Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldMicrosoft is set to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. As one of the marquee names in the "Magnificent Seven," Microsoft’s results will not only determine the trajectory of its own stock which has notably lagged peers like Meta over the last two years but will also likely set the tone for the broader Nasdaq 100 and the ongoing AI trade.Market participants are looking past simple headline beats, focusing instead on three critical pillars: the re-acceleration of Azure, tangible AI monetization, and the sustainability of margins amidst ballooning capital expenditures.What to Expect? Analysts have maintained a stable outlook for Microsoft, projecting robust double-digit growth despite broader market jitters.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Wall Street expects EPS to grow approximately 20% year-over-year.Revenue: Total revenue is forecast to rise by roughly 15% year-over-year.Intelligent Cloud: This remains the most critical metric. Consensus estimates peg Intelligent Cloud revenue at $32.4 billion, representing a strong 27% YoY increase.Microsoft has strung together three consecutive beats on cloud revenue, and the market will be looking for a continuation of this trend. However, in the current environment, meeting expectations may not be enough; the quality of the beat matters. zoom_out_map Source: Yahoo Finance, Created by Zain Vawda Key Focus Areas for Market Participants Azure: Stabilization or Re-acceleration?The primary driver of Microsoft’s narrative remains Azure. The debate among institutional investors has shifted from "is growth slowing?" to "is it re-accelerating?" Investors want to see if the "optimization cycles" where clients cut cloud spend to save money are fully in the rearview mirror.A key metric to watch will be commercial bookings and RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations), which offer a window into future demand. If Azure growth shows clear signs of re-acceleration, it could reignite the bullish thesis. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, Yahoo Finance The AI Reality Check: CapEx vs. MonetizationMicrosoft has been spending heavily to build out the infrastructure required for AI, a strategy described as "spend now, payoff later."CapEx: Expect capital expenditures to remain elevated. The market is increasingly sensitive to this "AI tax" on margins. If CapEx guidance jumps without a corresponding increase in revenue guidance, the stock could be punished.Monetization: It is time for receipts. Investors need proof that products like Copilot are generating incremental, billable revenue, not just "strategic value." Specific data points regarding Copilot uptake across enterprise seats will be scrutinized heavily.Margins: The Efficiency Balancing ActWith AI costs rising, operating margins are under the microscope. The market will be watching to see if efficiencies in the core cloud business are sufficient to offset the massive data center and energy costs associated with AI. Any guidance suggesting a compression in margins could weigh heavily on the stock, given its premium valuation.Potential Implications for Microsoft Share Price & Nasdaq 100 For Microsoft (MSFT) Stock:Microsoft shares have underperformed the S&P 500 recently and are currently down roughly 18.5% from their record highs, nearing the technical definition of a bear market (a 20% drop).Bull Case: A "Goldilocks" report stabilizing cloud growth, proof of AI revenue, and disciplined margin management could trigger a sharp relief rally.Bear Case: If Azure misses or if management signals that the "payoff" phase of their AI spend is further out than expected, the stock could break support levels, potentially targeting the psychological $500 handle and beyond or lower gaps near $395..Microsoft Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView For the Nasdaq 100:As a heavyweight in the index, Microsoft’s movement will drag the market with it.Sentiment Bellwether: A disappointment here would validate fears that the AI trade has become overheated and capital-inefficient, likely sparking a selloff in other hyperscalers like Nvidia and Alphabet.Valuation Sensitivity: The broader tech sector is currently grappling with high valuations. Microsoft needs to justify its multiple; failing to do so could spark a broader correction in the Nasdaq 100 as market participants reassess the risk-reward profile of the entire AI sector.Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Bottom Line Microsoft enters this earnings season with a "show me" label attached to it. The "AI promise" phase is ending; the "AI profit" phase must begin. For market participants, the play isn't just about the earnings beat, it's about the guidance and the assurance that the billions being poured into data centers are starting to flow back as cash.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 breaks higher after weeks of lagging: After underperforming US peers due to sector rotation away from mega-cap tech, the Nasdaq 100 has finally broken out of a 7-week consolidation range, signalling a bullish catch-up phase may be underway.Mega-cap earnings are the near-term catalyst: With Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple reporting Q4 earnings this week, results could jolt the index out of its slumber and validate the recent upside breakout.Technical and breadth signals now support the bullish bias: RSI has broken out of a descending trendline, price has cleared key resistance, and market breadth has improved meaningfully, with a growing share of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Nasdaq 100 bullish momentum is building up”, published on 8 January 2026.The mega-cap technology-heavy Nasdaq 00 has lagged its US peers and other major global benchmark stock indices, as it only recorded a meagre year-to-date gain of 1.8% as of Monday, 26 January 2026, underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.8%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (+7.2%), while slightly higher versus the S&P 500 (+1.5%) (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: YTD performance of US & global major stock indices as of 26 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The current underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 within the US stock market has been attributed to a sector rotation towards industrials, energy, and basic materials due to geopolitics and the current US White House administration’s expansionary/aggressive foreign policy.Mega-tech earnings may jolt the Nasdaq 100 up from its slumber A big earnings week for US mega-cap technology stocks as four of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” will report their respective Q4 2025 earnings results this week.Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla will report their earnings results on Wednesday, 28 January, after the close of the US session, followed by Apple on Thursday, 29 January, also after the close of the US session.Interestingly, technical factors are now indicating that the current laggard Nasdaq 100 is likely to stage a bullish catch-up.Let’s reveal the relevant charts and the Nasdaq 100 short-term (1-3 days) trajectoryShort-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Evolving into a bullish trend zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 27 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) After a choppy price configuration from 15 January to 21 January 2026, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has now evolved into a minor bullish trend, with an intraday bullish breakout above the 7-week range resistance zone at 25,760/25,830.Watch the 25,500 short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the bullish tone, with the next intermediate resistance coming in at 26,107, followed by the current all-time area of 26,290 in the first step.On the flip side, a break with an hourly close below 25,500 invalidates the bullish scenario to see another round of choppy minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at 25,350 (also the 50-day moving average). Below it sees further potential weakness towards 25,105/25,030 support next.Key elements to support the bullish bias zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index medium-term trend as of 8 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: % of Nasdaq 100 component stocks above 20-day MA & 50-day MA as of 26 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The daily RSI momentum indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index has staged a bullish breakout above a key parallel descending trendline, which increases the odds of a price action bullish breakout from the 7-week range resistance of 23,830 (Fig. 3).Market breadth has improved considerably. Over the past month, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 20-day moving averages has increased significantly from 33% on 31 December 2025 to 53% as of Monday, 26 January 2026. Similarly, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages jumped by 10 percentage points to 57% over the same period (Fig. 4). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Markets rally as no geopolitical surprise occurred over the weekendUS Indexes are consolidating as traders are awaiting for FOMC to push for a new directionExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The week has just begun, and traders are already pushing global markets across all asset classes – without any economic data releases. Gold reached $5,000 during the Asia session, and Silver is up 10% to $111; metals are not showing any signs of stalling in their relentless rallies.Monday marks yet another discrepancy in investor sentiment: Stocks are rallying from last week's earnings, the unwinding of weekend risk positioning, and pre-FOMC trading, while cryptocurrencies keep seeing outflows. Bitcoin holds at $87,000, but most other altcoins are struggling to gather momentum.With the latest announcements of a "massive armada" massing in the Middle East, volatility is expected to remain elevated, and economists remain on edge – Oil dazzled in up-and-down trading, but its contained action shows this isn't the primary concern for traders – at least for now! A surprising move in other asset classes has been the rebound in the longer-end of the Bond curve – After a disastrous performance last week, the 30Y Bond is bouncing higher (Yields down), supported by better-looking Japanese yields (their bond market has been breaking lower for a while).Lower yields are showing support to stocks around this phase in Markets – Stocks have reacted negatively to higher yields from the US uncertainty. zoom_out_map US 30Y Bonds (Yields below) – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Participants are also anxiously awaiting the announcement of the next Fed Chair, which should come before the end of January (i.e., this week!).Overall, with the US Dollar thrashing lower (an in-depth analysis will be coming up this afternoon), the theme for this week's start is one of caution:Key Mag 7 earnings, geopolitics, and the FOMC are not risks to underestimate. zoom_out_map Key Earnings Calendar throughout this week – January 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Earnings Whispers With only tomorrow's ADP weekly report, Wall Street will keep a close eye on geopolitical risks and earnings, including Apple, Meta, Microsoft, ASML, and Tesla, in between key Blue Chip Stocks reports (Visa, Mastercard, GM, AT&T, IBM, and more). zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:20 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 26, 2026 Magnificent 7s and Semiconductors are doing the heavy-lifting in today's sessions. Microsoft (MSFT) is leading its peers to the upside, while Defensives and Financials drag lower as their earnings season is now complete for the most-part.