The Budget statement typically begins around 1230 GMT, following the end of PMQs. There will be a lot of moving parts to scrutinise but the key narrative is that UK Chancellor Reeves has a very, very tough balancing act to manage. Not only does she need to plug the £20 billion hole in public finances, she needs to reaffirm investors of her fiscal responsibility while having to keep Labour's pledge on not raising taxes on the working class as well as keeping government spending under control. And all this while already coming under intense political pressure and scrutiny over the last few months.For some context, public sector net debt in the UK now sits at 95.3% of GDP as of September - the highest in over six decades. Meanwhile, government borrowing ballooned up to £20.2 billion and that brings total borrowing in the first six months of the financial year to £99.8 billion. That is some £7.2 billion more than what the OBR had forecasted and is the second-highest total for the period since monthly records began in 1993, only seen behind that of 2020.Given Labour's manifesto commitment of not wanting to raise income taxes, Reeves will be limited in her scope to try and cover the gap. She might go down the route of introducing a "stealth income tax" i.e. freezing thresholds for a certain period of time, but that will still be rather unpopular I would presume. So, there's definitely political risk/uncertainty in choosing this route.As such, the only tax hikes we might see are ones on businesses, investments, and assets. However, that will likely draw flak from financial circles and weigh on the UK business/investment outlook. That's a net negative as well but less politically harmful to herself and Starmer.And come what may at the end of the day, it's all about whether investors and traders deem her measures to be enough to get UK public finances back on track. If not, the bond vigilantes are going to have another field day and rising gilt yields will again be a concern not just to confidence in the UK economy but the currency as well.I dived a bit into that earlier in the day here.At the same time, the perception of tighter fiscal policy i.e. tax hikes could also pressure the BOE into cutting rates at a quicker pace. So, there's that to consider and balance out in the medium-term.All in all, there's going to be plenty of moving parts here and we can only digest and make sense of it all after the fact. So, keep your eyes and ears peeled for the main event tomorrow. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Tickmill’s newly appointed Regional Manager for Latin America (LATAM), Brunno Huertas, will be a guest speaker at Finance Magnates London Summit, on November 26 (FMLS:25). Huertas has overseen Tickmill’s expansion strategy across Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking markets. With over 15 years of experience in Forex and derivatives, he has localised expertise developing strong client relationships and Introducing Broker (IB) networks throughout Latin America. At FMLS:25, Huertas will join the panel discussion ‘Educators, IBs and Regional Growth Drivers’, providing insights into building long-term, resilient relationships based on trust and transparency. He will also share learnings from Tickmill’s expansion and strategic efforts in Latin America. Bruno Huertas, Regional Manager (LATAM), commented:“Latin America is a market with unique challenges and enormous potential. Building success here requires strong IB networks, genuine relationships with clients, and a trusted brand presence. Education supports these efforts, but partnerships and client engagement remain the true growth drivers.” Tickmill’s LATAM expansionTickmill is building greater awareness in Latin America and has recently strengthened its footprint with a growing client base. Huertas played a key role in driving visibility and trust, particularly through partnerships and IB relationships, before stepping into his broader role overseeing all activity in the region this year. LATAM remains a strategic focus for the group, with Huertas leading efforts to scale presence in markets including Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, and ChileThe Finance Magnates London Summit 2025 will bring together senior executives, brokers, fintech leaders, and educators to discuss market trends, technology, regulation, and regional growth opportunities. Participation in FMLS:25 reinforces Tickmill’s commitment to knowledge sharing and fostering dialogue on the future of trading industry.About Brunno HuertasHuertas, with more than 15 years in the global brokerage sector, holds an MBA in Banking and Financial Institutions from FGV-SP. He brings deep expertise in client engagement, community building, and business growth, having supported several international brokers. At Tickmill, he successfully expanded operations in the Portuguese-speaking market and now oversees the company’s strategic development across Latin America. About TickmillTickmill has established itself as a leading provider of online trading services on a global scale since its inception in 2014. With regulation from leading regulatory authorities, including the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Seychelles, and recognition from the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) as a Representative Office, Tickmill prioritises the safety of client funds while upholding the highest standards of transparency and integrity. Composed of seasoned traders with decades of collective experience dating back to the 1980s, the Tickmill team brings a wealth of expertise to the table, having navigated various major financial markets from Asia to North America. For more information about Tickmill and its services, visit www.tickmill.com. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD regained some ground in the past days but the momentum stalled as December rate cut odds jumped following Fed’s Williams dovish comments.As of now, the December rate cut odds stand around 70% but we won’t get much data before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could provide some short-term support.On the NZD side, the RBNZ is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the OCR to 2.25%. This will lower interest rates below the central bank’s estimated neutral range (2.5%-3.5%) and therefore is expected to be stimulative. The market is pricing good chances of another cut in 2026 but if the RBNZ signals the end of the easing cycle, it could be taken as more hawkish and therefore support the New Zealand dollar, especially considering how much it has weakened in the past months. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD has been on a strong downtrend for a couple of months. We have a major trendline defining this downward momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the April lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.5850 level next.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a key resistance around the 0.5635 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the rally into the trendline.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the recent pullback. We can expect the buyers to step in around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the weekly ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence report. We will also get the September US PPI and Retail Sales reports. Tomorrow, we have the RBNZ rate decision and will also get the most recent US Jobless Claims figures. On Thursday, we have the US Thanksgiving holiday which is likely to make the final part of the week more rangebound. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Russia and China are exploring options to expand Russian oil shipments to the Chinese market, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a Sino-Russian business forum in Beijing. China and India have become Russia’s dominant energy customers since the Ukraine war began, with China currently taking around 1.4 million barrels per day by sea and another 900,000 barrels per day via pipeline.The talks come as the United States imposes new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil producers, measures Moscow has dismissed as ineffective. Despite mixed reports about future supply volumes, Russia’s overall crude exports have remained broadly stable.Novak said Moscow and Beijing are reviewing ways to increase flows, including the option of extending intergovernmental agreements that would allow Russian oil to continue moving to China through Kazakhstan for another decade, up to 2033. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese President Xi says to enhance energy partnership with Russia.Will ensure smooth energy supply chain with Russia.CCTV reporting. No surprises here. Neighbors China and Russia are friends due to their common distaste for the US.---Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday sent a congratulatory message to the 7th China-Russia Energy Business Forum This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are set to announce a memorandum of understanding on energy on Thursday.Likely related to a heavy oil pipeline running from Alberta to the British Columbia northwest coastReports are that and Alberta are close to concluding a wide-ranging framework on energy development, including a limited exemption to the existing ban on oil tanker traffic off British Columbia’s northwest coast.Carney and Smith are expected to sign an MOU to formalize the agreement More here:Carney and Smith to unveil energy deal in Calgary Thursday, source says This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan PM Takaichi says she spoke with Trump on a callsays it was Trump who proposed the callTrump explained recent US-China relations following his call with Chinese President XiHad wide-ranging exchange of views over Indo-Pacific situationI believe I was able to confirm close cooperation between Japan and USWell, dunno about you, but to me this looks like a whole of nothing from Takaichi. She isn't given us any real insight into what was discussed. ---Background to this is here:Takaichi, Trump to discuss Xi call as tensions rise over Taiwan, FNN reports This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs has rolled forward its USD/CNY forecasts but kept its underlying view unchanged: the Chinese currency should gradually strengthen over the coming year. The bank now projects USD/CNY at 6.95 in three months, 6.90 in six months and 6.85 in twelve months, arguing that the renminbi remains undervalued and supported by improving macro fundamentals.Goldman says that while China’s domestic recovery is still uneven, its external picture has started to firm, with export momentum stabilising and growth expectations turning slightly more constructive. They also highlight the People’s Bank of China’s steady hand, guiding the fixing lower in a controlled, forward-consistent manner, as evidence that policymakers are comfortable with a slow, managed appreciation path.The bank adds that the fixing’s “gradual descent,” combined with better macro indicators, supports extending their appreciation call further into 2026, reinforcing the view that the CNY is likely to grind stronger rather than deliver sharp moves. ---Goldman’s call supports a modestly stronger CNY profile, implying limited upside for USD/CNY and signalling steadier policy anchoring from the PBoC — a potential stabiliser for broader Asia FX. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. The previous close for the pair was 7.1045.PBOC injects 302.1bn yuan at 1.40% via 7-day reverse repos:after maturities today the PBOC has net drained 105.4bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to hold a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, according to FNN. The discussion is expected to focus on Trump’s recent conversation with China’s leader Xi Jinping.The call comes at a sensitive moment in regional diplomacy. Earlier this month, Takaichi warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response — a comment that drew attention in both Washington and Beijing. Trump is expected to brief her on the substance of his exchange with Xi, following rising tensions and heightened U.S.–China–Japan strategic coordination.---On Trump's call with Xi. This from the Wall Street Journal, in summary:Xi’s decision to call Trump, something he pointedly avoided throughout the trade war, reflects the shifting strategic landscape created by Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. With Tokyo preparing for a more confrontational posture toward Beijing, Xi appears to be falling back on a classic rule of Chinese political psychology: when faced with a difficult counterpart, find out who really influences their decisions. In this case, Beijing sees the United States as the ultimate power behind Japan’s security posture, making Washington the true target of persuasion.The call was therefore less about U.S.–China relations and more about shaping the boundaries of a looming Japan–China standoff. Xi is signaling that he wants clarity on how far Washington will back Takaichi’s tougher line, and Trump’s response will send a message to other world leaders watching whether the U.S. still provides firm cover for those willing to push back against Beijing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% on November 27, according to a Reuters poll in which 32 of 36 economists cited a weak currency and overheated housing market as reasons to delay easing. Economists, who previously expected a cut this month, now see the first reduction pushed into early 2026.South Korea’s stronger recent data, 1.2% GDP growth in Q3 and 2.4% inflation in October, has reinforced expectations the central bank will stay cautious after delivering 100 basis points of easing since late 2024. Most economists said the BOK will wait for clearer improvement in real estate and FX conditions.Looking further ahead, a majority expect at least one rate cut by end-March 2026, with rates seen settling around 2.25% through next year—slightly higher than October’s poll. Economists say subdued growth, a negative output gap and expected Fed easing in 2026 justify further BOK cuts once conditions stabilise. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted yesterday on Goldman Sachs expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in December, with several more reductions through 2026Goldman forecasts December Fed interest rate cut, then another in March, then June of 2026that would take the policy rate to just above 3%. Adding a little more:Chief economist Jan Hatzius warned the U.S. economy could lose momentum faster than anticipatedCould force the Fed to ease more aggressively if downside risks buildSeptember added a modest 119,000 jobs, but Goldman highlights rising layoffs as a sign that labour-market softness is becoming more persistentHatzius said the combination of weaker hiring and elevated layoff activity points to an underlying cooling that may limit the economy’s ability to absorb higher-for-longer rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is showing soume bounce now after it logged its weakest week since February, falling more than 30% from last month’s peak as macro pressure, policy uncertainty and investor repositioning hit the crypto market all at once, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.The bank cites a sharp risk-off shift across global markets, with Bitcoin increasingly trading like a high-beta tech stock due to its strong correlation with the Nasdaq-100. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added to the sell-off, after he cautioned that a December rate cut is far from guaranteed, though NY Fed President John Williams later (on Friday) delivered a more measured tone.Regulatory momentum has stalled as progress on the Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act slowed, creating uncertainty for institutional participation. At the same time, large investors have been withdrawing funds, contributing to outflows across major crypto products.Deutsche Bank also notes that long-term holders, among the earliest adopters, have begun taking profits, adding another layer of selling pressure during a period of fragile market sentiment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. equities may face more near-term pressure, but Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson says investors should treat the pullback as a buying opportunity heading into 2026.Wilson acknowledged that tensions around Federal Reserve policy and tightening liquidity have weighed on markets, but reiterated his “high conviction” in a