US July NFIB small business optimism index 99.8 vs 97.5 expectedAnother cargo ship reportedly struck by the Houthis in the Red SeaUK stats office to only decide in July next year on plausibility of transition to improved labour market dataItaly trade surplus widens to €4.2 billion in June as exports accelerateThe S&P 500 rally stalls as US-Iran deal gets delayed and the focus shifts to the US CPI reportYen buying likely to stay more muted for the time being - MUFGGold extends the rally after the soft NFP, but the US CPI could wipe out all the gainsSingapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeOil price prediction: Crude holds above $82 as bulls target a breakout past $82.55What are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 11 August 10am New York cutRBA governor Bullock: We did not discuss a rate cut at this meeting, only a rate hike or to holdBitcoin analysis shows the crypto king holds near $64k as order flow improves, but $65k remains the real testRBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August monetary policy meeting, as expectedHeads up: RBA monetary policy decision at the bottom of the hourIt's been a relatively calm session with limited data and news flow. The highlight was the RBA's rate decision where the central bank held the Cash Rate steady at 4.35% as widely expected. The central bank has also released the updated macroeconomic forecasts where inflation was revised lower and unemployment higher. The Cash Rate assumption for 2027 has also been revised lower to indicate potentially just one more rate hike ahead if needed. RBA Governor Bullock reiterated their hawkish stance and stressed that the Board had not discussed a rate cut at this meeting, only a rate hike or a hold. She also added that a rate hike is still in front of their mind suggesting that the bar for an additional rate hike remains relatively low. The US NFIB Small Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in July compared to 97.4 in the prior month, moving the index above the 52-year average of 98.0 and reaching the highest level since August 2025. The July increase was broad-based, with eight of the index’s 10 components improving, while two declined. The strongest contribution came from hiring plans, pointing to a renewed willingness among small businesses to expand their workforces. There was also improvement in plans to make capital expenditure, although uncertainty remains elevated.On the geopolitical front, the Qatari foreign minister spokesperson said that negotiations between Iran and Oman are now in an advanced stage and there was positive feedback from both sides. The New York Times yesterday reported that Iran talks with Oman on shipping routes in the Hormuz strait were separate from discussions to fully reopen the waterway. Iran insists that the strait will remain closed until the US agrees to Iran's demands.For background, Iran's demands include never threatening Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of the nation, ending the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever, lifting the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces from around Iran, paying the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran, lifting the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation, unconditionally releasing the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people. That's peanuts...In the markets, the price action has been mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report due tomorrow. We saw some action in the Australian dollar, with a drop on the rate decision and a recovery during Bullock's press conference. Oil prices have also saw a notable decline following the Qatari foreign minister spokesperson's remarks and the news of Pakistani's interior minister arriving in Tehran for talks.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was 97.4 This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Maritime security sources and coast guards in the region are reporting that a cargo ship has been targeted in the Red Sea, in the Bab al-Mandab strait. The sources are reporting that the deck of the cargo ship was struck and that three persons were killed in the attack.This just keeps the tensions up with not just the Strait of Hormuz being impacted by attacks. The constant threats along the Bab al-Mandab strait also means that oil supplies are being impacted, especially with Saudi Arabia being caught in the crosshairs here.For some context, the number of daily vessel transits along the Bab al-Mandab strait is usually around 120 to 140 ships before the conflict started. But now, we're seeing that number fall to around 25 to 40 ships per day instead.While that is a pick up from the July lows and the peak of the threats by the Houthis last month, headlines like the one above will continue to deliver a warning to shipping companies across the region. That especially with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where daily ship transits have fallen to just single-digits.Oil prices continue to stay underpinned this week, with WTI crude now up 2.5% to $84.22 on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This builds on the previous story here: ONS to only lay groundwork for labour market statistical improvements in AugustFor some backdrop, this has been an ongoing issue for well over three years now. The issue with UK labour market data is more of the accuracy and consistency during the past few years, largely due to the falling response rate to the Labour Force Survey (LFS).As such, the UK stats office has announced that they will be making the transition to a Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) instead. However, the timeline for this transition has been pushed back one too many a time already.Initially, everything was supposed to be put into place by November this year. Fast forward to now, and it seems like the target transition date is now postponed to a full year later. The ONS says that while recent improvements to the survey have been encouraging, "more time is needed to understand the full impact of the recent changes and assess what they mean for the quality of the statistics".As such, they want to keep collecting data and analysing available information through to July 2027 before deciding on whether the TLFS is fully ready. And if so, the transition will then be made in November 2027 after."The next major milestone is expected in July 2027, when we plan to undertake a further full readiness assessment. If the evidence supports it, and  if  we and our users are ready, we will make the transition to the TLFS for our headline labour market statistics in November 2027."The full update blog post can be found here.In the meantime, UK labour market data will continue to have a caveat attached to it. And it has been something that the BOE has been vocal about in criticising the ONS for, as the lack of credible data makes it harder for policymakers to decide on monetary policy.Given the ONS' history of bottling things, I would not be the least bit surprised if this timeline for next year happens to be pushed even further come what may. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Italy’s trade balance recorded a €4.23 billion surplus in June 2026, with both exports and imports increasing on a monthly and annual basis, according to seasonally adjusted data.Exports rose 1.6% m/m, while imports increased by 1.2%. The stronger export performance was driven primarily by trade with EU countries, where exports jumped 6.7%, while shipments to non-EU countries declined 3.6%.On the import side, incoming flows increased from both EU and non-EU markets, rising 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. The latest figures also point to stronger trade activity over the second quarter. Compared with the previous three-month period, seasonally adjusted exports increased 2.2%, while imports recorded a considerably stronger 5.4% rise.On an annual basis, trade flows accelerated further. Exports in June were 9.8% higher than in the same month of 2025, while imports increased 13.2%. Export growth was particularly strong within the EU, with outgoing flows rising 15.1% year-on-year. Exports to non-EU countries increased at a more moderate 4.1%.Imports showed the opposite pattern, with incoming flows from non-EU countries jumping 18.7%, compared with a 9.1% increase from EU countries. Despite imports growing faster than exports over the year, Italy maintained a substantial trade surplus in June.The overall surplus stood at €4.23 billion, consisting of a €1.58 billion surplus with EU countries and a €2.66 billion surplus with non-EU countries. Excluding energy products, Italy's trade surplus was considerably larger, reaching €9.23 billion, highlighting the continued strength of the country's underlying goods trade position.Import prices fell 1.3% m/m in June. Prices for imports from the euro area were unchanged, while prices from non-euro-area countries declined 2.6%. The quarterly picture was different. Over the three months to June, import prices increased 5.0% compared with the previous three-month period, driven by a 7.4% increase in prices from non-euro-area countries and a 2.5% rise for the euro area.On an annual basis, import prices were 4.9% higher than in June 2025. Prices increased 3.0% for euro-area imports and 6.6% for imports from outside the euro area. Overall, June's data point to robust growth in Italian trade flows, with exports continuing to expand and the country maintaining a sizeable external surplus. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong rally in the S&P 500 has stalled last Wednesday as the US-Iran deal failed to materialise within the expected timeline. Since then, the price action has been mostly rangebound with just softer than expected NFP reportproviding some support. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike falling to 38%, compared with 54% before the release. Market pricing has normalised since then though, with the probability of a September hike rising back to 48%.The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.The next major event will be the US CPI report tomorrow. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give the S&P 500 another boost. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the S&P 500 stalled around the upper bound of the rising channel as traders await the US CPI report. The sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the record high to position for a drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the record high to extend the gains into the 8,000 level.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation that started last Wednesday when the US-Iran deal failed to materialise. The soft NFP provided some support due to the dovish repricing, but the US CPI will ultimately decide whether the Fed hikes or not in September. The swing low around the 7,725 level will likely act as a minor support. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the swing low to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the drop into the 7,640 support next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action will likely remain mostly rangebound into the US CPI release. We could also see some hedging into the data which could result in some weakness. At this point, it’s just about waiting patiently for the data. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Despite the joint intervention move by Japan and the US, it doesn't seem to be sticking all too much. USD/JPY is already on its way back up in pushing above 159 this week, though I would argue that traders will remain a bit more cautious in chasing a move above 160 for now.While the combined effort between Japan and the US is significant, MUFG is one to argue that it's not likely to perpetuate - at least in terms of market signaling. The firm believes that traders are still looking to sell the yen where possible at this juncture."After such a large FX drop in USD/JPY, market participants’ appetite for buying the yen could remain muted for now. Certain elements of the market, like retail FX margin traders, were short USD/JPY and could be playing a role in providing renewed yen selling flows. Those short USD/JPY positions have probably been liquidated but returning to a carry strategy (rather than directional) may be deemed as more attractive once again at these lower levels, encouraging renewed USD/JPY buying."In my view, it's more of a give and take at the moment. As a reminder, it's all a psychological game when it comes to USD/JPY - as it has been since April.The joint intervention is a clear enough signal for traders not to get too carried away in the short-term. However, it doesn't change the fact that the fundamentals for the yen currency remain absolutely dreadful. And it won't get any better the longer that the US-Iran conflict continues to rage on.Sitting on the joint intervention topic, Nomura chimes in to say that the amount spent by the MOF this time around likely exceeded that back in late April to early May."We yet don't know the amount of intervention from both sides, but we estimate the Japanese authorities provided approximately ¥14.1 trillion in intervention or $88 billion from 30 July to 3 August, using the BOJ's daily data and local money market dealers' projections. This exceeds the amount of MOF intervention on 30 April, 4 May and 6 May, which was officially confirmed by the MOF as ¥11.7349 trillion. On these interventions in April-May, we found this daily intervention result somewhat surprising, as it did intervene on 4 May, as we believed that intervention did not occur on this day, based on price action on that day."Adding that US intervention amount remains unclear for now but there was perhaps a different message indicated by Washington in the manner that they chose to step into the market:"Reports from the FT and Nikkei strongly suggest the US likely conducted short EUR/JPY intervention. The US likely chose this pair to curb JPY weakness, as it did not want to convey a message to the market that could be inconsistent with its strong USD policy." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended into new highs yesterday as a soft NFP report on Friday led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations.  Overall, the data wasn’t as bad as the headline number suggested. The significant loss of government jobs made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. The labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.Today, the price action might be mostly rangebound or we could see some hedging into the US CPI tomorrow that could result in some weakness. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in gold, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give gold another boost to extend the rally into new highs. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold has almost reached the major trendline around the 4,500 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,800 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish structure. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 4,200 support next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the minor trendline, while the sellers will need to wait for either a break below the minor trendline or a rally into the major one. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Oil price prediction: Crude holds near breakout highs, but $82.55 is the line bulls need to clearCrude oil futures remain technically bullish after surging from the high-$77s into the low-$82s, although consolidation near the highs shows that buyers have yet to secure a clean continuation.Based on user-supplied CL SEP26 30-minute data covering August 9–11, crude advanced from an initial close of $78.85 to $82.40—a gain of $3.55, or approximately 4.5%. The contract reached a low of $77.79 early on August 10 before reversing sharply and printing a high of $82.55 on August 11.The immediate outlook remains constructive above $81.90–$82.00. However, $82.55 has emerged as the confirmation level bulls must clear to unlock the next move toward $83.00 and potentially $83.40–$83.50.High-volume breakout strengthens the bullish caseThe defining move occurred on August 10, when crude recovered through $79 and accelerated above $80. During the main impulse window between 10:00 and 16:00, the contract gained approximately $2.59 on aggregate volume of 91,965.The session’s highest-volume 30-minute bar appeared at 11:00, recording volume of 13,966 and closing at $80.86. Because the strongest participation coincided with the breakout through $80, the advance looks more convincing than a rally driven solely by thin trading conditions.Crude subsequently extended into the $82.30–$82.55 area without surrendering much of the gain. That ability to consolidate near the highs is generally constructive: sellers have slowed the advance but have not yet forced a meaningful reversal.The caution is that momentum has cooled. Later consolidation occurred on lighter volume, while DataLogger readings showed a notable selling imbalance near the highs around 16:01 on August 10. This suggests that buyers may need a fresh catalyst before they can force another sustained leg higher.Geopolitical risk remains part of the oil-price equationThe technical breakout is unfolding against continued uncertainty over Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. InvestingLive reported that President Trump’s response to Iran’s reparations demand had pushed a potential Hormuz agreement further out of reach, potentially prolonging uncertainty around a critical global energy route.A separate InvestingLive analysis described Trump’s approach as shifting toward a “siege strategy”. For oil traders, continued economic pressure and restricted shipping conditions can preserve a geopolitical risk premium even without an immediate military escalation.A broader technical perspective points in the same directional sense, although it uses a different benchmark and price framework. According to market analysis from Exness, crude oil is demonstrating renewed bullish momentum after holding key support with technical indicators signaling a potential push higher. Exness oil anaysis levels differ but that is not the point. I am anlayzing the September 2026 futures contract here. Different crude benchmarks, contract months and analysis windows can trade at materially different prices. The relevant overlap is the bullish momentum signal, not the exact price levels.Oil price forecast: Levels traders should watchThe near-term technical map centers on $82.55 resistance and $81.90–$82.00 support.Bullish scenarioA decisive break and sustained hold above $82.55 would confirm that buyers have absorbed the supply appearing near the recent high. That would bring the psychological $83.00 level into focus.If momentum and volume expand above $83.00, the next measured-move objective sits around $83.40–$83.50. The high-volume advance through $80 and the subsequent retention of most gains provide the strongest evidence for this scenario.Consolidation scenarioIf crude remains above $81.90 but cannot clear $82.55, sideways trading may continue. Such a pause would not invalidate the uptrend, but repeated failures at resistance could gradually weaken momentum and encourage short-term profit-taking.Bearish scenarioA break below $81.90 would be the first sign that the post-breakout consolidation is turning into a correction. Initial downside attention would shift to $81.60–$81.70, followed by the former breakout and congestion zone between $81.20 and $80.80.A deeper reversal could expose $79.60–$79.75, the major August 10 breakout shelf. Below that area, $78.70–$78.75 becomes the next older pivot.Crude oil predictionSome of you oil traders are already in Long and have enjoyed the recent rally. So what about considering some partial profit taking?My 4-hour Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) chart above displays a strong upward recovery, pushing the current price level toward $82.66. For traders holding long positions, the chart identifies an immediate partial profit target at the local horizontal resistance level around $82.82. A secondary, higher profit target is marked at $84.25, which corresponds directly with the previous month's Point of Control (pmPOC).Oil’s short-term bias remains bullish while CL SEP26 holds above $81.90–$82.00. A clean break above $82.55 would confirm renewed upside momentum and put $83.00, followed by $83.40–$83.50, in focus.However, failure to clear $82.55 followed by a drop below $81.90 would suggest that the rally is entering a corrective phase after rebounding more than $4 from the August 10 low.The technical evidence currently favors buyers, but the market is stretched enough that confirmation matters. Traders should monitor volume around $82.55, along with inventory data, OPEC headlines, US dollar movement, broader risk sentiment and geopolitical developments affecting Gulf supply routes.This oil price analysis and forecast opinion is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the Italian trade balance. