New Zealand November business confidence 67.1%, the highest in 11 yearsprior 58.1%Business activity 53.1%, the best reading in more than 10 years.prior 44.6%New Zealand posting solid numbers yet again. Inflation signals were mixed. The share of firms planning to raise prices in the next three months increased from 44% to 51%, the highest since March. However, the proportion expecting cost increases dipped slightly to 74%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 2.7%.---Earlier:RBNZ’s Hawkesby says policy now stimulatory but warns on global independence risksNew Zealand Q3 retail sales show huge jump, much improved from Q2The news from yesterday has lifted the NZD:investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budget This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan is preparing to significantly expand short-tenor bond issuance to help fund its latest economic stimulus package, according to officials speaking to Reuters. The government plans to boost issuance of two- and five-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs), lifting total scheduled JGB sales for the fiscal year through March by roughly ¥7 trillion from the current ¥171.8 trillion target. Longer-dated supply, 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds, will remain unchanged.The revised funding plan also includes an additional ¥6 trillion in treasury discount bills to strengthen near-term financing capacity. Monthly issuance of two- and five-year JGBs is expected to rise by ¥100 billion each from January. The proposal will be presented to primary dealers on Thursday before going to cabinet for approval on Friday, alongside the extra budget tied to the stimulus programme. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump privately urged Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to soften her rhetoric toward China after she came out forcefully on Taiwan. According to people familiar with the call, Trump encouraged Takaichi to “lower the tone” in order to avoid inflaming tensions with President Xi Jinping at a delicate moment in U.S.–China–Japan relations. The exchange underscores the geopolitical sensitivity surrounding Taiwan, where Japan’s vocal support has drawn Beijing’s ire, and highlights Washington’s ongoing efforts to manage allied messaging as it navigates its own strategic competition with China. ---Some background on this for weeks ago, this issue is not going away:China State Media: China Pres. Xi and US Pres. Trump held call This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deutsche Bank has lifted its 2026 gold forecast, citing a rare alignment of structural and technical forces that continue to push the metal beyond historical patterns. The bank now expects gold to reach US$4,450/oz in 2026, up from its previous US$4,000/oz projection, and sees the trading range widening to US$3,950–4,950/oz. Analysts said gold’s performance is increasingly breaking from long-standing norms, noting that its outperformance relative to the US dollar now rivals a record set only last year. They also highlight that the projected 2025 trading range is the widest since 1980, a signal of elevated two-way volatility and persistent structural demand.Deutsche Bank points to several supportive factors. Investor flows have stabilised, technical signals suggest the positioning clean-out is complete, and third-quarter supply-demand data shows central banks remain significant net buyers. Structural demand remains “inelastic,” the bank said, with continued reserve-manager accumulation and ETF allocation diverting supply away from jewellery markets at a time when overall demand continues to outpace available supply.However, the bank emphasised that risks remain. Gold’s tendency to trade positively with risk assets means a deeper equity-market correction could be damaging. Deutsche Bank’s house view also anticipates less Fed easing in 2026 than markets expect (–50bps versus –93bps), which would temper the bullish case. A negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war could temporarily weigh on prices, and reserve managers may eventually slow their pace of buying. Historically, sharp increases in real gold prices have often been followed by significant retracements. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said the central bank is now more confident that monetary policy has shifted firmly into stimulatory territory after a series of substantial cash-rate cuts. Speaking on Thursday, NZ time, he suggested the economic recovery could come through “faster and stronger” than previously expected, while acknowledging the downside risk that households and businesses remain overly cautious into late 2025 and early 2026.Hawkesby also raised concerns about a global trend toward eroding central-bank operational independence, warning that diminished autonomy could leave inflation less controlled worldwide. Domestically, he noted that the New Zealand dollar continues to function as a shock absorber, helping cushion the economy through external volatility. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HSBC expects OpenAI to remain unprofitable until at least 2030, warning that the company will need an additional US$207 billion to fund its rapidly expanding compute footprint. While the bank analysts project OpenAI’s revenue could exceed US$213 billion by the end of the decade, it argues that infrastructure demands will vastly outpace cash generation.HSBC estimates OpenAI’s compute commitments could swell to US$1.4 trillion by 2033. Between now and 2030, the analysts model roughly US$792 billion in cloud and AI-infrastructure costs, including about US$620 billion in data-centre rentals alone. The team, led by Nicolas Cote-Colisson, said OpenAI’s growth trajectory confronts “soaring infrastructure costs,” intensifying competition and an AI landscape that is “cash-intensive beyond any technology trend in history.