South Korea’s finance minister warned that officials are on high alert for speculative trading and herd-like moves in the FX market, stressing that authorities will deliver a “stern response” to any excessive volatility. Speaking at a press briefing, Minister Koo Yun-cheol said the won is reacting more sharply to uncertainty than other major currencies, driven partly by domestic structural factors and rising expectations for further weakness.Koo confirmed the government has been meeting with local brokerages to discuss FX stability and is also in contact with the National Pension Service (NPS), though no measures have been agreed. He stressed that the NPS will not be directed to intervene to support the won, adding that FX-hedging decisions for the fund’s dollar purchases remain the responsibility of its internal decision-making body.The ministry is monitoring sharp increases in overseas equity buying by local residents, but Koo offered no new action plan at this stage. Instead, he reiterated that all policy options remain on the table should market conditions worsen. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor HawksebyWon’t be disclosing votes todayFeel risks are balancedWe are in a great position to mitigate risksCentral projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026See signs labour market stabilisingWe’re now seeing economic indicators picking up across all high frequency indicatorsCurrent cash rate supportive and stimulatoryHas been a challenging year for economyWe retain full optionality on cash rateEvery option on the tableWe are a bit worried about inflation risks globallyThe RBNZ cut tis cash rate by 25bp, which is expected by most in the marekt to be the final rate cut of the cycle. Indeed, Hawkseby says above the Bank's forecasts are based on being on hold through 2026. The NZD rose after the RBNZ decision based on expectations that rate cut cycle is over. I gave a heads up to this earlier this week:RBNZ rate cut expected this week, last one in the cycle? End of AUD/NZD bull run in sight---Earlier:RBNZ cuts its cash rate by 25bp, as widely expectedNZD jumped after the RBNZ interest rate reduction decision This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Info here:BOJ ramps up signals for near-term rate hike as yen weakness and politics shiftFits with what we had earlier:BOJ board turns more hawkish as Ueda keeps December and January openHas sent USD/JPY and yen crosses lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Bank of Japan is signalling more clearly that a near-term rate hike is back on the table, with officials reviving hawkish language as the yen weakens and political resistance to tightening fades. Sources familiar with the bank’s thinking told Reuters that the BOJ has intentionally shifted messaging in recent days to highlight the inflationary risks of a persistently weak yen, reinforcing that a December hike remains a live option.The change follows a meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Governor Kazuo Ueda, which appeared to remove immediate political objections to further tightening. While the decision between a December or January move is still finely balanced—and could be swayed by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision a week earlier—officials increasingly see the yen’s decline as structural, with more lasting upward pressure on prices.A growing number of board members have joined the hawkish camp. Junko Koeda said real rates must keep rising, while Kazuyuki Masu described the timing of a hike as “nearing.” Both are now seen as potential supporters of a move to 0.75%, aligning with two earlier dissenters. Even Ueda has shifted tone, saying the board will debate the “feasibility and timing” of a hike in coming meetings—departing from his prior reluctance to guide on timing.The BOJ has held rates at 0.50% since January, partly out of caution over the U.S. tariff shock. But the economic justification for waiting is shrinking: the impact of tariffs has been limited, early wage-settlement signals are firming, and the yen’s renewed drop has strengthened the case for tightening. Takaichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama have offered no objection to further normalisation, easing political constraints.Investors remain divided. A Reuters poll shows a slim majority expecting a hike at the December 18–19 meeting, with all surveyed economists projecting a move to 0.75% by March. But the timing could depend on the Fed. A hawkish Fed stance could push the yen weaker and pressure the BOJ into a December move; a Fed cut could ease yen pressures but raise questions about global demand and BOJ sequencing.For now, analysts say the BOJ’s communication shift is deliberate: a reminder that Japan’s era of ultra-low rates is ending and that policymakers have a “real desire to normalise” despite political noise. ---Bloomberg had a similar message earlier:BOJ board turns more hawkish as Ueda keeps December and January open This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is accelerating an enormous, economy-wide push to fuse artificial intelligence with manufacturing in an effort to preserve its position as the world’s factory floor. While Beijing still aims to compete with U.S. tech giants in frontier AI, its near-term priority is industrial survival—boosting output, cutting labour needs, and keeping exports competitive despite rising costs, tariffs and labour shortages.An eye-opening piece in the Wall Street Journal (gated), in summary here. I've bolded a few of the points. AI is being deployed aggressively across China’s factories — from clothing design and washing-machine assembly to steelmaking, electronics and cement production.Automation is scaling fast: “dark factories,” automated ports and AI-controlled production lines are appearing nationwide.China is installing more industrial robots than any country, 295,000 last year, nearly 9× the U.S., and more than the rest of the world combined.Of 131 factories and industrial sites recognized by the World Economic Forum globally for lifting productivity through cutting edge technologies such as AI, 45 are in mainland China, while three are in the U.S.Labour shortages and rising wages make automation a necessity.AI is already boosting productivity: faster design cycles, shorter inspection times, 24/7 unmanned operations and efficiency gains in key industries like steel, cement and home appliances.Beijing sees AI-powered manufacturing as strategic, crucial for national competitiveness and resilience amid geopolitical pressure and U.S. tariffs.The political environment allows rapid deployment of automation, with minimal union resistance and strong state support.China still lags in frontier AI chips, but advantages lie in deployment scale, manufacturing ecosystems and high public acceptance of AI.