and advancing cross-border payments, addressing challenges related to cost, speed, access and transparency.The MoU reflects the critical role central banks play in safeguarding financial, economic and price stability against the effects of climate change, and their part in regulating, supervising, operating, overseeing and upgrading financial market infrastructures to enhance payments.Governor Makhlouf said: “It was a great pleasure to agree these key areas of cooperation with my South African colleague, and to discuss with Governor Kganyago our shared view of the importance of these issues.”Echoing this sentiment, Governor Kganyago said: “South Africa’s G20 Presidency has put these issues at the top of the global agenda. The SARB looks forward to ongoing collaboration with the Central Bank of Ireland and to further advancing these discussions.”

I am delighted to welcome you to the Central Bank of Ireland today.1  It is great to have such a broad range of stakeholders here from public service, civil society, charitable organisations and the financial services sector to discuss protecting consumers in vulnerable circumstances.  It is right to place a special focus on consumers in vulnerable circumstances, and that we reflect vulnerability in all its forms. If we are to have trust in financial services, we need to be confident our best interests will be secured when we are at our most vulnerable, when we are most likely to suffer financial detriment or harm. Periods of vulnerability in our lives (from bereavement to illness to financial and other shocks) often carry with them a requirement to make financial decisions we don’t regularly make, such as claiming on an insurance policy, encashing a financial product or deciding what to do with an inheritance. Major life events that make us vulnerable are also often accompanied by challenges to meet new expenses or other financial difficulties. We may also have to face the challenges presented by an ongoing vulnerability that affects how we need to receive services or advice if we are to be financial included like everyone else. We are all prone to vulnerability through gaps in our financial or digital literacy or lack of confidence in managing our money (or asserting our rights). The geopolitical context is also relevant. In his recent remarks following the Annual Meeting of the International Monetary Fund, Governor Makhlouf spoke to the vulnerabilities in the global financial system itself on which we will need to keep a very close eye and which, on the face of it, look uncomfortably familiar.2 Those of us here today know how rapidly and profoundly shocks to the global financial system can be felt in household finances, augmenting the impact of any vulnerability that household may already face. Or to frame this more constructively, we know how concrete steps to build the resilience of household finances can help our society as a whole to withstand such shocks and rebound from them. In all these circumstances, financial services needs to play its role to support consumers’ financial well-being, that is to say “a state in which individuals are able to smoothly manage their financial needs and obligations, can cope with negative shocks, can pursue aspirations, goals and capture opportunities, and feel satisfied and confident about their financial lives, keeping in mind country specific circumstances”.3That is a challenging task, and a complex one, but not one any of us here today faces alone, since we all have a role to play.Recognising the complexity of these issues, we have organised today’s workshop in order that we may learn from one another. We want to hear about different approaches and best practices, practical steps and measures you have put in place to ensure that culture, policies and processes take account of the needs of consumers in vulnerable circumstances.I also encourage the financial services sector to learn from other industries and public services who may have better approaches to consumers facing particular vulnerabilities. I would like it to be said in future that the financial services sector is amongst the best at supporting consumers in vulnerable circumstances. Would that be said today I wonder? In some respects it might, but in others I expect it would not.Our New Consumer Protection Code The backdrop to today’s event is the Central Bank of Ireland’s new Consumer Protection Code.4 It will come into force in March next year and contains modernised provisions on consumer vulnerability. The new Code builds on work done this past decade to strengthen the consumer protection framework in Ireland, both to align with global standards and in reaction to specific challenges and cases of misconduct we had to deal with.5The Consumer Protection Code is the cornerstone of our consumer protection framework for financial services, sitting within a wider framework of laws to protect consumers and investors. The recent review of the Code was a key strategic initiative of the Central Bank to ensure the Code remains fit for purpose and future-ready. We carried out the review in an open and engaged manner and I want to thank the more than 1,320 organisations and individuals who engaged with us through the process. In particular I thank those who responded to our public consultation. Our new Consumer Protection Code would not be what it is without your insights. As we move to implement the new Code, we want to continue to get the benefit of your insights, just as we did in the Code Review itself. Today’s event is an example of this approach, to take a modernised component of the new Code (vulnerability) and workshop with you what it should mean in practical terms. We will continue to arrange engagements such as this as we head towards the go-live date on 24 March 2026 and beyond. In doing so, we recognise the Code contains new provisions on which we need a shared understanding if we are to continue to improve financial services over time. At the Central Bank of Ireland, we are committed to continuing to engage with you on these topics. We are also committed to sharing and disseminating information as our understanding of the Code and its impact evolves. New protections for consumers facing vulnerable circumstancesOne of the new Code’s key enhancements is to broaden the concept of "vulnerability" to which specific protections apply. In doing so, we are aligning ourselves with the more sophisticated articulation of vulnerability in the revised G20/OECD High Level Principles on Financial Consumer Protection. The OECD’s recent review of our supervisory approach included specific recommendations to enhance our supervisory approach with respect to vulnerable consumers.6 We will factor what we hear today into our development of that approach under our new supervisory framework. Our implementation of the new Consumer Protection Code I know you will also be keen to understand how the Central