Barclays expects the US dollar to maintain positive momentum into 2026, supported by improving risk sentiment and a robust domestic investment outlook. In a research note, the bank says the dollar has proven resilient even as markets grapple with uncertainty over AI valuations, corporate earnings and the returns on large-scale investment spending.argues that massive US artificial-intelligence capital expenditure plans will be “economically, geopolitically and competitively transformational” for the currency,AI-driven investment cycle, it says, should bolster the dollar through stronger productivity, higher growth potential and sustained global demand for US technology and infrastructure,adds that easing concerns over Federal Reserve independence, reduced tariff risks and ongoing fiscal support all reinforce its constructive USD view. Together, these factors create conditions for continued dollar strength and a more stable backdrop for risk assets heading into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reports are that the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened to support the rupee before the local spot market opened on MondayReuters cite four trader sources. said that the central bank had likely stepped in the spot and non-deliverable forwards market to support INRThe rupee has fallen more than 4% YTD 2025. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Barclays Research says next month’s Federal Reserve decision remains a close call, but Chair Jerome Powell is still positioned to tilt the Federal Open Market Committee toward a rate cut.In its assessment of recent public remarks, Barclays sees a split emerging inside the committee. Governors Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller appear inclined to support a cut, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid are leaning toward holding policy steady.Speeches from Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Boston President Susan Collins suggest they remain undecided but slightly skewed toward a hold. Governors Lisa Cook and John Williams remain data-dependent but appear marginally more open to cutting, the bank said:before considering Powell, six voters seem to be leaning toward a hold and five toward a cutPowell will ultimately determine the outcome, noting that it would take a very high bar for the Board of Governors to dissent against the chair. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Shares of major Chinese chip makers have slid to multi-month lows.The news of note is via a Reuters report that the United States is considering letting Nvidia sell H200 chips to China.Which is weird. I had this back on Thursday (and its been popping in and out of news for moths before that):White House wants Congress to oppose export-restrictions targeting Nvidia chips to ChinaAdam followed up with renewed chatter on Friday:Trump hates to the see the market go down. There is a breaking report about Trump's team floating selling H200 Nvidia chips to China. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea sees potential to coordinate with Taiwan on how to navigate US chip tariffs, according to Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo. Speaking in a radio interview, Yeo said Taiwan is also in talks with Washington, creating scope for both export-heavy economies to secure “the most favourable treatment” through cooperation.Seoul recently finalised a deal with the United States that reduces tariffs in exchange for major South Korean investment in strategic US sectors. The agreement includes a clause ensuring that any future US tariff terms offered to another major chip exporter, widely understood to mean Taiwan, cannot be more favourable than those granted to South Korea.The comments come as US officials privately signal they may delay the long-promised semiconductor tariffs, softening a key plank of Donald Trump’s economic agenda. South Korea’s chip exports to the US have been surging, rising 51% year-on-year in October amid booming demand for AI-related semiconductors.Info via Reuters. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Early signals from Japan’s 2026 wage talks point to another solid round of pay increases, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates soon. Info via Reuters. In brief:Labour unions, including Rengo, representing seven million workers, plan to seek wage gains of 5% or more, matching the demands that produced the biggest hikes in 34 years. Even unions in tariff-hit sectors such as autos say they will maintain aggressive targets despite profit pressure from US levies.The outlook has drawn close attention after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he needs “a bit more data” on whether firms facing tariffs will still lift pay, a key condition for further tightening. Early business surveys suggest companies intend to maintain strong wage momentum, helped by a tight labour market and resilient manufacturing sentiment.Economists say firms still have room to raise pay thanks to robust profits, and many expect wage growth near or above the 5% line next year — a threshold seen as crucial for consumption and inflation. Political pressure is also increasing as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pushes for pay gains that outpace prices.Ueda said the BOJ is continuing to gather information and will evaluate the timing of a hike at upcoming meetings. Analysts expect more clarity when he speaks to business leaders on December 1, with a slim majority of economists forecasting a rate hike as early as December. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A central question emerging from Washington and Wall Street alike is whether Donald Trump could engineer rapid interest-rate cuts simply by replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in 2026. But as Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal argues, the problem isn’t the chair — it’s the votes.Timiraos notes that the Federal Open Market Committee is unusually split over the prospect of a December rate cut, and that the move is unlikely unless Powell himself insists on it. That divide, he writes, shows why a future Fed chair installed by Trump might also struggle to deliver cuts without majority backing.The Fed chair may set the agenda, but the analogy is closer to a quarterback calling a play: the rest of the team still needs to execute. The institution’s history shows that chairs don’t always control outcomes — even when presidents assume they do.Timiraos highlights the Carter-era turbulence that illustrates the point. In 1978, just months after Jimmy Carter appointed G. William Miller as Fed chair, Miller found himself in the minority as the committee voted to raise interest rates against his preference.By March 1979, the FOMC delivered another rare split