Fundamental OverviewThe USD weakened across the board recently following soft ADP data and a Bloomberg report saying that Hassett emerged as the frontrunner for the Fed Chair position. The greenback was already under some pressure caused by Fed’s Williams endorsement for a December cut last Friday. The probability for a December cut is now at 76%, which generally makes it a done deal. We won’t get much data before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data, which haven’t been showing any strong improvement. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could provide some short-term support. At the end of the day though, it’s all about the FOMC decision now and the following NFP and CPI reports. On the JPY side, nothing has changed. The currency has been weakening since the last BoJ policy decision where the central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected with again two dissenters voting for a hike. There were no surprises but Governor Ueda focusing on spring wage negotiations suggested that the next hike could be delayed to January or even March 2026. The probabilities for a December hike rose a little to 33% recently as speculation of a possible hike due to the fast yen depreciation strengthened. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is bouncing near the trendline as the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into the 158.87 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 153.50 support next.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to target a break below the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 158.87 level next.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the price is trading right in the middle of the two key trendlines, so the market participants will wait for the price to come into either of those. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

People realise UK public finances are under pressureI do not accept that we are raising taxes to fund welfareWell, she can be more bold today as markets have given her some degree of confidence in terms of the initial reaction to the budget yesterday. The pound is sitting higher while the bond vigilantes are not showing up as 10-year gilt yields drop to 4.42% at the end of Wednesday. That being said, the OBR has come out to say that none of Reeves' measures in this budget "have a material affect on our forecast - either positive or negative". The body outlines that both taxes and spending are significantly higher in this budget, with the former being rather evident as the UK tax burden (or revenue if you want to look at it) set to exceed post-war highs in the coming years. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we will get just a few low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone business confidence that won't change anything for the ECB or the market. We will also have the ECB meeting minutes but that's almost never a market-moving release. In the American session, we have the US on holiday for Thanksgiving Day, so the US markets will be closed. Couple that with month-end flows and we likely get a choppy price action into the weekend.Central bank speakers:08:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)11:00 GMT/06:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/11:00 ET - BoE's Greene (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.1%This follows up from the stronger gains yesterday in matching up with Wall Street before the Thanksgiving holiday. But with the break in the US hitting, that is likely to sap overall risk sentiment across broader markets today as well. So, that's leading to the more tepid and tentative start to European trading today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -24.1German consumer morale picked up a little heading into the holidays with GfK noting that "consumer sentiment is currently at almost exactly the same level as last year". Adding that while it does "show a certain stability in consumer sentiment", the flip side is that "it shows that consumers do not expect a drastic recovery in the short-term". In terms of economic expectations, that is seen sliding back down to -1.1 from 0.8 in October. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1575 level. It doesn't tie to any technical significance and amid the lack of trading appetite with the Thanksgiving holidays, I wouldn't ascribe much impact to the expiries. We might just see relatively more muted trading conditions overall with little conviction to move in FX as the equities rebound this week hits pause.There will be more expiries to consider tomorrow but just be reminded that the Thanksgiving breather typically extends through to the weekend. Month-end flows might be a consideration though.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

If yen fall accelerates, companies may pass on higher costs down the chainFood price inflation expected to moderate but timing could be delayed if yen weakens furtherUnderlying inflation is yet to reach 2%Pace of future rate hikes will depend on incoming dataBOJ policy adjustment has been, and will remain, very cautious and not conflicting with government policyThat last line is the only thing that matters in determining which side of the fence he is on. Besides that, the other comments are not anything that we haven't heard of before. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The closer we get towards achieving price target, will see increased upside risk to inflationVarious indicators measuring underlying inflation are very slowly approaching our targetGiven rising prices, the desirable policy mix is no longer as straightforward and simple as expanding fiscal stimulus and loosening monetary policySees no gap in the view from government, BOJ that monetary support needs to be gradually adjusted to keep price rises in checkShould not necessarily wait until next year's spring wage negotiations to gauge wage trendShould not judge wage trend and movements just by next year's spring wage negotiationsBut if labour union demands are realised, it would move economy more towards conditions that BOJ hopes to achieveHe's just trying to throw out some talk that the BOJ will do what it does and not depending on the government's fiscal plans. But when it comes to walking the walk, so far we're still only seeing Takata and Tamura being the only dissenters in favouring a rate hike. USD/JPY is down today though to 155.87 currently, paring the gains from yesterday with sellers resuming near-term control now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's been a positive week for risk trades in general and that will see off investors into the Thanksgiving holiday break which starts today. The holiday typically stretches through to the weekend with US economic data releases also absent from the calendar, after having been pushed forward to yesterday.As a reminder, both the US stock and bond markets will be closed today and will only be open for a half-day tomorrow. So, that will take out a lot of the energy and animal spirits from markets over the next two days. To our US readers who are enjoying the break, have a wonderful long weekend and happy turkey day! ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FT: China aims to replace foreign imports with its own tech and dominate exportsFitch warns Japan’s new stimulus could add fiscal risk to its A/Stable ratingRecap - BoJ’s Noguchi tempers December hike bets, urges measured, step-by-step tighteningWood Mackenzie: China nearing peak oil demand as growth drops toward zero by 2027AMD Technical Analysis with Video: Bulls Defend Support After a Steep 27% CorrectionTalking innovation at the FIX Southeast Asia Multi-Asset Trading Conference 2025NAB’s Auld: RBA may need to hike rates by early 2026 as economy nears capacityBoK reveals split vote as three members signal openness to near-term rate cutsRBNZ’s Hawkesby: Further rate cuts face “high hurdle” as easing cycle endsHeadline gains mask a weaker October as China’s industrial profit recovery loses steam.BoJ’s Noguchi: Policy easing to fade only if wage gains sustain inflation momentumJPMorgan: S&P 500 could top 8,000 by 2026 with deeper Fed rate cutsPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0779 (vs. estimate at 7.0733)Bank of Korea leaves its base rate on hold at 2.5% as widely expectedAustralian data: Q3 Private Capital Expenditure headline +6.4% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected)Financial Times says "Japan needs to end its dangerous debt delusion"New Zealand November business confidence 67.1% (up from 58.1% prior)Japan to boost short-term JGB issuance by ¥7tn to fund stimulus, Reuters reportsWSJ: Trump urged Japan’s Takaichi to soften tone on Taiwan in private callDeutsche Bank lifts 2026 gold forecast to US$4,450 as structural demand strengthensRBNZ’s Hawkesby says policy now stimulatory but warns on global independence risksHSBC warns OpenAI may stay unprofitable to 2030 amid trillion-dollar compute billsJPMorgan now expects Fed rate cut in December after dovish Fedspeak shiftNew Zealand Q3 retail sales show huge jump, much improved from Q2investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budgetBofA turns cautious, sees muted S&P 500 gains as valuations and AI risks riseMajor US indices close higher for the 4th consecutive dayCarney to meet Trump at World Cup draw as Canada-U.S. trade talks remain frozenIt was another session dominated by data and central-bank commentary from New Zealand, Australia and Japan.New Zealand kicked things off with a strong set of Q3 retail sales numbers, followed by an eye-catching surge in business surveys. November business confidence jumped to 67.1%, an 11-year high, while firms’ own activity delivered its best reading in more than a decade. Fresh off Wednesday’s rate cut, the RBNZ continued reinforcing that further easing is now off the table, with Governor Hawkesby emphasising improved economic momentum in a round of post-decision media appearances. The NZD extended its gains across the session.The Australian dollar also traded higher. Australia’s Q3 capital expenditure report was exceptionally strong: new capex rose 6.4% q/q (vs 0.5% expected), the biggest increase since 2012, with plant and machinery investment hitting a record high. Analysts at one of the major banks flagged that, after yesterday’s inflation upside surprise, rate hikes may need to return to the RBA discussion in the first half of next year.From Japan, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi reiterated the need for a “measured, step-by-step” approach to policy normalisation. Importantly, he avoided endorsing growing expectations for a December rate hike, stressing instead the importance of adjusting policy only at the right moment. The yen briefly firmed ahead of his remarks but later eased on the neutral tone.China data showed industrial profits up 1.9% in the January–October period, but October alone fell 5.5% y/y, the weakest in five months, underscoring fading momentum after September’s strong rebound.US markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, reopening for a shortened session on Friday. No major data releases, Treasury auctions or Fed speakers are scheduled for the day. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +1.1%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.34% Shanghai Composite +0.49%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) flat This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Thursday’s policy decision was not unanimous, revealing that board member Shin Sung-hwan dissented. Shin argued domestic demand remains too weak to justify the board’s majority position. Rhee noted that three other board members indicated they were open to a near-term rate cut, highlighting a more divided committee as growth risks persist.Rhee said Korea’s economic growth next year is expected to be close to its potential rate, but cautioned that heightened foreign-exchange volatility remains a key concern, particularly given its potential pass-through to inflation. The remarks underscore the BoK’s delicate balancing act between managing price pressures, weak domestic demand and increasing calls within the board for earlier easing. -More:Rhee says the board is split 50:50 on whether to cut rates or hold in the near term.The forex market has been showing herd-like behaviour.FX volatility is partly due to residents’ foreign stock buying.The won is declining more than peer currencies.South Korea’s CDS premium is stable.Rhee is concerned a weaker won could push consumer prices higher.Domestic-focused companies may be hurt by a declining won.