Bank is approaching implementation of the new Code in general. There are four points I want to make: We expect regulated firms to now be well advanced in their implementation of the new Code underpinned by clear plans, resources and senior level accountability. Your care and attention to implementing the Code is something we will take into account in future supervisory actions. Here, I want to commend those industry bodies who have been so proactive in playing their role to support member firms through dedicated workstreams and groups. We recognise the Code introduces new requirements. We will work with firms and stakeholders across the system to build understanding of those requirements. We will be open and engaged on this, recognising the Central Bank does not always have the answer to what represents best practice in terms of operationalising a given provision of the Code. Today’s workshop is an example of this – you will understand better than us what a good approach to supporting a consumer facing a given vulnerability will be.We will weave the requirements of the Code throughout our supervisory work, consistent with our new integrated supervisory approach. As I outlined in recent remarks7, in the immediate period ahead this will involve a particular focus on: How firms operate and the consumer/investor experience: We expect firms to be well run, secure their customers’ interests and effectively manage any conflicts of interest by placing consumers and investors at the heart of decision making.Digitalisation: Digital innovation can support consumers and investors. However, it also comes with potential risks in terms of ensuring consumers are enabled to make the digital transition and given appropriate information and support when making transactions digitally.  There is also a need to ensure operational resilience, recognising the significant impact service disruption has on consumers.   Financial crime: This should be a priority for all firms and agencies involved with financial services. We all need to actively safeguard the integrity of the financial system and consumer interests by combatting financial crime.How firms have enhanced their supports for consumers facing vulnerable circumstances can be expected to feature in our supervisory engagements across each of these three themes.4.  We will assess the effectiveness of the Code through the substantive outcomes firms achieve. This will include enhancing how we gather and consider insights from consumers through our research, new capabilities we are equipping our supervisors with to monitor online activity and how we use conduct of business returns.8 Here I have a particular ask of regulated firms when it comes to implementing the Code: build a better understanding of your customers’ financial well-being, their needs and the challenges they face (including listening more closely to what their complaints are telling you about their experience of your firm).  I have seen good examples of this being done already and I believe, if done well, it can support good outcomes for both consumers and the businesses involved.Keeping track of progressWhen I say we need to assess the effectiveness of our regulatory frameworks through the substantive outcomes achieved for consumers, I generally see people nod in agreement. But I wonder do we know or agree what those outcomes should be?Perhaps today’s workshop will be an interesting insight into that. In recent remarks I spoke about the need to support a better social conversation on financial well-being. I am committed to this conversation because I want us to be able to keep track of how we are delivering better outcomes for consumers in real terms. How are we to assess these outcomes if we don’t have a shared concept of what ‘financial well-being’ means to begin with? The Central Bank supports Ireland’s Well-being Framework and we are working at OECD level to develop the conceptual framework for financial well-being specifically.  To support this work and our social conversation here in Ireland, I am keen that we build more structured data on this topic, hence my encouragement to regulated firms to place a focus on this. For its part, the Central Bank will continue to put information into the public domain to inform this conversation. In addition to our ongoing research and statistical publications, we are putting in place a new Consumer Insights Model, to understand the position of Irish consumers via a nationally representative survey of 4,000 consumers of financial services across a range of topics relevant to financial well-being. We will collect, measure and analyse data on these consumers’ behaviours and experience of different financial services. We will also measure their attitudes and sentiment across a range of consumer finance topics.  We will publish the outputs to inform policy as well as our own supervisory strategies. The Consumer Insights Model will enhance our understanding of the financial products consumers and investors buy, their experiences of financial service providers, their financial situation and their attitudes towards current issues affecting financial services.  It will also inform our risk analysis of sectors and markets and how we prioritise our work.  Events like today and our forthcoming Consumer Insights Model reflect the Central Bank’s demeanour towards how we will implement the Code. We realise the reforms of the Code will take work to implement and that we must support that work going in the right direction. We will also be monitoring closely the extent to which firms’ implementation of the Code is leading to demonstrably better outcomes for consumers. I suggest regulated firms put increasing focus on doing so too, so that together we keep track of how regulation is contributing to creating the right conditions for financial services to support financial well-being. Let me pause there and thank you for your attention and your participation in our workshop today.[1] Thanks Deirdre Mullally, Brendan Beere, Patrick Casey, Brenda Carron and James O’Sullivan for their help in preparing these remarks.[2] Governors Blog 2025 IMF Annual Meeting.[3] G20 Policy Note on Financial Well Being.[4] Central Bank of Ireland Consumer Protection Code.  [5] G20/OECD High-Level Principles on Financial Consumer Protection.  [6] OECD (2024), Financial Consumer Protection in Ireland: A Review of the Central Bank of Ireland's Supervisory Functions, OECD Publishing, Paris. [7] "Towards Our Future Financial Wellbeing" - Speech by Deputy Governor Colm Kincaid at Financial Services Ireland.  October 2025.[8] For example, see recently published research related to Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL).  Following this research, the Central Bank issued a Dear CEO letter to firms in the sector highlighting the importance of the research findings and the forthcoming consumer code requirements in this area. 