bullish 12-month outlook. He said market behaviour has unfolded precisely as the bank warned in late September, when Morgan Stanley flagged the risk that less-dovish Fed guidance and tighter liquidity could create short-term headwinds.That tactical scenario is now playing out, with high-momentum stocks proving most sensitive to liquidity constraints and the S&P 500 reacting to the incremental hawkishness delivered at the October 29 FOMC meeting. Wilson noted that while the index is down only 5%, the underlying weakness is far deeper: two-thirds of the largest 1,000 U.S. stocks have seen drawdowns of more than 10%. That deterioration in breadth suggests the correction is closer to the end than the beginning.Morgan Stanley warns that if the Fed delays rate cuts or maintains balance-sheet tightness, the final stage of the correction could involve mega-cap leaders “catching down,” a common late-correction pattern. But Wilson views any further weakness as an opportunity to double down on the firm’s rolling-recovery thesis, pointing to soft alternative labour data as support for the Fed eventually getting “ahead of the curve on rate cuts.”Looking toward 2026, Morgan Stanley remains out of consensus, arguing the U.S. is in an early-cycle environment and forecasting 17% EPS growth next year. The bank keeps overweight positions in Small Caps, Consumer Discretionary Goods, Healthcare, Industrials and Financials, saying the resilience in earnings-revision breadth shows the sell-off is driven by liquidity—not fundamentals.---Since his note expectations for a FOMC cut in December have firmed, Daly the latest to join the cut chorus:Fed's Daly backs a December rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Information is a tech website, with the latest::Google Further Encroaches on Nvidia’s Turf With New AI Chip PushGated. In a nutshell, Google is talking to Meta and other cloud customers about letting them run Google's TPU chips in their data centers.Data centres switching to Google's chips would be a huge win for Google and loss for NVDA. In brief:Google is pushing TPUs directly into customer data centers, holding talks with Meta and financial firms as it tries to chip away at Nvidia’s dominance in AI hardware.Nvidia is countering aggressively, offering investments and deals to lock in major clients like Anthropic and OpenAI as Google’s TPU momentum grows.---Earlier:I tried Gemini 3 and it's impressive. Why it could be a gamechanger in markets This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose to 87.1prior 84.287.1 is the highest since early in September this year. ANZ cite the improvement on the week on retailer sales ahead of Black Friday. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla has been hit with a new patent-infringement lawsuit alleging the company knowingly used protected robotics technology in its Autopilot and self-driving systems.Info via Reuters.The suit, filed in federal court in Alexandria, Virginia on Monday, comes from Perrone Robotics, whose founder Paul Perrone claims to have developed a general-purpose robotics operating system designed to work across multiple automated platforms—solving the earlier challenge of needing bespoke hardware and software for each vehicle.Perrone alleges that all Tesla models equipped with any version of Autopilot over the past six years infringe five of the company’s patents. One of those patents was reportedly offered to Tesla for purchase in 2017, according to the filing.The complaint seeks unspecified damages and an injunction to stop further use of the contested technology. Tesla did not immediately comment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. has pressed the U.K. to take a harder line on Chinese involvement in critical infrastructure, warning that Chinese firms pose growing national-security risks across the Five Eyes network. A senior U.S. official said Britain should adopt a “zero-trust” stance toward Chinese companies in strategically sensitive sectors and move toward blanket exclusion. Info via the UK Telegraph The intervention follows an MI5 alert over Chinese espionage and renewed scrutiny of Chinese shareholdings in major U.K. assets, including Heathrow Airport. U.S. officials also highlighted China’s rapidly advancing cyber operations, citing the “Salt Typhoon” and “Volt Typhoon” breaches as evidence that Western infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable.Washington is urging a more coordinated response among Five Eyes partners, arguing that fragmented national policies leave gaps Beijing can exploit. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P Global said Canada’s economy is poised to expand over the next few years as business conditions begin to improve, even as several structural challenges remain in place.The ratings agency expects Canada’s unemployment rate to gradually decline in 2026, reflecting a slow recovery in hiring and firmer domestic demand. However, S&P warned that core inflation is likely to stay elevated, suggesting price pressures will remain sticky despite progress in headline inflation.S&P also flagged weak business investment as an ongoing drag on Canada’s growth outlook. It noted that already-soft investment trends are now being compounded by new U.S. tariffs, which risk further depressing corporate confidence and capital spending.Overall, S&P said Canada is entering a period of moderate economic expansion but still faces headwinds that could limit the pace and durability of the rebound. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.