Ongoing War flows have been very different from what the trading and investing world has been accustomed to.Safe-haven assets like Metals (particularly Gold and Silver) and Bonds have not seen any consistent demand. At the same time, Stock Markets and risk sentiment in general have remained very solid despite stagflationary fears.Only Oil and, consequently, the Petrodollar, have managed to grab consistent attention and generate persistent trends.One question remains for Metals aficionados – Where is the flight to demand towards them? Silver and Global Conflicts since 1970s – Source: TradingView Their previous run higher throughout their borderline insane performance from mid-2025 to January 2026 could explain exhausted buyers.When people get heavily positioned in an asset class, buyers run out of bullets (to buy more), supply increases to capture the higher values and it distorts the previous stock-shortage that led to previous price increases.this heavy positioning was outlined in the recent Bank of America survey.As a matter of fact, the ongoing War could be what is holding Silver and Metals prices at current levels – After the Late January price tumble, their correction suddenly stalled at a similar time that WTI began to rally and the ongoing US-Iran War began to enter Market discussions.So that could open the door for a large correction in the event of a war resolution! Metals performance since last February – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 Still, the global economy is largely different than it was just a few years ago, with the second round of Trump Trade Wars, de-globalization and persistent rise of new conflicts.It wouldn't be surprising to never see $20 Silver prices again, but $50 is not completely out of the picture – In the meantime, traders can profit from the hesitant price action by playing ongoing consolidation around the asset classes.We will dive into a Silver multi-timeframe analysis to spot the current range in the Metal and explore potential breakout levels. Let's get right into it. Read More:Markets resist and volatility fades – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateBitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why Bitcoin's recovery still lacks the ingredients for a decisive bullish turnChart alert: WTI crude oil resumes uptrend above $88.00 despite historical IEA stockpile releaseSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart Silver Daily Chart, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver has now remained in a $80 to $96 range since the end of February, holding the top of its 2025 (broken) upward Channel as Support – A major technical indicator to track bull strength.RSI momentum has died down in the higher timeframe, indicating current equilibrium around current prices – this confirms after the failed breakdown in early March and consequent failed breakout. This provides quality indications for a rangebound price action.Let's take a closer look4H Chart and Technical Levels Silver 4H Chart, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, bears are entering at the highs of the triangle formation, pointing to interesting tests coming ahead:Breaking the $84.50 support trendline (from the 2025 Channel) would hint at the $80 SupportHolding the support would confirm the range towards a $90 reboundBreaking it however could lead to retesting the $70 2026 SupportRebounding on the Support trendline could lead to an imminent rebound towards the $90 to $92 Resistance (less probable with current RSI conditions)Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:$87 Session highs (Mini-Resistance)Key Range Resistance $90 to $92Higher Timeframe Major Resistance $90 to $95$96.47 March highsSupport Levels:Triangle Support $84.50 (short-term bearish below)2025 Record Pivot $80 to $82Key Momentum Support $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)$50 to $54 Major Support1H Chart Silver 1H Chart, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the hesitation also spreading to the shorter timeframes, traders could await for either:A break below the mini-support $84.50 to play a breakdown to $80Ongoing selling should take the action there soon!A break above the daily $87.50 to play a breakout to $92Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin is in a "transition phase," consolidating below $70,000 after retreating from $71,000, however the recovery lacks the "ingredients of a decisive bullish turn".Despite accelerating institutional inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the average ETF holder is currently "underwater" (negative MVRV ratio), interpreted as "capitulation-like conditions" for recent institutional entrants.On-chain network activity shows large-scale capital moving, but engagement metrics for the broader retail network, such as active addresses and transaction fees, remain quiet.For a sustained bullish expansion, Bitcoin must decisively reclaim the primary overhead resistance at the True Market Mean ($79000)Most Read: US Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsBitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a classic transition phase as it navigates between macroeconomic pressure and resilient technical demand. After a brief surge toward the $71,000 mark, the premier cryptocurrency has retreated to consolidate just below the psychologically significant $70,000 level. Source: TradingView Bitcoin is down around 4.58% this week with red being the dominant color on the crypto heatmap. It shouldn't be a surprise as the general market feeling is still one of unease as haven demand remains strong. The US dollar has benefitted from this which adds further headwinds for Bitcoins recovery.What does the on-chain data tell us? According to on-chain data an analysis from Glassnode, Bitcoins price remains bounded between two critical valuation anchors: the Realized Price (~$54.9k), which acts as a long-term support floor, and the True Market Mean (~$79k), which currently serves as the primary overhead resistance.While the market has managed to break back above the psychologically significant $70,000 barrier, Glassnode warns that the recovery lacks the "ingredients of a decisive bullish turn." Instead, the environment is defined by improving internals at the margins, while broader conviction and capital flows remain soft.This is reflected by the swift drop after Bitcoin reclaimed the $70000 handle.Spot demand and ETF dynamics One of the most constructive signals is the activity within the US Spot Bitcoin ETF complex. Net inflows have accelerated, rising from $776 million to $934 million weekly, alongside a significant jump in trading volume. However, this institutional demand carries a nuanced signal.The ETF MVRV ratio recently dropped into negative territory, meaning the average ETF holder is currently "underwater" on their position. Glassnode interprets this as "capitulation-like conditions" for recent institutional entrants, suggesting that while they are continuing to buy, they are doing so under considerable price stress.In the broader spot market, demand is showing early signs of recovery, but it remains structurally weak. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a measure of net buying vs. selling pressure, showed a rebound as buyers began to absorb sell-side liquidity.Despite this, the lack of aggressive "follow-through" indicates that many participants are still waiting for clearer directional cues before committing significant capital. Source: Glassnode On-chain activity On-chain network activity presents a mixed picture. While transfer volume saw a healthy 23.7% increase, other engagement metrics like active addresses and transaction fees have slipped. This divergence suggests that while large-scale capital is moving (likely institutional or whale-tier transfers), the broader retail network remains quiet and disinterested.Derivatives: hedging vs. speculation The derivatives market reflects the general uncertainty of the spot market. Options traders have become notably less defensive; the volatility spread has narrowed, and the 25-delta skew has declined. This indicates that the "panic hedging" seen in previous weeks is fading, and traders are beginning to price in a more balanced near-term outlook.In the futures market, Open Interest has climbed, signaling a modest rebuild of leverage. However, the funding rates have turned sharply negative, falling below the statistical low band. This suggests a surge in demand for short exposure, highlighting that leveraged traders are far from reaching a bullish consensus.Technical Outlook: The path ahead Despite the retreat below $70,000, the technical outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than bearish.Long-term holders (whales) and institutional players appear to be "buying the dip."The formation of an accumulation cluster near the range midpoint is a positive sign, but its intensity is currently lower than the levels that preceded previous major bull runs, per Glassnode data.If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $72000 level, it would likely trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out). However such a move may prove temporary as the one we just had.For a sustained bullish expansion to occur, Bitcoin needs to decisively reclaim the True Market Mean ($79000) and see a return of "hot capital", speculative interest that has been notably absent.Until then, the market remains on "unsteady ground," showing the potential to bounce but lacking the aggregate demand required to break out of its defensive structure.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 11, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are sending mixed signals despite positive CPI reportTraders will await for further clues and news in order to move forwardExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The tone in Financial Markets has now eased despite the ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict, now in its 12th day – Stock Indexes are still failing to generate traction, currently victim of strengthening selling flows.The almost-perfect inverse correlation between Stock Markets and oil prices has now stalled, with Crude volatility also coming to a brutal halt.It is surprising to see Markets disregard the pretty positive CPI report (coming in at 2.4%, as expected), but this points to a new dynamic: Current progress in inflation won't help if inflation expectations, rising from higher Oil prices, remain high.This further emphasizes Surveys like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (released Friday at 10:00 A.M.) and the NY Fed's Inflation Expectation Survey.Rate cut pricing will also be particularly tied to the Core PCE numbers (next release also on Friday, 8:30 A.M.), the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge.As noted in our fresh Oil analysis, the commodity is pointing to a more rangebound price action ahead – but any significant breakout, even if it is slow and persistent, will dampen risk appetite until a clear resolution of the conflict.Still, the past few sessions of rebounds have helped US benchmarks recover into their higher time-frame ranges – Keep a close eye on immediate action as sentiment takes a turn lower by the minute.Keep in mind that an ongoing trend is developing around Financials, particularly Private Asset Managers, which are seeing waves of liquidations and a much tighter lending Market – This damaged risk-sentiment a few Fridays ago and could have a much wider impact if this spreads further. Let's spot where today's hesitant price action is implying by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Oil surges again to $86 as Iran attacks ships in Hormuz – Intraday AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsMarkets Today: IEA eyes record breaking oil reserve release as US CPI looms. FTSE 100 falls at 200-day MACurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:29 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 11, 2026 The current Market picture is quite mixed, with many sectors and key names unchanged while some others are bleeding, like Financials, Retail Trade and Consumer Non-Durables.On the other hand, US Fertilizers, Consumer Durables, Energy stocks and Transportation are rebounding – The Green Sheep out of them all however really is Oracle, flying higher by 10% since its past day wonderful earnings report.