---China’s rapid deployment of industrial AI could reshape global supply chains, boosting its manufacturing competitiveness even as Western economies try to reshore production. The scale and speed of China’s automation push may widen cost and productivity gaps with the U.S. and Europe. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 7.0845more to come PBOC injects 213.3bn yuan at 1.40% via 7-day reverse repos This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ cut its cash rate target:RBNZ cuts its cash rate by 25bp, as widely expectedto 2.25% from 2.5%This was the third consecutive cut and is widely expected to the be the final cut of the cycle. The RBNZ expected that ahead shows no further cuts:sees official cash rate at 2.25% in March 2026 (PVS 2.55%)sees official cash rate at 2.28% in December 2026 (PVS 2.62%)I posted earlier this week on expectations this would be the last, a tailwind for the NZD:RBNZ rate cut expected this week, last one in the cycle? End of AUD/NZD bull run in sight This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a third consecutive rate cut. Many expect this to be the last of the cycle.Indeed, from the RBNZ path ahead outlook:sees official cash rate at 2.25% in March 2026 (PVS 2.55%)sees official cash rate at 2.28% in December 2026 (PVS 2.62%)For the statement:Annual consumers price inflation increased to 3 percent in the Septemberquarter.Future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-termHowever, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected Tofall to around 2 percent by mid-2026.Risks to the inflation outlook are balancedEconomic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking upLower interestrates are encouraging household spending, and the labour market is stabilisingRisks to the inflation outlook are balancedThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest minutes show policymakers remain focused on how medium-term inflation and overall economic momentum evolve, noting that future moves in the official cash rate will hinge on these factors.The committee discussed two options at the meeting: holding the OCR at 2.50% or cutting it to 2.25%. While some members argued that rates had already been reduced substantially, others highlighted that a further cut would support consumer and business confidence and guard against the risk of a slower-than-desired recovery.Those pushing for another reduction pointed to significant excess capacity across the economy and the persistence of spare capacity, suggesting further easing was warranted.In the end, the committee voted 5–1 to cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, emphasising that monetary policy still needs to work to stabilise demand and keep the inflation outlook on track.---Background to this here:RBNZ rate cut expected this week, last one in the cycle? End of AUD/NZD bull run in sightNZIER Shadow Board majority recommends a 25bp RBNZ OCR cut to 2.25% this weekNZDUSD Technical Analysis: Last RBNZ rate cut could boost the NZDNewsquawk Week Ahead: US Retail Sales, RBNZ, UK Budget, Australian CPI, Tokyo CPI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Australian inflation data was scorching, headline and underlying are both above the top of the RBA target band:Australia CPI (October) 0.0% m/m (-0.2% expected) & 3.8% y/y (3.6% expected)headline 3.8% y/y (!) and core 3.3% y/ythe RBA band is 2-3%services inflation is 3.1% and goods 4.3%There is no way the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to be considering interest rate cuts. With rising numbers why not rate hikes (this question will make me very unpopular indeed). AUD jumped but has since come back. These numbers will be supportive, at the margin.---There was data also for Q3 construction work, which contracted by 0.7%vs +0.3% expected This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian inflation data for October 2025.Headline inflation is hotter than expected at 0% m/m vs. -0.2% expectedand 3.8% y/y vs. 3.6% expected and an RBA target band of 2-3%Core inflation is ugly, Trimmed mean 3.3% y/yexpected 2.9%+0.3% m/mthe other core measure, Weighted Median is 3.4% y/y (expected 2.95%)You can forget about rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia with data like this. more to come---The monthly data has now taken on the role as the official inflation rate, replacing the quarterly release. From the Australian Bureau of Statistics:the complete Monthly CPI as Australia’s primary measure of headline inflation‘The complete Monthly CPI will enable earlier detection of shifts in inflation and provide better information for policy decisions that affect all Australians.’ complete Monthly CPI release will include monthly seasonally adjusted and Trimmed mean indexes alongside comprehensive breakdowns of inflation datamore to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump on Ukraine:We are making progressUkraine is happyEurope will be largely involved in security guaranteesInitial 28 point plan was just a mapWitkoff will be meeting with Putin in Moscow next weekRussians are making concessionsNo deadline for reaching deal---The prospect of a peace deal has been cited as a reason for heavy oil prices (due to the likelihood of releasing more supply). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Services PPI data for October 2025, seen as a leading indicator of Japan's consumer services sector prices.prices continued to rise for labour-intensive industries such as hotel and construction workunderscoring the central bank's view a tight job market will keep pushing up wages and service-sector inflationThis'll keep the BoJ pondering rate hikes:BOJ board turns more hawkish as Ueda keeps December and January open This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Re the Singapore dollar, supported by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would make U.S. fixed-income assets less attractive and ease demand for the greenback. MUFG Bank said market sentiment has tilted toward risk-on, helped by rising confidence that the Fed could cut rates as early as December.