The Central Bank of Ireland today (31 October 2025) published the seventh annual Private Motor Insurance Report of the National Claims Information Database (NCID). The report looks at data from 2010 to 2024 and gives insights into the cost of premiums, claims and the overall aggregated financial performance of the private motor insurance sector. NCID compiles data from all insurers selling private motor insurance in Ireland with a view to improving the overall transparency of the private motor claims sector. The total gross written premium in 2024 for private motor insurance was €1.46bn. Other key findings published in today’s report include:Cost of InsuranceThe average written premium per policy increased by 9% to €623 between 2023 and 2024.The expected cost of claims per policy increased by 3% to €397 in 2024, the highest it has been since 2014. This is driven by damage claims:Damage claims cost per policy increased to €192, while injury claims cost per policy remains lower than pre-pandemic levels at €205. Injury claims cost remained stable between 2022 and 2024, compared to €257 for the pre-COVID 2015-2019 average. The average cost of smaller injury claims has reduced in recent years, but this has been offset by an increase in the average cost of larger injury claims.Expected claim costs as a percentage of premiums received was 68% in 2024.In 2024 93% of policies sold had comprehensive cover which is consistent with the 2023 findings.Income and Expenditure Operating profit was 4% of total income in 2024, down from 8% in 2023 and 12% in 2022.Overall, between 2010 and 2024 operating profit was 5%.Combined Operating Ratio (COR) was 95% gross and 99% net of reinsurance.Settled Claims in 2024The total cost of claims settled in 2024 was €792m. Damage claim costs accounted for 54% of total settled claim costs, an increase from the 29% average observed between 2015 and 2021. Damage claims increased by 6%, while the average cost of damage claims increased by 18% compared to 2023. For injury claims settled in 2024:48% settled directly with an insurer, with an average time taken to settle of 1.8 years.16% settled through the Injuries Resolution Board with an average time to settle of 2.7 years 36% settled through litigation with an average time taken to settle of 5 years. Personal Injuries GuidelinesFor injury claims settling directly or through the Injuries Resolution Board, virtually all claims settled under the Guidelines in 2024. For injury claims settled through litigation in H2 2024:57% settled under the Guidelines.43% settled with reference to the book of Quantum.The average cost of claims settled under the Guidelines in 2024 were (when compared to claims settled in the same channel under the Book of Quantum in 2020):33% lower for claims that settled directly before the Injuries Resolution Board.8% lower for claims settling through the Injuries Resolution Board.26% lower for claims settling directly after the Injuries Resolution Board. A reduction in compensation awards has also been observed for claims (under €100,000 compensation cost) settled in the litigated channel.  Robert Kelly, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank of Ireland, said: “We are pleased to publish the seventh annual Private Motor Insurance Report of the NCID today. It’s an important resource for policymakers, stakeholders and the wider financial services industry and improves the overall transparency of the claims environment and the insurance sector. “The average written premium has increased by 9% compared to 2023. The data also shows claims costs continue to rise, primarily due to an increase in damage claims. In 2024, damage claims accounted for 54% of settled claim costs, a significant increase from the 29% average observed between 2015 and 2021.“While there has been an upward trend in the number of claims settled and the associated costs since the COVID years, it is important to highlight the total cost of injury claims settled in 2024 was 16% lower than the average from 2015 to 2019, with the total number of injury claims settled being 23% lower. Operating profit was 4% of total income in 2024, down from 8% in 2023 and 12% in 2022. Overall, between 2010 and 2024, operating profit was 5%.”ENDS More InformationKelly Horn kelly.horn@centralbank.ie / media@centralbank.ie  

New phase will ensure technical readiness for first issuanceIf legislation in place in the course of 2026, a pilot exercise could start in 2027 and the Eurosystem should be ready for a potential first issuance of the digital euro during 2029Preparation phase begun in November 2023 has successfully concludedThe Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to move to the next phase of the digital euro project. This decision follows the successful completion of the preparation phase, launched by the Eurosystem in November 2023, which laid the foundations for issuing a digital euro.The Governing Council’s decision aligns with European leaders’ request to accelerate progress on the digital euro, as recently stated at the October 2025 Euro Summit. A digital euro will preserve Europeans’ freedom of choice and privacy and protect Europe’s monetary sovereignty and economic security. It will foster innovation in payments and help make European payments competitive, resilient and inclusive. The Eurosystem will implement its preparations flexibly, in line with calls from euro area leaders for the Eurosystem to be ready for a potential digital euro issuance as soon as possible, while also recognising that the legislative process has not yet been completed. The ECB Governing Council‘s final decision on whether to issue a digital euro, and on what date, will only be taken once the legislation has been adopted. Under the assumption that European co-legislators will adopt the Regulation on the establishment of the digital euro in the course of 2026, a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027. The whole Eurosystem should then be ready for a potential first issuance of the digital euro during 2029.“The euro, our shared money, is a trusted sign of European unity,” said ECB President Christine Lagarde. “We are working to make its most tangible form – euro cash – fit for the future, redesigning and modernising our banknotes and preparing for the issuance of digital cash.”As payment habits evolve, and cash payments decline compared with digital transactions, the need for a public digital means of payment – complementary to cash – has become increasingly urgent. The digital euro will complement cash and bring its benefits – simplicity, privacy, reliability, availability across the whole euro area – to digital payments. Along with the Regulation on the establishment of the digital euro, the ECB is also supporting the European Commission’s proposal to reinforce the right to pay with cash.The Eurosystem will focus on three main areas:Technical readiness: developing the digital euro’s technical foundations, including initial system set-up and piloting;Market engagement: collaborating with payment providers, merchants and consumers to finalise the rulebook, conduct user research and test the system through pilot activities;Legislative process support: continue providing technical input to EU co-legislators and assist the legislative process as required.