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is now struggling after rejecting the upper bound of its descending channel.Reactions to its lower bound will be very key (see on chart) – As prices are reaching the Major 47,000 - 47,200 Support again, a failure to rebound from here would hurt bull prospects even further.Expect a more bearish price action ahead in that event.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsFriday Pivot 47,500 to 47,650 (50-Hour MA 47,619)Pivotal Resistance at 48,000 (Past day highs)48,400 key level to break for continued reboundNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsKey Support 47,000 to 47,200Monday futures drop Mini-Support 46,30046,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now rejecting the 25,000 which provides some bearish signs for upcoming action.Now crossing below the its 50-Hour MA (24,930), accompanied by an intraday double top, it would not be surprising to see a quick test of the 24,500 Support area.Failing to rebound there would lead to the 24,000 Support.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels50-Hour MA 24,928Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (Monday drop)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now turning bearish after yesterday's top rejection, particularly with the latest hour of profit-taking – The RSI is now crossing below the neutral line.Breaking the 6,730 should see continuation to the downside. If 6,700 breaks, expect to see a quick test of the Monday lows (6,579).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,770 to 6,800 Momentum PivotPast Day Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (2H 200-MA)Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support LevelsMini-Support 6,730 to 6,750 (immediate test, bearish if break!)6,680 to 6,700 Key SupportMonday lows 6,5796,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil volatility consolidates but after yesterday's drop, sellers could not sustain lower pricesWTI attempted a bounce, which points to further range-bound action aheadExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Yesterday saw a major correction in crude prices, particularly given that it had traded near $120 just two days ago – But it could be reaching its end.As noted in our past-day Oil analysis, it seems we are now past the largest waves of volatility, with 30% up-and-down moves often translating into much calmer price action afterward. The same happened in Silver at the end of January.Volatility tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it quickly exhausts itself! And when it does, Markets seem pretty dull.It's a weird feeling when even today's 2% move higher feels like nothing really changed.After dipping to $76 in early afternoon yesterday, following verbal intervention from G7 nations, the commodity quickly bounced back to higher levels as Iran upped their threats:After the latest mines in Hormuz intel, Iran struck three ships that attempted to cross the Strait – The headlines led to a quick bounce towards $87 before the price action eased again.This Reuters piece provides great detail into the current situation – It should be free to access.Despite the ceaseless air strikes and damage to its navy, Iran manages to ship millions of barrels of crude to China, which would explain the growing number of cargoes going through, while Gulf shipments remain in peril. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic – Source: MacroBond In other Market news, US CPI just came at 2.4% Y/Y, a better report compared to last month's rise. Traders will be focusing on this month's Core PCE (the Fed's favorite measure) release to see if the ease spreads towards there.The next FOMC meeting is already coming up next week, and a cut is only priced at 0.7%(!) – Participants will focus on forward communications.Let's dive right into the key intraday charts for WTI (US) Oil to spot where we stand and what comes next for the commodity. Read More:Markets Today: IEA eyes record breaking oil reserve release as US CPI looms. FTSE 100 falls at 200-day MAUS Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsChart alert: EUR/USD bullish reversal, watch the 1.1673 upside trigger level as US CPI loomsUS Oil Intraday Time-frame AnalysisWTI 4H Chart WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 11, 2026. Source: TradingView The price action has been largely dying off within a still large $83 to $88 range.Despite the progress in the military conflict, as long as the war continues, there aren't many fundamental reasons for Oil to drag lower. It wouldn't be surprising to see the current consolidation holding for a longer time.The longer the war lasts, the higher the chances of a slow grind higher, so keep that in mind if you spot a progressive uptrend forming again.Let's look at further details.WTI 1H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 11, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking closer, we see how clear the current range is – most candles are stabilizing within the consolidation highs (~$88) and lows (~$83).Both directions could be played but it is wise to remind that any flash news could lead to sudden spikes – It feels like downward spikes are more probable after recent higher rejection (on any advancement/peace news)Key levels are bolded.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels4H 50-Period MA $88.00$89 to $91 Channel and Range highs (Bullish above)Resistance $93.50 to $95$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$82.80 to $84 Range lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past session lows $76.50Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main SupportSeptember 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $682025 lows $55.00WTI 15M Chart WTI Oil 15M Chart – March 11, 2026. Source: TradingView For intraday traders, keep a close eye on the range extremes and 15M 50 & 200-period Moving Averages (acting as intraday support and resistance respectively)With prices bouncing from the range lows, check out if sellers come back at the resistance to attempt small mean reversion attempts.Do keep a close eye on a potential slow but progressive grind higher as days go by without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz! For this, spot a clear higher low on the 1H timeframe. This isn't the case yet. Safe Trades, keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bullish technical breakout: The AUD/USD has finally broken above the 0.7140 major resistance—a level tested multiple times since 2022—reaching a 52-week high near 0.7185, signalling the start of a fresh bullish impulsive uptrend.Macro catalysts supporting AUD: Strength in commodity prices driven by the US–Iran war 2026 and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates to 4.10% have boosted demand for the Australian dollar.Key levels to watch: Near-term bullish momentum remains intact above 0.7080 support, with upside targets at 0.7246–0.7266 and 0.7335–0.7350. A break below 0.7080 would weaken the bullish outlook and risk a pullback toward 0.7050–0.7030. The price actions of the AUD/USD have finally staged a bullish breakout above its “stubborn” major resistance at 0.7140 (11 August 2022/2 August 2023 swing highs) after it tested twice in February 2026.The AUD/USD has extended its gains by 0.8% in today’s Asia session (Wednesday, 11 March 2026) to record a new year-to-date and 52-week intra-session high at 0.7185.The firmer AUD/USD has been supported by the ongoing bullish trend in commodity prices due to global oil supply disruption arising from the ongoing US-Iran war.Secondly, the short-term interest rate market in Australia is expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its tightening monetary policy stance with an increased probability of its second interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to come as soon on the next meeting on 17 March 2026 to raise the cash policy rate to 4.10% to negate inflationary expectations from jumping higher due to firmer oil prices.AU/US implied future policy interest rate curves spread supports a hawkish RBA Fig. 1: AU/US monthly implied future policy interest rate curves spread as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The spread/differential between the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for Australia and the US (derived from short-term interest rate futures) has risen steadily and shifted upwards (see Fig. 1).The spread for April 2026 now stands at 0.42%, an increase of 13 bps from 0.29% recorded three months ago, and the spread for May 2026 increases to 0.54%, a similar increase of 13 bps from 0.41% three months ago.Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD – Bullish momentum supports a fresh impulsive up move sequence Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Today’s bullish breakout above the 0.7140 major resistance suggests that the AUD/USD has exited from a 4-week choppy range configuration in place since 12 February 2026, in turn, igniting a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term and major uptrend phases.In the near-term, watch the 0.7080 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the minor bullish impulsive up move sequence view for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7246/7266 and 0.7335/7350 (See Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below 0.7080 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 0.7050/7030 (the pull-back support of the former minor descending channel resistance from 27 February 2026 high). Below 0.7030 exposes further near-term weakness towards 0.6944 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on AUD/USD The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline, which suggests that short-term bullish momentum remains intact within its minor uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).The daily 2-year Australian sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen to 0.85% from 0.75% a week ago, in turn, supporting the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks formed a decent bottom after a rough 10-day stretchWith the ongoing rebound still timid, we attempt to spot if the rebound will pursueExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The tone in markets has eased significantly after yesterday's extreme price action Oil.As explored in our past week's analysis, Global Equities (and from its looks, the entire Market) have strictly followed an inverse correlation with WTI prices. Dow Jones and Oil Relative Performance since Beginning March – Source: TradingView