decision: Miller, facing both inflation fears and recession anxieties, won a narrow 6–4 vote against raising rates — despite public pressure from Carter’s Treasury secretary, who attempted to whip votes in favour of a hike. Among the dissenters was New York Fed President Paul Volcker, who supported higher rates and would become Fed chair later that year.The archival record captures the internal tensions plainly: a committee “deeply divided over whether recession or inflation was the greater danger,” and an administration trying — unsuccessfully — to influence the vote count.Timiraos’s point is that any incoming Fed chair who attempts to rapidly cut rates could run into the same institutional reality: the chair influences policy, but cannot unilaterally deliver it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment office says artificial intelligence and broader technology themes will remain the dominant engines of global equity performance in 2026, extending the powerful run seen throughout 2025.In its latest outlook, UBS argues that the macro backdrop is turning more supportive, with global growth expected to firm in the second half of next year. The bank forecasts US GDP at 1.7%, underpinned by easier financial conditions and expansionary fiscal policy, Eurozone growth at 1.1%, and APAC growth near 5%.Despite concerns about stretched Big Tech valuations and lingering bubble fears, UBS strikes an upbeat tone:believes AI, fiscal support and monetary easing can continue to propel markets higher, even as longer-term headwinds like demographics and deglobalisation persistexpects global equities to rise about 15% by end-2026 the US, the firm favours technology, utilities and healthcare;Europe, industrials, technology and utilities; Asia, China stands out, especially its tech sector, where earnings growth is expected to surge 37% in 2026. UBS also highlights opportunities in Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and India, and maintains a positive global view on banks.On commodities, UBS sees continued support from supply constraints, geopolitical risk and the long-term energy transition. It identifies opportunities in copper, aluminium and agricultural commodities, while gold remains a useful portfolio diversifier. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 7.1050. PBOC injected 338.7bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.40%after today's maturities the net injection is 55.7bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says the long-term economic payoff from artificial intelligence is likely to far exceed the investment required — but warns that equity markets have already priced in much of that upside.In a research note, the bank estimates that the present discounted value of additional capital income generated by AI over the next 10 to 15 years could reach $8 trillion in its baseline case, with a wide range of $5–19 trillion depending on adoption speed and productivity gains. By comparison, Goldman’s projections for cumulative AI-related capital expenditure remain well below that level, suggesting a substantial net economic benefit.However, the bank cautions that the stock market may have moved too far ahead of the fundamentals. Equity valuations, especially in the US, already reflect much of AI’s potential earnings boost. That, Goldman says, is a key reason its strategists expect 10-year returns on US equities to undershoot both historical norms and the forward-looking returns of non-US markets — even though the US continues to show stronger earnings momentum and greater technological dynamism.The result is an outlook where AI promises massive long-run economic value, but investors may face more modest returns from current valuation starting points. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese markets are closed today for Labor Thanksgiving Day, which fell on November 23 (but being observed on November 24).Earlier:Japan signals greater readiness for early yen intervention - may come before 160 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The United States and Ukraine say they have developed an “updated and refined” peace framework aimed at ending the war with Russia, revising an earlier Trump administration proposal that Kyiv and European partners viewed as overly favourable to Moscow. Info via Reuters. The joint announcement came after high-level talks in Geneva led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both sides described the discussions as “highly productive” and said negotiations would continue in the coming days. Officials did not disclose details on core unresolved issues, including how to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security against future Russian aggression.Rubio told reporters that negotiators had made significant progress in narrowing outstanding questions in the 28-point peace plan put forward by President Donald Trump, though key issues — including NATO’s future role — remained under debate.European officials joined the talks after drafting their own revisions, which push back against US-proposed limits on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and reject pre-determined territorial concessions. The European version would allow Ukraine a larger military and proposes that any land-swap discussions begin from current front-line positions, not from assumptions about what territory should be considered Russian.Trump has given Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy until Thursday to respond to the US plan, which reportedly includes territorial cessions, military caps, and renouncing NATO ambitions — terms many Ukrainians view as unacceptable after nearly four years of fighting. Trump has insisted his proposal is not final.Rubio signalled that the US hopes a deal could be reached by Thursday but conceded that negotiations may extend beyond that timeline. US and Ukrainian officials are exploring a possible Zelenskiy visit to the United States, potentially as soon as this week, to discuss the most sensitive elements of the plan, though no meeting date has been confirmed. ---A revived peace framework could temporarily ease geopolitical risk premia, but unresolved territorial terms and NATO questions mean markets will remain sensitive to headline volatility around the negotiations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A majority of members on the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Monetary Policy Shadow Board are urging the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver another 25-basis-point cut at its November Monetary Policy Statement, taking the Official Cash Rate toShadow Board members said the New Zealand economy is beginning to recover from a low base but still has meaningful spare capacity, making a modest easing move appropriate to support