“This is not just a technical project but a collective effort to future-proof Europe’s monetary system,” said ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, who chairs the High-Level Task Force on a digital euro. “A digital euro will ensure that people enjoy the benefits of cash also in the digital era. In doing so, it will enhance the resilience of Europe’s payment landscape, lower costs for merchants, and create a platform for private companies to innovate, scale up and compete.”Transparency and close cooperation with stakeholders have been – and will continue to be – fundamental to the project. The Eurosystem has benefited greatly from feedback from European decision-makers, market participants and potential users, and will continue to engage actively with a wide range of stakeholders.The Eurosystem’s continued preparation for a digital euro will be implemented flexibly, ensuring alignment with the legislative process. To this end, work will be structured in modules to enable gradual scaling and limit financial commitments. The final cost of a digital euro – for both its development and operation – will depend on its final design, including components and related services that need to be developed. As a result of the work done in the preparation phase, the total development costs, comprising both externally1 and internally developed components, are estimated at around €1.3 billion until the first issuance, which is currently expected during 2029. Subsequent annual operating costs are projected to be approximately €320 million per year from 2029. The Eurosystem would bear these costs, as it does for producing and issuing euro banknotes – which, like the digital euro, are a public good. As in the case of banknotes, these costs are expected to be compensated by the generated seigniorage – even if digital euro holdings were small compared with banknotes in circulation.The conclusion of the preparation phase marks an important transition in the digital euro project. Building on the insights gained during the investigation phase conducted from 2020 to 2023, we moved towards refining its practical design. Key achievements include (1) the development of the draft digital euro scheme rulebook, (2) the selection of providers for digital euro components and related services, (3) the successful running of an innovation platform for experimentation with market participants, as well as (4) the investigation by a technical workstream into the fit of the digital euro in the payment ecosystem. The latter, conducted by the ECB and market participants via the Euro Retail Payments Board, concluded that a digital euro could foster further competition in the European payments market. Besides directly benefiting from distributing the digital euro, banks and other payment service providers could leverage its open standards to expand their reach across the euro area without needing their own acceptance networks. They would also be able to co-badge the digital euro with existing payment solutions.The ECB provided technical input to co-legislators on request, thereby supporting the legislative process. This input demonstrated that the costs of the digital euro for banks will be contained – these costs will be close to the European Commission’s initial estimates and similar to those incurred for the implementation of the Payment Services Directive. It also showed that safeguards built into the design of the digital euro (such as holding limits) would ensure that it does not create financial stability risks.To ensure that the digital euro is designed to meet the needs of European citizens and merchants, the Eurosystem conducted extensive user research targeting vulnerable consumers and small merchants. The findings – available in a separate report published today – show the need for a simple, reliable and secure payment experience. These results reaffirm the ECB’s commitment to developing a digital euro that works for everyone and advances Europe’s financial evolution – designed to empower citizens, support innovation and strengthen the resilience of our monetary system. [1] External development costs until a first issuance are estimated at around €265 million.

Chair and Committee members, thank you for the invitation to join you today to discuss the issue of the Central Bank’s role in the Israeli Bond Programme. I am joined by Mary Elizabeth McMunn, Deputy Governor, Financial Regulation, and Gerry Cross, Director of Capital Markets and Funds. Since our first engagement with you on this issue over a year ago, we have endeavoured to support your examination of it to the fullest.The Central Bank’s role in this issue is governed by EU law. The EU Prospectus Regulation sets out harmonised EU laws with respect to securities which are the subject of that regulation. This is a part of the EU Capital Markets Union. Each Member State of the EU must appoint a competent authority in that jurisdiction. The Central Bank has been appointed as the competent authority in Ireland for the purposes of the EU Prospectus Regulation and must carry out its functions and duties as provided for under that Regulation.At all times, we have been obliged to carry out the statutory tasks and functions which have been assigned to us. We have to work within the law and we have carefully and comprehensively discharged our obligations under the EU Prospectus Regulation.As set out in my recent letter to the Committee, there are a number of important over-arching points that I would like to highlight, specifically the Central Bank’s role in the transfer of approval process, our professional secrecy obligations, and the framework of EU Regulations within which we operate.First, Article 20(8) of the EU Prospectus Regulation provides for the transfer of the approval of a prospectus on the request of an issuer to the competent authority of another Member State. Any such transfer is subject to prior notification to ESMA and the agreement of the competent authority to whom the approval function is to be transferred.In this process, the competent authority of the home Member State only approves the transfer to the competent authority of another Member State but does not approve the prospectus that is issued. The competent authority of the transferee Member State reviews and decides whether to approve the prospectus.In this framework, the Central Bank’s role was limited to transferring the role of approving the 2025 Prospectus to the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier in Luxembourg (the CSSF). The Central Bank did not have any role in the review or approval of the 2025 Prospectus and did not receive any draft of that document. It was a matter for the CSSF to independently carry out the review and approval process.There are two distinct and separate steps in the transfer of approval process. The first is the transfer of approval of the prospectus to another competent authority. The second is the review and approval of the prospectus by that other authority. In carrying out its role of reviewing and approving the relevant prospectus, the CSSF is entirely independent of the Central Bank.Second, the Central Bank is subject to confidentiality obligations pursuant to the EU Prospectus Regulation and Section 33AK of the Central Bank Act 1942. Those obligations restrict us from disclosing confidential information obtained in the performance of our functions. The correspondence between the Central Bank and the State of Israel and between the Central Bank and the CSSF also falls within confidentiality restrictions. Within our legal obligations, we have sought, to put as much information as possible with regard to this matter into the public domain.Third, one of the functions that we are required to carry out under the Prospectus Regulation is to consider transfer of approval requests. When considering transfer of approval requests, we consider the connectivity of the prospectus with the jurisdiction from which and to which it is seeking a transfer.In the case of the State of Israel transfer of approval request, the issuer decided that it would cease from 1 September 2025 making offers to the public under its prospectus in Ireland. The bonds to be issued under the 2025 Prospectus may only be offered to the public in Austria, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.In circumstances where the State of Israel proposed to discontinue offers to the public under its prospectus in Ireland, the Central Bank approved the transfer of approval of the prospectus under the EU Prospectus Regulation.Finally, the Central Bank reviewed the recommendations in the report issued by this Committee in the context of its functions and with regard to the prospectus it approved for the State of Israel on 2 September 2024 which expired on 1 September 2025. However we had no role in the review and approval of the 2025 prospectus.We are happy to take your questions.