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for weekend volatility as the situation is not fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Breaches $5100/oz, Yen Intervention Risks Grow, Dollar Slides. USD/JPY Test 100-Day MAFOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldGet ready for an agitated FOMC Week – Markets Weekly OutlookDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now rallying within a tighter range (48,600 to 49,600) as investors await for FOMC communications – Today's rebounding action got contained at 49,400 highs (Keep this level in check for the week).As risk-sentiment stays contained from the high-potential risk, expect further consolidation in the upcoming 48 hours (FOMC is on Wednesday at 14:00).This view is reflected by the RSI tilting higher but not taking a significant bullish shape and the up-and-down trend lines forming a triangle formation.The main risk for this week remains a US Intervention in Iran which could provide a sudden risk-off move which would happen in a flash, so it could be wise to prepare accordingly in case – Any heavy volume close below the past week lows (48,339) would be the confirming sign.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 49,391Friday highs 49,663Short Timeframe resistance 49,200 to 49,300 (immediate rejection)49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 and Triangle lowsIntraday support 48,600 to 48,700 (4H 200-period MA)Psychological Support and range lows at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now showing very decent strength as investors rush to position for strong Q4 Earnings from Mag 7s and Tech giants.Panic from October overvaluation themes had seen names like Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta struggling harshm but the immediate action is looking much better.The Tech-Heavy index is now attempting to complete its past week measured move to retest its all-time highs. Any close above 25,833 would confirm the push to higher levels.Don't forget that Nasdaq would also get severely hit from risk-aversion in the event of an Iran attack.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,817 (testing range highs)Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850Measured move target 26,050All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,503Wednesday lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Spoose is also showing similar measured-move patterns which should materialize if the FOMC doesn't get too hawkish (current tone is neutral/cautious hence more dovish).In the event where the Iran situation tones down or takes a better direction, stocks could easily get launched to some new highs – The measured move points to at least 7,020.Depending on sentiment, the Index could get further with Fibonacci projections hanging between 7,060 to 7,130.A reminder that hawkish communications from the Fed ("we need to keep rates as they are", etc) would hurt sentiment.The reverse applies for dovish communications ("further rate cuts can be expected through the cycle", a bigger emphasis on the labor market,...)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,962 and countingPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and a successful FOMC Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on January 28, 2026 will be an intriguing one.The current economic data is showing a strange pattern that doesn't follow the usual rules: the US economy is growing very fast with estimates suggesting a massive 5.4% growth rate for Q4 but at the same time, the job market is slowing down.Meanwhile, inflation is stuck at 3.0%, which is higher than what the central bank wants to see.Usually, fast growth leads to higher inflation and a hot job market, but that isn't happening right now. This split could mean that businesses are becoming much more efficient and productive.However, it could also be a warning sign that the economy is starting to "overheat" (growing too fast to be sustainable), even if it doesn't look like it yet due to temporary factors.Heading into the meeting and market participants are pricing in around a 97% probability of a rate hold at Wednesdays meeting. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG The Political Economy of 2026 The January 2026 meeting cannot be analyzed in a vacuum of economic data. It occurs within a "storm" of political pressure that threatens the institutional integrity of the Federal Reserve.The "Eye of the Storm"The Rabobank report characterizes the current environment as "In the Eye of the Storm". This metaphor is apt. The "storm" is the friction between President Trump’s administration and the Federal Reserve.Executive Pressure: President Trump has increasingly tightened his "grip" on the Fed. His administration explicitly favors lower interest rates to boost growth and reduce the cost of servicing the national debt.The "Quartermaster": The report mentions a "quartermaster" named Miran—likely a key economic aide or shadow advisor—who advocated for a 50 basis point cut in December. This reveals the delta between the Fed’s action (25 bps) and the Administration’s desire (50 bps). The pressure is for more easing, faster.The Powell Subpoena and ExitChair Jerome Powell is under siege. He faces a subpoena and a Department of Justice investigation.Unprecedented Legal Pressure: Never in modern history has a sitting Fed Chair been subject to such overt legal pressure from the executive branch. This is designed to weaken his standing and force compliance with the low-rate agenda.Powell's Response: Powell is expected to be defiant in the press conference, likely stating he has "said all he has to say". However, the psychological toll and the distraction are undeniable.The May Transition: Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15, 2026. This date is the event horizon for monetary policy.Scenario A: Powell leaves quietly. Trump appoints a loyalist.Scenario B: Powell fights to stay on the Board of Governors (his term as Governor lasts until 2028). Trump has warned that Powell’s life "won't be very happy" if he does this. If Powell stays, he denies Trump a vacancy on the Board, preventing the appointment of a crucial swing vote.The June PivotThe forecast for a rate cut in June 2026 is heavily predicated on this political transition. Rabobank explicitly states they have "higher confidence" in a June cut because "this will be the first meeting led by the new Fed Chair".Implication: The market is pricing in a political reaction function. The expectation is that the new Chair will be appointed with a mandate to cut rates, regardless of whether inflation is 3.0% or GDP is 5.4%. This expectation of a "politicized pivot" is a key driver of the Gold rally and Dollar weakness.Market Implications for FX The relationship between US politics and money is changing how the world views different currencies. Right now, the US dollar is on a downward trend for a few key reasons:Why the Dollar is WeakeningThe "Bearish" Case: The U.S. Dollar Index (an indicator of the dollar's strength) has dropped to around 97.00.Falling Interest Rates: Even though the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) has paused some moves, investors know that interest rates are likely headed lower, potentially down to around 3.0%–3.25% by the end of the year. When interest rates in the US fall while other countries stay steady, the dollar becomes less attractive to market participants..The "Governance Discount": Market participants are becoming worried about political friction in Washington. Specifically, public disagreements between the White House and the Federal Reserve make people feel the central bank might lose its independence. This makes the dollar seem like a riskier place to keep money.How Other Currencies Are ReactingThe Euro (EUR/USD): The Euro has climbed to around $1.19. Experts believe it will continue to rise throughout 2026 because European interest rates are becoming more competitive compared to US rates.The British Pound (GBP/USD): The Pound has reached its highest level in four months, hitting nearly $1.37. This is happening because the global economy seems to be heading for a "soft landing" (slowing down without a major crash), which usually helps the Pound.The Future of the DollarThe outlook for the dollar is shaky. If the Federal Reserve appoints a new leader who prefers lower interest rates, the dollar index could fall even further. Currently, the dollar's only real "lifelines" would be a sudden spike in US inflation (which would force rates back up) or a major global crisis that makes people run back to the dollar for safety.However, with Gold reaching record highs above $5,100, it appears that many investors are now choosing "hard assets" like gold instead of the US dollar when they want to play it safe.Monetary Policy Outlook The path for the rest of 2026 is the subject of intense debate among market participants.The consensus among analysts and market participants (2-3 cuts) is more dovish than the Fed (1 cut). This discrepancy is the source of market volatility. If the Fed sticks to its guns (1 cut), yields will rise, and equities/gold could correct.If the Fed capitulates (3 cuts), the "melt-up" continues.There is also the possibility that the Fed may stick to its guns of 1 cut while market participants hold their expectations steady at 2-3 cuts. In such a scenario, the immediate market reaction may be rather muted.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, January 26, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Key Levels to Focus OnSupport:96.3795.0094.50Resistance:97.7098.67100.00Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US dollar recorded its weakest week since May, falling 1.5% on Dollar Index, driven mainly by political uncertainty rather than shifts in monetary policy or bond yields.Erratic policy signals from President Donald Trump have increased investor caution, triggering a move into safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, while pressuring the dollar broadly.With the Federal Reserve in focus and concerns growing over its future independence, markets are increasingly pricing in further downside risks for the dollar The US dollar is posting its weakest week since May, losing ground against most major currencies. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by more than 0.5% on Friday and is down 1.6% for the week, marking its worst performance in over eight months. Importantly, the current weakness of the dollar is not the result of a sharp shift in monetary policy expectations, but rather a surge in political uncertainty in the United States. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY), weekly timeframe, source: TradingView Trump as the main source of uncertaintyThe key factor weighing on the dollar is the unpredictable and often contradictory policy stance of Donald Trump. Investors were unsettled by threats of tariffs against Europe linked to disputes over Greenland, followed by a rapid retreat from a confrontational tone after an agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during the World Economic Forum in Davos. At the same time, US Treasury yields have remained relatively stable, reinforcing the view that political risk, rather than monetary factors, is currently the dominant force shaping the dollar. Right now the dollar has become a safety valve for US risk.Flight to safe-haven currenciesThe global foreign exchange reaction underscores rising aversion to US-related risk. The Japanese yen strengthened by more than 1%, moving to around 156.14 per dollar. The move accelerated following a press conference by Kazuo Ueda, head of the Bank of Japan, and during periods of low liquidity in Europe. zoom_out_map Daily Timeframe of USDJPY, source: TradingView Additional uncertainty was introduced by comments from Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama, who neither confirmed nor denied possible currency intervention. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached its strongest level since September, and the Canadian dollar recorded its best day since December, highlighting the broad-based pressure on the US currency. zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of USDCHF, source: TradingView The Fed in the spotlightAnother source of volatility is the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in one rate cut around mid-year and the possibility of another in 2026. The dollar is also burdened by concerns over potential threats to the Fed’s independence and fears that a successor to Jerome Powell could move more quickly to ease policy under political pressure. zoom_out_map Fed Watchtool Conditional Meeting Probabilities, source: cmegroup.com Downside Pressure on the Dollar May PersistThe current weakness of the dollar stems primarily from political turmoil and rising institutional uncertainty rather than deteriorating US economic fundamentals. As long as these factors remain in play, downward pressure on the US currency is likely to persist, especially against traditional safe-haven currencies. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock traders are rebalancing their positions ahead of next week's FOMC and key earningsAfter the past two rebounding sessions, weekend risks and high-tier events stalls the impulseExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stocks are back to quite a decent outlook, and Markets are all out on yet another phase of the Debasement Trade, which just took Silver to $100 and Gold to $5,000.However, as we head into the weekend, some factors of uncertainty could create significant volatility and change the current market picture in high fashion.One of the first and most evident yet easily overlooked is the Federal Chair appointment announced by the US President.As evidenced in this remarkable piece, Trump suggested a decision around his return to the White House from Davos (and he just came back).The race is between Rick Reider, BlackRock's CEO, and a well-positioned Wall Street veteran who could be the surprise. His appointment would reassure the US Dollar and bond markets the most.On the other hand, Kevin Warsh, the heavy favorite, an ex-Governor at the Fed from 2006-2011 (rough period), could maintain the current trend. Any communications regarding the decision will be market-rocking. zoom_out_map Fed Chair nominees Prediction-Market odds – Source: Kalshi A second risk catalyst for this weekend is the high potential for geopolitical catalysts as we conclude a period full of headlines – heavy US military assets are concentrating in the Middle East, and my thesis is that the Greenland issue was being offered as a distraction.On that aspect, Oil is up 2.50% and still rebounding at its Risk-Premium support area – Check out our latest in-depth analysis for WTI to learn more.We will see more on this this weekend – If nothing happens, expect stocks to keep up their path higher.A third potential volatility contributor could be current Market levels – with Gold reaching $5,000, Silver exploding by 250% to $100, and Stock Markets at all-time highs, one small profit-taking wave can turn into a significant selling cascade, particularly as we approach the FOMC.All three factors, when combined, could significantly affect the Market picture, so keep an eye on how they interact. zoom_out_map Morning US Data – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView In terms of today's action, US Consumer Sentiment just beat expectations, and Inflation expectations cooled down, usually a positive for the Market, but with key tech Earnings (helping Nasdaq to outperform) and the Fed Meeting approaching (January 28), don't expect a straightforward path ahead.As a reminder, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and ASML report after the close on FOMC day, while Apple and Visa follow on Thursday. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:39 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 23, 2026 Magnificent 7s and Semiconductors are doing the heavy-lifting in today's sessions. Microsoft (MSFT) is leading its peers to the upside, while Defensives and Financials drag lower as their earnings season is now complete for the most-part.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for weekend volatility as the situation is not fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Platinum on pace to $3,000 – Will XPT/USD have a safe path to the milestone?Chart alert: USD/JPY plunging below 158 on suspected intervention, watch 157.50 supportGold rally hits $4,900: Why the January FOMC, geopolitics, and technical warnings mark a critical juncture?Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow just rejected its all-time highs, not so surprising as we head into the weekend and the direction has mostly stayed rangebound since 2026.The range, extending between 48,000 and 49,700 provides levels of interest for upcoming action:A clear break above should see fast-paced continuation, first to the 50,000 Milestone and surely higher (particularly if the recent doubts and uncertainties get resolved)Any weekly close below 48,000 can precede more downside, potentially extending to 45,000.For the short-run watch if the current retracement stalls at the 4H 200-MA (48,663), which would be the most bullish corrective outlook Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 49,663Short Timeframe resistance 49,200 to 49,30049,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,041 4H 20-period MAChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000Intraday support 48,600 to 48,700 (4H 200-period MA)Psychological Support and range lows at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now taking the lead (for the first time in a while) in today's action, as traders reposition ahead of next week's high-expectation-earnings. The pressure is high for the tech-heavy index: These early 2026 reports will reflect on this current year's projections and 2025 numbers as P/E Ratios reach elevated levels, particularly for Mag 7s.The index is still showing a decent rebound in today's session, and looking at the previous days' action, a breakout of its 24,000 to 25,800 Range could be close.A measured move hints at a retest of the All-Time High records.This will, of course, need to be accompanied by positive (or at least not too pessimistic) fundamentals – A break and close above the 25,850 level should see continuation.Next week's earnings will have a key influence on the Nasdaq Movement. Keep a close eye on the Fed's communications next week.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,733 (range highs, key test)Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,428Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P is still contained within its main 6,800 to 6,975 Range – Showing similar conditions as the Nasdaq, expect similar breakout scenarios:A break above the 7,000 All-Time Highs with volume should lead to continued upside.A rejection and close below the 6,800 key support should see profit-taking acceleration.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,938Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and a Blessed weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Precious Metals are still under severe demand despite better looking EU-US TensionsPlatinum is breaking its record highs by the session, following its Gold and Silver peersExploring Multi-timeframe Technical Levels for XPT/USD as it heads to $3,000 Even with EU-US tensions subsiding, the metals complex remains white-hot, tearing through fresh record highs by the session.Gold, the benchmark for the sector, is now trading less than $100 away from the Key $5,000 milestone.Silver, which showed some hesitation during the peak of the Greenland scare, has resumed its ascent and is on a clear path to $100 per ounce. Despite tighter margin requirements, the supply bottleneck is dominating price movements; industrial users have no choice but to pay up for physical delivery.However, Platinum is carving out its own narrative. While Gold and Silver dominate the headlines and volume, White Gold is up an impressive 200% since January 1, 2025, rivaling the 245% gain seen in Silver (XAG/USD) over the same period. zoom_out_map Metals Performance since 2025 – Source: TradingView Significant alpha remains in trading these proxies as long as the macro catalysts—currency debasement, geopolitical instability, and high global deficits—hold true. With these drivers firmly in place, precious metals continue to see heavy inflows.While supply response may eventually trigger a correction, the current squeeze is undeniable – Late participants to the rally are piling into Platinum, driving it to new record levels. For those who did not know, Platinum is actually rarer than Gold – It has less attraction for Central Banks but still represent the top-notch of precious metals.We will now examine the technicals of XPT/USD through a multi-timeframe analysis to see why it may be the favored trade in the days ahead. Read More:Gold rally hits $4,900: Why the January FOMC, geopolitics, and technical warnings mark a critical juncture?Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) eyeing $5,000 and beyond as bullish acceleration intactChart alert: USD/JPY plunging below 158 on suspected intervention, watch 157.50 supportPlatinum (XPT/USD) Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Platinum Daily Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum is extending higher after a 3-week triangle consolidation which allowed overbought RSI levels to come back to more sustainable levels, now also forming a Daily Upward Channel.Bulls have reacted strongly to the test of the 20-Day Moving Average (currently at $2,325) and stands as significant technical indicator to monitor the trend. Remaining above keeps up prospects for the metal.A key potential Fibonacci Extension (found using End-December down swings) projects a potential resistance at $2,700.Looking at the immediate bull strength, the resistance could easily be breached However, there could be profit-taking warnings as Silver and Gold reach their new milestones which could lead to further reactions in XPT/USD.Rejecting $2,700 could see a quick test of the $2,400 Pivot Zone (breakout-retest)Breaking back above $2,770 will see no resistance until the $2,900 to $3,000 projection.