demand. They argued that an additional small cut would help reinforce the recovery without sharply increasing inflation risks.However, a minority on the panel opposed further easing, warning that monetary policy should avoid becoming overly stimulatory at a time when inflation pressures could re-emerge. Those members favoured holding the OCR steady, emphasising caution over loosening too quickly.The RBNZ decision is due at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday November 26. Earlier:RBNZ rate cut expected this week, last one in the cycle? End of AUD/NZD bull run in sight This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to deliver a third consecutive rate cut at its December meeting.GS see moderating inflation and cooling labour-market conditions as giving policymakers room to ease further.then anticipates two additional reductions in 2026, one in March and another in Juneto bring the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.00%–3.25%baseline view is that the Fed will feel increasingly confident that disinflation is durable and that policy no longer needs to remain meaningfully restrictiveAnalysts at the firm say that the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious tone in the near term, but the trajectory of core prices and wage growth suggests that the policy stance can shift gradually toward neutral next year.Goldman also noted that financial conditions have eased meaningfully since the Fed began cutting rates, helping to stabilise corporate borrowing costs and household credit flows. By mid-2026, the bank expects the Fed to have completed its first meaningful easing cycle since the pandemic-era adjustments, keeping rates comfortably below last year’s peak but still above the ultra-loose settings of the past decade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel spoke on Saturday. Schlegel signalled that Switzerland’s exceptionally low inflation is set to pick up modestly, even as overall price growth remains comfortably within the SNB’s definition of price stability.Noted that inflation currently sits at the bottom of the bank’s 0%–2% target range but is likely to “rise slightly” over the coming quarters. (While the CPI in Switzerland has hovered close to zero for much of the year, SNB projections show Bank officials expect inflation to average just 0.2% in 2025 before edging up to 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027).Schlegel reiterated that returning to negative rates, used from 2015 to 2022, would require an exceptionally high bar. Current policy, he said, is expansionary and supportive of both inflation and economic activity.Schlegel also commented on the newly announced preliminary trade deal with the United States, which will significantly reduce tariffs on Swiss exports. But he warned that tariffs are only one contributor to the broader climate of uncertainty — a factor he called “poison for the economy.” ---A mild upward drift in Swiss inflation suggests the SNB will hold rates at zero for longer rather than re-enter negative territory, keeping downward pressure on CHF funding costs while limiting safe-haven appreciation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ES and NQ have gapped open higher on the Globex reopening.The panic selling of US stocks is over. For now at least. BTD normal service has resumed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins signalled that she remains undecided about whether to support another rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.Speaking to reporters on Saturday at the Boston Fed’s annual economic conference, Collins said she never commits to a position before entering the policy meeting itself. Her remarks follow comments earlier in the week in which she expressed hesitation about easing further in December, citing still-elevated inflation and a policy stance she views as only “mildly restrictive.”Collins reiterated that rates are not tight enough to guarantee price stability and warned that upside risks to inflation persist. Keeping policy mildly restrictive, she said, remains important to ensure inflation continues to drift lower.Collins also highlighted concerns voiced by small businesses in her district, who are grappling with higher costs and uncertainty around monetary policy. She acknowledged the labour market has cooled, but said she is watching carefully for deeper signs of weakness — particularly rising unemployment among younger, college-educated workers, a development she said carries meaningful economic implications.While noting risks on both sides of the mandate, Collins said she would take further softening in employment “very seriously.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A senior member of Japan’s government advisory panel spoke again on Sunday. He signalled that Tokyo is prepared to intervene more aggressively in the currency market to offset the economic strain caused by a weakening yen — a stance that aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s concerns about inflation.Takuji Aida, who also serves as chief economist at Crédit Agricole, said on NHK that the administration is likely to step up action in foreign-exchange markets and stressed that Japan has ample foreign-reserve capacity to do so. He described the nation’s economic position as stable enough to support intervention.Aida’s warnings build on comments he made last week, when he cautioned that FX intervention could come earlier than markets anticipate. The ¥160 per dollar level remains viewed as a symbolic threshold after authorities intervened several times in 2024, but Aida said policymakers may act sooner if volatility becomes disorderly. ---As a side note, today could be a good day for some sort of intervention with Japanese markets closed. That'll thin out trade somewhat. I think its more likely over the US holidays later this week, but we'll soon find out! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Donald Trump is preparing to unveil a broad plan aimed at curbing rising health-care costs, with an announcement expected as early as Monday, according to senior White House officials.The initiative will call on Congress to deliver legislation that prevents sharp increases in Affordable Care Act premiums — an issue the administration views as politically and economically urgent ahead of the 2026 insurance cycle.The rollout is set to take place at the White House and will feature remarks from Trump and Dr Mehmet Oz, the new administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.Info via CNBC, more here. ---Efforts to stabilise ACA premiums could influence health-insurer sentiment and volatility in managed-care stocks, while signalling a broader policy push ahead of next year’s legislative calendar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.