Last week I was in Washington at the latest Annual Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as the latest (and final under the South African Presidency) meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. These get-togethers (whether at the IMF or the G20) bring Finance Ministers and central banks to the same table and are an important opportunity for dialogue on key economic and financial issues. The backdrop to this year’s meetings was a global economy fragmenting along geopolitical lines, a trend that has accelerated this year, with implications for economies big and small. As a highly open and very well-connected economy with a significant financial system, these global developments matter to Ireland.The global economy and financial system Overall, the IMF’s message was of a resilient global economy but with underlying fragilities. Its latest projections for global growth have been revised upward relative to 6 months ago, but are lower than 12 months ago due to the intervening policy shifts. It will, though, take time to understand the full effects of the changing global trading framework. The US economy has started to show signs of a slowdown, although the (remarkable) investment in AI is masking some of the slowdown in other investments. Global imbalances (essentially the fact that some countries have persistent current account deficits, spending more on foreign goods and services than they earn – while others have surpluses) were a topic of discussion throughout the week (and will continue to be an area of focus for the Fund and the G20).From a financial stability perspective, the IMF highlighted the risks from stretched asset valuations, growing pressure in sovereign bond markets, and the increasing role of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) as market makers, liquidity providers and intermediaries in private credit, real estate, and crypto markets. I was struck by the potential for the vulnerabilities in the system to interact, in particular the combination of an AI boom (now with a growing role for debt financing), and the growth in private credit (with opaque lending standards), crypto markets and (increasing) sovereign debt.  We will need to keep a very close eye on these developments which, on the face of it, look uncomfortably familiar. Key themes Outside of the main meetings, three themes dominated my conversations: technology, NBFIs and institutional credibility.Not surprisingly, technology developments were a big theme, not least on payments.  Discussions with peers, with industry and with academia covered the rapidly evolving landscape (stablecoins, tokenised deposits, central bank digital currencies) and the implications for public policy outcomes, as well as the cross-border elements and the regulatory approaches by different jurisdictions.  This is an area which the Central Bank is focused on, reflecting the breadth of our mandate and the need to consider the issues from a consumer, investor, financial stability and macroeconomic perspective. Inevitably AI was also a big topic, with a focus on its potential to boost productivity and growth, but countries also need to be prepared and to have the right policies in place to protect consumers and prevent against divergence both within and across countries as well as managing the risks that increasing debt financing may pose. Invariably, there was continued focus on different dimensions of NBFIs where vulnerabilities are seen to be building up. The opacity of private credit markets was an issue of focus (not surprisingly in view of the collapse of First Brands at the start of the week) as was the growth of NBFIs investing in sovereign and corporate debt markets. There were calls across the meetings for implementing the agreed international standards to develop resilience in the sector, an area the Central Bank has been focused on for some time.Finally, institutional credibility and multilateralism. There was a greater focus than in previous years on the important role that institutions play in providing economic frameworks that support stability. Central bank independence was a topic of discussion, as was the IMF’s role to promote global and macroeconomic stability and provide independent policy advice for every single member. I have long appreciated the IMF’s commitment to being a trusted advisor and providing candid assessments across the globeSome reflectionsLast week’s meetings reinforced for me some clear priorities for Irish and European economic policy, which I reflected in my speech at the Atlantic Council. First and foremost, policy needs to focus on the fundamentals, managing the short term while planning for the medium term, ensuring our frameworks are fit-for-purpose and learning the lessons of the past while preparing for the future. Successful economies need stable and sustainable macroeconomic frameworks and sound fiscal and monetary policies, along with stable and well-regulated financial systems and well-functioning markets. For Ireland, against a backdrop of strong economic and population growth, continuing to attract investment will require a particular focus on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing as the Government set out in its recent Budget.  As part of the EU, Ireland is also part of the world’s largest single market and there is untapped potential in it integrating further in that market.  For Europe, it remains essential that we respond to the challenges that Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta highlighted in their reports last year.  As the world’s largest trade bloc – accounting for around 15.8 per cent of world trade – deepening the Single Market offers a hedge against broader global trade fragmentation, helping to reduce an over-reliance on external dependencies, fostering innovation, and promoting stable growth.  Perhaps most of all delivering the Draghi/Letta agenda is about realising the potential of the European economy for its citizens. Finally, last week’s meetings were set against a (continuing) global macroeconomic environment of uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts. They reaffirmed for me the value of engaging with global institutions to address shared challenges. Operating in a small open economy means we value relationships that support our commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, collaboration and understanding. In that context I was particularly pleased to sign an MOU with the South African Reserve Bank; with a view to share knowledge, experiences and methodologies as we both develop our sustainable finance frameworks and approach to emerging technologies and the evolving payments landscape. More change in the global environment is guaranteed, and the stage is now set for building new relationships, adopting new frameworks and creating new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit.