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action will likely remain mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report, but we could also see some hedging into the release that could result in pullbacks across different markets. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just get a couple of low-tier releases like the weekly US ADP employment change and the US existing home sales. The data won't change anything for the Fed, so the market reaction will be muted. It's just going to be another day of waiting for the US CPI release and further US-Iran developments... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.Markets are continuing to stay in the countdown to the US CPI report tomorrow. That is the main event this week and as such, major currencies are also more or less caught in a bind until we get to the data release.The lack of expiries today will not give currency traders much to work with, so don't expect all too much action in European morning trade once again.All eyes will stay on the Japanese yen, with the currency falling back again this week in erasing a chunk of the intervention move at the end of July. That is keeping the dollar supported as well, though the counter-balance to that is the softer US jobs report from Friday last week.All that being said, USD/JPY will remain cautious the closer we get to the 160 mark. That could be the key psychological level in which we might see another round of joint intervention or perhaps even just Tokyo deciding to act on its own again, to at least try and make their presence felt.Otherwise, the pressure valve will turn to the other side and move against Japanese officials once again. So, it's a careful line to thread right now for them.Besides that, there's not too much of a focus for major currencies besides watching for how the dollar will react to the inflation numbers tomorrow.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Sees upside risks to inflationExpects a period of subdued economic growth will be required to bring inflation downReady to raise cash rate again if neededNot ruling out further rate hikes, need more informationThe board discussed raising the cash rate todayDid not discuss a rate cut, only a rate hike or a stayThinking hard about when it might be appropriate to raise interest ratesWe didn't discuss a rate hike in the previous meeting but did this timeThe argument in favour of a rate hike was inflation is still too elevated with upside risks potentiallyThere is a bit of flow through of higher cost pressures, keeping alert to thatDecided to wait for a bit more information but rate hike is still front of mindWe need economic growth to slow, less tightness in the labour marketQuite possible we might need to raise cash rate againWe are aware of upside risks to inflation but we already raised cash rate three times before thisThe comments from Bullock are nothing all too surprising. She is mainly just reaffirming that they are still in a position to raise the cash rate further, with that option being the only other plausible step they are considering. But given current conditions and what the data is saying, they are not seeing an urgent need to take that step just yet.As such, the RBA will just want to bide their time and let the impact of previous rate hikes filter through to the economy further.But amid upside risks from the Middle East conflict being prolonged, there's still a likelihood that they need to do more at some point. However, Bullock is not indicating much urgency to do so as of right now even if the board did discuss a rate hike today.And she is firm about that by constantly reiterating that "we have already raised the cash rate three times", adding that policy is now "restrictive and tight".AUD/USD remains little changed at 0.7050 on the day currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC is still damaged, but sellers are losing efficiency near $64,000Bitcoin futures remain structurally bearish after the sharp August 10 breakdown, but the latest order-flow evidence is becoming more constructive. Sellers were aggressive around $63,865-$64,000, yet struggled to push price materially lower. That creates a credible bullish repair attempt, although BTC still needs to reclaim major resistance before the broader structure can turn bullish.Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders todayConsolidated prediction score: -1 / +10, improvingBroader structure: Bearish after the loss of $64,900-$65,000Short-term order flow: Improving, with signs of seller absorption near $63,865-$64,000First repair test:$64,300-$64,400Major structural test:$64,875-$65,000Main downside risk: Accepted trade below $63,865The important point is that Bitcoin is not simply bullish or bearish here.The broader structure remains damaged, while the latest battle between buyers and sellers is improving.What changed near the August 10 Bitcoin low?Bitcoin fell from above roughly $65,200-$65,500 to a low near $63,865 on August 10.The structural damage came when BTC lost the $64,900-$65,000 region, which had previously acted as an important support and value area.That keeps the 30-minute structure bearish.But the shorter-term order flow tells a more interesting story.Near the low, aggressive selling remained heavy. One important period showed strongly negative delta, yet Bitcoin recovered from $63,865 and closed close to the top of the range.That suggests sellers were aggressive, but increasingly ineffective.In other words, buyers appeared willing to absorb supply around $63,865-$64,000.What this means: Absorption occurs when aggressive sellers keep hitting the market, but price stops making equivalent downside progress because opposing buyers are taking the other side.This does not confirm a reversal. It does make the low more meaningful.Why negative delta is not automatically bearishThe latest shorter-term readings produced another useful divergence: Bitcoin was rising toward roughly $64,235 while delta remained negative.At first glance, that sounds bearish. But price response matters more than delta in isolation.If sellers remain aggressive and price still rises, their selling is not having the expected effect.That suggests passive buyers are currently doing more of the work than aggressive buyers.I would call that bullish repair sponsorship, not buyer takeover.Why the Bitcoin score is only slightly bearishThe two analytical layers are saying different things because they measure different parts of the market.The broader structure still deserves more weight because BTC remains below $64,900-$65,000.But the market is clearly less bearish than the structural score alone would suggest.That is why the consolidated reading is -1 / +10, with an improving trajectory.Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watchThe first important bullish test is $64,300-$64,400.A quick probe above that zone is not enough. I would rather see Bitcoin spend time above it and defend pullbacks.Above $64,600-$64,650, the rebound starts looking less like a mechanical bounce.The much bigger test remains $64,875-$65,000. That is where former support must prove it can become accepted value again.A rally into $65,000 is not automatically bullish. A reclaim and hold would matter much more.What would weaken the Bitcoin repair?The first warning comes below roughly $63,975.The more important level is the August 10 low near $63,865.A brief sweep below that low followed by an immediate reclaim can simply be a liquidity grab. Sustained acceptance below it is different.If BTC begins holding below $63,865, I would treat the current constructive order-flow signal as a failed repair, and the broader bearish structure would regain control.Bearish structure plus bullish order flow is a transition stateThis is the most useful lesson in the current setup.A market does not need to move directly from bearish to bullish. The faster evidence can improve before the slower chart structure turns.Bitcoin currently sits in the second category.That is why I prefer the phrase:Credible bullish repair inside a still-damaged bearish structure.How traders can use the Bitcoin mapShorter-term traders may react earlier to improving order flow rather than waiting for Bitcoin to fully reclaim $65,000.A practical progression is:Below $64,300: Early repair onlyAbove $64,300-$64,400 with acceptance: Repair strengthensAbove $64,600-$64,650: Recovery gains credibilityAbove $64,875-$65,000 with acceptance: Major structural improvementBelow $63,975: Repair weakensBelow $63,865 with acceptance: Bearish continuation risk rises sharplyIf a bullish trade begins working, partial profits around logical resistance zones can help reduce risk. After a first or second target, traders may also consider tightening stops or otherwise protecting part of the open gain.The tradeCompass is a decision map, not a promise that Bitcoin must follow one path.For more context on how threshold activation, confirmation, partial profits and invalidation work together, read how to use the investingLive tradeCompass market map.How to know if this Bitcoin analysis is still validBecause Bitcoin trades around the clock, compare the latest price with the map rather than treating this article as a permanent forecast.If BTC has reclaimed and held above $64,875-$65,000, the bearish structure described here has materially improved.If BTC is accepting below $63,865, the bullish repair thesis has largely failed.If price remains between those areas, the transition is still playing out.The current read remains slightly bearish, but improving.Sellers still own the broader structural advantage. They are simply no longer getting the same result from their aggression near $64,000.That change is worth respecting.Trade crypto at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Cash rate 4.35%Prior 4.35%While the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected, headline inflation is still too highShort-term measures of inflation expectations have eased but remain higher than earlier in the yearThere continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflationA period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower overseas and in AustraliaFocused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embeddedInflation not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027There are also upside risks to this projectionWill continue to do what is necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialiseDecision today was unanimousFull statementThe decision is as you would expect, with the RBA also not sounding overly concerned about recent inflation developments. That being said, their forward guidance language did shift a little as indicated in bold above.While not explicitly pointing to further tightening steps just yet, they are making markets know that the risks are now tilted to the upside on inflation instead. It's no longer a case of dual-sided risks, and it has been that way since the US-Iran conflict started to be fair. So, the statement language this time around makes it more clear in terms of their focus directive.The RBA is also attaching a bit of a timeline in saying that inflation is not likely to fall back to where it wants until the late next year. As such, that opens up some room for further rate hikes in the near future if need be.The unanimous decision itself is also not leaving traders with much to work with. It is essentially a case of the RBA just reaffirming that they acknowledge the potential to raise the cash rate again, if and when necessary. However, they're not really rushing into that for now.Coming into the decision, traders were pricing in ~97% odds of no change for the meeting. So, this more or less fits with the narrative priced in. AUD/USD is flat at 0.7051 on the day in the immediate aftermath of the decision. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The softer Australian inflation data at the end of July was pretty much the dealbreaker ahead of today's decision. As things stand, traders are not expecting any changes to the cash rate but all eyes will be on what the statement has to offer.Will there be any hawkish indications still or perhaps some signs of dissent? That will certainly keep things interesting as the threshold for any hawkish surprises isn't exactly high.Traders are pricing in ~97% odds of no change today but also ~82% odds of no change in September next. The November and December meetings are more of a coin flip with there only being ~14 bps of rate hikes priced in by year-end for now.That being said, the data will have to corroborate with any hawkish leanings that we will see. So, there's that to consider as well.The cash rate is expected to be held steady at 4.35% today with much of the forward guidance from before expected to remain too. In its previous statement, the RBA said that:"Following the three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and there are signs that the economy is slowing as expected. But inflation is still too high and the Board judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses the response to previous interest rate rises and the impact of the oil supply disruption.The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment. It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required."Any changes there will be heavily scrutinised as such, alongside any indication that the decision today being unanimous or not. So, just be on the look out for that.Here are some previews as posted by Eamonn earlier:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decision This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeRupee set to open weaker as oil pressure builds, RBI support in focusSources: BoJ could raise rates again at September 17-18 meetingSouth Korea: Kospi rises for second day as Samsung Electronics jumps circa 3.6%Australian business conditions edge higher in July but confidence stays fragileNZ PM Luxon calls urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculationPBOC sets seven-day reverse repo volume at ZERO on Tuesday, citing primary dealer demandGold hits two-month high as markets await US inflation data this weekUK data: Barclaycard spending rises 2.0% in July as consumer confidence hits 21-month highPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7900 (vs. estimate at 6.7497)Yen strength still hinges on BOJ hike, not capital repatriation (or intervention!), Goldman saysIntel plans to sell $15 billion worth of stock after it has risen 400% in a yearYen support looks fragile; Tokyo opts for passive strategy, missed chance to press intervention advantageRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine printPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionICYMI - Cleveland Fed's Hammack says Fed should already be raising rates, more than one hike neededUNCONFIRMED - Incoming report of further cruise missile launches from Sirik, IranMUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsWhat'd I miss? Trump counters Iran reparations demand, pushing Hormuz deal further out of reach.Summary:Oil stays supported as Hormuz deal hopes dim further on tit-for-tat reparations demands from Iran and TrumpLibya's NOC declares force majeure at Zawiya refinery after armed clashes and storage tank fires, threatening El Sharara outputRussia's Komsomolsk refinery in Khabarovsk Krai attacked, over 6,500km from UkraineFX subdued; AUD in focus ahead of RBA decision (2:30pm Sydney), hawkish hold expectedKospi up circa 0.6% for a second day on Samsung strength; won stronger, foreigners net buyersJapan closed for holiday; media reports firm September 18 BoJ hike expectations, yen little moved regardlessSingapore Q2 GDP beats at 5.9% y/y, 2026 growth forecast raised to 4.5-5.5% on AI boom; MAS says policy stance remains appropriateOil remained supported in the absence of a Strait of Hormuz deal and with efforts to reopen the waterway dampened by tit-for-tat demands by Iran and US President Trump for reparations.Further, Libya's NOC declares force majeure at Zawiya refinery after clashes. Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared force majeure at its 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery following clashes between armed groups. The refinery experienced fires after storage tanks were hit, multiple times, threatening production at the El Sharara oil field.Russia's Komsomolsk Oil Refinery in Khabarovsk Krai came under attack. This is 6,500+ kms from Ukraine.FX traded in subdued ranges. AUD traders are awaiting the RBA at 2:30pm Sydney time / 0430 GMT / 0030 US Eastern time, with Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock's press conference following an hour later. A hawkish hold is expected.RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine printSouth Korea's Kospi rose for a second straight day, up around 0.6%, as Samsung Electronics jumped circa 3.6% while SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution slipped. Foreigners were net buyers and the won strengthened, even as broader sentiment stayed cautious on the Middle East conflict.Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Reports from Japanese media, citing unnamed sources, firmed expectations for a Bank of Japan September (18th) interest rate hike. The yen fell regardless, though only in a small range.Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in Q2, beating forecasts, as the government raised its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% from 2.0-4.0%, citing a stronger than expected AI investment boom offsetting a less severe than feared Middle East war impact. An official from Singapore's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said the country's monetary policy stance remains appropriate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The rupee's weakness is a fairly direct read through of the broader oil driven risk premium building around the Hormuz standoff, with Brent's advance toward the $88 level adding fresh pressure on India's import bill and currency. RBI's consistent dollar selling near current levels is doing the heavy lifting in capping losses, with traders explicitly noting the pair would already be well past 95.50 without that support, underscoring how reliant the rupee is on central bank intervention rather than any independent strength. The added move higher in the US 10 year yield, reversing the softer tone that followed last week's weak payrolls data, adds a second headwind by making dollar assets more attractive just as oil is pushing importer demand for dollars higher. With the oil market remaining highly sensitive to any Hormuz related headline flow, including Trump's counter conditions to Iran's demands, the rupee's near term path looks tightly linked to how that standoff evolves rather than to any domestic driver.