Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsAfter a very confusing week, Traders looking for certainty could not find what they wanted with the FOMC Rate DecisionGeopolitics remain cloudy and risk assets are not able to withstand the fundamentals, pushing Oil to $110 and higher for longer rates Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.After an incredibly confusing start to the week, traders desperately searching for a lifeline of macroeconomic certainty found absolutely no comfort in today's highly anticipated FOMC policy decision.Taking a step back, Stock Investors (particularly in tech) aren't seemingly so concerned about these themes, but some fundamentals are still confusing and could be a factor in the return of broader Market anxiety. Nasdaq Daily Chart. April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Federal Reserve officially held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range.In what marks Jerome Powell’s final FOMC press conference, the outgoing Chair is currently at the podium and announced that he would stay at the Board of Governors for the time that Kevin Warsh gets comfortable with his new role.The committee offered zero forward guidance regarding the timing of future moves, explicitly citing the heightened, compounding uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Middle East developments.While Powell noted that job gains remain low on average, the broader unemployment rate is little changed, creating a highly resilient economic backdrop, with Employment demand also easing throughout the last year.The Chair is hinting at the increasingly conflicting mandates of sticky inflation and a tight labor market, but one thing is crystal clear for traders searching for clues: rate cuts are absolutely not on the agenda as long as the Economy grows. And Powell made quite a few mentions on that page.With the current Fed Chair exiting the stage, market doves looking for an easing lifeline will now be forced to lean entirely on Kevin Warsh's future promises and expected political bias to price in any type of dovish movement.The Macro context The broader macroeconomic picture is still warped by an intensely cloudy geopolitical landscape. Risk assets are quite resilient, withstanding these toxic fundamentals reflected by WTI Crude Oil pushing back up to the $110 handle.The logistical nightmare in the Middle East is showing zero signs of easing.The US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz continues, and President Trump just doubled down on his maximum pressure campaign, stating firmly today that he "will not lift the naval blockade without a deal on the nuclear program."So essentially, the blockade should hold until Iran economically chokes out from their Oil gluts and are forced to come back to the negotiation table. Oil 2H Chart. April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite these glaring fundamental and geopolitical roadblocks, US stock markets miraculously remain at historic highs.Investors are operating in an ever-more ecstatic state of expectation, relying on the tech sector to mask the underlying macroeconomic panic.However, with valuations stretched to the absolute limit and the peace trade stalled near all-time highs, Wall Street is walking on thin ice.Any negative surprise from this point forward could trigger a brutal, market-wide hangover – At least, the FOMC did not bring the negative catalyst that it could have triggered.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:April FOMC US Index Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Bank of Canada neutral hold (2.25%) – USD/CAD rallies to 1.37 – Press Conference coming upChart alert: Silver (XAG/USD) rout extends below $75.90 key intraday resistance, bearish trend intactNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Only Nasdaq is withstanding the rallies in Crude Oil while European, Canadian and Japanese Markets are having a tough time – They remain close to their all-time highs, so that gives space for movement in the event of a turn lowerDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is still effectively stuck within its 98.00 to 99.30 Range with the fundamental and geopolitical foundations not changing.Expect this range to hold, particularly if the US-Iran situation doesn't change until then.Look out for ranges in mean-reverting price action in FX.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.16 4H 200-period MA99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot and 4H 50-period MA98.00 Major SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, April 29, 2026 - Source: TradingView The USD recovered quite well from its previous week's losses, particularly against currencies with lower Central Bank yields including the JPY, NZD and CHF.The action is still mixed after the FOMC, but the path remains tilted to the upside, as the mean-reversion higher continues.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, April 29, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The CAD continues to rebound against its Major FX peers, sustained by the elevated WTI Crude prices, exploding orders for its Heavy Crude and solid communications from Governor Macklem this morning.Loonie strength should maintain as long as Crude Oil remains above $70 per barrel.To learn more, check out our post-Bank of Canada USD/CAD analysis!US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American calendar continues to provide content for CAD and USD traders, with Canadian and US GDP coming up tomorrow morning.For the rest, PMI figures will be the main Macro figures for traders to assess the effect of recent wartime economic activity.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Silver underperforms despite geopolitical risk: Silver (XAG/USD) has lagged major assets, falling sharply since the US–Iran conflict and failing to attract safe-haven demand, with momentum—not fundamentals—driving price action.Bearish trend remains intact technically: A breakdown below the 20-day moving average and rejection at the 50-day MA signal the end of the prior rebound, reinforcing a broader corrective downtrend from January highs.Downside risks dominate below key resistance: Holding below $75.90 keeps the bearish bias intact, with potential further declines toward $69.64 and $67.70, while only a sustained break above resistance would negate the negative outlook. Precious metals, gold and silver, have failed to ignite a similar risk-on rally in terms of magnitude and duration as seen on the benchmark US stock indices and other major stock indices after the “fragile” ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran that has been in place on 8 April 2026.Silver flipped to become an underperforming asset class Fig. 1: Silver & other major cross assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: Silver & other major cross assets year-to-date performances as of 28 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The US-Iran war started on 28 February 2026. Using the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 28 April 2026, spot silver (LBMA) was the worst performer among other key cross assets, with a loss of 19% (see Fig. 1).On a year-to-date performance basis as of 28 April 2026, spot silver’s gain has been reduced miserably to 1.7% (see Fig. 2).Despite the geopolitical gridlock between the US and Iran, and any miscalculation from either side is likely to trigger a rise in geopolitical risk premiums, we are not seeing any safe-haven demand push towards precious metals at this juncture.Hence, it is the momentum factor that is driving the direction of silver at this juncture and overrides fundamental elements.Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine silver (XAG/USD)’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).Silver (XAG/USD) – End of corrective rebound from 23 March 2026 low Fig. 3: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Fig. 4: Silver (XAG/USD) medium-term trend as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of silver (XAG/USD) have staged a bearish breakdown below its 20-day moving average on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, coupled with an earlier rejection around its 50-day moving average on 16 April 2026, suggesting that the 36% corrective rebound from the 29 April 2026 low has been damaged (see Fig. 4).Start of another minor bearish impulsive down move sequence with a multi-month medium-term corrective decline structure that is still intact since its current all-time high of $121.67 printed on 29 January 2026Watch 75.90 key short-term pivotal resistance on silver (XAG/USD) for another potential down leg to expose the next intermediate supports at 69.64 and 67.70/66.83 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 75.90 invalidates the bearish scenario for a sequence up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 78.30 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on silver (XAG/USD) Since its “bearish flag” and 20-day moving average breakdown, the price actions of silver (XAG/USD) have been oscillating within a minor descending channel.Price actions have not reached the lower boundary of the minor descending channel which confluences at around the 67.70/66.83 support zone.The daily RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out a bearish momentum condition and has not reached its oversold region (below the 30 level). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil extends its persistent bounce in the absence of any diplomatic advancements, breaking the $100 barrierThe energy commodity market is seeing its rules change completely, with the UAE quitting OPEC+ as producers prepare for the end of the warExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity It is a pivotal week for global Markets, and after weeks of confusing fundamental catalysts, some regime-changing news is gripping Energy Commodities.The UAE just announced it will quit the OPEC+ cartel amid a sharp rise in Oil prices, now above $100 per barrel.The OPEC+ organization aims to regulate Crude production and prices for mutual interests, but with the Middle East conflict completely changing the rules of the game, the regime installed in 1960 is progressively tumbling.The cartel, now left with 11 members (+ Russia), notably including Venezuela and Iran, has seen large challenges in recent years with production disagreements, internal foul plays, some members not respecting their quotas and limits.The idea is that the most powerful producing countries had already begun to try to price out smaller producers through overproduction and price declines, a trend seen in 2025, which brought Oil prices to 5-year lows.And this already led to the exit of Indonesia, Qatar, and others in recent years.Add to this the largely divided geopolitics of recent years, with decades of peace turning into global instability, and you get the recipe for some Market-breaking news. WTI Crude since 1960, the formation of OPEC – Source: TradingView. April 28, 2026 The Iran war is priced to end in recent months, if not weeks, and in the macroeconomic game, there is no place for those who don't prepare.If and when Iran turns in for a deal, there will be blood in the Market. While the diplomatic attempts and news are still in a stalemate, with the US maintaining its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to chokehold Iran's economy, the World is still operating, and Oil producers are progressively preparing for what comes next.Trump just posted that Iran was pleading for the US to reopen the Strait promptly to move on to the next phase of the negotiations.And it seems that a large pumping frenzy will reward those who are isolating themselves from quotas and limits – see what's already happening in the US and Canada, and they are largely winning from these Middle East dynamics.With changing fundamentals, the Market is in a repricing mode and is subject to high volatility.