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan has reversed its stance on U.S. monetary policy and now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the December meeting. Chief US economist Michael Feroli said recent remarks from senior Fed officials, especially New York Fed President John Williams, point clearly toward a near-term easing move. The bank had previously forecast no change after the delayed September jobs report muddied the signal.JPMorgan now expects quarter-point cuts in both December and January. Feroli noted that the latest round of Fedspeak “tilts the odds” toward action, aligning the bank’s view with market pricing, where swaps imply roughly a >80% chance of a December cut. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Soaring NZ retail sales for Q3 2025.New Zealand Retail Sales +1.9% q/qexpected +0.6%, prior +0.5% New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly vs. Year Ago +4.5% prior +2.3%Signs of a New Zealand economy getting off the canvas has been welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank pushed the door shut on further rate cuts in is statement/minutes/conference yesterday. Barring a return to poor economic performance, of course. The new Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Dr Anna Breman, will begin on 1 December 2025. She's walking into an improved situation. ---The NZD remained firm on Wednesday trade in Europe and US after jumping here in Asia after the RBNZ announcement:investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budget This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US indices close higher for the 4th consecutive dayCarney to meet Trump at World Cup draw as Canada-U.S. trade talks remain frozenRBNZ Hawkesby: We are in a position where we can sort of watch and see how things progressNZ Finance minister names Rodger Finlay chair of the RBNZTwo military personnel shot near the White House according to ABC NewsCrude oil futures settle at $58.65Federal Reserve minutes from the November meeting:Little changed since the previous reportBaker Hughes oil rig count -12 to 407Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 3.9% from 4.0%US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage 6.23% vs 6.26% last weekMajor European's indices close higherThe US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 3.781%ECB's Lane: For sustainability of inflation at 2%, needs to see deceleration of energy pxCrude oil inventories build of 2.774 million versus estimate 0.055 millionTech sector rallies: Nvidia leads the charge, Google stumblesECBs Vujcic: It has become more difficult to forecast food inflation due to climate changeUS Durable goods orders for September 0.5% versus 0.3% estimateUS initial jobless claims 216K vs 225K expectedinvestingLive European markets wrap: Another UK budget fiascoUK chancellor Reeves: There will be no return to austerityThe US Dollar traded mostly lower against most major peers today (with the notable exception of the Yen), as risk appetite returned to the markets and specific domestic catalysts drove outperformance in the New Zealand Dollar and British Pound.1. The RBNZ Shock: A "Hawkish Cut" (NZD +1.32%)The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) was the undisputed top performer of the day, surging 1.32% to 0.5694.The Catalyst: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as widely expected.The Twist: Despite the cut, the move was interpreted as "hawkish" because the RBNZ explicitly signaled that the easing cycle is effectively over. Governor Christian Hawkesby’s committee indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, defying market expectations for deeper cuts.Market Reaction: This "one-and-done" signal forced a massive repricing of interest rate expectations, triggering a short squeeze that propelled the Kiwi significantly higher against the Greenback and the Aussie.2. Sterling and the Budget (GBP +0.49%)The British Pound (Cable) staged a solid recovery, rising 0.49% to 1.3231, as markets reacted positively to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget.Budget Summary: The Chancellor delivered a "growth-focused" budget that avoided the worst-case tax scenarios feared by the City. Key points included:No new bank taxes: A decision to avoid a fresh tax squeeze on the banking sector reassured investors.Fiscal Headroom: The release (inadvertently leaked early by the OBR) revealed a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer, signaling fiscal responsibility alongside investment.Lack of 2026 Tax Hikes: The absence of aggressive future tax hikes for the coming year calmed "budget jitters."Market Reaction: The combination of fiscal prudence and growth initiatives triggered a relief rally. Gilt yields eased, and the Pound moved higher as the "uncertainty risk premium" that had weighed on the currency in recent weeks evaporated.3. Broader Currency MovesUSD/JPY (+0.27% to 156.46): The Yen was an outlier, weakening slightly against the Dollar. This move largely reflects improved global risk sentiment (equity markets recovering, fueled by reports of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework), which reduced demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. The lower JPY also occurred despite expectations that the BOJ may look to raise rates in reaction to the weaker JPY. Well the JPY was weaker today. USD/CAD (-0.41% to 1.4038): The Canadian Dollar strengthened (pushing USD/CAD lower) despite oil prices testing key support levels. The Loonie likely benefited from the broad weakness in the USD and positive cross-border trade sentiment.AUD/USD (+0.76% to 0.6516): The Australian Dollar rallied in sympathy with the NZD and benefited from the overall "risk-on" tone in global markets.Fundamentally and other market data.US initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations that 216K vs 225K last week. No noticeable slowdown in the weekly claims.US durable goods came in stronger than expectations, but it was for the month of September as they catch up continuesCrude oil inventories showed a greater than expected build of inventories. Despite the build, will