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added to that momentum, signalling support for lower interest rates and warning of downside risks to the labor market. MUFG noted that Daly’s public views often align closely with those of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, strengthening the market’s conviction that policy easing is approaching. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HP is making a major push into artificial intelligence and expects the shift to fundamentally reshape its workforce. CEO Enrique Lores told Yahoo Finance that many tasks currently performed by employees will eventually be done “better and faster” by AI, calling the transition an industrywide reality that companies must adopt to stay competitive.As part of that transformation, HP on Tuesday launched a broad AI initiative tied to a new restructuring program. The company plans to cut 4,000 to 6,000 jobs globally and aims to deliver US$1 billion in annualised savings by fiscal 2028. Lores said HP is now moving from experimental pilots to full-scale deployment of AI across the business, using the technology to speed up product development, improve customer service and raise internal productivity.HP’s AI efforts extend well beyond chatbots, he said, citing AI agents that automate workflows, AI-assisted software development and systems designed to accelerate operational processes. The restructuring will cost about US$650 million, including roughly US$250 million in fiscal 2026.---The restructuring underscores how AI-driven cost efficiencies are reshaping tech-sector business models. While the plan boosts HP’s long-term margin outlook, investors will watch whether the job cuts and AI investments translate into sustained revenue growth.---HP reported mixed results for the latest quarter:HP Q4 revenue beats; 2026 EPS guidance trails, 4k-6k jobs to go This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deutsche Bank has set one of the most bullish targets on Wall Street for next year, projecting the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by the end of 2026. The bank says equity positioning, which snapped back sharply after the April selloff, has since slipped back to underweight—creating room for investors to rebuild exposure and potentially fuel further upside.The bank argues that while market narratives remain fixated on how many Federal Reserve rate cuts are still to come, equity performance is being driven less by the level of interest rates and more by the volatility of rates. Lower rate volatility, Deutsche Bank says, tends to unlock stronger equity inflows, support higher valuations and stabilise risk appetite across sectors.With positioning light, rate volatility easing, and the macro backdrop expected to improve, Deutsche Bank sees scope for the S&P 500 to extend its multi-year advance into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan expects the Swiss franc to weaken against the euro in 2026, arguing that a brighter European growth outlook should finally begin to show up in FX pricing. The bank notes that EUR/CHF typically moves in line with Europe’s growth momentum, yet this year’s upward revisions have not been reflected in the currency.Analysts say confirmation of stronger activity in upcoming hard data—or further upgrades to the growth outlook—should put downward pressure on the franc. They add that Switzerland’s low yields and the franc’s traditional safe-haven role could also work against it if global growth remains resilient, reducing demand for defensive currencies.JPMorgan forecasts EUR/CHF at 0.95 in Q1 2026, rising to 0.96 by Q4. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Investors pushed two of the market’s biggest artificial-intelligence names in opposite directions on Tuesday, highlighting shifting sentiment inside the AI trade. Alphabet rose more than 1%, extending a months-long rally that has brought the Google parent closer to a US$4 trillion valuation, powered by optimism around its AI tools, cloud services and growing chip capabilities. Via Wall Street Journal summary. In contrast, Nvidia shares fell 2.6%, adding to a slide that has pulled the world’s largest company by market value further below the US$5 trillion mark it reached only weeks ago.The divergence came after reports that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, one of the few viable alternatives to Nvidia’s industry-dominant processors. That news underscored the competitive pressures facing Nvidia and sharpened concerns already building among investors about circular AI spending, capital intensity, and rising rivalry within the sector.This month’s performance gap reflects that unease: Alphabet is up about 15%, while Nvidia is down roughly 12%, as investors reassess leadership in the next phase of the AI boom. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deutsche Bank expects the euro to strengthen meaningfully over the next two years, projecting EUR/USD to reach 1.25 by end-2026, up from around 1.1560 currently. In its year-end FX outlook, the bank argues that a combination of improving global growth, a cyclical recovery in Europe led by Germany, and the possibility of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal should help the euro break above 1.20 during 2026.The analysts also note that the euro’s external position remains solid, providing an additional cushion. A key condition, however, is that undervalued Asian currencies—especially the yen and yuan—stage a recovery, which would push the dollar lower and create room for the euro to advance. Deutsche Bank adds that reserve managers may increasingly view the euro as a safe-haven alternative, offering another source of potential upside. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.com:--Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude +0.05 mn barrelsDistillates +0.6 mn bblsGasoline +0.7 mn---This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut down permitting.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.