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue. Read More:Amazon (AMZN) Technical: Uptrend and outperformance factor intact above 231.00 key supportGold (XAU/USD) Selloff Deepens: Technical breakdown and rising Oil prices accelerates bearish momentumEUR/USD: Cautiously bullish above 1.1700 ahead of FOMC and ECBUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 28, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI rallied frantically since its Friday 17th spike down to $82, now trading 23% higher as supply droughts persist and the geopolitical cloud fails to dissipate.While conditions allowed for a grind higher, at current levels, there doesn't seem to be much interest for bulls to extend the action higher, particularly after the recent news brought an end to the move-up.Check out the large bearish divergence which may confirm an end to this ongoing rally.Explore the trading levels, then take a closer look to the 1H timeframe for a few scenarios.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$104 next-mini resistance (morning highs!)$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124Support Levels$98 to $100 Resistance (now Pivot4H 50-period MA $97.30War Support $93.00 - $95$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – April 28, 2026. Source: TradingView Crude has formed an upward channel in recent action, but the most important development to watch is the fact that bulls could not push above its central line, hence maintaining weak momentum.This hints at higher odds of a downside break, with confirmation below the 50-Hour MA ($99.13).Breaking the channel should maintain a rangebound price action between ~$93 and $103Any break and close above/below these areas suggest of renewed volatility and changing dynamics, necessitating further analysis.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Strong outperformance with bullish trend intact: Amazon (AMZN) leads the “Magnificent 7” with solid gains, and its medium-term uptrend remains intact above the key $231 support, supported by bullish moving average crossovers and sustained relative strength versus the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).Earnings focus on AI monetisation and margins: Markets are watching AWS growth (especially tied to OpenAI partnerships), advertising strength, and whether heavy capex (~$200B) can translate into profit growth without eroding free cash flow.Upside intact but risks tied to execution: While no clear exhaustion signals are present despite overbought conditions, a break below $231 could trigger a deeper correction, whereas a move above $275 opens the path toward higher resistance levels. Amazon (AMZN) is one of the top performers among the “Magnificent 7” cohort of mega-cap US stocks; it ranked number one with a gain of 24.3%, slightly ahead of NVIDIA’s return of 22.3% from the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 27 April 2026 (see Fig. 1), as stock traders shrugged off the US-Iran war fatigue and focus on upcoming earnings releases, guidance and AI infrastructure spending.Amazon’s year-to-date performance as of 27 April 2026 stood at 13.1%, just behind first-ranked NVIDIA’s gain of 16.1% (see Fig. 2). Fig. 1: Amazon, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 27 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: Amazon, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices YTD performances as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Amazon (AMZN) prepares to report its Q1 2026 results on Wednesday, 29 April, after the close of the US session. The market is effectively looking for a "vibe check" on whether its massive AI spending is translating into accelerating profits. After a rocky Q4 2025 where the stock took a hit due to heavy investment guidance, traders are laser-focused on efficiency and AWS momentumThe "vital signs": Q1 consensus estimates Traders are benchmarking tomorrow's report against these core figures:Revenue: ~$177.8 billion (expected +14% y/y)Earnings per share (EPS): ~$1.63 (expected +2.5% y/y)AWS revenue: Target of ~$36.7 billion (expected ~25% growth)Key fundamentals to watch:AWS & the "OpenAI factor" Following the strategic $50 billion partnership with OpenAI and expanded Anthropic ties earlier this year, the spotlight is on AWS reacceleration.Traders want: Proof that being the exclusive cloud distributor for OpenAI "Frontier" models is stealing market share back from Microsoft Azure.Price impact: A growth rate above 26% would likely trigger a "relief rally," signaling that Amazon's proprietary Trainium3 chips are successfully lowering costs for enterprise AI customers.The advertising juggernaut Amazon’s ad business is no longer just a "side hustle"; it’s the primary driver of margin expansion.Traders want: Growth exceeding 21% and commentary on how Prime Video ad integration is scaling.Price impact: Because advertising has significantly higher margins than retail, a beat here can offset misses in other areas, providing a "cushion" for the stock price.The $200 Billion "Elephant in the Room" (Capex) Management previously signalled a staggering $200 billion capital outlay for 2026.Traders want: Assurance that this spending won't incinerate Free Cash Flow (FCF). In 2025, FCF saw a sharp decline, which spooked institutional investors.Price impact: If guidance suggests capex is ramping up even faster without a corresponding jump in revenue, expect the stock to face "valuation gravity", even if they beat on EPS.Medium-term technical outlook of Amazon (1 to 3 weeks) Fig. 3: Amazon (AMZN) medium-term trend as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The magnificent rally of 34.7% from its 17 February 2026 low to a fresh all-time close high of 264.00 printed on Friday, 24 February 2026 (surpassed the prior all-time high of 258.60 on 30 November 2025) has led the price actions of AMZN to be in an overbought territory.However, there are no clear bullish exhaustion conditions yet on AMZN, which suggests that the medium-term bullish impulsive up move sequence may continue.Watch the 231.00 key medium-term pivotal support (also the zone around the 20-day and 200-day moving averages) on AMZN. A clearance above 275.28 sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at 293.22 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, failure to hold and a daily close below 231.00 invalidates the bullish scenario to open scope for a deeper corrective decline towards the next medium-term support at 218.94 (also the 50-day moving average), and even 196.00 next (the lower boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel from 6 January 2023 low).Key elements to support the medium-term bullish bias on Amazon (AMZN) AMZN’s 20-day moving average has staged a bullish crossover condition above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.So far, there is no bearish divergence condition on its overbought reading (above 70 level) seen on its daily RSI momentum indicator.The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of Amazon against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has trended higher above its zero line since 9 April 2026 and is still holding above its 50-day moving average, which suggests the ongoing medium-term outperformance of AMZN against the SPY remains intact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are somewhat easing after their past week of over-ecstatic gains in the midst of continued geopolitical confusionTraders are preparing for a very important earnings week (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon)Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock benchmarks are somewhat easing today, taking a seemingly logical breather after last week's run of over-ecstatic gains (particularly in the tech sector), with other global indexes closing their sessions mixed. Up until now, the market has been stubbornly acting as if the ongoing conflict in Iran is a complete non-factor, but that blissful ignorance is beginning to show cracks in the midst of continued geopolitical confusion. Despite a flurry of weekend diplomatic announcements, the overarching peace narrative remains frustratingly uncertain. Reality is slowly setting back in as the week begins on a softer tone, heavily punctuated by WTI Crude extending to two-week highs. After all, physical droughts are still a key factor for global economies and while the US Oil sector shines from increased orders, there is still quite some anxiety with some ~14 million barrels still missing with the Hormuz closure. WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 27, 2026. Source: TradingView Adding fair pressure to the intraday anxiety is the looming barrage of mega-cap earnings. Traders are nervously preparing for a make-or-break week as the US Markets' absolute heavyweights—Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon—are all slated to publish their, with a massive concentration of these reports expected to hit the tape on Wednesday. After its relentless trading in the past week, the semiconductor sector is pulling back. Investors are actively taking chips off ahead of the game changing fundamental news releases – But the overall Market is still resilient, with rebalancing in Stocks rather than a full-on selloff.While the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 recently managed to print new records, the Dow Jones remains stuck in a choppy sideways range (easing from the 50,000 milestone), so investors will want to see a rebound there to maintain the high spirits. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Markets Today: Oil rises, DXY retreats ahead of a busy week that will test the FED and global central banksChart alert: AUD/USD kickstarts fresh bullish impulsive sequence above 0.7090 key supportMarkets Weekly Outlook - Can earnings outweigh geopolitical headwinds & Central Bank decisions?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:05) – Source: TradingView – April 27, 2026 As was explored in the introduction, semiconductors are taking a hit and this is marking quite a change compared to the past weeks where the sector was propulsing all US Indexes higher.With Financials earnings now done (except for Visa and Mastercard reporting tomorrow), there is some attraction back towards the sector amid a timid, defensive rebalancing.