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum 4H Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,695 current session and all-time highsPotential Resistance at Fib Extension (1.382) $2,700 to $2,770Potential Resistance 2 at Fib Extension $2,900 to $3,000 and Channel highsSupport levels$2,450 to $2,525 December record Pivot$2,400 4H MA 50 and 20-Day MA$2,200 to $2,300 2008 Pivotal Support 2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,920Major High Timeframe Support $1,500 to $1,6001H Chart zoom_out_map Platinum 1H Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum has extended towards the $2,700 potential resistance zone – The buying is now stalling a bit.Observing closely, we can monitor the current session's Bull Channel – Rejecting here would add further chances of a $2,400 to $2,520 corrective retest.Nevertheless, with the daily buying being so strong, an upside breakout could also be considered – If bulls push above $2,770, expect a fast-paced path to $2,900-$3,000.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold’s bullish acceleration remains intact: XAU/USD has broken above key supports, hit new all-time highs near US$4,970, and is now eyeing the US$5,000–5,150 zone, with momentum indicators confirming upside continuation.Geopolitics are the dominant macro driver: Rising US–NATO tensions and “sell America/de-dollarization” narratives are lifting geopolitical risk premiums, reinforcing gold’s role as a preferred safe haven.Technical structure supports further upside: A breakout from a medium-term ascending channel, strong RSI/MACD signals, and support holding above US$4,775 keep the near-term bias skewed toward further gains unless that level fails. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) on the brink of bullish acceleration, US$4,780 next”, published on 14 January 2026The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish impulsive up move sequence above the highlighted US$4,512 short-term pivotal support and hit the short-term intermediate resistance of US$4,780 (printed a new intraday all-time high of US$4,967 on Friday, 23 January 2026 at the time of writing).Rising geopolitical risk premiums due to expansionary US foreign policy The recent rise in Gold (XAU/USD) from last Friday, 16 January 2026 swing low of US$4,536 has been reinforced by the “sell America/de-dollarization/debasement” narrative due to the current US expansionary and aggressive foreign policy, where US President Trump threatened long-time NATO allies of the US over the control of Greenland.The escalating confrontation between the US and NATO members signals a potential rupture in the post–World War II global order, with Washington increasingly perceived as stepping away from its traditional role as a responsible anchor of the rules-based, consensus-driven system.As a result, global asset allocators that have heavily overweighted US assets over the past two decades may begin to reassess and trim such exposures amid rising geopolitical risk premiums. This repricing dynamic is reinforcing a positive feedback loop for gold (XAU/USD), as demand for safe-haven assets accelerates in response to an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.Let us now decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trend trajectory of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspectiveShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Bullish acceleration extends zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,775 short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD) to maintain the minor bullish acceleration phase for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$5,000/5,005 and US$5,049/5,149 in the first step (see Fig. 1).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below US$4,775 invalidates the direct rise scenario, allowing a minor corrective decline sequence to unfold and expose the next intermediate supports at US$4,684 and US$4,645/4,600 before another potential bullish upleg materializes.Key elements to support the bullish bias Since its key low of US$4,536 on 16 January 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a gap-up and broken above the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from its 28 October 2025 low, which suggests a transition into a bullish acceleration phase.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition while it continues to hover in its overbought region.The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend upwards above its centreline, which supports the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in Gold (XAU/USD) with its first medium-term resistance at US$5,295/5,348 (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Talking points Rare drivers fuel surge: Rally past $4,900 driven by inflation, fiscal expansion (Stagflation), and geopolitical risk; 2026. Goldman Sachs targets raised to $5,400.FOMC narrative is key: Jan 27-28 meeting expected to hold rates. Focus is on "Neutral Rate" rhetoric: 3.5% terminal rate risks pullback; cooling labor market focus provides a tailwind.Upside supported, retracement warned: COT shows Managed Money not over-extended, however, swap dealers are at their extremes. Highly elevated RSI (78.00) and Stochastic (87.90) show divergence, warning of a potential retracement. The historic rally in gold prices, which saw the metal surge past $4,900 per ounce in late 2025 and early 2026, was driven by a rare convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. With the January 27–28th, 2026, FOMC meeting approaching, the backdrop of high-altitude stability for gold is in focus. Prices have already surged significantly—trading near $4,800–$5,000—driven by a combination of fiscal expansion, geopolitical friction, and institutional uncertainty. The January meeting is less about a "rate move" and more about the "narrative shift."How this meeting is poised to impact gold prices: zoom_out_map Source: CME Group - FOMC January 27 - 28th 2026 meeting - Past performance is not indicative of future results The "Pause" and interest rate path According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the futures markets are pricing in just under two 25-bps interest rate cuts for 2026, with the cut expectations mostly for the second half of 2026. Lower nominal rates reduce the "opportunity cost" of holding gold, which pays no interest, making it more competitive against Treasury bonds.For the January 27 - 28, 2026, FOMC meeting, the market consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% after a string of cuts in late 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool has 95% of participants expecting the FED to hold, meaning a pause is largely priced in. However, gold’s sensitivity to the "Neutral Rate" remains the key variable. If Chair Powell’s press conference suggests that 3.5% is the new floor (the terminal rate) due to resilient growth, gold could see a short-term "profit-taking" pullback. Conversely, if the Fed expresses concern over the cooling labor market (currently adding only 50k jobs/month), markets will pull forward expectations for a June cut, providing a tailwind for non-yielding bullion.Inflation vs. fiscal policy Concerns around Stagflation dominate the 2026 economic landscape. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, remaining near 2.7%–2.8%, while expansionary fiscal policies and tax cuts are propping up growth.Historically, gold has thrived when the Fed was perceived as "behind the curve." If the FOMC statement acknowledges that inflation progress has stalled but refuses to hike rates (due to growth risks), it reinforces gold's status as the ultimate inflation hedge.Institutional independence & geopolitical risk Unusually for an FOMC meeting, non-monetary factors are heavily influencing the "Fed premium" in gold prices. The recent legal and political challenges to the Fed’s independence (including the Supreme Court's scrutiny of Governor Lisa Cook's removal and investigations into Chair Powell) have fueled concerns about the Fed’s independence and its potential impact on future interest rates. Investors are using gold as a hedge against a potential "politicization" of the dollar. Any rhetoric in the Jan 28th statement that hints at defensiveness toward the Fed’s autonomy could actually spike gold prices as a vote of no confidence in the USD. Major banks (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan) have already raised 2026 targets to $5,000–$5,400, suggesting that as long as the Fed doesn't pivot back to aggressive hiking, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward. With all that said, will this price rally continue? We will go over different technical analysis tools and indicators, as well as the most recent COT report released on January 16th, 2026, including data up to January 13th, 2026 Ready to decode market positioning? Register now for our weekly recurring live technical analysis webinar, where we dive into the latest COT report and explore essential technical analysis tools for trading FX, commodities, and market indices.Commitments of traders (COT) report zoom_out_map Source: cotbase.com - COT Gold futures net positions - Past performance is not indicative of future results Managed money (Large speculators): Trend followersUnlike previous peaks where speculators were "over-extended," the current net-long level is not yet at a historical sentiment extreme. Although this suggests there is more room to the upside regarding long positions, and they haven't yet reached the "exhaustion" point that usually precedes a major crash, a negative divergence may be in play as price makes higher highs while long positions are plotting lower highs.Swap dealers: Market makers and hedgersIn contrast to the managed money category, swap dealers, who typically take the other side of the market, have already reached their all-time extreme short level, suggesting a change in sentiment may be due.​Small speculators: Growing participationThere is a noticeable uptick in net long positions from small speculators in early 2026. This indicates that "main street" investors are increasingly entering the market, often in the final stage of a significant price surge.Open interest and volumeAlthough open interest remains high, it is showing a potential negative divergence with price action. Similar to OI, non-trending low volume is also seen along with price appreciation as of November 1st, 2025, which theoretically means that volume was not supportive of the price increase since Nov 1stTechnical analysis: Gold daily chart - Bullish momentum testing resistance zoom_out_map Gold daily chart - XAU/USD - Source: Tradingview.com - Past performance is not indicative of future results The daily chart shows a strong, long-term bullish trend that accelerated significantly in 2026. After a period of consolidation in late 2025, the price has broken out to the upside, currently trading near 4,900.00.As of early 2025, the gold price traded within a widening, rising channel, as indicated by the blue lines on the chart above. The "higher highs and higher lows" structure is well-defined, with the upper channel boundary intersecting with monthly R3 at 4913.58, forming a confluence of resistance.As of late October 2025, following a negative divergence with the RSI that preceded a $200 drop, gold prices rose back up, erasing the drop, breaking above its fast EMA9, the monthly PP of $4345.22, and the baseline of multiple higher lows, as marked by the red lines on the chart.A confluence of support lies beneath the price action, represented by the intersection of the EMA9, the breakout level (red line), and the newly formed price gap near $4630.00. The price gap may suggest an island formation; however, that’s yet to be determined.RSI (14) is currently at 78.00, indicating the asset is in overbought territory. A potential negative divergence remains between price and RSI.​Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The Stochastic oscillator is also highly elevated (87.90), confirming strong bullish momentum but suggesting that a short-term “cooling off” period or minor retracement toward the EMA may be imminent. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes push higher yet again amid the latest Trump TACONow extending towards the Monday Futures gap, Stocks are back to neutral-bull territory – Key levels still have to be brokenExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 This morning brought a fresh wave of optimism to Wall Street.First, traders received an update from the Trump Administration regarding Greenland. The recent rhetoric had posed significant sentiment hurdles, triggering repricings after a positive start to 2026. The situation shifted yesterday afternoon when Trump posted that a framework for Greenland's strategic use by the US had been reached. While details remain unclear, the tone is calmer, easing fears of a NATO collapse or armed invasion. However, Greenland will likely continue to assert its sovereignty, meaning tensions could flare if the deal does not align with local views.Combined with the latest data, US sentiment is back at highs. Q3 GDP beat expectations (4.4% vs 4.3% expected), arriving alongside slight misses in PCE data. This combination supports a soft-landing scenario, the most favorable outcome for stocks.The ongoing earnings season is also leaving a decent impression. The key Magnificent 7 reports still face the test of extreme expectations, but the path should become clearer ahead of the January 28 FOMC meeting. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and ASML report after the close on FOMC day, while Apple and Visa follow on Thursday. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 22, 2026 The picture is once again very green all around the Market, with Meta leading to the upside (+4.22%) and Mag 7s sustaining well after their more volatile 2025 year-end.This expresses some repositioning ahead of their earnings next week.Energy Minerals and Producer Manufacturing are among the lagging sectors.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for pre-weekend volatility as the situation is fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Natural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next?Why silver prices in the US and China have diverged so sharplyA New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now easily brushing back above the 49,000 level, the DJIA is testing its all-time highs.The Morning 4H Candle just closed and expresses some form of momentum slowdown at previous highs, confirming more rangebound price action that could be expected all the way to next week's FOMC.Breaking and closing above the 49,715 all-time highs could see follow through as long as a break occurs on strong volume – Momentum has got more bullish but the TACO spike could slow downA pullback here could easily test the 49,150 level which crosses with the 4H 50-period MAAny session close below the 49,000 key level brings back seller strength which could move towards the 4H 200-MA (48,620)Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 49,62849,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,150 4H 50-period MAChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 Intraday support 48,600 to 48,700November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Mini-SupportPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is once again stuck in its higher timeframe Range (24,500 to 25,800) which has been containing its progress since its October drop.The two-session rebound is still very impressive, with the index up 2.50% during that span.Looking further to higher timeframes, consolidations at relative all-time highs are a positive sign as it allows Overbought conditions from the previous year to largely ease – Conditions needed for clean breakouts.Still, bulls will have to manage a daily close above the 25,700 Resistance in order to generate further momentum and potentially push for a new all-time high record.Next week's earnings will have a huge influence on Stock Movement. Keep a close attention to the Fed's communications next week.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,625Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,425Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is about 100 points higher compared to our past day analysis, but the index is expressing some technical doubts as it faces a retest of its Monday Futures Gap (6,930).The current dragonfly doji candle indicates decent bull resilience but general balanced action which could easily lead to a retest of the 6,880 to 6,900 Pivot area.For bull/bear indications, traders can spot whether the action remains above the 4H 50-period MA (6,915) – closing below on high volume can prompt a further correction to 6,830-6,850, past day support levels.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,938Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportDon't forget to stay close to the headlines as the World Economic Forum is still ongoing!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices steadied near $4 880 an ounce, just below record highs, after tensions over Greenland eased following a diplomatic breakthrough between Donald Trump, Europe, and NATO, temporarily cooling safe-haven demand.Geopolitical risk and concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence continue to support gold.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce, citing strong demand from private investors and central banks, while silver and other precious metals also extended gains. Gold stabilizes after a political storm zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of Gold, source: TradingView Gold prices steadied near $4 880 an ounce, very close to yesterday's all-time high, after tensions surrounding Greenland eased. For several sessions, the metal had hovered close to record levels, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating diplomatic strains.Important was shift in tone from the White House. Donald Trump withdrew the threat of tariffs against Europe following an agreement with allies on a “framework for a future deal” concerning Greenland.Greenland, NATO, and financial marketsThe understanding announced after talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte includes a strengthened NATO presence, the stationing of U.S. missile systems, and rules governing mining rights—aimed at limiting Chinese influence in the region. The meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos “took some of the temperature out of U.S.–EU tensions,” although there are still “plenty of dip-buyers” supporting gold prices.Goldman Sachs raises its forecastDespite the near-term cooling, the outlook for gold remains robust. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its year-end gold price forecast to $5 400 an ounce, citing intensifying demand from private investors and central banks. Analysts emphasized that risks are “significantly skewed to the upside” amid lingering global policy uncertainty.Silver and other metals also advance zoom_out_map Daily Timeframe of Silver, source: TradingView Silver climbed as much as 2.8% and reach new all-time high at $96 an ounce and reversing earlier losses. Over the past year, prices have tripled, boosted by a historic short squeeze and heavy retail buying. Platinum and palladium also edged higher, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped slightly, offering additional support to precious metals.What’s next?Gold underlying fundamentals remain strong. Geopolitics, monetary policy, and structural investment demand continue to keep gold—and precious metals more broadly—firmly in the global market spotlight. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Natural Gas explodes to up 70% since the Friday closeSupply bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions and oversold prices build a cocktail for price explosionExploring Technical Levels for Natural Gas Natural Gas, historically highly correlated with WTI Oil, has largely decoupled over the past four sessions.While the weekly correlation ranged between 0.20 and 1.00 since 2020, it has turned close to negative in late 2025.Since the Sunday open, US Natural Gas prices have exploded by approximately 60%.While initially attributed to fears of European supply disruptions amid recent EU-US trade tensions, the reality is more complex.US output sits at decade lows.Persistently low prices have disincentivized production following the record output of 2023-2024, creating a supply bottleneck just as the Northern Hemisphere enters its coldest period.This winter differs significantly from recent years. Previous warm seasons created storage gluts and led to assumptions that milder winters were the new norm. However, the current reality is harsh (This current winter is a cold one, based in Montreal I can only confirm), challenging those assumptions.Simultaneously, power generation demand is surging.The need to power AI data centers and metal smelting operations—sectors currently seeing high demand—is outpacing futures delivery schedules, fueling this price acceleration.Stress on the system is amplified by the US's role as the world's leading LNG exporter, particularly to Europe following the closure of Russian supply routes.Consequently, demand spikes or supply troughs in Europe now have immediate impacts on US spot prices.The market is facing a perfect storm: a severe winter, rising global energy demand, and escalating tensions between key suppliers and constrained consumers.Add to this the instability in Iran—holder of the second-largest proven gas reserves—and persistent global conflicts, and the result is an explosive mix for prices.We will now dive into the Natural Gas charts, ranging from daily to intraday timeframes, to identify the trajectory of this squeeze, potential retracement levels, and historical context. Read More:Why silver prices in the US and China have diverged so sharplyA New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateHang Seng Index forecast: Dropped 1.5% but bullish trend intact with USD weakness as a tailwindNatural Gas Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) Weekly Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Natural Gas is posting a gigantic Bullish Marabozu candle (which doesn't show any wicks) indicating high pressure to the current Market.Now breaking outside of its 2024 Upward Channel, further upside could easily be warranted.The RSI is quickly moving to overbought levels and the daily action faces a short-term challenge at the 2022 Pivotal Resistance ($5.25 to $5.50).Current prices remain about 40% to the 20-Week MA highs (which got up to $7.194)!To trade Natural gas with close precision and further clues on physical supply/demand balances, keep a close eye on the EIA's daily reports – Today In Energy.Moving averages will be long to catch up to such a squeeze and won't serve as ideal technical indicators on higher timeframes (Weekly, Daily).One may rather look for support and resistance levels and Fibonacci-retracements for entries and exits.Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) Daily Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 75% rise since Friday close is a frightening picture – This weekly close will be very key for upcoming action. See why on the intraday timeframe just below.Levels of interest for Natural Gas tradingResistance Levels$5.30 to $5.50 Immediate Resistance$5.68 Session and Weekly Highs2022 Key Pivot (As Resistance) $6.00 to $6.20December 2022 Resistance level $6.60 to $6.95August 2022 Record $10.15ATH in 2005 at $15.51Support Levels$5.00 to $5.20 Break-Retest support$5.00 Psychological mini-support$4.60 to $4.75 Major Momentum Pivot (61.8% Fib)$4.20 Pivotal Support ($4.10 4H MA 50)$3.60 Monday Support and 200-Day MA$3.00 August 2025 Support2H Chart zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) 2H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the extreme squeeze throughout the past few days, the action is reacting to some overbought levels and marking intermediate tops.With the current $5.67 Wick being rejected, Nat Gas is reacting well to the $5.30 to $5.50 Resistance Zone, which will act as key barometer for bull/bear strength:Breaking above on the Daily hints at a quick test of the $6.00 ResistanceRemaining here indicates a short-term pullback to the $5.00-$5.20 Break-Retest support – Look at the 2H 20-period MA.Correcting then bouncing from there would be the most sustainable bull-path for the commodityBreaking the $5.00 Support however should see a calmer price-action, extending the potential correction to $4.60 which will be an interesting Pivotal Support area.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes rebound swiftly as Trump spoke in Davos but mid-session brings profit-takingEntire Market is propped up by better sentiment as speech tone easesExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Buyers are rising again this morning following a difficult start to the week.Sentiment had been negative since the weekend following comments from the Trump Administration regarding the acquisition of Greenland.The demands is blunt , and the primary concern is that this extends aggressive policy toward historic allies, going beyond conflicts with nations like Venezuela or Iran.Anxiety peaked yesterday after the EU suspended the July US-EU Trade Agreement, but today's bullish price action suggests the market is already moving forward.President Trump's generally not-so-aggressive tone at Davos helped sentiment, as he avoided escalating tensions further – He said that he won't use force.However, doubts persist, as EU leaders likely require a retraction of the Greenland rhetoric before tensions truly ease.Commodities are seeing a significant rebound today. WTI Oil rose to $60, and Natural Gas extended its squeeze with another 20% daily gain. In the metals complex, Gold and Platinum rose 3% to fresh highs, while Silver found resistance near $93.Except for European benchmarks, Stock Markets are shining green around the globe as TACO hopes make their return, with all US Indexes up around 1% or more today and the Nikkei catching up from its recent fall. zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium The economic calendar remains light for the rest of the session – Notable releases include a high Canadian PPI report, reflecting supply chain rerouting from tariffs, and a sharp decline in US Pending Home Sales, which fell 9.3% against expectations of a 0.4% rise.Tomorrow brings crucial PCE and GDP data, the final inputs before next week's FOMC meeting. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (10:57 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 21, 2026 The picture is looking very green throughout except for MSFT not following its Magnificent 7 peers and Consumer Defensives struggling.US Stocks could be posing a session top as profit-taking flows form – Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for potential bull traps! Read More:The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifiesDown day for Trump's second-term anniversary – North American session Market wrap for January 20Dow Jones 2H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA really rallied back fast, breaking out of its past day corrective sequence and retesting the 49,000 Momentum Pivot Area.Momentum has showed some doubtful signs overall – The spiky action from today's rebound shows a general slowdown in volumes as uncertainty still reigns this Market.The 2H RSI is back to bullish territory but the reactions to a neutral area retest will have to be monitored as the buying action stalls at the 200-MA (48,978).Looking at where we are, remaining above the session support at 48,700 adds further chances of a real rebound.Closing below 48,600 would hint at a bull-trap until the uncertainty clears.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 (2H MA 200 48,970)Session Highs 49,067Short Timeframe Resistance 49,200 to 49,30049,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsIntraday support 48,600 to 48,700November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 SupportSession lows 48,339Psychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still not cleared out of its descending sequence.The ongoing correction is actually retracing a big part of this morning's rally. Failing to repass above its 25,000 Pivotal support zone, the mid-term outlook remains bearish for the tech-heavy index.Still, as long as the overall action holds above the 24,500 Range lows (Key Support), the longer-term outlook remains positive.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 pts2H MA 50 and Session highs 25,330Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250session lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView A key test is appearing for the S&P 500 as it tests the lows of its Key session Support area (6,830 to 6,850) – Rebounding here relaunches better prospects.However if things remain like this, sellers could take the lead.Any session close below 6,830 would confirm further downside for the S&P as it forms yet another downward sequence, combined with a bearish 50-200 Moving Average cross in intraday timeframes.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,9004H 200-period MA at 6,887Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (testing)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

President Trump is beginning his speech at the Davos World Economic Forum.You can get access to his speech right here.The Market is looking anxious around here as it can easily be expected to hear some volatile comments from the President.Expect WEF Headlines throughout the session – US Stock Futures are down (small), Energy assets are rising (particularly Natural Gas) and Gold is exploding yet again, up $100 today for now and heading towards $5,000 while Silver corrects (??!!). zoom_out_map Pre-open Futures – Source: Finviz – January 21, 2026 zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, heading to $5,000. Source: TradingView Read More:The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifies Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes reject their recent highs as Trade uncertainty returns Still, dip-buyers are showing resilience, taking Stock Indexes back higher after a rough post-MLK Day Session open.Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Wise traders usually refrain from trying to make sense of Market movement – And rightfully so.After two consecutive rejection days for US Indexes (and their Futures as Stock Markets were closed yesterday), dip-buyers are coming right back to the Market.Opening 2% below their Friday close on average, Stock Indexes were struggling to find any optimism in the headlines before US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saved the day.His latest comments eased the pessimistic sentiment, saying that he is "urging everyone here to [...] take a deep breath, and let things play out", and not to retaliate against the US. A Passive-aggressive tone from the Treasury secretary, but traders seem to be leaning more to the passive side. Participants seem to take this comment as a guide for yet another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) in his schemes. My own thesis is that it could be a gigantic farce to distract the world from Iran, but it's just a theory.In case you missed it, Bessent also pinpointed next week as the day the world will learn the President's choice for the next Fed Chair. This will be a key event for upcoming sessions as traders prepare for Earnings Season.In any case, US Stock Futures were down ~1.50% at one point in the morning session and are now coming right back to unchanged – A significant shift in sentiment.US spot Indexes are still down around 1%, catching up with yesterday's red day in futures trading. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:26 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 20, 2026 Intel is one of the only green Stock in today's session – The large Government stake in the company allows it to rebound well. However, looking at the rest of the Market, the picture is bleak.Mag 7s are struggling quite harshly, but things could get better as we near their earnings season – It will of course depend on whether they can beat their high expectations. zoom_out_map Expected Earnings for Mag 7 Stocks – Source: Forbes, Bloomberg Netflix is reporting today after the close, Intel reports on Thursday and for the majority of other Mega Caps, participants will have to await for next Wednesday.We will explore as we dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifiesUS Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 4H 200-period Moving Average is coming at clutch time to save the day, particularly as Scott Bessent timed his comments well, leading to a 0.80% bounce.Still, bulls will have to push today's session close above the Key Momentum Pivot at 48,870 to push Sentiment higher and confirm the TACO (headlines would tend to follow the rebound).Failing to break above the Pivot Zone points to further downside, where the 48,000 Major Support level could be attained swiftly.Below this, the Dow enters bearish territory.Except for Thursday's PCE data and GDP data, there won't be much other than a de-escalation between the EU and US to pump Markets.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot as Resistance – 481870Session Highs 48,94149,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsSession lows and 4H 200-MA 48,530November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 SupportPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView As indicated in our Friday Index analysis, Nasdaq is remaining in a large range between 24,500 and 25,800 since End-November.Now reacting strongly to its 25,000 Mini-Support Zone, bulls will want to confirm the range by retesting at least its newly formed Downward Channel highs (around 25,500).With the 4H 50 and 200-period MAs acting as resistances there, a push beyond would relaunch the Nasdaq to some new highs.Failing to do so could see further profit-taking/ rangebound price action for the Index.