Promontoria Finn Limited (Clone) - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Deutsche Bank Wealth Management (CLONE) / Deutsche Bank AG (CLONE) / DB UK Bank Limited (CLONE) - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Colman Doyle Finance Limited (Clone) - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Gett Finance - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

IntroductionGood morning everyone and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today.1We find ourselves in interesting times.The global economy has been fragmenting along geopolitical lines for nearly a decade, but this trend has accelerated, marking a swift transition with implications across the short, medium, and long term for economies big and small, alongside the other significant – and more familiar – economic transitions of ageing societies, a changing climate and an increasingly digitalised world. Recognising and understanding these transitions is fundamental if we are to shape policies that build economic resilience and enable households, businesses, and communities to navigate challenges and seize opportunities. In my remarks today I will provide a perspective of a small, highly open, highly globalised economy to these global shifts, albeit one that is both part of the world’s largest single market and which has particularly strong trans-Atlantic links with the US. I will conclude with some thoughts on the continuing need for a multilateral approach and taking the opportunity to create new paradigms. Finding opportunities in the face of headwindsFor Ireland, as one of those highly open and very well-connected economies, an environment of trade barriers, and policy uncertainty and unpredictability is unwelcome and entails economic costs. In 2023, almost 17 per cent of Ireland’s exports were to the US, with 36 and 12 per cent to the rest of the EU and the UK, respectively. Around a quarter of employment in Ireland is in US firms.2 So, as well as the ramifications of the wider trend towards more fragmented global trade, understanding the implications of changes in US policy have been key areas of focus for us at the Central Bank of Ireland. Some of the key findings from our analysis offer lessons of broader relevance, particularly for small, open economies.First, to understand the potential impact of US tariffs on Ireland, it is important to have a clear picture of the Irish economy. It comprises a small number of large, productive, globally oriented foreign-owned multinational enterprises (MNEs), alongside domestic Irish-owned firms that dominate employment. MNEs make up 3.2 per cent of active firms, but around one quarter of aggregate employment. However, MNEs are not homogenous. We estimate that roughly half of MNE workers are employed in non-tradable sectors, largely serving the local economy, for example in the retail and accommodation sector. This type of ‘horizontal’ foreign direct investment (FDI) is relatively insensitive to tariffs. However, the most material risk to the Irish economy comes from the other half, who use Ireland as an export platform for their global sales, serving the rest of the EU, US, and broader international markets. These firms are concentrated in sectors such as pharmaceuticals (‘pharma’) and information technology, directly exposed to tariffs and other US industrial policy choices. US-owned firms account for 70 per cent of employment in these export-oriented MNEs and over 80 per cent of capital investment. As I said earlier, Ireland’s strong links with the US stand out in an EU context: we have the highest concentration of US MNE activity of any EU country, both in manufacturing and outside manufacturing. Over the last number of months, we have looked at the potential effects of tariffs on this type of FDI, particularly in the pharmaceutical and medical devices sectors. Our analysis suggests that 15 per cent tariffs – as per the recent agreement – will reduce exports to the US. But they are not prohibitive to trade. For one thing these firms have already made huge capital investments in setting up their production facilities in Ireland. Another is that US tariffs do not diminish Ireland’s attractiveness as an export platform to the rest of the EU or other non-US destinations.3More than half of Ireland’s pharma exports are destined for the rest of the EU or other non-US countries and so are not subject to any new tariffs. In addition, while we know that US tariffs can affect the pricing of pharma products, our analysis also shows that the sensitivity of Irish pharma export volumes to tariffs is likely to be relatively low in the short-run given the highly specialised nature of pharmaceuticals produced in Ireland.Irish-owned firmsWhile MNEs understandably get a lot of attention, given they are the primary source of Ireland’s exposure to US tariffs, it is also important to examine the exposure of domestic, Irish-owned, firms. Our analysis shows that, although they are not as export and import-intensive as foreign multinationals, over 80 per cent of workers in Irish-owned firms in manufacturing, wholesale and retail participate in international trade, whether exporting or importing goods. The key difference between such exporters and MNEs is that the former are far more likely to export to our nearest neighbours geographically – the rest of the EU and the UK – rather than the US market. Only 12 per cent of Irish-owned firm exports are to the US, which is a lot smaller than the 30 percent we see in aggregate. In total, 5 per cent of employees work in Irish-owned firms that export to the US. However, Irish firms that export to the US tend to be among the most productive and geographically diversified Irish exporters. Their exports to the US account for only a third of their total exports on average, and under a tenth of their total sales, some of which are also directed to the domestic market. Taking this into account, we estimate that less than 1 per cent of workers in Irish firms are directly tied to US exporting activity. A key question is whether such firms will be able to adapt to tariffs and potentially diversify to other markets. Of course, the extent to which they have to do that will partly depend on US importers and ultimately US consumers but recent survey evidence – before the EU-US trade deal – suggests they will be able to do so.4 It found that one third of manufacturing firms in the Irish market were already taking steps to diversify towards other markets. Notably, Irish firms exporting to the US had lower production, employment, and price expectations than other exporters, but this was entirely driven by those that were not diversifying.One other notable result from this research is the two-sided nature of international trade within firms. Around 98 per cent of manufacturing exporters also import intermediate inputs. Irish firms exporting to the US import almost four times more from the US than other exporters. This highlights how interdependent global supply chains have become, and how difficult it can be to anticipate the ripple effects of tariffs and other similar policies.Projections for the