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView As can be seen with the many indecisions doji candles, the DJIA is evolving within an important 500 point consolidation.All there is to now is that traders can either trade the small range (tight stops and small size required) until news change the situation, or trade the breakout when it happens.49,000 is the bottom support (look at a close below the 4H 50-period MA)49,500 is the top resistanceDow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels4H 50-period MA (49,050)Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is actually showing decent potential for a reversal, with its overbought momentum now largely easing and sellers testing the lower bound of the peace-bull channel.Breaking it should bring fast-paced profit-taking towards the preceding all-time highs. Such would preferably be seen ahead of Wednesday's market close Mag 7 earnings.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 27,42427,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsDaily lows 27,120 (bearish below)Momentum Pivot at 27,000Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is actually showing the most resilience, attempting a break above its prior week's 6,165 all-time highs.Watch out for fakeouts, as traders will want to see a high volume breakout to assume an extension higher.A mini-bull channel is currently forming, but buyers will want to extend the action above its mid-line (6,185).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 7,185New all-time resistance 7,150 – 7,160 (breaking)Next key potential resistance 7,200Mini-channel highs 7,2560Support Levels7,100 psychological level and 4H 50-period MAPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil hangs around $95 right ahead of a high risk weekendContentious geopolitics are still influencing Oil prices with Strait of Hormuz blockades still having their effectExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity The weekend is here, and energy markets are holding their breath. WTI Crude is hovering uncomfortably around the $95 mark as the geopolitical standoff between Washington and Tehran remains incredibly tense.While Iran has already sent a delegation to Islamabad, they are actively playing hardball and have yet to officially confirm that they will actually sit down and exchange terms with the US representatives. Despite this diplomatic stalemate, the US is still sending two of its top diplomats to Pakistan with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Market participants will be watching the wire like hawks, desperately wanting to see concrete progress toward a finalized peace deal this weekend to avoid a massive gap on Monday's open.Odds for a Peace deal went down quite aggressively since last Friday, and that doesn't bode well for general Market sentiment. Odds for a Peace Deal by May 31 – Source: Polymarket. April 24, 2026 In the meantime, the Trump administration is still applying pressure on Iran to force a deal. The US Navy is maintaining a heavy maritime blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to completely prevent Iran from exploiting its geographic monopoly over the region. The blockade is in full force and the US military has blocked 34 tankers coming from Iranian ports, severely tightening the economic chokehold on Tehran.While global oil traffic is slowly redirecting toward North America—which is currently driving a still increasing $11 per barrel difference between WTI and Brent—global supply is still taking a severe hit. WTI-Brent Spread – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView With alternative pipelines still in the slow process of reopening, the International Energy Agency notes that the market is currently facing a still huge 13 million barrels per day drought compared to normal global flows.While slightly better economic fundamentals originally helped cool the extreme war premium, it turns out that the overarching narrative remains heavily blurry. Traders are still wondering exactly where to look, which is directly translating into a highly choppy and seesawing price action.As the situation has little odds to get more clear ahead of the weekend, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue. Read More:U.S. consumer sentiment under pressure from war and rising oil pricesNasdaq and Tech continue to outperform – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookThe calm before the storm? Key weekend risk incoming – Overnight Market CheckUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView After correcting to $83 lows just last Friday, sellers just couldn't maintain the high pressure fundamentals and this led to a 3-day bounce right back below the $100 level.As long as prices don't exceed that threshold, Markets should remain contained, but keep a close eye on that level as breaching it could lead to a large spike in volatility.Let's take a closer look.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView While sellers reappeared at the $98 to $100 resistance, they could not extend the pressure below the 4H 200-period MA ($96.82). The moving average is a key indicator to keep your eyes on to gauge intraday momentum in the commodity.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$98 to $100 Resistance (freshly rejected)$104 next-mini resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124Support Levels4H 200-period MA $96.82War Support $93.00 - $95$87 to $90 mini-Support (recent bounce)$82.80 to $84 micro-Support2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80$69 to $70 Final War Support1H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView While pre-weekend action brought bullish pressure to the upside, having broken the weekly upward trendline hints at a more balanced action ahead.Breaking $100 should see follow through all the way to $104, and the next step is at $106.On the other hand, rejecting below $97 marks higher chances of a $93 retest.Expect high-volatility gaps on Monday's session – Trading these could require savvy stop-orders. With heavy binary risk, make sure to keep your size under control.Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

On the daily chart, USD/CHF is in a recovery phase, currently sandwiched between the 50-day MA (0.7845) and 100-day MA (0.7865).The H4 chart shows a more defined bullish structure, featuring a "Golden Cross" (100-period MA above 200-period MA).Failure to hold above the 0.7846 short-term support would negate the bullish setup and likely lead to a retest of the 0.7828 support level.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?USD/CHF Daily Chart: Building a Base Above Key Support The daily timeframe shows USD/CHF in a recovery phase following the sharp sell-off witnessed in early 2026. After bottoming out near the 0.7600 handle, the pair has formed a series of higher lows, currently supported by an ascending trendline.Price action is currently sandwiched between the 50-day MA (0.7845) and the 100-day MA (0.7865). A daily candle close above the 100-day MA would be a significant bullish signal, suggesting a shift in medium-term momentum.However, the overhead 200-day MA at 0.7937 remains the "line in the sand" for bulls. Until that level is reclaimed, the overall daily structure remains cautious.The RSI is hovering around the 50 midline, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction at this stage.USD/CHF Daily Chart, April 24, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H4 Chart: Testing the Golden Cross Zone Moving down to the 4-hour chart, we see a more defined bullish structure. USD/CHF has successfully pushed above the 0.7828 horizontal support level, which previously acted as a ceiling during the consolidation in mid-April.Notably, the H4 chart shows the 100-period MA crossing above the 200-period MA, often a precursor to sustained bullish momentum.Price is currently testing the 200-period MA (0.7887). A sustained break above this level would open the door for a retest of the psychological 0.8000 resistance area. The RSI on this timeframe is rising toward 65.00, suggesting there is still room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions.USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart, April 24, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Intra-day Scenarios and Key Levels The 1-hour chart provides a granular view of the current breakout attempt. Price has found a foothold above all three major moving averages (50, 100, and 200), which are now beginning to fan out, supporting the bullish thesis.Potential Bullish Scenario: If USD/CHF can maintain its position above the 0.7846 level (the recent swing high and current H1 support), bulls will likely target the 0.7887 (H4 200 MA) followed by the 0.7920 area. A clean break of 0.7920 would suggest a run toward the major psychological barrier at 0.8000. The path of least resistance currently appears to be to the upside, provided the 0.7840-0.7828 support zone holds.Potential Bearish Scenario: Failure to clear the immediate overhead resistance near 0.7870/80 could result in a "bull trap." If the pair slips back below the 0.7846 mark, it would likely revisit the 0.7828 support level. A break below 0.7828 would negate the short-term bullish bias and could see the pair slide back toward the 0.7800 handle as sellers regain control.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 0.7887, 0.7937, 0.8000Support: 0.7846, 0.7828, 0.7780USD/CHF One-Hour Chart, April 24, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) USD/CHF is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows a recovery in progress, while the lower timeframes suggest an imminent breakout. Traders should watch the 0.7887 level closely; a breakout here could ignite a fresh wave of buying interest heading into the weekend.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 23 Surprisingly, markets haven't traded much on the highly uncertain picture that has developed over recent days. Even though President Trump extended the temporary ceasefire, the diplomatic reality remains quite murky, with Iran decidedly undecided on exactly who will attend the negotiations and when these critical talks will even take place.On the macroeconomic front, today was an important PMI session. The headline numbers looked exceptionally strong across the globe, with US Manufacturing hitting four-year highs and the Services sector beating expectations by a solid margin, coming in at 51.3 versus the 50.3 forecast. PMI Data today – MarketPulse Economic Calendar However, looking under the hood reveals some underlying issues. Much of this surging activity is actually being driven by front-loaded pre-orders, as businesses desperately stockpile goods due to fears of war-led supply chain shortages. This notably propelled Manufacturing way above Services.While this recent strength in global data is a welcome sign—especially as it accompanies record earnings across various US sectors—we are still in early 2026. These geopolitical dynamics can disturb the decent economic landscape in a flash, making the macro data in the coming months absolutely essential to watch as the true toll of the war and higher oil prices filters into the global economy.The intraday mood did shift abruptly when President Trump actively changed his tone. Ceaselessly receiving questions on the timeline for the Iran negotiations, he bluntly told reporters, "Don't rush me", and Investors didn't like it much – The passive aggressive tone is beginning to create some doubtsWith the Army maintaining the aggressive US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian economy is receiving quite a toll and this is being used as maximum pressure to force Tehran into a deal sooner rather than later.After a stellar, record-breaking week for risk assets, tomorrow's Friday session will be a critical test of weekend risk, as traders must decide whether they want to hold these historic highs into an increasingly tense geopolitical blur. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) is under pressure from Ceasefire clouds – In-depth analysisMarkets are stuck in the waiting for US-Iran talks – Market CheckGold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX AnalysisStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 23, 2026 As you can see on today's heatmap, the PMIs still have quite a large effect on daily Market activity, with strong rotation flows towards more defensive sectors after the Manufacturing beat.After heavy rises throughout the week, this profit-taking may just continue.Key Earnings releases tomorrow (April 24) Earnings release for April 24, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView WTI exploded again above $96 as the tone soured and traders are slowly exiting their heavy risk-on positioning accumulated throughout the week.The rise in Black Gold is hurting all other risk-assets, subject to some heavier inflationary pressures.Above $100, the profit-taking may just accelerate further, so be careful.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 23, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar is subject to a continuous rebound since reaching its 98.00 Support last Friday, and this is applying pressure on all other FX currencies.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will be very important for global Markets, between Japan's CPI and Retail Sales for the UK and Canada that should keep FX Markets on their toes.But most importantly, prepare for an important weekend risk session.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations that should happen over the weekend.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Strong rally driven by strategic positioning: Intel (INTC) has surged ~80% YTD, fueled by its “national champion” status, US government backing, and key AI partnerships, marking a sharp turnaround after years of underperformance.Earnings outlook weak despite price strength: Q1 2026 EPS is expected to drop ~85% YoY, highlighting a disconnect between fundamentals and the recent equity rally ahead of earnings.Technicals signal potential pullback: The rally appears overstretched, with rejection near channel resistance and overbought RSI unwinding, bearish bias below 72.54/75.76, with downside risk toward 54–40 unless a breakout above resistance sustains. Intel is a star performer in the US stock market, where its share price has surged by almost 80% year-to-date as of 22 April 2026 (see Fig. 1), a dramatic bullish reversal following years of underperformance.Intel’s “National Champion” status led to its major turnaround in share price performance Fig. 1: Intel, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices YTD performances as of 22 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: S&P 500 component stocks YTD performances as of 22 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The catalysts for such a remarkable turnaround are Intel’s “National Champion” status, where the current US White House administration holds a 9.9% stake, cementing its strategic importance in the push for the US to become a global powerhouse in Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications.Secondly, strategic foundry partnerships with other key US AI platforms and hardware firms such as Tesla, Alphabet (the parent company of Google), and Nvidia, making Intel a significant player and contributor in the US’s AI infrastructure cycle.Intel’s current year-to-date performance of 80% is ranked in 12th position in the S&P 500 benchmark stock index, where the top position goes to another AI-related hardware player, SanDisk (SNDK), with a whopping YTD gain of 300% (see Fig. 2).Intel will report its Q1 2026 earnings results after the close of today’s (Thursday, 22 Apr 2026) US trading session.Consensus forecasts point to a sharp earnings slowdown, with Q1 EPS expected to decline from $0.13 to $0.02, an approximately 85% drop compared to the same quarter a year earlier.Medium-term technical outlook of Intel (INTC) (1 to 3 weeks) Fig. 3: Intel (INTC) medium-term trend as of 22 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Overstretched rally seen in Intel from its 30 March 2026 low of 40.63. Bearish bias for a mean reversion corrective down move below 72.54/75.76 key medium-term pivotal resistance towards 54.25/50.60 (see Fig. 3).A break below 54.25/50.60 (also the 50-day moving average) may trigger a further potential corrective decline within its major uptrend phase to expose the next medium-term support at 43.76/40.63 (also the 200-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 75.76 invalidates the mean reversion corrective decline scenario for the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 81.90/84.05 (Fibonacci extension cluster).Key elements to support the medium-term bearish bias on Intel (INTC) The recent rebound of 70% from 30 March 2026 to the current all-time high of 70.33 printed on 17 April 2026 has reached the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel.Price actions in the past three sessions have shaped a bearish reaction after a retest on the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel, which confluences right below a Fibonacci extension cluster of 72.54/75.76, increasing the odds of a mean reversion corrective decline.The daily RSI momentum indicator has exited from its overbought region after it hit an extreme overbought zone of 78.20/78.76 on 17 April 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar is poised for its first weekly gain in a month, buoyed by safe-haven bids amid escalating geopolitical risk and the resulting energy shock.European equities opened cautiously lower, with the STOXX 600 dipping 0.2%, although strong corporate earnings from Nestle and L'Oreal provided some sectorial support.UK PMI data showed resilience, beating expectations, but record input costs for service providers signal that inflationary pressures are becoming "sticky"US PMI and Middle East tension in focus later in the day.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Market sentiment remains rather undecided despite the rally in US indexes yesterday. The US Dollar is attracting a haven bid while Gold continues to grind lower, suggesting market participants remain somewhat cautious.Dollar Finds Support on Safe-Haven Bid The Greenback is on track for its first weekly gain in a month this Thursday as geopolitical risk premia return to the forefront. A deepening standoff between Iran and the US, coupled with a distinct lack of progress on the diplomatic front, has pushed oil prices back above the psychological $100 a barrel mark, weighing heavily on broader market sentiment.At this stage, the two sides remain fundamentally at odds over key sticking points, including the current blockades, nuclear concerns, and control of the Strait. With the waterway effectively remaining under threat, the resulting energy shock continues to ripple through global markets, posing a significant headwind for global economic growth.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major peers, edged higher to trade around the 98.60 mark. This puts the index on track for a weekly gain of 0.4%, marking its first positive weekly performance in a month.While the Dollar served as the primary safe-haven beneficiary when the conflict first erupted in March, optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire and peace deal earlier this month saw a rotation back into risk-sensitive currencies.However, that relief rally appears to be fizzling out.Major Currencies Under PressureEUR/USD: The Euro remained largely flat at $1.17, having earlier hit its softest levels since mid-April. The single currency is bracing for a 0.5% weekly decline, snapping a three-week winning streak.GBP/USD: Cable slipped 0.1% to trade at $1.3484. Sterling bulls seemed unfazed by data indicating that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran is already weighing on UK consumer sentiment, particularly as households scale back on fuel expenditure.USD/JPY: The Yen weakened slightly to 159.56, hovering dangerously close to the 160.00 handle, a level many participants view as the "line in the sand" for potential BoJ intervention.Meanwhile, interest rate markets are currently pricing in a modest 25% probability of a Fed cut before year-end, contrasting sharply with the ECB, where traders are factoring in two potential hikes for 2026.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs European Open: Cautious as earnings filter through European equities edged lower during Thursday’s session as market participants balanced a fresh wave of corporate earnings against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.The pan-European STOXX 600 dipped 0.2% to trade at 612.98 by 07:18 GMT, reflecting a general sense of caution permeating the floors. Major regional indices followed suit; Germany's DAX shed 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 underperformed with a 0.5% decline.Sector Performance and Earnings DriversThe session saw a clear divide in sector performance, largely dictated by commodity moves and individual corporate updates:Energy (.SXEP): Was a notable outlier, climbing 0.6% as crude prices maintained their upward trajectory.Telecommunications (.SXKP): Showed resilience, leading the gainers with a 1.2% advance.Banking (.SX7E): Faced the brunt of the selling pressure, languishing at the bottom of the pile with a 1.1% drop.On the corporate front, consumer staples provided some fireworks. Nestle (NESN.S) saw its shares surge 6% after the food giant reaffirmed its full-year organic growth guidance of 3%-4%. Similarly, L'Oreal (OREP.PA) shares jumped 8% following a robust first-quarter update, which revealed sales growth of 6.7%—its strongest quarterly performance in two years.Despite these pockets of strength in the consumer space, the broader market remains tethered to the "risk-off" sentiment driven by the ongoing energy shock and geopolitical stalemates.Read More:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in controlA real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly OutlookEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?UK PMI Beats Expectations, Input Costs Surge The S&P Global UK Composite PMI staged a significant recovery