After breaking significant Support levels, the commodity's price correction has largely eased off the pressure seen in Global assets.Indeed, rising Oil prices have impacts on virtually all sectors of production, and with Stagflation fears following closely, its prior uptrend has been hurting rate-cut prospects – and even worse fears.Despite the ongoing correction in WTI prices, there is potential for it to rise again. As long as Crude doesn't regain its Sunday night spikes, a large Market panic should be avoided, but any prolonged rebound would require an actual resolving of the conflict.The Strait of Hormuz de facto closure remains the key inflexion point; hence, traders will have to keep track of Oil movement to get better clues on Sentiment.Any rebound in the energy commodity will dampen bullish prospects! Let's spot where the ongoing rebound could take the action by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:WTI (Oil) forms a tight range after Trump's comments – Oil Dynamics and Intraday AnalysisChart alert: Hang Seng Index recovered at 24,765, bulls need to break above 26,350Is the Petrodollar trade over after Trump's comment? EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:42 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 10, 2026 The current session's heatmap is looking much better than the previous. Nevertheless, ongoing rebounds are quite timid and local.Tech services, which had outperformed during the overall panic, is now seeing large profit-taking, leaving the spot back to producer manufacturing and industrials.Electronics however are seeing a decent price action from the relative ease in delivery expectations. Watch out for sentiment as the current rebound resembles more like bearish relief rather than a proper bull-case.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA has rebounded swiftly back into its longer-run range (47,000 to 50,000), but even with bulls winning the current battle, they will have to show further resilience.The 48,000 Pivotal resistance is seeing immediate test, and with Oil prices forming a short-term bottom, Stock market resilience will have to be tracked closely. Watch out for the RSI Momentum top!Breaking 48,400 would assist the bullish case further.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPivotal Resistance at 48,000 (immediate test)48,400 key level to break for continued reboundNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsFriday Pivot 47,500 to 47,650 (short-term support, Bearish below!)Key Support 47,000 to 47,200Monday futures drop Mini-Support 46,30046,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has seen a similar strong rebound towards its key 25,000 to 25,200 resistance zone.Bulls will be facing a key test ahead, as the RSI momentum forms a double top:Failing to break 25,200 could bring back a more bearish-range price action.Breaking above the level however would help to regain at least 25,500 and break the bearish formation.Keep a close eye on WTI prices as any rise there could lead to a break lower (24,500 is the next key Support).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (Monday drop)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is seeing similar conditions, with bulls managing to regain the higher timeframe range (6,700 to 7,000).Nevertheless, to regain hopes for all-time highs, prices will have to break the Imminent resistance zone from 6,820 to 6,840.Rejecting current levels would point to a test of 6,700Such bearish regain would confirm on a break and 1H close below 6,800.Breaking above the 2H 200-MA helps bullish prospectsA rebound to all-time highs would confirm on a daily close above 6,900S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (2H 200-MA)Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support Levels6,770 to 6,800 Momentum PivotMini-Support 6,730 to 6,7506,680 to 6,700 Key Support Overnight lows 6,5796,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil just concluded a historic session yesterday, with 30% moves up and down in a crazy rollercoasterWTI is the subject of global fears, as real-economy supply shocks get priced further, but prices are stabilizingExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodityYesterday's historic session in Oil Once again, Black Gold found itself in the middle of chaotic price action, with yesterday's session breaking records across all types of volatility.The Globex open saw an 11% gap (from $92 to $103) that quickly turned into a 30% squeeze towards $120 – That lasted from 18:00 on Sunday to 22:00. Shortly after, G7 Leaders united to prepare for the potential release of Strategic Reserves, which aimed to calm Markets significantly and worked well, bringing commodity prices back to their weekly opening levels. Shortly after, G7 Leaders united to prepare for the potential release of Strategic Reserves, which aimed to calm Markets significantly and worked well, bringing commodity prices back to their weekly opening levels. The Reserves will not be released just yet, but the comments helped soothe the overall panic.President Trump added more fuel to the volatility fire by saying during a private ABC interview that the war could be resolved "very soon". The issue with this comment is that it was quickly taken out of context and led to a $12 drop in WTI prices, but erased some of this progress overnight. WTI Oil 5M Chart from March 9, 2026. Source: TradingView So what's the update? Unfortunately, despite Trump's optimistic comments in yesterday's late afternoon, the War won't conclude so easily.The President's advisors have urged him to prepare a concrete exit plan – while military progress has been advancing well, there are still clouds over the proper way to achieve lasting peace or even the desired regime change.The anxiety will remain if no clear plan is made, with attacks on civilian infrastructures all over the Middle East continuing. After 11 days of conflict, it may be too early to assume the counterattacks will continue indefinitely, but some clarity would be very welcome.The Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure, with some thin traffic through, but this pales in comparison to usual flows as drone and ballistic missile threats remain elevated. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic since February 27 – Source: Bloomberg To respond to the large drops in maritime shipments, Saudi Aramco signalled that they were ramping up Oil flows in the East-West pipeline to full capacity and they are slowly getting there.However, this would only add to 7M barrels/day which doesn't come close to the usual 20M bbl/day going through Hormuz in normal activity – The world's largest energy-commodity production firm mentioned some 180M barrels of Oil getting affected by the ongoing conflict.Furthermore, the IRGC makes sure to not only strike civilian infrastructures but also Oil and Natural Gas production facilities.With volatility now largely slowing down, let's explore a few key charts and scenarios for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for potential breakout levels. Read More:The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?Is the Petrodollar trade over after Trump's comment? EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewOil gaps lower to $83 after a wild session! Trump – "The War could be over soon"US Oil Intraday Time-frame AnalysisWTI 4H Chart WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now returning within its past week's upward channel, having largely cut off its squeeze-momentum.This implies that the largest volatility spikes are now behind us.Even with the 4H timeframe RSI falling, there is still a decent probability that Oil will grind higher towards $100, particularly if the conflict drags on further – For now, momentum remains more neutral than anything.Let's look at further details.WTI 2H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 2H Chart – March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Due to its recent volatility, WTI has established many Support and Resistance levels and they require flexibility as they have been changing by the minute. The key levels are bolded. To check out different trading scenarios, I invite you to check out the 30M chart just below.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$89 to $91 Channel and potential range highsApril 2024 Top Major Momentum Pivot $86.50 to $88.00Resistance $93.50 to $95 (Bullish above!)$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$82.80 to $84 Daily Support and channel lows (immediate test)2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main SupportSeptember 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $682025 lows $55.00WTI 30M Chart WTI Oil 30M Chart – March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now well within its ascending channel, hence this provides essential trading levels to keep in check:Coming at the lows of the channel, selling exhaustion could point to a short-term rebound towards $90 – look at the 30M 50-period MAA range between $82 to $90 could well be taking place, so look at whether the move remains contained.Breaking the daily support ($82.80) and Channel would point to a test of the $76 SupportAny break above $90 with high momentum and volume would imply a test of $95; $100 could then get reached fast depending on the news. Safe Trades, a restful weekend, and keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (09/03/2026): To start the week, we join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing skyrocketing oil pricing amidst tensions in the Middle East and a scheduled G7 meeting to discuss the release of held crude reserves, as well as the fallout across financial markets. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks have significantly gapped lower from weekend angst but are attempting a reboundParticipants are now pricing a prolonged US-Israel-Iran war and more disruptive effects from the conflict.Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The US-Iran-Israel war is into its second week, and bombardments all over the Middle East are continuing ceaselessly, despite marked progress in the number of drones and ballistic missiles launched by Iran.Numerous neighboring countries have now seen a faster pace of retaliation, including Azerbaijan and Turkey. Iran is escalating its responses against Gulf countries, multiplying attacks on Oil facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, which has brought a historic move in the commodity.Black Gold gapped from $92 to $103 at the Globex open and quickly bounced toward $120 as thin volume and heavy buying inflows triggered a fresh squeeze. WTI (US) Oil 4H Chart. March 9, 2026 (11:24 A.M.) – Source: TradingView The overnight spike to 4-year highs came with significant angst, as global assets sagged from continued stagflation pricing, with safe-haven assets like Gold and US Treasuries also taking significant hits. S&P 500 futures were down 165 points at one point, the largest drop since October 2025 – and this is not such a common move!Luckily, the Market-shaking rise did not extend further. Oil is now down 19% from its highs! (but remains about 5% above its Friday close)The reversal brought a flurry of dip-buying across all assets, which initially suffered from the futures session's movements. US Equities are now looking to fill their wide overnight gaps in an impressive rebound.However, some doubts remain: Stagflation fears could get extended as long as Oil remains above $85 per barrel; as the War extends and is now projected to last about five more weeks, the prolonged expectations add to further concerns of a more.Iran hasn't shown signs of de-escalation, having also named Ali Khamenei's successor, his son Mojtaba Khamenei. The US and Israel also won't stop until "unconditional surrender", hence, tracking their progress against IRGC targets is key to attempting to time a resolution to the conflict.The Strait of Hormuz de facto closure remains the key inflexion point, so traders should watch its traffic (or lack thereof) closely. Let's spot where the ongoing rebound could take the action by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Markets Today: Brent crude futures surge 14%, STOXX 600 hits two-month lows as FTSE 100 approaches 10000 psychological levelChart alert: WTI crude oil key short-term support at $102.25 for another 20% rallyMarkets Weekly Outlook - Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 oil warning and the rate cut dilemmaCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:48 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 9, 2026 The current sessions' Market picture is not an easy one to understand – The largest cap stocks are all broadly unchanged in today's session, resisting the overnight chaotic drop.Traditional and Defensive equities are the largest victims of the drops however, with none of such sectors withstanding the pressure except for a few Healthcare and Producer Manufacturing names.Broadcom is on the other hand pulling the semiconductors sector to a bullish tilt, with Tech in general marking its own rebound since the beginning of the War, as such sectors tend to get less impacted by rising energy prices and supply shocks.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones saw a spectacular move in the past few trading sessions, notably breaking the significant 47,000 Support level during thin-volume futures trading.Attempting a rally back above the Psychological level, a very symbolic test will now be playing out and affecting the upcoming outlook for the Stock Market:Retesting the 47,000 Support, bulls will want to extend above 47,200 to add hopes of a further reboundImminent trading is to be monitored as the Friday lows gap has now been filledExtending a rebound above 47,300 will be necessary to confirm a more decisive rebound.Rejecting current levels could easily open the door towards 46,000.Any break of this key level would point to August highs 45,715.Below this, there is no support until January ATH at 45,283Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels47,300 Friday closeFriday Pivot 47,500 to 47,650 (bullish above)Pivotal Resistance at 48,000November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highsIndex All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsKey Support 47,000 to 47,200 (testing – Bearish below!!!)Overnight futures drop Mini-Support 46,30046,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView I hope that some traders were able to catch the Tweezer top bearish formation signal from Friday's analysis!For those who did not, an interesting level is imminently getting reached;Despite the large bull candle from this morning, Nasdaq is facing a pivotal resistance at current levels with the overnight Gap fill reached (24,643).This provides a decent setup for short-entries, with the setup invalidated above the 4H 50-period MA at 24,850.For those who prefer a tighter stop, look at the Mini-intraday Pivot around 24,750200 point stops are relatively large, hence, manage size accordingly.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsGap fill – Imminent resistance 24,643Mini-intraday Pivot 24,7504H 50-period MA 24,850Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceSupport LevelsOctober and Overnight lows 23,97224,400 to 25,600 Key SupportFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,300October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has officially broken its double bottom throughout the overnight trading and as warned on Friday, it marked a bearish break lower to test the 6,579 lows.Also coming back to test its Friday lows gap fill (6,710), reactions here will be very key:Rejecting the current level would point to further downside aheadA first stop could be expected at the overnight lowsBreaking below opens the door to 6,500 – October lowsAny close above 6,750 would invalidate the bearish setup.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,710 Imminent Gap fillBull/Bear Momentum Pivot 6,730 to 6,7506,770 to 6,800 Major Resistance Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Minor Support (Gap fill! – bearish below)Overnight lows 6,5796,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are under pressure, caught between safe-haven demand (bulls) from escalating Middle East tensions and the "higher rates for longer" narrative (bears) driven by a strong US Dollar and inflation fears.The weekend's oil storage strikes in Iran pushed oil over $100/barrel, increasing inflation concerns.The G-7 is considering releasing oil reserves, a move that could temporarily ease oil prices, potentially softening the hawkish rate view and aiding Gold.Technically, Gold is consolidating, with a breakout on either side of the $5193/$5038 range needed for a clear direction.Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 oil warning and the rate cut dilemmaThe price of gold is down around 1.6% on the day as the precious metal faces a tug of war between bears and bulls.The safe haven demand many have been expecting has been somewhat overshadowed by the idea of higher rates for longer which has contributed to a stronger US dollar. At this stage neither bulls nor bears have been able to seize control, however the longer the status quo in the Middle East remains as is, the case for bears will grow stronger.Middle East developments The situation in Iran escalated over the weekend with strikes on Tehran which focused on Oil storage facilities. The strikes raised concerns around energy supply and its impact on global inflation.This prompted a strong risk-off sentiment environment with Oil prices soaring over $100/barrel and Gold peaking overnight at $5192/oz. Since then, Gold has fallen to an intraday low of $5014/oz as markets continue to price in less rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.According to the latest LSEG data, markets are now only pricing in around 37 bps of rate cuts in 2026. This is down from around 66 bps prior to the spike in oil prices. Source: LSEG This hawkish narrative is impacting Gold prices at the moment while profit taking after last night's surge may have also played some role in the selloff.Another development over the weekend was the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader. The development is seen by many political analysts as a sign that any hope of a swift conclusion to the conflict is rather slim at this stage.While tensions may remain high in the Middle East which will feed haven demand, it will also likely keep oil prices elevated and thus lead to a hawkish narrative around rates. This will keep the tug of war between bulls and bears firmly in place and may see Gold remain volatile but in a tighter range in the upcoming trading sessions.G-7 to release oil reserves There has been growing chatter throughout the day that the G-7 may release oil reserves to help shore up supply concerns and could aid prices. Initially comments were made by Japan Finance Minister Katayama who said that the IEA urged G-7 nations to release oil stockpiles.This was followed by comments from IEA Director Birol, who stated that IEA members hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks. The G-7 Finance Minister's statement confirmed that possible measures include an oil stockpile release after discussing the situation in the Middle East.According to the statement, G7 Energy Ministers are to hold a teleconference on Tuesday, and G7 leaders later this week with a final decision on whether to release oil reserves more likely to be taken by G7 leaders.Such a move could lead to a temporary drop in oil prices which in turn could aid Gold as it may see inflation fears ease, even if it is temporary.Where to next? Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, looking at the H1 chart for Gold and as you can see price has been caught in a period of consolidation.Given the overarching fundamental and geopolitical risks, it might be better to look at shorter-term moves until the bigger picture becomes clearer.A 1 hour candle close on either side of the red block could lead to a breakout in that direction. If no breakout materializes, price could continue to coil within the range.On the upside of the range we have the $5193 level while the downside of the range comes in around the $5038 handle. .The period-14 RSI is eyeing a break back above the 50-neutral level on the H1 chart which would hint at a potential shift toward more bullish momentum.However, as has been the case for the majority of the day, any attempt to push prices higher by bulls has been met by swift selling pressure. A tug of war if you will.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, March 9, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review Escalating Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude to $90 a barrel, raising fears of oil hitting $150.A surprising contraction in the US labor market (unexpected job losses in February and unemployment at 4.4%) has increased the chance of a June or July interest rate cut by the Fed.US markets show more resilience, supported by the tech sector and net oil exporter status, while Europe faces a potential "stagflationary shock" due to its vulnerability to energy price spikesThe week ahead is dominated by geopolitics, but major economic releases include US CPI and Core PCE for insights into inflation's "stickiness," and a significant upward revision expected for Japan's Q4 2025 GDP.Read More: Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comebackWall Street’s primary indexes tumbled on Friday, led by a sharp decline in the Dow to a three-month low as the market grappled with escalating conflict in the Middle East and a surprising contraction in the US labor market.Data revealed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February,exacerbated by healthcare strikes and severe winter weather pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%.This combination of geopolitical tension and economic cooling has shifted market expectations; traders have now priced in a roughly 50% chance of a June interest rate cut, while some analysts suggest the Fed’s dual mandate to balance inflation and employment could pull the first cut forward to July. The volatility is being fueled by a dramatic spike in energy prices, with Brent crude hitting $90 a barrel following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As shipping halts and analysts warn that oil could reach $150 a barrel if Gulf exports are fully suspended, airline stocks have plummeted nearly 13% this week.Qatar’s recent warnings regarding prolonged delivery delays for natural gas have only added to the "stagflation" fears, a situation where growth slows while prices rise.Despite the downturn, US markets have shown more resilience than their global counterparts, buoyed by a strong tech sector and the nation's status as a net oil exporter.In contrast, European markets suffered their worst week in nearly a year, with the STOXX 600 hitting a two-month low. Because Europe is more vulnerable to energy price shocks, major exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and Madrid recorded historic weekly losses as investors braced for a potential stagflationary environment across the continent.Gold prices edged higher on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East sparked a wave of safe-haven buying.Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,090.16 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.4% to $5,099.50. Despite these daily gains, the metal remained on track for a 3.5% weekly decline, effectively snapping a four-week winning streak.This downward pressure stemmed from persistent inflation worries and a volatile dollar, both of which have dampened investor expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. Source: LSEG The broader commodities market showed a stark contrast, as crude oil prices surged toward their most significant weekly gain since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Spot WTI oil was up around 34% at the time of writing.While gold benefited slightly from its status as a refuge during geopolitical instability, the reality of "higher-for-longer" interest rates continues to weigh on bullion's appeal compared to yield-bearing assets.The Week Ahead Global markets enter the second week of March 2026 under the shadow of a rapidly escalating Middle East conflict. With a US-led campaign against Iran entering its second week and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, the "2022 Energy Shock" is no longer just a historical reference, it is the primary lens through which investors are viewing the week ahead.The Macro Theme: Geopolitics Overpowers FundamentalsWhile the economic calendar is packed with heavy hitters like US CPI and UK GDP, their influence may be dampened by the "high-risk zone" of current geopolitics.Energy Prices as the Barometer: Brent crude has already surged toward $85/bbl. Analysts warn that a breach of $100/bbl would be a "psychological milestone" that could trigger a deeper sell-off in risk assets.2022 vs. 2026: There does appear to be a critical difference from the 2022 shock: the labor market is now much cooler. Unlike 2022, when workers could chase higher pay to offset energy costs, the current cooling trend (highlighted by a weak February US jobs report) means consumers have less of a buffer.United States: The Inflation-Rate Cut Tug-of-WarThe spotlight is firmly on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Wednesday and Core PCE on Friday.The Dilemma: Markets are looking for signs of how "sticky" inflation remains before the full impact of the current energy spike is even recorded. A surprise upside in CPI would likely force markets to price out the two Fed rate cuts currently expected for 2026.Consumer Sentiment: Friday’s University of Michigan survey will be the first real-time look at how the "energy shock" and tariff fears are sapping household confidence.Asia: China’s "Two Sessions" and Japan’s GDP RevisionAsia remains at the forefront of the supply chain disruption, with a specific focus on the closing of China’s National People’s Congress.China (Monday/Tuesday): February CPI and PPI data will be released. Analysts expect a bounce in CPI to ~1.0% due to Lunar New Year spending, though this may be viewed as a "noise" rather than a trend. Trade data (Tuesday) will be scrutinized for the resilience of external demand.Japan (Tuesday): Expect a significant upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP (from 0.1% to 0.3% QoQ) following strong capital spending and winter bonuses. This could keep the Bank of Japan on its path toward normalization despite global turmoil.Europe & UK: Looking for Signs of LifeThe Eurozone is navigating a "stagflationary shock" where energy deficits punish the Euro, though narrowing interest rate differentials against the USD are providing some support.Germany (Monday/Wednesday): Industrial Production and final Inflation data will show if the "fledgling recovery" in manufacturing can withstand the new energy spike.United Kingdom (Friday): Monthly GDP and industrial output for January will be released. Markets are looking for a pickup in growth to confirm the encouraging signals seen in recent PMI surveys. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the week - WTI Oil From a technical standpoint, WTI has just posted a massive bullish engulfing candle which has completely invalidated the previous multi-year downtrend, thrusting WTI from the mid-$60s to over $90.00 in a matter of days. The move as is largely the case was driven by the geopolitical and fundamental dynamics around Oil prices. However, it is important to note that were thechnical signs that Oil was in a consolidation phase with a breakout growing ever-more likley.Nobody however envisioned a 30% + price spike in the space of a week.Where does price go to from here?This will of course depend on the course the war in the Middle East takes.Further refinery attacks by Iran or any escalation on that front and we could open the new week already above the $100/barrel mark.Alternatively, if tensions do begin to ease, Oil prices may fall quite quickly.The price is currently testing the $90.05 level. If the momentum continues, the next major psychological and technical targets are $93.96 and the multi-year high at $100.00.In the event of a "cool-off," the previous resistance at $80.19 and the 200-day SMA ($75.41) now serve as the primary floor.There is a significant liquidity gap between $70 and $85. In normal market conditions, these gaps tend to fill, but in "war-premium" markets, they can remain open for weeks.WTI Oil Weekly Chart, March 6, 2026 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning is sending a nasty look for Markets, as Oil continues to explode higher amid Middle East tensions. At the same time, US labor data keeps showing volatility, this time to the downside.It is a dark day for risk assets, and the fundamentals aren't going to help – particularly with a miss in Retail Sales rubbing salt in the wound, it seems that prior bounces in US data could have been a seasonal effect of Holidays/New Year hiring and consumption. We could now be facing a hangover. Morning US Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Non-Farm Payrolls just released at -92K vs +56K expected, a significant (-148K) miss!Such a reversal in the data can't fail to raise questions about actual job displacement from new AI technologies and whether the Federal Reserve is really getting behind the curve.The issue for the Central Bank is that inflation is certainly bouncing higher despite lower Retail Sales – so combine a weaker jobs Market, consumption, and elevated inflation, and conclusions about stagflation could be reached quickly – and with decent reasoning, too!With Energy prices shooting higher throughout the week, it is certain that inflation expectations are not going to ease anytime soon – the only thing that could soothe them at this point is an actual pricing of slower consumption ahead, but that wouldn't fare well for the US economy.Goods-producing, Private Education, and Services took the largest hit, with gains only seen in Financials and Wholesale Trades. You can get access to the Non-Farm Payrolls report for February right here.We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend. Discover:Markets Today: Rate cut hopes wither as Nikkei and Kospi suffer steep weekly losses. NFP data up nextChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comebackThe Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?A Nasty Market Picture Stock and Energy Product Futures – Courtesy of Finviz There goes risk-appetite, as a close to 10% rise in daily WTI prices will keep raising inflation expectations and that tends to coincide with major repricings in Equity marketsAn in-depth Stock Market coming at the top of the morning.Cryptos Are Not Getting Spared Bitcoin 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are not sustaining the dampening Market mood.Even Bonds, which could have thought to rebound in such a miss in Non-Farm Payrolls, are actually met with high pressure from the rise in Oil (and rising Inflation Expectations).Only Metals Are Sustaining the Pressure Gold 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Only Gold and Silver are rebounding, albeit a timid rebound for now – A Double bottom in Gold will be helping its prospects on the intraday.Nonetheless, a larger picture double top could still have its effect, so Bulls will have to show real strength, volume and conviction!WTI (US) Oil Wicks at $90, Explodes to October 2023 Highs! WTI Daily Chart – March 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The last time we saw the $90 handle in WTI was in late 2023 – A scary picture, particularly considering that Oil was trading at $55 just about two months ago!!The Commodity has now risen 30% since the beginning of the week and despite some slight easing, the squeeze doesn't seem to be stalling.A more detailed analysis for Oil is coming up in the afternoon. For now, keep track on if the action remains above $86.If it closes here, pressure will remain high.Correcting below should point to a slight correction ($80 would be the next step).Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian Dollar had been a victim of a rough stretch since the beginning of Trump's second term.Isolated by its historic neighbor amid US First policies, the Canadian Economy had been taking a sustained hit, leading to an accelerated cooling. The Land of Maple Syrup is known to be highly cyclical. Structurally, it tends to be dependent on commodity prices, global trade, and particularly on the US, which harshly pumped the brakes. Canadian GDP Growth since end 2020 – Courtesy of Trading Economics This phenomenon got accelerated by the historic Canadian mortgage structure: Variable loans are particularly affected when rates rise, compared to the typical 30-year fixed rates offered in the US.Hence, after the 2 years of ultra-low rates during COVID policies, the Bank of Canada hikes sent the hypersonic economy into a rock-hard wall.Add to this a general productivity restructuring, as massive waves of immigration saw another brutal stop; business confidence and investment stalled suddenly over the past few years – this shows up particularly in GDP per capita in Canada, which has remained broadly unchanged since 2012. Canadian GDP per Capita since 1985 – Courtesy of Macro Micro But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After years of questioning within Canada's natural Liberal party, Justin Trudeau stepped aside for Mark Carney, who has since cast doubt on some political issues.Since his ascension to power in March 2025, Carney and his party have brought three Conservatives into their ranks. Conservatives are going through their own crisis with internal trouble and separatist causes in Alberta. The Liberal Party is now three seats away from a majority in the House of Commons.But that's just politics. Even if the Canadian economy remains deeply strained from the latest rounds of US Policies, Carney has begun a new wave of international trade deals with India, China, and Europe – The rise of the "Middle power". Canada's manoeuvre options were thin, with the trilateral USMCA deal in limbo, but its capacities are slowly increasing.What is of traders' interest is how all of this relates to the Loonie. After reaching 16-year lows against the Euro, 