Irish economyWhat does this imply for our economic projections? While the economic outlook for Ireland is not as favourable as it would have been had tariffs not been introduced, the effective tariff rates now in place covering EU-US trade are not prohibitive to trade. However, policy uncertainty remains elevated, even if it has fallen from its peak earlier in the year.Overall, the domestic economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, but headwinds persist. Continued expected growth in real disposable incomes, amid a stable labour market – labour force participation is high, and unemployment is low – supports continued growth in consumer spending. But, some signs of easing momentum are emerging and supply-side constraints to sustainable growth in the domestic economy remain prominent.Overall, our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.5The new agreement between the EU and US, although yet to be fully implemented, is expected to moderately reduce Irish growth in the medium-to-long run, driven by activity in MNE-dominated sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals and chemicals. The current tariffs of 15 per cent lead to reduction of around 1 per cent in Irish economic output relative to a no-tariff scenario over the long-term. Diverted exports to markets outside the US partially offset the direct impact of the tariffs.Consumption and particularly investment, on the other hand, both fall faster and further than GDP, as firms and households respond more rapidly to the new environment, settling close to 2.5 and 3.5 per cent respectively below the baseline. We also anticipate that tariffs will lead to a moderate structural shift, with reduced manufacturing activity and increased service sector growth as resources are reallocated in response to these global shocks. This reallocation helps to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs on goods. Longer-term, economic policymaking faces a less-integrated global economy. Geoeconomic fragmentation is one of a number of key structural changes – along with population ageing, a changing climate change, and the ongoing march of digital technologies – that the global economy will have to adapt to. In the case of Ireland, capital investment and productivity have historically accounted for around 80 percent of Irish economic growth.6 So, in fact, the main risk for Irish economy from this fragmentation is lower investment flows. A geopolitical shift towards ‘friend-shoring’ in the EU could potentially help compensate any reduction in future investment by US MNEs, although our research suggests that this regionalisation of economic linkages is likely to be inflationary and could weaken economic growth across the euro area.7The Euro areaGeoeconomic fragmentation of course does not just impact Ireland. In the case of the euro area, it poses several risks to the inflation and growth outlook. As US tariffs are global in nature, there is the potential that trade diversion is stronger than the current (rather limited) effect assumed in the latest ECB staff projections. Scenario analysis suggests that this would have only a mild effect on the euro area, with increased exports to the US offset by weaker exports to China and the rest of the world. Apart from diverting to different markets, Chinese firms could also lower their export prices to offset the effect of US tariffs. In this scenario, an increase in (cheaper) Chinese imports has a large negative impact on inflation and growth.8And of course, there is the possibility that tariffs may induce bottlenecks as firms restructure their global supply chains. A scenario resembling pandemic-era disruption would see inflation rise considerably, when accounting for input-output linkages through production networks, but have a minimal effect on growth. As for our current monetary policy, at our last meeting in September, my colleagues and I on the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged. We continue to be in a good place with the disinflationary process behind us, the European economy showing resilience and inflation where we want it to be. Real euro area GDP growth is projected to average 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1 per cent in 2026 and 1.3 per cent in 2027. Surveys suggest the economy maintains positive underlying momentum. While the trade agreement with the US has reduced uncertainty somewhat, the overall impact of the change in the global policy environment will only become clear over time. Risks remain that renewed trade tensions could further dampen exports, investment, and consumption. By contrast, higher than expected defence and infrastructure spending and productivity-enhancing reforms would add to growth. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. In particular, we will base our interest rate decisions on our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Policy recommendations Where does that leave us? The Irish economy faces the current challenges from a position of relative strength, which policymakers can harness in supporting the economy to adapt over both the short and long run. Ireland has benefitted from decades of FDI-led growth, and its interconnections with the US economy and its membership of the EU have led to higher productivity, investment, and human capital. This, along with Ireland’s open, flexible, and skilled labour force, creates strong conditions to adapt to geoeconomic shifts. Nonetheless, a slowdown in inward investment flows would reduce Ireland’s long-run growth potential. Global fragmentation could also affect other long-term goals, such as the transition to net zero, by restricting the supply of critical inputs for new technologies.It also brings to the forefront the need for clear priorities in Irish and European economic policy. First and foremost, policy needs to focus on the fundamentals, managing the short term while planning for the medium term, ensuring our frameworks are fit-for-purpose and learning the lessons of the past while preparing for the future. Successful economies need stable and sustainable macroeconomic frameworks and sound fiscal and monetary policies, along with stable and well-regulated financial systems and well-functioning markets.For Ireland, against a backdrop of strong economic and population growth, continuing to attract investment will require a particular focus on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing as the Government set out in its Budget last week. Of course, we shouldn’t just stop at the border. Ireland is part of the world’s largest single market and there is untapped potential both in it integrating further into that market  as well as  in overall European economic activity.9 One year on from Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta’s reports on the future of the European economy, it remains essential that we make progress on their recommendations, if we want to tap – and indeed realise – that potential.  