in April 2026, jumping to 52.0 from 50.3 in March. The reading comfortably cleared market expectations of 49.8, signaling renewed traction across the British private sector despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.The uptick was broad-based, with both Manufacturing (51.8) and Services (52.0) returning to expansionary territory. This performance highlights a notable degree of resilience to the ongoing energy shock and soaring power prices stemming from the conflict in Iran.New Orders Steady, but Outlook Remains CloudedWhile aggregate new business remained stable, the underlying data reveals a more nuanced picture:Manufacturing: Growth in new orders was largely driven by clients "frontloading", placing orders early to hedge against anticipated supply chain disruptions and war-driven volatility.Services: New business saw a marginal reduction, as high costs began to bite into demand.Labor Market Struggles and Inflationary HeatDespite the headline growth, two major headwinds persist for the UK economy:Employment Contraction: Headcounts fell for the 19th consecutive month. Firms frequently cited the burden of higher National Insurance contributions as a primary driver for the continued hiring freeze.Record Input Costs: Service providers faced the sharpest rise in input costs on record. This surge pushed aggregate charge inflation to its highest level since June 2022, suggesting that inflationary pressures are becoming increasingly "sticky" as firms pass higher energy and labor costs onto consumers.With input costs for service providers hitting record highs, how much longer do you think the BoE can justify staying on the sidelines before tackling this renewed inflationary surge?The Day Ahead Diplomatic prospects in the Middle East remain murky. While the White House is pushing for a return to the table, with President Trump suggesting talks could restart tomorrow—Tehran has yet to provide any official confirmation. The U.S. desire for a swift resolution is a positive, but the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a major red flag for global trade.Market ImplicationsThe current backdrop continues to favor the US Dollar and commodity currencies, though the latter's strength depends on whether equities can remain resilient despite the geopolitical noise.Macro Watch: S&P Global PMIsToday’s focus shifts to the S&P Global PMIs. While usually secondary to the ISM, these figures offer a crucial comparison to European performance. Markets are anticipating an improvement in both the manufacturing and services sectors over March’s figures.Key Question: Will the U.S. data show enough strength to justify the Dollar's recent climb, or will inflationary input costs start to flash warning lights for the Fed? For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - Gold Gold prices are facing increased selling pressure on the H4 chart as the safe-haven metal struggles to maintain its footing. The precious metal is currently trading within a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, indicating a clear shift in short-term momentum.Key Technical LevelsResistance: Immediate resistance sits at the 4739 mark (100-day MA), followed by the psychological 4776 level (200-day MA).Support: Price is currently testing a key horizontal support level at 4700. A sustained break below this could open the door for a move toward the 4600 handle.Momentum IndicatorsThe RSI is currently hovering near 35, approaching oversold territory but still showing room for further downside. With the price trading below both major MAs and the RSI reflecting bearish dominance, the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless we see a fundamental catalyst shift the geopolitical narrative.Gold H4 Chart, April 23, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsMarkets exploded to their all-time highs in recent action but are now facing major geopolitical hurdles in coming daysWhile a temporary extension of the Ceasefire helped sentiment, traders are cautious about the next deadline Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.This week in trading has already been a rollercoaster. While Stock Markets themselves did not react much, sentiment went back and forth, but traders now seem more and more unfazed by rumors and only react to larger-scale news.The most important theme, as always since the end of February, is the Middle East conflict, which has now completed its second week of truce.While the narrative got very passive-aggressive, particularly on a very divided Iranian side, Wall Street kept its optimism and remains completely hypnotized by President Trump's persistent attempt for a deal.Stock Benchmarks have officially broken all-time highs in 3 consecutive sessions last week. Dow Jones Daily Chart. April 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView We are now past the 1-year anniversary of Liberation Day, and the stock markets are up about 50% since then.This is close to 5 years of growth in a bit more than 365 days, but this has clearly not been an easy path towards that. But Equity Bulls are hungry and seemingly undefeated. Dips are bought, negative news is followed up by even more positive news, and nothing really ever happens.With Donald Trump in power, the stock markets are in good hands, and they know they can rely on a few TACO's to remain full. The most recent one happened yesterday, as bombs and no Ceasefire extension were promised, but the President announced one about 4 hours before the deadline.Iran just announced that it would send a delegation only if it serves Iran's best interests. From what it seems, internal political turmoil in the Islamic regime still points to contentious looks on peace talks. In any case, a clear answer will have to be seen. This is a best case scenario for Markets and geopolitics, but both the Dollar and WTI Crude haven't shown as much progress – After falling below $85 last Friday, more realistic traders realized that Hormuz was still in a deadlock and pushed the commodity back higher, now established around $90.Iran just attacked a third tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz under US Blockade, and this only shows that both sides are still far from permissive. Oil Daily Chart. April 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView While Oil is moving on its own geopolitical dynamics, the US Dollar might have caught its own bid after the upcoming Senate hearing for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.The hearing triggered a notable market pullback as he signaled structural shifts for the Federal Reserve. Rejecting recent policy complacency, Warsh advocated dropping forward guidance, heavily reducing the balance sheet, and establishing a new inflation framework. While aggressively asserting Fed independence, he notably dodged tough questions from Senator Warren regarding potential disagreements with the President and his biases. In terms of pure economic data, the only two interesting reports this week have been the Canadian CPI, which came in at a measly 2.4% (but a +0.9% m/m increase), and the Bank of Canada's rate decision, which left rates unchanged.On the other hand, the US just delivered a banger Retail sales Report (up 1.7% m/m), which only continues the series of rebounding American data.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:A new era for the Fed? Looking back on Kevin Warsh's US Senate hearing & Market reactionsBreaking News: UK inflation hits 3-month high as energy & food pressures mountTesla (TSLA) Technical: Bearish reaction from 200-day MA with weak relative strengthMetals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – April 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView While Global Stock Indexes have all rebounded, the US clearly dominates the picture and particularly Nasdaq, up a staggering 6.50% to some remarkable all-time highs.The S&P 500, also heavy influenced by a rebound in tech is doing its own piece of work, up 4.55% since last Monday.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, April 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar continues to consolidate above the 98.00 key level, a zone that points to further uncertainty in the FX Market (compared to quite innocent Stock Markets).As explored in our previous in-depth Analysis (which I would advise you to check out to learn more), the fact that the USD has stopped correcting is not an optimistic sign for what's to come.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot99.40 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.30 4H 50-period MA98.00 Major SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, April 22, 2026 - Source: TradingView The US Dollar hasn't properly bounced against FX majors and remains close to the bottom of the performance board.From what it looks, the path to more downside is not guaranteed, but at the same time, a proper war resolution could help sellers to retake control.In terms of pure technicals though, upside seems more probable – The risk is binary and war headlines will decide the fate of the US Dollar.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, April 22, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The CAD is officially bouncing back, up against most of its FX peers as the dust settles on Crude Oil corrections.In any case, Canadian data has now been stabilizing and commodity orders are piling up with Middle East turmoil.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USD/CAD 4H Chart, April 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is still holding its bear channel but the action is now stalling at the 1.3630 - 1.3660 support as traders await for further FX developments.Breaking above 1.36750 hints at a retest of the 4H 50-period MA (1.37260)If not, expect the bear channel to hold.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.3750 Momentum Pivot1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pip1.3850 Resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistanceSupport Levels1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support (testing)1.3550 Main 2025 Support1.35 Key Psychological SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American calendar is actually quite full, with many key releases including University of Michigan data, Canadian Retail Sales, and the preparation for next week's Bank of Canada and Fed Rate Decisions.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are now correcting after holding strong in the morning session with To-be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speakingThe US-Iran Ceasefire is at the center stage with Iran's confirmation for talks still awaitedExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 U.S. stock benchmarks attempted a run above recent highs in the morning, even without any clearer picture on the US-Iran issue.This is largely the most influential factor in Markets this morning's action, with the US reconfirming that it will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, for the second round of talks only if Iran confirms, but Iran has been dodging the question for quite some time now.From what the Iranians said, they do not want to participate in talks as long as the US Blockade on Hormuz continues, but this is the pressure point that the Trump Administration is applying to chokehold the Islamic regime into a deal. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 21, 2026 Odds for an April 30 peace deal dropped from 60% last Friday to below 30%, pressuring Stock Markets.Major US Indexes are now forming intraday double-tops, which could prove uncomfortable for current heavily bullish pricing.All-time highs in current periods are hard to justify amid current economic pressures (even if the US winning on the mid-term macroeconomic side from the spike in American Crude oil orders).Add to this the ongoing Senate interview of Kevin Warsh, who is being heavily questioned about his independence (and also doing his fair share of navigating the questions), and the markets are facing a pressure point.The nominee is strongly advocating reforming the inflation outlook and the Fed Balance Sheet, with a focus primarily on Monetary Policy.His comments on the balance sheet have weighed on rebounding equity prices and supported the US Dollar's continued rebound. The Clock to Wednesday, the end of the ceasefire, is still ticking, and this is starting to weigh on previously undefeated Stock Market bulls.Below, we analyze intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Dollar is forecasting tougher times ahead – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewTo be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking at the US SenateTesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:57) – Source: TradingView – April 21, 2026 The Stock Market is now falling with a broad struggle, not focused on a particular sector except for the Health Sector taking a general hit and a few big names like Apple and Nvidia pulling back.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA somehow extended above its weekend gap despite the uncertainty, but the action isn't anymore pretty because of this, quite the contrary, having failed to retest the 50,000 level.After breaching the Friday top, the Dow marked a fakeout and turned lower aggressively, with 1H RSI momentum quickly turning bearish – forming a double-top looking price action.The 50-Hour MA is getting tested, any extension below 49,260 would break the upward channel and hint at further downside ahead, notably re-entering the Pivot Zone.Any breach of 49,000 would see bearish acceleration to 48,500.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 & 50-Hour MA49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has now formed a clear double top at previous session highs and is now falling below its 50-hour MA (26,630).If bearish pressures continue, the action could easily lead to a re-test of the 26,200 October Record levels.Any extension below points to a larger correction (25,500 seems like a decent intraday target if selling accelerates). Flows will heavily depend on Iran.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels50-Hour MA 26,630Daily resistance 26,600 to 26,750New all-time highs 26,736Potential Resistance at 27,000Support LevelsPrior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday SupportWar Support 25,000 to 25,25024,450 to 24,550 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also trading below its 50-hour MA which caught up fast to the current action (7,115) and sellers are now pushing the index below 7,100.Coming close to the lower bound of the bull-channel, look for a break particularly if Iran fails to confirm their participation in talks ahead of the Ceasefire.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 resistance7,115 50-Hour MANew all-time resistance 7,150Next key potential resistance 7,200Support LevelsPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Federal Reserve Chairman-elect Kevin Warsh is speaking at the Senate.It is a final step for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed at the head of the Federal Reserve. This is a quite essential meeting ahead of the coming four-years to spot what view the Fed Chair will have.You can get access to the live event right here.Lots of questions on Fed Independence, surely the most essential question to ask.We will be producing a quick update to this post in the afternoon to review what was said and what was missed.US Stock Markets update coming up promptly. Dollar Index 1H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is stuck in a 100 pip range – Check out our in-depth analysis of the currency right here:Discover: The Dollar is forecasting tougher times ahead – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has corrected quite severely since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire, and not without good cause.The infamous Petrodollar trade has gripped financial markets on all sides since the beginning of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, particularly amid the rise in Crude Oil to 4-year highs.The USD has historically held a decent correlation with Black Gold, but the latest wave of panic during the conflict re-strengthened the bonds between the two financial assets, rowing the same boat. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView. April 21, 2026 With Markets ever so ecstatic about a US-Iran deal and the fact that the war is not extending much longer than originally priced, this led to an explosion to all-time highs in Stock Markets, a swift drop in Oil prices, and, consequently, a tumble in the US Dollar.This came shortly after a daily double top in the global reserve currency, which was nice enough to mark the bearish pattern indicating a turn in how Markets viewed the war.But after a 2.50% correction, the US Dollar has seemingly done correcting. So if the Dollar forecasted the truce, could it now be forecasting tougher times ahead?The issue with the narrative is that the Ceasefire is ending tomorrow, and a US delegation, including Vice President J.D. Vance, is struggling to coordinate its departure amid mixed messaging from the Iranian side.As the US President said, he does not want to extend the ceasefire, and without a deal, we're going straight back to the bombs. So FX Markets could be feeling the turn. Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. April 21, 2026 The US Dollar is leading all other FX currencies, but the Kiwi Dollar is supported by a NZ CPI beat and the repricing for a hike at the upcoming meeting.While the changes are small, it is now the second consecutive day of a Greenback rebound, so traders will have to pay close attention.We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and where to look next. Discover:Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?Chart alert: Bullish flag formation in Copper (XCU/USD) as 2nd US-Iran peace talks loomMetals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index Daily Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has now attempted, and failed to break the 98.00 Major support for the third time during the morning action.This levels hold right in the middle of its larger timeframe range which implies a general lack of conviction from bears that the Dollar should already erase its War gains.Now testing its 4H 50-period MA, a key technical indicator for the prior coming, FX markets will be facing a test:Breaking above it (98.40) would hint at a bullish rebound ahead, which confirms above 98.70 (if the War picks up again)On the other hand, rejecting 98.00 continues the bearish path for the US DollarLevels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels98.335 4H 50-period MA (bullish above)98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot99.40 to 99.50 ResistanceInitial War Spike 99.68Weekly range highs 100.00100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)Support 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD is taking somewhat of a lead, bouncing from the test of its upward channel bottom in recent action.A break above 0.71860 (March Highs) would continue the bullish path ahead and if the channel was to hold (implying peace), a rally to 0.7250 could occur.Nevertheless, the rebound attempt seems for now quite shy, hence the importance of the March high level. Failing to reject it could lead to a break of the bull channel.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance Levels2023 Highs from 0.7140 to 0.7160 Resistance (broken)0.71867 March highsJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Channel highs 0.7250Support Levels0.7150 Channel lows4H 50-period MA - 0.712800.6970 - 0.70 Major Pivot0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support0.68340 War lowsEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is showing sharply similar signs as the Dollar Index (naturally, in reverse), testing its 4H 50-period MA this time as support.Bears did take the upper hand at the beginning of the week, rejecting sharply the test of the 1.1850 resistance and now trading close to 1,000 pips below.Breaking below the MA hints at further downside, with confirmation below 1.17200.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highs1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent TestSep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport Levels1.1760 4H 50-period MA1.17 to 1.1720 March PivotRebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.163501.1540 to 1.1570 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Hawkish RBNZ supports NZD upside: Stronger-than-expected inflation (3.1%) increases the likelihood of rate hikes, with bond yield spreads signalling a more hawkish stance that underpins NZD/USD.Bullish reversal taking shape: NZD/USD has rebounded from its 200-day moving average, breaking back above the 50-day MA, suggesting the recent 3-day decline may have ended.Key levels for continuation: Holding above 0.5846 keeps the bullish bias intact, with upside toward 0.5965–0.6030, while a break below this level risks a pullback toward 0.5800 and lower. Annual inflation in New Zealand came in at 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged from Q4 2026’s 1.5 year high but exceeded the consensus forecast of 2.9%.The latest inflation print in New Zealand has continued to surpass the RBNZ (New Zealand central bank) long-term inflation target of 1%-3%, therefore increasing the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the RBNZ in July’s monetary policy meeting to bring the official cash policy rate higher to 2.50%. So far, the RBNZ has kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for two consecutive meetings since February 2026.2-year NZ sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spread has started to price in a more hawkish RBNZ Fig. 1: 2-year yield spread of New Zealand sovereign bond and US Treasury note medium-term trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The movement of the 2-year sovereign government bond yields is highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy guidance. Hence, the directional movement of the 2-year yield spread between the two countries’ sovereign bonds is likely to influence the foreign exchange