-Earlier:Bank of Korea leaves its base rate on hold at 2.5% as widely expected This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said further interest-rate cuts now face a “high hurdle,” signalling that the easing cycle is effectively finished. Bloomberg report on Hawkesby speaking an interview today after yesterday's rate cut:investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ)He said the bank’s latest projections, which leave the Official Cash Rate flat through next year with only a small implied chance of another cut, show that it would take a meaningful deterioration in the outlook to justify additional easing.Hawkesby noted the RBNZ has already delivered 325 basis points of cuts since last August and that continuing to “keep the door open” risks preventing inflation from returning to the 2% midpoint. With inflation at 3% but expected to slow toward 2% by mid-2026, he said the current stance buys the bank time to “observe and absorb” incoming data. Hawkesby also described the market reaction, a stronger NZD and higher yields, as in line with expectations.---Nothing new from Hawkesby here but a useful recap. ---NZD has continued to rise since the rate cut yesterday. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s industrial profits retreated in October after two strong months, reflecting ongoing weakness in domestic demand and the drag from softer export orders. Official data released Thursday showed profits falling 5.5% year-on-year, reversing the 21.6% surge seen in September and the 20.4% gain in August. The -5.5% was the worst in five months. Profit gains for the first ten months of 2025 stood at 1.9%, easing from the 3.2% increase recorded through September.By ownership, profits for state-owned firms were flat over the first ten months, while private companies posted a 1.9% increase and foreign firms saw a 3.5% rise.The setback is likely to reinforce calls for stronger policy support to bolster household spending and reduce the economy’s dependence on exports amid persistent tariffs and rising trade barriers.-The figures underline the structural challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy. Growth momentum has faded sharply, with third-quarter GDP slowing to its weakest pace in a year. Earlier data showed October retail sales underperformed despite an extended national holiday and the launch of Singles’ Day promotions, while producer prices remained in deflation and factory output grew at its slowest annual rate since August 2024.Beijing has signalled a shift toward prioritising consumption over the next five years, though it has avoided deploying broad stimulus. High youth unemployment and a prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on confidence. The data cover industrial firms with annual operating revenue above 20 million yuan. ---The data underscores patchy manufacturing momentum, offering limited support for China-sensitive commodities and adding to the argument for further targeted policy support. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said the central bank would begin to gradually dial back monetary accommodation if economic activity and prices continue to evolve in line with the BoJ’s current outlook. Speaking on Wednesday, he stressed that achieving “sustainable and stable” inflation requires a steady expansion in demand and a sustained rise in nominal wages, particularly across smaller firms and regional economies. Noguchi reiterated that the durability of wage momentum will determine whether underlying inflation can hold a steady path toward the 2% target.Although headline CPI growth is expected to ease, he warned that localised chain reactions in price increases could re-emerge — similar to the recent run-up in food prices such as rice — as supply–demand tightness prompts firms to compensate for past delays in passing through costs. Noguchi also said the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy has been limited so far.He added that if the BoJ achieves its inflation target in the latter half of its projection horizon, the bank should adjust interest rates at an “appropriate pace” to stay aligned with that timeline, signalling a gradual and data-dependent normalisation path.---JPY has been on a gradual upswing so far during the session. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan says the S&P 500 could push toward 8,000 by 2026 if the Federal Reserve delivers more rate cuts than markets currently anticipate. In its new Global Equity Outlook, the bank sees the index reaching around 7,500 under its base case, supported by strong earnings momentum, lower policy rates and easing macro pressures. The U.S. remains JPMorgan’s primary growth engine, underpinned by a resilient economy and a sustained boom in AI-related capital spending.The bank expects U.S. earnings to grow 13–15% over the next two years and argues that elevated valuations are defensible given accelerating AI investment, expanding shareholder returns and potential policy tailwinds. But JPMorgan also highlighted risks: rapid AI disruption could heighten imbalances across the economy and fuel more volatile swings in investor sentiment.---Speaking of 8,000:Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 surging to 8,000 by end-2026 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. The previous close for the pair was 7.0754PBOC injects 356.4bn yuan at 1.40% via 7-day reverse reposafter maturities today the PBOC has net injected 56.4bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Korea leaves its base rate on hold at 2.5% as widely expected (by 32 of 36 economists polled by Reuters)The weak won has cut away scope scope for further easing in SK. Also of note for policy setters at the bank are how government steps to cool Seoul's property market will pan out. BoK expects 2025 GDP growth at 1.0%.BoK expects 2025 inflation at 2.1%.BoK expects 2026 GDP growth at 1.8%.BoK expects 2027 GDP growth at 1.9%.BoK expects 2026 inflation at 2.1%.BoK expects 2027 inflation at 2.0%.BoK Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

AustralianQ3 Private Capital Expenditure Building capex rose 2.1% q/q (previous +0.2%).Plant and machinery capex jumped 11.5% q/q (previous +0.3%) takes this to a record high for spending on machinery and equipmentNew capital expenditure increased 6.4% q/q (forecast 0.5%, previous 0.2%)6.4% is the highest since 2012Australian Bureau of Statistics says its due to a big jump in spending on data centres, and on air transport investment Estimate 4 of 2025/26 investment plans upgraded 9.4% to $191bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.