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 pts4H MA 50 and 200 at ~25,500Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250Session lows 24,97724,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Spoose was showing strong resilience, looking the most favorable technically to its peers.However, things have changed as the Triangle Formation presented on Friday has been broken to the downside, and today's rebound is seeing harsh rejection at its 6,880 Momentum Pivot – The Outlook for the S&P 500 is now bearish.The 4H MA 200 (6,887) will act as Major resistance.Breaking back above brings back bullish hopesA rejection there however could quickly lead to a test of the Mid-December lows at 6,729.Watch the latest headlines to see if they corroborate with more uncertainty or an actual TACO (which would be bullish)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,9004H 200-period MA at 6,887Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsSession lows 6,8206,800 Psychological SupportSupport 6,720 to 6,750 at Mid-December lows at 6,7296,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As Macron noted, this trading week initiates what many call the new world disorder – "A world without rules". This shift arguably began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the precedent has only deepened. With Trump landing in Davos tomorrow for the WEF, global leaders are voicing strong concerns about the current geopolitical landscape.The latest Board of Peace initiatives from the Trump administration appear designed to further sideline the UN. Consequently, the US Dollar is facing further rejection as market participants diversify away from erratic US policies. Confidence in the Greenback as a stable reserve currency is eroding as fears from 2025 materialize.These fears include tariffs, provocations against allies, and attacks on Federal Reserve independence. Despite the US Economy's and Fed's resilience, capital is flowing away from the Dollar. Gold hit new record highs this morning (to $4,750) as a direct beneficiary. Conversely, the Japanese Yen remains in a steep downtrend driven by debt burdens and rising yields, hence it can't really sustain its safe-haven reputation.In this environment, the Swiss Franc has emerged as the primary safe haven. With SNB rates at 0%, it is also becoming a target for the carry trade. As risk assets like stocks and crypto face rejection alongside the Dollar, the Franc is up another 1% in today's session.Let's explore the multi-timeframe chart analysis for USD/CHF to see where these flows might take the high-volume traded pair. Explore:EUR/USD hints a breakout after latest Trump-Greenland chaosUS Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifiesUSD/CHF Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/CHF Daily Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CHF has been stuck in a broader range since July 2025, unable to manage a proper rebound or continue to the downside as the geopolitical and economic dynamics completely eased in the second half.Volatility is now back to some extremes in FX Markets, particularly in a pair normally held in a ~400 pip average daily range – Today's 1.10% max movement took USD/CHF down some monthly lows and prompting a further breakdown.Indeed, the action had completely waned out but bears could retake the upper hand looking at the ongoing themes, combined with a 200-Day Moving Average which just caught up with prices.Sellers also used the 50-Day MA (0.7987) as selling signal and will act as key pivotal indicator for bull/bear action going forward.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CHF 4H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dip-buyers are now attempting a retracement from the key support. Still, some key supports which quickly turned into resistances will now have to be breached for a further rebound (without counting a strong turn in current fundamentals).Look for key reactions at the 0.7950 - 0.7960 resistance.Levels of interest for USD/CHF TradingResistance levels0.7925 Minor Pivot0.7950 - 0.7960 Key ResistanceShort-timeframe pivot 0.7990 and 4H 50-period MA (yesterday's highs)Support levels0.79 (+80 pips) 2025 main support (Immediate BounceCurrent Session Lows 0.78782011 support 0.7830 to 0.78602025 Lows 0.78301H Chart zoom_out_map USD/CHF 1H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer shows how steep the current move is, with dip-buyers re-entering the pair.When watching the current pace of the selloff, mean-reversion is not suprising but might also not be long-lived.A 15 point rally to the 0.7925 Pivot is not far away, and forming a pullback-top here will test the session lows.Below that, the next major point will be found at the 2025 0.7830 lowsIf bulls manage a rebound above, the 0.7950 Resistance looks like a decent entry for sellers to retake the advantageUSD/CHF can really breakout higher only in the event of another Trump TACO.Keep a close eye on the WEF headlines!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Even with Stock Markets closed in the US, Futures trading brought selling flows as EU-US tensions regarding Greenland mount – The US Dollar also got rejectedEU Leaders are planning emergency meetings even with the World Economic Forum ongoing in DavosUS Dollar, Dow Jones and Gold technical analysis American traders are off today, and it would be easier on them if they were the only ones trading US products (like Canada, for example).Unfortunately, the entire world is trading and selling US products even when traditional markets are closed. That's what it is to represent the global reserve currency.After this weekend's renewed Trump-induced volatility, US assets are falling off a cliff, and for not unjustified reasons.The US President repeated his threats to purchase Greenland for national security, prompting EU leaders to plan an emergency meeting outside the freshly began Davos World Economic Forum (WEF).Threats include not only additional 10% tariffs on major EU partners (including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland), but also a significant compromise to the NATO alliance.On that aspect, US President Trump and EU President Von Der Leyen haven't planned any meeting during the WEF, a first.US stock Futures, which are trading, albeit on thinner volumes, are getting sold off aggressively, and this isn't helping the US dollar or US Treasuries, which are also getting rejected, pricing in more US risk premium. Stock Markets are closed today in celebration of Martin Luther King Day.Gold and Silver, on the other hand, have gapped higher to new all-time highs.Will this be another TACO? Time will tell, but the US president sure is unpredictable.It could also be a distraction for the ongoing military movements in the Middle East regarding Iran, but it is just a theory for now.Let's take a look at the Dow Jones, Gold, and the US Dollar to spot where things are to start this already volatile week. DiscoverGreenland as the trigger of a new trade warImpact on US-EU tensions: Risk-off, US dollar subdued, heightened demand for Gold and SilverMarkets enter Tension-Mode – Markets Weekly OutlookA look at US Index Futures zoom_out_map US Index Futures Daily Performance – Courtesy of Finviz Despite the Stock Market closure for MLK Day in the US, Index Futures are getting sold off quite harshly since the Globex Open.Higher-Beta Nasdaq futures are getting hit the strongest, down 1.60% at its trough.Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow (and all other US Indexes) suffered from the news, gapping down harshly at the Sunday open and struggling to form a meaningful bounce.Having broken its short-term momentum area and testing its higher timeframe pivotal support (48,800 to 48,900), the price action is getting close to bearish territory.Consolidating at the session lows opens the chances of a Pivot break, taking the action to a bearish outlookDepending on what news follow, sellers can easily break the 48,300 Support for a quick test of 48,000. More on this as Stock Markets reopen in the US.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsShort-term Pivot 49,200 to 49,300 and 4H 50-MA49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levelssession lows 48,89548,800 to 48,900 Pivotal Support and November Channel LowsPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)US Dollar 4H Chart zoom_out_map US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart – January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView After pointing toward some imminent weakness, the US dollar formed a quick turn to the downside, rejecting its 99.50 Pivot Area.Now trading below, the price action is turning bearish, particularly backed by its Upward Channel break and formation of a downtrend. The 4H RSI also confirms a now bearish action.The 98.50 Support is a weak one, nevertheless, check out the reactions around current trading levels to spot if bears manage a push below the 4H 50-MA (99.00).Breaking it should test the 98.00 Support – Look for trade which express such views in FX Major pairs.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Key Pivot2026 Highs 99.49100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels99.00 4H 50-MA (testing)98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportGold 4H Chart zoom_out_map XAU/USD (Gold) 4H Chart – January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold gapped higher by 1.24% at the Sunday evening open, which then saw an explosion to $4,691, session and all-time high.The price action is now consolidating above around the $4,670 zone, upper bound of the Fib-Induced resistance.As mentioned in our past week analysis, despite the gaps higher to start the week, Metals are forming some profit-taking price action patterns with their momentum slowing down – Their start to 2026 really was fast-paced.Momentum should pick-up if bulls push prices above $4,700.If not, short-term dip-buyers can look at a test of the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Below this, the price action gets more bearish and would point to a larger correction.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,691 Current session and all-time HighPotential Resistance 2 $4,700 to $4,720Top of Daily Channel and Psychological Level $5,000Support Levels4H 50-MA $4,566Previous ATH Pivot (as Support) $4,500 to $4,550Major Intraday Support $4,400 and 200 MADecember 31 Mini-Support Support $4,280Weekly Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes rebound across the world but anxiety remainsHaving passed a few tests from CPI, PPI and NFP, the uncertain environment is preventing a full-blown bullish momentum.Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The picture is mixed but red in US stocks today, even after the remarkable turnaround from mid-week turbulence, as prospects of a US intervention in Iran rattled investor sentiment.This week gave participants a lot to work with, hammered by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the DOJ's investigation into Chair Powell, which delivered a combo-punch to markets that had been rising in a one-way upside end-December 2025.The geopolitical threat has subsided, but it has definitely not withered away. US President Trump stated in an interview on Wednesday afternoon that the "killing [was] stopping," implying that a US intervention would no longer be necessary. Still, comments from American diplomats suggest a passive-aggressive approach for the time being.As noted in our Oil market analysis from yesterday, while the odds of an intervention before the end of January are still hovering around 30%, the most immediate intervention threats appear to be behind us. zoom_out_map Odds of a US Intervention in Iran before January 31 – Source: Polymarket Traders should still keep a close eye on WTI prices. The fact that Oil is holding above $58.50 suggests the market is retaining an intervention premium. At the same time, Iranian revolts continue – You can see that in the rebound in Oil today (up to $60 at its highs today).Any surprise attack by the US would trigger a strong reaction, likely bearish for equities and bullish for commodities.With the political headwind largely removed, stocks are trading in confusion, far from bearish, as Indexes remain close to all-time highs but can't seem to discount the uncertainty looming across Markets. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:15 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 16, 2026 Except for Product Manufacturing, performing well throughout the week despite the risk-aversion, the rest of the Stock Market picture is red.We will explore as we dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Why is the US Dollar so strong to start 2026? EUR/USD and Dollar Index overviewMetals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the Dow's huge reversal on Wednesday, confusion remains: Moving Averages are flat-lining (indicating sideways action) and the current session's 4H Candle forms a huge doji.This also comes as bulls couldn't maintain the main 2026 upward trendline.The price action is forming a large range between 49,000 to 49,700 (ATH) which provides clear boundaries for a breakout or breakdown.Breaking above the session highs would surely lead to some new all-time highs. Looking at the current themes, it would mostly happen on some positive news.Except for the Davos Meeting next week, not much is on the line for US data next week.Breaking below the session lows would see a test of the 49,000 Mini-Support zone but below this, the price action will get bearish.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levelssession lows 49,259Short-term Pivot 49,200 to 49,300 (daily support)49,000 Minor Support48,600 to 48,800 Major Support and November Channel LowsPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still remaining quite rangebound between 24,500 and 25,800. The issue for bulls at this point is that we are reaching the upper bound of the range and now forming some bearish RSI divergences.On the other hand, the action is remaining resilient as seen with today's rebound from the lows and the forming of a 4H doji. Breaking above (25,760) means further upside a regaining the All-Time Highs.Below (25,450) could see a new test of the December lows around 24,500.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 CPI fakeoutSession highs 25,760All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts – Session lows 25,450Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is the best looking index overall but also forming indecision patterns.Now in a large triangle formation, similar breakout scenarios can be estimated to put odds on your side:Breaking above (6,980) should easily lead to new all-time highs.Below (6,930) should at least test the Wednesday lows at 6,894. Below this, the action gets more bearish.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,970Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Session lows 6,9306,800 Psychological SupportSupport 6,720 to 6,7506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite what the banks and global analysts say in their 2026 projections, the Dollar has strengthened since the start of the year and shows only few signs of weakening.Of course, we are just halfway through January; there is still plenty of time for things to change. However, the Dollar's trajectory is now looking quite different.The Dollar Index isn't at 110.00 like it was just a year ago, before the Greenback corrected by 10% against all of its major peers – now hanging right around the 100.00 level. Consolidating since mid-July, bears have mostly barked, but the harsh descent seems already over.The reason for that? US economic performance is still beating its competitors despite tariffs, and US firms, particularly in the Tech and AI sectors, are dominant.Despite fears and headlines, American employment is still in a decent spot and has stalled its expected decline, as reflected in recent Jobless Claims and Non-Farm payroll numbers.To add injury to insult, the US Federal Funds Rate is the highest among the majors (except for the Bank of England's Rate, with which it is tied), leaving basis trades well active. zoom_out_map Interest Rates from OECD Countries – Courtesy of TradingEconomics It wasn't just the Greenback that was targeted last year – currency debasement hit all majors, as seen in Gold's performance against the OECD FX Basket.So is the Dollar still in danger? Yes. Policy directives from the Trump Administration can be unpredictable for nations and investors – Look at Canada PM Mark Carney turning to China for a Trade Deal in the absence of such from the US.And of course, the Fed's Independence at stake keeps hurting the Buck's prospects, notably fueling rallies in metals since August, but hasn't shown much change since, even with the latest Powell Investigation from the DOJ.But as long as commodities are still priced in US Dollars, Banks and firms still require Dollar funding, and the US Treasury is still the most liquid, safe-haven asset available, the Dollar can't just disappear from the system – leading to the current market conditions. Finally, with the recent interventions in Venezuela, threats to Iran, the dollar saw demand from Freedom Trade flows.On the other hand, some technical signals could point to a short-term correction in the USD demand.We will look at the Dollar Index and EUR/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar after its strong, surprising start to 2026. Read More:Metals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Chart Alert: Japanese yen short squeeze risk,158.15 key USD/JPY triggerDollar Index Daily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is rallying quite strongly since breaking out of its descending sequence from November.Rebounding in a very consistent uptrend, the DXY has held support and shown no corrections since December 24.However, now reaching the highs of its 99.50 Resistance Zone, momentum is weakening as can be seen on the Daily RSI.Let's see what will tilt the scales on the 4H Chart.4H Chart and Levels of Interest zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Showing a bear divergence in the 4H timeframe RSI, combined with the reaction to the resistance level, it looks like the Dollar is losing some steam.Still, keep a close eye on the confluence of the 4H 50-MA at 98.96 and the 2026 Channel lows.Breaking that level would point to continued downside and could retest the December 2025 Lows at 97.75.In the event of any intervention in Iran, the Dollar can also spike above to keep that in mind.Overall, the Moving Averages are flatlining in the US Dollar, indicating further consolidation/rangebound action for the time being.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.502026 Highs 99.49100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.96 4H 50-MA and Channel Lows98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportEUR/USD 4H chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is showing reactions corroborating with the slowing momentum in the DXY.Bouncing from the 1.16 Support and Channel lows, mean-reversion should hold well towards the 4H 50-MA at 1.1655.Rallying on high volume and candles could easily lead to a break out of the descending channel towards the flatlining 200-Period Moving Average (at 1.17).Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (Channel Highs and 4H 50-MA)1.17 4H 200-MA1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1580 to 1.16 Key Support1.1560 Channel lows1.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.1593Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Weekend Risk and Headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Intervention risk is rising: USD/JPY stalled near the 159.45–159.75 resistance zone, levels historically linked to BoJ intervention, triggering sharp yen volatility as officials escalated verbal warnings, including the possibility of joint US–Japan action.JPY short squeeze risk is elevated: Speculative positioning in JPY futures has fallen to a one-year low, signalling crowded bearish bets. Any sustained USD/JPY downside could force short covering and amplify yen strength.Near-term technical bias turning lower: Bullish momentum in USD/JPY is fading, with a break below 158.15 likely to trigger a minor bearish reversal toward 157.50–156.12, while only a decisive move above 159.75 would revive upside risk. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention risk”, published on 13 January 2026.The price actions of the USD/JPY have staged the expected push up and hit the lower limit of the first immediate resistance zone of 159.45/159.75 (printed an intraday high of 159.45 on Wednesday,14 January 2026. Coincidentally, it was also the same intraday high of 159.45 on 12 July 2024 that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last intervened in the FX market to sell down the US dollar.The Japanese yen has been the most volatile among major currencies in the last three trading sessions. The JPY hit an 18-month low against the greenback on Tuesday, 13 January 2026, at 159.17 per US dollar, despite a slew of verbal interventions from Japanese authorities at the start of this week.USD/JPY K-shaped performance evaporated as intervention risk intensified zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The “strongest form of verbal intervention” comes in today’s Asia session (Friday, 16 January 2026), where Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama reiterated Tokyo’s readiness to act against excessive yen moves and, for the first time this week, highlighted the possibility of a US-Japan joint intervention in the FX market ahead of a thinning liquidity environment today (ahead of the weekend as well as the closure of US stock market on next Monday, 19 January for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day).The USD/JPY dropped by 0.4% to hit an intraday low of 157.95 and erased its earlier “K-shaped” performance in the FX market before it rebounded slightly to 158.20 at the time of writing (see Fig. 1).JPY futures positioning points to the risk of a short squeeze zoom_out_map Fig. 2: JPY futures large speculators net positions, excluding commercials net positions as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Based on the Commitment of Traders report compiled by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 6 January 2026, the number of large speculators’ net long positions in the JPY futures market, excluding commercials (hedgers) net positions, has declined to a 1-year low at 20,983 contracts (see Fig. 2).Being a contrary opinion indicator, the positioning by large speculators in the JPY futures has skewed towards a significant degree of bearish bias on the JPY, and a minor bullish reversal in the price action of the JPY can amplify the risk of a short squeeze due to “JPY shorts” scrambling to exit in light of the intervention risk as highlighted above.Let’s now highlight the short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key technical levels to watch on the USD/JPY.Bullish momentum is fading for USD/JPY, at risk of minor bearish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY major and medium-term trends as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The reintegration back below 158.30/158.35 on the USD/JPY, coupled with the bearish divergence condition and the bearish breakdown of its former parallel ascending support on the 1-hour RSI momentum indicator, suggests that a potential minor bearish reversal is brewing (see Fig. 3).Watch the 159.45/159.75 short-term pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY. A break below 158.15 opens scope for a minor bearish reversal to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.50, 157.00 (20-day moving average), followed by 156.12 (50-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance above 159.75 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.24/160.35 and 161.00/161.10. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.