22-year troughs against the USD, and a new nadir against the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar is forging a sharp turn, supported by higher petroleum and gold prices. Canadian Dollar and Oil Tight Correlation – Source: TradingView While its economy remains crippled by structural factors, Markets are forward-looking, and traders should do the same, so let's ask a simple question.Have we seen a long-term bottom in the Canadian Dollar? Let's dive into the weekly charts for USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, and EUR/CAD to see if we can get some clues from higher-timeframe technical analysis. Read More:Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?Markets Today: KOSPI surges 9.63% to lead Asian rally, Europe struggles, FTSE 100 eyes recoveryCanadian Dollar 3-Pair Weekly Timeframe AnalysisUSD/CAD Weekly Chart and Major Levels USD/CAD Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has now officially broken its 2021 long-term uptrend – But such rarely signify immediate U-turns.The Major North American pair is currently ranging between 1.35 and 1.38, stabilized by its 200-Week Moving Average (1.36378).The consolidation isn't looking to be break on the immediate outlook, but keep these two breakout zones in mind:Breaking and closing on the week below 1.35 would hint at further downside in the pair.Rebounding a closing above its 50-Week MA (1.3830) could lead to a retest of 1.40 (lower odds)Explore our shorter timeframe analysis for USD/CAD right here.USD/CAD Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:1.38 Major Daily Resistance & 50-Week MA (1.3830)2026 highs 1.39288November 2025 Peak 1.40 to 1.4150December 2024 Consolidation 1.44 to 1.45Support Levels:200-Week MA 1.363782025 lows Support 1.35 to 1.36 (bearish below)September 2024 lows 1.344201.32 to 1.33 July 2023 Next SupportCAD/CHF Weekly Chart and Major Levels CAD/CHF Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Canadian Dollar has lost more than 25% of its value against the CHF since 2022 – But this trend looks to be reverting.Contrarily to the more rangebound USD/CAD, momentum is taking a significant shift towards a rebounding trend after a weekly double-bottom and supported by a weekly bullish divergence.The 50-Week MA will be the upcoming target for bulls who are attempting to grab control – Closing above it may easily relaunch the pair towards 0.60.CAD/CHF Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:Major Momentum Pivot 0.57 to 0.58 (50-Week MA 0.58133)0.59 mini-resistanceNext Key Resistance 0.60 to 0.60502024 Base Resistance 0.62 to 0.62702024 Major Resistance 0.64 to 0.64750 (200-Week MA)Support Levels:All-Time Lows Support 0.560.56013 All-Time LowsNext Psychological Support 0.55EUR/CAD Weekly Chart and Major Levels EUR/CAD Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/CAD is also seeing a significant shift in its trend throughout this week's break lower.Now falling below its 50-Week Moving Average and crossing back below the significant 1.60 psychological level, sellers should remain in control all the way towards the 1.57 - 1.58 Major Support. Mean reversion there could assist a re-entry for further downside, particularly if prices retake the 1.59 level.Watch for selling acceleration on a weekly close below 1.57.EUR/CAD Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:2020 Resistance Zone – 1.59 to 1.6050-Week MA 1.6020Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.61 to 1.6150Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.63 to 1.6416-Year high 1.64703Support Levels:Upcoming support 1.57 to 1.58 ZoneMarch 2025 Support Zone 1.5475 to 1.55Pre-Breakout Support 1.5150 to 1.522024 Major Support 1.46 to 1.4750 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks absolutely smash previous days selling with huge rallies todaySince Trump's security pledge in the Middle East, Stocks have been explodingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Global Stock Indexes remain undefeated, and no war nor Capital Market trouble seems to be providing damage in their ever-resilient rise.No analyst or traders could have predicted such a resilient behavior from Investors amid the ongoing heavy War currently ongoing in the Middle East.US and Israeli armies are certainly striking rough blows to the Islamic regime's military capacities; Recent communication from both the US President and Secretary of War are reassuring Participants in the fact that the ongoing conflict has low probabilities of repeating mistakes seen in Iraq or Afghanistan: A prolonged and damaging war, without much to count for it.As expressed in our week-opening analysis, two of the most anxiety-prone elements in this war are how long it takes, and how heavy of an impact it has on Oil prices.For now, the length of the war is projected to be lasting around 4 to 5 weeks – this still has the potential to change, but current updates sound optimistic.On Oil, the commodity has somewhat stabilized in the $72 to $75 range (WTI). Yes, ships are scared to pass through Strait of Hormuz but the outlook isn't so grim right now with multiple reports of a damaged Iranian Navy.Any explosion in Oil prices or complication in operations has the potential to dampen mood significantly – Black Gold is certainly the most volatility-prone element of them both.Another element helping Equities is this morning's streak of positive US data, including a strong beat on US Services PMIs and ADP private employment. US Data this morning – MarketPulse Economic Calendar This also tags along with strong rebounds in Global Stock Indexes, also starkly rebounding today with the Nikkei closing up 2% and European Benchmarks up about the same.Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleCan Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:24 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 4, 2026 Defensive Blue Chips, traditionals and Energy Stocks are now seeing rejection as Wall Street turns a new rush towards Tech. High-beta semiconductors and softwares are marking a decent recovery in the past week and leading Equities in their resilient run – They could indeed sustain less damage from any effect from a prolonged war; Actually, they would mostly benefit from high information flows and military need for technologies!Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now breaking out of its descending channel but will face key hurdles at the 49,000 resistance zone and its 4H 50-period Moving Average just below (48,975).The morning rally is nothing short of impressive, but some profit-taking seems to be going through as traders look for quick-trades amid ongoing uncertainty – And that is certainly a way to protect trading accounts!Rejecting the 4H MA would mark a rough stall in the middle of the range, indicative of further potential downside ahead. Breaking back above however relaunches hopes for an all-time high run!Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA – 48,97549,000 to 49,250 Key psychological resistanceJanuary ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Morning SupportPsychological Pivot at 48,000August Support 47,500 to 47,65047,000 Next Main support45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is indeed flexing its muscles by rebounding back above the key 25,000 level and bulls are not letting the Index correct.Breaking the 200-period MA (25,170) would confirm the breakout and should hint at a swift run towards 25,500 – This stands as long as sentiment remains positive. Keep a close eye on the tech sector!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 200-period MA 25,170Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (testing)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceSupport LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)February Support 24,150 to 24,300 – Morning lowsOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 confirms its powerful range yet again, and will now face a strong test at the 6,900 Mid-Range resistance.Closing back above would point to a quick test of the 6,950 resistance.Rejecting it however could easily retest previous session's trough at 6,710.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,8406,770 to 6,800 Psychological SupportPrevious day lows 6,710February lows 6,710 to 6,7306,680 to 6,700 Next Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold bulls have long been waiting for geopolitical troubles to justify the metal's record prices.However, markets often play rough games with high expectations, as we recently saw with Nvidia and Microsoft earnings. This aligns with the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news."Similar profit-taking moves have previously occurred in silver, platinum, and palladium, so investors might have thought gold would be exempt, given its reputation as a true safe-haven.However, the recent unexpected market behavior in relation to geopolitical conflict is surprising. Despite ongoing tensions and heavy military activity in the Middle East, stocks actually rallied after Trump assured the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.Risk assets are decidedly rebounding, with cryptocurrencies surging to monthly highs as well as global Stock Markets; This proves how unusual these war flows have been.So, why are safe havens selling off?The US Department of Defense has certainly demonstrated its capabilities to rapidly damage key Iranian positions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.Investors fear a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, so the idea of shorter operations is providing a sense of relief, as reflected in the market.Investors also just received yet another report of US economic strength with another beat in Services PMI (56.1 vs 53.5 estimates), along with firming Private ADP Employment. Difficult to justify metal-boosting rate cuts with such solid data.Friday will provide more clarity on that aspect with the monthly NFP data for February; Expect this one to rock Market expectations again!Let’s conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of gold, as its recent price action has formed a double top. Will this signal the start of a real downtrend? Read More:Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Chart alert: Risk-off persists on Strait of Hormuz fears, EUR/CHF eyeing 0.9010 key bearish breakdown levelTrump guarantees maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz: Markets U-turn on Navy escort pledgeGold (XAU/USD) Multi-timeframe analysisWeekly Chart Gold Weekly Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is now facing high-importance hurdles ahead.After failing to regain its January $5,600 top despite the fundamental shift, sellers could now take the upper hand. This could particularly be the case when looking at the Weekly RSI forming a bearish divergence.However, a counter-argument could maintain demand for Gold – Remaining above its Key weekly pivot zone, particularly above $5,100, proves that the action can still remain in balance on the higher timeframe.Any break lower will also see streaks of support, with the most immediate major support a the December highs around $4,550.Gold Daily Chart Gold Daily Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold sends out a more gloomy picture on the Daily timeframe, with the two recent bearish candles located at relative spikes forming a double-top.While today's small rebound shows hesitancy, looking forward, as long as bulls can't manage to overtake the $5,379 highs from yesterday, technicals point to downside ahead.Crossing back below $5,100 would allow sellers to re-take control of the short-term action, hinting at a retest of the mid-Feb lows ($4,844).Breaking this level would then mark an official re-entry within the 2025 bull channel – $4,200 is its current lower bound (however it remains far from now).Levels of interest for Gold trading: Support Levels:$5,100 Major Pivot turned support (Short-term: sellers in control below – Testing)$4,850 to $4,900 Key Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:$5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $50)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Gold 4H Chart Gold 4H Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is now rejecting its intraday key 50-period moving average acting as resistance.A key test of the upward trendline will provide a last chance for bulls to re-take the short-term hand, before the double top materializes into a more consequential correction.Watch for a break and 4H close below $5,100.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