rate of these two countries.By looking at the current 2-year yield spread between New Zealand sovereign bonds and US Treasuries from a technical analysis perspective, it has traced out a major bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulders” configuration since 9 January 2025 and traded above its 200-day moving average, which is acting as a key support at -0.45% (see Fig. 1).Therefore, breaking above the neckline resistance of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders” at –0.09% is likely to see a further rally in the current 2-year yield spread between New Zealand sovereign bonds and US Treasuries (US Treasuries’ yield premium shrinkage), in turn, putting potential upside pressure on the NZD/USD rate.Let us now examine the short-term outlook (1-3 days) of NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.NZD/USD – Bullish reversal at 0.5846 support Fig. 2: NZD/USD minor trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Fig. 3: NZD/USD medium-term trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the NZD/USD have pushed back up above its 50-day moving average after a retest of its 200-day moving average on Monday, 20 April 2026.Watch the 0.5880/0.5846 key short-term pivotal support on the NZD/USD. A clearance above 0.5929 opens scope for a further potential short-term rally for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.5965 and 0.6015/0.6030 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 0.5846 invalidates the bullish scenario for a minor corrective pull-back to retest the 20-day moving average that is acting as the next intermediate support at 0.5800. A break below 0.5800 may trigger a deeper slide to expose 0.5725 next.Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on NZD/USD Price actions of NZD/USD have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 7 April 2026 low of 0.5690 and still have room to maneuver towards the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel (see Fig. 2).NZD/USD has just shaped a 3-day (17 April, 21 April, and 22 April) bullish reversal candlestick condition on the retest of its key 200-day moving average, indicating the potential end of the minor corrective decline sequence from 15 April 2026 to 20 April 2026 (see Fig. 3).The daily RSI momentum indicator has shaped a higher low above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought region (above the 70 level) (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 20 Markets kicked off the week with a decidedly mixed outlook – the highly anticipated second round of diplomatic talks failed to materialize over the weekend, leaving traders empty-handed as the geopolitical timeline continues to face frustrating delays.The rhetoric between Washington and Tehran is turning increasingly passive-aggressive. President Trump drew a hard line in the sand today, stating definitively that the current ceasefire will end this Wednesday and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain firmly closed until a comprehensive deal is officially signed. With Iranian officials simultaneously signaling deep doubts about the negotiation framework and threatening to walk away, energy markets reacted violently. Both WTI and Brent crude oil gapped higher on the open, ultimately closing the session up a strong 5.80% as the fear of a renewed conflict quickly repriced the war uncertainty.Unsurprisingly, the sudden spike in energy costs forced stock indexes and most risk assets to gap lower at the opening bell. However, the buy the dip algorithms are still stubbornly active, helping the session to withstand the fundamental pressure. Yet, the complete failure to extend the rally any higher than those Friday closes confirms the deep confusion currently paralyzing the market. Wall Street is essentially holding its breath, completely hostage to the looming April 22 ceasefire expiration.In other major news, the macroeconomic spotlight shifts back to monetary policy tomorrow. Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate for his confirmation hearing at 10:00 AM. Warsh is reportedly planning to aggressively reinstate the narrative of strong Fed independence. This could act as a massive catalyst, so keep a very close eye on the US Dollar, Treasuries, and related currency pairs as his testimony unfolds—volatility is guaranteed. Read More:Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookECB waits for signals from the economy. War with Iran raises risks to inflation and growth in the euro areaBitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin shrugs off sluggishness and targets recent highs. Is $80000 a possibility?Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 20, 2026 The Stock Market picture rotated throughout the day, without indexes moving the slightest – Healthcare and Energy took a downside turn while a few names in Tech and Non-energy durables helped to maintain sentiment relatively up-lifted.Stock Markets remain broadly unchanged on the session (after selling off in the morning).Key Earnings releases tomorrow (April 21) Earnings release for April 21, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Having now turned the page on Financials, the earning season turns slowly towards consumer products, helping to see how Retail Sales are holding in beginning 2026 – Expectations will be elevated when looking at the current Stock Market picture, so traders will have to be careful. The higher-tier earnings reports will be coming up later in the week.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView As can be seen, despite the gigantic rally in WTI at the open, Global Stock Markets remained surprisingly strong and are remaining surprisingly resilient to any bad news.The buy-the-rumors on the peace process continues; Investors will have to make sure that they won't sell on any type of news (they will require a very positive deal to continue the extension higher from there after such a strong rally).A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 20, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar seems to have struggled once again despite the gap higher in WTI, but looking at the Dollar Index, FX is stuck in quite a range as of late (Particularly USD and European pairs).The Aussie Dollar is on the other hand doing its own work, consistently outperforming its major peers in recent weeks – Check out our recent analysis to learn more.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will be filled with high-tier, but sporadic releases.This evening begins with New Zealand inflation which will prove to be a decisive factor for the pricing of potential rate hikes with the RBNZ. Any clear inflation beat will price in hikes and should help the Kiwi Dollar for the time being.Watch out for the reverse scenario also!The UK will send out their own Employment numbers in the overnight, so GBP traders will have to be careful with their positioning and orders (2:00 A.M. Release).The US session will also be quite full, with Retail Sales at 8:30, Kevin Warsh's appearance at the Senate at 10:00 A.M. and Ceasefire deal news.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold and other metals are struggling to pick-up momentum despite lower Oil pricesThe Ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides seem more reluctant to extend it without a dealIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets. While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets. Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war's panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place. The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction. If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts. Read More:Back at all-time highs, Investors take a break – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookMarkets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focusUSD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX AnalysisGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has rallied a quite impressive 17% after reaching 4-month lows on March 22, but has failed to breach the quintessential $4,900 resistance.For bulls to retake the intermediate momentum advantage, they will have to generate a proper push above the psychological level – that could potentially happen if sentiment sours further.In the immediate outlook however, the 4H 200-period MA is putting bearish pressure, hence if nothing fundamental changes, sellers would have the short-term advantage.A break below the $4,781 50 MA confirms a turn lower and would push back towards $4,650.Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,800 4H 200-period MA$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:$4,781 50-MA short-term supportDaily Momentum Pivot $4,675 (bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver has also rallied strongly from its March 22 lows but is now struggling to extend above the $83 resistance.Still evolving within a bull channel, traders will have to track its upper ($84.50) and lower bounds ($77) to play breakouts.If the situation remains confusing as it currently is, expect the channel to consolidate into a range between $77 and $83.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 (Mid-term bullish above)Key Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $794H 50 and 200-period MAs ($77)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades and a successful week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The ECB says it is still too early to fully assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the euro area, so policymakers should closely watch incoming data and avoid rushing into decisions.The war creates a classic supply shock: it raises energy and commodity prices, increases inflation risks, and at the same time threatens already weak euro area growth, especially through potential disruptions such as a Strait of Hormuz blockade.The ECB’s main concern is whether higher energy costs will trigger longer-lasting “second-round effects” across the economy; if inflation expectations rise and price pressures become persistent, the central bank may have to respond. The European Central Bank is still unable to clearly assess how strong the full impact of the war with Iran will be on the euro area economy. As Álvaro Santos Pereira, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, emphasizes, the conflict is too recent to draw firm conclusions, so for now the central bank should closely monitor incoming data and refrain from hasty reactions.Too early for a full assessment of the conflict’s effectsAccording to Pereira, the current situation requires caution because this is a classic supply shock. Such shocks usually lead at the same time to weaker economic growth and higher inflation, putting the central bank in a particularly difficult position. On the one hand, energy and commodity prices are rising; on the other, economic activity is weakening. For the euro area, this means worsening conditions, although at this stage the negative impact of the conflict is not yet seen as dramatic.A supply shock puts the ECB in a difficult positionPereira notes that the