-- The rupee is only holding its ground because the RBI keeps showing up, and today looks like another day it will have to.Info via Reuters. Summary:The rupee is expected to open weaker in the 95.35-95.40 per dollar range, having settled around 95.30 on Monday.The currency traded in a roughly 95.10-95.30 range over the prior three sessions, with heavy dollar demand keeping it under pressure while RBI intervention capped losses.The RBI likely sold dollars near 95.25 on Monday, though the rupee still slipped, reflecting pressure from importer hedging and higher oil prices.A trader said the pair would likely be well past 95.50 without the RBI's consistent dollar selling, and expects similar central bank support today.Brent crude rose circa 5% on Monday amid stalled US-Iran peace talks and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening, extending gains in Asia trading toward the $88 a barrel level.President Trump responded to Iran's list of demands with his own conditions on Monday, while the rise in oil prices pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield up to around 4.70%, reversing its earlier decline on soft jobs data. The Indian rupee looked set to open weaker on Tuesday, pressured by rising oil prices amid stalled US-Iran peace talks, with traders once again looking to the Reserve Bank of India to intervene and limit the currency's decline.The rupee is expected to open in the 95.35 to 95.40 range against the dollar, according to traders, having settled around 95.30 on Monday. The currency has traded in a roughly 95.10 to 95.30 band over the past three sessions, with persistent dollar demand keeping it under pressure even as RBI intervention has helped cap the extent of its losses.On Monday, the central bank likely sold dollars near the 95.25 level, though the rupee still slipped further, a sign of the pressure coming from importer hedging activity and higher oil prices. One currency trader at a bank said the RBI has been consistently on the offer in the dollar rupee pair, adding that without that support the currency would already be trading well past 95.50. The trader expects Tuesday to follow a similar pattern, with underlying dollar demand needing to be absorbed by the central bank once again.The pressure on the rupee is closely tied to developments around the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Uncertainty over a US-Iran peace deal and the prospect of reopening the strait pushed Brent crude up circa 5% on Monday, with the rally extending into Asian trading Tuesday and pushing the benchmark toward the $88 a barrel level. The oil market remains highly sensitive to news flow around any signs of progress toward a deal, with President Trump responding to Iran's list of demands with his own set of conditions on Monday, keeping the standoff unresolved.The rise in oil prices has had a knock on effect in bond markets as well, pushing the US 10 year Treasury yield up to around 4.70%, reversing the decline that followed last week's softer than expected US jobs data. For the rupee, that combination of higher oil prices and rising US yields represents a double headwind, reinforcing the currency's reliance on continued RBI support to avoid a more pronounced slide. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This report adds a further layer of support to the yen thesis that has been building across recent coverage, where market participants including MUFG and Goldman Sachs have argued that genuine, lasting yen strength depends on the BoJ actually delivering further tightening rather than on intervention alone. Sources cited by Jiji suggesting the Bank may consider an additional hike at its September meeting, following June's increase, aligns with the hawkish tone already flagged in the July meeting's Summary of Opinions and adds a policy pathway that could reinforce rather than undercut the joint intervention effort. A separate report suggesting the BoJ could feel pressured to act given that intervention adds a political economy dimension, implying the Bank may want to validate the intervention with a genuine policy move rather than risk it being read as unsupported. Together these threads point toward September hike pricing becoming a more prominent theme for USD/JPY over the coming weeks. A September BoJ hike is looking increasingly plausible, and if it happens, it would give the joint intervention the fundamental backing that MUFG and Goldman have both said is missing.Summary:Sources cited by Jiji say the Bank of Japan may consider an additional interest rate increase at its September 17-18 policy meeting, following a rate hike in June.The sources cite rising risks of higher inflation as the reason for considering further tightening.Other recent reports noted that odds of a September hike were boosted following a hawkish Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's July meeting.A separate report from the prior day suggested the BoJ could face pressure to act in September given the recent joint Japan-US yen intervention. The Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates again at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17 and 18, according to informed sources cited by Jiji, a move that would follow the central bank's rate increase in June. The sources pointed to rising risks of higher inflation as the key factor behind the possible additional tightening.The report adds to a build up of signals in recent days pointing toward increased odds of a September move. Other reporting has noted that expectations for a hike next month were already boosted following a hawkish Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's July policy meeting, suggesting internal debate within the Bank has been shifting in a more hawkish direction even before this latest report.A separate report from the previous day added a further dimension to the case for September action, suggesting the BoJ could face pressure to move given the recent joint intervention conducted alongside the United States to support the yen. That framing implies the Bank may feel some obligation to back the intervention with genuine policy tightening, rather than allow the currency support delivered through intervention to stand unsupported by fundamentals.Taken together, the reporting builds a more coherent picture of a Bank of Japan that is increasingly likely to follow June's hike with another move in September, driven by a combination of inflation risk, an already hawkish tone from recent meeting minutes, and the practical pressure created by the joint intervention itself. That combination is likely to keep September rate expectations firmly in focus for yen watchers heading into the coming weeks.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korean equities extended their advance for a second straight session, with Samsung Electronics doing much of the heavy lifting even as SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution moved lower, pointing to stock specific rather than broad based sector strength. Foreign investors turning net buyers alongside a stronger won suggests some renewed appetite for Korean assets despite caution linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, though the scale of net buying was modest. The sharp jump in early month exports adds a positive underlying data point for the broader growth picture, while the finance minister's comments on leveraged ETF measures and readiness to act on volatility signal authorities remain attentive to speculative excess even as the market rallies.Note, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. --- Samsung is carrying the Kospi higher on its own for a second day, even as the rest of the chip and battery complex pulls in the opposite direction.Summary:The Kospi rose around 0.6% to roughly 6,339 points, following a similar sized gain of circa 0.65% on Monday.South Korea's exports rose circa 45% in the first 10 days of August compared with a year earlier.Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said trading in single stock leveraged ETFs has fallen since supplementary government measures were introduced, and said authorities would take all possible policy steps to reduce market volatility.Samsung Electronics rose circa 3.6%, while SK Hynix fell circa 0.4% and LG Energy Solution slid circa 1.5%.Of 908 traded issues, 512 advanced and 348 declined.Foreigners were net buyers of shares worth around 148 billion won, or roughly $104 million.The won strengthened to around 1,416 per dollar, up circa 0.2% from its previous close. South Korean shares rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, driven largely by a sharp gain in chipmaker Samsung Electronics, even as broader market sentiment remained cautious amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.The benchmark Kospi index climbed around 0.6% to trade near 6,339 points, building on a similar sized advance of circa 0.65% recorded on Monday. The gains came despite a mixed performance among the market's other heavyweight names, underscoring that Samsung's strength was doing much of the work behind the index level move.Samsung Electronics rose circa 3.6%, while fellow chipmaker SK Hynix slipped circa 0.4% and battery maker LG Energy Solution fell circa 1.5%, highlighting a divergence within the technology and battery complex rather than a broad based rally. Across the wider market, advancers outnumbered decliners, with 512 of 908 traded issues higher against 348 lower.Foreign investors were net buyers of Korean shares, adding a modest amount worth around 148 billion won, or roughly $104 million, on the day. The Korean won strengthened alongside the equity gains, quoted at around 1,416 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, up circa 0.2% from its previous close.Separately, trade data released Tuesday showed South Korea's exports rose circa 45% in the first ten days of August compared with the same period a year earlier, a strong start to the month for the export dependent economy. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol also addressed recent volatility in single stock leveraged exchange traded funds, saying trading activity in that segment has declined since the government introduced supplementary measures. He added that authorities remain prepared to take all possible policy steps to reduce market volatility going forward, a signal that officials continue to monitor speculative trading closely even as the broader market extends its gains.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The NAB survey points to an economy holding up better than feared but still operating under the shadow of elevated uncertainty, a combination that gives the RBA little reason to shift from its expected hold today. The pickup in conditions to +4, still below the long run trend of +7, alongside confidence stuck well below pre-conflict levels, supports the case for a cautious central bank message rather than a clearly hawkish or dovish one. The rise in cost pressures, particularly through transport and utilities as fuel prices swing with the renewed Gulf tensions, adds a layer of relevance for how the RBA frames near term inflation risk in today's accompanying communication. The jump in capacity utilisation and steady sales suggest underlying demand is not collapsing, which should reduce any temptation for the Bank to soften its tone on future tightening.Still ahead, RBA:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine print--- Australian businesses are managing better than feared, but confidence remains too fragile to call the uncertainty over.Summary:NAB's business conditions index rose to +4 in July from +3 in June, though it remains below the long run trend of +7.Business confidence held at -6 in July, unchanged from June and still well below levels seen in February before the US-Israeli war on Iran began.NAB said elevated uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence despite outcomes improving relative to the peak impact of the Middle East crisis.Cost pressures alongside a softer forward demand outlook are seen continuing to squeeze margins, with the transport and utilities industry a key driver of higher final prices and purchase costs amid swings in fuel prices.Employment and profitability measures picked up in July while sales were steady, and capacity utilisation rose sharply to 83.0%, led by the finance, business and property and wholesale industries.The RBA meets today and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.35% after three hikes this year, with policymakers previously warning further increases are possible if inflation does not cool as hoped. Australian business conditions improved marginally in July while confidence remained fragile, a survey published Tuesday showed, with firms pointing to ongoing cost pressures even as renewed tensions in the Gulf pushed oil prices higher again.The National Australia Bank survey showed its business conditions index rose one point to +4 in July, though the reading remains below the long run trend of +7. Confidence was unchanged at -6, still well below the level recorded in February before the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran.NAB said the survey results show elevated uncertainty has continued to weigh on business confidence, even though outcomes have improved relative to the peak impact of the Middle East crisis. The bank added that cost pressures, combined with a softer forward demand outlook, suggest margins will remain under continued pressure. Fuel price swings were flagged as a particular driver of cost pressure in the transport and utilities industry, which NAB noted was a key contributor to the rise in both final prices and purchase costs recorded in the survey.Beneath the fragile headline confidence figure, some underlying indicators showed more encouraging signs. Measures of employment and profitability both picked up in July, while sales activity held steady. Capacity utilisation rose sharply to 83.0%, a jump NAB attributed largely to the finance, business and property and wholesale industries, pointing to firmer underlying activity in parts of the economy even as broader sentiment remains subdued. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.