As the world’s largest trade bloc – accounting for around 15.8 per cent of world trade10 – deepening the Single Market offers a hedge against broader global trade fragmentation, helping to reduce an over-reliance on external dependencies, fostering innovation, and promoting stable growth. That includes realising the potential of the EU’s capital markets and unlocking the almost €12 trillion in savings and cash deposits held by Europeans.11The need for collective solutions in the face of global challengesAt this point in the twenty first century, it is undoubtedly the case that the most significant headwinds we face today, be they from geoeconomic fragmentation or managing the challenges of a changing climate or harnessing digitalisation and innovation, are global in nature and demand collective solutions. This is precisely where organisations such as the Atlantic Council and in fact the IMF – at the start of its Annual Meetings this week - have important roles to play. The Council’s mission – to promote constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs and provide a forum for navigating the economic and political changes defining our times – is precisely what we need today so that we help to shape policy choices and strategies that create a more free, secure, and prosperous world.The IMF’s convening power brings us all to the same table, offering a vital forum for dialogue and coordinated action among its members. It’s not a theoretical exercise but the essential work of managing a more uncertain world, one that requires us to see past domestic concerns to the broader interconnected reality. The IMF’s role of promoting stability and cooperation for every single member and acting as an independent and trusted advisor is more critical now than ever, and I have long appreciated its dedication to providing candid assessments across the globe. st is earned through transparency, accountability, and a demonstrated credible commitment to act in, and serve, the best interest of society. I value this clear-eyed view and the stability it underpins.ConclusionSmall, open economies value engagement with global institutions to address shared challenges. Whether we are central bankers or government officials, we value the relationships – whether international financial institutions or trans-Atlantic councils – that support our commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, collaboration and understanding. Diversity of experience and diversity of thought strengthens us both as institutions and as individuals. We need to recognise that the world which we grew up with has changed and that, coupled with the ongoing transitions we face, more change is guaranteed. I suggest that our energies should be tilted towards the challenge of creating the new world ahead of us rather than the comfort of preserving the old. The stage is now set for building new relationships, adopting new frameworks, and creating new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit. I know that Irish institutions are committed to international cooperation, and we will continue to advocate for – and play a key role in – developing the new multilateral order that our economies need and our communities want.1 Thanks to Cian Ruane, Thomas Conefrey, Conor O’Shea, and Martin O’Brien for their help in preparing these remarks.2 CSO Publication: Business in Ireland3 Signed Article: On the Fault Line? The Irish economy in a time of geoeconomic fragmentation - CBI (2025) - See Box C “Multinational Expansion in the Era of Trade Conflicts” based on the model in Garetto, Oldenski, Ma and Ramondo (2025). 4 Survey data on exporter behaviour is sourced from a special module of the monthly European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) sponsored by the Central Bank of Ireland. See figure 10 in Signed Article Q3 2025.5 Quarterly Bulletin 3 20256 Conefrey et al., 2024.7 Clancy, Smith and Valenta, 2024 8 Scenario analysis conducted as part of the ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area - September 20259 See President Lagarde’s remarks at the Bank of Finland’s 4th International Monetary Policy Conference.10 The EU’s role in global trade11 Governor Makhlouf remarks at NABE  

Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf spoke today at the Atlantic Council during IMF World Bank Week in Washington DC.Speaking ahead of the event, Governor Makhlouf said: “Ireland is a small, highly open, highly globalised and very well-connected economy in an increasingly fragmented world.   An environment of trade barriers and policy uncertainty and unpredictability has economic costs for us. Our analysis suggests that 15 per cent tariffs will reduce our exports to the US. But they are not prohibitive to trade, and our latest projections anticipate a slowdown from 2.9 per cent growth this year to just over 2 per cent in the coming years.“This serves to highlight that while the US market is important for Ireland, it is far from our only one.  “Ireland is part of the world’s largest single market. We are facing the current challenges from a position of relative strength, having benefitted from decades of FDI-led growth.  We have a flexible and skilled labour force, strong economic and population growth, and a welcome, intense focus from Government on closing infrastructure gaps in water, energy, transport, and housing. “However, it remains essential that Ireland integrates further into the EU’s single market and for the Single Market itself to deliver on its potential as set out in last year’s recommendations from Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta.”“New ways of working and new relationships are vital in the face of the headwinds we see globally.  “That is why institutions like the Atlantic Council and the IMF are important.  We in Ireland value our engagement with global institutions and we value relationships that support our commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, collaboration and understanding.“The IMF’s convening power brings us all to the same table, offering a vital forum for dialogue and coordinated action. It’s not a theoretical exercise.  It is the essential work that helps us see past our domestic concerns to the broader interconnected reality.”Commenting on current monetary policy, Governor Makhlouf said: “We continue to be in a good place with the disinflationary process behind us, the European economy showing resilience and inflation where we want it to be.” “We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”Concluding, Governor Makhlouf said: “We need to recognise that the world which we grew up with has changed and that more change is guaranteed. “I suggest that our energies should be tilted towards the challenge of creating the new world ahead of us rather than the comfort of preserving the old. The stage is now set for building new relationships, adopting new frameworks, and creating new paradigms for the world that our children and grandchildren will inhabit. I know that Irish institutions are committed to international cooperation, and we will continue to advocate for – and play a key role in – developing the new multilateral order that our economies need and our communities want.”ENDSFurther InformationRead the full text of Governor Makhlouf’s speech on our website.