DAX is attempting a recovery following a 6% drop.The global energy shock is fueling stagflation anxiety, notably causing a record 12% plummet in the South Korean KOSPI index.Market performance is mixed: Technology and defense stocks are providing upward momentum, while disappointing earnings from Adidas and Bayer are weighing on the index.The technical outlook is bullish, with buyers returning to test the 24000 psychological level, hinting at a potential move to the upside.Read More: Is Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?The DAX index is attempting a recovery today following two sessions of aggressive selling driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East.Market sentiment saw a slight boost after President Trump suggested the US Navy might escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic chokepoint currently remains at a standstill, causing significant disruptions to global energy flows. Despite the diplomatic overtures, oil prices have continued their ascent climbing 14.5% so far this week, while European natural gas prices have surged a staggering 60% over the last two days following the shutdown of Qatari LNG facilities and the closure of the Strait.The economic impact of these spikes is being felt acutely across energy-dependent regions.While the DAX shed 6% over the last two sessions, the South Korean Kospi plummeted 12% overnight, reflecting a growing global anxiety over potential stagflation. This is the KOSPI benchmarks largest drop on record as South Korea is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.Over two days the tech-heavy index has lost more than 18% of its value while the currency KRW has slumped to a 17-year low.The trajectory of the market now hinges on the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices ease. A prolonged standoff increases the risk of a sustained energy shock, which could cement the stagflationary pressures currently being priced in by traders.According to sources, Qatar would need 2 weeks to restart gas liquefaction after a full shutdown. Once restarted, Qatar would need at least another 2 weeks to reach full capacity, which could lead to a temporary shock in prices if the conflict was to reach a swift conclusion.Performance within the DAX remains a mixed bag of sector-specific reactions and corporate earnings.Technology stocks are providing some upward momentum, with Infineon Technologies rising 3.7%, while defense stocks are seeing a modest recovery.However, individual earnings reports are weighing on the index; Adidas shares dropped 7% on disappointing results (now down 5%), and Bayer fell 4.76% after providing a weak 2026 profit outlook that overshadowed a fourth-quarter earnings beat. Source: LSEG Trade Idea - Potential DAX Buy Opportunity The DAX selloff saw the index drop below the psychological 24000 handle for the first time since December 2025.The foray has proved short-lived thus far with buyers returning as the index tested the descending channel it broke out of in December 2025.On the daily chart, the current daily candle is eyeing a close back above 24000 while at the same time printing an inside bar hammer candle.This would hint at a move to the upside in the days ahead.DAX Index Daily Chart, March 4, 2026 Source: TradingView For those looking to get involved, we drop down to a one-hour chart.Price is caught between the 20 and 50-day MAs with a retest of the 24000 handle presenting the best risk to reward opportunity for would be bulls.If such a pullback does not materialize, traders may wait for a break of the 50-Day MA at 24210 and look for an opportunity to get involved with targets resting at the 100-day MA around 24700 and potentially 25000 as well.DAX Index, One-Hour Chart, March 4, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) plunged 5%, surprisingly ignoring the escalating safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict.The selloff is primarily driven by rising oil prices sparking inflation fears, which led to reduced Fed rate cut expectations and a surging US Dollar.The technical outlook focuses on the $5000/oz retest, will bulls return or not?Read More: Geopolitics and Crude: Why WTI pulled back despite escalating Middle East risksThe price of gold has fallen 5% on Tuesday as a combination of profit taking and a US Dollar surge appear to be weighing on the precious metal. This is a surprise given the tension in the Middle East where regional escalation appears to be coming to fruition.Middle East regional escalation The Middle East has seen a sharp escalation in conflict following a series of coordinated strikes and diplomatic withdrawals.On Tuesday, explosions rocked Tehran and Beirut, while Iranian drones targeted the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, resulting in a fire and minor structural damage. This follows a similar drone strike on the US mission in Kuwait, prompting Washington to shutter both embassies and order the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and their families across the region.As the violence intensifies, the strategic scope of the war has become clearer. Despite recent ambiguous statements from President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the conflict's duration, sources indicate that Israel’s campaign is moving faster than its initial two-week timeline. The primary objective is reportedly the removal of Iran’s clerical leadership, a goal for which there is currently no firm deadline.The theater of war has also expanded into Lebanon, where Hezbollah forces have engaged Israel, triggering retaliatory air strikes and the reinforcement of Israeli ground positions in the south. In Beirut, heavy smoke and constant explosions have come to define the skyline, with local authorities reporting dozens of casualties as the fighting spreads.The conflict appears to be escalating which in theory should benefit haven demand and thus Gold prices. However, today's selloff in Gold has market participants in a state of confusion.This begs the question, what is driving the selloff in Gold?Rate cut expectations pared back, US dollar rises The simple answer may lie in inflationary concerns due to the rise in Oil prices.WTI is up around 14% since the start of the week and this has led to concerns about the impact this may have on inflation down the road. Markets are paying attention to this and it is having an impact on rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve.Just last week markets were pricing in around 60bps of rate cuts through December 2026, that number has now dropped to around 46bps of cuts, according to the latest LSEG data. The number had dropped to around the 40bps mark earlier in the day. Source: LSEG Mixed messaging from Fed officials today added to the concerns around inflation. Fed policymaker Schmid reiterated his concerns that demand is outpacing supply and that there is no room for complacency. However, Fed policymaker Williams struck a more upbeat tone, stating that recent inflation data has been reassuring.It appears for now, inflationary concerns are driving a lot of volatility.This coupled with the US dollar rising significantly as well appears to be weighing on the precious metal. The dollar appears to be the winner from safe haven flows at this stage as the Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 6 week highs and approaching the psychological 100.00 level.Another factor to consider is potential profit taking. After the surge in Gold prices after the weekend and at the start of the week, market participants could be locking in gains. This would lead to a drop off in the price of Gold as well and could be contributing to today's 5% decline.Where to next? Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, looking at the H4 chart for gold below and a $5000/oz retest has taken place.This key psychological barrier needs to hold if bulls are to return and recover some of today's losses.We have seen a bounce already with gold trading at $5095/oz at the time of writing. This has brought the price of the precious metal back to test the 100-day MA which rests around the $5090/oz mark.A move beyond this may find resistance at the previous swing low around the $5128/oz handle before the 50-day MA at $5179/oz comes into focus.A move lower here will first need to record a four-hour candle close below the $5000/oz handle before a retest of support at $4965/oz and the swing low from February 17,, which rests around the $4850/oz handle.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 3, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Dropping down to a 15-minute chart given how quickly price is moving at the moment may provide further insight.Looking at the chart below, I have drawn in two descending trendlines, an outer and inner one.These trendlines may be used in conjunction with your own analysis to track a potential rebound and find trading opportunities.Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart, March 3, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar is catching up to its safe-haven status as the Middle East conflict heats upFears of a prolonged intervention and high impact on Oil prices are boosting the Petrodollar statusDollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Today's Market action is sending out a warning to global Markets – Despite a relatively smooth opening on Monday, things will not be so simple for what could be the most significant conflict in a few decades.The reassurance of a "4-week" only intervention could prove to be a long shot, as Basij and IRGC forces begin to turn their operations away from their traditional military bases towards civilian infrastructures such as schools, mosques, and more.Strikes towards the Iranian military command are continuous, and this is proving to be quite a significant turn as Iranian retaliations keep striking Gulf countries with drones and ballistic missiles.The Market could be pricing in the broader conflict ahead, as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned, and this is reflected in the broad risk aversion and the rise in global Oil prices – Global Stock Markets are down between 2% and 7%!Brent is now trading well above its 12-Day War $77 spike – currently around $83.WTI is on its way towards its June peak ($78.43) and stands close to 2% below that level. The morning spike is now somewhat easing, but tensions are certainly gripping participants and will do so for the time ahead.Oil is the product to watch to track Market sentiment. Extending above June-War highs implies further detriment in sentiment ahead. If sellers can bring prices back below $73.50, risk sentiment should somewhat recover. US (WTI) Oil Daily Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now turning back to the Petrodollar case – As pointed out in this excellent piece, Fuel prices exploding around the world would make the case for swift dollar demand.Importers will face a greater need for dollars to sustain demand, which not only hurts major importers' currencies but could also create a dollar shortage as participants remain heavily short the reserve currency.For now, Oil is up "only" 15% from its Friday close. Catastrophic scenarios point to $100 a barrel if the conflict stays heated for long. The longer the war, the more damaging it would be to economies and inflation, and the higher the dollar could shoot.We’ll explore this effect through an in-depth technical analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY). Discover:Wartime is back in Markets – North American Session Market Wrap for March 2A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactionsOil prices jump on mid-east attacks, safe-haven demand surges & week aheadDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar has spiked significantly since its 98.00 week-long consolidation, as traders were already pricing in an immediate intervention.As it materialized, the Greenback broke out even further, extending its gains towards 2026 highs against all major currencies.It now faces a key test at the 99.50 Resistance zone – Let's look at its effect on the 1H timeframe after marking a few key levels for action.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Watch out for some short-term mean reversion in the Dollar – Looking at the swift flows, it could be difficult to expect a real reversion lower – The 99.00 Level could be a decent pullback level to get long the dollar.CHF/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD could be interesting conditionally to them retreating – Watch out to not put all your eggs in the same basket!Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance (immediate rejection, short-term pullback)99.68 Morning highs – breaching this on high volume should see heavy continuation!100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs100.376 November highs101.00 Next key resistanceSupport Levels99.00 Key psychological Support98.00 Key Mid-Range Support and 50-MA 98.002025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.001H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 1H timeframe shows a slightly over-extended move higher, implying a short-term pullback ahead.The 99.00 Level could prove a sweet spot to catch up on the trend.Breaking below the trendline is still possible, but a real reversal lower would only be confirmed below 98.80!Breaking back above the 99.68 morning highs would point to a continued breakout.Look at November highs (100.368) in that scenario.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks gapped lower at the open but have bounced higher significantly sinceInvestor sentiment remains elevated despite the new beginning of a rough conflict in the Middle EastExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Markets have eased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, but it seems that US Markets are remaining unfazed.Gapping lower by 1.50% across all benchmarks, Stocks are now rallying back, now close to unchanged, and essentially filling the gaps.J.P. Morgan issued a buy-the-dips recommendation, which undoubtedly helped risk sentiment ease, but US stocks remain at key inflection points. What is surprising is also seeing US Treasuries sell off (10Y Yield back above 4.00%) despite ongoing intense exchanges in the Middle East – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are also exploding higher as we speak. Markets were trading at the lows of their ranges, which could also have helped the rebound.I invite you to check out Morning reactions and a detailed resume of the events right here.Keep a close eye on sentiment throughout the week, as economic damage from the war is still far from reflected. The Strait of Hormuz and a potential closure there could be hurting sentiment more consistently throughout the week. Let's explore the key levels for weekly action by diving into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactionsMarkets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreatsSafe-haven demand intensifies as US-Iran conflict extends - Gold, WTI Crude, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD short-term outlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 2, 2026 Despite the rebound around US Benchmarks, individual equities are sending a mixed picture. Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Energy stocks are dominating the action.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones rebounded significantly from its 48,103 overnight futures lows, and is now facing a significant test at its Gap-fill level and 50-Hour MA (48,925 – Morning Highs).Closing above on the session would imply a buy-the-dip flows over War flows – Odds for this could be compromised if news worsen.Rejecting the 50-Hour MA (immediate test) could lead to further downside in US Indexes – Doing so could see a test of the overnight lows.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsKey 1H MA 48,925 – Current rejection & Morning highs200-Hour MA 49,270January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,70049,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsPast week Support 48,660 to 48,740 (Friday lows)November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Minor SupportOvernight futures lows 48,103Key Support from 47,500 to 48,000 (Next main Support)45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq breached back above its 50-Hour MA but is less responsive than the DJIA to the indicator.The level to watch is being tested as we speak: 25,000.Closing above on the session would see further dip-buying, like in the DJIA.Rejecting here however could see a quick test of the 24,441 overnight lows.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Immediate rejection!)25,400 to 25,500 Intraday resistanceAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMini-intraday support 24,744 (bearish below)24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)24,441 Overnight lowsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is facing almost similar conditions as the Dow. After running higher in the morning session, bulls will be facing a key test at the 200-Hour MA (6,874).Trading and closing above would point to 7,000.Below would point to a test of the 6,760 overnight lows.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMorning highs and 200-Hour MA (6,874)Key Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH minor Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,760February lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This weekend marked the beginning of a foreseen but still shocking operation in Iran as US and Israeli forces aim to topple the Islamic Regime.Killing the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first strikes, the battle is still anticipated to last around four weeks, as declared by President Trump and Head of the Department of War Pete Hegseth. Strikes on IRGC facilities and missile launchers are numerous and continuous.At the same time, the Islamic regime retaliates against US positions across the Middle East, but has also sent missiles and drones against several Arab nations.This includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman.Hezbollah, a terrorist organization affiliated with the current Iranian regime, has also joined the conflict by sending drones and ballistic missiles not only to Israel but also to Cyprus, where UK military bases are located. The organization's leader has been reported to have been eliminated during the Middle Eastern afternoon.A few themes concerning Markets: a prolonged war affecting risk sentiment amid already chaotic Market conditions, and what happens to the Strait of Hormuz.This Strait, located between the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, just below Iran, is where more than 90% of Oil flows to Asia. Its closure during the 1970s preceded a global Oil supply crisis, leading to severe price rises and disruptions to international trade; hence, anything happening there could have a severe impact.Communications and announcements are to be closely tracked to monitor how the conflict advances. The longer it lasts, the more erratic things can become.Check out our freshly released Podcast episode to learn more.Let's dive into the major movers of this tense weekly open. Discover: Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats Financial Markets are getting rocked from the latest developments, but reactions have remained relatively contained.Energy Markets WTI (US) Oil prices have gapped up to $73.50 before easing to the current ~$71.50 region, still higher by 6.50% relative to Friday's close. All energy products are experiencing similar rises. WTI (US) Oil CFD Daily Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Brent (UK) prices have however spiked even higher, gapping close to 10% to $80.00 and also somewhat retraced back to its opening price. Energy Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Metals Markets Metal Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Metals have offered quite another, less predictable dynamic during the overnight/morning session.Gold is running higher while others are easing slightly, with Platinum down 2.50% and Silver breaching back below $90 per oz. Gold CFD 4H Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView I invite you to check out our Gold short-term analysis right here. More will be coming throughout the week.US Dollar Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is also seeing a significant rise in this morning's action as safe-haven flows race back towards the Reserve currency.The petrodollar trade quickly returns when Middle East conflicts rise. It is a first however in recent times, as the Greenback had been getting sold off on recent risk-aversion.It's consolidation near 98.00 (Dollar Index) had foreshadowed a rally on such the occurrence. (I hope some observed our recent US Dollar piece!)Watch the reactions as it nears a key resistance (98.80 to 99.00) and been retracing slightly since.If it goes back to 98.00, dip-buying would not be surprising.Risk-assets: Stock Markets and Cryptos Stock Market Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz European and Global indexes have corrected roughly in the risk-off sentiment. On the other hand, while US benchmarks fell during the futures session, dip-buying seems to be ongoing. Dow Jones CFD 30M Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView A detailed look into US Stock Markets will be coming at the top of the hour. Crypto Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Cryptos corrected over the weekend, moving lower initially on the news, but are now bouncing sharply higherBitcoin remains above its 200-Day Moving Average near $69,000. Bitcoin CFD 4H Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades and keep track of the evolution of the conflict ahead!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.