prices are higher in the day by $0.63 at $58.58Gold prices moved higher by $34 or 0.83% at $4164Silver soared by $1.80 or 3.5% to $53.25Bitcoin rose sharply by $3000 or 3.3% to $90299 (see post here). The high price reached $90,445. The next target comes in at $94,229 (the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 27 swing high).US stocks moved higher led by the NASDAQ index up 0.82%. The S&P index rose 0.69% and the Dow industrial average rose 0.67%.US yields were mixed with the two-year up to basis points at 3.479%. The 10 year yield was down 0.8 basis points and back below the 4.00 level at 3.994%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bank of America has turned more cautious on U.S. equities, predicting only modest gains for the S&P 500 through 2026. The bank sees the index rising to around 7,100, roughly a 5% increase, as stretched valuations are likely to compress even as earnings continue to grow. BofA expects profits to rise about 14% but notes that liquidity tailwinds are ebbing due to softer buyback activity, heavier capital-expenditure plans and limited room for further central-bank easing.The forecast includes a wide potential trading range of 5,500 to 8,500, underscoring elevated uncertainty. BofA also expects a shift in market leadership, favouring capex-driven sectors and blue-collar themes over consumption and white-collar exposure. The bank upgraded Staples to Overweight and cut Consumer Discretionary. On AI, it warns that monetisation may prove slower than hoped and that the industry faces near-term constraints, including surging power requirements. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing higher led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 0.82%. Looking at the closing levels:Dow industrial average is up 314.67 points or 0.67% at 47427.12S&P index is up 46.73 points or 0.69% at 6812.61NASDAQ index is up 189.10 points or 0.82% at 23214.69.The indices are up for the 4th consecutive day helped by a shift in the Fed bias led by comments from near Fed Pres Williams. The odds of a Fed rate cut moved up from about 35% last week to close to 85% this week. The Fed interest rate decision will take place on December 10. The Fed will enter their blackout period at the close on Friday. J.P. Morgan is now saying that they expect the Fed to cut in December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington next week for the 2026 World Cup draw, where he expects to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. Carney said the pair spoke briefly on Tuesday, but noted that trade negotiations remain stalled. Talks were halted last month after Ontario aired an advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan warning that tariffs can trigger trade wars and economic damage. Carney said discussions on reviving the trade agenda in key sectors have not restarted. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Both NZD and AUD were swung around by events in Asia yesterday, the Kiwi from the RBNZ rate cut and the Aussie by surging inflation:investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ)The data from NZ and Oz won't impact as much, but I'll keep an eye on the releases and post thier implications. With the US out now for a holiday Thursday that'll somehow stretch into a slack Friday and a long weekend Asian traders will be reluctant to punt too heavily during the session here. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBNZ Gov. Hawkesby is on the wires saying:We think we are in a position where we can put out an OCR projection, which is broadly unchangedWe are in a position where we can sort of watch and see how things progress over the course of next year. There are a number of labor market indicators that are starting to pick up.Our indicators are telling is now that the economy expanded through Q3Recovery in economy is happening right nowover 2nd half of this year, annualized GDP rate is running not short of 3%.High degree of confidence that over next few quarters inflation is going to be coming down.We actually need to create some inflation through stronger economic activity.The RBNZ cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled that they expect the OCR to remain at current levels through 2025. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

New Zealand's finance minister announces that Roger Finley has been appointed the chair of the RBNZFinlay joined the RBNZ Board on 1 July 2022 under the bank’s new governance model. He brings extensive governance experience. Previously he was chair of several major public and private entities, including New Zealand Post (NZ Post), PGG Wrightson, and NZ Oil & Gas.He has served as a director or trustee of multiple companies and organizations — including being a director of Ngāi Tahu Holdings and other New Zealand and international firms. Prior to his non-executive and governance career, Finlay spent 26 years as an investment banker and fund manager in London, working with global financial houses like CS First Boston, Paribas, and UBS. His last international role reached “management-board” level. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Otago, and is a Chartered Fellow of the Institute of Directors and a Fellow of Chartered Accountants ANZ.The previous RBNZ Board Chair was Neil Quigley. On 29 August 2025, Quigley resigned with immediate effect This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD fell yesterday after stalling at its rising 100-hour moving average, and an early-Asia bounce today failed beneath the 1.4105 swing area. That inability to extend higher invited sellers back in, pushing the pair below the 100-hour moving average and through the 1.4079 swing level. Momentum accelerated into a key support zone between 1.4060 and 1.40668, which also houses the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.40623. The low held just above that at 1.40665, and a rebound briefly reclaimed the 100-hour moving average before failing once again.Price action is now caught between the 200-hour MA below (1.4062) and the 100-hour MA above (1.40966), with 1.4079 acting as a natural pivot in the middle. Until the pair can break decisively above the 100-hour MA to revive bullish momentum—or fall below the 200-hour MA to tilt the bias lower—traders are likely to continue probing this range, waiting for the next directional shove. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tech Sector Rallies as Nvidia Leads, Google StumblesThe US stock market saw a notable shift today, with the technology sector dominating the headlines. As the trading day unfolded, Nvidia emerged as a star performer, while Google faced some challenges, setting the stage for an intriguing day in the market.? Technology Sector: Nvidia Lights the WayNvidia (NVDA): Nvidia stole the spotlight with a significant rise of 2.26%, bolstering the semiconductor sector's performance. This surge reflects strong investor confidence in Nvidia's market position and future prospects.AMD (AMD) & Micron (MU): Following Nvidia's lead, AMD and Micron showed gains of 2.02% and 2.82% respectively, signaling robust interest in the semiconductor space.Oracle (ORCL): Breaking away from software trends, Oracle posted a remarkable gain of 5.69%, reinforcing investor optimism around its cloud and infrastructure advancements.? Communication Services: Google Faces HeadwindsGoogle (GOOGL): In contrast, Google saw a slide of 0.90%, highlighting investor concerns or profit-taking, amidst broader positive sentiment in the sector.Meta (META): Showing stability, Meta experienced a slight uptick of 0.09%, indicating a neutral stance from investors.? Mixed Signs in FinancialsJPMorgan Chase (JPM) & Visa (V): The financial sector displayed mixed results, with JPMorgan Chase up by 0.27%, while Visa saw a minor dip of 0.17%, reflecting diverse investor strategies.? Market Sentiments and TrendsToday's market mood portrayed a nuanced picture. The technology sector's vigor, spearheaded by Nvidia's rally, suggests enduring investor enthusiasm despite challenges within specific stocks like Google. Conversely, the financial sector's mixed results reflect continued caution in traditional banking and credit services.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider leveraging the positive momentum in the semiconductor sector, which appears to be a focal point for growth. Technology stocks, particularly those in cloud infrastructure like Oracle, may offer robust opportunities. Meanwhile, cautious attention to communication services, especially companies facing recent dips, might yield strategic entry points. Investors are advised to maintain diversification, given the mixed performance across sectors, and stay abreast of emerging news that could sway market dynamics.For real-time updates and in-depth analyses, continue visiting InvestingLive.com to stay informed on various market aspects. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are set open higher with the S&P index up 21.5 points or 0.32%. The Dow industrial average up 117 points or 0.25%, and the NASDAQ index implying a gain of 119 points or 0.48%.Looking some of the big movers from yesterday is generally showing mixed movesMeta shares rose 3.78% yesterday. Shares are down -0.48%.Nvidia-2.59%. Shares are up 1.81% in premarket trading today.Broadcom rose 1.87% yesterday. Shares are down -1.05% in premarket trading today.Amazon rose 1.5% yesterday and is extending gains in premarket trading today up 0.72%AMD shares tumbled -4.15% yesterday but have recovered 2.34% in trading today. Microsoft rose 0.63% yesterday but is up a strong 1.96% in trading todayPalantir rose 0.80% yesterday and is up an additional 1.83% todayDell announce earnings after the close and beat expectations. There shares are up 5.5% in premarket trading today after falling -1.3% yesterday. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECB Vujcic:It has become more difficult to forecast food inflation due to climate changeThere is a risk of surprisesThe EURUSD has moved below the 200 hour moving average at 1.1559, tilting the buyers increasingly to the downside. Yesterday - and coming into the North American session - the price had broken above the 38.2% retracement of the range since the mid-October high. That level comes in at 1.1567. In the North American session today that support has been broken along with the 200 hour moving average (Green line on the chart below) at 1.15591. The price has moved back to a swing area between 1.1541 and 1.1546. Below that and traders will look toward the rising 100 hour moving average which comes in at 1.15363. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD moved lower after the budget was released early, but has now moved to new highs. Technically, the price initially moved lower, but found support buyers against its 200 hour moving average at 1.31239 (green line on the chart above). That was above the 100 hour moving average at 1.31145 (blue line). The price bounced off that low as the Chancellor presented the budget. The momentum took the GBPUSD above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-October high at 1.31855 . Short-term traders will be watching at 38.2% retracement for support now. The price of the GBPUSD has traded mostly between 1.3038 up to 1.3193 since the end of October. The high price today extended above that range and also the recent highs including the high from yesterday near 1.3213, the high from November 13 at 1.32134, and the high going back to October 30 at 1.1318. The price moved to 1.3222 before rotating back to the downside. That is a little disappointing and makes that area a key target to get above and stay above. The current price is back down testing the 38.2% retracement level. Can the buyers hold support here and keep the bullish bias intact at least in the short term? That is what will be decided in the short term today. Move back into the "red box" and we could see the buyers turn to sellers and move the price back toward the lower MAs over time. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.