euro area economy is currently somewhere between the ECB’s baseline scenario and the adverse scenario it had considered. Even before the current crisis, economic growth in the euro area had been running at around 1%, which in itself pointed to limited recovery momentum. In this situation, any additional external shock, especially one related to the energy market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increases the risk of a further weakening in economic conditions. ECB inflation and growth forecast, source: Bloomberg The ECB is paying particularly close attention to developments surrounding the fighting in the Middle East and the potential consequences for Europe of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This channel could be of key importance for oil prices, transport costs, and more broadly for cost pressures in the economy. For the central bank, however, the most important issue will not be the temporary rise in prices itself, but the possibility of so-called second-round effects. This refers to a situation in which higher energy and commodity prices begin to spread into other sectors of the economy, pushing inflation higher in a more lasting way.The biggest risk is entrenched inflationary pressureIn Pereira’s view, only clear signs that higher inflation is becoming entrenched, along with rising inflation expectations, should prompt the ECB to react. If such signals appear in the data, the central bank will have to respond. If, however, price pressure proves limited and temporary, it will be more appropriate to continue observing the situation and make decisions with great caution. This is particularly important at a time when less than two weeks remained before the ECB’s next interest-rate decision. Euro Area Inflation Rate, source: TradingEconomics Europe needs not only caution, but also reformsIn the Governing Council member’s opinion, short-term caution in monetary policy should not obscure the broader picture. Pereira points out that for more lasting growth, Europe also needs structural measures, above all faster completion of the single market. Deeper economic integration could increase Europe’s resilience to external shocks and improve its long-term growth prospects. For now, the ECB therefore remains in a mode of vigilant observation. The conflict with Iran is already worsening economic conditions in the euro area, but the scale of its impact has not yet been determined. The coming weeks and incoming data will show whether this is a temporary disruption or the start of stronger and more persistent inflationary pressure that would force the central bank to respond. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $76000 handle and maintains a firmly bullish technical structureThe $75000 psychological level is acting as a consistent pivot, suggesting sustained institutional interest.If buying pressure persists, the primary short-term goal is a run toward the psychological $80000 level, with the ultimate bullish hurdle being $82133.Most Read: Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focusBitcoin (BTC/USD) has displayed impressive resilience during the Monday session, shaking off early-morning sluggishness to reclaim the $76000 handle. After a brief period of consolidation, the premier cryptocurrency looks poised to challenge its recent highs, underpinned by a technical structure that continues to favor the "buy the dip" crowd.Daily Chart: Holding the MA High Ground The daily timeframe remains the cornerstone of the current bullish thesis. Following the impulsive "V-shaped" recovery throughout early April, Bitcoin has successfully turned previous resistance into rock-solid support.Key observations on the Daily:The SMA Support Sandwich: Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above its 100-day MA (yellow) at $74145 and its 50-day MA (blue) at $70577.As long as the pair remains above this "support sandwich," the broader bias remains firmly bullish.The $75000 Pivot: The daily candles are showing a consistent ability to close above the $75000 psychological level, suggesting that institutional interest is picking up at these elevated levels.RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is trending at 61, indicating that while momentum is positive, we are still a long way from the "danger zone" of 70+, leaving significant room for a run toward the $82133 hurdle.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H4 Chart: The Bullish Base at $74000 Zooming into the H4 chart, we can see a textbook example of healthy trend development. After hitting a local top near $78197, the pair underwent an orderly retracement that found a floor exactly at the 50-period MA (blue), currently at $74632.The H4 structure has now printed a significant higher low. With the RSI bouncing off its midpoint (58) after a "PIVOT" low signal, the indicators suggest that the corrective phase is over, and the next impulsive leg may be beginning to take shape.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Intraday Outlook The hourly chart provides the most immediate optimism, with Bitcoin slicing back above its 50, 100, and 200-period MAs in a single concerted move.The Bullish ScenarioFor the bulls to maintain this momentum into the Asian and European sessions, we need to see a sustained hold above the $75700 area (the H1 100-MA). A clean break above $76800 would likely trigger a liquidation of short positions, clearing the path for a retest of $78197. If buying pressure persists, a psychological run toward $80000 becomes the primary target.The Bearish ScenarioThe bears need a rejection at current levels and a break back below the $75000 pivot to regain any short-term control. Failure to hold the $74555 level (H1 200-MA) would signal a more prolonged consolidation, likely drawing the price back toward the structural support at $71673.However, given the current "BULL" labels on the RSI, the bears seem to be on the back foot for now.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: $78197, $80000, $82133Support: $75000, $74145 (Daily 100-MA), $71673Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Bitcoin is effectively "re-loading" for its next major move. The confluence of support between $74,000 and $75,000 has proven to be a formidable base for the bulls. WIll it serve as a base for Bitcoin to finally push beyond the coveted $80000 mark?Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks extended to some fresh new record on Friday, but the euphoria is coming to a stallThe US-Iran Ceasefire is coming to an end on April 22, so Investors are looking for further developments from hereExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock Benchmarks extended to fresh record highs on Friday, but the wall of euphoria is officially hitting a stall as a massive geopolitical deadline looms.The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire this Wednesday, April 22, and the market is growing increasingly anxious. Investors are desperately looking for further developments to justify current Market pricing, especially following recent reports that President Trump will not extend the ceasefire—and won't open the Strait of Hormuz—unless a finalized deal is signed.The diplomatic timeline has been frustratingly erratic. High-stakes negotiations were initially supposed to take place last Thursday before being pushed to the weekend, and now finally into this week. JD Vance apparently still hasn't left to Islamabad to kick off the new rounds of talks, and Wall Street is now done trading on rumors only. Investors are now demanding concrete advancements before they fund the next leg of this peace trade. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 20, 2026 Odds for a Peace deal are remaining stuck below 40%, failing to extend above in recent days, and the turn from the White House rhetoric isn't helping much.This underlying caution is already showing up in the charts. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recently reached stunning new records, the Dow Jones—often a much more stable guide to broad Market appetite—has failed to gather the strength needed to push to all-time highs. This divergence is a glaring signal: smart money is still highly skeptical that the global economy will seamlessly revert to its pre-war normal. That skepticism is heavily reinforced in the energy sector, where WTI Crude remains uncomfortably sticky around the $90 handle. With the clock ticking down to Wednesday and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the balance, let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focusChart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in controlA real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:34) – Source: TradingView – April 20, 2026 The Market is once again sending mixed signals, with Mega Caps taking a hit, but the rest remaining quite resilient on the session.The first week of earnings has been very decent, so that maintains a decent bid in Stocks, but the small changes on the session can only confirm the hesitancy from recent geopolitics.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA gapped back to 49,000 at the start of the week, limited in its progress by the rebound in WTI Crude and the lack of diplomatic progress.Now testing its gap fill at 49,560, a key test is showing up ahead:Extending above the 49,760 Friday highs hints at a continuation aboveOn the other hand, a rejection of the gap fill would hint at a break of the ceasefire bull channel. The 4H 50-period MA would be a decent test in such an occurrence.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap fill 49,460 (testing)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below) Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has now extended well above its prior all-time highs in a 17% firework – But the bullish momentum is coming to a stall.The RSI Momentum is largely diverging, hinting at a stalling in the price action until Markets learn more on the Fundamental issue.The base case is for a retest of the 26,200 prior all-time highs, a decent place of entry for optimistsBreaking 26,000 would hint at a larger pull-back (~25,500) in the event where momentum fails to persistNasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily resistance 26,600 to 26,750New all-time highs 26,736Potential Resistance at 27,000 Support LevelsPrior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday SupportWar Support 25,000 to 25,25024,450 to 24,550 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is holding even better standards compared to its peers, also retesting its week-end gap fill (~7,110).Rejecting it would, like Nasdaq, point to a test of its prior all-time highs (~7,000 - 7,020)Rebounding from there should easily lead to new all-time highs (barring a worse fundamental outlook) as this also coincides with a test of the upward ChannelS&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 resistance (testing)New all-time resistance 7,150Next key potential resistance 7,200Support LevelsPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900 Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.